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Commercial real estate’s reputation as a technology laggard is not entirely undeserved. At its core, CRE is a see-touch-and-feel industry, as much art as science. Local knowledge, intuition, and long-standing relationships continue to shape how deals get done, and that reality isn’t likely to change. Boots on the ground matter, as firsthand market insight and trust between brokers, landlords, and tenants, remain central to the business.
That context is essential when thinking about technology’s role in CRE. Tech can support and enhance decision-making, but it cannot replace the fundamentals. AI, for example, can make processes faster and more efficient, but it will not change the core of how CRE works. It will never be the tool that says, “I know a landlord who’s about to bring this space to market, and I’m getting the first look because of our relationship.”
That said, technology does have an important role to play. During COVID, when activity slowed dramatically, many organizations finally had the time to look inward and ask how technology could support faster, more resilient decision-making once the market returned. As the industry continues to invest in digital tools, three principles stand out.
Technology delivers the most value when it is guided by well-defined questions. One of the most persistent challenges in CRE’s use of technology is data fragmentation and fatigue. The industry generates enormous amounts of data, much of it spread across spreadsheets, emails, platforms, and institutional knowledge. And without knowing what you want to accomplish, that volume can quickly become overwhelming.
As shown in the chart above, for example, even when a national trend appears relatively modest, the underlying regional variation can be significant. Without a clear question guiding the analysis, it’s easy to walk away with a generic conclusion that misses where performance is actually diverging. Framed correctly, the same data becomes a tool for understanding where demand is strengthening, where it’s softening, and how strategy should differ by market.
Once the right questions are defined, the next challenge is selecting the right tools. Here again, clarity matters. There is no universal technology stack for commercial real estate. Organizations operate across different markets, asset types, and strategies, and technology needs to reflect those differences.
Thinking in terms of a recipe provides a more useful framework. The questions define the goal, and technology becomes a set of ingredients chosen to achieve it. Some tools add context, others improve precision, and others help scale insights across teams by surfacing distinct metrics and perspectives. The objective is not to find a single solution or data point that does everything, but to assemble the right combination that supports how the organization actually works.
The graph below highlights the value of layering multiple signals to understand performance. Topline visit trends offer a baseline, but adding context around visitor profile and travel patterns helps clarify what’s actually driving change. When analyzed together, these signals move analysis beyond surface-level conclusions and toward insight that can inform real decisions.
The technology best positioned to help CRE is shaped by how people actually use it. Companies that consistently learn from their users, refine inputs, expand data sets thoughtfully, and stay focused on real decision-making are far more likely to deliver lasting value.
The true test of any technology is whether it helps professionals make better decisions faster and with greater confidence while reducing risk. When insights surface quickly and are paired with on-the-ground experience and market context, data reinforces what CRE professionals already see and understand. Used this way, technology becomes a decision-support tool that facilitates de-risking and enables organizations to act at the right speed without losing sight of the fundamentals.
When analyzing mall properties, for instance, sustained weekday and weekend visit growth, paired with a broadening and increasingly family-oriented audience, can signal traffic that is more likely to endure. Identifying these deeper patterns in visit behavior helps validate assumptions, align strategy, and move forward with greater confidence, especially when paired with local market context.
As technology adoption continues, CRE leaders face an additional challenge: distinguishing between tools that meaningfully support these principles and those that generate attention without lasting value. Some technologies – like foot traffic and demographics – will become table stakes, while others will struggle to move beyond experimentation.
One area to watch is Virtual AI, including remote site visits and digital building tours. These tools may streamline early-stage evaluation and expand access, even as final decisions continue to rely on boots on the ground. Ultimately, their impact will depend on whether they reinforce the fundamentals of CRE – clear questions, practical workflows, and faster paths to confident decisions.
Since taking the reins in 2023, Gap Inc. CEO Richard Dickson has pursued a turnaround strategy aimed at reinvigorating the legacy apparel retailer, with promising results so far. Did that positive momentum carry through the end of the year? And what can location analytics reveal about the role of each of Gap Inc.’s largest banners in powering the company’s recovery?
Recent foot traffic data points to solid traffic momentum at Gap Inc. With the exception of a brief dip in December – likely driven by holiday demand pulling forward into November, along with one fewer Sunday compared to 2024 – year-over-year (YoY) company-level visits remained consistently positive over the past six months.
Throughout the period, same-store visits slightly outpaced total traffic, reflecting a more optimized fleet following the closure of several underperforming stores over the past year. Gap Inc’s robust traffic patterns also align with recent earnings commentary showing positive company-level in-store comparable sales in Q3 2025 and improving execution across Gap’s leading brands, as the company continues its strategic reset.
Looking at the company’s two largest brands shows that each is contributing to the company’s rebound in a different way. In Q4 2025, Gap slightly outperformed Old Navy on a quarterly basis, with banner-level traffic up 1.6% YoY, compared with 1.2% at Old Navy. However, Old Navy delivered more consistent monthly gains throughout the analyzed period – including in September, when Gap experienced a modest decline.
Gap’s traffic trends were notably more variable, with a stronger YoY lift in November, likely reflecting the brand’s greater sensitivity to seasonal storytelling and early holiday demand. This responsiveness was especially apparent on Black Friday, when Gap visits surged 504.4% above its 2025 daily average, compared with a still-robust but more measured 436.4% increase at Old Navy.
Old Navy’s smoother monthly performance likely reflects its role as the portfolio’s stability engine, with value-driven and replenishment trips supporting steady traffic throughout the year. Gap, on the other hand, appears to fulfill a more discretionary function, with visits responding more sharply to merchandising, marketing, and holiday timing.
Visitor behavior data for Gap and Old Navy further reinforces the two brands’ distinct positionings. Old Navy attracts longer, more frequent visits that skew toward weekdays, signaling habitual shopping tied to browsing, value-seeking, and building everyday wardrobe essentials. Gap, meanwhile, sees shorter, less frequent visits that are more likely to occur on weekends – consistent with more discretionary trips tied to seasonal needs, inspiration, or occasional splurges.
These differences between the two banners may help shape how Gap Inc. approaches its next phase of growth. In January 2026, the company leaned into “fashiontainment” with the appointment of former Paramount executive Pam Kaufman as Chief Entertainment Officer. At the same time, it has begun expanding into beauty and accessories, including the launch of Beauty Co. at 150 Old Navy locations nationwide.
As these strategies roll out, allowing them to express themselves differently across Gap and Old Navy could help maximize the strengths of each banner. At Gap, fashiontainment may lend itself to high-impact cultural moments and narrative-driven campaigns that tap into the brand’s strengths in nostalgia and storytelling – such as last year’s Better in Denim campaign featuring Katseye. At Old Navy, the same idea may be most effective through large-scale, family-friendly partnerships that reinforce its role as a dependable, mass-market destination – like the Disney collaboration launched last May. A similar dynamic could emerge in beauty, with Old Navy’s Beauty Co. supporting frequent, routine visits, and beauty at Gap reinforcing fashion authority and cultural relevance rather than driving habit.
For more insights into the consumer patterns shaping retail strategy, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The home improvement space has faced sustained pressure from macroeconomic headwinds – including persistent inflation and a cooling housing market – prompting many consumers to delay major projects and defer big-ticket purchases. But is a category turnaround in the works? An AI-powered foot traffic analysis of the sector’s largest players – The Home Depot and Lowe’s – offers insight into whether momentum has shifted and a period of growth is on the horizon.
Both The Home Depot and Lowe's reported sales growth alongside an uptick in big-ticket purchases in fiscal Q3 2025, indicating that consumers were investing in significant upgrades despite many bigger renovations remaining on the back-burner. And the latest foot traffic data suggests that this momentum likely carried forward into the subsequent months.
In November 2025, both chains saw visit and same-store visit growth of roughly 3% year-over-year (YoY) – a sign of meaningful Black Friday traffic and a healthy start to the holiday shopping season.
And while December 2025 saw modest visit gaps, these likely stemmed in part from tough YoY comparisons to December 2024’s storm-related demand.
Traffic to both chains rebounded in the new year, with preparations ahead of Storm Fern likely accounting for some of January 2026’s YoY visit gains.
Overall, the past several months of foot traffic data paint a picture of continued positive momentum for The Home Depot and Lowe’s through fiscal Q4.
Large-scale projects may not yet be at hoped-for levels, but the data suggests consumers are still investing in their homes. And with mortgage rates trending lower, housing activity showing early signs of a turnaround, and the potential for abundant home equity to fund renovations, the home improvement sector appears poised for continued growth.
Will the home improvement space build on its successes in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
E-commerce distribution centers outpaced brick-and-mortar retail chains in year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth throughout the 2025 holiday stretch. This pattern aligns with broader holiday-season data showing that e-commerce sales growth exceeded brick-and-mortar growth in 2025.
Still, physical retail continued to account for the majority of total holiday spending, and in-store visits also saw steady, positive YoY growth throughout the season. The data points to a retail environment where digital and physical channels are not competing for relevance but operating in parallel, each capturing different dimensions of consumer demand. That dynamic carried into the new year as well: January 2026 visits remained above year-ago levels for both e-commerce distribution centers and brick-and-mortar retail, rising 2.6% and 1.8% YoY, respectively.
Visits to Placer.ai’s Industrial Manufacturing Index, on the other hand, softened in January 2026, following stronger YoY momentum in December. At first glance, this decline may seem surprising: January marked a clear improvement in manufacturing sentiment, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 52.6% – its first expansionary reading in at least a year – and the Production sub-index also improving. While the ISM captures month-over-month shifts in sentiment rather than year-over-year change, a sharply improving outlook may seem inconsistent with such a steep YoY decline following a positive month.
But a closer look at the weekly data helps explain the divergence. Sentiment surveys capture outlook, orders, and expectations, while foot traffic reflects physical, on-site activity. Winter Storm Fern, which caused widespread disruptions late in the month, weighed heavily on manufacturing visits and pulled down the overall January figure. Weather events like this can meaningfully suppress foot traffic even as underlying sentiment improves – and they tend to register far more clearly in mobility data than in survey-based indicators.
Calendar effects likely contributed as well. January 2026 had one fewer working day than January 2025, a difference that can have an outsized impact on visit-based measures tied to operational and industrial activity.
Overall, the data points to an economy that ended 2025 with solid momentum across consumer-facing channels, even as early-2026 manufacturing activity reflected short-term disruption. As weather normalizes, will on-the-ground industrial activity rebound?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor for more data-driven insights into the trends shaping retail, logistics, and manufacturing.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Traditional department stores aren’t going anywhere. But over the past several years, the balance of power has shifted decisively toward retailers like off-price chains with the clearest value story. The latest signal of that shift came as Saks Global – parent of Saks Fifth Avenue, Neiman Marcus, and Bergdorf Goodman – filed for bankruptcy and began closing stores.
How wide has the gap between department stores and off-price really become? And what lies in store for the two categories in 2026?
The chart below shows just how dramatically the category split has changed since 2019. Pre-COVID, department stores held a slight edge, capturing just over half of visits to the two segments. But by 2025, that relationship had fully reversed, with off-price claiming a remarkable 62.9% share of visits. As consumers grow more price-sensitive and the retail landscape becomes more bifurcated, traditional department stores have struggled to articulate a clear competitive edge – while off-price continues to benefit from a straightforward, discovery-driven model.
Year-over-year data reinforces the structural strength of the off-price model. In Q4, the segment once again delivered solid gains, extending a winning streak that’s become harder for traditional department stores to match.
Notably, all four major off-price players expanded their footprints over the past year, and in each case overall visit growth outpaced per-location gains. Ross Dress for Less led the group with per-location visit growth ranging from 11.5% to 7.5% between October 2025 and January 2026. Some of that strength reflects easier baseline comparisons, but the scale of the gain still signals durable demand. Burlington delivered 9.4% overall visit growth even as per-location visits were essentially flat at -0.3%, a pattern consistent with rapid store expansion paired with steady interest at existing locations.
Meanwhile, T.J. Maxx and Marshalls turned in low single-digit gains while lapping a strong prior year: T.J. Maxx grew 2.1% per-location and 2.8% overall, while Marshalls rose 1.6% and 3.3%, respectively.
Department stores, by contrast, faced a more challenging traffic environment, with several chains continuing to shrink their footprints. Yet even within the category, performance was mixed. And the brands with the clearest identities – whether rooted in regional loyalty or premium, service-led positioning – continued to thrive.
Regional players led the traditional segment, with Von Maur seeing the most pronounced and consistent per-location growth during the analyzed period. Repeatedly ranked “America’s Best Department Store” by Newsweek, the chain has built its reputation on a differentiated, service-first in-store experience. Boscov’s, another regional operator with a loyal customer base, delivered a solid Q4 as well, even though per-location traffic dipped slightly YoY in December and January.
Among national banners, several higher-end brands also showed relative strength. Nordstrom – long associated with standout customer service – grew per-location visits by 4.2% YoY in Q4, even as overall traffic slipped 0.6% amid store closures. Bloomingdale’s posted 1.9% per-location growth. And while Saks Fifth Avenue has faced well-publicized corporate headwinds, its traffic declines remained comparatively modest in Q4.
The pressure was most visible among mid-market chains without a sharply defined value or experiential proposition. Kohl’s saw per-location visits fall 3.2%, with overall traffic down 5.0%, while JCPenney declined 3.8% and 5.5%, respectively. Macy’s, meanwhile, saw overall traffic drop as it continued rightsizing – though per-location visits held relatively steady, suggesting its turnaround strategy is beginning to bear fruit.
The Q4 data underscores a defining theme in department store and off-price retail: Consumers are rewarding clarity. Off-price is winning on value and discovery, regionals are winning on loyalty, and premium banners are holding up where the experience is distinct. In a bifurcated retail environment, the middle is the toughest place to be.
For more data-driven retail insights, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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The success of the dollar store category hadn’t been all too surprising in 2025. However, the ability for the category to shine so brightly during the holiday season was unexpected. Traffic to dollar and discount chains was up 4.5% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, mirroring the growth of categories like off-price and wholesale clubs and overperforming compared to traditional holiday staples like apparel, department stores, beauty, consumer electronics, and home.
The retail industry doesn't traditionally think of dollar stores as a holiday shopping destination, but 2025 proved that the definition might need to change in coming years. Dollar stores have done a fantastic job at expanding their assortments and becoming a staple in consumers’ weekly shopping rotation.
Each of the major retailers saw strong traffic trends during the elongated holiday timeframe. In particular, Five Below had a strong same store visit trend over the holidays, focusing on gifting categories, holiday decor, and wrapping supplies. Dollar Tree and Five Below tend to skew their assortments towards more discretionary items, which benefitted both chains over the holidays.
The inherent value proposition of dollar stores has built trust with consumers and aided retailers in winning with shoppers whose holiday budgets might have been more constrained last year, especially with lower income households. The median household income of the largest dollar chains is lower than the average across total retail visitors, indicating that despite higher economic concerns of lower income shoppers, consumers still wanted to ensure that their holidays weren’t impacted. Brands focusing on more discretionary items like stocking stuffers and smaller gift items helped price conscious consumers to round out their holiday shopping without having to abstain from gifting all together.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Five metros from across the United States stand out for consumer momentum going into 2026: Salt Lake City (UT), Reno (NV), Indianapolis (IN), Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (FL), and Raleigh-Durham (NC). All five metro areas saw their populations increase by more than the average U.S. metro between 2023 and 2024, and year-over-year (YoY) retail and dining traffic trends outpaced the nationwide average.
Utah is one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S. The state’s population has grown steadily for more than two decades with unemployment remaining consistently below the nationwide average, with one of the youngest workforces in the country. According to some analysts, the median household income in Utah, when adjusted for cost of living, is the highest in the nation.
All of this positions Salt Lake City – the state’s capital – as a particularly attractive market heading into 2026. Location analytics show year-over-year increases in foot traffic across many neighborhoods, from established retail hubs like Sugar House and Downtown SLC to the more mixed-use Central City and primarily residential areas such as The Avenues and East Bench. The city also serves as a gateway to a diverse mix of audiences, attracting younger residents and commuters as well as affluent families who come into the city to shop, dine, and enjoy local attractions.
Salt Lake City’s diversity in age and household composition as well as Utah's strong homeownership culture – even among younger cohorts – creates opportunities for retail and dining chains across categories. Home-forward concepts are particularly poised to outperform, as shown by recent location analytics. Traffic to furniture & home furnishing chains increased 7.4% YoY in the Salt Lake City DMA compared to a 2.5% increase nationwide, and grocery stores and home improvement retailers outperformed in the market as well. These trends point to a solid market for retailers tied to home life – from furniture and décor to everyday grocery needs –driven not only by steady population growth and household spending, but also by a local culture that places strong emphasis on family and the home.
While Salt Lake City continues to build on its strong foundation, another Western city is quietly gaining momentum. Reno, Nevada, which is often viewed as a regional gaming-town, is increasingly emerging as a dynamic travel destination in its own right.
In 2024 Washoe County (including the city of Reno) welcomed approximately 3.8 million visitors whose spending of about $3.4 billion generated a total economic impact of $5.2 billion. This growth signals a robust visitor-economy that supports roughly 43,800 jobs and generates over $420 million in state and local tax revenue.
What makes this particularly compelling is that while Las Vegas, Nevada is facing mounting pressures from increasing costs, the Reno-Tahoe region is showing stronger resilience thanks in part to a drive-market model and diversified appeal. Analyzing the traffic data shows that visits from non-residents, and non-employees to downtown Reno have increased YoY for the past three years. And though Reno may be thought of as a vacation spot for older Gen X and Baby Boomer vacationers, the data also indicates that Singles & Starters –"young singles starting out and some starter families living a city lifestyle" – make up an increasingly large share of Reno's visitor base.
This generational diversification carries important implications for both retail and real estate investment. As younger visitors drive up spending in food, entertainment, and shopping centers, the market is poised for renewed urban energy – fueling redevelopment across downtown corridors and mixed-use projects. With strategic public–private investments and an expanding visitor economy, Reno stands out as a market to watch in 2026, combining strong fundamentals with emerging demographic momentum.
The Midwest also contains several metro areas on the rise. Large-scale manufacturing projects like Intel’s $20 billion chip plants and Honda and LG Energy Solution’s EV battery facility are spurring housing and retail expansion around Columbus, Ohio. Kansas City, Missouri, is benefiting from logistics growth and projected tourism growth linked to its role as a FIFA World Cup 2026 host city. And Madison, Wisconsin, is seeing steady consumer growth is supported by its diverse tech and biotech economy.
But Indianapolis, Indiana tops the charts in terms of YoY overall retail visit growth between May and October 2025 (+4.3%, see first chart). And much of the consumer traffic in the Indianapolis DMA consists of suburban and rural households – precisely the segments that many retailers are now trying to woo.
Family-friendly retailers and dining chains are particularly well positioned to thrive in Indiana heading into 2026. Indianapolis has some of the best job prospects and most affordable home prices in the country – and its favorable salary to cost of living ratio likely allows many families to have leftover income left over for discretionary spending.
Recent data shows that a range of family-oriented brands – from Chili’s and Marshall’s to Kroger – have outperformed in Indianapolis over the past six months. The city’s growing middle-income population and its suburban, family-focused consumer base appear to be fueling stronger in-person spending, particularly at convenient, affordable, and community-oriented retail and dining destinations.
Moving east to North Carolina brings several additional growing metros into focus, including Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, and Charlotte. But Raleigh rises above the pack with its powerful combination of job growth, steady in-migration, and a well-balanced, diversified economy.
All this is leading to YoY increases in total traffic within the Raleigh-Durham, NC DMA, driven in part by major firms – including entrants in finance and life-sciences – continuing to expand operations in the area. The city of Raleigh also has relatively low median age and relatively high median household income. This combination of robust job creation, wage gains, and a growing pool of young, high-spending residents positions Raleigh as one of the most dynamic consumer markets in the Southeast heading into 2026.
Raleigh's consumer growth potential is particularly stark when looking at performance of major mixed-use developments across the region. Foot traffic at leading projects such as Smoky Hollow, the Main District at North Hills Street, and Fenton in Cary has climbed sharply.
The data also shows that these destinations attract a disproportionately high share of wealthy singles and one-person households – a demographic with strong discretionary spending power. Together, these trends point to a deepening base of urban, high-income consumers fueling growth in dining, retail, and entertainment – making Raleigh one of the country's most dynamic and opportunity-rich metro areas heading into 2026.
In the Southeast, Tampa is one of the nation’s standout metro areas heading into 2026. Strong fundamentals – such as no state income tax and expanding employment in sectors like technology, healthcare, and logistics – have attracted a significant influx of Gen Z and millennial residents. And although in-migration is beginning to slow somewhat, the city's expanding economy and youthful talent base continue to fuel growth across housing, retail, and dining.
And as more companies require employees to spend additional days in the office, YoY commuter traffic has increased across Tampa’s major cities. Leisure visits from non-residents are also on the rise, suggesting that retailers and dining chains seeking to capture this expanding market could benefit from growing their presence throughout the Tampa metro area.
Rising traffic across Tampa’s major urban areas appears to be translating into stronger dining activity as well. Over the past six months, average YoY visits to Tampa area full-service restaurants, coffee shops, and fast-casual chains have all exceeded the national average, which may reflect a broader acceleration in both local workforce and leisure-visitor demand.
1. Retail is deeply divided. Visits to value and luxury apparel segments grew YoY in 2025 while traffic to mid-tier retailers flagged.
2. Upscale dining momentum reflects similar bifurcation. More resilient, affluent consumers are bolstering fine-dining traffic.
3. Authenticity is key. Brands successfully executing on a clear sense of purpose – from community-driven grocers to bookstores – are driving consistent visit growth.
4. Online and offline retail are converging into a seamless ecosystem. As consumers seek online value and in-person convenience, AI fulfillment, dark stores, and local pickup are accelerating.
5. Digitally native brands expanding into physical retail are redefining omnichannel. These chains provide a blueprint for merging digital efficiency with personalized in-store experiences.
6. Traditionally urban brands are shifting to suburbia to capture new audiences. With consumers rooted in hybrid lifestyles and growing suburban demand, chains that adapt their footprints drive fresh traffic.
7. Expansion into college markets and celebrity pop-ups are helping retailers and malls connect with younger consumers. Brands that grew their footprints in college towns or on campuses increased their Gen Z traffic, as did malls that hosted celebrity or influencer activations.
Retail and dining faced another complex year in 2025. Persistent economic headwinds and uncertainty surrounding tariffs intensified consumers’ focus on value, even as affluent shoppers continued to indulge in luxury brands and upscale dining experiences.
Yet the year also revealed behavioral shifts that extended beyond price sensitivity. Shoppers increasingly prioritized brands that convey authenticity and a clear sense of purpose – those that deliver value not only through price, but through omnichannel convenience, product quality, and brand ethos.
For their part, retailers and malls continued to evolve, adopting strategies to capture both the expanding suburban market and a rising generation of younger consumers emerging as a defining force in retail.
How have these trends evolved, and how will they shape the retail landscape in 2026? We dove into the data to find out.
The first three quarters of 2025 underscored a widening divide in the apparel sector, with strength at both ends of the price and income spectrums.
Off-price retailers and thrift stores, which draw shoppers from lower- and middle-income trade areas, gained significant ground – reflecting consumers’ ongoing search for value and treasure-hunt experiences that feel both economical and rewarding. At the same time, luxury maintained modest growth, showing that high-income shoppers remain resilient and willing to spend on premium experiences. Meanwhile, traditional apparel and mid-tier department stores continued to see visit declines, signaling further pressure on the retail middle. Retailers such as Target and Kohl’s, traditional staples of this middle segment, are contending with the challenge of defining their identity to consumers in a market increasingly split between value and luxury.
Looking ahead to 2026, mid-tier retailers will need to navigate a complex and polarized landscape. Without the clear positioning enjoyed by value and luxury players, success will require sharper differentiation and disciplined execution. But though the middle remains a tough place to compete, it still holds potential: Brands that can redefine relevance – something many of these same chains achieved just a few years ago – stand to capture consumers with spending power.
A similar bifurcation dynamic is also unfolding in the dining sector.
Upscale full-service restaurants (FSRs) are outperforming their casual dining counterparts, as higher-income consumers – and those dining out for special occasions – seek elevated experiences at fine-dining chains.
At the same time, more cost-conscious diners are trading down from casual dining FSRs to fast-casual chains, which continue to outperform the casual dining segment. Fast-casual brands are also benefiting from trading up within the limited-service segment, as consumers who choose to eat out – rather than eat at home or grab a lower-cost prepared meal at a c-store or grocery – opt for more experiences that feel more premium yet remain accessible.
Across both retail and dining, bifurcation doesn’t tell the whole story. Even as spending concentrates at the high and low ends of the market, a growing number of brands are succeeding by delivering an experience that feels intentional, distinctive, and true to their identity. These concepts share a clear raison d’être – a sense of purpose that resonates with consumers – as well as successful execution. The data shows that brands providing this kind of “on-point” experience are driving consistent visit growth in 2025, signaling that authenticity may be important retail currency in 2026.
Trader Joe’s sustained momentum reflects its ability to make shopping feel like discovery. The chain’s locally-inspired assortments, roughly 80% private-label mix, and steady rotation of seasonal products keep visits fresh and engagement high.
Sprouts, for its part, continues to benefit from a sharpened identity centered on freshness, sustainability, and health. Its smaller-format stores, curated product mix, and messaging around healthy living have helped it build a loyal base of wellness‐oriented shoppers.
Meanwhile, Barnes & Noble’s transformation offers a compelling case study in the power of experience. Its strategy of empowering local managers to curate store selections and host community events has turned stores into cultural touchpoints – driving increased visits and dwell times.
All three brands derive their strength from their clarity of purpose – illustrating how authenticity and intentionality are becoming meaningful factors shaping consumer engagement.
Authenticity isn’t limited to national names. Regional players such as H-E-B and In-N-Out Burger demonstrate how deeply ingrained local identity can translate into sustained growth.
H-E-B’s community-driven ethos, local sourcing, and operational excellence have built trust across Texas markets, helping it remain one of the country’s most beloved grocery chains, with high rates of shoppers visiting multiple times a month. And in the quick-service category, California-native In-N-Out Burger stands out for its quality, nostalgia, and mystique, as the chain continues to attract visitation trends that exceed national QSR benchmarks.
These brands demonstrate that authenticity can have a local element. Their success reflects not just product strength or efficiency, but a deeper connection to the communities they serve.
While regional and experience-driven brands continue to build deep consumer connections, the broader retail landscape is also being reshaped by operational innovation. As technology and infrastructure improve, retailers are finding new ways to merge digital efficiency with convenient physical touchpoints.
E-commerce growth and in-store activity are increasingly interconnected. Visits to ecommerce distribution centers* climbed steadily between October 2021 and September 2025, while the share of short, under-10-minute trips to big-box chains Target, Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club also increased. Together, these patterns suggest that while online shopping continues to expand, consumers remain highly engaged with physical locations through buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) and same-day fulfillment channels – combining the value of online deals with the convenience of quick, local pickup.
This trend also reflects ongoing advancements in AI-driven fulfillment and Walmart’s testing of dark stores – retail spaces converted into local fulfillment hubs that accelerate delivery and enable quick customer pickup. These innovations are shortening fulfillment windows while optimizing store networks for hybrid demand.
As retailers continue to blur the boundaries between digital and physical commerce in 2026, expect them to become increasingly complementary parts of a single, omnichannel ecosystem.
*The Placer.ai E-commerce Distribution Center Index measures foot traffic across more than 400 distribution centers nationwide, including facilities operated by leading retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target. Designed as a barometer for U.S. e-commerce activity, the index captures two key audiences: employees, estimated through dwell-time patterns, and visitors, who often represent logistics partners delivering raw materials, moving in-process goods, or collecting finished products.
The resurgence of digitally native brands embracing physical retail underscores how online and offline strategies are converging into an integrated model, combining digital efficiency with the benefits of a physical presence.
Framebridge, a DTC custom framing brand, offers a clear example of this trend. As the brand has expanded its footprint, the average number of monthly visits to each of its locations rose sharply throughout 2025.
Framebridge’s success lies in its well-executed omnichannel model. Customers can place orders online or in store, with the option to ship directly to their homes or pick up in person.
But for Framebridge, physical locations aren’t just about convenience. Art and memories are often one of a kind, so having knowledgeable staff in store and the opportunity to engage with materials firsthand transforms a transaction into a personalized, consultative experience.
Framebridge exemplifies how digitally native brands are merging the ease of online shopping with physical spaces that provide a personal touch. And more digitally native brands, like Gymshark, are looking to bring their business offline with the hope of adding value for consumers.
As retailers advance their omnichannel strategies, another enduring shift is reshaping the retail map post-pandemic – the continued rise of suburban traffic. Brands that entered the pandemic with strong suburban footprints were among the first to benefit as in-person activity rebounded, while urban-focused chains that expanded outward have met migrating consumers and captured new audiences anchored in hybrid lifestyles and local shopping routines.
Large-format and drive-thru focused brands like Costco, Cava, and Dutch Bros. entered the pandemic era from a position of strength as they are traditionally situated in suburban and exurban areas. As consumers spent more time close to home and away from urban centers, these chains captured heightened local demand and saw visits rebound rapidly once in-person shopping resumed.
And as the pandemic reshaped consumer traffic patterns, brands like Shake Shack and Chipotle quickly recognized emerging opportunities in suburban markets and adjusted their strategies to capture this shifting demand. For Shake Shack – a brand once defined by its urban storefronts – the shift toward suburban drive-thrus and stand-alone locations represented a significant pivot. Chipotle followed a similar path, accelerating its suburban expansion through the rollout of “Chipotlane” drive-thru lanes.
Arriving somewhat later to the suburban landscape, sweetgreen, once synonymous with its urban footprint, opened its first drive-thru in 2022, and by 2024 had made suburban markets a core pillar of its growth strategy.
These real estate moves positioned all three brands to capture demand from remote and hybrid workers, helping sustain visit growth well above pre-pandemic baselines.
As suburban demand continues to grow, the suburbs will likely remain a critical growth frontier for many brands in the year ahead.
Investment in suburban markets underscores how changing market conditions and strategy adaptation can allow brands to meet consumers where they are. And a parallel trend is unfolding in college towns and youth-dense trade areas, where brands are channeling investment to capture rising Gen Z spending power.
Expansion in college-anchored markets, paired with celebrity and influencer-driven pop-ups, is helping retailers build cultural relevance and increase engagement with this emerging consumer base.
The graph below underscores how targeted expansion into college-anchored markets can meaningfully shift audience composition. Over the last several years, many brands have expanded their near-campus footprints – and in turn, attracted a higher share of the Spatial.ai:PersonaLive “Young Urban Singles” segment, one highly aligned with Gen Z consumers.
CAVA’s rapid unit growth, including openings near major universities and in college towns, helped the brand increase its share of “Young Urban Singles” within its captured trade areas between October 2018-September 2019 and October 2024-September 2025. Meanwhile, Panda Express and Raising Cane's, which already had relatively large shares of the segment six years ago, have also invested in college-adjacent locations, lifting their “Young Urban Singles” audience share.
Even legacy mass retailer Target benefited from small-format and large store expansions near universities – growing its captured market share of “Young Urban Singles”.
These shifts suggest that college towns will continue to be strategic growth markets, including for luxury brands like Hermès. By making inroads in college towns and with Gen Z shoppers, brands can strengthen loyalty early and build durable market share that remains as these young adults move on from campus life.
As Gen Z’s influence expands beyond campus borders, retail engagement is increasingly driven by cultural moments that resonate with this cohort. And malls are finding that temporary pop-ups including influencer collaborations and celebrity-led activations can attract these young consumers.
At The Grove, the Pandora pop-up with brand ambassador girl-group Katseye in October 2024 led to a modest but significant increase in the Gen Z-dominant “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” segments within the mall’s captured trade area during the first week of the activation – compared to the average for the last twelve months.
Similarly, at Westfield Century City, the Taylor Swift x TikTok activation from October 3rd-9th, 2025 – which allowed fans to immerse themselves in the sets from the viral “The Fate of Ophelia” music video boosted the shares of “Young Urban Singles” and Young Professionals”, underscoring the star power of everything Taylor Swift.
And at American Dream, the pattern extended beyond younger audiences. On September 5th and 6th, 2025, Ninja Kidz attended the grand opening of their Action Park while Salish Matters made an appearance at the mall on September 6th for her skincare pop-up – which drew such large crowds that it had to be shut down. During these two event days, the mall’s shares of both “Young Professionals” and “Ultra-Wealthy Families” increased substantially, highlighting that pop-up events can draw young and affluent family audiences.
Together, these examples reinforce that, in 2026, the integration of short-term pop-ups will continue to be a strategy for malls and individual brands to gain relevance for key demographic segments.
2025 reinforced that retail remains as dynamic as ever. Value continues to anchor decisions, but consumers are redefining what value means – blending price sensitivity with expectations for authenticity. And in the current retail landscape, online and physical retail are growing more interconnected as consumers demand convenience and experience.
In 2026, adaptability will be retailers’ greatest competitive edge. The next era of retail will belong to brands that can continue to refine their operating strategy – while staying true to a clear brand identity.
1) Retail foot traffic faces lingering pressure – making promotions more critical than ever. Financial uncertainty, tariffs, and inflation continue to weigh on discretionary spending, making well-timed, targeted holiday promotions essential to reignite demand and drive in-store traffic.
2) The retail divide appears set to widen this holiday season – Luxury and off-price apparel are both outpacing overall retail, reflecting a deepening bifurcation of consumer behavior. And this December, the affluence gap between the two categories is expected to expand further, underscoring opportunities to engage both premium and value-focused shoppers across segments.
3) Despite slower overall performance, beauty and electronics have performed well during recent retail milestones. To make the most of this momentum, advertisers should align campaigns with shifting holiday audiences – electronics toward married homeowners and beauty toward affluent suburban families.
4) Early Promotions Could Lift In-Store Traffic – Last year, early holiday campaigns helped offset a shorter shopping season and sustain strong results. With another condensed window and continued shipping disruptions, retailers who start early and emphasize in-store availability will be best positioned to capture additional visits and outperform 2024’s results.
The holiday season is fast approaching, but this year’s backdrop looks especially complex. Consumers are navigating heightened financial uncertainty, with tariffs driving up prices and disrupting supply, while inflation continues to weigh on discretionary spending.
For retailers and advertisers, the stakes are high. The holiday period remains a critical window for promotional engagement, and success will depend on understanding consumer behavior and crafting promotions that are timed, targeted, and designed to meet shoppers where they are.
We turned to foot traffic data to uncover the key trends shaping this season’s retail environment, and to identify promotional strategies likely to succeed.
Consumer activity appeared strong in most of early 2025 – except in February, when extreme weather and leap-year comparisons drove sharp year-over-year (YoY) declines. But foot traffic slowed this summer, highlighting the toll of lingering financial uncertainty and strain.
For advertisers, this underscores how pivotal seasonal promotions will be in reigniting demand. With many consumers cutting back on discretionary spending, well-timed and well-targeted campaigns will be essential to encourage shoppers to spend more freely during the holidays. These promotions don’t have to rely solely on price cuts — pop-culture collaborations and other creative product launches have also proven highly effective in driving traffic this year.
> Financial uncertainty and tighter household budgets are weighing on retail foot traffic this year – making effective holiday promotions more critical than ever.
Still, not all retail categories have been equally affected by broader economic headwinds. Some segments have experienced softer demand, signaling where advertisers may need to take a more measured, efficiency-focused approach. Others, however, have shown notable resilience – offering opportunities to double down on creative promotions that deepen engagement during the holidays.
One such segment is home furnishings, which has seen YoY traffic gains over the past 12 months, driven by the strong performance of discount chains as shoppers favor accessible décor updates over large-scale renovations. Strategic campaigns highlighting affordable refreshes and quick “holiday-ready” makeovers could give the category an additional lift in Q4, as households look to update their spaces in preparation for hosting family and friends.
But the biggest gains have been in the apparel category, where a bifurcation trend has emerged, boosting visits at both luxury and off-price retailers. The success of both segments underscores promotional strategies that can amplify momentum – steep-value discounts on one end of the spectrum, and exclusivity and quality on the other. Advertisers across retail segments can adapt this dual approach to engage both budget-driven and premium audiences effectively.
And demographic data reveals just how deeply entrenched this bifurcation has become – especially during the holiday season.
The chart below examines monthly changes in the median household incomes (HHIs) of luxury and off-price retailers’ captured markets since January 2023. Even small shifts in HHI across major retail categories can signal meaningful changes in audience composition – and these patterns tell a clear story.
In luxury apparel, where the median HHI is well above the national average of $79.6K, visitor income follows a distinct seasonal rhythm. During the early holiday shopping period, HHI remains lower in October and dips slightly in November as middle-income shoppers take advantage of early promotions to snag products that may be out of reach the rest of the year. It then rises in December as affluent consumers return to purchase gifts. Notably, luxury HHI has trended upward since 2023 – with each holiday peak higher than the last – suggesting that this December’s visitor base will be even more affluent than last year.
For advertisers, this means late-season campaigns should prioritize prestige audiences while still engaging aspirational shoppers during early holiday promotions like Black Friday.
In the off-price apparel segment, on the other hand, median HHI typically declines during the holidays – especially in December – indicating an influx of more price-sensitive shoppers. And over time, this visitor base has become even more value-driven, reinforcing the importance of promotional messaging that emphasizes unbeatable deals and savings.
Together, these patterns once again highlight the growing need for tailored strategies: premium experiences for high earners and sharp value propositions for cost-conscious consumers – a lesson that may extend well beyond these categories.
>The retail divide is expected to deepen further in December 2025, with off-price retailers drawing more value-driven shoppers and luxury brands attracting increasingly affluent consumers.
In a challenging economic environment, one might expect promotions around key retail milestones to prompt consumers to deviate from their usual habits, experimenting with new brands or categories. Yet the data shows that, for the most part, shoppers instead deepened their engagement with the retailers they already patronize – utilizing holiday promotions to buy the same products at better prices.
The graph below shows that during recent shopping milestones, the off-price and luxury categories both stood out in YoY performance – reflecting the strong momentum sustained by both segments over the past twelve months.
Still, the graph above also highlights two additional segments potentially poised for holiday success: beauty & self care and electronics.
Despite slower traffic over the past year, beauty retailers saw notable spikes around key recent promotional moments – including Black Friday, Mother’s Day, and Memorial Day. And although electronics retailers continued to face headwinds as consumers delayed big-ticket purchases – including during last year’s Black Friday – more recent milestones have seen traffic stabilize or even increase YoY.
This indicates that the right promotional environment can still effectively drive engagement in these discretionary categories, and that deal-driven behavior is likely to remain a defining theme this holiday season. In addition, as the replacement cycle begins for major electronics first purchased during the pandemic, shoppers may be especially willing to upgrade to a new TV or laptop if the right offer comes along.
But to make the most of the opportunity presented by Q4, advertisers and retailers in the beauty and electronics spaces should pay close attention to the shifting demographics of their in-store audiences during the holiday season.
For electronics retailers, married couples and homeowners become increasingly important during the peak holiday shopping period. Their share in the category’s captured market rises consistently each December, indicating that campaigns emphasizing household upgrades, family entertainment, and quality-of-life improvements may resonate most effectively in late Q4.
In contrast, beauty retailers – typically buoyed by young professionals – see their audience composition shift towards suburbia during the holidays. In December, the share of wealthy suburban families in beauty retailers’ captured markets grows meaningfully, while the share of young professionals declines. Advertisers can capitalize by highlighting premium bundles, limited-edition sets, and gifting options that speak directly to these households’ desire for premium, family-oriented products.
> Off-price and luxury retailers maintained strong performance during major retail milestones, but beauty and electronics stand out as rising opportunities for the 2025 holiday season.
> As holiday demographics shift during the holiday season – with electronics drawing more married homeowners and beauty attracting wealthier suburban families – campaigns that reflect these audiences’ lifestyles and priorities will resonate most.
Timing is also a decisive factor in retailer and advertiser success during the holiday season.
Traditionally, the “core” holiday retail period begins with Black Friday and continues until Christmas Eve. But in 2024, there was one fewer week between these two milestones compared to the previous year. And to compensate, many retailers launched an “early” holiday season, rolling out promotions in October and early November to maximize consumer engagement.
As the graph below shows, the shorter “core” season of 2024 unsurprisingly drew less in-store traffic across retail categories than the longer period the year before. Yet by embracing early promotions, retailers offset much of this shortfall, leading to overall holiday season results that, in many cases, matched or even exceeded 2023’s performance.
Looking ahead, 2025 once again brings a compressed “core” shopping window. And with shipping disruptions still influenced by shifting tariff regulations, more consumers may turn to brick-and-mortar stores earlier in the season to ensure timely purchases – further supporting offline traffic.
If retailers and advertisers double down on early-season engagement while continuing to drive momentum through the “core” weeks, YoY traffic for the 2025 holiday season could deliver even bigger overall gains than those seen in 2024.
> Last year, early holiday promotions helped offset a shorter core holiday season.
> In 2025, retail and advertising professionals are again faced with a relatively short core shopping season. And aware of the condensed timeline and shipping disruptions, more shoppers may opt for early in-store purchases to avoid the risk of delayed deliveries.
This holiday season will reward advertisers and retailers who recognize the growing retail divide and tailor their messaging to the shoppers most likely to visit during the holidays – whether married homeowners on the hunt for electronics or affluent suburban families seeking beauty products. As in 2024, acting early to offset a shorter core shopping period will be essential to capturing demand. And those who combine sharp timing with audience insight will be best positioned to turn a complex season into a strong finish.
