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College students make up a small portion of the U.S. population, but they wield an outsize influence in the consumer market. Despite being notoriously budget-conscious, collegians value enjoyment and willingly splurge on experiences. And as tomorrow’s affluent consumers, today’s college students can deliver big future rewards for brands that successfully build lasting relationships with the segment.
So with spring break upon us, we dove into the data to see how today’s college crowd allocates its dining dollars. Where do they like to eat out? And how can brands best cater to their preferences?
Tight budgets notwithstanding, students are always on the hunt for delicious treats that don’t break the bank. And while overindulgence in beer and pizza traditionally led to the dreaded “freshman fifteen”, location analytics show that today’s college students are a bit more discerning. They balance cost with a desire for elevated experiences – while also prioritizing healthier options.
Against this backdrop, it may come as no surprise that fast-casual chains hit the college sweet spot between indulgence and affordability. In 2024, the share of STI:Landscape’s “Collegian” segment in the captured market trade areas of fast-casual chains nationwide stood at 54% above the nationwide baseline – meaning that this demographic’s representation among fast-casual’s visitor base was 54% above average. Specialty drinks – think healthful smoothies, boba teas, and juices – also stood out as particularly popular among the college crowd. Meanwhile, the share of college students in the captured markets of full-service restaurants (FSR), traditional coffee spots, and quick-service chains (QSR) was significantly lower – though still on par with, or slightly above, the nationwide baseline.
Within the specialty drink and fast-casual segments, certain chains attract a particularly strong college following, including Noodles & Company – which likely draws students with its unique twist on comfort foods like mac and cheese. Playa Bowls and Kung Fu Tea are also especially popular among undergrads on the hunt for wholesome, convenient pick-me-ups.
Even within categories that typically see fewer college patrons, such as FSR and QSR, select brands maintain a strong hold on this market. Wine club Postino and KPOT Korean BBQ & Hotpot – both of which offer elevated, unique experiences that deliver plenty of bang for the buck – are popular among collegians. Several mass-market FSR and QSR chains, including Waffle House, Texas Roadhouse, The Cheesecake Factory, Chili’s Grill & Bar, Raising Cane’s, Culver’s, Papa John’s Pizza, and Taco Bell also draw significantly higher-than-average college crowds. And within the coffee space, chains like Dutch Bros, and Scooter’s Coffee that offer specialty beverages like smoothies and energy drinks pull in above-average shares of college crowds.
How do college students interact with the dining brands they love? Zooming in on college town venues that cater specifically to the student crowd can shed light on the unique eating-out behaviors of this demographic.
Nationwide, the share of college students in coffee shops’ captured markets is just over the segment’s overall share in the population (+6%). But Starbucks locations near college campuses are positively teeming with students. A remarkable 81.9% of the captured market of the Starbucks near Indiana University, for example (on S. Indiana Ave in Bloomington, IN), belonged to STI:Landscape’s “Collegian” segment in 2024 – 5386% above the national average. Similar patterns were observed at locations near Texas A&M University and Penn State, where the segment made up 70.3% and 61.3%, respectively, of the locations’ visitor bases.
And these students tended to linger far longer than visitors to other Starbucks locations, either to study or hang out with friends – between 28.0 and 34.0 minutes on average, compared to 14.1 minutes for the chain as a whole.
Students also crave quick bites to power them through late-night study marathons and parties. Although most Taco Bells are busiest in the afternoons and early evenings, the one on S. Providence Rd. in Columbia, MO (near Mizzou) – with 68.5% of its market composed of “Collegians” – saw nearly half of visits take place after 8:00 PM last year. The same pattern held true at Taco Bell sites near the University of Florida in Gainesville and Texas A&M in College Station.
Collegian consumer activity typically peaks in August, when back-to-school shopping surges. And this holds true for college town restaurants as well. In 2024, visits to Chili’s locations serving college students – such as the Texas Ave S. location in College Station, TX, where the “Collegian” segment comprises 57.8% of its market – saw a notable visit spike in August. But in December, Chili's busiest month nationwide, things slowed down considerably at the analyzed campus-adjacent locations, as students headed back home for the holidays.
From hearty fast-casual fare to specialty drinks, late-night burritos, and lengthy coffee shop study sessions, college students blend cost-consciousness with a desire for quality and experience. And their loyalty to brands that strike this balance – while catering to their unique preferences and behaviors – can be massive, especially once they leave campus and their spending power grows.
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Why has Old Navy introduced occasionwear? Examining the product selection available at the six brick-and-mortar apparel chains most frequently visited by Old Navy visitors (T.J. Maxx, Kohl’s, Marshalls, Ross Dress for Less, DICK’s Sporting Goods, and Macy’s) can shed light on the apparel needs of Old Navy’s consumer base.
Old Navy shoppers seem to like activewear – all six of Old Navy’s biggest brick-and-mortar competitors in the apparel space carry a large selection of sportswear and athleisure. In fact, the apparel selection at DICK’s Sporting Goods – the fifth most frequently visited chain among Old Navy visitors – is limited to only athletic wear. Old Navy already holds a strong competitive position in this category with its popular activewear collection.
But some Old Navy shoppers may be visiting brick-and-mortar apparel chains in search of the perfect evening dress – five of the top six retailers competing with Old Navy for apparel visits carry evening wear. So expanding its product line to include prom dresses and similar items may help Old Navy recapture some of the traffic lost to competitors from customers in search of occasionwear.
American Dream hosted the first ever JonasCon on March 23rd, 2025. How did the event impact visitation trends, and what does the success of JonasCon mean for the future of malls? We dove into the data to find out.
American Dream has emphasized the experiential potential of malls from its inception. The massive shopping, dining, and leisure venue includes a vast array of indoor and outdoor entertainment facilities such as a water park, an indoor ski slope, and an aquarium as well as numerous stores and restaurants. And although the mall – which opened just before the COVID pandemic – has dealt with its share of setbacks, recent data suggests that American Dream has turned a corner, with leasing picking up and year-over-year quarterly visits positive throughout 2024.
American Dream’s position as both a mall and an entertainment complex along with its location in New Jersey – the Jonas Brothers’ home state – made it the natural choice to host JonasCon, a one-day fan convention on March 23rd, 2025 celebrating the band’s twentieth anniversary.
The event proved to be a major success, with visits to American Dream surging 146.5% higher than the YTD average and 72.8% higher than a YTD Sunday. Visitors during JonasCon also stayed significantly longer in the mall, with the average visit on March 23rd lasting 220 minutes – almost four hours – compared to an average stay of 141 minutes for the YTD.
The JonasCon visit spike was driven in part by own-of-towners making the trip especially for the event. On March 23rd, over 25% of visitors to American Dream came from at least 50 miles away, compared to just 17.9% of visitors coming from 50+ miles away for the YTD average. The surge in overall visits, the extended dwell time, and the significant influx of out-of-towners directly translated to increased opportunities for spending across the entire venue.
The event also seems to have attracted more singles from more affluent households compared to American Dream’s regular visitor base: The mall’s trade area on March 23rd included fewer households with children and more one person and non-family households compared to the YTD average, and the trade area median household income (HHI) stood at $93.0K compared to the $89.9K median HHI for the YTD.
The popularity of JonasCon among the coveted demographic of affluent singles highlights how malls can target certain audiences by organizing specific happenings. Most malls offer something for everyone – American Dream in particular has a range of offerings for different age groups and at different price points, including a variety of free exhibits. But while providing options for almost any consumer creates the potential for a large and varied visitor base, certain demographics might need an extra nudge to come through the door for the first time. Offering unique experiences can help malls bring in certain groups of consumers that may be underrepresented in the mall’s regular visitor base – perhaps fostering return visits and growing their regular audience.
Through JonasCon, American Dream has once again cemented its position at the forefront of the experiential mall movement. The venue represents a broader trend as some malls evolve beyond transactional spaces to become centers of shared experience – whether through built-in elements or by offering unique experiences through one-off entertainment and events.
The success of JonasCon along with the ongoing visit growth at American Dream highlights the current consumer appetite for exciting and engaging offline experiences – and malls are extremely well positioned to meet this demand.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai.
Dollar Tree's recently announced plan to sell Family Dollar at a significant loss is another sign of the recent struggles in the discount and dollar store sector, highlighted by last year’s closure of 99 Cents Only and Big Lots' bankruptcy filing. We dove into the data to understand what is driving Dollar Tree’s decision and what this means for Family Dollar moving forward.
The discount & dollar store category had been on the rise before the pandemic, and COVID gave the segment another considerable boost – in part thanks to discount and dollar stores’ designation as “essential retailers” that could remain open during lockdowns. Category leaders Dollar General and Dollar Tree continued their aggressive fleet expansions to meet the growing consumer demand, which led to a substantial overall increase in visits to the category.
But zooming in on 2024 data suggests that visit growth to the category is slowing down. Although discount & dollar stores are holding on to their pandemic gains – traffic to the segment is still 57.8% higher than it was in 2017 – year-over-year (YoY) growth is slowing, with 2024 visits up 2.8% compared to 2023, in contrast to 2022 and 2023’s YoY jumps of 7.8% and 7.7%, respectively.
This deceleration of growth is not in itself worrisome – no retail category can sustain rapid growth indefinitely. But the visit trends do signal that discount & dollar store leaders seeking an edge over the competition will need to adopt more strategic approaches and avoid allocating resources to overly risky ventures.
Overall visits to the Dollar Tree brand were already on the rise prior to COVID and skyrocketed over the pandemic – leading to a 60.1% increase in overall visits between 2017 and 2024. But, like with the wider category, traffic growth to Dollar Tree seems to be decelerating – the banner posted a 5.4% YoY increase in visits in 2024 compared to a 13.9% YoY increase in 2023.
But Family Dollar lagged behind, apparently immune to the COVID-driven dollar store visit surge. Traffic to the chain in 2024 was down 4.0% YoY and just 3.6% higher than it was in 2017. And although Dollar Tree’s decision to close nearly 1000 Family Dollar stores appears to be bearing fruit – in 2024, average visits per venue were up 1.7% YoY and 16.9% relative to the 2017 baseline – the improvement seems to have been insufficient to prevent the banner’s sale.
Family Dollar has faced plenty of difficulties in the last several years, so it’s difficult to attribute Dollar Tree’s offloading of the banner to a single factor. Still, one major element that likely hurt the brand’s performance was the intensified competition from other discount and dollar store leaders – including from sister banner Dollar Tree.
Family Dollar visitors have always been keen Walmart shoppers – since 2019, over 90% of Family Dollar yearly visitors also visited Walmart, and these cross-visit trends have remained relatively stable over the past six years. Other dollar stores were not always as popular with Family Dollar shoppers – in 2019, less than two-thirds of Family Dollar visitors also visited a Dollar Tree or a Dollar General. But as those chains grew, so did their appeal to Family Dollar shoppers – by 2024, over three-quarters of Family Dollar visitors also visited Dollar Tree or Dollar General – and this increased competition likely hampered Family Dollar’s growth.
Still, despite the increasingly competitive discount and dollar store space, analyzing Family Dollar’s trade area composition reveals that the chain fills a unique niche within the broader discount retail sector.
Family Dollar tends to attract the least affluent visitor base – the median household income (HHI) in the chain’s captured market trade area is $53.9K, compared to $67.6K, $61.8K, and $68.7K for Walmart, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree, respectively. Family Dollar’s captured market also includes the highest share of urban areas, with 36.9% of its trade area defined as “Urban Periphery” or “Principal Urban Center” by the Esri: Tapestry Segmentation database.
Family Dollar can draw on its distinctive position as an urban-based retailer catering to value-seeking consumers to set itself apart from the competition and lay the groundwork for a successful resurgence.
Although Family Dollar was sold at a substantial discount from its original purchase price, the chain still has a promising opportunity to re-establish itself as a powerful contender in the discount retail landscape. By prioritizing locations in urban areas that are less exposed to direct competition from the other major players and keeping its prices competitive with those of other dollar and discount retailers, Family Dollar can lay the groundwork for a successful resurgence.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai
Consumers have been taking stock of their habits and behaviors over the past few years. With the explosion of semaglutide medications in the market and the high frequency of adoption by consumers, there’s a renewed focus on health and wellness across the U.S. population that extends to other consumption behaviors. One of the outcomes of this change in perspective is the increased scrutiny around the consumption of alcoholic beverages – especially among younger consumers.
At the same time, alcohol consumption increased handily during the pandemic, which has helped liquor stores and retail chains to stand out from the rest of the retail industry. As we hit the five year anniversary of the beginning of the pandemic, it’s time to dive deeper into the Bev Alc space to uncover new trends, changes with consumer engagement, and potential headwinds for the industry.
Liquor store chains benefited greatly from shifts in behavior during the pandemic, and for the most part, they’ve been able to sustain those levels of success over the past few years. However, 2024 signaled a deceleration of foot traffic growth across chains, particularly in the second half of the year.
Bev Alc had been a visitation leader in the essential side of the retail industry in the early days of the pandemic, and the category continued to benefit greatly from sustained levels of alcohol consumption even after pandemic restrictions eased. But as with all pandemic-era consumer habits, as we approach the five year anniversary, reversal of some trends are taking shape: While year-over-year visits continued to rise in 2024, last year’s 4.0% average increase in monthly visits was significantly less than the 8.6%, 9.1%, 7.1%, or 6.7% average increases in monthly visits in 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively.
There are also various factors that could potentially impact the industry this year: Decreased consumption of alcohol that could have played a role in 2024’s softening of visits is likely to continue in 2025, and potential tariffs on popular spirits like Tequila and Mezcal may impact consumer preferences going forward.
From a retailer perspective, Spec’s posted the strongest visit performance while BevMo! had the most challenging 2024 of the larger liquor retail chains, although most chains experienced some softening in foot traffic throughout the year. Bev Alc retail is a notoriously regional and local category, meaning that changes in foot traffic by chain are often impacted by what’s going on in a specific region of the U.S. BevMO! services Arizona, California and Washington, so the chain’s modest performance may point to some decreases in demand across the western part of the country. Meanwhile, Spec’s operates primarily in Texas, and its consistent YoY visit growth throughout 2024 may suggest that the shift in alcohol consumption habits has been more muted in the Lone Star State.
With the broader context of what’s going on across the category analyzed, what’s really driving these changes in visitation to liquor stores? As referenced, there’s been a narrative that younger consumers’ changing alcohol consumption habits will greatly impact the Bev Alc space.
But layering Spatial.ai’s Personalive demographic and psychographic visitor segmentation onto liquor store’s captured market reveals a slightly more nuanced reality. The data shows that between 2019 and 2024, the share of wealthier families and of Educated Urbanites – a younger, well-educated, and more affluent cohort – in the captured market of liquor stores. During the same period, the share of Young Professionals and Young Urban Singles – both segments of younger visitors have lower median household incomes than Educated Urbanites – actually increased.
What the data reveals is that we can’t build a singular narrative around the alcohol habits of all younger consumers; there’s also a layer of socioeconomics that has also impacted consumers' desire to frequent liquor stores and engage in alcohol consumption. This knowledge may also contribute to the changes we’ve seen in BevMo!’s business, as their highest shares of visitation come from wealthier families and Educated Urbanites.
Foot traffic estimates also reveal that consumers have shifted the time of day that they visit liquor store chains. In 2024, we observed a higher share of visits after 3 PM compared to 2019, with the largest penetration shift coming between the hours of 6 PM to 8 PM. Consumers are visiting liquor stores more frequently after working hours than before the pandemic, which underscores the shifting role of alcohol in people’s lives. Our data also indicated a higher distribution of visits during weekdays in 2024 compared to 2019, but a lower share of weekend visits.
Liquor store visit frequency contextualizes the changes that we’ve observed in consumption habits, highlighting that, despite the increased interest in moderating drinking habits, the pandemic did fundamentally shift how people engage with the category and alcohol retail has become more of a presence in consumers’ weekly routines.
As the cultural perception of alcohol shifts, changes are likely to occur across the industry. We’ve observed more liquor brands opening bars and drinking establishments to engage directly with consumers, while there’s also still a continued rise in local and regional brands popping up. Another area that has been growing steadily over the past few years is non-alcoholic beverages. The aisles of grocery stores and liquor stores are now filled with non-alcoholic alternatives of brand names, as well as mocktail entrants into wildly popular canned cocktails. Beyond that, there’s also been an increase in the number of non-alcoholic bottle shops, and the prevalence of non-alcoholic options will likely continue to grow and extend to other areas of the country outside of major cities. The Bev Alc industry is at a true crossroads with consumers, and consumer behavior will dictate how the industry must evolve to stay relevant.
The apparel space has faced considerable headwinds in recent years – from changing consumer preferences to cutbacks in discretionary spending. We dove into the data for various apparel categories to explore emerging industry trends and see what foot traffic patterns can tell us about the state of apparel in 2025.
Consumers’ emphasis on value and the excitement of a constantly changing inventory have significantly impacted the apparel space in recent years – and off-price chains and thrift stores are reaping the benefits.
Between 2019 and 2024, off-price and thrift store chains claimed growing shares of the overall apparel visit pie. Off-price’s visit share jumped from 28.1% in 2019 to 35.1% in 2024, while thrift’s increased from 9.4% to 12.2%. And while this growth came at the expense of traditional department stores and general apparel chains, the relative visit share of our luxury segment remained relatively stable – likely due to its more affluent and less value-seeking clientele.
The activewear and athleisure segment, for its part, has followed a more nuanced path in recent years. The activewear and athleisure segment saw relative visit share growth during the pandemic (between 2019 and 2021), as home workout routines and comfortable clothing became the norm. But in 2022, the category began to revert to its pre-pandemic visit share, likely due to the return of in-person gatherings and return-to-office trends.
Analysis of yearly visits to various apparel categories provides further insight into their foot traffic trajectories.
Since 2021, off-price visits have steadily increased compared to 2019, while thrift store visits have consistently outperformed 2019 levels since 2022. This indicates that the off-price and thrift segments are experiencing absolute visit growth alongside increased relative visit share.
However, over the last four years, visits to traditional department stores and general apparel retailers have consistently underperformed 2019 baselines – while luxury retailers have seen visits decline even as they have maintained relative visit share stability. Meanwhile, following three years of visits above 2019 levels, activewear and athleisure visits have begun to decline, dipping below the 2019 benchmark in 2024.
Diving into the audience demographics in the apparel space reveals several trends behind the growth of the off-price and thrift segments.
In 2024, compared to the other apparel categories, off-price had the largest share of large households (3+ people) within its captured market* (42.1%), while thrift stores had the smallest share (39.0%). This could mean that off-price chains resonate with families seeking budget-friendly staples, whereas thrift stores appeal to singles hunting for unique items.
*A category’s captured market is derived by the census block groups (CBGs) from which retailers draw their visitors weighted by the share of visits from each, and thus reflects the population that visits the category.
Diving deeper into consumer behavior in the apparel space reveals additional visitation trends in the off-price and thrift categories.
Of the analyzed apparel categories, off-price had the longest average visit duration in 2024, followed closely by thrift. Though off-price and thrift formats share a treasure-hunting environment, off-price's higher proportion of larger households may contribute to longer dwell times, as visitors shop for multiple family members at once. Still, thrift store visitors, likely to come from small households, seem to spend significant time treasure-hunting for their own wardrobes. Activewear and athleisure, meanwhile, saw the shortest average dwell time – likely driven by customers who go into the stores knowing exactly what they want.
And of the apparel categories analyzed, thrift had the largest share of weekday visits (Monday - Friday) in 2024, perhaps since its visitors are more likely to be singles and young couples free of family commitments after work or retirees with weekday availability. Still, off-price also had a relatively elevated share of weekday visitors compared to most apparel categories, suggesting that visitors juggling family-driven schedules view off-price shopping as an errand rather than a recreational activity.
Consumer preferences for value and unique finds are reshaping the apparel retail landscape, driving substantial growth in the off-price and thrift segments. While traditional retail models face challenges, understanding these shifts in consumer behaviors and demographics is key to finding success in this dynamic environment.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
1. Market Divergence: While San Francisco's return-to-office trends have stabilized, Los Angeles is increasingly lagging behind national averages with office visits down 46.6% compared to pre-pandemic levels as of June 2025.
2. Commuter Pattern Shifts: Los Angeles faces a persistent decline in out-of-market commuters while San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters has recovered slightly, indicating deeper structural challenges in LA's office market recovery.
3. Visit vs. Visitor Gap: Unlike other markets where increased visits per worker offset declining visitor numbers, Los Angeles saw both metrics decline year-over-year, suggesting fundamental workforce retention issues.
4. Century City Exception: Century City emerges as LA's strongest office submarket with visits only 28.1% below pre-pandemic levels, driven by its premium amenities and strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center.
5. Demographic Advantage: Century City's success may stem from its success in attracting affluent, educated young professionals who value lifestyle integration and are more likely to maintain consistent office attendance in hybrid work arrangements.
While return-to-office trends have stabilized in many markets nationwide, Los Angeles and San Francisco face unique challenges that set them apart from national patterns. This report examines the divergent trajectories of these two major West Coast markets, with particular focus on Los Angeles' ongoing struggles and the emergence of one specific submarket that bucks broader trends.
Through analysis of commuter patterns, demographic shifts, and localized performance data, we explore how factors ranging from out-of-market workforce changes to amenity-driven location advantages are reshaping the competitive landscape for office real estate in Southern California.
Both Los Angeles and San Francisco continue to significantly underperform the national office occupancy average. In June 2025, average nationwide visits to office buildings were 30.5% below January 2019 levels, compared to a 46.6% and 46.4% decline in visits to Los Angeles and San Francisco offices, respectively.
While both cities now show similar RTO rates, they arrived there through different trajectories. San Francisco has consistently lagged behind national return-to-office levels since pandemic restrictions first lifted.
Los Angeles, however, initially mirrored nationwide trends before its office market began diverging and falling behind around mid-2022.
The decline in office visits in Los Angeles and San Francisco can be partly attributed to fewer out-of-market commuters. Both cities saw significant drops in the percentage of employees who live outside the city but commute to work between H1 2019 and H1 2023.
However, here too, the two cities diverged in recent years: San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters relative to local employees rebounded between 2023 and 2024, while Los Angeles' continued to decline – another indication that LA's RTO is decelerating as San Francisco stabilizes.
Like in other markets, Los Angeles saw a larger drop in office visits than in office visitors when comparing current trends to pre-pandemic levels. This is consistent with the shift to hybrid work arrangements, where many of the workers who returned to the office are coming in less frequently than before the pandemic, leading to a larger drop in visits compared to the drop in visitors.
But looking at the trajectory of RTO more recently shows that in most markets – including San Francisco – office visits are up year-over-year (YoY) while visitor numbers are down. This suggests that the workers slated to return to the office have already done so, and increasing the numbers of visits per visitor is now the path towards increased office occupancy.
In Los Angeles, visits also outperformed visitors – but both figures were down YoY (the gap in visits was smaller than the gap in visitors). So while the visitors who did head to the office in LA in Q2 2025 clocked in more visits per person compared to Q2 2024, the increase in visits per visitor was not enough to offset the decline in office visitors.
While Los Angeles may be lagging in terms of its overall office recovery, the city does have pockets of strength – most notably Century City. In Q2 2025, the number of inbound commuters visiting the neighborhood was just 24.7% lower than it was in Q2 2019 and higher (+1.0%) than last year's levels.
According to Colliers' Q2 2025 report, Century City accounts for 27% of year-to-date leasing activity in West Los Angeles – more than double any other submarket – and commands the highest asking rental rates. The area benefits from Trophy and Class A office towers that may create a flight-to-quality dynamic where tenants migrate from urban core locations to this Westside submarket.
The submarket's success is likely bolstered by its strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center – visit data reveals that 45% of weekday commuters to Century City also visited Westfield Century City during Q2 2025. The convenience of accessing the mall's extensive retail, dining, and entertainment options during lunch breaks or after work may encourage employees to come into the office more frequently.
Perhaps thanks to its strategic locations and amenities-rich office buildings, Century City succeeds in attracting relatively affluent office workers.
Century City's office submarket has a higher median trade area household income (HHI) than either mid-Wilshire or Downtown LA. The neighborhood also attracts significant shares of the "Educated Urbanite" Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment – defined as "well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs".
This demographic typically has fewer family obligations and greater flexibility in their work arrangements, making them more likely to embrace hybrid schedules that include regular office attendance. Affluent singles also tend to value the lifestyle amenities and networking opportunities that come with working in a premium office environment like Century City: This demographic is often in career-building phases where in-person collaboration and visibility matter more, driving consistent office utilization that helps sustain the submarket's performance even as other LA office areas struggle with lower occupancy rates.
The higher disposable income of this audience also aligns well with the submarket's upscale retail and dining options at nearby Westfield Century City, creating a mutually reinforcing ecosystem where the office environment and surrounding amenities cater to their preferences.
As the broader Los Angeles market grapples with a shrinking commuter base and declining office utilization, the performance gap between premium, amenity-rich locations and traditional office districts is likely to widen. For investors and tenants alike, these trends underscore the growing importance of location quality, demographic targeting, and lifestyle integration in determining long-term office market viability across Southern California.
Century City's success – anchored by its affluent, career-focused workforce and integrated lifestyle amenities – can offer a blueprint for office market resilience in the hybrid work era.
1. Appetite for offline retail & dining is stronger than ever. Both retail and dining visits were higher in H1 2025 than they were pre-pandemic.
2. Consumers are willing to go the extra mile for the perfect product or brand. The era of one-stop-shops may be waning, as many consumers now prefer to visit multiple chains or stores to score the perfect product match for every item on their shopping list.
3. Value – and value perception – gives chains a clear advantage. Value-oriented retail and dining segments have seen their visits skyrocket since the pandemic.
4. Consumer behavior has bifurcated toward budget and premium options. This trend is driving strength at the ends of the spectrum while putting pressure on many middle-market players.
5. The out-of-home entertainment landscape has been fundamentally altered. Eatertainment and museums have stabilized at a different set point than pre-COVID, while movie theater traffic trends are now characterized by box-office-driven volatility.
6. Hybrid work permanently reshaped office utilization. Visits to office buildings nationwide are still 33.3% below 2019 levels, despite RTO efforts.
The first half of 2025 marked five years since the onset of the pandemic – an event that continues to impact retail, dining, entertainment, and office visitation trends today.
This report analyzes visitation patterns in the first half of 2025 compared to H1 2019 and H1 2024 to identify some of the lasting shifts in consumer behavior over the past five years. What is driving consumers to stores and dining venues? Which categories are stabilizing at a higher visit point? Where have the traffic declines stalled? And which segments are still in flux? Read the report to find out.
In the first half of 2025, visits to both the retail and dining segments were consistently higher than they were in 2019. In both the dining and the retail space, the increases compared to pre-COVID were probably driven by significant expansions from major players, including Costco, Chick-fil-A, Raising Cane's, and Dutch Bros, which offset the numerous retail and dining closures of recent years.
The overall increase in visits indicates that, despite the ubiquity of online marketplaces and delivery services, consumer appetite for offline retail and dining remains strong – whether to browse in store, eat on-premises, collect a BOPIS order, or pick up takeaway.
A closer look at the chart above also reveals that, while both retail and dining visits have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, retail visit growth has slightly outpaced the dining traffic increase.
The larger volume of retail visits could be due to a shift in consumer behavior – from favoring convenience to prioritizing the perfect product match and exhibiting a willingness to visit multiple chains to benefit from each store's signature offering. Indeed, zooming into the superstore and grocery sector shows an increase in cross-shopping since COVID, with a larger share of visitors to major grocery chains regularly visiting superstores and wholesale clubs. It seems, then, that many consumers are no longer looking for a one-stop-shop where they can buy everything at once. Instead, shoppers may be heading to the grocery stores for some things, the dollar store for other items, and the wholesale club for a third set of products.
This trend also explains the success of limited assortment grocers in recent years – shoppers are willing to visit these stores to pick up their favorite snack or a particularly cheap store-branded basic, knowing that this will be just one of several stops on their grocery run.
Diving into the traffic data by retail category reveals that much of the growth in retail visits since COVID can be attributed to the surge in visits to value-oriented categories, such as discount & dollar stores, value grocery stores, and off-price apparel. This period has been defined by an endless array of economic obstacles like inflation, recession concerns, gas price spikes, and tariffs that all trigger an orientation to value. The shift also speaks to an ability of these categories to capitalize on swings – consumers who visited value-oriented retailers to cut costs in the short term likely continued visiting those chains even after their economic situation stabilized.
Some of the visit increases are due to the aggressive expansion strategies of leaders in those categories – including Dollar General and Dollar Tree, Aldi, and all the off-price leaders. But the dramatic increase in traffic – around 30% for all three categories since H1 2019 – also highlights the strong appetite for value-oriented offerings among today's consumers. And zooming into YoY trends shows that the visit growth is still ongoing, indicating that the demand for value has not yet reached a ceiling.
While affordable pricing has clearly driven success for value retailers, offering low prices isn't a guaranteed path to growth. Although traffic to beauty and wellness chains remains significantly higher than in 2019, this growth has now plateaued – even top performers like Ulta saw slight YoY declines following their post-pandemic surge – despite the relatively affordable price points found at these chains.
Some of the beauty visit declines likely stems from consumers cutting discretionary spending – but off-price apparel's ongoing success in the same non-essential category suggests budget constraints aren't the full story. Instead, the plateauing of beauty and drugstore visits while off-price apparel visits boom may be due to the difference in value perception: Off-price retailers are inherently associated with savings, while drugstores and beauty retailers, despite carrying affordable items, lack that same value-driven brand positioning. This may suggest that in today's market, perceived value matters as much as actual affordability.
Another indicator of the importance of value perception is the decline in visits to chains selling bigger-ticket items – both home furnishing chains and electronic stores saw double-digit drops in traffic since H1 2019.
And looking at YoY trends shows that visits here have stabilized – like in the beauty and drugstore categories – suggesting that these sectors have reached a new baseline that reflects permanently shifted consumer priorities around discretionary spending.
A major post-pandemic consumer trend has been the bifurcation of consumer spending – with high-end chains and discount retailers thriving while the middle falls behind. This trend is particularly evident in the apparel space – although off-price visits have taken off since 2019 (as illustrated in the earlier graph) overall apparel traffic declined dramatically – while luxury apparel traffic is 7.6% higher than in 2019.
Dining traffic trends also illustrate this shift: Categories that typically offer lower price points such as QSR, fast casual, and coffee have expanded significantly since 2019, as has the upscale & fine dining segment. But casual dining – which includes classic full-service chains such as Red Lobster, Applebee's, and TGI Fridays – has seen its footprint shrink in recent years as consumers trade down to lower-priced options or visit higher-end venues for special occasions.
Chili's has been a major exception to the casual dining downturn, largely driven by the chain's success in cementing its value-perception among consumers – suggesting that casual dining chains can still shine in the current climate by positioning themselves as leaders in value.
Consumers' current value orientation seems to be having an impact beyond the retail and dining space: When budgets are tight, spending money in one place means having less money to spend in another – and recent data suggests that the consumer resilience in retail and dining may be coming at the expense of travel – or perhaps experiences more generally.
While airport visits from domestic travelers were up compared to pre-COVID, diving into the data reveals that the growth is mostly driven by frequent travelers visiting airports two or more times in a month. Meanwhile, the number of more casual travelers – those visiting airports no more than once a month – is lower than it was in 2019.
This may suggest that – despite consumers' self-reported preferences for "memorable, shareable moments" – at least some Americans are actually de-prioritizing experiences in the first half of 2025, and choosing instead to spend their budgets in retail and dining venues.
The out of home entertainment landscape has also undergone a significant change since COVID – and the sector seems to have settled into a new equilibrium, though for part of the sector, the equilibrium is marked by consistent volatility.
Eatertainment chains – led by significant expansions from venues like Top Golf – saw a 5.5% visit increase compared to pre-pandemic levels, though YoY growth remained modest at 1.1%. On the other hand, H1 2025 museum traffic fell 10.9% below 2019 levels with flat YoY performance (+0.2%). The minimal year-over-year changes in both categories suggest that these entertainment segments have found their new post-COVID equilibrium.
The rise of eatertainment alongside the drop in museum visits may also reflect the intense focus on value for today's consumers. Museums in 2025 offer essentially the same value proposition that they offered in 2019 – and for some, that value proposition may no longer justify the entrance fee. But eatertainment has gained popularity in recent years as a format that offers consumers more bang for their buck relative to stand-alone dining or entertainment venues – which makes it the perfect candidate for success in today's value-driven consumer landscape.
But movie theaters traffic trends are still evolving – even accounting for venue closures, visits in H1 2025 were well below H1 2019 levels. But compared to 2024, movie traffic was also up – buoyed by the release of several blockbusters that drove audiences back to cinemas in the first half of 2025. So while the segment is still far from its pre-COVID baseline, movie theaters retain the potential for significant traffic spikes when compelling content drives consumer demand.
The blockbuster-driven YoY increase can perhaps also be linked to consumers' spending caution. With budgets tight, movie-goers may want to make sure that they're spending time and money on films they are sure to enjoy – taking fewer risks than they did in 2019, when movie tickets and concession prices were lower and consumers were less budget-conscious.
H1 2025 also brought some moderate good news on the return to office (RTO) front, with YoY visits nationwide up 2.1% and most offices seeing YoY office visit increases – perhaps due to the plethora of RTO mandates from major companies. But comparing office visitation levels to pre pandemic levels highlights the way left to go – nationwide visits were 33.3% below H1 2019 levels in H1 2025, with even RTO leaders New York and Miami still seeing 11.9% and 16.1% visit gaps, respectively.
So while the data suggests that the office recovery story is still being written – with visits inching up slowly – the substantial gap from pre-pandemic levels suggests that remote and hybrid work models have fundamentally reshaped office utilization patterns.
Five years post-pandemic, consumer behavior across the retail, dining, entertainment, and office spaces has crystallized into distinct new patterns.
Traffic to retail and dining venues now surpasses pre-pandemic levels, driven primarily by value-focused segments. But retail and dining segments that cater to higher income consumers –such as luxury apparel and fine dining – have also stabilized at a higher level, highlighting the bifurcation of consumer behavior that has emerged in recent years. Entertainment formats show more variability – while eatertainment traffic has settled above and museums below 2019 levels, and movie theaters still seeking stability. Office spaces remain the laggard, with visits well below pre-pandemic levels despite corporate return-to-office initiatives showing modest impact.
It seems, then, that the new consumer landscape rewards businesses that can clearly articulate their value proposition to attract consumers' increasingly selective spending and time allocation – or offer a premium product or experience catering to higher-income audiences.
