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Consumer anticipation of potential tariffs on goods in 2025 has varied across retail categories. Some segments allow consumers to plan purchases far in advance, while others require a “read and react” approach. In general, consumers appear to have followed the latter strategy from late April to June 2025, as year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic returned to levels more in line with long-term trends. Still, this may shift as summer progresses.
One specific category that has been interesting to watch is baby products. Because these purchases are tied to specific life events, they tend to be driven by necessity rather than desire – leaving shoppers with little flexibility to time their buying. At the same time, baby items may face a disproportionate impact from potential tariffs due to their manufacturing sources, giving consumers an incentive to make purchases sooner rather than later.
Against this backdrop, have consumers changed their visit behavior regarding baby products? Data from baby registry Babylist’s physical showroom in Beverly Hills, CA – where customers can test and browse items in person before adding them to a registry – indicates that anticipation of tariffs may indeed be influencing shopping patterns in this space. Starting in April 2025, visits to the showroom began to rise, peaking in May before settling (though still elevated) in June. This trend suggests that new and expecting parents may have pulled forward purchases in order to secure products before potential price hikes, especially on higher-ticket items like strollers, car seats, or furniture.
An analysis of Babylist’s trade area using the STI:PopStats dataset shows that it caters to an affluent demographic: Between January and May 2025, the showroom’s captured market had a median household income of $112.6K, well above both nationwide ($79.6K) and California ($99.3K) baselines. This speaks to the notion that even higher-income consumers could be concerned about future price increases and potential shifts in demand due to tariffs.
Kohl’s provides another window into these shifts. Last fall, Kohl’s launched Babies”R”Us shop-in-shops across nearly 200 locations to expand its assortment and attract and retain shoppers. In our analyses of the program during the first few months post-launch, there hadn’t been much improvement in visitation trends compared to the total store fleet – and for most of early 2025, visits to the stores with Babies”R”Us underperformed the chainwide average.
However, in May and June 2025, Kohl’s locations featuring Babies”R”Us outpaced the chainwide YoY foot traffic. While overall visits were still down, these specific stores saw smaller declines than their counterparts.
One possible factor behind this trend may be the demographic mix at Kohl’s with Babies”R”Us. These stores draw more family-oriented visitor segments – such as Wealthy Suburban Families, Upper Suburban Diverse Families and Near-Urban Diverse Families – than the overall Kohl’s fleet. The family orientation of the Kohl’s + Babies”R”Us stores and the potential focus on the baby category in the midst of potential socioeconomic changes may have combined to help improve the trend at these sites.
How should retailers that carry baby items respond? The baby category is poised to be greatly disrupted due to potential tariff implementation and price increases are likely to hit store shelves. Consumers, for their parts, are clearly aware of potential cost changes and are reacting quickly to adjust their retail behavior. Retailers will need to continue to communicate value and product knowledge to shoppers, especially first-time parents. And creative problem solving will be critical to maintaining product assortment and quality for shoppers over the months and years to come.
About the Mall Index: The Index analyzes data from 100 top-tier indoor malls, 100 open-air shopping centers (not including outlet malls) and 100 outlet malls across the country, in both urban and suburban areas. Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the country.
In June 2025, shopping center traffic fell slightly following two straight months of year-over-year (YoY) visit growth – although indoor malls continued to show the strongest performance, with just a 0.7% drop in YoY June visits. (Open-air shopping centers and outlet malls saw YoY visit declines of 1.6% and 4.4%.)
The course reversal may suggest that the visit growth in April and May was at least partially driven by a pull-forward of consumer demand in anticipation of tariff-driven price hikes. By June, many of those purchases had likely already been made, and the resulting downturn in mall visits might represent a natural normalization of traffic rather than a new weakness in consumer demand.
Still, despite the June slow-down, shopping center traffic was mostly positive in H1 2025. Indoor malls led the pack, with YoY visits up 1.8%, while open-air shopping centers saw visits grow 0.6% YoY and outlet mall traffic remained relatively flat at -0.8%. And all mall formats experienced a rise in average visit duration – with indoor malls once again seeing the largest average dwell time increase of 3.3% – suggesting an improvement in visit quality and consumer engagement.
But while indoor malls led in terms of short-term growth, comparing current visitation to pre-COVID patterns revealed the longer-term strength of the open-air format – the only shopping center type to surpass pre-pandemic levels, with visits up 0.3% compared to H1 2019. At the same time, indoor malls' average visit duration has recovered more closely to 2019 levels – perhaps suggesting that visit quality is improving at indoor malls faster than the visit quantity.
Looking at quarterly visit data since the pandemic also highlights the visitation success of open-air shopping centers and the recent comeback of indoor malls.
Open-air shopping centers are the only type of mall where visits consistently met or exceeded pre-pandemic levels over the past two years, with Q2 '25 visits 2.7% higher than in Q2 '19. But indoor malls narrowed the gap significantly this past quarter – with Q2 '25 visits just 1.1% lower than in Q2 2019, marking their strongest performance since 2020 – suggesting that the post-pandemic indoor mall story is still being written.
While June's softness may reflect natural demand normalization after spring's tariff-driven shopping surge, the broader YoY H1 2025 trends show shopping centers generally exceeding last year's visit levels with average visit duration also on the rise. And while visit quantity and quality is generally not quite back to pre-COVID levels, the data suggests that the recovery story is very much still being written.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Summer 2025 has arrived, and airports are gearing up for travelers heading out on long-awaited vacations.
We analyzed airport traffic on a nationwide, statewide, and DMA level to assess how the sector stands ahead of one of the year's busiest travel periods.
Summers are typically busy periods for airports as people head out to visit family and friends and take advantage of summer vacations. But going into the 2025 summer travel season, airport visits (excluding traffic from international visitors) have been lagging, with year-over-year (YoY) visits down since February 2025. And while some of the dip may be attributed to a normalization of traffic following the post-COVID recovery, the softer airport visitation trends could also indicate a slower travel season ahead.
Still, diving into airport visits by state reveals pockets of growth – specifically in New England and in the Northwest. Maine, Vermont, and Rhode Island led the country in terms of YoY visit growth in May 2025, with Connecticut and New Hampshire also seeing positive YoY airport visit trends. In the Northwest, May 2025 airport visits also increased YoY in South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana, Oregon, North Dakota and Idaho.
The strong airport performance in these states indicates that certain regions – perhaps those with outdoor recreation appeal – are still seeing robust visitor activity despite the wider cool down.
Plotting May 2025 YoY airport visits by DMA on a map provides a visual representation of this trend – and highlights other pockets of airport visit growth throughout the country.
For example, while overall airport visits in Florida declined 4.3% YoY in May 2025, airport visits in Tampa-St. Petersburg, Panama City, and Ft. Myers-Naples DMAs all increased. And California, which saw an overall 3.0% dip in airport visits, also saw airport visit bumps in several DMAs, including Bakersfield, Monterey-Selinas, Fresno-Visalia DMAs.
These localized bright spots suggest that while the broader travel recovery may be plateauing, specific markets continue to show resilience and growth potential.
The overall decline in airport visits may suggest a cooling in domestic tourism ahead of summer 2025, perhaps marking the end of the broad-based travel surge of recent years. This shift away from widespread growth suggests that travelers are becoming more discerning in their travel choices, perhaps favoring destinations that offer authentic experiences, natural beauty, or seasonal advantages.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
As value continues to dominate consumer behavior in 2025, full-service restaurants (FSRs) are finding creative ways to adapt to rising costs and shifting consumer priorities. We dove into the data to find out which FSR segments are winning this year and what’s driving these trends.
Despite ongoing anxiety about the economy, FSR visitation trends show that consumers continue to seek out opportunities to enjoy sit-down meals outside the home. During the first five months of 2025, casual dining chains and upscale restaurants both saw largely positive year-over-year visit growth, with only February and March registering YoY declines. And crucially, in May 2025 – a pivotal month for FSRs thanks to Mother’s Day, the industry’s busiest day of the year – both segments saw increases in total visits and average visits per location.
Still, there remain important differences between the two FSR categories. For casual dining, average visits per location grew faster than segment-wide foot traffic, reflecting a reduction in the number of locations over the past year as some brands implemented rightsizing initiatives. The positive gain in per-location gain suggests that those efforts are paying off, boosting visitation at remaining sites.
Meanwhile, for upscale dining chains, the opposite dynamic occurred – overall visit growth outpaced average visits per location. Even so, per-location visits rose YoY here as well, indicating that continued expansion is meeting robust demand.
A closer look at trends in casual dining – by far the larger of the two FSR segments – shows significant differences among cuisine types. Much like upscale concepts, casual dining steakhouses saw total foot traffic growth rise faster than per-location visits as chains like Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse continued to grow while maintaining momentum at existing locations. Against a backdrop of soaring beef prices, the draw of affordable, high-quality steaks remains particularly strong.
American-style restaurants, for their parts – many of which have focused on rightsizing – recorded especially robust per-location visit growth, buoyed by compelling value offers from major players like Chili's and Applebee's. And Italian-themed casual dining also performed well YoY.
However, not all casual dining categories have fared as well. Breakfast-oriented chains experienced a modest YoY decline, while the Mexican segment suffered the steepest dip – likely due in part to On the Border Mexican Grill & Cantina’s recent Chapter 11 filing, which was accompanied by the closure of dozens of locations. The segment has likely also been impacted by stiff competition from popular fast-casual brands like Chipotle and Qdoba that offer tasty, quality Mexican-inspired cuisine at more of a bargain.
The rising popularity of steakhouses is further underscored by shifts in casual dining visit share. Since 2019, steakhouses have seen their slice of total visits to the above categories climb from 14.0% to 18.1% in 2025, primarily at the expense of American-style concepts, whose share declined from 45.4% to 43.7% over the same period. Still, American chains have regained some ground over the past year, thanks in part to Chili’s strong comeback.
Looking ahead, the steady increases in per-location visits for both casual and upscale dining signal the industry’s overall resilience. What lies in store for FSRs as 2025 wears on?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
As competition intensifies from drive-thru rivals and at-home coffee trends, Starbucks is doubling down on unique in-store experiences and AI-powered service improvements to reignite customer visit frequency.
But how likely are these moves to revitalize the company? We dove into the data to find out.
As the “Back to Starbucks” plan continues to take shape under CEO Brian Niccol, Starbucks finds itself banking on a familiar recipe for success: innovation. The company's recent announcement that it is testing a new protein-enhanced cold foam is a key example of its strategy to re-engage customers. The coffee chain also hopes to boost efficiency and free up employees to engage more with customers through its new “Green Apron” service model.
These moves suggest that Starbucks is focused on driving more consistent and loyal visits through thoughtful menu additions and the restoration of its “coffeehouse feel” rather than relying on temporary discounts – which often provide only a short-term lift without fostering lasting repeat business.
This strategic pivot is crucial as the company works to revitalize its brand. And while Starbucks' plans to return to its "coffeehouse roots" will take time to fully implement, it is building from a position of underlying strength. Data shows that the total number of unique customers visiting Starbucks has remained remarkably consistent over the past several years.
However, the core challenge lies in the fact that individual visit frequency has stagnated, meaning those loyal customers are simply coming back less often, turning instead to competitors or at-home coffee. This presents a clear opportunity: If Starbucks can give its large, established customer base new reasons to visit, it can unlock significant growth. And the narrowing of the company’s visit gap in 2025 so far – with both January and April seeing positive year-over-year visit growth – further underscores the company’s underlying strength.
The urgency for Starbucks’ turnaround is amplified by competition from all sides. The market has seen a surge in new, efficient drive-thru coffee concepts like Dutch Bros, 7 Brew, PJ’s Coffee and others that cater to consumers seeking speed and convenience. Simultaneously, Starbucks faces continued pressure from the at-home coffee trend, with many consumers opting to get their caffeine fix from grocery store purchases. By focusing on unique, in-store-only innovations like protein-boosted beverages, Starbucks aims to give customers an experience they can't replicate at home or get from a faster rival, providing a compelling reason to make that return visit.
For more data-driven dining insights visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Darden recently announced that it was considering ceasing operations for one of its chains, Bahama Breeze, following the closure of 15 of its 43 locations in May 2025.
Visit data for the brand highlights the struggles the Caribbean-inspired chain has faced in recent years. Year-over-year (YoY) visits were down in every year analyzed, and monthly visits declined in all but three of the past 12 months. The chain appeared particularly hard-hit starting in 2025, which may have been a consideration in Darden's decision to shutter Bahama Breeze locations.
Whether Darden plans to keep the remaining 28 Bahama Breeze restaurants operational or opt for a full sale remains to be seen, but the recent foot traffic challenges facing the brand position it for a strategic pivot – or more drastic measures.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
1. Market Divergence: While San Francisco's return-to-office trends have stabilized, Los Angeles is increasingly lagging behind national averages with office visits down 46.6% compared to pre-pandemic levels as of June 2025.
2. Commuter Pattern Shifts: Los Angeles faces a persistent decline in out-of-market commuters while San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters has recovered slightly, indicating deeper structural challenges in LA's office market recovery.
3. Visit vs. Visitor Gap: Unlike other markets where increased visits per worker offset declining visitor numbers, Los Angeles saw both metrics decline year-over-year, suggesting fundamental workforce retention issues.
4. Century City Exception: Century City emerges as LA's strongest office submarket with visits only 28.1% below pre-pandemic levels, driven by its premium amenities and strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center.
5. Demographic Advantage: Century City's success may stem from its success in attracting affluent, educated young professionals who value lifestyle integration and are more likely to maintain consistent office attendance in hybrid work arrangements.
While return-to-office trends have stabilized in many markets nationwide, Los Angeles and San Francisco face unique challenges that set them apart from national patterns. This report examines the divergent trajectories of these two major West Coast markets, with particular focus on Los Angeles' ongoing struggles and the emergence of one specific submarket that bucks broader trends.
Through analysis of commuter patterns, demographic shifts, and localized performance data, we explore how factors ranging from out-of-market workforce changes to amenity-driven location advantages are reshaping the competitive landscape for office real estate in Southern California.
Both Los Angeles and San Francisco continue to significantly underperform the national office occupancy average. In June 2025, average nationwide visits to office buildings were 30.5% below January 2019 levels, compared to a 46.6% and 46.4% decline in visits to Los Angeles and San Francisco offices, respectively.
While both cities now show similar RTO rates, they arrived there through different trajectories. San Francisco has consistently lagged behind national return-to-office levels since pandemic restrictions first lifted.
Los Angeles, however, initially mirrored nationwide trends before its office market began diverging and falling behind around mid-2022.
The decline in office visits in Los Angeles and San Francisco can be partly attributed to fewer out-of-market commuters. Both cities saw significant drops in the percentage of employees who live outside the city but commute to work between H1 2019 and H1 2023.
However, here too, the two cities diverged in recent years: San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters relative to local employees rebounded between 2023 and 2024, while Los Angeles' continued to decline – another indication that LA's RTO is decelerating as San Francisco stabilizes.
Like in other markets, Los Angeles saw a larger drop in office visits than in office visitors when comparing current trends to pre-pandemic levels. This is consistent with the shift to hybrid work arrangements, where many of the workers who returned to the office are coming in less frequently than before the pandemic, leading to a larger drop in visits compared to the drop in visitors.
But looking at the trajectory of RTO more recently shows that in most markets – including San Francisco – office visits are up year-over-year (YoY) while visitor numbers are down. This suggests that the workers slated to return to the office have already done so, and increasing the numbers of visits per visitor is now the path towards increased office occupancy.
In Los Angeles, visits also outperformed visitors – but both figures were down YoY (the gap in visits was smaller than the gap in visitors). So while the visitors who did head to the office in LA in Q2 2025 clocked in more visits per person compared to Q2 2024, the increase in visits per visitor was not enough to offset the decline in office visitors.
While Los Angeles may be lagging in terms of its overall office recovery, the city does have pockets of strength – most notably Century City. In Q2 2025, the number of inbound commuters visiting the neighborhood was just 24.7% lower than it was in Q2 2019 and higher (+1.0%) than last year's levels.
According to Colliers' Q2 2025 report, Century City accounts for 27% of year-to-date leasing activity in West Los Angeles – more than double any other submarket – and commands the highest asking rental rates. The area benefits from Trophy and Class A office towers that may create a flight-to-quality dynamic where tenants migrate from urban core locations to this Westside submarket.
The submarket's success is likely bolstered by its strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center – visit data reveals that 45% of weekday commuters to Century City also visited Westfield Century City during Q2 2025. The convenience of accessing the mall's extensive retail, dining, and entertainment options during lunch breaks or after work may encourage employees to come into the office more frequently.
Perhaps thanks to its strategic locations and amenities-rich office buildings, Century City succeeds in attracting relatively affluent office workers.
Century City's office submarket has a higher median trade area household income (HHI) than either mid-Wilshire or Downtown LA. The neighborhood also attracts significant shares of the "Educated Urbanite" Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment – defined as "well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs".
This demographic typically has fewer family obligations and greater flexibility in their work arrangements, making them more likely to embrace hybrid schedules that include regular office attendance. Affluent singles also tend to value the lifestyle amenities and networking opportunities that come with working in a premium office environment like Century City: This demographic is often in career-building phases where in-person collaboration and visibility matter more, driving consistent office utilization that helps sustain the submarket's performance even as other LA office areas struggle with lower occupancy rates.
The higher disposable income of this audience also aligns well with the submarket's upscale retail and dining options at nearby Westfield Century City, creating a mutually reinforcing ecosystem where the office environment and surrounding amenities cater to their preferences.
As the broader Los Angeles market grapples with a shrinking commuter base and declining office utilization, the performance gap between premium, amenity-rich locations and traditional office districts is likely to widen. For investors and tenants alike, these trends underscore the growing importance of location quality, demographic targeting, and lifestyle integration in determining long-term office market viability across Southern California.
Century City's success – anchored by its affluent, career-focused workforce and integrated lifestyle amenities – can offer a blueprint for office market resilience in the hybrid work era.
1. Appetite for offline retail & dining is stronger than ever. Both retail and dining visits were higher in H1 2025 than they were pre-pandemic.
2. Consumers are willing to go the extra mile for the perfect product or brand. The era of one-stop-shops may be waning, as many consumers now prefer to visit multiple chains or stores to score the perfect product match for every item on their shopping list.
3. Value – and value perception – gives chains a clear advantage. Value-oriented retail and dining segments have seen their visits skyrocket since the pandemic.
4. Consumer behavior has bifurcated toward budget and premium options. This trend is driving strength at the ends of the spectrum while putting pressure on many middle-market players.
5. The out-of-home entertainment landscape has been fundamentally altered. Eatertainment and museums have stabilized at a different set point than pre-COVID, while movie theater traffic trends are now characterized by box-office-driven volatility.
6. Hybrid work permanently reshaped office utilization. Visits to office buildings nationwide are still 33.3% below 2019 levels, despite RTO efforts.
The first half of 2025 marked five years since the onset of the pandemic – an event that continues to impact retail, dining, entertainment, and office visitation trends today.
This report analyzes visitation patterns in the first half of 2025 compared to H1 2019 and H1 2024 to identify some of the lasting shifts in consumer behavior over the past five years. What is driving consumers to stores and dining venues? Which categories are stabilizing at a higher visit point? Where have the traffic declines stalled? And which segments are still in flux? Read the report to find out.
In the first half of 2025, visits to both the retail and dining segments were consistently higher than they were in 2019. In both the dining and the retail space, the increases compared to pre-COVID were probably driven by significant expansions from major players, including Costco, Chick-fil-A, Raising Cane's, and Dutch Bros, which offset the numerous retail and dining closures of recent years.
The overall increase in visits indicates that, despite the ubiquity of online marketplaces and delivery services, consumer appetite for offline retail and dining remains strong – whether to browse in store, eat on-premises, collect a BOPIS order, or pick up takeaway.
A closer look at the chart above also reveals that, while both retail and dining visits have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, retail visit growth has slightly outpaced the dining traffic increase.
The larger volume of retail visits could be due to a shift in consumer behavior – from favoring convenience to prioritizing the perfect product match and exhibiting a willingness to visit multiple chains to benefit from each store's signature offering. Indeed, zooming into the superstore and grocery sector shows an increase in cross-shopping since COVID, with a larger share of visitors to major grocery chains regularly visiting superstores and wholesale clubs. It seems, then, that many consumers are no longer looking for a one-stop-shop where they can buy everything at once. Instead, shoppers may be heading to the grocery stores for some things, the dollar store for other items, and the wholesale club for a third set of products.
This trend also explains the success of limited assortment grocers in recent years – shoppers are willing to visit these stores to pick up their favorite snack or a particularly cheap store-branded basic, knowing that this will be just one of several stops on their grocery run.
Diving into the traffic data by retail category reveals that much of the growth in retail visits since COVID can be attributed to the surge in visits to value-oriented categories, such as discount & dollar stores, value grocery stores, and off-price apparel. This period has been defined by an endless array of economic obstacles like inflation, recession concerns, gas price spikes, and tariffs that all trigger an orientation to value. The shift also speaks to an ability of these categories to capitalize on swings – consumers who visited value-oriented retailers to cut costs in the short term likely continued visiting those chains even after their economic situation stabilized.
Some of the visit increases are due to the aggressive expansion strategies of leaders in those categories – including Dollar General and Dollar Tree, Aldi, and all the off-price leaders. But the dramatic increase in traffic – around 30% for all three categories since H1 2019 – also highlights the strong appetite for value-oriented offerings among today's consumers. And zooming into YoY trends shows that the visit growth is still ongoing, indicating that the demand for value has not yet reached a ceiling.
While affordable pricing has clearly driven success for value retailers, offering low prices isn't a guaranteed path to growth. Although traffic to beauty and wellness chains remains significantly higher than in 2019, this growth has now plateaued – even top performers like Ulta saw slight YoY declines following their post-pandemic surge – despite the relatively affordable price points found at these chains.
Some of the beauty visit declines likely stems from consumers cutting discretionary spending – but off-price apparel's ongoing success in the same non-essential category suggests budget constraints aren't the full story. Instead, the plateauing of beauty and drugstore visits while off-price apparel visits boom may be due to the difference in value perception: Off-price retailers are inherently associated with savings, while drugstores and beauty retailers, despite carrying affordable items, lack that same value-driven brand positioning. This may suggest that in today's market, perceived value matters as much as actual affordability.
Another indicator of the importance of value perception is the decline in visits to chains selling bigger-ticket items – both home furnishing chains and electronic stores saw double-digit drops in traffic since H1 2019.
And looking at YoY trends shows that visits here have stabilized – like in the beauty and drugstore categories – suggesting that these sectors have reached a new baseline that reflects permanently shifted consumer priorities around discretionary spending.
A major post-pandemic consumer trend has been the bifurcation of consumer spending – with high-end chains and discount retailers thriving while the middle falls behind. This trend is particularly evident in the apparel space – although off-price visits have taken off since 2019 (as illustrated in the earlier graph) overall apparel traffic declined dramatically – while luxury apparel traffic is 7.6% higher than in 2019.
Dining traffic trends also illustrate this shift: Categories that typically offer lower price points such as QSR, fast casual, and coffee have expanded significantly since 2019, as has the upscale & fine dining segment. But casual dining – which includes classic full-service chains such as Red Lobster, Applebee's, and TGI Fridays – has seen its footprint shrink in recent years as consumers trade down to lower-priced options or visit higher-end venues for special occasions.
Chili's has been a major exception to the casual dining downturn, largely driven by the chain's success in cementing its value-perception among consumers – suggesting that casual dining chains can still shine in the current climate by positioning themselves as leaders in value.
Consumers' current value orientation seems to be having an impact beyond the retail and dining space: When budgets are tight, spending money in one place means having less money to spend in another – and recent data suggests that the consumer resilience in retail and dining may be coming at the expense of travel – or perhaps experiences more generally.
While airport visits from domestic travelers were up compared to pre-COVID, diving into the data reveals that the growth is mostly driven by frequent travelers visiting airports two or more times in a month. Meanwhile, the number of more casual travelers – those visiting airports no more than once a month – is lower than it was in 2019.
This may suggest that – despite consumers' self-reported preferences for "memorable, shareable moments" – at least some Americans are actually de-prioritizing experiences in the first half of 2025, and choosing instead to spend their budgets in retail and dining venues.
The out of home entertainment landscape has also undergone a significant change since COVID – and the sector seems to have settled into a new equilibrium, though for part of the sector, the equilibrium is marked by consistent volatility.
Eatertainment chains – led by significant expansions from venues like Top Golf – saw a 5.5% visit increase compared to pre-pandemic levels, though YoY growth remained modest at 1.1%. On the other hand, H1 2025 museum traffic fell 10.9% below 2019 levels with flat YoY performance (+0.2%). The minimal year-over-year changes in both categories suggest that these entertainment segments have found their new post-COVID equilibrium.
The rise of eatertainment alongside the drop in museum visits may also reflect the intense focus on value for today's consumers. Museums in 2025 offer essentially the same value proposition that they offered in 2019 – and for some, that value proposition may no longer justify the entrance fee. But eatertainment has gained popularity in recent years as a format that offers consumers more bang for their buck relative to stand-alone dining or entertainment venues – which makes it the perfect candidate for success in today's value-driven consumer landscape.
But movie theaters traffic trends are still evolving – even accounting for venue closures, visits in H1 2025 were well below H1 2019 levels. But compared to 2024, movie traffic was also up – buoyed by the release of several blockbusters that drove audiences back to cinemas in the first half of 2025. So while the segment is still far from its pre-COVID baseline, movie theaters retain the potential for significant traffic spikes when compelling content drives consumer demand.
The blockbuster-driven YoY increase can perhaps also be linked to consumers' spending caution. With budgets tight, movie-goers may want to make sure that they're spending time and money on films they are sure to enjoy – taking fewer risks than they did in 2019, when movie tickets and concession prices were lower and consumers were less budget-conscious.
H1 2025 also brought some moderate good news on the return to office (RTO) front, with YoY visits nationwide up 2.1% and most offices seeing YoY office visit increases – perhaps due to the plethora of RTO mandates from major companies. But comparing office visitation levels to pre pandemic levels highlights the way left to go – nationwide visits were 33.3% below H1 2019 levels in H1 2025, with even RTO leaders New York and Miami still seeing 11.9% and 16.1% visit gaps, respectively.
So while the data suggests that the office recovery story is still being written – with visits inching up slowly – the substantial gap from pre-pandemic levels suggests that remote and hybrid work models have fundamentally reshaped office utilization patterns.
Five years post-pandemic, consumer behavior across the retail, dining, entertainment, and office spaces has crystallized into distinct new patterns.
Traffic to retail and dining venues now surpasses pre-pandemic levels, driven primarily by value-focused segments. But retail and dining segments that cater to higher income consumers –such as luxury apparel and fine dining – have also stabilized at a higher level, highlighting the bifurcation of consumer behavior that has emerged in recent years. Entertainment formats show more variability – while eatertainment traffic has settled above and museums below 2019 levels, and movie theaters still seeking stability. Office spaces remain the laggard, with visits well below pre-pandemic levels despite corporate return-to-office initiatives showing modest impact.
It seems, then, that the new consumer landscape rewards businesses that can clearly articulate their value proposition to attract consumers' increasingly selective spending and time allocation – or offer a premium product or experience catering to higher-income audiences.
