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Article
Frozen Yogurt's Comeback Is More Than Nostalgia
Elizabeth Lafontaine
Jul 28, 2026
1 minute

Frozen Yogurt Is Outpacing Traditional Ice Cream

Frozen yogurt is no longer a 2010s relic, although many would argue the trend never left. Placer.ai data shows visits to frozen yogurt chains posted positive year-over-year growth in nearly every week of the first half of 2026, at times topping 18%. Traditional ice cream shops, by contrast, swung repeatedly into negative territory, dipping as low as -8.5% YoY in several weeks. The gap suggests froyo isn't just riding the broader dessert category's coattails; it's carving out its own lane. 

Frozen Yogurt Chains Outpace Ice Cream in Year-over-Year Visit Growth

Weekly Change in Visits vs. Same Week in 2025, Jan–Jul 2026

The comeback is playing out most visibly in New York City, where new-generation shops like Myka, Mimi's, and Birdie's have reframed froyo as a design-forward, protein-friendly lifestyle product rather than a diet dessert. Lines have been forming around the block, a sign that frozen yogurt is the latest viral treat appealing to easily influenced consumers. 

A Weekend Ritual

The day-of-week breakdown backs this up. Friday and Saturday alone account for roughly 36% of weekly visits to frozen yogurt chains, edging out ice cream's weekend share. That skew points to froyo becoming a planned, social outing rather than an impulse stop, more akin to a coffee run than a drive-by treat.

Frozen Yogurt Skews More to the Weekend Than Ice Cream

Share of Weekly Visits by Day of Week, Jan 1–Jul 18, 2026

For more data-driven restaurant insights, visit placer.ai/anchor

Article
Sweetgreen Rebounds & CAVA Keeps Climbing
Shira Petrack
Jul 27, 2026
2 minutes

Sweetgreen & CAVA Outperform Category in Q2 2026

Both sweetgreen and CAVA delivered strong year-over-year (YoY) visit growth in Q2 2026, outperforming both the broader restaurant industry and the fast-casual category despite a challenging consumer environment. While the industry-wide cyclosporiasis outbreak that emerged in July has introduced a new source of uncertainty – particularly for produce-centric concepts like Sweetgreen – both brands seem to be entering the second half of the year with considerable underlying momentum. 

Wraps Drive Same-Store Growth at Sweetgreen While CAVA Continues to Build Momentum

Even more encouraging was the acceleration in same-store traffic. CAVA, which has posted positive same-store visit growth in nearly every month over the past year, delivered two of its strongest results in Q2, with existing restaurant visits increasing 7.7% in April and 7.9% in June. This continued acceleration suggests CAVA's growth remains supported by healthy demand at existing restaurants, reinforcing confidence that its expansion story is being driven by underlying consumer strength rather than new unit openings alone.

Sweetgreen also showed notable improvement, reversing nearly a year of negative same-store traffic as same-store visits rose 1.0% in May and 3.9% in June. The improvement coincided with the nationwide launch of wraps on May 6th, suggesting the menu expansion may already be helping broaden the chain's appeal and drive stronger demand at existing restaurants. As one of the most visible initiatives under sweetgreen's Sweet Growth Transformation Plan, the wraps may also provide an early indication that the company's broader strategy is beginning to translate into stronger customer demand.

Strong Momentum at CAVA, Encouraging Progress at Sweetgreen

While sweetgreen and CAVA enter earnings from very different positions, Q2 visitation trends suggest both companies have reasons for optimism. CAVA continues to demonstrate that rapid expansion has not come at the expense of existing restaurant performance, while sweetgreen's improving same-store traffic suggests recent operational initiatives and menu innovation may be beginning to gain traction. Although macroeconomic headwinds remain, both brands appear well positioned heading into earnings, with visitation trends indicating resilient consumer demand.

Article
Why Chipotle and McDonald's Took Different Paths in Q2 2026
Shira Petrack
Jul 24, 2026
2 minutes

Same Headwinds, Different Outcomes

Chipotle and McDonald's have spent the past year navigating significant headwinds, as rising gas prices, tighter household budgets, and cautious discretionary spending pressured restaurant traffic – particularly among lower-income households.

Still, the shared macro backdrop produced very different outcomes. Chipotle generated 4.7% year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth in Q2, while McDonald's visits fell 4.5%. 

Chipotle's Demand Story Is Improving

Because Chipotle is continuing to expand, overall traffic growth naturally outpaced same-store performance – though visitation at existing locations remained positive throughout Q2 2026 as well, ending the quarter 1.8% above year-ago levels. So after a difficult 2025 that saw slowing traffic, negative comparable sales, and reduced guidance raise investor concerns about the pace of Chipotle's growth, visitation trends suggest demand may be stabilizing.

Customer Demographics May Explain McDonald's Underperformance

Unlike Chipotle, McDonald's U.S. footprint remained relatively stable, so same-store traffic closely mirrored overall visitation, with both declining year over year (YoY) throughout Q2 2026. The divergence between the two chains may partly reflect differences in their customer bases. Only 30.1% of Chipotle visitors came from trade areas with median household incomes below $50K, while nearly a quarter came from areas with median household incomes above $150K. By comparison, 36.1% of McDonald's visitors came from trade areas with median household incomes below $50K, while just 17.5% came from areas above $150K, suggesting its customer base was likely more exposed to higher gas prices and rising food costs.

Looking Beyond a Challenging Quarter

While McDonald's softer Q2 traffic warrants monitoring, the timing suggests the slowdown should be viewed in the context of an unusually challenging environment for lower-income consumers rather than as definitive evidence of weakening brand relevance. If pressure from higher gas prices and food costs begins to ease, the chain could be well positioned to benefit as its core customer regains spending power.

For more data-driven restaurant insights, visit placer.ai/anchor 

Article
Traffic Data Suggests Starbucks' Turnaround Is Gaining Traction
Shira Petrack
Jul 23, 2026

Starbucks' Traffic Trends Turn Consistently Positive

Nearly two years into its "Back to Starbucks" strategy, the company's traffic trends suggest the turnaround is gaining traction. Overall visits increased year over year (YoY) in every month of the past 12 months, with Q2 2026 traffic up 2.6% despite higher gas prices and broader macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on discretionary spending. Same-store traffic has also remained positive since October 2025 and has outpaced overall visit growth in recent months, reflecting the impact of the company's portfolio rationalization.

More Customers Are Returning More Often

The repeat-visit data also suggests that the strategy is resonating. From January through June 2026, the share of Starbucks customers visiting at least twice per month exceeded 2025 levels almost months, indicating that the chain is not only attracting more customers (with a 1.3% YoY increase in overall visitors in H1 2026) but is also encouraging more frequent use.

Turning Frequency Into Sustainable Growth

The visitation data, along with the increase in repeat customers, suggests Starbucks' operational improvements are beginning to translate into stronger customer retention. If Starbucks can continue converting occasional guests into regular visitors, the company appears increasingly well positioned to translate operational improvements into durable growth.

Article
Dutch Bros' Traffic Trends Suggest the Growth Story Remains Intact
Shira Petrack
Jul 22, 2026
2 minutes

Overall Traffic Grew Even as Same-Store Visits Moderated 

Overall visits to Dutch Bros increased year over year (YoY) every month over the past year, with Q2 2026 traffic up 7.7%, even as same-store visits softened. 

Given Dutch Bros' relatively young, middle-income customer base, higher transportation costs may have disproportionately pressured visit frequency among existing customers, even as new store openings continued to drive systemwide traffic growth. Indeed, the timing of the dip – beginning in March 2026, just as gas prices started to skyrocket – suggests macro pressures rather than weakening brand demand may explain part of the moderation in comparable-store trends.

Morning Momentum Is Building

Management has consistently identified the morning daypart as one of Dutch Bros' largest growth opportunities, with initiatives including expanded food offerings, mobile ordering, and beverage innovation designed to make the chain a stronger breakfast destination.

And visitation data suggests those efforts are gaining traction, with Dutch Bros posting its strongest YoY traffic gains before noon during Q2, substantially outperforming the broader coffee category throughout most of the morning. While the company remains known for its afternoon beverage business, continued gains during morning commute hours suggest it is expanding into a much larger addressable occasion rather than simply strengthening its existing niche.

Multiple Growth Drivers Remain Intact

If macro pressures prove temporary, Dutch Bros could benefit from both continued unit expansion and an improvement in visit frequency among its existing customer base. Combined with encouraging momentum in the morning daypart, that would give the company multiple avenues for sustaining traffic growth even as comparisons become more challenging.

Article
How Tailored Brands Went From Bankruptcy to IPO
Explore how Tailored Brands rebounded from bankruptcy to IPO, with Men's Wearhouse and Jos. A. Bank outperforming the apparel category ahead of its public debut.
Shira Petrack
Jul 21, 2026
2 minutes

How Tailored Brands Went From Bankruptcy to IPO

From Structural Headwinds to Stability

When Tailored Brands filed for bankruptcy in August 2020, the immediate catalyst was the pandemic, which shuttered stores and sharply reduced demand for suits and other formalwear. But the company was already facing structural headwinds. As workplace attire became more casual and consumers had fewer occasions to dress up, Men's Wearhouse, Jos. A. Bank, and K&G Fashion Superstore had already begun losing ground to the broader apparel category in 2019. The pandemic accelerated those challenges, widening the traffic gap as consumers had even fewer reasons to put on a suit and tie.

But following the reopening surge of 2021 and 2022 and a normalization period through 2024, all three banners had largely closed the gap with the broader full-price apparel category, with year-over-year (YoY) traffic trends returning to roughly in line with the sector.

Men's Wearhouse & Jos. A. Bank Are Now Outpacing the Apparel Category

Since mid-2025, Jos. A. Bank and Men's Wearhouse have consistently outperformed the full-service apparel category in terms of YoY visit growth, perhaps helped by return-to-office policies and a renewed appreciation for tailored apparel for work and special occasions. The performance aligns with Tailored Brands' IPO thesis that investments in merchandising, brand repositioning, and omnichannel capabilities have strengthened its competitive position. 

K&G Fashion Superstore's visitation trends have been more mixed, with traffic softening in recent months. But the divergence coincided with the sharp rise in gas prices beginning in spring 2026, and may reflect the banner's greater exposure to value-oriented, lower-income shoppers rather than a broader deterioration in the business. Notably, Tailored Brands continues to position K&G as a long-term growth vehicle in its IPO filing, including plans to expand the banner's store footprint, suggesting management views the recent softness as temporary rather than structural.

The Next Chapter 

Tailored Brands' visitation trends suggest the business has moved beyond simply recovering from the pandemic. For potential investors, the key question now is whether the company can continue converting renewed demand into sustained market share gains. 

For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor 

Reports
INSIDER
Report
2026 CRE Outlook
Read the report to find out which markets are gaining ground in office recovery, where retail traffic is strongest, and how population shifts are reshaping demand.
March 19, 2026

Commercial real estate in 2026 is characterized by differentiated performance across markets and asset types. Office recovery trajectories vary meaningfully by metro, retail performance reflects format-specific resilience, and domestic migration patterns continue to influence long-term demand fundamentals.


Return to Office Patterns 

Many higher-income metros continue to trail 2019 benchmarks but drive the strongest Year-over-year gains, signaling a potential inflection in office utilization trends.

Miami Continued Leading RTO in 2025; San Francisco Led the Year-over-Year Office Recovery

Major Insights:

• Sunbelt markets along with New York, NY are closest to pre-pandemic office visit levels, while many coastal gateway and tech-heavy markets trail 2019 benchmarks. 

• Many of the metros still furthest below pre-pandemic levels are now posting the strongest year-over-year gains.

Key Takeaways for CRE Professionals: 

• Leasing velocity may accelerate in coastal markets – particularly in high-quality assets – even if full recovery remains distant. The expansion of AI-driven firms and innovation-focused employers could support incremental demand in these ecosystems, reinforcing a bifurcation between top-tier buildings and the broader office inventory.

Median Household Income in Market Correlates With Office Recovery

Major Insights:

• Higher-income metros such as San Francisco show deeper structural gaps vs 2019, perhaps due to their higher concentration of hybrid-eligible workers – yet those same metros are driving the strongest YoY recovery in 2025.

• Accelerating growth in 2025 suggests that shifting employer policies, workplace enhancements, or broader labor dynamics may be beginning to drive increased in-office activity.

Key Takeaway for CRE Professionals: 

• Office performance in higher-income markets will increasingly depend on workplace quality and policy alignment. Assets that support premium amenities, modern design, and tenants implementing clear in-office expectations are likely to influence sustained office visits and leasing velocity in these metros.


Shopping Center Patterns

Retail traffic is broadly improving across states, though performance varies by region and format.

Shopping Center Visits Increased in 2025

Major Insights:

• Retail traffic growth is broad-based, with the majority of states showing year-over-year gains in shopping center traffic in 2025.

• Still, even as many states are posting gains, pockets of softer performance remain – specifically in parts of the Southeast and Midwest. 

Key Takeaway for CRE Professionals: 

• Broad-based traffic gains indicate consumer demand is more durable than anticipated. In growth states, operators can shift from defensive stabilization to capturing upside – pushing rents, upgrading tenant quality, and accelerating leasing while momentum holds. In softer markets, the focus should remain on protecting traffic through strong anchors and necessity-driven tenancy.

Convenience-Based Performance Pulling Ahead

Major Insights: 

• Convenience-oriented formats are leading traffic growth, with strip/convenience centers materially outperforming all other shopping center types, and neighborhood and community centers also posting gains. This reinforces the strength of proximity-driven, daily-needs retail.

• Destination retail formats, including regional malls and factory outlets, continue to lag, while super-regional malls were essentially flat. Larger-format, discretionary-driven centers are not capturing the same momentum as convenience-based formats.

Key Takeaway for CRE Professionals: 

• The data suggests that consumer behavior continues to favor convenience, frequency, and necessity over destination-based shopping. Operators should lean into service-oriented and daily-needs tenancy in strip and neighborhood formats, while mall operators may need to further reposition assets toward experiential, mixed-use, or non-retail uses to stabilize traffic. 


Migration Patterns 

Domestic migration continues to reshape state-level demand, with gains clustering in select growth corridors.

Northern Planes, Southeast Lead State-Level Migration Growth

Major Insights: 

• Domestic migration drove population gains in parts of the Southeast and Northern Plains, while several Western and Northeastern states show flat or negative migration.

• Some previously strong in-migration states in the South and West, including Texas and Utah, are showing softer movement, while other established migration leaders such as Florida and the Carolinas continue to attract net inbound residents.

Key Takeaway for CRE Professionals: 

• Migration flows are shifting relative to prior years. Operators should temper growth assumptions in states where inflows are slowing and prioritize markets where inbound demand remains strong.

Florida Metros Magnet For Domestic Migration

Major Insights: 

• Florida dominates metro-level migration growth, with eight of the top ten U.S. metros for net domestic migration are in Florida.

• The markets with the strongest domestic migration-driven population gains are not major gateway cities but smaller, often retirement- or lifestyle-oriented metros, suggesting that migration-driven demand is increasingly flowing to secondary markets.

Key Takeaway for CRE Professionals: 

• CRE operators should prioritize expansion, leasing, and site selection in high-growth secondary metros where population inflows can directly translate into retail spending, housing absorption, and service demand.

INSIDER
Report
5 Grocery Growth Drivers in 2026
How Expanded Supply, Trip Frequency, and Shopping Missions Are Reshaping Food Retail and Creating Multiple Paths to Growth
February 19, 2026

Key Takeaways

1. Expanded grocery supply is increasing overall category engagement. New locations and deeper food assortments across formats are bringing shoppers into the category more often, rather than fragmenting demand.

2. Grocery visit growth is being driven by low- and middle-income households. Elevated food costs are leading to more frequent, budget-conscious trips, reinforcing grocery’s role as a non-discretionary category.

3. Short, frequent trips are a major driver of brick-and-mortar traffic growth. Fill-in shopping, deal-seeking, and omnichannel behaviors are pushing visit frequency higher, even as trip duration declines.

4. Scale is accelerating consolidation among large grocery chains. Larger retailers are using their size to invest in value, assortment, private label, and execution, allowing them to capture longer and more engaged shopping trips.

5. Both large and small grocers have viable paths to growth. Large chains are winning by competing for the full grocery list, while smaller banners can grow by specializing, owning specific missions, or offering compelling value that earns them a place in shoppers’ routines.

What is Driving Grocery Growth in 2026?

While much of the retail conversation going into 2026 focused on discretionary spending pressure, digital substitution, and higher-income consumers as the primary drivers of growth, grocery foot traffic tells a different story.

More Trips, More Formats, and a Shift Toward Mission-Driven Shopping

Rather than being diluted by new formats or eroded by e-commerce, brick-and-mortar grocery engagement is expanding. Visits are rising even as grocery supply spreads across wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. At the same time, growth is being powered not by affluent trade areas, but by low- and middle-income households navigating higher food costs through more frequent, targeted trips. Shoppers are showing up more often and increasingly splitting their trips across retailers based on value, availability, and mission – pushing grocers to compete for portions of the grocery list instead of the full weekly basket. 

Scale Captures Demand – But Fragmented Trips Leave Room to Grow

The data also suggests that the largest grocery chains are capturing a disproportionate share of rising grocery demand – but the multi-trip nature of grocery shopping in 2026 means that smaller banners can still drive traffic growth. By strengthening their value proposition, specializing in specific products, or owning specific shopping missions, these smaller chains can complement, rather than compete with, larger one-stop destinations.

The Core Drivers of Grocery Growth in 2026

Ultimately, AI-based location analytics point to a clear set of grocery growth drivers in 2026: expanded supply that increases overall engagement, more frequent and mission-driven trips, and continued traffic concentration among large chains alongside new opportunities for smaller banners.

1. Expanded Grocery Supply Is Fueling Growth While Traditional Grocery Stores Hold Their Lead 

Expanded Grocery Access Is Increasing Overall Category Engagement

One driver of grocery growth in recent years is simply the expansion of grocery supply across multiple retail formats. Wholesale clubs are constantly opening new locations and discount and dollar stores are investing more heavily in their food selection, giving consumers a wider choice of where to shop for groceries. And rather than fragmenting demand, this broader availability appears to have increased overall grocery engagement – benefiting both dedicated grocery stores and grocery-adjacent channels.

Traditional Grocery Stores Maintain a Stable Share of Visits Despite Growing Competition

Grocery stores continue to capture nearly half of all visits across grocery stores, wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. That share has remained remarkably stable thanks to consistent year-over-year traffic growth – so even as grocery supply increases across categories, dedicated grocery stores remain the primary destination for food shopping.

Mass Merchants Face Share Pressure as One-Stop Competition Expands

Meanwhile, mass merchants have seen a decline in relative visit share as expanding grocery assortments at discount and dollar stores and the growing store fleets of wholesale clubs give consumers more alternatives for one-stop shopping. 

2. Low and Medium-Income Households Driving Larger Visit Gains 

Grocery Growth Is Shifting Toward Lower- and Middle-Income Trade Areas

While much of the broader retail conversation heading into 2026 centers on higher-income consumers carrying growth, the trend looks different in the grocery space. Recent visit trends show that grocery growth has increasingly shifted toward lower- and middle-income trade areas, underscoring the distinct dynamics of non-discretionary retail. 

Higher Food Costs Likely Driving More Frequent, Budget-Conscious Trips

For lower- and middle-income shoppers, elevated food costs appear to be translating into more frequent grocery trips as consumers manage budgets through smaller baskets, deal-seeking, and shopping across retailers. In contrast, higher-income households – often cited as a key growth engine for discretionary retail – are contributing less to grocery visit growth, likely reflecting more stable shopping patterns or a greater ability to consolidate trips or shift spend online.

Necessity-Driven Shopping Is Powering Grocery Visit Growth

This means that, in 2026, grocery growth is not being propped up by high-income consumers. Instead, it is being fueled by necessity-driven shopping behavior in lower- and middle-income communities – reinforcing grocery’s role as an essential category and suggesting that similar dynamics may be at play across other non-discretionary retail segments.

3. Rise in Short Grocery Trips Driving Offline Grocery Gains

More Frequent, Shorter Grocery Trips

Another factor driving grocery growth is the rise in short grocery visits in recent years. Between 2022 and 2025, the biggest year-over-year visit gains in the grocery space went to visits under 30 minutes, with sub-15 minute visits seeing particularly big boosts. As of 2025, visits under 15 minutes made up over 40% of grocery visits nationwide – up from 37.9% of visits in 2022. 

Omnichannel Grocery Shopping Fueling Short Trips to Physical Stores 

This shift toward shorter visits – especially those under 15 minutes – is driven in part by the continued expansion of omnichannel grocery shopping, as many consumers complete larger stock-up orders online and rely on in-store trips for order collection or quick, fill-in needs. At the same time, the rise in short visits paired with consistent YoY growth in grocery traffic points to additional, behavior-driven forces at play – consumers' growing willingness to shop around at different grocery stores in search of the best deal or just-right product. 

Grocery Shoppers Are Splitting Trips Across Multiple Retailers

Value-conscious shoppers – particularly consumers from low- and middle-income households, which have driven much of recent grocery growth – seem to be increasingly shopping across multiple retailers to secure the best prices. This behavior often involves making targeted trips to different stores in search of the strongest deals, a pattern that is contributing to the rise in shorter, more frequent grocery visits. At the same time, other grocery shoppers are making quick trips to pick up a single ingredient or specialty item – perhaps reflecting the increasingly sophisticated home cooks and social media-driven ingredient crazes. In both these cases, speed is secondary to getting the best value or the right product.

Different Trip Types, One Outcome: Continued Store Traffic Growth

So while some shorter visits reflect a growing emphasis on efficiency – as shoppers use in-store trips to complement primarily online grocery shopping – others appear driven by a preference for value or product selection over speed. Despite their differences, all of these behaviors have one thing in common – they're all contributing to continued growth in brick-and-mortar grocery visits. Grocers who invest in providing efficient in-store experiences are particularly well-positioned to benefit from these trends. 

4. Consolidation as a Growth Driver 

Large Chains Continue to Pull Ahead in Visit Share

As early as 2022, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains already accounted for roughly half of all grocery visits nationwide. And by outpacing the industry average in terms of visit growth, these chains have continued to capture a growing share of grocery foot traffic.

Scale Enables Broader Assortment, Stronger Value, and Better Execution

This widening gap suggests that scale is increasingly enabling grocers to reinvest in the factors that attract and retain shoppers. Larger chains are better positioned to invest in broader and more differentiated product selection, stronger private-label programs that deliver quality at accessible price points, competitive pricing, and operational excellence across stores and omnichannel touchpoints. These capabilities allow top chains to serve a wide range of shopping missions – from quick, convenience-driven trips to more intentional visits in search of the right product or ingredient.

Consolidation at the top of the grocery category is reinforcing a virtuous cycle: scale enables better value, selection, and experience, which in turn draws more shoppers into stores and supports continued grocery traffic growth.

5. Competition for "Share of List" Growing Grocery Visit Pie 

Both Long and Short Trips Are Driving Grocery Traffic Growth

In 2025, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains accounted for a disproportionate share of visits lasting 15 minutes or more, while smaller grocers captured a larger share of the shortest trips. As shown above, larger grocery chains, which tend to attract longer visits, grew faster than the industry overall – but short visits, which skew more heavily toward smaller chains, accounted for a greater share of total traffic growth. Together, these patterns show that both long, destination trips and short, targeted visits are driving grocery traffic growth and creating viable paths forward for retailers of all sizes.

Large and Small Chains Win by Competing for Different Shopping Missions

Larger chains are more likely to serve as destinations for fuller shopping missions, competing for the entire grocery list – or a significant share of it. But smaller banners can grow too by competing for more short visits. By specializing in a specific product category, owning a clearly defined shopping mission, or delivering a compelling value proposition, smaller grocers can earn a place in shoppers’ routines and become a deliberate stop within a broader grocery journey. 

What These Trends Mean for Grocery Growth in 2026

As grocery moves deeper into 2026, growth is being driven by the cumulative effect of how consumers are navigating food shopping today. Expanded supply has increased overall engagement, higher food costs are driving more frequent and targeted trips, and shoppers are increasingly willing to split their grocery list across retailers based on value, availability, and mission.

Looking ahead, this suggests that grocery growth will remain resilient, but unevenly distributed. Retailers that clearly understand which trips they are best positioned to win – and invest accordingly – will be best placed to capture that growth. Large chains are likely to continue benefiting from scale, consolidation, and their ability to serve full shopping missions, while smaller banners can grow by earning a defined role within shoppers’ broader grocery journeys. In 2026, success in grocery will be less about winning every trip and more about consistently winning the right ones.

INSIDER
Report
Office Attendance Drivers in 2026: The New Rules of Showing Up
Dive into the data to learn how convenience-driven behaviors are impacting the office recovery – and how stakeholders from employers to office owners and local retailers can best adapt.
February 5, 2026

Key Takeaways:

To optimize office utilization and surrounding activity in 2026, stakeholders should: 

1. Plan for continued, but slower, office recovery. Attendance continues to rise and has reached a post-pandemic high, but moderating growth suggests the return-to-office may progress at a more gradual and incremental pace than in prior years.

2. Account for growing seasonality in office staffing, local retail operations, and municipal services. As office visitation becomes increasingly concentrated in late spring and summer, offices, downtown retailers, and cities may need to plan for more predictable peaks and troughs by adjusting hours, staffing levels, and local services accordingly, rather than relying on annual averages.

3. Align leasing strategies with seasonal demand. Stronger attendance in Q2 and Q3 suggests these quarters are best suited for leasing activity, while softer Q1 and Q4 periods may be better used for renovations, repositioning, and targeted activation efforts designed to draw workers in.

4. Design hybrid policies around midweek anchor days. With Tuesdays and Wednesdays consistently driving the highest office attendance, employers can maximize collaboration and space utilization by concentrating meetings, programming, and in-office expectations midweek.

5. Reduce early-week commute friction to support attendance. Monday office attendance appears closely correlated with commute ease, suggesting that reliable and efficient transportation may be an important factor in early-week office recovery.

6. Prioritize proximity in leasing and development decisions. Visits from employees traveling less than five miles to work have increased steadily since 2019, reinforcing the value of centrally located offices and housing near employment hubs.

When Policy Isn’t Enough

2025 was the year of the return-to-office (RTO) mandate. Employers across industries – from Amazon to JPMorgan Chase –  instituted full-time on-site requirements and sought to rein in remote work. But the year also underscored the limits of policy. As employee pushback and enforcement challenges mounted, many organizations turned to quieter tactics such as “hybrid creep” to gradually expand in-office expectations without triggering outright resistance.

For employers seeking to boost attendance, as well as office owners, retailers, and cities looking to maximize today’s visitation patterns, understanding what actually drives employee behavior has become more critical than ever. This reports dives into the data to examine office visitation patterns in 2025 – and explore how structural factors such as weather, commute convenience, and workplace proximity have emerged as key differentiators shaping how and when, and how often workers come into the office. 

Office Attendance Reaches a New High, But Momentum Slows

National office visits rose 5.6% year over year in 2025, bringing attendance to just 31.7% below pre-pandemic levels and marking the highest point since COVID disrupted workplace routines. At the same time, the pace of growth slowed compared to 2024, signaling a possible transition into a steadier phase of recovery.

With new return-to-office mandates expected in 2026, and the balance of power quietly shifting towards employers, additional gains remain likely. But the trajectory suggested by the data points toward gradual progress rather than a return to the more rapid rebounds seen in 2023 or 2024. 

Weather, Workations, and a New Kind of Seasonality 

Before COVID, “I couldn’t come in, it was raining” would have sounded like a flimsy excuse to most bosses. But today, weather, travel, and individual scheduling are widely accepted reasons to stay home, reflecting a broader assumption that face time should flex around convenience.

This shift is visible in the growing seasonality of office visitation, which has intensified even as overall attendance continues to rise. In 2019, office life followed a relatively steady year-round cadence, with only modest quarterly variation after adjusting for the number of working days. In recent years, however, greater seasonality has emerged. Since 2024, Q1 and Q4 have consistently underperformed while Q2 and Q3 have posted meaningfully stronger attendance – a pattern that became even more pronounced in 2025. Winter weather disruptions, extended holiday travel, and the growing normalization of “workations” appear to be pulling some visits out of the colder, holiday-heavy months and concentrating them into late spring and summer.

For employers, office owners, downtown retailers, and city planners, this emerging seasonality matters. Staffing, operating budgets, and programming decisions increasingly need to account for predictable soft quarters and peak periods, making quarterly planning a more useful lens than annual averages. Leasing activity may also convert best in Q2 and Q3, when districts feel most active. Slower quarters, meanwhile, may be better suited for renovations, construction, or employer- and city-led programming designed to give workers a reason to show up.

The Quest for Convenience and the TGIF Workweek

The growing premium placed on convenience is also evident in the persistence of the TGIF workweek – and in the factors shaping its regional variability.

Before COVID, Mondays were typically the busiest day of the week, followed by relatively steady attendance through Thursday and a modest drop-off on Fridays. Today, Tuesdays and Wednesdays have firmly established themselves as the primary anchor days, while Mondays and Fridays see consistently lower activity. And notably, this pattern has remained essentially stable over the past three years – despite minor fluctuations – as workers continue to cluster their in-office time around the days that offer the most perceived value while preserving flexibility at the edges of the week.

Commute Friction Shaping the Start of the Week

At the same time, while the hybrid workweek remains firmly entrenched nationwide, its contours vary significantly across regions – and the data suggests that convenience is once again a key differentiator.

Across major markets, a clear pattern emerges: Cities with higher reliance on public transportation tend to see weaker Monday office attendance, while markets where more workers drive alone show stronger early-week presence. While industry mix and local office culture still matter, the data points to commute hassle as another factor potentially shaping Monday attendance. 

New York City, excluded from the chart below as a clear outlier, stands as the exception that proves the rule. Despite nearly half of local employees relying on public transportation (48.7% according to the Census 2024 (ACS)), the city’s extensive and deeply embedded transit system appears to reduce perceived friction. In 2025, Mondays accounted for 18.4% of weekly office visits in the city, even with heavy transit usage.

The contrast highlights an important nuance: Where transit is fast, frequent, and integrated into daily routines, it can support office recovery, offering a potential roadmap for other dense urban markets seeking to rebuild early-week momentum. 

Proximity as a Key Attendance Driver

Another powerful signal of today’s convenience-first mindset shows up in commute distances. Since 2019, the share of office visits generated by employees traveling less than five miles has steadily increased, largely at the expense of mid-distance commuters traveling 10 to 25 miles.

To be sure, this metric reflects total visits rather than unique visitors, so the shift may be driven by increased visit frequency among workers with shorter, simpler commutes rather than a change in where employees live overall. Still, the pattern is telling: Workers with shorter commutes appear more likely to generate repeat in-person visits, while longer and more complex commutes correspond with fewer trips. Over time, this dynamic could shape office leasing decisions, residential demand near employment centers – whether in urban cores or in nearby suburbs – and the geography of the workforce.

Friction in Focus 

Taken together, the data paints a clear picture of the modern return-to-office landscape. Attendance is rising, but behavior is no longer driven by mandates alone. Instead, workers are making rational, convenience-based decisions about when coming in is worth the effort.

For cities, the implication is straightforward: Ease of access matters. Investments in transit reliability, last-mile connectivity, and housing near employment centers can all play a meaningful role in shaping how consistently people show up. For employers, too, the lesson is that the path back to the office runs through convenience, not just compulsion, as attendance gains are increasingly driven by how effectively organizations reduce friction and increase the perceived value of being on-site.

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