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Who Is Shopping at Malls?
With shopping center vacancy rates now lower than they were pre-COVID, we dove into the demographic and psychographic trade area data for leading Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, and Outlet Malls to understand who visited malls in 2023. 
Shira Petrack
Feb 14, 2024
2 minutes

With shopping center vacancy rates now lower than they were pre-COVID, we dove into the demographic and psychographic trade area data for leading Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, and Outlet Malls to understand who visited malls in 2023. 

Shopping Center Types Draw a Variety of Audiences 

Diving into the demographics of the trade areas of the various mall types in 2023 reveal both similarities and differences between the typical visitor to Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, and Outlet Malls. 

In all three mall types, the median trade area household income (HHI) in the three mall types was higher than the nationwide median HHI of $69.5K (according to the STI: Popstats 2022 dataset). But Open-Air Shopping Centers drew the highest income visitors, with a trade area median HHI of $87.8K in 2023. The trade area of Open-Air Shopping Centers also had the lowest share of Households with Children and the highest share of singles (One-Person and Non-Family Households). 

Outlet Malls lay at the other end of the spectrum, with a trade area median trade HHI of $73.9K, the highest share of Households with Children, and the lowest share of single households. And the median HHI and household composition for the trade area of Indoor Malls stood between those of the other two types. 

bar chart: demographic differences among trade areas of various mall types

Different Family Segments for Different Mall Types

Even though Outlet Malls tend to draw the highest, and Open-Air Shopping Centers draw the lowest share of family visitors (Households with Children), diving deeper into various family segments reveals a more nuanced picture. 

For example, the trade areas of Outlet Malls do indeed contain the highest shares of the “Family Union” and “Promising Families” segments – defined by Experian: Mosaic as blue-collar families and young families in starter homes, respectively. But Open-Air Shopping Centers tend to draw the highest share of the more affluent “Flourishing Families” segment – perhaps thanks to the Open-Air Shopping Centers’ higher trade area median HHI. 

So while the demographic analysis can provide an overall snapshot of the various mall types’ audience, diving into the psychographics can yield a higher-resolution picture of the types of shoppers frequenting each shopping center category. 

bar graph: different mall types attract different family segments

Looking Ahead to 2024 

For the most part, malls – especially Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers – succeeded in exceeding or staying close to 2022 visit levels last year, despite the economic headwinds. And while January data indicates that the space may be entering a challenging period, there are plenty of reasons to think that the dip in early 2024 foot traffic is just a temporary setback driven by a unique set of circumstances. As the year continues to unfold, tracking visits in this sector will offer more insights into the state of the 2024 consumer. 

For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/blog

Article
Drilling Down Into Home Improvement
When we last checked in with the home improvement category, high interest rates and a cooling housing market had impacted visits to retailers The Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Tractor Supply. As 2024 gets underway, what might lie ahead for these chains? We take a look at the data to find out. 
Bracha Arnold
Feb 13, 2024

When we last checked in with the home improvement category, high interest rates and a cooling housing market had impacted visits to retailers The Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Tractor Supply. As 2024 gets underway, what might lie ahead for these chains? We take a look at the data to find out. 

Hammering Out The Visits

Home Depot and Lowe’s, two of the largest home improvement retailers in the country, command a significant share of the industry. The two chains experienced ups and downs over the past few years, from a pandemic-era spike in visits to a more recent slowdown as rising prices and slowing home sales led many would-be shoppers to rethink a renovation.

The turbulence in the Home Improvement space continued in 2023. In the first half of the year, foot traffic to The Home Depot and Lowe’s showed modest increases on a year-over-year (YoY) basis – but that momentum slowed into the years’ second half as home sales dropped to a six-month low

Visit performance to these retailers may well improve in 2024. Should home sales pick up  as mortgage rates continue on their expected downward trajectory, home improvement chains would likely see an increase in visits as new homeowners grab equipment for renovations.  

line graph: foot traffic to The Home Depot and Lowe's remained close to 2022 levels in H1 2023, slowed in H2

Nailed It: Median HHI Variances

Analyzing median household income (HHI) of visitors to The Home Depot and Lowe’s, segmented by potential and captured markets, may provide insights into The Home Depot's stronger year-over-year foot traffic performance. (A chain's potential market looks at the Census Block Groups (CBGs) where visitors to a chain originate, weighted according to the CBG’s population. In contrast, captured market visit data reflects figures weighted by the actual number of visits from each CBG.) 

The trade area median HHI tends to be higher for Home Depot than for Lowe’s in the chains’ potential markets – and the differences grow even more pronounced when analyzing the captured market. The Home Depot’s potential market median HHI stood at $71.5K/year – just slightly higher than Lowe’s $69.6K/year. But The Home Depot’s captured market median HHI was $74.3K/year in 2023 – around 4% higher than the chain’s potential market median HHI. Meanwhile, Lowe’s captured market median HHI of $69.0K/year was around 1% lower than its potential market median HHI.

The income disparity between the visitor bases of the two chains may provide context for The Home Depot’s foot traffic strength compared to Lowe’s – The Home Depot’s wealthier customers may be more insulated from the effects of inflation. And as inflation eases and demand for home renovations creeps up, Lowe’s may yet see visits tick up as its customers return to the chain. 

bar graph: median HHI for home improvement chains shows variance among brands.

Ranching Out: Visits To Tractor Supply

Tractor Supply Co. – another major home improvement chain – also offers a variety of products geared toward farm and ranch living, including animal feed and farm equipment. The company was a surprising pandemic winner, seeing its sales and foot traffic grow significantly as people moved to the countryside.

The chain's popularity has remained strong even as the pandemic-induced migration trends subside and the influx of city-dwellers to rural areas slows down. Visits to Tractor Supply remained consistently high throughout 2023, with only two months experiencing YoY foot traffic lags. Tractor Supply visits also outpaced visits to the home improvement category as a whole, indicating sustained demand for farm products. 

line chart: tractor supply outpaces wider home improvement category

Rural Renovations Rule

A deeper exploration of the three home improvement chains’ psychographic compositions indicates that Tractor Supply’s popularity with rural segments (as defined by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset) may be fueling some of its sustained visit success. 

All three chains saw a higher share of rural visitors in their captured market compared to their potential market – indicating that rural consumers are particularly interested in home improvement tools and products. And of the three chains, Tractor Supply served the largest share of rural visitors by far. The share of rural audience segments in Tractor Supply’s potential markets significantly exceeded the share of these segments in the trade areas of Lowe’s and The Home Depot’s, and the relative share of rural segments in Tractor Supply’s captured market was even more impressive. 

Lowe’s, which has bolstered its rural presence over the past year, had the second-highest percentage of rural segments in both its potential and captured markets – although its share of rural visitors was still considerably lower than Tractor Supply’s. 

Meanwhile, The Home Depot saw the smallest share of rural visitors across all rural segments analyzed. The company’s captured market had just slightly more Rural High Income and Rural Low Income visitors relative to its potential market, and there was no difference between its captured and potential market shares of Rural Average Income consumers.

The impressive over-representation of rural customers to Lowe’s and Tractor Supply suggest that the rural potential for home improvement chains is significant – and chains that tap into the segment may see further foot traffic to their stores. 

bar charts: tractor supply has cornered rural home improvement markets

Renovations, Renewed

The home improvement space has seen plenty of variance over the past few years, from the pandemic-fueled DIY highs of 2020 and 2021 to the overall slowdown brought on by inflation in 2023. Will visits begin to pick up again into 2024? 

Visit placer.ai/blog for the latest data-driven retail insights.

Article
Walmart, Target, Costco & Superstore Space 2023 Recap
How did Target, Walmart, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s Wholesale Club perform offline last year? Who visited the chains in 2023? And what does 2024 have in store for the space? We dove into the foot traffic and trade area composition data to find out. 
Shira Petrack
Feb 12, 2024
4 minutes

How did Target, Walmart, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s Wholesale Club perform offline last year? Who visited the chains in 2023? And what does 2024 have in store for the space? We dove into the foot traffic and trade area composition data to find out. 

Strong Year for the Superstore Space 

The superstore and wholesale space performed well across the board in 2023, with leading retailers seeing consistent year-over-year (YoY) quarterly visit growth throughout the year. Costco led the pack in terms of overall YoY visit performance, followed by Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club. The wholesale clubs’ strength may be due in part to the chains’ attractive gas prices, which were likely particularly tempting to 2023 consumers looking to stretch their budget. 

Visits to Target also remained above the chain’s 2022 baseline during all four quarters, and Walmart – which closed several stores last year – mostly beat its 2022 visit performance, with the exception of Q4 where traffic remained essentially on par with last year’s levels. 

bar graph: superstores and wholesale club visits in 2023 were mostly up compared to 2022mo

January 2024 Visits Mostly On Par with 2023 Performance 

Visits to four out of five of the analyzed superstores and wholesale clubs dipped slightly in January 2024 relative to January 2023, perhaps due to comparisons to a strong Q1 2023 performance or to post-holidays consumer cutbacks. But despite the challenging circumstances, the YoY drops remained minimal – so the softer start to the year is not necessarily an indication of things to come. 

And in contrast to the subdued visit performance in the rest of the category, Costco foot traffic exceeded its January 2023 visit baseline – revealing the potential for the superstore space to grow in a positive direction in 2024.

 

bar chart: january 202 visits to superstores and wholesale clubs remained close to 2023 levels in January 2024

Monthly Visit Trends Vary Among Chains

Analyzing monthly visits to leading superstore and wholesale clubs in 2023 compared to each chain’s monthly visit average reveals different consumer patterns for each brand. 

While all chains saw their monthly visits peak in December, Target experienced the most significant holiday peak, with a 33.9% increase in monthly visits compared to its 2023 monthly average – more than double the increases of the other four chains analyzed. Target also saw the strongest August visit growth relative to its 2023 monthly average as parents and students likely flocked to the chain in search of Back-to-School apparel and supplies. 

In June and July, Walmart’s relative visit growth exceeded that of the other four chains – possible thanks to consumers stocking up on summer supplies. And the wholesale clubs saw larger relative increases in November, as those chains’ bulk grocery offerings may have helped consumers shop for a crowd ahead of Thanksgiving dinner.

line graph: different monthly visit patterns for each superstore and wholesale club

Who Shops at Superstores & Wholesale Clubs? 

The trade areas of all five chains analyzed included a higher share of Households with Children when compared to the nationwide average. But the two superstore brands – Walmart and Target – also had larger percentages of 1-Person and Non-Family (roommate) Households when compared to the nationwide average, while the three wholesale clubs had smaller shares. 

So while average wholesale clubs and their large selection of bulk packaged items cater primarily to families, superstores seem to attract a wider range of shoppers, including consumers shopping for one and living alone or with roommates. 

bar graph: superstores serve more singles, costco's visitor base includes largest shares of families with children, based on sti:PopStats dataset combined with placer.ai trade area data

Differences Between the Chains 

Diving into the psychographic composition of the trade areas highlights additional differences between the various chains’ audiences. 

The trade areas of Walmart and of its subsidiary Sam’s Club had the highest share of  Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s small town and rural audience segments, including “Small Town Low Income,” “Rural Low Income,” “Rural Average Income,” and “Rural High Income.” 

Suburban segments were more distributed. Walmart and Sam’s Club served a higher share of “Blue Collar Suburbs” while Target and Costco drew more “Wealthy Suburban Families” – and BJ’s Wholesale Club received the largest percentage of “Upper Suburban Diverse Families.” 

BJ’s trade area also included the largest shares of almost all the urban segments with the exception of “Educated Urbanites” – defined by Spatial.ai as “well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs” – for which Target came out on top.

 

bar graph: each superstore and wholesale club serves a specific audience

Looking Ahead to 2024

The leading superstore and wholesale clubs performed well in 2023 as consumers relied on their bulk-packaging and value-pricing to stretch their increasingly strained budgets. 

What does 2024 have in store? Visit the placer.ai blog to find out. 

Article
Year of the Dragon, Luckiest Animal in the Zodiac: Will that Luck Hold for Asian-Themed CRE?
Caroline Wu
Feb 10, 2024

It only comes around once every 12 years, and for those born in the Year of the Dragon, they are considered to be the luckiest of the Zodiac signs.  This year’s element is wood, and thus a Wood Dragon year can portend good fortune, action, and expansion.  Let’s take a look at some Asian concepts, brands, and shopping centers and see if our Placer trends indicate whether they might be in for a lucky, powerful year.

More Tea, Please: Tea is Anywhere and Everywhere, All at Once

Tea drinks, especially those including tapioca pearls otherwise known as boba have created billionaires in China, and global expansion means that you can get your fill of the chewy goodies all over the world nowadays.  Some of the largest chains in the US include Kung Fu Tea, with over 350 locations; Gong Cha; Sharetea with more than 500 stores in 15 locations; Boba Guys known for their famous strawberry puree matcha tea latte; and It’s Boba Time, Happy Lemon,  YiFang Taiwan Fruit Tea, and Boba Loca.

Tea has been an integral part of our global history.  As a precious commodity, it was traded along the Silk Road, leading to increased transcontinental commerce.  In American history, the Boston Tea Party was perhaps not so much about tea itself but about taxation and representation, but in any words, it was definitely a catalyst towards American independence.  And now,  thousands of years later, tea continues to be a tour de force for antioxidants, anti-aging, and an overall delicious base for a bevy of creative drinks.  Economists often talk about the “latte index” - used to estimate purchasing power parity in 16 countries around the world compared to the cost of a tall Starbucks latte in NYC.

Latte Index 2.9.24
Source: Visualcapitalist.com (The Latte Index: Using the Impartial Bean to Value Currencies)

With the way things are going with teas, could a boba index not be far behind?  We examined year-over-year traffic for some of the leading tea/boba chains compared to specialty coffee chains.  Boba has seen gains compared to last year, usually at a higher percentage than coffee.  Both beverage type chains have trended upwards in 2023, although coffee had a bit of a dip in the latter part of the year.

To be fair, one can often order a coffee at a tea store and vice versa, but there are certainly toppings and color sensations at tea stores that are uniquely suited to social media, such as butterfly pea, which is an intense shade of violet, or various vibrant toppings such as popping boba in pink and orange.  In some creations, the tea is even dispensed with entirely, such as Tiger Sugar’s brown sugar boba milk with a deep caramel flavor, or their highly-coveted ice cream bar version of the drink.

Tiger Sugar images side by side 2.9.24

Asian Malls in the US to Visit for Lunar New Year

For those wishing for an authentic taste of an Asian shopping mall experience during Lunar New Year, there are many options around the US including Chinese shopping malls in the west like Focus Plaza/San Gabriel Square in San Gabriel Valley, Diamond Jamboree in Irvine, Shanghai Plaza in Chinatown Las Vegas, and Great Wall Mall in Kent, WA as well as in the east like Tangram and New World Mall in Flushing, NY.

Of these malls, Diamond Jamboree is the most visited. It has local favorites like The Kickin' Crab, Hai Di Lao, and Pepper Lunch. For dessert, head on over to Meet Fresh, with its refreshing grass jelly or chewy taro balls or SomiSomi for the cutest fish-shaped pancakes and a delectable choice of soft-serve flavors like ube and sesame.

Next is Shanghai Plaza, which is located in Las Vegas Chinatown.  At Shanghai Taste, one can slurp xiao long bao soup dumplings, and another favorite - sheng jian bao - which is basically the love child of the more well known bao zi (meat bun) and the aforementioned xiao long bao. Somehow, it manages to have the fluffiness of the outer dough with a burst of soup and filling inside. Add the slight crunchiness of a pan-fried base and your mouth will be amazed by the variety of flavors and textures.

San Gabriel Square, also known as Focus Plaza, is the granddaddy of San Gabriel Valley larger-than-life malls. Also lovingly named “Chinese Disneyland” it offers a famous restaurant Five Star Seafood, a 99 Ranch, as well as other restaurants and jewelry stores. It opened in 1990 and became the place where one could go to buy laserdiscs for karaoke machines, as well as buy delicacies like honey-dried mangoes or salted plums. Nearly 25 years later, it is poised for renovation as it competes with other Chinese malls in the Greater Los Angeles and Orange County area for hot new restaurants and bakeries.

Moving across the country, we have Tangram in Queens, NY.  Who doesn’t love an Asian food hall, with its dizzying array of hawkers, smells, and bustle? Tangram opened its Food Hall in January 2023, with a mix of international cuisine such as Joju for Vietnamese sandwiches, Zaab Zaab for Thai food, and Na Tart for egg tarts. One unique offering at Xi’an Famous Food is their piece de resistance lamb noodles. Topped with melt-in-your-mouth lamb, the broth is composed of both cumin and chili, and the hand-pulled noodles offer you that perfect texture referred to as “qq” in Chinese, whose closest renditions for noodles in another language might be “al dente.” This food hall spans 24,000 square feet and is lit with neon to mimic the non-stop night market energy in cosmopolitan Asian cities.

Great Wall Mall in Kent, Seattle is another Pan-Asian shopping center, despite its Chinese-centric name. Anchored by a 99 Ranch market, it also includes Chinese and Vietnamese restaurants, a Korean clothing store, hair and nail salons, and home decor.  Architecturally, the outside is flanked by a fortress-style wall that mimics the Great Wall of China.

Last, but not least, we have New World Mall. Another sprawling food hall awaits, with over two dozen eateries to choose from. The exciting part of visiting food halls is the ability to get to the level of regional cuisine. Whether its Chongqing xiao mian featuring spicy Sichuan noodles or knife-cut noodles from Lanzhou, one has the opportunity to try a variety of cooking styles, nuances in similar-sounding dishes, and basically explore an entire country through its diversity of tastes.

Article
Catching Up With Shake Shack and Wingstop
We take a look at two dining chains - Shake Shack and Wingstop - to see how they performed during the final quarter of 2023 and what may lie ahead for them in the new year.
Lila Margalit
Feb 8, 2024
3 minutes

The past couple of years have been challenging ones for the dining industry as high food prices and economic headwinds led many consumers to cut back on unnecessary indulgences. Still, people can’t eat at home all the time, and there’s always demand for restaurants that serve up good food and a welcoming ambiance – without breaking the bank.

So with Q4 2023 under our belts, we dove into the data to check in with two dining chains that are especially good at giving customers what they want: Shake Shack and Wingstop. How did they perform during the final quarter of 2023? And what lies ahead for them in the new year?

Leaving Dining in the Dust

Shake Shack, curiously named after an amusement park ride from 70’s hit movie Grease, continues to impress. Following a robust third quarter, the gourmet burger joint maintained strong positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth throughout Q4 2023 – finishing out the year with a remarkable 24.3% foot traffic jump in December 2023. 

Wingstop, another darling of the dining industry, also ended 2023 with a bang. Whether celebrating the New York Knicks with a special lemon garlic flavor, or jumping on the dry January bandwagon with its own “dry rub January”, the popular chicken restaurant draws crowds by staying up-to-date with popular trends. And throughout Q4 2023, Wingstop saw positive visit growth ranging from 12.8% to 16.3%.

 

bar graph: shake shack and wingstop experience significant growth in October '23-Jan. '25

Shake Shack Shakes Things Up

The ongoing success of these two chains in a difficult overall environment shows that there’s more than one way to win at the dining game. With limited-time offerings like White Truffle Burgers, and sandwiches that feature Kimchi slaw, Shake Shack’s relatively upscale offerings have traditionally drawn affluent audiences. But as the chain has continued to expand, its customer base has diversified – with the median household income (HHI) of its captured market dropping by 8.6% over the past four years. Over the same period, the share of ultra-wealthy families and educated urbanites in the restaurant’s captured market declined, while the share of young professionals and urban low income consumers increased. Wider audiences, of course, means broader appeal – and more people getting addicted to Shake Shack’s delicious offerings.

graph: shake shack has diversified its audience over the past four years, median hhi and psychographic segmentation based on STI: PopStats dataset and Spatial.ai: PersonaLive datasets and placer.ai captured trade area data

Wingstop: Dinner for the Whole Gang

Wingstop, for its part, has pursued a somewhat different strategy. Positioned as an affordable eatery straddling the space between fast food and fast-casual, Wingstop draws less well-to-do consumers. Combining foot traffic data with demographics from STI’s PopStats shows that the median HHI of Wingstop’s captured market came in at $62.1K in Q4 2023, well below the nationwide baseline of $69.5K. 

But despite targeting a demographic with less discretionary income, Wingstop has carved out a niche for itself as a to-go dining destination for people seeking the perfect place to sit down to a nice, big meal with the family. In Wingstop’s four biggest markets – Texas, California, Florida, and Illinois – the chain’s trade areas featured more persons per household than the statewide averages in Q4 2023. And Wingstop’s captured markets were also over-indexed for families with children – showing that parents are particularly likely to pay the restaurant a visit.

bar chart: wingstop finds success through its appeal to large households and families with children

Key Takeaways

Though food prices have stabilized and consumer confidence has begun to recover, last year ended on a tough note for restaurants. But while the category as a whole has yet to fully regain its footing, chains like Shake Shack and Wingstop are finding success by leaning into evolving consumer demand.

Will cooling inflation kickstart a dining revival? And what does the rest of 2024 have in store for Shake Shack and Wingstop? 

Follow Placer.ai to find out.

Article
Something To Chew On: Demographic Shifts at Steakhouse Chains
Few things are more beloved by Americans than a steak – and two of the most popular steakhouse chains in the U.S. are Texas Roadhouse and Outback Steakhouse. Who is visiting these chains, and what characteristics do they share? We take a closer look.
Bracha Arnold
Feb 7, 2024
2 mintues

Few things are more beloved by Americans than a steak – and two of the most popular steakhouse chains in the U.S. are Texas Roadhouse and Outback Steakhouse. Who is visiting these chains, and what characteristics do they share? We take a closer look.   

Beefing Up Visits

Food-away-from-home prices remained high for much of 2023, presenting challenges for dining establishments as would-be restaurant patrons reconsidered going for a meal out. Outback Steakhouse in particular felt the impact of the dining downturn, with year-over-year (YoY) visits falling in 2023 – although the dip may also be due to the chain’s downsizing its store fleet. And the chain seems to have offset at least some of the drop thanks to its price increases, which increased the value of every visit. 

Texas Roadhouse, meanwhile, continued its expansion and benefited from growing YoY foot traffic every quarter of 2023.   

bar graph: Outback Steakhouse in particular felt the impact of the dining downturn, with year-over-year (YoY) visits falling in 2023 Outback Steakhouse in particular felt the impact of the dining downturn, with year-over-year (YoY) visits falling in 2023. Texas Roadhouse, meanwhile, continued its expansion and benefited from growing YoY foot traffic every quarter of 2023.

Lower-Income Consumers, Higher Dining Success 

Texas Roadhouse’s success is particularly notable given its trade area median HHI. Both Outback Steakhouse and Texas Roadhouse tend to have a lower median household income (median HH) in their trade areas when compared to the average fast-casual chain, despite having higher price points. The steakhouse leaders also have a trade area median HHI that is significantly lower than the overall fine-dining segment.

The lower median HHI of Texas Roadhouse and Outback Steakhouse visitors suggests that these diners may be avoiding the purchase of more casual, on-the-go meals and instead choosing to direct their more limited funds toward special occasion dining. And Outback Steakhouse and Texas Roadhouse may be seen as an affordable luxury for those seeking a more elevated dining experience than might be found at a local fast-casual joint. 

By understanding the types of diners who visit the restaurant, dining chains can make sure to deliver the type of experience their customers are seeking – in this case, a special-occasion dining destination that won't break the bank.

bar graph: Outback Steakhouse and Texas Roadhouse tend to have a lower median household income (median HH) in their trade areas compared to the average fast-casual or fine-dining chain. Based on STI: PopStats dataset combined with Placer.ai captured trade area data

Outback Steakhouse and Texas Roadhouse Popular Among Suburban Segments

A deeper exploration of the psychographic compositions of each chains’ trade area reveals that suburban families are particularly drawn to Texas Roadhouse and Outback Steakhouse. For both chains, the share of households in Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive “Upper Suburban Diverse Families,” “Suburban Boomers,” and “Wealthy Suburban Families” segments exceeded the statewide average in several major states. 

As suburban markets continue gaining momentum, Texas Roadhouse and Outback Steakhouse’s popularity with suburban audiences can help the chains stay ahead of the pack in 2024. 

bar graph: suburban families are particularly drawn to Texas Roadhouse and Outback Steakhouse. based on Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset combined with Placer.ai captured trade area data

The State Of Steak

The enduring appeal of a well-made steak (or Blooming Onion, or honey butter) is indisputable. Will customers continue to visit these chains for a special occasion? Or will 2024 bring with it a new shift in diner preferences? 

Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven analyses to find out. 

Reports
INSIDER
Exploring the Car Dealership Space
Dive into the foot traffic and audience segmentation data to find out where the new and used auto dealership space stands in 2023.

Overview 

This report leverages location intelligence data to analyze the auto dealership market in the United States. By looking at visit trends to branded showrooms, used car lots, and mixed inventory dealerships – and analyzing the types of visitors that visit each category – this white paper sheds light on the state of car dealership space in 2023. 

Shifts in Auto Dealerships Visit Trends

Prior to the pandemic and throughout most of 2020, visits to both car brand and used-only dealerships followed relatively similar trends. But the two categories began to diverge in early 2021. 

Visits to car brand dealerships briefly returned to pre-pandemic levels in mid-2021, but traffic fell consistently in the second half of the year as supply-chain issues drove consistent price increases. So despite the brief mid-year bump, 2021 ended with overall new car sales – as well as overall foot traffic to car brand dealerships – below 2019 levels. Visits continued falling in 2022 as low inventory and high prices hampered growth.  

Meanwhile, although the price for used cars rose even more (the average price for a new and used car was up 12.1% and 27.1% YoY, respectively, in September 2021), used cars still remained, on average, more affordable than new ones. So with rising demand for alternatives to public transportation – and with new cars now beyond the reach of many consumers – the used car market took off and visits to used car dealerships skyrocketed for much of 2021 and into 2022. But in the second half of last year, as gas prices remained elevated – tacking an additional cost onto operating a vehicle – visits to used car dealerships began falling dramatically. 

Now, the price of both used and new cars has finally begun falling slightly. Foot traffic data indicates that the price drops appear to be impacting the two markets differently. So far this year, sales and visits to dealerships of pre-owned vehicles have slowed, while new car sales grew – perhaps due to the more significant pent-up demand in the new car market. The ongoing inflation, which has had a stronger impact on lower-income households, may also be somewhat inhibiting used-car dealership visit growth. At the same time, foot traffic to used car dealerships did remain close to or slightly above 2019 levels for most of 2023, while visits to branded dealerships were significantly lower year-over-four-years. 

The situation remains dynamic – with some reports of prices creeping back up – so the auto dealership landscape may well continue to shift going into 2024.

Used Cars Appeal to a Range of Consumers

With car prices soaring, the demand for pre-owned vehicles has grown substantially. Analyzing the trade area composition of leading dealerships that sell used cars reveals the wide spectrum of consumers in this market. 

Dealerships carrying a mixed inventory of both new and used vehicles seem to attract relatively high-income consumers. Using the STI: Popstats 2022 data set to analyze the trade areas of Penske Automotive, AutoNation, and Lithia Auto Stores – which all sell used and new cars – reveals that the HHI in the three dealerships’ trade areas is higher than the nationwide median. Differences did emerge within the trade areas of the mixed inventory car dealerships, but the range was relatively narrow – between $77.5K to $84.5K trade area median HHI. 

Meanwhile, the dealerships selling exclusively used cars – DriveTime, Carvana, and CarMax – exhibited a much wider range of trade area median HHIs. CarMax, the largest used-only car dealership in the United States, had a yearly median HHI of $75.9K in its trade area – just slightly below the median HHI for mixed inventory dealerships Lithia Auto Stores and AutoNation and above the nationwide median of $69.5K. Carvana, a used car dealership that operates according to a Buy Online, Pick Up in Store (BOPIS) model, served an audience with a median HHI of $69.1K – more or less in-line with the nationwide median. And DriveTime’s trade areas have a median HHI of $57.6K – significantly below the nationwide median. 

The variance in HHI among the audiences of the different used-only car dealerships may reflect the wide variety of offerings within the used-car market – from virtually new luxury vehicles to basic sedans with 150k+ miles on the odometer. 

Tesla Leads the Car Brand Dealership Pack

Visits to car brands nationwide between January and September 2023 dipped 0.9% YoY, although several outliers reveal the potential for success in the space even during times of economic headwinds. 

Visits to Tesla’s dealerships have skyrocketed recently, perhaps thanks to the company’s frequent price cuts over the past year – between September 2022 and 2023, the average price for a new Tesla fell by 24.7%. And with the company’s network of Superchargers gearing up to serve non-Tesla Electric Vehicles (EVs), Tesla is finding room for growth beyond its already successful core EV manufacturing business and positioning itself for a strong 2024. 

Japan-based Mazda used the pandemic as an opportunity to strengthen its standing among U.S. consumers, and the company is now reaping the fruits of its labor as visits rise YoY. Porsche, the winner of U.S New & World Report Best Luxury Car Brand for 2023, also outperformed the wider car dealership sector. Kia – owned in part by Hyundai –  and Hyundai both saw their foot traffic increase YoY as well, thanks in part to the popularity of their SUV models.

Diving into Local Markets 

Analyzing dealerships on a national level can help car manufacturers make macro-level decisions on marketing, product design, and brick-and-mortar fleet configurations. But diving deeper into the unique characteristics of each dealership’s trade area on a state level reveals differences that can serve brands looking to optimize their offerings for their local audience. 

For example, analyzing the share of households with children in the trade areas of four car brand dealership chains in four different states reveals significant variation across the regional markets. 

Nationwide, Tesla served a larger share of households with children than Kia, Ford, or Land Rover. But focusing on California shows that in the Golden State, Kia’s trade area population included the largest share of this segment than the other three brands, while Land Rover led this segment in Illinois. Meanwhile, Ford served the smallest share of households with children on a nationwide basis – but although the trend held in Illinois and Pennsylvania, California Ford dealerships served more households with children than either Tesla or Land Rover.  

Leveraging Location Intelligence for Car Dealerships

Leveraging location intelligence to analyze car dealerships adds a layer of consumer insights to industry provided sales numbers. Visit patterns and audience demographics reveal how foot traffic to used-car lots, mixed inventory dealerships, and manufacturers’ showrooms change over time and who visits these businesses on a national or regional level. These insights allow auto industry stakeholders to assess current demand, predict future trends, and keep a finger on the pulse of car-purchasing habits in the United States. 

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