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About the Mall Index: The Index analyzes data from 100 top-tier indoor malls, 100 open-air shopping centers (not including outlet malls) and 100 outlet malls across the country, in both urban and suburban areas. Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the country.
In April 2024, YoY mall visits slowed following two months of positive visit growth. For Indoor Malls, the decline was marginal – and Open-Air Shopping Centers saw visits remain on par with last year’s levels. But Outlet Malls saw a significant drop of 6.5% in visits.
Although at first glance this slowdown may suggest a resurgence of the retail challenges that plagued much of 2022 and 2023, a deeper dive into weekly visit trends paints a much rosier picture.
Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers experienced robust YoY visit increases every week of April 2024 and into May, with the sole exception of the week of April 8th. This isolated drop appears to be due to a calendar discrepancy: In 2023, Easter fell on April 9th, while in 2024, the holiday fell on March 31st. So the week of April 8th, 2024 is being compared to the week immediately after the holiday (including Easter Monday) when malls likely experienced heightened activity due to gift returns and pent-up demand following holiday store closures. Though Easter Monday isn’t an official holiday in the U.S., many people likely take the day off – giving them more time to hit the stores.
Outlet Malls, which saw a steeper decline during the week of April 8th, appear to have been particularly impacted by the Easter calendar difference – shoppers may be especially likely to make the trek to an outlet mall on a holiday weekend, or on Easter Monday. But Outlet Malls also saw their positive momentum quickly recover.
The continued rise in weekly YoY mall visits signals continued retail strength into the spring of 2024.
Holiday retail foot traffic is typically characterized by two main spikes: a pre-holiday visit spike evident in the days preceding the holiday, and a post-holiday uptick driven largely by gift returns and pent-up demand after stores reopen. The Monday after Easter follows this pattern – and comparing this year’s post-Easter visit spike to the one observed in 2023 provides further evidence of the category’s resilience.
On Monday, April 1st, 2024 – the day after Easter – Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, and Outlet Malls all drew significantly more visits than on an average Monday. And this year’s post-Easter visit spikes – ranging from 22.5% to 27.8% – were even more impressive than last year’s. Outlet Malls, which may be more likely to draw visitors on the day after Easter, saw the biggest post-Easter visit spikes.
All three mall types also saw more absolute visits this year on the day after Easter than they did in 2023 – with April 1st, 2024 foot traffic to Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, and Outlet Malls up 8.7%, 12.3%, and 6.7%, respectively, compared to April 10th, 2023.
Weekly YoY visit data and post-Easter foot traffic trends show that malls remain on an upward trajectory. As inflation continues to ease, malls may regain some leverage and can potentially attract crowds more readily than they did in 2023.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit our blog at placer.ai.
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Off-price apparel chains continue to drive traffic in 2024. We dove into the latest location analytics for four of the largest brands – T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, Ross Dress for Less, and Burlington – to take a closer look at these retailers’ foot traffic growth and evolving visitor bases.
The off-price sector started off 2024 strong, with the four off-price leaders – T.J. Maxx, Marshalls (both owned by TJX Companies), Ross Dress for Less, and Burlington – consistently outperforming the wider non-off-price apparel segment. YoY visits to the four brands were also mostly positive for the period analyzed, in part thanks to the companies’ ongoing expansions.
Diving into the demographic composition of the four chains’ trade areas reveals that there are many formulas for success in the off-price space. And while some companies have found success by attracting families looking to stretch their budgets, others are growing their visits by drawing singles looking to stock up on the latest styles without breaking the bank.
T.J. Maxx and Marshalls – where YoY Q1 2024 visits grew 8.9% and 7.9%, respectively – both have relatively large shares of one-person households in their trade areas. Members of these one-person households are typically younger – often belonging to the coveted Gen-Z demographic – and TJX C.E.O. Ernie Herrman has emphasized the company’s success among this audience segment as an important growth driver.
Meanwhile, the 1.1% YoY increase in overall visits for Ross Dress for Less in Q1 2024 seems driven by the chain’s popularity among families – 28.4% of the chain’s captured market consists of households with children. And Burlington achieved its Q1 7.6% YoY visit growth by appealing to both demographics.
It seems, then, that each off-price leader has found a different formula for success by catering to a unique demographic mix.
Over the last several months, off-price apparel chains have outperformed traditional apparel retailers in YoY visits as they expand their real estate footprints. Taking on new territory, off-price retailers drive visits from a unique mix of households with children and singles.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai.
As visits to Superstores continue to rise, we analyzed recent foot traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s Wholesale Club and dove into Walmart’s Q1 2024 regional performance.
Wholesale chains – which receive about 20% of all visits to Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, Sam’s Club (owned by Walmart), and BJ’s Wholesale Club – generally outperformed classic superstore banners Target and Walmart during the first four months of the year. Visits to all three wholesale clubs analyzed were up every month on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, with Costco maintaining its lead in the space. Some of the success of wholesale clubs may be due to the makeup of their visitor base – Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s tend to serve a large share of consumers from family households, and these may be opting for more buying in bulk in an effort to stretch budgets.
But visits to more classic superstores are also heating up – following a muted performance in January, when an arctic blast kept many at home, foot traffic to Target grew YoY in February, March, and April.
Walmart also experienced visit growth for most of the period, despite the slight dip in April due to calendar shifts: Visits for the superstore giant dropped 8.5% in YoY for the week of April 1st - 8th 2024 compared to the traffic surges of Easter week 2023 (April 3rd - 9th 2023), impacting the overall monthly numbers, but visits returned to growth during the last two weeks of April (4.3% and 4.0% YoY, respectively, for the weeks of April 15th - 21st and 22nd -28th).
And while Walmart’s growth may not be quite as impressive as that of smaller superstores, the company has retained its position as the largest retailer in the U.S. Nationwide, the Walmart banner receives over 60% of all visits to Target, Walmart, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s, and in most of the south, the superstore’s relative visit share exceeds 70%. In a handful of states – including the retailer’s home state of Arkansas along with Mississippi, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Wyoming – 4 out of every 5 visits to the five superstore chains analyzed go to Walmart.
And even as Walmart optimizes its fleet, analyzing the retailer’s Q1 2024 YoY visit increases by region reveals pockets of major growth throughout the country. In addition to the 2-5% traffic increases across most of the South – where the retailer already dominates the superstore space – Walmart is also posting impressive visit increases in the Northeast, Midwest, and Northwest, with the strongest growth in Minnesota, Wyoming, and the Dakotas.
As budget-strapped consumers continue looking for bargains, the legacy retail giant may still have room to grow even larger in 2024.
Superstore and wholesale club visits are on the rise as U.S. shoppers continue to defy predictions of a consumer spending slowdown while still looking for ways to stretch their budgets.
Will these trends continue as the year progresses?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
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Discount & Dollar Stores have become an important part of the wider retail landscape over the past couple of years, and location intelligence indicates that the category is continuing to gain momentum in 2024. We dove into the data for Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Family Dollar to understand how these banners are performing and analyze the regional reach of each chain.
Recent visitation data for the major Discount & Dollar Store banners indicates that the category is still on the rise: Monthly visits to both Dollar General and Dollar Tree grew year-over-year (YoY) between December 2023 and March 2024. Dollar Tree-owned Family Dollar – which recently announced the closure of 1000 stores over the next couple of years – also saw its YoY traffic grow in February and March.
With the exception of the week of April 1st 2024 – when the Easter calendar shift caused a regular week in 2024 to be compared to the week of Easter in 2023 – visitation trends remained positive in April, highlighting the ongoing strength of the Discount & Dollar Store category. Even Family Dollar – which has already begun to close stores – saw its numbers remain on par with last year’s visit levels, indicating the ongoing demand for value-priced goods in 2024.
Looking at the Q1 2024 state-by-state relative visit share of the three chains – Dollar General, Dollar Tree, or Family Dollar – reveals some clear regional differences in consumer preferences across states.
Dollar Tree was more popular in the West, with the Dollar Tree brand leading in most western states and the company’s Family Dollar banner receiving the plurality of visits in Wyoming. Dollar Tree was also the most-visited chain in several states on the East Coast, including Maryland, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Massachusetts.
Dollar General, meanwhile, received the majority or plurality of the visit share in the rest of the country.
But although Dollar General does receive a majority of the combined Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Family Dollar visit share nationwide, the Discount & Dollar Store category does not conform to a “winner-take-all” model. In many states, Dollar Tree’s visit share is just slightly lower than that of Dollar General.
In New York, for example, where Dollar General received 44.6% of the combined visit share in Q1 2024, 38.1% of visits in the same period went to Dollar Tree. And in Florida, where 44.2% of the combined visits to the three banners went to Dollar General, 38.2% of visits went to Dollar Tree. It seems, then, that even in states where Dollar General takes the lead, there is plenty of Discount & Dollar Store demand to sustain multiple players in the space.
Early 2024 data suggests that the Discount & Dollar Store sector is not slowing down any time soon. What will the rest of the year have in store for the space?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
Equinox hit the news this week as they rolled out a new $40,000 per year longevity membership called “Optimize by Equinox.” This program promises to provide a personalized health plan of action that includes personal training, nutrition, sleep coaching, and massage therapy. There will also be biomarker testing in partnership with Function Health and fitness testing. New York City and Highland Park, Texas are the pioneering locations for this program, with more to come. Placer took a look at the Highland Park location as well as one on Greenwich Ave in New York City. The Highland Park location has shown extraordinary year-over-year growth, with each month of the year showing increases compared to the prior year. The New York City location is a bit more mixed but had a strong showing year-over-year last fall and at the beginning of 2024.
A 2023 survey by A/B Consulting and Maveron VC suggested that almost half (46%) of people earning over $250,000 would spend the majority of their discretionary income on trying to improve health and longevity, compared to only 34% of people earning under $50,000. Bryan Johnson is a tech millionaire who is often in the press with his latest experiments at reversing aging. From routine MRIs to frequent sampling of bodily fluids, he is a rare example of what one might do to try to live forever if one had nearly unlimited means to do so. While not all of us have millions to spend on unlocking the secrets to the fountain of youth, there’s no doubt that wellness and longevity are top of mind for many people, be it endeavoring to walk 10,000 steps a day or aiming for a rainbow diet. Looking at Equinox in Highland Park in Dallas, TX we see that indeed, this wealthy enclave is an apt location to pioneer this longevity offering. In the true trade area capturing 70% of visits, more than 3 in 10 have a household income exceeding $200K.
The Spatial.ai PersonaLive dataset further cements the fact that the top visitor segments are a group with higher-than-average discretionary incomes, such as Young Professionals, Educated Urbanites, Sunset Boomers, and Ultra Wealthy Families.
Additional data from the AGS Behavior & Attitudes dataset indicates that among those living in trade areas comprising 70% of visits to the Highland Park Equinox, many are indeed health-oriented, over-indexing on behaviors such as exercising (index 122), being yoga enthusiasts (index 168), and utilizing mobile app fitness trackers (index 160). However, they tend to under-index on getting regular medical checkups (index 86) - which is exactly where Optimize could fit in with its frequent testing and personalized approach. In addition, this particular location might want to take advantage of the clamor for pedicures (index 137) and manicures (index 147) and consider increased retail media network exposure due to enthusiasm for health info from TV (index 159).
Of all the specialty retail sectors, baby has been one of the most interesting to watch over the past few years for a few reasons. The industry is closely tied to a specific consumer life stage, and the CDC recently reported that the birth rate in the United States declined 2% in 2023, reaching the lowest rate recorded. If fewer consumers enter the family formation life stage, or have fewer children, the pool of potential visitors for retailers to draw from slowly dries up. The industry also faced massive disruption over the past year with the bankruptcy of Bed Bath & Beyond and the shuttering of its buybuy Baby chain last summer. The buybuy Baby closure marked the end of the large specialty baby chain sector in the retail industry, with the category facing the bifurcation of sales and traffic between big box retailers + Amazon and small independent specialty retailers.
Still, there have been some signs of life for baby-based retail despite the headwinds. Babylist, a popular online registry tool, launched its first brick-and-mortar outpost in Los Angeles last year. Buybuy Baby’s new owners reopened 11 locations in late 2023, concentrated in New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Then, in March, Kohl’s announced its partnership with WHP Global to bring Babies“R”Us to its stores. The Babies“R”Us shop-in-shop format receives a lot of positive momentum from both the Sephora at Kohl's partnership as well as the Toys“R”Us & Macy’s partnership; both predecessor collaborations have been rolled out to a majority, if not all, doors.
This week, we learned of the 200 initial locations receiving the Babies“R”Us (BRU) concept this summer, which will receive a wide assortment of hardgoods and softgoods, and be positioned next to the children’s apparel department. This new partnership is no doubt a continuation of Kohl’s strategy to attract and retain younger visitors, and the Babies“R”Us model can hopefully help the retailer hold onto Sephora shoppers as they enter the family formation period. Another likely goal is to steal some market share away from the mass merchants dominating in baby and lure some former buybuy Baby shoppers.
According to Placer.ai data, The Babies“R”Us + Kohl’s locations performed similarly to the total Kohl’s chain in 2024, with both chains showing visits down 23% year-over-year. The Babies“R”Us + Kohl’s locations do have a slightly higher visitor median household income of $84k compared to the total chain at $81K, which supports the notion that the Sephora & Babies“R”Us partnerships are meant to bring premium offerings to the typical store.
The partnership launch, as mentioned above, is a clear offensive move to capture some of the former buybuy Baby business in the areas where the locations did not reopen. Using Placer’s location analytics, we compared a national subset of 16 former buybuy Baby locations to the newly announced Babies”R”Us + Kohl’s locations. Looking at the visit demographics between the Kohl’s locations in the first four months of 2024 and the former buybuy Baby locations in 2023, it’s clear that Kohl’s attracts a suburban family and more mature consumer base, as where buybuy Baby locations were a stronghold with young urban singles and young professionals. Kohl’s may have an opportunity to attract new or existing grandparents to the partner stores, but will need to use the Sephora angle to attract younger consumers who may also be looking to start a family in the next few years.
Kohl’s is also betting big on the East Coast, with a number of partnership stores located in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts. A few of these locations are in direct competition with the newly reopened buybuy Baby locations and will create some fascinating local competition. In the Boston metro area, there are both a Kohl’s and buybuy Baby location within 9 miles of each other but have local differences that may benefit Kohl’s entry into the market. Kohl’s has a median household income of about $30k more than visits to buybuy Baby and also captures more loyalty, with more loyal visits than buybuy Baby throughout the first four months of 2024.
This particular Kohl’s location has a smaller disparity to buybuy Baby in attracting young professionals, but it also attracts wealthier and more mature visitors that once again may translate into attracting parents and grandparents. 22% of buybuy Baby’s trade area overlaps with Kohl’s and the two share 11 square miles of overlapping trade area, so it will be interesting to see how Kohl’s can pull visits away from the competition.
As 2024 progresses, Kohl’s opens its partnership locations, baby retail will hopefully find its footing and provide retail solutions for potential and new parents. E-commerce has filled the void for baby registry services, but brick-and-mortar retail still holds a lot of importance for parents. Baby specialty retail is essential to the success of baby products and brands, and there is a lot of white space opportunity in the category for retailers to emerge to take share. Consumers, even if there are fewer of them, need experiences and solutions provided by retailers, and baby retail is a cautionary, but optimistic tale for other specialty sectors for the remainder of the year.
To optimize office utilization and surrounding activity in 2026, stakeholders should:
1. Plan for continued, but slower, office recovery. Attendance continues to rise and has reached a post-pandemic high, but moderating growth suggests the return-to-office may progress at a more gradual and incremental pace than in prior years.
2. Account for growing seasonality in office staffing, local retail operations, and municipal services. As office visitation becomes increasingly concentrated in late spring and summer, offices, downtown retailers, and cities may need to plan for more predictable peaks and troughs by adjusting hours, staffing levels, and local services accordingly, rather than relying on annual averages.
3. Align leasing strategies with seasonal demand. Stronger attendance in Q2 and Q3 suggests these quarters are best suited for leasing activity, while softer Q1 and Q4 periods may be better used for renovations, repositioning, and targeted activation efforts designed to draw workers in.
4. Design hybrid policies around midweek anchor days. With Tuesdays and Wednesdays consistently driving the highest office attendance, employers can maximize collaboration and space utilization by concentrating meetings, programming, and in-office expectations midweek.
5. Reduce early-week commute friction to support attendance. Monday office attendance appears closely correlated with commute ease, suggesting that reliable and efficient transportation may be an important factor in early-week office recovery.
6. Prioritize proximity in leasing and development decisions. Visits from employees traveling less than five miles to work have increased steadily since 2019, reinforcing the value of centrally located offices and housing near employment hubs.
2025 was the year of the return-to-office (RTO) mandate. Employers across industries – from Amazon to JPMorgan Chase – instituted full-time on-site requirements and sought to rein in remote work. But the year also underscored the limits of policy. As employee pushback and enforcement challenges mounted, many organizations turned to quieter tactics such as “hybrid creep” to gradually expand in-office expectations without triggering outright resistance.
For employers seeking to boost attendance, as well as office owners, retailers, and cities looking to maximize today’s visitation patterns, understanding what actually drives employee behavior has become more critical than ever. This reports dives into the data to examine office visitation patterns in 2025 – and explore how structural factors such as weather, commute convenience, and workplace proximity have emerged as key differentiators shaping how and when, and how often workers come into the office.
National office visits rose 5.6% year over year in 2025, bringing attendance to just 31.7% below pre-pandemic levels and marking the highest point since COVID disrupted workplace routines. At the same time, the pace of growth slowed compared to 2024, signaling a possible transition into a steadier phase of recovery.
With new return-to-office mandates expected in 2026, and the balance of power quietly shifting towards employers, additional gains remain likely. But the trajectory suggested by the data points toward gradual progress rather than a return to the more rapid rebounds seen in 2023 or 2024.
Before COVID, “I couldn’t come in, it was raining” would have sounded like a flimsy excuse to most bosses. But today, weather, travel, and individual scheduling are widely accepted reasons to stay home, reflecting a broader assumption that face time should flex around convenience.
This shift is visible in the growing seasonality of office visitation, which has intensified even as overall attendance continues to rise. In 2019, office life followed a relatively steady year-round cadence, with only modest quarterly variation after adjusting for the number of working days. In recent years, however, greater seasonality has emerged. Since 2024, Q1 and Q4 have consistently underperformed while Q2 and Q3 have posted meaningfully stronger attendance – a pattern that became even more pronounced in 2025. Winter weather disruptions, extended holiday travel, and the growing normalization of “workations” appear to be pulling some visits out of the colder, holiday-heavy months and concentrating them into late spring and summer.
For employers, office owners, downtown retailers, and city planners, this emerging seasonality matters. Staffing, operating budgets, and programming decisions increasingly need to account for predictable soft quarters and peak periods, making quarterly planning a more useful lens than annual averages. Leasing activity may also convert best in Q2 and Q3, when districts feel most active. Slower quarters, meanwhile, may be better suited for renovations, construction, or employer- and city-led programming designed to give workers a reason to show up.
The growing premium placed on convenience is also evident in the persistence of the TGIF workweek – and in the factors shaping its regional variability.
Before COVID, Mondays were typically the busiest day of the week, followed by relatively steady attendance through Thursday and a modest drop-off on Fridays. Today, Tuesdays and Wednesdays have firmly established themselves as the primary anchor days, while Mondays and Fridays see consistently lower activity. And notably, this pattern has remained essentially stable over the past three years – despite minor fluctuations – as workers continue to cluster their in-office time around the days that offer the most perceived value while preserving flexibility at the edges of the week.
At the same time, while the hybrid workweek remains firmly entrenched nationwide, its contours vary significantly across regions – and the data suggests that convenience is once again a key differentiator.
Across major markets, a clear pattern emerges: Cities with higher reliance on public transportation tend to see weaker Monday office attendance, while markets where more workers drive alone show stronger early-week presence. While industry mix and local office culture still matter, the data points to commute hassle as another factor potentially shaping Monday attendance.
New York City, excluded from the chart below as a clear outlier, stands as the exception that proves the rule. Despite nearly half of local employees relying on public transportation (48.7% according to the Census 2024 (ACS)), the city’s extensive and deeply embedded transit system appears to reduce perceived friction. In 2025, Mondays accounted for 18.4% of weekly office visits in the city, even with heavy transit usage.
The contrast highlights an important nuance: Where transit is fast, frequent, and integrated into daily routines, it can support office recovery, offering a potential roadmap for other dense urban markets seeking to rebuild early-week momentum.
Another powerful signal of today’s convenience-first mindset shows up in commute distances. Since 2019, the share of office visits generated by employees traveling less than five miles has steadily increased, largely at the expense of mid-distance commuters traveling 10 to 25 miles.
To be sure, this metric reflects total visits rather than unique visitors, so the shift may be driven by increased visit frequency among workers with shorter, simpler commutes rather than a change in where employees live overall. Still, the pattern is telling: Workers with shorter commutes appear more likely to generate repeat in-person visits, while longer and more complex commutes correspond with fewer trips. Over time, this dynamic could shape office leasing decisions, residential demand near employment centers – whether in urban cores or in nearby suburbs – and the geography of the workforce.
Taken together, the data paints a clear picture of the modern return-to-office landscape. Attendance is rising, but behavior is no longer driven by mandates alone. Instead, workers are making rational, convenience-based decisions about when coming in is worth the effort.
For cities, the implication is straightforward: Ease of access matters. Investments in transit reliability, last-mile connectivity, and housing near employment centers can all play a meaningful role in shaping how consistently people show up. For employers, too, the lesson is that the path back to the office runs through convenience, not just compulsion, as attendance gains are increasingly driven by how effectively organizations reduce friction and increase the perceived value of being on-site.
1. AI is raising the bar for physical retail as shoppers arrive more informed, more intentional, and less tolerant of friction – though the impact varies by category and format.
2. As discovery shifts upstream, stores increasingly serve as confirmation rather than discovery points where shoppers validate decisions through hands-on experience and expert guidance.
3. AI-based tools can improve in-store performance by removing operational friction – shortening trips in efficiency-led formats and supporting deeper engagement in experience-led ones.
4. By embedding expertise directly into frontline workflows, AI helps retailers deliver consistent, high-quality service despite high turnover and limited training windows.
5. AI enables precise, location-specific marketing and execution, allowing retailers of any size to align assortments, staffing, and messaging with real local demand.
6. Retailers can also use AI to manage their store fleets with greater discipline and understand where to expand, where to avoid cannibalization, and where to rightsize based on observed demand rather than static assumptions.
7. AI is not a universal lever in physical retail; its value depends on the store format, and in discovery-driven models it should support operations behind the scenes rather than reshape the customer experience.
Physical retail has faced repeated claims of obsolescence, from the rise of e-commerce to the shock of COVID. Each time, analysts predicted a structural decline in brick-and-mortar. And each time, physical retail adapted.
AI has triggered a similar round of predictions. Much of the current discussion frames retail’s future as a binary outcome: either stores become heavily automated, or e-commerce becomes so optimized that physical locations lose relevance altogether.
But past disruptions point in a different direction. E-commerce changed how physical retail operated by raising expectations for omnichannel integration, speed, and clarity of purpose. Retailers that adjusted store formats, merchandising, and operations accordingly went on to drive sustained growth.
AI likely represents another inflection point for physical retail. As shoppers arrive with more information, clearer intent, and even less tolerance for friction than in the age of "old-fashioned" e-commerce, physical stores will remain – but the standards they are held to continue to rise.
This report presents four ways retailers are using AI to get – and stay – ahead as physical retail adapts to this next wave of disruption.
E-commerce moved discovery earlier in the shopping journey. Instead of beginning the process in-store, many shoppers now arrive at brick-and-mortar locations after having deeply researched products, comparing options, and narrowing choices online – entering the store to validate rather than initiate their purchasing decision.
AI-powered shopping accelerates this pattern. Conversational assistants, recommendation engines, and AI-driven discovery across search and social reduce the time and effort required to evaluate options – and this shift is changing consumers' expectations around the in-store experience.
Apple shows what it looks like when a physical store is built for well-informed shoppers. Given the prevalence of AI-powered search and assistants in high-consideration categories like consumer electronics, Apple customers likely arrive at the Apple Store with more preferences already shaped by AI-assisted research than other retail categories.
Apple Stores were designed for this kind of customer long before AI became widespread. The layout puts working products directly in customers’ hands, merchandising emphasizes live use over promotional signage, and associates are trained to answer detailed technical questions rather than walk shoppers through basic options.
That alignment is showing up in store behavior. Even as AI-powered shopping expands, Apple Stores continue to see rising foot traffic and longer visits thanks to the store's specific and curated role in the customer journey – a place where customers confirm decisions through hands-on experience and expert guidance.
Some applications of AI extend trends that e-commerce has already introduced. Others address operational challenges that previously required manual coordination or tradeoffs.
AI can reduce friction and make store visits more predictable by improving staffing allocation, reducing checkout delays, optimizing inventory placement, and managing traffic flow. These changes reduce friction without altering the visible customer experience.
Sam's Club offers a clear, recent example of AI solving a specific in-store bottleneck. For years, customers completed checkout only to face a second line at the exit, where an employee manually scanned paper receipts and spot-checked carts.
In early 2024, Sam’s Club introduced computer vision-powered exit gates, allowing customers to exit the store without stopping as AI algorithms instantly captured images of the items in their carts and matched them against digital purchase data. Employees previously tasked with receipt checks could now shift their focus to member assistance and in-store support.
The impact was measurable. Sam’s Club reported that customers now exit stores 23% faster than under manual receipt checks, a result confirmed by a sustained nationwide decline in average dwell time. During the same period, in-store traffic increased 3.3% year-over-year – demonstrating how removing friction with AI can deliver tangible gains.
AI optimizes stores for different outcomes. At Sam’s Club, it shortens visits by removing friction from task-driven trips. At Apple, upstream research leads to longer visits focused on testing, questions, and decision validation. In both cases, AI aligns store execution with shopper intent – prioritizing speed and throughput in efficiency-led formats and deeper engagement in experience-led ones.
Beyond shaping store roles and streamlining operations, AI can also address a long-standing challenge in physical retail: delivering consistent, high-quality expertise on the sales floor despite high turnover and seasonal staffing. In the past, retailers relied on heavy training investments that often failed to pay off. AI can now embed that expertise directly into frontline workflows, allowing associates to deliver confident, informed service regardless of tenure and strengthening the in-store experience at scale.
In May 2025, Lowe’s rolled out a major in-store AI enhancement called Mylow Companion, an AI-powered assistant that equips frontline staff with real-time, expert support on product details, home improvement projects, inventory, and customer questions.
Mylow Companion is embedded directly into associates’ handheld devices, delivering instant guidance through natural, conversational interactions, including voice-to-text. This enables even newly hired employees to provide confident, expert-level advice from day one, while helping experienced associates upsell and cross-sell more effectively. The tool complements Mylow, a customer-facing AI advisor launched the same year to help shoppers plan projects and discover the right products, leading to increased customer satisfaction.
While AI alone cannot solve demand challenges—especially amid macroeconomic pressure on large-ticket discretionary spending—early signals suggest it may still play a meaningful role. Location analytics indicate narrowing year-over-year visit gaps at Lowe’s post-deployment, pointing to a potentially improved in-store experience. And Home Depot’s recent announcement of agentic AI tools developed with Google Cloud suggests that these technologies are becoming table stakes in this category.
As more retailers roll out similar capabilities, those that moved earlier are better positioned to help set the bar – and benefit as the market adapts.
Beyond improving the in-store experience, AI also gives retailers a powerful way to drive foot traffic through precision marketing. By processing large volumes of behavioral, location, and timing data, AI can help retailers decide who to reach, when to engage them, where to activate, and what message or assortment will resonate – shifting marketing from broad seasonal pushes to campaigns grounded in local demand.
Target offers an early example of this approach before AI became widespread. Stores near college campuses have long tailored assortments and messaging around the academic calendar, especially during the back-to-school season. In August, these locations emphasize dorm essentials, compact storage, bedding, tech accessories, and affordable décor – supported by campaigns aimed at students and parents preparing for move-in. That localized approach has been effective in driving in-store traffic to Target stores near college campuses, with these venues seeing consistent visit spikes every August and outperforming the national average across multiple back-to-school seasons from 2023 to 2025.
AI makes local execution repeatable at scale. By analyzing visit patterns, past performance, and timing signals across thousands of locations, retailers can decide which products to promote, how to staff stores, and when to run campaigns at each location. Marketing, merchandising, and store operations then act on the same demand signals instead of separate assumptions.
Crucially, AI makes this level of localization accessible to retailers of all sizes. What once required the resources and institutional knowledge of a big-box giant can now be achieved through precision marketing and demand forecasting tools, allowing brands to adapt each store’s messaging, assortment, and execution to the unique rhythms of its community.
Beyond improving performance at individual stores, AI can also give retailers a clearer view of how their entire store fleet is working – and where it should grow, contract, or change. By analyzing foot traffic patterns, trade areas, customer overlap, and visit frequency across locations, AI helps retailers identify which sites are truly reaching their target audiences and which are underperforming relative to local demand.
AI also plays a critical role in smarter expansion. Retailers can use it to identify markets and neighborhoods where demand is growing, customer overlap is low, and incremental visits are likely – reducing the risk of cannibalization when opening new stores. By modeling how shoppers move between existing locations, AI can flag when a proposed site will attract new customers versus simply shifting traffic from nearby stores, grounding expansion decisions in observed behavior rather than demographic proxies or intuition alone.
Equally important, AI helps retailers recognize when expansion no longer makes sense. By tracking total fleet traffic, visit growth, and trade-area saturation, retailers can assess whether new stores are adding net demand or diluting performance. The same signals can identify locations where demand has structurally declined, informing rightsizing decisions and store closures. In this way, AI supports a more disciplined approach to physical retail – one that treats the store fleet as a dynamic system to be optimized over time, rather than a footprint that only grows.
The impact of AI on physical retail will vary significantly by category and format. Not every successful store experience is built around efficiency, prediction, or pre-qualification. Retailers with clearly differentiated offline value don’t necessarily benefit from forcing AI into customer-facing experiences that dilute what makes their stores work.
“Treasure hunt” formats are a clear example. Off-price retailers like TJ Maxx, Marshalls, Ross, and Burlington continue to drive strong traffic by offering unpredictability, scarcity, and discovery that cannot be replicated – or meaningfully enhanced – through AI-driven search or recommendation. The appeal lies precisely in not knowing what you’ll find. For these retailers, heavy investment in AI-led personalization or pre-shopping guidance risks undermining the core experience rather than improving it.
Similar dynamics apply in other categories. Independent boutiques, vintage stores, resale shops, and certain specialty retailers succeed by offering curation, serendipity, and human taste rather than optimization. In these cases, AI may still play a role behind the scenes – supporting inventory planning, pricing, or site selection – but it should not reshape the customer-facing experience. AI is most valuable when it reinforces a retailer’s existing value proposition. Formats built around discovery, surprise, or experiential browsing should protect those strengths, even as other parts of the retail landscape move toward greater efficiency and intent-driven shopping.
AI is forcing physical retail to evolve with intention. By creating a supportive environment for customers who arrive with made-up minds, removing friction inside the store, offering the best in-store services, and orchestrating demand with greater precision, retailers are adapting to the new world standards set by AI. All five strategies focus on aligning stores with shopper intent – what customers want, how the store supports it, and when the interaction happens.
The retailers that win in this next era won’t be the ones that use AI to simply automate what already exists. They’ll be the ones that use it to sharpen the role of physical retail – turning stores into places that help shoppers validate decisions, deliver value beyond convenience, and show up at exactly the right moment in a customer’s journey.
In the age of AI, physical retail wins by becoming more intentional – designed around informed shoppers, optimized for the right outcome in each format, and activated at moments when demand is real.
If 2025 proved anything, it’s that the American consumer hasn’t stopped spending – they’ve just become incredibly selective about who earns their dollar. As we look toward 2026, success isn't just about weathering headwinds; it's about identifying the specific operational levers that drive traffic.
We analyzed the data to identify ten retail and dining standouts (presented in no particular order) that are especially well-positioned for the year ahead. From grocery icons mastering hyper-authenticity to fitness challengers proving that low price doesn't mean low quality, these companies have demonstrated a powerful understanding of their audience and the operational agility to meet them where they are.
Here – in no particular order – are the brands setting the pace for 2026.
When we pick retailers for our Ten Top list, there are some that rest on the edgier side and others that look fairly down the middle. Picking H-E-B, a grocer that has seen monthly visits up year over year (YoY) for all but one month since April of 2021, is clearly not one of the bolder claims. But consistent success shouldn’t preclude a retailer from receiving its well deserved kudos, and there are some unique reasons that H-E-B specifically needs to be included this year.
H-E-B exemplifies the single most important trend in retail: the need for a brand to have authenticity and a clear reason for being. The retailer understands its audience, and as a result, it’s able to optimize its merchandising, promotions, and experience to best serve that loyal customer base. This pops in the data when we see the loyalty H-E-B commands, especially when compared to the grocery average.
In addition, the chain has also embraced adjacent innovation, leveraging its existing fleet by adding True Texas BBQ to a growing number of locations. The offering not only helps maximize the revenue potential of each visit, it taps into the core identity of the brand, further deepening customer connection and authenticity. The strategy also signals H-E-B’s understanding of emerging consumer behaviors – particularly the increase in shoppers turning to grocery stores for affordable, restaurant-quality lunches. And this combination of expanding revenue channels while heightening H-E-B’s uniqueness should also carry over into the value and impact of its retail media network.
In short, H-E-B has not only identified a critical route to success, it continues to embrace channels that widen revenue potential while doubling down on foundational strengths.
In 2024, Michaels held nearly 32.0% of overall visit share among the top four retailers in the wider crafts and hobby space. By the second half of 2025, that number had skyrocketed to just over 40.0% – driven largely by the closures of key competitors JoAnn Fabrics and Party City.
And it isn’t just that the removal of competitors is increasing the share of overall visits; the rate of capture appears to be accelerating. In Q2 2025, visits rose 7.3% YoY as Michaels began absorbing traffic from Party City, which closed the bulk of its locations by March. Growth strengthened further in Q3, with visits up 13.1% YoY following the completion of JoAnn’s shutdown in May. But during the all-important Q4, traffic surged even higher YoY, suggesting that that consolidation alone doesn’t fully explain the gains.
While the tailwinds of competitor closures clearly help, there are other strategies that are helping the retailer maximize this wave. Whether it be NFL partnerships to boost the retailer’s Sunday role in American households, a push into the framing space with 10-minute custom framing, the addition of JoAnn’s branded merchandise to its offerings, or even a challenge to Etsy’s online dominance with a new marketplace – Michaels is making moves to take full advantage of their improved positioning. There is also an argument to be made that Michaels is the retailer best poised to benefit from the segment’s consolidation, given that it is also the most oriented to a higher income consumer among top players in the category. This could help unlock other more focused concepts and promotions, and better align with an audience now looking for a retail replacement.
Walmart is the dominant player in physical retail.
And they leverage this position to push forward new offerings that extend revenue potential while maximizing per-store impact. They are a pioneer in the retail media space and have been using their unique reach to push that side of the business forward. Add to that the fact that they have been among the savviest players in all of retail in identifying the ideal approach to omnichannel, utilizing their massive physical footprint to improve their reach via BOPIS and store-fulfilled e-commerce.
All good reasons for inclusion, right?
But, here’s the kicker - from a pure visit perspective, things are going from good to better. Between January and September 2025, Walmart visits were essentially flat year over year – a good position for a retailer with such a massive reach and such strength shown in recent years. Yet, since October, visits have actually been on the rise, with Q4 2025 showing a 2.5% YoY traffic increase and several weeks exceeding 4.0% YoY.
A retail giant with even more potential growth than we might have expected – and one that’s pushing the very strategies we believe are the key to future success? That’s certainly a reason for inclusion.
Including a department store again on this year’s list? It seems counterintuitive to many of the narratives that ran through 2025, especially as middle-class consumers continue to be squeezed financially. However, Dillard’s still appears to be an exception to the rule, with performance more closely aligned to that of luxury department store brands like Bloomingdales & Nordstrom than to its true competitive set.
In 2025, visitation to Dillard’s was essentially flat YoY – though the chain has consistently outperformed the wider department store category. Dillard’s stands at a unique point somewhere between a mid-tier and luxury department store, and that distinction may be its secret to success. The retailer continues to wow with strong private label offerings that rival and often exceed national brands, a diverse merchandise mix, and locations that often benefit from indoor mall traffic trends.
While Dillard’s lags behind the wider department store category, for example, in terms of repeat visitation and the share of wealthy visitors, these factors may actually create an advantage. Efforts by Dillard's to refresh its product mix through limited-edition capsule collections and new brand launches may be helping it attract a steady inflow of economically diverse new shoppers. And the ability to continually win over new segments without alienating a “core customer” could be a strength amid economic headwinds and waning consumer sentiment.
At the same time, a more diverse visitor profile means that Dillard’s can truly be the department store for many consumers, with a product range that strikes a chord with different shopper segments.
Department stores truly aren’t dead, and those who have found their reason to exist continue to garner attention with shoppers.
If the retail industry had a symbol for 2025, it was probably Labubu. The toy-and-collectible-turned–bag charm took consumers by storm in the second quarter of the year, and POP MART – the retailer responsible for bringing Labubus stateside – quickly became an overnight sensation. Visits to the chain surged over the summer at the height of the craze, while trade areas expanded as customers traveled significant distances to get their hands on a doll.
And although the frenzy cooled somewhat in early fall, visits to POP MART locations like the one in Tulalip, WA began trending upward once again in November 2025 as the holiday season approached, surging even higher in December. Trade area size also increased dramatically during the holiday shopping period, as consumers rushed to get their hands on the chain’s coveted line of festive blind boxes.
As demonstrated by the recent Starbucks Bearista craze, consumers are all-in on cool collectible items that make life more fun – a trend POP MART, strategically located in high-traffic malls popular with younger shoppers, is uniquely positioned to ride. During times of economic uncertainty, consumers crave small ways to indulge, and affordable collectibles that are cute, cuddly, and fun have worked their way into the American zeitgeist.
So, what is next for POP MART? Can it continue to sustain its momentum? It seems likely that Labubus are here to stay, at least for a little while longer, before the retailer hopefully strikes it big with the next “must have”.
When all is said and done, 2021-2025 will likely be viewed as a pivotal turning point for the U.S. coffee industry. As the country recovered from the pandemic, consumer interaction with coffee brands fundamentally shifted. With more employees working from home – bypassing the traditional pre-work coffee run – visit trends migrated to later in the morning and afternoon. Meanwhile, industry-wide dwell times shortened as consumers renewed their focus on convenience.
This move away from the sit-down café experience placed significant pressure on industry leaders, accelerating the shift toward drive-thru and mobile order-and-pay options. This moment of friction also created space for drive-thru-centric challengers like Dutch Bros, which rapidly expanded on the strength of speed and menu innovation.
Among these challengers, 7 Brew stands out as a fast-rising powerhouse heading into 2026. Expanding outward from its Arkansas roots, 7 Brew has been strategic about market entry and site selection for its unique double-drive-thru format. And with a concept that resonates with younger demographics and a footprint adaptable to various geographies, the coffee chain has become a go-to destination for rural and small-town communities, while also maintaining solid reach among more traditional coffee segments like wealthy suburbanites and urban singles. Thanks in part to this broad appeal, 7 Brew is well-positioned for future growth, even as it faces stiffer competition in new markets.
It is no secret that most of the growth in the QSR space over the past two decades has been driven by chicken concepts. Chick-fil-A, rising from a regional chain to a national player throughout the late 1990s and 2000s, was the first to disrupt the burger’s stranglehold on QSR. Raising Cane’s followed in the 2010s with a model built on menu simplicity and operational excellence, earning its place as one of the largest chains in the category. More recently, hot chicken has emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments – and Dave’s Hot Chicken is leading the charge.
No single factor accounts for Dave’s growth from a lone unit in Los Angeles to over 350 units today. Certainly, a wide assortment of sauces and flavor profiles has resonated with U.S. consumers who are increasingly seeking spicier products, while Dave’s 'rebel' brand positioning has successfully attracted younger audiences. And at a time when many QSR and fast-casual chains are abandoning urban locations in favor of suburban markets, Dave’s Hot Chicken continues to open predominantly in urban settings – a strategy that may prove advantageous as migration patterns shift back toward major cities this year.
With so much of the industry’s expansion driven by chicken concepts, it is natural to ask: Have we reached 'peak chicken'? While we are certainly seeing other categories gain traction – think CAVA – Dave’s unique product mix and edgier marketing should help it stand out, even amidst increased competition.
While many discretionary retail categories – including consumer electronics, sporting goods, home improvement, and furniture – are still waiting for post-pandemic demand to recover, housewares retailers have generally enjoyed solid visit trends in 2025. Although consumers may not be financially positioned for large-scale remodels, we are now five years past the pandemic, and many residents (many of whom still work from home) are looking to refresh their living spaces.
It may therefore come as no surprise that TJX Companies’ HomeGoods and Homesense brands had an exceptional 2025 and are well-positioned to repeat this success in 2026.
This year, we observed a behavioral shift among middle-income consumers, including a clear “trade down” from mid-tier department stores and other discretionary categories. In addition, accumulated housing wear-and-tear, the recent bankruptcies of value-oriented competitors such as Conn’s and At Home, and the enduring appeal of the treasure hunt retail model, have all reinforced the brands’ momentum. Taken together, these trends leave HomeGoods and Homesense poised for both continued unit growth and increased traffic in the year ahead.
With the heightened emphasis on health and wellness post-pandemic, fitness is proving to be a category with remarkable staying power well beyond New Year’s resolution season – even in an era of macroeconomic uncertainty. Whether it’s pumping iron, hitting the treadmill, or joining fitness classes, staying healthy no longer requires breaking the bank – for just a dollar a day or less, gymgoers can build strength and endurance, achieve their rep goals, and hit their mileage targets. And affordable fitness chains – those that charge less than $30 per month – are reaping the benefits, outperforming more expensive gyms for YoY visit growth.
Among this value-oriented fitness cohort, EōS saw outsized traffic growth in 2025, with both overall visits and average visits per location outpacing competitors as the chain expands its footprint. EōS’s motto, “High Value, Low Price,” appears to be resonating strongly – especially in a year when similar value propositions are driving momentum across off-price retailers, value grocers, and dollar stores. Longer-than-average dwell times at EōS provide another encouraging signal, suggesting that its amenities, including pools, saunas, basketball courts, and equipment assortments typically found in higher-priced gyms, are truly connecting with visitors. And since visitors who stay longer are more likely to return – and to renew their memberships – EōS is well-positioned to convert this year’s traffic gains into lasting market share.
Eating and entertainment are a match made in heaven — and by leaning into a subscription model that meets price-sensitive customers where they are, Chuck E. Cheese has solidified its position as a standout in the eatertainment category.
Nearly 50 years old, this evergreen children’s entertainment concept has stood the test of time and now boasts roughly 500 venues nationwide. Its perennial tagline – “where a kid can be a kid” – still resonates with today’s children and with the parents who grew up with the brand. After languishing for several years in the wake of COVID, the company turned things around with a revamped Summer Fun Pass launched on April 30th, 2024. The offer of unlimited play per month sparked a dramatic boost in customer loyalty, and the model proved so successful that the company extended it year-round with a family pass as low as $7.99 per month.
This strategy has helped sustain visit growth throughout 2025. Despite closing several locations during the year, visits to Chuck E. Cheese rose 8.3% YoY – well above the flat eatertainment average. And the company’s loyalty rates outpaced last year from August through November, indicating that the offering isn’t losing steam and that customers continue to respond enthusiastically.
The diversity of brands featured in this report highlights that there is no single path to success in 2026.
H-E-B and Chuck E. Cheese demonstrate the power of deepening loyalty through authentic experiences and value-driven memberships. Michaels and HomeGoods show how savvy retailers can capitalize on competitor consolidation and changing consumer spending habits. Meanwhile, Walmart and 7 Brew prove that even in saturated markets, operational innovation can drive fresh momentum.
As we move deeper into 2026, the brands that win will be those that, like the ten profiled here, combine a clear understanding of their unique value proposition with the agility to execute on it.
