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At the start of 2025, expectations for retail were optimistic – focused on replacement cycles, a rebound in discretionary spending, and continued consumer strength. In reality, the year has been far more disruptive than that early narrative anticipated.
Consumers faced ongoing pressure from economic uncertainty, weather disruptions, employment concerns, and declining confidence. With consumers more connected to real-time news than ever, shoppers adjusted their retail decisions quickly as conditions changed, often taking a cautious, defensive approach to spending.
The discretionary side of the retail industry, also known as general merchandise, has shouldered most of the impact of changing consumer dynamics. As consumers looked to create a balance between their needs and their wants, oftentimes the “needs” won out. In general, visitation to non-discretionary categories has remained relatively stable, while there has been more volatility across the discretionary space.
The non-discretionary retail sectors benefited from value based models like value grocery chains and dollar and discount stores. Warehouse clubs emerged as the new one-stop-shop for consumers as superstores struggled to maintain in-store traffic. And fresh format grocery stores still found success with wealthier consumers and new store formats.
Despite the challenges overall, there have still been pockets of growth and emerging trends that have shaped the discretionary sector. And, despite a lot of stormy weather, consumers continue to maintain some level of resilience. In particular, the holiday season has been shaped by this unforeseen optimism despite the circumstances of many shoppers.
Here’s a look back at the trends and stories that shaped discretionary categories in 2025:
One of the most stark examples of the current retail climate continues to be the bifurcation of consumers. The retail industry, particularly in discretionary categories, has been bolstered by wealthier shoppers, as lower and middle income families become more discerning and stretched financially. This trend became more pronounced throughout 2025, and the second half of 2025 saw a large pullback by “aspirational” shoppers.
The luxury market has been greatly impacted by this trend, as visits by wealthier consumers haven’t been able to offset the decline by more infrequent, aspirational visitors. Overall visit growth to luxury apparel and accessories retailers slowed in Q3 when compared to 2024 levels, and those trends have continued into the holiday season.
According to Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive consumer segmentation, 2025 has seen a higher distribution of visits by Ultra Wealthy Families, Sunset Boomers, and Upper Suburban Diverse Families as there has been a contraction of visits by Near-Urban Diverse Families, and City Hopefuls. Aspirational shoppers who may have once saved for or set aside disposable income for luxury purchases may have had to shift those funds elsewhere as lower income shoppers become more financially strained.
Retailers are going to face more pressure next year as this bifurcation continues and consumer spending becomes more polarized. Full-price brands and those that fit somewhere in the middle are going to need creative solutions to court consumers, especially those who have become much more discerning this year.
The American retail landscape has long been associated with the wide array of specialty retailers that operate all across the country. Whether mastering American fashion, stories, or experiences, retailers have ingrained themselves into the fabric of consumers’ celebrations, gifts, and leisure time.
For many retailers that have led both media coverage and performance in 2025, success has come down to one simple concept: going back to their roots. Retail brands have always been synonymous with specialties, whether it be quality, styling, service, or expertise. Brands that have once again harnessed these elements to repair relationships with consumers and cement their brand value have been able to circumvent a lot of the economic challenges this year.
The return of Gap has been well documented this year, but it bears repeating because it has been remarkable. While all Gap Inc. brands are somewhere along the road to recovery, the flagship brand has been most impressive. Traffic in 2025 was up 1.1% compared to 2024, which is impressive after years of declines. The brand has focused its marketing and merchandising around the return of trend-right, high quality and affordable American fashion, and shoppers have bought in wholeheartedly.
Nordstrom, another top pick for 2025, cemented its place as a category expert and customer service titan. Whether it be the shoe department, the cafe, or the in-store experience, Nordstrom is once again a top-of-mind destination for shoppers, especially those who have higher levels of disposable income. The chain is benefiting from this return to form, with visits up 2.3% in 2025.
Finally, against all odds, Barnes & Noble has continued its momentum this year. As the industry to be first disrupted by e-commerce, the bookstore category has faced an uphill climb after losing major retail chains and a strong digital presence. Barnes & Noble has been able to harness the power of in-store experience to cement itself as part of the consumers’ communities. As shoppers increasingly look to the retail industry as a third place for socializing, the chain has been able to adapt to keep customers in stores for longer.
With uncertain economic conditions, consumers have been much more discerning about discretionary purchases in 2025 – but still crave the concept of treating themselves. Self-gifting has been on the rise for the past few holiday seasons, but 2025 signaled that even when consumers are more intentional about purchasing, they still crave that joy of the shopping experience.
Small indulgence categories have been on the rise or rebound since the second half of 2025. Beauty, in particular, saw a turn in its business as consumers became more discerning. Beauty has always been synonymous with challenging economic times for consumers, with the “lipstick index” often seen as a barometer for consumer sentiment. Beauty’s rebound could very well continue into 2026 if consumers look for those small ways to update their look and satisfy their need to shop.
Collectibles can also fit into the small indulgence category, especially with 2025’s hottest item, Labubu. Although the viral sensation from retailer POP MART became almost impossible to secure, the price point was attainable for most consumers. Similarly, Trade Joe’s viral mini tote bag also comes at a low price point, at $2.99, and consumers continue to flock to the brand’s stores to purchase during the bag's drops in spring and fall.
The pet category has also had a strong 2025 performance, which can somewhat be attributed to the small indulgence trend. Consumers tend to pull back on self-purchasing, but will often limit the impact felt by pets or children. The pet category has not seen much change in consumer behavior and this trend is likely to continue into 2026.
At the start of 2026, discretionary retail has not so much rebounded as recalibrated. The year revealed a consumer who is highly informed, highly selective, and increasingly comfortable walking away – forcing retailers to compete not just on price or promotion, but on relevance. The winners were not those that chased volume at all costs, but those that clearly articulated why they exist, who they serve, and what role they play in consumers’ lives.
Looking ahead to 2026, the forces that shaped this year – income bifurcation, cautious spending, and the prioritization of emotional value – are likely to intensify. Retailers operating in the middle will face the greatest test, as consumers continue to polarize between value-seeking and premium experiences. Growth will likely come from precision: sharper assortments, clearer brand positioning, and formats that respect both consumers’ financial realities and their desire for moments of joy.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Between May of 2021 and November of 2025, The Home Depot saw year-over-year (YoY) visits down 50 of 55 months. The initial downturn was likely driven by the intense pull forward of demand during the pandemic, while the latter struggles were driven by a combination of economic headwinds and sector specific challenges. But, however you contextualize the issues, the result was an average monthly decline of 3.6% YoY from May 2021 to April 2025, despite the final months of that period taking place during the retailer’s normal annual visit peak.
But, there were also very positive signs during that period. The weeks prior to Liberation Day saw YoY visit increases of 2.5% and 4.6%, before tariff concerns drove significant declines, and those declines continued with 14 of the next 15 weeks seeing YoY visit drops.
So where are the signs of a sleeping giant?
For one, visits are getting better. The visit gap between May and November 2025 shrunk to just 0.5% – essentially flat.
Then November saw a visit jump of 3.8%, and the strength was part of a sustained effort, with the eight week period from October 20th to the week beginning December 9th seeing consistent YoY visit increases.
In addition, this strength during the holiday period gives added emphasis to the thinking that Home Depot’s return to growth could have been much earlier were it not for the tariff obstacles that appeared in March and April.
Great brand, clear market leadership and smoother sailing? Sounds like a recipe for a 2026 winner.
In the first half of 2025, Starbucks monthly visits were down 0.6% on average. In the first five months of the second half, that number jumped to being up 1.6%, including a 14 week period between September 1st and the week beginning December 1st where the coffee giant saw visits up 12 of 14 weeks driving October and November visits up 3.2% on average YoY. For context, Q4 2024 was down 2.9% YoY.
The takeaway?
There was real reason to be excited about the directional shifts CEO Brian Niccol built his Back to Starbucks strategy around. The concepts resonated and hearkened back to a Starbucks experience that would leverage its unique brand and status. But ultimately, the excitement needed to center around the belief that these strategies could work and be executed effectively.
The last few months have been a powerful indication that those who held this belief were justified. Visits didn’t improve because of strong coffee headwinds, they improved because Starbucks did what they do best – they owned the calendar and leveraged their creativity and brand to drive huge visit spikes. Cups – whether of the Red or Bearista variety – and menu shifts including the epic annual PSL launch drove visit surges, and the chain's massive footprint positioned it to dominate on major shopping days like Black Friday.
TLDR – the new strategy sounded exciting, there’s real evidence that it’s working, and the chain has maintained its unique hold on the calendar and an industry leading ability to drive urgency and visits almost at the flick of a switch. Lots of reasons to expect the Starbucks recovery to continue gaining momentum.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Craft retailers – one of the top destinations for purchasing holiday decor – posted impressive year-over-year (YoY) gains this holiday season: AI-powered location analytics reveals that visits to industry leaders Michaels and Hobby Lobby were up YoY by double-digits almost every week of the holiday season. And while some of these chains' success is likely due to the reduced competition – with Party City having ceased its operations earlier this year – the strong growth also suggests that, despite digital competition, the demand for physical browsing and festive inspiration remains high.
We dove into the data to analyze how the holiday decor market is evolving.
The 2025 closures of Party City and JOANN consolidated the crafting sector, leaving Michaels and Hobby Lobby with fewer competitors and driving up YoY visits. This market shift proved particularly advantageous in Q4 as shoppers seeking Halloween decorations and holiday trimmings flocked to the remaining specialty retailers.
But Michaels and Hobby Lobby's success is due to more than just a market consolidation – the two chains have cemented themselves as premier destinations for holiday home decor. And while these retailers have traditionally relied on families looking to fill suburban homes with seasonal cheer, AI-powered location analytics reveal that younger, more urban shoppers are also fueling the holiday traffic boost.
Focusing on October and November data reveals that both chains saw the share of "households with children" in their captured market dip between 2024 and 2025, while the share of Young Professionals and Young Urban Singles increased. This suggests that at least some of the holiday decorating in 2025 was fueled not just by family traditions, but also by a younger generation curating their spaces with viral, budget-friendly finds.
While the exit of competitors like Party City and JOANN cleared the playing field in 2025, Michaels and Hobby Lobby's success is due to more than just absorbing the displaced demand. By capturing a new wave of young, urban shoppers hunting for viral trends, these retailers have proven that holiday décor is no longer solely the domain of suburban families. This successful pivot from traditional utility to trend-driven destination suggests that the craft sector isn't just surviving the retail shakeout; it is effectively reshaping itself for a new generation of consumers.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
7 Brew Coffee may be the fastest-growing coffee chain in the US right now. The chain surged from just 14 locations at the start of 2022 to around 500 locations by October 2025. And average visits per location also increased significantly – indicating that despite the breakneck expansion, the drive-thru brand still has significant runway left to grow.
The chain's hypergrowth has been fueled by significant capital, including an equity investment from Blackstone in 2024 and a massive franchise agreement with the Flynn Group to develop an additional 160 stores. With a modular building model that allows for rapid deployment, 7 Brew is positioned to aggressively challenge major drive-thru competitors like Dutch Bros and Scooter's Coffee.
7 Brew's success can also be linked to a broader rise in drive-thru-centric coffee concepts. The chart below illustrates the shifting category dynamics in recent years as leading drive-thru coffee chains – with Dutch Bros in the lead – commanding a growing share of overall coffee visits since 2019.
Even amid the broader rise of drive-thru coffee chains, 7 Brew’s growth continues to stand out. While the brand still holds a relatively small share of the overall coffee market, the brand’s proportional growth outpaces its peers, reflecting both aggressive unit expansion and strong consumer adoption. The chart also underscores how 7 Brew is increasingly carving out space within a segment historically dominated by brands like Dutch Bros – suggesting meaningful long-term competitive potential.
With drive-thru coffee continuing to surge in popularity and consumers gravitating toward convenience-forward formats, 7 Brew is well positioned to continue capturing incremental market share and solidifying its status as one of the fastest-rising brands in the category.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Despite the ongoing consumer headwinds, the 2025 holiday shopping season delivered year-over-year (YoY) gains for both retail and dining chains nationwide, with the majority of states registering retail and dining traffic increases during the holiday window. And while performance varied meaningfully by category and format, aggregate retail traffic numbers point to significant consumer engagement throughout the end of 2025.
Bifurcation has been a defining trend of consumer behavior in 2025 and continued to shape shopping patterns during the holiday season. Thrift stores and off-price retailers led the apparel category with traffic up 11.7% and 6.6% (November 1st to December 24th, 2025), respectively, compared to last year’s holiday period. Luxury chains and department stores also posted modest gains (+1.8%), while traditional apparel chains saw slight declines (-1.8%) and mid-tier department stores experienced more pronounced traffic drops (-6.2%).
Open-air shopping centers led mall-format performance during the 2025 holiday season, with visits up 1.7% YoY, as consumers gravitated toward environments that offered a more festive, experiential atmosphere and a wider mix of dining options. The format likely received an additional lift from warmer-than-average weather across much of the country, which encouraged shoppers to fully take advantage of the outdoor amenities and social experiences open-air centers offer during the holidays.
Indoor mall traffic was largely flat (+0.8%) – a positive signal given ongoing consumer headwinds, especially for mid-tier formats – suggesting that traditional malls were able to maintain relevance during a pressured spending environment.
Meanwhile, outlet mall visits declined slightly (-0.8%), likely reflecting reduced appetite for destination-driven, discretionary trips as shoppers prioritized convenience, everyday value, and locally accessible retail over longer, deal-oriented excursions during the holidays.
Within the superstore category, wholesale clubs and discount & dollar stores outperformed mass merchants. This performance underscores consumers’ continued shift toward value-driven retail during the holidays and highlights that “value” extends beyond low prices alone; wholesale clubs, with their compelling value propositions, are also seeing meaningful gains in the current consumer environment.
Categories most closely tied to self-gifting outperformed more traditional holiday segments during the 2025 season. Pet stores and services (+5.5% YoY) and home improvement retailers (+3.4% YoY) led the way, perhaps because purchases from these categories are typically positioned as practical investments in everyday life, ranging from caring for pets to improving and maintaining living spaces.
In contrast, home furnishings (-0.8%) lagged, as these purchases tend to be more decorative or occasion-driven and therefore more likely to be intended as gifts for others rather than immediate, utility-focused upgrades. Traffic to electronics stores also dipped slightly (-1.5%). Together, these trends underscore a consumer preference for spending that delivers direct, everyday value to themselves over more traditional, outward-facing holiday gifting.
Overall, location analytics for the 2025 holiday season suggest that consumers remained highly engaged despite ongoing economic pressure, but their spending behavior continued to fragment. Across apparel, superstores, and discretionary categories, shoppers consistently gravitated toward retailers that delivered clear value – whether through low prices, strong quality-to-price ratios, or products tied to personal utility and well-being. The outperformance of thrift, off-price, wholesale clubs, and self-gifting categories underscores a consumer mindset that is both pragmatic and selective, balancing budget consciousness with targeted willingness to spend.
Looking ahead to 2026, these patterns suggest that retailers should move beyond one-dimensional value messaging and instead sharpen their core propositions. Formats that clearly articulate why they are “worth the trip” – through pricing power, assortment differentiation, or alignment with everyday consumer priorities – will be best positioned to win share. As bifurcation persists, success will increasingly depend on understanding which consumer needs a brand serves best and doubling down on those strengths, rather than attempting to compete broadly across a squeezed and highly segmented retail landscape.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Dutch Bros has long been a powerhouse in the beverage space, building its business with rapid expansion and securing a loyal following. But to maintain its growth momentum, Dutch Bros will likely need to look beyond its beverage-first identity. By strategically expanding its breakfast offerings, the brand can attract a new segment of morning diners while driving incremental spend from its existing loyal customer base.
Dutch Bros is still on an aggressive growth trajectory, with plans to continue opening new locations at a brisk pace. The company passed the 1,000-unit mark this year and aims to reach over 2,000 locations nationwide by 2029. However, recent data suggests that while the brand's overall footprint is expanding, its established locations are facing the typical challenges of a maturing brand.
Throughout much of 2025, total visits to Dutch Bros increased rapidly year-over-year (YoY), driven largely by new store openings. And while same-store visits – which measure the performance of locations open for at least a year – were also generally positive, the growth was somewhat uneven. So although the brand’s expansion is still meeting robust demand, the gap between total growth and same-store performance may indicate that Dutch Bros is reaching a level of saturation in its initial markets.
To sustain growth, the brand is targeting the morning daypart by introducing breakfast offerings, reaching approximately 160 stores by the end of September 2025 and plans to deploy the menu across its store fleet in 2026. This strategy appears to be paying off: November saw same-store visits surge to their highest levels of the year. While this spike was likely supported by holiday menu launches and Black Friday, it also suggests the breakfast initiative is gaining traction and successfully revitalizing performance at established locations.
Why is Dutch Bros betting on breakfast? Historically, Dutch Bros has seen a lower percentage of its daily traffic occur during the morning daypart than its competitors. And when comparing the chain’s hourly visit distribution to the wider coffee category, it becomes clear why the shift toward a more robust breakfast offering is a logical move for Dutch Bros. While the coffee category as a whole sees 43.1% of its total daily visits between 5:00 and 11:00 AM, Dutch Bros captures only 32.6% during that same window, according to the chart below.
To bridge this gap, Dutch Bros is evolving its menu to include more substantial food options. Food currently accounts for only about 2% of Dutch Bros’ total sales, a figure it hopes to increase significantly with the help of hot breakfast items. As Dutch Bros continues to roll out the expanded food lineup to more locations in 2026, the brand is positioning itself to compete directly for the morning commuter who currently heads to a competitor for a meal-and-drink combo.
And to further bolster its morning performance, Dutch Bros could lean into "functional fuel" trends that complement its popular protein coffee and are likely to appeal in particular to younger consumers who prioritize health-conscious menu options.
Dutch Bros is at a pivotal point in its evolution. While new store openings continue to drive visits, the brand is now focusing on deepening its relationship with customers through the breakfast daypart. If the recent uptick in same-store visits is any indication, the shift from a "beverage-first" destination to a well-rounded morning stop could be exactly what the company needs to sustain its long-term momentum.
For more dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Coffee’s success in 2025 offers several key lessons for dining operators across categories:
1. Strategic expansion into under-penetrated regions can supercharge growth. YoY visits to coffee chains are growing fastest in areas of the Southeast and Sunbelt where the category still accounts for a relatively low share of dining visits.
2. Pairing craveable products with genuinely human, personalized service can build durable loyalty. Aroma Joe’s proves that when standout offerings are combined with warm, consistent personal touches, brands can create habit loops that drive repeat visits even in crowded markets.
3. Prioritizing hyper-efficient convenience models can unlock meaningful growth. Scooter’s Coffee demonstrates that fast, reliable, frictionless experiences can materially increase traffic while supporting rapid expansion.
4. Building recurring limited-time rituals can create predictable demand spikes and deepen engagement. From the annual Pumpkin Spice Latte launch to Jackpot Day, coffee chains show that ritualized promotions can “own the calendar,” generating predictable traffic spikes and deepening emotional engagement.
5. Using scarce, hype-driven offerings can generate high-impact moments that shift behavior. Starbucks’ Bearista drop illustrates how limited, buzzworthy merchandise or products can not only spike visits but also shift customer behavior, driving traffic outside typical dayparts.
6. Leveraging cultural collaborations can create excitement without relying on discounts. Dunkin’s Wicked partnership shows that tapping into moments in pop culture can deliver multi-day visit lifts comparable to major promotions – often without relying on giveaways.
Coffee has become one of the most resilient and inventive corners of the U.S. food and beverage industry. Even as consumers wrestle with higher prices and trim discretionary spending, they continue to show up for cold foam, caffeinated boosts, and treat-worthy daily indulgences.
Throughout 2025, coffee chains saw consistent year-over-year (YoY) quarterly visit growth, as brands from Starbucks to 7 Brew expanded their footprints. Crucially, per-location category-wide traffic also remained close to 2024 levels throughout most of the year before trending upward heading into the holiday season – showing that this expansion has not diluted demand at existing coffee shop locations.
What’s fueling coffee’s ongoing momentum? Which strategies are helping leading chains accelerate despite this year’s headwinds? And what can operators across dining categories learn from coffee’s success?
This white paper dives into the data to reveal the strategies behind coffee’s standout performance – and how they can help dining concepts across segments succeed in 2026.
Analyzing market-level (DMA) dining traffic data reveals that coffee chains are prioritizing growth in markets with lighter competition – and this formula is paying off.
In the graphic below, the top map shows the share of dining visits commanded by coffee in each DMA, while the bottom map highlights the year-over-year (YoY) change in visits to the coffee category. Perhaps unsurprisingly, markets where coffee already commands a high share of dining visits (specifically on the West Coast and in the Northeast) are seeing the softest year-over-year performance, while DMAs with lower coffee penetration are delivering the strongest visit growth.
In other words, traditional coffee markets such as Northwestern metros– where competition is high and incremental gains are harder to capture – are no longer the primary engines of category momentum. Instead, coffee visits are growing fastest across the Southeast, Sun Belt, and Texas – regions where branded coffee still represents a relatively small share of dining visits. Operators across dining segments can learn from coffee's approach and identify markets with low category penetration to lean into those whitespace opportunities.
But geography is only part of the story. And the coffee segment shows that a strong concept that delivers on fundamentals – great products and exceptional service – can thrive even in tougher coffee markets such as the northeast.
The experience of expanding Northeastern chain Aroma Joe’s shows how pairing craveable beverages with an unusually personal service model can drive visit growth even in relatively hard-to-break-into regions.
Aroma Joe’s, a rapidly-expanding coffee chain headquartered in Maine, with over 125 locations, has become something of a local obsession: Customers rave about the chain’s addictive signature beverages – as well as the feel-good atmosphere cultivated by its warm, friendly staff. And this combination of human touch and product quality creates a powerful habit loop: In October 2025, nearly one quarter of visitors to Aroma Joe’s stopped at the chain at least four times during the month – a much higher loyalty rate than that seen by other leading coffee brands.
The takeaway: Craveable products paired with exceptional service can create a scalable loyalty engine.
Another key differentiator for the coffee sector is convenience. Drive-thrus have become ubiquitous across the category, with many of the fastest-growing upstarts embracing drive-thru only models and legacy leaders also leaning more heavily into the format.
Scooter’s Coffee – named for its core promise to help customers “scoot” in and out quickly – exemplifies this advantage. In Q3 2025, the chain posted a 3.1% YoY increase in average visits per location, even as it continued to scale its footprint. And its customers averaged a dwell time of just 7.3 minutes – significantly lower than other leading coffee chains, including other drive-thru-forward peers.
By delivering consistently quick experiences without compromising quality, Scooter’s has emerged as a traffic leader in the coffee space – demonstrating the power of efficiency to drive demand.
No category has mastered the “event-ization” of the menu quite like coffee – and few brands own the category’s calendar as effectively as Starbucks. The annual return of the Pumpkin Spice Latte has become a cultural milestone that marks the unofficial start of fall for millions, driving double-digit visit spikes and shaping seasonal traffic patterns.
And the importance of the event only continues to grow. On August 26th, 2025, PSL day drove a 19.5% spike in traffic compared to the prior ten-week average – a higher relative spike than that seen in 2024 or 2023.
But this playbook isn’t reserved for mega-brands. 7 Brew’s monthly Jackpot Day, held on the 7th of each month, shows how recurring promotions can also build anticipation and deliver repeatable traffic lifts for up-and-coming concepts.
Beginning in August 2025, Jackpot Day shifted from a limited “Jackpot Hour” to an all-day activation. That month’s offer – two medium drinks for $8 plus a Kindness wristband – generated a 47.1% lift versus an average Thursday. And in subsequent months, giveaways ranging from tote bags to footballs kept the excitement going, sustaining elevated visits each time the 7th rolled around.
These rituals create emotional consistency: Customers know when to expect something special and plan around it. Dining chains beyond the coffee space can also create dependable spikes in traffic by implementing recurring, ritualized LTOs that create an emotional calendar and keep customers engaged.
Offering recurring LTOs is one way to keep customers consistently engaged. But one-time, limited-edition merch drops can create even bigger visit surges. Starbucks’ much-hyped “Bearista” launch this November is a prime example: Customers lined up nationwide for the chance to buy – not receive – an adorable, limited-edition, bear-shaped reusable cup. And despite its hefty $30 price tag, the merch drop drove a massive nationwide visit spike, making it the chain’s biggest sales day ever and fueling additional momentum leading into Red Cup Day.
And location data shows that this kind of hype-driven, scarce merchandise can shift not just visitor volume but daypart behavior. Visits surged as early as 4:00 AM as FOMO-driven customers showed up at the crack of dawn to secure a bear. And the shift toward early morning visits (though not quite as early) continued the following day as stores quickly ran out of stock.
Starbucks' Bearista frenzy suggests that scarcity isn’t just a retail tactic – it’s a powerful behavioral trigger that restaurants can harness as well. Limited-run items, exclusive merch drops, or time-bound specials can generate excitement, pull visits forward, and reshape daypart patterns in ways traditional promotions rarely do.
Cultural tie-ins add another accelerant. In November, Dunkin’ launched its Wicked collaboration alongside its holiday menu, generating a significant multi-day traffic spike – achieved, like Bearista, without giveaways. The event leaned on playful thematic branding, seasonal flavors, and limited-run items that tapped into Wicked fandom.
Dunkin's Wicked surge shows that when executed well, cultural relevance can also significantly move the needle. Other dining segments may also lean into thoughtful collabs to create outsized excitement and traffic lift – even without deep discounts or free offers.
The coffee sector’s 2025 performance offers a blueprint for dining success: Chains are expanding smartly into underpenetrated regions, successfully implementing both hyper-efficient and hyper-personal service models, using recurring LTOs to build seasonal and monthly rituals, and leveraging merch and pop culture partnerships to reshape demand.
Together, these strategies provide a practical playbook for dining brands to increase visit frequency, deepen customer commitment, and capture new growth opportunities in 2026 and beyond.
Five metros from across the United States stand out for consumer momentum going into 2026: Salt Lake City (UT), Reno (NV), Indianapolis (IN), Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (FL), and Raleigh-Durham (NC). All five metro areas saw their populations increase by more than the average U.S. metro between 2023 and 2024, and year-over-year (YoY) retail and dining traffic trends outpaced the nationwide average.
Utah is one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S. The state’s population has grown steadily for more than two decades with unemployment remaining consistently below the nationwide average, with one of the youngest workforces in the country. According to some analysts, the median household income in Utah, when adjusted for cost of living, is the highest in the nation.
All of this positions Salt Lake City – the state’s capital – as a particularly attractive market heading into 2026. Location analytics show year-over-year increases in foot traffic across many neighborhoods, from established retail hubs like Sugar House and Downtown SLC to the more mixed-use Central City and primarily residential areas such as The Avenues and East Bench. The city also serves as a gateway to a diverse mix of audiences, attracting younger residents and commuters as well as affluent families who come into the city to shop, dine, and enjoy local attractions.
Salt Lake City’s diversity in age and household composition as well as Utah's strong homeownership culture – even among younger cohorts – creates opportunities for retail and dining chains across categories. Home-forward concepts are particularly poised to outperform, as shown by recent location analytics. Traffic to furniture & home furnishing chains increased 7.4% YoY in the Salt Lake City DMA compared to a 2.5% increase nationwide, and grocery stores and home improvement retailers outperformed in the market as well. These trends point to a solid market for retailers tied to home life – from furniture and décor to everyday grocery needs –driven not only by steady population growth and household spending, but also by a local culture that places strong emphasis on family and the home.
While Salt Lake City continues to build on its strong foundation, another Western city is quietly gaining momentum. Reno, Nevada, which is often viewed as a regional gaming-town, is increasingly emerging as a dynamic travel destination in its own right.
In 2024 Washoe County (including the city of Reno) welcomed approximately 3.8 million visitors whose spending of about $3.4 billion generated a total economic impact of $5.2 billion. This growth signals a robust visitor-economy that supports roughly 43,800 jobs and generates over $420 million in state and local tax revenue.
What makes this particularly compelling is that while Las Vegas, Nevada is facing mounting pressures from increasing costs, the Reno-Tahoe region is showing stronger resilience thanks in part to a drive-market model and diversified appeal. Analyzing the traffic data shows that visits from non-residents, and non-employees to downtown Reno have increased YoY for the past three years. And though Reno may be thought of as a vacation spot for older Gen X and Baby Boomer vacationers, the data also indicates that Singles & Starters –"young singles starting out and some starter families living a city lifestyle" – make up an increasingly large share of Reno's visitor base.
This generational diversification carries important implications for both retail and real estate investment. As younger visitors drive up spending in food, entertainment, and shopping centers, the market is poised for renewed urban energy – fueling redevelopment across downtown corridors and mixed-use projects. With strategic public–private investments and an expanding visitor economy, Reno stands out as a market to watch in 2026, combining strong fundamentals with emerging demographic momentum.
The Midwest also contains several metro areas on the rise. Large-scale manufacturing projects like Intel’s $20 billion chip plants and Honda and LG Energy Solution’s EV battery facility are spurring housing and retail expansion around Columbus, Ohio. Kansas City, Missouri, is benefiting from logistics growth and projected tourism growth linked to its role as a FIFA World Cup 2026 host city. And Madison, Wisconsin, is seeing steady consumer growth is supported by its diverse tech and biotech economy.
But Indianapolis, Indiana tops the charts in terms of YoY overall retail visit growth between May and October 2025 (+4.3%, see first chart). And much of the consumer traffic in the Indianapolis DMA consists of suburban and rural households – precisely the segments that many retailers are now trying to woo.
Family-friendly retailers and dining chains are particularly well positioned to thrive in Indiana heading into 2026. Indianapolis has some of the best job prospects and most affordable home prices in the country – and its favorable salary to cost of living ratio likely allows many families to have leftover income left over for discretionary spending.
Recent data shows that a range of family-oriented brands – from Chili’s and Marshall’s to Kroger – have outperformed in Indianapolis over the past six months. The city’s growing middle-income population and its suburban, family-focused consumer base appear to be fueling stronger in-person spending, particularly at convenient, affordable, and community-oriented retail and dining destinations.
Moving east to North Carolina brings several additional growing metros into focus, including Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, and Charlotte. But Raleigh rises above the pack with its powerful combination of job growth, steady in-migration, and a well-balanced, diversified economy.
All this is leading to YoY increases in total traffic within the Raleigh-Durham, NC DMA, driven in part by major firms – including entrants in finance and life-sciences – continuing to expand operations in the area. The city of Raleigh also has relatively low median age and relatively high median household income. This combination of robust job creation, wage gains, and a growing pool of young, high-spending residents positions Raleigh as one of the most dynamic consumer markets in the Southeast heading into 2026.
Raleigh's consumer growth potential is particularly stark when looking at performance of major mixed-use developments across the region. Foot traffic at leading projects such as Smoky Hollow, the Main District at North Hills Street, and Fenton in Cary has climbed sharply.
The data also shows that these destinations attract a disproportionately high share of wealthy singles and one-person households – a demographic with strong discretionary spending power. Together, these trends point to a deepening base of urban, high-income consumers fueling growth in dining, retail, and entertainment – making Raleigh one of the country's most dynamic and opportunity-rich metro areas heading into 2026.
In the Southeast, Tampa is one of the nation’s standout metro areas heading into 2026. Strong fundamentals – such as no state income tax and expanding employment in sectors like technology, healthcare, and logistics – have attracted a significant influx of Gen Z and millennial residents. And although in-migration is beginning to slow somewhat, the city's expanding economy and youthful talent base continue to fuel growth across housing, retail, and dining.
And as more companies require employees to spend additional days in the office, YoY commuter traffic has increased across Tampa’s major cities. Leisure visits from non-residents are also on the rise, suggesting that retailers and dining chains seeking to capture this expanding market could benefit from growing their presence throughout the Tampa metro area.
Rising traffic across Tampa’s major urban areas appears to be translating into stronger dining activity as well. Over the past six months, average YoY visits to Tampa area full-service restaurants, coffee shops, and fast-casual chains have all exceeded the national average, which may reflect a broader acceleration in both local workforce and leisure-visitor demand.
1. Retail is deeply divided. Visits to value and luxury apparel segments grew YoY in 2025 while traffic to mid-tier retailers flagged.
2. Upscale dining momentum reflects similar bifurcation. More resilient, affluent consumers are bolstering fine-dining traffic.
3. Authenticity is key. Brands successfully executing on a clear sense of purpose – from community-driven grocers to bookstores – are driving consistent visit growth.
4. Online and offline retail are converging into a seamless ecosystem. As consumers seek online value and in-person convenience, AI fulfillment, dark stores, and local pickup are accelerating.
5. Digitally native brands expanding into physical retail are redefining omnichannel. These chains provide a blueprint for merging digital efficiency with personalized in-store experiences.
6. Traditionally urban brands are shifting to suburbia to capture new audiences. With consumers rooted in hybrid lifestyles and growing suburban demand, chains that adapt their footprints drive fresh traffic.
7. Expansion into college markets and celebrity pop-ups are helping retailers and malls connect with younger consumers. Brands that grew their footprints in college towns or on campuses increased their Gen Z traffic, as did malls that hosted celebrity or influencer activations.
Retail and dining faced another complex year in 2025. Persistent economic headwinds and uncertainty surrounding tariffs intensified consumers’ focus on value, even as affluent shoppers continued to indulge in luxury brands and upscale dining experiences.
Yet the year also revealed behavioral shifts that extended beyond price sensitivity. Shoppers increasingly prioritized brands that convey authenticity and a clear sense of purpose – those that deliver value not only through price, but through omnichannel convenience, product quality, and brand ethos.
For their part, retailers and malls continued to evolve, adopting strategies to capture both the expanding suburban market and a rising generation of younger consumers emerging as a defining force in retail.
How have these trends evolved, and how will they shape the retail landscape in 2026? We dove into the data to find out.
The first three quarters of 2025 underscored a widening divide in the apparel sector, with strength at both ends of the price and income spectrums.
Off-price retailers and thrift stores, which draw shoppers from lower- and middle-income trade areas, gained significant ground – reflecting consumers’ ongoing search for value and treasure-hunt experiences that feel both economical and rewarding. At the same time, luxury maintained modest growth, showing that high-income shoppers remain resilient and willing to spend on premium experiences. Meanwhile, traditional apparel and mid-tier department stores continued to see visit declines, signaling further pressure on the retail middle. Retailers such as Target and Kohl’s, traditional staples of this middle segment, are contending with the challenge of defining their identity to consumers in a market increasingly split between value and luxury.
Looking ahead to 2026, mid-tier retailers will need to navigate a complex and polarized landscape. Without the clear positioning enjoyed by value and luxury players, success will require sharper differentiation and disciplined execution. But though the middle remains a tough place to compete, it still holds potential: Brands that can redefine relevance – something many of these same chains achieved just a few years ago – stand to capture consumers with spending power.
A similar bifurcation dynamic is also unfolding in the dining sector.
Upscale full-service restaurants (FSRs) are outperforming their casual dining counterparts, as higher-income consumers – and those dining out for special occasions – seek elevated experiences at fine-dining chains.
At the same time, more cost-conscious diners are trading down from casual dining FSRs to fast-casual chains, which continue to outperform the casual dining segment. Fast-casual brands are also benefiting from trading up within the limited-service segment, as consumers who choose to eat out – rather than eat at home or grab a lower-cost prepared meal at a c-store or grocery – opt for more experiences that feel more premium yet remain accessible.
Across both retail and dining, bifurcation doesn’t tell the whole story. Even as spending concentrates at the high and low ends of the market, a growing number of brands are succeeding by delivering an experience that feels intentional, distinctive, and true to their identity. These concepts share a clear raison d’être – a sense of purpose that resonates with consumers – as well as successful execution. The data shows that brands providing this kind of “on-point” experience are driving consistent visit growth in 2025, signaling that authenticity may be important retail currency in 2026.
Trader Joe’s sustained momentum reflects its ability to make shopping feel like discovery. The chain’s locally-inspired assortments, roughly 80% private-label mix, and steady rotation of seasonal products keep visits fresh and engagement high.
Sprouts, for its part, continues to benefit from a sharpened identity centered on freshness, sustainability, and health. Its smaller-format stores, curated product mix, and messaging around healthy living have helped it build a loyal base of wellness‐oriented shoppers.
Meanwhile, Barnes & Noble’s transformation offers a compelling case study in the power of experience. Its strategy of empowering local managers to curate store selections and host community events has turned stores into cultural touchpoints – driving increased visits and dwell times.
All three brands derive their strength from their clarity of purpose – illustrating how authenticity and intentionality are becoming meaningful factors shaping consumer engagement.
Authenticity isn’t limited to national names. Regional players such as H-E-B and In-N-Out Burger demonstrate how deeply ingrained local identity can translate into sustained growth.
H-E-B’s community-driven ethos, local sourcing, and operational excellence have built trust across Texas markets, helping it remain one of the country’s most beloved grocery chains, with high rates of shoppers visiting multiple times a month. And in the quick-service category, California-native In-N-Out Burger stands out for its quality, nostalgia, and mystique, as the chain continues to attract visitation trends that exceed national QSR benchmarks.
These brands demonstrate that authenticity can have a local element. Their success reflects not just product strength or efficiency, but a deeper connection to the communities they serve.
While regional and experience-driven brands continue to build deep consumer connections, the broader retail landscape is also being reshaped by operational innovation. As technology and infrastructure improve, retailers are finding new ways to merge digital efficiency with convenient physical touchpoints.
E-commerce growth and in-store activity are increasingly interconnected. Visits to ecommerce distribution centers* climbed steadily between October 2021 and September 2025, while the share of short, under-10-minute trips to big-box chains Target, Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club also increased. Together, these patterns suggest that while online shopping continues to expand, consumers remain highly engaged with physical locations through buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) and same-day fulfillment channels – combining the value of online deals with the convenience of quick, local pickup.
This trend also reflects ongoing advancements in AI-driven fulfillment and Walmart’s testing of dark stores – retail spaces converted into local fulfillment hubs that accelerate delivery and enable quick customer pickup. These innovations are shortening fulfillment windows while optimizing store networks for hybrid demand.
As retailers continue to blur the boundaries between digital and physical commerce in 2026, expect them to become increasingly complementary parts of a single, omnichannel ecosystem.
*The Placer.ai E-commerce Distribution Center Index measures foot traffic across more than 400 distribution centers nationwide, including facilities operated by leading retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target. Designed as a barometer for U.S. e-commerce activity, the index captures two key audiences: employees, estimated through dwell-time patterns, and visitors, who often represent logistics partners delivering raw materials, moving in-process goods, or collecting finished products.
The resurgence of digitally native brands embracing physical retail underscores how online and offline strategies are converging into an integrated model, combining digital efficiency with the benefits of a physical presence.
Framebridge, a DTC custom framing brand, offers a clear example of this trend. As the brand has expanded its footprint, the average number of monthly visits to each of its locations rose sharply throughout 2025.
Framebridge’s success lies in its well-executed omnichannel model. Customers can place orders online or in store, with the option to ship directly to their homes or pick up in person.
But for Framebridge, physical locations aren’t just about convenience. Art and memories are often one of a kind, so having knowledgeable staff in store and the opportunity to engage with materials firsthand transforms a transaction into a personalized, consultative experience.
Framebridge exemplifies how digitally native brands are merging the ease of online shopping with physical spaces that provide a personal touch. And more digitally native brands, like Gymshark, are looking to bring their business offline with the hope of adding value for consumers.
As retailers advance their omnichannel strategies, another enduring shift is reshaping the retail map post-pandemic – the continued rise of suburban traffic. Brands that entered the pandemic with strong suburban footprints were among the first to benefit as in-person activity rebounded, while urban-focused chains that expanded outward have met migrating consumers and captured new audiences anchored in hybrid lifestyles and local shopping routines.
Large-format and drive-thru focused brands like Costco, Cava, and Dutch Bros. entered the pandemic era from a position of strength as they are traditionally situated in suburban and exurban areas. As consumers spent more time close to home and away from urban centers, these chains captured heightened local demand and saw visits rebound rapidly once in-person shopping resumed.
And as the pandemic reshaped consumer traffic patterns, brands like Shake Shack and Chipotle quickly recognized emerging opportunities in suburban markets and adjusted their strategies to capture this shifting demand. For Shake Shack – a brand once defined by its urban storefronts – the shift toward suburban drive-thrus and stand-alone locations represented a significant pivot. Chipotle followed a similar path, accelerating its suburban expansion through the rollout of “Chipotlane” drive-thru lanes.
Arriving somewhat later to the suburban landscape, sweetgreen, once synonymous with its urban footprint, opened its first drive-thru in 2022, and by 2024 had made suburban markets a core pillar of its growth strategy.
These real estate moves positioned all three brands to capture demand from remote and hybrid workers, helping sustain visit growth well above pre-pandemic baselines.
As suburban demand continues to grow, the suburbs will likely remain a critical growth frontier for many brands in the year ahead.
Investment in suburban markets underscores how changing market conditions and strategy adaptation can allow brands to meet consumers where they are. And a parallel trend is unfolding in college towns and youth-dense trade areas, where brands are channeling investment to capture rising Gen Z spending power.
Expansion in college-anchored markets, paired with celebrity and influencer-driven pop-ups, is helping retailers build cultural relevance and increase engagement with this emerging consumer base.
The graph below underscores how targeted expansion into college-anchored markets can meaningfully shift audience composition. Over the last several years, many brands have expanded their near-campus footprints – and in turn, attracted a higher share of the Spatial.ai:PersonaLive “Young Urban Singles” segment, one highly aligned with Gen Z consumers.
CAVA’s rapid unit growth, including openings near major universities and in college towns, helped the brand increase its share of “Young Urban Singles” within its captured trade areas between October 2018-September 2019 and October 2024-September 2025. Meanwhile, Panda Express and Raising Cane's, which already had relatively large shares of the segment six years ago, have also invested in college-adjacent locations, lifting their “Young Urban Singles” audience share.
Even legacy mass retailer Target benefited from small-format and large store expansions near universities – growing its captured market share of “Young Urban Singles”.
These shifts suggest that college towns will continue to be strategic growth markets, including for luxury brands like Hermès. By making inroads in college towns and with Gen Z shoppers, brands can strengthen loyalty early and build durable market share that remains as these young adults move on from campus life.
As Gen Z’s influence expands beyond campus borders, retail engagement is increasingly driven by cultural moments that resonate with this cohort. And malls are finding that temporary pop-ups including influencer collaborations and celebrity-led activations can attract these young consumers.
At The Grove, the Pandora pop-up with brand ambassador girl-group Katseye in October 2024 led to a modest but significant increase in the Gen Z-dominant “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” segments within the mall’s captured trade area during the first week of the activation – compared to the average for the last twelve months.
Similarly, at Westfield Century City, the Taylor Swift x TikTok activation from October 3rd-9th, 2025 – which allowed fans to immerse themselves in the sets from the viral “The Fate of Ophelia” music video boosted the shares of “Young Urban Singles” and Young Professionals”, underscoring the star power of everything Taylor Swift.
And at American Dream, the pattern extended beyond younger audiences. On September 5th and 6th, 2025, Ninja Kidz attended the grand opening of their Action Park while Salish Matters made an appearance at the mall on September 6th for her skincare pop-up – which drew such large crowds that it had to be shut down. During these two event days, the mall’s shares of both “Young Professionals” and “Ultra-Wealthy Families” increased substantially, highlighting that pop-up events can draw young and affluent family audiences.
Together, these examples reinforce that, in 2026, the integration of short-term pop-ups will continue to be a strategy for malls and individual brands to gain relevance for key demographic segments.
2025 reinforced that retail remains as dynamic as ever. Value continues to anchor decisions, but consumers are redefining what value means – blending price sensitivity with expectations for authenticity. And in the current retail landscape, online and physical retail are growing more interconnected as consumers demand convenience and experience.
In 2026, adaptability will be retailers’ greatest competitive edge. The next era of retail will belong to brands that can continue to refine their operating strategy – while staying true to a clear brand identity.
