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With the rise of hybrid and remote work, we’ve observed a notable shift in everyday consumer behaviors, particularly around fitness, shopping, running errands, and grabbing takeout. Without the need to commute on certain days, it’s easier for consumers to squeeze in a workout or make a quick trip to a store. Local outdoor shopping centers have become prime beneficiaries of this new “pop-in, pop-out” behavior. Here, we explore some of the brands poised to thrive in this evolving landscape.
At the start of this year, we predicted that the beauty category boom we witnessed last year would persist, with wellness and self-care becoming integral parts of that definition. For many, self-care includes a good workout, whether low-impact or high-intensity. We've previously highlighted fitness trends, with brands like Club Pilates and Orangetheory Fitness continuing to demonstrate year-over-year growth. A perfect post-workout activity might include a massage or chiropractic session to ease sore muscles or restore alignment—services that have driven increased traffic for brands like Massage Envy and Joint Chiropractic. Another standout is Madison Reed, which offers "salon results without salon cost or time" and continues to expand its footprint.
The next group of brands stands out for their ubiquity—you’re likely to find one or more of these stores in any local outdoor shopping center. UPS is indispensable for shipping and returning items, serving as a go-to for everyday logistics. Meanwhile, telecommunications and internet service providers like AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Xfinity maintain a steady customer base, driven by the regular upgrade cycle for cell phones and service plans.
Another home improvement and furnishings replacement cycle may be upon us. Pandemic-driven nesting behaviors accelerated demand in previous years, but now, many consumers are cautiously approaching this phase. Instead of investing in big-ticket items like dining or living room furniture, there’s growing enthusiasm for budget-friendly updates, such as applying a fresh coat of paint. Sherwin-Williams stands out as a key player, experiencing increased foot traffic. This rise in paint store visits could signal a positive trend for future investments in home improvement, redecorating, and refurnishing.
Next, we have some tasty additions perfect for local outdoor shopping centers. Americans’ love affair with chicken shows no signs of slowing down. Dave’s Hot Chicken has developed a cult following for its juicy, flavorful chicken, while Raising Cane’s draws loyal fans for its irresistible tenders and signature sauce. Bb.q Chicken offers a unique twist, boasting over a dozen wing flavors, including Caribbean Spice, Hot Mala, and Cheesling cheese dust.
With Black Friday just a week away, it's the perfect time to reflect on the state of retail and what lies ahead over the next 28 days as consumers prepare for holiday gatherings, celebrations, and gift-giving. The retail industry in 2024 has been anything but consistent—some categories continue to thrive, others have struggled, and a few are clawing their way back to prominence.
This year’s holiday season is likely to follow a similar pattern, but the key differentiator is time. As we highlighted in our TL;DR newsletter on LinkedIn this week, the 2024 holiday shopping period has five fewer days compared to last year, reminiscent of the 2019 vs. 2018 holiday timeline. Holiday shopping kicked off earlier this year, with department stores seeing increased activity in October. With a condensed holiday window, it’s now up to retailers to drive more frequent visits and encourage consumers to linger longer in their stores.
Analyzing daily visits during last year’s holiday season, there were five weekends compared to four this year. Across key holiday gifting retail categories in 2023, those five weekends (Saturday and Sunday combined) accounted for 39% of total holiday season visits, defined as Thanksgiving Day through Christmas Eve. Individually, each weekend contributed between 7% and 9% of total sector visitation, with the last two weekends each capturing 9%. In 2024, each weekend would need to account for approximately 10% of total holiday season visits to match last year’s pace.
One advantage of having fewer weekends between Thanksgiving and Christmas is the reduction in lull periods, which are traditionally challenging for retailers trying to attract visitors. This year, two of the four weekends include Black Friday weekend and Super Saturday. In 2023, Black Friday alone accounted for 7% of total holiday visitation across the analyzed sectors, meaning a strong Black Friday could help offset the impact of having fewer weekends. By sector, Black Friday holds particular importance for department stores and consumer electronics retailers, as they typically see a higher share of visits on that day compared to other categories.
Another way to offset the five fewer shopping days? Increasing the time consumers spend in stores. In 2023, dwell times during Black Friday weekend (Thursday–Sunday) were, on average, three minutes longer than the full-year average across the analyzed sectors. Department stores had the largest gap, with visitors staying six minutes longer than average on Black Friday, followed by consumer electronics, superstores, and beauty retailers. These sectors are among the most popular for holiday shoppers during Black Friday weekend, making it encouraging that visitors stayed longer while seeking holiday deals.
A final advantage for physical retail is that fewer shopping days mean a shorter delivery window for e-commerce. With less time to shop, the holidays could sneak up on consumers, potentially driving more visitors into stores this year. While this is purely speculative, our enthusiasm for physical retail at Placer compels us to make at least one bold prediction!
The past several years have been a boom period for affordable indulgences – with consumers tightening their purse strings and finding inexpensive ways to treat themselves. Against this backdrop, discount specialty retailers Five Below and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet have been growing their footprints – and their audiences. But have the two chains reached their growth ceilings? How did they fare in Q3 2024 – and what can they expect this holiday season?
We dove into the data to find out.
Five Below opened a record 205 new stores last year, leaning into growing consumer demand for low-cost toys, decor, and other indulgences. And though the chain announced plans to moderate fleet growth following a below-target Q2 2024, visit data shows that overall, the chain remains well-positioned for continued success. In Q3 2024, Five Below’s growing footprint fueled a 13.8% chain-wide year-over-year (YoY) visit boost. Though the average number of visits to each individual Five Below location remained slightly below 2023 levels, the chain’s visit-per-location gap narrowed to 1.6% from 4.3% in Q2. And in some key growth markets, Five Below saw significant increases in both YoY visits and visits per location: California, one of Five Below’s biggest regional markets and the focus of a major expansion push this year, saw visits per location grow 4.4% amidst a 21.6% overall visit increase.
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet is another value-focused specialty retailer that has benefited from consumer trading down in recent years. And foot traffic data highlights the success of Ollie’s ongoing expansion: In Q3 2024, foot traffic to Ollie’s increased 7.5% YoY, while the average number of visits to each Ollie’s location also increased slightly by 0.9%. Though this represents a smaller visit-per-location increase than that seen in Q2, Ollie’s ability to maintain strong per-location visit levels while increasing its store count shows that the chain’s offerings are still meeting robust demand. And Ollie’s shows no sign of slowing down – snapping up former Big Lots store leases and plotting westward expansion.
Five Below and Ollie’s are both popular holiday shopping destinations. But what can the two retailers expect this year?
Visit data shows that Five Below and Ollies experience holiday milestones somewhat differently. Ollie’s, with its broad selection of deeply discounted high-ticket items, sees a slightly bigger Black Friday spike than Five Below: On November 24th, 2023, visits to Ollie’s surged by 222.9% compared to a 2023 daily average, higher than Five Below’s none-too-shabby 204.1%.
Meanwhile, the run-up to Christmas is is Five Below’s time to shine – with visits slowly increasing throughout December before reaching a crescendo on Super Saturday. In 2023, Five Below’s busiest day of the year was December 23rd, as customers flocked to the chain to pick up stocking stuffers, festive decor, and other inexpensive holiday items. Ollie’s, on the other hand, saw a more moderate 171.7% Super Saturday visit increase. As Five Below continues to expand its pricier “Five Beyond” offerings, Black Friday may take on greater importance for the retailer in coming years.
But while Ollie’s visit peaks were more subdued than those of Five Below throughout most of the holiday season, the chain’s treasure hunt vibe consistently drew longer visitor dwell times. On Black Friday last year, 26.5% of visitors to Ollie’s remained in-store for more than 45 minutes, compared to just 18.3% at Five Below. And despite Ollie’s significantly smaller Super Saturday crowds, customers spent substantially more time browsing its aisles to snag the perfect bargain find.
Five Below and Ollie’s both appear poised to enjoy a busy holiday season. Will the retailers deliver?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
The Kroger Co. has come a long way from its humble beginnings as a single grocery store in downtown Cincinnati, Ohio, in 1883. Today, the brand operates over 2,700 stores under its numerous grocery store banners.
We analyzed the visitation patterns at some of Kroger’s largest chains to see how these brands have fared over the past few months, and looked at what last year’s visit data can tell us about the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday.
The Kroger Co.’s various grocery banners vary in size and scale, with its eponymous banner Kroger – more than 1200 stores across much of the midwest and south – attracting the largest visit share relative to the company’s full grocery portfolio. Kroger’s other major regional chains, including Harris Teeter (mid and south atlantic states); Ralphs (California), King Soopers (primarily Colorado), Food 4 Less (California, Illinois, and Indiana), Smith’s (Mountain states), Fry’s (Arizona), and Fred Meyer (Pacific northwest), lend the company considerable presence nationwide.
On the whole, visits to the analyzed Kroger chains remained fairly close to 2023’s levels, with visits to Kroger, Fred Meyer, Harris Teeter, Smith’s, and Fry’s sustaining minor YoY visit gaps. No-frills value chain Food 4 Less enjoyed 2.7% YoY visit growth in Q3, likely buoyed by the same trading down behaviors that have propelled growth at other low-cost supermarkets this year. Ralphs and King Soopers also saw YoY visit growth, perhaps aided by California and Colorado’s relatively high median household incomes (HHIs) – $94.1K and $89.1K, respectively, according to data from STI: PopStats, compared to the nationwide baseline of $76.1K.
Kroger’s extensive reach allows it to appeal to a wide range of grocery shoppers. The company operates both discount grocery chains, such as Food 4 Less, more upscale ones like Harris Teeter, and everything in between.
Diving into the share of visits lasting 30 minutes or longer at individual Kroger banners reveals substantial variation, with Fred Meyer and Food 4 Less receiving the highest shares of long visits among the analyzed chains. In Q3 2024, 30.3% of Fred Meyer visits and 30.7% of Food 4 Less visits lasted over 30 minutes – a stark contrast to Ralphs (20.9%), Harris Teeter (22.6%) and King Soopers (23.5%).
This variance in dwell times may reflect the differing offerings of each chain. Hypermarket Fred Meyer provides a wide range of services beyond groceries – including pharmacies, department stores, and jewelry offerings – which could encourage shoppers to spend more time exploring. And Food 4 Less falls squarely into the discount grocery segment, one that often sees customers spending more time in-store searching for the best deals.
While not (yet!) an official holiday, Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – is one of the most important days of the year for grocers as shoppers flock to stores to pick up last-minute items for their upcoming feasts.
And while Thanksgiving is still over a week away, analyzing trends from previous years can help grocers prepare for the coming frenzy. On November 22nd, 2023 – the day before Thanksgiving – visits across all analyzed Kroger chains shot up between 55.3% and 92.6% compared to the daily visit average for 2023. And visitors at each of the chains stayed longer in-store than they typically did during the rest of the year.
With visits to Kroger’s major banners either nearly on par with or ahead of last year’s levels, the company appears well-positioned to enjoy another year of strong Turkey Wednesday visits.
If previous years are any indication, Kroger’s grocery banners should be preparing for a surge in Thanksgiving shopping. Will visits outpace those of last year?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven grocery insights.
With the year almost over, we dove into the visitation data for off-price leaders to see how the TJX chains, Burlington, and Ross Dress for Less are positioned ahead of the holidays.
The off-price segment continued to outperform the wider apparel category in recent months as consumers continued favoring budget-friendly retail outlets. Visits to TJX-owned T.J. Maxx and Marshalls as well as to Burlington remained elevated, with the three chains seeing YoY growth of 5.1%, 5.5%, and 6.4% in Q3 2024. And while Ross foot traffic declined slightly relative to 2023 in July, September, and October, the chain’s YoY visit gap remained significantly smaller than that of the wider apparel category.
And even as Ross lags slightly behind the rest of the off-price space, the chain leads the segment in one metric – the share of returning visitors every month. In Q3 2024, over half of Ross’ monthly visits came from visitors who visited the chain at least twice in the month, compared with 41.9% - 47.6% of visits from returning visitors for the other three off-price leaders.
This data indicates that Ross is already extremely successful at cultivating a loyal clientele that regularly visits the company’s stores – and adding new shoppers to its circle of dedicated customers could drive further YoY visit growth going forward.
Expansion has been a major driver of off-price growth in recent years. Since 2019, the four off-price chains analyzed have all greatly increased their brick-and-mortar footprints, leading to visit surges nationwide.
And impressively, T.J.Maxx, Marshalls, Burlington, and Ross have all managed to expand their physical reach dramatically without straying from their core audience. Diving into the four chains’ trade area demographics in Q3 2019 and Q3 2024 reveals that, even as the retailers’ store fleet configurations evolved, their trade area demographics remained strikingly consistent.
Since 2019, the share of large households in the retailers’ trade areas has remained remarkably steady – though all four brands have seen a slight increase in the share of 4+ person households. The trade areas’ median household incomes (HHIs) did shift slightly as the chains expanded – falling for T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, and, to a lesser extent, Ross, while increasing somewhat for Burlington – but the change from 2019 has been minimal.
It seems, then, that these four off-price leaders have successfully grown their reach over the past five years while maintaining a strong connection with their core customer base, positioning them for continued sustained success in the competitive retail landscape.
As the holiday season approaches, the off-price retail sector remains resilient. The year-over-year growth and high loyalty rates seen by category leaders along with their success at expanding without alienating their core audiences positions these chains to remain a formidable force within the wider retail landscape.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
The all-important fourth quarter of the year is underway, and leading beauty chains like Ulta Beauty and Sally Beauty Supply are gearing up for an exciting holiday shopping season. We dove into the data to see how the two chains have performed in recent months – and what they can expect in this year’s Q4 retail milestones.
In Q3 2024 (July - September), quarterly visits to Ulta and Sally Beauty were essentially on par with last year’s levels. Ulta saw a minor year-over-year (YoY) uptick of 1.2%, while Sally Beauty maintained a slight visit gap.
Diving into monthly visit trends, ever-expanding Ulta experienced positive YoY foot traffic growth throughout the summer – especially in August, when an additional Saturday provided vacationers and back-to-school shoppers with extra weekend browsing time. And though visits to the chain dipped in September, they quickly bounced back again, with October seeing a 4.5% YoY visit boost likely bolstered by Halloween offerings and seasonal sales.
Sally Beauty, for its part, has been closing locations as part of a store optimization plan implemented largely in 2023. Viewed against this backdrop, the chain’s modest monthly visit gaps – which narrowed to just 0.2% in October 2024 – are particularly impressive. And Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. has remained nimble on its feet, testing new concepts like Happy Beauty Co., a new store format with cosmetics and other self-care products priced under $10.
For both chains, their October showing signals that eager customers are gearing up for a busy Q4.
But how do Ulta and Sally Beauty experience the holiday season? Which retail milestones resonate most strongly with their customers – and where do they see the most impressive holiday visit boosts?
Ulta Beauty leans heavily into Black Friday each year with early deals that culminate in a shopping bonanza on the day after Thanksgiving – and in 2023, the milestone was the chain’s busiest day of the year. On November 24th, 2023, visits to Ulta were up 270.6% compared to a 2023 daily average. The second-busiest day of the year for Ulta was Super Saturday (December 23rd, 2023), which saw a 219.0% visit bump.
Still, looking at major Ulta markets throughout the country reveals significant regional variation in holiday milestone visitation patterns. Like many other retailers, Ulta experiences bigger Black Friday visit bumps in midwestern metro areas like Chicago, and much smaller ones in California hubs like Los Angeles. And though Black Friday is more important for the chain than Super Saturday on a national level, several CBSAs – including Dallas, New York, and Los Angeles – saw bigger boosts on Super Saturday than on Black Friday.
Sally Beauty – with its more specialized focus on hair care products – sees smaller holiday visit bumps than Ulta. But the chain’s holiday deals do draw crowds. December 23rd was Sally Beauty’s busiest day last year, with visits up 86.2% nationwide and significantly elevated throughout the chain’s major markets. And though Black Friday is much less significant for the retailer – in 2023, it was only Sally Beauty’s 11th busiest day of the year – the chain’s Black Friday deals drove a 55.4% visit bump.
And visits aren’t the only thing that increase at Ulta and Sally Beauty during the holidays. Looking at driving distances to the two chains shows that on Q4 milestones – and especially Black Friday – people travel farther to shop the sales. On Black Friday 2023, and to a lesser extent Super Saturday, both retailers saw significant jumps in the share of visitors traveling more than 10 or 30 miles to visit their brick-and-mortar locations.
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Affordable luxuries like cosmetics and hair care products make the perfect stocking stuffers for consumers still concerned about high prices. And if last year’s holiday trends are any indication, Ulta and Sally Beauty appear poised to enjoy a very festive holiday season indeed.
Visit Placer.ai for more data-driven retail insights.
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1) Value Wins in 2025: Discount & Dollar Stores and Off-Price Apparel are outperforming as consumers prioritize value and the “treasure-hunt” experience.
2) Small Splurges Over Big Projects: Clothing and Home Furnishing traffic remains strong as shoppers favor accessible wardrobe updates and decor refreshes instead of major renovations.
3) Big-Ticket Weakness: Electronics and Home Improvement visits continue to lag, reflecting a continued deferment of larger purchases.
4) Bifurcation in Apparel: Visits to off-price and luxury segments are growing, while general apparel, athleisure, and department stores face ongoing pressures from consumer trade-downs.
5) Income Dynamics Shape Apparel: Higher-income shoppers sustain luxury and athleisure, while off-price is driving traffic from more lower-income consumers.
6) Beauty Normalizes but Stays Relevant: After a pandemic-driven surge, YoY declines likely indicate that beauty visits are stabilizing; shorter trips are giving way to longer visits as retailers deploy new tech and immersive experiences.
Economic headwinds, including tariffs and higher everyday costs, are limiting discretionary budgets and prompting consumers to make more selective choices about where they spend. But despite these pressures, foot traffic to several discretionary retail categories continues to thrive year-over-year (YoY).
Of the discretionary categories analyzed, fitness and apparel had the strongest year-over-year traffic trends – likely thanks to consumers finding perceived value in these segments.
Fitness and apparel (boosted by off-price) appeal to value-driven, experience seeking consumers – fitness thanks to its membership model of unlimited visits for an often low fee, and off-price with its discount prices and treasure-hunt dynamic. Both categories may also be riding a cultural wave tied to the growing use of GLP-1s, as more consumers pursue fitness goals and refresh their wardrobes to match changing lifestyles and sizes.
Big-ticket categories, including electronics, also faced significant challenges, as tighter consumer budgets hamper growth in the space. Traffic to home improvement retailers also generally declined, as lagging home sales and consumers putting off costly renovations likely contributed to the softness in the space.
But home furnishing visits pulled ahead in July and August 2025 – benefitting from strong performances at discount chains such as HomeGoods – suggesting that consumers are directing their home-oriented spending towards more accessible decor.
The beauty sector – typically a resilient "affordable luxury" category – also experienced declines in recent months. The slowdown can be partially attributed to stabilization following several years of intense growth, but it may also mean that consumers are simplifying their beauty routines or shifting their beauty buying online.
> Traffic to fitness and apparel chains – led by off-price – continued to grow YoY in 2025, as value and experiences continue to draw consumers.
> Consumers are shopping for accessible home decor upgrades to refresh their space rather than undertaking major renovations.
> Shoppers are holding off on big-ticket purchases, leading to YoY declines in the electronics and home improvement categories.
> Beauty has experienced softening traffic trends as the sector stabilizes following its recent years of hypergrowth as shoppers simplify routines and shift some of their spending online.
After two years of visit declines, the Home Furnishings category rebounded in 2025, with visits up 4.9% YoY between January and August. By contrast, Home Improvement continued its multi-year downward trend, though the pace of decline appears to have slowed.
So what’s fueling Home Furnishings’ resurgence while Home Improvement visits remain soft? Probably a combination of factors, including a more affluent shopper base and a product mix that includes a variety of lower-ticket items.
On the audience side, this category draws a much larger share of visits from suburban and urban areas, with a median household income well above that of home improvement shoppers. The differences are especially pronounced when analyzing the audience in their captured markets – indicating that the gap stems not just from store locations, but from meaningful differences in the types of consumers each category attracts.
Home improvement's larger share of rural visits is not accidental – home improvement leaders have been intentionally expanding into smaller markets for a while. But while betting on rural markets is likely to pay off down the line, home improvement may continue to face headwinds in the near future as its rural shopper base grapples with fewer discretionary dollars.
On the merchandise side, home improvement chains cater to larger renovations and higher-cost projects – and have likely been impacted by the slowdown in larger-ticket purchases which is also impacting the electronics space. Meanwhile, home furnishing chains carry a large assortment of lower-ticket items, including home decor, accessories, and tableware.
Consumers are still spending more time at home now than they were pre-COVID, and investing in comfortable living spaces is more important than ever. And although many high-income consumers are also tightening their belts, upgrading tableware or even a piece of furniture is still much cheaper than undertaking a renovation – which could explain the differences in traffic trends.
Traditional apparel, mid-tier department stores, and activewear chains all experienced similar levels of YoY traffic declines in 2025 YTD, as shown in the graph above. But analyzing traffic data from 2021 shows that each segment's dip is part of a trajectory unique to that segment.
Traffic to mid-tier department stores has been trending downward since 2021, a shift tied not only to macroeconomic headwinds but also to structural changes in the sector. The pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption, hitting department stores particularly hard as consumers seeking one-stop shopping and broad assortments increasingly turned to the convenience of online channels.
Traffic to traditional apparel chains has also not fully recovered from the pandemic, but the segment did consistently outperform mid-tier department stores and luxury retailers between 2021 and 2024. But in H1 2025, the dynamic with luxury shifted, so that traffic trends at luxury apparel retailers are now stronger than at traditional apparel both YoY and compared to Q1 2019. This highlights the current bifurcation of consumer spending also in the apparel space, as luxury and off-price segments outperform mid-market chains.
In contrast, the activewear & athleisure category continues to outperform its pre-pandemic baseline, despite experiencing a slight YoY softening in 2025 as consumers tighten their budgets. The category has capitalized on post-lockdown lifestyle shifts, and comfort-driven wardrobes that blur the line between work, fitness, and leisure remain entrenched consumer staples several years on.
The two segments with the highest YoY growth – off-price and luxury – are at the two ends of the spectrum in terms of household income levels, highlighting the bifurcation that has characterized much of the retail space in 2025. And luxury and off-price are also benefiting from larger consumer trends that are boosting performance at both premium and value-focused retailers.
In-store traffic behavior reveals that these two segments enjoy the longest average dwell times in the apparel category, with an average visit to a luxury or off-price retailer lasting 39.2 and 41.3 minutes, respectively. This suggests that consumers are drawn to the experiential aspect of both segments – treasure hunting at off-price chains or indulging in a sense of prestige at a luxury retailer. Together, these patterns highlight that – despite appealing to different consumer groups – both ends of the market are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
> Off-price and luxury segments are outperforming, while general apparel, athleisure, and department store visits lag YoY under tariff pressures and consumer trade-downs.
> Looking over the longer term reveals that athleisure is still far ahead of its pre-pandemic baseline – even if YoY demand has softened.
> Luxury and off-price both are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
The beauty sector has long benefitted from the “lipstick effect” — the tendency for consumers to indulge in small luxuries even when discretionary spending is constrained. And while the beauty category’s softening in today’s cautious spending environment could suggest that this effect has weakened, a longer view of the data tells a more nuanced story.
Beauty visits grew significantly between 2021 and 2024, fueled by a confluence of factors including post-pandemic “revenge shopping,” demand for bolder looks as consumers returned to social life, and new store openings and retail partnerships. Against that backdrop, recent YoY traffic dips are likely a sign of stabilization rather than true declines. Social commerce, and minimalist skincare routines may be moderating in-store traffic, but shoppers are still engaged, even as they blend online and offline shopping or seek out lower-cost alternatives to maximize value.
Analysis of average visit duration for three leading beauty chains – Ulta Beauty, Bath & Body Works, and Sally Beauty Supply – highlights the shifting role but continued relevance of physical stores in the space.
Average visit duration decreased post-pandemic – likely due to more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery. But that trend began to reverse in H1 2025, signaling the changing role of physical stores. Enhanced tech for in-store product exploration and rich experiences may be helping drive deeper engagement, underscoring beauty retail’s staying power even in a more measured spending environment.
Bottom Line:
> Beauty’s slight YoY visit declines point to a period of normalization following a post-pandemic boom, while longer-term trends show the category remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels.
> Visits grew shorter post-pandemic, driven by more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery – but dwell time is now lengthening again, signaling renewed in-store engagement driven by tech-enabled discovery and immersive experiences.
Foot traffic data highlight major differences in the recent performance of various discretionary apparel categories. Off-price, fitness, and home furnishings are pulling ahead, well-positioned to keep capitalizing on shifting priorities. Luxury also remains resilient, likely thanks to its higher-income visitor base.
At the same time, beauty’s normalization and the slowdown in mid-tier apparel, electronics, and home improvement show that caution persists across discretionary budgets. Moving forward, retailers that align with consumers’ demand for value, accessible upgrades, and immersive experiences may be best placed to thrive in this era of selective spending.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
