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Five Below has thrived in recent years, riding strong demand for affordable splurges. But how did the chain hold up in early 2026, with rising gas prices and sinking consumer sentiment squeezing discretionary spending?
Five Below has continued expanding its footprint over the past year, entering the Pacific Northwest for the first time and ending January 2026 with 1,921 stores across 46 states – a net increase of 150 stores compared to early 2025.
This growth helped drive a 25.9% YoY jump in chainwide visits in Q1 2026. But same-store visits also sustained double-digit growth throughout the quarter and into April – showing that Five Below is meaningfully growing its audience at existing locations even as it opens new ones at a rapid clip. That’s a rare combination at a moment when much of retail is grappling with consumer pullback.
Five Below's same-store momentum appears closely tied to its revamped merchandising strategy. Since taking the helm in December 2024, CEO Winnie Park has integrated the company’s “Five Beyond” items – priced at $7, $10, $15, and above – throughout the main store floor. Park has also pushed sharper, more trend-focused merchandising and a marketing approach built around social discovery and creator-led engagement.
And these steps appear to be attracting higher-earning shoppers. Captured market data shows that the median household income of Five Below’s visitor base rose from $78.5K in 2025 to $80.3K in 2026 – a meaningful uptick after several years of marginal declines.
To be sure, a similar push into higher-price discretionary categories appears to have weighed on some other discount retailers, such as Dollar Tree, this spring. But Five Below has always been a discretionary-first destination – and unlike Dollar Tree, whose shoppers can shift more of their trips to Dollar General as they prioritize basics, Five Below's affordable-splurge appeal isn't easily replicated elsewhere in the value aisle.
Five Below's audience is also more distinctly local than other discretionary retail chains – an advantage as rising gas prices push consumers to rethink longer drives. Though not as hyper-local as traditional dollar stores, Five Below still pulls disproportionately from nearby neighborhoods: in early 2026, 53.8% of visits came from within five miles, compared with 47.9% for discretionary chains more broadly. That local footprint, paired with attainable price points, makes Five Below a natural choice for consumers eager to splurge on something fun even as they grow more selective about discretionary trips.
Five Below's Q1 2026 performance reflects a chain firing on multiple cylinders – expanding its footprint, lifting traffic at existing stores, broadening its demographic reach, and benefiting from a convenient presence as gas prices weigh on longer trips. In an environment marked by growing consumer caution, that breadth of momentum positions Five Below to keep outperforming through the rest of 2026.
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During periods of economic uncertainty and tighter consumer spending, demand for smaller indulgences often remains resilient. In beauty, this phenomenon is commonly referred to as the “lipstick effect” – the idea that consumers continue seeking affordable products that provide a sense of comfort, self-care, or reward even as discretionary budgets tighten.
Still, even this resilience doesn’t allow beauty chains to rest on their laurels. In 2025, both Ulta Beauty and Bath & Body Works introduced new corporate strategies aimed at driving their next phase of growth – but from very different starting points. Ulta is evolving from a position of relative strength, leaning into loyalty, discovery, and brand partnerships to sustain momentum. Bath & Body Works, meanwhile, is navigating a more uneven traffic recovery as it works to reduce its reliance on promotional peaks and expand engagement across digital and alternative channels.
How are those efforts resonating with consumers? And how are expanding e-commerce options impacting brick-and-mortar beauty visits? We dove into the data to find out.
Ulta Beauty’s has been faring well in recent months, with positive same-store and overall traffic increasing year-over-year (YoY) in nine of the last twelve months.
That consistency may reflect the impact of Ulta Beauty Unleashed – the company’s strategy aimed at deepening customer engagement and refining in-store execution, launched just over a year ago. The initiative has helped fuel continued growth in Ulta’s loyalty ecosystem, which now boasts more than 46 million members, while also creating a flywheel effect in which greater customer participation supports Ulta’s personalization capabilities that, in turn, help drive further engagement.
Ulta’s strong loyalty infrastructure also plays a role in the retailer’s ability to offer an innovative product assortment through brand-building – another pillar of the Ulta Beauty Unleashed strategy. This approach helps Ulta sustain a sense of discovery and newness within the store environment, driving consistent traffic while also creating opportunities for outsized visit spikes. This dynamic was evident in February 2026, when the launch of the Rare Beauty partnership drove record-breaking demand and contributed to a 10.3% increase in YoY visits to the chain – marking Ulta’s largest monthly traffic gain of the past twelve months.
Bath & Body Works, on the other hand, has been more reliant on promotion-driven peaks – something its leadership has been candid about since announcing its new Consumer First Formula.
Double-digit year-over-year (YoY) visit growth in July and October 2025 as well as in January 2026 aligned with periods of heightened promotional activity – including the retailer’s Semi-Annual Sales. But traffic moderated between those peaks, highlighting what management believes to be an overreliance on promotional cadences.
As Bath & Body Works CEO Daniel Heaf put it “transformations of this scale take time.” The foot traffic data suggests that the brand may still be facing near-term headwinds, with monthly YoY traffic trending down since February 2026 – although the dips may also indicate that a portion of in-store demand is shifting to e-commerce and alternate sales channels.
Bath & Body Works recently opened a new Amazon storefront, refreshed its mobile app, and lowered its free-shipping threshold, moves aimed at capturing digital demand and promoting discovery – particularly among younger consumers. And the company’s launch into campus bookstores reflects a similar effort to leverage alternative distribution channels to extend the brand’s reach and build relevance with younger consumers. These digital and alternative retail investments are designed to build longer-term engagement that could eventually translate into sustained growth for the chain.
But even as Ulta and Bath & Body Works lean into digital and alternative channels, the brands are continuing to invest in their owned stores – and analyzing shifts in visit length for the two chains offers further insight into the role stores continue to play within each brand’s broader transformation strategy.
A Q1 comparison reveals that since 2023, more than 37% of visits to Ulta lasted over 30 minutes. The retailer has been rolling out an updated store format since 2022 – designed to promote exploration with a more intuitive category-based layout. And investments in the store experience have continued with ongoing Beauty Bar activations and events, K-Beauty World shop-in-shops, and the recent Wellness by Ulta Beauty pilot, all likely contributors to a more discovery-driven customer experience and longer dwell times.
Bath & Body Works, while seeing a smaller share of visits exceeding the 30-minute mark than Ulta, posted a significant increase in visits of that length between Q1 2025 (32.5%) and Q1 2026 (34.1%). This indicates that the Gingham+ redesign introduced in 2025 – featuring scent bars, dedicated product testing zones, and a more immersive merchandising approach – may be influencing the amount of time shoppers spend in-store.
While digital and nontraditional retail channels have become critical components of modern beauty retail strategy, the in-store experience remains a key driver of customer engagement – whether a retailer is navigating a period of transformation or working to sustain long-term growth.
The data suggests that beauty retail’s next phase of growth will depend on more than category resilience alone. Both Bath & Body Works and Ulta Beauty are investing in new ways to engage consumers – from loyalty ecosystems and digital expansion to immersive store experiences designed to encourage discovery. And while their strategies differ, both underscore a broader industry reality: even in an increasingly omnichannel environment, physical stores remain central to how beauty brands build engagement and long-term consumer loyalty.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
January and February saw a modest year-over-year (YoY) uptick in visits to the DICK’s Sporting Goods banner, while March traffic softened. However, March 2026’s visit decline appears at least partially calendar-driven – the month had one fewer Saturday than the previous year – and traffic rebounded to near-flat levels in April.
Gap entered 2026 with momentum, but foot traffic softened in both March and April – perhaps reflecting the calendar shift as well as broader consumer caution and its impact on discretionary spending. Still, the traffic slowdown may be a temporary setback. Gap continues to expand into apparel-adjacent retail categories such as beauty and accessories – with new product launches in the months ahead that could help reinvigorate visits.
Meanwhile, lululemon’s North American business continues to face headwinds, as domestic performance lags behind stronger international results. Yet, the company – still searching for a new CEO – is guiding for a turnaround in the second half of 2026. Planned initiatives include new product introductions, reduced reliance on markdowns, and ongoing store expansion. Whether visit trends begin to reflect that anticipated recovery will be closely watched as the year unfolds.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The first four months of 2026 have been challenging for department stores, as consumer caution and rising gas prices weigh on discretionary spending. But visit data reveals a clear divide between chains gaining traction and those continuing to lose ground – offering a window into what’s working in today’s environment.
Looking at quarterly performance, Midwestern chain Von Maur stood apart from the field in Q1 2026, posting an 8.7% increase in overall visits and a 5.9% gain in average visits per location – the strongest performance in the segment on both measures.
Von Maur’s appeal can be attributed in part to a tightly controlled model that prioritizes service, brand curation, and pricing consistency over scale and promotions. And as a regional favorite in the Midwest, the brand benefits from a well-established customer base.
Other players with similar positioning also showed relative strength in Q1. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regional favorite Boscov’s outperformed several larger national chains, while Nordstrom saw average visits per location increase 1.6% year over year – suggesting continued traction for curation-led formats. Saks Fifth Avenue and Bloomingdale’s also held steady, reinforcing the resilience of higher-end department stores even as Saks navigates bankruptcy proceedings.
Still, monthly data highlights just how exposed the department store segment is to discretionary, time-rich shopping trips, which tend to concentrate on weekends – and which consumers may be pulling back on in 2026.
In Q1 2026, Saturdays accounted for more than a quarter (25.4%) of department store visits, well above both the 17.4% average for non-discretionary brick-and-mortar retailers and the 21.6% average for discretionary chains. As a result, March 2026 – which had one fewer Saturday than March 2025 – saw visits soften across the board.
April, however, painted a more encouraging picture. With the calendar normalized, several chains returned to flat or positive year-over-year same-store visit trends. Von Maur led once again with an 8.5% increase, while Nordstrom (+0.9%) and Bloomingdale’s (+1.7%) also posted gains. Macy’s, as it advances its Bold New Chapter strategy, saw its year-over-year visit gap narrow to 2.4% in April. As the chain continues to close underperforming locations and invest in its Reimagine 125 cohort, performance may improve further in the months ahead.
Department store performance in Q1 2026 reflected today’s increasingly bifurcated landscape, where premium, experience-driven retailers continue to draw shoppers even amid broader caution, while mid-market chains remain more exposed to macro pressure. Even in a constrained environment, consumers are still willing to show up for brands that offer a clear, compelling experience – but that bar is rising, making it harder for less differentiated players to keep up.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
When consumers get cautious, off-price gets busy. And as shoppers continued trading down in Q1 2026 amid rising gas prices and tariff-driven uncertainty, Ross Dress for Less stood out as a top performer, capturing demand from consumers seeking the deepest discounts.
Off-price’s momentum is most visible in its widening lead over department stores. The category captured 65.7% of combined visit share in Q1 2026, up from 62.2% in Q1 2025 and just 56.2% in Q1 2022. These steady, multi-year gains underscore a structural shift in where consumers are choosing to shop – one that continues to accelerate as value becomes a central decision driver.
While part of off-price’s growth stems from ongoing fleet expansions – even as department stores shrink their footprints – the data also points to steady, and in some cases rising, same-store performance.
Ross Dress for Less, for example, has seen double-digit same-store visit gains in recent months, consistent with its most recent earnings report of a 9% year-over-year (YoY) increase in comparable sales, primarily driven by traffic. Its no-frills, ultra-low pricing often undercuts the rest of the off-price segment – making it particularly attractive in today’s increasingly needs-based shopping environment. And with no e-commerce channel to divert demand, every transaction runs through the chain’s physical stores.
At Marshalls and TJ Maxx, the core strategy remains what it has always been: opportunistic buying at scale paired with a slightly more elevated treasure-hunt experience that keeps customers coming back. And in Q1, the banners delivered low single-digit overall visit growth, with modest gains in visits per location.
Performance, however, was uneven across the quarter. After a February lift – helped in part by easier comparisons – March same-store traffic turned slightly negative, reflecting both a calendar shift (one fewer Saturday) and broader consumer caution. That softness largely continued into April, though TJ Maxx saw a modest 0.4% YoY uptick. Marmaxx's higher price points and more brand-forward assortment likely make it more sensitive to discretionary pullbacks than Ross – while its e-commerce presence could also be absorbing demand as higher gas prices shift some shopping online.
Even so, Marmaxx remains in a position of structural strength. Its network of more than 1,400 buyers sourcing from over 21,000 vendors worldwide provides unmatched flexibility – particularly as tariff-related disruptions push excess inventory into the market. And as consumer sentiment rebounds, traffic growth is likely to follow.
Burlington, meanwhile, posted an 7.7% overall increase in visits in Q1, largely driven by its rapidly expanding store base, even as per-location traffic declined 2.1% YoY.
The company’s elevation strategy – focused on improving assortment quality with more recognizable brands and higher quality products – has delivered solid results in recent quarters. But with consumers pulling back on discretionary spending, the elevated assortment may be temporarily finding a smaller audience – a dynamic likely amplified by Burlington’s more value-oriented customer base compared to peers.
Still, Burlington’s positioning leaves it well placed to regain momentum when conditions stabilize. And given the current environment, strong overall traffic growth coupled with modest same-store declines represents a relatively resilient performance.
When economic pressure builds, off-price tends to win. And though Ross may be leading the pack today, Marmaxx and Burlington are both well positioned to regain strong traffic momentum as conditions evolve. With consumer confidence still strained and excess inventory likely to remain plentiful, the structural tailwinds supporting off-price remain firmly in place.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Overall visits to U.S. grocery stores rose 1.7% year over year (YoY) in Q1 2026, extending a streak of growth that now spans four consecutive quarters. At the category level, most of this growth was driven by expansion, as the average number of visits per location remained essentially flat YoY.
Still, a deeper look at the data reveals meaningful variation across segments and regions, shedding light on the dynamics shaping grocery traffic in 2026.
Grocery visit growth has been positive in every quarter over the past year, peaking at 3.3% YoY in Q4 before moderating to 1.7% in Q1 2026. Per-location visits, however, lagged overall growth throughout the analyzed period, increasing just 0.2% YoY in Q1 2026.
The takeaway? New store openings, rather than stronger performance from existing locations, are accounting for most of the category's recent visit gains.
That said, the combination of ongoing expansion and steady performance at existing locations points to resilient underlying demand. Even as mass merchandisers, wholesale clubs, and e-commerce players compete for share, dedicated grocery stores remain a fundamentally durable format.
The relatively flat nationwide per-location performance also masks some regional variation. Several statewide markets – including Montana, Colorado, Maine, Kansas, Texas, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Indiana – saw per-location visit growth exceeding 2.0% YoY in Q1 2026.
This divergence suggests that local dynamics, ranging from population growth and suburban expansion to competitive intensity and store rollout strategies, are playing a role in shaping performance. In other words, while national trends appear stable, grocery remains a highly localized business where market-specific factors can drive outperformance.
A closer look at different grocery segments reveals further variation.
Fresh-format grocers like Trader Joe's and Sprouts led in overall visit growth, highlighting a rapidly expanding segment that is capturing a growing share of traffic while also maintaining solid YoY visit performance at existing stores. Value grocers also saw expansion-driven gains, though per-location traffic was softer at -2.8% YoY. And though traditional grocery chains have not been on an expansion trajectory, they slightly outperformed fresh-format players on a per-location basis, with visits up 1.5% YoY. For a segment that has lagged peers for several quarters, this represents notable improvement.
What's behind traditional groceries’ emerging store-level strength?
One explanation may be traditional grocers' success in capturing the short trip – the fastest-growing type of grocery visit. Whether driven by curbside pickup or quick fill-in runs for a few missing items or an inexpensive prepared lunch, these visits are becoming increasingly common. And a look at relative category-wide visit share shows that traditional grocers are the only grocery segment over-indexing on sub-10 minute visits, capturing a greater share of short visits than of overall grocery traffic in Q1 2026.
This suggests that habit, proximity, and assortment breadth may matter more than price positioning when a shopper just needs a few items fast. Traditional grocery shoppers may also be more likely than value-oriented shoppers to use curbside pickup – a service that may come with markups or additional fees – while fresh and specialty shoppers may be more inclined to browse in-store.
The Q1 2026 grocery landscape is defined by steady but uneven growth. New store expansion is fueling topline gains, while performance varies across regions and formats. At the same time, the rise of short, convenience-driven trips is subtly reshaping the competitive landscape – favoring retailers that can deliver speed, accessibility, and consistency over those competing primarily on price or experiential differentiation.
So is traditional grocery making a comeback? Not in the sense of reclaiming overall growth leadership. But in some of the areas that increasingly matter, traditional grocers are carving out a durable and defensible role.
Will traditional grocery retailers continue to thrive as the year wears on? Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Everybody loves coffee. And with some 75% of American adults indulging in a cup of joe at least once a week, it’s no wonder the industry is constantly on an upswing.
In early 2024, year-over-year (YoY) visits to coffee chains increased nationwide – with every state in the continental U.S. experiencing year-over-year (YoY) coffee visit growth.
The most substantial foot traffic boosts were seen in smaller markets like Oklahoma (19.4%), Wyoming (19.3%), and Arkansas (16.9%), where expansions may have a more substantial impact on statewide industry growth. But the nation’s largest coffee markets, including Texas (10.9%), California (4.2%), Florida (4.2%), and New York (3.5%), also experienced significant YoY upticks.
The nation’s coffee visit growth is being fueled, in large part, by chain expansions: Major coffee players are leaning into growing demand by steadily increasing their footprints. And a look at per-location foot traffic trends shows that by and large, they are doing so without significantly diluting visitation to existing stores.
On an industry-wide level, visits to coffee chains increased 5.1% YoY during the first five months of 2024. And over the same period, the average number of visits to each individual coffee location declined just slightly by 0.6% – meaning that individual stores drew just about the same amount of foot traffic as they did in 2023.
Drilling down into chain-level data shows some variation between brands. Dutch Bros., BIGGBY COFFEE and Dunkin’ all saw significant chain-wide visit boosts, accompanied by minor increases in their average number of visits per location.
Starbucks, for its part, which reported a YoY decline in U.S. sales for Q2 2024, maintained a small lag in visits per location. But given the coffee leader’s massive footprint – some 16,600 stores nationwide – its ability to expand while avoiding more significant dilution of individual store performance shows that Starbucks’ growth is meeting robust demand.
What is driving the coffee industry’s remarkable category-wide growth? And who are the customers behind it? This white paper dives into the data to explore key factors driving foot traffic to leading coffee chains in early 2024. The report explores the demographic and psychographic characteristics of visitors to major players in the coffee space and examines strategies brands can use to make the most of the opportunity presented by a thriving industry.
One factor shaping the surge in coffee visit growth is the slow-but-sure return-to-office (RTO). Hybrid work may be the post-COVID new normal – but RTO mandates and WFH fatigue have led to steady increases in office foot traffic over the past year. And in some major hubs – including New York and Miami – office visits are back to more than 80.0% of what they were pre-pandemic.
A look at shifting Starbucks visitation patterns shows that customer journeys and behavior increasingly reflect those of office-goers. In April and May 2022, for example, 18.6% of Starbucks visitors proceeded to their workplace immediately following their coffee stop – but by 2024, this share shot up to 21.0%.
Over the same period, the percentage of early morning (7:00 to 10:00 AM) Starbucks visits lasting less than 10 minutes also increased significantly – from 64.3% in 2022 to 68.7% in 2024. More customers are picking up their coffee on the go – many of them on the way to work – rather than settling down to enjoy it on-site.
Dunkin’ is another chain that is benefiting from consumers on the go. Examining the coffee giant’s performance across major regional markets – those where the chain maintains a significant presence – reveals a strong correlation between the share of Dunkin’ visits in each state lasting less than five minutes and the chain’s local YoY trajectory.
In Wisconsin, for example, 50.9% of visits to Dunkin’ between January and May 2024 lasted less than five minutes. And Wisconsin also saw the most impressive YoY visit growth (5.9%). Illinois, Ohio, Maine, and Connecticut followed similar patterns, with high shares of very short visits and strong YoY showings.
On the other end of the spectrum lay Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida, where very short visits accounted for a low share of the chain’s statewide total – under 40.% – and where visits declined YoY.
Dunkin’s success with very short visits may be driven in part by its popular app, which makes it easy for harried customers to place their order online and save time in-store. And this is good news indeed for the coffee leader – since customers using the app also tend to generate bigger tickets.
Dutch Bros.’ meteoric rise has been fueled, in part, by its appeal to younger audiences. Recently ranked as Gen Z’s favorite quick-service restaurant, the rapidly-expanding coffee chain sets itself apart with a strong brand identity built on cultivating a positive, friendly customer experience.
And Dutch Bros.’ people-centered approach is resonating especially well with singles – including young adults living alone – who may particularly appreciate the chain’s community atmosphere.
Analyzing the relative performance of Dutch Bros.’ locations across metro areas – focusing on regions where the chain has a strong local presence – shows that it performs best in areas with plenty of singles. Indeed, the share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ local captured markets is very strongly correlated with the coffee brand’s CBSA-level YoY per-location visit performance. Areas with higher concentrations of one-person households saw significantly more YoY visit growth in the first part of 2024. (A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice).
The share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ Tucson, AZ captured market, for example, stands at 33.4% – well above the nationwide baseline of 27.5%. And between January and May 2024, Tucson-area Dutch Bros. saw a 6.0% increase in the average number of visits per location. Tulsa, OK, Medford, OR, and Oklahoma City, OK – which also feature high shares of one-person households (over 30.0%) – similarly saw per-location visit increases ranging from 3.6% - 7.0%. On the flip side, Fresno, CA, Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, and San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX, which feature lower-than-average shares of single-person households, saw YoY per-location visit declines ranging from 1.5%-9.5%.
As Dutch Bros. forges ahead with its planned expansions, it may benefit from doubling down on this trends and focusing its development efforts on markets with higher-than-average shares of one-person households – such as university towns or urban areas with lots of young professionals.
Michigan-based BIGGBY COFFEE is another java winner in expansion mode. With a growth strategy focused on emerging markets with less brand saturation, BIGGBY has been setting its sights on small towns and rural areas throughout the Midwest and South. Though the chain does have locations in bigger cities like Detroit and Cincinnati, some of its most significant markets are in smaller population centers.
And a look at the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top-performing locations in early 2024 shows that they are significantly over-indexed for suburban consumers – both compared to BIGGBY as a whole and compared to nationwide baselines. (Top-performing locations are defined as those that experienced the greatest YoY visit growth between January and May 2024).
“Suburban Boomers”, for example – a Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment encompassing middle-class empty-nesters living in suburbs – comprised 10.6% of BIGGBY’s top captured markets in early 2024, compared to just 6.6% for BIGGBY’s overall. (The nationwide baseline for Suburban Boomers is even lower – 4.4%.) And Upper Diverse Suburban Families – a segment made up of upper-middle-class suburbanites – accounted for 9.6% of the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top locations, compared to just 7.2% for BIGGBY’s as a whole, and 8.3% nationwide.
Coffee has long been one of America’s favorite beverages. And java chains that offer consumers an enjoyable, affordable way to splurge are expanding both their footprints and their audiences. By leaning into shifting work routines and catering to customers’ varying habits and preferences, major coffee players like Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros., and BIGGBY COFFEE are continuing to thrive.
Note: This report is based on an analysis of visitation patterns for regional and nationwide grocery chains and does not include single-location stores.
Grocery stores, superstores, and dollar stores all carry food products – and American consumers buy groceries at all three. But even in today’s crowded food retail environment, traditional grocery chains have a special role to play. With their primary focus on stocking a wide variety of fresh foods, these chains serve a critical function in offering consumers access to healthy options.
But visualizing the footprints of major grocery chains across the continental U.S. – alongside those of discount & dollar stores – shows that the geographical distribution of grocery chains remains uneven.
In some areas, including parts of the Northeast, Midwest, South Atlantic, and Pacific regions, grocery chains are plentiful. But in others – some with population centers large enough to feature a robust dollar store presence – they remain in short supply.
And though many superstore locations also provide a full array of grocery offerings, they, too, are often sparsely represented in areas with low concentrations of grocery chains.
For grocery chain operators seeking to expand, these underserved grocery markets can present a significant opportunity. And for civic stakeholders looking to broaden access to healthy food across communities, these areas highlight a policy challenge. For both groups, identifying underserved markets with significant untapped demand can be a critical first step in deciding where to focus grocery development initiatives.
This white paper dives into the location analytics to examine grocery store availability across the United States – and harnesses these insights to explore potential demand in some underserved markets. The report focuses on locations belonging to regional or nationwide grocery chains, rather than single-location stores.
Last year, grocery chains accounted for 43.4% of nationwide visits to food retailers – including grocery chains, superstores, and discount & dollar stores. But drilling down into the data for different areas of the country reveals striking regional variation – offering a glimpse into the variability of grocery store access throughout the U.S. In some states, grocery stores attract the majority of visit share to food retailers, while in others, dollar stores or superstores dominate the scene.
The ten states where residents were most likely to visit grocery chains in early 2024 – Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Massachusetts, California, Maryland, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island – were all on the East or West Coasts. In these states, as well as in Nevada and New York, grocery chain visits accounted for 50.0% or more of food retail visits between January and April 2024.
Meanwhile, residents of many West North Central and South Central states were much less likely to do their food shopping at grocery chains. In North Dakota, for example, grocery chain visits accounted for just 11.7% of visits to food retailers over the analyzed period. And in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, too, grocery stores drew less than 20.0% of the overall food retail foot traffic.
But low grocery store visit share does not necessarily indicate a lack of consumer interest or ability to support such stores. And in some of these underserved regions, existing grocery chains are seeing outsize visit growth – indicating growing demand for their offerings.
North Dakota, the state with the smallest share of visits going to grocery chains in early 2024, experienced a 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in grocery visits during the same period – nearly double the nationwide baseline of 5.7%. Other states with low grocery visit share, including Nebraska, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico, also experienced higher-than-average YoY grocery chain visit growth. This suggests significant untapped potential for grocery stores and a market that is hungry for more.
Alabama is one state where grocery chains accounted for a relatively small share of overall food retail foot traffic in early 2024 (just 28.9%) – but where YoY visit growth outperformed the nationwide average. And digging down even further into local grocery store visitation trends provides further evidence that at least in some places, low grocery visit share may be due to inadequate supply, rather than insufficient demand.
In Central Alabama, for example, many residents drive at least 10 miles to reach a local grocery chain. And several parts of the state, both rural and urban, feature clusters of grocery stores that draw customers from relatively far away.
But zooming in on YoY visitation data for local grocery chain locations shows that at least some of these areas likely harbor untapped demand. Take for example the Camden, Butler, Thomasville, and Gilbertown areas (circled in the map above). The Piggly Wiggly location in Butler, AL, drew 40.1% of visits from 10 or more miles away. The same store experienced a 23.3% YoY increase in visits in early 2024 – far above the statewide baseline of 6.6%. Meanwhile, the Super Foods location in Thomasville, AL, which drew 52.8% of visits from at least 10 miles away – experienced YoY visit growth of 12.3%. The Piggly Wiggly locations in Camden, AL and Gilbertown, AL saw similar trends.
At the same time, trade area analysis of the four locations reveals that the grocery stores had little to no trade area overlap during the analyzed period. Each store served specific areas, with minimal cannibalization among customer bases.
These metrics appear to highlight robust demand for grocery stores in the region – grocery visits are growing at a stronger rate than those in the overall state, people are willing to make the drive to these stores, and each one has little to no competition from the others.
While significant opportunity exists across the country, many communities still face considerable challenges in supporting large grocery stores. Though South Carolina has a significant number of grocery chain locations, for example, certain areas within the state have low access to food shopping opportunities. And one local government – Greenville County – is considering offering tax breaks to grocery stores that set up shop in the area, to improve local fresh food accessibility.
Placer.ai migration and visitation data shows that Greenville County is ripe for such initiatives: the county’s population grew by 4.8% over the past four years – with much of that increase a result of positive net migration. And YoY visits to Greenville County Grocery Stores have consistently outperformed state averages: In April 2024, grocery visits in the county grew by 6.1% YoY, while overall visits to grocery stores in South Carolina grew by 4.2%. This growth – both in terms of grocery visits and population – points to rising demand for grocery stores in Greenville County.
Analyzing the Greenville County grocery store trade areas with Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – offers further insight into local grocery shoppers’ particular demand and preferences.
Consumers in Greenville-area grocery store trade areas, for example, are more likely to be interested in “Mid-Range Grocery Stores” (including brands like Aldi, Kroger, and Lidl) than residents of grocery store trade areas in the state as a whole. This metric provides further evidence of local demand for grocery chains – and offers a glimpse into the kinds of specific grocery offerings likely to succeed in the area.
Grocery stores remain essential services for many consumers, providing a place to pick up fresh produce, meat, and other healthy food options. And many areas in the country are ripe for expansion, with eager customer bases and growing demand. Identifying such areas with location analytics can help both grocery store operators and municipal stakeholders provide their communities and customer bases with an enhanced grocery shopping experience that caters to local preferences.
Following COVID-era highs, domestic migration levels have begun to taper off – with the number of Americans moving within the U.S. hitting an all-time low, according to some sources, in 2023.
To be sure, some popular COVID-era destinations – including Idaho, the Carolinas, and Utah – saw their net domestic migration continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. But other states which had been relocation hotspots between February 2020 and February 2023, such as Wyoming and Texas, experienced negative net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Analyzing CBSA-level migration data reveals differences and similarities between last year’s migration patterns and COVID-era trends.
Between February 2020 and February 2023, seven out of the ten CBSAs posting the largest population increases due to inbound domestic migration were located in Florida. But between February 2023 and February 2024, the top 10 CBSAs with the largest net migrated percent of the population were significantly more diverse. Only four out of the ten CBSAs were located in Florida, and several new metro areas – including Provo-Orem, UT, Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA, and Boulder, CO – joined the list.
This white paper leverages a variety of location intelligence tools – including Placer.ai’s Migration Report, Niche Neighborhood Grades, and ACS Census Data location intelligence – to analyze two migration hotspots. Specifically, the report focuses on Daytona Beach, FL, which already appeared on the February 2020 to February 2023 list and has continued to see steady growth, and Boulder, CO, which has emerged as a new top destination. The data highlights the potential of CBSAs with unique value propositions to continue to attract newcomers despite ongoing housing headwinds.
The Boulder, CO CBSA has emerged as a domestic migration hotspot: The net influx of population between February 2023 and February 2024 (i.e. the total number of people that moved to Boulder from elsewhere in the U.S., minus those that left) constituted 3.1% of the CBSA’s February 2024 population.
The strong migration is partially due to the University of Colorado, Boulder’s growing popularity. But the metro area has also emerged as a flourishing tech hub, with Google, Apple, and Amazon all setting up shop in town, along with a wealth of smaller start ups.
Most domestic relocators tend to remain within state lines – so unsurprisingly, many of the recent newcomers to Boulder moved from other CBSAs in Colorado. But perhaps due to Boulder’s robust tech ecosystem, many of the new residents also came from Los Angeles, CA (6.6%) and San Francisco, CA (3.4%) – other CBSAs known for their thriving tech scenes.
At the same time, looking at the other CBSAs feeding migration to the area indicates that tech is likely not the only draw attracting people to Boulder: A significant share of relocators came from the CBSAs of Chicago, IL (6.1%), Dallas , TX (4.9%), and New York, NY (3.9%). The move from these relatively urbanized CBSAs to scenic Boulder indicates that some of the domestic migration to the area is likely driven by people looking for better access to nature or a general lifestyle change.
According to the U.S. News & World Report, Boulder ranked in second place in terms of U.S. cities with the best quality of life. Using Niche Neighborhood Grades to compare quality of life attributes in the Boulder CBSA and in the areas of origin dataset highlights some of the draw factors attracting newcomers to Boulder beyond the thriving tech scene.
The Boulder CBSA ranked higher than the metro areas of origin for “Public Schools,” “Health & Fitness,” “Fit for Families,” and “Access to Outdoor Activities.” These migration draw factors are likely helping Boulder attract more senior executives alongside younger tech workers – and can also explain why relocators from more urban metro areas may be choosing to make Boulder their home.
Boulder’s strong inbound migration numbers over the past year – likely driven by its flourishing tech scene and beautiful natural surroundings – reveal the growth potential of certain CBSAs regardless of wider housing market headwinds.
Florida experienced a population boom during the pandemic, and several CBSAs in the state – including the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL CBSA – have continued to welcome domestic relocators in high numbers. The CBSA’s anchor city, Daytona Beach – known for its Bike Week and NASCAR’s Daytona 500 – has also seen positive net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Americans planning for retirement or retirees operating on a fixed income are likely particularly interested in optimizing their living expenses. And given Daytona’s relative affordability, it’s no surprise that the median age in the areas of origin feeding migration to Daytona Beach tends to be on the older side.
According to the 2021 Census ACS 5-Year Projection data, the median age in Daytona Beach was 39.0. Meanwhile, the weighted median age in the areas of migration origin was 42.6, indicating that those moving to Daytona Beach may be older than the current residents of the city.
Zooming into the migration data on a zip code level also highlights Daytona Beach’s appeal to older Americans: The zip code welcoming the highest rates of domestic migration was 32124, home to both Jimmy Buffet’s Latitude Margaritaville’s 55+ community and the LPGA International Golf Club, host of the LPGA Tour. The median age in this zip code is also older than in Daytona Beach as a whole, and the weighted age in the zip codes of origin was even higher – suggesting that older Americans and retirees may be driving much of the migration to the area.
Looking at the migration draw factors for Daytona Beach also suggests that the city is particularly appealing to retirees, with the city scoring an A grade for its “Fit for Retirees.” But the city of Daytona Beach is also an attractive destination for anyone looking to elevate their leisure time, with the city scoring higher than Daytona Beach’s cities of migration origin for “Weather,” “Access to Restaurants,” or “Access to Nightlife.”
Like Boulder, Daytona’s scenery – including its famous beaches – is likely attracting newcomers looking to spend more time outdoors and improve their work-life balance. And like Boulder and its tech scene, Daytona Beach also has an extra pull factor – its affordability and fit for older Americans – that is likely helping the area continue to attract new residents, even as domestic migration slows down nationwide.
Although the overall pace of domestic migration has slowed, analyzing location intelligence data reveals several migration hotspots amidst the overall cooldown. Boulder and Daytona Beach each have a set of unique draw factors that seem to attract different populations – and the success of these regions highlights the many paths to migration growth in 2024.
