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Recovering consumer sentiment has provided a boost to restaurants in recent months – but not all dining segments are performing equally well.
We dove into the data to check in with two casual dining steakhouse chains that were recently named America’s favorite full-service restaurants – Texas Roadhouse and Darden’s LongHorn Steakhouse. How did they perform in Q3? And what are some of the factors contributing to their success?
Since April 2024, Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse have both experienced consistently positive YoY foot traffic – outpacing the wider full-service restaurant space. The steakhouses’ strongest months were in May and June, when both chains traditionally draw big Mother’s Day and Father’s Day crowds. In August, too – prime vacation season – Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse experienced 12.5% and 9.3% YoY visit increases, respectively.
On a quarterly basis, YoY visits to Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse increased 5.9% and 4.0%, respectively, in Q3 2024 – while the wider FSR space saw a 2.0% decline. And though some of this growth can be attributed to the chains’ expanding footprints, the average number of visits to each chain’s individual locations also rose YoY (3.0% for Texas Roadhouse and 2.6% for LongHorn Steakhouse).
What is the secret to these steakhouses’ success? One factor that appears to be driving growth for both restaurants is their relative affordability – especially on weekday afternoons. The cost of beef has continued to climb in recent months – and though the two chains have been forced to raise prices, they have remained committed to providing high-quality meals that don’t break the bank.
One way they’ve done so is through weekday specials that allow hungry customers to indulge as they go about their routines. Texas Roadhouse’s Early Dine Menu offers diners a variety of entrees for $8.99 to $11.99 – as long as they snag them before the dinner time rush. LongHorn Steakhouse, for its part, offers a lunchtime special on Mondays through Saturdays from 11:00 AM to 3:00 PM, including an $8.99 sandwich combo.
And foot traffic data suggests that these offerings may be helping to drive traffic to the two chains. In Q3 2024 (July to September), both Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse saw significantly higher weekday YoY visit growth during the afternoons – 9.7% and 8.0% respectively, compared to 6.8% and 4.3% after 6:00 PM. The accelerating return-to-office push may also be contributing to the two chains’ YoY visit growth, as commuters seek out affordable places to have lunch with colleagues.
Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse are both major national chains – with locations spread across the continental U.S. But a look at the geographic distribution of visits to the two steakhouse giants shows that each of them has a somewhat different regional focus. Though Georgia – where LongHorn Steakhouse was founded – is the brand’s second-largest market in terms of restaurant count, the Peach State garnered the highest share of visits to the chain in Q3 2024 (13.3%). Next in line was Florida, with 12.6% of visits. For Louisiana-based Texas Roadhouse, on the other hand, Texas was at the center of it all – with Florida coming in a not-so-close second.
Both chains, however, share some major markets – including Ohio (about six percent of visits to each chain) and Pennsylvania (about five percent of visits to each chain) – showing that many regional markets have plenty of room for high-quality, affordable steakhouses.
And a look at the demographic profiles of Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse’s trade areas shows that like other successful chains, both brands appeal to a wide range of audience segments. The eateries’ captured markets boast higher-than-average shares of very different suburban segments – from wealthy and upper-middle-class suburban families to suburban boomers and residents of blue collar suburbs.
Full-service restaurants still face significant hurdles in 2024 – from rising costs to discretionary spending cutbacks. The 2024 consumer prioritizes value and convenience, making it difficult for traditional sit-down eateries to compete. But the continued success of Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse proves that even in today’s difficult environment, FSR chains that succeed in providing affordable, high quality offerings can thrive.
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This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
About the Mall Index: The Index analyzes data from 100 top-tier indoor malls, 100 open-air shopping centers (not including outlet malls) and 100 outlet malls across the country, in both urban and suburban areas. Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the country.
It was an amazing summer for malls, with August proving an especially strong month across all three mall categories – indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls. Between huge blockbuster summer releases, rising consumer confidence, and favorable weather, malls drew bigger crowds than they did last year. The week of August 12th saw YoY visit boosts of 5.6% for indoor malls, 5.8% for open-air centers, and 2.8% for outlet malls. (Outlet malls saw a more impressive YoY boost of 5.4% during the week of August 5th).
As the summer wound down and families settled into back-to-school routines, mall traffic leveled off – with weekly YoY visits ranging from -2.9% to 2.2% in September. But September’s relative quiet won’t last long. Mall traffic is expected to ramp up again in October as early holiday promotions begin to draw crowds, as both retailers and consumers gear up for this year’s shorter holiday shopping season — just 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
September’s relative quiet notwithstanding, the first Monday of the month – Labor Day – is always a busy one for retailers, and this year was no different. Eager crowds converged on malls during the holiday to take advantage of special sales and enjoy a day of retail therapy.
Compared to the average year-to-date Monday, indoor malls saw a 61.5% increase in foot traffic on Labor Day, while open-air shopping centers saw a 34.1% rise. But it was outlet malls that really hit it out of the park with a remarkable 110.7% boost. Outlet malls often lead during holiday weekends, as shoppers take advantage of their time off for an extended excursion.
What do malls’ 2024 performance thus far tell us about what they can expect this holiday season?
If the rest of the year is any indication, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers are poised for a robust holiday season, having experienced YoY visit growth during every quarter of the year so far. And while outlet mall visits have largely remained aligned with 2023 levels, they are traditionally strong performers during the holidays – so a solid season is still expected for them as well.
Indeed, in past years, outlet malls have proven to be major holiday shopping destinations. Comparing weekly visits to malls in 2022 and 2023 to each year’s weekly visit average shows significant surges in November and December, with outlet malls seeing the most pronounced spikes.
During the week before Christmas in 2023, for example, outlet malls saw visits soar 79.3%, compared to 72.8% for indoor malls and 47.8% for open-air shopping centers. And on Black Friday outlet malls were the clear winners – with a 59.3% visit spike compared to 36.9% for indoor malls and just 18.2% for open-air centers.
This year is expected to follow suit, with all three mall categories likely to see heavy traffic during the peak holiday weeks—and outlet malls expected to shine especially bright as shoppers go the extra mile to seek out the best deals.
The holiday season not only boosts mall traffic but also shifts consumer behavior. Data from the past two years shows that malls’ average dwell times tend to increase during the all-important final quarter. In both 2022 and 2023, indoor and outlet malls saw average Q4 visit durations rise by about a minute compared to the rest of the year. Though a one-minute increase might appear minor, even a small shift in the overall average is significant given the millions of visits that take place during this period.
This trend highlights a shift in consumer behavior during the holidays, as visitors spend more time strolling through malls to snag special deals and seek out ideal gifts for loved ones. Interestingly, open-air shopping centers, which also saw smaller holiday visit peaks, did not show the same shift in dwell time – suggesting that visitor interaction with these centers during the holidays is more in line with that observed throughout the rest of the year.
As October unfolds, and malls begin to fill with holiday scents, music, decor, and promotions, the sector appears well-positioned for a strong holiday season. And this optimism is even further bolstered by predictions of increased consumer spending in the months ahead.
Will malls meet these high expectations during the upcoming season? Follow our blog at Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Albertsons Companies is one of the largest grocery holding companies in the U.S., operating over a dozen regional grocery banners and serving millions of shoppers across the country.
With such a broad presence, the brand caters to a highly diverse customer base – but some overall trends can be observed on a nationwide scale. We took a closer look at the overall visitation patterns the brand experienced in Q3 2024 and dove into the demographics of some of its largest markets.
Year over year (YoY), Q3 2024 visits to Albertsons’ banners dropped 1.4% compared to the equivalent period of 2023, possibly reflecting the ongoing financial strain consumers face amid rising grocery prices. Despite this, visits to the company’s chains were significantly higher than pre-pandemic, with Q3 2024 visits up by 10.8% compared to 2019.
Analyzing quarterly visits to Albertsons’ banners relative to a Q1 2019 baseline further highlights the chain’s firm long-term positioning. After dropping during the pandemic, visits increased steadily through Q4 2022 – and have held steady since, despite the challenges facing traditional grocery stores over the past two years. This indicates that even in the face of the growing competition posed by online and value grocers, Albertsons has succeeded in holding onto gains and maintaining its standing within the sector.
While major holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas are known for driving grocery visits, other key dates also spark significant foot traffic across Albertsons’ banners. For instance, during the week of July 1, 2024, visits to the company’s portfolio spiked by 14.1% compared to the year-to-date (YTD) weekly visit average, as customers flocked to stores for July 4th weekend supplies.
Mother’s Day also drove significant foot traffic, with visits during the week of May 6, 2024 rising 10.8% above the YTD average. So with Halloween, Turkey Wednesday, and Christmas just around the corner, Albertsons appears poised to enjoy a busy holiday season.
Albertsons’ extensive reach means that it attracts a broad spectrum of consumers, but overall, the company tends to over-index for wealthier and suburban markets.
Using the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset to analyze Albertsons' trade areas reveals that, on a nationwide level, the company’s captured market has higher shares of wealthy and suburban consumer segments than its potential one. (A business’ potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area weighted according to the size of its population. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain or venue in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base).
During the first eight months of 2024, for example, the share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” in Albertsons’ captured market stood at 13.7%, higher than the company’s potential market share of 10.7%. This suggests that from within the overall trade areas served by Albertsons, the chain is especially successful at attracting this affluent demographic.
On the flip side, consumer groups like “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” were underrepresented in Albertsons’ captured market compared to its potential one. This signals potential growth opportunities for Albertsons, as they could expand their appeal to younger, city-based segments.
Albertsons continues to offer something for everyone, enjoying visit boosts offered by special calendar days and growing its foot traffic relative to pre-pandemic.
For the latest data-driven grocery insights, visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
It’s been quite a year for coffee and beverage chains. Heading into the year, we thought the category would see strong visitation trends due to store expansion, return-to-work, menu innovation, migration, and new approaches to promotional strategies. By and large, that has played out, with mid-single-digit visitation growth on a year-over-year basis (excluding January, which was negatively impacted by inclement weather across much of the country, and April, which was impacted by a calendar shift that resulted in four weekends this year versus five in the year-ago period).
Of course, the category has been much more nuanced. Category-leader Starbucks has seen visits moderate, which played a part in one of the more notable leadership changes in the restaurant industry history. However, as we’ve discussed over the past several years, the shift to drive-thru focused coffee and beverage chains has accounted for much of the growth. Below, we’ve presented visits per location for eight of the leading coffee and beverage chains. Drive-thru chains like Dutch Bros., Scooter’s Coffee, 7 Brew Coffee, and Biggby Coffee all remain well above their pre-pandemic visit per location trends, even as they continue to aggressively expand unit openings. On the other hand, traditional players like Starbucks, Dunkin’, Tim Hortons, and Caribou Coffee have all seen visit per location declines the past several years.
The success of these emergent competitors will likely result in further changes across Starbucks and other legacy coffee chains. New Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol has already made it clear that, going forward, Starbucks stores will have “a clear distinction between “to-go” and “for-here” service”, and we suspect other chains will follow suit.
For fashion-focused consumers, there’s never been more choices available to shop. While luxury brands and retailers are still viewed as the trend setters, there are many brands in the mid-tier luxury market gaining traction. At a time when perceived value is paramount to shopper decision-making, brands that provide a great experience and on-trend styles that won’t break a budget are winning visits.
Product knowledge, recommendations and styling tips can all be accessed in the digital and social world, which gives smaller brands a fighting chance at connecting with shoppers who may not have stores located near them. Those brands whose social presence also coincides with a physical shopping experience, they’re able to build a cult-like following.
Accessories is a market that’s even further fragmented when it comes to the number of consumer choices, specifically in areas like handbags. Brands that have found their niche in the mid-tier market, like Clare V. and Stoney Clover Lane, have been able to hedge against the headwinds facing most discretionary brands. Although each brand has a handful of locations in comparison to accessory behemoths, their unique selection, brand storytelling and ability to assimilate to local environments have helped them to garner quite the following.
In comparing both brands to other apparel and accessories sectors, they have outperformed the other areas handily throughout 2024. Certainly fashion is very cyclical; one day, a brand is hot, and within a few weeks the craze might be over. However, both of these brands have been around since before the pandemic and continued to climb.
Looking further into Stoney Clover Lane, the brand is known for its colorful nylon pouches, purses and luggage that consumers can customize with a broad assortment of patches. The brand has also had licensing partnerships with brands such as American Girl and Disney.
Its physical retail presence combines experiences and an expansive assortment where consumers can customize their bags in store with patches and also attend local events. The brand has the highest percentage of weekend visits compared to the competitive set, and it’s clear that it’s a destination retailer for visitors.
Stoney Clover Lane’s Nashville outpost, located in the popular 12 South neighborhood, offers the product customization as well as a performance stage to infuse some of the local culture into the store. Looking at the visitor journey for this location, there is a high level of cross visitation to hotels and restaurants, indicating that this store may serve as a destination for out-of-town travelers who want to shop the location. Placer’s Trade Area feature corroborates this, as there is a high concentration of visits from other Southern cities including Atlanta, Birmingham, Dallas and Miami.
Clare V. blends the iconic styles of Los Angeles and Paris into an accessories brand that feels inherently cool. Its retail locations feel like an art museum blended with your best friend’s closet and each store location incorporates the local feel of the neighborhood it inhabits, including iconic locations like the Brentwood Country Mart in Los Angeles.
Clare V.’s Chicago shop draws a more local crowd, with a high level of cross-vistation to and from home as well as transportation services. Other neighborhood shops, restaurants and venues like Wrigley Field also have high levels of cross-visitation for visitors to Clare V.. By entrenching itself into the local look and feel of the neighborhoods it occupies, this national brand still feels like a well kept secret for those passing by. In comparing the trade area of the Chicago location in 2024 and 2023, the brand has been able to expand its reach further in Western Chicago Suburbs this year.
It’s been about a month since Labor Day, so let’s take a look and see how return-to-office (RTO) has been faring year-to-date. A majority of states saw fairly sizable bumps in year-over-year office traffic at the beginning of the year. The return in the state of Washington was particularly pronounced in the first four months of the year, with a 40% increase in January 2024 compared to January 2023.
Texas saw a bit of a decrease in May, June, and August. Overall, Houston and Dallas account for more of the office visits, followed by Austin.
Houston drove a decrease in office visits in the months of May, June, and August, while office visits were largely flat in September, with the exception of Austin, which showed a decline compared to the prior year.
There are multiple reasons potentially driving some of the decreases in Houston. The devastation of Hurricane Harvey in 2017 resulted in a long recovery. Many large companies along the I-10 chose to reduce their office footprint. However, per Avison Young, vacancy rates are lower at trophy assets.
Interestingly, those commuting 10-25 miles away have a lower RTO rate than those living 0-5 miles away, 5-10 miles away, or 25+ miles away. The first two make sense as we generally see higher RTO rates among those living within a closer commuting distance.
Dallas sees a similar pattern, though those who live within 5 miles have returned to office at a considerably higher rate at 85% than those farther afield.
One of the more intriguing patterns we are seeing is in Austin, Texas. Here, the RTO rate is actually higher the longer the commute. This seems rather counterintuitive, as in most locations, highest RTO rates are found the closer one lives to the office. New York is more typical, as we see that people are more likely to come into the office the closer they live.
Austin may, in fact, be a victim of its own success. Per Placer’s Migration Dashboard, its population has skyrocketed in the past few years. With more demand comes higher prices, and as a result, people are forced to move farther out in their quest for homes or more land. On the other hand, Austin traffic is not nearly as bad as some major cities like Los Angeles or New York, so living 25+ miles may not be as daunting a prospect when it comes to commuting.
Another huge factor? The move from California to Austin, Texas for Tesla's HQ means that it is now Austin’s largest employer, surpassing H-E-B, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has made it clear that he expects his employees to fully return to office. Both visits and visitors to Giga, Texas have exploded.
Last year ended on a high note for many retailers, with cooling inflation and rebounding consumer confidence contributing to a robust holiday season. Still, 2023 was a year of headwinds for the sector, as consumers traded down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences.
In the midst of these challenges, some segments thrived. Continued prioritization of health and wellness by consumers drove strong visit growth for the Fitness and Beauty & Self Care segments – which emerged as 2023 winners and enjoyed positive foot traffic growth in Q4. At the same time, price consciousness drove foot traffic to Discount & Dollar Stores and Superstores, both of which made inroads into the affordable grocery space during the year.
The Grocery category, too, saw a 4.3% jump in visits last year compared to 2022, as well as a slight uptick in Q4 visits. And even the discretionary Dining sector held its own, with a 2.1% year-over-year (YoY) annual increase in foot traffic, and a Q4 quarterly visit gap of just 1.8%.
Fitness had a particularly strong 2023, buoyed by consumers’ sustained interest in self-care and wellness. Since the pandemic, gym memberships have graduated from a discretionary expense to something of a necessity – an important investment in health and wellbeing. The category has also likely continued to benefit from the post-COVID craving for experiences.
And quarterly data shows that the Fitness segment is positively flourishing. Throughout most of Q4 2023, Fitness venues experienced YoY weekly visit growth ranging from 8.8% to 12.2%. (The unusual visit spike and dip during the last two weeks of the quarter are due to calendar discrepancies: The week of December 18th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 19th, 2022, which included Christmas Day – while the week of December 25th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 26th, 2022, which did not).
Drilling down into the data for several leading fitness chains shows that there’s plenty of success to go around. Crunch Fitness – ranked by Entrepreneur as 2024’s top fitness franchise – led the pack with a remarkable 28.2% YoY annual increase in visits, partly fueled by the steady expansion of its fleet. And while other value gyms like Planet Fitness also saw robust visit growth, the boost wasn’t limited to budget options. Given the Fitness sector’s already-impressive 2022 performance, the category’s strong YoY showing is especially noteworthy.
Beauty & Self Care was another category to benefit from 2023’s obsession with wellness – as well as the “lipstick effect”, which sees consumers treating themselves to fun, affordable luxuries when money’s tight. Driven in part by the evolving preferences of Gen Z consumers, cosmetics leaders have embraced wellness-focused approaches to cosmetics that prioritize self-care and self-expression. This strategy continues to prove successful: Throughout Q4 2023, Beauty & Self Care chains saw steady YoY weekly visit growth, especially in November and early December – perhaps highlighting Beauty’s growing role in the holiday shopping frenzy.
One brand leading the cosmetics pack in 2023 was Ulta Beauty – which drew growing crowds with its diverse product selection. Everybody loves makeup, and Ulta makes sure to have something for everyone – from discount fare to more upscale products. Buff City Soap, which now pairs its signature offerings with experiential vibes at some 270 locations across 33 states, also experienced YoY annual visit growth of 14.7%. And Bath & Body Works, which made the Wall Street Journal’s list of best-managed companies for 2023, also saw visit strength, with an overall increase in annual foot traffic, even as Q4 visits saw a slight decline.
If wellness was a key retail buzzword in 2023, value was an equally discussed topic. And Discount & Dollar Stores – ideal destinations for cash-strapped consumers seeking bargain merchandise – made the most of this opportunity. Shoppers frequented these chains year-round for everything from groceries to home goods, propelling the category firmly into the mainstream.
And in Q4 2023, shoppers flocked to discount chains in droves to snag food items, stocking stuffers, and other holiday fare – fueling near-uniform positive YoY foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. The week of October 30th seems to have kicked off the Discount & Dollar holiday shopping season, perhaps showcasing the segment’s growing role as a Halloween candy and costume hotspot.
Every discount chain is somewhat different – and the success of the various Discount & Dollar chains can be attributed to a range of factors. Dollar Tree and Dollar General likely benefited from the broadening and diversification of their grocery selections – while Ollie’s (“Get Good Stuff Cheap!”) solidified its position as a place to find relatively upscale items at a bargain. All three chains – and particularly Dollar General and Ollie’s – also grew their footprints over the past year. Family Dollar (also owned by Dollar Tree) also came out ahead on an annual basis – despite the comparison to a strong 2022.
Of all the Discount & Dollar chains, Five Below saw the biggest surge in foot traffic, partly as a result of its increasing store count. But the retailer’s offerings – affordable toys, party supplies, and other fun splurges – also appear to have been tailor-made for 2023’s retail vibe.
During the fourth quarter of the year, Superstores saw a slight YoY increase in visits – including during the all-important week of Black Friday, beginning on November 20th. (This week was compared with the week of November 21st, 2022, which also included Black Friday). Like Discount & Dollar chains, Superstores saw an appreciable YoY visit uptick during the week of Halloween.
On an annual basis, Superstore mainstays Walmart and Target experienced visit increases of 2.8% and 4.7%, respectively. But while all the major category players enjoyed a successful year, membership warehouse chains’ YoY visit numbers were especially strong. As perfect venues for mission-driven shopping expeditions, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s likely drew shoppers eager to load up on both inexpensive gifts and essentials.
The traditional Grocery sector also held its own during Q4 2023. Notably, grocery stores saw positive visit growth for most weeks of November and December, a period encompassing the critical Turkey Wednesday milestone – no small feat given the disruptions experienced by the category.
Unsurprisingly, it was discount grocery chains that saw some of the greatest YoY visit growth, as shoppers – including higher-income segments – sought to counter inflation with lower-priced food-at-home alternatives. Whether through opportunistic buying models, private label merchandising, or no-frills customer experiences, value supermarkets proved once again that even quality specialty items don’t have to carry high price tags.
Eating out can be expensive – and when money’s tight, restaurants and other discretionary categories are often first to feel the crunch. But the Dining category seems to have emerged from 2023 relatively unscathed, with overall yearly visits up 2.1% compared to 2022 despite the modest YoY weekly visit gaps in Q4 2023. And given the myriad challenges out-of-home eateries had to contend with in 2023 – from inflation to labor shortages – even the minor weekly gaps are quite an attainment. (As noted, the last two weeks of the quarter reflect calendar discrepancies).
Foot traffic data shows that dining success could be found across sub-categories. Wingstop, Shake Shack, and Jersey Mike’s Subs rocked Fast Casual and QSR, with annual YoY visit growth ranging from 11.8% to 20.3%, partly fueled by the chains’ growing footprints. Full-Service Restaurants also had their bright spots, including all-you-can-eat buffet star Golden Corral and two steak venues: Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse.
And in the Coffee, Breakfast, and Bakeries space, Playa Bowls led the charge. The superfruit bowl chain’s affordable, wellness-oriented treats seem to have been created with 2023 in mind – and during the year Playa Bowls expanded its fleet while also seeing double-digit increases in comparable store sales. Steadily expanding Biggby Coffee and Dutch Bros. Coffee also saw significant YoY foot traffic growth.
New year, new retail opportunities. And though 2023 is firmly in the rearview mirror, the economic headwinds that characterized much of the year have yet to fully dissipate. But every challenge also brings with it new opportunities, and many retailers are adapting to meet their customers' changing wants and needs.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence for 10 brands poised to succeed in 2024. Some, like low-cost apparel and home furnishing stores, are benefitting from consumer trade-down. Others are expanding into rural or suburban areas to meet customers where they are. Read on for some of 2024’s retail winners.
Until around four years ago, New Balance sneakers were commonly seen on the feet of suburban dads – not exactly a recipe for high fashion. But all that began to change in 2019 when the company began collaborating with Teddy Santis, who eventually became New Balance’s creative director. Since then, the brand’s popularity has surged among Gen Z and X and is now one of the fastest-growing sneaker companies in the industry, despite the increasing competition in sneaker space. In 2023, foot traffic to New Balance stores grew 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) and the brand has firmly established itself as ultimate retro cool.
Diving into the demographics of New Balance stores’ captured market trade area reveals the success of the chain’s rebranding. In 2023, New Balance’s trade area included larger shares of “Ultra Wealthy Families,” “Young Professionals,” and “Educated Urbanites” than the average shoe store’s trade area – highlighting New Balance’s successful reinvention as a brand for the young and hip.
The home improvement space is dominated by Lowe’s and Home Depot – but Harbor Freight Tools is quickly making a name for itself as a go-to destination for affordable tools and supplies.
Over the past few years, Harbor Freight Tools has expanded rapidly, with many of its new stores opening in smaller towns and cities. And the expansion appears to be paying off, with visits up YoY during every month of 2023. And although the chain is now operating with a significantly larger store fleet, the average number of visits per venue has generally increased – indicating that the company is expanding into markets where it is meeting a ready demand.
Over a decade after Mackelmore dropped his smash hit “Thrift Shop” in 2012, second-hand stores are still enjoying their time in the limelight. Shoppers, driven by a desire to reduce waste, find unique styles, and to save a few dollars at the till, continue to flock to thrift stores. And Winmark Corporation, which operates five secondhand goods chains – including apparel brands Plato’s Closet (young adult clothes), Once Upon a Child (children's clothes and toys), and Style Encore (women's clothing) – has benefited from the strong demand. Visits to the three Winmark clothing banners increased an average of 5.3% YoY in 2023.
The median household income (HHI) in the trade areas of Winmark’s apparel chains tends to be lower than the median HHI in the wider apparel category – so budget-conscious consumers are driving at least some of the company’s growth. With more consumers looking for ways to cut back on spending in 2024, the demand for second-hand clothes is expected to grow even further – and Winmark is likely to continue reaping the benefits.
HomeGoods, a treasure hunter's dream, is the discount home furnishing retailer owned by off-price retail giant TJX Companies. The chain, which operates over 900 brick-and-mortar stores, recently closed its e-commerce platform to focus on its physical locations – where foot traffic grew 6.0% between 2023 and 2022.
HomeGoods carries kitchen and home decor items along with furniture, and may be benefiting from the relative strength of the houseware segment, driven in part by an increase in at-home entertainment. And in a surprising twist, this low-cost retailer attracts more affluent visitors than visitors to the home furnishing segment overall. The median household income (HHI) in HomeGoods’ trade area stood at $84.7K/year compared to a $78.5K median HHI in the trade area of the average home furnishing chain. As economic uncertainty and the resumption of student loan payments impact consumers, wealthier shoppers seeking a budget-friendly home refresh are likely to continue choosing HomeGoods over pricier alternatives.
Florida-based Bealls, Inc., which got its start as a small town five-and-dime in 1915 in Bradenton, Florida, now operates over 600 stores across the country. The company, which saw an impressive 9.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, recently consolidated its two largest banners – Burkes Outlet and Bealls Outlet – under the Bealls name.
One reason for Bealls’ success could be its appeal to rural consumers. Over the past five years, the share of households falling into Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Rural Average Income” segment has steadily increased, growing from 12.6% in 2019 to 15.1% in 2023. With rural shoppers continuing to command ever-more attention from retailers, the increase in visits from this segment bodes well for Bealls in 2024.
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet was built for this economy. The chain saw a 13.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, thanks in part to its popularity among a wide array of budget-conscious consumers. Ollie’s has found success with rural shoppers while maintaining its appeal among value-oriented suburban segments – and the chain’s diverse audience base seems to be setting it apart from other discount retailers.
A closer look at the chain’s captured market data, layered with the Spatial.ai: Personalive dataset, reveals that Ollie’s trade area includes larger shares of the “Blue Collar Suburbs” and “Suburban Boomer” segments when compared to the wider Discount & Dollar Stores category. As the chain plots its expansion, focusing on suburban and rural areas may help Ollie’s meet its customers where they are.
Trader Joe’s has managed to do what few stores can. The company does not invest in marketing, has no online shopping options, and loyalty programs? Forget about it. But despite this unusual approach to running a business, the California native has enjoyed consistent success over the years, with a 12.4% YoY increase in visits in 2023.
Trader Joe’s is particularly popular among younger shoppers, perhaps thanks to the company’s focus on sustainability and social responsibility – as well as its famously low prices. Analyzing the chain’s trade area using the AGS: Panorama dataset reveals that Trader Joe’s attracts more “Emerging Leaders” and “Young Coastal Technocrats” (segments that describe highly educated young professionals) than the average grocery chain. With Gen Z particularly concerned about putting their money where their mouth is, Trader Joe’s is likely to sustain its momentum in 2024 and beyond.
Convenience stores are growing up and evolving into bona-fide dining destinations. And Foxtrot, a Chicago-based chain with 29 stores across Texas, Illinois, Washington, Maryland, and Virginia, is one c-store redefining what a convenience store can be. The chain, which announced a merger with Dom’s Kitchen in November 2023, offers an upscale convenience store experience and is particularly known for including local brands in its product assortment as well as its excellent wine curation and dining options.
Visitors to the chain were significantly more likely to fall into AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset’s “Wine Drinker” or “Nutritionally Aware” segments than visitors to nearby convenience stores. The company plans to ramp up store openings, particularly in the suburbs, where convenience and a good bottle of wine might just find the perfect home as a welcome distraction from the daily grind.
Jersey Mike’s is one of the fastest-growing franchise dining chains in the country, operating over 2,500 locations in all 50 states. The sandwich chain has seen its popularity take off over the past few years, with 2023 visits up 14.1% YoY and plans to open 350 new stores in 2024.
The company has long prioritized affluent class suburban customers – and visitation data layered with the Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that Jersey Mike’s has indeed succeeded in attracting this audience. The percentage of “Booming with Confidence” and “Flourishing Families” (both affluent segments) in Jersey Mike’s trade area was larger than in the trade areas of the average sub sandwich chain. As Jersey Mike’s continues its expansion, focusing on suburban areas may continue to serve the chain well.
The East Coast may not be the first region that pops to mind when thinking about tropical smoothies – but New Jersey-based Playa Bowls is making it work. The company was founded by avid surf enthusiasts determined to bring the flavors of their favorite surfing towns stateside.
Playa Bowls has enjoyed strong visit numbers in 2023, with overall visits up 23.0% and average visits per venue up 17.1% YoY – and part of the chain’s success may be driven by its ability to draw wealthier customers to its stores. The Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that the “Power Elite” segment is overrepresented in the company’s trade areas: The share of households falling into that segment from Playa Bowl’s captured market exceeded their share in the company’s potential market. As the chain continues expanding its domestic footprint, it seems to have found its niche among a wealthy customer base.
The past year saw a wide range of challenges facing brick-and-mortar retailers as economic fears continued to shake consumer confidence. But there are plenty of bright spots as the new year gets underway. These ten brands prove that the retail world never stands still, and that the next opportunity is just around the corner.
Sports leagues like the NBA, NFL, and MLB boast billion-dollar revenues – and the venues where these games unfold hold significant commercial potential in their own rights. Many stadiums host concerts and other shows in addition to regularly held sporting matches and can accommodate tens of thousands of spectators at once – creating massive retail, dining, and advertisement opportunities.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence metrics for some of the biggest stadiums across the country to reveal the commercial potential of these venues beyond simple ticketing revenue. Where do visitors of various stadiums like to shop? Do specific sporting and cultural events impact the nearby restaurant scene differently? How can stadium operators, local businesses, and advertisers tailor their offerings to a stadium’s particular audience and make the most of the stadium and the space throughout the year?
We take a closer look below.
The three major sports leagues – the National Basketball League (NBA), Major League Baseball (MLB), and the National Football League (NFL) – play at different points of the year, and the number of games each league holds during the season also varies.
MLB leads in game frequency, with each team playing 162 games during the regular season, which runs approximately from April through September. Basketball season is also around six months – roughly from mid-October to mid-April – but each NBA team plays only 82 games a season. And the NFL has both the shortest season – 18 weeks running from early September to early January (with the pre-season starting in August) – and the fewest number of matches per team. Understanding the monthly visitation patterns for the various types of stadiums can help advertisers, stadium operators, and other stakeholders ensure that they are leveraging the full potential of the venue throughout the year.
Unsurprisingly, the sports arenas serving the different leagues see visit spikes during their leagues’ respective season. But comparing visit numbers throughout the year to the average monthly visit numbers for each category in 2023 reveals that the relative visit increases and decreases during the on- and off-season vary for each type of stadium.
MLB stadiums display the steadiest visit strength during the on-season – perhaps due to MLB’s packed game schedule. MLB tickets also tend to be relatively affordable compared to tickets to pro football or basketball matches, which may also contribute to MLB’s consistently strong visit numbers throughout the season. During the MLB off-season, baseball fields – which tend to be uncovered – are relatively empty.
The seasonal visit spike to NBA arenas is less steady. The beginning and end of the season see strong peaks, and visits slow down slightly during the mid-season months of January and February. Visits then drop during the off-season spring and summer, but the off-season visit dip is not as low as it is for MLB fields – perhaps because the NBA arenas’ indoor nature make them suitable locations for concerts and other non-basketball events.
Meanwhile, NFL stadiums see the least dramatic drop in visits during the NFL off-season, as these venues’ enormous size also make them the ideal location for concerts and other cultural events that draw large crowds. These arenas’ strong almost year-round visitation numbers mean that sponsors and advertisers looking to expand beyond sports fans to reach a diverse audience may have the most success with these venues.
Although MLB offers the most budget-friendly outing, combining STI: Popstats demographic metrics with trade area data reveals that MLB stadium visitors reside in higher-income areas when compared with visitors to NBA or NFL stadiums.
Baseball fans tend to be older than fans of the other sports, which could partially explain MLB stadium visitors’ higher household income (HHI). The combination of lower ticket prices, higher median HHI among fans, and many games per season offers baseball stadiums significant opportunities to engage effectively with their fan bases.
But while NBA and NFL stadium attendees may not come from as high-income areas as do MLB stadium visitors, fans of live basketball and football still reside in trade areas with a higher HHI compared to the nationwide median. So by leveraging stadium space, advertisers and other stakeholders can reach tens of thousands of relatively high-income consumers easily and effectively.
Sports fans are known to be passionate, engaged, and willing to spend money on their team – but stadium visitors also shop for non-sports related goods and services. Retailers and advertisers can draw on location analytics to uncover the consumer preferences of stadium visitors and tailor campaigns, sponsorships, and collaborations accordingly.
Visitation data to the top five most visited MLB stadiums during 2023 showed differences between the apparel and sporting goods shopping preferences of the various stadiums’ attendees. While 39.4% of visitors to Truist Park also visited DICK’s in 2023, only 30.8% of Yankee Stadium visitors stopped by the sporting goods retailer in the same period. Similarly, while 29.9% of visitors to Yankee Stadium frequented Kohl’s, that percentage jumped to 47.3% for Busch Stadium visitors.
Harnessing location intelligence to see the consumer preferences of a stadium’s visitor base can help retailers, stadium operators, and even team managers choose partnerships and merchandising agreements that will yield the most effective results.
Sports and snacks go hand in hand – what would a baseball game be without a hot dog or peanuts? But while every stadium likely provides a similar core of traditional game day eats, each venue also offers a unique set of dining options, both on- and off-premise. And by leveraging location analytics to gain visibility into stadium-goers dining habits, stadium operators and local food businesses can understand how to best serve each arena’s audience.
Mapping where stadium visitors dine before and after games can help stakeholders in the stadium industry reach more fans.
The chart below shows the share of visitors coming to a stadium from a dining venue (on the x-axis) or going to a dining venue after visiting the stadium (on the y-axis). The data reveals a correlation between pre-stadium dining and post-stadium dining – stadiums where many guests visit dining venues before the stadium also tend to have a large share of guests going to dining venues after the event. For example, the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, saw large shares of visitors grabbing a bite to eat on their journey to or from the stadium, while the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland saw low rates of pre- and post stadium dining engagement.
These trends present opportunities for both local businesses and stadium stakeholders. For example, venues with high dining engagement can explore partnerships with local restaurants, while those with lower rates can build out their in-house dining options for hungry sports fans.
Stadiums looking to enhance their food offerings – or local entrepreneurs thinking of opening a restaurant near a stadium – can also get inspired by stadium visitors’ dining preferences. For example, psychographic data taken from the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals that visitors to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey have a much stronger preference for Asian cuisine compared to New Jersey residents overall. With that knowledge, the stadium can enhance the visitor experience by expanding its Asian food offerings.
On the other hand, MetLife Stadium goers seem much less partial to Brewery fare than average New Jerseyans, so the stadium operators and restaurateurs may want to avoid offering too many Brewery-themed dining options. Stadium stakeholders can reserve the craft beers for Caesars Stadium, M&T Bank Stadium, and Soldier Field Stadiums, where visitors seem to enjoy artisanal brews more than the average resident in Louisiana, Maryland, and Illinois, respectively.
All of the stadiums analyzed exhibited unique visitor dining tastes, a reminder that no customer or fan base is alike. Aligning on- or off-site dining options with offerings that align with a given customer base’s preferences can improve overall visitor satisfaction and boost revenues.
Zooming in to look at consumer behavior around individual events reveals further variability in dining preferences even among visitors to the same stadium, with different types of events driving distinct dining behaviors.
State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, is home to the Arizona Cardinals. The stadium hosted the 2023 Super Bowl, but the NFL stadium also acts as a concert venue for acts ranging from Taylor Swift to Metallica. And location intelligence reveals that the dining preferences of stadium visitors vary based on the events held at the venue.
During the Super Bowl, sports bars such as Yard House and Buffalo Wild Wings saw the largest increase in visits compared to the chains’ daily average. A month later, attendees at Taylor Swift's concert gave fried-chicken leader Raising Cane’s a significant boost.
Local restaurants can leverage location analytics to see what types of events are popular with their visitor base and craft collaborations and advertising campaigns that resonate effectively with their patrons.
Sports stadiums and arenas are not just spaces for sports and music enthusiasts to gather; they also offer significant commercial opportunities for the surrounding communities. Stadium operators and local businesses can fine-tune their offerings by utilizing location analytics to better connect with their visitor bases and uncover new retail opportunities.
