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Fashion is cyclical, and often, if you hold onto something long enough, it just might come back into style. Hoarders can rejoice, as new generations are now seeking out biker boots, pedal pushers, Fendi baguettes, and satin slip dresses. Today’s teens are also drawn to brands their parents might have worn, like surfer favorites Stussy, Roxy, and O’Neill. Miu Miu, a current favorite in the fashion world despite a slight slowdown in luxury, even sent board shorts down their runway. Miu Miu has consistently been on-trend over the past few years, from micro miniskirts to last month’s playful twist on athleisure with foot warmers and leg warmers.
Other notable ‘90s throwbacks include Hypercolor shirts—T-shirts that change color with body heat, like when a handprint is left behind. For the colder months, surf fashion is evolving into styles suited for cozy bonfire nights at the beach. "Shackets" (shirt jackets) in soft flannels and plaids are trending, with stores like Faherty and Marine Layer offering pieces reminiscent of the fashion seen in The O.C.
From a retail perspective, popular '90s and 2000s brands like Mango and True Religion are making a strong return to brick-and-mortar. Mango, a Spanish fast-fashion brand similar to Zara, first entered the U.S. in the 2000s but later withdrew in 2015. Now, it’s back with a U.S.-focused strategy, opening a flagship store at 711 Fifth Avenue in New York—formerly home to iconic brands like NBC, Columbia Pictures, and Coca-Cola. Mango plans to have over 40 stores in the U.S. by the end of 2024 and 500 global stores by 2026.
In the ‘90s, pop stars like Britney Spears and Christina Aguilera made low-rise jeans with the iconic True Religion horseshoe logo a staple. Now, True Religion has returned, with Megan Thee Stallion as a spokesperson. The brand saw strong performance in spring and summer, likely boosted by back-to-school shopping in August. Although year-over-year traffic dipped slightly in September and October, we anticipate a rise in traffic with the upcoming holiday season.
Every year towards the end of October, consumers head to the shops for costumes, spooky yard decorations, candy and Halloween supplies. At the same time, many national dining chains roll out Halloween-themed limited time offers (LTOs) to lure in revelers. So what was this year’s Halloween impact on retail and dining visits? We dove into the data to find out.
Halloween may not be Black Friday, but the ghostly holiday drives significant dining and retail visit spikes of its own. Comparing daily visit patterns during the week of Halloween to previous weeks’ averages reveals Halloween’s varied impact on the different brick-and-mortar sectors.
For most retail sectors – including grocery stores, superstores, discount & dollar stores, and hobbies, gift & craft stores – holiday visits peaked on October 30th, as consumers got their Halloween supplies before the holiday. Hobbies, gift & craft stores saw the biggest visit increases, with traffic on Monday, October 28th already up 20.7% compared to the average for the previous four Mondays, as patrons sought out the perfect costume piece or yard decoration. Meanwhile, liquor stores – where visits also increased the day before Halloween – got an even bigger boost on October 31st, likely thanks to party hosts and guests grabbing last minute refreshments ahead of the night’s festivities.
Unlike in the retail space, where visits increased prior to the holiday, the Halloween-driven dining visit spike was confined to October 31st. Dining visits on Halloween were up 5.4% compared to the previous four Thursdays’ average – impressive for a category not traditionally associated with Halloween spending. This spike was likely fueled by the many Halloween-themed LTOs across the category.
Indeed, many of the major dining chains that saw double-digit visit spikes on October 31st offered Halloween-related promotions. Insomnia Cookies gave away cookies and Krispy Kreme Doughnuts offered free donuts to customers who came in wearing costumes – and visits to the two chains jumped 60.4% and 45.4%, respectively, compared to the average of the previous four Thursdays. And the promise of discounts was almost as alluring as the promise of free stuff – Chipotle offered a deeply discounted entree to any Chipotle Rewards member coming in costume, leading to a 41.5% boost in Halloween foot traffic.
Full-service restaurants also got in on the Halloween action. Denny’s customers who dined on-site donning a costume received free Halloween pancakes, helping drive a 20.5% increase in Thursday visits on October 31st. IHOP, which offered a free “Scary Face Pancake” for kids 12 and under with the purchase of an adult entree, saw its visits rise 15.5% compared to its recent Thursday average. And Applebee’s “Dollar Zombie” cocktail – available throughout the month of October – may have contributed to the 14.4% Halloween visit increase from customers looking to consume the themed drink during the holiday.
Halloween prep often requires a trip to the store – so unlike dining chains, where traffic peaked on Halloween itself, most retail sectors received the largest holiday-driven boost on October 30th. Visits to Target, Walmart, Sam’s Club, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Costco Wholesale were up on Wednesday, October 30th compared to a recent Wednesday average – but by October 31st, foot traffic was mostly back to normal (although Walmart visits were still slightly elevated).
Meanwhile, discount & dollar leaders Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Family Dollar experienced foot traffic jumps on both October 30th and October 31st – with the Halloween spikes at Dollar General and Family Dollar even surpassing the pre-Halloween boosts at those retailers. These visitation patterns indicate that consumers likely visit both superstores and dollar stores for pre-Holiday prep but are more likely to head to discount & dollar chains for last minute Halloween purchases.
While superstores and discount & dollar stores receive a significant share of Halloween-driven retail foot traffic, the biggest beneficiaries of the season appear to have been party supply stores – with Party City in the lead. Visits to the retailer began steadily increasing week-over-week in the beginning of September, with Wednesday, October 30th seeing a whopping 252.2% increase in visits compared to the average on the previous four Wednesdays.
Party City’s Halloween success indicates that, when it comes to special occasions, specialized retailers still play an important role in the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
Halloween brought consumers out to stores and restaurants, highlighting an appetite for celebrating special occasions which may bode well for the upcoming holiday season. How will the rest of Q4’s retail milestones perform?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
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Last year’s holiday shopping season was an impactful one, with many categories seeing record-breaking sales and visits. And perhaps no category benefits from Q4 peaks quite like department stores, which see major foot traffic spikes on Black Friday and in the run-up to Christmas.
So with Q4 2024 seemingly primed to be another strong season, we took a look at department store visitation patterns this year and during previous holiday seasons to see what might lie ahead for the category in the coming weeks.
The holiday shopping calendar often begins as early as October, as consumers start preparing for Halloween before shifting their focus to Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Christmas. This time of year tends to be one of the busiest for many retailers, as it encompasses a variety of shopping needs, including gifts and seasonal celebrations.
And one retail category that sees major visit increases every holiday season is department stores. Chains like Nordstrom, Macy’s, and Bloomingdale’s experience substantial spikes in visits throughout Q4 as shoppers flock to their locations to take advantage of sales and find gifts for their loved ones.
And though consumers’ holiday shopping behavior varies somewhat each year, analyzing weekly fluctuations in visits to department stores reveals some predictable patterns. Every year, visits to department stores see modest increases during major retail events like Valentine’s Day, Mother’s Day, and back-to-school shopping season – before surging during the week of Black Friday (week 47) and then again in the run-up to Christmas. During the week of last year’s Black Friday, for example, department store visits soared 65.2% above the 2023 weekly average – only to go even higher (122.8%) during the week before Christmas (week 51).
Nordstrom is one department store that seems poised to enjoy a particularly robust holiday shopping season this year. The chain, which operates more than 90 of its namesake stores, also has an off-price banner – Nordstrom Rack – with over 250 locations. And both brands have enjoyed stable visit growth since April 2024 – with quarterly YoY visits to Nordstrom and Nordstrom Rack elevated by 1.4% and 9.6%, respectively, in Q2 2024, and by 1.4% and 5.0%, respectively, in Q3 2024. By contrast, the wider department store category sustained consistent YoY visit gaps.
Drilling down deeper into weekly visit data shows that this positive trend continued into October. And while Nordstrom Rack – which is firmly in expansion mode – outperformed Nordstrom’s traditional stores through September, this trend reversed slightly in October, as the holiday season grew closer. With Black Friday just around the corner, both chains seem well positioned to continue driving visits to their respective stores.
Macy’s Inc., for its part, is doubling down on its “Bold New Chapter” – a turnaround strategy involving a significant trimming of the company’s traditional Macy’s portfolio and the addition of several Bloomingdale’s and small-format stores. In August, Macy’s announced its intention to increase to 55 the number of Macy’s locations slated for closure by the end of 2024. And though the plan’s implementation is still in early stages, foot traffic data suggests that both Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s are holding their own.
In Q2 and Q3 2024, Macy’s sustained minor YoY visit gaps – 2.8% and 3.5%, respectively – slightly outperforming the broader category. Meanwhile, Macy’s high-end Bloomingdale’s brand saw a YoY visit uptick of 1.9% in Q2, while Q3 visits remained flat compared to 2023. And given the huge monthly visit spikes both chains experience each year in November and December, Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s appear well positioned to once again experience a surge in foot traffic as the holiday season begins.
If previous years are any indication, department stores should be getting ready for significant foot traffic increases as the holidays quickly approach. Will improving consumer sentiment and cooling inflation lead to visit increases at department stores, or will consumers decide to take it easy this year?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail insights.
The holiday season is right around the corner, bringing with it some of the most impactful shopping periods of the year. We took a closer look at visit performance across major wholesale clubs and superstores – Target, Walmart, Sam’s Club, BJ’s Wholesale, and Costco – to see what their 2024 performance and past holiday season visit patterns can tell us about what to expect this Q4.
Warehouse clubs have been thriving in 2024, buoyed by price-conscious consumers eager to load up on inexpensive essentials. In Q3, quarterly visits to retail giants Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale rose 5.2% and 5.9%, respectively. And Costco, holding its place ahead of the pack, saw a foot traffic increase of 7.2%. For all three chains, the robust visit growth continued into October, with visits up 3.6% to 5.9% YoY.
Meanwhile, Target and Walmart saw respective quarterly YoY foot traffic upticks of 1.0% and 0.9% in Q3 2024. In August – the height of the back-to-school shopping season – visits to both chains increased just over 3.0% YoY. And though foot traffic to the superstore behemoths slowed in September as the summer rush abated, Target saw its visit gap narrow once again in October, while Walmart experienced a slight 0.2% increase.
Warehouse retailers have been the clear foot traffic winners this year – but digging deeper into historical data suggests that it is Target that is primed to experience the busiest holiday season of the analyzed chains.
During the week of November 20th, 2023 – the week of Turkey Wednesday and Black Friday – visits to Target soared 18.9% compared to the chain’s 2023 weekly visit average, marking the biggest pre-Thanksgiving visit spike of any of the analyzed chains.
But Target’s real visit surge came during the week of December 18th – the week before Christmas, including the all-important Super Saturday – when visits to Target surged 87.3% above the chain’s 2023 weekly visit average. This was more than double the relative increase experienced by Walmart (39.6%), Sam’s Club (32.8%), BJ’s Wholesale (32.3%), or Costco (34.1%). And with recent visits to Target on par with – or slightly above – last year’s levels, the retail giant is likely poised to win the holidays once again.
Overall, Super Saturday was a bigger milestone for Target last year than Black Friday. (On the former, visits surged 166.1% compared to a 2023 daily average, while on the latter they rose 135.3%.) But digging deeper into the data reveals significant regional differences in Target’s performance on the two major shopping days.
In some parts of the country – including several midwestern, south central, and nearby states where Black Friday has special resonance – the day after Thanksgiving drew bigger visit spikes than Super Saturday. Some markets in particular saw outsized Black Friday visit surges, including West Virginia (348.6%), Kentucky (232.3%), and Indiana (227.4%). Other markets, such as California (74.6%) and Colorado (89.5%), experienced more moderate – though still substantial – Black Friday jumps.
In contrast, visits to Target on Super Saturday were more evenly distributed across the country, with several western and sunbelt states recording substantial visit increases – including New Mexico, which saw a 200.6% jump in visits to Target on December 23, 2023 compared to the 2023 daily visit average.
With solid Q3s under their belts, Target, Walmart, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s Wholesale Club are all well-positioned to enjoy a robust holiday season this year. Will the retail giants deliver?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
A cool housing market, still-high interest rates, and other economic headwinds have weighed on the home improvement industry this year. But how did category leaders The Home Depot and Lowe’s fare in Q3 2024 – and what lies ahead for them this holiday season?
We dove into the data to find out.
Looking first at the relative positioning of Home Depot and Lowe’s within the wider home improvement sector shows that the two leaders have maintained their dominance, despite the growing popularity of smaller chains like Harbor Freight Tools and Tractor Supply Co.
In Q3 2024, Home Depot accounted for 29.4% of visits to home improvement and furnishing chains nationwide – while Lowe’s accounted for 20.7%. And diving into the data on a statewide level shows that each of the giants holds sway in a different area of the country. Home Depot drew the most visits in much of the Western United States as well as in most of New England. Lowe’s, on the other hand, led parts of the South and Midwest. And in some states, smaller chains like Menards and Ace Hardware dominated the landscape.
Given the challenges faced by the home improvement industry this year, it may come as no surprise that both Home Depot and Lowe’s sustained year-over-year (YoY) visit gaps in Q3 2024 – 3.1% and 4.1%, respectively. But digging deeper into the data suggests that the two chains may still be poised to enjoy a robust holiday season.
Unlike many other categories, visits to home improvement chains tend to peak in spring rather than during the holiday season. Still, Home Depot and Lowe’s do see visit spikes on Q4 retail milestones like Black Friday and Super Saturday. Last year, for example, Home Depot and Lowe’s drew 77.8% and 78.6% more visits, respectively, on Black Friday (Nov. 24th) than on an average day in 2023. Indeed, the big day was Home Depot’s busiest day of 2023 and Lowe’s second-busiest.
And a look at Home Depot and Lowe’s visit performance during Labor Day – another, more recent retail milestone – shows that the two chains continue to excel at attracting visits on key calendar days. On September 4th, 2023 (Labor Day last year), visits to Lowe’s were 23.8% higher than the January to October 2023 daily visit average. And this year, Lowe’s relative Labor Day spike was even more significant – 24.8%. Home Depot, too, saw a slightly more pronounced Labor Day boost this year than last. So even if overall foot traffic to the home improvement leaders remained somewhat below last year’s levels, they may be in for a busy Q4.
The home improvement industry has yet to regain its pandemic-era glory. But analyzing visit trends to category leaders shows that holiday visit spikes may help fuel a successful holiday season this year. How will Lowe’s and Home Depot perform on Black Friday?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
It’s been an eventful week for the QSR Burger category, with much of the focus on this week’s quarterly updates focusing on events that took place after Q3 2024 ended. Let’s start with McDonald’s, where an E.Coli outbreak overshadowed what was largely a positive quarter of visitation gains, where the chain had reversed the visitation declines that it saw during the driven year-over-year visitation increases through its $5 Meal Deal and Collector’s Edition promotion (below).
According to the company, the $5 Meal Deal “continued drawing customers back into our restaurants throughout the quarter, maintaining an average check north of $10 and being profitable for our franchisees.” Importantly, McDonald’s management also called out that the $5 Meal Deal is gaining traction among low-income consumers and that it “successfully [grew] traffic share with this group for the first time in over a year.” Our data indicates this as well. Over the past several months, we’ve looked at McDonald’s cross visitation trends with Aldi as a barometer of its traction with lower-income consumers. The percentage of McDonald’s visitors that also visited an Aldi had been steadily increasing through Q2 2024, but we did see a reversal of this trend in Q3 2024, suggesting that more consumers are finding value at the chain. The company remains committed to having the $5 Meal Deal on its menus until December as it works towards “sustainable guest count-led growth.”
McDonald’s E. Coli outbreak did have a negative impact on visitation trends, but these trends may be short-lived. Our data indicated a 6.5% decline in year-over-year visits nationwide on Wednesday, Oct. 25 (the day after the E. Coli outbreak investigation was announced), 10%-11% declines from Oct. 26-Oct. 28, and 7%-8% declines from Oct 29-30. It’s natural to compare this situation to Chipotle’s E. Coli outbreak in 2015, where visitation trends were severely impacted for many months. However, there are meaningful differences between McDonald’s and Chipotle’s cases. First, McDonald’s was quickly able to identify and communicate the source of the outbreak–slivered onions from a Colorado Springs facility at supplier Taylor Farms, which were immediately removed from the company’s supply chain–while also ruling out its beef patties as a source, which has helped to keep the outbreak relatively contained. Second, in addition to an E. Coli outbreak, Chipotle also faced a norovirus outbreak, calling into question the safety of the chain’s entire supply chain. These differences help to explain why we may already be seeing visitation declines inflect at McDonald’s.
McDonald’s Collector’s Edition was not the only nostalgia-driven promotion driving visits in recent weeks, as Wendy’s Krabby Patty Burger and Pineapple Under the Sea Frosty celebrating SpongeBob's 25th anniversary drove a meaningful lift in visits (below). In fact, this might be the most successful limited-time-offer promotion that we’ve seen across the QSR sector since McDonald’s Adult Happy Meal in October 2022. Importantly, this promotion innovated on existing core menu items without adding complexity. Given the strong visitation lift, we expect more nostalgia-themed promotions in the year ahead.
Last year ended on a high note for many retailers, with cooling inflation and rebounding consumer confidence contributing to a robust holiday season. Still, 2023 was a year of headwinds for the sector, as consumers traded down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences.
In the midst of these challenges, some segments thrived. Continued prioritization of health and wellness by consumers drove strong visit growth for the Fitness and Beauty & Self Care segments – which emerged as 2023 winners and enjoyed positive foot traffic growth in Q4. At the same time, price consciousness drove foot traffic to Discount & Dollar Stores and Superstores, both of which made inroads into the affordable grocery space during the year.
The Grocery category, too, saw a 4.3% jump in visits last year compared to 2022, as well as a slight uptick in Q4 visits. And even the discretionary Dining sector held its own, with a 2.1% year-over-year (YoY) annual increase in foot traffic, and a Q4 quarterly visit gap of just 1.8%.
Fitness had a particularly strong 2023, buoyed by consumers’ sustained interest in self-care and wellness. Since the pandemic, gym memberships have graduated from a discretionary expense to something of a necessity – an important investment in health and wellbeing. The category has also likely continued to benefit from the post-COVID craving for experiences.
And quarterly data shows that the Fitness segment is positively flourishing. Throughout most of Q4 2023, Fitness venues experienced YoY weekly visit growth ranging from 8.8% to 12.2%. (The unusual visit spike and dip during the last two weeks of the quarter are due to calendar discrepancies: The week of December 18th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 19th, 2022, which included Christmas Day – while the week of December 25th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 26th, 2022, which did not).
Drilling down into the data for several leading fitness chains shows that there’s plenty of success to go around. Crunch Fitness – ranked by Entrepreneur as 2024’s top fitness franchise – led the pack with a remarkable 28.2% YoY annual increase in visits, partly fueled by the steady expansion of its fleet. And while other value gyms like Planet Fitness also saw robust visit growth, the boost wasn’t limited to budget options. Given the Fitness sector’s already-impressive 2022 performance, the category’s strong YoY showing is especially noteworthy.
Beauty & Self Care was another category to benefit from 2023’s obsession with wellness – as well as the “lipstick effect”, which sees consumers treating themselves to fun, affordable luxuries when money’s tight. Driven in part by the evolving preferences of Gen Z consumers, cosmetics leaders have embraced wellness-focused approaches to cosmetics that prioritize self-care and self-expression. This strategy continues to prove successful: Throughout Q4 2023, Beauty & Self Care chains saw steady YoY weekly visit growth, especially in November and early December – perhaps highlighting Beauty’s growing role in the holiday shopping frenzy.
One brand leading the cosmetics pack in 2023 was Ulta Beauty – which drew growing crowds with its diverse product selection. Everybody loves makeup, and Ulta makes sure to have something for everyone – from discount fare to more upscale products. Buff City Soap, which now pairs its signature offerings with experiential vibes at some 270 locations across 33 states, also experienced YoY annual visit growth of 14.7%. And Bath & Body Works, which made the Wall Street Journal’s list of best-managed companies for 2023, also saw visit strength, with an overall increase in annual foot traffic, even as Q4 visits saw a slight decline.
If wellness was a key retail buzzword in 2023, value was an equally discussed topic. And Discount & Dollar Stores – ideal destinations for cash-strapped consumers seeking bargain merchandise – made the most of this opportunity. Shoppers frequented these chains year-round for everything from groceries to home goods, propelling the category firmly into the mainstream.
And in Q4 2023, shoppers flocked to discount chains in droves to snag food items, stocking stuffers, and other holiday fare – fueling near-uniform positive YoY foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. The week of October 30th seems to have kicked off the Discount & Dollar holiday shopping season, perhaps showcasing the segment’s growing role as a Halloween candy and costume hotspot.
Every discount chain is somewhat different – and the success of the various Discount & Dollar chains can be attributed to a range of factors. Dollar Tree and Dollar General likely benefited from the broadening and diversification of their grocery selections – while Ollie’s (“Get Good Stuff Cheap!”) solidified its position as a place to find relatively upscale items at a bargain. All three chains – and particularly Dollar General and Ollie’s – also grew their footprints over the past year. Family Dollar (also owned by Dollar Tree) also came out ahead on an annual basis – despite the comparison to a strong 2022.
Of all the Discount & Dollar chains, Five Below saw the biggest surge in foot traffic, partly as a result of its increasing store count. But the retailer’s offerings – affordable toys, party supplies, and other fun splurges – also appear to have been tailor-made for 2023’s retail vibe.
During the fourth quarter of the year, Superstores saw a slight YoY increase in visits – including during the all-important week of Black Friday, beginning on November 20th. (This week was compared with the week of November 21st, 2022, which also included Black Friday). Like Discount & Dollar chains, Superstores saw an appreciable YoY visit uptick during the week of Halloween.
On an annual basis, Superstore mainstays Walmart and Target experienced visit increases of 2.8% and 4.7%, respectively. But while all the major category players enjoyed a successful year, membership warehouse chains’ YoY visit numbers were especially strong. As perfect venues for mission-driven shopping expeditions, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s likely drew shoppers eager to load up on both inexpensive gifts and essentials.
The traditional Grocery sector also held its own during Q4 2023. Notably, grocery stores saw positive visit growth for most weeks of November and December, a period encompassing the critical Turkey Wednesday milestone – no small feat given the disruptions experienced by the category.
Unsurprisingly, it was discount grocery chains that saw some of the greatest YoY visit growth, as shoppers – including higher-income segments – sought to counter inflation with lower-priced food-at-home alternatives. Whether through opportunistic buying models, private label merchandising, or no-frills customer experiences, value supermarkets proved once again that even quality specialty items don’t have to carry high price tags.
Eating out can be expensive – and when money’s tight, restaurants and other discretionary categories are often first to feel the crunch. But the Dining category seems to have emerged from 2023 relatively unscathed, with overall yearly visits up 2.1% compared to 2022 despite the modest YoY weekly visit gaps in Q4 2023. And given the myriad challenges out-of-home eateries had to contend with in 2023 – from inflation to labor shortages – even the minor weekly gaps are quite an attainment. (As noted, the last two weeks of the quarter reflect calendar discrepancies).
Foot traffic data shows that dining success could be found across sub-categories. Wingstop, Shake Shack, and Jersey Mike’s Subs rocked Fast Casual and QSR, with annual YoY visit growth ranging from 11.8% to 20.3%, partly fueled by the chains’ growing footprints. Full-Service Restaurants also had their bright spots, including all-you-can-eat buffet star Golden Corral and two steak venues: Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse.
And in the Coffee, Breakfast, and Bakeries space, Playa Bowls led the charge. The superfruit bowl chain’s affordable, wellness-oriented treats seem to have been created with 2023 in mind – and during the year Playa Bowls expanded its fleet while also seeing double-digit increases in comparable store sales. Steadily expanding Biggby Coffee and Dutch Bros. Coffee also saw significant YoY foot traffic growth.
New year, new retail opportunities. And though 2023 is firmly in the rearview mirror, the economic headwinds that characterized much of the year have yet to fully dissipate. But every challenge also brings with it new opportunities, and many retailers are adapting to meet their customers' changing wants and needs.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence for 10 brands poised to succeed in 2024. Some, like low-cost apparel and home furnishing stores, are benefitting from consumer trade-down. Others are expanding into rural or suburban areas to meet customers where they are. Read on for some of 2024’s retail winners.
Until around four years ago, New Balance sneakers were commonly seen on the feet of suburban dads – not exactly a recipe for high fashion. But all that began to change in 2019 when the company began collaborating with Teddy Santis, who eventually became New Balance’s creative director. Since then, the brand’s popularity has surged among Gen Z and X and is now one of the fastest-growing sneaker companies in the industry, despite the increasing competition in sneaker space. In 2023, foot traffic to New Balance stores grew 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) and the brand has firmly established itself as ultimate retro cool.
Diving into the demographics of New Balance stores’ captured market trade area reveals the success of the chain’s rebranding. In 2023, New Balance’s trade area included larger shares of “Ultra Wealthy Families,” “Young Professionals,” and “Educated Urbanites” than the average shoe store’s trade area – highlighting New Balance’s successful reinvention as a brand for the young and hip.
The home improvement space is dominated by Lowe’s and Home Depot – but Harbor Freight Tools is quickly making a name for itself as a go-to destination for affordable tools and supplies.
Over the past few years, Harbor Freight Tools has expanded rapidly, with many of its new stores opening in smaller towns and cities. And the expansion appears to be paying off, with visits up YoY during every month of 2023. And although the chain is now operating with a significantly larger store fleet, the average number of visits per venue has generally increased – indicating that the company is expanding into markets where it is meeting a ready demand.
Over a decade after Mackelmore dropped his smash hit “Thrift Shop” in 2012, second-hand stores are still enjoying their time in the limelight. Shoppers, driven by a desire to reduce waste, find unique styles, and to save a few dollars at the till, continue to flock to thrift stores. And Winmark Corporation, which operates five secondhand goods chains – including apparel brands Plato’s Closet (young adult clothes), Once Upon a Child (children's clothes and toys), and Style Encore (women's clothing) – has benefited from the strong demand. Visits to the three Winmark clothing banners increased an average of 5.3% YoY in 2023.
The median household income (HHI) in the trade areas of Winmark’s apparel chains tends to be lower than the median HHI in the wider apparel category – so budget-conscious consumers are driving at least some of the company’s growth. With more consumers looking for ways to cut back on spending in 2024, the demand for second-hand clothes is expected to grow even further – and Winmark is likely to continue reaping the benefits.
HomeGoods, a treasure hunter's dream, is the discount home furnishing retailer owned by off-price retail giant TJX Companies. The chain, which operates over 900 brick-and-mortar stores, recently closed its e-commerce platform to focus on its physical locations – where foot traffic grew 6.0% between 2023 and 2022.
HomeGoods carries kitchen and home decor items along with furniture, and may be benefiting from the relative strength of the houseware segment, driven in part by an increase in at-home entertainment. And in a surprising twist, this low-cost retailer attracts more affluent visitors than visitors to the home furnishing segment overall. The median household income (HHI) in HomeGoods’ trade area stood at $84.7K/year compared to a $78.5K median HHI in the trade area of the average home furnishing chain. As economic uncertainty and the resumption of student loan payments impact consumers, wealthier shoppers seeking a budget-friendly home refresh are likely to continue choosing HomeGoods over pricier alternatives.
Florida-based Bealls, Inc., which got its start as a small town five-and-dime in 1915 in Bradenton, Florida, now operates over 600 stores across the country. The company, which saw an impressive 9.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, recently consolidated its two largest banners – Burkes Outlet and Bealls Outlet – under the Bealls name.
One reason for Bealls’ success could be its appeal to rural consumers. Over the past five years, the share of households falling into Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Rural Average Income” segment has steadily increased, growing from 12.6% in 2019 to 15.1% in 2023. With rural shoppers continuing to command ever-more attention from retailers, the increase in visits from this segment bodes well for Bealls in 2024.
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet was built for this economy. The chain saw a 13.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, thanks in part to its popularity among a wide array of budget-conscious consumers. Ollie’s has found success with rural shoppers while maintaining its appeal among value-oriented suburban segments – and the chain’s diverse audience base seems to be setting it apart from other discount retailers.
A closer look at the chain’s captured market data, layered with the Spatial.ai: Personalive dataset, reveals that Ollie’s trade area includes larger shares of the “Blue Collar Suburbs” and “Suburban Boomer” segments when compared to the wider Discount & Dollar Stores category. As the chain plots its expansion, focusing on suburban and rural areas may help Ollie’s meet its customers where they are.
Trader Joe’s has managed to do what few stores can. The company does not invest in marketing, has no online shopping options, and loyalty programs? Forget about it. But despite this unusual approach to running a business, the California native has enjoyed consistent success over the years, with a 12.4% YoY increase in visits in 2023.
Trader Joe’s is particularly popular among younger shoppers, perhaps thanks to the company’s focus on sustainability and social responsibility – as well as its famously low prices. Analyzing the chain’s trade area using the AGS: Panorama dataset reveals that Trader Joe’s attracts more “Emerging Leaders” and “Young Coastal Technocrats” (segments that describe highly educated young professionals) than the average grocery chain. With Gen Z particularly concerned about putting their money where their mouth is, Trader Joe’s is likely to sustain its momentum in 2024 and beyond.
Convenience stores are growing up and evolving into bona-fide dining destinations. And Foxtrot, a Chicago-based chain with 29 stores across Texas, Illinois, Washington, Maryland, and Virginia, is one c-store redefining what a convenience store can be. The chain, which announced a merger with Dom’s Kitchen in November 2023, offers an upscale convenience store experience and is particularly known for including local brands in its product assortment as well as its excellent wine curation and dining options.
Visitors to the chain were significantly more likely to fall into AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset’s “Wine Drinker” or “Nutritionally Aware” segments than visitors to nearby convenience stores. The company plans to ramp up store openings, particularly in the suburbs, where convenience and a good bottle of wine might just find the perfect home as a welcome distraction from the daily grind.
Jersey Mike’s is one of the fastest-growing franchise dining chains in the country, operating over 2,500 locations in all 50 states. The sandwich chain has seen its popularity take off over the past few years, with 2023 visits up 14.1% YoY and plans to open 350 new stores in 2024.
The company has long prioritized affluent class suburban customers – and visitation data layered with the Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that Jersey Mike’s has indeed succeeded in attracting this audience. The percentage of “Booming with Confidence” and “Flourishing Families” (both affluent segments) in Jersey Mike’s trade area was larger than in the trade areas of the average sub sandwich chain. As Jersey Mike’s continues its expansion, focusing on suburban areas may continue to serve the chain well.
The East Coast may not be the first region that pops to mind when thinking about tropical smoothies – but New Jersey-based Playa Bowls is making it work. The company was founded by avid surf enthusiasts determined to bring the flavors of their favorite surfing towns stateside.
Playa Bowls has enjoyed strong visit numbers in 2023, with overall visits up 23.0% and average visits per venue up 17.1% YoY – and part of the chain’s success may be driven by its ability to draw wealthier customers to its stores. The Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that the “Power Elite” segment is overrepresented in the company’s trade areas: The share of households falling into that segment from Playa Bowl’s captured market exceeded their share in the company’s potential market. As the chain continues expanding its domestic footprint, it seems to have found its niche among a wealthy customer base.
The past year saw a wide range of challenges facing brick-and-mortar retailers as economic fears continued to shake consumer confidence. But there are plenty of bright spots as the new year gets underway. These ten brands prove that the retail world never stands still, and that the next opportunity is just around the corner.
Sports leagues like the NBA, NFL, and MLB boast billion-dollar revenues – and the venues where these games unfold hold significant commercial potential in their own rights. Many stadiums host concerts and other shows in addition to regularly held sporting matches and can accommodate tens of thousands of spectators at once – creating massive retail, dining, and advertisement opportunities.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence metrics for some of the biggest stadiums across the country to reveal the commercial potential of these venues beyond simple ticketing revenue. Where do visitors of various stadiums like to shop? Do specific sporting and cultural events impact the nearby restaurant scene differently? How can stadium operators, local businesses, and advertisers tailor their offerings to a stadium’s particular audience and make the most of the stadium and the space throughout the year?
We take a closer look below.
The three major sports leagues – the National Basketball League (NBA), Major League Baseball (MLB), and the National Football League (NFL) – play at different points of the year, and the number of games each league holds during the season also varies.
MLB leads in game frequency, with each team playing 162 games during the regular season, which runs approximately from April through September. Basketball season is also around six months – roughly from mid-October to mid-April – but each NBA team plays only 82 games a season. And the NFL has both the shortest season – 18 weeks running from early September to early January (with the pre-season starting in August) – and the fewest number of matches per team. Understanding the monthly visitation patterns for the various types of stadiums can help advertisers, stadium operators, and other stakeholders ensure that they are leveraging the full potential of the venue throughout the year.
Unsurprisingly, the sports arenas serving the different leagues see visit spikes during their leagues’ respective season. But comparing visit numbers throughout the year to the average monthly visit numbers for each category in 2023 reveals that the relative visit increases and decreases during the on- and off-season vary for each type of stadium.
MLB stadiums display the steadiest visit strength during the on-season – perhaps due to MLB’s packed game schedule. MLB tickets also tend to be relatively affordable compared to tickets to pro football or basketball matches, which may also contribute to MLB’s consistently strong visit numbers throughout the season. During the MLB off-season, baseball fields – which tend to be uncovered – are relatively empty.
The seasonal visit spike to NBA arenas is less steady. The beginning and end of the season see strong peaks, and visits slow down slightly during the mid-season months of January and February. Visits then drop during the off-season spring and summer, but the off-season visit dip is not as low as it is for MLB fields – perhaps because the NBA arenas’ indoor nature make them suitable locations for concerts and other non-basketball events.
Meanwhile, NFL stadiums see the least dramatic drop in visits during the NFL off-season, as these venues’ enormous size also make them the ideal location for concerts and other cultural events that draw large crowds. These arenas’ strong almost year-round visitation numbers mean that sponsors and advertisers looking to expand beyond sports fans to reach a diverse audience may have the most success with these venues.
Although MLB offers the most budget-friendly outing, combining STI: Popstats demographic metrics with trade area data reveals that MLB stadium visitors reside in higher-income areas when compared with visitors to NBA or NFL stadiums.
Baseball fans tend to be older than fans of the other sports, which could partially explain MLB stadium visitors’ higher household income (HHI). The combination of lower ticket prices, higher median HHI among fans, and many games per season offers baseball stadiums significant opportunities to engage effectively with their fan bases.
But while NBA and NFL stadium attendees may not come from as high-income areas as do MLB stadium visitors, fans of live basketball and football still reside in trade areas with a higher HHI compared to the nationwide median. So by leveraging stadium space, advertisers and other stakeholders can reach tens of thousands of relatively high-income consumers easily and effectively.
Sports fans are known to be passionate, engaged, and willing to spend money on their team – but stadium visitors also shop for non-sports related goods and services. Retailers and advertisers can draw on location analytics to uncover the consumer preferences of stadium visitors and tailor campaigns, sponsorships, and collaborations accordingly.
Visitation data to the top five most visited MLB stadiums during 2023 showed differences between the apparel and sporting goods shopping preferences of the various stadiums’ attendees. While 39.4% of visitors to Truist Park also visited DICK’s in 2023, only 30.8% of Yankee Stadium visitors stopped by the sporting goods retailer in the same period. Similarly, while 29.9% of visitors to Yankee Stadium frequented Kohl’s, that percentage jumped to 47.3% for Busch Stadium visitors.
Harnessing location intelligence to see the consumer preferences of a stadium’s visitor base can help retailers, stadium operators, and even team managers choose partnerships and merchandising agreements that will yield the most effective results.
Sports and snacks go hand in hand – what would a baseball game be without a hot dog or peanuts? But while every stadium likely provides a similar core of traditional game day eats, each venue also offers a unique set of dining options, both on- and off-premise. And by leveraging location analytics to gain visibility into stadium-goers dining habits, stadium operators and local food businesses can understand how to best serve each arena’s audience.
Mapping where stadium visitors dine before and after games can help stakeholders in the stadium industry reach more fans.
The chart below shows the share of visitors coming to a stadium from a dining venue (on the x-axis) or going to a dining venue after visiting the stadium (on the y-axis). The data reveals a correlation between pre-stadium dining and post-stadium dining – stadiums where many guests visit dining venues before the stadium also tend to have a large share of guests going to dining venues after the event. For example, the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, saw large shares of visitors grabbing a bite to eat on their journey to or from the stadium, while the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland saw low rates of pre- and post stadium dining engagement.
These trends present opportunities for both local businesses and stadium stakeholders. For example, venues with high dining engagement can explore partnerships with local restaurants, while those with lower rates can build out their in-house dining options for hungry sports fans.
Stadiums looking to enhance their food offerings – or local entrepreneurs thinking of opening a restaurant near a stadium – can also get inspired by stadium visitors’ dining preferences. For example, psychographic data taken from the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals that visitors to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey have a much stronger preference for Asian cuisine compared to New Jersey residents overall. With that knowledge, the stadium can enhance the visitor experience by expanding its Asian food offerings.
On the other hand, MetLife Stadium goers seem much less partial to Brewery fare than average New Jerseyans, so the stadium operators and restaurateurs may want to avoid offering too many Brewery-themed dining options. Stadium stakeholders can reserve the craft beers for Caesars Stadium, M&T Bank Stadium, and Soldier Field Stadiums, where visitors seem to enjoy artisanal brews more than the average resident in Louisiana, Maryland, and Illinois, respectively.
All of the stadiums analyzed exhibited unique visitor dining tastes, a reminder that no customer or fan base is alike. Aligning on- or off-site dining options with offerings that align with a given customer base’s preferences can improve overall visitor satisfaction and boost revenues.
Zooming in to look at consumer behavior around individual events reveals further variability in dining preferences even among visitors to the same stadium, with different types of events driving distinct dining behaviors.
State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, is home to the Arizona Cardinals. The stadium hosted the 2023 Super Bowl, but the NFL stadium also acts as a concert venue for acts ranging from Taylor Swift to Metallica. And location intelligence reveals that the dining preferences of stadium visitors vary based on the events held at the venue.
During the Super Bowl, sports bars such as Yard House and Buffalo Wild Wings saw the largest increase in visits compared to the chains’ daily average. A month later, attendees at Taylor Swift's concert gave fried-chicken leader Raising Cane’s a significant boost.
Local restaurants can leverage location analytics to see what types of events are popular with their visitor base and craft collaborations and advertising campaigns that resonate effectively with their patrons.
Sports stadiums and arenas are not just spaces for sports and music enthusiasts to gather; they also offer significant commercial opportunities for the surrounding communities. Stadium operators and local businesses can fine-tune their offerings by utilizing location analytics to better connect with their visitor bases and uncover new retail opportunities.
