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Retailers nationwide are entering a holiday season defined by tight budgets. Still, demand persists, and consumers are juggling inflation fatigue with a willingness to splurge selectively. Department stores – historically strong holiday performers – are navigating uneven results, with some brands showing surprising strength, while others face continued headwinds.
Department store visits in Q3 2025 remained mostly below last year’s level, although performance varied by brand – Bloomingdale’s (5.4%), Nordstrom (2.0%) and Dillard’s (0.3%) posting YoY visit growth while other major department store chains saw visit declines.
While Q3 2025 saw broad visit declines, October offered meaningful room for optimism ahead of what is sure to be a closely-watched holiday shopping season.
Visits improved across the board, with all but three analyzed chains experiencing YoY visit growth. While successful early holiday promotions likely played a role, much of the momentum reflects retailers’ refreshed campaigns and in-store strategies – a sign that their efforts to reenergize foot traffic are paying off.
Bloomingdale’s has leaned into its luxury positioning with high-impact experiential campaigns like its “Just Imagine” activation and new personalization initiatives, while Nordstrom has strengthened its omnichannel experience while tapping into AI-powered capabilities to predict demand. And both brands effectively balance an appeal to affluent customer segments less acutely affected by inflation with the broad reach necessary to support frequent visitation.
Despite recent challenges, mid-tier department stores are the ones that shine most during the holidays – and as the holiday season approaches, last year’s trends offer insight into what to expect in 2025.
In 2024, JCPenney and Belk posted the largest visit spikes during key holiday shopping days. Black Friday gains were especially pronounced, though Super Saturday also delivered substantial lifts. Macy’s visit boosts came in third – likely reflecting its enduring holiday association, from flagship displays and Santa tours to national promotions that keep the brand top-of-mind.
These peaks highlight just how important the holiday season is for mid-tier department stores, while also revealing opportunities for the rest of the year: Targeted promotions, limited-time offers, and event-driven campaigns can still draw major in-store surges, even outside traditional holiday periods. And should typical trends hold, 2025’s fast-approaching holiday season will provide a welcome boost across the board for all brands.
While October’s momentum offers room for optimism, the broader foot traffic declines seen in Q3 underscore the challenges department stores face amid a bifurcated retail landscape increasingly split between luxury and off-price competitors. Still, holiday season success remains within reach – particularly for brands like Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom willing to rework existing strategies and adapt to reach ever more discerning shoppers.
For the latest data-driven department store trends, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Thanksgiving may be this month’s biggest Thursday milestone – but for coffee lovers, Thursdays in November are also about Starbucks’ Red Cup Day, when eager fans line up to snag a limited-edition reusable cup, free with any handcrafted holiday beverage.
How did this year’s Red Cup Day stack up? Did the recent Bearista frenzy steal some of the spotlight, or did the two events build on one another to create an even bigger buzz?
On November 13th, 2025, visits to Starbucks surged 44.5% above the year-to-date daily average, reaching an even higher traffic peak than that seen on the day of the Bearista launch. Though November 6th was reportedly Starbucks’ biggest sales day ever in North America, according to CEO Brian Niccol, Red Cup Day drove even higher U.S. visit volumes, as customers turned out in droves to participate in the holiday tradition.
Niccol also noted that November 13th, 2025 marked the strongest Red Cup Day in company history – a claim supported by the data. Foot traffic during the event surged 8.2% higher than in 2023 and 3.1% higher than in 2024.
These results suggest that far from cannibalizing Red Cup Day, the Bearista Cup’s release just days earlier amplified the excitement, creating a sustained wave of engagement across Starbucks’ holiday calendar.
The strong response to these discretionary, purchase-based promotions also shows that when done right, exclusivity, excitement, and brand magic can still bring in the crowds – even in an economic climate marked by uncertainty and waning consumer confidence.
In addition to visit volumes, in-store behavior also shifts on major launch days. Unsurprisingly, longer lines lead to longer dwell times, as customers who might normally be in and out quickly wait patiently for their turn. On both November 6th and November 13th, the share of Starbucks visitors staying between 10 and 30 minutes increased substantially compared to an average Thursday, while the share staying under ten minutes declined.
Interestingly, though, the share of visitors who lingered even longer (30+ minutes) to work, study, or relax dropped slightly on the big days – likely because the festive crowds deterred those looking for a quieter place to settle in.
With the holiday season just getting underway, Starbucks still has plenty of tricks up its sleeve – including the return of its beloved Eggnog and Chestnut Praline Lattes, along with a new wave of festive merchandise launching on December 2nd. Will the coffee leader be able to sustain its winning streak through the end of the year?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
After a slow start to 2025, both Gap and Urban Outfitters are seeing visits pick up again ahead of the holidays. Traffic gains in Q3 signal improving consumer appetite, positioning both brands for a stronger finish to the year.
Visits to Gap showed a sluggish start in Q1 2025, with traffic down 2.7% year-over-year, likely influenced by a tough February (a leap day and inclement weather keeping shoppers at home). But momentum turned in Q2 (1.4%) and Q3 (also 1.4%), indicating that the retailer is regaining traction heading into the holiday season.
Monthly traffic trends reinforce that this improvement was driven by improved visit trends in most months, with August seeing the strongest visit growth of 5.1%. September visits took a slight downturn before climbing to a respectable 4.8% in October, likely the result of new campaigns and improved merchandising.
Gap has spent the past few years focusing on a turnaround strategy that saw the apparel brand reintroduce classic styles, bring in new creative directors, and collaborate with brands like Dôen and celebrities such as Katseye and Tyla. And these efforts seem to be paying off, both in terms of elevated foot traffic and in Gap’s earnings: net sales increased 5% in the first quarter (ending on May 31, 2025) and 1% in Q2 2025.
Gen-Z focused Urban Outfitters experienced a similar recovery arc. Visits to the chain were down in both Q1 and Q2 2025, but rebounded in Q3, with foot traffic elevated by 2.4% YoY. and diving into the monthly visits highlights that, for the most part, visit declines were modest, with a marked pickup from August onward, ending October with a 5.8% increase in foot traffic. This foot traffic pull-up also aligned with Urban Outfitter’s robust financials, with Q2 net sales up 4.2%.
This increase in visits aligns closely with back-to-school shopping, and Urban Outfitters’ focus on college-age consumers likely helped reenergize in-store activity after a softer first half.
Diving into the demographic data for both brands provides additional context for recent foot traffic trends. Gap’s captured audience earns well above the nationwide median – $99.0 versus $79.6 – while its potential market skews lower, at $84.1K. This indicates that Gap's recent gains are being driven primarily by higher-income households, who may be more insulated from inflation fatigue and attracted to the brand’s premium collaborations. It also highlights an opportunity for Gap to broaden its appeal among mid-income shoppers who remain part of its potential audience.
Urban Outfitters, by contrast, saw a captured median HHI that trailed its potential market ($89.9 compared to $92.0), perhaps owing to its popularity among “Young Professionals” – a segment which is overrepresented in its captured market. The strength in this segment also may help contextualize the Q3 lift, given that the Young Professional category includes college students – a cohort that Urban Outfitters is particularly invested in, both through its product mix and its experiential initiatives.
Looking forward, Gap and Urban Outfitters seem primed to succeed this holiday season. For Gap, a combination of successful renewal efforts, increasing foot traffic, and a wealthier customer base position it to continue driving visits. For Urban Outfitters, continued focus on core engagement and higher-value customer acquisition will determine how strongly it closes out 2025.
For more data-driven retail insights follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
As the retail calendar approaches its most pivotal stretch, we took a closer look at foot traffic trends across superstores and warehouse clubs to see how these key players are performing.
Warehouse clubs – Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s Wholesale – continued to post visit gains in recent months, extending the momentum that has defined the segment for much of the past year. Their consistent performance reinforces the appeal of the wholesale model among value-driven shoppers navigating inflationary pressures and tighter budgets.
However, within the broader mass merchandise sector, October marked a clear turning point. Walmart saw its strongest year-over-year (YoY) visit gains of the last six months, while Target’s traffic shifted from negative to positive growth for the first time during the same period. The October surge coincided with the superstores' early early holiday sales events, signaling that the early holiday season has evolved into a pivotal retail moment.
Costco led foot traffic growth among mass merchants in September and October 2025. And some of that momentum may stem from the chain’s new early opening hours for Executive Members, which appears to have eased peak-hour congestion and enhanced the overall shopping experience.
As a reminder, Costco Executive Members pay almost twice as much as standard Gold Star members and account for over 74% of the chain’s sales, so it makes sense that Costco would look to add value and additional perks to its premium memberships.
But since extending its hours to open an hour early for Executive Members, Costco has likely enhanced the overall shopping experience for all visitors.
The graph below shows that between July and October 2025, after the introduction of early openings, the extended morning hours reduced Costco’s traffic at peak times compared to 2024, spreading visits more evenly throughout the day – which means less crowding for everyone.
Earlier openings also affect how Costco shoppers shop. Since the new hours took effect, the share of Costco visits lasting 30 to 45 minutes has increased, while the share of 45- to 60-minute visits has declined. This shift suggests that with lighter crowds and easier navigation, Costco shoppers are more purposeful and efficient.
Meanwhile, the share of Costco visits lasting less than 30 minutes also fell during the July to October period, suggesting that in a more streamlined environment, some shoppers feel comfortable taking extra time to browse – and perhaps add a few more items to their baskets – rather than rushing through a crowded store.
As the main holiday season approaches and consumer sentiment reaches new lows, value-forward warehouse clubs appear to remain in a strong position. Meanwhile, superstores’ success with early sales events demonstrates that shoppers remain highly responsive to promotions, an encouraging sign heading into the peak shopping period.
By offering early access to Executive Members, Costco is both recognizing its most valuable shoppers and alleviating crowding for everyone during typical rush periods – a move that could give the retailer an edge during the busy holiday season.
How will these retailers close out the holiday season? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The home improvement sector continues to face challenges in 2025, and category leaders Lowe’s and The Home Depot continue to navigate shifting demand. Yet signs of resilience are beginning to emerge as both brands report strength across key mid-range categories and identify opportunities to drive the next phase of growth.
We dove into the data for The Home Depot and Lowe’s to find out what location analytics reveals about their performance and evolving strategy.
In their recent Q2 2025 reportings, both Lowe’s and The Home Depot underscored an important dynamic – while comparable sales and average ticket size increased, comparable transactions declined. Both retailers attributed this pattern to a shift in the mix of projects. Although the quarter saw notable strength in seasonal items, repair and maintenance supplies, and some bigger-ticket items, consumers continued to defer large discretionary renovation projects that typically require financing. This aligns with both retailer’s modest YoY traffic declines during most months since November 2024, since larger projects tend to require more store visits than smaller upgrades or repair projects.
Yet, both companies remain cautiously optimistic. Since July 2025, YoY visits to The Home Depot and Lowe’s have remained near, and in some cases exceeded, 2024 levels – which should bode well for the companies’ upcoming reportings. The nation’s housing stock is older than ever and underlying demand for new construction remains strong. Meanwhile, many homeowners have deferred larger discretionary renovations in recent years, creating a buildup of latent demand. Once economic conditions improve and financing becomes more accessible, that pipeline of major projects is poised to reopen, driving a new wave of growth for the home improvement sector.
Another source of future home improvement demand may come from Gen Z, a cohort that is quickly growing within the renter and homeowner populations. As this generation enters new life stages – moving into first apartments, buying starter homes, and taking on their own improvement projects – its influence on the category will expand.
Both Lowe’s and The Home Depot are already positioning for this shift. Each recently launched creator programs designed to highlight how their brands can empower the next generation of DIYers and design enthusiasts, while tapping into the reach and authenticity of influencers’ online communities.
As shown in the chart below, both the Home Depot and Lowe’s currently see smaller shares of visits from the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segments “Adulting” and “College” within their captured markets, compared to national benchmarks. This suggests a significant opportunity for both retailers to capture untapped demand from younger consumers living independently. If the brands’ creator initiatives succeed in driving greater engagement with Gen Z, their shares of these segments could grow in the years ahead.
The home improvement sector remains in transition in 2025, as Lowe’s and The Home Depot adapt to shifting consumer priorities. Still, both retailers are finding bright spots – from solid performance in mid-range categories to fresh opportunities that could drive the next phase of growth.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Off-price apparel chains are entering the holidays from a position of strength. In a year defined by elevated prices and economic uncertainty, many consumers are trading down to value-driven retailers, and treasure-hunt favorites like TJX, Burlington, and Ross Dress for Less are reaping the rewards.
Between July and October 2025, TJX’s HomeGoods division (HomeGoods + Homesense) saw year-over-year visit growth ranging from 5.6% to 14.3%, while Marmaxx (T.J. Maxx + Marshalls + Sierra) climbed 6.3% to 10.8%. These strong traffic gains align with TJX’s most recent quarterly report, where comparable sales rose and transaction volumes increased across every division.
Burlington also maintained its upward trajectory following a strong Q2 FY25 earnings beat that included 5% comp sales growth. And Ross, which reported a 2% comp sales increase last quarter, saw visits trend strongly upward through late summer and early fall – a welcome sign following its withdrawal of full-year guidance earlier this year amid tariff uncertainty.
Visitation trends from last year’s holiday season show just how important this period is for off-price retailers – while Black Friday doesn't tend to bring the massive visit spikes seen at other apparel chains, the holidays are still a significant time for the segment.
In December 2024, visits to Burlington surged 62.5% above the chain’s full-year monthly average, while T.J. Maxx and Marshalls saw increases of 54.0% and 53.4%, respectively. Ross posted a more modest 38.3% increase, but still outperformed the broader non-off-price apparel segment. Meanwhile, HomeGoods and Homesense also exceeded the wider home-furnishings category’s December benchmarks.
This outperformance likely stems in part from off-price retailers’ limited e-commerce presence – with Burlington and Ross operating entirely offline and TJX maintaining only a small digital footprint across select banners. But it also reflects the ongoing strength of a category that gives shoppers a low-cost, high-delight way to browse and indulge during the holiday season.
All signs point to a standout season for off-price giants like TJX, Burlington, and Ross – but just how high can their holiday cheer climb this year?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The first quarter of 2024 was generally a good one for retailers. Though unusually cold and stormy weather left its mark on the sector’s January performance, February and March saw steady year-over-year (YoY) weekly visit growth that grew more robust as the quarter wore on.
March ended on a high note, with the week of March 25th – including Easter Sunday – seeing a 6.1% YoY visit boost, driven in part by increased retail activity in the run-up to the holiday. (Last year, Easter fell on April 9th, 2023, so the week of March 25th is being compared to a regular week.)
Though prices remain high and consumer confidence has yet to fully regain its footing, retail’s healthy Q1 showing may be a sign of good things to come in 2024.
Drilling down into the data for leading retail segments demonstrates the continued success of value-priced, essential, and wellness-related categories.
Discount & Dollar Stores led the pack with 11.2% YoY quarterly visit growth, followed by Grocery Stores, Fitness, and Superstores – all of which outperformed Overall Retail. Dining also enjoyed a YoY quarterly visit bump, despite the segment’s largely discretionary nature. And despite the high interest rates continuing to weigh on the housing and home renovation markets, Home Improvement & Furnishings maintained just a minor YoY visit gap.
Discount & Dollar Stores experienced strong YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – and as go-to destinations for groceries and other other essential goods, they held their own even during mid-January’s Arctic blast. In the last week of March, shoppers flocked to leading discount chains for everything from chocolate Easter bunnies to basket-making supplies – driving a remarkable 21.5% YoY visit spike.
Dollar General continued to dominate the Discount & Dollar Store space in Q1, with visits to its locations accounting for nearly half of the segment’s quarterly foot traffic (44.7%). Next in line was Dollar Tree, followed by Family Dollar and Five Below. Together, the four chains – all of which experienced positive YoY quarterly visit growth – drew a whopping 91.6% of quarterly visits to the category.
Rain or shine, people have to eat. And like Discount & Dollar Stores, traditional Grocery Stores were relatively busy through January as shoppers braved the storms to stock up on needed items. Momentum continued to build throughout the quarter, culminating in a 10.5% foot traffic increase in the week ending with Easter Sunday.
Like in other categories, it was budget-friendly Grocery banners that took the lead. No-frills Aldi drove a chain-wide 24.4% foot traffic increase in Q1, by expanding its fleet – while also growing the average number of visits per location. Other value-oriented chains, including Trader Joe’s and Food Lion, experienced significant foot traffic increases of their own. And though conventional grocery leaders like H-E-B, Kroger, and Albertsons saw smaller visit bumps, they too outperformed Q1 2023 by meaningful margins.
January is New Year’s resolution season – when people famously pick themselves up off the couch, dust off their trainers, and vow to go to the gym more often. And with wellness still top of mind for many consumers, the Fitness category enjoyed robust YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – despite lapping a strong Q1 2023.
Predictably, Fitness’s visit growth slowed during the last week of March, when many Americans likely indulged in Easter treats rather than work out. But given the category’s strength over the past several years, there is every reason to believe it will continue to flourish.
For Fitness chains, too, cost was key to success in Q1 – with value gyms experiencing the biggest visit jumps. EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, both of which offer low-cost membership options, saw their Q1 visits skyrocket 28.9% and 22.0% YoY, respectively – helped in part by aggressive expansions. At the same time, premium and mid-range gyms like Life Time and LA Fitness are also finding success – showing that when it comes to Fitness, there’s plenty of room for a variety of models to thrive.
Superstores – including wholesale clubs – are prime destinations for big, planned shopping expeditions – during which customers can load up on a month’s supply of food items or stock up on home goods. And perhaps for this reason, the category felt the impact of January’s inclement weather more than either dollar chains or supermarkets – which are more likely to see shoppers pop in as needed for daily essentials.
But like Grocery Stores and Discount & Dollar Stores, Superstores ended the quarter with an impressive YoY visit spike, likely fueled by Easter holiday shoppers.
As in Q4 2023, membership warehouse chains – Costco Wholesale, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club – drove much of the Superstore category’s positive visit growth, as shoppers likely engaged in mission-driven shopping in an effort to stretch their budgets. Still, segment mainstays Walmart and Target also enjoyed positive foot traffic growth, with YoY visits up 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively.
Moving into more discretionary territory, Dining experienced a marked January slump, as hunkered-down consumers likely opted for delivery. But the segment rallied in February and March, even though foot traffic dipped slightly during the last week of March, when many families gathered to enjoy home-cooked holiday meals.
Coffee Chains and Fast-Casual Restaurants saw the largest YoY visit increases, followed by QSR – highlighting the enduring power of lower-cost, quick-serve dining options. But Full-Service Restaurants (FSR) also saw a slight segment-wide YoY visit uptick in Q1 – good news for a sector that has yet to bounce back from the one-two punch of COVID and inflation. Within each Dining category, however, some chains experienced outsize visit growth – including favorites like Dutch Bros. Coffee, Slim Chickens, In-N-Out Burger, and Texas Roadhouse.
Since the shelter-in-place days of COVID – when everybody had their sourdough starter and DIY was all the rage – Home Improvement & Furnishings chains have faced a tough environment. Many deferred or abandoned home improvement projects in the wake of inflation, and elevated interest rates coupled with a sluggish housing market put a further damper on the category.
Against this backdrop, Home Improvement & Furnishings’ relatively lackluster Q1 visit performance should come as no surprise. But the narrowing of the visit gap in March – which also saw one week of positive visit growth – may serve as a promising sign for the segment. (The abrupt foot traffic drop during the week of March 25th, 2024 is likely a just reflection of Easter holiday shopping pattern.)
Within the Home Improvement & Furnishings space, some bright spots stood out in Q1 – including Harbor Freight Tools, which saw visits increase by 10.0%, partly due to the brand’s growing store count. Tractor Supply Co., Menards, and Ace Hardware also registered visit increases.
January 2024’s stormy weather left its mark on the Q1 retail environment, especially for discretionary categories. But as the quarter progressed, retailers rallied, with healthy YoY foot traffic growth that peaked during the last week of March – the week of Easter Sunday. All in all, retail’s positive Q1 performance leaves plenty of room for optimism about what’s in store for the rest of 2024.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Over the past year, Fast-Casual & Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) chains have thrived, consistently outperforming the Full-Service Dining segment with positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth every quarter since 2023. In this white paper, we dive into the data for leading dining chains to take a closer look at what’s driving visitors to the QSR segment and what other dining categories can learn from fast-food’s success.
One of the key factors separating QSR chains – aptly known as “fast food” – from the rest of the dining industry is the speed at which diners can get a ready-to-eat meal in their hands. And within the QSR space, speed of service is one of the ways chains differentiate themselves from their competition.
Leading fast-food chains are investing heavily in technologies and systems designed to help them serve customers ever more quickly:
Taco Bell’s “Touch Display Kitchen System” is designed to optimize cooking operations and improve wait times, while the chain’s Go Mobile restaurant format seeks to alleviate bottlenecks in the drive-thru lane. Chick-fil-A also has dedicated channels for quick mobile order pick-up and is planning four-lane drive-thrus with second-floor kitchens to get meals out even faster. And to save time at the drive-thru, Wendy’s is experimenting with generative AI and developing an underground, robotic system to deliver digital orders to designated parking spots within seconds.
And location intelligence shows that all three chains are succeeding in reducing customer wait times. Over the past four years, Taco Bell, Chick-fil-A, and Wendy’s have seen steady increases in the share of visits to their venues lasting less than 10 minutes.
The data also suggests that investment in speed of service can increase overall visitation to QSR venues.
In late 2022, McDonald’s opened a to-go-only location outside of Dallas, TX with a lane dedicated to mobile order fulfillment via a conveyor belt. And in Q1 2024, this venue not only had a larger share of short visits compared to the other McDonald’s locations in the region, but also more visits compared to the McDonald’s average visits per venue in the Dallas-Fort Worth CBSA.
This provides further support for the power of fast order fulfillment to drive QSR visits, with customers motivated by the prospect of getting in and out quickly.
The success of the fast-food segment is even driving other restaurants to borrow typical QSR formats – especially during time slots when people are most likely to grab a bite to eat on the go.
In September 2023, full-service leader Applebee’s opened a new format: a fast casual location focusing on To Go orders in Deer Park, NY, featuring pick-up lockers for digital orders and limited dine-in options without table service.
And the new format is already attracting outsized weekday and lunchtime crowds. In Q1 2024, 20.5% of visits to the chain’s To Go venue took place during the 12:00 PM - 2:00 PM time slot, while the average Applebee’s in the New York-Newark-Jersey City CBSA received less than 10% of its daily visits during that daypart. The new restaurant also drew a significantly higher share of weekday visits than other nearby venues.
This suggests that takeaway-focused venues could help full-service chains grow their visit share during weekdays and the coveted lunch rush, when consumers may be less inclined to have a sit-down meal.
An additional factor contributing to QSR and Fast Casual success in 2024 may be the rise of chicken-based chains. Chicken is a versatile ingredient that has remained relatively affordable, which could be contributing to its growing popularity and the rapid expansion of several chicken chains.
Comparing the relative visit share (not including delivery) of various sub-segments within the wider Fast Casual & QSR space showed that the share of visits to chains with chicken-based menus has increased steadily between 2019 and 2023: In Q1 2024, 15.3% of Fast Casual & QSR visits were to a chicken restaurant concept, compared to just 13.4% in Q1 2019.
The strength of chicken-based concepts is also evident when comparing average visits per venue at leading chicken chains with the wider Fast Casual & QSR average.
Both Chick-fil-A, the nation’s predominant chicken chain, and Raising Cane’s, a rapidly expanding player in the fast-food chicken space, are receiving significantly more visits per venue than their Fast Casual & QSR peers: In Q1 2024, Raising Cane’s and Chick-fil-A restaurants saw an average of 153.0% and 237.7% more visits per venue, respectively, compared to the combined Fast Casual & QSR industries average.
The elevated traffic at chicken chains likely plays a part in their profitability per restaurant relative to other Fast Casual & QSR concepts with more sizable fleets.
QSR and Fast-Casual chains are also particularly adept at generating seasonal visit spikes through unique Limited Time Offers and holiday promotions adapted to the calendar.
Arby’s recently launched a 2 for $6 sandwich promotion on February 1st, with two of the three sandwich options on promotion being fish-based in an apparent attempt to entice diners eschewing meat in observance of Lent. The company also brought back a specialty fish sandwich, likely with the goal of further appealing to the Lent-observing demographic.
The offers seem to have driven significant traffic spikes, with foot traffic during the promotion period significantly higher than the January daily visit average. And traffic was particularly elevated during Lent – which this year fell on Wednesday, February 14th through Thursday, March 28th, with visits spiking on Fridays when those observing are most likely to seek out fish-based meals.
Some of the elevated visits in the second half of Q1 may be attributed to the comparison to a weaker January across the dining segment. But the success of the fish-forward promotion specifically during Lent suggests that the company’s calendar-appropriate LTO played a major role in driving visits to the chain.
Shorter-term promotions – even those lasting just a single day – can also drive major visit spikes.
Since 1991, White Castle has transformed its fast-food restaurants into a reservation-only, “fine-dining” experience for dinner on Valentine's Day. In 2024, Valentine’s Day fell on a Wednesday, and White Castle’s sit-down event drove a 11.8% visit increase relative to the average Wednesday in Q1 2024 and a 3.9% visit increase compared to the overall Q1 2024 daily average.
The elevated visit numbers over Valentine’s Day are even more impressive when considering that a full-service dining room can accommodate fewer visitors than the drive-thrus and counter service of White Castle’s typical QSR configuration. The spike in February 14th visits may also be attributed to an increased number of diners showing up throughout the day to take in the Valentine’s Day buzz.
QSR and Fast-Casual dining are having a moment. And the data shows that a combination of factors – including fast and efficient service, the rising popularity of chicken-based dining concepts, and effective LTOs – are all playing a part in the categories’ recent success.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The first American mall opened in 1956 and reinvented retail – within a decade there were over 4,500 malls across the country. But a rise in e-commerce coupled with the oversaturation of mall options across the country paved the way for mall visits to slow, and many predicted that malls would go the way of the dinosaur.
But although malls were hit hard over the past few years as lockdowns and rising costs contributed to a significant drop in foot traffic, shopping centers have proven resilient. Leading players in the space have consistently reinvented themselves and explored alternate ways to draw in crowds – and as inflation cools, malls are bouncing back as well.
This white paper analyzes the Placer.ai Shopping Center Industry – a collection of over 3000 shopping centers across the United States – as well as the Placer.ai’s Mall Indexes, which focus on top-tier Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, Outlet Malls. The report examines how visits are shifting and where behaviors are changing – and where they’re staying the same – and takes a closer look at the strategies malls are using to attract shoppers in 2024.
Malls experienced a rocky few years as pandemic-related restrictions and economic headwinds kept many shoppers at home, and visits to all mall types in 2021 were between 10.7% to 15.3% lower than in 2019. But foot traffic trends improved significantly in 2022 – likely due to the fading out of COVID restrictions.
By 2023, visits to the wider Shopping Center Industry were just 2.3% lower than they had been in 2019, and the visit gaps for Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers had narrowed to 5.8% and 1.0% lower, respectively. Outlet Malls also saw visits ticking up once again, with the visit gap compared to 2019 narrowing to 8.5% in 2023 after having dropped to 11.3% in 2022. This more sustained foot traffic dip may stem from consumers’ desire to save on gas costs or the impacts of inclement weather. However, the narrowing visit gaps suggest that shoppers are increasingly returning to the segment, and foot traffic may yet pick up again in 2024.
COVID-19 impacted more than just visit numbers – it also changed in-store consumer behavior. And now, with the Coronavirus a distant memory for many, some of these pandemic-acquired habits are fading away, while other shifts appear to be holding steady.
One visit metric that appears to have reverted to pre-COVID norms is the share of weekday vs. weekend visits. Weekday visits had increased in 2021 – at the height of COVID – as consumers found themselves with more free time midweek, but the balance of weekday vs. weekend visits has now returned to 2019 levels.
In 2023, the Shopping Center Industry, which includes a number of grocery-anchored centers along with open-air shopping centers and their relatively large variety of dining options, saw the largest share of weekday visits, followed by Indoor Malls. Outlet Malls received the lowest share of weekday visits – around 55% – likely due to the longer distances usually required to drive to these malls, making them ideal destinations for weekend day trips.
While the day of the week that people frequent malls hasn't changed significantly since 2019, there is one notable difference in mall foot traffic pre- and post-pandemic. Almost all mall categories are seeing fewer during the late morning-midday and late evening dayparts, while the amount of people heading to a mall in the afternoon and early evening has increased.
In 2019, Indoor Malls saw 20.1% of visits occurring between 10:00am and 1:00pm, but that share decreased to 18.6% in 2023. Meanwhile, the share of visits between 4:00-7:00 pm rose from 29.1% in 2019 to 32.4% in 2023. Similar patterns repeated across all shopping center categories, with the 1:00-4:00pm daypart seeing a slight increase, the 4:00-7:00 pm daypart receiving the largest boost and the 7:00-10:00 pm daypart seeing the largest drop. So although changes in work habits have not altered the weekly visit distribution, it seems like hybrid workers are taking advantage of their new, and likely more flexible schedules to frequent malls in the afternoon instead of reserving their mall trips for after work. The significant numbers of Americans moving to the suburbs in recent years may also be contributing to the decline of late night visits, with these suburban newcomers perhaps less likely to spend time outside the house during the evening hours.
Although malls have enjoyed consistent growth in foot traffic over the past two years, visits still remain below 2019 levels. How can shopping centers attract more shoppers and recover their pre-COVID foot traffic?
Some malls are attracting visitors by looking beyond traditional retail with offerings such as gyms, amusement parks, and even entertainment complexes. And with more traditional mall anchors shutting their doors than ever, even smaller shopping centers are adding lifestyle experiences options in newly vacant spaces – and incorporating unique elements into traditional retail spaces.
In September 2023, the Chandler Fashion Center in Arizona opened a giant SCHEELS store in its mall. The 250,000-square-foot sporting goods store boasts more than just sneakers – visitors can ride on a 45-foot Ferris Wheel or marvel at a 16,000-gallon saltwater aquarium. And monthly visitation data to the mall reveals the power of this new retail destination, with foot traffic to the mall experiencing a major jump from October 2023 onward. The excitement of the new SCHEELS seems to be sustaining itself, with February 2024 visits 23.3% higher than the same period of 2023.
Restaurants, too, can help bring people into malls. The Southgate Mall in Missoula, Montana, experienced a jump in monthly visits following the opening of a Texas Roadhouse steakhouse in November 2023. Customers seem to be receptive to this new addition – the mall saw a sustained increase in foot traffic from November 2023 onward, with year-over-year (YoY) visit growth of 17.0% in February 2024.
The addition of Texas Roadhouse provides Missoula residents with a family-friendly dining experience while tapping into the evergreen popularity of steakhouses.
Malls that don’t want to choose between adding a dining option and incorporating a novel entertainment venue can blend the two and go the “eatertainment” route. One shopping center – North Carolina’s Cross Creek Mall – is proving just how effective these concepts can be for a mall looking to grow its foot traffic.
Eatertainment destination Main Event opened at the mall in August 2023, bringing laser tag, video games, virtual reality, and 18 bowling lanes with it. Main Event’s opening also provided a boost in foot traffic to the mall – monthly visits to Cross Creek Mall surged following the opening. And this foot traffic boost sustained itself, particularly into the colder winter months – January and February 2024 saw YoY growth of 12.3% and 25.1%, respectively.
Integrating entertainment options at malls is one strategy for driving visits, but there are plenty of other ways to bring people through the doors. Pop-ups have been a particularly popular option of late, especially as more online brands venture into the world of physical retail. And malls, which typically tend to leave a small portion of their storefronts vacant, can be the perfect place to host a retailer for a limited time.
One brand – Shein – has been a leader in the pop-up space, bringing its affordable fashion to malls in Las Vegas, Seattle, and Indianapolis. These short-term residencies – typically no longer than three to four days – allow shoppers to try the popular online retailer’s products before they buy.
Shein has enjoyed success with its mall residencies, evidenced by the foot traffic at the Woodfield Mall in Illinois, which hosted a three-day pop-up from December 15-17, 2023. The retail event was hugely popular, with visits reaching Super Saturday (the last weekend before Christmas) proportions – even though this year’s Super Saturday coincided with Christmas Eve Eve (December 23rd) and drove unusually high traffic spikes.
Shein pop-ups are typically very short – no more than three to four days. This format, known for creating a sense of urgency among shoppers, has proven powerful in driving store visits. But can longer-lasting pop-ups find success as well?
Foot traffic data from pop-ups hosted by Swedish home furnisher IKEA suggests that yes – longer-term residencies can be successful. The chain is working on growing its presence across the country, particularly in malls. To that end, IKEA has been experimenting with mall pop-ups, beginning with a six-month residency at the Rosedale Center in Roseville, Minnesota.
IKEA opened its store on February 16, 2024, and visits to the mall increased significantly immediately after. The first week of the pop-up saw a 12.9% growth in visits compared to a January 1-7, 2024 baseline. And by the third week of the pop-up, there were still noticeably more people frequenting the mall than before the launch.
The luxury retail segment has had a great few years, and malls are tapping into this popularity. Nearly 40% of new high-end store openings in 2023 were in mall settings, many in Sunbelt states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona, perhaps driven in part by demand from an influx of wealthy newcomers to those states.
A comparison of upscale shopping malls to standard shopping centers across Sunbelt States reveals just how popular high-end retail is in the region. Malls with a high percentage of luxury and designer stores like the Lenox Square Mall in Georgia or the NorthPark Center in Texas saw considerably more YoY visit growth than the average visit growth for shopping centers in their respective states.
Lenox Square Mall saw foot traffic increase 31.2% YoY in 2023, while shopping centers in Georgia saw their visits grow by just 2.7% YoY in the same period. Similar trends repeated in Louisiana, Arizona, California, and Florida. And while some of this growth may be due to the resilience of these wealthier shoppers in the face of inflation, one thing is clear – luxury is here to stay.
Malls are thriving, carving out spaces for themselves in a competitive retail environment. By prioritizing experiential retail, entertainment, pop-up shops, and luxury offerings, shopping centers across the country are remaining relevant in a rapidly changing retail world. And mall operators that recognize the power of innovation and evolve along with their customers can hope to meet with continued success.
