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Limited-service restaurants faced a challenging landscape in 2025, with many price-sensitive consumers pulling back on dining out in favor of grocery prepared meals and brown-bag lunches. Traffic was harder to come by, and everyday demand softened across much of the category.
Even so, chains found creative ways to stand out. We dug into the data behind the busiest weeks of the year for quick-service and fast-casual restaurants to understand what actually moved traffic – and which strategies are most likely to help brands compete in what’s shaping up to be another value-conscious year.
Everyday value became table stakes across limited service in 2025, with $5 meals, bundles, and loyalty pricing no longer serving as clear differentiators. Yet unsurprisingly, freebies and truly memorable discounts still drew crowds.
The chains featured in the chart below all saw their highest weekly traffic peaks during promotions that felt distinctive, easy to understand, and clearly worth acting on. Some – like Dairy Queen’s Free Cone Day and Dave’s Hot Chicken’s Free Slider Day – involved no-purchase-necessary giveaways. Others relied on steep, attention-grabbing discounts, such as Whataburger’s Anniversary 75-cent burger and Pizza Hut’s $2 Tuesday promo, or culturally timed activations like Chipotle’s Stanley Cup–inspired hockey jersey BOGO.
For 2026, the takeaway is clear: Discounting still works, but the offers likely to truly motivate consumers are the ones that stand out from the everyday value they already expect.
Fortunately for restaurants, however, deep discounts and giveaways aren’t the only way to draw crowds - if they were, the economics wouldn’t be sustainable for long. In 2025, culture-driven moments came surprisingly close to matching the power of freebies, without the same margin trade-offs.
Take Krispy Kreme, for example. The chain’s annual National Donut Day promotion – including a no-purchase-necessary free donut and a $2 dozen with the purchase of 12 more – produced the chain’s largest single-day visit spike of the year (+219.7% versus an average day on June 6th, 2025) and helped push weekly visits to a yearly high.
But Krispy Kreme’s Back to Hogwarts collection which launched on August 18, 2025, generated a more sustained lift that nearly matched National Donut Day’s impact at the weekly level. While the campaign did include a free donut giveaway on Saturday, August 23rd for fans representing their favorite house, the data shows the surge wasn’t driven by the freebie alone: Traffic jumped 40.7% above an average Monday on launch day, compared with a 30.9% lift over an average Saturday on the day of the giveaway.
At McDonald’s and Burger King, too, pop-culture tie-ins dominated the promotional calendar. For both chains, the week of December 1st emerged as the busiest week of 2025, and also delivered the largest YoY weekly visit increase.
At Burger King, the lift came from the chain’s SpongeBob Movie Menu – starring the Krabby Whopper – launched on December 1st ahead of the film’s December 19th release. The promotion drove an 18.4% YoY traffic increase, with traffic – largely flat or down since September – remaining elevated in the weeks that followed.
At McDonald’s, momentum was fueled by a holiday-themed Grinched Menu, which arrived on the heels of the fast food leader’s highly successful Boo Bucket merchandise drop in October. The Boo Buckets drove McDonald’s second- and third-largest year-over-year visit spikes during the weeks of October 20 and 27, and the Grinch Meal built on that lift, pushing visits higher yet during the week of December 1st and sustaining momentum through the rest of the month.
The lesson here is twofold: Well-timed promotions tied to widely recognized cultural moments can still drive outsized traffic on their own, as Krispy Kreme and Burger King’s activations showed. But McDonald’s performance also underscores the value of sequencing – using one successful launch to carry momentum into the next.
Speaking of timing and sequencing, Starbucks’ viral Bearista offering, launched strategically just before the Brand’s iconic Red Cup Day, shows how well-timed promotions can compound impact.
Red Cup Day during the week of November 10th was Starbucks’ busiest day of 2025. But the week of Bearista (November 3rd) came awfully close – and delivered the brand’s largest YoY weekly visit increase of 2025. Just as importantly, the Bearista launch helped build visit momentum, setting the stage for what ultimately became Starbucks’ biggest Red Cup Day ever.
Consumers lining up to pay $30 for the Bearista also challenged another long-held assumption about QSR traffic in 2025: that offerings have to be cheap to deliver results. What makes this especially notable is that Bearista wasn’t tied to a movie release or external cultural IP. It was brand-first, premium-priced merchandise that still drove traffic at scale. And while not easily replicated, Starbucks’ Bearista success shows that scarcity, storytelling, and timing can unlock value beyond low-price promotions.
If you’ve gotten this far, you might be wondering: What about food? Don’t people still go to restaurants to eat – and aren’t craveable menu items supposed to drive traffic?
The answer is yes. Amid all the noise around discounts, collaborations, and merchandise, food still mattered in 2025. At Popeyes, the June 2nd launch of Chicken Wraps, priced accessibly at $3.99, drove the chain’s busiest week of the year. While wraps weren’t totally new to Popeyes’ menu, this rollout was framed as a value-forward, easy-to-understand innovation at a moment when affordability mattered – and consumers responded.
At Taco Bell and KFC, food-driven traffic spikes leaned more heavily on nostalgia. Taco Bell’s limited-time revival of Cheesy Street Chalupas and Quesaritos lifted visits roughly 8% above average, while KFC saw an even larger jump (11.4%) with the return of Potato Wedges and Hot & Spicy Wings. These weren’t experimental launches, but deliberate re-releases of proven favorites, giving diners something familiar and a reason to act quickly.
Together, these examples show that even in a crowded promotional landscape, menu remains a core traffic lever – and that clearly positioned items can rise above the noise without flashy add-ons.
The busiest weeks of 2025 show that even in a tough, value-conscious environment, limited-service restaurants still have multiple, proven ways to drive traffic. From clear deep discounts that rise above the noise to culture-led moments, narrative-driven merchandise, and well-timed menu strategies also delivered some of the year’s strongest results.
As QSRs and fast-casual chains look ahead to 2026, the data suggests that winning won’t hinge on any single tactic, but on choosing the right lever for the right moment, and executing it clearly enough to cut through a crowded landscape.
For more data-driven dining insights, follow Placer.a/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Indoor malls outperformed both open-air centers and outlet malls on a full-year basis as the only format to post visit gains during all four quarters – signaling a shift from recovery into growth.
Open-air shopping centers came in second – and though the format trailed indoor malls on a full-year basis, open-air shopping centers came out on top over the holidays, with Q4 visits up 2.0% year over year (YoY) and December traffic up 1.5%. This seasonal strength can be attributed to the format's sit-down and alcohol-forward dining options, which attract social holiday visits, as well as layouts that support quick trips and easy access to both essential and discretionary retail.
Meanwhile, outlet malls remained the weakest-performing format throughout 2025, with an annual traffic decline driven in part by a 1.1% drop in visits during the critical holiday season. This softness could reflect a broader shift in value perception. Price-conscious consumers may be increasingly weighing time cost alongside monetary savings, and long drives can offset the appeal of discounted pricing – particularly when promotions and loyalty incentives are widely available online and in traditional retail formats. To win consumers back, outlet malls may need to reduce the perceived time tradeoff by strengthening food and entertainment offerings and positioning themselves as curated, experience-driven value destinations rather than purely price-led ones.
Malls continue to resonate with a wide range of family segments, though different formats appeal to different household profiles. Across formats, higher-income and suburban family segments over-index among mall visitors. Indoor malls and open-air centers attract a disproportionate share of ultra-wealthy and affluent suburban households, underscoring malls’ ongoing relevance for consumers seeking family-friendly activities and experiences. Outlet malls, meanwhile, skew more heavily toward near-urban diverse families, reflecting their positioning as value-oriented destinations rather than lifestyle hubs.
At the same time, young professionals also play a meaningful role in mall traffic, over-indexing across all formats relative to their 5.8% share of the national population.
Across all formats, mall visitors also frequented mass merchants, big-box retailers, and off-price chains at high rates in 2025, underscoring that mall trips are often embedded within broader, multi-stop shopping routines rather than standing alone.
More than 70% of visitors across all mall formats also visited Walmart and Target at some point in 2025, and over half of mall visitors also visited Dollar Tree – underscoring how deeply mass merchants and discount chains are embedded in consumers’ retail lives. This indicates that malls face stiff competition as an everyday shopping destination. Malls that want to pull ahead in 2026 may focus on differentiating themselves from superstores by leaning into experiences and services that mass merchants cannot efficiently deliver – using tenant mix and programming to capture discretionary spend beyond routine retail needs.
Of the three formats, outlet malls showed the highest overlap with value-oriented and off-price chains, highlighting both their competitive pressure and their opportunity to redefine value. As discounted retail becomes increasingly ubiquitous, outlets can differentiate by extending value beyond merchandise—pairing sharp pricing with affordable dining, family-friendly entertainment, and experience-led programming that reinforces the outlet trip as a high-value day out, not just a bargain hunt.
Mall success in 2026 will likely hinge on maximizing the quality and purpose of each visit. Indoor malls are best positioned to double down on experiential retail, entertainment, and family-friendly programming that supports longer dwell times and higher discretionary spend. Open-air centers can continue to capitalize on convenience and dining-led visitation by optimizing for short, high-intent trips – particularly during peak seasonal periods.
For outlet malls, the opportunity lies in expanding the definition of value. As discounts become easier to access everywhere, outlets can differentiate by applying value thinking to food, entertainment, and experiences – turning the outlet trip into an affordable day out rather than a pure bargain hunt. Across all formats, operators and retailers that align tenant mix, layout, and programming with how consumers actually shop – across channels and formats – will be best positioned to capture wallet share in an increasingly fragmented retail landscape.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
At the start of 2025, expectations for retail were optimistic – focused on replacement cycles, a rebound in discretionary spending, and continued consumer strength. In reality, the year has been far more disruptive than that early narrative anticipated.
Consumers faced ongoing pressure from economic uncertainty, weather disruptions, employment concerns, and declining confidence. With consumers more connected to real-time news than ever, shoppers adjusted their retail decisions quickly as conditions changed, often taking a cautious, defensive approach to spending.
The discretionary side of the retail industry, also known as general merchandise, has shouldered most of the impact of changing consumer dynamics. As consumers looked to create a balance between their needs and their wants, oftentimes the “needs” won out. In general, visitation to non-discretionary categories has remained relatively stable, while there has been more volatility across the discretionary space.
The non-discretionary retail sectors benefited from value based models like value grocery chains and dollar and discount stores. Warehouse clubs emerged as the new one-stop-shop for consumers as superstores struggled to maintain in-store traffic. And fresh format grocery stores still found success with wealthier consumers and new store formats.
Despite the challenges overall, there have still been pockets of growth and emerging trends that have shaped the discretionary sector. And, despite a lot of stormy weather, consumers continue to maintain some level of resilience. In particular, the holiday season has been shaped by this unforeseen optimism despite the circumstances of many shoppers.
Here’s a look back at the trends and stories that shaped discretionary categories in 2025:
One of the most stark examples of the current retail climate continues to be the bifurcation of consumers. The retail industry, particularly in discretionary categories, has been bolstered by wealthier shoppers, as lower and middle income families become more discerning and stretched financially. This trend became more pronounced throughout 2025, and the second half of 2025 saw a large pullback by “aspirational” shoppers.
The luxury market has been greatly impacted by this trend, as visits by wealthier consumers haven’t been able to offset the decline by more infrequent, aspirational visitors. Overall visit growth to luxury apparel and accessories retailers slowed in Q3 when compared to 2024 levels, and those trends have continued into the holiday season.
According to Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive consumer segmentation, 2025 has seen a higher distribution of visits by Ultra Wealthy Families, Sunset Boomers, and Upper Suburban Diverse Families as there has been a contraction of visits by Near-Urban Diverse Families, and City Hopefuls. Aspirational shoppers who may have once saved for or set aside disposable income for luxury purchases may have had to shift those funds elsewhere as lower income shoppers become more financially strained.
Retailers are going to face more pressure next year as this bifurcation continues and consumer spending becomes more polarized. Full-price brands and those that fit somewhere in the middle are going to need creative solutions to court consumers, especially those who have become much more discerning this year.
The American retail landscape has long been associated with the wide array of specialty retailers that operate all across the country. Whether mastering American fashion, stories, or experiences, retailers have ingrained themselves into the fabric of consumers’ celebrations, gifts, and leisure time.
For many retailers that have led both media coverage and performance in 2025, success has come down to one simple concept: going back to their roots. Retail brands have always been synonymous with specialties, whether it be quality, styling, service, or expertise. Brands that have once again harnessed these elements to repair relationships with consumers and cement their brand value have been able to circumvent a lot of the economic challenges this year.
The return of Gap has been well documented this year, but it bears repeating because it has been remarkable. While all Gap Inc. brands are somewhere along the road to recovery, the flagship brand has been most impressive. Traffic in 2025 was up 1.1% compared to 2024, which is impressive after years of declines. The brand has focused its marketing and merchandising around the return of trend-right, high quality and affordable American fashion, and shoppers have bought in wholeheartedly.
Nordstrom, another top pick for 2025, cemented its place as a category expert and customer service titan. Whether it be the shoe department, the cafe, or the in-store experience, Nordstrom is once again a top-of-mind destination for shoppers, especially those who have higher levels of disposable income. The chain is benefiting from this return to form, with visits up 2.3% in 2025.
Finally, against all odds, Barnes & Noble has continued its momentum this year. As the industry to be first disrupted by e-commerce, the bookstore category has faced an uphill climb after losing major retail chains and a strong digital presence. Barnes & Noble has been able to harness the power of in-store experience to cement itself as part of the consumers’ communities. As shoppers increasingly look to the retail industry as a third place for socializing, the chain has been able to adapt to keep customers in stores for longer.
With uncertain economic conditions, consumers have been much more discerning about discretionary purchases in 2025 – but still crave the concept of treating themselves. Self-gifting has been on the rise for the past few holiday seasons, but 2025 signaled that even when consumers are more intentional about purchasing, they still crave that joy of the shopping experience.
Small indulgence categories have been on the rise or rebound since the second half of 2025. Beauty, in particular, saw a turn in its business as consumers became more discerning. Beauty has always been synonymous with challenging economic times for consumers, with the “lipstick index” often seen as a barometer for consumer sentiment. Beauty’s rebound could very well continue into 2026 if consumers look for those small ways to update their look and satisfy their need to shop.
Collectibles can also fit into the small indulgence category, especially with 2025’s hottest item, Labubu. Although the viral sensation from retailer POP MART became almost impossible to secure, the price point was attainable for most consumers. Similarly, Trade Joe’s viral mini tote bag also comes at a low price point, at $2.99, and consumers continue to flock to the brand’s stores to purchase during the bag's drops in spring and fall.
The pet category has also had a strong 2025 performance, which can somewhat be attributed to the small indulgence trend. Consumers tend to pull back on self-purchasing, but will often limit the impact felt by pets or children. The pet category has not seen much change in consumer behavior and this trend is likely to continue into 2026.
At the start of 2026, discretionary retail has not so much rebounded as recalibrated. The year revealed a consumer who is highly informed, highly selective, and increasingly comfortable walking away – forcing retailers to compete not just on price or promotion, but on relevance. The winners were not those that chased volume at all costs, but those that clearly articulated why they exist, who they serve, and what role they play in consumers’ lives.
Looking ahead to 2026, the forces that shaped this year – income bifurcation, cautious spending, and the prioritization of emotional value – are likely to intensify. Retailers operating in the middle will face the greatest test, as consumers continue to polarize between value-seeking and premium experiences. Growth will likely come from precision: sharper assortments, clearer brand positioning, and formats that respect both consumers’ financial realities and their desire for moments of joy.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Between May of 2021 and November of 2025, The Home Depot saw year-over-year (YoY) visits down 50 of 55 months. The initial downturn was likely driven by the intense pull forward of demand during the pandemic, while the latter struggles were driven by a combination of economic headwinds and sector specific challenges. But, however you contextualize the issues, the result was an average monthly decline of 3.6% YoY from May 2021 to April 2025, despite the final months of that period taking place during the retailer’s normal annual visit peak.
But, there were also very positive signs during that period. The weeks prior to Liberation Day saw YoY visit increases of 2.5% and 4.6%, before tariff concerns drove significant declines, and those declines continued with 14 of the next 15 weeks seeing YoY visit drops.
So where are the signs of a sleeping giant?
For one, visits are getting better. The visit gap between May and November 2025 shrunk to just 0.5% – essentially flat.
Then November saw a visit jump of 3.8%, and the strength was part of a sustained effort, with the eight week period from October 20th to the week beginning December 9th seeing consistent YoY visit increases.
In addition, this strength during the holiday period gives added emphasis to the thinking that Home Depot’s return to growth could have been much earlier were it not for the tariff obstacles that appeared in March and April.
Great brand, clear market leadership and smoother sailing? Sounds like a recipe for a 2026 winner.
In the first half of 2025, Starbucks monthly visits were down 0.6% on average. In the first five months of the second half, that number jumped to being up 1.6%, including a 14 week period between September 1st and the week beginning December 1st where the coffee giant saw visits up 12 of 14 weeks driving October and November visits up 3.2% on average YoY. For context, Q4 2024 was down 2.9% YoY.
The takeaway?
There was real reason to be excited about the directional shifts CEO Brian Niccol built his Back to Starbucks strategy around. The concepts resonated and hearkened back to a Starbucks experience that would leverage its unique brand and status. But ultimately, the excitement needed to center around the belief that these strategies could work and be executed effectively.
The last few months have been a powerful indication that those who held this belief were justified. Visits didn’t improve because of strong coffee headwinds, they improved because Starbucks did what they do best – they owned the calendar and leveraged their creativity and brand to drive huge visit spikes. Cups – whether of the Red or Bearista variety – and menu shifts including the epic annual PSL launch drove visit surges, and the chain's massive footprint positioned it to dominate on major shopping days like Black Friday.
TLDR – the new strategy sounded exciting, there’s real evidence that it’s working, and the chain has maintained its unique hold on the calendar and an industry leading ability to drive urgency and visits almost at the flick of a switch. Lots of reasons to expect the Starbucks recovery to continue gaining momentum.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Craft retailers – one of the top destinations for purchasing holiday decor – posted impressive year-over-year (YoY) gains this holiday season: AI-powered location analytics reveals that visits to industry leaders Michaels and Hobby Lobby were up YoY by double-digits almost every week of the holiday season. And while some of these chains' success is likely due to the reduced competition – with Party City having ceased its operations earlier this year – the strong growth also suggests that, despite digital competition, the demand for physical browsing and festive inspiration remains high.
We dove into the data to analyze how the holiday decor market is evolving.
The 2025 closures of Party City and JOANN consolidated the crafting sector, leaving Michaels and Hobby Lobby with fewer competitors and driving up YoY visits. This market shift proved particularly advantageous in Q4 as shoppers seeking Halloween decorations and holiday trimmings flocked to the remaining specialty retailers.
But Michaels and Hobby Lobby's success is due to more than just a market consolidation – the two chains have cemented themselves as premier destinations for holiday home decor. And while these retailers have traditionally relied on families looking to fill suburban homes with seasonal cheer, AI-powered location analytics reveal that younger, more urban shoppers are also fueling the holiday traffic boost.
Focusing on October and November data reveals that both chains saw the share of "households with children" in their captured market dip between 2024 and 2025, while the share of Young Professionals and Young Urban Singles increased. This suggests that at least some of the holiday decorating in 2025 was fueled not just by family traditions, but also by a younger generation curating their spaces with viral, budget-friendly finds.
While the exit of competitors like Party City and JOANN cleared the playing field in 2025, Michaels and Hobby Lobby's success is due to more than just absorbing the displaced demand. By capturing a new wave of young, urban shoppers hunting for viral trends, these retailers have proven that holiday décor is no longer solely the domain of suburban families. This successful pivot from traditional utility to trend-driven destination suggests that the craft sector isn't just surviving the retail shakeout; it is effectively reshaping itself for a new generation of consumers.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
7 Brew Coffee may be the fastest-growing coffee chain in the US right now. The chain surged from just 14 locations at the start of 2022 to around 500 locations by October 2025. And average visits per location also increased significantly – indicating that despite the breakneck expansion, the drive-thru brand still has significant runway left to grow.
The chain's hypergrowth has been fueled by significant capital, including an equity investment from Blackstone in 2024 and a massive franchise agreement with the Flynn Group to develop an additional 160 stores. With a modular building model that allows for rapid deployment, 7 Brew is positioned to aggressively challenge major drive-thru competitors like Dutch Bros and Scooter's Coffee.
7 Brew's success can also be linked to a broader rise in drive-thru-centric coffee concepts. The chart below illustrates the shifting category dynamics in recent years as leading drive-thru coffee chains – with Dutch Bros in the lead – commanding a growing share of overall coffee visits since 2019.
Even amid the broader rise of drive-thru coffee chains, 7 Brew’s growth continues to stand out. While the brand still holds a relatively small share of the overall coffee market, the brand’s proportional growth outpaces its peers, reflecting both aggressive unit expansion and strong consumer adoption. The chart also underscores how 7 Brew is increasingly carving out space within a segment historically dominated by brands like Dutch Bros – suggesting meaningful long-term competitive potential.
With drive-thru coffee continuing to surge in popularity and consumers gravitating toward convenience-forward formats, 7 Brew is well positioned to continue capturing incremental market share and solidifying its status as one of the fastest-rising brands in the category.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Grabbing a coffee or snack at a convenience store is a time-honored road trip tradition – but increasingly, Convenience Stores (C-Stores) have also emerged as places people go out of their way to visit.
Convenience stores have thrived in recent years, making inroads into the discretionary dining space and growing both their audiences and their sales. Between April 2023 and March 2024, C-Stores experienced consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, generally outperforming Overall Retail. Unsurprisingly, C-Stores fell behind Overall Retail in November and December 2023, when holiday shoppers flocked to malls and superstores to buy gifts for loved ones. But in January 2024, the segment regained its lead, growing YoY visits even as Overall Retail languished in the face of an Arctic blast that had many consumers hunkering down at home.
C-Stores’ current strength is partially due to the significant innovation by leading players in the space: Chains like Casey’s, Maverik, Buc-ee’s, and Rutter’s are investing in both in their product offerings and in their physical venues to transform the humble C-Store from a stop along the way into a bona fide destination. Dive into the data to explore some of the key strategies helping C-Stores drive consumer engagement and stay ahead of the pack.
While chain expansion may explain some of the C-Store segment growth, a look at visit-per-location trends shows that demand is growing at the store level as well. Over the past year (April 2023 to March 2024), average visits per location on an industry-wide basis grew by 1.8%, compared to the year prior (April 2022 to 2023).
And within this growing segment, some brands are distinguishing themselves and outperforming category averages. Casey’s, for example, saw the average number of visits to each of its locations increase by 2.3% over the same time frame – while Maverik, Buc-ee’s and Rutter’s saw visits per location increase by 3.2%, 3.4% and 3.9%, respectively.
Each in its own way, Casey’s, Maverik, Buc-ee’s, and Rutter’s, are helping to transform C-Stores from pit stops where people can stretch their legs and grab a cup of coffee to destinations in and of themselves.
Midwestern gas and c-store chain Casey’s – famous for its breakfast pizza and other grab-and-go breakfast items – has emerged as a prime spot for fast food pizza lovers to grab a slice first thing in the morning. And Salt Lake City, Utah-based Maverik – which recently acquired Kum & Go and its 400-plus stores – is also establishing itself as a breakfast destination thanks to its specialty burritos and other chef-inspired creations.
Casey’s and Maverik’s popular breakfast options are likely helping the chains receive its larger-than-average share of morning visits: In Q1 2024, 16.3% of visits to Maverik and 17.5% of visits to Casey’s took place during the 7:00 AM - 10:00 AM daypart, compared to just 14.9% of visits to the wider C-Store category.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – also suggests that Casey’s and Maverik’s have opened stores in locations that allow them to reach their target audience. Compared to the average consumer, residents of Casey’s potential market are 7% more likely to be “Fast Food Pizza Lovers” than both the average consumer and the average C-Store trade area resident. Residents of Maverik’s potential market are 16% more likely than the average consumer to be “Mexican Food Enthusiasts,” compared to residents of the average C-Store’s trade area who are only 1% more likely to fall into that category.
With both chains expanding, Casey’s and Maverik can hope to introduce new audiences to their unique breakfast options and solidify their hold over the morning daypart within the C-Store space over the next few years.
Everything is said to be bigger in the Lone Star State, and Texas-based convenience store chain Buc-ee’s – holder of the record for the worlds’ largest C-Store – is no exception. With a unique array of specialty food items and award-winning bathrooms, Buc-ee’s has emerged as a well-known tourist attraction. And the popular chain’s status as a visitor hotspot is reflected in two key metrics.
First, Buc-ee’s attracts a much greater share of weekend visits than other convenience store chains. In Q1 2024, 39.6% of visits to Buc-ee’s took place on the weekends, compared to just 28.3% for the wider C-Store industry. And second, Buc-ee’s captured markets feature higher-than-average shares of family-centric households – including those belonging to Experian: Mosaic’s Suburban Style, Flourishing Families, and Promising Families segments.
Rather than merely a place to stop on the way to work, Buc-ee’s has emerged as a favored destination for families and for people looking for something fun to do on their days off.
Buc-ee’s isn’t the only C-Store chain that believes bigger is better. Pennsylvania-based Rutter’s is increasing visits and customer dwell time by expanding its footprint – both in terms of store count and venue size. New stores will be 10,000 to 12,000 square feet – significantly larger than the industry average of around 3,100 square feet. And in more urban areas, where space is at a premium, the company is building upwards.
Rutter’s added a second floor to one of its existing locations in York, PA in December 2023. The remodel, which was met with enthusiasm by customers, provided additional seating for up to 30 diners, a beer cave, and an expanded wine selection. And in Q1 2024, the location experienced 15.6% YoY visit growth – compared to a chainwide average of 7.6%. Visitors to the newly remodeled Rutter’s also stayed significantly longer than they did pre-renovation. The share of extended visits to the store (longer than ten minutes) grew from 20.8% in Q1 2023 to 27.0% in Q1 2024 – likely from people browsing the chain’s selection of beers or grabbing a bite to eat.
Convenience stores are flourishing, transforming into some of the most exciting dining and tourist destinations in the country. Today, C-Store customers can expect to find brisket sandwiches, gourmet coffees, or craft beers, rather than the stale cups of coffee of old. And the data shows that customers are receptive to these innovations, helping drive the segment’s success.
The first quarter of 2024 was generally a good one for retailers. Though unusually cold and stormy weather left its mark on the sector’s January performance, February and March saw steady year-over-year (YoY) weekly visit growth that grew more robust as the quarter wore on.
March ended on a high note, with the week of March 25th – including Easter Sunday – seeing a 6.1% YoY visit boost, driven in part by increased retail activity in the run-up to the holiday. (Last year, Easter fell on April 9th, 2023, so the week of March 25th is being compared to a regular week.)
Though prices remain high and consumer confidence has yet to fully regain its footing, retail’s healthy Q1 showing may be a sign of good things to come in 2024.
Drilling down into the data for leading retail segments demonstrates the continued success of value-priced, essential, and wellness-related categories.
Discount & Dollar Stores led the pack with 11.2% YoY quarterly visit growth, followed by Grocery Stores, Fitness, and Superstores – all of which outperformed Overall Retail. Dining also enjoyed a YoY quarterly visit bump, despite the segment’s largely discretionary nature. And despite the high interest rates continuing to weigh on the housing and home renovation markets, Home Improvement & Furnishings maintained just a minor YoY visit gap.
Discount & Dollar Stores experienced strong YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – and as go-to destinations for groceries and other other essential goods, they held their own even during mid-January’s Arctic blast. In the last week of March, shoppers flocked to leading discount chains for everything from chocolate Easter bunnies to basket-making supplies – driving a remarkable 21.5% YoY visit spike.
Dollar General continued to dominate the Discount & Dollar Store space in Q1, with visits to its locations accounting for nearly half of the segment’s quarterly foot traffic (44.7%). Next in line was Dollar Tree, followed by Family Dollar and Five Below. Together, the four chains – all of which experienced positive YoY quarterly visit growth – drew a whopping 91.6% of quarterly visits to the category.
Rain or shine, people have to eat. And like Discount & Dollar Stores, traditional Grocery Stores were relatively busy through January as shoppers braved the storms to stock up on needed items. Momentum continued to build throughout the quarter, culminating in a 10.5% foot traffic increase in the week ending with Easter Sunday.
Like in other categories, it was budget-friendly Grocery banners that took the lead. No-frills Aldi drove a chain-wide 24.4% foot traffic increase in Q1, by expanding its fleet – while also growing the average number of visits per location. Other value-oriented chains, including Trader Joe’s and Food Lion, experienced significant foot traffic increases of their own. And though conventional grocery leaders like H-E-B, Kroger, and Albertsons saw smaller visit bumps, they too outperformed Q1 2023 by meaningful margins.
January is New Year’s resolution season – when people famously pick themselves up off the couch, dust off their trainers, and vow to go to the gym more often. And with wellness still top of mind for many consumers, the Fitness category enjoyed robust YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – despite lapping a strong Q1 2023.
Predictably, Fitness’s visit growth slowed during the last week of March, when many Americans likely indulged in Easter treats rather than work out. But given the category’s strength over the past several years, there is every reason to believe it will continue to flourish.
For Fitness chains, too, cost was key to success in Q1 – with value gyms experiencing the biggest visit jumps. EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, both of which offer low-cost membership options, saw their Q1 visits skyrocket 28.9% and 22.0% YoY, respectively – helped in part by aggressive expansions. At the same time, premium and mid-range gyms like Life Time and LA Fitness are also finding success – showing that when it comes to Fitness, there’s plenty of room for a variety of models to thrive.
Superstores – including wholesale clubs – are prime destinations for big, planned shopping expeditions – during which customers can load up on a month’s supply of food items or stock up on home goods. And perhaps for this reason, the category felt the impact of January’s inclement weather more than either dollar chains or supermarkets – which are more likely to see shoppers pop in as needed for daily essentials.
But like Grocery Stores and Discount & Dollar Stores, Superstores ended the quarter with an impressive YoY visit spike, likely fueled by Easter holiday shoppers.
As in Q4 2023, membership warehouse chains – Costco Wholesale, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club – drove much of the Superstore category’s positive visit growth, as shoppers likely engaged in mission-driven shopping in an effort to stretch their budgets. Still, segment mainstays Walmart and Target also enjoyed positive foot traffic growth, with YoY visits up 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively.
Moving into more discretionary territory, Dining experienced a marked January slump, as hunkered-down consumers likely opted for delivery. But the segment rallied in February and March, even though foot traffic dipped slightly during the last week of March, when many families gathered to enjoy home-cooked holiday meals.
Coffee Chains and Fast-Casual Restaurants saw the largest YoY visit increases, followed by QSR – highlighting the enduring power of lower-cost, quick-serve dining options. But Full-Service Restaurants (FSR) also saw a slight segment-wide YoY visit uptick in Q1 – good news for a sector that has yet to bounce back from the one-two punch of COVID and inflation. Within each Dining category, however, some chains experienced outsize visit growth – including favorites like Dutch Bros. Coffee, Slim Chickens, In-N-Out Burger, and Texas Roadhouse.
Since the shelter-in-place days of COVID – when everybody had their sourdough starter and DIY was all the rage – Home Improvement & Furnishings chains have faced a tough environment. Many deferred or abandoned home improvement projects in the wake of inflation, and elevated interest rates coupled with a sluggish housing market put a further damper on the category.
Against this backdrop, Home Improvement & Furnishings’ relatively lackluster Q1 visit performance should come as no surprise. But the narrowing of the visit gap in March – which also saw one week of positive visit growth – may serve as a promising sign for the segment. (The abrupt foot traffic drop during the week of March 25th, 2024 is likely a just reflection of Easter holiday shopping pattern.)
Within the Home Improvement & Furnishings space, some bright spots stood out in Q1 – including Harbor Freight Tools, which saw visits increase by 10.0%, partly due to the brand’s growing store count. Tractor Supply Co., Menards, and Ace Hardware also registered visit increases.
January 2024’s stormy weather left its mark on the Q1 retail environment, especially for discretionary categories. But as the quarter progressed, retailers rallied, with healthy YoY foot traffic growth that peaked during the last week of March – the week of Easter Sunday. All in all, retail’s positive Q1 performance leaves plenty of room for optimism about what’s in store for the rest of 2024.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Over the past year, Fast-Casual & Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) chains have thrived, consistently outperforming the Full-Service Dining segment with positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth every quarter since 2023. In this white paper, we dive into the data for leading dining chains to take a closer look at what’s driving visitors to the QSR segment and what other dining categories can learn from fast-food’s success.
One of the key factors separating QSR chains – aptly known as “fast food” – from the rest of the dining industry is the speed at which diners can get a ready-to-eat meal in their hands. And within the QSR space, speed of service is one of the ways chains differentiate themselves from their competition.
Leading fast-food chains are investing heavily in technologies and systems designed to help them serve customers ever more quickly:
Taco Bell’s “Touch Display Kitchen System” is designed to optimize cooking operations and improve wait times, while the chain’s Go Mobile restaurant format seeks to alleviate bottlenecks in the drive-thru lane. Chick-fil-A also has dedicated channels for quick mobile order pick-up and is planning four-lane drive-thrus with second-floor kitchens to get meals out even faster. And to save time at the drive-thru, Wendy’s is experimenting with generative AI and developing an underground, robotic system to deliver digital orders to designated parking spots within seconds.
And location intelligence shows that all three chains are succeeding in reducing customer wait times. Over the past four years, Taco Bell, Chick-fil-A, and Wendy’s have seen steady increases in the share of visits to their venues lasting less than 10 minutes.
The data also suggests that investment in speed of service can increase overall visitation to QSR venues.
In late 2022, McDonald’s opened a to-go-only location outside of Dallas, TX with a lane dedicated to mobile order fulfillment via a conveyor belt. And in Q1 2024, this venue not only had a larger share of short visits compared to the other McDonald’s locations in the region, but also more visits compared to the McDonald’s average visits per venue in the Dallas-Fort Worth CBSA.
This provides further support for the power of fast order fulfillment to drive QSR visits, with customers motivated by the prospect of getting in and out quickly.
The success of the fast-food segment is even driving other restaurants to borrow typical QSR formats – especially during time slots when people are most likely to grab a bite to eat on the go.
In September 2023, full-service leader Applebee’s opened a new format: a fast casual location focusing on To Go orders in Deer Park, NY, featuring pick-up lockers for digital orders and limited dine-in options without table service.
And the new format is already attracting outsized weekday and lunchtime crowds. In Q1 2024, 20.5% of visits to the chain’s To Go venue took place during the 12:00 PM - 2:00 PM time slot, while the average Applebee’s in the New York-Newark-Jersey City CBSA received less than 10% of its daily visits during that daypart. The new restaurant also drew a significantly higher share of weekday visits than other nearby venues.
This suggests that takeaway-focused venues could help full-service chains grow their visit share during weekdays and the coveted lunch rush, when consumers may be less inclined to have a sit-down meal.
An additional factor contributing to QSR and Fast Casual success in 2024 may be the rise of chicken-based chains. Chicken is a versatile ingredient that has remained relatively affordable, which could be contributing to its growing popularity and the rapid expansion of several chicken chains.
Comparing the relative visit share (not including delivery) of various sub-segments within the wider Fast Casual & QSR space showed that the share of visits to chains with chicken-based menus has increased steadily between 2019 and 2023: In Q1 2024, 15.3% of Fast Casual & QSR visits were to a chicken restaurant concept, compared to just 13.4% in Q1 2019.
The strength of chicken-based concepts is also evident when comparing average visits per venue at leading chicken chains with the wider Fast Casual & QSR average.
Both Chick-fil-A, the nation’s predominant chicken chain, and Raising Cane’s, a rapidly expanding player in the fast-food chicken space, are receiving significantly more visits per venue than their Fast Casual & QSR peers: In Q1 2024, Raising Cane’s and Chick-fil-A restaurants saw an average of 153.0% and 237.7% more visits per venue, respectively, compared to the combined Fast Casual & QSR industries average.
The elevated traffic at chicken chains likely plays a part in their profitability per restaurant relative to other Fast Casual & QSR concepts with more sizable fleets.
QSR and Fast-Casual chains are also particularly adept at generating seasonal visit spikes through unique Limited Time Offers and holiday promotions adapted to the calendar.
Arby’s recently launched a 2 for $6 sandwich promotion on February 1st, with two of the three sandwich options on promotion being fish-based in an apparent attempt to entice diners eschewing meat in observance of Lent. The company also brought back a specialty fish sandwich, likely with the goal of further appealing to the Lent-observing demographic.
The offers seem to have driven significant traffic spikes, with foot traffic during the promotion period significantly higher than the January daily visit average. And traffic was particularly elevated during Lent – which this year fell on Wednesday, February 14th through Thursday, March 28th, with visits spiking on Fridays when those observing are most likely to seek out fish-based meals.
Some of the elevated visits in the second half of Q1 may be attributed to the comparison to a weaker January across the dining segment. But the success of the fish-forward promotion specifically during Lent suggests that the company’s calendar-appropriate LTO played a major role in driving visits to the chain.
Shorter-term promotions – even those lasting just a single day – can also drive major visit spikes.
Since 1991, White Castle has transformed its fast-food restaurants into a reservation-only, “fine-dining” experience for dinner on Valentine's Day. In 2024, Valentine’s Day fell on a Wednesday, and White Castle’s sit-down event drove a 11.8% visit increase relative to the average Wednesday in Q1 2024 and a 3.9% visit increase compared to the overall Q1 2024 daily average.
The elevated visit numbers over Valentine’s Day are even more impressive when considering that a full-service dining room can accommodate fewer visitors than the drive-thrus and counter service of White Castle’s typical QSR configuration. The spike in February 14th visits may also be attributed to an increased number of diners showing up throughout the day to take in the Valentine’s Day buzz.
QSR and Fast-Casual dining are having a moment. And the data shows that a combination of factors – including fast and efficient service, the rising popularity of chicken-based dining concepts, and effective LTOs – are all playing a part in the categories’ recent success.
