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Wingstop and Shake Shack are on a roll. We dove into recent location intelligence data to understand what is driving success at these two dining leaders.
Texas-based Wingstop and New York-based Shake Shack are growing fast. Over the past twelve months, both chains outperformed the fast casual segment and posted impressive traffic increases – in March 2024, visits to Wingstop and Shake Shack were up 25.6% and 32.6%, respectively, compared to March 2023.
Some of the visit strength is likely driven by the chains’ recent expansion. Last year, Wingstop opened around 200 of its almost 2000 U.S. locations, while Shake Shack opened around 40 new restaurants domestically for a total of more than 300 locations in December 2023.
A rapidly expanding footprint is not the only factor driving success for these fast casual leaders. Location intelligence suggests that both chains attract visitors looking for a more leisurely dining experience, which could be helping Wingstop and Shake Shack stay ahead of the competition.
Compared to the average fast-casual dining venue, Wingstop and Shake Shack receive fewer visits during the lunch rush (12:00 to 2:59 PM) when diners are looking for a quick bite to eat before returning to work. Instead, the two chains attract a larger share of visits in the evening hours (between 7:00 and 9:59 PM) – when guests tend to have more time to savor their meals. Both chains also receive a relatively sizable portion of their visits on weekends, when patrons have more time to linger on premises.
And the data indicates that Shake Shack and Wingstop visitors do indeed linger longer than the average fast casual patron: Over half of visits to Wingstop and almost two-thirds of Shake Shack visits last longer than 15 minutes, compared to just 48.2% of visits lasting 15+ minutes for the wider fast casual segment.
It seems, then, that consumers are not just visiting Shake Shack or Wingstop for a burger and shake combo or a platter of steaming wings. The data suggests that many guests are also visiting these chains during more leisurely times when they can focus on the dining experience and take in the chains’ atmosphere.
As the companies continue to expand into new markets and deepen their reach in existing ones, the willingness of consumers to dedicate evenings and weekends to eating at Shake Shack and Wingstop bodes well for these chains in 2024 – and beyond.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
We recently looked at where the home improvement retail category stood after 1Q 2024, noting that industry had seen improved visit trends and that we could see continued momentum in the second half of 2024 as housing turnover picks up. As a follow up to that analysis, we thought we’d examine a wider range of retailers in the home improvement retail category. Below, we’ve presented year-over-year visitation trends for the top retailers in the home improvement category in terms of visits. While Home Depot and Lowe’s are down on a year-over-year basis, we see that a number of smaller box chains like Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware are seeing year-over-year visits (Large-box Menards has also been relatively strong).
The trend of smaller box home improvement retailers outperforming has actually been going on for a while. Below, we show share visit data from 2017-2023 for the largest home improvement retailers. Here we also see big gains from Ace Hardware and Harbor Freight
What explains these trends? We believe a lot of it boils down to store expansion and migration trends. Both chains have been growing. We discussed Ace Hardware’s unit growth plans back in November 2022, with the chain reaching 5,800 stores globally (and more than 4,700 in the U.S.) after opening 160 locations in 2022 and 170 in 2023. We’ve also called out Harbor Freight’s recent growth–it was one of the reasons we named it to our Top 10 Brands to watch list this year–and the chain now operates almost 1,500 locations across the U.S. Below, using Placer’s new Map Studio feature to plot Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware locations nationwide. We see a heavy concentration of stores in the Eastern U.S. for both chains.
We’ve also presented a map from Placer’s Migration Report below showing population percentage growth from January 2020 to January 2024 at the market level. Green dots represent markers that have seen permanent population growth, while red represents markets that have seen population declines.
Examining the two maps together sheds some light on the success of Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware–they have a high degree of overlap with some of the highest growth markets in the U.S. We’ve covered the migration of consumers to these markets in the past, including markets have populations smaller than 500,000 people and often under 200,000 individuals. Here, having a smaller format box is an advantage for chains like Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware. Home Depot and Lowe’s both average more than 100,000 square feet per store, which can be difficult to justify in a smaller population market. However, the average Harbor Freight store is 15,000-16,500 square feet and the average Ace Hardware is 10,000 square feet (although ranging between 3,000 and 30,000 square feet). This has allowed both chains to tap smaller markets where much of the population (and household income) has transferred to.
Not surprising, we’ve seen a flood of announcements about retail chains planning to adopt smaller store formats over the past few months. We’ve previously discussed examples across a number of retail categories, including home furnishing (Arhaus and Ethan Allen) and department stores (Bloomie’s), but there has been a notable uptick in announcements from retailers unveiling smaller format stores, including Best Buy, Macy’s, and Whole Foods. Lowe’s has recognized this trend, announcing plans to more aggressively open stores in rural markets.
At a time when it’s more expensive for retailers to operate physical stores due to higher interest rates, higher rent costs (especially among A malls properties), minimum wage increases and labor scarcity, retailers are looking for any way they can to maximize the returns on their store properties, including retail media networks, store-in-store partnerships, and co-branded stores. However, in addition to generating more revenue from ancillary services like advertising or store-in-store partnerships, it’s clear that utilizing a smaller box to address population migration trends has become an increasingly attractive option
Commercial real estate is constantly coming up with new and inventive concepts, and one of the latest ideas is the dog park bar. Chains such as Bark Social and Fetch Park are two such entrants that noted the rise in pet ownership during Covid, and are capitalizing on pet owners’ love for their dogs, as well as desire for human companionship and playdates for their canines.
These dog park bars combine the joy of seeing your furry friend run around with other dogs, while the owners can enjoy a cold frosty brew.
Fetch Park has five locations in Georgia, including Buckhead and Alpharetta. Meanwhile, Bark Social has locations in Baltimore, Bethesda, Alexandria, and Philadelphia, with upcoming plans for Los Angeles and Columbia.
Fetch Park includes events such as “Ales, Tails, and Trivia”, weekly karaoke nights, stand-up comedy, and even a singles’ mingle to meet other like-minded pooch people. Bark Social styles itself as a bar for dog lovers, and includes Bark Rangers that oversee puppy activities such as holding your pet’s first birthday party. There is even doggy daycare and summer camp available.
And in sunny LA, it’s not the San Vicente Bungalows or SoHo House that’s getting attention, it’s Dog PPL in Santa Monica, a private dog park whose $80/month membership lets your dog play in style. There are “ruffarrees” on hand to keep the calm while owners socialize and imbibe rosé or kombucha. It can even serve as a co-working location or gym substitute with its dog yoga classes.
Source: Dog PPL
If you’re in the Midwest, check out Barkside in Detroit. This 10,000 sq ft location in the West Village combines a dog park, bar, and beer garden all in one. There is a special focus on Detroit and Michigan brands when it comes to libations, which include beer, wine, spritzers, and a variety of coffee drinks.
And if you truly can’t part from your furry friend for even a minute, new BARK Air has partnered with a jet charter service and offers a Gulfstream V so you and your pet can travel in style. For the price of $6,000 one-way, amenities include dog champagne (aka chicken broth), special blankets and pillows, and delicious dog treats. This service is only available for NY, LA, and London jetsetters, but if this concept takes off and comes to more cities, that would truly be paw-some.
If there’s one sector of the retail industry that continues to innovate, evolve and perform at a high level, it’s convenience stores. Convenience chains remained in lock step with their consumers over the past few years, a difficult feat for many retailers, and benefited from suburban and rural migration patterns. 2023 was a banner year for C-Stores, with visits to large scale chains growing by 6% compared to 2022 (though some of the growth was due to chain consolidation).
C-Stores have done a fantastic job of attracting more visitors through additions like EV charging, local autonomous delivery, and expanded service offerings. However, the winning formula for many C-Store chains has been the bet on fresh, prepared and made to order foods. Chains have transformed consumer thinking around convenience driven foodservice and the concept has won over consumer’s appetites and wallets.
Chains that prioritize prepared foods have higher dwell times, more weekend visits and strong traffic growth according to our data. In a retail industry that prioritizes uniqueness in experience and product, more foodservice options clearly move the needle for visitors. Compared to the large chain C-store average dwell time of 10 minutes in Q1 2024, chains such as Buc-ee’s, Wawa, and Sheetz have higher dwell times by at least a minute, while chains associated with grab-and-go have shorter than average dwell times.
Looking a little more closely at Buc-ee’s, the darling of both the southeast and TikTok fame, the dwell time is double the average of large chain C-Stores. Buc-ee’s has the unique ability to blend entertainment, kitsch and prepared foods in a way that enchants visitors. Maybe it’s the chain’s Beaver Nuggets or the house-smoked barbeque, or its beloved mascot?
Buc-ee’s has the highest percentage of visits lasting 15 minutes or longer, and excels in visits between 15 and 45 minutes compared to other C-Store chains (below). More than half of the visits to Buc-ee’s occur between Friday-Sunday, more than any other competitor. Buc-ee’s can be seen as a destination C-Store as opposed to a daily stop due to the size and location of stores, which certainly contributes to the higher dwell time. Other C-Store chains looking to improve food offerings can use Buc-ee’s as a source of inspiration when it comes to breadth of assortment and mix of specialty packaged items and foodservice options.
The most surprising metrics come from Casey’s, a chain that has publicly committed to foodservice, but can’t seem to capture longer visits. Casey’s dwell time more closely mirrors that of grab-and-go chains like Maverik or Kwik Trip than it does Buc-ee’s or Wawa. Looking at the differences in demographic segments between Buc-ee’s, Wawa and Casey’s, Wawa and Buc-ee’s attract a visitor that is suburban, younger and more affluent than Casey’s. There may be a correlation between made to order offerings and suburban locations that’s benefitting chains focused on both.
The C-Store evolution is quickly blurring the lines between grocery, QSR and traditional convenience models, and is a bellwether of what’s to come across other sectors in retail. The bi-furcation of c-store formats is likely to accelerate throughout the remainder of 2024. Blending the right product selection, on-demand offerings and a beneficial experience for visitors is necessary in today’s retail climate.
Sprouts, the natural and organic food focused grocery chain operating in 23 states nationwide, is going through a growth spurt. We dove into the visit and audience data to see where the chain stands today and what the rest of 2024 – and beyond – may have in store.
Sprouts is on the rise. Year-over-year (YoY) visits increased every month of last year and have been outperforming the nationwide Grocery average since mid-2023. And the chain continued to grow in Q1 2024, with visits up an impressive 13.3% and 11.9% in February and March 2024, respectively – an impressive feat given the comparison to an already strong Q1 2023.
Some of the growth is driven by expansion – the company opened 30 new stores in 2023 and expects to add 35 additional locations in 2024. But the increase in foot traffic is also a testament to the potential of specialty grocery stores to leverage their unique product selection to attract grocery shoppers, even in the face of growing competition in the space.
The relatively high income of Sprout’s visitor base is likely also helping the chain stay ahead of the grocery pack: Median HHI in Sprout’s trade areas nationwide is higher than the U.S. median HHI, and the data shows a similar trend in Sprout’s eight growth markets.
The relative affluence of Sprouts shoppers means that this segment may not be as impacted by high food prices as other grocery shoppers – so the retail headwinds predicted this year are not likely to slow down Sprout’s growth potential as the chain continues expanding its reach in 2024.
While Sprouts’ visitors across states seem to share a relatively high income level, diving deeper into the location intelligence data reveals some major differences in both in-store behavior and overall market composition.
For example, the share of weekend (as opposed to weekday) visits to Sprouts in Q1 2024 varied significantly – from 31.3% in California to 36.6% in Virginia. Shoppers in the company’s various growth markets also visited stores at different hours throughout the day: Mornings (8:00 AM to 9:59 PM) were popular with California, Delaware, and Pennsylvania residents, while evenings were favored by Pennsylvanians, Floridians, and Texans.
Understanding the in-store behavior of shoppers in each state will likely help Sprouts adapt its operations and staffing schedules as the company continues expanding in these markets.
In addition to highlighting the variance between the shopping habits of Sprouts visitors across markets, diving deeper into the location intelligence data also reveals differences in the relationship between Sprouts shoppers and the wider grocery markets in each state.
The chart below shows the most popular grocery alternative for Sprouts shoppers in each state (which other grocery chain was the most visited by Sprouts visitors) and what share of Sprouts shoppers visited that grocery chain in Q1 2024.
In Florida, over 90% of Sprouts shoppers also visited a Publix location in Q1 2024 – indicating that Sprouts in the Sunshine State is operating in a relatively consolidated grocery market and operating against an established crowd favorite. Meanwhile, only 46.9% of Texan Sprouts visitors also visited a Kroger – the other grocery chain most visited by Sprouts visitors – indicating that the Texas grocery market may be more fragmented, and so may respond to a different expansion strategy, than the Florida grocery market.
Sprouts strong visitation trends indicate that the grocery chain is expanding into willing markets, and the brand’s relatively affluent shopper base means that Sprouts is unlikely to be too impacted by whatever economic headwinds may lie ahead. As the chain continues making its presence felt in newer markets, location intelligence suggests that Sprouts has plenty of room to grow in 2024 and beyond.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit our blog at placer.ai.
Crocs’ rebrand from ugly to chic is one of retail’s most fascinating Cinderella stories (glass clog, anyone?). We dive into the latest location analytics and demographic data to explore the consumer behavior that drives Crocs’ continued success.
Embarking on a journey to become a fashionable brand, in 2017 Crocs inked a partnership with Christopher Kane who became the first designer to collaborate with the brand. A stampede of designer and celebrity-inspired styles followed in 2018 and 2019 including Balenciaga's iconic ten-inch platform Croc and Post Malone's take on the classic clog.
During the pandemic, Crocs built on its success in fashion and celebrity circles, and gained a new following from comfort-first shoe shoppers stuck at home or running errands.
Taking a wide lens on Crocs’ foot traffic since 2018 shows how a strategy of designer partnerships as well as recognition as a functional shoe drives visits to the brand. In 2018 and 2019, as designer Crocs rolled out, visits to the brand climbed to new heights.
And since the wider retail reopening in 2021, Crocs’ foot traffic growth has accelerated as comfort reigns supreme in and out of the home.
Compared to a Q1 2018 baseline, Crocs saw its largest monthly visit peak in Q3 2023 (199.1%) – the critical summer period. And foot traffic in the most recent Q1 2024 was 43.7% above the Q1 2018 baseline. This indicates that the shoe’s acceptance within pop-culture combined with demand for comfortable footwear is elevating the brand’s traffic to new levels.
As Crocs continues to gain traction, the company appears to be pursuing a real estate strategy aimed at repositioning the brand as an affordable shoe for the whole family. Although Crocs shrank its store count in the years leading up to the pandemic, the brand has now begun opening new locations in outlet malls – five in 2023, with plans for 30 new stores in outlet malls in 2024.
Analyzing Crocs’ trade areas between 2018 and 2023 suggests that this strategy is helping the brand reach its audience. According to the STI: Popstats 2023 dataset, in 2018, there was a gap of more than $6K between the median household income (HHI) in Crocs’ potential market ($81.0K/year) and in its captured market ($74.7K/year). But by 2023, the median HHI of the brand’s potential market ($75.5K) and captured market ($75.9K) had more closely aligned. This indicates that by opening stores in outlet malls – where consumers looking for discounts are likely to shop – Crocs’ potential market more closely reflects its actual visitors and the brand can drive additional traffic from its target audience.
From humble beginnings, Crocs have become runway-famous. And yet, the clogs are more popular than ever with the everyday consumer – at home or out on the town. How will Crocs shape the next chapter of this foam fairytale?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Grabbing a coffee or snack at a convenience store is a time-honored road trip tradition – but increasingly, Convenience Stores (C-Stores) have also emerged as places people go out of their way to visit.
Convenience stores have thrived in recent years, making inroads into the discretionary dining space and growing both their audiences and their sales. Between April 2023 and March 2024, C-Stores experienced consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, generally outperforming Overall Retail. Unsurprisingly, C-Stores fell behind Overall Retail in November and December 2023, when holiday shoppers flocked to malls and superstores to buy gifts for loved ones. But in January 2024, the segment regained its lead, growing YoY visits even as Overall Retail languished in the face of an Arctic blast that had many consumers hunkering down at home.
C-Stores’ current strength is partially due to the significant innovation by leading players in the space: Chains like Casey’s, Maverik, Buc-ee’s, and Rutter’s are investing in both in their product offerings and in their physical venues to transform the humble C-Store from a stop along the way into a bona fide destination. Dive into the data to explore some of the key strategies helping C-Stores drive consumer engagement and stay ahead of the pack.
While chain expansion may explain some of the C-Store segment growth, a look at visit-per-location trends shows that demand is growing at the store level as well. Over the past year (April 2023 to March 2024), average visits per location on an industry-wide basis grew by 1.8%, compared to the year prior (April 2022 to 2023).
And within this growing segment, some brands are distinguishing themselves and outperforming category averages. Casey’s, for example, saw the average number of visits to each of its locations increase by 2.3% over the same time frame – while Maverik, Buc-ee’s and Rutter’s saw visits per location increase by 3.2%, 3.4% and 3.9%, respectively.
Each in its own way, Casey’s, Maverik, Buc-ee’s, and Rutter’s, are helping to transform C-Stores from pit stops where people can stretch their legs and grab a cup of coffee to destinations in and of themselves.
Midwestern gas and c-store chain Casey’s – famous for its breakfast pizza and other grab-and-go breakfast items – has emerged as a prime spot for fast food pizza lovers to grab a slice first thing in the morning. And Salt Lake City, Utah-based Maverik – which recently acquired Kum & Go and its 400-plus stores – is also establishing itself as a breakfast destination thanks to its specialty burritos and other chef-inspired creations.
Casey’s and Maverik’s popular breakfast options are likely helping the chains receive its larger-than-average share of morning visits: In Q1 2024, 16.3% of visits to Maverik and 17.5% of visits to Casey’s took place during the 7:00 AM - 10:00 AM daypart, compared to just 14.9% of visits to the wider C-Store category.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – also suggests that Casey’s and Maverik’s have opened stores in locations that allow them to reach their target audience. Compared to the average consumer, residents of Casey’s potential market are 7% more likely to be “Fast Food Pizza Lovers” than both the average consumer and the average C-Store trade area resident. Residents of Maverik’s potential market are 16% more likely than the average consumer to be “Mexican Food Enthusiasts,” compared to residents of the average C-Store’s trade area who are only 1% more likely to fall into that category.
With both chains expanding, Casey’s and Maverik can hope to introduce new audiences to their unique breakfast options and solidify their hold over the morning daypart within the C-Store space over the next few years.
Everything is said to be bigger in the Lone Star State, and Texas-based convenience store chain Buc-ee’s – holder of the record for the worlds’ largest C-Store – is no exception. With a unique array of specialty food items and award-winning bathrooms, Buc-ee’s has emerged as a well-known tourist attraction. And the popular chain’s status as a visitor hotspot is reflected in two key metrics.
First, Buc-ee’s attracts a much greater share of weekend visits than other convenience store chains. In Q1 2024, 39.6% of visits to Buc-ee’s took place on the weekends, compared to just 28.3% for the wider C-Store industry. And second, Buc-ee’s captured markets feature higher-than-average shares of family-centric households – including those belonging to Experian: Mosaic’s Suburban Style, Flourishing Families, and Promising Families segments.
Rather than merely a place to stop on the way to work, Buc-ee’s has emerged as a favored destination for families and for people looking for something fun to do on their days off.
Buc-ee’s isn’t the only C-Store chain that believes bigger is better. Pennsylvania-based Rutter’s is increasing visits and customer dwell time by expanding its footprint – both in terms of store count and venue size. New stores will be 10,000 to 12,000 square feet – significantly larger than the industry average of around 3,100 square feet. And in more urban areas, where space is at a premium, the company is building upwards.
Rutter’s added a second floor to one of its existing locations in York, PA in December 2023. The remodel, which was met with enthusiasm by customers, provided additional seating for up to 30 diners, a beer cave, and an expanded wine selection. And in Q1 2024, the location experienced 15.6% YoY visit growth – compared to a chainwide average of 7.6%. Visitors to the newly remodeled Rutter’s also stayed significantly longer than they did pre-renovation. The share of extended visits to the store (longer than ten minutes) grew from 20.8% in Q1 2023 to 27.0% in Q1 2024 – likely from people browsing the chain’s selection of beers or grabbing a bite to eat.
Convenience stores are flourishing, transforming into some of the most exciting dining and tourist destinations in the country. Today, C-Store customers can expect to find brisket sandwiches, gourmet coffees, or craft beers, rather than the stale cups of coffee of old. And the data shows that customers are receptive to these innovations, helping drive the segment’s success.
The first quarter of 2024 was generally a good one for retailers. Though unusually cold and stormy weather left its mark on the sector’s January performance, February and March saw steady year-over-year (YoY) weekly visit growth that grew more robust as the quarter wore on.
March ended on a high note, with the week of March 25th – including Easter Sunday – seeing a 6.1% YoY visit boost, driven in part by increased retail activity in the run-up to the holiday. (Last year, Easter fell on April 9th, 2023, so the week of March 25th is being compared to a regular week.)
Though prices remain high and consumer confidence has yet to fully regain its footing, retail’s healthy Q1 showing may be a sign of good things to come in 2024.
Drilling down into the data for leading retail segments demonstrates the continued success of value-priced, essential, and wellness-related categories.
Discount & Dollar Stores led the pack with 11.2% YoY quarterly visit growth, followed by Grocery Stores, Fitness, and Superstores – all of which outperformed Overall Retail. Dining also enjoyed a YoY quarterly visit bump, despite the segment’s largely discretionary nature. And despite the high interest rates continuing to weigh on the housing and home renovation markets, Home Improvement & Furnishings maintained just a minor YoY visit gap.
Discount & Dollar Stores experienced strong YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – and as go-to destinations for groceries and other other essential goods, they held their own even during mid-January’s Arctic blast. In the last week of March, shoppers flocked to leading discount chains for everything from chocolate Easter bunnies to basket-making supplies – driving a remarkable 21.5% YoY visit spike.
Dollar General continued to dominate the Discount & Dollar Store space in Q1, with visits to its locations accounting for nearly half of the segment’s quarterly foot traffic (44.7%). Next in line was Dollar Tree, followed by Family Dollar and Five Below. Together, the four chains – all of which experienced positive YoY quarterly visit growth – drew a whopping 91.6% of quarterly visits to the category.
Rain or shine, people have to eat. And like Discount & Dollar Stores, traditional Grocery Stores were relatively busy through January as shoppers braved the storms to stock up on needed items. Momentum continued to build throughout the quarter, culminating in a 10.5% foot traffic increase in the week ending with Easter Sunday.
Like in other categories, it was budget-friendly Grocery banners that took the lead. No-frills Aldi drove a chain-wide 24.4% foot traffic increase in Q1, by expanding its fleet – while also growing the average number of visits per location. Other value-oriented chains, including Trader Joe’s and Food Lion, experienced significant foot traffic increases of their own. And though conventional grocery leaders like H-E-B, Kroger, and Albertsons saw smaller visit bumps, they too outperformed Q1 2023 by meaningful margins.
January is New Year’s resolution season – when people famously pick themselves up off the couch, dust off their trainers, and vow to go to the gym more often. And with wellness still top of mind for many consumers, the Fitness category enjoyed robust YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – despite lapping a strong Q1 2023.
Predictably, Fitness’s visit growth slowed during the last week of March, when many Americans likely indulged in Easter treats rather than work out. But given the category’s strength over the past several years, there is every reason to believe it will continue to flourish.
For Fitness chains, too, cost was key to success in Q1 – with value gyms experiencing the biggest visit jumps. EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, both of which offer low-cost membership options, saw their Q1 visits skyrocket 28.9% and 22.0% YoY, respectively – helped in part by aggressive expansions. At the same time, premium and mid-range gyms like Life Time and LA Fitness are also finding success – showing that when it comes to Fitness, there’s plenty of room for a variety of models to thrive.
Superstores – including wholesale clubs – are prime destinations for big, planned shopping expeditions – during which customers can load up on a month’s supply of food items or stock up on home goods. And perhaps for this reason, the category felt the impact of January’s inclement weather more than either dollar chains or supermarkets – which are more likely to see shoppers pop in as needed for daily essentials.
But like Grocery Stores and Discount & Dollar Stores, Superstores ended the quarter with an impressive YoY visit spike, likely fueled by Easter holiday shoppers.
As in Q4 2023, membership warehouse chains – Costco Wholesale, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club – drove much of the Superstore category’s positive visit growth, as shoppers likely engaged in mission-driven shopping in an effort to stretch their budgets. Still, segment mainstays Walmart and Target also enjoyed positive foot traffic growth, with YoY visits up 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively.
Moving into more discretionary territory, Dining experienced a marked January slump, as hunkered-down consumers likely opted for delivery. But the segment rallied in February and March, even though foot traffic dipped slightly during the last week of March, when many families gathered to enjoy home-cooked holiday meals.
Coffee Chains and Fast-Casual Restaurants saw the largest YoY visit increases, followed by QSR – highlighting the enduring power of lower-cost, quick-serve dining options. But Full-Service Restaurants (FSR) also saw a slight segment-wide YoY visit uptick in Q1 – good news for a sector that has yet to bounce back from the one-two punch of COVID and inflation. Within each Dining category, however, some chains experienced outsize visit growth – including favorites like Dutch Bros. Coffee, Slim Chickens, In-N-Out Burger, and Texas Roadhouse.
Since the shelter-in-place days of COVID – when everybody had their sourdough starter and DIY was all the rage – Home Improvement & Furnishings chains have faced a tough environment. Many deferred or abandoned home improvement projects in the wake of inflation, and elevated interest rates coupled with a sluggish housing market put a further damper on the category.
Against this backdrop, Home Improvement & Furnishings’ relatively lackluster Q1 visit performance should come as no surprise. But the narrowing of the visit gap in March – which also saw one week of positive visit growth – may serve as a promising sign for the segment. (The abrupt foot traffic drop during the week of March 25th, 2024 is likely a just reflection of Easter holiday shopping pattern.)
Within the Home Improvement & Furnishings space, some bright spots stood out in Q1 – including Harbor Freight Tools, which saw visits increase by 10.0%, partly due to the brand’s growing store count. Tractor Supply Co., Menards, and Ace Hardware also registered visit increases.
January 2024’s stormy weather left its mark on the Q1 retail environment, especially for discretionary categories. But as the quarter progressed, retailers rallied, with healthy YoY foot traffic growth that peaked during the last week of March – the week of Easter Sunday. All in all, retail’s positive Q1 performance leaves plenty of room for optimism about what’s in store for the rest of 2024.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Over the past year, Fast-Casual & Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) chains have thrived, consistently outperforming the Full-Service Dining segment with positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth every quarter since 2023. In this white paper, we dive into the data for leading dining chains to take a closer look at what’s driving visitors to the QSR segment and what other dining categories can learn from fast-food’s success.
One of the key factors separating QSR chains – aptly known as “fast food” – from the rest of the dining industry is the speed at which diners can get a ready-to-eat meal in their hands. And within the QSR space, speed of service is one of the ways chains differentiate themselves from their competition.
Leading fast-food chains are investing heavily in technologies and systems designed to help them serve customers ever more quickly:
Taco Bell’s “Touch Display Kitchen System” is designed to optimize cooking operations and improve wait times, while the chain’s Go Mobile restaurant format seeks to alleviate bottlenecks in the drive-thru lane. Chick-fil-A also has dedicated channels for quick mobile order pick-up and is planning four-lane drive-thrus with second-floor kitchens to get meals out even faster. And to save time at the drive-thru, Wendy’s is experimenting with generative AI and developing an underground, robotic system to deliver digital orders to designated parking spots within seconds.
And location intelligence shows that all three chains are succeeding in reducing customer wait times. Over the past four years, Taco Bell, Chick-fil-A, and Wendy’s have seen steady increases in the share of visits to their venues lasting less than 10 minutes.
The data also suggests that investment in speed of service can increase overall visitation to QSR venues.
In late 2022, McDonald’s opened a to-go-only location outside of Dallas, TX with a lane dedicated to mobile order fulfillment via a conveyor belt. And in Q1 2024, this venue not only had a larger share of short visits compared to the other McDonald’s locations in the region, but also more visits compared to the McDonald’s average visits per venue in the Dallas-Fort Worth CBSA.
This provides further support for the power of fast order fulfillment to drive QSR visits, with customers motivated by the prospect of getting in and out quickly.
The success of the fast-food segment is even driving other restaurants to borrow typical QSR formats – especially during time slots when people are most likely to grab a bite to eat on the go.
In September 2023, full-service leader Applebee’s opened a new format: a fast casual location focusing on To Go orders in Deer Park, NY, featuring pick-up lockers for digital orders and limited dine-in options without table service.
And the new format is already attracting outsized weekday and lunchtime crowds. In Q1 2024, 20.5% of visits to the chain’s To Go venue took place during the 12:00 PM - 2:00 PM time slot, while the average Applebee’s in the New York-Newark-Jersey City CBSA received less than 10% of its daily visits during that daypart. The new restaurant also drew a significantly higher share of weekday visits than other nearby venues.
This suggests that takeaway-focused venues could help full-service chains grow their visit share during weekdays and the coveted lunch rush, when consumers may be less inclined to have a sit-down meal.
An additional factor contributing to QSR and Fast Casual success in 2024 may be the rise of chicken-based chains. Chicken is a versatile ingredient that has remained relatively affordable, which could be contributing to its growing popularity and the rapid expansion of several chicken chains.
Comparing the relative visit share (not including delivery) of various sub-segments within the wider Fast Casual & QSR space showed that the share of visits to chains with chicken-based menus has increased steadily between 2019 and 2023: In Q1 2024, 15.3% of Fast Casual & QSR visits were to a chicken restaurant concept, compared to just 13.4% in Q1 2019.
The strength of chicken-based concepts is also evident when comparing average visits per venue at leading chicken chains with the wider Fast Casual & QSR average.
Both Chick-fil-A, the nation’s predominant chicken chain, and Raising Cane’s, a rapidly expanding player in the fast-food chicken space, are receiving significantly more visits per venue than their Fast Casual & QSR peers: In Q1 2024, Raising Cane’s and Chick-fil-A restaurants saw an average of 153.0% and 237.7% more visits per venue, respectively, compared to the combined Fast Casual & QSR industries average.
The elevated traffic at chicken chains likely plays a part in their profitability per restaurant relative to other Fast Casual & QSR concepts with more sizable fleets.
QSR and Fast-Casual chains are also particularly adept at generating seasonal visit spikes through unique Limited Time Offers and holiday promotions adapted to the calendar.
Arby’s recently launched a 2 for $6 sandwich promotion on February 1st, with two of the three sandwich options on promotion being fish-based in an apparent attempt to entice diners eschewing meat in observance of Lent. The company also brought back a specialty fish sandwich, likely with the goal of further appealing to the Lent-observing demographic.
The offers seem to have driven significant traffic spikes, with foot traffic during the promotion period significantly higher than the January daily visit average. And traffic was particularly elevated during Lent – which this year fell on Wednesday, February 14th through Thursday, March 28th, with visits spiking on Fridays when those observing are most likely to seek out fish-based meals.
Some of the elevated visits in the second half of Q1 may be attributed to the comparison to a weaker January across the dining segment. But the success of the fish-forward promotion specifically during Lent suggests that the company’s calendar-appropriate LTO played a major role in driving visits to the chain.
Shorter-term promotions – even those lasting just a single day – can also drive major visit spikes.
Since 1991, White Castle has transformed its fast-food restaurants into a reservation-only, “fine-dining” experience for dinner on Valentine's Day. In 2024, Valentine’s Day fell on a Wednesday, and White Castle’s sit-down event drove a 11.8% visit increase relative to the average Wednesday in Q1 2024 and a 3.9% visit increase compared to the overall Q1 2024 daily average.
The elevated visit numbers over Valentine’s Day are even more impressive when considering that a full-service dining room can accommodate fewer visitors than the drive-thrus and counter service of White Castle’s typical QSR configuration. The spike in February 14th visits may also be attributed to an increased number of diners showing up throughout the day to take in the Valentine’s Day buzz.
QSR and Fast-Casual dining are having a moment. And the data shows that a combination of factors – including fast and efficient service, the rising popularity of chicken-based dining concepts, and effective LTOs – are all playing a part in the categories’ recent success.
