.svg)
.avif)
The bifurcated consumer trends established in the second half of 2025 have persisted. While higher-income shoppers maintain relatively stable spending habits, lower- and middle-income households continue to feel the squeeze on essential categories like groceries and fuel. These consumers have become increasingly selective and price-sensitive, actively pivoting away from traditional mid-market chains in favor of discount retailers and value-oriented brands. Because affordability remains a core focus, average households are spreading their visits across a wider number of non-discretionary stores to hunt for deals. For example, our data shows that grocery visit growth is currently being driven by low- and middle-income households, as elevated food costs necessitate more frequent, budget-conscious trips.
However, despite this intense focus on everyday value, it would be a mistake to count out the discretionary sector, where consumer visits have also been mostly positive year-over-year (YoY) since the start of 2026. Despite weather-driven volatility, we continue to see healthy demand for discretionary categories as consumers start to put their tax refunds to work, actively seeking affordable indulgences and high-end brands at a discount.
E-commerce fulfillment centers are also seeing robust activity. Excluding a brief weather-related slump in late January, visits to these facilities are growing at a high-single to low-double-digit clip.
This surge in logistics activity is being driven by a perfect storm of consumer behavior and retail strategy: value-seeking shoppers, massive supply chain investments from giants like Walmart and Target, and the rise of frictionless "agentic" and social commerce. Furthermore, record-high product returns are forcing these centers to process a massive wave of reverse logistics, keeping facility utilization incredibly high.
As delayed tax refunds finally hit consumer bank accounts in the months ahead, we expect this strong e-commerce and fulfillment momentum to continue.
Manufacturing data has been highly volatile in early 2026. Placer.ai’s Industrial Manufacturing Index – which measures physical visits to manufacturing facilities across a wide range of verticals – showed an ebb and flow in the early weeks of the year. Severe winter storms heavily weighed on facility visits in late January, followed by a clear rebound in February.
This physical, on-the-ground improvement aligns with the latest macroeconomic indicators. According to the most recent ISM report, the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the second consecutive month in February, with the PMI registering a solid 52.4. Crucially, this growth is being driven by strong forward-looking demand, as the ISM New Orders Index remained firmly in expansion territory at 55.8. Ultimately, while underlying production and new orders show sustained momentum, unpredictable weather patterns continue to create short-term fluctuations in actual facility operations.
Looking ahead, volatility will likely be the baseline expectation for both the retail and manufacturing sectors throughout 2026. Unpredictable weather events, shifting supply chain dynamics, and the complexities of lapping 2025's macroeconomic hurdles will continue to create week-to-week fluctuations in physical foot traffic and industrial output.
Yet, beneath this turbulence lies a remarkably stable foundation: the American consumer. Despite the ongoing pressures of inflation and depleted household savings, shoppers remain incredibly resilient. They are highly strategic – pinching pennies on daily essentials and heavily utilizing value channels – precisely so they can continue to fund discretionary spending and lifestyle upgrades. The market may be volatile, but the 2026 consumer is proving that they are willing and able to spend when the value proposition is right.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
With its recent IPO, Bob’s Discount Furniture has officially entered a new chapter, stepping onto the public stage at a time when the home furnishings sector continues to face macroeconomic pressures. Yet despite these challenges, Bob’s has demonstrated notable momentum. This AI-powered data analysis takes a closer look at Bob’s performance, examining traffic trends, demographic positioning, and cross-shopping behavior to better understand what’s driving the company’s success.
Bob’s continued expansion supported year-over-year (YoY) visit increases throughout 2025 – but growth was not driven by footprint alone. Visits per location to the chain also climbed by 1.8% in 2025, indicating that existing stores captured incremental demand alongside new openings.
Analysis of Bob’s and the broader home furnishings category suggests that a favorable mix of value-oriented and affluent shoppers may be supporting the brand’s growth.
In 2025, the median household income of Bob’s captured market was $89.0K – below the category median of $92.5K, yet above the nationwide median of $79.6K. A similar pattern emerged when examining Bob’s audience by income groups. Among households earning under $100K and those earning over $150K, Bob’s share fell between the category benchmark and the national baseline.
This positioning suggests that while Bob’s resonates strongly with value-seeking consumers, its appeal is not limited to lower-income households – which could reflect the strength of its "Good, Better, Best" assortment strategy. As value-prioritization has gained traction across income levels, Bob’s appears to be attracting shoppers who are price-conscious yet still maintain discretionary spending power – a combination that is especially advantageous in a bigger-ticket category like furniture.
Reinforcing its position as a primary destination for furniture shoppers appears to be another factor fueling Bob’s growth.
AI-based location intelligence reveals that in 2025, the share of Bob’s visitors who also visited other major home furnishings chains declined compared to 2024. The shift was consistent across several key competitors, suggesting that fewer shoppers felt compelled to compare offerings at other chains before visiting Bob's Discount Furniture.
In a category where consumers frequently comparison-shop, declining cross-visitation may signal that Bob’s relaxed in-store environment – featuring the “Little Bob” sock-puppet and complementary cafés – is resonating with shoppers, reducing the incentive to look elsewhere.
These insights underscore Bob’s differentiated strategy within a volatile retail landscape. By combining disciplined expansion with broad cross-income appeal and brand loyalty, Bob’s is building both growth and resilience as it enters its public chapter.
Will Bob’s continue to find success in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Traffic to Darden banners remained relatively stable in 2025, with the company seeing an average increase of 1.2% in overall visits coupled with a slight dip of 0.3% in average visits per venue across its brands. Average visits per venue improved towards the end of the year relative to the annual average, growing 1.5% YoY in Q4 2025 – likely due to the closure of several Bahama Breeze restaurants in 2025, part of the company's plans to sunset the banner entirely by April 2026.
Analyzing traffic by banner points to clear resilience at the top of the market, with upscale casual and premium brands such as Yard House and Ruth's Chris Steakhouse generally showing the strongest and most consistent traffic growth. This pattern suggests that higher-income consumers remain relatively insulated and willing to spend, even amid broader volatility.
At the same time, LongHorn Steakhouse, one of Darden’s largest brands, also emerged as a standout performer, delivering steady positive traffic across multiple months. Given its scale within the portfolio, LongHorn likely made an outsized contribution to Darden’s overall positive traffic trends, helping to offset softness in other chains and reinforcing the company’s momentum.
Same-store YoY visit trends in recent months are very close to overall visit trends, suggesting that Darden’s traffic trends are largely same-store-driven rather than expansion-driven, with little evidence that unit growth is materially distorting overall traffic trends. Premium brands continue to perform well, and LongHorn is generating steady same-store growth across its large footprint, suggesting that Darden’s results are being driven by real consumer demand – especially among higher-income diners.
Darden’s results suggest that performance is being driven less by sheer scale and more by brand positioning, with concepts that offer either premium experiences or strong value perception (like LongHorn) capturing disproportionate demand. As consumer budgets remain tight, growth is likely to concentrate further in brands that clearly justify their price point – leaving middle-of-the-road concepts increasingly pressured to sharpen their value proposition or differentiate more meaningfully.
For up-to-date restaurant foot traffic, visit our free Industry Trends tool.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
.avif)
Shopping centers continued their growth streak in February 2026, with visits to all three formats – indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls – up year-over-year (YoY). After leading traffic gains in 2025, indoor malls took a back seat once again to open-air centers which led the category with a 7.3% YoY increase in February visits. Importantly, outlet malls followed closely behind with foot traffic up 7.2% YoY, after increasing 3.5% YoY in January 2026 – suggesting that the format is regaining momentum after its recent lull.
Even more notable is that when isolating the peak mall hours (11 AM to 8 PM), outlet malls led all formats in year-over-year visit growth across every daypart – 11 AM to 2 PM, 2 PM to 5 PM, and 5 PM to 8 PM. And while evening gains were strongest across all mall types, outlet malls posted the most significant increase during those hours.
This evening momentum may reflect a broader shift in how outlet centers are positioning themselves. Rather than serving solely as transactional shopping destinations, some are expanding their food and experiential offerings to encourage longer, more social visits. Recent examples include the addition of a craft beer truck at San Marcos Premium Outlets in Texas and the debut of a highly anticipated Japanese-Peruvian concept restaurant at Sawgrass Mills in Florida, which are likely drawing more leisure-oriented visitors to the centers.
Outlet mall's traffic softness in recent years likely reflected intensifying competition for value-driven apparel from off-price retailers and resale channels, which siphoned off some of the bargain-focused demand that traditionally fueled outlet visits. But if outlet malls can successfully differentiate through dining and experiential offerings – extending visits beyond purely transactional trips – they may be better positioned for a stronger 2026 as they compete on experience as well as price.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
With prices still elevated and consumer sentiment down significantly from last year, appetite for savings is stronger than ever. But as shoppers pull back on non-essentials, how are discretionary-oriented value chains like Five Below and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet holding up?
In its most recent reported quarter (ending November 1, 2025), Ollie’s delivered a 3.3% increase in same-store sales, driven by a mid-single-digit rise in transactions even as average ticket declined slightly. Five Below posted even stronger comp growth (+14.3%), fueled by both higher transaction counts and larger baskets.
And both chains saw solid year-over-year (YoY) overall traffic growth during the final months of 2025 – including the all-important holiday season – and into 2026. This performance suggests that even in a cautious consumer environment, demand for discretionary value remains resilient.
Customer loyalty is also increasing at both chains. For Ollie’s, which enjoys a slightly higher share of repeat visits, loyalty – fueled by its constantly shifting inventory of closeout merchandise – is further reinforced by the growing Ollie’s Army rewards program.
For Five Below, the gains appear to reflect the strength of its value positioning and evolving mix of affordable, fun indulgences – from seasonal décor to trendy toys – that create a steady cadence of newness and encourage frequent visits, even without a formal loyalty program.
And as both chains continue to grow, sustaining this repeat engagement will be critical to supporting comps and maximizing productivity across an expanding store base.
With traffic growth supported by a growing base of loyal customers, the discount segment appears well-positioned to maintain its edge into 2026. But how much runway remains before expansion begins to dilute store productivity?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Dollar General and Dollar Tree have both been thriving, delivering positive same-store comps for several quarters in a row even as they continue expanding their footprints. But how long can both keep winning? As the two chains grow, will the overlap between them begin to pressure performance?
Despite intensifying competition from mass merchants like Walmart, the data suggests that Dollar General and Dollar Tree still have meaningful runway for growth. Both retailers are expanding their footprints while maintaining traffic at existing stores – a sign of robust demand.
Dollar General, now a staple grocery destination for many households, posted mid- to high-single-digit same-store traffic gains between September 2025 and January 2026, even as it deepened its expansion into rural America. Meanwhile, Dollar Tree, which added more than 300 stores over the past year, maintained flat to modestly positive same-store traffic trends.
As price-conscious consumers prioritize value, overall demand for dollar stores appears to be expanding rather than simply shifting between banners.
Visitor behavior at the two chains helps explain why there is room for both to continue expanding. In addition to serving different geographies – Dollar General maintains a stronger presence in rural communities and in the eastern United States, while Dollar Tree has greater penetration in the West – the banners also fulfill different shopping missions.
As the chart below shows, 25.0% of Dollar General visitors in 2025 were frequent shoppers, defined as four or more visits in an average month, compared to just 9.2% at Dollar Tree. Average dwell time also diverged, with shoppers spending 20.0 minutes per visit at Dollar General versus 13.6 minutes at Dollar Tree.
Those patterns suggest that Dollar General functions as a routine essentials stop embedded in weekly shopping habits – a consumables-driven positioning that appears to be strengthening as the company expands large-format stores and invests further in fresh food offerings.
Dollar Tree, by contrast, plays a more targeted role, capturing shorter, mission-driven trips often tied to seasonal goods, party supplies, or discretionary bargains. And as it leans further into higher-ticket discretionary items through its multi-price 3.0 format – while also expanding its consumables assortment – the chain is reinforcing its treasure-hunt appeal while gradually becoming more relevant for routine trips.
All in all, the data points to a category that is expanding rather than consolidating. Consistent same-store visit growth, ongoing store expansion, and differentiated shopping behavior all suggest that Dollar General and Dollar Tree are thriving side by side – serving distinct missions within a shared value-driven ecosystem.
For more data-driven retail insights, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Return-to-office (RTO) trends have been closely watched over the past few years, with relevant stakeholders trying to puzzle out the impact remote and hybrid work have had on business operations and worker performance. And while visits to office buildings, overall, remain below pre-pandemic levels, office recovery varies from city to city – reflecting the complex and nuanced nature of regional economic trends, workforce preferences, and industry-specific needs.
This white paper harnesses location analytics to explore office recovery in the country’s second-largest economy – Los Angeles. The first part of the report is based on an analysis of foot traffic data from Placer.ai’s Los Angeles Office Index – an index comprising 100 office buildings in LA (including several in the greater metro area). The second part of the report broadens the lens to analyze visits by local employees to points of interest (POIs) corresponding to four major LA-area office districts: Century City, Downtown LA, Santa Monica, and Culver City. The white paper examines the impact that return-to-work mandates have had on visits to office buildings, discovers which demographic groups are driving the RTO, and explores the connection between commute time and return-to-office rates.
The return to office in Los Angeles has consistently lagged behind other major cities, underperforming nationwide recovery levels since the pandemic ground in-office work to a virtual halt. Still, the city’s office buildings are seeing a steady increase in visits, with foot traffic tending to spike at the beginning of each year. This indicates that even though office visits in LA are still below national averages, they are on a steady growth trajectory – a promising sign for stakeholders in the city.
A closer examination of Los Angeles office buildings also shows that despite the overall lag, some top-performing buildings in the LA metro area are defying the odds. Visits to the 20 local office buildings with the narrowest Q2 2024 post-COVID visit gaps were down just 8.7% in June 2024 compared to January 2019 – significantly outperforming the nationwide average.
So while overall office recovery in the city is still behind nationwide trends, these top-performing buildings indicate an optimistic outlook for the city’s office spaces.
Diving into the demographics of visitors to LA’s top-performing office buildings reveals an important insight: these buildings are attracting younger workers. This cohort has shown a stronger preference for in-person work compared to their older colleagues.
Analyzing the buildings’ captured markets with psychographics from AGS: Panorama reveals that these buildings are attracting visitors from areas with larger shares of "Emerging Leaders" and "Young Coastal Technocrats" than the broader metro area.
"Emerging Leaders'' – upper-middle-class professionals in early stages of their careers – make up 20.3% of households in the trade areas feeding visits to these top-performing buildings, compared to 14.9% in the broader LA CBSA. Similarly, "Young Coastal Technocrats," young and highly educated professionals in tech and professional services, account for 14.7% of households driving visits to the top-performing buildings, compared to only 12.1% in the broader area.
The trend suggests that companies in these high-performing office buildings employ many early-career professionals eager to accelerate their careers and work in-person with colleagues and mentors. This is a positive sign for the future of the office market in the LA metro area, indicating that it is attractive to key demographic groups that are likely to drive future growth and innovation.
Over the past few years, the debate regarding return-to-office mandates has been a heated one. Will employees follow return-to-office requirements? Can companies enforce the return to office after offering remote and hybrid work options? Recent location analytics data suggests that, at least in the Los Angeles metro area, some return-to-office mandates have been effective.
Three major tech companies – Activision Blizzard, TikTok, and SNAP Inc. – recently made their return-to-office policies stricter. Activision mandated a full return to the office in January 2024. TikTok has also intensified its return-to-office policy while seeking to expand its office presence in the greater Los Angeles area. And SNAP Inc. required employees to return to the office earlier this year as a condition of continued employment.
Visitation patterns at each of these companies' respective headquarters suggest that their policies have directly impacted visit frequency. Since the beginning of the year, the share of repeat office visits (defined as two or more visits per week) has increased for all three locations. Activision saw its share of repeat office visits grow from 52.1% in H1 2023 to 61.4% in the same period of 2024. TikTok’s repeat visits grew from 49.5% to 61.0%, and SNAP’s repeat visits increased from 36.6% to 42.8%.
These numbers highlight how return-to-office policies can lead to noticeable changes in office visit patterns and offer a blueprint to other businesses looking to foster a stronger in-office workforce.
Los Angeles is the second-largest metro area in the country, with several distinct business districts across its sprawling landscape. And a closer look at four major office hubs in the greater LA area – Century City, Downtown LA, Santa Monica, and Culver City – highlights how the office recovery can vary, not just by city or demographic, but on a neighborhood level.
Weekday visits by local employees to all four analyzed business districts have rebounded significantly since 2020 – though each area has followed its own particular trajectory.
Culver City, home to major businesses including Sony Pictures and Disney Digital Network, saw the least pronounced drop in employee visits during the early days of the pandemic. And in Q2 2024, weekday visits by local workers were down just 18.4% compared to Q1 2019.
Century City, on the other hand, saw the most marked drop in local employee foot traffic as the pandemic set in. But the district’s recovery trajectory has also been the most dramatic – with a Q2 2024 visit gap of just 28.5%, smaller than Downtown LA’s 29.7% visit gap. Perhaps capitalizing on this momentum, Century City is expanding its business district with the addition of a major new office building, set to be completed in 2026 and serve as the headquarters for Creative Artists Agency. Santa Monica, for its part, finished off Q2 2024 with a 23.3% visit gap.
Century City stands out within the Los Angeles metropolitan area for its dramatic decline and subsequent resurgence in local employee foot traffic. And looking at another metric of office recovery – employee commute distance – further underscores the district’s remarkable comeback.
The share of employees commuting to Century City from three to seven miles away has nearly returned to pre-COVID levels – suggesting a normalization of commuting patterns by local workers living in the area. In H1 2019, 33.5% of workers in Century City commuted between 3 and 7 miles to work; in 2022, that number had dropped to 29.8%. But by 2024, the share of visitors making that commute had grown to 32.5% – much closer to pre-COVID numbers.
Similarly, the region’s trade area size, which had contracted significantly in the wake of the pandemic, bounced back significantly in 2024. This serves as another indication of Century City’s rebound, cementing Century City’s status as a key business hub within the Los Angeles metropolitan area.
Five years after the upheaval caused by the pandemic, office spaces are still changing. Although the Los Angeles area has taken longer to recover than other major cities, analyzing local visitation data shows significant potential for the city’s business areas. With young employees leading the return-to-office charge, the city is poised to keep driving its strong economy and adjust to an evolving office environment.
Retail media networks (RMNs) have cemented their roles as the future – and present – of advertising. These networks enable advertisers to promote products and services through a retailer’s online properties and physical stores, when consumers are close to the point-of-purchase and primed to buy.
Today, we take a closer look at two newcomers to the retail media space: Costco Wholesale and Wawa. Both chains have an online presence – but both also excel at in-store experiences, offering unique opportunities for consumer engagement and exposure to new products.
This white paper dives into the data to explore some of the key advantages Costco and Wawa bring to the retail media table – and examine how the retailers’ physical reach can best be leveraged to help advertising partners find new audiences.
Wawa and Costco, the latest additions to the growing number of companies with retail media networks, exhibit significant advertising potential. Both brands boast a wide reach and diverse customer base, and both have access to troves of customer data through membership and loyalty programs.
Foot traffic data confirms the robust offline positioning of the two retailers. In Q1 2024, year-over-year (YoY) visits to Costco and Wawa increased 9.5% and 7.5% respectively – showing that their in-store engagement is on a growth trajectory.
And since consumers tend to spend a lot more time in-store than they do on retailers’ websites, Costco’s and Wawa’s strong brick-and-mortar growth positions them especially well to help advertisers reach new customers. In Q1 2024, the average visits to Costco’s and Wawa’s physical stores lasted 37.4 and 11.4 minutes respectively – compared to just 6.7 and 4.6 minutes for the chains’ websites. These longer in-store dwell times can be harnessed to maximize ad exposure and offer partners more extended opportunities for meaningful interactions with customers. Partners can also analyze the behavior and preferences of the two chains’ growing visitor bases to craft targeted online campaigns.
Costco’s retail media network will tap into the on- and offline shopping habits of its staggering 74.5 million members to inform targeted advertising by partners. And the retailer’s tremendous reach offers a significant opportunity to engage customers in-store.
But while Costco is dominant in some areas of the country, other markets are led by competitors like Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club. And advertisers looking to choose between competing RMNs or hone in on the areas where Costco is strongest can analyze Costco's performance and visit share – on a local or national level – to determine where to focus their efforts.
An analysis of the share of visits to wholesalers across the country reveals that Costco is the dominant wholesale membership club in much of the Western United States. But Costco also captures the largest share of wholesale club visits in many other major population centers, including important markets like New York, Chicago, Phoenix, and San Antonio. Costco’s widespread brick-and-mortar dominance offers prospective advertising partners a significant opportunity to connect with regional audiences in a wide array of key markets.
Another one of Costco’s key advantages as a retail media provider lies in its highly loyal and engaged audience. In May 2024, a whopping 41.4% of Costco’s visitors frequented the club at least twice during the month – compared to 36.6% for Sam’s Club and 36.0% for BJ’s Wholesale.
Moreover, Costco led in average visit duration compared to its competitors. In May 2024, customers spent an average of 37.1 minutes at Costco – surpassing even the impressive dwell times at Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club.
YoY visits per location to Costco, too, were the highest of the analyzed wholesalers, all three of which saw YoY increases. These metrics further establish the wholesaler’s position as an effective retail media provider.
Even when foot traffic doesn't show a brand’s clear regional dominance, location analytics can reveal other metrics that signal its unique potential. Take the Richmond-Petersburg, VA, designated market area (DMA), for example. In May 2024, BJ’s Wholesale Club led the DMA with 41.2% of wholesale club visits, while Costco was a close second with 37.3% of visits.
But despite BJ’s lead in visit share, Costco's Richmond audience was more affluent. Costco's visitors came from trade areas with a median household income (HHI) of $93.2K/year, compared to $73.1K/year for Sam’s Club and $89.5K/year for BJ’s. Additionally, Costco drew a higher share of weekday visits than its counterparts.
Analyzing shopper habits and preferences across chains on a local level can provide crucial context for strategists working on media campaigns. Advertisers can partner with the brands most likely to attract consumers interested in their offerings, and identify where – and when – to focus their advertising efforts.
Convenience stores, or c-stores, are emerging as destinations in and of themselves – and their rising popularity among a wider-than-ever swath of consumers opens up significant opportunities in the retail advertising space.
Wawa is a relative newcomer to the world of retail media, after other c-stores like 7-Eleven and Casey’s launched their networks in 2022 and 2023. But despite coming a bit late to the party, the potential for Wawa’s Goose Media Network is significant – thanks to a cadre of highly loyal visitors who enjoy the physical shopping experience the c-store chain offers.
In May 2024, Wawa’s share of loyal visitors (defined as those who visited the chain at least twice in a month) was 60.1%. In contrast, other leading c-store chains operating in Wawa’s market area – QuickTrip and 7-Eleven, for example – saw loyalty rates of 56.0% and 47.9%, respectively, for the same period.
Additionally, Wawa visitors browsed the aisles longer than those at other convenience retailers. In May 2024, 39.9% of Wawa visitors stayed in-store for 10 minutes or longer, compared to 29.6% at QuickTrip and 25.7% at 7-Eleven.
Wawa's loyal customer base and longer visit durations make it a strong contender in the retail media space. By harnessing this high level of customer engagement, Wawa can draw in advertisers and develop targeted marketing strategies that resonate with its dedicated shoppers.
Wawa has been on an expansion roll over the past few years, with plans to open at least 280 stores over the next decade in North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky. The chain has also been steadily increasing its footprint in Florida – between January 2019 and April 2024, Wawa grew from 167 Sunshine State locations to 280, with more to come.
And analyzing changes in Wawa’s visit share in one of Florida’s biggest markets – the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale DMA – shows how successful the chain’s local expansion has been. Between January 2019 and April 2024, Wawa more than doubled its category-wide visit share in the Miami area (i.e. the portion of total c-store visits in the DMA going to Wawa) – from 19.0% to nearly 40.0%.
A look at changes in Wawa’s Miami-Ft. Lauderdale trade area shows that the chain’s growing visit share has been driven by an expanding market and an increasingly diverse audience.
In April 2019, there were some 55 zip code tabulation areas (ZCTAs) in the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale DMA from which Wawa drew at least 3,000 visits per month. By April 2021, this figure grew to 96 – and by April 2024, it reached 129.
Over the same period, the share of “Family Union” households in Wawa’s local captured market – defined by the Experian: Mosaic dataset as families comprised of middle-income, blue collar workers – nearly doubled, growing from 7.4% in April 2019 to 14.4% in April 2024.
Retail media networks that make it easier to introduce shoppers to products and brands that are closely aligned with their preferences and habits offer a win-win-win for retailers, advertisers, and consumers alike. And Costco and Wawa are extremely well-positioned to make the most of this opportunity.
Everybody loves coffee. And with some 75% of American adults indulging in a cup of joe at least once a week, it’s no wonder the industry is constantly on an upswing.
In early 2024, year-over-year (YoY) visits to coffee chains increased nationwide – with every state in the continental U.S. experiencing year-over-year (YoY) coffee visit growth.
The most substantial foot traffic boosts were seen in smaller markets like Oklahoma (19.4%), Wyoming (19.3%), and Arkansas (16.9%), where expansions may have a more substantial impact on statewide industry growth. But the nation’s largest coffee markets, including Texas (10.9%), California (4.2%), Florida (4.2%), and New York (3.5%), also experienced significant YoY upticks.
The nation’s coffee visit growth is being fueled, in large part, by chain expansions: Major coffee players are leaning into growing demand by steadily increasing their footprints. And a look at per-location foot traffic trends shows that by and large, they are doing so without significantly diluting visitation to existing stores.
On an industry-wide level, visits to coffee chains increased 5.1% YoY during the first five months of 2024. And over the same period, the average number of visits to each individual coffee location declined just slightly by 0.6% – meaning that individual stores drew just about the same amount of foot traffic as they did in 2023.
Drilling down into chain-level data shows some variation between brands. Dutch Bros., BIGGBY COFFEE and Dunkin’ all saw significant chain-wide visit boosts, accompanied by minor increases in their average number of visits per location.
Starbucks, for its part, which reported a YoY decline in U.S. sales for Q2 2024, maintained a small lag in visits per location. But given the coffee leader’s massive footprint – some 16,600 stores nationwide – its ability to expand while avoiding more significant dilution of individual store performance shows that Starbucks’ growth is meeting robust demand.
What is driving the coffee industry’s remarkable category-wide growth? And who are the customers behind it? This white paper dives into the data to explore key factors driving foot traffic to leading coffee chains in early 2024. The report explores the demographic and psychographic characteristics of visitors to major players in the coffee space and examines strategies brands can use to make the most of the opportunity presented by a thriving industry.
One factor shaping the surge in coffee visit growth is the slow-but-sure return-to-office (RTO). Hybrid work may be the post-COVID new normal – but RTO mandates and WFH fatigue have led to steady increases in office foot traffic over the past year. And in some major hubs – including New York and Miami – office visits are back to more than 80.0% of what they were pre-pandemic.
A look at shifting Starbucks visitation patterns shows that customer journeys and behavior increasingly reflect those of office-goers. In April and May 2022, for example, 18.6% of Starbucks visitors proceeded to their workplace immediately following their coffee stop – but by 2024, this share shot up to 21.0%.
Over the same period, the percentage of early morning (7:00 to 10:00 AM) Starbucks visits lasting less than 10 minutes also increased significantly – from 64.3% in 2022 to 68.7% in 2024. More customers are picking up their coffee on the go – many of them on the way to work – rather than settling down to enjoy it on-site.
Dunkin’ is another chain that is benefiting from consumers on the go. Examining the coffee giant’s performance across major regional markets – those where the chain maintains a significant presence – reveals a strong correlation between the share of Dunkin’ visits in each state lasting less than five minutes and the chain’s local YoY trajectory.
In Wisconsin, for example, 50.9% of visits to Dunkin’ between January and May 2024 lasted less than five minutes. And Wisconsin also saw the most impressive YoY visit growth (5.9%). Illinois, Ohio, Maine, and Connecticut followed similar patterns, with high shares of very short visits and strong YoY showings.
On the other end of the spectrum lay Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida, where very short visits accounted for a low share of the chain’s statewide total – under 40.% – and where visits declined YoY.
Dunkin’s success with very short visits may be driven in part by its popular app, which makes it easy for harried customers to place their order online and save time in-store. And this is good news indeed for the coffee leader – since customers using the app also tend to generate bigger tickets.
Dutch Bros.’ meteoric rise has been fueled, in part, by its appeal to younger audiences. Recently ranked as Gen Z’s favorite quick-service restaurant, the rapidly-expanding coffee chain sets itself apart with a strong brand identity built on cultivating a positive, friendly customer experience.
And Dutch Bros.’ people-centered approach is resonating especially well with singles – including young adults living alone – who may particularly appreciate the chain’s community atmosphere.
Analyzing the relative performance of Dutch Bros.’ locations across metro areas – focusing on regions where the chain has a strong local presence – shows that it performs best in areas with plenty of singles. Indeed, the share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ local captured markets is very strongly correlated with the coffee brand’s CBSA-level YoY per-location visit performance. Areas with higher concentrations of one-person households saw significantly more YoY visit growth in the first part of 2024. (A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice).
The share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ Tucson, AZ captured market, for example, stands at 33.4% – well above the nationwide baseline of 27.5%. And between January and May 2024, Tucson-area Dutch Bros. saw a 6.0% increase in the average number of visits per location. Tulsa, OK, Medford, OR, and Oklahoma City, OK – which also feature high shares of one-person households (over 30.0%) – similarly saw per-location visit increases ranging from 3.6% - 7.0%. On the flip side, Fresno, CA, Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, and San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX, which feature lower-than-average shares of single-person households, saw YoY per-location visit declines ranging from 1.5%-9.5%.
As Dutch Bros. forges ahead with its planned expansions, it may benefit from doubling down on this trends and focusing its development efforts on markets with higher-than-average shares of one-person households – such as university towns or urban areas with lots of young professionals.
Michigan-based BIGGBY COFFEE is another java winner in expansion mode. With a growth strategy focused on emerging markets with less brand saturation, BIGGBY has been setting its sights on small towns and rural areas throughout the Midwest and South. Though the chain does have locations in bigger cities like Detroit and Cincinnati, some of its most significant markets are in smaller population centers.
And a look at the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top-performing locations in early 2024 shows that they are significantly over-indexed for suburban consumers – both compared to BIGGBY as a whole and compared to nationwide baselines. (Top-performing locations are defined as those that experienced the greatest YoY visit growth between January and May 2024).
“Suburban Boomers”, for example – a Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment encompassing middle-class empty-nesters living in suburbs – comprised 10.6% of BIGGBY’s top captured markets in early 2024, compared to just 6.6% for BIGGBY’s overall. (The nationwide baseline for Suburban Boomers is even lower – 4.4%.) And Upper Diverse Suburban Families – a segment made up of upper-middle-class suburbanites – accounted for 9.6% of the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top locations, compared to just 7.2% for BIGGBY’s as a whole, and 8.3% nationwide.
Coffee has long been one of America’s favorite beverages. And java chains that offer consumers an enjoyable, affordable way to splurge are expanding both their footprints and their audiences. By leaning into shifting work routines and catering to customers’ varying habits and preferences, major coffee players like Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros., and BIGGBY COFFEE are continuing to thrive.
