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In December 2023, Placer.ai released two white papers: How Physical Stores Help DNBs Thrive and East Coast Migration Hubs. Below is a taste of our findings. To read more data-driven consumer research, visit our library.
DNBs – Digitally Native Brands – refer to retailers that began their retail journey exclusively online, selling their product line direct-to-consumers through their owned digital channel. But although all these businesses start out as a pure e-commerce play, many DNBs eventually move offline, choosing to leverage the various benefits of brick-and-mortar channels to grow their business even further.
Analyzing year-over-year (YoY) data for Q3 2023 shows that, while many retailers struggled, DNB leaders such as Vuori, Allbirds, Everlane, and Warby Parker all saw significant growth in quarterly visits per venue. Many of these brands also underwent significant expansions, but the increase in visits per venue reveals that many of the DNBs are seeing more crowded stores despite the increase in number of overall venues. The success of these brands in operating stores that consumers want to keep visiting – even in times of economic headwinds – suggests that DNBs are particularly well positioned to take advantage of the diverse benefits of offline stores.
How Physical Stores Help DNBs Thrive uses location intelligence to reveal the different brick-and-mortar strategies helping DNBs broaden their reach, build their brand, and acquire new audiences. Several DNBs are building massive store fleets, while others focus on a couple well-placed stores – and some focus on temporary pop-ups to reap the benefits of physical stores without the long-term commitment.
Read the full report here to discover the diverse methods that digitally native brands are enlisting to to drive growth through brick-and-mortar expansion.
Much has been written about the recent population outflows from New York, Massachusetts, and other northeastern states. But many states on the East Coast – including Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware, North and South Carolina, and Florida – are actually seeing influxes of newcomers.
Each of these states – and each of the metropolitan areas attracting relocators within them – offers its own set of benefits. But those willing to make the move often fit a similar profile – younger individuals or families looking for a more favorable housing market, better schools, or more job opportunities.
East Coast Migration Hubs looks at several states and metro areas on the East Coast to explore the factors driving migration to these emerging hubs. Using location data to understand who is moving, and harnessing Niche’s Neighborhood Grades dataset to identify differences between origin and destination areas, the report seeks to shed light on recent domestic migration trends in the Eastern United States.
Read the full report here to discover the factors driving domestic migration to several popular relocation destinations on the East Coast.
For more data-driven consumer research, visit our library.
Last year was marked by inflation and consumer cutbacks as shoppers adjusted to price hikes across key retail and dining categories. But despite the challenges, many categories and retailers not only weathered the storm but positively thrived under the ongoing headwinds.
Now, with a new year offering fresh opportunities for growth, what are the retail and dining segments positioned for success in 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Last year’s high grocery prices led to a surge in foot traffic to affordable supermarket chains – but food-away-from-home inflation also seems to have driven visits to high-end grocers. Visits to chains such as New York-based Uncle Giuseppe’s, Illinois-based Cermak Fresh Market, and California-based Lazy Acres saw consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit increases as consumers sought specialty ingredients to recreate restaurant-quality dishes at home. Rising interest in sustainability, natural products, and organic ingredients – especially among Gen-Z – likely helped drive traffic growth as well.
But the success of specialty grocers isn’t just coming from singles willing to splurge on the latest influencer-backed food trend – trade area demographic data reveals that families with children are overrepresented in the captured market trade area of all three specialty grocers analyzed. With restaurant prices likely increasing slightly in 2024, consumers looking to feed their families tasty dishes without breaking the bank – or shoppers feeding the growing demand for natural food products – will likely keep visits to specialty grocers high in the coming year.
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Along with the rise in specialty grocers selling natural and organic ingredients, restaurants focusing on whole, healthy foods are also seeing a boost – and the segment is positioned for further growth in 2024. Consumers are flocking to concepts such as Mendocino Farms, honeygrow, and Crisp & Green that boast fresh ingredients and made-from-scratch dishes – and these chains are all expanding to meet the growing demand.
Visits to healthy dining concepts are no longer reserved for special occasions – weekday foot traffic is also on the rise, with all three dining brands analyzed seeing a YoY rise in the share of Monday to Friday visits. With employees slowly but surely returning to the office and looking to grab a nutritious lunch mid-day or meet up with friends for a balanced dinner on their way home, demand for health-focused dining concepts is likely to continue growing in 2024.
Dave’s Hot Chicken was one of 2023’s biggest dining success stories, and the chain was not the only fried chicken franchise attracting significant foot traffic. Raising Cane’s, which has been on a roll for several years, and Huey Magoo’s Chicken Tenders – which serves grilled chicken and other fare alongside its signature fried tenders – are also taking the country by storm.
Foot traffic to the chains surged in 2023, driven in part by aggressive expansions. But zooming into November 2023 data reveals that average visits per venue are also up YoY, despite all three brands’ much larger store fleets – indicating that the fried chicken boom is meeting a ready demand. It seems, then, that while some diners will favor healthy foods in the new year, other consumers are likely to continue driving visits to fried chicken chains in 2024.
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Fried chicken isn’t the only indulgence positioned to thrive in 2024. Other affordable luxuries raked in visits last year and are likely to continue seeing growth in the year ahead.
Although inflation appears to be cooling, prices across many goods and services still remain elevated, with some shoppers still putting off large purchases. But consumers are willing to splurge on small treats that won’t break the bank, and tasty snacks and food items – from craft doughnuts to gourmet deli sandwiches to specialty coffee concoctions – could provide the perfect affordable and guilt-free pick-me-up. Parlor Doughnuts, Pickleman’s Gourmet Cafe, and Dutch Bros. Coffee are some of the chains that benefited from this trend in 2023 and will likely continue to grow in the new year.
The trade areas of the three chains analyzed all include a larger-than-average share of “non-family households” – people living with unrelated individuals. As high housing costs continue to lead more U.S. adults to live with roommates, the number of consumers looking to escape their daily grind with an affordable indulgence is likely to increase in 2024 – and drive even larger visit surges to chains offering budget-friendly treats.
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Non-comestible affordable indulgence such as tanning salons, hair-removal parlors, and eyelash salons are also seeing a rise in visits that will likely continue in the coming year. Deka Lash, Tan Republic, Glo Tanning, and LaserAway are some of the chains that saw their YoY visits increase significantly in 2023, and the growth does not appear to be slowing down.
All four chains’ trade areas included a larger share of Gen-Z visitors (aged 18-24) than the share of 18-24 year olds nationwide. And since, despite inflation, younger shoppers tend to spend more than the average American on beauty and self care – and Gen Z’s spending power is only expected to grow in the coming year – personal grooming chains are well positioned to succeed even further in 2024.
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Another personal care-adjacent segment slated for growth in 2024 is themed fitness. Gyms and studios that focus on a particular type of activity or fitness regimen – such as climbing, yoga, pilates, or HIIT are seeing their visits skyrocket, with both the number of monthly visits and the average visit frequency on the rise YoY.
The rising popularity of themed fitness concepts may be aided by the sense of community fostered by many of these chains. Touchstone Climbing organizes meetup groups geared towards specific audiences, while F45 Training prides itself on facilitating a sense of purpose and belonging among its members. And yoga and pilates classes have long been recognized for their capacity for connection-building.
With loneliness on the rise and many consumers looking to incorporate a fun, social element into their fitness routines, the demand for themed fitness concepts will likely keep on growing in 2024.
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Cost-effectiveness does not necessarily mean cheap. And while some retail segments to watch in 2024 stand out for their low price points, other segments that offer consumers a particularly strong value proposition also appear well positioned to thrive in the coming year. Chains such as Theory, Anthropologie, and Marine Layer all saw YoY increases in monthly visits every month of 2023, perhaps aided by the “quiet luxury” trend that drove demand for high-quality, non-ostentatious fashion. And while these brands may not offer the cheapest price, the focus on good craftsmanship and premium fabrics may help consumers feel better about shelling out a little more for each item.
All three brands analyzed have a significant presence in California. Diving into their captured market in the Golden State reveals that visitors to these upscale apparel retailers tend to be wealthier and are more likely to live alone when compared to the average California resident. So even as many companies look to cater to the increasing share of budget-conscious consumers, other retailers willing to invest in quality materials and offer a premium customer experience can still thrive in 2024 by meeting the needs of more affluent audiences.
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From healthy foods to fried fare, and from affordable treats to higher-priced apparel, the diversity of retail and dining segments to watch in 2024 highlights the many opportunities for success in the coming year. Where will visits skyrocket? Which brands will hit it out of the park?
Visit placer.ai/blog to find out.
Streets adorned in holiday lights, bustling Christmas stores and pop-ups, and local festivals all make the holiday season a truly magical time of year. So with Christmas in the rearview mirror, we dug into the data to explore some of the most beloved holiday spots throughout the country. Who visits Christmas stores? How do holiday events affect foot traffic to local hangouts? And what impact do annual parades have on major retail corridors like Chicago’s Mag Mile?
We dove into the data to find out.
Bronner’s Christmas Wonderland in Frankenmuth, MI is the biggest Christmas store in the country – nay, the world. Spanning some 27 acres, the store carries everything from personalized holiday ornaments to Christmas trees. And the venue, which is open 361 days a year, has emerged as a true destination, where visitors can enjoy a taste of the holiday spirit and load up on all their Christmas essentials.
People visit Bronner’s all year round – but foot traffic to the store really picks up during the holiday season: Between November 1st and December 21st, 2023, the holiday wonderland drew a stunning 438.0% more daily visits, on average, than it did between January and October of this year.
Drilling down deeper into the data shows that much of this visit bump is driven by locals, who flock to Bronner’s during the Christmas season. Throughout the year, Bronner’s draws tourists from all over the country – and in the summer, most visits to the shop are by shoppers living more than 100 miles away. Individuals living within 100 miles of Bronner’s tend to visit closer to Christmas, when the time comes to stock up on supplies for the holiday. And as the holiday approaches, the share of true locals in Bronner’s visitor base – i.e. those living less than 50 miles away from the store – increases significantly.
As the Yuletide season kicks into gear, special holiday-themed pop-ups and happenings also spring up throughout the country, with bars, malls, and restaurants all hosting special events filled with holiday cheer.
One venue that goes all out for the holidays is Mozart’s Coffee Roasters, the lakeside Austin, TX coffee shop that’s been a local landmark since 1993. With free wifi, expansive seating, and bottomless coffee, Mozart’s is the perfect place for remote employees to get some work done. And with hundreds of artists performing at the venue each year and a weekly open mic night, it’s also a great place to go out in the evenings. In the run-up to Christmas, Mozart’s hosts its famed annual holiday lights show, replete with a Bavarian Marketplace, a silent disco, and this year, an actual piece of Taylor Swift’s dance floor.
During the light show, Mozart’s is positively teeming with customers: Since the start of the event this year (November 9th), the coffee shop drew 104.3% more daily visitors, on average, than it did between January 7th (the end of last year’s show) and November 8th, 2023. And unsurprisingly, foot traffic data shows that most of this visit bump is driven by evening customers: During most of the year, the majority of visits to Mozart’s take place before 6:00 PM, with 24.4% concentrated in the morning hours. But when the festival kicks off, this pattern reverses – with 66.7% of visits taking place between 6:00 PM and midnight.
Local parades and festivals are another mainstay of the holiday season. From New York’s iconic Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade to the Hollywood Christmas Parade in Los Angeles, cities across America draw massive crowds to streets decked out with holiday cheer.
One of the nation’s most timeless Christmas celebrations is Chicago’s Wintrust Magnificent Mile Lights Festival – an all-day bonanza that features a slew of booths and activities, a televised parade, and an impressive fireworks display. The festival, which famously illuminates the city with a million lights, is one of the Mag Mile’s prime events of the year. And comparing November 18th, 2023 foot traffic to the popular Chicago retail corridor – the day of the big event – to a September 1st 2023 baseline, shows that the festivities generated a tremendous 179.5% visit spike.
And a look at the demographic characteristics of visitors to the Mag Mile during the Lights Festival reveals that the celebration draws a more economically diverse crowd, as well as a larger share of families with children. Throughout most of this year, the median household income (HHI) of the Magnificent Mile’s captured market was relatively high – $85.4K. At the same time, the share of parental households in the retail corridor’s captured market increased from 21.0% to 23.4%, highlighting the event’s special appeal for families.
Everybody needs some seasonal cheer – and the sheer variety of holiday-themed events and festivals means there’s something for everybody. How will Christmas stores fare as the retail environment continues to evolve? And how will shifting urban landscapes impact local events, parades, and festivals in the years to come?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail and civic analyses to find out.
College students make up a small percentage of the overall U.S. population. But they often have money to spend – and back-to-college shopping is a significant driver of retail sales. This year in particular, students heading back to school were expected to spend record amounts on dorm decor, clothing, and other campus essentials. And since today’s college students make up a large chunk of tomorrow’s affluent consumers, retailers across industries are eager to cement positive relationships with the segment.
So with fall semester just under way, we dove into the data to explore the spending habits of today’s undergraduate young adults. When do they shop? What do they like to buy? And what can retailers do to get their attention?
To get a sense of when collegians tend to do the most shopping, we analyzed the monthly share of college students in the captured markets of select retailers and segments, using audience segmentation data from Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive. And the analysis revealed that student consumer behavior follows a clear seasonal pattern.
In 2019, the share of college students in the captured markets of big box superstores like Target and Walmart peaked in August, and to a lesser extent in June, July, and September, as collegians enjoyed their summer vacations and did their back-to-school shopping. Additional upticks emerged in January, when many students were on winter break. But during regular school months, when midterms, finals, and homework likely kept many students hunkered down in the library, their share in the chains’ captured markets was much lower. While this pattern was disrupted in the wake of COVID, it returned in full force in 2022. Similar seasonality arose when looking at wider segments like apparel and off-price retail, as well as various dining categories.
In addition to seasonality, the above graphs also appear to indicate that despite their tight budgets, collegians don’t necessarily prioritize price over everything else. So to further explore the shopping preferences of college kids, we examined the share of the #College segment in the captured markets of popular chains across categories.
Trade area data seems to indicate that university students shop at Target, frequent non-off-price-apparel chains, eat at fast-casual restaurants – and make up smaller shares of the customer bases of less expensive alternatives. Indeed, as hard-up as they may be, undergrads know how to splurge and are willing to pay for high quality stuff. They can’t get enough Urban Outfitters and love mid to higher range brands like Madewell and lululemon athletica.
At the same time, college students are highly oriented to thrift shops – especially those like Buffalo Exchange and Plato’s Closet, where they can sell their old clothes and snag stylish, name-brand items for a steal.
Of course, the share of collegians in the captured market of any given retailer or segment can also be impacted by the behavior of other demographics. For example, if a particular chain attracts an extremely broad audience, a lower relative share of college students may indicate that their presence is being offset by other segments. Still, while a small share of collegians in a chain’s trade area may not necessarily mean that the chain does not appeal to this group, a disproportionate share of students in a chain’s captured market is a strong indication that the brand is embraced by this demographic.
And chains which see a smaller share of college students among their customer base may draw an outsize proportion of undergrads during peak season. Walmart’s captured market, for example, was just 14.0% over-indexed for the #College segment between September 2022 and August 2023, compared to a nationwide baseline. But looking just at August 2023 – peak college Back to School shopping season – the share of #College students in its captured market was 94.0% higher than the nationwide average. Walmart also enjoyed higher-than-average shares of collegians in September, June, July, January, and to a lesser extent – October. Dollar Tree, too, attracted an outsize share of collegians in the summer and in January.
Collegian shopping habits are shaped by the rhythms of campus life. And while students are budget-conscious, they place a high premium on quality and are willing to spend money on things that are important to them. Brands that can lean into college students’ seasonal groove – while providing the products they crave at price points that don’t break the bank – will be poised to win over this demographic, gaining customers that may stay with them for life.
How will college spending habits continue to evolve as the school year progresses? Which brands will stand out as collegian favorites?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven insights to find out.
Marriott International, Inc. has long been a dominant player on the U.S. hospitality scene. The company boasts a wide-ranging portfolio of some 31 brands, running the gamut from luxury chains like The Ritz Carlton to more budget-friendly options like Courtyard by Marriott. And with more than 8,500 locations worldwide, including some 5,700 in the U.S., the hotel giant is continuing to expand its footprint.
Against this backdrop, Marriott International’s decision last May to launch the hospitality industry’s first media network – leveraging visitor data to let external brands advertise to its customers – should come as no surprise. With millions of customers passing through its doors each year, Marriott is particularly well-placed to help relevant advertising partners reach new audiences. The network, powered by Yahoo, offers both online and offline marketing opportunities, including in-room television and digital-screen promotions.
To better understand the potential reach of Marriott’s advertising network, we dove into the data to explore the characteristics and preferences of the people that visit the hospitality leader’s various brands and locations. By layering foot traffic data with demographic and psychographic metrics from STI: Popstats, AGS Behavior & Attitudes, and Experian’s Mosaic, we examined Marriott’s different captured markets, gaining insight into the habits, interests, and profiles of its customer bases.
*A chain or venue’s captured market refers to the population residing in its trade area, weighted to reflect the actual share of visits from each Census Block Group comprising the trade area.
Marriott’s brands are divided into three tiers: Luxury, Premium, and Select. And with something for everyone, the company’s customer base encompasses a wide swath of society – from budget-conscious families looking for inexpensive accommodations, to affluent singles on the hunt for high-end, luxury getaways. Marriott also runs several extended-stay venues, including Residence Inn and TownePlace Suites.
A look at the profiles of visitors to four different Marriott chains shows that, as expected, wealthier patrons tend to frequent the company’s luxury hotels, while less affluent customers tend to visit its more budget-oriented Select brands. But even the company’s less pricey offerings – such as Four Points by Sheraton (acquired by Marriott in 2016) – attract consumers from relatively affluent areas. And certain Select tier destinations, like Marriott’s Millennial and GenZ-oriented Moxy Hotels, draw higher-HHI travelers than some Premium brands.
The household compositions and consumer preferences of visitors to Marriott’s various brands also differ. Four Points stands out as a prime destination for families with children, as well as older couples – while Moxy attracts an outsize share of “Young City Solos.” Moxy and Ritz Carlton guests are more likely to be museum goers and use ride share apps like Lyft and Uber. And visitors to Four Points and Westin locations are more apt to be into DIY home improvement.
One Marriott chain that has been doing particularly well in recent months is Moxy Hotels, a brand squarely targeted at the “young at heart.” Positioned as an experiential destination – a place to play, and not just stay – Moxy Hotels’ website exudes youthfulness, inviting travelers to “PLAY ON #ATTHEMOXY,” and touting the chain’s fun communal spaces. The rooms are relatively compact and affordable, and at some locations, guests can check in at the bar and claim a complimentary cocktail.
And the chain, which boasts some 120 properties across 23 countries (including more than 30 in the U.S.), experienced positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth throughout H1 2023. While some of this growth is undoubtedly due to the chain’s continued expansion, the average number of visits to each Moxy Hotel also increased. The consumer quest for fun experiences, which has propelled experiential models in retail and dining, appears to be leaving its mark on the hotel industry as well.
Moxy Hotel’s highly targeted experiential vibe may make it particularly attractive for advertisers interested in reaching younger consumers. But while Moxy targets a pretty specific demographic, the profile of its customers is far from uniform. Visitors to Moxy’s New Orleans Hotel, for example, are more likely to have a lower HHI and to include families with children than visitors to its Washington, D.C. and East Village (New York) venues. And while more than 60.0% of visitors to the East Village Moxy in H1 2023 were locals hailing from less than 30 miles away, 81.5% of visitors to the New Orleans Moxy came from further away.
Buoyed by a post-COVID travel boom that has seen people flocking back to hotels and airlines, Marriott International – along with its media network – appears poised for further growth. While the network will undoubtedly harness Marriott’s own first-party data, including from its Bonvoy loyalty program, location intelligence can offer additional layers of insight into the actual audiences it is likely to reach.
For more data-driven foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai.
Although many dining chains have been challenged by recent economic headwinds, others are finding success. Adding itself to the list of restaurant winners in 2023 is CAVA – a growing Mediterranean fast-casual chain that recently filed for an initial public offering (IPO). We dove into the location analytics for CAVA to take a closer look at how the company is thriving in a turbulent economic climate and what lies ahead for the chain in its next chapter.
CAVA has shown a remarkable ability to drive foot traffic over the past couple of years. Since 2019, CAVA’s baseline visit growth has outperformed the fast-casual restaurant space nearly every month – with visits really taking off in 2021. The brand has been able to capitalize on growing suburban markets – accounting for 80% of locations – which may be contributing to the chain’s visit growth.
Visits to CAVA have skyrocketed. And like other fast-casual success stories, CAVA has embraced drive-thrus and invested in a streamlined in-store experience, both of which are likely contributing to at least some of the brand’s recent strength.
In addition to impressive visit growth, CAVA recorded a 12.8% revenue increase in 2022 compared to 2021 – no small feat considering the impact of inflation on overall restaurant traffic.
Zooming into visits per venue showcases CAVA’s strength even more clearly. CAVA’s visits-per-venue seem to follow industry trends – as overall fast-casual visits-per-venue fell year-over-year (YoY) between January and April 2023, CAVA’s visit-per-venue growth slowed as well. But although the direction was similar, the actual performance differed substantially, with the company significantly outperforming the wider fast-casual category.
CAVA’s YoY monthly visits per venue have been up since January 2023 – a particularly impressive feat in light of the chain’s continued expansion, and an indication that new locations are driving traffic despite the current economic environment. So, while CAVA appears to be affected by broader restaurant trends, the brand remains far ahead of the fast-casual dining space.
CAVA’s bold brick-and-mortar strategy is part of the reason why it has been able to get ahead of the pack in the fast-casual category. The company acquired Zoës Kitchen in 2018 and has since rebranded almost all Zoës Kitchen locations as CAVA restaurants. Such a strategy is relatively rare in the restaurant industry, but location analytics show that the move has paid off.
Since Q1 2021, CAVA’s YoY visits per venue have consistently outperformed visits-per-venue at the remaining Zoës Kitchen locations. This not only validates CAVA’s decision to phase out the Zoës Kitchen brand but also suggests that CAVA resonates with Zoës Kitchen diners who continue to visit a location when it becomes a CAVA restaurant.
CAVA’s IPO announcement is a welcome next step for one of the fastest-growing fast-casual chains. With a focused expansion strategy and an eye on growing markets, there may be no telling how far the company can go.
For updates and more data-driven foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai.
Everybody loves coffee. And with some 75% of American adults indulging in a cup of joe at least once a week, it’s no wonder the industry is constantly on an upswing.
In early 2024, year-over-year (YoY) visits to coffee chains increased nationwide – with every state in the continental U.S. experiencing year-over-year (YoY) coffee visit growth.
The most substantial foot traffic boosts were seen in smaller markets like Oklahoma (19.4%), Wyoming (19.3%), and Arkansas (16.9%), where expansions may have a more substantial impact on statewide industry growth. But the nation’s largest coffee markets, including Texas (10.9%), California (4.2%), Florida (4.2%), and New York (3.5%), also experienced significant YoY upticks.
The nation’s coffee visit growth is being fueled, in large part, by chain expansions: Major coffee players are leaning into growing demand by steadily increasing their footprints. And a look at per-location foot traffic trends shows that by and large, they are doing so without significantly diluting visitation to existing stores.
On an industry-wide level, visits to coffee chains increased 5.1% YoY during the first five months of 2024. And over the same period, the average number of visits to each individual coffee location declined just slightly by 0.6% – meaning that individual stores drew just about the same amount of foot traffic as they did in 2023.
Drilling down into chain-level data shows some variation between brands. Dutch Bros., BIGGBY COFFEE and Dunkin’ all saw significant chain-wide visit boosts, accompanied by minor increases in their average number of visits per location.
Starbucks, for its part, which reported a YoY decline in U.S. sales for Q2 2024, maintained a small lag in visits per location. But given the coffee leader’s massive footprint – some 16,600 stores nationwide – its ability to expand while avoiding more significant dilution of individual store performance shows that Starbucks’ growth is meeting robust demand.
What is driving the coffee industry’s remarkable category-wide growth? And who are the customers behind it? This white paper dives into the data to explore key factors driving foot traffic to leading coffee chains in early 2024. The report explores the demographic and psychographic characteristics of visitors to major players in the coffee space and examines strategies brands can use to make the most of the opportunity presented by a thriving industry.
One factor shaping the surge in coffee visit growth is the slow-but-sure return-to-office (RTO). Hybrid work may be the post-COVID new normal – but RTO mandates and WFH fatigue have led to steady increases in office foot traffic over the past year. And in some major hubs – including New York and Miami – office visits are back to more than 80.0% of what they were pre-pandemic.
A look at shifting Starbucks visitation patterns shows that customer journeys and behavior increasingly reflect those of office-goers. In April and May 2022, for example, 18.6% of Starbucks visitors proceeded to their workplace immediately following their coffee stop – but by 2024, this share shot up to 21.0%.
Over the same period, the percentage of early morning (7:00 to 10:00 AM) Starbucks visits lasting less than 10 minutes also increased significantly – from 64.3% in 2022 to 68.7% in 2024. More customers are picking up their coffee on the go – many of them on the way to work – rather than settling down to enjoy it on-site.
Dunkin’ is another chain that is benefiting from consumers on the go. Examining the coffee giant’s performance across major regional markets – those where the chain maintains a significant presence – reveals a strong correlation between the share of Dunkin’ visits in each state lasting less than five minutes and the chain’s local YoY trajectory.
In Wisconsin, for example, 50.9% of visits to Dunkin’ between January and May 2024 lasted less than five minutes. And Wisconsin also saw the most impressive YoY visit growth (5.9%). Illinois, Ohio, Maine, and Connecticut followed similar patterns, with high shares of very short visits and strong YoY showings.
On the other end of the spectrum lay Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida, where very short visits accounted for a low share of the chain’s statewide total – under 40.% – and where visits declined YoY.
Dunkin’s success with very short visits may be driven in part by its popular app, which makes it easy for harried customers to place their order online and save time in-store. And this is good news indeed for the coffee leader – since customers using the app also tend to generate bigger tickets.
Dutch Bros.’ meteoric rise has been fueled, in part, by its appeal to younger audiences. Recently ranked as Gen Z’s favorite quick-service restaurant, the rapidly-expanding coffee chain sets itself apart with a strong brand identity built on cultivating a positive, friendly customer experience.
And Dutch Bros.’ people-centered approach is resonating especially well with singles – including young adults living alone – who may particularly appreciate the chain’s community atmosphere.
Analyzing the relative performance of Dutch Bros.’ locations across metro areas – focusing on regions where the chain has a strong local presence – shows that it performs best in areas with plenty of singles. Indeed, the share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ local captured markets is very strongly correlated with the coffee brand’s CBSA-level YoY per-location visit performance. Areas with higher concentrations of one-person households saw significantly more YoY visit growth in the first part of 2024. (A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice).
The share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ Tucson, AZ captured market, for example, stands at 33.4% – well above the nationwide baseline of 27.5%. And between January and May 2024, Tucson-area Dutch Bros. saw a 6.0% increase in the average number of visits per location. Tulsa, OK, Medford, OR, and Oklahoma City, OK – which also feature high shares of one-person households (over 30.0%) – similarly saw per-location visit increases ranging from 3.6% - 7.0%. On the flip side, Fresno, CA, Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, and San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX, which feature lower-than-average shares of single-person households, saw YoY per-location visit declines ranging from 1.5%-9.5%.
As Dutch Bros. forges ahead with its planned expansions, it may benefit from doubling down on this trends and focusing its development efforts on markets with higher-than-average shares of one-person households – such as university towns or urban areas with lots of young professionals.
Michigan-based BIGGBY COFFEE is another java winner in expansion mode. With a growth strategy focused on emerging markets with less brand saturation, BIGGBY has been setting its sights on small towns and rural areas throughout the Midwest and South. Though the chain does have locations in bigger cities like Detroit and Cincinnati, some of its most significant markets are in smaller population centers.
And a look at the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top-performing locations in early 2024 shows that they are significantly over-indexed for suburban consumers – both compared to BIGGBY as a whole and compared to nationwide baselines. (Top-performing locations are defined as those that experienced the greatest YoY visit growth between January and May 2024).
“Suburban Boomers”, for example – a Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment encompassing middle-class empty-nesters living in suburbs – comprised 10.6% of BIGGBY’s top captured markets in early 2024, compared to just 6.6% for BIGGBY’s overall. (The nationwide baseline for Suburban Boomers is even lower – 4.4%.) And Upper Diverse Suburban Families – a segment made up of upper-middle-class suburbanites – accounted for 9.6% of the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top locations, compared to just 7.2% for BIGGBY’s as a whole, and 8.3% nationwide.
Coffee has long been one of America’s favorite beverages. And java chains that offer consumers an enjoyable, affordable way to splurge are expanding both their footprints and their audiences. By leaning into shifting work routines and catering to customers’ varying habits and preferences, major coffee players like Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros., and BIGGBY COFFEE are continuing to thrive.
Note: This report is based on an analysis of visitation patterns for regional and nationwide grocery chains and does not include single-location stores.
Grocery stores, superstores, and dollar stores all carry food products – and American consumers buy groceries at all three. But even in today’s crowded food retail environment, traditional grocery chains have a special role to play. With their primary focus on stocking a wide variety of fresh foods, these chains serve a critical function in offering consumers access to healthy options.
But visualizing the footprints of major grocery chains across the continental U.S. – alongside those of discount & dollar stores – shows that the geographical distribution of grocery chains remains uneven.
In some areas, including parts of the Northeast, Midwest, South Atlantic, and Pacific regions, grocery chains are plentiful. But in others – some with population centers large enough to feature a robust dollar store presence – they remain in short supply.
And though many superstore locations also provide a full array of grocery offerings, they, too, are often sparsely represented in areas with low concentrations of grocery chains.
For grocery chain operators seeking to expand, these underserved grocery markets can present a significant opportunity. And for civic stakeholders looking to broaden access to healthy food across communities, these areas highlight a policy challenge. For both groups, identifying underserved markets with significant untapped demand can be a critical first step in deciding where to focus grocery development initiatives.
This white paper dives into the location analytics to examine grocery store availability across the United States – and harnesses these insights to explore potential demand in some underserved markets. The report focuses on locations belonging to regional or nationwide grocery chains, rather than single-location stores.
Last year, grocery chains accounted for 43.4% of nationwide visits to food retailers – including grocery chains, superstores, and discount & dollar stores. But drilling down into the data for different areas of the country reveals striking regional variation – offering a glimpse into the variability of grocery store access throughout the U.S. In some states, grocery stores attract the majority of visit share to food retailers, while in others, dollar stores or superstores dominate the scene.
The ten states where residents were most likely to visit grocery chains in early 2024 – Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Massachusetts, California, Maryland, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island – were all on the East or West Coasts. In these states, as well as in Nevada and New York, grocery chain visits accounted for 50.0% or more of food retail visits between January and April 2024.
Meanwhile, residents of many West North Central and South Central states were much less likely to do their food shopping at grocery chains. In North Dakota, for example, grocery chain visits accounted for just 11.7% of visits to food retailers over the analyzed period. And in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, too, grocery stores drew less than 20.0% of the overall food retail foot traffic.
But low grocery store visit share does not necessarily indicate a lack of consumer interest or ability to support such stores. And in some of these underserved regions, existing grocery chains are seeing outsize visit growth – indicating growing demand for their offerings.
North Dakota, the state with the smallest share of visits going to grocery chains in early 2024, experienced a 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in grocery visits during the same period – nearly double the nationwide baseline of 5.7%. Other states with low grocery visit share, including Nebraska, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico, also experienced higher-than-average YoY grocery chain visit growth. This suggests significant untapped potential for grocery stores and a market that is hungry for more.
Alabama is one state where grocery chains accounted for a relatively small share of overall food retail foot traffic in early 2024 (just 28.9%) – but where YoY visit growth outperformed the nationwide average. And digging down even further into local grocery store visitation trends provides further evidence that at least in some places, low grocery visit share may be due to inadequate supply, rather than insufficient demand.
In Central Alabama, for example, many residents drive at least 10 miles to reach a local grocery chain. And several parts of the state, both rural and urban, feature clusters of grocery stores that draw customers from relatively far away.
But zooming in on YoY visitation data for local grocery chain locations shows that at least some of these areas likely harbor untapped demand. Take for example the Camden, Butler, Thomasville, and Gilbertown areas (circled in the map above). The Piggly Wiggly location in Butler, AL, drew 40.1% of visits from 10 or more miles away. The same store experienced a 23.3% YoY increase in visits in early 2024 – far above the statewide baseline of 6.6%. Meanwhile, the Super Foods location in Thomasville, AL, which drew 52.8% of visits from at least 10 miles away – experienced YoY visit growth of 12.3%. The Piggly Wiggly locations in Camden, AL and Gilbertown, AL saw similar trends.
At the same time, trade area analysis of the four locations reveals that the grocery stores had little to no trade area overlap during the analyzed period. Each store served specific areas, with minimal cannibalization among customer bases.
These metrics appear to highlight robust demand for grocery stores in the region – grocery visits are growing at a stronger rate than those in the overall state, people are willing to make the drive to these stores, and each one has little to no competition from the others.
While significant opportunity exists across the country, many communities still face considerable challenges in supporting large grocery stores. Though South Carolina has a significant number of grocery chain locations, for example, certain areas within the state have low access to food shopping opportunities. And one local government – Greenville County – is considering offering tax breaks to grocery stores that set up shop in the area, to improve local fresh food accessibility.
Placer.ai migration and visitation data shows that Greenville County is ripe for such initiatives: the county’s population grew by 4.8% over the past four years – with much of that increase a result of positive net migration. And YoY visits to Greenville County Grocery Stores have consistently outperformed state averages: In April 2024, grocery visits in the county grew by 6.1% YoY, while overall visits to grocery stores in South Carolina grew by 4.2%. This growth – both in terms of grocery visits and population – points to rising demand for grocery stores in Greenville County.
Analyzing the Greenville County grocery store trade areas with Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – offers further insight into local grocery shoppers’ particular demand and preferences.
Consumers in Greenville-area grocery store trade areas, for example, are more likely to be interested in “Mid-Range Grocery Stores” (including brands like Aldi, Kroger, and Lidl) than residents of grocery store trade areas in the state as a whole. This metric provides further evidence of local demand for grocery chains – and offers a glimpse into the kinds of specific grocery offerings likely to succeed in the area.
Grocery stores remain essential services for many consumers, providing a place to pick up fresh produce, meat, and other healthy food options. And many areas in the country are ripe for expansion, with eager customer bases and growing demand. Identifying such areas with location analytics can help both grocery store operators and municipal stakeholders provide their communities and customer bases with an enhanced grocery shopping experience that caters to local preferences.
Following COVID-era highs, domestic migration levels have begun to taper off – with the number of Americans moving within the U.S. hitting an all-time low, according to some sources, in 2023.
To be sure, some popular COVID-era destinations – including Idaho, the Carolinas, and Utah – saw their net domestic migration continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. But other states which had been relocation hotspots between February 2020 and February 2023, such as Wyoming and Texas, experienced negative net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Analyzing CBSA-level migration data reveals differences and similarities between last year’s migration patterns and COVID-era trends.
Between February 2020 and February 2023, seven out of the ten CBSAs posting the largest population increases due to inbound domestic migration were located in Florida. But between February 2023 and February 2024, the top 10 CBSAs with the largest net migrated percent of the population were significantly more diverse. Only four out of the ten CBSAs were located in Florida, and several new metro areas – including Provo-Orem, UT, Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA, and Boulder, CO – joined the list.
This white paper leverages a variety of location intelligence tools – including Placer.ai’s Migration Report, Niche Neighborhood Grades, and ACS Census Data location intelligence – to analyze two migration hotspots. Specifically, the report focuses on Daytona Beach, FL, which already appeared on the February 2020 to February 2023 list and has continued to see steady growth, and Boulder, CO, which has emerged as a new top destination. The data highlights the potential of CBSAs with unique value propositions to continue to attract newcomers despite ongoing housing headwinds.
The Boulder, CO CBSA has emerged as a domestic migration hotspot: The net influx of population between February 2023 and February 2024 (i.e. the total number of people that moved to Boulder from elsewhere in the U.S., minus those that left) constituted 3.1% of the CBSA’s February 2024 population.
The strong migration is partially due to the University of Colorado, Boulder’s growing popularity. But the metro area has also emerged as a flourishing tech hub, with Google, Apple, and Amazon all setting up shop in town, along with a wealth of smaller start ups.
Most domestic relocators tend to remain within state lines – so unsurprisingly, many of the recent newcomers to Boulder moved from other CBSAs in Colorado. But perhaps due to Boulder’s robust tech ecosystem, many of the new residents also came from Los Angeles, CA (6.6%) and San Francisco, CA (3.4%) – other CBSAs known for their thriving tech scenes.
At the same time, looking at the other CBSAs feeding migration to the area indicates that tech is likely not the only draw attracting people to Boulder: A significant share of relocators came from the CBSAs of Chicago, IL (6.1%), Dallas , TX (4.9%), and New York, NY (3.9%). The move from these relatively urbanized CBSAs to scenic Boulder indicates that some of the domestic migration to the area is likely driven by people looking for better access to nature or a general lifestyle change.
According to the U.S. News & World Report, Boulder ranked in second place in terms of U.S. cities with the best quality of life. Using Niche Neighborhood Grades to compare quality of life attributes in the Boulder CBSA and in the areas of origin dataset highlights some of the draw factors attracting newcomers to Boulder beyond the thriving tech scene.
The Boulder CBSA ranked higher than the metro areas of origin for “Public Schools,” “Health & Fitness,” “Fit for Families,” and “Access to Outdoor Activities.” These migration draw factors are likely helping Boulder attract more senior executives alongside younger tech workers – and can also explain why relocators from more urban metro areas may be choosing to make Boulder their home.
Boulder’s strong inbound migration numbers over the past year – likely driven by its flourishing tech scene and beautiful natural surroundings – reveal the growth potential of certain CBSAs regardless of wider housing market headwinds.
Florida experienced a population boom during the pandemic, and several CBSAs in the state – including the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL CBSA – have continued to welcome domestic relocators in high numbers. The CBSA’s anchor city, Daytona Beach – known for its Bike Week and NASCAR’s Daytona 500 – has also seen positive net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Americans planning for retirement or retirees operating on a fixed income are likely particularly interested in optimizing their living expenses. And given Daytona’s relative affordability, it’s no surprise that the median age in the areas of origin feeding migration to Daytona Beach tends to be on the older side.
According to the 2021 Census ACS 5-Year Projection data, the median age in Daytona Beach was 39.0. Meanwhile, the weighted median age in the areas of migration origin was 42.6, indicating that those moving to Daytona Beach may be older than the current residents of the city.
Zooming into the migration data on a zip code level also highlights Daytona Beach’s appeal to older Americans: The zip code welcoming the highest rates of domestic migration was 32124, home to both Jimmy Buffet’s Latitude Margaritaville’s 55+ community and the LPGA International Golf Club, host of the LPGA Tour. The median age in this zip code is also older than in Daytona Beach as a whole, and the weighted age in the zip codes of origin was even higher – suggesting that older Americans and retirees may be driving much of the migration to the area.
Looking at the migration draw factors for Daytona Beach also suggests that the city is particularly appealing to retirees, with the city scoring an A grade for its “Fit for Retirees.” But the city of Daytona Beach is also an attractive destination for anyone looking to elevate their leisure time, with the city scoring higher than Daytona Beach’s cities of migration origin for “Weather,” “Access to Restaurants,” or “Access to Nightlife.”
Like Boulder, Daytona’s scenery – including its famous beaches – is likely attracting newcomers looking to spend more time outdoors and improve their work-life balance. And like Boulder and its tech scene, Daytona Beach also has an extra pull factor – its affordability and fit for older Americans – that is likely helping the area continue to attract new residents, even as domestic migration slows down nationwide.
Although the overall pace of domestic migration has slowed, analyzing location intelligence data reveals several migration hotspots amidst the overall cooldown. Boulder and Daytona Beach each have a set of unique draw factors that seem to attract different populations – and the success of these regions highlights the many paths to migration growth in 2024.
