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Traffic to Darden banners remained relatively stable in 2025, with the company seeing an average increase of 1.2% in overall visits coupled with a slight dip of 0.3% in average visits per venue across its brands. Average visits per venue improved towards the end of the year relative to the annual average, growing 1.5% YoY in Q4 2025 – likely due to the closure of several Bahama Breeze restaurants in 2025, part of the company's plans to sunset the banner entirely by April 2026.
Analyzing traffic by banner points to clear resilience at the top of the market, with upscale casual and premium brands such as Yard House and Ruth's Chris Steakhouse generally showing the strongest and most consistent traffic growth. This pattern suggests that higher-income consumers remain relatively insulated and willing to spend, even amid broader volatility.
At the same time, LongHorn Steakhouse, one of Darden’s largest brands, also emerged as a standout performer, delivering steady positive traffic across multiple months. Given its scale within the portfolio, LongHorn likely made an outsized contribution to Darden’s overall positive traffic trends, helping to offset softness in other chains and reinforcing the company’s momentum.
Same-store YoY visit trends in recent months are very close to overall visit trends, suggesting that Darden’s traffic trends are largely same-store-driven rather than expansion-driven, with little evidence that unit growth is materially distorting overall traffic trends. Premium brands continue to perform well, and LongHorn is generating steady same-store growth across its large footprint, suggesting that Darden’s results are being driven by real consumer demand – especially among higher-income diners.
Darden’s results suggest that performance is being driven less by sheer scale and more by brand positioning, with concepts that offer either premium experiences or strong value perception (like LongHorn) capturing disproportionate demand. As consumer budgets remain tight, growth is likely to concentrate further in brands that clearly justify their price point – leaving middle-of-the-road concepts increasingly pressured to sharpen their value proposition or differentiate more meaningfully.
For up-to-date restaurant foot traffic, visit our free Industry Trends tool.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Shopping centers continued their growth streak in February 2026, with visits to all three formats – indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls – up year-over-year (YoY). After leading traffic gains in 2025, indoor malls took a back seat once again to open-air centers which led the category with a 7.3% YoY increase in February visits. Importantly, outlet malls followed closely behind with foot traffic up 7.2% YoY, after increasing 3.5% YoY in January 2026 – suggesting that the format is regaining momentum after its recent lull.
Even more notable is that when isolating the peak mall hours (11 AM to 8 PM), outlet malls led all formats in year-over-year visit growth across every daypart – 11 AM to 2 PM, 2 PM to 5 PM, and 5 PM to 8 PM. And while evening gains were strongest across all mall types, outlet malls posted the most significant increase during those hours.
This evening momentum may reflect a broader shift in how outlet centers are positioning themselves. Rather than serving solely as transactional shopping destinations, some are expanding their food and experiential offerings to encourage longer, more social visits. Recent examples include the addition of a craft beer truck at San Marcos Premium Outlets in Texas and the debut of a highly anticipated Japanese-Peruvian concept restaurant at Sawgrass Mills in Florida, which are likely drawing more leisure-oriented visitors to the centers.
Outlet mall's traffic softness in recent years likely reflected intensifying competition for value-driven apparel from off-price retailers and resale channels, which siphoned off some of the bargain-focused demand that traditionally fueled outlet visits. But if outlet malls can successfully differentiate through dining and experiential offerings – extending visits beyond purely transactional trips – they may be better positioned for a stronger 2026 as they compete on experience as well as price.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
With prices still elevated and consumer sentiment down significantly from last year, appetite for savings is stronger than ever. But as shoppers pull back on non-essentials, how are discretionary-oriented value chains like Five Below and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet holding up?
In its most recent reported quarter (ending November 1, 2025), Ollie’s delivered a 3.3% increase in same-store sales, driven by a mid-single-digit rise in transactions even as average ticket declined slightly. Five Below posted even stronger comp growth (+14.3%), fueled by both higher transaction counts and larger baskets.
And both chains saw solid year-over-year (YoY) overall traffic growth during the final months of 2025 – including the all-important holiday season – and into 2026. This performance suggests that even in a cautious consumer environment, demand for discretionary value remains resilient.
Customer loyalty is also increasing at both chains. For Ollie’s, which enjoys a slightly higher share of repeat visits, loyalty – fueled by its constantly shifting inventory of closeout merchandise – is further reinforced by the growing Ollie’s Army rewards program.
For Five Below, the gains appear to reflect the strength of its value positioning and evolving mix of affordable, fun indulgences – from seasonal décor to trendy toys – that create a steady cadence of newness and encourage frequent visits, even without a formal loyalty program.
And as both chains continue to grow, sustaining this repeat engagement will be critical to supporting comps and maximizing productivity across an expanding store base.
With traffic growth supported by a growing base of loyal customers, the discount segment appears well-positioned to maintain its edge into 2026. But how much runway remains before expansion begins to dilute store productivity?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Dollar General and Dollar Tree have both been thriving, delivering positive same-store comps for several quarters in a row even as they continue expanding their footprints. But how long can both keep winning? As the two chains grow, will the overlap between them begin to pressure performance?
Despite intensifying competition from mass merchants like Walmart, the data suggests that Dollar General and Dollar Tree still have meaningful runway for growth. Both retailers are expanding their footprints while maintaining traffic at existing stores – a sign of robust demand.
Dollar General, now a staple grocery destination for many households, posted mid- to high-single-digit same-store traffic gains between September 2025 and January 2026, even as it deepened its expansion into rural America. Meanwhile, Dollar Tree, which added more than 300 stores over the past year, maintained flat to modestly positive same-store traffic trends.
As price-conscious consumers prioritize value, overall demand for dollar stores appears to be expanding rather than simply shifting between banners.
Visitor behavior at the two chains helps explain why there is room for both to continue expanding. In addition to serving different geographies – Dollar General maintains a stronger presence in rural communities and in the eastern United States, while Dollar Tree has greater penetration in the West – the banners also fulfill different shopping missions.
As the chart below shows, 25.0% of Dollar General visitors in 2025 were frequent shoppers, defined as four or more visits in an average month, compared to just 9.2% at Dollar Tree. Average dwell time also diverged, with shoppers spending 20.0 minutes per visit at Dollar General versus 13.6 minutes at Dollar Tree.
Those patterns suggest that Dollar General functions as a routine essentials stop embedded in weekly shopping habits – a consumables-driven positioning that appears to be strengthening as the company expands large-format stores and invests further in fresh food offerings.
Dollar Tree, by contrast, plays a more targeted role, capturing shorter, mission-driven trips often tied to seasonal goods, party supplies, or discretionary bargains. And as it leans further into higher-ticket discretionary items through its multi-price 3.0 format – while also expanding its consumables assortment – the chain is reinforcing its treasure-hunt appeal while gradually becoming more relevant for routine trips.
All in all, the data points to a category that is expanding rather than consolidating. Consistent same-store visit growth, ongoing store expansion, and differentiated shopping behavior all suggest that Dollar General and Dollar Tree are thriving side by side – serving distinct missions within a shared value-driven ecosystem.
For more data-driven retail insights, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Beauty retail continues to navigate a complex landscape in which discretionary spending remains constrained and digital and social commerce play an increasingly significant role. But diving into the foot traffic trends for Ulta Beauty and Bath & Body Works – two of the sector’s largest players – reveals how the right strategy can drive both brick-and-mortar and online growth in a dynamic retail environment.
Ulta delivered fiscal Q3 results that exceeded expectations. Management credited the success of Ulta Beauty Unleashed, including investments in digital capabilities, celebrity activations, and brand launches that strengthened both e-commerce and in-store performance. One of the key milestones for the company during the quarter included the launch of the Ulta Beauty Marketplace, which expands the assortment of products available to Ulta’s online shoppers.
And while year-over-year (YoY) visits and visits per venue were essentially flat in December 2025, foot traffic trends in recent months suggest the company could be on track for another positive quarter.
In its most recent earnings call, Bath & Body Works reported sales declines, pointing to macroeconomic pressure on consumers and an elevated promotional environment. In response, management outlined a “consumer-first formula” centered on product innovation, an elevated in-store experience, renewed cultural relevance, and enhanced digital discovery – including the launch of an Amazon storefront.
Yet Bath & Body Works’ YoY monthly visits remained positive throughout 2025 and into early 2026, indicating that the brand has maintained relevance even as consumers grew more value conscious. If Bath & Body Works can execute on its updated strategic direction, it may be positioned to build on its existing traffic momentum and improve overall performance in the months ahead.
Younger audience engagement emerged as a theme in both companies’ strategic discussions, whether by way of Ulta’s campus activations or Bath & Body Works’ network of influencers.
An AI-powered analysis of each brand’s potential versus captured markets – comparing the trade areas from which they could draw visitors with the households that ultimately account for in-store traffic – offers additional context to the companies’ investment in this key demographic.
In 2025, both retailers attracted an outsized share of family-oriented segments. Wealthy Suburban Families, Upper Suburban Diverse Families, and Near-Urban Diverse Families were overrepresented in captured markets relative to potential markets for both brands. Meanwhile, shares of Young Urban Singles, Young Professionals, and Educated Urbanites (well-educated, younger consumers) were smaller in both brands’ captured markets than in their potential markets.
The gap between captured and potential audiences points to a meaningful opportunity that Ulta and Bath & Body Works seem to understand. While both retailers resonate with established, family households, incremental growth may hinge on driving more traffic from younger consumers.
Ulta and Bath & Body Works’ traffic patterns suggest that beauty demand remains resilient, even as consumer spending patterns evolve. And both brands are positioning for their next phase of growth through multi-pronged strategies that address deepening engagement from younger audiences.
Will these beauty retailers build on their successes in the coming months? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
For downtowns still waiting on office attendance or international tourism to fully rebound, Sacramento offers a more proactive recovery model. Rather than anchoring its future to any single demand driver, the city has spent the past several years deliberately engineering demand – using programming, placemaking, and policy to create the kinds of “social collisions” that give people reasons to show up, stay longer, and come back.
Like many cities, Sacramento has navigated prolonged disruptions to traditional downtown demand streams, from office attendance to international tourism and business travel. But instead of waiting for those patterns to fully normalize, city leaders have leaned into what they could control – regional identity and local draw.
Elevating the city’s creative and cultural assets while strengthening its positioning as the “Farm-to-Fork Capital of America” through major festivals like Terra Madre Americas, has helped Sacramento stabilize leisure visitation even amid broader uncertainty. Food-forward events, large-scale music festivals, and major league sports – including NBA Kings games and MLB Athletics games based in West Sacramento through 2027 – have created reasons to visit that do not depend on office mandates or long-haul travel.
And the impact of this strategy is showing up in visitor behavior. Weekend out-of-market visits to downtown Sacramento are on the rise, and visitors are staying longer – signaling sustained engagement with the urban core.
At the center of Sacramento’s strategy is a belief that programming functions as economic infrastructure. Over the past decade, the downtown has expanded from hosting a relatively limited number of annual events to more than 200 today, ranging from major festivals to weekly farmers markets.
These events translate directly into foot traffic and revenue for retail, dining, and entertainment. The chart below shows how local programming draws visitors into DOCO, the Downtown Commons entertainment and retail district adjacent to Golden 1 Center, with audience composition varying by event. Family-oriented programming such as the Sacramento Santa Parade attracts more affluent family households, while events like the California Brewers Festival draw a higher share of younger singles and early-career professionals.
Event days are also associated with longer dwell times within the district, suggesting deeper engagement with the surrounding retail environment.
The city has also taken other steps to generate “social collisions”. Working with the city’s nighttime economy manager, Sacramento introduced a limited entertainment permit that removes one-size-fits-all regulatory barriers and allows brick-and-mortar businesses to host local performances at a far lower cost. And these policy changes were reinforced with targeted investments – like a six-block illuminated pedestrian corridor connecting key downtown anchors, which shifts colors for Sacramento Kings games or seasonal moments.
Sacramento’s downtown recovery offers a clear lesson for cities navigating long-term structural change: Waiting for old patterns to return is far riskier than designing new ones. By leaning into culture and programming, Sacramento is strengthening the downtown economy while delivering value to local residents and the broader region.
Walmart, Target, and Costco are three of the most popular retailers in the country, drawing millions of shoppers through their doors each day. Each of these retail giants boasts distinct strengths and strategies that cater to their unique customer bases, allowing them to thrive in a highly competitive market.
This white paper takes a closer look at some of the factors that are helping the three chains flourish. How does Walmart’s positioning as a family-friendly retailer help it drive visits in its more competitive markets? How can Target leverage its reach to drive more loyal visits? And what does the increase in young shoppers frequenting membership warehouse clubs mean for Costco?
We dove into the location analytics to explore these questions further.
Examining monthly visitation patterns for the three retail giants shows Costco’s wholesale club model leading the way with consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth – ranging from 6.1% in stormy January 2024 to 13.3% in June. Family favorite Walmart followed closely behind, seeing YoY foot traffic growth during all but two months, when visits briefly trailed slightly behind 2023 levels before rebounding.
Target, meanwhile, had a slower start to the year, with visits trending below 2023 levels for most of January to April. Over this same period (the three months ending May 2024), Target reported a 3.7% decline in YoY comparable sales. But since then, things have begun to turn around for the chain, with YoY visits rising in May (2.5%), June (8.9%), and July (4.7%). This renewed visit growth into the second half of the year bodes well for the superstore – and the ongoing back-to-school season may well push visits up further as the summer winds down.
For all three chains, Q2 2024’s visit success has likely been bolstered in part by summer deals and intensifying price wars – as the retailers slash prices to woo inflation-weary consumers back to the store.
Over the past few years, consumer behaviors have been changing rapidly in response to shifting economic conditions. This next section explores some of these changes at Walmart, Target, and Costco, to better understand what may be driving these shifts.
One way that consumers have traditionally responded to inflation and other headwinds has been through the adoption of mission-driven shopping – making fewer, but longer, trips to retailers, so that every visit counts. Superstores and wholesale clubs, which offer one-stop shopping experiences, have long been prime destinations for these extended shopping trips. And even during periods when visits have lagged, these retailers have often benefited from extended dwell times – leading to bigger basket sizes.
A look at changes in average dwell times at Walmart and Target suggests that as YoY visits have picked up, dwell times have come down – perhaps reflecting a normalization of consumers’ shopping patterns. With inflation stabilizing and gas prices lower than they were in 2022 and 2023, customers may feel less pressure to consolidate shopping trips than they have in recent years.
In contrast, Costco’s comparatively long dwell times have remained stable over the past several years. The warehouse club’s bulk offerings, plentiful free samples, and inexpensive food court encourage shoppers to spend more time browsing the aisles than they would at other retailers. And even if mission-driven shopping continues to subside, Costco customers will likely keep on making extra-long shopping trips.
While inflation is cooling faster than expected, prices remain high, and new players are stepping into the retail space occupied by Walmart, Target, and Costco – especially dollar stores. Though higher-income customers increasingly rely on the three retail giants for many of their purchases, customers of more modest means are often drawn to the rock-bottom prices offered at dollar stores.
And analyzing the cross-shopping patterns of visitors to Walmart, Target, and Costco shows that growing shares of visitors to the three behemoths also visit Dollar Tree on a regular basis. In Q2 2019, the share of visitors to Walmart, Target, and Costco who frequented Dollar Tree at least three times ranged between 9.8% and 13.7%. But by Q2 2024, that share rose to 16.7%-21.6%.
Dollar Tree is leaning into this increased interest among superstore shoppers. Over the past year, Dollar Tree added some 350 Dollar Tree locations, even as it shuttered nearly 400 Family Dollar stores. And the chain recently acquired the leases of some 170 99 Cents Only Stores – offering Dollar Tree access to a customer base accustomed to buying everything from groceries to household goods. As Dollar Tree continues to grow its footprint and expand its food offerings, the chain will be better positioned than ever to provide a real challenge to Walmart, Target, and Costco.
Still, the three retail giants each have unique offerings that distinguish them from dollar stores. This next section examines what sets Walmart, Target, and Costco apart – and how they can continue to strengthen their competitive edge.
With competition on the rise, Walmart, Target, and Costco must display agility in navigating an ever-evolving market landscape. This section dives into the data for each chain’s more successful metro areas to see what factors are helping them outperform nationwide averages – and what metrics the retailers can harness to try to replicate these results nationwide.
Target recently expanded its Target Circle Rewards program, rolling out three new tiers for its 100 million members. And this focus on loyalty has proven successful for the chain. Demographic and visitation data reveal a strong correlation between the median household incomes (HHIs) of Target locations’ captured markets across CBSAs (core-based statistical areas), and their share of loyal visitors in Q2 2024: CBSAs where Target locations’ captured markets had higher median HHIs also tended to draw more repeat monthly visitors.
Target’s captured markets in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, LA CBSA, for example, featured a median HHI of $89.8K in Q2 2024 – and 48.0% of the chain’s LA visitors frequented a Target at least twice a month during the quarter. Target stores in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI CBSA, where the chain’s captured markets had a median HHI of $88.7K in Q2 2024, also had a loyalty rate of 48.0%.
Target generally attracts a more affluent audience than Walmart. And even as the superstore slashes prices to attract more price-conscious consumers, the retailer is also taking steps likely to enhance its popularity among higher-income households. In April 2024, Target debuted a paid membership tier within its loyalty program offering perks like same-day delivery for a fee. Maintaining and expanding these premium offerings will be key for Target as it seeks to attract more affluent customers and replicate its high-performing results in CBSAs nationwide.
The persistent inflation of the past few years, while challenging for some retailers, has also created new opportunities – particularly for wholesalers. Membership warehouse clubs, including Costco, are gaining popularity among younger shoppers, a cohort often looking for new ways to stretch their more limited budgets. An October 2023 survey revealed that nearly 15% of respondents aged 18 to 24 and 17% of those aged 25 to 30 shop at Costco.
A closer look at some of Costco’s best-performing CBSAs for YoY visit-per-location growth highlights the significance of these younger shoppers: In H1 2024, the company’s YoY visit-per-location growth was strongest in areas with higher-than-average shares of young urban singles.
For example, the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA CBSA experienced visit-per-location growth of 10.4% YoY in H1 2024, while the nationwide average stood at 7.9%. And the CBSA’s share of Young Urban Singles, defined by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset as “singles starting their careers in trade and service jobs,” was 12.1%, well above Costco’s nationwide average of 7.3%.
Walmart is a one-stop shop for everything from affordable groceries to clothing to home furnishings, making it especially popular among families. The retailer actively courts this segment with baby offerings designed to meet the needs of both kids and parents, virtual offerings in the metaverse, and collectible toys.
And visitation data reveals a connection between the extent of different Walmart locations’ YoY visit growth and the share of households with children in their captured markets.
In H1 2024, nationwide visits to Walmart increased by 4.1% YoY, while the share of households with children in the chain’s overall captured market hovered just under the nationwide baseline. But in some CBSAs where Walmart outpaced this nationwide growth, the retail giant also proved especially adept at attracting parental households – outpacing relevant statewide baselines.
In Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA, for example, Walmart experienced 5.0% YoY visit growth in H1 2024 – while the share of households with children in the chain’s local captured market stood 7% above the Massachusetts state average. And in Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI, where Walmart’s share of parental households outpaced the Minnesota state average by an even wider 15% margin, the retailer saw impressive 7.3% YoY visit growth. This pattern repeated itself in other metro areas, suggesting that there may be a correlation between local Walmart locations’ visit growth and their relative ability to draw households with children.
Walmart can continue solidifying its market position by leaning into its family-oriented offerings and expanding its footprint in regions with growing populations of young families.
Walmart, Target, and Costco all experienced YoY visit growth in the final months of H1 2024, with Costco leading the way. And though the three chains still face considerable challenges, each one brings unique strengths to the table. By continuously innovating and responding to changing market conditions, Walmart, Target, and Costco can not only overcome obstacles but also leverage them to reinforce their market positions and drive continued growth.
The first Lollapalooza – a four-day music festival – took place in 1991. Chicago’s Grant Park became the event’s permanent home (at least in the United States) in 2005, drawing thousands of revelers and music fans to the park each year.
This year, the festival once again demonstrated its powerful impact on the city. On August 1st, 2024, visits to Grant Park surged by 1,313.2% relative to the YTD daily average, as crowds converged on the park to see Chappell Roan’s much-anticipated performance. And during the first three days of the event, the event drew significantly more foot traffic than in 2023 – with visits up 18.9% to 35.9% compared to the first three days of last year’s festival (August 3rd to 5th, 2023).
Lollapalooza led to a dramatic spike in visits to Grant Park – and it also attracted a different type of visitor compared to the rest of the year.
Analyzing Grant Park’s captured market with Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive dataset reveals that Lollapalooza attendees are more likely to belong to the “Young Professionals” and “Ultra Wealthy Families” segment groups than the typical Grant Park visitor.
By contrast, the “Near-Urban Diverse Families” segment group, comprising middle-class diverse families living in or near cities, made up only 6.5% of visitors during the festival, compared to 12.0% during the rest of the year.
Additionally, visitors during Lollapalooza came from areas with higher HHIs than both the nationwide baseline of $76.1K and the average for park visitors throughout the year. Understanding the demographic profile of visitors to the park during Lollapalooza can help planners and city officials tailor future events to these segment groups – or look for ways to make the festival accessible to a wider range of music lovers.
Lollapalooza’s impact on Chicago extended beyond the boundaries of Grant Park, with nearby hotels seeing remarkable surges in foot traffic. The Congress Plaza Hotel on South Michigan Avenue witnessed a staggering 249.1% rise in visits during the week of July 29, 2024, compared to the YTD visit average. And Travelodge on East Harrison Street saw an impressive 181.8% increase. These spikes reflect the festival’s draw not just for locals but for out-of-town visitors who fill hotels across the city.
The North Michigan Avenue retail corridor also enjoyed a significant increase in foot traffic during the festival, with visits on Thursday, August 1st 56.0% higher than the YTD Thursday visit average. On Friday, August 2nd, visits to the corridor were 55.7% higher than the Friday visit average. These numbers highlight Lollapalooza’s role in driving economic activity across Chicago, as festival-goers venture beyond the park to explore the city’s vibrant retail and hospitality offerings.
City parks often serve as community hubs, and Flushing Meadows Corona Park in Queens, NY, has been a major gathering point for New Yorkers. The park hosted one of New York’s most beloved summer concerts – Governors Ball – which moved from Governors Island to Flushing Meadows in 2023.
During the festival (June 9th -11th, 2024), musicians like Post Malone and The Killers drew massive crowds to the park, with visits soaring to the highest levels seen all year. On June 9th, the opening day of the festival, foot traffic in the park was up 214.8% compared to the YTD daily average, and at its height, on June 8th, the festival drew 392.7% more visits than the YTD average.
The park also hosted other big events this summer – a July 21st set by DMC helped boost visits to 185.1% above the YTD average. And the Hong Kong Dragon Boat Festival on August 3rd and 4th led to major visit boosts of 221.4% and 51.6%, respectively.
These events not only draw large crowds, but also highlight the park’s role as a space where cultural and civic life can find expression, flourish, and contribute to the health of local communities.
Analyzing changes in Flushing Meadows Corona Park’s trade area size offers insight into how far people are willing to travel for these events. During Governors Ball, for example, the park’s trade area ballooned to 254.5 square miles, showing the festival's wide appeal. On July 20th, by contrast, when the park hosted several local bands and DJs, the trade area was a much more modest 57.0 square miles.
Summer events drive community engagement, economic activity, and civic pride. Cities that invest in their parks and event hubs, fostering lively and inclusive spaces, can create lasting value for both residents and visitors, enriching the cultural and social life of urban areas.
For more data-driven civic stories, visit Placer.ai.
The pandemic and economic headwinds that marked the past few years presented the multi-billion dollar hotel industry with significant challenges. But five years later, the industry is rallying – and some hotel segments are showing significant growth.
This white paper delves into location analytics across six major hotel categories – Luxury Hotels, Upper Upscale Hotels, Upscale Hotels, Upper Midscale Hotels, Midscale Hotels, and Economy Hotels – to explore the current state of the American hospitality market. The report examines changes in guest behavior, personas, and characteristics and looks at factors driving current visitation trends.
Overall, visits to hotels were 4.3% lower in Q2 2024 than in Q2 2019 (pre-pandemic). But this metric only tells part of the story. A deeper dive into the data shows that each hotel tier has been on a more nuanced recovery trajectory.
Economy chains – those offering the most basic accommodations at the lowest prices – saw visits down 24.6% in Q2 2024 compared to pre-pandemic – likely due in part to hotel closures that have plagued the tier in recent years. Though these chains were initially less impacted by the pandemic, they were dealt a significant blow by inflation – and have seen visits decline over the past three years. As hotels that cater to the most price-sensitive guests, these chains are particularly vulnerable to rising costs, and the first to suffer when consumer confidence takes a hit.
Luxury Hotels, on the other hand, have seen accelerated visit growth over the past year – and have succeeded in closing their pre-pandemic visit gap. Upscale chains, too, saw Q2 2024 visits on par with Q2 2019 levels. As tiers that serve wealthier guests with more disposable income, Luxury and Upscale Hotels are continuing to thrive in the face of headwinds.
But it is the Upper Midscale level – a tier that includes brands like Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Fairfield by Marriott, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Hampton by Hilton – that has experienced the most robust visit growth compared to pre-pandemic. In Q2 2024, Upper Midscale Hotels drew 3.5% more visits than in Q2 2019. And during last year’s peak season (Q3 2023), Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest visit boost of any analyzed tier.
As mid-range hotels that still offer a broad range of amenities, Upper Midscale chains strike a balance between indulgence and affordability. And perhaps unsurprisingly, hotel operators have been investing in this tier: In Q4 2023, Upper Midscale Hotels had the highest project count of any tier in the U.S. hotel construction and renovation pipeline.
The shift in favor of Upper Midscale Hotels and away from Economy chains is also evident when analyzing changes in relative visit share among the six hotel categories.
Upper Midscale hotels have always been major players: In H1 2019 they drew 28.7% of overall hotel visits – the most of any tier. But by H1 2024, their share of visits increased to 31.2%. Upscale Hotels – the second-largest tier – also saw their visit share increase, from 24.8% to 26.1%.
Meanwhile, Economy, Midscale, and Upper Upscale Hotels saw drops in visit share – with Economy chains, unsurprisingly, seeing the biggest decline. Luxury Hotels, for their parts, held firmly onto their piece of the pie, drawing 2.8% of visits in H1 2024.
Who are the visitors fueling the Upper Midscale visit revival? This next section explores shifts in visitor demographics to four Upper Midscale chains that are outperforming pre-pandemic visit levels: Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, Fairfield by Marriott, and Hampton by Hilton.
Analyzing the captured markets* of the four chains with demographics from STI: Popstats (2023) shows variance in the relative affluence of their visitor bases.
Fairfield by Marriott drew visitors from areas with a median household income (HHI) of $84.0K in H1 2024, well above the nationwide average of $76.1K. Hampton by Hilton and Trademark Collection by Wyndham, for their parts, drew guests from areas with respective HHIs of $79.6K and $78.5K – just above the nationwide average. Meanwhile, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts drew visitors from areas below the nationwide average.
But all four brands saw increases in the median HHIs of their captured markets over the past five years. This provides a further indication that it is wealthier consumers – those who have had to cut back less in the face of inflation – who are driving hotel recovery in 2024.
(*A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice.)
Much of the Upper Midscale visit growth is being driven by chain expansion. But in some areas of the country, the average number of visits to individual hotel locations is also on the rise – highlighting especially robust growth potential.
Analyzing visits to existing Upper Midscale chains in four metropolitan areas with booming tourism industries – Salt Lake City, UT, Palm Bay, FL, San Diego, CA, and Richmond, VA – shows that these markets feature robust untapped demand.
Utah, for example, has emerged as a tourist hotspot in recent years – with millions of visitors flocking each year to local destinations like Salt Lake City to see the sights and take in the great outdoors. And Upper Midscale hotels in the region are reaping the benefits. In H1 2024, the overall number of visits to Upper Midscale chains in Salt Lake City was 69.4% higher than in H1 2019. Though some of this increase can be attributed to local chain expansion, the average number of visits to each individual Upper Midscale location in the area also rose by 12.5% over the same period.
Palm Bay, FL (the Space Coast) – another tourist favorite – is experiencing a similar trend. Between H1 2019 and H1 2024, overall visits to local Upper Midscale hotel chains grew by 36.4% – while the average number of visits per location increased a substantial 16.9%. Given this strong demand, it may come as no surprise that the area is undergoing a hotel construction boom. Upper Midscale hotels in other areas with flourishing tourism sectors, like San Diego, CA and Richmond, VA, are seeing similar trends, with increases in both overall visits and and in the average number of visits per location.
Though Economy chains have underperformed versus other categories in recent years, the tier does feature some bright spots. Some extended-stay brands in the Economy tier – hotels with perks and amenities that cater to the needs of longer-stay travelers – are succeeding despite category headwinds.
Choice Hotels’ portfolio, for example, includes WoodSpring Suites, an Economy chain offering affordable extended-stay accommodations in 35 states. In H1 2024, the chain drew 7.7% more visits than in the first half of 2019 – even as the wider Economy sector continued to languish. InTown Suites, another Economy extended stay chain, saw visits increase by 8.9% over the same period.
And location intelligence shows that the success of these two chains is likely being driven, in part, by their growing appeal to young, well-educated professionals. In H1 2019, households belonging to Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Young Professionals” segment made up 9.6% of WoodSpring Suites’ captured market. But by H1 2024, the share of this group jumped dramatically to 13.3%. At the same time, InTown Suites saw its share of Young Professionals increase from 12.0% to 13.4%.
Whether due to an affinity for prolonged “workcations” (so-called “bleisure” excursions) or an embrace of super-commuting, younger guests have emerged as key drivers of growth for the extended stay segment. And by offering low–cost accommodations that meet the needs of these travelers, Economy chains can continue to grow their share of the pie.
The hospitality industry recovery continues – led by Upper Midscale Hotels, which offer elevated experiences that don’t break the bank. But today’s market has room for other tiers as well. By keeping abreast of local visitation patterns and changing consumer profiles, hotels across chain scales can personalize the visitor experience and drive customer satisfaction.
