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Chipotle, Wingstop, and Shake Shack have emerged as restaurant leaders, thriving and outperforming the wider fast-casual and quick-service restaurant (QSR) categories. How did these chains perform in Q3 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Chipotle, Wingstop, and Shake Shack have become some of the most popular dining chains in the nation, each within its own respective niche: Chipotle excels at health-focused Tex-Mex meals, Wingstop serves up chicken wings and other game-day style dishes, and Shake Shack is known for its burgers and frozen custards. All three chains are leaning into growing demand for their offerings by adding new restaurants at a brisk clip. And for all three, the investment in fleet expansion is paying off, driving double-digit YoY visit growth.
Of the three chains, Wingstop enjoyed the strongest YoY growth between June and September of this year, with visits rising 16.5% to 33.5% throughout the analyzed period. Shake Shack, for its part, saw visits increase between 12.4% and 25.9%. Meanwhile, Chipotle, continuing several years of visit growth, posted 10.0% to 12.9% YoY boosts. In contrast, the overall quick-service and fast-casual restaurant segments saw much more muted performance, with QSR visits hovering at or slightly below 2023 levels and fast-casual segments seeing modest visit upticks.
One key driver behind the significant foot traffic growth for these three chains is their aggressive expansion. Wingstop, which saw the largest year-over-year (YoY) increase in foot traffic, opened some 138 new restaurants in 2024 alone, and hopes to open around 300 by year’s end. Chipotle has also been expanding rapidly, with around 52 new stores in 2024 so far and more on the way. Shake Shack, aiming to open 80 new locations this year, is similarly focused on growth.
A closer look at shifts in the average number of visits to the chains’ individual locations shows that this expansion is being met with strong demand. Chipotle and Wingstop saw monthly YoY visit-per-location increases throughout the analyzed period, while Shake Shack saw increases between June and August and experienced just a minor dip in September.
These foot traffic trends – both across the chains and at individual locations – indicate that the new stores are successfully attracting steady customer interest.
Another key factor driving success for the three chains is their pivot towards convenient takeaway options. Chipotle has focused on expanding its Chipotlane drive-thru service, while Wingstop has invested in an in-store digital platform meant to streamline the ordering process. And despite Shake Shack’s “anti fast-food” identity, the chain has also embraced drive-thrus and ordering kiosks to speed up service.
The data suggests that consumers appreciate the increased convenience of these quicker options: In Q3 2024, short visits (10 minutes or less) to Chipotle, Wingstop, and Shake Shack surged between 17.0% and 25.5% compared to Q3 2023.
For Chipotle and Shake Shack, short visits increased significantly more than extended ones in Q3, likely due in part to the brands’ intense focus on drive-thrus: Of the 271 restaurants opened by Chipotle in 2023, 238 included Chipotlanes. And since adding its first drive-thru in 2022, Shake Shack has expanded this option to more than thirty locations. For Wingstop, longer visits increased somewhat more YoY than shorter ones – but in the wake of the chain’s rapid expansion, short and long visits both increased more than 20% YoY.
Chipotle, Wingstop, and Shake Shack are succeeding, consistently increasing foot traffic and visits per location. Through strategic expansion and the adoption of drive-through and online ordering, these brands have firmly established their presence in the fast-casual and quick-service dining landscape.
Will the three restaurants continue to drive visit growth? Visit Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
With Q3 2024 in the rearview mirror, we dove into the data to check in with two smoothie and bowl spots that are firmly in expansion mode – Playa Bowls and Tropical Smoothie Cafe. What lies behind their smashing success? And what awaits them in Q4?
We dove into the data to find out.
Looking first at quarterly YoY visit trends shows both Playa Bowls and Tropical Smoothie Cafe experiencing substantial year-over-year visit growth during the first three quarters of 2024 – driven in part by their rapidly growing fleets. In Q1 2024, Playa Bowls – recently acquired by Sycamore Partners – saw a YoY foot traffic jump of 8.7%. And Tropical Smoothie Cafe, acquired by Blackstone this year, saw a YoY visit boost of 8.7%. For both chains, this positive trajectory continued, though at a more moderate pace, through Q3 2024.
What's behind the fast expansion and visit growth of these smoothie leaders? With high food prices still weighing on consumers, and health still top of mind for many, brands that provide nutritious, affordable indulgences are poised to win. Those that do so while meeting the rising demand for quick and convenient dining options are especially well-positioned to thrive.
And drilling down deeper into the data for Playa Bowls and Tropical Smoothie Cafe shows that the two chains’ outsize success is being fueled, in large part, by customers dropping by for a quick pick-me-up on the go, rather than a sit-down meal.
In Q3 2024, the number of short visits to Playa Bowls (i.e. those lasting less than 10 minutes) increased 9.4% YoY, while longer visits increased just 4.5%. (In Q3 2024, short visits accounted for 31.2% of visits to Playa Bowls, compared with 30.3% in Q3 2023). This suggests that robust demand for off-premises dining has emerged as a major driver of growth for the brand.
A similar trend emerged at Tropical Smoothie Cafe, where nearly half of all Q3 2024 visits (48.4%) lasted less than 10 minutes – likely due to the chain’s ubiquitous drive-thrus. Short visits to Tropical Smoothie Cafe increased 6.0% YoY in Q3, while more extended visits increased 3.3%.
Playa Bowls and Tropical Smoothie Cafe have also fueled success by marking special calendar days with limited-time promotions.
For Playa Bowls, for example, the busiest day of 2024 so far was April 6th – National Acai Day – when the juice bar offered rewards members $5 off any acai bowl. The promotion was wildly successful, fueling a remarkable 122.7% visit surge compared to a year-to-date (January to September) daily average.
For Tropical Smoothie Cafe, it was National Flip Flop Day (yes, that’s a thing) that drew major crowds this year. On May 29th, 2024, the brand marked the occasion with free Island Punch Smoothies for guests who visited participating locations while wearing flip flops. And the promotion was a hit, generating enough excitement to drive a 94.0% visit spike for the brand.
Successful harnessing of the growing demand for convenient, healthy, and affordable off-premises dining options together with unbeatable limited-time promotions have helped propel growth for both Playa Bowls and Tropical Smoothie Cafe.
Will visits to the two chains continue to surge in the months ahead?
Follow Placer.ai’s data driven dining analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Most chains attending the 2024 Fast Casual Executive Summit in Denver acknowledged that this year has been difficult (unless you happen to be Chipotle, CAVA, or sweetgreen). We’ve highlighted a number of the challenges restaurant operators faced this past year, including inclement weather to start the year, the restaurant value wars of 2024, encroachment from other food retail channels, and the rising cost of operating a restaurant, which has resulted in increased bankruptcies. Our data validates this stance–our data shows that the fast casual category excluding the three aforementioned chains has seen year-over-year visitation declines.
Why are these three chains outperforming? As we’ve discussed in the past, we believe it comes down to (1) innovation; and (2) operational excellence. Recently, we looked at the importance of Chipotle’s Chicken al Pastor relaunch for Q2 2024 sales trends, sweetgreen’s increase in comparable visits that was helped by the launch of Caramelized Garlic Steak as a protein option, and CAVA’s exceptionally strong visitation trends due the launch of grilled steak at the beginning of June. However, innovation is only part of the outperformance, as each of these chains have also done a great job integrating their digital ordering platforms and in-store assembly line efforts, allowing for greater customization (something consumers appear to be willing to pay a premium for) and driving some of the strongest throughput numbers we’ve observed with our data.
The executives we spoke to at this week’s event had a gameplan to overcome these challenges in 2025.
Another executive told us that the currently challenging backdrop would ultimately make chains better operators. Not every chain can be Chipotle, CAVA, or sweetgreen, but there are still a lot of their strategies that restaurants can adopt to improve their own operations.
The inaugural Shoptalk Fall event brought a new energy to Chicago this week. The smaller format event allowed us to dive deeper into the trends across the retail industry and hear from key retail players about their initiatives and innovations across the industry.
One thing that is clear, retailers are bullish about physical retail. Many retailers shared plans for store openings in 2025, and there is a real focus on creating the right types of store formats and finding locations that are in line with a brand’s consumers. We may truly be at a point of inflection from a channel perspective, and physical retail is likely to become a more important part of the equation.
There’s a real energy shift in the industry in regard to the importance of stores, and it’s refreshing to see. As the industry settles from the migration shifts of consumers during and after the pandemic, the opportunity for new stores to directly cater to these new groups of shoppers is immense.
And it’s not just about the rise of physical retail, but the stories that retailers are able to tell through their offline channels. Retailers are actively focused on ways to eliminate friction for shoppers, arm store employees with more insights and tools and create experiences that forge lasting bonds with shoppers. We heard from Wayfair, Build-A-Bear Workshop, Michaels and Studs, who all referenced that differentiating experiences are driving loyalty and fostering long-term connections with consumers. Stores are an essential part of building and retaining brand equity with consumers.
The other key theme centers around none other than the consumer. The retail industry feels more customer centric than ever before, especially as we get further away from the pandemic. Retailers and brands recognize that today, the shopper is in the driver’s seat, and many initiatives and innovations center around providing the consumer with more power and knowledge. This is why we are hearing more about "micro-merchandising". Retailers need and can enhance their relevancy by understanding the unique demographics/psychographic differences and preferences of their individual locations.
Executives at McDonald’s provided more insight into the success of June 2023's immensely popular birthday celebration for Grimace, including the Grimace Shake; they built the concept around the idea that many consumers celebrate a birthday at McDonald’s restaurants, but from there they let consumers drive the conversation around the promotion on social media.
We heard from many that word of mouth marketing is truly the key to success in retail today, and empowering consumers to share their thoughts and affinities with others in person or through social media platforms is driving engagement and adoption. Through the lens of foot traffic, we may see more consumers head to stores after hearing about them from others in their network. Marketing departments no longer consist of teams within an organization, but incorporate consumers as well.
Overall, we felt a lot of positivity from the industry about where we’re headed in the near term. As we see the slow rebound of the discretionary side of retail, new stores and innovations in the coming year and a consumer that still remains resilient despite many economic headwinds, the best might be ahead for the industry.
Americans have a love affair with stuff, and one of the hallmarks of this is the enduring strength of self-storage units. Public Storage takes the lead in overall visits, with Extra Space Storage not far behind. Looking at the Public Storage visits data, we see a clear spike in visits near the end of the month. This is due be due to housing transitions that also tend to occur with this pattern, as people prepare to move out at month’s end or conversely to pick up items for move-in at the beginning of a month.
Compared to last year, visits are generally up across most of these chains (which is partly the result of the industry consolidation trend we examined last year). The highest variance is seen with Prime Storage, a company largely based on the East Coast, but with a presence in the Midwest as well. StorageMart bought Manhattan Mini Storage in 2021 and has over 250 locations now.
In just a few months, we will be coming on the 5-year anniversary of COVID-19. During that time, we hunkered down, bought tons of athleisure, and stared at our forlorn office clothing sitting unworn in our closets. Fast forward a few years to present day and much like bootcut jeans are back in style, the pendulum is starting to veer back towards a more tailored style. This time around, the suits may not be as constricting, but there is certainly more structure to fall’s fashion than the cozy comfy sweatpants and leggings that the whole world came to embrace upon working from home. Among locations that are not multi-story or in enclosed malls, we see that Ann Taylor increased traffic to its locations in March, June, and August compared to last year, and that Polo Ralph Lauren has also seen increases in the past few months. This particular grouping of brands all has at least 30 or more locations each tracked by Placer and tend to be ubiquitous at many malls or as standalone boutiques. A recent visit to Banana Republic indicated a merchandising assortment that appeared to be more than 50% office wear in the women’s section, with blazers and tailored pants, silky shirts, and dresses ready to be accessorized with heels and some statement jewelry.
However, we are seeing even larger increases in year-over-year traffic at some of the more specialized/high-end brands, particularly in women’s contemporary that offer sharp-looking items that look just as polished at the boardroom or the PTA meeting, like the blazers at Veronica Beard or the “Effortless Pant” from Aritzia that is a smash hit on social media. The majority of this next grouping of brands got their start at department stores or specialty retailers, but with increased success, many are launching their own brick-and-mortar boutiques. Clearly, having a holy grail item that is on the fashion editors’ favorites list gives a boost to store traffic. One of the trends we are seeing is the continuation of the love for comfort everyone adopted during Covid mixed with a slightly more structured but still understated minimalist but luxe aesthetic, like COS. Theory, a wardrobe staple with its neutral color palette and streamlined silhouettes, has been generating positive year-over-year traffic during the back-to-school and fall season. Vince, also featuring rather understated and neutral basics, also saw its traffic lift for the fall season. Eileen Fisher is another interesting brand. Once regarded as clothing adapted to your mom’s generation, Gen Z is also starting to embrace it for its softness and sustainability, and it is one of the more popular brands to buy secondhand. In April of this year, Guess and WHP Global completed the acquisition of rag & bone, which has long been hailed for their on-trend jeans and boots. Time will tell what direction they will take the brand, or if they will stick with its tried-and-true New York roots.
Another brand to keep an eye on that we’re already familiar with from prestige department stores like Nordstrom, Bloomingdale’s, and Saks Fifth Avenue is L’Agence. This brand goes seamlessly from day to night with classics like tweed blazers, satiny tank tops, and perfectly-fitting jeans. They’ve now expanded to more stand-alone stores, including Southern California shopping meccas like Malibu and Beverly Hills. While the Malibu one just opened in late fall 2023, its traffic has been growing steadily upwards, even overtaking that of the Beverly Hills outpost of late.
One interesting thing to note is that the Malibu location attracts a higher proportion of its audience during the morning hours, whereas the Beverly Hills location gets the evening crowd. This information would be useful for staffing purposes or for knowing when to hold events.
The pandemic and economic headwinds that marked the past few years presented the multi-billion dollar hotel industry with significant challenges. But five years later, the industry is rallying – and some hotel segments are showing significant growth.
This white paper delves into location analytics across six major hotel categories – Luxury Hotels, Upper Upscale Hotels, Upscale Hotels, Upper Midscale Hotels, Midscale Hotels, and Economy Hotels – to explore the current state of the American hospitality market. The report examines changes in guest behavior, personas, and characteristics and looks at factors driving current visitation trends.
Overall, visits to hotels were 4.3% lower in Q2 2024 than in Q2 2019 (pre-pandemic). But this metric only tells part of the story. A deeper dive into the data shows that each hotel tier has been on a more nuanced recovery trajectory.
Economy chains – those offering the most basic accommodations at the lowest prices – saw visits down 24.6% in Q2 2024 compared to pre-pandemic – likely due in part to hotel closures that have plagued the tier in recent years. Though these chains were initially less impacted by the pandemic, they were dealt a significant blow by inflation – and have seen visits decline over the past three years. As hotels that cater to the most price-sensitive guests, these chains are particularly vulnerable to rising costs, and the first to suffer when consumer confidence takes a hit.
Luxury Hotels, on the other hand, have seen accelerated visit growth over the past year – and have succeeded in closing their pre-pandemic visit gap. Upscale chains, too, saw Q2 2024 visits on par with Q2 2019 levels. As tiers that serve wealthier guests with more disposable income, Luxury and Upscale Hotels are continuing to thrive in the face of headwinds.
But it is the Upper Midscale level – a tier that includes brands like Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Fairfield by Marriott, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Hampton by Hilton – that has experienced the most robust visit growth compared to pre-pandemic. In Q2 2024, Upper Midscale Hotels drew 3.5% more visits than in Q2 2019. And during last year’s peak season (Q3 2023), Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest visit boost of any analyzed tier.
As mid-range hotels that still offer a broad range of amenities, Upper Midscale chains strike a balance between indulgence and affordability. And perhaps unsurprisingly, hotel operators have been investing in this tier: In Q4 2023, Upper Midscale Hotels had the highest project count of any tier in the U.S. hotel construction and renovation pipeline.
The shift in favor of Upper Midscale Hotels and away from Economy chains is also evident when analyzing changes in relative visit share among the six hotel categories.
Upper Midscale hotels have always been major players: In H1 2019 they drew 28.7% of overall hotel visits – the most of any tier. But by H1 2024, their share of visits increased to 31.2%. Upscale Hotels – the second-largest tier – also saw their visit share increase, from 24.8% to 26.1%.
Meanwhile, Economy, Midscale, and Upper Upscale Hotels saw drops in visit share – with Economy chains, unsurprisingly, seeing the biggest decline. Luxury Hotels, for their parts, held firmly onto their piece of the pie, drawing 2.8% of visits in H1 2024.
Who are the visitors fueling the Upper Midscale visit revival? This next section explores shifts in visitor demographics to four Upper Midscale chains that are outperforming pre-pandemic visit levels: Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, Fairfield by Marriott, and Hampton by Hilton.
Analyzing the captured markets* of the four chains with demographics from STI: Popstats (2023) shows variance in the relative affluence of their visitor bases.
Fairfield by Marriott drew visitors from areas with a median household income (HHI) of $84.0K in H1 2024, well above the nationwide average of $76.1K. Hampton by Hilton and Trademark Collection by Wyndham, for their parts, drew guests from areas with respective HHIs of $79.6K and $78.5K – just above the nationwide average. Meanwhile, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts drew visitors from areas below the nationwide average.
But all four brands saw increases in the median HHIs of their captured markets over the past five years. This provides a further indication that it is wealthier consumers – those who have had to cut back less in the face of inflation – who are driving hotel recovery in 2024.
(*A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice.)
Much of the Upper Midscale visit growth is being driven by chain expansion. But in some areas of the country, the average number of visits to individual hotel locations is also on the rise – highlighting especially robust growth potential.
Analyzing visits to existing Upper Midscale chains in four metropolitan areas with booming tourism industries – Salt Lake City, UT, Palm Bay, FL, San Diego, CA, and Richmond, VA – shows that these markets feature robust untapped demand.
Utah, for example, has emerged as a tourist hotspot in recent years – with millions of visitors flocking each year to local destinations like Salt Lake City to see the sights and take in the great outdoors. And Upper Midscale hotels in the region are reaping the benefits. In H1 2024, the overall number of visits to Upper Midscale chains in Salt Lake City was 69.4% higher than in H1 2019. Though some of this increase can be attributed to local chain expansion, the average number of visits to each individual Upper Midscale location in the area also rose by 12.5% over the same period.
Palm Bay, FL (the Space Coast) – another tourist favorite – is experiencing a similar trend. Between H1 2019 and H1 2024, overall visits to local Upper Midscale hotel chains grew by 36.4% – while the average number of visits per location increased a substantial 16.9%. Given this strong demand, it may come as no surprise that the area is undergoing a hotel construction boom. Upper Midscale hotels in other areas with flourishing tourism sectors, like San Diego, CA and Richmond, VA, are seeing similar trends, with increases in both overall visits and and in the average number of visits per location.
Though Economy chains have underperformed versus other categories in recent years, the tier does feature some bright spots. Some extended-stay brands in the Economy tier – hotels with perks and amenities that cater to the needs of longer-stay travelers – are succeeding despite category headwinds.
Choice Hotels’ portfolio, for example, includes WoodSpring Suites, an Economy chain offering affordable extended-stay accommodations in 35 states. In H1 2024, the chain drew 7.7% more visits than in the first half of 2019 – even as the wider Economy sector continued to languish. InTown Suites, another Economy extended stay chain, saw visits increase by 8.9% over the same period.
And location intelligence shows that the success of these two chains is likely being driven, in part, by their growing appeal to young, well-educated professionals. In H1 2019, households belonging to Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Young Professionals” segment made up 9.6% of WoodSpring Suites’ captured market. But by H1 2024, the share of this group jumped dramatically to 13.3%. At the same time, InTown Suites saw its share of Young Professionals increase from 12.0% to 13.4%.
Whether due to an affinity for prolonged “workcations” (so-called “bleisure” excursions) or an embrace of super-commuting, younger guests have emerged as key drivers of growth for the extended stay segment. And by offering low–cost accommodations that meet the needs of these travelers, Economy chains can continue to grow their share of the pie.
The hospitality industry recovery continues – led by Upper Midscale Hotels, which offer elevated experiences that don’t break the bank. But today’s market has room for other tiers as well. By keeping abreast of local visitation patterns and changing consumer profiles, hotels across chain scales can personalize the visitor experience and drive customer satisfaction.
The past few years have provided the tourism sector with a multitude of headwinds, from pandemic-induced lockdowns to persistent inflation and a rise in extreme weather events. But despite these challenges, people are more excited than ever to travel – more than half of respondents to a recent survey are planning on increasing their travel budgets in the coming months.
And while revenge travel to overseas destinations is still very much alive and well, the often high costs associated with traveling abroad are shaping the way people choose to travel. Domestic travel and tourism are seeing significant growth as more affordable alternatives.
This white paper takes a closer look at two of the most popular domestic tourism destinations in the country – New York City and Los Angeles. Over the past year, both cities have continued to be leading tourism hotspots, offering a wealth of attractions for visitors. What does tourism to these two cities look like in 2024, and what has changed since before the pandemic? How have inflation and rising airfare prices affected the demographics and psychographics of visitors to these major hubs?
Analyzing the distribution of domestic tourists across CBSAs nationwide from May 2023 to April 2024 reveals New York and Los Angeles to be two of the nation’s most popular destinations. (Tourists include overnight visitors staying in a given CBSA for up to 31 days).
The New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro area drew the largest share of domestic tourists of any CBSA during the analyzed period (2.7%), followed closely by the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA CBSA (2.5%). Other domestic tourism hotspots included Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL (tied for second place with 2.5% of visitors), Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (1.9%), Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV (1.8%), Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL (1.8%), and Chicago-Naperville, Elgin, IL-IN-WI (1.6%).
The Big Apple. The City That Never Sleeps. Empire City. Whatever it’s called, New York City remains one of the most well-known tourist destinations in the world. And for many Americans, New York is the perfect place for an extended weekend getaway – or for a multi-day excursion to see the sights.
But where do these NYC-bound vacationers come from? Diving into the data on the origin of visitors making medium-length trips to New York City (three to seven nights) reveals that increasingly, these domestic tourists are coming from nearby metro areas.
Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, for example, the number of tourists visiting New York City from the Philadelphia metro area increased by 19.2%.
The number of tourists coming from the Boston and Washington, D.C metro areas, and from the New York CBSA itself (New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA) also increased over the same period.
Meanwhile, further-away CBSAs like San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA, Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL fed fewer tourists to NYC in 2023-2024 than they did pre-pandemic. It seems that residents of these more distant metro areas are opting for vacation destinations closer to home to avoid the high costs of air travel.
Diving even deeper into the characteristics of visitors taking medium-length trips to New York City reveals another demographic shift: Tourists staying between three and seven nights in the Big Apple are skewing younger.
Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, the share of visitors to New York City from areas with median ages under 30 grew from 2.1% to 4.5%. Meanwhile, the share of visitors from areas with median ages between 31 and 40 increased from 34.3% to 37.7%.
The impact of this trend is already being felt in the Big Apple, with The Broadway League reporting that the average age of audiences to its shows during the 2022- 2023 season was the youngest it had been in 20 seasons.
The shift towards younger tourists can also be seen when examining the psychographic makeup of visitors to popular attractions in New York City. Analyzing the captured markets of major NYC landmarks with data from Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive dataset reveals an increase in households belonging to the “Educated Urbanites” segment between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024.
These well-educated, young singles are increasingly visiting iconic NYC venues such as the Whitney Museum of American Art, The Metropolitan Museum of Art, The American Museum of Natural History, and the Statue of Liberty. This shift highlights the growing popularity of these attractions among young, educated singles, reflecting a broader trend of increased domestic tourism among this demographic.
New York City’s tourism sector is adapting to meet the changing needs of travelers, fueled increasingly by younger visitors who may be unable to take a costly international vacation. How have travel patterns to Los Angeles changed in response to increasing travel costs?
While New York City is the East Coast’s tourism hotspot, Los Angeles takes center stage on the West Coast. And as overseas travel has become increasingly out of reach for Americans with less discretionary income, the share of domestic tourists originating from areas with lower HHIs has risen.
Before the pandemic, 57.6% of visitors to LA came from affluent areas with median household incomes (HHIs) of over $90K/year. But by 2023-2024, this share decreased to 50.7%. Over the same period, the share of visitors from areas with median HHIs between $41K and $60K increased from 9.7% to 12.5%, while the share of visitors from areas with HHIs between $61K and $90K rose from 32.1% to 35.8%.
Diving into the psychographic makeup of visitors to popular Los Angeles attractions – Universal Studios Hollywood, Disneyland California, the Santa Monica Pier, and Griffith Observatory – also reflects the above-mentioned shift in HHI. The captured markets of these attractions had higher shares of middle-income households belonging to the “Family Union” psychographic segment in 2023-2024 than in 2018-2019.
Experian: Mosaic defines this segment as “middle income, middle-aged families living in homes supported by solid blue-collar occupations.” Pre-pandemic, 16.0% of visitors to Universal Studios Hollywood came from trade areas with high shares of “Family Union” households. This number jumped to 18.8% over the past year. A similar trend occurred at Disneyland, Santa Monica Pier, and Griffith Observatory.
And like in New York City, growing numbers of visitors to Los Angeles appear to be coming from nearby areas. Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, the share of in-state visitors to major Los Angeles attractions increased substantially – as people likely sought to cut costs by keeping things local.
Pre-pandemic, for example, 68.9% of visitors to Universal Studios Hollywood came from within California – a share that increased to 72.0% over the past year. Similarly, 59.7% of Griffith Observatory visitors in 2018-2019 came from within the state – and by 2023-2024, that number grew to 64.7%.
Even when times are tight, people love to travel – and New York and Los Angeles are two of their favorite destinations. With prices for airfare, hotels, and dining out increasing across the board, younger and more price-conscious households are adapting, choosing to visit nearby cities and enjoy attractions closer to home. And as the tourism industry continues its recovery, understanding emerging visitation trends can help stakeholders meet travelers where they are.
The positive retail momentum observed in Q1 2024 continued into Q2 – as stabilizing prices and a strong job market fostered cautious optimism among consumers. Year-over-year (YoY) retail foot traffic remained elevated throughout the quarter, with June in particular seeing significant weekly visit boosts ranging from 4.7% to 8.5%.
The robustness of the retail sector in Q2 was also highlighted by positive visit growth during the quarter’s special calendar occasions, including Mother’s Day (the week of May 6th) and Memorial Day (the week of May 27th). And though consumer spending may moderate as the year wears on, retail’s strong Q2 showing offers plenty of room for optimism ahead of back-to-school sales and other summer milestones.
On a quarterly basis, overall retail visits rose 4.2% in Q2. And diving into specific categories shows that value continued to reign supreme, with discount and dollar stores seeing the most robust YoY visit growth (11.2%) of any analyzed category.
Other essential goods purveyors, such as grocery store chains (7.6%) and superstores (4.6%), also outperformed the overall retail baseline. And fitness – a category deemed essential by many health-conscious consumers – outpaced overall retail with a substantial 6.0% YoY foot traffic increase.
The decidedly more discretionary home improvement industry performed less well than overall retail in Q2 – but in another sign of consumer resilience, it too experienced a YoY visit uptick. And overall restaurant foot traffic increased 2.6% YoY.
Discount and dollar stores enjoyed a strong Q2 2024, maintaining YoY visit growth above 10.0% for six out of the quarter’s 13 weeks. Only during the week of April 1st did the category see a temporary decline, likely the result of an Easter calendar shift. (The week of April 1st 2024 is being compared to the week of April 3rd, 2023, which included the run-up to Easter)
Some of this growth can be attributed to the continued expansion of segment leaders like Dollar General. But the category has also been bolstered by the emphasis consumers continue to place on value in the face of still-high prices and economic uncertainty.
Dollar General, which has been expanding both its store count and its grocery offerings, saw YoY visits increase between 9.1% and 15.9% throughout the quarter. Affordable-indulgence-oriented Five Below, which has also been adding locations at a brisk clip, saw YoY visits increase between 4.9% and 18.8%.
And though Dollar Tree has taken steps to rightsize its Family Dollar brand, the company’s eponymous banner – which caters to middle-income consumers in suburban areas – continued to grow both its store count and its visits in Q2.
Grocery store chains also performed well in Q2 2024 – experiencing strongly positive foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. Though the sector continues to face its share of challenges, stabilizing food-at-home prices and improvements in employee retention and supply chain management have helped propel the industry forward.
Diving into the performance of specific chains shows that within the grocery segment, too, price was paramount in Q2 2024 – with limited-assortment value grocery stores like Aldi and Trader Joe’s leading the way.
Traditional chains H-E-B and Food Lion (owned by Ahold Delhaize) – both of which are known for relatively low prices – outperformed the wider grocery sector with respective YoY foot traffic boosts of 11.4% and 8.7%. But ShopRite, Safeway (owned by Albertsons), Kroger, and Albertsons also drew more visits in Q2 2024 than in the equivalent period of last year.
Fitness has proven to be relatively inflation-proof in recent years – thriving even in the face of reduced discretionary spending and consumer cutbacks. Indeed, rising prices may have actually helped boost gym attendance, as people sought to squeeze the most value out of their monthly fees and replace pricy outings with already-paid-for gym excursions.
And despite lapping a remarkably strong 2023, visits to gyms nationwide remained elevated YoY in Q2 2024.
Diving into the data for some of the nation’s leading gyms shows that today’s fitness market has plenty of room at the top. Planet Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, Life Time Fitness, Orangetheory Fitness, and LA Fitness all experienced YoY visit growth in Q2 2024 – reflecting consumers’ enduring interest in all things wellness-related.
But it was EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness – two value gyms that have been pursuing aggressive expansion strategies – that really hit it out of the park, with respective YoY foot traffic increases of 23.4% and 21.4%.
The week of April 1st saw a decline in YoY visits to superstores – likely attributable to the Easter calendar shift noted above. But the category quickly rallied, and with back-to-school shopping and major superstore sales events coming up this July, the category appears poised to enjoy continued success throughout the summer.
Within the superstore category, wholesale clubs continued to stand out – with Costco Wholesale, Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club enjoying YoY foot traffic growth ranging from 12.0% to 7.4%. But Target and Walmart also impressed with 4.6% and 4.0% YoY visit increases.
Inflation, elevated interest rates, and a sluggish real estate market have created a perfect storm for the home improvement industry, with spending on renovations in decline. The accelerated return to office has likely also taken its toll on the category, as people spend more time outside the home and have less availability to immerse themselves in DIY projects.
But despite these challenges, weekly YoY foot traffic to home improvement and furnishing chains remained elevated throughout much of the Q2 – with June and April seeing mostly positive YoY visit growth, and May hovering just below 2023 levels. This (modest) visit growth may be driven by consumers loading up on supplies for necessary home repairs, or by shoppers seeking materials for smaller projects. And given the importance of Q2 for the home improvement sector, this largely positive snapshot may offer some promise of good things to come.
Some chains within the home improvement category continued to perform especially well in Q2 2024 – with rapidly expanding, budget-oriented Harbor Freight Tools leading the pack. But Ace Hardware, Menards, The Home Depot, and Lowe’s also saw foot traffic increases in Q2, showcasing the category’s resilience in the face of headwinds.
Restaurants – including full-service restaurants (FSR), quick-service restaurants (QSR), fast-casual chains, and coffee chains – lagged behind grocery stores and other essential goods retailers in Q2 2024, as price-sensitive consumers prioritized needs over wants and ate at home more often.
Still, YoY restaurant foot traffic remained up throughout most of the quarter. And impressively, the sector saw a YoY visit uptick during the week of Mother’s Day (the week of May 6th, 2024, compared to the week of May 8th, 2023) – an important milestone for FSR.
The restaurant industry’s YoY visit growth was felt across segments – though fast-casual and coffee chains experienced the biggest visit boosts. Like in Q1 2024, fast-casual restaurants hit the sweet spot between indulgence and affordability, outpacing QSR in the wake of fast food price hikes. And building on the positive YoY trendline that began to emerge last quarter, full-service restaurants finished Q2 2024 with a 1.4% YoY visit uptick.
Chain expansion was the name of the restaurant game in Q2 2024, with several chains that have been growing their footprints outperforming segment averages – including CAVA, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Ziggi’s Coffee, California-based Philz Coffee, Raising Cane’s, Whataburger, and First Watch. Chili’s Grill and Bar also outpaced the full-service category average, aided by the revamping of its “3 for Me” menu.
Retailers and restaurants in Q2 2024 continued to face plenty of challenges, from inflation to rising labor costs and volatile consumer confidence. But foot traffic trends across industries – including both essential goods purveyors like grocery stores and more discretionary categories like home improvement and restaurants – suggest plenty of room for cautious optimism as 2024 wears on.
