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After a strong Q4 2025 that delivered record single-day sales and one of the largest digital acquisition events in McDonald's history, Q1 2026 posed a harder test. Severe weather, pressure on lower-income consumers, and rising gas prices all weighed on the QSR category. So how did McDonald’s perform in Q1? We dove into the data to find out.
Q1 2026 visits to McDonald’s rose 0.6% year over year (YoY), with average visits per location essentially flat at 0.1%. Given Winter Storm Fern’s outsized impact on January traffic and a consumer environment that grew more selective as the quarter progressed, finishing Q1 in positive territory is a meaningful result.
That resilience reflects momentum built in Q4 2025, when McDonald’s delivered across all three of the pillars the company has identified as central to the brand's recovery: value, marketing, and menu. The September 2025 relaunch of Extra Value Meals helped reestablish McDonald’s value positioning, while MONOPOLY – returning to U.S. restaurants for the first time in nearly a decade – became one of the brand’s largest digital customer acquisition events ever. Meanwhile, the December 2025 Grinch Meal, featuring Dill Pickle McShaker Fries and collectible holiday socks, drove the highest single sales day in company history.
McDonald’s carried that strategy into Q1, bringing back the Shamrock Shake in February and launching the Big Arch Burger nationally in March. But in a quarter shaped by weather disruption and more cautious consumer spending, these initiatives generated more muted traffic responses than Q4’s record-setting activations.
The chart below illustrates McDonald’s uneven performance throughout the quarter. January same-store visits fell 1.3% YoY, due in part to Winter Storm Fern, which swept across more than 30 states late in the month, disrupting operations and driving temporary restaurant closures. February rebounded to +3.8% YoY, supported by pent-up demand and the return of the Shamrock Shake, which delivered a modest but discernable lift during its launch week. March, however, slipped back to -1.2% – reflecting the Big Arch Burger's more muted traffic response and possibly also the tightening of consumer purse strings in the face of rising gas prices.
But despite this consumer caution, the response to McDonald's latest pop-culture collab shows that even in a more demanding environment, the right promotion can still cut through.
On March 31 – the launch date of McDonald's collaboration with Netflix's Oscar-winning animated film KPop Demon Hunters – Tuesday visits reached 11.1% above the year-to-date Tuesday average, the highest single Tuesday reading of the entire first quarter. The promotion featured two dueling adult meals inspired by the film's rival groups, HUNTR/X and the Saja Boys, along with limited-time Korean-inspired items like Ramyeon McShaker Fries. And traffic stayed elevated in the days that followed, contributing to the chain's busiest week of the year so far.
Q1 data shows that McDonald’s can still drive traffic at scale, even in a softer environment. But success increasingly depends on executing consistently across value, marketing, and menu – while also delivering the kind of culturally relevant moments that give consumers a compelling reason to visit. How will the chain perform in Q2 as it rolls out its revamped McValue menu?
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Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Starbucks and Dutch Bros may both operate in the coffee space, but they are pursuing distinct strategies that reflect their different stages of growth. Starbucks, the legacy leader, is focused on revitalizing its established brand. Dutch Bros, the newer, fast-growing entrant, is expanding its footprint and building brand awareness. And AI-powered location analytics suggests that both approaches appear to be working.
Dutch Bros is driving traffic through aggressive expansion, a drive-thru–focused model, and ongoing menu innovation. Meanwhile, Starbucks’ “Back to Starbucks” plan centers on closing underperforming stores, re-emphasizing the coffeehouse experience, and simplifying operations. Both chains may also be benefiting from the current consumer headwinds driving demand for affordable treats, with year-over-year (YoY) same-store visits up every month of the past six months.
In September 2024, Starbucks' then-new CEO Brian Niccol announced the Back to Starbucks turnaround strategy, focusing on reestablishing the brand's core identity as a coffee-first, community-centered brand, centered on high-quality coffee, skilled baristas, and a welcoming in-store experience. It also prioritizes improving service speed and consistency, simplifying operations, and strengthening the overall customer experience.
In September 2024, shortly after becoming CEO, Brian Niccol introduced the company's "Back to Starbucks" turnaround strategy, aimed at restoring the brand’s identity as a coffee-first, community-centered experience built on quality coffee, skilled baristas, and welcoming stores. The plan also emphasizes improving speed and consistency, simplifying operations, and enhancing the overall customer experience.
Traffic data reveals that the restructuring plan is already bearing fruit. Over the past two full quarters (Q4 2025 and Q1 2026) the company's overall traffic and average visits per venue increased 4.9% to 5.9% compared to the previous year – a particularly strong performance given broader consumer headwinds. If sustained, this momentum could signal a meaningful and durable return to growth for the brand.
Concurrently, Dutch Bros’ rapid expansion is translating into strong top-line traffic growth, with overall visits rising at a double-digit pace throughout 2025 and into early 2026. Quarterly gains ranged from 12.3% to 17.9% YoY as the brand entered new markets and scaled its footprint.
At the same time, average visits per location have remained relatively stable, suggesting that new store openings are not significantly cannibalizing existing units. This combination of robust overall traffic growth and steady per-location performance points to a healthy expansion strategy, where footprint growth is driving incremental demand rather than diluting it.
As both brands continue to execute on their respective strategies, early traffic trends suggest that there is no single path to growth in today’s coffee space. Starbucks’ operational reset and Dutch Bros’ expansion-led model are each resonating with consumers, albeit in different ways. The key question going forward will be whether these gains can be sustained as macro pressures persist and competition intensifies.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai.anchor
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In a macroeconomic environment that continues to challenge dining chains, Shake Shack’s performance offers a clear signal of what consumers prioritize in 2026 – familiarity, convenience, and affordable indulgences.
Over the past several years, Shake Shack has expanded its footprint while maintaining solid performance at existing locations. In Q4 2025, total revenue rose nearly 22% year over year, while same-store sales increased 2.1%, driven primarily by pricing alongside a modest (+0.5%) lift in traffic – marking the brand’s 20th consecutive quarter of positive comparable growth. Restaurant-level margins also improved, pointing to stronger execution at the unit level.
And that momentum carried into Q1 2026. Overall visits rose 19.9% YoY, with average visits per location increasing in every month except January, when severe weather – including Winter Storm Fern – likely contributed to a slight 0.4% YoY dip.
A key driver of this consistency is Shake Shack’s alignment with evolving consumer routines. Loyalty has been rising, with repeat visitors accounting for an increasing share of traffic. At the same time, shorter weekday visits are becoming more common, suggesting that more customers are incorporating the brand into their weekly rhythms – whether for a quick lunch or an afternoon treat. And Shake Shack’s newly announced loyalty platform is likely to reinforce this behavior, further embedding the brand into day-to-day routines.
Menu innovation and popular limited-time offers also continue to play a major role in Shake Shack’s growth. Last summer, the nationwide launch of the Dubai Chocolate Pistachio Shake generated significant buzz. And more recently, the chain’s popular Valentine’s Day “True Love Shake” BOGO delivered its busiest day of the year – with visits jumping 14.8% above the typical Saturday baseline.
Shake Shack’s expansion strategy and visitation patterns point to a broader truth about dining in 2026: Success increasingly hinges on fitting seamlessly into everyday life while still delivering moments of excitement. As macroeconomic pressures persist, the brands that can balance routine convenience with craveable, culturally relevant offerings are likely to lead the next phase of growth.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Quick-service restaurants have faced significant headwinds, even as value offerings and limited-time promotions have helped stabilize traffic across the segment. Still, the largest restaurant groups are finding ways to outperform.
The latest visit data shows Yum! Brands and Restaurant Brands International (RBI) pulling ahead of the category – with growth in both cases driven by their leading brands and supported by the strength of their fast-casual concepts.
In Q1 2026, traffic to QSRs rose just 0.1% year over year (YoY), as increasingly cautious consumers pulled back on dining out. Against this backdrop, Yum! Brands’ 2.1% increase in overall portfolio traffic and 3.0% rise in average visits per location represent meaningful outperformance. While RBI lagged slightly in overall traffic, it still modestly outpaced the segment average in per-location traffic.
Diving into brand-level data, Taco Bell – which accounted for nearly three quarters of total Yum! visits in Q1 2026 – remained the company’s clear growth engine. A combination of strategic value pricing, ongoing menu innovation, and a strong digital loyalty program continued to drive same-store traffic growth and broaden the brand’s appeal across income cohorts – including higher-income consumers, families, and younger diners alike.
The Habit Burger Grill, Yum!’s fast-casual concept, also performed well in Q1, with same-store visits up in the mid- to high-single digits throughout the quarter. KFC, meanwhile, in the midst of a turnaround, saw mixed same-store visit trends – as did Pizza Hut, currently the subject of a strategic review.
On the RBI side, QSR leader Burger King continued to lead performance. After reporting a 2.6% same-store sales increase in Q4 2025, the chain delivered a 1.4% YoY rise in overall traffic in Q1 2026, with same-store visits increasing in both February and March. This momentum likely reflects ongoing execution of RBI’s “Reclaim the Flame” strategy, alongside ongoing menu innovation – including the January launch of the Ultimate Steakhouse Whopper, which was met with strong consumer response.
Fast-casual Firehouse Subs, which similarly posted a 2.4% increase in same-store sales in Q4 2025, also remained a bright spot in Q1, with positive same-store visit growth in January and February, and March performance roughly in line with the prior year.
By contrast, Tim Hortons continued to see traffic softness in the U.S., though ongoing expansion plans suggest confidence in its long-term opportunity. And Popeyes faced continued pressure, with RBI actively working to reposition the brand.
Both Yum! and RBI are successfully navigating a challenging QSR environment, driven by the strength of their flagship brands, solid performance in fast-casual concepts, and ongoing investments to stabilize underperforming chains. Will the companies be able to sustain this momentum in the coming months?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
After the rollercoaster performance of the retail industry in 2025, the first quarter of 2026 would serve as a barometer for consumer sentiment, resilience and industry stability. In actuality, this past quarter has once again provided obstacles, including winter weather, geo political conflict and retail bankruptcies. However, even for discretionary categories, the outlook still remains positive amidst the uncertainty.
Foot traffic to major brick-and-mortar retail chains were up 1.5% year-over-year Q1 2026. And while some of that growth is due to somewhat easy comparisons, with discretionary industries stagnating over the past few years – especially in the first quarter of last year – the slight increase also suggests that some discretionary categories are beginning to regain traction. And while non-discretionary industries continue to outperform their general merchandise counterparts, there is still plenty to celebrate over the last three months.
The visitation trends this past quarter underscore that consumer resilience remains strong, as consumerism doesn’t take a backseat to economic uncertainty. All of the macro-economic trends point otherwise, with unemployment and layoffs rising, debt accumulating and the housing market cooling, but consumers are still shopping. Retail bifurcation continues, with value based offerings still driving much of the growth, but consumers in the U.S. can’t seem to talk themselves out of being influenced to buy.
Digging into some of the top trends and performances of the quarter, it is easier to see where consumers are putting their attention, and in turn how those categories highlight the shifts in consumer behavior.
One of the largest overall stories of the quarter was the intense winter weather that span across the majority of the country. Winter Storm Fern, which hit the eastern half of the U.S. during the last week of January, had a material impact on foot traffic across categories, in particular non-essential store trips. The week prior (January 19th) brought stock-ups and pre-emptive trips, while the following week brought temporarily shuttered stores and fewer trips in many states. While winter weather has always created disruptions for shoppers, this year felt particularly impactful with more store closures than in previous years.
In times of uncertainty, consumers crave hobbies and experiences that are celebratory and help them to feel good. Participating in or picking-up a new hobby gives consumers some agency and also allows them to connect to others in their communities or through social media. The power of the hobby began to show up on foot traffic in 2025, and the trend has only accelerated faster in the first quarter.
Michaels, Paper Source and Barnes & Noble have all grown traffic in the first quarter of this year, truly underscoring that there is still a place for discretionary spending with today’s consumer. These retailers have all succeeded in building a foundation for shoppers to see these visits as indispensable. This could be due in part to the experiences and services that these retailers offer alongside tangible products, such as stationary & invitations, author signings and readings, and framing service or classes, which help separate a visit from a simple transaction.
The consolidation of retail banners has also benefitted the major names in the hobby, gift and craft category, particularly in the case of Michaels. But, less competition in today’s retail industry doesn’t instantly signal success; these chains have had to define their reason to exist in a digital-first shopping world.
The home improvement category is another area that has reversed its 2025 trend in the first quarter. This category did benefit from favorable comparable periods, but its growth also reflects larger shifts amongst consumers.
Both Lowe’s & Home Depot posted growth in store visits in Q1 2026, a sign that traffic from professionals and do-it-yourself consumers are heading back into building and repair. This traffic increase is all the more impressive given the housing market's current uncertainty as sales slump amidst lower inventory and rising costs – which in some cases may push consumers to pull back on moving or upgrade plans.
It was anticipated that 2025 might bring about a replacement cycle for those who invested in their homes during the pandemic, whether through home improvement or decorating, but this prediction never fully materialized. Now, the positive traffic may indicate that some of that demand may have been delayed, shifting some of the consumption into 2026 as consumers are less bullish on the housing and job markets, and trying to improve what is currently in their possession.
Winter weather was also a factor in the growth for the major retailers, as consumers looked to prepare for storms in advance or outfit their homes with generators, snow removal equipment and other essentials. Looking at the week leading up to winter storm Fern, both major chains benefited from the increased stooking up.
Looking ahead to the second quarter, home improvement retail demand can be subject to volatility in the market. If geopolitical conflict continues and oil prices remain elevated, the cost of home materials could rise and cool the demand for the category once again.
One of the most watched categories as a barometer for discretionary demand has been apparel. It is a category that, in many ways, best exemplifies the current bifurcation of the retail industry based on consumer priorities. Value remains the north star of the category, while full-price chains in apparel, sporting goods and department stores struggle to find their place in the crowd. Even the luxury market has stalled over the last nine months, despite the resilience of higher-income households. Apparel continues to be the bellwether for demand.
Looking at the performance of the category in the first quarter, off-price was once again the winning sector, comping its strong performance last year. Even winter weather didn’t deter shoppers too much, as they looked to off-price chains for key items and winter gear. The frequency of visits to off-price retailers remains a key to their success; repeat visitation is higher for these chains, which helps to boost overall traffic.
Apparel chains and sporting goods retailers fared similarly, with slower traffic overall. Within these subcategories, shifting athleisure preference, value orientation and digital focus all play a role in the tepid performance. There are still some bright spots, with Gap Inc. and Victoria’s Secret improving their business.
A major headline early in the first quarter was the announced bankruptcy and restructuring of Saks Global. As part of the restructuring, the off-price based Saks Off Fifth banner has been shuttered as well as some full line Neiman Marcus and Saks Fifth Avenue locations.
The luxury market has not been immune to the shift in consumer behavior over the past year, and the first quarter of this year has shown a deceleration of traffic to luxury department stores, even despite the gains made last year from brands like Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom. The stall in traffic to this category reverses much of what happened in 2025, and it will be interesting to see if shoppers return in the coming months.
Beauty, despite some small setbacks in early 2025, continues its dominance as the category to watch for growth. The category began to rebound in the middle of last year, and traffic grew in the first quarter of 2026. Beauty has maintained its momentum through innovation, in-store experience and shifting consumer needs, as the category responds seamlessly to its shoppers.
Major chains like Ulta Beauty and Bath & Body Works led the charge in terms of performance, while smaller brands like Bluemercury faced slower traffic trends. Beauty has always been a category that thrives in economic uncertainty, and with the expansion of the store footprints over the last few years, beauty retailers have been ready for the increased attention.
As mentioned earlier, consumers still want to shop despite lower consumer sentiment, and the dopamine boost of a beauty retail visit can sustain shoppers who might otherwise be trying to limit their spend. Small indulgences are still top of mind for consumers, which certainly will continue to benefit beauty throughout the remainder of the year.
Finally, at the end of the first quarter, it was announced that digitally native footwear retailer, Allbirds, would sell for only $39 million, despite its prior valuation at $4 billion. Digitally native brands have been expanding store fleets once again, but Allbirds serves as a discretionary cautionary tale.
The footwear category has always been dominated by fashion trends; one day a brand is on fire, the next day it’s almost extinct. Allbirds followed a similar trend, with rapid retail expansion during the pre-pandemic period.
As has been the case, remaining relevant to audiences is still a challenge, even for buzz-worthy digitally native brands. Building lasting relationships with shoppers extends beyond being the product of the moment, and many of these brands are pivoting to focus on planting deeper roots.
Digitally native brands have a right to exist in discretionary retail. In many ways, they are responsible for much of the innovation that has come out of general merchandise categories over the past decade. But, there is still a lot of risk in the business of building new brands, and in the case of Allbirds, diversification that might be needed to keep shoppers coming back.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Traffic to brick and mortar retail chains remained essentially flat in March 2026 following a period of steady year-over-year (YoY) gains – although calendar shifts may account for some of the apparent slowdown.
Saturday is typically the busiest day for in-store shopping, and March 2026 had one fewer Saturday than March 2025, which likely weighed on overall foot traffic, as average daily visits on each weekday in March 2026 were all higher than the monthly average. At the same time, the increase in average visits per weekday on most days was smaller than the YoY monthly growth in January and February – suggesting that consumer caution may have also played a role in the March traffic trends. April data should bring more clarity as to how much of the slowdown was driven by a calendar shift versus emerging consumer caution.
Meanwhile, traffic to e-commerce distribution centers skyrocketed in March – with visits rising 16.2% compared to March 2025 – perhaps helped by a different calendar shift. The shift in Easter – from April 20 in 2025 to April 5 in 2026 – likely pulled some holiday shopping into late March, boosting activity.
On the manufacturing side, foot traffic to plants remained relatively flat in March 2026, rising just 0.7% YoY nationwide.
The March ISM Manufacturing PMI showed growth in new orders and production compared to February, while employment declined – pulling foot traffic trends in opposite directions. The muted visit growth suggests facilities are maintaining operational intensity even as headcounts shrink, pointing to manufacturing activity becoming less labor-dependent, with output continuing to drive facility usage despite subdued hiring.
March’s data suggests that underlying consumer and industrial activity remains resilient, with calendar dynamics distorting headline trends rather than signaling a true slowdown. Looking ahead, as calendar effects normalize, retail and logistics activity may better reflect this underlying strength, while manufacturing continues its shift toward higher output with leaner workforces.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The grocery industry has navigated unprecedented challenges in recent years – from pandemic-driven shifts in consumer behavior and supply chain disruptions to rising costs, labor shortages, and increased operational demands. In the face of these hurdles, the category has been pushed to innovate, adapting everything from product selections to shopping formats to meet changing consumer expectations.
But within the grocery industry, some segments resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. This white paper dives into the data to explore two segments that have been leading category-wide visit growth for some time: specialty and fresh format stores, which focus on produce, organic foods, and culturally specific items (think Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and H Mart, to name a few), and value grocery chains like Aldi, WinCo Foods, and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market. Location analytics show shoppers are increasingly drawn to these two grocery store types, a shift that has the potential to reshape the grocery landscape.
How did value and specialty grocery chains perform in Q3 2024 in comparison to traditional supermarkets like Kroger, Albertsons, and H-E-B? How does visitor behavior vary between the three grocery segments, and what differences can be observed in the demographic and psychographic make-ups of their trade areas? The report explores these questions and more below.
The grocery industry has performed well over the past few months, with steady weekly year-over-year (YoY) visit increases throughout Q3 2024. During the week of July 1st, the segment saw a 4.6% YoY foot traffic boost, likely driven by shoppers loading up on ingredients for Independence Day barbecues and picnics. And after tapering somewhat in early August, visits picked up again in September, with YoY increases ranging from 2.0% to 2.9% throughout the month. This positive growth is a good sign for the segment – which has experienced more than its fair share of challenges over the past few years.
Though the grocery category as a whole is thriving, a closer look at different segments within the industry reveals that some are seeing more significant growth than others.
Indeed, digging deeper into grocery visits throughout Q3 2024 reveals that much of the industry’s growth is being driven by specialty and fresh format stores and value grocery chains. The two segments offer markedly different shopping experiences: Specialty chains tend to emphasize harder-to-find ingredients and fresh produce – sometimes even at higher price points than traditional grocery stores – while value grocery stores focus on affordability. But both categories are experiencing outsize visit growth in 2024, highlighting consumers’ dual interest in both quality and value.
In July and August 2024, traditional supermarkets, specialty grocers, and value chains all experienced positive YoY visit growth. But while traditional grocery stores saw a 3.1% increase in July and just a 0.9% uptick in August, value and specialty chains saw YoY growth ranging from 4.7% to 7.7% during the two months. In September 2024, YoY visits to traditional grocery stores fell by 0.5%, while value and specialty chains saw 5.0% and 5.2% increases, respectively. For today’s consumer, it seems, savings are key – but specialty offerings also resonate strongly.
Today’s grocery shoppers are increasingly embracing specialty grocery options – and analyzing consumer driving habits to grocery stores shows that they are willing to go the extra mile to reach them.
Breaking down grocery visits by distance traveled reveals that just 18.5% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery chains came from less than one mile away in Q3 2024 – compared to 23.9% for traditional grocery stores and 23.2% for value chains. Similarly, 31.3% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery stores originated from one to three miles away, compared to 34.7% and 34.5% for the other analyzed segments.
On the flip side, some 26.4% of visits to specialty and fresh format stores were made by people traveling at least seven miles to do their shopping – compared to 22.7% and 21.4% for traditional and value chains, respectively. Specialty grocery operators can account for this difference, locating stores in areas accessible to geographically dispersed audiences eager to shop their unique offerings.
And a look at changes in visitor behavior at three key specialty chains – Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and Great Wall Supermarket – shows that even as these brands expand their footprints, customers are increasingly willing to travel the distance to visit them. Between 2019 and 2024, all three chains saw a marked increase in the share of visitors traveling over seven miles to shop their offerings. .
Asian grocery chain Great Wall Supermarket, a relatively small regional chain with some 22 locations across eight states, saw the most significant increase in visits from afar over the analyzed period. In Q3 2024, 32.3% of visits to the chain originated from seven or more miles away, up from 28.3% in Q3 2019. Ranked America’s Best Supermarket by Newsweek in 2024, the chain’s wide selection of everything from seafood to fresh produce has made it a hit among Asian food aficionados – and as the supermarket’s reputation grows, so does its draw among customers living further away from its venues.
Consumer favorite Trader Joe’s and organic grocery chain Sprouts Farmers Market also grew their shares of long-distance visits between 2019 and 2024 – no small feat for the two chains, given their expansion over the past several years.
This travel distance snapshot serves as a reminder of the unique role played by specialty grocery stores that offer their customers unique shopping experiences, premium or organic products, and culturally specific items. Shoppers will go out of their way to travel to these stores – and even as they expand and become more readily accessible, their growing popularity makes them ever-more attractive destinations for customers coming from further away.
While visitors to specialty grocery chains often travel long distances for unique offerings, cost-conscious consumers at value stores exhibit other behaviors that differentiate them from traditional and specialty grocery shoppers.
The rising cost of living has pushed the discount retail segment into overdrive – and value grocery chains are also benefiting. The category has flourished in recent years, with many bargain-oriented grocery chains adding new stores at a rapid clip to meet burgeoning consumer demand.
Like visitors to specialty grocery chains, value grocery shoppers demonstrate segment-specific behaviors that reflect their preferences and habits. And perhaps most strikingly, foot traffic data reveals that these shoppers tend to stay longer in-store than visitors to traditional and specialty grocery chains.
In Q3 2024, 26.5% of visits to value grocery chains lasted longer than 30 minutes, compared to 23.4% for traditional grocery chains and 23.7% for specialty and fresh format chains. This suggests that these stores attract shoppers who take their time and carefully consider price points, looking for the best value for their dollar – a need that the chains they frequent seem to be meeting.
Given the tremendous success of the value grocery space in recent years, it may come as no surprise that some traditional supermarkets are getting in on the action by opening or expanding discount banners of their own. How do such off-shoot banners impact these grocers’ reach?
Cult-favorite Texas grocery chain H-E-B opened the first branch of its value banner, Joe V’s Smart Shop, in 2010. The discount arm currently includes 11 stores – mainly in the Houston area – with several new stores opening, or in planning stages, in Dallas.
And foot traffic data shows that Joe V's attracts mission-driven shoppers who make less frequent but significantly longer trips than visitors to traditional grocery stores. In Q3 2024, the average visit duration at Joe V’s was 37.8 minutes, compared to just 26.8 minutes at H-E-B – a full 11 minute difference. At the same time, while 38.5% of Q3 visits to H-E-B were made by customers frequenting the chain, on average, at least four times a month, just 11.8% of visits to Joe V’s were made by visitors reaching that threshold.
Joe V’s is also more likely than H-E-B to attract parental households, with 36.8% of its captured market made up of households with children – significantly higher than H-E-B’s 32.0%.
Together, these data points paint a picture of the average Joe V’s shopper: cost-conscious, likely to have children, and inclined to carefully plan shopping trips to maximize savings and cut down on grocery runs. This suggests that they are mission-driven and focused on stocking up rather than running out to grab ingredients as the need arises.
Major grocery store operators often operate a variety of store types at different price points to appeal to as many shoppers as possible, and Hy-Vee is no exception. The regional grocery favorite launched a discount chain, Dollar Fresh, in 2018 and currently operates 25 stores under that banner, aiming to attract middle-class, cost-conscious shoppers.
Using Experian’s Mosaic dataset to analyze Dollar Fresh’s trade area reveals that the chain’s captured market features significantly higher shares of lower-middle-class family consumers than its potential one – highlighting its special draw for these shoppers. (A chain’s potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to population size, thus reflecting the overall makeup of the chain’s trade area. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base. Comparing a chain’s captured market to its potential one can serve as a helpful gauge of the brand’s success at attracting key audience segments.)
In Q3 2024, the “Pastoral Pride” family segment represented 11.4% of Dollar Fresh’s captured market, compared to just 5.3% of its potential market. This over-representation of lower-middle-class consumers from small towns in Dollar Fresh’s captured market indicates that the chain is especially effective at drawing customers that belong to this segment. Though Hy-Vee’s captured market also boasted a higher share of this demographic than its potential one in Q3, the difference was much smaller – and the chain’s overall reach among these consumers was more limited.
In contrast, Hy-Vee excels at attracting “Flourishing Families” – affluent, middle-aged families and couples – who made up 10.3% of the supermarket’s captured market in Q3 2024. Dollar Fresh’s captured market, on the other hand, featured a smaller share of this segment than its potential one – showing that the discount chain is of less interest to these consumers. So while Hy-Vee tends to appeal to higher-income families with more spending flexibility, value-conscious shoppers have been making their way to Dollar Fresh.
This audience segmentation analysis shows how value offerings help grocery chains attract wider audiences – and highlights the advantage of operating multiple store types to appeal to a broader range of shoppers.
People will always need access to a variety of fresh foods – ensuring that grocery stores and supermarkets continue to play a vital role in in the retail landscape. And while the category as a whole has continued to thrive even in today’s challenging environment, specialty and value grocery chains resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. As grocery retailers diversify their formats, those aligning with consumer preferences for affordability, uniqueness, and quality are well-positioned for continued growth.
Malls have come a long way since their introduction to the world in the 1950s. These gleaming retail hubs promised shoppers a taste of the American dream, offering a third place for teens, families, and everyone in between to shop, socialize, and hang out.
And though malls have faced challenges in recent years, as e-commerce and pandemic-induced store closures led to shifts in consumer habits, the outlook is brightening. Malls have embraced innovation, incorporating enhanced entertainment, dining, and experiential offerings that attract a diverse range of visitors and redefine their purpose.
This white paper takes a look at the recent location intelligence metrics to gain an understanding of the changes taking place at malls across the country – including both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers. The report explores questions like: Why do malls experience foot traffic bumps during the summer months? How much of an impact do movie theaters have on mall visits, and what can mall operators learn from the Mall of America and American Dream malls’ focus on experiential entertainment?
Mall visitation is highly seasonal, with strikingly consistent monthly visitation patterns. Each year, visits decline somewhat in February, pick up in March, and begin to trend upward again in May – before peaking again in August. Then, after a slower September and October, foot traffic skyrockets during the holiday season, spiking dramatically in December.
And while these trends follow similar patterns every year, comparing monthly visits throughout 2019, 2023, and 2024 (YTD) to each year’s own January baseline shows that this seasonality is growing more pronounced - especially for indoor malls.
Following a lackluster 2023, visits to both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers peaked higher in March 2024 than in 2019. And this summer, indoor malls in particular saw a much larger visit boost than in previous years. In August 2024, for example, visits to indoor malls were 27.3% higher than in January 2024 – a substantially higher baseline jump than that seen either in August 2019 (17.0%) or in August 2023 (12.0%). And though open-air shopping centers experienced a smaller summer visit boost, they too saw a bigger bump this year than in 2019 or in 2023.
But malls aren’t just seeing larger visit spikes this year relative to their January baselines – they are also drawing bigger crowds than they did in 2023.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers both experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. Indoor malls saw the largest YoY foot traffic boost (3.7%) – perhaps owing in part to 2024’s record-breaking heat, which led many patrons to seek refuge in air conditioned spaces. Still, open-air shopping centers, which feature plenty of air conditioned stores and restaurants, also enjoyed a YoY visit boost of 2.8% during the analyzed period.
Malls’ strong summer baseline and YoY foot traffic growth built upon the strong performance seen during most of 2024 so far, leading to the question: What is driving malls’ positive momentum? We delve into some of the factors propelling these changes below.
One offering that continues to play a significant role in driving foot traffic to malls is on-site movie theaters. Summer blockbuster releases, in particular, help attract crowds to theaters, in turn boosting overall visits to malls.
Much like malls, movie theaters have also proven their resilience over the past few years. While pundits fretted about the theater’s impending death, production houses were busy releasing blockbuster after blockbuster and shattering box-office records at an impressive clip. And while 2023 was certainly a banner year for blockbuster summer releases, 2024 has had its fair share of stunning box-office successes, leading to major visit boosts at theaters across the country.
Analyzing visits to malls with and without movie theaters highlights the impact of these summer Hollywood hits. Between June and August 2024, malls with theaters saw bigger visit boosts compared to a monthly year-to-date (YTD) average than malls without – an effect observed both for indoor malls and for open-air shopping centers.
For both mall types, the gap between centers with and without movie theaters was most pronounced in July 2024, likely owing to the release of Inside Out 2 in mid-June as well as the July releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twister. But in June and August 2024, too, centers with movie theaters sustained particularly impressive visit boosts – a solid sign that movie theaters and malls remain a winning combination.
Malls with movie theaters also drew higher shares of evening visits (7:00 PM - 10:00 PM) this summer than those without. Between June and August 2024, for example, evening outings accounted for 22.9% of visits to open-air shopping centers with movie theaters – compared to 18.2% of visits to centers without theaters. Indoor malls with theaters also saw a larger share of evening visits than those without – 18.1% compared to 15.0%.
This increase in evening traffic is likely driven by major summer movie releases and the flexibility of summer schedules, with many visitors – including families – taking advantage of late-night outings without the concern of early wakeup calls. These summer visitation trends benefit both theaters and malls, opening up opportunities for increased sales through concessions, promotions, and evening deals that attract a more relaxed and engaged crowd.
Analyzing the demographics of malls’ captured markets also reveals that centers with movie theaters are more likely to attract certain family-oriented segments than those without. (A mall’s captured market consists of the mall’s trade areas – the census block groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to the mall – weighted according to each CBG’s actual share of visits to the mall.)
Between June and August 2024, for example, 14.2% of the captured markets of open-air shopping centers with movie theaters were made up of “Wealthy Suburban Families” – compared to 9.7% for open-air shopping centers without theaters.
Indoor malls saw a similar pattern with regard to “Near-Urban Diverse Families”: Middle class families living in and around cities made up 9.0% of the captured markets of indoor malls with movie theaters, compared to 7.1% of the captured markets of those without.
This increase in foot traffic from middle-class and wealthy family segments can be a boon for malls and retail tenants – driving up food court profits and bolstering sales at stores with kid-friendly offerings.
Malls have long positioned themselves as destinations for summer entertainment as well as retail therapy, holding – in addition to back to school sales – events like Fourth of July celebrations and even indoor basketball and arena football games. And during the summer months, malls attract visitors from further away.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls drew 18.2% of visitors from 30+ miles away – compared to just 16.7% during the first five months of the year. Similarly, open-air shopping centers drew 19.6% of visits from 30+ miles away during the summer, compared to 17.1% between January and May.
Extended daylight hours, summer trips away from home, and more free time are likely among the contributors to the summer draw for long-distance mall visitors. But in addition to their classic offerings – from movie theaters to stores and food courts – malls have also invested in other kinds of unique experiences to attract visitors. This next section takes a look at two mega-malls winning at the visitation game, to see what sets them apart.
The Minneapolis-based Mall of America opened in 1992, redefining the limits of what a mall could offer. The mall boasts hundreds of stores, games, rides, and more – and is constantly expanding its attractions, cementing its status as a top destination for retail and entertainment.
Between June and August 2024, Mall of America experienced a 13.8% YoY visit increase, far outperforming the 3.7% visit boost seen by the wider indoor mall space. And as a major tourist attraction – the mall hosted a series of Olympic-themed events throughout the summer – it also drew 41.6% of visits from 30+ miles away. This share of distant visitors was significantly higher than that seen at the mall during the first five months of 2024, and more than double the segment-wide summer average of 18.2%.
The Mall of America also seems to be attracting more upper-middle-class families during the summer than other indoor malls: Between June and August 2024, some 18.0% of Mall of America’s captured market consisted of “Upper Suburban Diverse Family Households” – a segment including upper-middle-class suburbanites – compared to just 11.1% for the wider indoor mall segment. The increased presence of these families at the Mall of America may be driven by the variety of events offered during the summer.
In 2019, the American Dream Mall in New Jersey opened and became the second-largest mall in the country. Since the mall opened its doors, it has also focused on blending retail and entertainment to draw in as wide a range of visitors as possible – and summer 2024 was no exception.
The mall hosted the Arena Football League Championship, ArenaBowl XXXIII, on Friday, July 19th. The event successfully attracted a higher share of visitors traveling from 30+ miles away compared to the average summer Friday – 35.4% compared to 25.7%.
Visits to the mall on the day of the championship were also 13.6% higher than the Friday visit average for the period between June and August 2024, showcasing the mall’s ability to draw in crowds by hosting major events.
Malls – both indoor and open-air – continue to evolve while playing a central role in the American retail landscape. Increasingly, malls are emerging as destinations for more than just shopping – especially during the summer – driving up foot traffic and attracting visitors from near and far. And while much is often said about the impact of holiday seasons on mall foot traffic, summer months offer another opportunity to boost mall visits. Malls that can curate experiences that resonate with their clientele can hope to see foot traffic growth – in the summer months and beyond.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
