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The arts and crafts sector is undergoing a major shakeup. Party City shuttered all corporate-owned stores early in the year after filing for bankruptcy, and by May, JOANN had closed its doors as well. But what could have been a moment of contraction for the largely discretionary category has instead accelerated growth for its strongest players. The industry is consolidating around two leaders – Hobby Lobby and Michaels.
What explains the continued strength of these two banners? And how are they positioning themselves to capture share in a reshaped retail landscape? We dove into the data to find out.
Despite its discretionary nature, crafting is flourishing in 2025. Screen-fatigued consumers are embracing hands-on, mindful projects like knitting, embroidery, and DIY décor as creative outlets and stress relievers. At the same time, crafting serves a practical role, producing inexpensive gifts and home decorations that help households stretch budgets while delivering creative satisfaction.
And Hobby Lobby and Michaels are making the most of this opportunity. Since April 2025, both chains have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, expanding their footprints while also driving more visits to existing locations. And with JOANN and Party City out of the picture, both retailers appear poised to capture displaced demand and further cement their leadership.
Each retailer is following a different path to success.
Michaels has leaned aggressively into the category's realignment. The company acquired JOANN's intellectual property and private-label brands to broaden its assortment and has moved quickly into Party City's vacated territory with an expanded lineup of balloons and party goods. Michaels is also doubling down on in-store experiences like birthday parties and leaning even more heavily into seasonal products – including for Halloween, Party City’s traditional stronghold.
This latter move could prove especially powerful during the upcoming spooky season. Halloween was historically Party City’s busiest period of the year, with October 2024 visits surging nearly 95% above the chain’s monthly average. With Party City gone – and Michaels already rolling out its “Summerween” offerings – the retailer looks well-positioned to capture some of that seasonal momentum and emerge as one of Halloween’s new retail destinations.
Hobby Lobby, by contrast, has stuck to its proven strategy of steadily expanding a nationwide fleet of large-format stores with broad, affordable selections. And this approach continues to pay dividends.
Though Hobby Lobby doesn’t really do Halloween, it carries plenty of seasonal decorations – which have traditionally driven substantial holiday visit boosts from November (see graph above). Hobby Lobby’s immersive environment also encourages extended browsing sessions, leading to longer visits. Between May and July of this year, shoppers averaged 31.4 minutes per trip to Hobby Lobby compared to 25.5 minutes at Michaels. The chain also leads in loyalty: Over the same period, 21.5% to 23.3% of visitors shopped at Hobby Lobby at least twice per month, a significant increase from last year.
Far from being sidelined as a discretionary indulgence, crafting has become an outlet for creativity, mindfulness, and affordability – and the shakeout of weaker players has only sharpened the advantage of category leaders. With Michaels pushing boundaries through innovation and seasonal dominance, and Hobby Lobby deepening loyalty through scale and consistency, both banners are positioned to ride the craft retail wave well into the future.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Black Rock Coffee Bar ended its NASDAQ debut in September 2025 at a market valuation of $1.32 billion – a remarkable showing for the relatively young coffee chain.
We took a closer look at the data to see what sets Black Rock apart from its competitors – and what might be fueling its remarkable valuation and early surge in share price.
Black Rock Coffee Bar, which was founded in Oregon and is currently based in Arizona, has been on an impressive growth trajectory– between 2020 and 2025, the chain doubled its unit count, and the company is now targeting 1,000 locations by 2035.
Fueled by its aggressive expansion, Black Rock’s traffic has surged since 2019, with Q2 2025 visits up 226.5% compared to Q3 2019. These trends echo the trajectory of Dutch Bros – another rapidly growing coffee chain founded in Oregon – whose growth path since 2019 closely mirrors Black Rock’s, as shown in the graph below.
Despite their shared origins and similar growth trajectories, the two chains draw distinct audiences. Dutch Bros tends to attract visitors from less affluent neighborhoods, both nationally and within Oregon – due in large part to its typically younger audience – whereas Black Rock Coffee’s customer base skews more affluent than the median in both contexts.
This contrast suggests that the coffee space has ample room for two Oregon-founded chains to scale quickly, as each taps into a distinct segment of the market with complementary growth potential. Dutch Bros can lean into accessibility and mass-market appeal, while Black Rock is positioned to build loyalty with higher-income consumers, potentially supporting premium offerings, differentiated experiences, and stronger long-term margins.
Focusing on recent months shows that – although Black Rock Coffee is maintaining overall positive visit growth – average visits per location have slipped slightly, as seen in the chart below. What does this mean for Black Rock Coffee's future?
Overall traffic is still climbing and new stores are expanding the brand's customer base, so the slowdown appears to be a short-term adjustment rather than a hard ceiling. But the dip in visits per venue may indicate that the chain is beginning to saturate its traditional western and southern markets – signaling that further growth may depend on expansion into new states and DMAs.
Black Rock Coffee's growth is reminiscent of that of Dutch Bros, and demographic differences between their audiences create room for both chains to continue expanding – though Black Rock's softer per-location trends bear watching as it expands. Still, the chain’s affluent customer base provides resilience and supports long-term growth, helping explain Black Rock Coffee's premium valuation and early market enthusiasm.
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
East and South Asian grocery chains continue to perform well, with YoY visits outperforming the broader grocery segment in most cases, as seen in the chart below.
One factor behind the success of specialty grocery chains is their ability to serve as true destinations rather than just another place to pick up groceries, as visitor behavior data suggests that these grocers engage their visitors more deeply than traditional grocery chains.
Shoppers spend more time in these specialty grocery stores (27 to 41 minutes per visit on average compared to 23 minutes at traditional supermarkets). Consumers are also more likely to visit on weekends – the grocery category as a whole receives less than 33% of its visits on weekends, compared to H Mart, 99 Ranch Market, Mitsuwa Marketplace, and Patel Brothers where 39.3% to 42.4% of visits take place over the weekend. Together, these patterns reinforce the positioning of East and South Asian grocers as experiential, destination-driven retailers rather than routine errand stops.
Looking ahead, some chains are working on opening more stores, with H Mart slated to open four new locations in Florida, Texas, and California, while 99 Ranch just opened its first New York City location. These expansions signal continued momentum in both established and new markets.
The success of Southeast and East Asian grocers may highlight a broader consumer shift: shopping trips that feel purposeful, engaging, and even entertaining are increasingly valued in an age where routine purchases can be easily fulfilled online. Traditional grocers looking to tap into this trend may need to rethink their formats, merchandising, and in-store experiences, potentially leaning more into specialty assortments, foodservice options, or community programming. More broadly, for retailers of all types, the success of Asian grocers illustrates the growing importance of creating destination-driven experiences that transform shopping into an outing rather than a chore. Retailers who cultivate environments that invite discovery, linger time, and weekend traffic may find themselves better positioned to capture both customer loyalty and discretionary spending.
For the latest up-to-date grocery trends, check out our free tools.
Costco (COST) has maintained an impressive growth streak since the pandemic, with visits up year-over-year (YoY) every quarter since Q2 2021, as shown in the chart below.
Importantly, although the retailer has expanded significantly during this time, this growth has not been fueled by expansion alone: Same-store visits have also consistently increased during this period – indicating that the retailer is driving more traffic to existing stores and quickly building strong member bases at its new warehouses.
The latest data suggests that Costco has no plans of slowing down. Overall visits continued to grow in 2025 while same-store visits increased or held steady. And even as brick-and-mortar retail traffic softened over the summer, Costco bucked the trend: August 2025 traffic to Costco grew 5.5% YoY while same-store visits rose 4.0% – likely boosted by back-to-school demand.
In-store consumer behavior also highlights Costco's consumer appeal. Visitors to the chain spend considerably more time per visit than visitors to other superstores or grocery chains. This longer dwell time not only increases the likelihood of larger basket sizes, but also highlights the effectiveness of Costco’s curated merchandising strategy that offers consumers an engaging experience while encouraging cross-category shopping.
Macro conditions may help Costco grow even further in the near future. Gas prices have fallen recently, reducing the cost of driving to warehouse clubs often located outside dense residential areas. Grocery inflation has cooled as well, relieving pressure on households that might have pulled back from bulk purchases, while keeping value top of mind. Together, lower fuel costs and moderating food prices reduce friction and reinforce steady trip frequency to value-oriented, drive-to formats like Costco.
Looking ahead, Costco’s combination of consistent traffic growth, favorable macro conditions, and industry-leading in-store engagement underscores its resilience in a challenging retail environment. For investors, these trends point to continued revenue durability supported by membership economics and strong spend-per-visit. For retailers, Costco offers a blueprint: build loyalty through value and elevate engagement with experience. This approach has made Costco not only a standout performer today, but also one of the best-positioned retailers to sustain growth into the next cycle.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The state of the consumer was top of mind during second-quarter 2025 earnings calls, as restaurant executives consistently described a more cautious and discerning customer. Leaders from major brands like McDonald's, Chipotle, and Starbucks noted that lower-income consumers, in particular, are feeling the pressure of a challenging economy and are pulling back on the frequency of their visits.
McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski framed it as a "two-tier economy," where affluent consumers continue to spend while lower-to-middle income households face significant cost-of-living pressures. This trend is visible in visitation data, which shows quick-service (QSR) and fast-casual restaurants underperforming full-service restaurants and coffee chains in recent months.
This consumer caution has led to a "trade-down" effect, where customers actively seek value-oriented promotions or skip add-ons like a beverage to manage their check size. In response, brands are emphasizing affordable meal bundles – like McDonald’s Extra Value Meals and Taco Bell’s Decades Y2K throwback menu featuring fan-favorites under $3 – and leveraging their loyalty programs to retain these budget-conscious patrons.
As 2025 progresses, QSRs face intense competition not just from each other, but from a growing array of value-oriented retailers. Driven by rising menu prices at fast-food chains, highly price-conscious consumers are actively seeking more affordable meal options. Value-oriented grocery stores, dollar stores, and convenience stores have aggressively expanded their grab-and-go and prepared food offerings, making them direct rivals for lunch and dinner.
As the price gap between dining out and eating at home widens, these channels are successfully capturing a greater "share of stomach," particularly from consumers who now view a trip to the grocery or dollar store as a more economical alternative to a QSR visit. We see this in our visitation data, where the number of McDonald’s and other other QSR visitors are increasingly visiting Aldi and other value-oriented options.
The lunch hour has become a key battleground, with fresh-format and value grocers seeing a notable increase in foot traffic as they expand their high-quality, convenient, and affordable grab-and-go options. This has siphoned off a portion of the traditional lunch crowd from fast-casual restaurants, as consumers – particularly office workers – increasingly opt for a trip to the grocery store.
This pressure contributed to weaker-than-expected results for premium fast-casual chains like Chipotle, Sweetgreen, and CAVA. While these brands were up against tough comparisons from product launches a year ago (Chicken al Pastor for Chipotle, steak options for sweetgreen and CAVA), the slowdown was more significant than anticipated.
What’s to make of this slowdown? In addition to tougher comparisons, the explanation is likely a multi-faceted consumer response to a challenging economic environment and a crowded marketplace. Like QSR chains, many budget-conscious fast-casual customers began trading down, either opting for less expensive fast-food alternatives or simply reducing the frequency of their visits to these pricier lunch spots.
At the same time, a segment of their health-conscious consumer base increasingly turned to specialty grocers like Whole Foods and Trader Joe's, where they could assemble their own high-quality bowls for a lower cost. Compounding the issue was a growing sentiment of "slop bowl" fatigue, a perception that the once-innovative format had become commoditized, with little differentiation between the chains, leading some consumers to seek out more unique dining experiences.
Chili's continued its significant outperformance of the restaurant industry in the second quarter of 2025 by successfully executing a multi-faceted strategy centered on a compelling value message that resonated with increasingly price-conscious consumers. The brand's success was largely driven by the popularity of its heavily marketed "3 for Me" bundled meal deal and its "Triple Dipper" appetizer promotion, which together attracted a surge of new and repeat customers. This effective value messaging was supported by substantial investments in marketing and crucial back-of-house operational improvements, which enhanced food quality and service consistency, allowing Chili's to capture a significant share of visits while many competitors in the casual dining space struggled with declining traffic.
It’s not just Chili’s however. Applebee's, for instance, managed to drive a 4.9% increase in same-store sales during its most recent quarter, a significant turnaround attributed to its own value-driven promotions and menu innovations that successfully boosted customer traffic. Olive Garden delivered a solid performance in its most recent quarter, achieving a 2.0% increase in same-restaurant sales. This growth was largely fueled by the success of its value promotions and a significant nearly 20% surge in takeout sales, which helped attract a younger, more frequent customer base according to management.
As the restaurant industry moves into the second half of 2025, the second quarter's results paint a clear picture of a market defined by a strategic, value-seeking consumer. The resounding success of casual dining chains like Chili's and Applebee's, which leaned heavily into affordable, bundled meals, demonstrates that a compelling value proposition can still drive significant traffic and sales. Conversely, the fast-casual and QSR segments are facing an identity crisis, squeezed by intense competition from lower-priced grocery and convenience store alternatives and the aggressive promotions from sit-down restaurants.
Ultimately, the brands that will thrive for the remainder of the year will be those that can master the art of delivering a strong, clear value equation – whether through price, experience, or convenience – to a customer who is more discerning with their dining dollars than ever before.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Since June 30, 2025, Costco has offered Executive members an extra hour to shop at many warehouses, and by September the perk expanded company-wide. Traffic data shows that the extended hours are already reshaping shopping patterns, with measurable impacts on both visit timing and dwell times.
The chart below compares Costco visit patterns between April and June 2025, before extended Executive Member hours were introduced, with July and August 2025, when most warehouses began offering exclusive early access from 9:00 AM to 10:00 AM. The additional morning hour appears to have encouraged some Executive members to shift their trips earlier in the day, which in turn reduced traffic concentration during late-morning and afternoon peaks.
This redistribution helps create a more balanced flow of visitors, likely improving the shopping experience for members overall.
The impact of early openings extends beyond when members shop – it also affects how they shop. The chart below, which tracks visit lengths before and after the introduction of early Executive openings, shows that the share of Costco visits lasting 30 to 45 minutes increased in July and August while the share of visits lasting 45 to 60 minutes fell.
This shift suggests that early-access shoppers are more purposeful and efficient, taking advantage of lighter crowds and easier store navigation. Importantly, Costco did not assign additional staff hours to cover the new morning window – a decision that seems to be validated by the data. With members shopping more efficiently, the company managed to enhance customer experience without increasing operational costs.
A Win-Win for Members and Retail Operations
By extending special hours to Executive members, Costco not only rewards high-value customers but also reduces congestion during traditional peaks. The smoother distribution of visits and more efficient shopping trips underscore how strategic adjustments to operating hours can drive meaningful changes in consumer behavior.
As retailers navigate evolving shopper expectations, Costco’s example highlights the power of data-driven scheduling to enhance both customer satisfaction and operational efficiency.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The pandemic and economic headwinds that marked the past few years presented the multi-billion dollar hotel industry with significant challenges. But five years later, the industry is rallying – and some hotel segments are showing significant growth.
This white paper delves into location analytics across six major hotel categories – Luxury Hotels, Upper Upscale Hotels, Upscale Hotels, Upper Midscale Hotels, Midscale Hotels, and Economy Hotels – to explore the current state of the American hospitality market. The report examines changes in guest behavior, personas, and characteristics and looks at factors driving current visitation trends.
Overall, visits to hotels were 4.3% lower in Q2 2024 than in Q2 2019 (pre-pandemic). But this metric only tells part of the story. A deeper dive into the data shows that each hotel tier has been on a more nuanced recovery trajectory.
Economy chains – those offering the most basic accommodations at the lowest prices – saw visits down 24.6% in Q2 2024 compared to pre-pandemic – likely due in part to hotel closures that have plagued the tier in recent years. Though these chains were initially less impacted by the pandemic, they were dealt a significant blow by inflation – and have seen visits decline over the past three years. As hotels that cater to the most price-sensitive guests, these chains are particularly vulnerable to rising costs, and the first to suffer when consumer confidence takes a hit.
Luxury Hotels, on the other hand, have seen accelerated visit growth over the past year – and have succeeded in closing their pre-pandemic visit gap. Upscale chains, too, saw Q2 2024 visits on par with Q2 2019 levels. As tiers that serve wealthier guests with more disposable income, Luxury and Upscale Hotels are continuing to thrive in the face of headwinds.
But it is the Upper Midscale level – a tier that includes brands like Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Fairfield by Marriott, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Hampton by Hilton – that has experienced the most robust visit growth compared to pre-pandemic. In Q2 2024, Upper Midscale Hotels drew 3.5% more visits than in Q2 2019. And during last year’s peak season (Q3 2023), Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest visit boost of any analyzed tier.
As mid-range hotels that still offer a broad range of amenities, Upper Midscale chains strike a balance between indulgence and affordability. And perhaps unsurprisingly, hotel operators have been investing in this tier: In Q4 2023, Upper Midscale Hotels had the highest project count of any tier in the U.S. hotel construction and renovation pipeline.
The shift in favor of Upper Midscale Hotels and away from Economy chains is also evident when analyzing changes in relative visit share among the six hotel categories.
Upper Midscale hotels have always been major players: In H1 2019 they drew 28.7% of overall hotel visits – the most of any tier. But by H1 2024, their share of visits increased to 31.2%. Upscale Hotels – the second-largest tier – also saw their visit share increase, from 24.8% to 26.1%.
Meanwhile, Economy, Midscale, and Upper Upscale Hotels saw drops in visit share – with Economy chains, unsurprisingly, seeing the biggest decline. Luxury Hotels, for their parts, held firmly onto their piece of the pie, drawing 2.8% of visits in H1 2024.
Who are the visitors fueling the Upper Midscale visit revival? This next section explores shifts in visitor demographics to four Upper Midscale chains that are outperforming pre-pandemic visit levels: Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, Fairfield by Marriott, and Hampton by Hilton.
Analyzing the captured markets* of the four chains with demographics from STI: Popstats (2023) shows variance in the relative affluence of their visitor bases.
Fairfield by Marriott drew visitors from areas with a median household income (HHI) of $84.0K in H1 2024, well above the nationwide average of $76.1K. Hampton by Hilton and Trademark Collection by Wyndham, for their parts, drew guests from areas with respective HHIs of $79.6K and $78.5K – just above the nationwide average. Meanwhile, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts drew visitors from areas below the nationwide average.
But all four brands saw increases in the median HHIs of their captured markets over the past five years. This provides a further indication that it is wealthier consumers – those who have had to cut back less in the face of inflation – who are driving hotel recovery in 2024.
(*A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice.)
Much of the Upper Midscale visit growth is being driven by chain expansion. But in some areas of the country, the average number of visits to individual hotel locations is also on the rise – highlighting especially robust growth potential.
Analyzing visits to existing Upper Midscale chains in four metropolitan areas with booming tourism industries – Salt Lake City, UT, Palm Bay, FL, San Diego, CA, and Richmond, VA – shows that these markets feature robust untapped demand.
Utah, for example, has emerged as a tourist hotspot in recent years – with millions of visitors flocking each year to local destinations like Salt Lake City to see the sights and take in the great outdoors. And Upper Midscale hotels in the region are reaping the benefits. In H1 2024, the overall number of visits to Upper Midscale chains in Salt Lake City was 69.4% higher than in H1 2019. Though some of this increase can be attributed to local chain expansion, the average number of visits to each individual Upper Midscale location in the area also rose by 12.5% over the same period.
Palm Bay, FL (the Space Coast) – another tourist favorite – is experiencing a similar trend. Between H1 2019 and H1 2024, overall visits to local Upper Midscale hotel chains grew by 36.4% – while the average number of visits per location increased a substantial 16.9%. Given this strong demand, it may come as no surprise that the area is undergoing a hotel construction boom. Upper Midscale hotels in other areas with flourishing tourism sectors, like San Diego, CA and Richmond, VA, are seeing similar trends, with increases in both overall visits and and in the average number of visits per location.
Though Economy chains have underperformed versus other categories in recent years, the tier does feature some bright spots. Some extended-stay brands in the Economy tier – hotels with perks and amenities that cater to the needs of longer-stay travelers – are succeeding despite category headwinds.
Choice Hotels’ portfolio, for example, includes WoodSpring Suites, an Economy chain offering affordable extended-stay accommodations in 35 states. In H1 2024, the chain drew 7.7% more visits than in the first half of 2019 – even as the wider Economy sector continued to languish. InTown Suites, another Economy extended stay chain, saw visits increase by 8.9% over the same period.
And location intelligence shows that the success of these two chains is likely being driven, in part, by their growing appeal to young, well-educated professionals. In H1 2019, households belonging to Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Young Professionals” segment made up 9.6% of WoodSpring Suites’ captured market. But by H1 2024, the share of this group jumped dramatically to 13.3%. At the same time, InTown Suites saw its share of Young Professionals increase from 12.0% to 13.4%.
Whether due to an affinity for prolonged “workcations” (so-called “bleisure” excursions) or an embrace of super-commuting, younger guests have emerged as key drivers of growth for the extended stay segment. And by offering low–cost accommodations that meet the needs of these travelers, Economy chains can continue to grow their share of the pie.
The hospitality industry recovery continues – led by Upper Midscale Hotels, which offer elevated experiences that don’t break the bank. But today’s market has room for other tiers as well. By keeping abreast of local visitation patterns and changing consumer profiles, hotels across chain scales can personalize the visitor experience and drive customer satisfaction.
The past few years have provided the tourism sector with a multitude of headwinds, from pandemic-induced lockdowns to persistent inflation and a rise in extreme weather events. But despite these challenges, people are more excited than ever to travel – more than half of respondents to a recent survey are planning on increasing their travel budgets in the coming months.
And while revenge travel to overseas destinations is still very much alive and well, the often high costs associated with traveling abroad are shaping the way people choose to travel. Domestic travel and tourism are seeing significant growth as more affordable alternatives.
This white paper takes a closer look at two of the most popular domestic tourism destinations in the country – New York City and Los Angeles. Over the past year, both cities have continued to be leading tourism hotspots, offering a wealth of attractions for visitors. What does tourism to these two cities look like in 2024, and what has changed since before the pandemic? How have inflation and rising airfare prices affected the demographics and psychographics of visitors to these major hubs?
Analyzing the distribution of domestic tourists across CBSAs nationwide from May 2023 to April 2024 reveals New York and Los Angeles to be two of the nation’s most popular destinations. (Tourists include overnight visitors staying in a given CBSA for up to 31 days).
The New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro area drew the largest share of domestic tourists of any CBSA during the analyzed period (2.7%), followed closely by the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA CBSA (2.5%). Other domestic tourism hotspots included Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL (tied for second place with 2.5% of visitors), Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (1.9%), Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV (1.8%), Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL (1.8%), and Chicago-Naperville, Elgin, IL-IN-WI (1.6%).
The Big Apple. The City That Never Sleeps. Empire City. Whatever it’s called, New York City remains one of the most well-known tourist destinations in the world. And for many Americans, New York is the perfect place for an extended weekend getaway – or for a multi-day excursion to see the sights.
But where do these NYC-bound vacationers come from? Diving into the data on the origin of visitors making medium-length trips to New York City (three to seven nights) reveals that increasingly, these domestic tourists are coming from nearby metro areas.
Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, for example, the number of tourists visiting New York City from the Philadelphia metro area increased by 19.2%.
The number of tourists coming from the Boston and Washington, D.C metro areas, and from the New York CBSA itself (New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA) also increased over the same period.
Meanwhile, further-away CBSAs like San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA, Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL fed fewer tourists to NYC in 2023-2024 than they did pre-pandemic. It seems that residents of these more distant metro areas are opting for vacation destinations closer to home to avoid the high costs of air travel.
Diving even deeper into the characteristics of visitors taking medium-length trips to New York City reveals another demographic shift: Tourists staying between three and seven nights in the Big Apple are skewing younger.
Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, the share of visitors to New York City from areas with median ages under 30 grew from 2.1% to 4.5%. Meanwhile, the share of visitors from areas with median ages between 31 and 40 increased from 34.3% to 37.7%.
The impact of this trend is already being felt in the Big Apple, with The Broadway League reporting that the average age of audiences to its shows during the 2022- 2023 season was the youngest it had been in 20 seasons.
The shift towards younger tourists can also be seen when examining the psychographic makeup of visitors to popular attractions in New York City. Analyzing the captured markets of major NYC landmarks with data from Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive dataset reveals an increase in households belonging to the “Educated Urbanites” segment between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024.
These well-educated, young singles are increasingly visiting iconic NYC venues such as the Whitney Museum of American Art, The Metropolitan Museum of Art, The American Museum of Natural History, and the Statue of Liberty. This shift highlights the growing popularity of these attractions among young, educated singles, reflecting a broader trend of increased domestic tourism among this demographic.
New York City’s tourism sector is adapting to meet the changing needs of travelers, fueled increasingly by younger visitors who may be unable to take a costly international vacation. How have travel patterns to Los Angeles changed in response to increasing travel costs?
While New York City is the East Coast’s tourism hotspot, Los Angeles takes center stage on the West Coast. And as overseas travel has become increasingly out of reach for Americans with less discretionary income, the share of domestic tourists originating from areas with lower HHIs has risen.
Before the pandemic, 57.6% of visitors to LA came from affluent areas with median household incomes (HHIs) of over $90K/year. But by 2023-2024, this share decreased to 50.7%. Over the same period, the share of visitors from areas with median HHIs between $41K and $60K increased from 9.7% to 12.5%, while the share of visitors from areas with HHIs between $61K and $90K rose from 32.1% to 35.8%.
Diving into the psychographic makeup of visitors to popular Los Angeles attractions – Universal Studios Hollywood, Disneyland California, the Santa Monica Pier, and Griffith Observatory – also reflects the above-mentioned shift in HHI. The captured markets of these attractions had higher shares of middle-income households belonging to the “Family Union” psychographic segment in 2023-2024 than in 2018-2019.
Experian: Mosaic defines this segment as “middle income, middle-aged families living in homes supported by solid blue-collar occupations.” Pre-pandemic, 16.0% of visitors to Universal Studios Hollywood came from trade areas with high shares of “Family Union” households. This number jumped to 18.8% over the past year. A similar trend occurred at Disneyland, Santa Monica Pier, and Griffith Observatory.
And like in New York City, growing numbers of visitors to Los Angeles appear to be coming from nearby areas. Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, the share of in-state visitors to major Los Angeles attractions increased substantially – as people likely sought to cut costs by keeping things local.
Pre-pandemic, for example, 68.9% of visitors to Universal Studios Hollywood came from within California – a share that increased to 72.0% over the past year. Similarly, 59.7% of Griffith Observatory visitors in 2018-2019 came from within the state – and by 2023-2024, that number grew to 64.7%.
Even when times are tight, people love to travel – and New York and Los Angeles are two of their favorite destinations. With prices for airfare, hotels, and dining out increasing across the board, younger and more price-conscious households are adapting, choosing to visit nearby cities and enjoy attractions closer to home. And as the tourism industry continues its recovery, understanding emerging visitation trends can help stakeholders meet travelers where they are.
The positive retail momentum observed in Q1 2024 continued into Q2 – as stabilizing prices and a strong job market fostered cautious optimism among consumers. Year-over-year (YoY) retail foot traffic remained elevated throughout the quarter, with June in particular seeing significant weekly visit boosts ranging from 4.7% to 8.5%.
The robustness of the retail sector in Q2 was also highlighted by positive visit growth during the quarter’s special calendar occasions, including Mother’s Day (the week of May 6th) and Memorial Day (the week of May 27th). And though consumer spending may moderate as the year wears on, retail’s strong Q2 showing offers plenty of room for optimism ahead of back-to-school sales and other summer milestones.
On a quarterly basis, overall retail visits rose 4.2% in Q2. And diving into specific categories shows that value continued to reign supreme, with discount and dollar stores seeing the most robust YoY visit growth (11.2%) of any analyzed category.
Other essential goods purveyors, such as grocery store chains (7.6%) and superstores (4.6%), also outperformed the overall retail baseline. And fitness – a category deemed essential by many health-conscious consumers – outpaced overall retail with a substantial 6.0% YoY foot traffic increase.
The decidedly more discretionary home improvement industry performed less well than overall retail in Q2 – but in another sign of consumer resilience, it too experienced a YoY visit uptick. And overall restaurant foot traffic increased 2.6% YoY.
Discount and dollar stores enjoyed a strong Q2 2024, maintaining YoY visit growth above 10.0% for six out of the quarter’s 13 weeks. Only during the week of April 1st did the category see a temporary decline, likely the result of an Easter calendar shift. (The week of April 1st 2024 is being compared to the week of April 3rd, 2023, which included the run-up to Easter)
Some of this growth can be attributed to the continued expansion of segment leaders like Dollar General. But the category has also been bolstered by the emphasis consumers continue to place on value in the face of still-high prices and economic uncertainty.
Dollar General, which has been expanding both its store count and its grocery offerings, saw YoY visits increase between 9.1% and 15.9% throughout the quarter. Affordable-indulgence-oriented Five Below, which has also been adding locations at a brisk clip, saw YoY visits increase between 4.9% and 18.8%.
And though Dollar Tree has taken steps to rightsize its Family Dollar brand, the company’s eponymous banner – which caters to middle-income consumers in suburban areas – continued to grow both its store count and its visits in Q2.
Grocery store chains also performed well in Q2 2024 – experiencing strongly positive foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. Though the sector continues to face its share of challenges, stabilizing food-at-home prices and improvements in employee retention and supply chain management have helped propel the industry forward.
Diving into the performance of specific chains shows that within the grocery segment, too, price was paramount in Q2 2024 – with limited-assortment value grocery stores like Aldi and Trader Joe’s leading the way.
Traditional chains H-E-B and Food Lion (owned by Ahold Delhaize) – both of which are known for relatively low prices – outperformed the wider grocery sector with respective YoY foot traffic boosts of 11.4% and 8.7%. But ShopRite, Safeway (owned by Albertsons), Kroger, and Albertsons also drew more visits in Q2 2024 than in the equivalent period of last year.
Fitness has proven to be relatively inflation-proof in recent years – thriving even in the face of reduced discretionary spending and consumer cutbacks. Indeed, rising prices may have actually helped boost gym attendance, as people sought to squeeze the most value out of their monthly fees and replace pricy outings with already-paid-for gym excursions.
And despite lapping a remarkably strong 2023, visits to gyms nationwide remained elevated YoY in Q2 2024.
Diving into the data for some of the nation’s leading gyms shows that today’s fitness market has plenty of room at the top. Planet Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, Life Time Fitness, Orangetheory Fitness, and LA Fitness all experienced YoY visit growth in Q2 2024 – reflecting consumers’ enduring interest in all things wellness-related.
But it was EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness – two value gyms that have been pursuing aggressive expansion strategies – that really hit it out of the park, with respective YoY foot traffic increases of 23.4% and 21.4%.
The week of April 1st saw a decline in YoY visits to superstores – likely attributable to the Easter calendar shift noted above. But the category quickly rallied, and with back-to-school shopping and major superstore sales events coming up this July, the category appears poised to enjoy continued success throughout the summer.
Within the superstore category, wholesale clubs continued to stand out – with Costco Wholesale, Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club enjoying YoY foot traffic growth ranging from 12.0% to 7.4%. But Target and Walmart also impressed with 4.6% and 4.0% YoY visit increases.
Inflation, elevated interest rates, and a sluggish real estate market have created a perfect storm for the home improvement industry, with spending on renovations in decline. The accelerated return to office has likely also taken its toll on the category, as people spend more time outside the home and have less availability to immerse themselves in DIY projects.
But despite these challenges, weekly YoY foot traffic to home improvement and furnishing chains remained elevated throughout much of the Q2 – with June and April seeing mostly positive YoY visit growth, and May hovering just below 2023 levels. This (modest) visit growth may be driven by consumers loading up on supplies for necessary home repairs, or by shoppers seeking materials for smaller projects. And given the importance of Q2 for the home improvement sector, this largely positive snapshot may offer some promise of good things to come.
Some chains within the home improvement category continued to perform especially well in Q2 2024 – with rapidly expanding, budget-oriented Harbor Freight Tools leading the pack. But Ace Hardware, Menards, The Home Depot, and Lowe’s also saw foot traffic increases in Q2, showcasing the category’s resilience in the face of headwinds.
Restaurants – including full-service restaurants (FSR), quick-service restaurants (QSR), fast-casual chains, and coffee chains – lagged behind grocery stores and other essential goods retailers in Q2 2024, as price-sensitive consumers prioritized needs over wants and ate at home more often.
Still, YoY restaurant foot traffic remained up throughout most of the quarter. And impressively, the sector saw a YoY visit uptick during the week of Mother’s Day (the week of May 6th, 2024, compared to the week of May 8th, 2023) – an important milestone for FSR.
The restaurant industry’s YoY visit growth was felt across segments – though fast-casual and coffee chains experienced the biggest visit boosts. Like in Q1 2024, fast-casual restaurants hit the sweet spot between indulgence and affordability, outpacing QSR in the wake of fast food price hikes. And building on the positive YoY trendline that began to emerge last quarter, full-service restaurants finished Q2 2024 with a 1.4% YoY visit uptick.
Chain expansion was the name of the restaurant game in Q2 2024, with several chains that have been growing their footprints outperforming segment averages – including CAVA, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Ziggi’s Coffee, California-based Philz Coffee, Raising Cane’s, Whataburger, and First Watch. Chili’s Grill and Bar also outpaced the full-service category average, aided by the revamping of its “3 for Me” menu.
Retailers and restaurants in Q2 2024 continued to face plenty of challenges, from inflation to rising labor costs and volatile consumer confidence. But foot traffic trends across industries – including both essential goods purveyors like grocery stores and more discretionary categories like home improvement and restaurants – suggest plenty of room for cautious optimism as 2024 wears on.
