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Many of Thanksgiving’s consumer behavior impacts are broadly recognized, from the pre-Thanksgiving Turkey Wednesday peak at grocery stores to the post-Thanksgiving Black Friday shopping bonanza. But diving into consumer foot traffic trends for the week before the holiday reveals some lesser-known ripple effects from many Americans’ favorite national event. So how did Thanksgiving impact retail, dining, and airport visits this year? We analyzed the data to find out.
Many Americans host friends and family for Thanksgiving dinner, leading to the well-recognized spike in pre-Thanksgiving grocery traffic that culminates on Turkey Wednesday. But hosting a proper Thanksgiving dinner requires more than just good food – the space needs to be prepped as well.
Foot traffic data indicates that many consumers do in fact spend the week before Thanksgiving shopping for decor and other entertainment supplies, driving visit increases at home furnishing stores such as Homesense and at party supply stores such as Party City. And the prospect of guests also seems to motivate consumers to tackle whatever home repair projects they’ve been putting off – visits to home improvement stores, including Home Depot and Lowe’s, also received a significant boost the week before Turkey Day.
All the time spent in the kitchen cooking for Thanksgiving may also be contributing to a rise in dining visits on the days leading up to the holiday. Although visits to restaurants, breakfast joints, and fast food places dipped slightly during the weekend before Thanksgiving, foot traffic to major dining segments began climbing on Monday, November 25th before peaking on Turkey Wednesday.
This increase in dining visits could be due in part to home cooks – and their families – looking to fuel up outside the home as the kitchen gets taken over by Thanksgiving prep. And some Americans who started the Thanksgiving vacation early may choose to spend some quality time going out to eat with their friends and families prior to the big day. Others who are already traveling may also be driving up dining visits by looking for more meals on the go.
But even as some Americans begin their Thanksgiving travels earlier in the week, most Americans traveling by car seem to wait until Wednesday to head out – and the traffic boost to car-related categories seems to occur much closer to the day itself. Car shops & services and gas stations & convenience stores received a minor bump on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving as some Americans hit the road early or got their car serviced ahead of the long drive back home. But most of the traffic boost to car shops, car washes, and gas stations occurred on Wednesday November 27th – just before Thanksgiving travel.
Thanksgiving’s economic impact is not limited to grocery stores and post-Thanksgiving Black Friday shopping. Analyzing consumer foot traffic data for the week before the holiday reveals the widespread impact that Thanksgiving has on a range of consumer sectors, from car washes to dining segments to home improvement.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai.
Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – is the grocery industry’s Black Friday. As shoppers flock to stores for turkeys, cranberry sauce, and other holiday essentials, the day delivers impressive visit spikes for grocery, superstore, and dollar stores alike. But how did this year’s Turkey Wednesday measure up – and which brands capitalized most successfully on this critical shopping event?
We dove into the data to find out.
People love to shop – but they also love to procrastinate, descending on stores just before major holidays to grab last-minute supplies. So far in 2024, March 30th (Easter Eve), May 11th (the day before Mother's Day), and November 27th (Turkey Wednesday) have been the busiest days of the year for grocery stores, superstores, and discount & dollar stores. But while the first two milestones drew bigger crowds to superstores and discount & dollar stores – both natural destinations for gift buyers and food shoppers alike – Turkey Wednesday was the grocery sector’s time to shine.
On November 27th, 2024, grocery stores saw visits surge by 81.0% compared to a year-to-date (YTD) daily average, capturing over half (51.2%) of visits across grocery, superstore, and discount chains. (During the rest of the year, grocery stores account for just 46.6% of the three industries’ overall visit pie.) Still, superstores and discount & dollar stores also attracted plenty of pre-Thanksgiving shoppers with enticing holiday promotions of their own. And despite reports of consumer cut-backs ahead of the holiday, this year’s Turkey Wednesday performance was on par with last year’s, with grocery visits on November 27th 2024 up 0.7% relative to November 22nd 2023 (last year’s Turkey Wednesday).
Diving into statewide grocery store data shows that like Black Friday, Turkey Wednesday’s appeal isn’t evenly distributed across the United States. Though grocery visits spiked nationwide on November 27th, 2024, some regions saw bigger foot traffic peaks than others.
In the Pacific Northwest, parts of New England, and some Mountain states, for example, grocery visits increased by less than 70.0% compared to a YTD daily average. But in parts of the Midwest and South, visits spiked by over 90.0%. Mississippi and Minnesota in particular stood out as major Turkey Wednesday winners, with visits up 96.8% and 96.5%, respectively. These regional differences highlight Turkey Wednesday’s special resonance in areas where holiday shopping traditions like Black Friday also dominate.
Which grocery chains benefit the most from Turkey Wednesday? A look at individual brands shows that traditional grocery stores – think Kroger, Albertsons, and Safeway – generally see bigger pre-Thanksgiving visit boosts than limited-assortment value chains like Aldi and Trader Joe’s. And in keeping with the regional trends noted above, some of the best-performing chains are midwestern favorites like Schnucks and Albertsons’ Jewel-Osco, which saw Turkey Wednesday foot traffic surges this year of 103.9% and 92.6%, respectively.
But numerous other chains also saw major Turkey-fueled visit increases on November 27th – including Food 4 Less, the Kroger-owned regional value chain with locations in both the Midwest and California, and East Coast brands ShopRite and Wegmans. When it comes to last-minute holiday shopping, it seems, there is plenty of room for multiple brands to thrive.
Though value-oriented grocery chains typically see smaller visit spikes on Turkey Wednesday, many budget brands are steadily growing their pre-holiday audiences.
Grocery Outlet Bargain Market and Aldi saw foot traffic rise by 13.5% and 11.2%, respectively, on November 27th, 2024 compared to last year’s Turkey Wednesday. (Both chains also saw substantial increases in the average number of visits to each of their individual locations – 9.7% and 8.4%, respectively – proving that the increase isn’t solely a result of fleet expansion.) Meanwhile, traditional grocery leaders like H-E-B, Kroger’s Ralphs, Ahold Delhaize’s Hannaford, and Albertsons’ Jewel Osco, also recorded year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic gains, highlighting robust performance across much of the sector.
Groceries are a crucial part of the Thanksgiving holiday – but liquor, it seems, may be even more indispensable. On November 27th, 2024, visits to liquor stores surged even higher than visits to grocery stores – generating a remarkable 186.4% visit spike, as consumers stocked up on spirits to ease the mood at stressful family gatherings or to show gratitude to hard-working hosts. Like for grocery stores, Turkey Wednesday was liquor stores’ busiest day of the year so far – though if last year is any indication, the run-up to Christmas will likely generate even more impressive traffic bumps.
Turkey Wednesday 2024 reaffirmed the key role played by traditional grocery stores in the run-up to Thanksgiving. And though supermarkets and liquor stores stole the spotlight, superstores and discount & dollar stores also experienced significant visit upticks – and value chains are steadily growing their pre-holiday audiences. How will these categories continue to fare throughout the rest of the holiday season?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analysis to find out.
Visits to Starbucks usually spike on its annual Red Cup Day, as patrons flock to the chain to order a specialty holiday beverage and receive a complimentary reusable red cup. But last year, the chain’s Red Cup Day performance was relatively muted – although foot traffic still got a boost, the jump was not quite as significant as in previous years. Was the promotion more effective in 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Starbucks’ Red Cup Day came roaring back in 2024, with Thursday, November 14th – the day of the promotion – receiving 42.4% more visits than the recent Thursday daily visit average. And Red Cup Day didn’t just drive visits relative to a regular weekday – the promotion brought a 9.4% lift in overall weekly visits to Starbucks during the week of the event.
The relative visit bump was significantly higher than on Red Cup Day 2023 – when visits on Thursday, November 16th 2023 were only 25.0% higher than the previous five Thursday averages – and even outshined the already strong performance of Red Cup Day 2022.
As usual, Red Cup Day at Starbucks drove a larger visit spike than the launch of the chain’s popular Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL): During the week of the PSL launch, visits rose 9.7% compared to the first week of H2 (July 1st-7th 2024), while Red Cup Day drove a 12.9% foot traffic bump relative to that same baseline.
Nevertheless, the recent data also indicates that the PSL remains a seasonal fan favorite – Starbucks received more weekly visits on the PSL’s arrival week than it did when it launched the holiday menu, when visits increased 6.7% relative to the beginning of H2.
This year’s Red Cup Day followed several weeks of year-over-year (YoY) visit dips at Starbucks, with weekly foot traffic between September 2nd and November 10th 2024 down an average of 4.4% YoY. But the success of the promotion – which drove YoY visit growth for the first time since August – showcases Starbucks’ expertise at driving visits by owning the calendar.
The chain has succeeded in establishing a yearly buzz around its branded cups that drive visits during what would otherwise be an off-season for the chain. And even this year, when consumers seem to be tightening their purse strings and cutting down on discretionary spending ahead of the holidays, Red Cup Day still managed to drive patrons to Starbucks stores in search of holiday beverages and free swag.
How will Starbucks perform throughout the end of 2024?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
How did leading eatertainment chains Dave & Buster’s and Chuck E. Cheese perform in Q3 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Since January 2024, Dave & Buster’s has enjoyed mainly positive YoY visit growth, fueled in part by the eatertainment leader’s continued expansion. In Q2 and Q3 2024, visits to the chain were up 3.2% and 7.3%, respectively. And though YoY foot traffic to the chain slowed down in Q3 2024, a look at Dave & Buster’s monthly visit patterns shows that this may have been due in part to a summer visit peak that was slightly lower – but more extended – than that seen last year.
In 2023, Dave & Buster’s experienced three distinct visit spikes – in March, July, and December – with the restaurant’s 14.6% July visit boost (compared to a monthly average for Jan. ‘23 - Oct. ‘24) preceded by a relatively quiet June (+2.0%). But this year, summer foot traffic began to trend upwards earlier, with both June and July seeing substantial upticks – 13.6% and 13.4%, respectively. (June is in Q2 and so this part of the uptick would not have been included in Q3 foot traffic numbers). And though September, usually a down period for Dave & Buster’s, saw a modest drop in visitors compared to 2023, the chain’s March peak was higher than last year’s.
Digging even deeper into the data shows that even as YoY quarterly visits to Dave & Buster’s remained flat in Q3 2024, mid-week visits to the chain continued to climb. Dave & Buster’s has been investing heavily in mid-week promotions meant to drive traffic during quieter periods, and its efforts are clearly paying off. On Wednesdays, Dave & Buster’s offers a 50% discount on games – and the average number of Wednesday visits to the chain were up 7.0% YoY. Thursdays, too, saw an 11.3% YoY foot traffic increase, likely fueled by diners drawn to Thursday specials as the most intensive part of the work week wound down. (In Q3 2024, July 4th fell on a Thursday, which also generated a significant visit bump – but even when discounting the week of the holiday, Thursday visits were up 6.4% on average.)
Against the backdrop of solid seasonal peaks and impressive mid-week visitation trends, Dave & Buster’s appears poised to enjoy a robust December – another important seasonal milestone for the restaurant. And keep an eye out for the week after Christmas, traditionally Dave & Buster’s busiest week of the year: Last year, the week starting December 25th drove a 65.0% visit spike to the chain compared to a 2023 weekly average.
Speaking of promotions – Chuck E. Cheese is another eatertainment leader that has been finding success by leaning into special deals, making it easier for price-conscious consumers to treat their kids to pizza and fun.
Following a lackluster start to the year, YoY visits to Chuck E. Cheese began trending upwards in May 2024 and have remained elevated ever since. Between June and August 2024, foot traffic to Chuck E. Cheese was up between 20.1% and 26.8% compared to the equivalent period of 2023. And though the pace of visit growth began to taper in September as kids went back to school, visits remained substantially higher than last year.
What’s behind Chuck E. Cheese’s summer flourishing? A look at shifts in loyalty trends at the chain suggests that the success of this year’s Summer Fun Pass may be a big part of the story.
On average, the share of loyal visitors to Chuck E. Cheese – i.e. those frequenting the restaurant at least twice in a month – tends to range between five and seven percent. Last summer, this percentage increased to 8.1%, as parents sought out indoor activities to keep kids occupied when school was out. But this year’s summer loyalty spike – just over 12.0% in both June and July – was significantly higher.
Though Chuck E. Cheese also offered a Summer Fun Pass last year, this year’s deal provided even greater value – including unlimited visits over a two-month period, steep discounts on food, and up to 250 games per day. And the promotion was such a smashing success that Chuck E. Cheese has launched a new unlimited-visit pass meant to make frequent trips to the chain more affordable for families all year round. As the kids’ eatertainment leader continues to revamp its offerings – remodeling locations and adding new activities like indoor trampolines – Chuck E. Cheese appears poised to keep drawing the crowds.
Today’s cautious consumers are always on the lookout for ways to save – and eatertainment chains are paying attention. Will Dave & Buster’s post-Christmas visit spike outperform last year’s? And will Chuck E. Cheese’s new unlimited play model continue to drive traffic throughout Q4?
Follow Placer.ai’s data driven analyses to find out.
Shoppers continue to prioritize value in 2024, offering opportunities for discount and dollar stores to thrive during the upcoming holiday season.
With that in mind, we took a look at visitation metrics – both from 2024 and from previous years – to see how the segment is performing and what the crucial holiday season might hold for discount retailers Dollar Tree and Dollar General.
Discount and dollar stores continue to benefit from an inflation-impacted economy, with category leaders like Dollar Tree and Dollar General continuing to expand their footprints to serve the increasing number of budget-conscious shoppers.
And in large part thanks to the increased store count, visits to Dollar Tree and Dollar General have continued to increase – Q3 2024 visits to the chains were up by 5.3% and 4.8% YoY, respectively. Monthly visits also showed impressive growth, with October 2024 visits up by 7.6% at Dollar Tree and 7.8% at Dollar General. These growth numbers may be slightly lower than the visit increases posted by the category in the past – but the ongoing positive performance by discount & dollar store leaders indicates that the category remains one of the most consistently strong players in the wider retail space.
November and December are typically the most important months for retailers as multiple shopping events – Turkey Wednesday, Black Friday, Christmas Eve Eve, and Boxing Day – drive consumers to the tills. And while many retailers open the holiday season with visit spikes driven by big Black Friday discounts, the visitation patterns look slightly different at discount chains, where prices are already low and discounts are – as their name implies – already applied. So when do these retailers get their holiday visit boosts?
Comparing weekly visit numbers in 2021, 2022, and 2023 to each year’s weekly average reveals differences between the two discount & dollar store leaders. Visits to Dollar Tree gradually increase from early November onward and peak on the last full week before Christmas, likely driven by shoppers flocking to its stores to pick up snacks, gift wrap, and stocking stuffers. Meanwhile, Dollar General’s visits exhibited more stability – although visits were higher than average between Black Friday and Christmas Eve Eve, the increase was much more muted relative to Dollar Tree’s holiday spike. Dollar General’s softer holiday traffic may be due to the expansion of its Dollar General Market concept, which turned many of its stores into destinations for fresh foods – so consumers may be treating Dollar General more like a grocery store and less like a holiday shopping spot.
Previous years’ visitation patterns indicate that the busiest time of the year is still ahead for Dollar General and Dollar Tree. How will these retailers perform during the critical pre-Christmas rush? Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Heading into the Q3 2024 retailer reporting period, most expected Walmart to continue gaining market share from essentials-focused retailers. In our coverage of Walmart’s Q2 2024 update, we highlighted the chain’s significant disruption in the grocery category, driven by everyday low pricing, Walmart+ store delivery orders, store remodeling efforts, an improved selection of premium merchandise, and a broadened marketplace offering. These strategies notably boosted visits among higher-income households earning $100,000 or more annually.
While Walmart did indeed disrupt essentials retailers this quarter, what stood out even more was its impact across discretionary categories. Management reported low-single-digit comparable sales growth in general merchandise, with mid-single-digit unit growth offsetting low-to-mid single-digit price deflation. Categories like home, toys, and hardlines led this growth, complemented by strength in beauty, fashion, and apparel. Walmart’s marketplace played a key role in this success, offering consumers a broader selection of brands and items than in-store. Marketplace sales in beauty, toys, hardlines, and home each grew by 20% year-over-year.
To assess Walmart’s impact on other general merchandise retailers, we analyzed cross-visitation trends. Our data indicates that year-over-year cross-visitation between Walmart and other hardgoods retailers like Best Buy, GameStop, Lowe’s, Home Depot, Hibbett Sports, Sportsman Warehouse, and Big 5—as well as pet retailers like Petco and PetSmart—declined. This suggests a potential shift in consumer behavior, with shoppers consolidating more of their general merchandise purchases at Walmart.
To confirm Walmart's impact on general merchandise, we analyzed visitation trends across several discretionary categories from July to November 2024 (below). With the exceptions of beauty and home furnishings—more on that category in a minute—most categories experienced year-over-year declines throughout much of the August to October quarter. Notably, mid-October brought a temporary improvement in visit trends, coinciding with major promotional events such as Amazon’s Big Deal Days, Walmart’s Holiday Deals Event, and Target’s Circle Week, underscoring how deal-driven consumers are in today’s environment. Following these promotions, shopping activity largely paused until last week, when Black Friday deal announcements began to drive renewed interest.
Home furnishings deserve a closer look. Earlier this year, we noted strong visit trends in housewares retail, and that momentum has largely continued. Mattress retailers, which began the year on a high note, have also maintained positive year-over-year visitation growth in the second half of 2024. Notably, furniture retailers—both value-focused and full-priced—saw year-over-year visitation gains during the quarter, though there was a slight pause in November as consumers waited for Black Friday deals.
These trends align with the third-quarter 2024 update from Williams-Sonoma, where management highlighted improvements in furniture sales at its West Elm and Pottery Barn brands. Additionally, the company cited strength in seasonal items and housewares, suggesting that Walmart’s strong performance in the home category reflects both broader industry trends and its own merchandising improvements. These patterns may also mark the early stages of a new home furnishings cycle as we near the five-year anniversary of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Walmart’s strong performance in discretionary categories serves as a warning to other discretionary retailers to elevate their strategies ahead of the holiday shopping season. With in-store merchandise enhancements and a robust third-party marketplace offering access to over 700 million stock-keeping units (SKUs), Walmart is positioned to be even more competitive this holiday season.
Grocery chains in the United States are increasingly investing in on-site healthcare clinics, transforming their stores into hubs for both food and wellness. While grocery stores have long featured pharmacies and some basic healthcare services like vaccinations, recent years have seen a shift towards more extensive healthcare offerings.
Today, many grocery stores offer a range of services – from primary and urgent care to dental and mental health care. In addition to providing an important community service, grocery-anchored healthcare clinics can boost foot traffic at chains, help health providers reach more patients, and allow shoppers to manage their health and home needs in one convenient trip.
This white paper examines the impact these in-store clinics have on grocery chain visitation patterns and trade area characteristics. Are shoppers more or less likely to make repeat visits to grocery stores with healthcare services? And how does the addition of a clinic affect the demographic profile of a grocery store’s captured market? The report examines these questions and more, offering insights for stakeholders across the grocery and healthcare industries.
Analyzing foot traffic to grocery stores with and without in-store clinics shows the positive impact of these services: Across chains, locations with on-site healthcare offerings drew more visits in H1 2024 than their chain-wide averages.
The Kroger Co., which operates numerous regional banners as well as its own eponymous chain, has been a leader in in-store healthcare services since the early aughts. The company introduced its in-store medical center, The Little Clinic in 2003 – and today operates over 225 Little Clinic locations across its Kroger banner, as well as regional chains Dillons, Jay C Food Stores, Fry’s, and King Soopers.
And in H1 2024, the eight Dillons locations with clinics saw, on average, 93.0% more visits per location than the chain’s banner-wide average. Jay C, which offers two in-store clinics, also saw visits to these venues outpace the H1 2024 banner-wide average by 92.9%. For both chains, relatively small overall footprints may contribute to their outsize visit differences: Indiana-focused Jay C operates just 22 locations, all in the Hoosier State, while Kansas-based Dillons has some 64 locations.
But similar patterns, if somewhat less pronounced, could be observed at Kroger (43.0%), Fry’s (19.2%), and King Soopers (16.5%) – as well as at H-E-B (14.5%), which boasts its own expanding network of in-store clinics.
Analyzing the trade areas of grocery stores with healthcare clinics shows that these services tend to draw more affluent visitors from within the stores’ trade areas.
For some chains, including King Soopers, H-E-B, and Jay C, the clinics are positioned to begin with in areas serving higher-income communities. The median household income (HHI) of King Soopers’ in-store clinic’s potential markets, for example, came in at $92.3K in H1 2024 – significantly above the chain’s overall potential market median HHI of $88.1K. Similarly, the potential markets of H-E-B and Jay C Food Stores with clinics had higher median HHIs than the chains’ overall averages.
And for all three chains, stores with clinics tended to attract visitors from captured markets with even higher median HHIs – showing that within these affluent communities, it is the more well-to-do customers that tend to frequent these venues. (A chain or store’s potential market is obtained by weighting each CBG in its trade area according to the size of the population – thus reflecting the general composition of the community it serves. A chain or store’s captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the business in question – and thus represents the population that actually visits it in practice.)
Other brands, including Fry’s, Kroger, and Dillons, have positioned clinics in stores with potential market median HHIs slightly below chain-wide averages. But within these markets, too, it is the more affluent consumers that are visiting these stores, pushing up the median HHI of their captured markets.
These patterns highlight that, for now, grocery store clinics tend to attract consumers on the upper ends of local income spectrums. This information can be utilized by healthcare professionals and grocery store owners to pinpoint neighborhoods that may be open to grocery-anchored clinics, or to take steps to increase penetration in other areas.
Supermarket giant Kroger is a major player in the world of grocery-anchored healthcare, offering visitors access to pharmacies, clinics, and telehealth options via its grocery stores. What impact has the company’s embrace of healthcare had on visits and loyalty?
An analysis of household compositions across the potential and captured markets of Kroger-owned stores with and without Little Clinic offerings suggests that families with children are extremely receptive to these services.
In H1 2024, Kroger, King Soopers, Fry’s, Jay C, and Dillons all featured captured markets with higher shares of STI: PopStats’ “Households With Children” segment than their potential ones – highlighting the chains’ appeal for families. But the share of parental households in those stores with Little Clinics jumped significantly higher for all five banners.
The share of families with children in King Soopers’ overall captured market stood at 28.3% in H1 2024, higher than the 27.2% in its potential one. But the households with children in the captured markets of King Soopers locations with Little Clinics was significantly higher – 30.6% – and similar patterns emerged at Jay C, Dillons, Kroger, and Fry’s.
This special draw is likely linked to the clinics' focus on family health services like physicals, nutrition plans, and vaccines. The convenience of being able to take care of healthcare, grocery shopping, and pharmacy needs all in one go makes these stores particularly attractive to parents. And this jump in foot traffic shows the strategic advantage of incorporating healthcare services into the retail environment.
Providing essential healthcare services at the supermarket can establish a grocery chain as a crucial part of a shopper's daily life, enhancing visitor loyalty, and helping nurture long-term customer relationships. Indeed, in-store clinics offer a unique opportunity for grocery providers to connect with customers on a level that extends beyond the transactional.
An analysis of several Kroger-branded locations in the Cincinnati metro area showcases the profound impact in-store clinics can have on customer loyalty. In H1 2024, stores with Little Clinics had significantly higher shares of repeat visitors – defined as those making six or more stops at the store during the analyzed period – than those without.
For instance, 36.4% of visitors to a Kroger Marketplace store with an in-store clinic in Harrison, Ohio, frequented the location at least six times during the first half of 2024. But over the same period, only 29.0% of visitors stopped by at least six times to a nearby Kroger location in Cleves, Ohio – just ten miles away. Similarly, 30.7% of visitors to the Beechmont Ave. Kroger Food & Drug location with a clinic visited at least six times in H1 2024, compared to 23.0% for the nearby Ohio Pike Kroger store.
This trend was consistent across the analyzed locations, with those offering in-store clinics attracting significantly higher shares of loyal visitors. These metrics support the value of offering additional services as a draw for frequent visitors, while also providing the clinics themselves with the visitor volume needed to operate profitably.
Texan grocery chain H-E-B is beloved across the state – and though the chain isn’t new to the healthcare scene, it has been doubling down on wellness. In 2022, H-E-B launched H-E-B Wellness, a healthcare platform that offers patrons a variety of medical services, including – as of today – some 12 primary care clinics, many of them inside stores.
H-E-B stores with primary care clinics are helping to cement the grocer’s role as a convenient one-stop for local residents – allowing them to drop in to a nearby location for both daily grocery needs and wellness care.
H-E-B has always placed a premium on community, stepping up to help local residents in times of need. And though the chain as a whole draws an overwhelming majority of its visitors from nearby areas, those with clinics do so even more effectively. In H1 2024, some 83.6% of visitors to H-E-B came from less than 10 miles away. But for locations with primary care clinics, this share increased to 88.0%.
This suggests that wellness services are particularly appealing to nearby residents, strengthening H-E-B’s connection with local consumers even further. And for a grocery store centered on community engagement, the integration of health services into its offerings is proving to be a winning strategy.
H-E-B has been steadily expanding its primary care offerings since it launched the Wellness concept, adding two primary clinics at locations in Cypress, TX and Katy, TX in June 2023. Following the opening of these clinics – which operate Mondays through Fridays – both locations saw marked increases in the share of “Urban Cliff Dwellers” in their weekday captured markets. This STI: Landscape segment group encompasses families both with and without children, earning modest incomes and enjoying middle-class pleasantries.
Between June 2022 - May 2023, the share of “Urban Cliff Dwellers” in the weekday captured markets of the Cypress and Katy locations stood at 9.5% and 7.2%, respectively. But once the stores had clinics in place, those numbers jumped to 12.4% and 11.0%, respectively.
This increase in the stores’ reach among “Urban Cliff Dwellers” immediately following the clinics’ openings suggests that in addition to more affluent consumers, middle-class families also harbor considerable interest in these services. As more retailers continue making inroads into the healthcare sector, they may find similar success in attracting diverse groups of convenience-seeking shoppers.
As grocery stores lean into healthcare, they are transforming into multifaceted hubs that offer both essential health services and everyday shopping needs. Retailers like Kroger and H-E-B are reaping the benefits of boosted foot traffic, higher-income visitors, and strengthened community ties – while offering their shoppers convenience that helps streamline their daily routines.
Walmart, Target, and Costco are three of the most popular retailers in the country, drawing millions of shoppers through their doors each day. Each of these retail giants boasts distinct strengths and strategies that cater to their unique customer bases, allowing them to thrive in a highly competitive market.
This white paper takes a closer look at some of the factors that are helping the three chains flourish. How does Walmart’s positioning as a family-friendly retailer help it drive visits in its more competitive markets? How can Target leverage its reach to drive more loyal visits? And what does the increase in young shoppers frequenting membership warehouse clubs mean for Costco?
We dove into the location analytics to explore these questions further.
Examining monthly visitation patterns for the three retail giants shows Costco’s wholesale club model leading the way with consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth – ranging from 6.1% in stormy January 2024 to 13.3% in June. Family favorite Walmart followed closely behind, seeing YoY foot traffic growth during all but two months, when visits briefly trailed slightly behind 2023 levels before rebounding.
Target, meanwhile, had a slower start to the year, with visits trending below 2023 levels for most of January to April. Over this same period (the three months ending May 2024), Target reported a 3.7% decline in YoY comparable sales. But since then, things have begun to turn around for the chain, with YoY visits rising in May (2.5%), June (8.9%), and July (4.7%). This renewed visit growth into the second half of the year bodes well for the superstore – and the ongoing back-to-school season may well push visits up further as the summer winds down.
For all three chains, Q2 2024’s visit success has likely been bolstered in part by summer deals and intensifying price wars – as the retailers slash prices to woo inflation-weary consumers back to the store.
Over the past few years, consumer behaviors have been changing rapidly in response to shifting economic conditions. This next section explores some of these changes at Walmart, Target, and Costco, to better understand what may be driving these shifts.
One way that consumers have traditionally responded to inflation and other headwinds has been through the adoption of mission-driven shopping – making fewer, but longer, trips to retailers, so that every visit counts. Superstores and wholesale clubs, which offer one-stop shopping experiences, have long been prime destinations for these extended shopping trips. And even during periods when visits have lagged, these retailers have often benefited from extended dwell times – leading to bigger basket sizes.
A look at changes in average dwell times at Walmart and Target suggests that as YoY visits have picked up, dwell times have come down – perhaps reflecting a normalization of consumers’ shopping patterns. With inflation stabilizing and gas prices lower than they were in 2022 and 2023, customers may feel less pressure to consolidate shopping trips than they have in recent years.
In contrast, Costco’s comparatively long dwell times have remained stable over the past several years. The warehouse club’s bulk offerings, plentiful free samples, and inexpensive food court encourage shoppers to spend more time browsing the aisles than they would at other retailers. And even if mission-driven shopping continues to subside, Costco customers will likely keep on making extra-long shopping trips.
While inflation is cooling faster than expected, prices remain high, and new players are stepping into the retail space occupied by Walmart, Target, and Costco – especially dollar stores. Though higher-income customers increasingly rely on the three retail giants for many of their purchases, customers of more modest means are often drawn to the rock-bottom prices offered at dollar stores.
And analyzing the cross-shopping patterns of visitors to Walmart, Target, and Costco shows that growing shares of visitors to the three behemoths also visit Dollar Tree on a regular basis. In Q2 2019, the share of visitors to Walmart, Target, and Costco who frequented Dollar Tree at least three times ranged between 9.8% and 13.7%. But by Q2 2024, that share rose to 16.7%-21.6%.
Dollar Tree is leaning into this increased interest among superstore shoppers. Over the past year, Dollar Tree added some 350 Dollar Tree locations, even as it shuttered nearly 400 Family Dollar stores. And the chain recently acquired the leases of some 170 99 Cents Only Stores – offering Dollar Tree access to a customer base accustomed to buying everything from groceries to household goods. As Dollar Tree continues to grow its footprint and expand its food offerings, the chain will be better positioned than ever to provide a real challenge to Walmart, Target, and Costco.
Still, the three retail giants each have unique offerings that distinguish them from dollar stores. This next section examines what sets Walmart, Target, and Costco apart – and how they can continue to strengthen their competitive edge.
With competition on the rise, Walmart, Target, and Costco must display agility in navigating an ever-evolving market landscape. This section dives into the data for each chain’s more successful metro areas to see what factors are helping them outperform nationwide averages – and what metrics the retailers can harness to try to replicate these results nationwide.
Target recently expanded its Target Circle Rewards program, rolling out three new tiers for its 100 million members. And this focus on loyalty has proven successful for the chain. Demographic and visitation data reveal a strong correlation between the median household incomes (HHIs) of Target locations’ captured markets across CBSAs (core-based statistical areas), and their share of loyal visitors in Q2 2024: CBSAs where Target locations’ captured markets had higher median HHIs also tended to draw more repeat monthly visitors.
Target’s captured markets in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, LA CBSA, for example, featured a median HHI of $89.8K in Q2 2024 – and 48.0% of the chain’s LA visitors frequented a Target at least twice a month during the quarter. Target stores in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI CBSA, where the chain’s captured markets had a median HHI of $88.7K in Q2 2024, also had a loyalty rate of 48.0%.
Target generally attracts a more affluent audience than Walmart. And even as the superstore slashes prices to attract more price-conscious consumers, the retailer is also taking steps likely to enhance its popularity among higher-income households. In April 2024, Target debuted a paid membership tier within its loyalty program offering perks like same-day delivery for a fee. Maintaining and expanding these premium offerings will be key for Target as it seeks to attract more affluent customers and replicate its high-performing results in CBSAs nationwide.
The persistent inflation of the past few years, while challenging for some retailers, has also created new opportunities – particularly for wholesalers. Membership warehouse clubs, including Costco, are gaining popularity among younger shoppers, a cohort often looking for new ways to stretch their more limited budgets. An October 2023 survey revealed that nearly 15% of respondents aged 18 to 24 and 17% of those aged 25 to 30 shop at Costco.
A closer look at some of Costco’s best-performing CBSAs for YoY visit-per-location growth highlights the significance of these younger shoppers: In H1 2024, the company’s YoY visit-per-location growth was strongest in areas with higher-than-average shares of young urban singles.
For example, the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA CBSA experienced visit-per-location growth of 10.4% YoY in H1 2024, while the nationwide average stood at 7.9%. And the CBSA’s share of Young Urban Singles, defined by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset as “singles starting their careers in trade and service jobs,” was 12.1%, well above Costco’s nationwide average of 7.3%.
Walmart is a one-stop shop for everything from affordable groceries to clothing to home furnishings, making it especially popular among families. The retailer actively courts this segment with baby offerings designed to meet the needs of both kids and parents, virtual offerings in the metaverse, and collectible toys.
And visitation data reveals a connection between the extent of different Walmart locations’ YoY visit growth and the share of households with children in their captured markets.
In H1 2024, nationwide visits to Walmart increased by 4.1% YoY, while the share of households with children in the chain’s overall captured market hovered just under the nationwide baseline. But in some CBSAs where Walmart outpaced this nationwide growth, the retail giant also proved especially adept at attracting parental households – outpacing relevant statewide baselines.
In Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA, for example, Walmart experienced 5.0% YoY visit growth in H1 2024 – while the share of households with children in the chain’s local captured market stood 7% above the Massachusetts state average. And in Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI, where Walmart’s share of parental households outpaced the Minnesota state average by an even wider 15% margin, the retailer saw impressive 7.3% YoY visit growth. This pattern repeated itself in other metro areas, suggesting that there may be a correlation between local Walmart locations’ visit growth and their relative ability to draw households with children.
Walmart can continue solidifying its market position by leaning into its family-oriented offerings and expanding its footprint in regions with growing populations of young families.
Walmart, Target, and Costco all experienced YoY visit growth in the final months of H1 2024, with Costco leading the way. And though the three chains still face considerable challenges, each one brings unique strengths to the table. By continuously innovating and responding to changing market conditions, Walmart, Target, and Costco can not only overcome obstacles but also leverage them to reinforce their market positions and drive continued growth.
The first Lollapalooza – a four-day music festival – took place in 1991. Chicago’s Grant Park became the event’s permanent home (at least in the United States) in 2005, drawing thousands of revelers and music fans to the park each year.
This year, the festival once again demonstrated its powerful impact on the city. On August 1st, 2024, visits to Grant Park surged by 1,313.2% relative to the YTD daily average, as crowds converged on the park to see Chappell Roan’s much-anticipated performance. And during the first three days of the event, the event drew significantly more foot traffic than in 2023 – with visits up 18.9% to 35.9% compared to the first three days of last year’s festival (August 3rd to 5th, 2023).
Lollapalooza led to a dramatic spike in visits to Grant Park – and it also attracted a different type of visitor compared to the rest of the year.
Analyzing Grant Park’s captured market with Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive dataset reveals that Lollapalooza attendees are more likely to belong to the “Young Professionals” and “Ultra Wealthy Families” segment groups than the typical Grant Park visitor.
By contrast, the “Near-Urban Diverse Families” segment group, comprising middle-class diverse families living in or near cities, made up only 6.5% of visitors during the festival, compared to 12.0% during the rest of the year.
Additionally, visitors during Lollapalooza came from areas with higher HHIs than both the nationwide baseline of $76.1K and the average for park visitors throughout the year. Understanding the demographic profile of visitors to the park during Lollapalooza can help planners and city officials tailor future events to these segment groups – or look for ways to make the festival accessible to a wider range of music lovers.
Lollapalooza’s impact on Chicago extended beyond the boundaries of Grant Park, with nearby hotels seeing remarkable surges in foot traffic. The Congress Plaza Hotel on South Michigan Avenue witnessed a staggering 249.1% rise in visits during the week of July 29, 2024, compared to the YTD visit average. And Travelodge on East Harrison Street saw an impressive 181.8% increase. These spikes reflect the festival’s draw not just for locals but for out-of-town visitors who fill hotels across the city.
The North Michigan Avenue retail corridor also enjoyed a significant increase in foot traffic during the festival, with visits on Thursday, August 1st 56.0% higher than the YTD Thursday visit average. On Friday, August 2nd, visits to the corridor were 55.7% higher than the Friday visit average. These numbers highlight Lollapalooza’s role in driving economic activity across Chicago, as festival-goers venture beyond the park to explore the city’s vibrant retail and hospitality offerings.
City parks often serve as community hubs, and Flushing Meadows Corona Park in Queens, NY, has been a major gathering point for New Yorkers. The park hosted one of New York’s most beloved summer concerts – Governors Ball – which moved from Governors Island to Flushing Meadows in 2023.
During the festival (June 9th -11th, 2024), musicians like Post Malone and The Killers drew massive crowds to the park, with visits soaring to the highest levels seen all year. On June 9th, the opening day of the festival, foot traffic in the park was up 214.8% compared to the YTD daily average, and at its height, on June 8th, the festival drew 392.7% more visits than the YTD average.
The park also hosted other big events this summer – a July 21st set by DMC helped boost visits to 185.1% above the YTD average. And the Hong Kong Dragon Boat Festival on August 3rd and 4th led to major visit boosts of 221.4% and 51.6%, respectively.
These events not only draw large crowds, but also highlight the park’s role as a space where cultural and civic life can find expression, flourish, and contribute to the health of local communities.
Analyzing changes in Flushing Meadows Corona Park’s trade area size offers insight into how far people are willing to travel for these events. During Governors Ball, for example, the park’s trade area ballooned to 254.5 square miles, showing the festival's wide appeal. On July 20th, by contrast, when the park hosted several local bands and DJs, the trade area was a much more modest 57.0 square miles.
Summer events drive community engagement, economic activity, and civic pride. Cities that invest in their parks and event hubs, fostering lively and inclusive spaces, can create lasting value for both residents and visitors, enriching the cultural and social life of urban areas.
For more data-driven civic stories, visit Placer.ai.
