.svg)
.avif)
The bifurcated consumer trends established in the second half of 2025 have persisted. While higher-income shoppers maintain relatively stable spending habits, lower- and middle-income households continue to feel the squeeze on essential categories like groceries and fuel. These consumers have become increasingly selective and price-sensitive, actively pivoting away from traditional mid-market chains in favor of discount retailers and value-oriented brands. Because affordability remains a core focus, average households are spreading their visits across a wider number of non-discretionary stores to hunt for deals. For example, our data shows that grocery visit growth is currently being driven by low- and middle-income households, as elevated food costs necessitate more frequent, budget-conscious trips.
However, despite this intense focus on everyday value, it would be a mistake to count out the discretionary sector, where consumer visits have also been mostly positive year-over-year (YoY) since the start of 2026. Despite weather-driven volatility, we continue to see healthy demand for discretionary categories as consumers start to put their tax refunds to work, actively seeking affordable indulgences and high-end brands at a discount.
E-commerce fulfillment centers are also seeing robust activity. Excluding a brief weather-related slump in late January, visits to these facilities are growing at a high-single to low-double-digit clip.
This surge in logistics activity is being driven by a perfect storm of consumer behavior and retail strategy: value-seeking shoppers, massive supply chain investments from giants like Walmart and Target, and the rise of frictionless "agentic" and social commerce. Furthermore, record-high product returns are forcing these centers to process a massive wave of reverse logistics, keeping facility utilization incredibly high.
As delayed tax refunds finally hit consumer bank accounts in the months ahead, we expect this strong e-commerce and fulfillment momentum to continue.
Manufacturing data has been highly volatile in early 2026. Placer.ai’s Industrial Manufacturing Index – which measures physical visits to manufacturing facilities across a wide range of verticals – showed an ebb and flow in the early weeks of the year. Severe winter storms heavily weighed on facility visits in late January, followed by a clear rebound in February.
This physical, on-the-ground improvement aligns with the latest macroeconomic indicators. According to the most recent ISM report, the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the second consecutive month in February, with the PMI registering a solid 52.4. Crucially, this growth is being driven by strong forward-looking demand, as the ISM New Orders Index remained firmly in expansion territory at 55.8. Ultimately, while underlying production and new orders show sustained momentum, unpredictable weather patterns continue to create short-term fluctuations in actual facility operations.
Looking ahead, volatility will likely be the baseline expectation for both the retail and manufacturing sectors throughout 2026. Unpredictable weather events, shifting supply chain dynamics, and the complexities of lapping 2025's macroeconomic hurdles will continue to create week-to-week fluctuations in physical foot traffic and industrial output.
Yet, beneath this turbulence lies a remarkably stable foundation: the American consumer. Despite the ongoing pressures of inflation and depleted household savings, shoppers remain incredibly resilient. They are highly strategic – pinching pennies on daily essentials and heavily utilizing value channels – precisely so they can continue to fund discretionary spending and lifestyle upgrades. The market may be volatile, but the 2026 consumer is proving that they are willing and able to spend when the value proposition is right.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
With its recent IPO, Bob’s Discount Furniture has officially entered a new chapter, stepping onto the public stage at a time when the home furnishings sector continues to face macroeconomic pressures. Yet despite these challenges, Bob’s has demonstrated notable momentum. This AI-powered data analysis takes a closer look at Bob’s performance, examining traffic trends, demographic positioning, and cross-shopping behavior to better understand what’s driving the company’s success.
Bob’s continued expansion supported year-over-year (YoY) visit increases throughout 2025 – but growth was not driven by footprint alone. Visits per location to the chain also climbed by 1.8% in 2025, indicating that existing stores captured incremental demand alongside new openings.
Analysis of Bob’s and the broader home furnishings category suggests that a favorable mix of value-oriented and affluent shoppers may be supporting the brand’s growth.
In 2025, the median household income of Bob’s captured market was $89.0K – below the category median of $92.5K, yet above the nationwide median of $79.6K. A similar pattern emerged when examining Bob’s audience by income groups. Among households earning under $100K and those earning over $150K, Bob’s share fell between the category benchmark and the national baseline.
This positioning suggests that while Bob’s resonates strongly with value-seeking consumers, its appeal is not limited to lower-income households – which could reflect the strength of its "Good, Better, Best" assortment strategy. As value-prioritization has gained traction across income levels, Bob’s appears to be attracting shoppers who are price-conscious yet still maintain discretionary spending power – a combination that is especially advantageous in a bigger-ticket category like furniture.
Reinforcing its position as a primary destination for furniture shoppers appears to be another factor fueling Bob’s growth.
AI-based location intelligence reveals that in 2025, the share of Bob’s visitors who also visited other major home furnishings chains declined compared to 2024. The shift was consistent across several key competitors, suggesting that fewer shoppers felt compelled to compare offerings at other chains before visiting Bob's Discount Furniture.
In a category where consumers frequently comparison-shop, declining cross-visitation may signal that Bob’s relaxed in-store environment – featuring the “Little Bob” sock-puppet and complementary cafés – is resonating with shoppers, reducing the incentive to look elsewhere.
These insights underscore Bob’s differentiated strategy within a volatile retail landscape. By combining disciplined expansion with broad cross-income appeal and brand loyalty, Bob’s is building both growth and resilience as it enters its public chapter.
Will Bob’s continue to find success in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Traffic to Darden banners remained relatively stable in 2025, with the company seeing an average increase of 1.2% in overall visits coupled with a slight dip of 0.3% in average visits per venue across its brands. Average visits per venue improved towards the end of the year relative to the annual average, growing 1.5% YoY in Q4 2025 – likely due to the closure of several Bahama Breeze restaurants in 2025, part of the company's plans to sunset the banner entirely by April 2026.
Analyzing traffic by banner points to clear resilience at the top of the market, with upscale casual and premium brands such as Yard House and Ruth's Chris Steakhouse generally showing the strongest and most consistent traffic growth. This pattern suggests that higher-income consumers remain relatively insulated and willing to spend, even amid broader volatility.
At the same time, LongHorn Steakhouse, one of Darden’s largest brands, also emerged as a standout performer, delivering steady positive traffic across multiple months. Given its scale within the portfolio, LongHorn likely made an outsized contribution to Darden’s overall positive traffic trends, helping to offset softness in other chains and reinforcing the company’s momentum.
Same-store YoY visit trends in recent months are very close to overall visit trends, suggesting that Darden’s traffic trends are largely same-store-driven rather than expansion-driven, with little evidence that unit growth is materially distorting overall traffic trends. Premium brands continue to perform well, and LongHorn is generating steady same-store growth across its large footprint, suggesting that Darden’s results are being driven by real consumer demand – especially among higher-income diners.
Darden’s results suggest that performance is being driven less by sheer scale and more by brand positioning, with concepts that offer either premium experiences or strong value perception (like LongHorn) capturing disproportionate demand. As consumer budgets remain tight, growth is likely to concentrate further in brands that clearly justify their price point – leaving middle-of-the-road concepts increasingly pressured to sharpen their value proposition or differentiate more meaningfully.
For up-to-date restaurant foot traffic, visit our free Industry Trends tool.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
.avif)
Shopping centers continued their growth streak in February 2026, with visits to all three formats – indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls – up year-over-year (YoY). After leading traffic gains in 2025, indoor malls took a back seat once again to open-air centers which led the category with a 7.3% YoY increase in February visits. Importantly, outlet malls followed closely behind with foot traffic up 7.2% YoY, after increasing 3.5% YoY in January 2026 – suggesting that the format is regaining momentum after its recent lull.
Even more notable is that when isolating the peak mall hours (11 AM to 8 PM), outlet malls led all formats in year-over-year visit growth across every daypart – 11 AM to 2 PM, 2 PM to 5 PM, and 5 PM to 8 PM. And while evening gains were strongest across all mall types, outlet malls posted the most significant increase during those hours.
This evening momentum may reflect a broader shift in how outlet centers are positioning themselves. Rather than serving solely as transactional shopping destinations, some are expanding their food and experiential offerings to encourage longer, more social visits. Recent examples include the addition of a craft beer truck at San Marcos Premium Outlets in Texas and the debut of a highly anticipated Japanese-Peruvian concept restaurant at Sawgrass Mills in Florida, which are likely drawing more leisure-oriented visitors to the centers.
Outlet mall's traffic softness in recent years likely reflected intensifying competition for value-driven apparel from off-price retailers and resale channels, which siphoned off some of the bargain-focused demand that traditionally fueled outlet visits. But if outlet malls can successfully differentiate through dining and experiential offerings – extending visits beyond purely transactional trips – they may be better positioned for a stronger 2026 as they compete on experience as well as price.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
With prices still elevated and consumer sentiment down significantly from last year, appetite for savings is stronger than ever. But as shoppers pull back on non-essentials, how are discretionary-oriented value chains like Five Below and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet holding up?
In its most recent reported quarter (ending November 1, 2025), Ollie’s delivered a 3.3% increase in same-store sales, driven by a mid-single-digit rise in transactions even as average ticket declined slightly. Five Below posted even stronger comp growth (+14.3%), fueled by both higher transaction counts and larger baskets.
And both chains saw solid year-over-year (YoY) overall traffic growth during the final months of 2025 – including the all-important holiday season – and into 2026. This performance suggests that even in a cautious consumer environment, demand for discretionary value remains resilient.
Customer loyalty is also increasing at both chains. For Ollie’s, which enjoys a slightly higher share of repeat visits, loyalty – fueled by its constantly shifting inventory of closeout merchandise – is further reinforced by the growing Ollie’s Army rewards program.
For Five Below, the gains appear to reflect the strength of its value positioning and evolving mix of affordable, fun indulgences – from seasonal décor to trendy toys – that create a steady cadence of newness and encourage frequent visits, even without a formal loyalty program.
And as both chains continue to grow, sustaining this repeat engagement will be critical to supporting comps and maximizing productivity across an expanding store base.
With traffic growth supported by a growing base of loyal customers, the discount segment appears well-positioned to maintain its edge into 2026. But how much runway remains before expansion begins to dilute store productivity?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Dollar General and Dollar Tree have both been thriving, delivering positive same-store comps for several quarters in a row even as they continue expanding their footprints. But how long can both keep winning? As the two chains grow, will the overlap between them begin to pressure performance?
Despite intensifying competition from mass merchants like Walmart, the data suggests that Dollar General and Dollar Tree still have meaningful runway for growth. Both retailers are expanding their footprints while maintaining traffic at existing stores – a sign of robust demand.
Dollar General, now a staple grocery destination for many households, posted mid- to high-single-digit same-store traffic gains between September 2025 and January 2026, even as it deepened its expansion into rural America. Meanwhile, Dollar Tree, which added more than 300 stores over the past year, maintained flat to modestly positive same-store traffic trends.
As price-conscious consumers prioritize value, overall demand for dollar stores appears to be expanding rather than simply shifting between banners.
Visitor behavior at the two chains helps explain why there is room for both to continue expanding. In addition to serving different geographies – Dollar General maintains a stronger presence in rural communities and in the eastern United States, while Dollar Tree has greater penetration in the West – the banners also fulfill different shopping missions.
As the chart below shows, 25.0% of Dollar General visitors in 2025 were frequent shoppers, defined as four or more visits in an average month, compared to just 9.2% at Dollar Tree. Average dwell time also diverged, with shoppers spending 20.0 minutes per visit at Dollar General versus 13.6 minutes at Dollar Tree.
Those patterns suggest that Dollar General functions as a routine essentials stop embedded in weekly shopping habits – a consumables-driven positioning that appears to be strengthening as the company expands large-format stores and invests further in fresh food offerings.
Dollar Tree, by contrast, plays a more targeted role, capturing shorter, mission-driven trips often tied to seasonal goods, party supplies, or discretionary bargains. And as it leans further into higher-ticket discretionary items through its multi-price 3.0 format – while also expanding its consumables assortment – the chain is reinforcing its treasure-hunt appeal while gradually becoming more relevant for routine trips.
All in all, the data points to a category that is expanding rather than consolidating. Consistent same-store visit growth, ongoing store expansion, and differentiated shopping behavior all suggest that Dollar General and Dollar Tree are thriving side by side – serving distinct missions within a shared value-driven ecosystem.
For more data-driven retail insights, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The grocery industry has navigated unprecedented challenges in recent years – from pandemic-driven shifts in consumer behavior and supply chain disruptions to rising costs, labor shortages, and increased operational demands. In the face of these hurdles, the category has been pushed to innovate, adapting everything from product selections to shopping formats to meet changing consumer expectations.
But within the grocery industry, some segments resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. This white paper dives into the data to explore two segments that have been leading category-wide visit growth for some time: specialty and fresh format stores, which focus on produce, organic foods, and culturally specific items (think Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and H Mart, to name a few), and value grocery chains like Aldi, WinCo Foods, and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market. Location analytics show shoppers are increasingly drawn to these two grocery store types, a shift that has the potential to reshape the grocery landscape.
How did value and specialty grocery chains perform in Q3 2024 in comparison to traditional supermarkets like Kroger, Albertsons, and H-E-B? How does visitor behavior vary between the three grocery segments, and what differences can be observed in the demographic and psychographic make-ups of their trade areas? The report explores these questions and more below.
The grocery industry has performed well over the past few months, with steady weekly year-over-year (YoY) visit increases throughout Q3 2024. During the week of July 1st, the segment saw a 4.6% YoY foot traffic boost, likely driven by shoppers loading up on ingredients for Independence Day barbecues and picnics. And after tapering somewhat in early August, visits picked up again in September, with YoY increases ranging from 2.0% to 2.9% throughout the month. This positive growth is a good sign for the segment – which has experienced more than its fair share of challenges over the past few years.
Though the grocery category as a whole is thriving, a closer look at different segments within the industry reveals that some are seeing more significant growth than others.
Indeed, digging deeper into grocery visits throughout Q3 2024 reveals that much of the industry’s growth is being driven by specialty and fresh format stores and value grocery chains. The two segments offer markedly different shopping experiences: Specialty chains tend to emphasize harder-to-find ingredients and fresh produce – sometimes even at higher price points than traditional grocery stores – while value grocery stores focus on affordability. But both categories are experiencing outsize visit growth in 2024, highlighting consumers’ dual interest in both quality and value.
In July and August 2024, traditional supermarkets, specialty grocers, and value chains all experienced positive YoY visit growth. But while traditional grocery stores saw a 3.1% increase in July and just a 0.9% uptick in August, value and specialty chains saw YoY growth ranging from 4.7% to 7.7% during the two months. In September 2024, YoY visits to traditional grocery stores fell by 0.5%, while value and specialty chains saw 5.0% and 5.2% increases, respectively. For today’s consumer, it seems, savings are key – but specialty offerings also resonate strongly.
Today’s grocery shoppers are increasingly embracing specialty grocery options – and analyzing consumer driving habits to grocery stores shows that they are willing to go the extra mile to reach them.
Breaking down grocery visits by distance traveled reveals that just 18.5% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery chains came from less than one mile away in Q3 2024 – compared to 23.9% for traditional grocery stores and 23.2% for value chains. Similarly, 31.3% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery stores originated from one to three miles away, compared to 34.7% and 34.5% for the other analyzed segments.
On the flip side, some 26.4% of visits to specialty and fresh format stores were made by people traveling at least seven miles to do their shopping – compared to 22.7% and 21.4% for traditional and value chains, respectively. Specialty grocery operators can account for this difference, locating stores in areas accessible to geographically dispersed audiences eager to shop their unique offerings.
And a look at changes in visitor behavior at three key specialty chains – Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and Great Wall Supermarket – shows that even as these brands expand their footprints, customers are increasingly willing to travel the distance to visit them. Between 2019 and 2024, all three chains saw a marked increase in the share of visitors traveling over seven miles to shop their offerings. .
Asian grocery chain Great Wall Supermarket, a relatively small regional chain with some 22 locations across eight states, saw the most significant increase in visits from afar over the analyzed period. In Q3 2024, 32.3% of visits to the chain originated from seven or more miles away, up from 28.3% in Q3 2019. Ranked America’s Best Supermarket by Newsweek in 2024, the chain’s wide selection of everything from seafood to fresh produce has made it a hit among Asian food aficionados – and as the supermarket’s reputation grows, so does its draw among customers living further away from its venues.
Consumer favorite Trader Joe’s and organic grocery chain Sprouts Farmers Market also grew their shares of long-distance visits between 2019 and 2024 – no small feat for the two chains, given their expansion over the past several years.
This travel distance snapshot serves as a reminder of the unique role played by specialty grocery stores that offer their customers unique shopping experiences, premium or organic products, and culturally specific items. Shoppers will go out of their way to travel to these stores – and even as they expand and become more readily accessible, their growing popularity makes them ever-more attractive destinations for customers coming from further away.
While visitors to specialty grocery chains often travel long distances for unique offerings, cost-conscious consumers at value stores exhibit other behaviors that differentiate them from traditional and specialty grocery shoppers.
The rising cost of living has pushed the discount retail segment into overdrive – and value grocery chains are also benefiting. The category has flourished in recent years, with many bargain-oriented grocery chains adding new stores at a rapid clip to meet burgeoning consumer demand.
Like visitors to specialty grocery chains, value grocery shoppers demonstrate segment-specific behaviors that reflect their preferences and habits. And perhaps most strikingly, foot traffic data reveals that these shoppers tend to stay longer in-store than visitors to traditional and specialty grocery chains.
In Q3 2024, 26.5% of visits to value grocery chains lasted longer than 30 minutes, compared to 23.4% for traditional grocery chains and 23.7% for specialty and fresh format chains. This suggests that these stores attract shoppers who take their time and carefully consider price points, looking for the best value for their dollar – a need that the chains they frequent seem to be meeting.
Given the tremendous success of the value grocery space in recent years, it may come as no surprise that some traditional supermarkets are getting in on the action by opening or expanding discount banners of their own. How do such off-shoot banners impact these grocers’ reach?
Cult-favorite Texas grocery chain H-E-B opened the first branch of its value banner, Joe V’s Smart Shop, in 2010. The discount arm currently includes 11 stores – mainly in the Houston area – with several new stores opening, or in planning stages, in Dallas.
And foot traffic data shows that Joe V's attracts mission-driven shoppers who make less frequent but significantly longer trips than visitors to traditional grocery stores. In Q3 2024, the average visit duration at Joe V’s was 37.8 minutes, compared to just 26.8 minutes at H-E-B – a full 11 minute difference. At the same time, while 38.5% of Q3 visits to H-E-B were made by customers frequenting the chain, on average, at least four times a month, just 11.8% of visits to Joe V’s were made by visitors reaching that threshold.
Joe V’s is also more likely than H-E-B to attract parental households, with 36.8% of its captured market made up of households with children – significantly higher than H-E-B’s 32.0%.
Together, these data points paint a picture of the average Joe V’s shopper: cost-conscious, likely to have children, and inclined to carefully plan shopping trips to maximize savings and cut down on grocery runs. This suggests that they are mission-driven and focused on stocking up rather than running out to grab ingredients as the need arises.
Major grocery store operators often operate a variety of store types at different price points to appeal to as many shoppers as possible, and Hy-Vee is no exception. The regional grocery favorite launched a discount chain, Dollar Fresh, in 2018 and currently operates 25 stores under that banner, aiming to attract middle-class, cost-conscious shoppers.
Using Experian’s Mosaic dataset to analyze Dollar Fresh’s trade area reveals that the chain’s captured market features significantly higher shares of lower-middle-class family consumers than its potential one – highlighting its special draw for these shoppers. (A chain’s potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to population size, thus reflecting the overall makeup of the chain’s trade area. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base. Comparing a chain’s captured market to its potential one can serve as a helpful gauge of the brand’s success at attracting key audience segments.)
In Q3 2024, the “Pastoral Pride” family segment represented 11.4% of Dollar Fresh’s captured market, compared to just 5.3% of its potential market. This over-representation of lower-middle-class consumers from small towns in Dollar Fresh’s captured market indicates that the chain is especially effective at drawing customers that belong to this segment. Though Hy-Vee’s captured market also boasted a higher share of this demographic than its potential one in Q3, the difference was much smaller – and the chain’s overall reach among these consumers was more limited.
In contrast, Hy-Vee excels at attracting “Flourishing Families” – affluent, middle-aged families and couples – who made up 10.3% of the supermarket’s captured market in Q3 2024. Dollar Fresh’s captured market, on the other hand, featured a smaller share of this segment than its potential one – showing that the discount chain is of less interest to these consumers. So while Hy-Vee tends to appeal to higher-income families with more spending flexibility, value-conscious shoppers have been making their way to Dollar Fresh.
This audience segmentation analysis shows how value offerings help grocery chains attract wider audiences – and highlights the advantage of operating multiple store types to appeal to a broader range of shoppers.
People will always need access to a variety of fresh foods – ensuring that grocery stores and supermarkets continue to play a vital role in in the retail landscape. And while the category as a whole has continued to thrive even in today’s challenging environment, specialty and value grocery chains resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. As grocery retailers diversify their formats, those aligning with consumer preferences for affordability, uniqueness, and quality are well-positioned for continued growth.
Malls have come a long way since their introduction to the world in the 1950s. These gleaming retail hubs promised shoppers a taste of the American dream, offering a third place for teens, families, and everyone in between to shop, socialize, and hang out.
And though malls have faced challenges in recent years, as e-commerce and pandemic-induced store closures led to shifts in consumer habits, the outlook is brightening. Malls have embraced innovation, incorporating enhanced entertainment, dining, and experiential offerings that attract a diverse range of visitors and redefine their purpose.
This white paper takes a look at the recent location intelligence metrics to gain an understanding of the changes taking place at malls across the country – including both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers. The report explores questions like: Why do malls experience foot traffic bumps during the summer months? How much of an impact do movie theaters have on mall visits, and what can mall operators learn from the Mall of America and American Dream malls’ focus on experiential entertainment?
Mall visitation is highly seasonal, with strikingly consistent monthly visitation patterns. Each year, visits decline somewhat in February, pick up in March, and begin to trend upward again in May – before peaking again in August. Then, after a slower September and October, foot traffic skyrockets during the holiday season, spiking dramatically in December.
And while these trends follow similar patterns every year, comparing monthly visits throughout 2019, 2023, and 2024 (YTD) to each year’s own January baseline shows that this seasonality is growing more pronounced - especially for indoor malls.
Following a lackluster 2023, visits to both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers peaked higher in March 2024 than in 2019. And this summer, indoor malls in particular saw a much larger visit boost than in previous years. In August 2024, for example, visits to indoor malls were 27.3% higher than in January 2024 – a substantially higher baseline jump than that seen either in August 2019 (17.0%) or in August 2023 (12.0%). And though open-air shopping centers experienced a smaller summer visit boost, they too saw a bigger bump this year than in 2019 or in 2023.
But malls aren’t just seeing larger visit spikes this year relative to their January baselines – they are also drawing bigger crowds than they did in 2023.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers both experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. Indoor malls saw the largest YoY foot traffic boost (3.7%) – perhaps owing in part to 2024’s record-breaking heat, which led many patrons to seek refuge in air conditioned spaces. Still, open-air shopping centers, which feature plenty of air conditioned stores and restaurants, also enjoyed a YoY visit boost of 2.8% during the analyzed period.
Malls’ strong summer baseline and YoY foot traffic growth built upon the strong performance seen during most of 2024 so far, leading to the question: What is driving malls’ positive momentum? We delve into some of the factors propelling these changes below.
One offering that continues to play a significant role in driving foot traffic to malls is on-site movie theaters. Summer blockbuster releases, in particular, help attract crowds to theaters, in turn boosting overall visits to malls.
Much like malls, movie theaters have also proven their resilience over the past few years. While pundits fretted about the theater’s impending death, production houses were busy releasing blockbuster after blockbuster and shattering box-office records at an impressive clip. And while 2023 was certainly a banner year for blockbuster summer releases, 2024 has had its fair share of stunning box-office successes, leading to major visit boosts at theaters across the country.
Analyzing visits to malls with and without movie theaters highlights the impact of these summer Hollywood hits. Between June and August 2024, malls with theaters saw bigger visit boosts compared to a monthly year-to-date (YTD) average than malls without – an effect observed both for indoor malls and for open-air shopping centers.
For both mall types, the gap between centers with and without movie theaters was most pronounced in July 2024, likely owing to the release of Inside Out 2 in mid-June as well as the July releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twister. But in June and August 2024, too, centers with movie theaters sustained particularly impressive visit boosts – a solid sign that movie theaters and malls remain a winning combination.
Malls with movie theaters also drew higher shares of evening visits (7:00 PM - 10:00 PM) this summer than those without. Between June and August 2024, for example, evening outings accounted for 22.9% of visits to open-air shopping centers with movie theaters – compared to 18.2% of visits to centers without theaters. Indoor malls with theaters also saw a larger share of evening visits than those without – 18.1% compared to 15.0%.
This increase in evening traffic is likely driven by major summer movie releases and the flexibility of summer schedules, with many visitors – including families – taking advantage of late-night outings without the concern of early wakeup calls. These summer visitation trends benefit both theaters and malls, opening up opportunities for increased sales through concessions, promotions, and evening deals that attract a more relaxed and engaged crowd.
Analyzing the demographics of malls’ captured markets also reveals that centers with movie theaters are more likely to attract certain family-oriented segments than those without. (A mall’s captured market consists of the mall’s trade areas – the census block groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to the mall – weighted according to each CBG’s actual share of visits to the mall.)
Between June and August 2024, for example, 14.2% of the captured markets of open-air shopping centers with movie theaters were made up of “Wealthy Suburban Families” – compared to 9.7% for open-air shopping centers without theaters.
Indoor malls saw a similar pattern with regard to “Near-Urban Diverse Families”: Middle class families living in and around cities made up 9.0% of the captured markets of indoor malls with movie theaters, compared to 7.1% of the captured markets of those without.
This increase in foot traffic from middle-class and wealthy family segments can be a boon for malls and retail tenants – driving up food court profits and bolstering sales at stores with kid-friendly offerings.
Malls have long positioned themselves as destinations for summer entertainment as well as retail therapy, holding – in addition to back to school sales – events like Fourth of July celebrations and even indoor basketball and arena football games. And during the summer months, malls attract visitors from further away.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls drew 18.2% of visitors from 30+ miles away – compared to just 16.7% during the first five months of the year. Similarly, open-air shopping centers drew 19.6% of visits from 30+ miles away during the summer, compared to 17.1% between January and May.
Extended daylight hours, summer trips away from home, and more free time are likely among the contributors to the summer draw for long-distance mall visitors. But in addition to their classic offerings – from movie theaters to stores and food courts – malls have also invested in other kinds of unique experiences to attract visitors. This next section takes a look at two mega-malls winning at the visitation game, to see what sets them apart.
The Minneapolis-based Mall of America opened in 1992, redefining the limits of what a mall could offer. The mall boasts hundreds of stores, games, rides, and more – and is constantly expanding its attractions, cementing its status as a top destination for retail and entertainment.
Between June and August 2024, Mall of America experienced a 13.8% YoY visit increase, far outperforming the 3.7% visit boost seen by the wider indoor mall space. And as a major tourist attraction – the mall hosted a series of Olympic-themed events throughout the summer – it also drew 41.6% of visits from 30+ miles away. This share of distant visitors was significantly higher than that seen at the mall during the first five months of 2024, and more than double the segment-wide summer average of 18.2%.
The Mall of America also seems to be attracting more upper-middle-class families during the summer than other indoor malls: Between June and August 2024, some 18.0% of Mall of America’s captured market consisted of “Upper Suburban Diverse Family Households” – a segment including upper-middle-class suburbanites – compared to just 11.1% for the wider indoor mall segment. The increased presence of these families at the Mall of America may be driven by the variety of events offered during the summer.
In 2019, the American Dream Mall in New Jersey opened and became the second-largest mall in the country. Since the mall opened its doors, it has also focused on blending retail and entertainment to draw in as wide a range of visitors as possible – and summer 2024 was no exception.
The mall hosted the Arena Football League Championship, ArenaBowl XXXIII, on Friday, July 19th. The event successfully attracted a higher share of visitors traveling from 30+ miles away compared to the average summer Friday – 35.4% compared to 25.7%.
Visits to the mall on the day of the championship were also 13.6% higher than the Friday visit average for the period between June and August 2024, showcasing the mall’s ability to draw in crowds by hosting major events.
Malls – both indoor and open-air – continue to evolve while playing a central role in the American retail landscape. Increasingly, malls are emerging as destinations for more than just shopping – especially during the summer – driving up foot traffic and attracting visitors from near and far. And while much is often said about the impact of holiday seasons on mall foot traffic, summer months offer another opportunity to boost mall visits. Malls that can curate experiences that resonate with their clientele can hope to see foot traffic growth – in the summer months and beyond.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
