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With roughly one in eight Americans now using GLP-1 medications for weight loss, their rapid adoption is shaping up to be one of the most consequential behavioral shifts in recent memory – with wide-ranging implications for businesses tied to how people spend their time and money.
We analyzed the data to understand how GLP-1 usage may be influencing real-world retail and dining foot traffic. How is grocery store visitation changing? What’s happening in limited-service dining? And which other categories are gaining from a heightened focus on health and wellness – further accelerating trends that began to take hold after the pandemic?
Research from Cornell University shows that GLP-1 users reduce household grocery spending by an average of 5.3% within six months of starting a medication, with the most significant pullbacks concentrated in calorie-dense, processed categories. At the same time, a handful of health-oriented foods – including yogurt, fresh fruit, nutrition bars, and meat snacks – are seeing increased spend.
And foot traffic data points to a parallel shift in where consumers are shopping, with a growing share of grocery visits flowing toward fresh-format stores like Trader Joe’s and Sprouts Farmers Market that emphasize high-quality perishables, curated health-oriented assortments, and an elevated in-store experience. While this pivot has been underway for several years, reflecting a broader post-pandemic focus on health and wellness, its recent acceleration coincides with the rise in GLP-1 use.
From Q1 2022 to Q1 2026, these chains steadily expanded their share of overall grocery foot traffic, with momentum accelerating beginning in Q1 2024, even as some experienced per-store softness amid a challenging consumer environment. Over the same period, the median household income within fresh-format chains’ captured markets, which had remained largely stable through early 2024, began to decline. This trend suggests a broadening customer base, as households across income brackets increasingly prioritize higher-quality food and allocate a larger share of their grocery trips to fresh formats.
The reallocation of spending also extends beyond the grocery aisle. Foot traffic data points to a meaningful reordering of food-away-from-home visits over the past three years, with healthier dining segments outperforming more indulgent ones – underscoring a broader shift toward more nutritious options that GLP-1 adoption may be helping to reinforce.
Frozen yogurt chains outpaced ice cream shops in year-over-year visit growth in both 2024 and 2025, as consumers gravitated toward lighter frozen treats. Smoothie and juice chains also captured growing demand, buoyed by expanding footprints from brands like Tropical Smoothie Cafe, Smoothie King, and Playa Bowls, while fast-casual similarly pulled ahead of QSR.
Fitness participation has been on the rise since the pandemic, and the data suggests gym habits are becoming more consistent over time – a trend that GLP-1 users, who often incorporate structured exercise into their routines, may be helping to reinforce.
Between Q1 2023 and Q1 2026, the share of visitors to leading gyms stopping by at least three times in an average month rose from 44.8% to 46.8%, while the share visiting at least four times rose from 37.3% to 39.1%. For a growing segment of the population, going to the gym has become a regular part of the weekly routine – with implications for fitness brands and the broader ecosystem of health-oriented businesses competing for this newly routine-driven consumer.
As consumers deepen their focus on health and fitness, the body transformations associated with GLP-1 use are also reshaping apparel demand. Alongside a growing need for wardrobe replenishment, GLP-1 users are investing more in their appearance and rediscovering the experience of shopping for clothes.
And this trend aligns with recent foot traffic data. Even as discretionary spending continues to face headwinds in a challenging macroeconomic environment, clothing retailers are seeing consistent year-over-year visit growth, driven in large part by the off-price sector – with each year outpacing the broader discretionary retail category by a widening margin. Apparel is pulling away from the pack, likely driven in part by a consumer whose relationship with their body – and with shopping – has fundamentally changed.
The GLP-1 era is still in its early stages – but as programs like Amazon’s new GLP-1 management program expand access, these drugs are likely to continue reshaping shopping behavior in the months and years ahead. The data points to a consumer who is eating differently, moving more, and spending in ways that reflect a new set of priorities, further amplifying the focus on health and wellness that has emerged over the past several years.
For more data-driven retail and dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Sprouts Farmers Market entered 2026 expecting a challenging quarter – and Q1 foot traffic trends bore that out. Against a Q1 2025 comparison where comps surged 11.7% year over year (YoY), the company guided Q1 2026 comparable sales to decline between -3.0% and -1.0%, citing both the tough lap and continued pressure on grocery shoppers from elevated food prices. And same-store visits also dropped, falling between -3.0% and -6.0% YoY in Q1.
Still, overall foot traffic rose 1.8%, supported by the 37 stores opened in fiscal 2025 and additional locations added in early 2026, which helped offset softness at existing stores.
Against this backdrop, Sprouts is making several forward-looking investments that could support a traffic recovery later this year. Continued expansion, a new loyalty program launched in 2025, and ongoing merchandising innovation – alongside its transition to self-distribution for fresh meat – all position the company to compete on both quality and value as macro conditions evolve.
Will Sprouts return to same-store visit growth in Q2?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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In February 2026, Chipotle unveiled its "Recipe for Growth" plan to reverse declining sales by improving operations, boosting marketing, and refreshing its menu. And though the plan has only been in place for a couple of months, traffic data suggests that it may already be having a positive impact on foot traffic to the chain.
After three consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in average visits per location, Chipotle's foot traffic trends are showing signs of recovery. In Q1 2026, average visits per location were nearly flat (-0.2% YoY), while overall visits grew 5.8% – the strongest growth seen over the past year.
Several branding and menu innovations likely contributed to Chipotle's traffic recovery, including the high protein menu launched in late December 2025 and partnerships with athletes and sporting events. The biggest single driver, however, appears to have been the return of Chicken al Pastor on February 10, 2026 – a fan-favorite protein that had generated more social media requests for its comeback than any other LTO in the chain's history. In the month of its launch, overall visits rose 10.1% YoY and same-store visits grew 5.1%.
Still, the following month, overall visits were up just 3.6% and same-store visits were flat – suggesting that popular menu items can generate meaningful visit spikes, but those spikes may not automatically translate into lasting traffic bumps.
Chipotle appears to be leaning into this dynamic rather than fighting it. Starting April 28, the chain is rotating out Chicken al Pastor in favor of Honey Chicken – its best-performing LTO ever – effectively betting that a steady drumbeat of novelty and scarcity can sustain traffic where any single item cannot.
Another pillar of the company's "Back to Growth" plan entailed creating "new occasions that drive demand into our restaurants" – and Chipotle seems to have accomplished just that with its successful "Tatted Like a Chipotle Bag" BOGO promotion.
On March 13, 2026, from 3 to 4 PM local time, Chipotle offered an in-store BOGO entrée to any customer sporting a tattoo – real, temporary, or hand-drawn – a nod to the iconic tattoo-style graphics on a Chipotle bag. The one-hour activation drove a 55.3% spike in visits above the year-to-date average, with the highest daily visit count recorded since Placer.ai began tracking Chipotle's traffic in 2018. Chipotle also reported March 13th 2026 as the highest daily sales day in the chain's history.
That a single one-hour, in-store promotion could shatter the chain's all-time sales record speaks to the power of Chipotle's brand equity and the effectiveness of leaning into what makes it culturally distinct.
The early results suggest that Chipotle's 'Recipe for Growth' is already working – Q1's traffic recovery was built on a potent mix of menu innovation, viral activations, and renewed cultural relevance. But while the chain's strategy of cycling LTOs and engineering shareable moments has clearly rekindled consumer excitement – whether this delivers consistent same-store visit growth will be the real measure of "Recipe for Growth" success.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
After a strong Q4 2025 that delivered record single-day sales and one of the largest digital acquisition events in McDonald's history, Q1 2026 posed a harder test. Severe weather, pressure on lower-income consumers, and rising gas prices all weighed on the QSR category. So how did McDonald’s perform in Q1? We dove into the data to find out.
Q1 2026 visits to McDonald’s rose 0.6% year over year (YoY), with average visits per location essentially flat at 0.1%. Given Winter Storm Fern’s outsized impact on January traffic and a consumer environment that grew more selective as the quarter progressed, finishing Q1 in positive territory is a meaningful result.
That resilience reflects momentum built in Q4 2025, when McDonald’s delivered across all three of the pillars the company has identified as central to the brand's recovery: value, marketing, and menu. The September 2025 relaunch of Extra Value Meals helped reestablish McDonald’s value positioning, while MONOPOLY – returning to U.S. restaurants for the first time in nearly a decade – became one of the brand’s largest digital customer acquisition events ever. Meanwhile, the December 2025 Grinch Meal, featuring Dill Pickle McShaker Fries and collectible holiday socks, drove the highest single sales day in company history.
McDonald’s carried that strategy into Q1, bringing back the Shamrock Shake in February and launching the Big Arch Burger nationally in March. But in a quarter shaped by weather disruption and more cautious consumer spending, these initiatives generated more muted traffic responses than Q4’s record-setting activations.
The chart below illustrates McDonald’s uneven performance throughout the quarter. January same-store visits fell 1.3% YoY, due in part to Winter Storm Fern, which swept across more than 30 states late in the month, disrupting operations and driving temporary restaurant closures. February rebounded to +3.8% YoY, supported by pent-up demand and the return of the Shamrock Shake, which delivered a modest but discernable lift during its launch week. March, however, slipped back to -1.2% – reflecting the Big Arch Burger's more muted traffic response and possibly also the tightening of consumer purse strings in the face of rising gas prices.
But despite this consumer caution, the response to McDonald's latest pop-culture collab shows that even in a more demanding environment, the right promotion can still cut through.
On March 31 – the launch date of McDonald's collaboration with Netflix's Oscar-winning animated film KPop Demon Hunters – Tuesday visits reached 11.1% above the year-to-date Tuesday average, the highest single Tuesday reading of the entire first quarter. The promotion featured two dueling adult meals inspired by the film's rival groups, HUNTR/X and the Saja Boys, along with limited-time Korean-inspired items like Ramyeon McShaker Fries. And traffic stayed elevated in the days that followed, contributing to the chain's busiest week of the year so far.
Q1 data shows that McDonald’s can still drive traffic at scale, even in a softer environment. But success increasingly depends on executing consistently across value, marketing, and menu – while also delivering the kind of culturally relevant moments that give consumers a compelling reason to visit. How will the chain perform in Q2 as it rolls out its revamped McValue menu?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Starbucks and Dutch Bros may both operate in the coffee space, but they are pursuing distinct strategies that reflect their different stages of growth. Starbucks, the legacy leader, is focused on revitalizing its established brand. Dutch Bros, the newer, fast-growing entrant, is expanding its footprint and building brand awareness. And AI-powered location analytics suggests that both approaches appear to be working.
Dutch Bros is driving traffic through aggressive expansion, a drive-thru–focused model, and ongoing menu innovation. Meanwhile, Starbucks’ “Back to Starbucks” plan centers on closing underperforming stores, re-emphasizing the coffeehouse experience, and simplifying operations. Both chains may also be benefiting from the current consumer headwinds driving demand for affordable treats, with year-over-year (YoY) same-store visits up every month of the past six months.
In September 2024, Starbucks' then-new CEO Brian Niccol announced the Back to Starbucks turnaround strategy, focusing on reestablishing the brand's core identity as a coffee-first, community-centered brand, centered on high-quality coffee, skilled baristas, and a welcoming in-store experience. It also prioritizes improving service speed and consistency, simplifying operations, and strengthening the overall customer experience.
In September 2024, shortly after becoming CEO, Brian Niccol introduced the company's "Back to Starbucks" turnaround strategy, aimed at restoring the brand’s identity as a coffee-first, community-centered experience built on quality coffee, skilled baristas, and welcoming stores. The plan also emphasizes improving speed and consistency, simplifying operations, and enhancing the overall customer experience.
Traffic data reveals that the restructuring plan is already bearing fruit. Over the past two full quarters (Q4 2025 and Q1 2026) the company's overall traffic and average visits per venue increased 4.9% to 5.9% compared to the previous year – a particularly strong performance given broader consumer headwinds. If sustained, this momentum could signal a meaningful and durable return to growth for the brand.
Concurrently, Dutch Bros’ rapid expansion is translating into strong top-line traffic growth, with overall visits rising at a double-digit pace throughout 2025 and into early 2026. Quarterly gains ranged from 12.3% to 17.9% YoY as the brand entered new markets and scaled its footprint.
At the same time, average visits per location have remained relatively stable, suggesting that new store openings are not significantly cannibalizing existing units. This combination of robust overall traffic growth and steady per-location performance points to a healthy expansion strategy, where footprint growth is driving incremental demand rather than diluting it.
As both brands continue to execute on their respective strategies, early traffic trends suggest that there is no single path to growth in today’s coffee space. Starbucks’ operational reset and Dutch Bros’ expansion-led model are each resonating with consumers, albeit in different ways. The key question going forward will be whether these gains can be sustained as macro pressures persist and competition intensifies.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai.anchor
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In a macroeconomic environment that continues to challenge dining chains, Shake Shack’s performance offers a clear signal of what consumers prioritize in 2026 – familiarity, convenience, and affordable indulgences.
Over the past several years, Shake Shack has expanded its footprint while maintaining solid performance at existing locations. In Q4 2025, total revenue rose nearly 22% year over year, while same-store sales increased 2.1%, driven primarily by pricing alongside a modest (+0.5%) lift in traffic – marking the brand’s 20th consecutive quarter of positive comparable growth. Restaurant-level margins also improved, pointing to stronger execution at the unit level.
And that momentum carried into Q1 2026. Overall visits rose 19.9% YoY, with average visits per location increasing in every month except January, when severe weather – including Winter Storm Fern – likely contributed to a slight 0.4% YoY dip.
A key driver of this consistency is Shake Shack’s alignment with evolving consumer routines. Loyalty has been rising, with repeat visitors accounting for an increasing share of traffic. At the same time, shorter weekday visits are becoming more common, suggesting that more customers are incorporating the brand into their weekly rhythms – whether for a quick lunch or an afternoon treat. And Shake Shack’s newly announced loyalty platform is likely to reinforce this behavior, further embedding the brand into day-to-day routines.
Menu innovation and popular limited-time offers also continue to play a major role in Shake Shack’s growth. Last summer, the nationwide launch of the Dubai Chocolate Pistachio Shake generated significant buzz. And more recently, the chain’s popular Valentine’s Day “True Love Shake” BOGO delivered its busiest day of the year – with visits jumping 14.8% above the typical Saturday baseline.
Shake Shack’s expansion strategy and visitation patterns point to a broader truth about dining in 2026: Success increasingly hinges on fitting seamlessly into everyday life while still delivering moments of excitement. As macroeconomic pressures persist, the brands that can balance routine convenience with craveable, culturally relevant offerings are likely to lead the next phase of growth.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The Mountain region offers employment opportunities, affordable housing, outdoors recreation, and a relatively low cost of living – which could explain why these states are emerging as major domestic migration hubs. Idaho, Nevada and Wyoming in particular have consistently attracted inbound domestic migration in recent years, as Americans continue leaving higher density regions in search of greener – and calmer – pastures.
This report uses various datasets from the Placer.ai Migration Trends Report to analyze domestic migration to Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming. Where are people coming from? And how is recent migration impacting local population centers in these states? Keep reading to find out.
Idaho emerged as a domestic migration hotspot over the pandemic, as many Americans freed from the obligation of in-person work relocated to the Gem State. Between June 2020 and June 2024, Idaho saw positive net migration of 4.7%, more than any other state in the U.S. (This metric measures the number of people moving to a state minus the number of people leaving – expressed as a percentage of the state’s total population.) And between 2023 and 2024, Idaho remained the nation’s top domestic migration performer (see map above).
Diving into the data reveals that though people moved to Idaho from across the U.S., most of Idaho’s influx over the past four years came from neighboring West Coast and Mountain States – especially California. Former residents of the Golden State accounted for a whopping 58.1% of inbound migrants to Idaho over the analyzed period.
California’s position as the top feeder of relocators to Idaho during the analyzed period may come as no surprise, given the state’s recent population outflow and the many former California residents who have settled in the Mountain region. But Washington, Oregon, and Nevada – where inbound and outbound migration remained relatively even in recent years – have also been seeing shifts to Idaho.
Idaho has a lower tax burden, robust employment opportunities, and greater overall affordability than its top four feeder states. So some of the recent relocators likely moved to the Gem State to enjoy better economic opportunities while staying relatively close to their states of origin. And these recent Idahoans may be reshaping Idaho’s demographic and economic landscape in the process.
Most inbound migration to Idaho is concentrated in the state’s metro areas, with Boise – the capital of Idaho and the major city closest to California – consistently absorbing the highest share of net inbound migration.
But recently, other CBSAs have emerged as key destinations for new Idahoans. The location of two emerging domestic relocation hubs in particular suggests that many new Idaho residents may be looking to stay close to their areas of origin: Coeur d’Alene, located near the border with Washington, attracts its largest contingent of new residents from the Spokane, WA metro area, while Twin Falls’ top feeder area is the Elko CBSA in northern Nevada.
Twin Falls in southern Idaho has a strong job market – and has received a substantial share of inbound domestic migration over the past three years. Coeur d’Alene is also flush with economic opportunities, and after declining steadily for several years, the share of relocators heading to the metro area increased to 20.7% between June 2023 and 2024.
The chart above also reveals that the share of inbound migration heading to Boise declined slightly between June 2023 and June 2024 – following a period of consistent growth between June 2020 and June 2023 – even as the share of migration to Coeur d’Alene ballooned. This may mean that, although the state’s largest metro area may have reached its saturation point, other areas in the state are still primed to receive inbound migration.
While Nevada is losing some of its population to nearby Idaho, the Silver State is also gaining new residents of its own: Between September 2020 and September 2024, the Silver State experienced positive net migration of 3.3%. And the data indicates that many new Nevadans are choosing to settle in the state's rapidly growing suburban centers.
Zooming into the Las Vegas-Henderson CBSA reveals that much of the growth is concentrated outside the main city of Las Vegas. Instead, the more suburban cities of Enterprise, Henderson, and North Las Vegas received the largest migration bump – with Henderson and North Las Vegas’ population now surpassing that of Reno. And while year-over-year migration trends suggest that the growth is beginning to stabilize, Enterprise and Henderson are still growing significantly faster than the CBSA as a whole – indicating that the suburbs continue to draw Nevada newcomers.
Analyzing the inbound domestic migration to Enterprise – one of the fastest growing areas in the country – may shed light on the aspects of suburban Las Vegas that are driving population growth.
Many new Enterprise residents moved to the city from elsewhere in Nevada, while most out-of-state newcomers came from California or Hawaii – mirroring the migration patterns for Nevada as a whole. And according to the Niche Neighborhood Grades dataset, Enterprise is a good fit for retirees and young professionals alike, with the city ranking higher than its feeder areas with regard to a range of factors – from jobs and commute to weather.
Like with migration to the rest of the Mountain region, domestic migration to Nevada – particularly to suburban areas like Enterprise and Henderson – is likely driven by newcomers looking for more economic opportunities along with higher quality of life.
Wyoming – currently the least populous state in the country – is another Mountain region state where inbound migration is driving up the population numbers. But in the Cowboy State, urban areas – as opposed to suburban ones – seem to be the main magnets for population growth.
The Cheyenne, Wyoming CBSA – home to Wyoming’s capital – is the largest metro area in the state. And analyzing the CBSA’s population trends over the past six years reveals a recent shift in Wyoming’s inbound migration patterns.
Cheyenne’s population is mostly suburban, and the CBSA’s suburban areas remain popular with newcomers – suburban Cheyenne has also seen steady population growth since January 2018. But when the CBSA became a popular relocation destination over the pandemic, many newcomers to the Cheyenne region chose to move to metro area’s more rural areas: By April 2022, Cheyenne’s rural population had jumped by 10.8% compared to a January 2018 baseline, compared to a 5.9% and 3.9% increase in the CBSA’s suburban and urban populations, respectively.
As the country opened back up, however, the number of rural Cheyenne residents dropped back down – and by September 2024, Cheyenne’s rural population was only 0.1% bigger than it had been in January 2018. The population growth in suburban Cheyenne also slowed down, with the September 2024 suburban population numbers more or less on par with the April 2022 figures.
Now, Cheyenne’s urban areas have overtaken both rural and suburban areas in terms of population growth: In September 2024, Cheyenne’s urban population was 9.4% bigger than in January 2018, compared to 5.2% and 0.1% growth for the suburban and urban areas, respectively.
Despite the growth in Cheyenne’s urban population, the suburbs still remain the most populous – as of September 2024, 71.2% of the CBSA’s population resided in suburban areas. But the continued growth of Cheyenne’s urban population may reflect a rising demand among Wyomingites for amenities and economic opportunities unavailable elsewhere in the state, mirroring the trend in Idaho’s urban CBSAs such as Boise and Coeur d'Alene.
Cheyenne’s urban growth could be partially due to shifts in migration patterns. At the height of the pandemic, most newcomers to Cheyenne were coming from out of state, perhaps drawn by the quiet and spaciousness of rural Wyoming. But since 2022, the share of migration to Cheyenne from within Wyoming has grown – coinciding with the population increase in its urban areas and suggesting that Cheyenne's amenities are attracting more residents statewide.
This growing intra-state migration to Cheyenne’s urban areas underscores the city’s evolving role as a hub within Wyoming, appealing not just to newcomers from outside the state but increasingly to Wyoming residents seeking the benefits of a more urban lifestyle relative to the rest of the state.
The Mountain States are solidifying their status as key migration hubs in the U.S., driven by economic opportunities, affordable living, and lifestyle appeal. Between September 2023 and September 2024, Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming all experienced significant population growth due to inbound domestic migration. In Idaho, newcomers from neighboring states are boosting the population of the Gem State’s major metro areas. Meanwhile the Cheyenne, Wyoming, CBSA is emerging as a focal point for intra-state migration, with urban Cheyenne seeing particularly pronounced growth. And in Nevada, suburban hubs like Henderson and Enterprise are welcoming new arrivals seeking a balance of suburban comfort and economic potential. With the cost of living continuing to increase – and the Mountain region offering something for everyone through its various states – Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming are likely to remain top migration destinations in 2025 and beyond.
2024 has been another challenging year for retailers. Still-high prices and an uncertain economic climate led many shoppers to trade down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences. Value took center stage, as cautious consumers sought to stretch their dollars as far as possible.
But price wasn’t the only factor driving consumer behavior in 2024. This past year saw the rise of a variety of retail and dining trends, some seemingly at odds with one another. Shoppers curbed discretionary spending, but made room in their budgets for “essential non-essentials” like gym memberships and other wellness offerings. Consumers placed a high premium on speed and convenience, while at the same time demonstrating a willingness to go out of their way for quality or value finds. And even amidst concern about the economy, shoppers were ready to pony up for specialty items, legacy brands, and fun experiences – as long as they didn’t break the bank.
How did these currents – likely to continue shaping the retail landscape into 2025 – impact leading brands and categories? We dove into the data to find out.
Bifurcation has emerged as a foundational principle in retail over the past few years: Consumers are increasingly gravitating toward either luxury or value offerings and away from the ‘middle.’ Add extended economic uncertainty along with rapid expansions and product diversification from top value-oriented retailers, and you have an explosion of visits in the value lane.
But we are seeing a ceiling to that growth – especially in the discount & dollar store space. Throughout 2023 and the first part of 2024, visits to discount & dollar stores increased steadily. But no category can sustain uninterrupted visit growth forever. Since April 2024, year–over-year (YoY) foot traffic to the segment has begun to slow, with September 2024 showing just a modest 0.8% YoY visit increase.
Discount & dollar stores, which attract lower-income shoppers compared to both grocery stores and superstores, have also begun lagging behind these segments in visit-per-location growth. In Q3, the average number of visits to each discount and dollar store location remained essentially flat compared to 2023 (+0.2%), while visits per location to superstores and grocery stores grew by 2.8% and 1.0%, respectively. As 2024 draws to a close, it is the latter segments, which appeal to shoppers with incomes closer to the nationwide median of $76.1K, which are seeing better YoY performance.
The deceleration doesn’t mean that discount retailers are facing existential risk – discount & dollar stores are still extremely strong and well-positioned with focused offerings that resonate with consumers. The visitation data does suggest, however, that future growth may need to focus on initiatives other large-scale fleet expansions. Some of these efforts will involve moving upmarket (see pOpShelf), some will focus on fleet optimization, and others may include new offerings and channels.
Return of the middle anyone?
Still, in an environment where consumers have been facing the compounded effects of rising prices, value remains paramount for many shoppers. And brands that have found ways to let customers have their cake and eat it too – enjoy specialty offerings and elevated experiences without breaking the bank – have emerged as major visit winners this year.
Trader Joe’s, in particular, has stood out as one of the leading retail brands for innovative value in 2024, a trend that is expected to continue into 2025.
Trader Joe’s dedicated fan base is positively addicted to the chain’s broad range of high-quality specialty items. But by maintaining a much higher private label mix than most grocers – approximately 80%, compared to an industry average of 25% to 30% – the retailer is also able to keep its pricing competitive. Trader Joe’s cultivates consumer excitement by constantly innovating its product line – there are even websites dedicated to showcasing the chain’s new offerings each season. In turn, Trader Joe’s enjoys much higher visits per square foot than the rest of the grocery category: Over the past twelve months, Trader Joe’s drew a median 56 visits per square foot – compared to 23 for H-E-B, the second-strongest performer.
Casual dining chain Chili’s has also been a standout on the disruptive value front this past year – offering consumers a full-service dining experience at a quick-service price point.
Chili’s launched its Big Smasher Burger on April 29th, 2024, adding the item to its popular ‘3 for Me’ offering, which includes an appetizer, entrée, and drink for just $10.99 – lower than than the average ticket at many quick-service restaurant chains. The innovative promotion, which has been further expanded since, continues to drive impressive visitation trends. With food-away-from-home inflation continuing to decelerate, this strategy of offering deep discounts is likely to continue to be a key story in 2025.
Convenience is king, right?
Well, probably not. If convenience truly were king, visitors would orient themselves to making fewer, longer visits to retailers – to minimize the inconvenience of frequent grocery trips and spend less time on the road. But analyzing the data suggests that, while consumers may want to save time, it is not always their chief concern.
Looking at the superstore and grocery segments (among others) reveals that the proportion of visitors spending under 30 minutes at the grocery store is actually increasing – from 73.3% in Q3 2019 to 76.6% in Q3 2024. This indicates that shoppers are increasingly willing to make shorter trips to the store to pick up just a few items.
At the same time, more consumers than ever are willing to travel farther to visit specialty grocery chains in the search of specific products that make the visit worthwhile.
Cross visitation between chains is also increasing – suggesting that shoppers are willing to make multiple trips to find the products they want – at the right price point. Between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024, the share of traditional grocery store visitors who also visited a Costco at least three times during the quarter grew across chains.
Does this mean convenience doesn’t matter? Of course not. Does it indicate that value, quality and a love of specific products are becoming just as, if not more, important to shoppers? Yes.
The implications here are very significant. If consumers are willing to go out of their way for the right products at the right price points – even at the expense of convenience – then the retailers able to leverage these ‘visit drivers’ will be best positioned to grow their reach considerably. The willingness of consumers to forego convenience considerations when the incentives are right also reinforces the ever-growing importance of the in-store experience.
So while convenience may still be within the royal family, the role of king is up for grabs.
Convenience may not be everything, but the drive for quicker service has emerged as more important than ever in the restaurant space. Diners want their fast food… well, as fast as possible. And to meet this demand, quick-service restaurants (QSRs) and fast-casual chains have been integrating more technology into their operations. Chipotle has been a leader in this regard, unveiling the “Autocado” robot at a Huntington Beach, California location last month. The robot can peel, pit, and chop avocados in record time, a major benefit for the Tex-Mex chain.
And the Autocado seems to be paying off. The Huntington Beach location drew 10.0% more visits compared to the average Chipotle location in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro area in Q3 2024. Visitors are visiting more frequently and getting their food more quickly – 43.9% of visits at this location lasted 10 minutes or less, compared to 37.5% at other stores in the CBSA.
Are diners flocking to this Chipotle location to watch the future of avocado chopping in action, or are they enticed by shorter wait times? Time will tell. But with workers able to focus on other aspects of food preparation and customer service, the innovation appears to be resonating with diners.
McDonald’s, too, has leaned into new technologies to streamline its service. The chain debuted its first (almost) fully automated, takeaway-only restaurant in White Settlement, TX in 2022 – where orders are placed at kiosks or on app, and then delivered to customers by robots. (The food is still prepared by humans.) Unsurprisingly, the restaurant drives faster visits than other local McDonald’s locations – in Q3 2023, 79.7% of visits to the chain lasted less than 10 minutes, compared to 68.5% for other McDonald’s in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX CBSA. But crucially, the automated location is also busier than other area McDonald’s, garnering 16.8% more visits in Q3 than the chain’s CBSA-wide average. And the location draws a higher share of late-night visits than other area McDonald’s – customers on the hunt for a late-night snack might be drawn to a restaurant that offers quick, interaction-free service.
Changing store formats is another key trend shaping retail in 2024. Whether by reducing box sizes to cut costs, make stores more accessible, or serve smaller growth markets – or by going big with one-stop shops, retailers are reimagining store design. And the moves are resonating with consumers, driving visits while at the same improving efficiency.
Macy’s, Inc. is one retailer that is leading the small-format charge this year. In February 2024, Macy’s announced its “Bold New Chapter” – a turnaround plan including the downsizing of its traditional eponymous department store fleet and a pivot towards smaller-format Macy’s locations. Macy’s has also continued to expand its highly-curated, small-format Bloomie’s concept, which features a mix of established and trendy pop-up brands tailored to local preferences.
And the data shows that this shift towards small format may be helping Macy’s drive visits with more accessible and targeted offerings that consumers can enjoy as they go about their daily routines: In Q3 2024, Macy’s small-format stores drew a higher share of weekday visitors and of local customers (i.e. those coming from less than seven miles away) than Macy’s traditional stores.
Small-format stores are also making inroads in the home improvement category. The past few years have seen consumers across the U.S. migrating to smaller suburban and rural markets – and retailers like Harbor Freight Tools and Ace Hardware are harnessing their small-format advantage to accommodate these customers while keeping costs low.
Harbor Freight tools and Ace Hardware’s trade areas have a high degree of overlap with some of the highest growth markets in the U.S., many of which have populations under 200K. And while it can be difficult to justify opening a Home Depot or Lowe’s in these hubs – both chains average more than 100,000 square feet per store – Harbor Freight Tools and Ace Hardware’s smaller boxes, generally under 20,000 square feet, are a perfect fit.
This has allowed both chains to tap into the smaller markets which are attracting growing shares of the population. And so while Home Depot and Lowe’s have seen moderate visits declines on a YoY basis, Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware have seen consistent YoY visit boosts since Q1 2024 – outperforming the wider category since early 2023.
Are smaller stores a better bet across the board? At the end of the day, the success of smaller-format stores depends largely on the category. For retail segments that have seen visit trends slow since the pandemic – home furnishings and consumer electronics, for example – smaller-format stores offer brands a more economical way to serve their customers. Retailers have also used smaller-format stores to better curate their merchandise assortments for their most loyal customers, helping to drive improved visit frequency.
That said, a handful of retailers, such as Hy-Vee, have recently bucked the trend of smaller-format stores. These large-format stores are often designed as destination locations – Hy-Vee’s larger-format locations usually offer a full suite of amenities beyond groceries, such as a food hall, eyewear kiosk, beauty department, and candy shop. Rather than focusing on smaller markets, these stores aim to attract visitors from surrounding areas.
Visit data for Hy-Vee’s large-format store in Gretna, Nebraska indicates that this location sees a higher percentage of weekend visits than other area locations – 37.7% compared to 33.1% for the chain’s Omaha CBSA average – as well as more visits lasting over 30 minutes (32.9% compared to 21.9% for the metro area as a whole). For these shoppers, large-format, one-stop shops offer a convenient – and perhaps more exciting – alternative to traditionally sized grocery stores. The success of the large-format stores is another sign that though convenience isn’t everything in 2024, it certainly resonates – especially when paired with added-value offerings.
Many retail brands have entrenched themselves in American culture and become an extension of consumers' identities. And while some of these previously ubiquitous brands have disappeared over the years as the retail industry evolved, others have transformed to keep pace with changing consumer needs – and some have even come back from the brink of extinction. And the quest for value notwithstanding, 2024 has also seen the resurgence of many of these (decidedly non-off-price) legacy brands.
In apparel specifically, Gap and Abercrombie & Fitch – two brands that dominated the cultural zeitgeist of the 1990s and early 2000s before seeing their popularity decline somewhat in the late aughts and 2010s – may be staging a comeback. Bed Bath & Beyond, a leader in the home goods category, is also making a play at returning to physical retail through partnerships.
Anthropologie, another legacy player in women’s fashion and home goods, is also on the rise. Anthropologie’s distinctive aesthetic resonates deeply with consumers – especially women millennials aged 30 to 45. And by capturing the hearts of its customers, the retailer stands as a beacon for retailers that can hedge against promotional activity and still drive foot traffic growth.
And visits to the chain have been rising steadily. In Q4 2023, the chain experienced a bigger holiday season foot traffic spike than pre-pandemic, drawing more overall visits than in Q4 2019. And in Q3 2024, visits were higher than in Q3 2023.
And speaking of the 35 to 40 set – the generation that all retailers are courting? Millennials. Does that sound familiar? Yes, because this is the same generational cohort that retailers tried to target a decade ago. As millennials have aged into the family-formation stage of life, their retail needs have evolved, and the industry is now primed to meet them.
From the revival of nostalgic brands like the Limited Too launch at Kohl’s to warehouse clubs expanding memberships to younger consumers as they move to suburban and rural communities, there are myriad examples of retailers reaching out to this cohort. And Sam’s Club offers a prime example of this trend.
Over the past few years, millennials and Gen-Zers have emerged as major drivers of membership growth at Sam’s Club, drawn to the retailer’s value offerings and digital upgrades – like the club’s Scan & Go technology. Over the same period, Sam’s Club has grown the share of “Singles and Starters” households in its captured market from 6% above the national benchmark in Q3 2019 to 15% in Q3 2024. And with plans to involve customers in co-creating products for its private-label brand, Sam’s Club may continue to grow its market share among this value-conscious – but also discerning and optimistic – demographic.
Millennials are also now old enough to wax nostalgic about their youth – and brands are paying attention. This summer, Taco Bell leaned into nostalgia with a promotion bringing back iconic menu items from the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s – all priced under $3. The promotion, which soft-launched at three Southern California locations in August, was so successful that the company is now offering the specials nationwide. The three locations that trialed the “Decades Menu” saw significant boosts in visits during the promotional period compared to their daily averages for August. And people came from far and wide to sample the offerings – with a higher proportion of visitors traveling over seven miles to reach the stores while the items were available.
Hot on the heels of a tumultuous 2023, 2024’s retail environment has certainly kept retailers on their toes. While embracing innovative value has helped some chains thrive, other previously ascendant value segments, including discount & dollar stores, may have reached their growth ceilings. Consumers clearly care about convenience – but are willing to make multiple grocery stops to find what they need. At the same time, legacy brands are plotting their comeback, while others are harnessing the power of nostalgia to drive millennials – and other consumers – through their doors.
The grocery industry has navigated unprecedented challenges in recent years – from pandemic-driven shifts in consumer behavior and supply chain disruptions to rising costs, labor shortages, and increased operational demands. In the face of these hurdles, the category has been pushed to innovate, adapting everything from product selections to shopping formats to meet changing consumer expectations.
But within the grocery industry, some segments resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. This white paper dives into the data to explore two segments that have been leading category-wide visit growth for some time: specialty and fresh format stores, which focus on produce, organic foods, and culturally specific items (think Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and H Mart, to name a few), and value grocery chains like Aldi, WinCo Foods, and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market. Location analytics show shoppers are increasingly drawn to these two grocery store types, a shift that has the potential to reshape the grocery landscape.
How did value and specialty grocery chains perform in Q3 2024 in comparison to traditional supermarkets like Kroger, Albertsons, and H-E-B? How does visitor behavior vary between the three grocery segments, and what differences can be observed in the demographic and psychographic make-ups of their trade areas? The report explores these questions and more below.
The grocery industry has performed well over the past few months, with steady weekly year-over-year (YoY) visit increases throughout Q3 2024. During the week of July 1st, the segment saw a 4.6% YoY foot traffic boost, likely driven by shoppers loading up on ingredients for Independence Day barbecues and picnics. And after tapering somewhat in early August, visits picked up again in September, with YoY increases ranging from 2.0% to 2.9% throughout the month. This positive growth is a good sign for the segment – which has experienced more than its fair share of challenges over the past few years.
Though the grocery category as a whole is thriving, a closer look at different segments within the industry reveals that some are seeing more significant growth than others.
Indeed, digging deeper into grocery visits throughout Q3 2024 reveals that much of the industry’s growth is being driven by specialty and fresh format stores and value grocery chains. The two segments offer markedly different shopping experiences: Specialty chains tend to emphasize harder-to-find ingredients and fresh produce – sometimes even at higher price points than traditional grocery stores – while value grocery stores focus on affordability. But both categories are experiencing outsize visit growth in 2024, highlighting consumers’ dual interest in both quality and value.
In July and August 2024, traditional supermarkets, specialty grocers, and value chains all experienced positive YoY visit growth. But while traditional grocery stores saw a 3.1% increase in July and just a 0.9% uptick in August, value and specialty chains saw YoY growth ranging from 4.7% to 7.7% during the two months. In September 2024, YoY visits to traditional grocery stores fell by 0.5%, while value and specialty chains saw 5.0% and 5.2% increases, respectively. For today’s consumer, it seems, savings are key – but specialty offerings also resonate strongly.
Today’s grocery shoppers are increasingly embracing specialty grocery options – and analyzing consumer driving habits to grocery stores shows that they are willing to go the extra mile to reach them.
Breaking down grocery visits by distance traveled reveals that just 18.5% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery chains came from less than one mile away in Q3 2024 – compared to 23.9% for traditional grocery stores and 23.2% for value chains. Similarly, 31.3% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery stores originated from one to three miles away, compared to 34.7% and 34.5% for the other analyzed segments.
On the flip side, some 26.4% of visits to specialty and fresh format stores were made by people traveling at least seven miles to do their shopping – compared to 22.7% and 21.4% for traditional and value chains, respectively. Specialty grocery operators can account for this difference, locating stores in areas accessible to geographically dispersed audiences eager to shop their unique offerings.
And a look at changes in visitor behavior at three key specialty chains – Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and Great Wall Supermarket – shows that even as these brands expand their footprints, customers are increasingly willing to travel the distance to visit them. Between 2019 and 2024, all three chains saw a marked increase in the share of visitors traveling over seven miles to shop their offerings. .
Asian grocery chain Great Wall Supermarket, a relatively small regional chain with some 22 locations across eight states, saw the most significant increase in visits from afar over the analyzed period. In Q3 2024, 32.3% of visits to the chain originated from seven or more miles away, up from 28.3% in Q3 2019. Ranked America’s Best Supermarket by Newsweek in 2024, the chain’s wide selection of everything from seafood to fresh produce has made it a hit among Asian food aficionados – and as the supermarket’s reputation grows, so does its draw among customers living further away from its venues.
Consumer favorite Trader Joe’s and organic grocery chain Sprouts Farmers Market also grew their shares of long-distance visits between 2019 and 2024 – no small feat for the two chains, given their expansion over the past several years.
This travel distance snapshot serves as a reminder of the unique role played by specialty grocery stores that offer their customers unique shopping experiences, premium or organic products, and culturally specific items. Shoppers will go out of their way to travel to these stores – and even as they expand and become more readily accessible, their growing popularity makes them ever-more attractive destinations for customers coming from further away.
While visitors to specialty grocery chains often travel long distances for unique offerings, cost-conscious consumers at value stores exhibit other behaviors that differentiate them from traditional and specialty grocery shoppers.
The rising cost of living has pushed the discount retail segment into overdrive – and value grocery chains are also benefiting. The category has flourished in recent years, with many bargain-oriented grocery chains adding new stores at a rapid clip to meet burgeoning consumer demand.
Like visitors to specialty grocery chains, value grocery shoppers demonstrate segment-specific behaviors that reflect their preferences and habits. And perhaps most strikingly, foot traffic data reveals that these shoppers tend to stay longer in-store than visitors to traditional and specialty grocery chains.
In Q3 2024, 26.5% of visits to value grocery chains lasted longer than 30 minutes, compared to 23.4% for traditional grocery chains and 23.7% for specialty and fresh format chains. This suggests that these stores attract shoppers who take their time and carefully consider price points, looking for the best value for their dollar – a need that the chains they frequent seem to be meeting.
Given the tremendous success of the value grocery space in recent years, it may come as no surprise that some traditional supermarkets are getting in on the action by opening or expanding discount banners of their own. How do such off-shoot banners impact these grocers’ reach?
Cult-favorite Texas grocery chain H-E-B opened the first branch of its value banner, Joe V’s Smart Shop, in 2010. The discount arm currently includes 11 stores – mainly in the Houston area – with several new stores opening, or in planning stages, in Dallas.
And foot traffic data shows that Joe V's attracts mission-driven shoppers who make less frequent but significantly longer trips than visitors to traditional grocery stores. In Q3 2024, the average visit duration at Joe V’s was 37.8 minutes, compared to just 26.8 minutes at H-E-B – a full 11 minute difference. At the same time, while 38.5% of Q3 visits to H-E-B were made by customers frequenting the chain, on average, at least four times a month, just 11.8% of visits to Joe V’s were made by visitors reaching that threshold.
Joe V’s is also more likely than H-E-B to attract parental households, with 36.8% of its captured market made up of households with children – significantly higher than H-E-B’s 32.0%.
Together, these data points paint a picture of the average Joe V’s shopper: cost-conscious, likely to have children, and inclined to carefully plan shopping trips to maximize savings and cut down on grocery runs. This suggests that they are mission-driven and focused on stocking up rather than running out to grab ingredients as the need arises.
Major grocery store operators often operate a variety of store types at different price points to appeal to as many shoppers as possible, and Hy-Vee is no exception. The regional grocery favorite launched a discount chain, Dollar Fresh, in 2018 and currently operates 25 stores under that banner, aiming to attract middle-class, cost-conscious shoppers.
Using Experian’s Mosaic dataset to analyze Dollar Fresh’s trade area reveals that the chain’s captured market features significantly higher shares of lower-middle-class family consumers than its potential one – highlighting its special draw for these shoppers. (A chain’s potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to population size, thus reflecting the overall makeup of the chain’s trade area. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base. Comparing a chain’s captured market to its potential one can serve as a helpful gauge of the brand’s success at attracting key audience segments.)
In Q3 2024, the “Pastoral Pride” family segment represented 11.4% of Dollar Fresh’s captured market, compared to just 5.3% of its potential market. This over-representation of lower-middle-class consumers from small towns in Dollar Fresh’s captured market indicates that the chain is especially effective at drawing customers that belong to this segment. Though Hy-Vee’s captured market also boasted a higher share of this demographic than its potential one in Q3, the difference was much smaller – and the chain’s overall reach among these consumers was more limited.
In contrast, Hy-Vee excels at attracting “Flourishing Families” – affluent, middle-aged families and couples – who made up 10.3% of the supermarket’s captured market in Q3 2024. Dollar Fresh’s captured market, on the other hand, featured a smaller share of this segment than its potential one – showing that the discount chain is of less interest to these consumers. So while Hy-Vee tends to appeal to higher-income families with more spending flexibility, value-conscious shoppers have been making their way to Dollar Fresh.
This audience segmentation analysis shows how value offerings help grocery chains attract wider audiences – and highlights the advantage of operating multiple store types to appeal to a broader range of shoppers.
People will always need access to a variety of fresh foods – ensuring that grocery stores and supermarkets continue to play a vital role in in the retail landscape. And while the category as a whole has continued to thrive even in today’s challenging environment, specialty and value grocery chains resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. As grocery retailers diversify their formats, those aligning with consumer preferences for affordability, uniqueness, and quality are well-positioned for continued growth.
