.svg)
Darden Restaurants Inc. is the largest full-service restaurant group in the country, operating ten dining chains that range from fine dining to casual bars.
How has the company fared in recent months? We examined the location analytics to evaluate Darden’s recent performance and took a closer look at what the holiday season might bring for its wide array of brands.
The full-service restaurant category has faced significant challenges in recent years as rising food prices, labor shortages, and inflation pushed costs up and some customers away. But since the beginning of 2024, Darden has managed to stay ahead and outpace the wider full-service restaurant segment in terms of year-over-year (YoY) quarterly visits. Q3 2024 visits were 0.9% higher than in Q3 2023. In contrast, the broader full-service segment experienced a 1.9% decline in the same period.
As restaurant inflation finally begins to cool and the dining segment tiptoes cautiously toward recovery, Darden’s ability to stay ahead of the competition suggests that its brands are resonating with customers even during periods of economic uncertainty.
Darden’s portfolio runs the gamut from household names like Olive Garden (with over 900 locations) and LongHorn Steakhouse (over 500 locations) to smaller chains like Yard House and Bahama Breeze. And zooming in on the recent November data reveals that most chains are still enjoying year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. Yard House led the pack with 11.0% more visits than in November 2023, followed by LongHorn Steakhouse (9.0% YoY growth), and Bahama Breeze (8.8% YoY growth).
This steady November momentum bodes well for Darden as the typically busy holiday season approaches.
Indeed, diving into previous years’ visitation patterns reveals that Darden’s brands generally receive sizable visit bumps over the holiday season.
Analyzing December visits in 2019, 2022, and 2023 relative to each year’s January to November monthly visit average highlighted significant visit boosts across almost all Darden brands. The Capital Grille led the charge in December 2023, with visits 42.3% higher than the January to November average, followed closely by Ruth’s Chris Steak House (34.4%) and Season’s 52 (31.1%).
These consistent December traffic spikes coupled with November’s strong showing suggests that the company is well-positioned to sustain its current momentum into the holiday season and beyond.
Darden Restaurants continues to be a leader in the full-service segment, enjoying visit growth and capturing holiday foot traffic.
Will this year’s holiday season bring increased foot traffic to the company’s brands?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven dining insights.
About the Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining: The Placer 100 Index for Retail and Dining is a curated, dynamic list of leading chains that often serve as prime tenants for shopping centers and malls. The index includes chains from various industries, such as superstores, grocery, dollar stores, dining, apparel, and more. Among the notable chains featured are Walmart, Target, Costco, Kroger, Ulta Beauty, The Home Depot, McDonald’s, Chipotle, Crunch Fitness, and Trader Joe's. The goal of the list is to provide insight into the wider trends impacting the retail, dining and shopping center segments.
October’s positive visitation trends continued in November, with overall visits to the Placer 100 Retail & Dining Index up 0.9% year-over-year (YoY) – a strong start to the holiday season.
Some of the November uptick was likely driven by Black Friday – visits to the Placer 100 Index were up 2.2% YoY overall for Black Friday Weekend 2024, with Sunday seeing a particularly pronounced visit spike of 5.3%.
And zooming out to the week before Black Friday reveals that the visit boost started even earlier – YoY visits increased as early as the Saturday before Thanksgiving, with traffic remaining positive throughout the week leading up to the retail milestone. The early growth in visits highlights the success of early promotions in driving visits this year.
Once again, Chili’s Grill & Bar topped the Placer 100 Index, likely thanks to the ongoing popularity of the chain’s Big Smash Burger, 3 For Me value meal, and Triple Dipper offering. The chain’s even more remarkable visit growth in November was likely also due to Chili’s free Veteran’s Day meals to veterans and active duty personnel, which generated a 135.4% increase in visits on Monday, November 11th relative to the previous three Mondays’ average.
November’s Placer 100 Index winners also included several value-driven chains – such as Aldi’s, HomeGoods, and Crunch Fitness – as well luxury brands such as Nordstrom and Jared Jewelers – perhaps a testament to the still bifurcated consumer market.
Barnes & Noble also made the November 2024 top 10 list, with 13.0% overall visit growth and 9.8% more visits per location, on average, than in November 2023. The legacy book retailer, on an upward trajectory since 2021, has gained significant momentum this year – and the strong November numbers indicate that the company is headed into a promising holiday season.
The chain is seeing more than just impressive visit growth – since November 2023, the share of visitors coming to Barnes & Noble from their home location or headed straight home after a trip to the book retailer has also grown. This visitation pattern suggests that Barnes & Noble is becoming a primary destination for consumers rather than an incidental stop on the way to or from another errand – underscoring the chain’s restored relevance in the wider retail landscape.
Who will dominate the holiday season and top the Placer.ai 100 Retail & Dining Index in December 2024?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
After reaching new heights in October 2024, how did the office recovery fare in November? We dove into the data to find out.
In November 2024, visits to office buildings nationwide were 62.4% of what they were in November 2019, down from 66.7% in November 2023. This marks the most substantial drop in office foot traffic since January 2024 – and a sharp decline from October 2024.
But though significant, November’s downturn is likely a reflection of this year’s record-breaking Thanksgiving travel rather than of any real office recovery slowdown. Millions of Americans took to the skies and roads to spend the holiday with loved ones. And with remote work making it easier than ever before for professionals to plug in from virtually anywhere, many likely extended their trips without taking extra days off – leading to fewer office visits in the days leading up to the holiday.
Taking a look at regional trends, Miami continued to outshine other cities in November 2024, with visits at 84.0% of pre-pandemic levels – perhaps due in part to strict return-to-office (RTO) policies implemented by major players within the city’s growing tech and finance sector. New York came in second with recovery at 81.9%, while San Francisco continued to lag behind other major cities. But with major projects like the September 2024 grand opening of the revamped Transamerica Pyramid set to revitalize the city’s Financial District, more accelerated recovery may be ahead for this West Coast hub.
Indeed, San Francisco was among November 2024’s regional leaders for year over year (YoY) office visit growth. Nationwide, office building foot traffic was down 6.5% YoY. But in San Francisco, visits increased 1.6% – likely bolstered by recent RTO mandates from major local employers like Salesforce. The city’s temperate climate may also have played a role in encouraging residents to stay local for the holidays. Miami, too – a popular holiday destination in its own right – saw visits increase 1.7% YoY.
Denver, meanwhile, experienced its fourth snowiest November on record, which may have contributed to a larger portion of its workforce embracing remote work during the month – and an 11.3% YoY visit decline. And in New York, extended “workcations” by remote-capable finance employees, as well as potential disruptions in public transit and increased congestion during the holiday season, may have fueled a larger-than-average drop. Given the Big Apple’s strong overall recovery trajectory, we will likely see a rebound to more robust YoY growth by January, when the holiday season winds down.
While Thanksgiving travel created a temporary headwind for office recovery, cities like Miami and San Francisco demonstrate that the story is far from uniform. And looking ahead to the coming months, the office recovery still appears poised to continue apace.
For more data-driven office recovery analyses, follow Placer.ai.
Following weaker foot traffic performances in September and October, mall visits swung positive in November: Indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls received year-over-year (YoY) visit boosts of 6.4%, 4.8%, and 3.8%, respectively. The strong YoY growth across all mall types underscores the continued attraction of brick-and-mortar retail – particularly during the holiday season.
While much of the November boost is likely due to the malls’ strong Black Friday performance, foot traffic data indicates that early deals also drove visits before the big day: Comparing daily visits during the week before Black Friday (from Friday November 22nd to Wednesday November 27th) to visits during the equivalent days in 2023 (November 17th to 22nd 2023) reveals that malls received more pre-Black Friday mall visits this year than in 2023.
This willingness to shop ahead of Black Friday instead of waiting for the best deals on the day itself may highlight the effectiveness of retailers’ early promotions– or it could signal the readiness of some consumers to spend more freely this holiday season.
Still, despite the positive pre-Black Friday showing, the majority of the November visit boost can likely be attributed to malls’ impressive Black Friday Performance. All three formats saw YoY visit growth over Black Friday weekend, with open-air shopping centers seeing the largest visit increases – foot traffic for this sub-category was up 6.0% compared to Black Friday weekend 2023. In fact, this year’s Black Friday numbers were so strong that visits to indoor malls and open-air shopping centers even exceeded pre-pandemic Black Friday weekend.
These numbers reveal that, despite the rise in early Black Friday deals and online shopping, many consumers still want to experience the excitement of Black Friday bargain hunting in person. And this powerful kickoff to the 2024 holiday season indicates that the unique experiential offering of malls – combining shopping, dining, and entertainment all under one roof – continue to play a central role in the wider retail landscape.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai.
Hot on the heels of last year’s Barbenheimer phenomenon, 2024 brought us “Glicked”— the powerhouse pairing of Gladiator II and Wicked that lit up movie theaters across the country. How did these box office juggernauts – followed just a few days later by Disney’s much-anticipated release of Moana 2 – impact movie theater foot traffic during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend?
We dove into the data to find out.
On its premiere day (Friday, November 22nd, 2024) “Glicked” drew a 69.2% increase in movie theater visits compared to the daily average between June 1, 2023 and December 1, 2024. By Saturday, November 23rd, foot traffic surged by a dramatic 147.3%, solidifying the weekend as one of the most memorable of the year. And on Wednesday, November 27th, the release of Moana 2 drove an impressive 142.6% foot traffic increase.
But the real box office magic came on Black Friday (November 29th), when the combined power of Glicked, Moana 2, and the holiday shopping frenzy fueled an epic 263.2% surge in theater visits – making November 29th the third busiest for theaters since June 1st 2023. Foot traffic to movie theaters on this year’s Black Friday even outpaced the unforgettable levels seen on Barbenheimer Saturday (July 22nd, 2023), when visits soared to 241.0% above the daily average.
Black Friday is always a busy time for movie theaters. In 2019, movie theater visits on Black Friday (November 29th, 2019) were up 80.2% compared to an average 2019 Friday – while in 2022 and 2023 (November 25th, 2022 and November 24th, 2023), they were up 40.8% and 39.4% compared to an average Friday for each of those years.
And in 2024, Black Friday cinematic foot traffic surged past previous years’ benchmarks – surpassing even pre-pandemic levels. On November 29th, 2024, visits to movie theaters were 13.1% higher than on Black Friday in 2019 – and the effect lasted through the weekend, pushing visits up 9.5% and 27.8% on the Saturday and Sunday after Thanksgiving compared to the equivalent period of 2019.
But the Black Friday foot traffic surge wasn’t distributed equally throughout the day. Unsurprisingly given the holiday weekend, morning and early afternoon screenings saw the most impressive visit increases – with foot traffic up an incredible 524.0% between 11:00 AM and 2:00 PM compared to an average year-to-date (YTD) Friday. Afternoons (2:00 PM–5:00 PM) weren’t far behind, with visits climbing 389.9%. But impressively, even though Friday evenings are typically busy times for movie theaters year round, visits on the evening of Black Friday surged by more than 200% between 5:00 PM and 11:00 PM.
Black Friday’s box office boost also wasn’t evenly spread across the map. Leading the charge was the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington area, where theater visits soared by an astonishing 373.5% compared to its 2024 year-to-date average. Close on its heels were Washington, D.C. (322.8%) and New York (321.9%), proving that East Coast audiences were all in for some big-screen magic.
Interestingly, Black Friday was less resonant on the West Coast, particularly in California, where the cultural pull of the big shopping day seems to be less strong. Los Angeles, for example, saw a more modest boost in visits, reflecting the region’s typically lighter Black Friday enthusiasm.
Black Friday, it turns out, isn’t just about shopping – it also has the power to supercharge movie theater foot traffic. And while Gladiator II, Wicked, and Moana 2 all drew crowds on their opening days, the strategic timing of their pre-holiday releases drove a Black Friday visit surge for the ages. Whether driven by the thrill of a new hit or the magic of the holiday season, people are returning to theaters – and in record numbers.
For more data-driven consumer behavior insights, visit placer.ai.
Holiday shoppers in November 2024 turned out in greater numbers than last year, particularly at malls. Following a strong spring and summer year-over-year performance (despite April having one fewer weekend and Easter falling in March, as well as July having one less weekend than 2023), and a weaker early fall, it seems many consumers held off on their mall visits until November.
Indoor malls saw the highest total visits, followed by open-air lifestyle centers and outlet malls.
Deal-hunting was a major theme this year, drawing shoppers in large numbers to outlet malls. For most of November, Arundel Mills in Hanover, MD, led in total visits. However, when it came to post-Thanksgiving steps and walking off turkey-induced calories, Ontario Mills in Southern California claimed the top spot. Sawgrass Mills in Florida secured third place, while the Assyrian fortress-themed Citadel Outlets in Los Angeles landed fourth—complete with a massive Black Friday traffic jam on the 5 Freeway. Gurnee Mills in Illinois rounded out the top five for national outlet mall traffic.
We watched Moana 2 on Black Friday at the Outlets of Orange, the sixth most-visited outlet mall in America. Judging by the unbelievably crowded parking lot, it might be worth checking the Placer app for historical traffic comparisons. The silver lining to the 25-minute parking hunt? With half an hour of previews now the norm, no one missed a moment of the movie! The mall was bustling, with lines stretching around the corners of some stores. Crowds filled the main thoroughfare, and eager shoppers formed long queues at popular spots like Victoria’s Secret and Pink.
Shoppers at juniors' retailers like American Eagle needed a bit of patience, as did those heading to Skechers.
Great Lakes Crossing Outlets in Michigan secured seventh place, while Dolphin Mall in Miami, FL rounded out the top eight.
From November 1 to December 1, the top five most-visited indoor malls were Mall of America in Minnesota, Roosevelt Field in New York, Westfield Valley Fair in California, Del Amo Fashion Center in California, and Woodfield Mall in Illinois. However, Black Friday brought a shift in rankings. Woodfield Mall claimed the top spot for Black Friday visits, with the other malls each moving down one position compared to their overall November visitation rankings.
From November 1 to December 1, Ala Moana Center in Hawaii consistently held its #1 spot among open-air shopping centers, including on Black Friday. If you're enjoying the aloha spirit this holiday season, don’t miss unique Hawaiian stores like Honolulu Cookie Co., Island Slipper, and Malie Organics. The rankings saw some shifts on Black Friday, with Irvine Spectrum climbing from third place throughout November to the #2 spot. Easton Town Center secured third place, while St. Johns Town Center and Victoria Gardens rounded out the fourth and fifth spots, respectively, on the busiest shopping day of the year.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
The restaurant space has experienced its fair share of challenges in recent years – from pandemic-related closures to rising labor and ingredient costs. Despite these hurdles, the category is holding its own, with total 2024 spending projected to reach $1.1 trillion by the end of the year.
And an analysis of year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends to restaurants nationwide shows that consumers are frequenting dining establishments in growing numbers – despite food-away-from-home prices that remain stubbornly high.
Overall, monthly visits to restaurants were up nearly every month this year compared to the equivalent periods of 2023. Only in January, when inclement weather kept many consumers at home, did restaurants see a significant YoY drop. Throughout the rest of the analyzed period, YoY visits either held steady or grew – showing that Americans are finding room in their budgets to treat themselves to tasty, hassle-free meals.
Still, costs remain elevated and dining preferences have shifted, with consumers prioritizing value and convenience – and restaurants across segments are looking for ways to meet these changing needs. This white paper dives into the data to explore the trends impacting quick-service restaurants (QSR), full-service restaurants (FSR), and fast-casual dining venues – and strategies all three categories are using to stay ahead of the pack.
Overall, the dining sector has performed well in 2024, but a closer look at specific segments within the industry shows that fast-casual restaurants are outperforming both QSR and FSR chains.
Between January and August 2024, visits to fast-casual establishments were up 3.3% YoY, while QSR visits grew by just 0.7%, and FSR visits fell by 0.3% YoY. As eating out becomes more expensive, consumers are gravitating toward dining options that offer better perceived value without compromising on quality. Fast-casual chains, which balance affordability with higher-quality ingredients and experiences, have increasingly become the go-to choice for value-conscious diners.
Fast-casual restaurants also tend to attract a higher-income demographic. Between January and August 2024, fast-casual restaurants drew visitors from Census Block Groups (CBGs) with a weighted median household income of $78.2K – higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. (The CBGs feeding visits to these restaurants, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each CBG, are collectively referred to as their captured market).
Perhaps unsurprisingly, quick-service restaurants drew visitors from much less affluent areas. But interestingly, despite their pricier offerings, full-service restaurants also drew visitors from CBGs with a median HHI below the nationwide baseline. While fast-casual restaurants likely attract office-goers and other routine diners that can afford to eat out on a more regular basis, FSR chains may serve as special occasion destinations for those with more moderate means.
Though QSR, FSR, and fast-casual spots all seek to provide strong value propositions, dining chains across segments have been forced to raise prices over the past year to offset rising food and labor costs. This next section takes a look at several chains that have succeeded in raising prices without sacrificing visit growth – to explore some of the strategies that have enabled them to thrive.
The fast-casual restaurant space attracts diners that are on the wealthier side – but some establishments cater to even higher earners. One chain of note is NYC-based burger chain Shake Shack, which features a captured market median HHI of $94.3K. In comparison, the typical fast-casual diner comes from areas with a median HHI of $78.2K.
Shake Shack emphasizes high-quality ingredients and prices its offerings accordingly. The chain, which has been expanding its footprint, strategically places its locations in affluent, upscale, and high-traffic neighborhoods – driving foot traffic that consistently surpasses other fast-casual chains. And this elevated foot traffic has continued to impress, even as Shake Shack has raised its prices by 2.5% over the past year.
Steakhouse chain Texas Roadhouse has enjoyed a positive few years, weathering the pandemic with aplomb before moving into an expansion phase. And this year, the chain ranked in the top five for service, food quality, and overall experience by the 2024 Datassential Top 500 Restaurant Chain.
Like Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse has raised its prices over the past year – three times – while maintaining impressive visit metrics. Between January and August 2024, foot traffic to the steakhouse grew by 9.7% YoY, outpacing visits to the overall FSR segment by wide margins.
This foot traffic growth is fueled not only by expansion but also by the chain's ability to draw traffic during quieter dayparts like weekday afternoons, while at the same time capitalizing on high-traffic times like weekends. Some 27.7% of weekday visits to Texas Roadhouse take place between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM – compared to just 18.9% for the broader FSR segment – thanks to the chain’s happy hour offerings early dining specials. And 43.3% of visits to the popular steakhouse take place on Saturdays and Sundays, when many diners are increasingly choosing to splurge on restaurant meals, compared to 38.4% for the wider category.
Though rising costs have been on everybody’s minds, summer 2024 may be best remembered as the summer of value – with many quick-service restaurants seeking to counter higher prices by embracing Limited-Time Offers (LTOs). These LTOs offered diners the opportunity to save at the register and get more bang for their buck – while boosting visits at QSR chains across the country.
Limited time offers such as discounted meals and combo offers can encourage frequent visits, and Hardee’s $5.99 "Original Bag" combo, launched in August 2024, did just that. The combo allowed diners to mix and match popular items like the Double Cheeseburger and Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Wraps, offering both variety and affordability. And visits to the chain during the month of August 2024 were 4.9% higher than Hardee’s year-to-date (YTD) monthly visit average.
August’s LTO also drove up Hardee’s already-impressive loyalty rates. Between May and July 2024, 40.1% to 43.4% of visits came from customers who visited Hardee’s at least three times during the month, likely encouraged by Hardee’s top-ranking loyalty program. But in August, Hardee’s share of loyal visits jumped to 51.5%, highlighting just how receptive many diners are to eating out – as long as they feel they are getting their money’s worth.
McDonald’s launched its own limited-time offer in late June 2024, aimed at providing value to budget-conscious consumers. And the LTO – McDonald’s foray into this summer’s QSR value wars – was such a resounding success that the fast-food leader decided to extend the deal into December.
McDonald’s LTO drove foot traffic to restaurants nationwide. But a closer look at the chain’s regional captured markets shows that the offer resonated particularly well with “Young Urban Singles” – a segment group defined by Spatial.ai's PersonaLive dataset as young singles beginning their careers in trade jobs. McDonald's locations in states where the captured market shares of this demographic surpassed statewide averages by wider margins saw bigger visit boosts in July 2024 – and the correlation was a strong one.
For example, the share of “Young Urban Singles” in McDonald’s Massachusetts captured market was 56.0% higher than the Massachusetts statewide baseline – and the chain saw a 10.6% visit boost in July 2024, compared to the chain's statewide H1 2024 monthly average. But in Florida, where McDonald’s captured markets were over-indexed for “Young Urban Singles” by just 13% compared to the statewide average, foot traffic jumped in July 2024 by a relatively modest 7.3%.
These young, price-conscious consumers, who are receptive to spending their discretionary income on dining out, are not the sole driver of McDonald’s LTO foot traffic success. Still, the promotion’s outsize performance in areas where McDonald’s attracts higher-than-average shares of Young Urban Singles shows that the offering was well-tailored to meet the particular needs and preferences of this key demographic.
While QSR, fast-casual, and FSR chains have largely boosted foot traffic through deals and specials, reputation is another powerful way to attract diners. Restaurants that earn a coveted Michelin Star often see a surge in visits, as was the case for Causa – a Peruvian dining destination in Washington, D.C. The restaurant received its first Michelin Star in November 2023, a major milestone for Chef Carlos Delgado.
The Michelin Star elevated the restaurant's profile, drawing in affluent diners who prioritize exclusivity and are less sensitive to price increases. Since the award, Causa saw its share of the "Power Elite" segment group in its captured market increase from 24.7% to 26.6%. Diners were also more willing to travel for the opportunity to partake in the Causa experience: In the six months following the award, some 40.3% of visitors to the restaurant came from more than ten miles away, compared to just 30.3% in the six months prior.
These data points highlight the power of a Michelin Star to increase a restaurant’s draw and attract more affluent audiences – allowing it to raise prices without losing its core clientele. Wealthier diners often seek unique culinary experiences, where price is less of a concern, making these establishments more resilient to inflation than more venues that serve more price-sensitive customers.
Dining preferences continue to evolve as restaurants adapt to a rapidly changing culinary landscape. From the rise in fast-casual dining to the benefits of limited-time offers, the analyzed restaurant categories are determining how to best reach their target audiences. By staying up-to-date with what people are eating, these restaurant categories can hope to continue bringing customers through the door.
The COVID-19 pandemic – and the subsequent shift to remote work – has fundamentally redefined where and how people live and work, creating new opportunities for smaller cities to thrive.
But where are relocators going in 2024 – and what are they looking for? This post dives into the data for several CBSAs with populations ranging from 500K to 2.5 million that have seen positive net domestic migration over the past several years – where population inflow outpaces outflow. Who is moving to these hubs, and what is drawing them?
The past few years have seen a shift in where people are moving. While major metropolitan areas like New York still attract newcomers, smaller cities, which offer a balance of affordability, livability, and career opportunities, are becoming attractive alternatives for those looking to relocate.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX CBSA, saw net domestic migration of 3.6% – not surprising, given the city of Austin’s ranking among U.S. News and World Report’s top places to live in 2024-5. Raleigh-Cary, NC, which also made the list, experienced net population inflow of 2.6%. And other metro areas, including Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR (3.3%), Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA (1.4%), Oklahoma City, OK (1.1%), and Madison, WI (0.6%) have seen more domestic relocators moving in than out over the past four years.
All of these CBSAs have also continued to see positive net migration over the past 12 months – highlighting their continued appeal into 2024.
What is driving domestic migration to these hubs? While these metropolitan areas span various regions of the country, they share a common characteristic: They all attract residents coming, on average, from CBSAs with younger and less affluent populations.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, relocators to high-income Raleigh, NC – where the median household income (HHI) stands at $84K – tended to hail from CBSAs with a significantly lower weighted median HHI ($66.9K). Similarly, those moving to Austin, TX – where the median HHI is $85.4K – tended to come from regions with a median HHI of $69.9K. This pattern suggests that these cities offer newcomers an aspirational leap in both career and financial prospects.
Moreover, most of these CBSAs are drawing residents with a younger weighted median age than that of their existing residents, reinforcing their appeal as destinations for those still establishing and growing their careers. Des Moines and Oklahoma City, in particular, saw the largest gaps between the median age of newcomers and that of the existing population.
Career opportunities and affordable housing are major drivers of migration, and data from Niche’s Neighborhood Grades suggests that these CBSAs attract newcomers due to their strong performance in both areas. All of the analyzed CBSAs had better "Jobs" and "Housing" grades compared to the regions from which people migrated. For example, Austin, Texas received the highest "Jobs" rating with an A-, while most new arrivals came from areas where the "Jobs" grade was a B.
While the other analyzed CBSAs showed smaller improvements in job ratings, the combination of improvements in both “Jobs” and “Housing” make them appealing destinations for those seeking better economic opportunities and affordability.
Young professionals may be more open than ever to living in smaller metro areas, offering opportunities for cities like Austin and Raleigh to thrive. And the demographic analysis of newcomers to these CBSAs underscores their appeal to individuals seeking job opportunities and upward mobility.
Will these CBSAs continue to attract newcomers and cement their status as vibrant, opportunity-rich hubs for young professionals? And how will this new mix of population impact these growing markets?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven civic news.
