.svg)
Value-oriented retailers Ollie's Bargain Market (OLLI) and Five Below (FIVE) continue their impressive growth trajectory, with Q2 2025 visits surging 18.3% and 14.3% year-over-year, respectively.
Both chains are aggressively expanding their footprints – Ollie's acquired around 40 Big Lots leases and opened 25 of its projected 75 new stores by May 2025, while Five Below plans to add 150 locations this year after opening hundreds in 2024. Critically, the expansions are not coming at the expense of existing stores. Same-store visits grew 9.4% at Ollie's and 5.9% at Five Below, meaning individual locations are actually busier now than last year – despite the larger fleet size.
These positive traffic trends underscore the strong consumer appetite for value-oriented discretionary retail in today's economic environment and highlight the growth potential of the two chains.
Five Below and Ollie's positive visit trends demonstrate that growth doesn't have to be zero-sum. Rather than cannibalizing each other's traffic, both chains are successfully growing in parallel, as their increased store presence and busier locations expand the overall value-oriented discretionary retail market.
This growth can also be seen from the cross-visitation data in the chart below. H1 2025 saw the largest share of Ollie's shoppers visiting Five Below and the largest share of Five Below shoppers visiting Ollie's in recent years. (The cross-visitation from Ollie's to Five Below was likely significantly higher than the reverse due to Five Below's much larger physical footprint.)
This rising cross-visitation between the two chains validates the expanding market opportunity for value-oriented discretionary retail, as consumers increasingly embrace multiple value-oriented shopping destinations to meet their needs.
The strong performance of Five Below and Ollie's in Q2 2025 demonstrates the resilience and growth potential of the discount retail sector during challenging economic times.
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.
Gap Inc. is showing real signs of progress in its turnaround efforts. Since CEO Richard Dickson took the helm in August 2023, the company has been working to revitalize its portfolio of brands – and the latest foot traffic data confirms that strategy is beginning to deliver results.
In Q2 2025, visits to the company’s four banners—Old Navy, Gap, Athleta, and Banana Republic—rose 3.6% year over year (YoY), outperforming the broader apparel category (excluding department stores and off-price retailers), which saw traffic decline 2.2%.
Focusing on the company’s two largest and strongest performers, Old Navy led with a 4.8% increase in overall foot traffic and a 4.5% gain in same-store visits. The namesake Gap brand also posted growth despite a smaller U.S. store base. Notably, overall visits to Gap slightly outpaced same-store sales, signaling that store closures are effectively removing underperformers, while new locations are resonating with shoppers.
Turning to monthly foot traffic trends, both Old Navy and Gap posted significant year-over-year visit gains in April and May 2025 before seeing visitation taper in June and July.
The two chains’ springtime surge may be partially attributed to tariff pull-forward. Following the announcement of new tariffs in early April, many consumers appear to have accelerated purchases to avoid anticipated price increases. This pull-forward effect likely shifted demand into April and May, inflating growth in the short term but contributing to softer traffic in June and July. Memorial Day sales and campaigns like the company’s “Feels Like Gap” campaign may have also resonated with consumers.
Another encouraging sign for the company lies in the shifting income profiles of visitors to its flagship brands.
As illustrated in the chart, the median household incomes (HHIs) of both Gap and Old Navy’s captured markets rose in 2022 and 2023. Inflation and higher prices likely pushed lower-income consumers to trade down to alternatives, leaving Gap and Old Navy with relatively more affluent shoppers.
But since 2023 (for Gap) and 2024 (for Old Navy), HHIs in the chains’ trade areas have begun to decline slightly – suggesting the return of middle-income households. This subtle but meaningful shift indicates that revitalization efforts are reconnecting with the company’s historical core audience – middle-income shoppers who value style at an attainable price point.
Gap Inc.’s Q2 2025 performance provides encouraging evidence that its turnaround strategy is taking hold. Yet the company remains at a delicate juncture. Athleta and Banana Republic continue to lag behind their sister brands, and tariffs represent a significant headwind that could weigh on profitability.
Still, there is reason for optimism. If Gap Inc. can maintain its renewed connection with middle-income shoppers, refine its store strategy, and adapt effectively to the shifting tariff landscape, the momentum seen this quarter could help advance a sustained recovery.
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.
After steep mid-single-digit year-over-year declines in late 2024, Best Buy's (BBY) store traffic is beginning to stabilize. The retailer saw same-store visits fall just 1.5% year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2025, with the decline narrowing further to 1.2% in Q2. Even more encouraging, several months since January have posted flat-to-positive foot traffic growth – a promising trend as Best Buy approaches the all-important holiday season, where it traditionally excels.
Best Buy’s recent traffic improvement likely stems from continued strength in its computing, mobile phone, and tablet offerings – segments with natural upgrade and replacement cycles that many consumers view as essentials. At the same time, foot traffic data indicates that the company’s online channel – which posted a 2.1% increase in U.S. digital sales last quarter – is helping drive quick in-store visits as customers take advantage of fast BOPIS (buy online, pick up in store) options.
As illustrated in the graph below, short-duration visits (under 10 minutes) have consistently outperformed longer ones in 2025, underscoring the role of in-store pickup. In January, short visits jumped 5.3% YoY, likely boosted by Best Buy’s first-ever January Member Deals Days promotion. And in June, short visits increased 4.6% YoY, coinciding with the highly anticipated Nintendo Switch 2 launch, which featured special midnight store openings for eager customers.
While Best Buy trimmed its full-year outlook last quarter and has yet to see a true rebound in store traffic, the narrowing visit gap signals rising consumer engagement. With strengthened omnichannel execution and traffic tailwinds from product launches – as well as the a third-party marketplace set to launch next week – Best Buy may be poised to deliver a strong holiday season ahead.
To see up-to-date retail traffic trends, try Placer.ai's free tools.
The past few years have been challenging for many retail categories, particularly those reliant on discretionary spending. For top athletic retailers like DICK'S Sporting Goods, Academy Sports + Outdoors, and lululemon athletica, this has translated into sustained pressure on physical store visits.
Yet Q2 2025 visit results, when viewed against the backdrop of recent earnings reports, tell a more nuanced story. Rather than succumbing to headwinds, these brands are leveraging strategies from expansion to experiential retail – to weather the storm and position themselves for long-term growth.
DICK’S Sporting Goods provides a case study in mitigating traffic declines through higher ticket sizes, digital acceleration, and a pivot toward destination retail. In Q2 2025, overall visits to the company’s flagship chain declined -5.3% YoY and same-store visits fell -4.5%. Monthly performance was volatile: February and June saw the steepest visit gaps – driven partly by calendar effects (February vs. leap year, June 2025 with one fewer Saturday) and compounded by disruptive weather in both months, from winter storms in February to record heat and flooding in the Northeast in June. Meanwhile, as shown in the graph below, foot traffic in March, May, and July was just below 2024 levels.
Despite these ongoing foot traffic headwinds, DICK'S delivered impressive comp sales last quarter, driven by a 3.7% increase in average ticket size and a 0.8% uptick in total transaction – with e-commerce outpacing overall company growth. The company is also taking proactive steps to shore up its brick-and-mortar appeal, expanding its experiential House of Sport and Field House concepts to make its stores destinations in their own rights. And DICK’s recent Foot Locker acquisition appears to serve the same strategy, leaning into categories where in-person trial and discovery are central to purchase decisions.
Academy Sports + Outdoors also saw same-store visit declines in Q2 2025 (-5.1%), with similar calendar and weather-driven monthly variations. But thanks to strategic fleet expansion, overall quarterly traffic remained relatively stable (-0.9% YoY), with monthly visits even exceeding 2024 levels in May and then again in July.
Online sales (about 10% of the company’s business) also rose 10.2% during the company’s fiscal Q1 (ending May 3rd, 2025), helping offset in-store sales dips and contributing to a 3.7% YoY decline in comps. Academy’s balanced strategy of combining physical expansion with e-commerce strength is enabling the chain to maintain momentum even in a tougher environment.
While Academy widened its guidance range last quarter to reflect macroeconomic risks such as tariff impacts, its continued expansion signals confidence in its long-term trajectory.
Premium athletic retailer lululemon athletica also continues to face consistently lower same-store visits compared to 2024, with overall visits only moderately better.
Like its peers, the brand’s strength lies beyond foot traffic. Growth in direct-to-consumer (DTC) and digital channels paired with higher transaction values allowed lululemon to deliver Americas comps of -2.0% YoY last quarter – a modest decline given traffic headwinds. At the same time, lululemon is expanding its fleet and accelerating international growth, adding further levers for resilience.
Still, the brand’s challenge is clear: to reignite in-store demand by ensuring its locations serve as premium destinations that justify return visits, especially as competition in athleisure intensifies.
Discretionary pullbacks are weighing on athletic retail in 2025. But a closer look at visit data reveals how leading players are adapting.
DICK’S is thriving via ticket growth and digital acceleration, while seeding future trips with its House of Sport/Field House rollout. Academy Sports kept overall visits nearly flat despite a 5.1% same-store traffic dip by leaning into strategic expansion – while also cultivating double-digit online growth. Lululemon has faced the steepest foot traffic drag, but higher transaction values and a bigger DTC mix helped keep domestic (Americas) comps only slightly negative last quarter as the company continues expanding its fleet and growing internationally.
Still, foot traffic remains a critical pillar of long-term growth. Heading into the holiday season, a key test will be whether these retailers can reverse recent visitation trends and draw more consumers back into stores.
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.
Traffic to wholesale clubs is on the rise, with Q2 2025 visits to Costco, BJ's Wholesale Club, and Sam's Club up 3.2%, 5.0%, and 1.6%, respectively, compared to Q2 2024. Same-store visits also increased slightly, with 1.2%, 1.3%, and 1.7% same-store visit growth for Costco, BJ's Wholesale Club, and Sam's Club, respectively.
Last year, Costco and BJ's drove growth through expansion while Sam's Club focused on increasing visits to its existing store fleet. But the Walmart-owned wholesale club is now beginning to expand as well. How might this strategic shift impact traffic to the segment? We dove into the data to find out.
BJ's (BJ) and Costco (COST) are leaning on expansions to drive visit growth, with overall traffic to both chains growing faster than same-store visits, as seen in the chart below. And even with the increased store count, same-store visits to the chains are largely positive – indicating that new stores are not cannibalizing shoppers from existing locations, and that the consumer appetite for membership-based wholesale clubs remains strong.
The companies' traffic growth followed similar trajectories in the first half of 2025: Costco posted slightly stronger numbers in Q1 for both overall and same-store visits, while BJ's outperformed in Q2. July's results reflected this parallel trajectory, with BJ's achieving stronger overall traffic growth (4.7% vs. 3.2%) and Costco seeing better same-store performance (1.9% vs. 1.0%).
While Costco and BJ's expand aggressively, Sam's Club (WMT) has (so far) emphasized store optimization over growth, reflected in the close correlation between overall and same-store visit trends in the chart below. Despite this restrained growth strategy, the Walmart-owned banner has sustained positive year-over-year traffic throughout most of 2025 – demonstrating strong organic growth at existing locations.
Now, the chain appears to be taking a page out of its competitors' expansion strategy book. The company had initiated its strategic pivot in early 2023, with plans to open 30 new stores – but Walmart recently shared plans for a more aggressive expansion of 15 new clubs a year on top of the 30 locations initially announced. With this new strategy, Sam's Club appears to be embracing the expansion-driven growth model that has proven successful for its competitors.
Diving into the visit share distribution between the three analyzed wholesale chains by DMA sheds light on the potential impact of Sam's Club's expansion on the wider wholesale club segment.
Costco and Sam's Club are the larger of the three players: In July 2025, 54.3% of combined visits to the three wholesale clubs went to Costco, and 36.0% went to Sam's Club. (The remaining 9.7% of visits went to BJ's Wholesale Club.)
The maps below shows each chain's regional visit share (by DMA) and highlights the geographic segmentation in the space, which has historically allowed each chain to maintain strong regional footholds with limited direct competition. Costco dominates the West, Sam's Club enjoys the majority visit share in much of the Midwest and South, and BJ's Wholesale Club is popular in the northeast.
But now, as the three chains are expanding beyond their traditional strongholds, the industry may see increased competition for local market share. A new Sam's Club store is slated to open in Arizona where Costco controlled 67.3% of the combined visit share as of July 2025, while a new Costco store recently opened in Texas, where 63.0% of the combined visit share in July 2025 went to Sam's Club. BJ's has also announced plans to expand into Texas and grow its fleet in several other southern states.
As these chains venture beyond their historical strongholds, success will hinge on each operator's ability to adapt their proven regional strategies to new demographics while securing optimal locations before competitors.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Kohl's (KSS) brick-and-mortar stores continue to play in the company's overall business strategy. During the company's first fiscal quarter (ending May 3rd, 2025), in-store comparable sales declined 2.6% year-over-year – aligning closely with the 2.8% same-store visit decline between February and April 2025 – while digital sales fell 7.7%. And while the visit gap has widened slightly since – between May and July 2025, same-store visits declined 3.4% YoY – in-store traffic trends continue to outperform Kohl’s full-year guidance, which anticipated a 4.0% to 6.0% drop in comparable store sales.
The recent softness can be partially attributed to a sector-wide slowdown in June retail traffic, as shoppers who had pulled forward purchases to avoid anticipated tariff-driven price hikes reduced their shopping activity in June. The wider macroeconomic uncertainty also appears to be hitting mid-market discretionary retailers like Kohl's particularly hard, as many middle-income shoppers continue to trade down to value-forward chains and high-income shoppers gravitate to luxury brands.
Macy's (M) reported a 2.0% YoY decline in comparable sales on an owned basis for its first quarter of 2025 (ending May 3rd 2025) – consistent with the 2.2% YoY decline in combined same-store visits at its three major banners (Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury) between February and April 2025.
Like for Kohl's, Macy's same-store visit gap widened in recent months, with combined visits to the three banners down 4.0% YoY between May and July 2025. The company's namesake banner, Macy's, saw the largest traffic declines, while visits to its luxury banners Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury generally increased YoY between May and July 2025. This likely reflects the different economic pressures facing visitors to the Macy's brand: The chain serves a more budget-conscious demographic, with a median household income of $87.7K in H1 2025 in its trade areas, while Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury attract higher-income shoppers with median household incomes of $126.5K and $123.0K, respectively.
This divergence highlights how economic uncertainty is creating a tale of two retails – where luxury resilience and mass market vulnerability are impacting competitive dynamics across Macy's portfolio as well as in the wider retail space.
The softer visit trends at Kohl's and the performance gap between Macy's luxury banners and its namesake brand highlights the challenges faced by mid-market discretionary banners in 2025. As discretionary spending continues to face pressure, retailers serving the middle market may need to adapt their strategies to compete for increasingly budget-conscious consumers.
To see up-to-date department store visit trends, try Placer's free Industry Trends tool.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
The restaurant space has experienced its fair share of challenges in recent years – from pandemic-related closures to rising labor and ingredient costs. Despite these hurdles, the category is holding its own, with total 2024 spending projected to reach $1.1 trillion by the end of the year.
And an analysis of year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends to restaurants nationwide shows that consumers are frequenting dining establishments in growing numbers – despite food-away-from-home prices that remain stubbornly high.
Overall, monthly visits to restaurants were up nearly every month this year compared to the equivalent periods of 2023. Only in January, when inclement weather kept many consumers at home, did restaurants see a significant YoY drop. Throughout the rest of the analyzed period, YoY visits either held steady or grew – showing that Americans are finding room in their budgets to treat themselves to tasty, hassle-free meals.
Still, costs remain elevated and dining preferences have shifted, with consumers prioritizing value and convenience – and restaurants across segments are looking for ways to meet these changing needs. This white paper dives into the data to explore the trends impacting quick-service restaurants (QSR), full-service restaurants (FSR), and fast-casual dining venues – and strategies all three categories are using to stay ahead of the pack.
Overall, the dining sector has performed well in 2024, but a closer look at specific segments within the industry shows that fast-casual restaurants are outperforming both QSR and FSR chains.
Between January and August 2024, visits to fast-casual establishments were up 3.3% YoY, while QSR visits grew by just 0.7%, and FSR visits fell by 0.3% YoY. As eating out becomes more expensive, consumers are gravitating toward dining options that offer better perceived value without compromising on quality. Fast-casual chains, which balance affordability with higher-quality ingredients and experiences, have increasingly become the go-to choice for value-conscious diners.
Fast-casual restaurants also tend to attract a higher-income demographic. Between January and August 2024, fast-casual restaurants drew visitors from Census Block Groups (CBGs) with a weighted median household income of $78.2K – higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. (The CBGs feeding visits to these restaurants, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each CBG, are collectively referred to as their captured market).
Perhaps unsurprisingly, quick-service restaurants drew visitors from much less affluent areas. But interestingly, despite their pricier offerings, full-service restaurants also drew visitors from CBGs with a median HHI below the nationwide baseline. While fast-casual restaurants likely attract office-goers and other routine diners that can afford to eat out on a more regular basis, FSR chains may serve as special occasion destinations for those with more moderate means.
Though QSR, FSR, and fast-casual spots all seek to provide strong value propositions, dining chains across segments have been forced to raise prices over the past year to offset rising food and labor costs. This next section takes a look at several chains that have succeeded in raising prices without sacrificing visit growth – to explore some of the strategies that have enabled them to thrive.
The fast-casual restaurant space attracts diners that are on the wealthier side – but some establishments cater to even higher earners. One chain of note is NYC-based burger chain Shake Shack, which features a captured market median HHI of $94.3K. In comparison, the typical fast-casual diner comes from areas with a median HHI of $78.2K.
Shake Shack emphasizes high-quality ingredients and prices its offerings accordingly. The chain, which has been expanding its footprint, strategically places its locations in affluent, upscale, and high-traffic neighborhoods – driving foot traffic that consistently surpasses other fast-casual chains. And this elevated foot traffic has continued to impress, even as Shake Shack has raised its prices by 2.5% over the past year.
Steakhouse chain Texas Roadhouse has enjoyed a positive few years, weathering the pandemic with aplomb before moving into an expansion phase. And this year, the chain ranked in the top five for service, food quality, and overall experience by the 2024 Datassential Top 500 Restaurant Chain.
Like Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse has raised its prices over the past year – three times – while maintaining impressive visit metrics. Between January and August 2024, foot traffic to the steakhouse grew by 9.7% YoY, outpacing visits to the overall FSR segment by wide margins.
This foot traffic growth is fueled not only by expansion but also by the chain's ability to draw traffic during quieter dayparts like weekday afternoons, while at the same time capitalizing on high-traffic times like weekends. Some 27.7% of weekday visits to Texas Roadhouse take place between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM – compared to just 18.9% for the broader FSR segment – thanks to the chain’s happy hour offerings early dining specials. And 43.3% of visits to the popular steakhouse take place on Saturdays and Sundays, when many diners are increasingly choosing to splurge on restaurant meals, compared to 38.4% for the wider category.
Though rising costs have been on everybody’s minds, summer 2024 may be best remembered as the summer of value – with many quick-service restaurants seeking to counter higher prices by embracing Limited-Time Offers (LTOs). These LTOs offered diners the opportunity to save at the register and get more bang for their buck – while boosting visits at QSR chains across the country.
Limited time offers such as discounted meals and combo offers can encourage frequent visits, and Hardee’s $5.99 "Original Bag" combo, launched in August 2024, did just that. The combo allowed diners to mix and match popular items like the Double Cheeseburger and Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Wraps, offering both variety and affordability. And visits to the chain during the month of August 2024 were 4.9% higher than Hardee’s year-to-date (YTD) monthly visit average.
August’s LTO also drove up Hardee’s already-impressive loyalty rates. Between May and July 2024, 40.1% to 43.4% of visits came from customers who visited Hardee’s at least three times during the month, likely encouraged by Hardee’s top-ranking loyalty program. But in August, Hardee’s share of loyal visits jumped to 51.5%, highlighting just how receptive many diners are to eating out – as long as they feel they are getting their money’s worth.
McDonald’s launched its own limited-time offer in late June 2024, aimed at providing value to budget-conscious consumers. And the LTO – McDonald’s foray into this summer’s QSR value wars – was such a resounding success that the fast-food leader decided to extend the deal into December.
McDonald’s LTO drove foot traffic to restaurants nationwide. But a closer look at the chain’s regional captured markets shows that the offer resonated particularly well with “Young Urban Singles” – a segment group defined by Spatial.ai's PersonaLive dataset as young singles beginning their careers in trade jobs. McDonald's locations in states where the captured market shares of this demographic surpassed statewide averages by wider margins saw bigger visit boosts in July 2024 – and the correlation was a strong one.
For example, the share of “Young Urban Singles” in McDonald’s Massachusetts captured market was 56.0% higher than the Massachusetts statewide baseline – and the chain saw a 10.6% visit boost in July 2024, compared to the chain's statewide H1 2024 monthly average. But in Florida, where McDonald’s captured markets were over-indexed for “Young Urban Singles” by just 13% compared to the statewide average, foot traffic jumped in July 2024 by a relatively modest 7.3%.
These young, price-conscious consumers, who are receptive to spending their discretionary income on dining out, are not the sole driver of McDonald’s LTO foot traffic success. Still, the promotion’s outsize performance in areas where McDonald’s attracts higher-than-average shares of Young Urban Singles shows that the offering was well-tailored to meet the particular needs and preferences of this key demographic.
While QSR, fast-casual, and FSR chains have largely boosted foot traffic through deals and specials, reputation is another powerful way to attract diners. Restaurants that earn a coveted Michelin Star often see a surge in visits, as was the case for Causa – a Peruvian dining destination in Washington, D.C. The restaurant received its first Michelin Star in November 2023, a major milestone for Chef Carlos Delgado.
The Michelin Star elevated the restaurant's profile, drawing in affluent diners who prioritize exclusivity and are less sensitive to price increases. Since the award, Causa saw its share of the "Power Elite" segment group in its captured market increase from 24.7% to 26.6%. Diners were also more willing to travel for the opportunity to partake in the Causa experience: In the six months following the award, some 40.3% of visitors to the restaurant came from more than ten miles away, compared to just 30.3% in the six months prior.
These data points highlight the power of a Michelin Star to increase a restaurant’s draw and attract more affluent audiences – allowing it to raise prices without losing its core clientele. Wealthier diners often seek unique culinary experiences, where price is less of a concern, making these establishments more resilient to inflation than more venues that serve more price-sensitive customers.
Dining preferences continue to evolve as restaurants adapt to a rapidly changing culinary landscape. From the rise in fast-casual dining to the benefits of limited-time offers, the analyzed restaurant categories are determining how to best reach their target audiences. By staying up-to-date with what people are eating, these restaurant categories can hope to continue bringing customers through the door.
The COVID-19 pandemic – and the subsequent shift to remote work – has fundamentally redefined where and how people live and work, creating new opportunities for smaller cities to thrive.
But where are relocators going in 2024 – and what are they looking for? This post dives into the data for several CBSAs with populations ranging from 500K to 2.5 million that have seen positive net domestic migration over the past several years – where population inflow outpaces outflow. Who is moving to these hubs, and what is drawing them?
The past few years have seen a shift in where people are moving. While major metropolitan areas like New York still attract newcomers, smaller cities, which offer a balance of affordability, livability, and career opportunities, are becoming attractive alternatives for those looking to relocate.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX CBSA, saw net domestic migration of 3.6% – not surprising, given the city of Austin’s ranking among U.S. News and World Report’s top places to live in 2024-5. Raleigh-Cary, NC, which also made the list, experienced net population inflow of 2.6%. And other metro areas, including Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR (3.3%), Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA (1.4%), Oklahoma City, OK (1.1%), and Madison, WI (0.6%) have seen more domestic relocators moving in than out over the past four years.
All of these CBSAs have also continued to see positive net migration over the past 12 months – highlighting their continued appeal into 2024.
What is driving domestic migration to these hubs? While these metropolitan areas span various regions of the country, they share a common characteristic: They all attract residents coming, on average, from CBSAs with younger and less affluent populations.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, relocators to high-income Raleigh, NC – where the median household income (HHI) stands at $84K – tended to hail from CBSAs with a significantly lower weighted median HHI ($66.9K). Similarly, those moving to Austin, TX – where the median HHI is $85.4K – tended to come from regions with a median HHI of $69.9K. This pattern suggests that these cities offer newcomers an aspirational leap in both career and financial prospects.
Moreover, most of these CBSAs are drawing residents with a younger weighted median age than that of their existing residents, reinforcing their appeal as destinations for those still establishing and growing their careers. Des Moines and Oklahoma City, in particular, saw the largest gaps between the median age of newcomers and that of the existing population.
Career opportunities and affordable housing are major drivers of migration, and data from Niche’s Neighborhood Grades suggests that these CBSAs attract newcomers due to their strong performance in both areas. All of the analyzed CBSAs had better "Jobs" and "Housing" grades compared to the regions from which people migrated. For example, Austin, Texas received the highest "Jobs" rating with an A-, while most new arrivals came from areas where the "Jobs" grade was a B.
While the other analyzed CBSAs showed smaller improvements in job ratings, the combination of improvements in both “Jobs” and “Housing” make them appealing destinations for those seeking better economic opportunities and affordability.
Young professionals may be more open than ever to living in smaller metro areas, offering opportunities for cities like Austin and Raleigh to thrive. And the demographic analysis of newcomers to these CBSAs underscores their appeal to individuals seeking job opportunities and upward mobility.
Will these CBSAs continue to attract newcomers and cement their status as vibrant, opportunity-rich hubs for young professionals? And how will this new mix of population impact these growing markets?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven civic news.
