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This week, we attended the Restaurant Finance & Development Conference (RFDC) in Las Vegas, a gathering of industry leaders including senior executives, real estate professionals, franchise groups, investors, and analysts. Similar to insights from last month’s Fast Casual Executive Summit, many operators acknowledged that 2024 has been a challenging year but expressed cautious optimism as they look ahead to 2025.
Restaurant operators have faced numerous headwinds this year, including inconsistent weather, heightened promotional activity across all tiers, increased competition from other food retail channels, elevated labor costs and shortages, and unfavorable lease terms contributing to a rise in bankruptcies. In Q3 2024, most restaurant chains experienced flat or declining visit-per-location trends, as shown below.
Still, some chains managed to achieve impressive growth in visitation per location this past quarter. Below, we highlight the top-performing limited-service restaurant chains (including QSR, fast casual, and coffee/beverage categories with more than 20 units) based on year-over-year visitation per location during Q3 2024.
The most striking takeaway from this chart is that these standout restaurant chains largely avoided the "value wars" seen across the industry this year. Instead, they leaned on menu innovation—chains like CAVA, Chipotle, and Wingstop introduced new offerings that didn’t overly complicate preparation—and operational excellence, particularly in drive-thru efficiency, with leaders such as 7 Brew, Raising Cane’s, In-N-Out, and Culver’s driving visit growth.
Reflecting on the success of these chains, it’s unsurprising that a major theme among restaurant operators at the RFDC event was maximizing returns from existing locations rather than prioritizing unit expansion in 2025. Many chains emphasized improving operations, including simplifying menus to boost throughput while still allowing limited-time offers to drive demand. Others highlighted technology-driven solutions, such as automated make lines and AI-powered voice ordering for drive-thrus. Additionally, executives explored alternative strategies to enhance unit-level returns, including expanded catering services and leveraging retail media opportunities.
What else is on restaurant operators’ minds as we look ahead to 2025?
The festive season is upon us, making it the perfect time to focus on a retail category that truly shines in Q4 2024: gifting, books, and paper. Despite the digital age, consumers continue to show a strong preference for shopping for these items in-store and still value tangible versions of these products. However, as discretionary retail faces challenges in meeting consumer expectations, has this category managed to capture consumer excitement and deliver delight amidst competing distractions and purchase priorities?
The book, paper, and gift market has experienced mixed performance among retailers this year, but even those facing year-over-year traffic declines have opportunities to improve. Barnes & Noble continues to set the standard, particularly in a category that was among the first to face e-commerce disruption; compared to 2019, visits are up 7% in 2024 despite a smaller store footprint. Paper Source is down 2% year-over-year in visits but is maintaining trends consistent with 2023. Similarly, Hallmark stores have seen a 2% decline in traffic year-to-date, though this aligns with a 5% reduction in store count. Notably, The Paper Store, a Northeastern chain of Hallmark Gold Crown stores, has outperformed the broader Hallmark brand by positioning itself more as a gift-first retailer, with cards and stationery playing a secondary role.
The book, paper, and gift market has experienced mixed performance among retailers this year, but even those facing year-over-year traffic declines have opportunities to improve. Barnes & Noble continues to set the standard, particularly in a category that was among the first to face e-commerce disruption; compared to 2019, visits are up 7% in 2024 despite a smaller store footprint. Paper Source is down 2% year-over-year in visits but is maintaining trends consistent with 2023. Similarly, Hallmark stores have seen a 2% decline in traffic year-to-date, though this aligns with a 5% reduction in store count. Notably, The Paper Store, a Northeastern chain of Hallmark Gold Crown stores, has outperformed the broader Hallmark brand by positioning itself more as a gift-first retailer, with cards and stationery playing a secondary role.
Barnes & Noble's consistent and sustainable traffic growth can be attributed to several successful initiatives. The retailer has expanded its product categories, doubled down on gifting, strengthened its position as a third space, and tapped into consumers' enduring love for books—all of which have set it apart in a challenging discretionary retail landscape. The effectiveness of these efforts is reflected in the chain's dwell time, which averages 37 minutes—nearly 10 minutes longer than any of the other chains reviewed—and excels at keeping visitors in-store for over 30 minutes.
Barnes & Noble has done an impressive job of evolving its visitor demographics over time, particularly in the face of the digital revolution and the disruption of the book category. The success of specialty retailers often reflects broader cultural movements and shifts in consumer preferences, and Barnes & Noble is no exception. According to PersonaLive customer segments, the chain has significantly increased its penetration of younger consumer segments, such as Young Professionals and Young Urban Singles, when comparing 2024 year-to-date with 2019. Factors contributing to this trend could include the rise of book club culture among younger cohorts, the appeal of working from the in-store café, and an expanded assortment of gifts and paper products for special occasions.
This focus on younger consumers seems to be paying off. In 2024, 6% of Barnes & Noble visitors also shopped at a Hallmark location, although only 1% visited Paper Source, its sister brand. The integration of Paper Source shop-in-shops within Barnes & Noble locations may be cannibalizing cross-visitation between the two standalone chains.
As for Paper Source, it shares many of the elements driving Barnes & Noble's success but faces challenges in fully unlocking its potential. One key differentiator is its invitation business, but as consumers increasingly turn to digital platforms like Facebook or Paperless Post for invitations, even the booming wedding market hasn’t been enough to significantly drive growth.
A significant challenge for Paper Source comes from competition within the superstore category. This year, 87% of Paper Source visitors also shopped at Target, and 63% visited Walmart. Both retailers have invested heavily in expanding their party supplies, cards, and gifting assortments, making it more convenient for shoppers to purchase these items during a single trip, rather than visiting a separate specialty store.
Paper Source has a strong demographic foundation to build upon as it works toward stabilization. According to PersonaLive, the chain significantly outperforms Barnes & Noble in visitation percentages among Ultra Wealthy Families, Young Professionals, and Educated Urbanites, with Ultra Wealthy Families accounting for nearly a quarter of its visitors. Its frequent co-tenants reflect similar socio-economic patterns, aligning with successful specialty chains that appeal to wealthier shoppers, such as lululemon, Sephora, Anthropologie, Warby Parker, Madewell, and Apple. With these favorable dynamics in place, Paper Source has an opportunity to thrive—success may depend on effective messaging and marketing to this affluent customer base.
The differences between Hallmark stores and The Paper Store highlight contrasting strategies: one chain has successfully expanded its product offerings to capture a more engaged audience, while the other remains closely tied to the traditional paper category and has struggled to do the same. There is little overlap in visitation between the two chains, suggesting that consumers may perceive The Paper Store as entirely separate from Hallmark, despite its status as a Gold Crown retailer.
The Paper Store’s elevated and expanded assortment has fostered stronger loyalty among its visitors compared to the Hallmark chain. In 2024, loyal visitors—defined as those visiting twice per month—accounted for 12% of The Paper Store’s visitors, 2 percentage points higher than Hallmark. Additionally, The Paper Store serves more as a destination, with 37% of visitors heading home afterward, also 2 points higher than Hallmark. By expanding its product categories and curating localized selections, The Paper Store has successfully differentiated itself from the traditional Hallmark model, a strategy that could benefit the national chain as well.
The gifting, book, and paper retail category demonstrates varied consumer behavior across chains. The success of Barnes & Noble and The Paper Store underscores the importance of expanding product assortments to attract visits, as consumers increasingly seek convenience by consolidating their purchases in fewer trips. While consumers may tolerate more frequent visits for essential retail, in specialty retail, convenience and variety are critical. The category’s overall resilience suggests that consumers still have discretionary spending power for the right products at the right time, offering hope for retailers still refining their approach.
The sporting goods and sportswear category has had a rough couple of months. Two mainstays in the space – Bob’s Stores and Eastern Mountain Sports – filed for bankruptcy in June, and several sportswear and athleisure leaders posted disappointing results. So is the consumer demand for leggings and sneakers waning? Or is the category merely facing a temporary slowdown? We dove into the data to find out.
With budgets still tight, many shoppers are turning to value apparel and value athletic wear – and this trading down may be impacting the sporting goods and sportswear space: Q3 2024 visits to most sporting goods and athletic wear chains analyzed, including DICK’s Sporting Goods, Athleta, Academy Sports + Outdoor, and Hibbett Sports, remained at or moderately below 2023 levels. Still, the relatively minimal visit gaps indicate that demand for the category remains stable and may rise again with increased consumer confidence.
Meanwhile, lululemon athletica saw a 7.6% increase in YoY visits in Q3 2024 thanks to the company’s ongoing expansion.
But even as the sporting goods and sportswear category may be facing a temporary lull, diving into the demographics of the trade areas for the various retailers reveals the variety of sporting goods and sportswear consumers – showing the varied demand for the category.
The median household income within the trade areas of the five chains analyzed ranged from $54.8K for Hibbett Sports to $108.3K for Athleta. The share of households with children within the trade areas also varied among the chains: DICK’s Sporting Goods, and Academy Sports + Outdoors included significantly more households with children in their captured markets when compared with Athleta, lululemon, or Hibbett Sports.
It seems, then, that each chain appeals to a specific consumer segment – DICK’s and Academy Sports both serve families, although DICK’s attracts the higher-income households and Academy Sports draws more middle-income shoppers. Lululemon and Athleta both operate at the higher-end of the athletic wear spectrum, but Athleta shoppers tend to come from slightly more affluent areas with larger household sizes. And Hibbett has carved out a niche among lower-income consumers.
Demand for sportswear and gym gear may not be as strong as it was at the height of the pandemic when gyms were closed and consumers were doubling down on comfort. But the variety of audiences within the category leaders’ trade areas indicates that appetite for athletic wear and sporting goods is still widespread. And with Black Friday around the corner, these chains – and especially the higher-priced retailers among them – may well get a boost from price-conscious consumers looking to snag discounts at their favorite premium chains.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai.
About the Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining: The Placer 100 Index for Retail and Dining is a curated, dynamic list of leading chains that often serve as prime tenants for shopping centers and malls. The index includes chains from various industries, such as superstores, grocery, dollar stores, dining, apparel, and more. Among the notable chains featured are Walmart, Target, Costco, Kroger, Ulta Beauty, The Home Depot, McDonald’s, Chipotle, Crunch Fitness, and Trader Joe's. The goal of the list is to provide insight into the wider trends impacting the retail, dining and shopping center segments.
Visits to the Placer 100 Index chains grew over the summer, as the back to school season drove a 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) jump in August 2024 visits. And visits in September 2024 were essentially on par with September 2023 levels – indicating that shoppers did not stay home to make up for retail’s summer surge, which could signal an increased willingness to spend ahead of the critical Q4.
And indeed, the fourth quarter of the year started strong, with the Placer 100 Index up 1.4% YoY in October 2024 – and with consumer confidence recently hitting a 9-months-high, the upcoming holiday season looks particularly promising.
Chili’s Grill & Bar topped the Placer 100 October chart in terms of both overall and per-location visit growth. The chain is still riding the wave of its Big Smasher Burger success, which sent visits skyrocketing following the product’s launch in late April. Warby Parker also saw impressive increases in overall visits and in visits per location as the chain continued opening new stores and adding eye exam offerings to existing locations.
Aldi and Crunch Fitness also saw growth in both metrics, with the increase in overall visits outpacing the strong increase in visits per location – pointing to a successful expansion strategy.
Hobby Lobby and Wendy’s also experienced increases in both overall visits and visits per location in October, with different paths leading to the two chains’ October successes.
Hobby Lobby’s visits follow clear seasonal patterns. The chain’s traffic usually peaks in December, but traffic already begins to rise in August as parents and teachers stock up on supplies and classroom decorations. Visit growth then ramps up throughout September and October as consumers purchase Halloween-themed costumes and decorations. So far, Hobby Lobby appears to be having a particularly successful year, with visits outpacing last year’s numbers since the summer – and with the chain’s busiest season of the year coming up, Hobby Lobby is positioned to close out the year with a bang.
Wendy’s, meanwhile, demonstrated how chains can create their own growth opportunities without aligning with existing calendar-driven spending occasions. The chain introduced the Krabby Patty Kollab menu items on October 2nd to celebrate the 25th anniversary of "SpongeBob SquarePants,” which sent visits surging. And YoY traffic was still up four weeks later, revealing the potential of LTOs to drive up dining traffic even in the absence of a specific seasonal boost.
Which chains will top the Placer 100 Index in November?
Visit placer.ai to find out!
Note: This post utilizes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1. and thus reflects minor adjustments in data from previous reports.
Amazon, Dell, Goldman Sachs, Walmart, UPS – these are just a few of the major employers that have been cracking down on remote work in recent months, some requiring their teams to be on-site full time.
So with summer behind us, we dove into the data to assess the impact these accumulating RTO mandates are having on the ground. Are offices continuing to fill up, or has the office recovery run its course?
In October 2024, office visits nationwide were 34.0% below October 2019 levels. And looking at monthly fluctuations in office foot traffic over the past five years shows that the RTO remains in full swing – with last month’s visits reaching the highest point seen since February 2020.
Digging down into regional data shows that in several major hubs – including Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Denver, Washington, D.C., Chicago, and San Francisco – October 2024 was the single busiest in-office month since COVID. And in Boston, Los Angeles, Miami, and New York, October was the second-busiest month, outpaced only by July.
Still, New York and Miami continued to lead the regional office recovery pack, with October 2024 visits in the two cities up to 86.2% and 82.6%, respectively, of 2019 levels. The two hubs, joined by Atlanta and Dallas, continued to outperform the nationwide average. And Houston, which lagged behind other major business hubs during the summer in the wake of major storms, reclaimed its position just under the nationwide baseline.
In October 2024, visits to office buildings in Washington D.C. increased 16.4% year over year (YoY), likely boosted by an RTO push meant to increase meaningful in-person work in federal agencies – though many government employees continue to telework. Boston, where office building occupancy is outperforming national levels, visits saw a 15.6% YoY uptick. And Atlanta, where major employers from UPS to NCR Voyix are requiring workers to show their faces five days a week, saw visits grow 13.8% YoY.
Nationwide, office foot traffic increased 10.1% YoY – showing that the return-to-office is still very much a work in progress.
Office attendance fosters creativity, mutual learning, and a sense of community – and can be critical for early-career success. But working from home at least some of the time offers greater flexibility that can improve employees’ work-life balance and in some cases, even enhance productivity. How will companies and employees continue to navigate the ongoing RTO?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven office recovery analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
With the holiday season just around the corner, we dove into the Placer.ai Mall Index to see how these shopping mainstays performed during the fall retail lull.
Following several months of roller-coaster visit trends – as August visits surged compared to last year and September visits dipped year-over-year (YoY) – mall traffic stabilized in October: Last month’s visits to indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls generally matched 2023 visitation trends. The closing of the YoY visit gaps may indicate that consumers are once again ready to spend following the brief September slow-down – boding well for the upcoming holiday season.
Diving into the weekly trends offers even further reasons for optimism: YoY visits over the last two full weeks of October were positive for all three mall categories, with outlet malls in particular seeing the largest YoY increases. Outlet malls’ positive performance during the second half of the month may signal a comeback for the format, which has generally lagged behind indoor malls and open-air shopping centers in recent months.
Unlike certain retail categories that enjoy Halloween-driven visit surges either on the day itself or on October 30th, malls do not appear to benefit from the spooky holiday. Analyzing daily visits reveals that October 30th visits were on par with the daily October average, while October 31st traffic actually took a hit across the three mall formats in the Placer.ai Mall Index.
The dip is likely due to shoppers putting off their mall trips and instead choosing superstores and specialty retailers such as party supply stores and liquor shops for their holiday prep. Stores hoping to avoid the Halloween dip may want to offer special promotions around the day – and managers can also use this information to optimize their staffing schedules on October 31st.
Diving into hourly visit distributions provides even more data for those looking to optimize store performance. On Halloween, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers received a larger share of their visits before 4:00 PM and relatively fewer visits in the evening when compared to an average Thursday in October. So while some consumers did come out to malls in the morning, by evening, many shoppers may have been too busy scrambling to complete their Halloween costume or stock up on candy for the evening. Meanwhile, the Halloween dip in visits to outlet malls appears to have been evenly spaced throughout the day, with hourly visit shares on October 31st closely matching the average Thursday visit distribution patterns.
Store managers operating in indoor malls or open-air shopping centers may use this data to optimize staffing for the afternoon and evening Halloween shifts, while those working at outlet malls may want to reconsider their manpower needs for the day as a whole. At the same time, those looking to draw in more foot traffic may try offering promotions that appeal to early birds or trick-or-treaters.
With October in the rearview mirror, the holiday season is kicking off. How will malls perform?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
The grocery industry has navigated unprecedented challenges in recent years – from pandemic-driven shifts in consumer behavior and supply chain disruptions to rising costs, labor shortages, and increased operational demands. In the face of these hurdles, the category has been pushed to innovate, adapting everything from product selections to shopping formats to meet changing consumer expectations.
But within the grocery industry, some segments resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. This white paper dives into the data to explore two segments that have been leading category-wide visit growth for some time: specialty and fresh format stores, which focus on produce, organic foods, and culturally specific items (think Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and H Mart, to name a few), and value grocery chains like Aldi, WinCo Foods, and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market. Location analytics show shoppers are increasingly drawn to these two grocery store types, a shift that has the potential to reshape the grocery landscape.
How did value and specialty grocery chains perform in Q3 2024 in comparison to traditional supermarkets like Kroger, Albertsons, and H-E-B? How does visitor behavior vary between the three grocery segments, and what differences can be observed in the demographic and psychographic make-ups of their trade areas? The report explores these questions and more below.
The grocery industry has performed well over the past few months, with steady weekly year-over-year (YoY) visit increases throughout Q3 2024. During the week of July 1st, the segment saw a 4.6% YoY foot traffic boost, likely driven by shoppers loading up on ingredients for Independence Day barbecues and picnics. And after tapering somewhat in early August, visits picked up again in September, with YoY increases ranging from 2.0% to 2.9% throughout the month. This positive growth is a good sign for the segment – which has experienced more than its fair share of challenges over the past few years.
Though the grocery category as a whole is thriving, a closer look at different segments within the industry reveals that some are seeing more significant growth than others.
Indeed, digging deeper into grocery visits throughout Q3 2024 reveals that much of the industry’s growth is being driven by specialty and fresh format stores and value grocery chains. The two segments offer markedly different shopping experiences: Specialty chains tend to emphasize harder-to-find ingredients and fresh produce – sometimes even at higher price points than traditional grocery stores – while value grocery stores focus on affordability. But both categories are experiencing outsize visit growth in 2024, highlighting consumers’ dual interest in both quality and value.
In July and August 2024, traditional supermarkets, specialty grocers, and value chains all experienced positive YoY visit growth. But while traditional grocery stores saw a 3.1% increase in July and just a 0.9% uptick in August, value and specialty chains saw YoY growth ranging from 4.7% to 7.7% during the two months. In September 2024, YoY visits to traditional grocery stores fell by 0.5%, while value and specialty chains saw 5.0% and 5.2% increases, respectively. For today’s consumer, it seems, savings are key – but specialty offerings also resonate strongly.
Today’s grocery shoppers are increasingly embracing specialty grocery options – and analyzing consumer driving habits to grocery stores shows that they are willing to go the extra mile to reach them.
Breaking down grocery visits by distance traveled reveals that just 18.5% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery chains came from less than one mile away in Q3 2024 – compared to 23.9% for traditional grocery stores and 23.2% for value chains. Similarly, 31.3% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery stores originated from one to three miles away, compared to 34.7% and 34.5% for the other analyzed segments.
On the flip side, some 26.4% of visits to specialty and fresh format stores were made by people traveling at least seven miles to do their shopping – compared to 22.7% and 21.4% for traditional and value chains, respectively. Specialty grocery operators can account for this difference, locating stores in areas accessible to geographically dispersed audiences eager to shop their unique offerings.
And a look at changes in visitor behavior at three key specialty chains – Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and Great Wall Supermarket – shows that even as these brands expand their footprints, customers are increasingly willing to travel the distance to visit them. Between 2019 and 2024, all three chains saw a marked increase in the share of visitors traveling over seven miles to shop their offerings. .
Asian grocery chain Great Wall Supermarket, a relatively small regional chain with some 22 locations across eight states, saw the most significant increase in visits from afar over the analyzed period. In Q3 2024, 32.3% of visits to the chain originated from seven or more miles away, up from 28.3% in Q3 2019. Ranked America’s Best Supermarket by Newsweek in 2024, the chain’s wide selection of everything from seafood to fresh produce has made it a hit among Asian food aficionados – and as the supermarket’s reputation grows, so does its draw among customers living further away from its venues.
Consumer favorite Trader Joe’s and organic grocery chain Sprouts Farmers Market also grew their shares of long-distance visits between 2019 and 2024 – no small feat for the two chains, given their expansion over the past several years.
This travel distance snapshot serves as a reminder of the unique role played by specialty grocery stores that offer their customers unique shopping experiences, premium or organic products, and culturally specific items. Shoppers will go out of their way to travel to these stores – and even as they expand and become more readily accessible, their growing popularity makes them ever-more attractive destinations for customers coming from further away.
While visitors to specialty grocery chains often travel long distances for unique offerings, cost-conscious consumers at value stores exhibit other behaviors that differentiate them from traditional and specialty grocery shoppers.
The rising cost of living has pushed the discount retail segment into overdrive – and value grocery chains are also benefiting. The category has flourished in recent years, with many bargain-oriented grocery chains adding new stores at a rapid clip to meet burgeoning consumer demand.
Like visitors to specialty grocery chains, value grocery shoppers demonstrate segment-specific behaviors that reflect their preferences and habits. And perhaps most strikingly, foot traffic data reveals that these shoppers tend to stay longer in-store than visitors to traditional and specialty grocery chains.
In Q3 2024, 26.5% of visits to value grocery chains lasted longer than 30 minutes, compared to 23.4% for traditional grocery chains and 23.7% for specialty and fresh format chains. This suggests that these stores attract shoppers who take their time and carefully consider price points, looking for the best value for their dollar – a need that the chains they frequent seem to be meeting.
Given the tremendous success of the value grocery space in recent years, it may come as no surprise that some traditional supermarkets are getting in on the action by opening or expanding discount banners of their own. How do such off-shoot banners impact these grocers’ reach?
Cult-favorite Texas grocery chain H-E-B opened the first branch of its value banner, Joe V’s Smart Shop, in 2010. The discount arm currently includes 11 stores – mainly in the Houston area – with several new stores opening, or in planning stages, in Dallas.
And foot traffic data shows that Joe V's attracts mission-driven shoppers who make less frequent but significantly longer trips than visitors to traditional grocery stores. In Q3 2024, the average visit duration at Joe V’s was 37.8 minutes, compared to just 26.8 minutes at H-E-B – a full 11 minute difference. At the same time, while 38.5% of Q3 visits to H-E-B were made by customers frequenting the chain, on average, at least four times a month, just 11.8% of visits to Joe V’s were made by visitors reaching that threshold.
Joe V’s is also more likely than H-E-B to attract parental households, with 36.8% of its captured market made up of households with children – significantly higher than H-E-B’s 32.0%.
Together, these data points paint a picture of the average Joe V’s shopper: cost-conscious, likely to have children, and inclined to carefully plan shopping trips to maximize savings and cut down on grocery runs. This suggests that they are mission-driven and focused on stocking up rather than running out to grab ingredients as the need arises.
Major grocery store operators often operate a variety of store types at different price points to appeal to as many shoppers as possible, and Hy-Vee is no exception. The regional grocery favorite launched a discount chain, Dollar Fresh, in 2018 and currently operates 25 stores under that banner, aiming to attract middle-class, cost-conscious shoppers.
Using Experian’s Mosaic dataset to analyze Dollar Fresh’s trade area reveals that the chain’s captured market features significantly higher shares of lower-middle-class family consumers than its potential one – highlighting its special draw for these shoppers. (A chain’s potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to population size, thus reflecting the overall makeup of the chain’s trade area. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base. Comparing a chain’s captured market to its potential one can serve as a helpful gauge of the brand’s success at attracting key audience segments.)
In Q3 2024, the “Pastoral Pride” family segment represented 11.4% of Dollar Fresh’s captured market, compared to just 5.3% of its potential market. This over-representation of lower-middle-class consumers from small towns in Dollar Fresh’s captured market indicates that the chain is especially effective at drawing customers that belong to this segment. Though Hy-Vee’s captured market also boasted a higher share of this demographic than its potential one in Q3, the difference was much smaller – and the chain’s overall reach among these consumers was more limited.
In contrast, Hy-Vee excels at attracting “Flourishing Families” – affluent, middle-aged families and couples – who made up 10.3% of the supermarket’s captured market in Q3 2024. Dollar Fresh’s captured market, on the other hand, featured a smaller share of this segment than its potential one – showing that the discount chain is of less interest to these consumers. So while Hy-Vee tends to appeal to higher-income families with more spending flexibility, value-conscious shoppers have been making their way to Dollar Fresh.
This audience segmentation analysis shows how value offerings help grocery chains attract wider audiences – and highlights the advantage of operating multiple store types to appeal to a broader range of shoppers.
People will always need access to a variety of fresh foods – ensuring that grocery stores and supermarkets continue to play a vital role in in the retail landscape. And while the category as a whole has continued to thrive even in today’s challenging environment, specialty and value grocery chains resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. As grocery retailers diversify their formats, those aligning with consumer preferences for affordability, uniqueness, and quality are well-positioned for continued growth.
Malls have come a long way since their introduction to the world in the 1950s. These gleaming retail hubs promised shoppers a taste of the American dream, offering a third place for teens, families, and everyone in between to shop, socialize, and hang out.
And though malls have faced challenges in recent years, as e-commerce and pandemic-induced store closures led to shifts in consumer habits, the outlook is brightening. Malls have embraced innovation, incorporating enhanced entertainment, dining, and experiential offerings that attract a diverse range of visitors and redefine their purpose.
This white paper takes a look at the recent location intelligence metrics to gain an understanding of the changes taking place at malls across the country – including both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers. The report explores questions like: Why do malls experience foot traffic bumps during the summer months? How much of an impact do movie theaters have on mall visits, and what can mall operators learn from the Mall of America and American Dream malls’ focus on experiential entertainment?
Mall visitation is highly seasonal, with strikingly consistent monthly visitation patterns. Each year, visits decline somewhat in February, pick up in March, and begin to trend upward again in May – before peaking again in August. Then, after a slower September and October, foot traffic skyrockets during the holiday season, spiking dramatically in December.
And while these trends follow similar patterns every year, comparing monthly visits throughout 2019, 2023, and 2024 (YTD) to each year’s own January baseline shows that this seasonality is growing more pronounced - especially for indoor malls.
Following a lackluster 2023, visits to both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers peaked higher in March 2024 than in 2019. And this summer, indoor malls in particular saw a much larger visit boost than in previous years. In August 2024, for example, visits to indoor malls were 27.3% higher than in January 2024 – a substantially higher baseline jump than that seen either in August 2019 (17.0%) or in August 2023 (12.0%). And though open-air shopping centers experienced a smaller summer visit boost, they too saw a bigger bump this year than in 2019 or in 2023.
But malls aren’t just seeing larger visit spikes this year relative to their January baselines – they are also drawing bigger crowds than they did in 2023.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers both experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. Indoor malls saw the largest YoY foot traffic boost (3.7%) – perhaps owing in part to 2024’s record-breaking heat, which led many patrons to seek refuge in air conditioned spaces. Still, open-air shopping centers, which feature plenty of air conditioned stores and restaurants, also enjoyed a YoY visit boost of 2.8% during the analyzed period.
Malls’ strong summer baseline and YoY foot traffic growth built upon the strong performance seen during most of 2024 so far, leading to the question: What is driving malls’ positive momentum? We delve into some of the factors propelling these changes below.
One offering that continues to play a significant role in driving foot traffic to malls is on-site movie theaters. Summer blockbuster releases, in particular, help attract crowds to theaters, in turn boosting overall visits to malls.
Much like malls, movie theaters have also proven their resilience over the past few years. While pundits fretted about the theater’s impending death, production houses were busy releasing blockbuster after blockbuster and shattering box-office records at an impressive clip. And while 2023 was certainly a banner year for blockbuster summer releases, 2024 has had its fair share of stunning box-office successes, leading to major visit boosts at theaters across the country.
Analyzing visits to malls with and without movie theaters highlights the impact of these summer Hollywood hits. Between June and August 2024, malls with theaters saw bigger visit boosts compared to a monthly year-to-date (YTD) average than malls without – an effect observed both for indoor malls and for open-air shopping centers.
For both mall types, the gap between centers with and without movie theaters was most pronounced in July 2024, likely owing to the release of Inside Out 2 in mid-June as well as the July releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twister. But in June and August 2024, too, centers with movie theaters sustained particularly impressive visit boosts – a solid sign that movie theaters and malls remain a winning combination.
Malls with movie theaters also drew higher shares of evening visits (7:00 PM - 10:00 PM) this summer than those without. Between June and August 2024, for example, evening outings accounted for 22.9% of visits to open-air shopping centers with movie theaters – compared to 18.2% of visits to centers without theaters. Indoor malls with theaters also saw a larger share of evening visits than those without – 18.1% compared to 15.0%.
This increase in evening traffic is likely driven by major summer movie releases and the flexibility of summer schedules, with many visitors – including families – taking advantage of late-night outings without the concern of early wakeup calls. These summer visitation trends benefit both theaters and malls, opening up opportunities for increased sales through concessions, promotions, and evening deals that attract a more relaxed and engaged crowd.
Analyzing the demographics of malls’ captured markets also reveals that centers with movie theaters are more likely to attract certain family-oriented segments than those without. (A mall’s captured market consists of the mall’s trade areas – the census block groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to the mall – weighted according to each CBG’s actual share of visits to the mall.)
Between June and August 2024, for example, 14.2% of the captured markets of open-air shopping centers with movie theaters were made up of “Wealthy Suburban Families” – compared to 9.7% for open-air shopping centers without theaters.
Indoor malls saw a similar pattern with regard to “Near-Urban Diverse Families”: Middle class families living in and around cities made up 9.0% of the captured markets of indoor malls with movie theaters, compared to 7.1% of the captured markets of those without.
This increase in foot traffic from middle-class and wealthy family segments can be a boon for malls and retail tenants – driving up food court profits and bolstering sales at stores with kid-friendly offerings.
Malls have long positioned themselves as destinations for summer entertainment as well as retail therapy, holding – in addition to back to school sales – events like Fourth of July celebrations and even indoor basketball and arena football games. And during the summer months, malls attract visitors from further away.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls drew 18.2% of visitors from 30+ miles away – compared to just 16.7% during the first five months of the year. Similarly, open-air shopping centers drew 19.6% of visits from 30+ miles away during the summer, compared to 17.1% between January and May.
Extended daylight hours, summer trips away from home, and more free time are likely among the contributors to the summer draw for long-distance mall visitors. But in addition to their classic offerings – from movie theaters to stores and food courts – malls have also invested in other kinds of unique experiences to attract visitors. This next section takes a look at two mega-malls winning at the visitation game, to see what sets them apart.
The Minneapolis-based Mall of America opened in 1992, redefining the limits of what a mall could offer. The mall boasts hundreds of stores, games, rides, and more – and is constantly expanding its attractions, cementing its status as a top destination for retail and entertainment.
Between June and August 2024, Mall of America experienced a 13.8% YoY visit increase, far outperforming the 3.7% visit boost seen by the wider indoor mall space. And as a major tourist attraction – the mall hosted a series of Olympic-themed events throughout the summer – it also drew 41.6% of visits from 30+ miles away. This share of distant visitors was significantly higher than that seen at the mall during the first five months of 2024, and more than double the segment-wide summer average of 18.2%.
The Mall of America also seems to be attracting more upper-middle-class families during the summer than other indoor malls: Between June and August 2024, some 18.0% of Mall of America’s captured market consisted of “Upper Suburban Diverse Family Households” – a segment including upper-middle-class suburbanites – compared to just 11.1% for the wider indoor mall segment. The increased presence of these families at the Mall of America may be driven by the variety of events offered during the summer.
In 2019, the American Dream Mall in New Jersey opened and became the second-largest mall in the country. Since the mall opened its doors, it has also focused on blending retail and entertainment to draw in as wide a range of visitors as possible – and summer 2024 was no exception.
The mall hosted the Arena Football League Championship, ArenaBowl XXXIII, on Friday, July 19th. The event successfully attracted a higher share of visitors traveling from 30+ miles away compared to the average summer Friday – 35.4% compared to 25.7%.
Visits to the mall on the day of the championship were also 13.6% higher than the Friday visit average for the period between June and August 2024, showcasing the mall’s ability to draw in crowds by hosting major events.
Malls – both indoor and open-air – continue to evolve while playing a central role in the American retail landscape. Increasingly, malls are emerging as destinations for more than just shopping – especially during the summer – driving up foot traffic and attracting visitors from near and far. And while much is often said about the impact of holiday seasons on mall foot traffic, summer months offer another opportunity to boost mall visits. Malls that can curate experiences that resonate with their clientele can hope to see foot traffic growth – in the summer months and beyond.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
