.svg)
It’s hard to imagine, but we’ve eclipsed the five year anniversary of the onset of the pandemic lockdowns across the U.S., when the retail industry was transformed overnight. By April 2020, thousands of stores had closed and uncertainty loomed. At the time, it felt like the potential end of physical retail that the industry had been ruminating over for years.
Five years later, the industry looks mostly like it did at the beginning of 2020. Online shopping did not kill physical retail, and although e-commerce adoption has substantially increased since pre-pandemic – fueled by the spike in new online shoppers in 2020 – the vast majority of retail transactions (over 80%) still occur in brick-and-mortar locations.
At the same time, while the retail industry looks similar to itself structurally, there have been numerous changes at the category level. Many large ticket purchases like consumer electronics and home furnishings that experienced a pull forward in demand during the pandemic waned over the past few years. Visits to apparel retailers and department stores looked, for a while, like they would never recover. And as people emerged from their homes or found their way to TikTok, beauty became the in-demand category that spread like wildfire. Grocery shopping went from a mundane chore to a form of consumer escapism in 2020; in many ways, that behavior has stuck for shoppers as they now frequent more grocery chains in their journey.
We’ve also observed some fundamental changes across U.S. consumers; more workers still work from home than before the pandemic, although return to office numbers keep rising. And many city dwellers who migrated during the peak pandemic period still remain in more suburban and rural areas.
So what have the past five years taught us about U.S. shoppers? First, we’ve learned that consumers are much more resilient than we give them credit for as they demonstrated a remarkable ability to both adapt to unprecedented circumstances and return to their former shopping habits once the situation normalized. Second, consumers are very cyclical in their behaviors and interests – five years after the pandemic’s start, many of the categories that suffered are coming back into their own. And, as consumers face different types of economic uncertainty, we should be optimistic that they can weather different types of storms. But perhaps the key lesson from the past five years has been that brick-and-mortar stores serve a distinct purpose to both retailers and shoppers – and that physical commerce is definitively here to stay.
Looking at the Placer 100 Retail and Dining Index reveals that visits to retail and dining locations not only rebounded from the pandemic, but have surpassed pre-pandemic levels. There are a few underlying causes that could have contributed to these changes: store and unit openings, a higher frequency in visits to certain categories, and increased consumer demand.
At the same time, dwell times across the macro retail industry have shifted since the pandemic as consumers are generally spending less time in stores than they did in 2019. There could be a few reasons contributing to this decrease: a higher adoption of e-commerce as a research tool before visiting a store, a higher utilization of BOPIS and curbside offerings, or more frequent visits leading to shorter individual trips but longer overall time in store. Last year (2024) also saw a higher share of weekday visits compared to the pre-pandemic period, where more consumers shopped on the weekend.
From a consumer perspective, as we wrote about recently, higher income households are more important to the retail industry than prior to the pandemic – even though they account for fewer visits overall. Meanwhile, lower income households are visiting retailers more frequently, especially in essential categories, as they look to combat inflationary pressures that exploded since the pandemic.
What did the pandemic reveal about essential retail categories? For many consumers, these segments got them through the peak pandemic time period as discretionary retail locations remained closed. Grocery stores, pharmacies, and superstores provided a sense of normalcy for shoppers as visiting a store became much more than a weekly errand. Today’s shoppers mirror many of those behaviors; they visit these types of retailers more frequently and don’t balk at making an extra trip for that “must-have” item from a specific chain.
Looking at the relative share of visits by category shows that dollar and discount stores gained the most visit share compared to the pre-pandemic trends. These chains have invested heavily in fresh food items and assortment expansion to become more of a destination for shoppers, especially those who are more price sensitive. So while visitation growth to dollar store chains did stagnate in 2024, even as retailers continued to expand store fleets, the leading players in this category have already entrenched themselves deeper into consumers' shopping journey compared to the pre-pandemic period.
Similarly, value based grocers and warehouse clubs have become more frequent stops in consumer daily routines, even if their share of visitation hasn’t risen dramatically. These chains have benefitted from changes in consumer behavior over the past five years: Warehouse clubs were well positioned for consumers who migrated from urban to suburban environments, and value grocery stores such as Aldi and Trader Joe’s became a safe haven for consumers trying to combat inflationary pressures as the country emerged from the pandemic.
The one sector that hasn’t fared as well? The drugstore channel. The increase in visitation during the vaccine roll out period didn’t result in long term sustained traffic, and drugstores with their expansive store fleet have struggled to find their true value proposition as competition from wellness chains (such as GNC & Vitamin Shoppe), beauty retailers, and superstores grew. Drug-based retailers are still working to right size business today, as further constrained shoppers look elsewhere.
Essential retail players have had to contend with ever-evolving consumer needs in the post-pandemic period and continue to play a key role in the return for normalcy. Some sectors have fared better than others, but those that have emerged as winners looked to stay in lock step with their consumers on their journey. Retailers realized that they didn’t have to be the best at everything – experience, convenience, value, and assortment – but they needed to lean into their speciality to be successful.
On the other end of the retail spectrum, discretionary categories have faced headwinds as consumers exited the peak pandemic period. The peak pandemic years (2020 and 2021) were banner years for retail segments that cater to shoppers’ “wants”. But as the need to self-soothe with goods waned and inflationary pressures rose, consumers walked away from many of the retailers who had benefited from their behavioral changes. (The declines in foot traffic in these categories likely also reflected some of the shift to online channels, as most of these retailers were forced to shut their doors during the early days of COVID.)
It’s been a long road to recovery for discretionary businesses, but we began to see some renewed signs of life over the past year. These retailers must remain vigilant in their quest for relevance with shoppers; high levels of uncertainty, debts, and increasing focus on value all still present headwinds for the retail industry – particularly those who focus on satisfying desires instead of needs.
In reviewing the visitation growth since 2022, discretionary retail could be broken into two performance categories: beauty and everything else. As we’ve written previously, the beauty industry was able to ride the wave of post-lockdown consumer behaviors, including the need to replace outdated products that hadn’t been worn while spending more time at home. At the same time, consumers also became more enamored with mass beauty brands, or those sold at drugstores or mass merchants at lower price points. The success of these brands and retailers that harnessed the power of consumer choice, like Ulta Beauty, intersected with a strong consumer desire for value. And although 2024 was a year of reckoning for the beauty industry as the consumer shifts towards other priorities, the category’s strong success during the early post-pandemic period cannot be overstated.
The performance of other discretionary segments has been more mixed. Categories that saw meteoric growth during the pandemic lockdowns – such as home furnishings, home improvement and consumer electronics – failed to sustain momentum. Apparel trends, like the rise of athleisure, had helped drive continued demand to retail chains and department stores even without the need for traditional clothing, and as life got back to normal and these trends faded, retailers saw year-over-year declines in visitation.
But the 2024 data began the slow rebound of some of these categories, particularly in home and apparel. Home furnishings, home improvement, and consumer electronics may continue to see a rebound in 2025 as we enter a new replacement cycle and those who purchased these categories during the pandemic look to refresh their homes and upgrade their technology. Apparel’s rebound can be attributed to a resurgence of national brands as increased use of semaglutide medications and an interest in healthy living drive shoppers to revamp their wardrobes.
The one area of discretionary retail that outperformed its competitors and continues to shine? The off-price channel has had an extraordinary few years of visitation growth since the onset of the pandemic. Off-price retailers have enticed consumers with the perfect blend of value orientation, in-store experience, and immediacy that drive repeat visitation and keep shoppers engaged. The success of off-price retail also underscores the continued importance of physical retailers, despite the initial changes in behavior during the pandemic. This sector of discretionary retail is probably best positioned to handle the potential economic uncertainty of 2025 and beyond.
Overall, the discretionary side of the retail industry has begun to recover from its challenging few years of visitation, but 2025 does pose uncertainty that could impact consumers’ disposable income levels. Retailers that cater to consumers’ “wants” must work even harder to stay on their customers’ radar and entice shoppers to come into physical retail locations instead of shopping online or via social media platforms. As mentioned earlier, high income shoppers are going to become even more valuable to this sector of retail as it tries to maintain momentum.
The retail industry has undergone a tremendous transformation over the past five years. But while so much has evolved, there is still a lot of opportunity for the industry to be more agile in its ability to satisfy consumer demands. Despite the early days of store closures during the pandemic, physical retail not only bounced back, but has flourished. Retailers continue to focus on upgrading store fleets and opening new stores. Stores have moved away from being experiential to trying to just provide a good shopper experience. Retail’s reality is that consumers still face many challenges ahead, especially economic uncertainty. But, the pandemic highlighted the resilience of both retailers and shoppers to support one another, which will hopefully continue into the future of retail.
The battle for theme park dominance in Orlando is heating up this spring and summer. The highly anticipated opening of Universal Orlando Resort’s Epic Universe on May 22nd brings a third theme park gate to the resort, inching closer to the count of Walt Disney World. Universal has been slowly chipping away at Disney’s stronghold over the Orlando market with new resort hotels, water parks and now the addition of a third gate, while Disney has concentrated efforts around upgrades to existing parks and expansion of programs like the Disney Vacation Club.
The opening of Epic Universe reveals some of the tension brewing beneath the surface when it comes to changing consumer demands. Visiting the resorts in Orlando, a rite of passage for many families, has gotten much more expensive in recent years, and theme park ticket prices are similar at both destinations, although Walt Disney World does have a higher overall Median Household Income in its captured market. According to Placer.ai’s cross-visitation analysis, 40% of visitors to Universal Orlando Resort also visit Walt Disney World, signaling that Epic Universe needs to wow in order to keep visitors on property instead of resort hopping.
Placer.ai’s foot traffic estimates show that the two resorts attract slightly different demographic profiles. Walt Disney World attracts a higher distribution of Ultra Wealthy Families and Wealthy Suburban Families, while Universal Orlando Resort captures more visits from middle-income cohorts like Blue Collar Suburbs, City Hopefuls and Near-Urban Diverse Families. There’s even a difference in the young people who visit each resort: Walt Disney World captures more Young Professionals – the potential “Disney Adults” – whereas Universal sees a higher share of visits from Young Urban Singles.
With the year-over-year price increases, even a wealthier base of visitors may not help to sustain visitation with a new theme park opening and uncertain economic headwinds. Both Orlando destinations are up against a changing consumer base and theme park loyalists who expect the highest standard of excellence and innovation.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Visits to brick-and-mortar retail and dining chains fell slightly in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024. The year-over-year (YoY) visit gaps widened to 0.5% for retail while dining visits dropped 1.4% below Q1 2024 levels. And while some of the dip may be due to Q1 2025 having one day less than 2024’s longer February, the decline could also signal a softening of consumer sentiment.
At the same time, the decrease in visits was extremely minor. In the retail space especially, YoY visits were technically negative, but at -0.5% this year’s Q1 visitation trends remained essentially on par with last year’s traffic numbers. The muted dip in visits during this period of economic uncertainty is likely due to the resilience of the U.S. consumer and to the range of budget-friendly retail and dining segments that provide options to even the most price conscious consumers.
Although overall dining visits declined in Q1, some budget-friendly options did experience visit growth. Visits to coffee chains were up 1.7% in Q1 2025, and fast casual and QSR concepts – that operate at a somewhat higher price point – saw a minor traffic drop of 1.4% YoY. Meanwhile, traffic to full-service restaurants declined 3.0% YoY.
These visitation patterns suggest that consumers are still willing to spend on budget-friendly treats, such as a specialty coffee or pastry, and – to a lesser extent – slightly pricier fast-food or fast-casual entrees. But many may be cutting back on meals at sit-down restaurants and redirecting their spending towards more affordable indulgences.
Although overall retail visits remained relatively close to Q1 2024 levels, traffic declined to several essential retail categories – including superstores, gas stations & convenience stores, and drugstores & pharmacies. Retailers in these categories also carry many non-essential items, so the dip in visitation may be due to reduced discretionary spending within those categories.
Meanwhile, visits to the grocery category increased 0.9% relative to last year following three straight quarters of YoY visit growth, and traffic to discount & dollar stores stabilized following several years of rapid growth. This suggests that the competitive pressure from discount & dollar stores on traditional grocery formats may be abating and highlights grocery's ability to withstand challenges in the evolving retail landscape.
Consumers’ budgetary concerns are also evident in the recent performance of the various apparel segments. Off-price continued leading the apparel pack with Q1 2025 visits up 3.2% YoY, while every other apparel segment analyzed experienced a dip in traffic. Sportswear & athleisure in particular – which saw visits surge over the pandemic – saw visits decline for the fourth quarter in a row.
The auto retail space also revealed consumers' relatively thrifty preferences over this past quarter. While visits to auto parts shops & service chains increased 2.5% YoY in Q1 2025, visits to car dealerships fell 4.1% – suggesting that consumers are bringing in their cars for repairs rather than trading them in for newer vehicles.
Q1 2025’s retail and dining visitation patterns suggest that today’s consumer continues to be highly price conscious, with the budget-friendly segment coming out ahead in almost every category analyzed. Retailers and dining concepts who can cater to consumer’s value orientation will likely come out ahead in this increasingly competitive market.
For more data-driven retail and dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Traffic to Albertsons banners has increased steadily over the past couple of years, with visits still significantly higher (10.5%) than in pre-pandemic 2019. So while visits did dip slightly relative to 2023 (-1.1%) – likely due to stabilization following the robust growth of recent years – the minimal decline highlights Albertsons’ capacity to maintain strong foot traffic despite a challenging economic environment.
Zooming into quarterly-level data also highlights Albertsons’ strength. After narrowing its year-over-year (YoY) visit gap from -2.5% in Q2 2024 to -0.9% in Q3 and Q4 2024, Q1 2025 visits are now level with Q1 2024 traffic – suggesting that Albertsons’ visits have indeed stabilized, with the company holding on the gains of the past couple of years.
The company’s resilience in the face of the growing competition from discount & dollar stores is likely contributing to Albertsons’ strength.
Inflation and high prices have had a major impact on grocery shopping behavior in recent years, with discount stores emerging as significant players in the grocery market. Indeed, between 2019 and 2024, the share of visits to the discount & dollar category out of total grocery and discount & dollar store visits increased from 23.4% to 25.5% – likely due to some shoppers favoring more affordable grocery channels over traditional supermarkets. Meanwhile, grocery’s relative visit share decreased, with traffic to the grocery category (excluding Albertsons banners) falling from 67.8% in 2019 to 66.0% in 2024. But Albertsons’ relative visit share remained largely stable during this period – suggesting that, even as budget-conscious consumers gravitate towards discount stores, Albertsons has managed to retain its customer base.
Albertsons, like other grocery stores, has seen an increase in short visits in recent years, leading to shorter average dwell time. Between 2019 and 2024, the average length of stay across Albertsons brands dropped from 22.7 minutes to 21.6 minutes.
The drop in visit duration may be partially attributed to the growing segment of consumers who prefer the convenience of picking up their groceries via lockers or curbside, or who are supplementing their online orders with quick trips in-store. And as Albertsons has invested in curbside pickup, delivery, and online shopping options across a number of its banners, the company is well positioned to meet the demand for flexibility and efficiency in the grocery space.
Diving into some of Albertsons’ biggest brands reveals that visits to most banners stayed relatively close to 2023 levels, with YoY traffic trends ranging from -2.7% to +2.9%. While banners like Albertsons, Safeway, and VONS saw slightly fewer visits in 2024 compared to 2023, Jewel-Osco and Shaw's Supermarket enjoyed YoY visit growth.
Albertsons is making the best of a challenging economic environment, keeping visits close to previous levels and maintaining its share of the grocery visit pie.
Will the grocery banner see visit growth into 2025? Visit Placer.ai for more up-to-date grocery retail insights.
While the U.S. government has currently partially paused its consideration of reciprocal tariffs on global imports, retailers are still bracing for the possibility of future enactment and potential ripple effects across the industry of the tariffs still in place. From rising supply chain costs to shifts in consumer behavior, tariffs have the potential to impact everything from product pricing to in-store foot traffic. And in an environment where consumers remain highly price-sensitive and economic uncertainty persists, understanding how tariffs could influence retail visitation is critical. While we won’t know the full impact until the tariffs are implemented and impacted retailers adjust, Placer.ai visitation data can help evaluate how the proposed tariffs may be shaping consumer patterns and what that might mean for retailers moving forward.
When new regulations like tariffs are introduced, they often create both short-term and long-term effects. In the short term, consumers remain highly price-sensitive following prolonged inflation in key areas such as food, rent, and healthcare. As a result, our visitation data suggests that some consumers acted early to avoid potential price increases tied to tariff implementation. While visit trends for the week of March 24–30, 2025 were also influenced by the timing of Easter in 2024 (which fell on March 31), Placer.ai data indicates a possible pull forward in demand during the weeks leading up to the expected implementation of the latest tariffs—particularly at “stock-up” retailers like warehouse clubs. In fact, warehouse clubs recorded their strongest year-over-year visitation week of 2025 on the week of March 24-30th, while superstores and grocery stores saw declines, likely due to comparisons to strong performance during the same Easter week in the previous year.
Looking at more discretionary retail categories, we also see evidence that consumers were trying to get ahead of tariff implementation. Our data indicates that retailers selling products sourced from countries potentially facing higher tariffs experienced stronger year-over-year visitation trends. The timing of Easter 2024 likely contributed to this boost as well—many of these retailers were closed or operating with reduced hours during that week last year. Categories such as home improvement, electronics, luxury department stores, apparel and accessories, and clothing all saw notable year-over-year visitation increases for the week of March 24–30, 2025, as shown below.
While many uncertainties remain around tariff implementation, consumers are likely to increasingly gravitate toward retailers that offer bulk purchasing, strong private label alternatives, and everyday low prices—areas where warehouse clubs and discount grocers with robust private label assortments excel. Similarly, national restaurant chains with streamlined operations, diversified global supply chains, and the ability to scale value-driven promotions will hold a competitive edge. Off-price retailers and thrift stores offering secondhand and resale items may also benefit, appealing to deal-seeking consumers. These types of retailers are often better positioned to absorb rising costs and maintain affordability, making them attractive options in an increasingly inflation-sensitive environment.
Consumer electronics, apparel, luxury goods, and beverage alcohol retailers may be disproportionately affected by potential tariffs due to their heavy reliance on imported products and limited pricing flexibility. Many electronics, luxury, and apparel items are sourced from countries subject to implemented or potential tariffs, which could significantly increase costs in categories already operating with tight margins. For beverage alcohol retailers, tariffs on imported wine, spirits, and specialty ingredients could lead to supply chain disruptions and higher prices, particularly for premium or niche products. In these segments, passing additional costs on to consumers may be challenging in an environment where shoppers remain highly price-sensitive, potentially resulting in decreased demand, inventory issues, and increased reliance on promotional strategies.
As the U.S. moves closer to implementing new tariffs, retailers across categories must prepare for both immediate and long-term impacts. From early signs of stock-up behavior at warehouse clubs to shifting visitation patterns in discretionary categories like apparel and electronics, consumer response is already taking shape. While value-focused retailers and those with operational agility may be better positioned to weather the storm, others – particularly those reliant on imported goods – could face heightened challenges. In this evolving landscape, visitation data can help to assess consumer behavior in real time, helping retailers adapt strategies and remain competitive as the full effects of tariff policies unfold.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
A Minecraft Movie shattered box office predictions with a $162.75 million opening, as eager fans – some tossing popcorn or yelling “chicken jockey” – flocked to theaters nationwide.
On the weekend of A Minecraft Movie’s release (Friday, April 4th to Sunday, April 6th), leading cinema chains AMC Theatres, Regal Cinemas, and Cinemark enjoyed a 92.6% visit boost compared to an average weekend during the past 12 months. Only Moana 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine drew bigger crowds.
And examining daily cinema visit fluctuations this year shows that visits to cinemas peaked on Saturday, April 5th, when foot traffic surged 336.7% above the year-to-date daily average.
Already dubbed “the gamer version” of 1960’s cult film The Rocky Horror Picture Show, A Minecraft Movie has become Warner Bros.’ third-biggest opening of all time. But how long will the film keep drawing crowds?
Follow Placer.ai to find out.
The grocery industry has navigated unprecedented challenges in recent years – from pandemic-driven shifts in consumer behavior and supply chain disruptions to rising costs, labor shortages, and increased operational demands. In the face of these hurdles, the category has been pushed to innovate, adapting everything from product selections to shopping formats to meet changing consumer expectations.
But within the grocery industry, some segments resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. This white paper dives into the data to explore two segments that have been leading category-wide visit growth for some time: specialty and fresh format stores, which focus on produce, organic foods, and culturally specific items (think Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and H Mart, to name a few), and value grocery chains like Aldi, WinCo Foods, and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market. Location analytics show shoppers are increasingly drawn to these two grocery store types, a shift that has the potential to reshape the grocery landscape.
How did value and specialty grocery chains perform in Q3 2024 in comparison to traditional supermarkets like Kroger, Albertsons, and H-E-B? How does visitor behavior vary between the three grocery segments, and what differences can be observed in the demographic and psychographic make-ups of their trade areas? The report explores these questions and more below.
The grocery industry has performed well over the past few months, with steady weekly year-over-year (YoY) visit increases throughout Q3 2024. During the week of July 1st, the segment saw a 4.6% YoY foot traffic boost, likely driven by shoppers loading up on ingredients for Independence Day barbecues and picnics. And after tapering somewhat in early August, visits picked up again in September, with YoY increases ranging from 2.0% to 2.9% throughout the month. This positive growth is a good sign for the segment – which has experienced more than its fair share of challenges over the past few years.
Though the grocery category as a whole is thriving, a closer look at different segments within the industry reveals that some are seeing more significant growth than others.
Indeed, digging deeper into grocery visits throughout Q3 2024 reveals that much of the industry’s growth is being driven by specialty and fresh format stores and value grocery chains. The two segments offer markedly different shopping experiences: Specialty chains tend to emphasize harder-to-find ingredients and fresh produce – sometimes even at higher price points than traditional grocery stores – while value grocery stores focus on affordability. But both categories are experiencing outsize visit growth in 2024, highlighting consumers’ dual interest in both quality and value.
In July and August 2024, traditional supermarkets, specialty grocers, and value chains all experienced positive YoY visit growth. But while traditional grocery stores saw a 3.1% increase in July and just a 0.9% uptick in August, value and specialty chains saw YoY growth ranging from 4.7% to 7.7% during the two months. In September 2024, YoY visits to traditional grocery stores fell by 0.5%, while value and specialty chains saw 5.0% and 5.2% increases, respectively. For today’s consumer, it seems, savings are key – but specialty offerings also resonate strongly.
Today’s grocery shoppers are increasingly embracing specialty grocery options – and analyzing consumer driving habits to grocery stores shows that they are willing to go the extra mile to reach them.
Breaking down grocery visits by distance traveled reveals that just 18.5% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery chains came from less than one mile away in Q3 2024 – compared to 23.9% for traditional grocery stores and 23.2% for value chains. Similarly, 31.3% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery stores originated from one to three miles away, compared to 34.7% and 34.5% for the other analyzed segments.
On the flip side, some 26.4% of visits to specialty and fresh format stores were made by people traveling at least seven miles to do their shopping – compared to 22.7% and 21.4% for traditional and value chains, respectively. Specialty grocery operators can account for this difference, locating stores in areas accessible to geographically dispersed audiences eager to shop their unique offerings.
And a look at changes in visitor behavior at three key specialty chains – Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and Great Wall Supermarket – shows that even as these brands expand their footprints, customers are increasingly willing to travel the distance to visit them. Between 2019 and 2024, all three chains saw a marked increase in the share of visitors traveling over seven miles to shop their offerings. .
Asian grocery chain Great Wall Supermarket, a relatively small regional chain with some 22 locations across eight states, saw the most significant increase in visits from afar over the analyzed period. In Q3 2024, 32.3% of visits to the chain originated from seven or more miles away, up from 28.3% in Q3 2019. Ranked America’s Best Supermarket by Newsweek in 2024, the chain’s wide selection of everything from seafood to fresh produce has made it a hit among Asian food aficionados – and as the supermarket’s reputation grows, so does its draw among customers living further away from its venues.
Consumer favorite Trader Joe’s and organic grocery chain Sprouts Farmers Market also grew their shares of long-distance visits between 2019 and 2024 – no small feat for the two chains, given their expansion over the past several years.
This travel distance snapshot serves as a reminder of the unique role played by specialty grocery stores that offer their customers unique shopping experiences, premium or organic products, and culturally specific items. Shoppers will go out of their way to travel to these stores – and even as they expand and become more readily accessible, their growing popularity makes them ever-more attractive destinations for customers coming from further away.
While visitors to specialty grocery chains often travel long distances for unique offerings, cost-conscious consumers at value stores exhibit other behaviors that differentiate them from traditional and specialty grocery shoppers.
The rising cost of living has pushed the discount retail segment into overdrive – and value grocery chains are also benefiting. The category has flourished in recent years, with many bargain-oriented grocery chains adding new stores at a rapid clip to meet burgeoning consumer demand.
Like visitors to specialty grocery chains, value grocery shoppers demonstrate segment-specific behaviors that reflect their preferences and habits. And perhaps most strikingly, foot traffic data reveals that these shoppers tend to stay longer in-store than visitors to traditional and specialty grocery chains.
In Q3 2024, 26.5% of visits to value grocery chains lasted longer than 30 minutes, compared to 23.4% for traditional grocery chains and 23.7% for specialty and fresh format chains. This suggests that these stores attract shoppers who take their time and carefully consider price points, looking for the best value for their dollar – a need that the chains they frequent seem to be meeting.
Given the tremendous success of the value grocery space in recent years, it may come as no surprise that some traditional supermarkets are getting in on the action by opening or expanding discount banners of their own. How do such off-shoot banners impact these grocers’ reach?
Cult-favorite Texas grocery chain H-E-B opened the first branch of its value banner, Joe V’s Smart Shop, in 2010. The discount arm currently includes 11 stores – mainly in the Houston area – with several new stores opening, or in planning stages, in Dallas.
And foot traffic data shows that Joe V's attracts mission-driven shoppers who make less frequent but significantly longer trips than visitors to traditional grocery stores. In Q3 2024, the average visit duration at Joe V’s was 37.8 minutes, compared to just 26.8 minutes at H-E-B – a full 11 minute difference. At the same time, while 38.5% of Q3 visits to H-E-B were made by customers frequenting the chain, on average, at least four times a month, just 11.8% of visits to Joe V’s were made by visitors reaching that threshold.
Joe V’s is also more likely than H-E-B to attract parental households, with 36.8% of its captured market made up of households with children – significantly higher than H-E-B’s 32.0%.
Together, these data points paint a picture of the average Joe V’s shopper: cost-conscious, likely to have children, and inclined to carefully plan shopping trips to maximize savings and cut down on grocery runs. This suggests that they are mission-driven and focused on stocking up rather than running out to grab ingredients as the need arises.
Major grocery store operators often operate a variety of store types at different price points to appeal to as many shoppers as possible, and Hy-Vee is no exception. The regional grocery favorite launched a discount chain, Dollar Fresh, in 2018 and currently operates 25 stores under that banner, aiming to attract middle-class, cost-conscious shoppers.
Using Experian’s Mosaic dataset to analyze Dollar Fresh’s trade area reveals that the chain’s captured market features significantly higher shares of lower-middle-class family consumers than its potential one – highlighting its special draw for these shoppers. (A chain’s potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to population size, thus reflecting the overall makeup of the chain’s trade area. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base. Comparing a chain’s captured market to its potential one can serve as a helpful gauge of the brand’s success at attracting key audience segments.)
In Q3 2024, the “Pastoral Pride” family segment represented 11.4% of Dollar Fresh’s captured market, compared to just 5.3% of its potential market. This over-representation of lower-middle-class consumers from small towns in Dollar Fresh’s captured market indicates that the chain is especially effective at drawing customers that belong to this segment. Though Hy-Vee’s captured market also boasted a higher share of this demographic than its potential one in Q3, the difference was much smaller – and the chain’s overall reach among these consumers was more limited.
In contrast, Hy-Vee excels at attracting “Flourishing Families” – affluent, middle-aged families and couples – who made up 10.3% of the supermarket’s captured market in Q3 2024. Dollar Fresh’s captured market, on the other hand, featured a smaller share of this segment than its potential one – showing that the discount chain is of less interest to these consumers. So while Hy-Vee tends to appeal to higher-income families with more spending flexibility, value-conscious shoppers have been making their way to Dollar Fresh.
This audience segmentation analysis shows how value offerings help grocery chains attract wider audiences – and highlights the advantage of operating multiple store types to appeal to a broader range of shoppers.
People will always need access to a variety of fresh foods – ensuring that grocery stores and supermarkets continue to play a vital role in in the retail landscape. And while the category as a whole has continued to thrive even in today’s challenging environment, specialty and value grocery chains resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. As grocery retailers diversify their formats, those aligning with consumer preferences for affordability, uniqueness, and quality are well-positioned for continued growth.
Malls have come a long way since their introduction to the world in the 1950s. These gleaming retail hubs promised shoppers a taste of the American dream, offering a third place for teens, families, and everyone in between to shop, socialize, and hang out.
And though malls have faced challenges in recent years, as e-commerce and pandemic-induced store closures led to shifts in consumer habits, the outlook is brightening. Malls have embraced innovation, incorporating enhanced entertainment, dining, and experiential offerings that attract a diverse range of visitors and redefine their purpose.
This white paper takes a look at the recent location intelligence metrics to gain an understanding of the changes taking place at malls across the country – including both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers. The report explores questions like: Why do malls experience foot traffic bumps during the summer months? How much of an impact do movie theaters have on mall visits, and what can mall operators learn from the Mall of America and American Dream malls’ focus on experiential entertainment?
Mall visitation is highly seasonal, with strikingly consistent monthly visitation patterns. Each year, visits decline somewhat in February, pick up in March, and begin to trend upward again in May – before peaking again in August. Then, after a slower September and October, foot traffic skyrockets during the holiday season, spiking dramatically in December.
And while these trends follow similar patterns every year, comparing monthly visits throughout 2019, 2023, and 2024 (YTD) to each year’s own January baseline shows that this seasonality is growing more pronounced - especially for indoor malls.
Following a lackluster 2023, visits to both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers peaked higher in March 2024 than in 2019. And this summer, indoor malls in particular saw a much larger visit boost than in previous years. In August 2024, for example, visits to indoor malls were 27.3% higher than in January 2024 – a substantially higher baseline jump than that seen either in August 2019 (17.0%) or in August 2023 (12.0%). And though open-air shopping centers experienced a smaller summer visit boost, they too saw a bigger bump this year than in 2019 or in 2023.
But malls aren’t just seeing larger visit spikes this year relative to their January baselines – they are also drawing bigger crowds than they did in 2023.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers both experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. Indoor malls saw the largest YoY foot traffic boost (3.7%) – perhaps owing in part to 2024’s record-breaking heat, which led many patrons to seek refuge in air conditioned spaces. Still, open-air shopping centers, which feature plenty of air conditioned stores and restaurants, also enjoyed a YoY visit boost of 2.8% during the analyzed period.
Malls’ strong summer baseline and YoY foot traffic growth built upon the strong performance seen during most of 2024 so far, leading to the question: What is driving malls’ positive momentum? We delve into some of the factors propelling these changes below.
One offering that continues to play a significant role in driving foot traffic to malls is on-site movie theaters. Summer blockbuster releases, in particular, help attract crowds to theaters, in turn boosting overall visits to malls.
Much like malls, movie theaters have also proven their resilience over the past few years. While pundits fretted about the theater’s impending death, production houses were busy releasing blockbuster after blockbuster and shattering box-office records at an impressive clip. And while 2023 was certainly a banner year for blockbuster summer releases, 2024 has had its fair share of stunning box-office successes, leading to major visit boosts at theaters across the country.
Analyzing visits to malls with and without movie theaters highlights the impact of these summer Hollywood hits. Between June and August 2024, malls with theaters saw bigger visit boosts compared to a monthly year-to-date (YTD) average than malls without – an effect observed both for indoor malls and for open-air shopping centers.
For both mall types, the gap between centers with and without movie theaters was most pronounced in July 2024, likely owing to the release of Inside Out 2 in mid-June as well as the July releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twister. But in June and August 2024, too, centers with movie theaters sustained particularly impressive visit boosts – a solid sign that movie theaters and malls remain a winning combination.
Malls with movie theaters also drew higher shares of evening visits (7:00 PM - 10:00 PM) this summer than those without. Between June and August 2024, for example, evening outings accounted for 22.9% of visits to open-air shopping centers with movie theaters – compared to 18.2% of visits to centers without theaters. Indoor malls with theaters also saw a larger share of evening visits than those without – 18.1% compared to 15.0%.
This increase in evening traffic is likely driven by major summer movie releases and the flexibility of summer schedules, with many visitors – including families – taking advantage of late-night outings without the concern of early wakeup calls. These summer visitation trends benefit both theaters and malls, opening up opportunities for increased sales through concessions, promotions, and evening deals that attract a more relaxed and engaged crowd.
Analyzing the demographics of malls’ captured markets also reveals that centers with movie theaters are more likely to attract certain family-oriented segments than those without. (A mall’s captured market consists of the mall’s trade areas – the census block groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to the mall – weighted according to each CBG’s actual share of visits to the mall.)
Between June and August 2024, for example, 14.2% of the captured markets of open-air shopping centers with movie theaters were made up of “Wealthy Suburban Families” – compared to 9.7% for open-air shopping centers without theaters.
Indoor malls saw a similar pattern with regard to “Near-Urban Diverse Families”: Middle class families living in and around cities made up 9.0% of the captured markets of indoor malls with movie theaters, compared to 7.1% of the captured markets of those without.
This increase in foot traffic from middle-class and wealthy family segments can be a boon for malls and retail tenants – driving up food court profits and bolstering sales at stores with kid-friendly offerings.
Malls have long positioned themselves as destinations for summer entertainment as well as retail therapy, holding – in addition to back to school sales – events like Fourth of July celebrations and even indoor basketball and arena football games. And during the summer months, malls attract visitors from further away.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls drew 18.2% of visitors from 30+ miles away – compared to just 16.7% during the first five months of the year. Similarly, open-air shopping centers drew 19.6% of visits from 30+ miles away during the summer, compared to 17.1% between January and May.
Extended daylight hours, summer trips away from home, and more free time are likely among the contributors to the summer draw for long-distance mall visitors. But in addition to their classic offerings – from movie theaters to stores and food courts – malls have also invested in other kinds of unique experiences to attract visitors. This next section takes a look at two mega-malls winning at the visitation game, to see what sets them apart.
The Minneapolis-based Mall of America opened in 1992, redefining the limits of what a mall could offer. The mall boasts hundreds of stores, games, rides, and more – and is constantly expanding its attractions, cementing its status as a top destination for retail and entertainment.
Between June and August 2024, Mall of America experienced a 13.8% YoY visit increase, far outperforming the 3.7% visit boost seen by the wider indoor mall space. And as a major tourist attraction – the mall hosted a series of Olympic-themed events throughout the summer – it also drew 41.6% of visits from 30+ miles away. This share of distant visitors was significantly higher than that seen at the mall during the first five months of 2024, and more than double the segment-wide summer average of 18.2%.
The Mall of America also seems to be attracting more upper-middle-class families during the summer than other indoor malls: Between June and August 2024, some 18.0% of Mall of America’s captured market consisted of “Upper Suburban Diverse Family Households” – a segment including upper-middle-class suburbanites – compared to just 11.1% for the wider indoor mall segment. The increased presence of these families at the Mall of America may be driven by the variety of events offered during the summer.
In 2019, the American Dream Mall in New Jersey opened and became the second-largest mall in the country. Since the mall opened its doors, it has also focused on blending retail and entertainment to draw in as wide a range of visitors as possible – and summer 2024 was no exception.
The mall hosted the Arena Football League Championship, ArenaBowl XXXIII, on Friday, July 19th. The event successfully attracted a higher share of visitors traveling from 30+ miles away compared to the average summer Friday – 35.4% compared to 25.7%.
Visits to the mall on the day of the championship were also 13.6% higher than the Friday visit average for the period between June and August 2024, showcasing the mall’s ability to draw in crowds by hosting major events.
Malls – both indoor and open-air – continue to evolve while playing a central role in the American retail landscape. Increasingly, malls are emerging as destinations for more than just shopping – especially during the summer – driving up foot traffic and attracting visitors from near and far. And while much is often said about the impact of holiday seasons on mall foot traffic, summer months offer another opportunity to boost mall visits. Malls that can curate experiences that resonate with their clientele can hope to see foot traffic growth – in the summer months and beyond.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
