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Saks Global’s Chapter 11 filing reflects a convergence of balance-sheet pressure and evolving consumer behavior rather than a sudden collapse of its brands or customer relevance. Following the acquisition of Neiman Marcus in late 2024, the company carried a significantly higher debt load, which reduced financial flexibility at a time when the broader luxury department store sector was facing uneven demand.
But while a missed interest payment was the immediate catalyst for the bankruptcy filing, traffic data suggests that the challenges facing Saks Global extended beyond balance-sheet constraints. AI-powered traffic data shows that Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus were underperforming most major department stores both on average visits per venue and on rates of repeat visitors already in H1 – before supplier relationships became more visibly strained. So even if inventory constraints and vendor caution likely amplified these trends in H2, the data suggests that softer consumer engagement with these chains was also due to earlier challenges in delivering an experience that consistently brought shoppers through the door.
(Kohl’s is a notable exception – while it underperformed Neiman Marcus on year-over-year visits per venue in H1, the banner still maintained the highest rate of repeat visitation by far, pointing to a more resilient customer base that can help cushion short-term traffic volatility).
Analyzing in-store behavior at Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus relative to other premium department stores is also revealing. Both banners skew more heavily toward midday and weekday visits than Nordstrom or Bloomingdale’s, a pattern that suggests a greater reliance on proximity- and convenience-driven traffic rather than by planned destination trips.
In contrast, Nordstrom and Bloomingdale's capture more visits during evenings, and weekends – times typically associated with browsing, social shopping, and occasions when shoppers are more willing to spend time in-store. These visit patterns reinforce the idea that Saks and Neiman Marcus are currently attracting more “pop-in” visits than experience-led ones.
Looking ahead, Saks Global’s path out of bankruptcy depends on repairing its balance sheet while rebuilding in-store experiences that support destination-driven shopping. To remain competitive, the company will need to restore consistent inventory, sharpen merchandising curation, and reinvest in service and experiences that encourage planned visits rather than incidental stop-ins.
At the same time, the data suggests a clear framework for rationalizing the footprint. Underperforming locations are likely those that skew heavily toward weekday, midday, and low-frequency visits, signaling reliance on proximity rather than loyalty or experience. These stores may struggle to justify continued investment, particularly if they sit in markets with limited repeat demand or weak engagement relative to peers. By using traffic trends, visit timing, and repeat behavior to guide closure or consolidation decisions, Saks Global can emerge from bankruptcy with a smaller but healthier store base – one aligned around markets where the brand can reclaim its role as a destination. In that sense, bankruptcy offers not just a financial reset, but a chance to refocus the business around the stores and experiences most likely to drive sustainable, long-term demand.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Rising travel, lodging, and theme park costs are reshaping how people spend their leisure time. Instead of long-distance or high-ticket trips, consumers are increasingly turning to local outdoor spaces – an option that is lower cost, flexible, and repeatable. What began as a pandemic-era adjustment has solidified into a durable behavioral shift, with meaningful implications for retailers, restaurants, real estate owners, and civic leaders.
Visits to local parks remain well above 2019 levels, signaling that outdoor spaces are no longer a temporary substitute for other leisure options but a primary destination in their own right.
Importantly, people are not just showing up more often – they are staying longer. The share of park visits lasting more than 30 minutes has increased meaningfully compared to pre-pandemic norms, indicating deeper engagement rather than quick, utilitarian stops.
This shift elevates parks from passive amenities to active drivers of surrounding economic activity. Longer visits create more opportunities for nearby food, retail, and service businesses to capture spend before and after park usage.
Visits to outdoor retailers also remain mostly above pre-pandemic levels throughout 2025, even as year-over-year performance versus 2024 fluctuates month to month. Stronger comparisons against 2019 – especially during spring and fall – suggest that outdoor retail demand is supported by a structurally larger base of outdoor participation rather than a short-lived rebound. This resilience reinforces outdoor retail as a downstream beneficiary of sustained, lifestyle-driven shifts toward local recreation.
Park visitation patterns have also shifted later in the day. Evening visits – particularly between 6:00 PM and 10:00 PM – now account for a larger share of total traffic than they did in 2019. This reflects broader changes in work schedules, hybrid work adoption, and how people structure leisure around daily routines.
For businesses and municipalities alike, this timing shift is critical. Demand is increasingly concentrated outside traditional daytime hours, which has implications for operating hours, staffing, safety, and programming decisions
The sustained shift toward local, outdoor leisure has broad implications across retail, dining, real estate, and the public sector.
For retailers, especially those tied to outdoor activities or convenience-driven purchases, increased park visitation and longer dwell times translate into more frequent, trip-based shopping opportunities. Proximity to parks, trails, and outdoor corridors matters more as consumers increasingly combine recreation with same-day retail needs.
Dining operators can benefit from the same dynamics. As park visits stretch later into the day, food demand increasingly overlaps with evening meal and snack occasions. Restaurants positioned near parks or along common access routes are well placed to capture post-activity traffic, particularly if hours and menus align with evening usage.
For commercial real estate owners and developers, park adjacency has become a tangible performance factor rather than a soft placemaking feature. Consistent, repeat visitation to nearby outdoor spaces can help stabilize foot traffic for retail and mixed-use assets, especially as consumers pull back from destination-oriented travel and entertainment.
Civic stakeholders also play a central role. Rising visitation – particularly in the evening – raises the importance of lighting, safety, maintenance, and programming that reflect how residents actually use parks today. Well-supported parks not only improve quality of life but also generate economic spillovers for surrounding businesses.
Organizations that align their locations, operating hours, and investment decisions with this reality are best positioned to capture value as leisure continues to localize.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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As Winter Storm Fern advanced across the U.S. in late January, consumer behavior followed a predictable pattern: early preparation gave way to a sharp pre-storm rush, followed by widening geographic divergence as conditions worsened. Retail visit data from January 22nd and 23rd highlights how quickly storm-driven demand intensified – and which categories and regions were best positioned to capture it.
Retailers saw a clear escalation in traffic from January 22nd to January 23rd, underscoring how storm proximity compressed shopping activity into a narrow window.
Home Improvement & Furnishings retailers saw the largest visit spikes on both January 22nd and 23rd as consumers focused on preparing their homes ahead of the storm. Visits were already 20.2% above the YTD (January 1st to 23rd) daily average on January 22nd and rose to 41.7% above average the following day – making the category the clear pre-storm leader. The pattern suggests shoppers were prioritizing purchases such as heating supplies, generators, weatherproofing materials, and snow-removal equipment as conditions grew more imminent.
Grocery Stores recorded the second-largest increases, reflecting consumers’ efforts to stock up on food and beverages in anticipation of staying home, with visits up 14.2% on January 22nd and climbing to 28.4% on January 23rd compared to the YTD daily average.
Value-oriented and necessity-driven categories also saw demand intensify. Discount & Dollar Stores experienced a modest 6.2% lift on January 22nd, which surged to 25.5% the following day. Drugstores & Pharmacies saw visits climb from 9.8% to 21.0%, while Superstores rose from 7.5% to 19.9% over the same period.
Pet Stores & Services stood out for their late-breaking surge: after seeing virtually flat traffic on January 22nd (+0.2%), visits jumped to 18.5% above average on January 23rd, suggesting that many consumers delayed pet-related preparedness until just before conditions worsened.
Across all categories, the doubling of visit lifts from one day to the next indicates that while some consumers planned ahead, a significant share delayed their storm preparations until the threat felt immediate.
The storm’s west-to-east progression was also reflected in shifting regional visitation patterns. On January 22nd, the largest visit surges were concentrated in parts of the Midwest, consistent with Winter Storm Fern’s earlier impacts across inland regions. By January 23rd, as the storm intensified and expanded across the South and Eastern Seaboard, retail visits spiked sharply in those areas as consumers rushed to complete last-minute errands ahead of worsening conditions. At the same time, parts of the Midwest saw more muted growth or visit slowdowns, suggesting that storm-related shopping activity there may have peaked earlier.
This data suggests that storm-related shopping remains a fundamentally local behavior, with consumers responding most strongly when severe conditions feel imminent in their immediate area. At the same time, the Midwest slowdown suggests that storm-related demand is finite and front-loaded, with visit activity tapering once households complete their initial preparation trips.
AI-driven location analytics reveals that storm-driven retail demand is not only intense but highly compressed, with visits surging in the brief window just before conditions deteriorate locally and fading quickly once preparation trips are complete. For retailers, capturing weather-driven demand seems to depend less on the size of the storm and more on aligning operations to where – and when – urgency is about to peak.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Tractor Supply’s growing footprint continues to stand out in a retail environment where many chains remain cautious about physical expansion. We took a closer look at Tractor Supply’s market positioning to better understand how the chain’s deliberate expansion strategy sets it up for success in 2026.
Tractor Supply continued to scale its physical footprint in 2025, leveraging the acquisition of former Big Lots sites and reinforcing store growth as a core lever of its “Life Out Here” strategy. The chain’s expansion likely contributed to its steady year-over-year (YoY) visit growth throughout 2025. Meanwhile, positive average visits per location in most months suggests that new stores were capturing incremental demand rather than diluting traffic at existing locations – reinforcing management’s commentary around limited cannibalization.
Tractor Supply intends to open around 100 new stores in 2026 as part of its longer-term roadmap to 3200 stores (the retailer currently has 2,398 locations), setting high expectations for continued foot traffic growth in 2026.
As Tractor Supply expands, its strategy has been focused on rural and western high-growth markets where demand remains underserved. And with a relatively small store format, Tractor Supply has a distinct advantage over big-box chains that often face site-selection challenges in these markets.
Analysis of AI-based potential market data combined with the STI: Market Outlook dataset shows that the unmet demand (demand minus supply) for building materials and supplies within Tractor Supply’s potential market – i.e. the areas from which it drives traffic – far surpasses unmet demand in the wider Home Improvement category’s potential market. This comparison – in just one of the retail categories that Tractor Supply occupies along with its peers – suggests substantial white space for the chain, driven by a footprint that prioritizes underserved markets rather than the more established ones where many industry counterparts compete.
And as Tractor Supply expanded between 2024 and 2025, unmet demand for building materials and supplies in the chain's potential market increased, even as unmet demand across the broader Home Improvement category declined. Together, these trends point to a site selection strategy that places Tractor Supply in high-demand regions where few retailers are positioned to fully meet consumer needs.
What can we learn from Tractor Supply’s strategy and 2025 performance? Sometimes, it pays to be smaller, and unlock demand away from the competitive landscapes where bigger players operate. By pairing an accelerated store-opening strategy with purposeful site selection, Tractor Supply appears well-positioned for sustained traffic growth.
Will Tractor Supply continue to build momentum in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Recent traffic trends to major dining chains show the divergence within the full-service dining space going into 2026. While Brinker International's flagship brand Chili's Grill continued reaping the benefits of its popular food bundles and drinks specials, Maggiano's Little Italy – the company's more upscale concept – struggled to reach 2024 visitation levels in Q4 2025.
For both Dine Brands Global, Inc. and Texas Roadhouse, Inc., traffic changes were mostly due to storefleet reconfigurations. Dine Brands' three banners contracted in 2025, leading to overall visit declines at Applebee's and Fuzzy's (IHOP maintained stable traffic patterns) – but all three concepts outperformed in terms of average visits per venue as the company's rightsizing efforts appeared to be bearing fruit. Meanwhile, Texas Roadhouse, Inc. showed the opposite pattern as its three banners expanded, leading to overall visit growth – but average visits per venue decreased, suggesting that traffic gains were mostly driven by unit expansion.
These patterns reflect a more selective consumer environment heading into 2026, where growth is increasingly shaped by brand positioning, value perception, and disciplined fleet strategies rather than broad-based demand recovery. A closer look at monthly visit trends across major banners further illustrates these dynamics.
After leading the full-service restaurant category in 2024, Chili’s once again emerged as a standout performer in 2025, delivering consistent monthly visit gains despite a softer consumer environment. The brand has successfully established and maintained a clear value proposition, helping keep Chili’s top of mind for consumers seeking an affordable sit-down dining option
At the same time, recent monthly traffic trends suggest that sustaining this momentum into 2026 may require continued innovation, whether through refreshed bundled offerings, targeted promotions, or menu updates that reinforce value without eroding margins. But even if traffic growth moderates in the year ahead, maintaining the elevated visitation levels achieved over the past two years would still leave Chili’s in a notably strong competitive position within the full-service dining landscape.
Applebee’s and IHOP saw YoY declines in overall visits, but same-store traffic generally held up better – indicating that fleet rationalization helped stabilize per-restaurant demand. These trends point to the importance of right-sizing footprints and prioritizing unit-level productivity in a constrained consumer environment.
Visits to Texas Roadhouse in 2025 were up 2.1% compared to 2024, in part thanks to the chain's ongoing expansion. Same-store performance also remained positive for much of the year, suggesting that the larger store fleet can be supported by existing demand.
And even as traffic trends moderated toward the end of the year, the chain’s overall 2025 visit growth suggests an underlying demand that is strong enough to support Texas Roadhouse’s expanding footprint despite the most recent slowdown.
Overall, traffic patterns at these three major FSR players point to a more selective and competitive full-service dining environment heading into 2026, where broad-based demand recovery remains elusive. Brands that clearly communicate value or actively optimize their store fleets appear better positioned to defend store-level demand, while expansion-led growth models face increasing pressure to deliver stronger unit-level productivity. As consumer discretion remains constrained, execution and positioning – not scale alone – will likely define traffic winners in the year ahead.
Fore more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Columbus, Ohio is among the Midwest’s fastest-growing metro areas. Like downtown business districts across the country, its urban core is seeing a return to the office. What do inbound commuter traffic patterns reveal about this shift – and how can local stakeholders, from retailers to commercial real estate investors, capitalize on the opportunities created by this growing influx?
Growing metro areas depend on vibrant downtown anchors for employment and economic activity. In Columbus, OH, the downtown area has long served as a key destination for commuters as the city’s population and labor force have grown. Favorable business incentives, and the presence of major employers such as Nationwide Insurance, Huntington Bancshares, and American Electric Power contribute to Downtown Columbus’s rising commuter population.
Analysis of the regions with the highest shares of commuters to Downtown Columbus shows that both nearby urban neighborhoods and surrounding suburbs contribute significantly to the city’s downtown workforce.
The map below reveals that over the past 12 months, the densely-populated 43201 zip code drove one of the highest shares of downtown commuters. This urban corridor includes the rejuvenated Weinland Park neighborhood and parts of the University District and trendy Short North. Many of these commuters are likely students or recent graduates entering the workforce – drawn downtown by internships, early-career roles, and professional opportunities.
At the same time, the suburbs also play a defining role in Downtown Columbus’s workforce composition. The 43123 zip code – centered around Grove City – and 43026 – anchored by Hilliard – also had relatively large shares of Downtown Columbus commuters. This reflects a broader trend of workers balancing suburban lifestyles with city-based employment opportunities.
While Downtown Columbus’s workforce reflects a mix of suburban and urban commuters, the composition within its commercial corridors is even more nuanced – shaped by distinct demographic and psychographic characteristics.
Among the analyzed corridors, the Arena District stood out for having the highest median household income (HHI) and the largest share of the “Young Professionals” segment among commuters in 2025, suggesting a workforce anchored in early- to mid-career white-collar roles. This profile aligns with the district’s mix of corporate offices, and sports and entertainment–adjacent employers that may attract younger, upwardly mobile workers.
The Discovery District followed closely in terms of median income, but its psychographic mix skewed differently. The area had one of the highest shares of the “Ultra Wealthy Families” segment, alongside the largest concentration of the “City Hopefuls” segment, among the downtown corridors analyzed. Anchored by institutions such as Columbus State Community College, major healthcare employers, research organizations, and cultural assets like the Columbus Metropolitan Library and the Columbus Museum of Art, the district appears to draw a diverse, but upper-income mix of commuters tied to public service, education, and nonprofit work.
The Uptown District stood apart with a median commuter HHI below that of the Columbus, OH DMA, and elevated shares of “City Hopefuls” and “Young Professionals” compared to the region. This profile likely reflects the district’s concentration of government offices and white-collar employers in law and finance, alongside the service-sector workforce that supports the area’s high daily activity – together pulling a wide spectrum of income levels into the corridor each day.
With the right strategy, the diversity among commuters – who are also consumers of restaurants, retailers, and other service-oriented industries – creates opportunities for businesses to engage their target audiences where they spend meaningful daytime hours.
A downtown reflects not only a metro’s economic strength but also the fabric of its cultures and communities. In Columbus, the downtown serves as both a hub of commercial activity and a crossroads for commuters from diverse backgrounds. This diversity presents businesses with opportunities to carve out a target audience and civic leaders with a responsibility to ensure that Downtown Columbus continues to serve the needs of all who power it.
For more regional analyses, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Indoor malls and open-air centers have posted consistent YoY visit growth, outlet declines have been modest, and early 2026 data shows renewed momentum across all three formats.
Growth in short visits and extended stays – alongside declines in mid-length trips – shows that consumers are gravitating toward trips with a clear purpose, favoring either efficiency or immersion.
Rising dwell times and strong engagement from younger, contemporary households position indoor malls as leading destinations for longer, experience-driven trips.
A higher share of short, weekday visits – along with strong appeal among affluent families – underscores their role as convenient, essential retail hubs.
As off-price and online alternatives erode their treasure-hunt advantage and long-distance visitation softens, outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal.
The malls that thrive will be those that intentionally optimize for convenience, experience, or a disciplined integration of both.
Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the “dead mall” narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving.
What can location analytics tell us about the state of the mall in 2026? Which trends and audiences are driving their performance – and how can operators and retailers best capitalize on the opportunities within the category?
Over the past two years, both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth. And while outlet malls experienced slight declines, the pullback was modest – signaling a period of stability rather than erosion.
Early 2026 data also points to continued momentum, with all three mall formats recording mid-single-digit YoY traffic gains in the first two months of the year. Although it’s still early days – and YoY comparisons in 2026 were boosted by an additional Saturday – the positive start suggests that the industry is entering the year on a solid footing.
With e-commerce always within reach, hybrid work anchoring more consumers at home, and ongoing economic uncertainty influencing spending decisions, trips to physical stores are becoming more intentional. Shopping center visit data reflects this shift as well, with growth in both quick convenience visits and extended experiential outings – alongside a decline in mid-length trips.
In 2025, quick trips (under 30 minutes) increased across all formats, underscoring malls’ growing role as convenient, high-utility destinations for picking up an online order, grabbing a quick bite, or making a targeted purchase. At the same time, extended visits of more than 75 minutes increased at indoor malls and open-air centers, reflecting sustained appetite for immersive, experiential outings.
Meanwhile, mid-length visits (between 30 and 75 minutes) lagged across formats – falling indoor malls and outlet malls and remaining flat at open-air centers – suggesting shoppers are losing patience with undifferentiated trips that lack a clear purpose.
Still, although short visits increased year over year across all mall types, and long visits increased for both indoor malls and open-air centers, the distribution of dwell time varies by format. Short visits make up a larger share of traffic at open-air shopping centers, for example, while longer visits account for a greater share at indoor malls. This divergence underscores the need for format-specific strategies, with operators clearly defining the core shoppers and missions they are best suited to serve and aligning tenant mix, amenities, and marketing accordingly.
Indoor malls, for instance, have increasingly positioned themselves as experiential hubs – particularly for younger consumers. Recent survey data shows that 57% of shoppers aged 18 to 34 report visiting a mall frequently or often, and they are more likely than older cohorts to arrive without a specific purchase in mind.
Foot traffic patterns reinforce this experiential appeal. In 2025, 37.6% of indoor mall visits lasted more than 75 minutes, compared to 33.4% for open-air centers and 34.6% for outlets. Indoor malls also captured the largest share of visits from the young-skewing “contemporary households” segment – singles, non-family households, and young couples without children – indicating strong resonance with younger audiences.
As indoor malls expand their experiential offerings, visit durations are rising even further – even as they hold steady or even slightly decline at other formats. For operators, this shift highlights a significant opportunity for indoor malls to deepen their role as climate-controlled third places. And for brands, it means high-impact access to Gen Z consumers in discovery mode – top-of-funnel engagement that is increasingly difficult and expensive to replicate through digital channels alone.
If indoor malls excel at capturing extended, social visits, open-air centers are finding success through convenience. In 2025, open-air centers had the highest shares of both weekday visits (64.0%) and short, sub-30 minutes (36.8%) among the three formats. Grocery anchors, superstores, and essential-service tenants like gyms – more common at open-air centers than at other formats – help drive steady, non-discretionary traffic.
Demographically, open-air centers drew the highest share of affluent families, a key demographic for daily errands. This alignment with higher-income households, combined with weekday consistency, positions open-air centers as reliable errand hubs embedded in community life.
Outlet malls, for their part, have historically differentiated themselves by offering something shoppers couldn’t find elsewhere: an experiential treasure hunt featuring brand-name merchandise at compelling prices. But the decline in long visits shown above suggests that this positioning may be coming under pressure – likely from the rise of off-price and discount chains as well as other low-cost, convenient treasure-hunt alternatives like thrift stores. When shoppers can score attractive deals online or browse for bargains at a nearby T.J. Maxx or Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, the incentive to dedicate time and travel to an outlet trip may no longer feel as compelling – especially for outlet malls’ core audience, which includes meaningful contingents of middle and lower-income consumers with families.
And data points to a subtle but steady erosion in the share of visitors willing to go the extra mile to visit outlet malls. Since 2023, the share of outlet visits from consumers traveling more than 30 miles has slipped from 33.1% to 31.8%, even as long-distance visits to other mall formats have remained relatively stable. This softening of destination demand may be contributing to outlets’ recent traffic lags.
Still, despite these lags in foot traffic, major outlet companies continue to see YoY increases in same-center tenant sales per square foot. The format’s strong visit start to 2026 also suggests that outlets still have significant draw – and that with the right strategy, they could reinvigorate their traffic trends.
One option is for outlet malls to lean further into their immediate trade areas: Nearly 20% of visits to outlets already originate within five miles – a share that edged up from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.9% in 2025. These closer shoppers may be largely responsible for the segment’s rise in short visits, pointing to an opportunity to further augment BOPIS offerings and select essential-use tenants.
Another option is to strengthen outlets’ destination appeal with distinctive retail, dining, and experiential offerings that resonate with value-oriented, larger-household shoppers. But whether they focus on convenience or on justifying the journey – or attempt to balance both – success will depend on identifying who their shoppers are and which missions they are best positioned to own.
As in other areas of retail, shopping center success increasingly depends on strategic clarity. The malls that thrive will be those that clearly define their role in their customers’ lives and execute against it with intention – whether by decisively optimizing for efficiency, fully investing in experience, or thoughtfully integrating both.
Commercial real estate in 2026 is characterized by differentiated performance across markets and asset types. Office recovery trajectories vary meaningfully by metro, retail performance reflects format-specific resilience, and domestic migration patterns continue to influence long-term demand fundamentals.
Many higher-income metros continue to trail 2019 benchmarks but drive the strongest Year-over-year gains, signaling a potential inflection in office utilization trends.
• Sunbelt markets along with New York, NY are closest to pre-pandemic office visit levels, while many coastal gateway and tech-heavy markets trail 2019 benchmarks.
• Many of the metros still furthest below pre-pandemic levels are now posting the strongest year-over-year gains.
• Leasing velocity may accelerate in coastal markets – particularly in high-quality assets – even if full recovery remains distant. The expansion of AI-driven firms and innovation-focused employers could support incremental demand in these ecosystems, reinforcing a bifurcation between top-tier buildings and the broader office inventory.
• Higher-income metros such as San Francisco show deeper structural gaps vs 2019, perhaps due to their higher concentration of hybrid-eligible workers – yet those same metros are driving the strongest YoY recovery in 2025.
• Accelerating growth in 2025 suggests that shifting employer policies, workplace enhancements, or broader labor dynamics may be beginning to drive increased in-office activity.
• Office performance in higher-income markets will increasingly depend on workplace quality and policy alignment. Assets that support premium amenities, modern design, and tenants implementing clear in-office expectations are likely to influence sustained office visits and leasing velocity in these metros.
Retail traffic is broadly improving across states, though performance varies by region and format.
• Retail traffic growth is broad-based, with the majority of states showing year-over-year gains in shopping center traffic in 2025.
• Still, even as many states are posting gains, pockets of softer performance remain – specifically in parts of the Southeast and Midwest.
• Broad-based traffic gains indicate consumer demand is more durable than anticipated. In growth states, operators can shift from defensive stabilization to capturing upside – pushing rents, upgrading tenant quality, and accelerating leasing while momentum holds. In softer markets, the focus should remain on protecting traffic through strong anchors and necessity-driven tenancy.
• Convenience-oriented formats are leading traffic growth, with strip/convenience centers materially outperforming all other shopping center types, and neighborhood and community centers also posting gains. This reinforces the strength of proximity-driven, daily-needs retail.
• Destination retail formats, including regional malls and factory outlets, continue to lag, while super-regional malls were essentially flat. Larger-format, discretionary-driven centers are not capturing the same momentum as convenience-based formats.
• The data suggests that consumer behavior continues to favor convenience, frequency, and necessity over destination-based shopping. Operators should lean into service-oriented and daily-needs tenancy in strip and neighborhood formats, while mall operators may need to further reposition assets toward experiential, mixed-use, or non-retail uses to stabilize traffic.
Domestic migration continues to reshape state-level demand, with gains clustering in select growth corridors.
• Domestic migration drove population gains in parts of the Southeast and Northern Plains, while several Western and Northeastern states show flat or negative migration.
• Some previously strong in-migration states in the South and West, including Texas and Utah, are showing softer movement, while other established migration leaders such as Florida and the Carolinas continue to attract net inbound residents.
• Migration flows are shifting relative to prior years. Operators should temper growth assumptions in states where inflows are slowing and prioritize markets where inbound demand remains strong.
• Florida dominates metro-level migration growth, with eight of the top ten U.S. metros for net domestic migration are in Florida.
• The markets with the strongest domestic migration-driven population gains are not major gateway cities but smaller, often retirement- or lifestyle-oriented metros, suggesting that migration-driven demand is increasingly flowing to secondary markets.
• CRE operators should prioritize expansion, leasing, and site selection in high-growth secondary metros where population inflows can directly translate into retail spending, housing absorption, and service demand.
1. Expanded grocery supply is increasing overall category engagement. New locations and deeper food assortments across formats are bringing shoppers into the category more often, rather than fragmenting demand.
2. Grocery visit growth is being driven by low- and middle-income households. Elevated food costs are leading to more frequent, budget-conscious trips, reinforcing grocery’s role as a non-discretionary category.
3. Short, frequent trips are a major driver of brick-and-mortar traffic growth. Fill-in shopping, deal-seeking, and omnichannel behaviors are pushing visit frequency higher, even as trip duration declines.
4. Scale is accelerating consolidation among large grocery chains. Larger retailers are using their size to invest in value, assortment, private label, and execution, allowing them to capture longer and more engaged shopping trips.
5. Both large and small grocers have viable paths to growth. Large chains are winning by competing for the full grocery list, while smaller banners can grow by specializing, owning specific missions, or offering compelling value that earns them a place in shoppers’ routines.
While much of the retail conversation going into 2026 focused on discretionary spending pressure, digital substitution, and higher-income consumers as the primary drivers of growth, grocery foot traffic tells a different story.
Rather than being diluted by new formats or eroded by e-commerce, brick-and-mortar grocery engagement is expanding. Visits are rising even as grocery supply spreads across wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. At the same time, growth is being powered not by affluent trade areas, but by low- and middle-income households navigating higher food costs through more frequent, targeted trips. Shoppers are showing up more often and increasingly splitting their trips across retailers based on value, availability, and mission – pushing grocers to compete for portions of the grocery list instead of the full weekly basket.
The data also suggests that the largest grocery chains are capturing a disproportionate share of rising grocery demand – but the multi-trip nature of grocery shopping in 2026 means that smaller banners can still drive traffic growth. By strengthening their value proposition, specializing in specific products, or owning specific shopping missions, these smaller chains can complement, rather than compete with, larger one-stop destinations.
Ultimately, AI-based location analytics point to a clear set of grocery growth drivers in 2026: expanded supply that increases overall engagement, more frequent and mission-driven trips, and continued traffic concentration among large chains alongside new opportunities for smaller banners.
One driver of grocery growth in recent years is simply the expansion of grocery supply across multiple retail formats. Wholesale clubs are constantly opening new locations and discount and dollar stores are investing more heavily in their food selection, giving consumers a wider choice of where to shop for groceries. And rather than fragmenting demand, this broader availability appears to have increased overall grocery engagement – benefiting both dedicated grocery stores and grocery-adjacent channels.
Grocery stores continue to capture nearly half of all visits across grocery stores, wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. That share has remained remarkably stable thanks to consistent year-over-year traffic growth – so even as grocery supply increases across categories, dedicated grocery stores remain the primary destination for food shopping.
Meanwhile, mass merchants have seen a decline in relative visit share as expanding grocery assortments at discount and dollar stores and the growing store fleets of wholesale clubs give consumers more alternatives for one-stop shopping.
While much of the broader retail conversation heading into 2026 centers on higher-income consumers carrying growth, the trend looks different in the grocery space. Recent visit trends show that grocery growth has increasingly shifted toward lower- and middle-income trade areas, underscoring the distinct dynamics of non-discretionary retail.
For lower- and middle-income shoppers, elevated food costs appear to be translating into more frequent grocery trips as consumers manage budgets through smaller baskets, deal-seeking, and shopping across retailers. In contrast, higher-income households – often cited as a key growth engine for discretionary retail – are contributing less to grocery visit growth, likely reflecting more stable shopping patterns or a greater ability to consolidate trips or shift spend online.
This means that, in 2026, grocery growth is not being propped up by high-income consumers. Instead, it is being fueled by necessity-driven shopping behavior in lower- and middle-income communities – reinforcing grocery’s role as an essential category and suggesting that similar dynamics may be at play across other non-discretionary retail segments.
Another factor driving grocery growth is the rise in short grocery visits in recent years. Between 2022 and 2025, the biggest year-over-year visit gains in the grocery space went to visits under 30 minutes, with sub-15 minute visits seeing particularly big boosts. As of 2025, visits under 15 minutes made up over 40% of grocery visits nationwide – up from 37.9% of visits in 2022.
This shift toward shorter visits – especially those under 15 minutes – is driven in part by the continued expansion of omnichannel grocery shopping, as many consumers complete larger stock-up orders online and rely on in-store trips for order collection or quick, fill-in needs. At the same time, the rise in short visits paired with consistent YoY growth in grocery traffic points to additional, behavior-driven forces at play – consumers' growing willingness to shop around at different grocery stores in search of the best deal or just-right product.
Value-conscious shoppers – particularly consumers from low- and middle-income households, which have driven much of recent grocery growth – seem to be increasingly shopping across multiple retailers to secure the best prices. This behavior often involves making targeted trips to different stores in search of the strongest deals, a pattern that is contributing to the rise in shorter, more frequent grocery visits. At the same time, other grocery shoppers are making quick trips to pick up a single ingredient or specialty item – perhaps reflecting the increasingly sophisticated home cooks and social media-driven ingredient crazes. In both these cases, speed is secondary to getting the best value or the right product.
So while some shorter visits reflect a growing emphasis on efficiency – as shoppers use in-store trips to complement primarily online grocery shopping – others appear driven by a preference for value or product selection over speed. Despite their differences, all of these behaviors have one thing in common – they're all contributing to continued growth in brick-and-mortar grocery visits. Grocers who invest in providing efficient in-store experiences are particularly well-positioned to benefit from these trends.
As early as 2022, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains already accounted for roughly half of all grocery visits nationwide. And by outpacing the industry average in terms of visit growth, these chains have continued to capture a growing share of grocery foot traffic.
This widening gap suggests that scale is increasingly enabling grocers to reinvest in the factors that attract and retain shoppers. Larger chains are better positioned to invest in broader and more differentiated product selection, stronger private-label programs that deliver quality at accessible price points, competitive pricing, and operational excellence across stores and omnichannel touchpoints. These capabilities allow top chains to serve a wide range of shopping missions – from quick, convenience-driven trips to more intentional visits in search of the right product or ingredient.
Consolidation at the top of the grocery category is reinforcing a virtuous cycle: scale enables better value, selection, and experience, which in turn draws more shoppers into stores and supports continued grocery traffic growth.
In 2025, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains accounted for a disproportionate share of visits lasting 15 minutes or more, while smaller grocers captured a larger share of the shortest trips. As shown above, larger grocery chains, which tend to attract longer visits, grew faster than the industry overall – but short visits, which skew more heavily toward smaller chains, accounted for a greater share of total traffic growth. Together, these patterns show that both long, destination trips and short, targeted visits are driving grocery traffic growth and creating viable paths forward for retailers of all sizes.
Larger chains are more likely to serve as destinations for fuller shopping missions, competing for the entire grocery list – or a significant share of it. But smaller banners can grow too by competing for more short visits. By specializing in a specific product category, owning a clearly defined shopping mission, or delivering a compelling value proposition, smaller grocers can earn a place in shoppers’ routines and become a deliberate stop within a broader grocery journey.
As grocery moves deeper into 2026, growth is being driven by the cumulative effect of how consumers are navigating food shopping today. Expanded supply has increased overall engagement, higher food costs are driving more frequent and targeted trips, and shoppers are increasingly willing to split their grocery list across retailers based on value, availability, and mission.
Looking ahead, this suggests that grocery growth will remain resilient, but unevenly distributed. Retailers that clearly understand which trips they are best positioned to win – and invest accordingly – will be best placed to capture that growth. Large chains are likely to continue benefiting from scale, consolidation, and their ability to serve full shopping missions, while smaller banners can grow by earning a defined role within shoppers’ broader grocery journeys. In 2026, success in grocery will be less about winning every trip and more about consistently winning the right ones.
