.svg)
About the Placer.ai Mall Index: The Placer.ai Mall Index analyzes data from 100 top-tier indoor malls, 100 open-air shopping centers (not including outlet malls) and 100 outlet malls across the country, in both urban and suburban areas. Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the country.
Mall visits largely rebounded in March following their February drop. Traffic to indoor malls grew 1.8% year-over-year while open-air shopping centers and outlet malls saw their YoY visit gaps narrow to 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively. The rebound may be driven by the slight increase in consumer confidence among younger consumers (under 35 years old) and consumers from households earning over $125K a year – since affluent households are overrepresented in the trade areas of all three mall formats.
Indoor malls’ March YoY visit growth is the latest manifestation of the format’s strength. Between Q2 2023 and Q1 2024, open-air shopping centers led the shopping center space as this format consistently outperformed the other two mall types on a YoY visit basis. But over the past year, indoor malls have led the pack, with YoY visit trends to indoor malls consistently stronger than visitation metrics for the other two formats.
Some of the strength of indoor malls could be attributed to a sort of “survival of the fittest.” Many indoor malls shuttered in recent years, so the malls that remain in operation – such as the top-tier malls in the Placer.ai Indoor Mall Index – may be receiving some of the traffic that may have previously gone to less successful malls. Indoor malls are likely also benefiting from a renewed demand for the indoor mall experience – which could explain the string of recent investments in class B malls – from Walmart’s purchase of the Monroeville mall to Simon’s redevelopment of the Smith Haven Mall.
March 2025 marked the five-year anniversary of the retail lockdowns. And although this past month marked an improvement in visitation trends on a YoY basis, zooming out in time reveals that the pandemic is still having a lingering impact on both the quantity and quality of mall visits across formats.
All three mall types received fewer, shorter visits in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2019, with outlet malls seeing the largest drop in both visit numbers and visit duration. Open-air shopping centers experienced the strongest recovery in terms of visit numbers – Q1 2025 traffic was just 2.0% lower than in Q1 2019 – while visit duration fell 4.4%. Indoor malls saw the strongest rebound in visit duration, with Q1 2025 visits only 2.9% shorter than pre-pandemic – but visit numbers were down 7.4%. So despite the resilience of open-air shopping centers and the recent visit gains of indoor malls, the shopping center industry still has a ways to go before visitation patterns return to pre-COVID levels across the board.
As the industry looks beyond the five-year mark, the future of malls will likely depend on adaptability. Operators who can balance digital integration, experiential offerings, and responding to shifting consumer preferences will be best positioned to thrive in a post-COVID retail environment.
While the positive March visit data offers a degree of optimism for the mall industry, it's crucial to acknowledge that the sector is still navigating the long-term effects of the pandemic, characterized by fewer and shorter visits compared to pre-2020. At the same time, the recent success of indoor malls suggests a potential shift in consumer preferences or a concentration of traffic in stronger locations, highlighting the ongoing evolution of the retail landscape. Moving forward, the resilience and future success of malls will likely hinge on their ability to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and integrate innovative strategies that enhance the overall shopping experience.
Consumers are as interested as ever in heath-conscious eating, and many are turning to protein-packed diets to meet their fitness and wellness goals. We took a closer look at two retailers making a name for themselves in the high-protein, health-centric food space – Wild Fork Foods and Clean Eatz.
Wild Fork Foods is a paradise for meat and seafood lovers. The chain, which boasts nearly 60 locations nationwide, is at once a grocer, specialty products purveyor, and prepared foods destination. While much of Wild Fork’s product selection is frozen-meat-centric, the chain also offers a robust array of prepared foods.
And consumers seem to be resonating with the brands’ offerings – foot traffic to Wild Fork Foods consistently outpaced overall grocery visits, with YoY visits 33.8% higher in February 2025 than in February 2024, while overall grocery visits dropped by 1.7%. While some of this visit growth can be attributed to an increase in locations, Wild Fork’s strong performance bodes well for the brand.
Clean Eatz takes a different approach with its product offerings. While the chain boasts an on-site cafe, its real strength lies in its prepared meals and meal kits, which can be ordered individually or as part of full meal plans for the week. Each plan includes detailed nutrition information, making the chain an ideal option for those looking to take their diet to the next level.
This health-centric approach seems to be resonating with visitors, with Clean Eatz foot traffic outperforming the fast-casual restaurant segment in all months analyzed. And like Wild Fork, Clean Eatz has expanded over the past year, opening 14 locations between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024.
While Wild Fork and Clean Eatz share similarities in foot traffic trends and expansion efforts, a closer look at visitor demographics reveals key differences that highlight their respective strengths.
Compared to Wild Fork, Clean Eatz receives more of its traffic during the weekday – 77.3% of Clean Eatz’ visits take place on Monday through Friday, in contrast to Wild Fork’s 62.6%. Similarly, a higher share of Clean Eatz visitors visit the chain on their way to or from work – 14.9% and 10.0%, respectively – compared to Wild Fork’s 7.8% and 4.8%.
This suggests that Clean Eatz has become a convenient meal option for busy weekdays, while Wild Fork primarily attracts shoppers making planned stock-up trips.
Examining demographic data reveals additional distinctions between Wild Fork and Clean Eatz’ customers beyond their shopping preferences. While both chains draw visitors from trade areas with relatively high median household incomes (HHI), Wild Fork’s captured market skews wealthier, with a median HHI of $106.3K, compared to $83.9K for Clean Eatz.
Wild Fork’s trade area also includes significantly more "Near-Urban Diverse Families" – middle-class households living in or near cities – while Clean Eatz thrived with suburban audiences, capturing a higher share of the "Blue Collar Suburbs" Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment.
These differences highlight that there is plenty of room within the prepared foods segment for a wide range of concepts. By aligning their offerings with customer preferences – perhaps by expanding into suburban markets or focusing on premium selections – retailers can carve out their own space and thrive.
Wild Fork and Clean Eatz are making names for themselves in the prepared food and gourmet grocery spaces. By tailoring their offerings to different consumer preferences, they’ve proven that multiple concepts can thrive within the high-protein food segment.
Will the space continue to evolve? Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Eatertainment concepts have grown in popularity as consumers continue to prioritize experiences. We dove into the latest location intelligence for one of the leaders in the space – Dave & Buster’s – to explore the consumer behavior and demographics behind its foot traffic growth.
Throughout the first three quarters of 2024, visits to Dave & Buster’s increased year-over-year (YoY), likely due to an emphasis on remodels aimed at improving the entertainment and dining experience, as well as the brand’s continued expansion. And though the chain experienced a moderate visit gap in Q4 2024, it finished out the year with an overall 3.0% YoY increase in visits. Visits to the chain in 2024 were also up 4.7% when compared to 2019 (pre-pandemic) – an impressive showing given the headwinds that have plagued the wider full-service restaurant space in recent years.
Although visits to Dave & Buster’s have lagged YoY most weeks in 2025 so far, this may have more to do with severe weather experienced in large parts of the country than with a sustained decrease in demand for the chain. Indeed, during the week of March 17th, 2025, visits increased YoY, highlighting the popularity of March Madness and Dave & Buster’s spring break promotions – and perhaps signaling a positive start to the chain’s busy spring season.
In 2024, Friday through Sunday accounted for a large share of Dave & Buster’s visits (62.7%), but compared to 2023, the days with the greatest increases in foot traffic were Monday (8.2%), Tuesday (8.0%), Thursday (6.8%), and Wednesday (5.3%). Meanwhile, Friday and Saturday traffic increased by only 1.8% and 1.0% respectively, and Sunday visits were flat YoY. So although the chain received a majority of its visits on weekends (Friday-Sunday), most of its YoY visit growth came from weekday visits.
This validates Dave & Buster’s promotional strategy of incentivizing weekday visits when locations can leverage available capacity.
Dave & Buster’s focus on weekday promotions has likely resonated particularly well with its core audience – consumers with median household incomes (HHIs) slightly below the nationwide baseline. For many middle-income Americans, the chance to indulge without overspending is crucial in a time of rising prices and economic uncertainty, and Dave & Buster’s has effectively met their needs with its discounted midweek food, drinks, and gameplay options.
But in addition to young singles and cost-conscious families (such as the “Family Union” segment, encompassing middle-income, middle-aged families in blue-collar occupations), the brand also appeals to several more affluent consumer segments. In 2024, Dave & Buster’s captured market featured higher-than-average shares of both the “Suburban Style” and “Flourishing Families” segments, which include different groups of affluent, middle-aged couples and families. This broad appeal across a diverse range of consumer groups positions the brand on solid footing as it continues to navigate a challenging economic environment.
Dave & Buster's has seen increased customer traffic, likely due to strategic renovations and an expanded footprint. While weekend visits remain dominant, weekday growth indicates successful promotional efforts that resonate with diverse consumer groups.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit Placer.ai.
Forget water, soda, or tea – coffee reigns supreme in the United States. A recent study reveals that coffee surpasses even water as the nation's most consumed beverage. This continued demand is fueling a robust coffee shop sector that continues to thrive despite economic headwinds.
We took a closer look at industry-wide trends to understand how the segment is performing.
The coffee segment has seen consistent visit growth over the past few years, demonstrating remarkable resilience – a trend fueled by steady consumer demand. Analyzing the baseline change in quarterly visits from Q1 2019 underscores this growth – and also reveals distinct seasonal patterns.
Visits to coffee shops plummeted during the pandemic, as consumers hunkered down at home and many independent coffee shops went out of business – but swiftly rebounded as consumers sought affordable luxuries and a sense of normalcy. Between 2021 and early 2024, coffee foot traffic continued to climb, as chains from Starbucks to Dutch Bros expanded their footprints. The visit growth followed a fairly predictable seasonal rhythm, slowing in the first quarter of the year and peaking in Q4. But though visits in Q4 2024 were slightly higher YoY, they remained relatively flat compared to Q2 and Q3 2024, possibly signaling that the industry may be reaching a plateau.
Looking at the data by region reveals that coffee shop visit growth has been widespread throughout the country, with most CBSAs experiencing growth relative to 2023.
Some areas – like parts of the Midwest and South – experienced especially pronounced growth, suggesting heightened interest in coffee chains in these regions. Coffee visit growth in the South in particular may be partially a reflection of greater market penetration following chain expansions and inflows of domestic migration over the past several years. And while some areas of the country saw YoY declines, most CBSAs saw continued growth, highlighting the consistent appeal of coffee chains across a wide range of markets.
There are hundreds of coffee shops nationwide catering to every kind of coffee drinker – from chains with 2-3 locations specializing in artisanal blends to major players like Starbucks and Dunkin'. And diving into the visit split between small, mid-sized, and large coffee chains shows that mid-sized coffee chains – many of which are drive-thru focused – are gradually claiming a greater share of the market.
Between 2019 and 2024, the share of visitors to mid-sized coffee chains grew from 10.8% to 17.6%. Some of this growth can be attributed to Dutch Bros’ ascendance – but other fast-growing coffee chains like BIGGBY Coffee are contributing to this growth.
Smaller coffee chains also saw their visit share increase, albeit more modestly, from 3.2% in 2019 to 4.4% in 2024. This trend suggests that, while Starbucks and Dunkin' continue to dominate, there remains plenty of room – and interest – for smaller, independent chains to thrive.
Indeed, diving into visitor behavior at small, mid-sized, and large chains highlights the distinct niches these segments effectively fill. Between 2023 and 2024, short visits (<10 minutes) increased more than longer visits at mid-sized and large chains, while large chains actually saw a drop in longer visits, likely a result of increased emphasis on drive-thru and mobile ordering.
Meanwhile small chains saw a greater YoY increase in long visits (+13.4%) than in short ones (+9.1%), suggesting that smaller coffee shops are increasingly filling the niche of a relaxed, destination-oriented experience.
These shifts highlight the different needs that coffee shops can fill within a community, with some offering speed and convenience, while others can meet the desire for a relaxed and personalized coffee experience.
The success of the overall coffee segment highlights the continued consumer demand for affordable luxuries even as economic uncertainty persists, and the benefits of a diverse market that accommodates different visitor needs.
Will the coffee segment continue to thrive into 2025? Visit Placer.ai for the latest data-driven dining insights.
College students make up a small portion of the U.S. population, but they wield an outsize influence in the consumer market. Despite being notoriously budget-conscious, collegians value enjoyment and willingly splurge on experiences. And as tomorrow’s affluent consumers, today’s college students can deliver big future rewards for brands that successfully build lasting relationships with the segment.
So with spring break upon us, we dove into the data to see how today’s college crowd allocates its dining dollars. Where do they like to eat out? And how can brands best cater to their preferences?
Tight budgets notwithstanding, students are always on the hunt for delicious treats that don’t break the bank. And while overindulgence in beer and pizza traditionally led to the dreaded “freshman fifteen”, location analytics show that today’s college students are a bit more discerning. They balance cost with a desire for elevated experiences – while also prioritizing healthier options.
Against this backdrop, it may come as no surprise that fast-casual chains hit the college sweet spot between indulgence and affordability. In 2024, the share of STI:Landscape’s “Collegian” segment in the captured market trade areas of fast-casual chains nationwide stood at 54% above the nationwide baseline – meaning that this demographic’s representation among fast-casual’s visitor base was 54% above average. Specialty drinks – think healthful smoothies, boba teas, and juices – also stood out as particularly popular among the college crowd. Meanwhile, the share of college students in the captured markets of full-service restaurants (FSR), traditional coffee spots, and quick-service chains (QSR) was significantly lower – though still on par with, or slightly above, the nationwide baseline.
Within the specialty drink and fast-casual segments, certain chains attract a particularly strong college following, including Noodles & Company – which likely draws students with its unique twist on comfort foods like mac and cheese. Playa Bowls and Kung Fu Tea are also especially popular among undergrads on the hunt for wholesome, convenient pick-me-ups.
Even within categories that typically see fewer college patrons, such as FSR and QSR, select brands maintain a strong hold on this market. Wine club Postino and KPOT Korean BBQ & Hotpot – both of which offer elevated, unique experiences that deliver plenty of bang for the buck – are popular among collegians. Several mass-market FSR and QSR chains, including Waffle House, Texas Roadhouse, The Cheesecake Factory, Chili’s Grill & Bar, Raising Cane’s, Culver’s, Papa John’s Pizza, and Taco Bell also draw significantly higher-than-average college crowds. And within the coffee space, chains like Dutch Bros, and Scooter’s Coffee that offer specialty beverages like smoothies and energy drinks pull in above-average shares of college crowds.
How do college students interact with the dining brands they love? Zooming in on college town venues that cater specifically to the student crowd can shed light on the unique eating-out behaviors of this demographic.
Nationwide, the share of college students in coffee shops’ captured markets is just over the segment’s overall share in the population (+6%). But Starbucks locations near college campuses are positively teeming with students. A remarkable 81.9% of the captured market of the Starbucks near Indiana University, for example (on S. Indiana Ave in Bloomington, IN), belonged to STI:Landscape’s “Collegian” segment in 2024 – 5386% above the national average. Similar patterns were observed at locations near Texas A&M University and Penn State, where the segment made up 70.3% and 61.3%, respectively, of the locations’ visitor bases.
And these students tended to linger far longer than visitors to other Starbucks locations, either to study or hang out with friends – between 28.0 and 34.0 minutes on average, compared to 14.1 minutes for the chain as a whole.
Students also crave quick bites to power them through late-night study marathons and parties. Although most Taco Bells are busiest in the afternoons and early evenings, the one on S. Providence Rd. in Columbia, MO (near Mizzou) – with 68.5% of its market composed of “Collegians” – saw nearly half of visits take place after 8:00 PM last year. The same pattern held true at Taco Bell sites near the University of Florida in Gainesville and Texas A&M in College Station.
Collegian consumer activity typically peaks in August, when back-to-school shopping surges. And this holds true for college town restaurants as well. In 2024, visits to Chili’s locations serving college students – such as the Texas Ave S. location in College Station, TX, where the “Collegian” segment comprises 57.8% of its market – saw a notable visit spike in August. But in December, Chili's busiest month nationwide, things slowed down considerably at the analyzed campus-adjacent locations, as students headed back home for the holidays.
From hearty fast-casual fare to specialty drinks, late-night burritos, and lengthy coffee shop study sessions, college students blend cost-consciousness with a desire for quality and experience. And their loyalty to brands that strike this balance – while catering to their unique preferences and behaviors – can be massive, especially once they leave campus and their spending power grows.
Visit Placer.ai for more data-driven consumer insights.
Why has Old Navy introduced occasionwear? Examining the product selection available at the six brick-and-mortar apparel chains most frequently visited by Old Navy visitors (T.J. Maxx, Kohl’s, Marshalls, Ross Dress for Less, DICK’s Sporting Goods, and Macy’s) can shed light on the apparel needs of Old Navy’s consumer base.
Old Navy shoppers seem to like activewear – all six of Old Navy’s biggest brick-and-mortar competitors in the apparel space carry a large selection of sportswear and athleisure. In fact, the apparel selection at DICK’s Sporting Goods – the fifth most frequently visited chain among Old Navy visitors – is limited to only athletic wear. Old Navy already holds a strong competitive position in this category with its popular activewear collection.
But some Old Navy shoppers may be visiting brick-and-mortar apparel chains in search of the perfect evening dress – five of the top six retailers competing with Old Navy for apparel visits carry evening wear. So expanding its product line to include prom dresses and similar items may help Old Navy recapture some of the traffic lost to competitors from customers in search of occasionwear.
.avif)
Indoor malls and open-air centers have posted consistent YoY visit growth, outlet declines have been modest, and early 2026 data shows renewed momentum across all three formats.
Growth in short visits and extended stays – alongside declines in mid-length trips – shows that consumers are gravitating toward trips with a clear purpose, favoring either efficiency or immersion.
Rising dwell times and strong engagement from younger, contemporary households position indoor malls as leading destinations for longer, experience-driven trips.
A higher share of short, weekday visits – along with strong appeal among affluent families – underscores their role as convenient, essential retail hubs.
As off-price and online alternatives erode their treasure-hunt advantage and long-distance visitation softens, outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal.
The malls that thrive will be those that intentionally optimize for convenience, experience, or a disciplined integration of both.
Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the “dead mall” narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving.
What can location analytics tell us about the state of the mall in 2026? Which trends and audiences are driving their performance – and how can operators and retailers best capitalize on the opportunities within the category?
Over the past two years, both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth. And while outlet malls experienced slight declines, the pullback was modest – signaling a period of stability rather than erosion.
Early 2026 data also points to continued momentum, with all three mall formats recording mid-single-digit YoY traffic gains in the first two months of the year. Although it’s still early days – and YoY comparisons in 2026 were boosted by an additional Saturday – the positive start suggests that the industry is entering the year on a solid footing.
With e-commerce always within reach, hybrid work anchoring more consumers at home, and ongoing economic uncertainty influencing spending decisions, trips to physical stores are becoming more intentional. Shopping center visit data reflects this shift as well, with growth in both quick convenience visits and extended experiential outings – alongside a decline in mid-length trips.
In 2025, quick trips (under 30 minutes) increased across all formats, underscoring malls’ growing role as convenient, high-utility destinations for picking up an online order, grabbing a quick bite, or making a targeted purchase. At the same time, extended visits of more than 75 minutes increased at indoor malls and open-air centers, reflecting sustained appetite for immersive, experiential outings.
Meanwhile, mid-length visits (between 30 and 75 minutes) lagged across formats – falling indoor malls and outlet malls and remaining flat at open-air centers – suggesting shoppers are losing patience with undifferentiated trips that lack a clear purpose.
Still, although short visits increased year over year across all mall types, and long visits increased for both indoor malls and open-air centers, the distribution of dwell time varies by format. Short visits make up a larger share of traffic at open-air shopping centers, for example, while longer visits account for a greater share at indoor malls. This divergence underscores the need for format-specific strategies, with operators clearly defining the core shoppers and missions they are best suited to serve and aligning tenant mix, amenities, and marketing accordingly.
Indoor malls, for instance, have increasingly positioned themselves as experiential hubs – particularly for younger consumers. Recent survey data shows that 57% of shoppers aged 18 to 34 report visiting a mall frequently or often, and they are more likely than older cohorts to arrive without a specific purchase in mind.
Foot traffic patterns reinforce this experiential appeal. In 2025, 37.6% of indoor mall visits lasted more than 75 minutes, compared to 33.4% for open-air centers and 34.6% for outlets. Indoor malls also captured the largest share of visits from the young-skewing “contemporary households” segment – singles, non-family households, and young couples without children – indicating strong resonance with younger audiences.
As indoor malls expand their experiential offerings, visit durations are rising even further – even as they hold steady or even slightly decline at other formats. For operators, this shift highlights a significant opportunity for indoor malls to deepen their role as climate-controlled third places. And for brands, it means high-impact access to Gen Z consumers in discovery mode – top-of-funnel engagement that is increasingly difficult and expensive to replicate through digital channels alone.
If indoor malls excel at capturing extended, social visits, open-air centers are finding success through convenience. In 2025, open-air centers had the highest shares of both weekday visits (64.0%) and short, sub-30 minutes (36.8%) among the three formats. Grocery anchors, superstores, and essential-service tenants like gyms – more common at open-air centers than at other formats – help drive steady, non-discretionary traffic.
Demographically, open-air centers drew the highest share of affluent families, a key demographic for daily errands. This alignment with higher-income households, combined with weekday consistency, positions open-air centers as reliable errand hubs embedded in community life.
Outlet malls, for their part, have historically differentiated themselves by offering something shoppers couldn’t find elsewhere: an experiential treasure hunt featuring brand-name merchandise at compelling prices. But the decline in long visits shown above suggests that this positioning may be coming under pressure – likely from the rise of off-price and discount chains as well as other low-cost, convenient treasure-hunt alternatives like thrift stores. When shoppers can score attractive deals online or browse for bargains at a nearby T.J. Maxx or Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, the incentive to dedicate time and travel to an outlet trip may no longer feel as compelling – especially for outlet malls’ core audience, which includes meaningful contingents of middle and lower-income consumers with families.
And data points to a subtle but steady erosion in the share of visitors willing to go the extra mile to visit outlet malls. Since 2023, the share of outlet visits from consumers traveling more than 30 miles has slipped from 33.1% to 31.8%, even as long-distance visits to other mall formats have remained relatively stable. This softening of destination demand may be contributing to outlets’ recent traffic lags.
Still, despite these lags in foot traffic, major outlet companies continue to see YoY increases in same-center tenant sales per square foot. The format’s strong visit start to 2026 also suggests that outlets still have significant draw – and that with the right strategy, they could reinvigorate their traffic trends.
One option is for outlet malls to lean further into their immediate trade areas: Nearly 20% of visits to outlets already originate within five miles – a share that edged up from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.9% in 2025. These closer shoppers may be largely responsible for the segment’s rise in short visits, pointing to an opportunity to further augment BOPIS offerings and select essential-use tenants.
Another option is to strengthen outlets’ destination appeal with distinctive retail, dining, and experiential offerings that resonate with value-oriented, larger-household shoppers. But whether they focus on convenience or on justifying the journey – or attempt to balance both – success will depend on identifying who their shoppers are and which missions they are best positioned to own.
As in other areas of retail, shopping center success increasingly depends on strategic clarity. The malls that thrive will be those that clearly define their role in their customers’ lives and execute against it with intention – whether by decisively optimizing for efficiency, fully investing in experience, or thoughtfully integrating both.
Commercial real estate in 2026 is characterized by differentiated performance across markets and asset types. Office recovery trajectories vary meaningfully by metro, retail performance reflects format-specific resilience, and domestic migration patterns continue to influence long-term demand fundamentals.
Many higher-income metros continue to trail 2019 benchmarks but drive the strongest Year-over-year gains, signaling a potential inflection in office utilization trends.
• Sunbelt markets along with New York, NY are closest to pre-pandemic office visit levels, while many coastal gateway and tech-heavy markets trail 2019 benchmarks.
• Many of the metros still furthest below pre-pandemic levels are now posting the strongest year-over-year gains.
• Leasing velocity may accelerate in coastal markets – particularly in high-quality assets – even if full recovery remains distant. The expansion of AI-driven firms and innovation-focused employers could support incremental demand in these ecosystems, reinforcing a bifurcation between top-tier buildings and the broader office inventory.
• Higher-income metros such as San Francisco show deeper structural gaps vs 2019, perhaps due to their higher concentration of hybrid-eligible workers – yet those same metros are driving the strongest YoY recovery in 2025.
• Accelerating growth in 2025 suggests that shifting employer policies, workplace enhancements, or broader labor dynamics may be beginning to drive increased in-office activity.
• Office performance in higher-income markets will increasingly depend on workplace quality and policy alignment. Assets that support premium amenities, modern design, and tenants implementing clear in-office expectations are likely to influence sustained office visits and leasing velocity in these metros.
Retail traffic is broadly improving across states, though performance varies by region and format.
• Retail traffic growth is broad-based, with the majority of states showing year-over-year gains in shopping center traffic in 2025.
• Still, even as many states are posting gains, pockets of softer performance remain – specifically in parts of the Southeast and Midwest.
• Broad-based traffic gains indicate consumer demand is more durable than anticipated. In growth states, operators can shift from defensive stabilization to capturing upside – pushing rents, upgrading tenant quality, and accelerating leasing while momentum holds. In softer markets, the focus should remain on protecting traffic through strong anchors and necessity-driven tenancy.
• Convenience-oriented formats are leading traffic growth, with strip/convenience centers materially outperforming all other shopping center types, and neighborhood and community centers also posting gains. This reinforces the strength of proximity-driven, daily-needs retail.
• Destination retail formats, including regional malls and factory outlets, continue to lag, while super-regional malls were essentially flat. Larger-format, discretionary-driven centers are not capturing the same momentum as convenience-based formats.
• The data suggests that consumer behavior continues to favor convenience, frequency, and necessity over destination-based shopping. Operators should lean into service-oriented and daily-needs tenancy in strip and neighborhood formats, while mall operators may need to further reposition assets toward experiential, mixed-use, or non-retail uses to stabilize traffic.
Domestic migration continues to reshape state-level demand, with gains clustering in select growth corridors.
• Domestic migration drove population gains in parts of the Southeast and Northern Plains, while several Western and Northeastern states show flat or negative migration.
• Some previously strong in-migration states in the South and West, including Texas and Utah, are showing softer movement, while other established migration leaders such as Florida and the Carolinas continue to attract net inbound residents.
• Migration flows are shifting relative to prior years. Operators should temper growth assumptions in states where inflows are slowing and prioritize markets where inbound demand remains strong.
• Florida dominates metro-level migration growth, with eight of the top ten U.S. metros for net domestic migration are in Florida.
• The markets with the strongest domestic migration-driven population gains are not major gateway cities but smaller, often retirement- or lifestyle-oriented metros, suggesting that migration-driven demand is increasingly flowing to secondary markets.
• CRE operators should prioritize expansion, leasing, and site selection in high-growth secondary metros where population inflows can directly translate into retail spending, housing absorption, and service demand.
1. Expanded grocery supply is increasing overall category engagement. New locations and deeper food assortments across formats are bringing shoppers into the category more often, rather than fragmenting demand.
2. Grocery visit growth is being driven by low- and middle-income households. Elevated food costs are leading to more frequent, budget-conscious trips, reinforcing grocery’s role as a non-discretionary category.
3. Short, frequent trips are a major driver of brick-and-mortar traffic growth. Fill-in shopping, deal-seeking, and omnichannel behaviors are pushing visit frequency higher, even as trip duration declines.
4. Scale is accelerating consolidation among large grocery chains. Larger retailers are using their size to invest in value, assortment, private label, and execution, allowing them to capture longer and more engaged shopping trips.
5. Both large and small grocers have viable paths to growth. Large chains are winning by competing for the full grocery list, while smaller banners can grow by specializing, owning specific missions, or offering compelling value that earns them a place in shoppers’ routines.
While much of the retail conversation going into 2026 focused on discretionary spending pressure, digital substitution, and higher-income consumers as the primary drivers of growth, grocery foot traffic tells a different story.
Rather than being diluted by new formats or eroded by e-commerce, brick-and-mortar grocery engagement is expanding. Visits are rising even as grocery supply spreads across wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. At the same time, growth is being powered not by affluent trade areas, but by low- and middle-income households navigating higher food costs through more frequent, targeted trips. Shoppers are showing up more often and increasingly splitting their trips across retailers based on value, availability, and mission – pushing grocers to compete for portions of the grocery list instead of the full weekly basket.
The data also suggests that the largest grocery chains are capturing a disproportionate share of rising grocery demand – but the multi-trip nature of grocery shopping in 2026 means that smaller banners can still drive traffic growth. By strengthening their value proposition, specializing in specific products, or owning specific shopping missions, these smaller chains can complement, rather than compete with, larger one-stop destinations.
Ultimately, AI-based location analytics point to a clear set of grocery growth drivers in 2026: expanded supply that increases overall engagement, more frequent and mission-driven trips, and continued traffic concentration among large chains alongside new opportunities for smaller banners.
One driver of grocery growth in recent years is simply the expansion of grocery supply across multiple retail formats. Wholesale clubs are constantly opening new locations and discount and dollar stores are investing more heavily in their food selection, giving consumers a wider choice of where to shop for groceries. And rather than fragmenting demand, this broader availability appears to have increased overall grocery engagement – benefiting both dedicated grocery stores and grocery-adjacent channels.
Grocery stores continue to capture nearly half of all visits across grocery stores, wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. That share has remained remarkably stable thanks to consistent year-over-year traffic growth – so even as grocery supply increases across categories, dedicated grocery stores remain the primary destination for food shopping.
Meanwhile, mass merchants have seen a decline in relative visit share as expanding grocery assortments at discount and dollar stores and the growing store fleets of wholesale clubs give consumers more alternatives for one-stop shopping.
While much of the broader retail conversation heading into 2026 centers on higher-income consumers carrying growth, the trend looks different in the grocery space. Recent visit trends show that grocery growth has increasingly shifted toward lower- and middle-income trade areas, underscoring the distinct dynamics of non-discretionary retail.
For lower- and middle-income shoppers, elevated food costs appear to be translating into more frequent grocery trips as consumers manage budgets through smaller baskets, deal-seeking, and shopping across retailers. In contrast, higher-income households – often cited as a key growth engine for discretionary retail – are contributing less to grocery visit growth, likely reflecting more stable shopping patterns or a greater ability to consolidate trips or shift spend online.
This means that, in 2026, grocery growth is not being propped up by high-income consumers. Instead, it is being fueled by necessity-driven shopping behavior in lower- and middle-income communities – reinforcing grocery’s role as an essential category and suggesting that similar dynamics may be at play across other non-discretionary retail segments.
Another factor driving grocery growth is the rise in short grocery visits in recent years. Between 2022 and 2025, the biggest year-over-year visit gains in the grocery space went to visits under 30 minutes, with sub-15 minute visits seeing particularly big boosts. As of 2025, visits under 15 minutes made up over 40% of grocery visits nationwide – up from 37.9% of visits in 2022.
This shift toward shorter visits – especially those under 15 minutes – is driven in part by the continued expansion of omnichannel grocery shopping, as many consumers complete larger stock-up orders online and rely on in-store trips for order collection or quick, fill-in needs. At the same time, the rise in short visits paired with consistent YoY growth in grocery traffic points to additional, behavior-driven forces at play – consumers' growing willingness to shop around at different grocery stores in search of the best deal or just-right product.
Value-conscious shoppers – particularly consumers from low- and middle-income households, which have driven much of recent grocery growth – seem to be increasingly shopping across multiple retailers to secure the best prices. This behavior often involves making targeted trips to different stores in search of the strongest deals, a pattern that is contributing to the rise in shorter, more frequent grocery visits. At the same time, other grocery shoppers are making quick trips to pick up a single ingredient or specialty item – perhaps reflecting the increasingly sophisticated home cooks and social media-driven ingredient crazes. In both these cases, speed is secondary to getting the best value or the right product.
So while some shorter visits reflect a growing emphasis on efficiency – as shoppers use in-store trips to complement primarily online grocery shopping – others appear driven by a preference for value or product selection over speed. Despite their differences, all of these behaviors have one thing in common – they're all contributing to continued growth in brick-and-mortar grocery visits. Grocers who invest in providing efficient in-store experiences are particularly well-positioned to benefit from these trends.
As early as 2022, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains already accounted for roughly half of all grocery visits nationwide. And by outpacing the industry average in terms of visit growth, these chains have continued to capture a growing share of grocery foot traffic.
This widening gap suggests that scale is increasingly enabling grocers to reinvest in the factors that attract and retain shoppers. Larger chains are better positioned to invest in broader and more differentiated product selection, stronger private-label programs that deliver quality at accessible price points, competitive pricing, and operational excellence across stores and omnichannel touchpoints. These capabilities allow top chains to serve a wide range of shopping missions – from quick, convenience-driven trips to more intentional visits in search of the right product or ingredient.
Consolidation at the top of the grocery category is reinforcing a virtuous cycle: scale enables better value, selection, and experience, which in turn draws more shoppers into stores and supports continued grocery traffic growth.
In 2025, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains accounted for a disproportionate share of visits lasting 15 minutes or more, while smaller grocers captured a larger share of the shortest trips. As shown above, larger grocery chains, which tend to attract longer visits, grew faster than the industry overall – but short visits, which skew more heavily toward smaller chains, accounted for a greater share of total traffic growth. Together, these patterns show that both long, destination trips and short, targeted visits are driving grocery traffic growth and creating viable paths forward for retailers of all sizes.
Larger chains are more likely to serve as destinations for fuller shopping missions, competing for the entire grocery list – or a significant share of it. But smaller banners can grow too by competing for more short visits. By specializing in a specific product category, owning a clearly defined shopping mission, or delivering a compelling value proposition, smaller grocers can earn a place in shoppers’ routines and become a deliberate stop within a broader grocery journey.
As grocery moves deeper into 2026, growth is being driven by the cumulative effect of how consumers are navigating food shopping today. Expanded supply has increased overall engagement, higher food costs are driving more frequent and targeted trips, and shoppers are increasingly willing to split their grocery list across retailers based on value, availability, and mission.
Looking ahead, this suggests that grocery growth will remain resilient, but unevenly distributed. Retailers that clearly understand which trips they are best positioned to win – and invest accordingly – will be best placed to capture that growth. Large chains are likely to continue benefiting from scale, consolidation, and their ability to serve full shopping missions, while smaller banners can grow by earning a defined role within shoppers’ broader grocery journeys. In 2026, success in grocery will be less about winning every trip and more about consistently winning the right ones.
