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Some moments in our lives remain ingrained in our heads. One such time period was March of 2020, when it felt like the world suddenly stood still as malls, street retail, and dining establishments closed, everyone masked up, and only essential retail and health services continued. After a while, limitations relaxed, but not without a subconscious preference for open-air shopping centers that appears to linger to this day. Granted, many open-air shopping centers are also newer or redeveloped, thus likely contributing to their popularity. However, there’s no doubt that they’ve rebounded at a higher rate compared to their indoor mall and even outlet mall counterparts.
We analyzed traffic data for one of the most-visited open-air shopping centers in the nation, Victoria Gardens, to see what sets it apart and what continues to draw consumers to open-air centers.
This open-air shopping center is over 1.1 million square feet and hosts over 160 retailers within its borders. In addition to marquee brands such as Apple, lululemon, AMC Theatres, and Cheesecake Factory, it also has regional favorites such as Seven Grams dumpling house and cult-favorite Duck Donuts. Boasting a 160 acre main street community, its walkable layout beckons while classics play in the background. Quite a few of the concepts at Victoria Gardens are on trend. For instance, the Food Hall features local eatery Elephant Thai, which is perfectly in keeping with the popularity of all things Thai these days with Season 3 of White Lotus being set in Koh Samui.
Another genre that one doesn’t often see in more urban mall locations are two retailers devoted to Western wear – Buckle and Tecovas.
Tecovas has a fascinating backstory with its founder, Paul Hedrick, partnering initially with bootmakers from Leon, Mexico, the “boot-making capital of the Americas” and selling his first pairs from the backseat of his SUV. With an average dwell time of 40 minutes between April 2024 and February 2025 and holiday spikes for Thanksgiving and Christmas, it’s clear that for many shoppers, a pair of Tecova boots are on their wishlist.
One of the more unique aspects of this mall is its Cultural Center on premise. With a performing arts theater, library, and interactive children’s museum right next to retail, dining, and a movie theater, it’s truly a one-stop shop for its community.
As shopping centers continue to evolve, with many adopting a Town Square approach, the appeal of open-air shopping centers – full of public spaces, greenery, walkable paths, and fresh air – will only continue to grow.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Aldi and Lidl have firmly established themselves as discount powerhouses. The two German retailers entered the United States market at different times, with Aldi opening its first location in 1976 and Lidl making its way stateside in 2017 – and diving into the foot traffic shows that both are thriving.
In the first quarter of 2025, visits to Aldi and Lidl saw significant year-over-year (YoY) increases of 8.9% and 4.2%, respectively – well above the industry-wide average (0.9%.)
Aldi, which has been on an expansion tear for the past few years, saw a YoY increase in average visits per location – but so did Lidl, which has been slower to add new locations. And this growth – 4.7% at Aldi and 1.9% at Lidl – highlights that their stores, whether new locations or already-existing ones, are driving sustained demand.
A closer look at visitor behavior offers valuable insights into the factors driving the foot traffic success of Aldi and Lidl.
A significantly larger proportion of Aldi and Lidl's visits – 37.2% and 37.7%, respectively – took place on Saturdays and Sundays compared to visits to traditional and value grocery stores. This suggests that the attractive price points offered by Aldi and Lidl position them as prime destinations for shoppers making weekend stock-up trips.
On a chain level, both Aldi and Lidl are finding their own paths to success. Aldi is currently undergoing a significant growth phase, aiming to operate 800 stores by the end of 2028. This ambitious trajectory includes adding at least 225 new locations in 2025 alone – and examining the visit distribution across Aldi's largest markets provides valuable insights into how its strategy is unfolding. Contextualizing Aldi’s performance against the wider grocery segment provides a birds-eye view of the value grocer’s performance.
Over the past few years, Aldi has consistently increased its visit share when compared to the overall grocery segment, both nationally and across its major markets. For instance, in Florida, one of Aldi’s largest markets, its visit share grew from 4.8% in Q1 2022 to 7.0% in Q1 2025. And in Illinois, now its second-largest market, Aldi increased its visit share from 12.2% to 14.8% over the same period.
This consistent growth in visit share underscores the broad appeal of Aldi's value proposition to shoppers across the country, suggesting that its ambitious expansion plans are likely to be well-received by consumers.
Lidl also plans to grow its store count, though at a more modest pace than Aldi. And the chain is focusing on its already-existing markets in hopes of entrenching itself further in areas where it already has strong brand recognition.
Geographic segmentation data from the Esri: Tapestry Segmentation dataset within Lidl’s potential and captured markets reveals promising insights into where the retailer might find its most receptive audiences. In its potential market – calculated by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) within Lidl’s trade area according to population size – the share of visitors from "Suburban Periphery" areas was 41.5%. However, in its captured market, determined by weighting each CBG according to its share of actual visits to Lidl – so better representing its current visitor profile – this suburban segment constitutes a significantly larger 56.4%. Conversely, the proportion of visitors originating from "Principal Urban Centers" and "Metro Cities" was higher in Lidl’s potential market compared to its captured market.
These metrics strongly suggest that Lidl has more demand in the suburbs than it may realize – and as it expands, focusing on these areas might prove to be a winning strategy for the chain.
Aldi and Lidl are thriving, growing their audiences during a challenging economic climate.
Will visits to the two chains continue to increase throughout 2025? Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven grocery insights.
Amid rising housing costs and shifting consumer lifestyles, self-storage has emerged as a go-to solution for many Americans. We dove into the data to take the pulse of the market in Q1 2025 – and uncover the audience segments behind the industry’s ongoing growth.
Visits to leading self-storage companies have been on a steady growth trajectory since 2019. During the pandemic, storage utilization surged as many Americans relocated or stored items to free up space for home offices or DIY projects. Since then, high prices and interest rates appear to have further fueled demand, with some households likely deferring space-adding renovations or larger home purchases.
In Q1 2025, visits to Public Storage and CubeSmart were up 24.7% and 30.7%, respectively, compared to a Q1 2019 baseline. Extra Space Storage – which substantially expanded its unit count following its 2023 acquisition of Life Storage – saw visits surge 98.3% over the same baseline. And year over year (YoY), all three chains posted foot traffic growth, partly driven by continued expansion.
The baseline visit analysis also reveals a distinct seasonal pattern in self-storage usage patterns. Each year, visits to self-storage chains peak in Q2 and Q3 (April through September), aligning with spring cleaning, home improvement prime time, and moving season. Then in Q1, visits drop as people stay indoors during winter – likely also making fewer trips to access recreational gear and vehicles in storage.
Who are the consumers driving self-storage visit growth? Looking at the demographic characteristics of Extra Space Storage, Public Storage, and CubeSmart’s visitor bases reveals a common consumer profile across chains. In Q1 2025, the captured markets of all three chains had nearly identical median household incomes (HHIs), very close to the nationwide baseline of $79.6K. Their markets were also disproportionately urban, with higher-than-average shares of renter-occupied and multi-unit housing – all groups more likely to need extra storage space.
Still, as the self-storage market has grown, industry leaders have grown their presence in more affluent suburban markets. Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2025, Extra Space Storage’s share of “Wealthy Suburban Families” rose from 9.1% to 10.1% – slightly above the nationwide baseline of 9.6%. Meanwhile, Public Storage’s share of this segment increased from 8.8% to 9.8%, and CubeSmart’s share remained steady at 10.1%. A similar pattern emerged for “Upper Suburban Diverse Families”, with all three chains at or above the nationwide segment baseline of 9.0% by Q1 2025.
This small but perceptible shift may reflect rising demand from households where adult children are increasingly staying at home or returning after college, prompting a need for additional storage. Spare rooms once used for storage may also be increasingly repurposed into home offices, studios, or workout spaces in the wake of hybrid work trends.
Known for resilience in the face of economic headwinds and uncertainty, the self-storage space appears well-positioned to continue to thrive. How will the segment evolve in the years and months ahead?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Romance novels have long been the unsung heroes of the publishing industry, consistently driving significant sales and topping bestseller lists year after year. And now, the category is getting its moment in the spotlight. Independent bookstores specializing in romance and fantasy are popping up across the country, connecting romance readers with the books they love in a setting exclusively dedicated to them.
We took a look at one recent addition to the romance bookstore world – The Ripped Bodice in Brooklyn, New York – to see what visitation trends reveal about the value of specialty stores in an environment increasingly dominated by general retailers.
The romance category has long been a quiet literary powerhouse – and now, the segment is getting its moment to shine. The rise of “BookTok” has helped propel the category into the spotlight, and independent, romance-centered bookstores are thriving. The Ripped Bodice is one such store: The first one opened in Culver City, CA in 2016, and the second in Brooklyn, NY in 2023. The Ripped Bodice’s Brooklyn location is located within two miles of two Barnes & Noble locations, so comparing visitation trends at the three stores highlights the value that the specialty bookstore adds to the book-centered retail landscape.
Location analytics reveal that visitors to The Ripped Bodice are much more likely to travel long distances to reach the store, with nearly half coming from over 50 miles away. In contrast, the two nearby Barnes & Noble stores saw just 4.8% and 8.6% of their visitors traveling from that distance. This suggests that the bookstore’s unique offerings make it something of a destination for romance lovers. Some vacationers visiting the area may include The Ripped Bodice as a must-see attraction, while others may make a dedicated journey just to explore its curated collection of romance novels.
The Ripped Bodice also attracts more weekend visits than nearby Barnes & Nobles. Over the past 12 months, almost half of visits to the niche bookstore – 48.8% – occurred on Saturdays and Sundays. In contrast, the two nearby Barnes & Noble locations received most of their visits on weekdays, with just 24.4% and 34.2% of their visits taking place on Saturdays and Sundays.
The contrasting weekend traffic trends highlight the unique value that specialized bookstores hold for niche hobbyists. In this case, romance enthusiasts seem to treat a trip to The Ripped Bodice as an activity in and of itself, prioritizing weekend visits to browse, connect with fellow readers, and enjoy a dedicated space for their favorite books and authors.
Further analysis of visitor behavior at The Ripped Bodice and nearby Barnes & Noble locations reveals how the specialized bookstore fosters a sense of community and encourages customers to linger.
On average, visitors to The Ripped Bodice spent 39 minutes in the store – soaking up the special ambiance or participating in the bookseller’s frequent events. In contrast, visitors to the Barnes & Noble on 7th Ave. – which unlike The Ripped Bodice, has an on-site cafe – stayed for an average of 37 minutes, while visitors to the location on Atlantic Ave. lingered for just 32 minutes.
The Ripped Bodice’s longer dwell times serve as a reminder of the value retailers can find in catering to niche interests. Specialized stores often create an environment where customers feel comfortable spending more time, allowing for greater product discovery and stronger loyalty. Retailers of all sizes can consider offering more specialized experiences within their stores to create inviting spaces that encourage exploration among diverse customer groups.
The visitation patterns at The Ripped Bodice can be read as a story of one retailer – but it can also offer insights into the value of catering to niche hobbies. When retailers provide consumers with a dedicated space to explore and deepen their interests, they open up opportunities for success.
Visit Placer.ai for more data-driven retail insights.
We dove into the visit data to see how Starbucks, Dunkin,’ and Dutch Bros are faring in Q1 2025.
Affordable luxuries like coffee tend to do well in times of rising prices and heightened budget-consciousness. So it should come as no surprise that visits to coffee chains have been on the rise recently, with overall traffic to the category up 1.8% year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2025. Much of the increase can be attributed to the aggressive expansions of small and medium coffee chains such as Dutch Bros (13.4% YoY increase in visits in Q1 2025), Scooter’s Coffee (+15.3% YoY) and 7 Brew Coffee (+87.3%).
Meanwhile, visits to coffee leaders Starbucks and Dunkin’ remained relatively stable – falling by just 0.9% and 1.6%, respectively, in line with the wider QSR Q1 2025 YoY visit gap of 1.6%. Contrasting the growth of smaller coffee chains with Starbucks and Dunkin’s minor traffic dips may suggest that consumers prefer to spend their limited discretionary funds on unique or decadent treats instead of on classic drinks and pastries.
But despite the rapid growth of smaller coffee chains, Starbucks continues to dominate the coffee category, receiving over half of combined visits to Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros, Scooter’s Coffee, and 7 Brew Coffee. At the same time, though, Starbucks’ stronghold on the category may be loosening slightly – the Seattle-based coffee giant’s relative visit share fell from 55.8% in Q1 2024 to 51.2% in Q1 2025 as smaller chains continued growing and expanding.
The cross-visitation data also highlights Starbucks’ dominance. In Q1 2025, the majority of visitors to most other coffee chains (51.3% of Dunkin’ visitors, 65.7% of Dutch Bros, and 58.4% of 7 Brew visitors) also visited a Starbucks in the same period. Meanwhile, only 27.4% of Starbucks consumers went to Dunkin’ and 16.4% went to Dutch Bros during the analyzed period, with even smaller shares going to Scooter’s and 7 Brew. So while the smaller chains are clearly making inroads into the coffee market, Starbucks still commands a strong central position, attracting a majority of coffee-goers and enjoying significant loyalty.
Despite the ongoing expansion of Dutch Bros and the rise of smaller coffee chains, Starbucks continues to dominate the U.S. coffee category.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Fueled by customer demand for quality, convenience, and value, CAVA and sweetgreen are cementing their place as leaders in the fast-casual space. The two chains have seen impressive growth over the past few years, adding new locations to keep up with growing demand.
We took a look at their performance over the years to see what might be driving their continued rise.
While the fast-casual dining sector as a whole experienced a slight slowdown in Q1 2025, likely driven by continued budgetary concerns among diners, CAVA and sweetgreen are thriving. The two chains are squarely in expansion mode – and their impressively elevated foot traffic numbers strongly suggest that customers are highly receptive to both chains’ offerings.
In Q1 2025, visits to CAVA were 19.8% higher than in Q1 2024, while Sweetgreen saw its visits increase by 11.1%. In contrast, the wider fast-casual space experienced a visit slowdown of 0.1% during the same period, serving as a reminder of the challenges facing the segment.
Diving into audience segmentation data for both chains provides greater insight into the expansion strategies underlying their strong performance in recent years.
CAVA, which grew from a single location in Maryland to 367 restaurants at the end of 2024, has employed a suburban-focused growth strategy that has brought the chain to a wider audience than ever. The median household income of CAVA’s trade areas has been steadily dropping over the years. And a closer look at shifts in the psychographic segments that make up its visitor base suggests that the chain is reaching new suburban audiences.
Between Q1 2022 and Q1 2025, CAVA steadily broadened its reach among the working and middle-class “Blue Collar Suburbs” and “Suburban Boomers” consumer segments. During the same period, it also gained more traction with the affluent “Upper Suburban Diverse Families” segment – while holding on to its substantial share of “Wealthy Suburban Families.” This suggests that, even as CAVA expands its reach among a wider range of suburban visitors, it has maintained its core audience. While a substantial portion of wealthy customers remains, the chain has effectively opened itself up to a larger and more diverse pool of visitors.
Similarly, sweetgreen has also been increasing its presence in suburban markets. The chain, which leans heavily into automation to improve visitor experience, has made suburban expansion a cornerstone of its strategy – and examining the geographic data clearly demonstrates this shift.
In Q1 2022, 31.3% of sweetgreen’s trade areas were made up of consumer segment groups belonging to the “Suburban Periphery” – defined by the Esri: Tapestry Segmentation dataset as commuter-oriented suburbs with access to major cities and their amenities. But by Q1 2025, this share rose sharply, to 42.2%. Over the same period, the share of “Principal Urban Centers” in sweetgreen’s trade areas dropped from 50.0% to 26.8%.
CAVA and sweetgreen are thriving, seemingly driven by their pushes into suburban markets.
Will the two chains continue to experience visit growth as Q2 gets underway?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
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Indoor malls and open-air centers have posted consistent YoY visit growth, outlet declines have been modest, and early 2026 data shows renewed momentum across all three formats.
Growth in short visits and extended stays – alongside declines in mid-length trips – shows that consumers are gravitating toward trips with a clear purpose, favoring either efficiency or immersion.
Rising dwell times and strong engagement from younger, contemporary households position indoor malls as leading destinations for longer, experience-driven trips.
A higher share of short, weekday visits – along with strong appeal among affluent families – underscores their role as convenient, essential retail hubs.
As off-price and online alternatives erode their treasure-hunt advantage and long-distance visitation softens, outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal.
The malls that thrive will be those that intentionally optimize for convenience, experience, or a disciplined integration of both.
Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the “dead mall” narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving.
What can location analytics tell us about the state of the mall in 2026? Which trends and audiences are driving their performance – and how can operators and retailers best capitalize on the opportunities within the category?
Over the past two years, both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth. And while outlet malls experienced slight declines, the pullback was modest – signaling a period of stability rather than erosion.
Early 2026 data also points to continued momentum, with all three mall formats recording mid-single-digit YoY traffic gains in the first two months of the year. Although it’s still early days – and YoY comparisons in 2026 were boosted by an additional Saturday – the positive start suggests that the industry is entering the year on a solid footing.
With e-commerce always within reach, hybrid work anchoring more consumers at home, and ongoing economic uncertainty influencing spending decisions, trips to physical stores are becoming more intentional. Shopping center visit data reflects this shift as well, with growth in both quick convenience visits and extended experiential outings – alongside a decline in mid-length trips.
In 2025, quick trips (under 30 minutes) increased across all formats, underscoring malls’ growing role as convenient, high-utility destinations for picking up an online order, grabbing a quick bite, or making a targeted purchase. At the same time, extended visits of more than 75 minutes increased at indoor malls and open-air centers, reflecting sustained appetite for immersive, experiential outings.
Meanwhile, mid-length visits (between 30 and 75 minutes) lagged across formats – falling indoor malls and outlet malls and remaining flat at open-air centers – suggesting shoppers are losing patience with undifferentiated trips that lack a clear purpose.
Still, although short visits increased year over year across all mall types, and long visits increased for both indoor malls and open-air centers, the distribution of dwell time varies by format. Short visits make up a larger share of traffic at open-air shopping centers, for example, while longer visits account for a greater share at indoor malls. This divergence underscores the need for format-specific strategies, with operators clearly defining the core shoppers and missions they are best suited to serve and aligning tenant mix, amenities, and marketing accordingly.
Indoor malls, for instance, have increasingly positioned themselves as experiential hubs – particularly for younger consumers. Recent survey data shows that 57% of shoppers aged 18 to 34 report visiting a mall frequently or often, and they are more likely than older cohorts to arrive without a specific purchase in mind.
Foot traffic patterns reinforce this experiential appeal. In 2025, 37.6% of indoor mall visits lasted more than 75 minutes, compared to 33.4% for open-air centers and 34.6% for outlets. Indoor malls also captured the largest share of visits from the young-skewing “contemporary households” segment – singles, non-family households, and young couples without children – indicating strong resonance with younger audiences.
As indoor malls expand their experiential offerings, visit durations are rising even further – even as they hold steady or even slightly decline at other formats. For operators, this shift highlights a significant opportunity for indoor malls to deepen their role as climate-controlled third places. And for brands, it means high-impact access to Gen Z consumers in discovery mode – top-of-funnel engagement that is increasingly difficult and expensive to replicate through digital channels alone.
If indoor malls excel at capturing extended, social visits, open-air centers are finding success through convenience. In 2025, open-air centers had the highest shares of both weekday visits (64.0%) and short, sub-30 minutes (36.8%) among the three formats. Grocery anchors, superstores, and essential-service tenants like gyms – more common at open-air centers than at other formats – help drive steady, non-discretionary traffic.
Demographically, open-air centers drew the highest share of affluent families, a key demographic for daily errands. This alignment with higher-income households, combined with weekday consistency, positions open-air centers as reliable errand hubs embedded in community life.
Outlet malls, for their part, have historically differentiated themselves by offering something shoppers couldn’t find elsewhere: an experiential treasure hunt featuring brand-name merchandise at compelling prices. But the decline in long visits shown above suggests that this positioning may be coming under pressure – likely from the rise of off-price and discount chains as well as other low-cost, convenient treasure-hunt alternatives like thrift stores. When shoppers can score attractive deals online or browse for bargains at a nearby T.J. Maxx or Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, the incentive to dedicate time and travel to an outlet trip may no longer feel as compelling – especially for outlet malls’ core audience, which includes meaningful contingents of middle and lower-income consumers with families.
And data points to a subtle but steady erosion in the share of visitors willing to go the extra mile to visit outlet malls. Since 2023, the share of outlet visits from consumers traveling more than 30 miles has slipped from 33.1% to 31.8%, even as long-distance visits to other mall formats have remained relatively stable. This softening of destination demand may be contributing to outlets’ recent traffic lags.
Still, despite these lags in foot traffic, major outlet companies continue to see YoY increases in same-center tenant sales per square foot. The format’s strong visit start to 2026 also suggests that outlets still have significant draw – and that with the right strategy, they could reinvigorate their traffic trends.
One option is for outlet malls to lean further into their immediate trade areas: Nearly 20% of visits to outlets already originate within five miles – a share that edged up from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.9% in 2025. These closer shoppers may be largely responsible for the segment’s rise in short visits, pointing to an opportunity to further augment BOPIS offerings and select essential-use tenants.
Another option is to strengthen outlets’ destination appeal with distinctive retail, dining, and experiential offerings that resonate with value-oriented, larger-household shoppers. But whether they focus on convenience or on justifying the journey – or attempt to balance both – success will depend on identifying who their shoppers are and which missions they are best positioned to own.
As in other areas of retail, shopping center success increasingly depends on strategic clarity. The malls that thrive will be those that clearly define their role in their customers’ lives and execute against it with intention – whether by decisively optimizing for efficiency, fully investing in experience, or thoughtfully integrating both.
Commercial real estate in 2026 is characterized by differentiated performance across markets and asset types. Office recovery trajectories vary meaningfully by metro, retail performance reflects format-specific resilience, and domestic migration patterns continue to influence long-term demand fundamentals.
Many higher-income metros continue to trail 2019 benchmarks but drive the strongest Year-over-year gains, signaling a potential inflection in office utilization trends.
• Sunbelt markets along with New York, NY are closest to pre-pandemic office visit levels, while many coastal gateway and tech-heavy markets trail 2019 benchmarks.
• Many of the metros still furthest below pre-pandemic levels are now posting the strongest year-over-year gains.
• Leasing velocity may accelerate in coastal markets – particularly in high-quality assets – even if full recovery remains distant. The expansion of AI-driven firms and innovation-focused employers could support incremental demand in these ecosystems, reinforcing a bifurcation between top-tier buildings and the broader office inventory.
• Higher-income metros such as San Francisco show deeper structural gaps vs 2019, perhaps due to their higher concentration of hybrid-eligible workers – yet those same metros are driving the strongest YoY recovery in 2025.
• Accelerating growth in 2025 suggests that shifting employer policies, workplace enhancements, or broader labor dynamics may be beginning to drive increased in-office activity.
• Office performance in higher-income markets will increasingly depend on workplace quality and policy alignment. Assets that support premium amenities, modern design, and tenants implementing clear in-office expectations are likely to influence sustained office visits and leasing velocity in these metros.
Retail traffic is broadly improving across states, though performance varies by region and format.
• Retail traffic growth is broad-based, with the majority of states showing year-over-year gains in shopping center traffic in 2025.
• Still, even as many states are posting gains, pockets of softer performance remain – specifically in parts of the Southeast and Midwest.
• Broad-based traffic gains indicate consumer demand is more durable than anticipated. In growth states, operators can shift from defensive stabilization to capturing upside – pushing rents, upgrading tenant quality, and accelerating leasing while momentum holds. In softer markets, the focus should remain on protecting traffic through strong anchors and necessity-driven tenancy.
• Convenience-oriented formats are leading traffic growth, with strip/convenience centers materially outperforming all other shopping center types, and neighborhood and community centers also posting gains. This reinforces the strength of proximity-driven, daily-needs retail.
• Destination retail formats, including regional malls and factory outlets, continue to lag, while super-regional malls were essentially flat. Larger-format, discretionary-driven centers are not capturing the same momentum as convenience-based formats.
• The data suggests that consumer behavior continues to favor convenience, frequency, and necessity over destination-based shopping. Operators should lean into service-oriented and daily-needs tenancy in strip and neighborhood formats, while mall operators may need to further reposition assets toward experiential, mixed-use, or non-retail uses to stabilize traffic.
Domestic migration continues to reshape state-level demand, with gains clustering in select growth corridors.
• Domestic migration drove population gains in parts of the Southeast and Northern Plains, while several Western and Northeastern states show flat or negative migration.
• Some previously strong in-migration states in the South and West, including Texas and Utah, are showing softer movement, while other established migration leaders such as Florida and the Carolinas continue to attract net inbound residents.
• Migration flows are shifting relative to prior years. Operators should temper growth assumptions in states where inflows are slowing and prioritize markets where inbound demand remains strong.
• Florida dominates metro-level migration growth, with eight of the top ten U.S. metros for net domestic migration are in Florida.
• The markets with the strongest domestic migration-driven population gains are not major gateway cities but smaller, often retirement- or lifestyle-oriented metros, suggesting that migration-driven demand is increasingly flowing to secondary markets.
• CRE operators should prioritize expansion, leasing, and site selection in high-growth secondary metros where population inflows can directly translate into retail spending, housing absorption, and service demand.
1. Expanded grocery supply is increasing overall category engagement. New locations and deeper food assortments across formats are bringing shoppers into the category more often, rather than fragmenting demand.
2. Grocery visit growth is being driven by low- and middle-income households. Elevated food costs are leading to more frequent, budget-conscious trips, reinforcing grocery’s role as a non-discretionary category.
3. Short, frequent trips are a major driver of brick-and-mortar traffic growth. Fill-in shopping, deal-seeking, and omnichannel behaviors are pushing visit frequency higher, even as trip duration declines.
4. Scale is accelerating consolidation among large grocery chains. Larger retailers are using their size to invest in value, assortment, private label, and execution, allowing them to capture longer and more engaged shopping trips.
5. Both large and small grocers have viable paths to growth. Large chains are winning by competing for the full grocery list, while smaller banners can grow by specializing, owning specific missions, or offering compelling value that earns them a place in shoppers’ routines.
While much of the retail conversation going into 2026 focused on discretionary spending pressure, digital substitution, and higher-income consumers as the primary drivers of growth, grocery foot traffic tells a different story.
Rather than being diluted by new formats or eroded by e-commerce, brick-and-mortar grocery engagement is expanding. Visits are rising even as grocery supply spreads across wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. At the same time, growth is being powered not by affluent trade areas, but by low- and middle-income households navigating higher food costs through more frequent, targeted trips. Shoppers are showing up more often and increasingly splitting their trips across retailers based on value, availability, and mission – pushing grocers to compete for portions of the grocery list instead of the full weekly basket.
The data also suggests that the largest grocery chains are capturing a disproportionate share of rising grocery demand – but the multi-trip nature of grocery shopping in 2026 means that smaller banners can still drive traffic growth. By strengthening their value proposition, specializing in specific products, or owning specific shopping missions, these smaller chains can complement, rather than compete with, larger one-stop destinations.
Ultimately, AI-based location analytics point to a clear set of grocery growth drivers in 2026: expanded supply that increases overall engagement, more frequent and mission-driven trips, and continued traffic concentration among large chains alongside new opportunities for smaller banners.
One driver of grocery growth in recent years is simply the expansion of grocery supply across multiple retail formats. Wholesale clubs are constantly opening new locations and discount and dollar stores are investing more heavily in their food selection, giving consumers a wider choice of where to shop for groceries. And rather than fragmenting demand, this broader availability appears to have increased overall grocery engagement – benefiting both dedicated grocery stores and grocery-adjacent channels.
Grocery stores continue to capture nearly half of all visits across grocery stores, wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. That share has remained remarkably stable thanks to consistent year-over-year traffic growth – so even as grocery supply increases across categories, dedicated grocery stores remain the primary destination for food shopping.
Meanwhile, mass merchants have seen a decline in relative visit share as expanding grocery assortments at discount and dollar stores and the growing store fleets of wholesale clubs give consumers more alternatives for one-stop shopping.
While much of the broader retail conversation heading into 2026 centers on higher-income consumers carrying growth, the trend looks different in the grocery space. Recent visit trends show that grocery growth has increasingly shifted toward lower- and middle-income trade areas, underscoring the distinct dynamics of non-discretionary retail.
For lower- and middle-income shoppers, elevated food costs appear to be translating into more frequent grocery trips as consumers manage budgets through smaller baskets, deal-seeking, and shopping across retailers. In contrast, higher-income households – often cited as a key growth engine for discretionary retail – are contributing less to grocery visit growth, likely reflecting more stable shopping patterns or a greater ability to consolidate trips or shift spend online.
This means that, in 2026, grocery growth is not being propped up by high-income consumers. Instead, it is being fueled by necessity-driven shopping behavior in lower- and middle-income communities – reinforcing grocery’s role as an essential category and suggesting that similar dynamics may be at play across other non-discretionary retail segments.
Another factor driving grocery growth is the rise in short grocery visits in recent years. Between 2022 and 2025, the biggest year-over-year visit gains in the grocery space went to visits under 30 minutes, with sub-15 minute visits seeing particularly big boosts. As of 2025, visits under 15 minutes made up over 40% of grocery visits nationwide – up from 37.9% of visits in 2022.
This shift toward shorter visits – especially those under 15 minutes – is driven in part by the continued expansion of omnichannel grocery shopping, as many consumers complete larger stock-up orders online and rely on in-store trips for order collection or quick, fill-in needs. At the same time, the rise in short visits paired with consistent YoY growth in grocery traffic points to additional, behavior-driven forces at play – consumers' growing willingness to shop around at different grocery stores in search of the best deal or just-right product.
Value-conscious shoppers – particularly consumers from low- and middle-income households, which have driven much of recent grocery growth – seem to be increasingly shopping across multiple retailers to secure the best prices. This behavior often involves making targeted trips to different stores in search of the strongest deals, a pattern that is contributing to the rise in shorter, more frequent grocery visits. At the same time, other grocery shoppers are making quick trips to pick up a single ingredient or specialty item – perhaps reflecting the increasingly sophisticated home cooks and social media-driven ingredient crazes. In both these cases, speed is secondary to getting the best value or the right product.
So while some shorter visits reflect a growing emphasis on efficiency – as shoppers use in-store trips to complement primarily online grocery shopping – others appear driven by a preference for value or product selection over speed. Despite their differences, all of these behaviors have one thing in common – they're all contributing to continued growth in brick-and-mortar grocery visits. Grocers who invest in providing efficient in-store experiences are particularly well-positioned to benefit from these trends.
As early as 2022, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains already accounted for roughly half of all grocery visits nationwide. And by outpacing the industry average in terms of visit growth, these chains have continued to capture a growing share of grocery foot traffic.
This widening gap suggests that scale is increasingly enabling grocers to reinvest in the factors that attract and retain shoppers. Larger chains are better positioned to invest in broader and more differentiated product selection, stronger private-label programs that deliver quality at accessible price points, competitive pricing, and operational excellence across stores and omnichannel touchpoints. These capabilities allow top chains to serve a wide range of shopping missions – from quick, convenience-driven trips to more intentional visits in search of the right product or ingredient.
Consolidation at the top of the grocery category is reinforcing a virtuous cycle: scale enables better value, selection, and experience, which in turn draws more shoppers into stores and supports continued grocery traffic growth.
In 2025, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains accounted for a disproportionate share of visits lasting 15 minutes or more, while smaller grocers captured a larger share of the shortest trips. As shown above, larger grocery chains, which tend to attract longer visits, grew faster than the industry overall – but short visits, which skew more heavily toward smaller chains, accounted for a greater share of total traffic growth. Together, these patterns show that both long, destination trips and short, targeted visits are driving grocery traffic growth and creating viable paths forward for retailers of all sizes.
Larger chains are more likely to serve as destinations for fuller shopping missions, competing for the entire grocery list – or a significant share of it. But smaller banners can grow too by competing for more short visits. By specializing in a specific product category, owning a clearly defined shopping mission, or delivering a compelling value proposition, smaller grocers can earn a place in shoppers’ routines and become a deliberate stop within a broader grocery journey.
As grocery moves deeper into 2026, growth is being driven by the cumulative effect of how consumers are navigating food shopping today. Expanded supply has increased overall engagement, higher food costs are driving more frequent and targeted trips, and shoppers are increasingly willing to split their grocery list across retailers based on value, availability, and mission.
Looking ahead, this suggests that grocery growth will remain resilient, but unevenly distributed. Retailers that clearly understand which trips they are best positioned to win – and invest accordingly – will be best placed to capture that growth. Large chains are likely to continue benefiting from scale, consolidation, and their ability to serve full shopping missions, while smaller banners can grow by earning a defined role within shoppers’ broader grocery journeys. In 2026, success in grocery will be less about winning every trip and more about consistently winning the right ones.
