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Following a February slowdown, March 2025 mall data offered early signs of a rebound as indoor mall traffic increased and visit gaps at open-air shopping centers and outlet malls narrowed. Now, April data confirms the resurgence in mall activity, with YoY monthly visits up across all mall formats.
Some of the strength may be due to this year’s relatively late Easter, which fell in April (Easter 2024 took place in March) and may have led to a YoY increase in April 2025 as families utilized the holiday weekend for shopping and leisure. But diving deeper into the data suggests that the calendar shift is just one reason for this month’s strong visit numbers, which may also have been boosted by a pull-forward of consumer demand following the early April tariff announcement.
Looking at daily visits in April reveals that the Easter calendar shift had both a positive and negative impact on mall foot traffic. Visits were strong the week before Easter – particularly on Good Friday – as consumers bought gifts, shopped sales, and used their day off to visit mall-based dining and entertainment venues with friends and family. Outlet malls in particular received a significant boost with visits on April 18th (Good Friday) up 26.2% compared to the April 2025 Friday average – perhaps evidence of a more challenged consumer.
But visits to all three formats also dropped significantly on Easter Sunday, with visits to indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls down 59.4%, 33.3%, and 25.9%, respectively, compared to each format’s Sunday average in April 2025. So while Easter did drive a visit boost before the holiday, Sunday’s traffic drop may have balanced out any Easter-driven increase. Rather, the robust April performance likely reflects sustained consumer demand for mall experiences.
Weekly numbers also suggest that malls’ performance is not just due to an Easter bump. YoY weekly visits increased for all three formats during the last three full weeks of April, with indoor malls and open-air shopping centers receiving the largest boost the week after Easter – pointing to a broader trend of renewed consumer interest in mall-based activities.
The weekly numbers showing visit hikes following April 2nd also suggest that tariffs may already be impacting consumer behavior, with some shoppers likely beginning to stock up ahead of anticipated price increases and possible shortages.
Analyzing the average visit duration adds another layer of insights into malls’ April success.
Last month, the average visit duration increased for all three mall formats – so not only did malls receive more visits YoY, each visit also lasted longer, on average, than it did last year. This may suggest a larger combined basket size, with consumers spending more time in stores or visiting more mall-based retailers in a single trip. This highlights once again the resilience of the format and the ongoing consumer demand for mall-based retail, dining, and entertainment – and may offer another indication of the pull-forward of demand from certain consumers.
April 2025 mall data reveals a significant upswing in mall traffic across all formats along with an increase in average visit duration, demonstrating a recovery that extends beyond the influence of the Easter calendar shift. These positive trends reveal malls’ continued role as key destinations for shopping and leisure – even in times of economic headwinds – and could be pointing to a pull-forward of consumer demand in anticipation of retail uncertainty.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
As new retail construction slows, the trend of repurposing underperforming malls is accelerating, offering exciting opportunities to transform these properties into vibrant mixed-use developments. By blending retail, lifestyle, entertainment, and essential services, these redevelopments can better serve the evolving needs of today’s consumers. Class B malls offer significant potential for investors and retailers to unlock value while meeting the needs of local communities.
According to Green Street, there are 250 Class-B malls in the U.S., making up 28% of all U.S. malls. These properties are typically located in suburban or secondary markets and often feature a mid-tier tenant mix of national and regional retailers within a traditional enclosed mall format. According to Green Street data, A-rated malls boast an impressive 95% occupancy rate, while B malls sit at 89%. Meanwhile, occupancy drops significantly to 72% for C-rated malls and below.
B Malls face a number of challenges in addition to their higher vacancy rates, including lower sales per square foot, less desirable locations, outdated designs, and competition from newer lifestyle centers that offer a more dynamic mix of retail, dining, and entertainment.
Class-B malls, despite their challenges, offer a compelling opportunity for adaptive reuse. Often priced below their original value, these properties are ideal for redevelopment into community-centric hubs, featuring a mix of residential, retail, and public spaces. Reimagining these spaces not only allows investors and developers to achieve significant returns, but also fosters positive economic growth in local communities. For retailers, these revitalized spaces offer the chance to thrive in environments with increasing foot traffic and elevated customer engagement.
Hawthorn Mall, a premier two-story super-regional shopping center in Vernon Hills, Illinois, is one B Mall currently undergoing a significant transformation – and early data suggests that the revitalization efforts are already bearing fruit.
Owned by Centennial Real Estate, Hawthorn is strategically positioned at the intersection of Lake County’s key thoroughfares, offering exceptional convenience and accessibility. The center is anchored by major brands like AMC, Dave & Buster’s, JCPenney, and Macy’s, with a diverse mix of more than 60 retailers and restaurants, including Anthropologie, FP Movement, H&M, Lovesac, PGA Tour Superstore, Perry’s Steakhouse & Grille, and Pure Barre. Now, in the midst of redevelopment, Hawthorn is evolving into a vibrant mixed-use community, integrating luxury residential, expanded retail and dining, and pedestrian-friendly spaces.
Although the Hawthorn Mall redevelopment is still under way, visit quality to the mall has already improved – with the median visit duration rising from 54 minutes between April 2022 and March 2023 to 61 minutes between April 2024 and March 2025. The median household income in Hawthorn’s captured market has increased as well, perhaps thanks to the addition of a luxury apartment complex on the mall’s property. Lastly, the share of evenings visits also grew, suggesting that Hawthorn's revamped dining and entertainment are making it an increasingly popular evening destination for locals.
Class-B malls represent a unique opportunity to meet both market demands and community needs through thoughtful redevelopment. While challenges such as securing financing, navigating zoning and regulatory hurdles, and managing costs exist, the potential rewards are significant. Successful redevelopment requires targeted tenant curation, strategic location, and a bold, forward-thinking vision. With expansive footprints, prime access, and adaptability, Class-B malls are perfectly positioned to evolve into dynamic, mixed-use centers – redefining retail experiences and meeting the needs of modern consumers and communities.
Traffic to First Watch continues to climb as the company forges on with its expansion. Visits to the chain were 7.3% higher year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2025 as visits per location held essentially steady (-0.8% YoY) – revealing that demand for the breakfast, brunch, and lunch dining concept remains robust despite the consumer headwinds.
And according to the latest monthly data, First Watch may be in even better shape than its already strong Q1 2024 visit numbers suggest. In April 2025, overall visits to the chain grew 10.5% YoY while visits per location increased by 3.0% – indicating that the morning and afternoon-focused dining brand likely still has more room to grow.
For more data-driven consumer analysis, visit placer.ai/anchor.
While Warby Parker and Allbirds both originated as direct-to-consumer brands, they have since firmly established themselves as brick-and-mortar retailers. Warby Parker, known for its quirky and affordable approach to eyecare, has around 270 stores in the United States, while Allbirds, which recently underwent a significant rightsizing process, currently operates 24 stores across the country.
We took a look at the visit data for the two retailers to explore how they are faring thus far in 2025.
Warby Parker continues to impress. The eyewear chain, which transitioned from an online-only model to physical stores in 2013, spent 2024 adding stores to its current fleet – and visit data highlights the positive impact of this expansion.
Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 visits to Warby Parker were 13.4% and 6.6% higher, respectively, than in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. Average visits per location, too, showed growth in Q4 2024 (+4.9%), though they slowed slightly in Q1 2025. Still, Warby Parker’s ability to drive visit growth while keeping average visits per location stable suggests that its expansions are meeting with consistent demand.
Weekly visits from 2025 onward highlight the brands’ strong positioning, with YoY visit growth in most analyzed weeks. (The significant YoY visit decline during the weeks of March 31st and April 7th is likely due to the comparison with last year’s major eclipse-related promotion, during which the chain offered free solar eclipse glasses.)
Shoewear company Allbirds has been charting a new performance course over the last year. The chain, known for its sustainable approach to footwear, recently closed nearly a third of its U.S. fleet in an attempt to optimize its stateside operations. And this consolidation, which allows Allbirds to prioritize top-performing locations, has yielded promising results for the chain.
While YoY visits were down across all analyzed months – an anticipated outcome given the significant reduction in store count – average visits per location, a more relevant indicator of Allbirds’ performance, were up on a near-constant basis. In Q1 2025, visits declined by 35.8% YoY, but visits per location grew by 14.1%.
Monthly visits followed a similar pattern: while overall visits declined by 25.9% YoY in March 2025, visits per location were up by 23.8%. This positive trend continued into April 2025, with overall visits down by just 9.2% YoY and visits per location remaining elevated at 21.0%, suggesting a strengthened performance at the remaining Allbirds stores.
This focus on a more efficient store footprint seems to be paying off for Allbirds, allowing the chain to accurately target its most receptive audience while cutting out underperforming locations.
Warby Parker and Allbirds are performing well, highlighting the importance of remaining agile and pivoting to meet evolving consumer challenges.
Will the two retailers continue to thrive?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail news.
Some moments in our lives remain ingrained in our heads. One such time period was March of 2020, when it felt like the world suddenly stood still as malls, street retail, and dining establishments closed, everyone masked up, and only essential retail and health services continued. After a while, limitations relaxed, but not without a subconscious preference for open-air shopping centers that appears to linger to this day. Granted, many open-air shopping centers are also newer or redeveloped, thus likely contributing to their popularity. However, there’s no doubt that they’ve rebounded at a higher rate compared to their indoor mall and even outlet mall counterparts.
We analyzed traffic data for one of the most-visited open-air shopping centers in the nation, Victoria Gardens, to see what sets it apart and what continues to draw consumers to open-air centers.
This open-air shopping center is over 1.1 million square feet and hosts over 160 retailers within its borders. In addition to marquee brands such as Apple, lululemon, AMC Theatres, and Cheesecake Factory, it also has regional favorites such as Seven Grams dumpling house and cult-favorite Duck Donuts. Boasting a 160 acre main street community, its walkable layout beckons while classics play in the background. Quite a few of the concepts at Victoria Gardens are on trend. For instance, the Food Hall features local eatery Elephant Thai, which is perfectly in keeping with the popularity of all things Thai these days with Season 3 of White Lotus being set in Koh Samui.
Another genre that one doesn’t often see in more urban mall locations are two retailers devoted to Western wear – Buckle and Tecovas.
Tecovas has a fascinating backstory with its founder, Paul Hedrick, partnering initially with bootmakers from Leon, Mexico, the “boot-making capital of the Americas” and selling his first pairs from the backseat of his SUV. With an average dwell time of 40 minutes between April 2024 and February 2025 and holiday spikes for Thanksgiving and Christmas, it’s clear that for many shoppers, a pair of Tecova boots are on their wishlist.
One of the more unique aspects of this mall is its Cultural Center on premise. With a performing arts theater, library, and interactive children’s museum right next to retail, dining, and a movie theater, it’s truly a one-stop shop for its community.
As shopping centers continue to evolve, with many adopting a Town Square approach, the appeal of open-air shopping centers – full of public spaces, greenery, walkable paths, and fresh air – will only continue to grow.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Aldi and Lidl have firmly established themselves as discount powerhouses. The two German retailers entered the United States market at different times, with Aldi opening its first location in 1976 and Lidl making its way stateside in 2017 – and diving into the foot traffic shows that both are thriving.
In the first quarter of 2025, visits to Aldi and Lidl saw significant year-over-year (YoY) increases of 8.9% and 4.2%, respectively – well above the industry-wide average (0.9%.)
Aldi, which has been on an expansion tear for the past few years, saw a YoY increase in average visits per location – but so did Lidl, which has been slower to add new locations. And this growth – 4.7% at Aldi and 1.9% at Lidl – highlights that their stores, whether new locations or already-existing ones, are driving sustained demand.
A closer look at visitor behavior offers valuable insights into the factors driving the foot traffic success of Aldi and Lidl.
A significantly larger proportion of Aldi and Lidl's visits – 37.2% and 37.7%, respectively – took place on Saturdays and Sundays compared to visits to traditional and value grocery stores. This suggests that the attractive price points offered by Aldi and Lidl position them as prime destinations for shoppers making weekend stock-up trips.
On a chain level, both Aldi and Lidl are finding their own paths to success. Aldi is currently undergoing a significant growth phase, aiming to operate 800 stores by the end of 2028. This ambitious trajectory includes adding at least 225 new locations in 2025 alone – and examining the visit distribution across Aldi's largest markets provides valuable insights into how its strategy is unfolding. Contextualizing Aldi’s performance against the wider grocery segment provides a birds-eye view of the value grocer’s performance.
Over the past few years, Aldi has consistently increased its visit share when compared to the overall grocery segment, both nationally and across its major markets. For instance, in Florida, one of Aldi’s largest markets, its visit share grew from 4.8% in Q1 2022 to 7.0% in Q1 2025. And in Illinois, now its second-largest market, Aldi increased its visit share from 12.2% to 14.8% over the same period.
This consistent growth in visit share underscores the broad appeal of Aldi's value proposition to shoppers across the country, suggesting that its ambitious expansion plans are likely to be well-received by consumers.
Lidl also plans to grow its store count, though at a more modest pace than Aldi. And the chain is focusing on its already-existing markets in hopes of entrenching itself further in areas where it already has strong brand recognition.
Geographic segmentation data from the Esri: Tapestry Segmentation dataset within Lidl’s potential and captured markets reveals promising insights into where the retailer might find its most receptive audiences. In its potential market – calculated by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) within Lidl’s trade area according to population size – the share of visitors from "Suburban Periphery" areas was 41.5%. However, in its captured market, determined by weighting each CBG according to its share of actual visits to Lidl – so better representing its current visitor profile – this suburban segment constitutes a significantly larger 56.4%. Conversely, the proportion of visitors originating from "Principal Urban Centers" and "Metro Cities" was higher in Lidl’s potential market compared to its captured market.
These metrics strongly suggest that Lidl has more demand in the suburbs than it may realize – and as it expands, focusing on these areas might prove to be a winning strategy for the chain.
Aldi and Lidl are thriving, growing their audiences during a challenging economic climate.
Will visits to the two chains continue to increase throughout 2025? Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven grocery insights.
Five metros from across the United States stand out for consumer momentum going into 2026: Salt Lake City (UT), Reno (NV), Indianapolis (IN), Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (FL), and Raleigh-Durham (NC). All five metro areas saw their populations increase by more than the average U.S. metro between 2023 and 2024, and year-over-year (YoY) retail and dining traffic trends outpaced the nationwide average.
Utah is one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S. The state’s population has grown steadily for more than two decades with unemployment remaining consistently below the nationwide average, with one of the youngest workforces in the country. According to some analysts, the median household income in Utah, when adjusted for cost of living, is the highest in the nation.
All of this positions Salt Lake City – the state’s capital – as a particularly attractive market heading into 2026. Location analytics show year-over-year increases in foot traffic across many neighborhoods, from established retail hubs like Sugar House and Downtown SLC to the more mixed-use Central City and primarily residential areas such as The Avenues and East Bench. The city also serves as a gateway to a diverse mix of audiences, attracting younger residents and commuters as well as affluent families who come into the city to shop, dine, and enjoy local attractions.
Salt Lake City’s diversity in age and household composition as well as Utah's strong homeownership culture – even among younger cohorts – creates opportunities for retail and dining chains across categories. Home-forward concepts are particularly poised to outperform, as shown by recent location analytics. Traffic to furniture & home furnishing chains increased 7.4% YoY in the Salt Lake City DMA compared to a 2.5% increase nationwide, and grocery stores and home improvement retailers outperformed in the market as well. These trends point to a solid market for retailers tied to home life – from furniture and décor to everyday grocery needs –driven not only by steady population growth and household spending, but also by a local culture that places strong emphasis on family and the home.
While Salt Lake City continues to build on its strong foundation, another Western city is quietly gaining momentum. Reno, Nevada, which is often viewed as a regional gaming-town, is increasingly emerging as a dynamic travel destination in its own right.
In 2024 Washoe County (including the city of Reno) welcomed approximately 3.8 million visitors whose spending of about $3.4 billion generated a total economic impact of $5.2 billion. This growth signals a robust visitor-economy that supports roughly 43,800 jobs and generates over $420 million in state and local tax revenue.
What makes this particularly compelling is that while Las Vegas, Nevada is facing mounting pressures from increasing costs, the Reno-Tahoe region is showing stronger resilience thanks in part to a drive-market model and diversified appeal. Analyzing the traffic data shows that visits from non-residents, and non-employees to downtown Reno have increased YoY for the past three years. And though Reno may be thought of as a vacation spot for older Gen X and Baby Boomer vacationers, the data also indicates that Singles & Starters –"young singles starting out and some starter families living a city lifestyle" – make up an increasingly large share of Reno's visitor base.
This generational diversification carries important implications for both retail and real estate investment. As younger visitors drive up spending in food, entertainment, and shopping centers, the market is poised for renewed urban energy – fueling redevelopment across downtown corridors and mixed-use projects. With strategic public–private investments and an expanding visitor economy, Reno stands out as a market to watch in 2026, combining strong fundamentals with emerging demographic momentum.
The Midwest also contains several metro areas on the rise. Large-scale manufacturing projects like Intel’s $20 billion chip plants and Honda and LG Energy Solution’s EV battery facility are spurring housing and retail expansion around Columbus, Ohio. Kansas City, Missouri, is benefiting from logistics growth and projected tourism growth linked to its role as a FIFA World Cup 2026 host city. And Madison, Wisconsin, is seeing steady consumer growth is supported by its diverse tech and biotech economy.
But Indianapolis, Indiana tops the charts in terms of YoY overall retail visit growth between May and October 2025 (+4.3%, see first chart). And much of the consumer traffic in the Indianapolis DMA consists of suburban and rural households – precisely the segments that many retailers are now trying to woo.
Family-friendly retailers and dining chains are particularly well positioned to thrive in Indiana heading into 2026. Indianapolis has some of the best job prospects and most affordable home prices in the country – and its favorable salary to cost of living ratio likely allows many families to have leftover income left over for discretionary spending.
Recent data shows that a range of family-oriented brands – from Chili’s and Marshall’s to Kroger – have outperformed in Indianapolis over the past six months. The city’s growing middle-income population and its suburban, family-focused consumer base appear to be fueling stronger in-person spending, particularly at convenient, affordable, and community-oriented retail and dining destinations.
Moving east to North Carolina brings several additional growing metros into focus, including Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, and Charlotte. But Raleigh rises above the pack with its powerful combination of job growth, steady in-migration, and a well-balanced, diversified economy.
All this is leading to YoY increases in total traffic within the Raleigh-Durham, NC DMA, driven in part by major firms – including entrants in finance and life-sciences – continuing to expand operations in the area. The city of Raleigh also has relatively low median age and relatively high median household income. This combination of robust job creation, wage gains, and a growing pool of young, high-spending residents positions Raleigh as one of the most dynamic consumer markets in the Southeast heading into 2026.
Raleigh's consumer growth potential is particularly stark when looking at performance of major mixed-use developments across the region. Foot traffic at leading projects such as Smoky Hollow, the Main District at North Hills Street, and Fenton in Cary has climbed sharply.
The data also shows that these destinations attract a disproportionately high share of wealthy singles and one-person households – a demographic with strong discretionary spending power. Together, these trends point to a deepening base of urban, high-income consumers fueling growth in dining, retail, and entertainment – making Raleigh one of the country's most dynamic and opportunity-rich metro areas heading into 2026.
In the Southeast, Tampa is one of the nation’s standout metro areas heading into 2026. Strong fundamentals – such as no state income tax and expanding employment in sectors like technology, healthcare, and logistics – have attracted a significant influx of Gen Z and millennial residents. And although in-migration is beginning to slow somewhat, the city's expanding economy and youthful talent base continue to fuel growth across housing, retail, and dining.
And as more companies require employees to spend additional days in the office, YoY commuter traffic has increased across Tampa’s major cities. Leisure visits from non-residents are also on the rise, suggesting that retailers and dining chains seeking to capture this expanding market could benefit from growing their presence throughout the Tampa metro area.
Rising traffic across Tampa’s major urban areas appears to be translating into stronger dining activity as well. Over the past six months, average YoY visits to Tampa area full-service restaurants, coffee shops, and fast-casual chains have all exceeded the national average, which may reflect a broader acceleration in both local workforce and leisure-visitor demand.
1. Retail is deeply divided. Visits to value and luxury apparel segments grew YoY in 2025 while traffic to mid-tier retailers flagged.
2. Upscale dining momentum reflects similar bifurcation. More resilient, affluent consumers are bolstering fine-dining traffic.
3. Authenticity is key. Brands successfully executing on a clear sense of purpose – from community-driven grocers to bookstores – are driving consistent visit growth.
4. Online and offline retail are converging into a seamless ecosystem. As consumers seek online value and in-person convenience, AI fulfillment, dark stores, and local pickup are accelerating.
5. Digitally native brands expanding into physical retail are redefining omnichannel. These chains provide a blueprint for merging digital efficiency with personalized in-store experiences.
6. Traditionally urban brands are shifting to suburbia to capture new audiences. With consumers rooted in hybrid lifestyles and growing suburban demand, chains that adapt their footprints drive fresh traffic.
7. Expansion into college markets and celebrity pop-ups are helping retailers and malls connect with younger consumers. Brands that grew their footprints in college towns or on campuses increased their Gen Z traffic, as did malls that hosted celebrity or influencer activations.
Retail and dining faced another complex year in 2025. Persistent economic headwinds and uncertainty surrounding tariffs intensified consumers’ focus on value, even as affluent shoppers continued to indulge in luxury brands and upscale dining experiences.
Yet the year also revealed behavioral shifts that extended beyond price sensitivity. Shoppers increasingly prioritized brands that convey authenticity and a clear sense of purpose – those that deliver value not only through price, but through omnichannel convenience, product quality, and brand ethos.
For their part, retailers and malls continued to evolve, adopting strategies to capture both the expanding suburban market and a rising generation of younger consumers emerging as a defining force in retail.
How have these trends evolved, and how will they shape the retail landscape in 2026? We dove into the data to find out.
The first three quarters of 2025 underscored a widening divide in the apparel sector, with strength at both ends of the price and income spectrums.
Off-price retailers and thrift stores, which draw shoppers from lower- and middle-income trade areas, gained significant ground – reflecting consumers’ ongoing search for value and treasure-hunt experiences that feel both economical and rewarding. At the same time, luxury maintained modest growth, showing that high-income shoppers remain resilient and willing to spend on premium experiences. Meanwhile, traditional apparel and mid-tier department stores continued to see visit declines, signaling further pressure on the retail middle. Retailers such as Target and Kohl’s, traditional staples of this middle segment, are contending with the challenge of defining their identity to consumers in a market increasingly split between value and luxury.
Looking ahead to 2026, mid-tier retailers will need to navigate a complex and polarized landscape. Without the clear positioning enjoyed by value and luxury players, success will require sharper differentiation and disciplined execution. But though the middle remains a tough place to compete, it still holds potential: Brands that can redefine relevance – something many of these same chains achieved just a few years ago – stand to capture consumers with spending power.
A similar bifurcation dynamic is also unfolding in the dining sector.
Upscale full-service restaurants (FSRs) are outperforming their casual dining counterparts, as higher-income consumers – and those dining out for special occasions – seek elevated experiences at fine-dining chains.
At the same time, more cost-conscious diners are trading down from casual dining FSRs to fast-casual chains, which continue to outperform the casual dining segment. Fast-casual brands are also benefiting from trading up within the limited-service segment, as consumers who choose to eat out – rather than eat at home or grab a lower-cost prepared meal at a c-store or grocery – opt for more experiences that feel more premium yet remain accessible.
Across both retail and dining, bifurcation doesn’t tell the whole story. Even as spending concentrates at the high and low ends of the market, a growing number of brands are succeeding by delivering an experience that feels intentional, distinctive, and true to their identity. These concepts share a clear raison d’être – a sense of purpose that resonates with consumers – as well as successful execution. The data shows that brands providing this kind of “on-point” experience are driving consistent visit growth in 2025, signaling that authenticity may be important retail currency in 2026.
Trader Joe’s sustained momentum reflects its ability to make shopping feel like discovery. The chain’s locally-inspired assortments, roughly 80% private-label mix, and steady rotation of seasonal products keep visits fresh and engagement high.
Sprouts, for its part, continues to benefit from a sharpened identity centered on freshness, sustainability, and health. Its smaller-format stores, curated product mix, and messaging around healthy living have helped it build a loyal base of wellness‐oriented shoppers.
Meanwhile, Barnes & Noble’s transformation offers a compelling case study in the power of experience. Its strategy of empowering local managers to curate store selections and host community events has turned stores into cultural touchpoints – driving increased visits and dwell times.
All three brands derive their strength from their clarity of purpose – illustrating how authenticity and intentionality are becoming meaningful factors shaping consumer engagement.
Authenticity isn’t limited to national names. Regional players such as H-E-B and In-N-Out Burger demonstrate how deeply ingrained local identity can translate into sustained growth.
H-E-B’s community-driven ethos, local sourcing, and operational excellence have built trust across Texas markets, helping it remain one of the country’s most beloved grocery chains, with high rates of shoppers visiting multiple times a month. And in the quick-service category, California-native In-N-Out Burger stands out for its quality, nostalgia, and mystique, as the chain continues to attract visitation trends that exceed national QSR benchmarks.
These brands demonstrate that authenticity can have a local element. Their success reflects not just product strength or efficiency, but a deeper connection to the communities they serve.
While regional and experience-driven brands continue to build deep consumer connections, the broader retail landscape is also being reshaped by operational innovation. As technology and infrastructure improve, retailers are finding new ways to merge digital efficiency with convenient physical touchpoints.
E-commerce growth and in-store activity are increasingly interconnected. Visits to ecommerce distribution centers* climbed steadily between October 2021 and September 2025, while the share of short, under-10-minute trips to big-box chains Target, Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club also increased. Together, these patterns suggest that while online shopping continues to expand, consumers remain highly engaged with physical locations through buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) and same-day fulfillment channels – combining the value of online deals with the convenience of quick, local pickup.
This trend also reflects ongoing advancements in AI-driven fulfillment and Walmart’s testing of dark stores – retail spaces converted into local fulfillment hubs that accelerate delivery and enable quick customer pickup. These innovations are shortening fulfillment windows while optimizing store networks for hybrid demand.
As retailers continue to blur the boundaries between digital and physical commerce in 2026, expect them to become increasingly complementary parts of a single, omnichannel ecosystem.
*The Placer.ai E-commerce Distribution Center Index measures foot traffic across more than 400 distribution centers nationwide, including facilities operated by leading retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target. Designed as a barometer for U.S. e-commerce activity, the index captures two key audiences: employees, estimated through dwell-time patterns, and visitors, who often represent logistics partners delivering raw materials, moving in-process goods, or collecting finished products.
The resurgence of digitally native brands embracing physical retail underscores how online and offline strategies are converging into an integrated model, combining digital efficiency with the benefits of a physical presence.
Framebridge, a DTC custom framing brand, offers a clear example of this trend. As the brand has expanded its footprint, the average number of monthly visits to each of its locations rose sharply throughout 2025.
Framebridge’s success lies in its well-executed omnichannel model. Customers can place orders online or in store, with the option to ship directly to their homes or pick up in person.
But for Framebridge, physical locations aren’t just about convenience. Art and memories are often one of a kind, so having knowledgeable staff in store and the opportunity to engage with materials firsthand transforms a transaction into a personalized, consultative experience.
Framebridge exemplifies how digitally native brands are merging the ease of online shopping with physical spaces that provide a personal touch. And more digitally native brands, like Gymshark, are looking to bring their business offline with the hope of adding value for consumers.
As retailers advance their omnichannel strategies, another enduring shift is reshaping the retail map post-pandemic – the continued rise of suburban traffic. Brands that entered the pandemic with strong suburban footprints were among the first to benefit as in-person activity rebounded, while urban-focused chains that expanded outward have met migrating consumers and captured new audiences anchored in hybrid lifestyles and local shopping routines.
Large-format and drive-thru focused brands like Costco, Cava, and Dutch Bros. entered the pandemic era from a position of strength as they are traditionally situated in suburban and exurban areas. As consumers spent more time close to home and away from urban centers, these chains captured heightened local demand and saw visits rebound rapidly once in-person shopping resumed.
And as the pandemic reshaped consumer traffic patterns, brands like Shake Shack and Chipotle quickly recognized emerging opportunities in suburban markets and adjusted their strategies to capture this shifting demand. For Shake Shack – a brand once defined by its urban storefronts – the shift toward suburban drive-thrus and stand-alone locations represented a significant pivot. Chipotle followed a similar path, accelerating its suburban expansion through the rollout of “Chipotlane” drive-thru lanes.
Arriving somewhat later to the suburban landscape, sweetgreen, once synonymous with its urban footprint, opened its first drive-thru in 2022, and by 2024 had made suburban markets a core pillar of its growth strategy.
These real estate moves positioned all three brands to capture demand from remote and hybrid workers, helping sustain visit growth well above pre-pandemic baselines.
As suburban demand continues to grow, the suburbs will likely remain a critical growth frontier for many brands in the year ahead.
Investment in suburban markets underscores how changing market conditions and strategy adaptation can allow brands to meet consumers where they are. And a parallel trend is unfolding in college towns and youth-dense trade areas, where brands are channeling investment to capture rising Gen Z spending power.
Expansion in college-anchored markets, paired with celebrity and influencer-driven pop-ups, is helping retailers build cultural relevance and increase engagement with this emerging consumer base.
The graph below underscores how targeted expansion into college-anchored markets can meaningfully shift audience composition. Over the last several years, many brands have expanded their near-campus footprints – and in turn, attracted a higher share of the Spatial.ai:PersonaLive “Young Urban Singles” segment, one highly aligned with Gen Z consumers.
CAVA’s rapid unit growth, including openings near major universities and in college towns, helped the brand increase its share of “Young Urban Singles” within its captured trade areas between October 2018-September 2019 and October 2024-September 2025. Meanwhile, Panda Express and Raising Cane's, which already had relatively large shares of the segment six years ago, have also invested in college-adjacent locations, lifting their “Young Urban Singles” audience share.
Even legacy mass retailer Target benefited from small-format and large store expansions near universities – growing its captured market share of “Young Urban Singles”.
These shifts suggest that college towns will continue to be strategic growth markets, including for luxury brands like Hermès. By making inroads in college towns and with Gen Z shoppers, brands can strengthen loyalty early and build durable market share that remains as these young adults move on from campus life.
As Gen Z’s influence expands beyond campus borders, retail engagement is increasingly driven by cultural moments that resonate with this cohort. And malls are finding that temporary pop-ups including influencer collaborations and celebrity-led activations can attract these young consumers.
At The Grove, the Pandora pop-up with brand ambassador girl-group Katseye in October 2024 led to a modest but significant increase in the Gen Z-dominant “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” segments within the mall’s captured trade area during the first week of the activation – compared to the average for the last twelve months.
Similarly, at Westfield Century City, the Taylor Swift x TikTok activation from October 3rd-9th, 2025 – which allowed fans to immerse themselves in the sets from the viral “The Fate of Ophelia” music video boosted the shares of “Young Urban Singles” and Young Professionals”, underscoring the star power of everything Taylor Swift.
And at American Dream, the pattern extended beyond younger audiences. On September 5th and 6th, 2025, Ninja Kidz attended the grand opening of their Action Park while Salish Matters made an appearance at the mall on September 6th for her skincare pop-up – which drew such large crowds that it had to be shut down. During these two event days, the mall’s shares of both “Young Professionals” and “Ultra-Wealthy Families” increased substantially, highlighting that pop-up events can draw young and affluent family audiences.
Together, these examples reinforce that, in 2026, the integration of short-term pop-ups will continue to be a strategy for malls and individual brands to gain relevance for key demographic segments.
2025 reinforced that retail remains as dynamic as ever. Value continues to anchor decisions, but consumers are redefining what value means – blending price sensitivity with expectations for authenticity. And in the current retail landscape, online and physical retail are growing more interconnected as consumers demand convenience and experience.
In 2026, adaptability will be retailers’ greatest competitive edge. The next era of retail will belong to brands that can continue to refine their operating strategy – while staying true to a clear brand identity.
1) Retail foot traffic faces lingering pressure – making promotions more critical than ever. Financial uncertainty, tariffs, and inflation continue to weigh on discretionary spending, making well-timed, targeted holiday promotions essential to reignite demand and drive in-store traffic.
2) The retail divide appears set to widen this holiday season – Luxury and off-price apparel are both outpacing overall retail, reflecting a deepening bifurcation of consumer behavior. And this December, the affluence gap between the two categories is expected to expand further, underscoring opportunities to engage both premium and value-focused shoppers across segments.
3) Despite slower overall performance, beauty and electronics have performed well during recent retail milestones. To make the most of this momentum, advertisers should align campaigns with shifting holiday audiences – electronics toward married homeowners and beauty toward affluent suburban families.
4) Early Promotions Could Lift In-Store Traffic – Last year, early holiday campaigns helped offset a shorter shopping season and sustain strong results. With another condensed window and continued shipping disruptions, retailers who start early and emphasize in-store availability will be best positioned to capture additional visits and outperform 2024’s results.
The holiday season is fast approaching, but this year’s backdrop looks especially complex. Consumers are navigating heightened financial uncertainty, with tariffs driving up prices and disrupting supply, while inflation continues to weigh on discretionary spending.
For retailers and advertisers, the stakes are high. The holiday period remains a critical window for promotional engagement, and success will depend on understanding consumer behavior and crafting promotions that are timed, targeted, and designed to meet shoppers where they are.
We turned to foot traffic data to uncover the key trends shaping this season’s retail environment, and to identify promotional strategies likely to succeed.
Consumer activity appeared strong in most of early 2025 – except in February, when extreme weather and leap-year comparisons drove sharp year-over-year (YoY) declines. But foot traffic slowed this summer, highlighting the toll of lingering financial uncertainty and strain.
For advertisers, this underscores how pivotal seasonal promotions will be in reigniting demand. With many consumers cutting back on discretionary spending, well-timed and well-targeted campaigns will be essential to encourage shoppers to spend more freely during the holidays. These promotions don’t have to rely solely on price cuts — pop-culture collaborations and other creative product launches have also proven highly effective in driving traffic this year.
> Financial uncertainty and tighter household budgets are weighing on retail foot traffic this year – making effective holiday promotions more critical than ever.
Still, not all retail categories have been equally affected by broader economic headwinds. Some segments have experienced softer demand, signaling where advertisers may need to take a more measured, efficiency-focused approach. Others, however, have shown notable resilience – offering opportunities to double down on creative promotions that deepen engagement during the holidays.
One such segment is home furnishings, which has seen YoY traffic gains over the past 12 months, driven by the strong performance of discount chains as shoppers favor accessible décor updates over large-scale renovations. Strategic campaigns highlighting affordable refreshes and quick “holiday-ready” makeovers could give the category an additional lift in Q4, as households look to update their spaces in preparation for hosting family and friends.
But the biggest gains have been in the apparel category, where a bifurcation trend has emerged, boosting visits at both luxury and off-price retailers. The success of both segments underscores promotional strategies that can amplify momentum – steep-value discounts on one end of the spectrum, and exclusivity and quality on the other. Advertisers across retail segments can adapt this dual approach to engage both budget-driven and premium audiences effectively.
And demographic data reveals just how deeply entrenched this bifurcation has become – especially during the holiday season.
The chart below examines monthly changes in the median household incomes (HHIs) of luxury and off-price retailers’ captured markets since January 2023. Even small shifts in HHI across major retail categories can signal meaningful changes in audience composition – and these patterns tell a clear story.
In luxury apparel, where the median HHI is well above the national average of $79.6K, visitor income follows a distinct seasonal rhythm. During the early holiday shopping period, HHI remains lower in October and dips slightly in November as middle-income shoppers take advantage of early promotions to snag products that may be out of reach the rest of the year. It then rises in December as affluent consumers return to purchase gifts. Notably, luxury HHI has trended upward since 2023 – with each holiday peak higher than the last – suggesting that this December’s visitor base will be even more affluent than last year.
For advertisers, this means late-season campaigns should prioritize prestige audiences while still engaging aspirational shoppers during early holiday promotions like Black Friday.
In the off-price apparel segment, on the other hand, median HHI typically declines during the holidays – especially in December – indicating an influx of more price-sensitive shoppers. And over time, this visitor base has become even more value-driven, reinforcing the importance of promotional messaging that emphasizes unbeatable deals and savings.
Together, these patterns once again highlight the growing need for tailored strategies: premium experiences for high earners and sharp value propositions for cost-conscious consumers – a lesson that may extend well beyond these categories.
>The retail divide is expected to deepen further in December 2025, with off-price retailers drawing more value-driven shoppers and luxury brands attracting increasingly affluent consumers.
In a challenging economic environment, one might expect promotions around key retail milestones to prompt consumers to deviate from their usual habits, experimenting with new brands or categories. Yet the data shows that, for the most part, shoppers instead deepened their engagement with the retailers they already patronize – utilizing holiday promotions to buy the same products at better prices.
The graph below shows that during recent shopping milestones, the off-price and luxury categories both stood out in YoY performance – reflecting the strong momentum sustained by both segments over the past twelve months.
Still, the graph above also highlights two additional segments potentially poised for holiday success: beauty & self care and electronics.
Despite slower traffic over the past year, beauty retailers saw notable spikes around key recent promotional moments – including Black Friday, Mother’s Day, and Memorial Day. And although electronics retailers continued to face headwinds as consumers delayed big-ticket purchases – including during last year’s Black Friday – more recent milestones have seen traffic stabilize or even increase YoY.
This indicates that the right promotional environment can still effectively drive engagement in these discretionary categories, and that deal-driven behavior is likely to remain a defining theme this holiday season. In addition, as the replacement cycle begins for major electronics first purchased during the pandemic, shoppers may be especially willing to upgrade to a new TV or laptop if the right offer comes along.
But to make the most of the opportunity presented by Q4, advertisers and retailers in the beauty and electronics spaces should pay close attention to the shifting demographics of their in-store audiences during the holiday season.
For electronics retailers, married couples and homeowners become increasingly important during the peak holiday shopping period. Their share in the category’s captured market rises consistently each December, indicating that campaigns emphasizing household upgrades, family entertainment, and quality-of-life improvements may resonate most effectively in late Q4.
In contrast, beauty retailers – typically buoyed by young professionals – see their audience composition shift towards suburbia during the holidays. In December, the share of wealthy suburban families in beauty retailers’ captured markets grows meaningfully, while the share of young professionals declines. Advertisers can capitalize by highlighting premium bundles, limited-edition sets, and gifting options that speak directly to these households’ desire for premium, family-oriented products.
> Off-price and luxury retailers maintained strong performance during major retail milestones, but beauty and electronics stand out as rising opportunities for the 2025 holiday season.
> As holiday demographics shift during the holiday season – with electronics drawing more married homeowners and beauty attracting wealthier suburban families – campaigns that reflect these audiences’ lifestyles and priorities will resonate most.
Timing is also a decisive factor in retailer and advertiser success during the holiday season.
Traditionally, the “core” holiday retail period begins with Black Friday and continues until Christmas Eve. But in 2024, there was one fewer week between these two milestones compared to the previous year. And to compensate, many retailers launched an “early” holiday season, rolling out promotions in October and early November to maximize consumer engagement.
As the graph below shows, the shorter “core” season of 2024 unsurprisingly drew less in-store traffic across retail categories than the longer period the year before. Yet by embracing early promotions, retailers offset much of this shortfall, leading to overall holiday season results that, in many cases, matched or even exceeded 2023’s performance.
Looking ahead, 2025 once again brings a compressed “core” shopping window. And with shipping disruptions still influenced by shifting tariff regulations, more consumers may turn to brick-and-mortar stores earlier in the season to ensure timely purchases – further supporting offline traffic.
If retailers and advertisers double down on early-season engagement while continuing to drive momentum through the “core” weeks, YoY traffic for the 2025 holiday season could deliver even bigger overall gains than those seen in 2024.
> Last year, early holiday promotions helped offset a shorter core holiday season.
> In 2025, retail and advertising professionals are again faced with a relatively short core shopping season. And aware of the condensed timeline and shipping disruptions, more shoppers may opt for early in-store purchases to avoid the risk of delayed deliveries.
This holiday season will reward advertisers and retailers who recognize the growing retail divide and tailor their messaging to the shoppers most likely to visit during the holidays – whether married homeowners on the hunt for electronics or affluent suburban families seeking beauty products. As in 2024, acting early to offset a shorter core shopping period will be essential to capturing demand. And those who combine sharp timing with audience insight will be best positioned to turn a complex season into a strong finish.
