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At a time when much of the retail industry looks and feels the same, many retailers are working to cement their brand identity and individuality with consumers, which can help set them apart from their competitors. Finding a competitive advantage can be hard to come by in 2025, as consumers hunt for value wherever they can find it and loyalty to any individual chain is low. This challenge is especially true in the apparel category, where assortments across retail banners have become more similar over time and retailers rely on the same trend forecasting, leading to a lack of newness in the market for shoppers.
One option to freshen up merchandising and offer something unique to potential visitors is through category expansion. Creating more opportunities for consumers to engage with different types of products in a single location could improve visit frequency and overall customer satisfaction, and allow the brand's ethos to expand beyond its traditional borders. Gap Inc. recently announced a new initiative in line with this theory; Both Gap & Old Navy will launch beauty lines in 2026 and 2025 respectively. Old Navy is also slated to launch a true collection of handbags.
Accessories and beauty are natural product expansion categories for retailers that specialize in fashion; for other apparel brands such as J.Crew, Madewell and French label Sézane, accessories have helped to bolster their business and deepen their relationships with shoppers. Luxury apparel and accessory brands have long intertwined their labels with beauty as well, which has helped to spark the prestige beauty industry. In examining the potential opportunity for both retailers and the expanded categories through the lens of retail visits, it’s clear that the mainstream apparel brands can benefit from creating more opportunities for consumers to engage with different products.
Gap Inc.’s planned launch of beauty lines at both Old Navy and Gap tap into the excitement generated by the beauty industry since the pandemic. Recently, the beauty space has faced more headwinds, with increased market saturation and changing consumer behavior softening demand for the category.
But beauty still has a lot of potential momentum ahead, with consumers' continued focus on health, wellness and appearance as well as the rising demand for more affordable indulgences and luxuries in the face of a challenging consumer environment. And while traffic to beauty and self care retail has remained relatively flat in 2025 so far compared to 2024, the industry is still lapping exceptionally strong gains from the past few years.
Gap Inc. has a strong opportunity to bring a fresh perspective to the beauty category. A significant share of Gap and Old Navy shoppers also frequent Ulta, with Old Navy showing the higher overlap (42.2% of Old Navy visitors also visited Ulta between January and August 2025, compared to 38.1% of Gap visitors) – likely one reason the beauty line will debut there first. The audience crossover between Gap Inc.'s leading banners and Ulta highlights clear demand for beauty among Gap Inc.'s customer base and opens the door for the company's apparel brands to capture a portion of that spend over time.
Importantly, both Ulta and Sephora have leaned into expanding their private-label offerings, reflecting consumers’ growing comfort with trying beauty products outside of traditional beauty brands. That shift suggests shoppers may also be willing to embrace beauty lines from retailers like Gap and Old Navy, giving Gap Inc. a more favorable entry point into the category.
Gap Inc.’s most recent release about the project mentioned adding beauty consultants to the Old Navy stores during this fall’s rollout of the category. Dedicated product knowledge and expertise is incredibly important in the beauty space, and visitors tend to stay longer to browse and learn. If Old Navy could capture even a few extra minutes of shoppers’ attention, conversion and dwell times could rise during the remainder of 2025.
Similar to the brands’ expansion into beauty, a new push into the accessories category might just be what Gap Inc. needs to further cement itself as a steward of American fashion. Accessories, including handbags, have had a challenging few years in the post-pandemic period. The category has become more fragmented, and consumers have shown an inclination for fewer logos and branded products. And, the Gap brand has already tested the strategy earlier this year with its collaboration with travel brand Beis.
Old Navy is the first brand to release a robust handbag offering, under the creative direction of Zac Posen – and there is evidence to suggest that handbags might be a great new expansion for the brand. Looking at Old Navy and Gap's visitor habits shows that there are high levels of cross-visitation with off-price retailers, including T.J.Maxx, Marshall’s and Ross Dress For Less.
The off-price channel has had the benefit of being able to curate an assortment of designer and branded handbags at value-driven price points, which has made it more difficult for other retailers to compete. Old Navy focusing on creating products that are value-driven but also fashion forward might prove them to be a worthy adversary in the value apparel space.
But the data also highlights that Gap may hold an even stronger opportunity in accessories.. The chain hasn’t launched its renewed accessories program, but the company recently announced hires hailing from leading accessories giants that certainly can help the brand shape its handbag identity. For consumers who are focused on trend-right styles at a more accessible price point, Gap may be able to find its footing, especially against the backdrop of economic headwinds for many American consumers.
Shoppers may also be looking for alternatives to luxury accessory brands over the next few years – especially those consumers who are considered more aspirational, or only purchase luxury goods occasionally due to their levels of discretionary spending. Foot traffic to luxury apparel and accessories brands shows a slowdown in luxury apparel's offline growth throughout 2025, and insights show that the visits are becoming more consolidated around wealthier shoppers.
Gap Inc.’s expansion into beauty and accessories can help the company drive differentiation in a retail environment where sameness dominates. By entering categories that naturally complement fashion, Gap Inc. has an opportunity to extend its brand identity beyond apparel, deepen customer engagement, and capture wallet share from both loyal shoppers and those trading down from luxury.
Success will hinge on execution: delivering value-driven yet fashion-forward products, ensuring knowledgeable in-store experiences, and crafting compelling brand storytelling. If Gap Inc. can leverage these new categories effectively, its beauty and accessories strategy could not only boost near-term traffic and sales but also lay the foundation for sustainable long-term growth in a highly competitive market.
Shifts away from designer handbags, both in the luxury and mid-tier segments, may create the perfect opportunity for Gap to stake its claim. The industry is still lacking affordable, fashion driven accessories that can appeal to a wide array of consumers. If the merchandising and brand storytelling can create a compelling reason to buy for shoppers, the brand might be able to extend the reinvention that has been working for the retailer throughout 2025.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
At the height of the pandemic, many wondered whether beauty (retailers like Ulta and Bath & Body Works) and fitness (i.e. gyms and health clubs) foot traffic would ever recover from the many months of home workouts and social distancing. Several years on, however, visits to these retail spaces have not only rebounded, but well-surpassed pre-pandemic levels. We dove into the data for the Beauty and Fitness spaces to find out how consumer behavior has changed and what might be contributing to these categories’ sustained foot traffic growth.
The graph below shows that visits to the Beauty & Self Care and Fitness spaces followed a consistently upward trajectory between 2021 and 2024, but their paths are now beginning to diverge.
Beauty – which expanded its offline footprint more rapidly compared to fitness between 2021 and 2024 – now appears to be plateauing. Ulta, one of the major beneficiaries of the post-pandemic beauty boom, recently raised its full-year guidance, while still expressing caution around global trade uncertainty and noting deceleration in higher priced fragrance and cosmetics. Some executives also report value-conscious shoppers as becoming more selective in their spending instead of chasing every new beauty trend. As a result, even though the sector remains well above pre-pandemic levels, rising consumer caution is putting the brakes on further gains – at least for now.
Meanwhile, fitness traffic continues to grow consistently year over year, perhaps aided by increasingly health-conscious Gen Z and millennial consumers. Although fitness' gains over the pre-pandemic baseline are not as large as those seen in beauty, the category’s steady momentum reflects an increasing consumer focus on wellness and signals substantial potential for future growth.
One factor behind the rise in fitness visits is likely that gymgoers are working out more frequently.
The share of visitors going to the gym around once a week (four times a month or more) increased between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025. Even more impressive is the increased visit frequency at the start of the year, a traditionally strong period for fitness traffic.
Fitness chains typically see a surge in visits at the start of the year as gym visitors – both new sign-ups and existing members – renew their commitment to healthy lifestyles as part of their New Year’s resolutions.
And the data suggests that gym-goers hit the gym more frequently during this period, as well. Close examination of the shaded area in the graph below shows that the share of gym-goers that went at least four times a month (about once a week) during the months Q1 2025 has increased compared to Q1 2024. And the most recent data reveals that frequency has remained higher this year compared to 2024 throughout the summer as well, indicating that visitor frequency is continuing to grow more robust.
In a period of economic uncertainty, gym-goers are getting more value out of their memberships than in the past, and seem to be more likely to join, and remain members, throughout the year.
Even as visits to the beauty space surged since 2019, the length of the average visit has decreased, highlighting the evolving but still critical role of physical stores.
Analysis of average visit duration for three leading chains – Ulta, Bath & Body Works, and Sally Beauty Supply – shows that the average visit length dropped across all three chains between H1 2019 and H1 2024. This trend may reflect the growing influence of social commerce in product discovery and digital sales, reducing the need for extended in-store browsing.
Yet, physical stores remain a powerful driver of engagement: many consumers still seek immersive experiences and want to try and buy products in-person. Retailers are enhancing the appeal of in-store shopping through cutting-edge beauty tech that connect digital discovery with physical retail spaces. Notably, between H1 2024 and H1 2025, the analyzed brands experienced a modest rebound in visit length – further evidence that physical stores continue to serve as vital tools for consumer engagement.
Foot traffic to both the beauty and fitness spaces has surpassed pre-pandemic levels. However, value-consciousness is currently putting pressure on beauty retail while health-consciousness is aiding fitness gains. Still, the future looks bright for both categories, in which physical spaces are taking on a new role in engaging consumers.
Want more data-driven retail insights? Visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
As consumer spending continues to bifurcate, mid-tier chains face headwinds while off-price and luxury apparel gain ground. Which of the two apparel segments has the greatest growth potential? We dove into the data to find out.
Off-price has led apparel growth in recent years, and continuing economic uncertainty is helping the segment build on that momentum and continue its upward trajectory in 2025. But the luxury apparel segment – which underperformed the wider apparel category for much of 2024 – has also been on the rise lately, as shown in the chart below.
So far in 2025, foot traffic to luxury chains and department stores has increased year-over-year, consistently outpacing the broader apparel category. This trend reflects the increasingly bifurcated retail space: value-oriented chains, including off-price leaders, are winning over budget-conscious shoppers, while premium brands continue to attract affluent customers who remain less sensitive to economic headwinds.
Still, the data also shows that off-price chains continue to show significantly stronger traffic growth, while luxury visits have recently stabilized – traffic between June and August 2025 was roughly flat YoY. This contrast underscores the greater growth potential of value-oriented retailers in the current environment, with middle-income shoppers far more likely to trade down into off-price than to stretch into luxury. So although affluent spending appears to be holding steady, luxury’s room for further expansion may be limited.
Luxury may be more visible than ever, with social media fueling brand awareness. Pandemic-era stimulus checks may also have briefly given middle-income shoppers an opportunity to splurge on coveted labels. But beneath the surface, the data suggests that the audience is actually narrowing, with luxury chains drawing more heavily from affluent areas – even as brands try to broaden their lines and bring prestige to the masses.
Between 2022 and 2025, the median HHI for luxury shoppers climbed from $115K to nearly $118K, while the medians for traditional and off-price apparel shoppers held steady.
This suggests that, as prices rise, luxury increasingly depends on the nation’s wealthiest households, while off-price, with its median HHI of $75K (closely aligned with the national average of $79.6K according to PopStats 2024 data), continues to draw a broad shopper base. Off-price’s income profile may even be buoyed by wealthier shoppers trading down, while mid-range apparel chains feel the pressure of more cost-conscious behavior.
As 2025 progresses, apparel’s bifurcation is likely to deepen, with off-price chains positioned to capture continued traffic gains from value-driven shoppers and even affluent consumers trading down. Luxury is likely to remain resilient among high-income households, but its reliance on a narrowing customer base may limit growth, leaving value-oriented retailers better positioned to capitalize on shifting consumer dynamics in the months ahead.
To see up-to-date retail traffic trends, visit our free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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The arts and crafts sector is undergoing a major shakeup. Party City shuttered all corporate-owned stores early in the year after filing for bankruptcy, and by May, JOANN had closed its doors as well. But what could have been a moment of contraction for the largely discretionary category has instead accelerated growth for its strongest players. The industry is consolidating around two leaders – Hobby Lobby and Michaels.
What explains the continued strength of these two banners? And how are they positioning themselves to capture share in a reshaped retail landscape? We dove into the data to find out.
Despite its discretionary nature, crafting is flourishing in 2025. Screen-fatigued consumers are embracing hands-on, mindful projects like knitting, embroidery, and DIY décor as creative outlets and stress relievers. At the same time, crafting serves a practical role, producing inexpensive gifts and home decorations that help households stretch budgets while delivering creative satisfaction.
And Hobby Lobby and Michaels are making the most of this opportunity. Since April 2025, both chains have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, expanding their footprints while also driving more visits to existing locations. And with JOANN and Party City out of the picture, both retailers appear poised to capture displaced demand and further cement their leadership.
Each retailer is following a different path to success.
Michaels has leaned aggressively into the category's realignment. The company acquired JOANN's intellectual property and private-label brands to broaden its assortment and has moved quickly into Party City's vacated territory with an expanded lineup of balloons and party goods. Michaels is also doubling down on in-store experiences like birthday parties and leaning even more heavily into seasonal products – including for Halloween, Party City’s traditional stronghold.
This latter move could prove especially powerful during the upcoming spooky season. Halloween was historically Party City’s busiest period of the year, with October 2024 visits surging nearly 95% above the chain’s monthly average. With Party City gone – and Michaels already rolling out its “Summerween” offerings – the retailer looks well-positioned to capture some of that seasonal momentum and emerge as one of Halloween’s new retail destinations.
Hobby Lobby, by contrast, has stuck to its proven strategy of steadily expanding a nationwide fleet of large-format stores with broad, affordable selections. And this approach continues to pay dividends.
Though Hobby Lobby doesn’t really do Halloween, it carries plenty of seasonal decorations – which have traditionally driven substantial holiday visit boosts from November (see graph above). Hobby Lobby’s immersive environment also encourages extended browsing sessions, leading to longer visits. Between May and July of this year, shoppers averaged 31.4 minutes per trip to Hobby Lobby compared to 25.5 minutes at Michaels. The chain also leads in loyalty: Over the same period, 21.5% to 23.3% of visitors shopped at Hobby Lobby at least twice per month, a significant increase from last year.
Far from being sidelined as a discretionary indulgence, crafting has become an outlet for creativity, mindfulness, and affordability – and the shakeout of weaker players has only sharpened the advantage of category leaders. With Michaels pushing boundaries through innovation and seasonal dominance, and Hobby Lobby deepening loyalty through scale and consistency, both banners are positioned to ride the craft retail wave well into the future.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Black Rock Coffee Bar ended its NASDAQ debut in September 2025 at a market valuation of $1.32 billion – a remarkable showing for the relatively young coffee chain.
We took a closer look at the data to see what sets Black Rock apart from its competitors – and what might be fueling its remarkable valuation and early surge in share price.
Black Rock Coffee Bar, which was founded in Oregon and is currently based in Arizona, has been on an impressive growth trajectory– between 2020 and 2025, the chain doubled its unit count, and the company is now targeting 1,000 locations by 2035.
Fueled by its aggressive expansion, Black Rock’s traffic has surged since 2019, with Q2 2025 visits up 226.5% compared to Q3 2019. These trends echo the trajectory of Dutch Bros – another rapidly growing coffee chain founded in Oregon – whose growth path since 2019 closely mirrors Black Rock’s, as shown in the graph below.
Despite their shared origins and similar growth trajectories, the two chains draw distinct audiences. Dutch Bros tends to attract visitors from less affluent neighborhoods, both nationally and within Oregon – due in large part to its typically younger audience – whereas Black Rock Coffee’s customer base skews more affluent than the median in both contexts.
This contrast suggests that the coffee space has ample room for two Oregon-founded chains to scale quickly, as each taps into a distinct segment of the market with complementary growth potential. Dutch Bros can lean into accessibility and mass-market appeal, while Black Rock is positioned to build loyalty with higher-income consumers, potentially supporting premium offerings, differentiated experiences, and stronger long-term margins.
Focusing on recent months shows that – although Black Rock Coffee is maintaining overall positive visit growth – average visits per location have slipped slightly, as seen in the chart below. What does this mean for Black Rock Coffee's future?
Overall traffic is still climbing and new stores are expanding the brand's customer base, so the slowdown appears to be a short-term adjustment rather than a hard ceiling. But the dip in visits per venue may indicate that the chain is beginning to saturate its traditional western and southern markets – signaling that further growth may depend on expansion into new states and DMAs.
Black Rock Coffee's growth is reminiscent of that of Dutch Bros, and demographic differences between their audiences create room for both chains to continue expanding – though Black Rock's softer per-location trends bear watching as it expands. Still, the chain’s affluent customer base provides resilience and supports long-term growth, helping explain Black Rock Coffee's premium valuation and early market enthusiasm.
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
East and South Asian grocery chains continue to perform well, with YoY visits outperforming the broader grocery segment in most cases, as seen in the chart below.
One factor behind the success of specialty grocery chains is their ability to serve as true destinations rather than just another place to pick up groceries, as visitor behavior data suggests that these grocers engage their visitors more deeply than traditional grocery chains.
Shoppers spend more time in these specialty grocery stores (27 to 41 minutes per visit on average compared to 23 minutes at traditional supermarkets). Consumers are also more likely to visit on weekends – the grocery category as a whole receives less than 33% of its visits on weekends, compared to H Mart, 99 Ranch Market, Mitsuwa Marketplace, and Patel Brothers where 39.3% to 42.4% of visits take place over the weekend. Together, these patterns reinforce the positioning of East and South Asian grocers as experiential, destination-driven retailers rather than routine errand stops.
Looking ahead, some chains are working on opening more stores, with H Mart slated to open four new locations in Florida, Texas, and California, while 99 Ranch just opened its first New York City location. These expansions signal continued momentum in both established and new markets.
The success of Southeast and East Asian grocers may highlight a broader consumer shift: shopping trips that feel purposeful, engaging, and even entertaining are increasingly valued in an age where routine purchases can be easily fulfilled online. Traditional grocers looking to tap into this trend may need to rethink their formats, merchandising, and in-store experiences, potentially leaning more into specialty assortments, foodservice options, or community programming. More broadly, for retailers of all types, the success of Asian grocers illustrates the growing importance of creating destination-driven experiences that transform shopping into an outing rather than a chore. Retailers who cultivate environments that invite discovery, linger time, and weekend traffic may find themselves better positioned to capture both customer loyalty and discretionary spending.
For the latest up-to-date grocery trends, check out our free tools.
Physical retail is increasingly defined by a small group of dominant players – Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General – that span grocery, essentials, and discretionary categories at a scale no other retailers can match. These chains serve as bellwethers of consumer behavior, revealing where Americans are spending, how often they shop, and what drives their decisions. And understanding their visitation patterns sheds light on the key dynamics shaping both their performance and the broader blueprint for retail success in 2026.
Retail giants Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General continue to capture a growing share of brick-and-mortar visits nationwide.
• The share of physical retail traffic captured by these giants rose from 16.8% in 2019 to 17.5% in Q1 2026, signaling continued sector consolidation.
• The scale advantage enjoyed by retail giants is increasingly self-reinforcing: Larger players benefit from superior data, stronger vendor leverage, and operational efficiencies that in turn further widen the gap.
• As these advantages compound, direct competition becomes less viable. Instead, smaller retailers should focus on owning specific trip missions – such as convenience, fill-in, or discovery – where format, assortment curation, and in-store experience can more directly shape consumer choice.
• For CRE operators, the growing dominance of these retail giants increases reliance on top-tier anchors, potentially driving performance gaps between centers with strong national tenants and those without.
• For CPG companies, the consolidation in the offline retail space heightens channel concentration, making success with a handful of large retailers critical while increasing those retailers’ negotiating leverage.
Traffic trends across the four giants reveal meaningful divergence in performance.
• Costco and Dollar General are driving the strongest visit growth, supported by both substantial fleet expansions and rising visits per location. In 2025, visits per store exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 18.1% for Costco and 10.2% for Dollar General, with both brands also seeing steady increases in their share of total brick-and-mortar retail chain visits.
• Walmart remains the largest player by far, accounting for 9.7% of traffic to major brick-and-mortar chains in 2025. And though the behemoth’s share of visits declined slightly in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, it has held steady over the past three years.
• Target’s visit share has remained relatively flat over the past three years, reflecting stalled momentum. Still, early 2026 trends point to emerging signs of recovery – with Q1 visits up 8.3% compared to Q1 2019.
• Value retail is winning, but in more specialized forms: Dollar General (extreme value + convenience) and Costco (bulk value + loyalty) are driving the strongest traffic growth and rising visits per store, while Walmart’s broad “everyday value” remains steady with slower growth. Target, for its part, is lagging – likely a reflection of the broader bifurcation in retail which has left middle-market players caught between consumers trading down to value and those trading up to quality.
• For retailers and CPG companies, the broader lesson is that value perception is becoming more nuanced. It’s no longer just about offering low prices at scale, but about how value is delivered – whether through small packs vs. bulk, or quick trips vs. stock-up missions. Success increasingly depends on prioritizing these distinct value formats and investing in channels where store-level productivity is improving.
• For CRE operators, the outperformance of retailers with clearly defined value propositions underscores the importance of mission-driven tenant mix. As shoppers visit with increasingly specific missions in mind, retailers that cater to those missions are outperforming. Tenant strategies should reflect this shift, ensuring complementary offerings that reinforce a cohesive shopping mission.
Walmart remains the dominant brick-and-mortar retailer nationwide and across all fifty states. Still, the data suggests there is room for multiple runners-up to succeed across geographies and customer segments.
• Dollar General, Target, and Costco each attract distinct audience segments. Dollar General attracts a disproportionately high share of the “Mature and Retired Living” segment, while Costco leads among family households, with Target also over-indexing with this group. Among younger “Contemporary Households,” meanwhile – a segment encompassing singles, married couples without children, and non-family households – Target commands the highest share, slightly over-indexing compared to the nationwide baseline.
• Regional strengths vary significantly, with Dollar General concentrated in the South, Costco dominant in the Northwest, and Target showing more dispersed areas of strength.
• Despite similar overall visit share, Dollar General leads in more states (26 vs. 17 for Target), reflecting broader geographic dominance.
• For retailers, the data suggests that growth opportunities are increasingly shaped by localized demographic and geographic dynamics – meaning that targeted, market-specific strategies may be more effective than uniform national approaches.
• Younger “Contemporary Households” remain less locked-in than older demographics, representing a key battleground for future growth.
• For CPG companies, this data highlights that channel strategy is really about building the right mix of retailers, since even large national players reach different types of consumers.
• CRE operators should ask "which anchor is right for this trade area" rather than "which anchor is strongest," as mismatched tenants can underperform even if they’re nationally dominant.
After remaining essentially flat in 2025, average visits per location to Walmart grew 3.5% YoY in Q1 2026. And the retailer’s solid Q1 performance across the U.S. underscores its unique ability to resonate across income levels, geographies, and shopping missions.
• Walmart posted year-over-year visit growth across nearly all U.S. markets in Q1 2026, reinforcing its role as a universally relevant retailer.
• The giant’s comparative softness in small parts of the Northeast suggests an opportunity to double down on region-specific assortments, urban-friendly formats, or partnerships to better match local shopping behaviors.
• Walmart’s broad-based growth shows that even as consumers are increasingly willing to visit multiple retailers to get what they want, its Superstore model has solidified its role as a primary stop on the American shopping journey – making it a uniquely reliable anchor for CRE operators.
• For smaller retailers, this underscores the opportunity to win the “second stop” – capturing trips through curated assortments and more tailored in-store experiences that Walmart’s scale is less optimized to deliver.
• For CPG companies, Walmart stands out as a highly attractive partner for broad, efficient reach, given its consistent traffic across markets.
Target’s recent performance suggests early momentum in reversing prior softness.
• Q1 2026 visits to Target rose 5.1% year over year, marking the chain’s first positive visit growth in more than a year, and suggesting that the chain’s new turnaround strategy may be bearing fruit.
• Gains were driven primarily by visits lasting 30 to 45 minutes, which accounted for 19.6% of overall visits to Target in Q1 2026 – pointing to stronger in-store engagement rather than quick, mission-driven stops.
• Target’s return to traffic growth – driven by increases in mid-length trips – signals a sustainable recovery on the horizon, strengthening its reliability as a traffic-driving tenant for CRE operators.
• Target's turnaround shows retailers how increasing shopper engagement can generate growth by converting quick trips into higher-value, multi-category experiences.
• For CPG companies, the rise in mid-length visits indicates a more receptive in-store environment for discovery and trade-up, making Target an increasingly attractive channel for innovation, merchandising, and premium offerings.
Dollar General is becoming embedded in consumers’ daily routines.
• Visitor frequency to Dollar General is on the rise. In Q1 2026, nearly a quarter of visitors frequented the chain at least four times in an average month, up from 21.2% in Q1 2022.
• Dollar General is becoming increasingly local in nature: As its footprint expands, more visits originate nearby, with 28.0% coming from within one mile – reinforcing its role as a neighborhood store of choice.
• Dollar General’s visitation patterns point to a growing ownership of the convenience mission. Its expanding store density is creating a self-reinforcing network effect, where proximity fuels frequency, and frequency strengthens long-term defensibility.
• For retailers, Dollar General’s rising share of nearby and high-frequency visits shows that proximity can drive habit, making convenience a powerful lever for building repeat behavior.
• For CRE operators, the data highlights the strength of hyper-local, necessity-driven traffic, positioning Dollar General as a stable tenant that anchors consistent, repeat visitation.
• For CPG professionals, the increase in frequent trips signals a high-velocity purchase environment, favoring smaller pack sizes and products that align with regular replenishment cycles.
Costco continues to grow and diversify its audience despite higher membership fees and stricter food court access policies, highlighting the strength of its value proposition and loyalty model.
• In September 2024, Costco raised its membership fees for the first time in seven years – and more recently tightened enforcement of member-only access to its food courts. Despite these changes, visitation has remained strong, highlighting the company’s pricing power and deep customer loyalty.
• At the same time, Costco’s shopper base is broadening, with median household income trending slightly downward while remaining relatively affluent.
• Offering strong value to a relatively affluent consumer base can be a winning formula in 2026. Retailers that combine quality, trust, and perceived savings – rather than competing solely on low prices – are well positioned to drive both loyalty and sustained traffic growth.
• For CRE operators, Costco’s sustained traffic growth and broadening shopper base reinforce its value as a standalone, high-demand traffic magnet that can anchor entire trade areas and drive surrounding retail development.
• For CPG companies, the combination of high traffic and declining median HHI signals that Costco is evolving into a scaled channel reaching beyond affluent shoppers, requiring more diversified assortment and pricing strategies.
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It’s been decades since the U.S. last hosted the World Cup, and anticipation continues to build. While the matches themselves will deliver thrilling moments for fans inside the stadium, a far broader audience is expected to engage from beyond the gates – gathering at bars, watch parties, and living rooms across the country.
Drawing on insights from recent sporting and cultural events, this analysis examines how the World Cup may impact consumer behavior and audiences across stadiums, host cities, and nationwide.
In 2025, MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ hosted a wide range of concerts and sporting events. And an examination of three – Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s tour stop, the FIFA Club World Cup Final, and a Week 17 New York Jets matchup against division rivals and the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots – reveals clear differences in audience composition across event types.
Trade area analysis showed that the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Final drew the largest share of single visitors and the highest median household income (HHI) of the three events – a pattern that could reflect the premium tickets and travel typically associated with a quadrennial championship match.
With the 2026 World Cup elevating the level of global competition, stadiums set to host matches this summer – including MetLife – may see even more dramatic shifts in their audience relative to other events.
While spectators attending World Cup matches are likely to differ from those drawn to other events throughout the year, audience shifts are likely to occur also within the tournament itself. As the competition progresses and the stakes rise, the visitor profile at host stadiums may trend progressively higher-income, as suggested by an analysis of Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA during the recent NFL season and Super Bowl.
During the Super Bowl, the stadium’s captured market median HHI surpassed that of every 49ers home game during the 2025-26 season – a pattern consistent with the event’s premium ticket pricing, national draw, and high levels of out-of-market travel.
And since the World Cup only takes place every four years, and necessitates international travel for die-hard fans, attendees are likely to be even more affluent than Super Bowl go-ers. Moreover, as the tournament reaches its later stages, each match becomes more significant and carries the potential to drive an even more affluent in-person audience.
Diving deeper into last year’s FIFA Club World Cup Final and Semifinal matches at MetLife Stadium provides further insight into the significance of the in-person audience that doesn’t make it into the stands. While FIFA generally places restrictions on tailgating, the behavior was still observed at MetLife and several other tournament venues in 2025. To put the phenomenon into perspective, location intelligence indicates that on the day of the Club World Cup final, combined visits to MetLife and its parking lots were 24.8% higher than visits to the stadium alone.
AI-powered trade area analysis further contextualizes the economic significance of this audience. During the semifinal matches, MetLife Stadium’s captured market median HHI remained nearly identical – just over $100K – with and without parking lot visitors. A similar pattern held for the Final, where median HHI for both the stadium-only and combined stadium-plus-parking visitors both rose above $115K, with the stadium-only figure only marginally higher.
This suggests that tailgaters represent a significant cohort with discretionary income to spend on the broader match-day experience, even if they opt out of spending big money on tickets.
With tailgating during the 2026 World Cup likely to remain limited due to FIFA regulations, the spending power of fans just outside the stadiums could create opportunities for alternative forms of engagement. Fan zones and other nearby hospitality events may offer effective ways to capture demand.
Nearby dining and entertainment venues are among the most accessible experiences for fans in the stadium area, and these stand to benefit significantly from elevated game-day foot traffic.
Analysis of recent FIFA Club World Cup matches reveals the impact of match-day activity on local businesses. Visitor journey data from the June 25th, 2025 matchup between Inter Milan and River Plate at Seattle’s Lumen Field, and the June 28th, 2025 meeting between Palmeiras and Botafogo at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia reveals that a significant share of stadium visitors also stopped at nearby dining and recreation venues on the day. Location intelligence also shows that, on the day of the match, each stadium-adjacent venue received a significant visit boost compared to its 2025 daily average.
This pattern underscores the potential impact of the World Cup on the surrounding commercial ecosystem. The stadium may anchor the experience, but fan engagement will likely spill into adjacent areas – creating opportunities for both organizers and local businesses. To take full advantage, restaurants and bars can position themselves as fan-friendly destinations through watch parties, extended hours, and even mobile or outdoor offerings in stadium corridors.
Previous major sporting events – including the Super Bowl – demonstrate that the impact of large-scale sporting moments often extends beyond the immediate stadium vicinity into the broader regional economy.
In the weeks leading up to the latest Super Bowl in Santa Clara, CA on February 8th, 2026, both the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkley and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CBSAs saw a notable uptick in year-over-year dining traffic – outperforming the nationwide average. The timing suggests that early-arriving travellers combined with locals enjoying pre-event concerts and events helped fuel demand. In contrast, nationwide dining traffic saw a more pronounced lift the following week – likely tied to Valentine’s Day on February 14.
This pattern indicates that regions hosting – or located near – World Cup 2026 matches could experience similar pre-event dining tailwinds. As out-of-town visitors arrive and local engagement builds in the days and weeks leading up to key matches, restaurants and hospitality may benefit from elevated demand – particularly when supported by ancillary events and fan experiences.
Other recent examples suggest that cities hosting major events like the World Cup stand to benefit from an influx of out-of-town visitors – particularly those with higher spending power.
Since the beginning of 2025, New Orleans has hosted a series of popular events that drove significant non-local traffic. AI-powered trade area data indicates that during these periods, out-of-market visitors consistently exhibited a higher median HHI than both local residents and typical commuters into the city.
As expected, the 2025 Super Bowl generated the most pronounced spike in out-of-market visitor median HHI among the events analyzed, but the pattern extends beyond one-time spectacles. Recurring events like Mardi Gras and major music festivals also attracted high-income visitors to the city – likely benefitting the local hospitality, dining, and retail industries.
Looking ahead to the 2026 World Cup, host cities are likely to experience a similar dynamic. The tournament’s global draw will likely bring affluent travelers with discretionary dollars to the host regions – visitors that will spend not only on match tickets, but also on accommodation, dining, and shopping. By sponsoring tournament-related festivals, concerts, and experiences in or near retail corridors, cities can amplify the economic impact of the World Cup beyond the stadium.
The impact of the 2026 World Cup is unlikely to be confined to the select cities hosting matches. Major sporting events drive large-scale at-home viewership, generating ripple effects nationwide.
The Super Bowl offers a useful benchmark. In the days leading up to February 8th, 2026, visits to grocery stores and pizza chains rose above day-of-week averages for 2025, ultimately peaking on the day of the big game day as households appeared to pick up last-minute fixings and takeout for their watch parties.
This pattern indicates that the World Cup – with its extended schedule and multiple high-stakes matchups – could drive repeated waves of elevated grocery and take-out demand as fans gather together throughout the tournament.
Of course, at-home viewing is just one piece of the match-day equation. Many fans opt for a more communal experience – gathering at sports bars across the country to watch the game alongside fellow supporters.
Recent highly-anticipated soccer matches offer a clear signal of this behavior. During the recent Allstate Continental Clásico, MLS Cup Final, and SheBelieves Cup Final, top sports bars in key markets like Los Angeles and Miami recorded visit spikes above day-of-week averages.
Not every World Cup fan will be able to attend in-person or travel to a host city, but previous match-day lifts in sports bar traffic demonstrate that fans nationwide will participate in the tournament experience.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to engage a wide spectrum of fans – from casual viewers at home to dedicated supporters traveling to stadiums – shaping how and where demand emerges.
As a result, the tournament’s impact will be felt across multiple layers of retail, dining, and tourism. Stadium-centered spending, activity in surrounding corridors, host-city consumer demand, and gatherings of spectators nationwide all point to a broad and interconnected World Cup effect that is likely to shape both audience composition and behavior at scale.
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Indoor malls and open-air centers have posted consistent YoY visit growth, outlet declines have been modest, and early 2026 data shows renewed momentum across all three formats.
Growth in short visits and extended stays – alongside declines in mid-length trips – shows that consumers are gravitating toward trips with a clear purpose, favoring either efficiency or immersion.
Rising dwell times and strong engagement from younger, contemporary households position indoor malls as leading destinations for longer, experience-driven trips.
A higher share of short, weekday visits – along with strong appeal among affluent families – underscores their role as convenient, essential retail hubs.
As off-price and online alternatives erode their treasure-hunt advantage and long-distance visitation softens, outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal.
The malls that thrive will be those that intentionally optimize for convenience, experience, or a disciplined integration of both.
Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the “dead mall” narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving.
What can location analytics tell us about the state of the mall in 2026? Which trends and audiences are driving their performance – and how can operators and retailers best capitalize on the opportunities within the category?
Over the past two years, both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth. And while outlet malls experienced slight declines, the pullback was modest – signaling a period of stability rather than erosion.
Early 2026 data also points to continued momentum, with all three mall formats recording mid-single-digit YoY traffic gains in the first two months of the year. Although it’s still early days – and YoY comparisons in 2026 were boosted by an additional Saturday – the positive start suggests that the industry is entering the year on a solid footing.
With e-commerce always within reach, hybrid work anchoring more consumers at home, and ongoing economic uncertainty influencing spending decisions, trips to physical stores are becoming more intentional. Shopping center visit data reflects this shift as well, with growth in both quick convenience visits and extended experiential outings – alongside a decline in mid-length trips.
In 2025, quick trips (under 30 minutes) increased across all formats, underscoring malls’ growing role as convenient, high-utility destinations for picking up an online order, grabbing a quick bite, or making a targeted purchase. At the same time, extended visits of more than 75 minutes increased at indoor malls and open-air centers, reflecting sustained appetite for immersive, experiential outings.
Meanwhile, mid-length visits (between 30 and 75 minutes) lagged across formats – falling indoor malls and outlet malls and remaining flat at open-air centers – suggesting shoppers are losing patience with undifferentiated trips that lack a clear purpose.
Still, although short visits increased year over year across all mall types, and long visits increased for both indoor malls and open-air centers, the distribution of dwell time varies by format. Short visits make up a larger share of traffic at open-air shopping centers, for example, while longer visits account for a greater share at indoor malls. This divergence underscores the need for format-specific strategies, with operators clearly defining the core shoppers and missions they are best suited to serve and aligning tenant mix, amenities, and marketing accordingly.
Indoor malls, for instance, have increasingly positioned themselves as experiential hubs – particularly for younger consumers. Recent survey data shows that 57% of shoppers aged 18 to 34 report visiting a mall frequently or often, and they are more likely than older cohorts to arrive without a specific purchase in mind.
Foot traffic patterns reinforce this experiential appeal. In 2025, 37.6% of indoor mall visits lasted more than 75 minutes, compared to 33.4% for open-air centers and 34.6% for outlets. Indoor malls also captured the largest share of visits from the young-skewing “contemporary households” segment – singles, non-family households, and young couples without children – indicating strong resonance with younger audiences.
As indoor malls expand their experiential offerings, visit durations are rising even further – even as they hold steady or even slightly decline at other formats. For operators, this shift highlights a significant opportunity for indoor malls to deepen their role as climate-controlled third places. And for brands, it means high-impact access to Gen Z consumers in discovery mode – top-of-funnel engagement that is increasingly difficult and expensive to replicate through digital channels alone.
If indoor malls excel at capturing extended, social visits, open-air centers are finding success through convenience. In 2025, open-air centers had the highest shares of both weekday visits (64.0%) and short, sub-30 minutes (36.8%) among the three formats. Grocery anchors, superstores, and essential-service tenants like gyms – more common at open-air centers than at other formats – help drive steady, non-discretionary traffic.
Demographically, open-air centers drew the highest share of affluent families, a key demographic for daily errands. This alignment with higher-income households, combined with weekday consistency, positions open-air centers as reliable errand hubs embedded in community life.
Outlet malls, for their part, have historically differentiated themselves by offering something shoppers couldn’t find elsewhere: an experiential treasure hunt featuring brand-name merchandise at compelling prices. But the decline in long visits shown above suggests that this positioning may be coming under pressure – likely from the rise of off-price and discount chains as well as other low-cost, convenient treasure-hunt alternatives like thrift stores. When shoppers can score attractive deals online or browse for bargains at a nearby T.J. Maxx or Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, the incentive to dedicate time and travel to an outlet trip may no longer feel as compelling – especially for outlet malls’ core audience, which includes meaningful contingents of middle and lower-income consumers with families.
And data points to a subtle but steady erosion in the share of visitors willing to go the extra mile to visit outlet malls. Since 2023, the share of outlet visits from consumers traveling more than 30 miles has slipped from 33.1% to 31.8%, even as long-distance visits to other mall formats have remained relatively stable. This softening of destination demand may be contributing to outlets’ recent traffic lags.
Still, despite these lags in foot traffic, major outlet companies continue to see YoY increases in same-center tenant sales per square foot. The format’s strong visit start to 2026 also suggests that outlets still have significant draw – and that with the right strategy, they could reinvigorate their traffic trends.
One option is for outlet malls to lean further into their immediate trade areas: Nearly 20% of visits to outlets already originate within five miles – a share that edged up from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.9% in 2025. These closer shoppers may be largely responsible for the segment’s rise in short visits, pointing to an opportunity to further augment BOPIS offerings and select essential-use tenants.
Another option is to strengthen outlets’ destination appeal with distinctive retail, dining, and experiential offerings that resonate with value-oriented, larger-household shoppers. But whether they focus on convenience or on justifying the journey – or attempt to balance both – success will depend on identifying who their shoppers are and which missions they are best positioned to own.
As in other areas of retail, shopping center success increasingly depends on strategic clarity. The malls that thrive will be those that clearly define their role in their customers’ lives and execute against it with intention – whether by decisively optimizing for efficiency, fully investing in experience, or thoughtfully integrating both.
