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Darden recently announced that it was considering ceasing operations for one of its chains, Bahama Breeze, following the closure of 15 of its 43 locations in May 2025.
Visit data for the brand highlights the struggles the Caribbean-inspired chain has faced in recent years. Year-over-year (YoY) visits were down in every year analyzed, and monthly visits declined in all but three of the past 12 months. The chain appeared particularly hard-hit starting in 2025, which may have been a consideration in Darden's decision to shutter Bahama Breeze locations.
Whether Darden plans to keep the remaining 28 Bahama Breeze restaurants operational or opt for a full sale remains to be seen, but the recent foot traffic challenges facing the brand position it for a strategic pivot – or more drastic measures.
As the U.S. economy moves to the midpoint of 2025, a divergent macro picture is starting to take hold. While consumers are showing renewed confidence and returning to stores (or at the very least, responding to heightened promotional activity across many retail categories), the industrial backbone of the economy – manufacturing and shipping – is tapping the brakes. This split narrative suggests that while immediate consumer sentiment has improved as tariff-related news has taken a backseat, industrial signals may be painting a more cautious picture.
The retail sector has seen a welcome rebound in May and June, following a sluggish start to the year when macroeconomic uncertainty and significant tariff-related news dampened spirits and hurt foot traffic in February and March. Year-over-year visitation data for the Placer 100 index – a composite of 100 of the largest retail and restaurant chains in the U.S. – indicates that shoppers have likely grown accustomed to the economic climate and are demonstrating more consistent and normal behaviors.
With the initial shock of potential price hikes having passed, consumers appear to be moving past the cautious approach that marked the first quarter, leading to stabilized and improving year-over-year visit trends across many retail categories.
Admittedly, there are multiple factors driving the recent increases in year-over-year retail traffic. Consumers remain squarely focused on value, which continues to drive outperformance for value grocers, warehouse clubs, and dollar stores (which also appear to be benefiting from less competition from Temu and Shein amid new regulatory restrictions). Off-price retailers continue to be one of the strongest performing categories year-to-date, capitalizing on increased inventory opportunities stemming from recent store closures and tariff-related supply chain disruptions, allowing them to fuel their "treasure hunt" model. Finally, traditional department stores have also contributed to the rebound through strong reception to events like Nordstrom’s Half-Yearly Sale and other promotional activity.
While retail visits have normalized in recent weeks, a different story is unfolding across U.S. factories and ports. Following a production surge in late March and April – when manufacturers ramped up activity to build inventory ahead of tariff deadlines – both manufacturing and port activity have seen a notable decline in May and into June.
Placer’s Industrial Manufacturing composite indicates that activity at manufacturing facilities – representing visits for both facility employees (estimated based on dwell time) and visitors, who often represent logistics partners – slowed in May and June.
Looking at manufacturing visit data by category, many U.S. factories took a breather in May, with our data showing a widespread slowdown in visits. The auto and auto parts industry has been hit particularly hard, feeling the direct impact of international tariffs. But this isn't just a car story – most other manufacturing sectors also pumped the brakes, signaling that many companies are cautiously getting ready for what could be an unpredictable second half of the year.
Slowing new orders and decreasing container volumes at major ports suggest that businesses, having already front-loaded their inventory, are now taking a more cautious look toward the second half of 2025. Many appear hesitant to over-commit amidst an unpredictable trade policy landscape.
Our visitation data for some of the busiest ports in the U.S. generally shows a strong correlation with the Bureau of Transportation's container import and export statistics. While our data indicated increased activity at several Eastern ports ahead of initial tariff implementation dates in early April, we have since observed visitation trends declining through much of April and May. The one notable exception is the Port of Houston – where gasoline imports are often received – which saw a spike in activity in May that has continued through June.
The two-track U.S. economy at the mid-point of 2025 highlights a clear divergence between consumer behavior and industrial strategy. While shoppers have returned to stores, driven by a hunt for value and successful promotions, the industrial sector is sending more cautious signals. The slowdown in activity at manufacturing facilities and ports suggests that businesses, having already front-loaded inventory ahead of tariffs, are now bracing for potential volatility. This sets up a classic economic tug-of-war for the second half of the year, leaving a critical question: Will resilient consumer spending eventually pull the industrial sector back into a growth cycle, or will the manufacturing slowdown ultimately impact supply chains, shelf availability, and the recent retail rebound?
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Grab-and-go dining is thriving. Recent data indicates that nearly three out of four restaurant orders are taken to go. This trend is a particularly beneficial one for the limited-service dining category, which encompasses quick-service, fast-casual, and coffee chains.
We took a look at the visit data for these three subcategories of the limited-service dining world to understand how consumer behavior varies by dining type.
In a period marked by economic concerns, diners seeking convenient and budget-friendly choices often turn to limited-service options. And in recent months, coffee emerged as the strongest segment within the limited-service category, followed by fast-casual restaurants. Visits to both segments were up every month except February, when YoY foot traffic dropped due to inclement weather and a leap year comparison. Meanwhile, QSR saw essentially flat YoY visitation trends since March 2025.
This visit performance highlights shifts in dining preferences across visitors to the three segments. Coffee’s status as an affordable indulgence may be one factor driving traffic to the category. And with consumers becoming more discerning about their disposable income, fast-casual restaurants appear to be benefiting from the quality and perceived value that many such chains offer.
Diving deeper into the data suggests that short visits (less than 10 minutes) drove much of the growth in the coffee and fast-casual segments during the first five months of 2025, with YoY trends for short visits consistently outperforming YoY trends for longer (10+ minutes) visits.
The overall coffee segment continues to impress with elevated visits, though a closer look reveals significant variances within the category.
Specifically, mid-sized and small coffee chains are thriving. These chains – including brands like Dutch Bros and Black Rock Coffee Bar experienced YoY visit growth of 7.3% and 7.1%, respectively, largely due to chain expansions. In contrast, large coffee chains – a sub-category that includes major players like Starbucks and Dunkin’ – saw visits dip by 4.5% YoY.
And small coffee chains were the only segment to experience a slight YoY uptick in average visits per location – indicating that even as the segment expanded its footprint, existing locations, on average, continued to see modest visit growth. This trend may be partially attributed to the relative affluence of these chains’ visitors, who tended to come from trade areas with more high-income consumers (>$100K) than those frequenting mid-sized and large coffee chains.
Within the fast-casual and quick-service dining segment, burger chains reign supreme, but they face a formidable new challenger. Big Chicken – fast-casual and quick-service dining chains that focus on chicken in all its forms – have been ascendant over the past few years. Between 2019 and 2025, these restaurants significantly expanded their relative visit share from 15.0% to 18.3% among a wide range of fast-casual and quick-service dining categories, including burgers, Mexican chains, sandwich chains, and pizza chains. Much of this growth came at the expense of burger chains, which, despite retaining their title as the category’s largest segment, saw their relative visit share decline from 62.3% in 2019 to 59.8% in 2025.
The limited service category, encompassing a huge range of dining options, continues to evolve and thrive, whether through the dominance of small coffee chains or chicken offerings.
What changes might the category undergo in the coming months and years?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven dining insights.
Shortly after Big Lots’ December 2024 decision to close all remaining stores, the company announced plans to transfer more than 200 locations to Variety Wholesalers – owner of discount banners such as Roses, Maxway, and Super Dollar. Beginning in April 2025, these Big Lot venues began to reopen, and by early June 2025, 219 stores had already resumed operations.
Big Lots’ relaunch is centered on offering shoppers deep discounts and a treasure hunting experience by sourcing closeout, overstock, and liquidation deals. The brand has also revised its product mix – leaning into apparel and electronics while reducing furniture and eliminating perishables. But how likely is this strategy to succeed, and what does it offer Variety Wholesalers?
We dove into the data to find out.
Between January and May 2025, leading discount and dollar chains experienced positive year-over-year (YoY) growth in both visits and average visits per location, reflecting ongoing consumer demand for value. But among these major players, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet stood out with a 14.4% YoY increase in visits and a 6.3% rise in average visits per location, even as the brand continued its store expansion. This trend underscores the strong interest in heavily discounted closeout deals, affirming Big Lots’ decision to reinvest in a liquidation-based model.
An analysis of Big Lots locations reopened by May 1st, 2025 reveals that customers interact with the stores like they do with other treasure-hunting venues. In May 2025, Big Lots saw more weekend and extended visits compared to the category average – mirroring the browsing-friendly vibe at Ollie’s or Five Below. By encouraging shoppers to explore, linger, and discover bargains, Big Lots is creating a retail destination likely to appeal to customers seeking both value and a bit of fun.
Variety Wholesalers hopes to leverage the Big Lots acquisition to reach higher-income bargain hunters. And data from reopened Big Lots stores shows they attract shoppers with more money to spend than Variety Wholesalers’ existing banners – though still less than the nationwide baseline, making them especially receptive to discount offerings. In May 2025, Big Lots’ captured market median HHI stood at $60.9K – close to Ollie’s $64.6K – further underscoring the potential success of a treasure-hunt strategy for Big Lots.
By returning to its deep discount roots, Big Lots appears poised to resonate with today’s value seeking customers. And with the discount segment continuing to grow, this renewed focus on bargains and treasure hunts may help the brand get back on its feet.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Retailers and brands have often turned to limited-edition roll outs, product drops, or collaborations to drive traffic – and hopefully incremental sales. But, do these efforts still resonate with shoppers? Are these programs still as meaningful to the retail industry as they once were?
We dove into the data to see how consumers responded to recent high-profile offerings launched this spring by Trader Joe’s and Target.
When thinking about viral product sensations in 2025, it’s hard not to include the mini tote bag from Trader Joe’s. First released in February 2024 and then again September to fan frenzy, the original bags came in bold, classic colorways like red, yellow, blue and green. This spring, Trader Joe’s changed things up with a pastel-handled version – and once again, consumers couldn’t shop the bags fast enough.
The new mini totes debuted in-store on Tuesday, April 8th, 2025, and foot traffic estimates indicate a highly successful launch. Visits to Trader Joe’s were up 21.2% on launch day compared to a year-to-date Tuesday average, making it the busiest Tuesday of the year so far. Foot traffic also outpaced the mini totes’ second run on September 18th by 13.7%. Clearly, mini totes are the key to Trader Joe’s fanatics’ hearts.
The success of the program may stem in part from Trader Joe’s strong appeal to consumer segments heavily influenced by social media. In April 2025, the chain saw a higher penetration among “Educated Urbanites” and “Young Professionals” compared to the wider grocery industry – two groups that would be heavily clued into viral product trends.
Another high-profile product drop this April was Target’s Kate Spade collection, featuring women’s apparel, shoes, accessories, and home goods.
On the surface, Kate Spade seems a perfect fit for Target – the two brands share remarkably similar visitor profiles, primarily attracting affluent, suburban families. Both brands also place a strong emphasis on discretionary offerings – and the overlap in aesthetic and consumer preferences makes sense in today’s retail market.
However, in-store visitation on launch day (Saturday, April 12th) was down 6.8% compared to the release day of 2024’s collaboration with designer Diane Von Furstenberg and down 3.0% compared to the launch day of 2023’s collaboration with Agua Bendita, Rhode, and Fe Noel. Still, traffic was up 14.1% compared to the 2018 Hunter release. And the collection also debuted on Target.com at midnight PST the same day, so in-store traffic may not reflect overall demand.
One positive takeaway from the collaboration? Its ability to draw back affluent suburban shoppers – a key Target audience. In April 2025, the median household income (HHI) of Target’s captured market experienced a minor but significant bump – up to $86.4K, compared to $85.9K in March 2025 and $85.7K in April 2024.
Today’s shoppers are in the driver’s seat when it comes to setting trends, and retailers spend more time courting them than positioning themselves as authorities on what’s “cool.” Against this backdrop, retailers and brands are constantly vying for the next big viral sensation – or for those products or collections that become must-shop phenomena.
As retailers grapple with how to provide value to consumers amidst economic uncertainty, these offerings provide a new incentive for shoppers to visit that isn’t solely focused on price. Consumers may indeed perceive limited runs to be higher quality, more valuable or worth the extra investment. The concept of manufactured scarcity isn’t new in retail, but it continues to take on new forms as the consumer and industry evolve. We may reach a point where exclusivity and scarcity no longer move the needle for retailers, but that doesn’t seem likely in 2025.
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Target's visits shot up over the pandemic – but the chain has struggled to maintain its COVID-era momentum in recent years. Now, the upcoming back-to-school season presents an opportunity for the chain to bring visits back up.
Target's visits shot up between 2020 and 2022 as Americans stuck at home stocked up on everything from home goods to snacks to sporting equipment. But traffic has slowed since mid-2022, and although Target's visit gap has narrowed recently – May '25 visits were down just 1.7% YoY, a significant improvement from February's 9.1% YoY visit gap – year-over-year (YoY) visits were still down for five of the last six months.
Now, the upcoming back-to-school season may present just the opportunity the retailer needs to swing back into visit growth.
August is Target's second-busiest month of the year (the first is December), as the retailer sees visit upticks from everyone from families looking for back-to-school supplies to students getting ready for a new semester and renters switching leases. This seasonal strength offers more than just high traffic volume – it presents a unique comeback opportunity.
And August isn't just one of Target's busiest months – recent August traffic trends have also outperformed the broader twelve-month pattern.
While Target's overall YoY visit gap has widened over the past year (visits dropped 3.0% between June '24 and May '25 compared to the previous 12-month period, versus a smaller 2.2% decline in the prior year comparison), August's YoY visit gap has narrowed. This may suggest that shoppers who've reduced their Target visits throughout the year still prioritize the retailer during back-to-school season.
This creates a strategic window: Target can leverage this seasonal loyalty by enhancing its in-store experience and product selection during summer months, potentially winning back customers who might otherwise shop elsewhere during the rest of the year.
Families – especially middle and high-income families – make up a significant share of Target's captured market throughout the year. August is no exception – almost half (43.2%) of Target's captured market was made up of just four family segments in August '24 (according to Spatial.ai PersonaLive audience segmentation). Still, this is slightly lower than the 43.4% of family segments in Target's captured market between June '24 and May '25 – indicating that Target's August strength extends beyond its traditional family base.
Meanwhile, the share of single segments in Target's captured markets, which stood at 19.6% over the past twelve months, was up to 20.4% in August '24. So the retailer's summer boost is also driven by college students, young professionals, and other single shoppers – and these consumers may be looking for a different product mix and shopping experience than the traditional back-to-school fare.
Families remain Target's largest visitor segment, so the company should continue meeting the needs of this audience by offering a one-stop back-to-school destination along with BOPIS and curbside pickup to accommodate parents' busy lifestyles.
But the company can also make sure its offerings and shopping experience is set up to meet the needs of its Gen Z and millennial visitors when planning its back to school campaigns and in-store set up. Curating a "Singles & Students" section, carrying compact furniture and dorm room essentials, and setting up Instagram-worthy product displays may help these shoppers see Target as their retail home – building loyalty and boosting Target's traffic throughout the year.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
1. Salt Lake City: Home-Centric Growth and Sustained Consumer Strength
Salt Lake City continues to outperform thanks to a young, fast-growing population and a strong homeownership culture. Retailers in home goods, grocery, and improvement categories are seeing significantly higher YoY foot traffic than the national average.
2. Reno: A Tourism Hub Evolving Beyond Gaming
The share of "Singles & Starters" among Reno's visitor base continues to climb – and this generational diversification is transforming the city into a year-round destination for dining, shopping, and entertainment while fueling traffic gains across Reno-area shopping centers.
3. Indianapolis: Family Affordability Fuels Retail Momentum
With strong employment, affordable housing, and a favorable cost-of-living ratio, discretionary retail and family-friendly dining concepts are particularly well positioned to thrive in this growing midwestern market.
4. Raleigh: Young, High-Earning Consumers Drive Mixed-Use Expansion
Raleigh’s relatively low median age and strong labor market are fueling demand for premium dining and retail, leading to foot traffic gains for upscale mixed-use developments.
5. Tampa: Urban Revival Powers Dining and Retail Gains
In-migration of Gen Z and millennial workers, together with rising office attendance, has boosted commuter and visitor traffic across Tampa’s urban core – helping Tampa's dining concepts grow faster than the national average and underscoring Tampa’s role as a Southeastern consumer hotspot.
Five metros from across the United States stand out for consumer momentum going into 2026: Salt Lake City (UT), Reno (NV), Indianapolis (IN), Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (FL), and Raleigh-Durham (NC). All five metro areas saw their populations increase by more than the average U.S. metro between 2023 and 2024, and year-over-year (YoY) retail and dining traffic trends outpaced the nationwide average.
Utah is one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S. The state’s population has grown steadily for more than two decades with unemployment remaining consistently below the nationwide average, with one of the youngest workforces in the country. According to some analysts, the median household income in Utah, when adjusted for cost of living, is the highest in the nation.
All of this positions Salt Lake City – the state’s capital – as a particularly attractive market heading into 2026. Location analytics show year-over-year increases in foot traffic across many neighborhoods, from established retail hubs like Sugar House and Downtown SLC to the more mixed-use Central City and primarily residential areas such as The Avenues and East Bench. The city also serves as a gateway to a diverse mix of audiences, attracting younger residents and commuters as well as affluent families who come into the city to shop, dine, and enjoy local attractions.
Salt Lake City’s diversity in age and household composition as well as Utah's strong homeownership culture – even among younger cohorts – creates opportunities for retail and dining chains across categories. Home-forward concepts are particularly poised to outperform, as shown by recent location analytics. Traffic to furniture & home furnishing chains increased 7.4% YoY in the Salt Lake City DMA compared to a 2.5% increase nationwide, and grocery stores and home improvement retailers outperformed in the market as well. These trends point to a solid market for retailers tied to home life – from furniture and décor to everyday grocery needs –driven not only by steady population growth and household spending, but also by a local culture that places strong emphasis on family and the home.
While Salt Lake City continues to build on its strong foundation, another Western city is quietly gaining momentum. Reno, Nevada, which is often viewed as a regional gaming-town, is increasingly emerging as a dynamic travel destination in its own right.
In 2024 Washoe County (including the city of Reno) welcomed approximately 3.8 million visitors whose spending of about $3.4 billion generated a total economic impact of $5.2 billion. This growth signals a robust visitor-economy that supports roughly 43,800 jobs and generates over $420 million in state and local tax revenue.
What makes this particularly compelling is that while Las Vegas, Nevada is facing mounting pressures from increasing costs, the Reno-Tahoe region is showing stronger resilience thanks in part to a drive-market model and diversified appeal. Analyzing the traffic data shows that visits from non-residents, and non-employees to downtown Reno have increased YoY for the past three years. And though Reno may be thought of as a vacation spot for older Gen X and Baby Boomer vacationers, the data also indicates that Singles & Starters –"young singles starting out and some starter families living a city lifestyle" – make up an increasingly large share of Reno's visitor base.
This generational diversification carries important implications for both retail and real estate investment. As younger visitors drive up spending in food, entertainment, and shopping centers, the market is poised for renewed urban energy – fueling redevelopment across downtown corridors and mixed-use projects. With strategic public–private investments and an expanding visitor economy, Reno stands out as a market to watch in 2026, combining strong fundamentals with emerging demographic momentum.
The Midwest also contains several metro areas on the rise. Large-scale manufacturing projects like Intel’s $20 billion chip plants and Honda and LG Energy Solution’s EV battery facility are spurring housing and retail expansion around Columbus, Ohio. Kansas City, Missouri, is benefiting from logistics growth and projected tourism growth linked to its role as a FIFA World Cup 2026 host city. And Madison, Wisconsin, is seeing steady consumer growth is supported by its diverse tech and biotech economy.
But Indianapolis, Indiana tops the charts in terms of YoY overall retail visit growth between May and October 2025 (+4.3%, see first chart). And much of the consumer traffic in the Indianapolis DMA consists of suburban and rural households – precisely the segments that many retailers are now trying to woo.
Family-friendly retailers and dining chains are particularly well positioned to thrive in Indiana heading into 2026. Indianapolis has some of the best job prospects and most affordable home prices in the country – and its favorable salary to cost of living ratio likely allows many families to have leftover income left over for discretionary spending.
Recent data shows that a range of family-oriented brands – from Chili’s and Marshall’s to Kroger – have outperformed in Indianapolis over the past six months. The city’s growing middle-income population and its suburban, family-focused consumer base appear to be fueling stronger in-person spending, particularly at convenient, affordable, and community-oriented retail and dining destinations.
Moving east to North Carolina brings several additional growing metros into focus, including Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, and Charlotte. But Raleigh rises above the pack with its powerful combination of job growth, steady in-migration, and a well-balanced, diversified economy.
All this is leading to YoY increases in total traffic within the Raleigh-Durham, NC DMA, driven in part by major firms – including entrants in finance and life-sciences – continuing to expand operations in the area. The city of Raleigh also has relatively low median age and relatively high median household income. This combination of robust job creation, wage gains, and a growing pool of young, high-spending residents positions Raleigh as one of the most dynamic consumer markets in the Southeast heading into 2026.
Raleigh's consumer growth potential is particularly stark when looking at performance of major mixed-use developments across the region. Foot traffic at leading projects such as Smoky Hollow, the Main District at North Hills Street, and Fenton in Cary has climbed sharply.
The data also shows that these destinations attract a disproportionately high share of wealthy singles and one-person households – a demographic with strong discretionary spending power. Together, these trends point to a deepening base of urban, high-income consumers fueling growth in dining, retail, and entertainment – making Raleigh one of the country's most dynamic and opportunity-rich metro areas heading into 2026.
In the Southeast, Tampa is one of the nation’s standout metro areas heading into 2026. Strong fundamentals – such as no state income tax and expanding employment in sectors like technology, healthcare, and logistics – have attracted a significant influx of Gen Z and millennial residents. And although in-migration is beginning to slow somewhat, the city's expanding economy and youthful talent base continue to fuel growth across housing, retail, and dining.
And as more companies require employees to spend additional days in the office, YoY commuter traffic has increased across Tampa’s major cities. Leisure visits from non-residents are also on the rise, suggesting that retailers and dining chains seeking to capture this expanding market could benefit from growing their presence throughout the Tampa metro area.
Rising traffic across Tampa’s major urban areas appears to be translating into stronger dining activity as well. Over the past six months, average YoY visits to Tampa area full-service restaurants, coffee shops, and fast-casual chains have all exceeded the national average, which may reflect a broader acceleration in both local workforce and leisure-visitor demand.
1. Retail is deeply divided. Visits to value and luxury apparel segments grew YoY in 2025 while traffic to mid-tier retailers flagged.
2. Upscale dining momentum reflects similar bifurcation. More resilient, affluent consumers are bolstering fine-dining traffic.
3. Authenticity is key. Brands successfully executing on a clear sense of purpose – from community-driven grocers to bookstores – are driving consistent visit growth.
4. Online and offline retail are converging into a seamless ecosystem. As consumers seek online value and in-person convenience, AI fulfillment, dark stores, and local pickup are accelerating.
5. Digitally native brands expanding into physical retail are redefining omnichannel. These chains provide a blueprint for merging digital efficiency with personalized in-store experiences.
6. Traditionally urban brands are shifting to suburbia to capture new audiences. With consumers rooted in hybrid lifestyles and growing suburban demand, chains that adapt their footprints drive fresh traffic.
7. Expansion into college markets and celebrity pop-ups are helping retailers and malls connect with younger consumers. Brands that grew their footprints in college towns or on campuses increased their Gen Z traffic, as did malls that hosted celebrity or influencer activations.
Retail and dining faced another complex year in 2025. Persistent economic headwinds and uncertainty surrounding tariffs intensified consumers’ focus on value, even as affluent shoppers continued to indulge in luxury brands and upscale dining experiences.
Yet the year also revealed behavioral shifts that extended beyond price sensitivity. Shoppers increasingly prioritized brands that convey authenticity and a clear sense of purpose – those that deliver value not only through price, but through omnichannel convenience, product quality, and brand ethos.
For their part, retailers and malls continued to evolve, adopting strategies to capture both the expanding suburban market and a rising generation of younger consumers emerging as a defining force in retail.
How have these trends evolved, and how will they shape the retail landscape in 2026? We dove into the data to find out.
The first three quarters of 2025 underscored a widening divide in the apparel sector, with strength at both ends of the price and income spectrums.
Off-price retailers and thrift stores, which draw shoppers from lower- and middle-income trade areas, gained significant ground – reflecting consumers’ ongoing search for value and treasure-hunt experiences that feel both economical and rewarding. At the same time, luxury maintained modest growth, showing that high-income shoppers remain resilient and willing to spend on premium experiences. Meanwhile, traditional apparel and mid-tier department stores continued to see visit declines, signaling further pressure on the retail middle. Retailers such as Target and Kohl’s, traditional staples of this middle segment, are contending with the challenge of defining their identity to consumers in a market increasingly split between value and luxury.
Looking ahead to 2026, mid-tier retailers will need to navigate a complex and polarized landscape. Without the clear positioning enjoyed by value and luxury players, success will require sharper differentiation and disciplined execution. But though the middle remains a tough place to compete, it still holds potential: Brands that can redefine relevance – something many of these same chains achieved just a few years ago – stand to capture consumers with spending power.
A similar bifurcation dynamic is also unfolding in the dining sector.
Upscale full-service restaurants (FSRs) are outperforming their casual dining counterparts, as higher-income consumers – and those dining out for special occasions – seek elevated experiences at fine-dining chains.
At the same time, more cost-conscious diners are trading down from casual dining FSRs to fast-casual chains, which continue to outperform the casual dining segment. Fast-casual brands are also benefiting from trading up within the limited-service segment, as consumers who choose to eat out – rather than eat at home or grab a lower-cost prepared meal at a c-store or grocery – opt for more experiences that feel more premium yet remain accessible.
Across both retail and dining, bifurcation doesn’t tell the whole story. Even as spending concentrates at the high and low ends of the market, a growing number of brands are succeeding by delivering an experience that feels intentional, distinctive, and true to their identity. These concepts share a clear raison d’être – a sense of purpose that resonates with consumers – as well as successful execution. The data shows that brands providing this kind of “on-point” experience are driving consistent visit growth in 2025, signaling that authenticity may be important retail currency in 2026.
Trader Joe’s sustained momentum reflects its ability to make shopping feel like discovery. The chain’s locally-inspired assortments, roughly 80% private-label mix, and steady rotation of seasonal products keep visits fresh and engagement high.
Sprouts, for its part, continues to benefit from a sharpened identity centered on freshness, sustainability, and health. Its smaller-format stores, curated product mix, and messaging around healthy living have helped it build a loyal base of wellness‐oriented shoppers.
Meanwhile, Barnes & Noble’s transformation offers a compelling case study in the power of experience. Its strategy of empowering local managers to curate store selections and host community events has turned stores into cultural touchpoints – driving increased visits and dwell times.
All three brands derive their strength from their clarity of purpose – illustrating how authenticity and intentionality are becoming meaningful factors shaping consumer engagement.
Authenticity isn’t limited to national names. Regional players such as H-E-B and In-N-Out Burger demonstrate how deeply ingrained local identity can translate into sustained growth.
H-E-B’s community-driven ethos, local sourcing, and operational excellence have built trust across Texas markets, helping it remain one of the country’s most beloved grocery chains, with high rates of shoppers visiting multiple times a month. And in the quick-service category, California-native In-N-Out Burger stands out for its quality, nostalgia, and mystique, as the chain continues to attract visitation trends that exceed national QSR benchmarks.
These brands demonstrate that authenticity can have a local element. Their success reflects not just product strength or efficiency, but a deeper connection to the communities they serve.
While regional and experience-driven brands continue to build deep consumer connections, the broader retail landscape is also being reshaped by operational innovation. As technology and infrastructure improve, retailers are finding new ways to merge digital efficiency with convenient physical touchpoints.
E-commerce growth and in-store activity are increasingly interconnected. Visits to ecommerce distribution centers* climbed steadily between October 2021 and September 2025, while the share of short, under-10-minute trips to big-box chains Target, Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club also increased. Together, these patterns suggest that while online shopping continues to expand, consumers remain highly engaged with physical locations through buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) and same-day fulfillment channels – combining the value of online deals with the convenience of quick, local pickup.
This trend also reflects ongoing advancements in AI-driven fulfillment and Walmart’s testing of dark stores – retail spaces converted into local fulfillment hubs that accelerate delivery and enable quick customer pickup. These innovations are shortening fulfillment windows while optimizing store networks for hybrid demand.
As retailers continue to blur the boundaries between digital and physical commerce in 2026, expect them to become increasingly complementary parts of a single, omnichannel ecosystem.
*The Placer.ai E-commerce Distribution Center Index measures foot traffic across more than 400 distribution centers nationwide, including facilities operated by leading retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target. Designed as a barometer for U.S. e-commerce activity, the index captures two key audiences: employees, estimated through dwell-time patterns, and visitors, who often represent logistics partners delivering raw materials, moving in-process goods, or collecting finished products.
The resurgence of digitally native brands embracing physical retail underscores how online and offline strategies are converging into an integrated model, combining digital efficiency with the benefits of a physical presence.
Framebridge, a DTC custom framing brand, offers a clear example of this trend. As the brand has expanded its footprint, the average number of monthly visits to each of its locations rose sharply throughout 2025.
Framebridge’s success lies in its well-executed omnichannel model. Customers can place orders online or in store, with the option to ship directly to their homes or pick up in person.
But for Framebridge, physical locations aren’t just about convenience. Art and memories are often one of a kind, so having knowledgeable staff in store and the opportunity to engage with materials firsthand transforms a transaction into a personalized, consultative experience.
Framebridge exemplifies how digitally native brands are merging the ease of online shopping with physical spaces that provide a personal touch. And more digitally native brands, like Gymshark, are looking to bring their business offline with the hope of adding value for consumers.
As retailers advance their omnichannel strategies, another enduring shift is reshaping the retail map post-pandemic – the continued rise of suburban traffic. Brands that entered the pandemic with strong suburban footprints were among the first to benefit as in-person activity rebounded, while urban-focused chains that expanded outward have met migrating consumers and captured new audiences anchored in hybrid lifestyles and local shopping routines.
Large-format and drive-thru focused brands like Costco, Cava, and Dutch Bros. entered the pandemic era from a position of strength as they are traditionally situated in suburban and exurban areas. As consumers spent more time close to home and away from urban centers, these chains captured heightened local demand and saw visits rebound rapidly once in-person shopping resumed.
And as the pandemic reshaped consumer traffic patterns, brands like Shake Shack and Chipotle quickly recognized emerging opportunities in suburban markets and adjusted their strategies to capture this shifting demand. For Shake Shack – a brand once defined by its urban storefronts – the shift toward suburban drive-thrus and stand-alone locations represented a significant pivot. Chipotle followed a similar path, accelerating its suburban expansion through the rollout of “Chipotlane” drive-thru lanes.
Arriving somewhat later to the suburban landscape, sweetgreen, once synonymous with its urban footprint, opened its first drive-thru in 2022, and by 2024 had made suburban markets a core pillar of its growth strategy.
These real estate moves positioned all three brands to capture demand from remote and hybrid workers, helping sustain visit growth well above pre-pandemic baselines.
As suburban demand continues to grow, the suburbs will likely remain a critical growth frontier for many brands in the year ahead.
Investment in suburban markets underscores how changing market conditions and strategy adaptation can allow brands to meet consumers where they are. And a parallel trend is unfolding in college towns and youth-dense trade areas, where brands are channeling investment to capture rising Gen Z spending power.
Expansion in college-anchored markets, paired with celebrity and influencer-driven pop-ups, is helping retailers build cultural relevance and increase engagement with this emerging consumer base.
The graph below underscores how targeted expansion into college-anchored markets can meaningfully shift audience composition. Over the last several years, many brands have expanded their near-campus footprints – and in turn, attracted a higher share of the Spatial.ai:PersonaLive “Young Urban Singles” segment, one highly aligned with Gen Z consumers.
CAVA’s rapid unit growth, including openings near major universities and in college towns, helped the brand increase its share of “Young Urban Singles” within its captured trade areas between October 2018-September 2019 and October 2024-September 2025. Meanwhile, Panda Express and Raising Cane's, which already had relatively large shares of the segment six years ago, have also invested in college-adjacent locations, lifting their “Young Urban Singles” audience share.
Even legacy mass retailer Target benefited from small-format and large store expansions near universities – growing its captured market share of “Young Urban Singles”.
These shifts suggest that college towns will continue to be strategic growth markets, including for luxury brands like Hermès. By making inroads in college towns and with Gen Z shoppers, brands can strengthen loyalty early and build durable market share that remains as these young adults move on from campus life.
As Gen Z’s influence expands beyond campus borders, retail engagement is increasingly driven by cultural moments that resonate with this cohort. And malls are finding that temporary pop-ups including influencer collaborations and celebrity-led activations can attract these young consumers.
At The Grove, the Pandora pop-up with brand ambassador girl-group Katseye in October 2024 led to a modest but significant increase in the Gen Z-dominant “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” segments within the mall’s captured trade area during the first week of the activation – compared to the average for the last twelve months.
Similarly, at Westfield Century City, the Taylor Swift x TikTok activation from October 3rd-9th, 2025 – which allowed fans to immerse themselves in the sets from the viral “The Fate of Ophelia” music video boosted the shares of “Young Urban Singles” and Young Professionals”, underscoring the star power of everything Taylor Swift.
And at American Dream, the pattern extended beyond younger audiences. On September 5th and 6th, 2025, Ninja Kidz attended the grand opening of their Action Park while Salish Matters made an appearance at the mall on September 6th for her skincare pop-up – which drew such large crowds that it had to be shut down. During these two event days, the mall’s shares of both “Young Professionals” and “Ultra-Wealthy Families” increased substantially, highlighting that pop-up events can draw young and affluent family audiences.
Together, these examples reinforce that, in 2026, the integration of short-term pop-ups will continue to be a strategy for malls and individual brands to gain relevance for key demographic segments.
2025 reinforced that retail remains as dynamic as ever. Value continues to anchor decisions, but consumers are redefining what value means – blending price sensitivity with expectations for authenticity. And in the current retail landscape, online and physical retail are growing more interconnected as consumers demand convenience and experience.
In 2026, adaptability will be retailers’ greatest competitive edge. The next era of retail will belong to brands that can continue to refine their operating strategy – while staying true to a clear brand identity.
1) Retail foot traffic faces lingering pressure – making promotions more critical than ever. Financial uncertainty, tariffs, and inflation continue to weigh on discretionary spending, making well-timed, targeted holiday promotions essential to reignite demand and drive in-store traffic.
2) The retail divide appears set to widen this holiday season – Luxury and off-price apparel are both outpacing overall retail, reflecting a deepening bifurcation of consumer behavior. And this December, the affluence gap between the two categories is expected to expand further, underscoring opportunities to engage both premium and value-focused shoppers across segments.
3) Despite slower overall performance, beauty and electronics have performed well during recent retail milestones. To make the most of this momentum, advertisers should align campaigns with shifting holiday audiences – electronics toward married homeowners and beauty toward affluent suburban families.
4) Early Promotions Could Lift In-Store Traffic – Last year, early holiday campaigns helped offset a shorter shopping season and sustain strong results. With another condensed window and continued shipping disruptions, retailers who start early and emphasize in-store availability will be best positioned to capture additional visits and outperform 2024’s results.
The holiday season is fast approaching, but this year’s backdrop looks especially complex. Consumers are navigating heightened financial uncertainty, with tariffs driving up prices and disrupting supply, while inflation continues to weigh on discretionary spending.
For retailers and advertisers, the stakes are high. The holiday period remains a critical window for promotional engagement, and success will depend on understanding consumer behavior and crafting promotions that are timed, targeted, and designed to meet shoppers where they are.
We turned to foot traffic data to uncover the key trends shaping this season’s retail environment, and to identify promotional strategies likely to succeed.
Consumer activity appeared strong in most of early 2025 – except in February, when extreme weather and leap-year comparisons drove sharp year-over-year (YoY) declines. But foot traffic slowed this summer, highlighting the toll of lingering financial uncertainty and strain.
For advertisers, this underscores how pivotal seasonal promotions will be in reigniting demand. With many consumers cutting back on discretionary spending, well-timed and well-targeted campaigns will be essential to encourage shoppers to spend more freely during the holidays. These promotions don’t have to rely solely on price cuts — pop-culture collaborations and other creative product launches have also proven highly effective in driving traffic this year.
> Financial uncertainty and tighter household budgets are weighing on retail foot traffic this year – making effective holiday promotions more critical than ever.
Still, not all retail categories have been equally affected by broader economic headwinds. Some segments have experienced softer demand, signaling where advertisers may need to take a more measured, efficiency-focused approach. Others, however, have shown notable resilience – offering opportunities to double down on creative promotions that deepen engagement during the holidays.
One such segment is home furnishings, which has seen YoY traffic gains over the past 12 months, driven by the strong performance of discount chains as shoppers favor accessible décor updates over large-scale renovations. Strategic campaigns highlighting affordable refreshes and quick “holiday-ready” makeovers could give the category an additional lift in Q4, as households look to update their spaces in preparation for hosting family and friends.
But the biggest gains have been in the apparel category, where a bifurcation trend has emerged, boosting visits at both luxury and off-price retailers. The success of both segments underscores promotional strategies that can amplify momentum – steep-value discounts on one end of the spectrum, and exclusivity and quality on the other. Advertisers across retail segments can adapt this dual approach to engage both budget-driven and premium audiences effectively.
And demographic data reveals just how deeply entrenched this bifurcation has become – especially during the holiday season.
The chart below examines monthly changes in the median household incomes (HHIs) of luxury and off-price retailers’ captured markets since January 2023. Even small shifts in HHI across major retail categories can signal meaningful changes in audience composition – and these patterns tell a clear story.
In luxury apparel, where the median HHI is well above the national average of $79.6K, visitor income follows a distinct seasonal rhythm. During the early holiday shopping period, HHI remains lower in October and dips slightly in November as middle-income shoppers take advantage of early promotions to snag products that may be out of reach the rest of the year. It then rises in December as affluent consumers return to purchase gifts. Notably, luxury HHI has trended upward since 2023 – with each holiday peak higher than the last – suggesting that this December’s visitor base will be even more affluent than last year.
For advertisers, this means late-season campaigns should prioritize prestige audiences while still engaging aspirational shoppers during early holiday promotions like Black Friday.
In the off-price apparel segment, on the other hand, median HHI typically declines during the holidays – especially in December – indicating an influx of more price-sensitive shoppers. And over time, this visitor base has become even more value-driven, reinforcing the importance of promotional messaging that emphasizes unbeatable deals and savings.
Together, these patterns once again highlight the growing need for tailored strategies: premium experiences for high earners and sharp value propositions for cost-conscious consumers – a lesson that may extend well beyond these categories.
>The retail divide is expected to deepen further in December 2025, with off-price retailers drawing more value-driven shoppers and luxury brands attracting increasingly affluent consumers.
In a challenging economic environment, one might expect promotions around key retail milestones to prompt consumers to deviate from their usual habits, experimenting with new brands or categories. Yet the data shows that, for the most part, shoppers instead deepened their engagement with the retailers they already patronize – utilizing holiday promotions to buy the same products at better prices.
The graph below shows that during recent shopping milestones, the off-price and luxury categories both stood out in YoY performance – reflecting the strong momentum sustained by both segments over the past twelve months.
Still, the graph above also highlights two additional segments potentially poised for holiday success: beauty & self care and electronics.
Despite slower traffic over the past year, beauty retailers saw notable spikes around key recent promotional moments – including Black Friday, Mother’s Day, and Memorial Day. And although electronics retailers continued to face headwinds as consumers delayed big-ticket purchases – including during last year’s Black Friday – more recent milestones have seen traffic stabilize or even increase YoY.
This indicates that the right promotional environment can still effectively drive engagement in these discretionary categories, and that deal-driven behavior is likely to remain a defining theme this holiday season. In addition, as the replacement cycle begins for major electronics first purchased during the pandemic, shoppers may be especially willing to upgrade to a new TV or laptop if the right offer comes along.
But to make the most of the opportunity presented by Q4, advertisers and retailers in the beauty and electronics spaces should pay close attention to the shifting demographics of their in-store audiences during the holiday season.
For electronics retailers, married couples and homeowners become increasingly important during the peak holiday shopping period. Their share in the category’s captured market rises consistently each December, indicating that campaigns emphasizing household upgrades, family entertainment, and quality-of-life improvements may resonate most effectively in late Q4.
In contrast, beauty retailers – typically buoyed by young professionals – see their audience composition shift towards suburbia during the holidays. In December, the share of wealthy suburban families in beauty retailers’ captured markets grows meaningfully, while the share of young professionals declines. Advertisers can capitalize by highlighting premium bundles, limited-edition sets, and gifting options that speak directly to these households’ desire for premium, family-oriented products.
> Off-price and luxury retailers maintained strong performance during major retail milestones, but beauty and electronics stand out as rising opportunities for the 2025 holiday season.
> As holiday demographics shift during the holiday season – with electronics drawing more married homeowners and beauty attracting wealthier suburban families – campaigns that reflect these audiences’ lifestyles and priorities will resonate most.
Timing is also a decisive factor in retailer and advertiser success during the holiday season.
Traditionally, the “core” holiday retail period begins with Black Friday and continues until Christmas Eve. But in 2024, there was one fewer week between these two milestones compared to the previous year. And to compensate, many retailers launched an “early” holiday season, rolling out promotions in October and early November to maximize consumer engagement.
As the graph below shows, the shorter “core” season of 2024 unsurprisingly drew less in-store traffic across retail categories than the longer period the year before. Yet by embracing early promotions, retailers offset much of this shortfall, leading to overall holiday season results that, in many cases, matched or even exceeded 2023’s performance.
Looking ahead, 2025 once again brings a compressed “core” shopping window. And with shipping disruptions still influenced by shifting tariff regulations, more consumers may turn to brick-and-mortar stores earlier in the season to ensure timely purchases – further supporting offline traffic.
If retailers and advertisers double down on early-season engagement while continuing to drive momentum through the “core” weeks, YoY traffic for the 2025 holiday season could deliver even bigger overall gains than those seen in 2024.
> Last year, early holiday promotions helped offset a shorter core holiday season.
> In 2025, retail and advertising professionals are again faced with a relatively short core shopping season. And aware of the condensed timeline and shipping disruptions, more shoppers may opt for early in-store purchases to avoid the risk of delayed deliveries.
This holiday season will reward advertisers and retailers who recognize the growing retail divide and tailor their messaging to the shoppers most likely to visit during the holidays – whether married homeowners on the hunt for electronics or affluent suburban families seeking beauty products. As in 2024, acting early to offset a shorter core shopping period will be essential to capturing demand. And those who combine sharp timing with audience insight will be best positioned to turn a complex season into a strong finish.
