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Shopping centers continued their growth streak in February 2026, with visits to all three formats – indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls – up year-over-year (YoY). After leading traffic gains in 2025, indoor malls took a back seat once again to open-air centers which led the category with a 7.3% YoY increase in February visits. Importantly, outlet malls followed closely behind with foot traffic up 7.2% YoY, after increasing 3.5% YoY in January 2026 – suggesting that the format is regaining momentum after its recent lull.
Even more notable is that when isolating the peak mall hours (11 AM to 8 PM), outlet malls led all formats in year-over-year visit growth across every daypart – 11 AM to 2 PM, 2 PM to 5 PM, and 5 PM to 8 PM. And while evening gains were strongest across all mall types, outlet malls posted the most significant increase during those hours.
This evening momentum may reflect a broader shift in how outlet centers are positioning themselves. Rather than serving solely as transactional shopping destinations, some are expanding their food and experiential offerings to encourage longer, more social visits. Recent examples include the addition of a craft beer truck at San Marcos Premium Outlets in Texas and the debut of a highly anticipated Japanese-Peruvian concept restaurant at Sawgrass Mills in Florida, which are likely drawing more leisure-oriented visitors to the centers.
Outlet mall's traffic softness in recent years likely reflected intensifying competition for value-driven apparel from off-price retailers and resale channels, which siphoned off some of the bargain-focused demand that traditionally fueled outlet visits. But if outlet malls can successfully differentiate through dining and experiential offerings – extending visits beyond purely transactional trips – they may be better positioned for a stronger 2026 as they compete on experience as well as price.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
With prices still elevated and consumer sentiment down significantly from last year, appetite for savings is stronger than ever. But as shoppers pull back on non-essentials, how are discretionary-oriented value chains like Five Below and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet holding up?
In its most recent reported quarter (ending November 1, 2025), Ollie’s delivered a 3.3% increase in same-store sales, driven by a mid-single-digit rise in transactions even as average ticket declined slightly. Five Below posted even stronger comp growth (+14.3%), fueled by both higher transaction counts and larger baskets.
And both chains saw solid year-over-year (YoY) overall traffic growth during the final months of 2025 – including the all-important holiday season – and into 2026. This performance suggests that even in a cautious consumer environment, demand for discretionary value remains resilient.
Customer loyalty is also increasing at both chains. For Ollie’s, which enjoys a slightly higher share of repeat visits, loyalty – fueled by its constantly shifting inventory of closeout merchandise – is further reinforced by the growing Ollie’s Army rewards program.
For Five Below, the gains appear to reflect the strength of its value positioning and evolving mix of affordable, fun indulgences – from seasonal décor to trendy toys – that create a steady cadence of newness and encourage frequent visits, even without a formal loyalty program.
And as both chains continue to grow, sustaining this repeat engagement will be critical to supporting comps and maximizing productivity across an expanding store base.
With traffic growth supported by a growing base of loyal customers, the discount segment appears well-positioned to maintain its edge into 2026. But how much runway remains before expansion begins to dilute store productivity?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Dollar General and Dollar Tree have both been thriving, delivering positive same-store comps for several quarters in a row even as they continue expanding their footprints. But how long can both keep winning? As the two chains grow, will the overlap between them begin to pressure performance?
Despite intensifying competition from mass merchants like Walmart, the data suggests that Dollar General and Dollar Tree still have meaningful runway for growth. Both retailers are expanding their footprints while maintaining traffic at existing stores – a sign of robust demand.
Dollar General, now a staple grocery destination for many households, posted mid- to high-single-digit same-store traffic gains between September 2025 and January 2026, even as it deepened its expansion into rural America. Meanwhile, Dollar Tree, which added more than 300 stores over the past year, maintained flat to modestly positive same-store traffic trends.
As price-conscious consumers prioritize value, overall demand for dollar stores appears to be expanding rather than simply shifting between banners.
Visitor behavior at the two chains helps explain why there is room for both to continue expanding. In addition to serving different geographies – Dollar General maintains a stronger presence in rural communities and in the eastern United States, while Dollar Tree has greater penetration in the West – the banners also fulfill different shopping missions.
As the chart below shows, 25.0% of Dollar General visitors in 2025 were frequent shoppers, defined as four or more visits in an average month, compared to just 9.2% at Dollar Tree. Average dwell time also diverged, with shoppers spending 20.0 minutes per visit at Dollar General versus 13.6 minutes at Dollar Tree.
Those patterns suggest that Dollar General functions as a routine essentials stop embedded in weekly shopping habits – a consumables-driven positioning that appears to be strengthening as the company expands large-format stores and invests further in fresh food offerings.
Dollar Tree, by contrast, plays a more targeted role, capturing shorter, mission-driven trips often tied to seasonal goods, party supplies, or discretionary bargains. And as it leans further into higher-ticket discretionary items through its multi-price 3.0 format – while also expanding its consumables assortment – the chain is reinforcing its treasure-hunt appeal while gradually becoming more relevant for routine trips.
All in all, the data points to a category that is expanding rather than consolidating. Consistent same-store visit growth, ongoing store expansion, and differentiated shopping behavior all suggest that Dollar General and Dollar Tree are thriving side by side – serving distinct missions within a shared value-driven ecosystem.
For more data-driven retail insights, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Beauty retail continues to navigate a complex landscape in which discretionary spending remains constrained and digital and social commerce play an increasingly significant role. But diving into the foot traffic trends for Ulta Beauty and Bath & Body Works – two of the sector’s largest players – reveals how the right strategy can drive both brick-and-mortar and online growth in a dynamic retail environment.
Ulta delivered fiscal Q3 results that exceeded expectations. Management credited the success of Ulta Beauty Unleashed, including investments in digital capabilities, celebrity activations, and brand launches that strengthened both e-commerce and in-store performance. One of the key milestones for the company during the quarter included the launch of the Ulta Beauty Marketplace, which expands the assortment of products available to Ulta’s online shoppers.
And while year-over-year (YoY) visits and visits per venue were essentially flat in December 2025, foot traffic trends in recent months suggest the company could be on track for another positive quarter.
In its most recent earnings call, Bath & Body Works reported sales declines, pointing to macroeconomic pressure on consumers and an elevated promotional environment. In response, management outlined a “consumer-first formula” centered on product innovation, an elevated in-store experience, renewed cultural relevance, and enhanced digital discovery – including the launch of an Amazon storefront.
Yet Bath & Body Works’ YoY monthly visits remained positive throughout 2025 and into early 2026, indicating that the brand has maintained relevance even as consumers grew more value conscious. If Bath & Body Works can execute on its updated strategic direction, it may be positioned to build on its existing traffic momentum and improve overall performance in the months ahead.
Younger audience engagement emerged as a theme in both companies’ strategic discussions, whether by way of Ulta’s campus activations or Bath & Body Works’ network of influencers.
An AI-powered analysis of each brand’s potential versus captured markets – comparing the trade areas from which they could draw visitors with the households that ultimately account for in-store traffic – offers additional context to the companies’ investment in this key demographic.
In 2025, both retailers attracted an outsized share of family-oriented segments. Wealthy Suburban Families, Upper Suburban Diverse Families, and Near-Urban Diverse Families were overrepresented in captured markets relative to potential markets for both brands. Meanwhile, shares of Young Urban Singles, Young Professionals, and Educated Urbanites (well-educated, younger consumers) were smaller in both brands’ captured markets than in their potential markets.
The gap between captured and potential audiences points to a meaningful opportunity that Ulta and Bath & Body Works seem to understand. While both retailers resonate with established, family households, incremental growth may hinge on driving more traffic from younger consumers.
Ulta and Bath & Body Works’ traffic patterns suggest that beauty demand remains resilient, even as consumer spending patterns evolve. And both brands are positioning for their next phase of growth through multi-pronged strategies that address deepening engagement from younger audiences.
Will these beauty retailers build on their successes in the coming months? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
For downtowns still waiting on office attendance or international tourism to fully rebound, Sacramento offers a more proactive recovery model. Rather than anchoring its future to any single demand driver, the city has spent the past several years deliberately engineering demand – using programming, placemaking, and policy to create the kinds of “social collisions” that give people reasons to show up, stay longer, and come back.
Like many cities, Sacramento has navigated prolonged disruptions to traditional downtown demand streams, from office attendance to international tourism and business travel. But instead of waiting for those patterns to fully normalize, city leaders have leaned into what they could control – regional identity and local draw.
Elevating the city’s creative and cultural assets while strengthening its positioning as the “Farm-to-Fork Capital of America” through major festivals like Terra Madre Americas, has helped Sacramento stabilize leisure visitation even amid broader uncertainty. Food-forward events, large-scale music festivals, and major league sports – including NBA Kings games and MLB Athletics games based in West Sacramento through 2027 – have created reasons to visit that do not depend on office mandates or long-haul travel.
And the impact of this strategy is showing up in visitor behavior. Weekend out-of-market visits to downtown Sacramento are on the rise, and visitors are staying longer – signaling sustained engagement with the urban core.
At the center of Sacramento’s strategy is a belief that programming functions as economic infrastructure. Over the past decade, the downtown has expanded from hosting a relatively limited number of annual events to more than 200 today, ranging from major festivals to weekly farmers markets.
These events translate directly into foot traffic and revenue for retail, dining, and entertainment. The chart below shows how local programming draws visitors into DOCO, the Downtown Commons entertainment and retail district adjacent to Golden 1 Center, with audience composition varying by event. Family-oriented programming such as the Sacramento Santa Parade attracts more affluent family households, while events like the California Brewers Festival draw a higher share of younger singles and early-career professionals.
Event days are also associated with longer dwell times within the district, suggesting deeper engagement with the surrounding retail environment.
The city has also taken other steps to generate “social collisions”. Working with the city’s nighttime economy manager, Sacramento introduced a limited entertainment permit that removes one-size-fits-all regulatory barriers and allows brick-and-mortar businesses to host local performances at a far lower cost. And these policy changes were reinforced with targeted investments – like a six-block illuminated pedestrian corridor connecting key downtown anchors, which shifts colors for Sacramento Kings games or seasonal moments.
Sacramento’s downtown recovery offers a clear lesson for cities navigating long-term structural change: Waiting for old patterns to return is far riskier than designing new ones. By leaning into culture and programming, Sacramento is strengthening the downtown economy while delivering value to local residents and the broader region.
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The Kroger Company closed Q4 2025 with an average 2.3% year-over-year (YoY) overall traffic growth and a 2.8% YoY increase in visits per venue across its 20+ banners, highlighting the ongoing resilience of the grocery category going into 2026. For the full year (2025), the company's overall traffic as well as average visits per venue increased 1.0% YoY.
But even as traffic increased, average dwell time across the company's banners decreased YoY – suggesting that consumers may be visiting Kroger stores more frequently but filling smaller baskets during each trip.
Traffic trends to Kroger's largest banners mirrored the company-wide performance with more visits but a shorter average dwell time compared to the previous year.
These patterns reflect larger trends seen across the grocery space, where traffic growth has been largely driven by an increase in shorter trips as shoppers split their lists across retailers and make more targeted visits based on price, promotion, or specific product needs. In this more fragmented and mission-driven environment, Kroger’s scale, private-label penetration, and data-driven promotional engine provide a competitive advantage. Still, in a market defined by shorter, targeted visits, sustainable growth will depend on Kroger’s ability to defend “share of list” while leveraging its operational efficiency and loyalty ecosystem to convert traffic gains into profitable sales.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Across segments, retail and dining expansions converge on a common set of priorities, including identifying markets with strong demand, ensuring alignment with target audiences, and leveraging local consumer behavior to drive synergy. Using AI-powered location intelligence, we analyzed five expanding brands and segments to uncover the core principles driving successful site selection.
Nationwide visits to coffee chains are up in 2026, with established brands and newcomers alike seeing their traffic increase as consumer headwinds lead some to shift their discretionary spend towards more affordable indulgences. But past visit growth does not necessarily indicate future opportunity – it may instead signal market saturation. Relying solely on overall visit trends to guide expansion could lead chains into highly competitive markets where existing supply already meets demand.
For example, analyzing traffic trends in 10 major metro areas where coffee visits increased year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2026 reveals significant gaps between overall traffic trends and per-location demand. In some CBSAs, overall traffic growth significantly outpaced per-location traffic trends – suggesting that supply is already meeting (or exceeding) demand and limiting room for new coffee locations despite overall category growth. But in other metro areas, where overall visit growth appears smaller, per-location traffic is actually booming – indicating that the underlying demand is resilient enough to support additional coffee concepts.
These patterns highlight the importance of looking beyond topline growth to identify where true whitespace still exists.
Effective site selection matches both regional and local demographics to a brand’s target customer, supporting performance and reinforcing positioning. But even in well-aligned metros, results depend on site-level precision – locations where the trade area visitor profile most closely reflects the brand’s core audience are best positioned to drive incremental upside.
An analysis of Alo locations in the DC area suggests that the company is adopting this strategy. Within the already high-income metro area of Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, individual Alo Yoga stores are placed in centers that draw even more affluent visitors – maximizing the revenue potential of each location.
In fact, Alo's newest stores in the metro area – One Loudoun and Bethesda Row – drive traffic from households with higher median incomes than even the established area locations. This signals a clear focus on premium retail corridors and affluent consumer segments, which reinforces the brand’s positioning while capturing higher-spending customers at the site level.
Beyond driving traffic potential and demographic alignment, site selection should also ensure that a brand’s identity and operating model are well matched to the visitation patterns of prospective locations. Barnes & Noble offers a clear example. The company’s ongoing resurgence has relied in part on repositioning itself as a local cultural and social hub, with a stronger emphasis on local curation and community-driven events.
And analyzing Barnes & Noble’s 2026 openings shows a clear tilt toward centers with a higher share of local traffic than the chain average – supporting its shift away from a purely transactional retail model toward a more community-centric experience built around local curation, events, and repeat visitation. By prioritizing locally driven centers, the company’s site selection strategy not only captures relevant traffic but also reinforces its broader repositioning as a neighborhood-oriented brand.
Effective site selection recognizes that proximity to competitors can function as a demand driver, amplifying traffic rather than diluting it.
In practice, this often takes the form of clustering – deliberately locating near similar or complementary concepts to capture shared demand. Shake Shack provides a clear example. Analyzing the chain's store fleet shows that many locations sit near other QSR and fast-casual concepts, creating opportunities to capture dining-based traffic. At the same time, strong cross-visitation patterns indicate that these co-located brands share a common customer base, positioning the brand closer to consumers who are already likely to visit. And, at least for Shake Shack, this strategy appears to be working – traffic to the chain increased 19.9% YoY in Q1 2026.
Incorporating trade area analysis into site selection can also help determine whether a new location will generate new traffic or risk cannibalizing existing demand. Aldi, a rapidly expanding grocery chain, offers a relevant example.
The company opened a fourth Las Vegas store on S Decatur Blvd in October 2025, positioned between existing locations on W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd, approximately eight miles from each. And analyzing the core trade area of each of the four Las Vegas locations indicated limited visitor cannibalization over the last six months, despite the stores’ close proximity. Only 6.2% and 7.6% of the S Decatur Blvd store’s trade area overlapped with the W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd stores’ trade areas, respectively.
These findings show that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to store spacing – it varies by brand, category, and market. Analyzing a company’s existing store network alongside competitor density and overall demand can help determine how closely locations can be placed without hurting performance. In many cases – especially in high-frequency categories like grocery – markets can support stores that are closer together than expected.
Physical retail is increasingly defined by a small group of dominant players – Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General – that span grocery, essentials, and discretionary categories at a scale no other retailers can match. These chains serve as bellwethers of consumer behavior, revealing where Americans are spending, how often they shop, and what drives their decisions. And understanding their visitation patterns sheds light on the key dynamics shaping both their performance and the broader blueprint for retail success in 2026.
Retail giants Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General continue to capture a growing share of brick-and-mortar visits nationwide.
• The share of physical retail traffic captured by these giants rose from 16.8% in 2019 to 17.5% in Q1 2026, signaling continued sector consolidation.
• The scale advantage enjoyed by retail giants is increasingly self-reinforcing: Larger players benefit from superior data, stronger vendor leverage, and operational efficiencies that in turn further widen the gap.
• As these advantages compound, direct competition becomes less viable. Instead, smaller retailers should focus on owning specific trip missions – such as convenience, fill-in, or discovery – where format, assortment curation, and in-store experience can more directly shape consumer choice.
• For CRE operators, the growing dominance of these retail giants increases reliance on top-tier anchors, potentially driving performance gaps between centers with strong national tenants and those without.
• For CPG companies, the consolidation in the offline retail space heightens channel concentration, making success with a handful of large retailers critical while increasing those retailers’ negotiating leverage.
Traffic trends across the four giants reveal meaningful divergence in performance.
• Costco and Dollar General are driving the strongest visit growth, supported by both substantial fleet expansions and rising visits per location. In 2025, visits per store exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 18.1% for Costco and 10.2% for Dollar General, with both brands also seeing steady increases in their share of total brick-and-mortar retail chain visits.
• Walmart remains the largest player by far, accounting for 9.7% of traffic to major brick-and-mortar chains in 2025. And though the behemoth’s share of visits declined slightly in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, it has held steady over the past three years.
• Target’s visit share has remained relatively flat over the past three years, reflecting stalled momentum. Still, early 2026 trends point to emerging signs of recovery – with Q1 visits up 8.3% compared to Q1 2019.
• Value retail is winning, but in more specialized forms: Dollar General (extreme value + convenience) and Costco (bulk value + loyalty) are driving the strongest traffic growth and rising visits per store, while Walmart’s broad “everyday value” remains steady with slower growth. Target, for its part, is lagging – likely a reflection of the broader bifurcation in retail which has left middle-market players caught between consumers trading down to value and those trading up to quality.
• For retailers and CPG companies, the broader lesson is that value perception is becoming more nuanced. It’s no longer just about offering low prices at scale, but about how value is delivered – whether through small packs vs. bulk, or quick trips vs. stock-up missions. Success increasingly depends on prioritizing these distinct value formats and investing in channels where store-level productivity is improving.
• For CRE operators, the outperformance of retailers with clearly defined value propositions underscores the importance of mission-driven tenant mix. As shoppers visit with increasingly specific missions in mind, retailers that cater to those missions are outperforming. Tenant strategies should reflect this shift, ensuring complementary offerings that reinforce a cohesive shopping mission.
Walmart remains the dominant brick-and-mortar retailer nationwide and across all fifty states. Still, the data suggests there is room for multiple runners-up to succeed across geographies and customer segments.
• Dollar General, Target, and Costco each attract distinct audience segments. Dollar General attracts a disproportionately high share of the “Mature and Retired Living” segment, while Costco leads among family households, with Target also over-indexing with this group. Among younger “Contemporary Households,” meanwhile – a segment encompassing singles, married couples without children, and non-family households – Target commands the highest share, slightly over-indexing compared to the nationwide baseline.
• Regional strengths vary significantly, with Dollar General concentrated in the South, Costco dominant in the Northwest, and Target showing more dispersed areas of strength.
• Despite similar overall visit share, Dollar General leads in more states (26 vs. 17 for Target), reflecting broader geographic dominance.
• For retailers, the data suggests that growth opportunities are increasingly shaped by localized demographic and geographic dynamics – meaning that targeted, market-specific strategies may be more effective than uniform national approaches.
• Younger “Contemporary Households” remain less locked-in than older demographics, representing a key battleground for future growth.
• For CPG companies, this data highlights that channel strategy is really about building the right mix of retailers, since even large national players reach different types of consumers.
• CRE operators should ask "which anchor is right for this trade area" rather than "which anchor is strongest," as mismatched tenants can underperform even if they’re nationally dominant.
After remaining essentially flat in 2025, average visits per location to Walmart grew 3.5% YoY in Q1 2026. And the retailer’s solid Q1 performance across the U.S. underscores its unique ability to resonate across income levels, geographies, and shopping missions.
• Walmart posted year-over-year visit growth across nearly all U.S. markets in Q1 2026, reinforcing its role as a universally relevant retailer.
• The giant’s comparative softness in small parts of the Northeast suggests an opportunity to double down on region-specific assortments, urban-friendly formats, or partnerships to better match local shopping behaviors.
• Walmart’s broad-based growth shows that even as consumers are increasingly willing to visit multiple retailers to get what they want, its Superstore model has solidified its role as a primary stop on the American shopping journey – making it a uniquely reliable anchor for CRE operators.
• For smaller retailers, this underscores the opportunity to win the “second stop” – capturing trips through curated assortments and more tailored in-store experiences that Walmart’s scale is less optimized to deliver.
• For CPG companies, Walmart stands out as a highly attractive partner for broad, efficient reach, given its consistent traffic across markets.
Target’s recent performance suggests early momentum in reversing prior softness.
• Q1 2026 visits to Target rose 5.1% year over year, marking the chain’s first positive visit growth in more than a year, and suggesting that the chain’s new turnaround strategy may be bearing fruit.
• Gains were driven primarily by visits lasting 30 to 45 minutes, which accounted for 19.6% of overall visits to Target in Q1 2026 – pointing to stronger in-store engagement rather than quick, mission-driven stops.
• Target’s return to traffic growth – driven by increases in mid-length trips – signals a sustainable recovery on the horizon, strengthening its reliability as a traffic-driving tenant for CRE operators.
• Target's turnaround shows retailers how increasing shopper engagement can generate growth by converting quick trips into higher-value, multi-category experiences.
• For CPG companies, the rise in mid-length visits indicates a more receptive in-store environment for discovery and trade-up, making Target an increasingly attractive channel for innovation, merchandising, and premium offerings.
Dollar General is becoming embedded in consumers’ daily routines.
• Visitor frequency to Dollar General is on the rise. In Q1 2026, nearly a quarter of visitors frequented the chain at least four times in an average month, up from 21.2% in Q1 2022.
• Dollar General is becoming increasingly local in nature: As its footprint expands, more visits originate nearby, with 28.0% coming from within one mile – reinforcing its role as a neighborhood store of choice.
• Dollar General’s visitation patterns point to a growing ownership of the convenience mission. Its expanding store density is creating a self-reinforcing network effect, where proximity fuels frequency, and frequency strengthens long-term defensibility.
• For retailers, Dollar General’s rising share of nearby and high-frequency visits shows that proximity can drive habit, making convenience a powerful lever for building repeat behavior.
• For CRE operators, the data highlights the strength of hyper-local, necessity-driven traffic, positioning Dollar General as a stable tenant that anchors consistent, repeat visitation.
• For CPG professionals, the increase in frequent trips signals a high-velocity purchase environment, favoring smaller pack sizes and products that align with regular replenishment cycles.
Costco continues to grow and diversify its audience despite higher membership fees and stricter food court access policies, highlighting the strength of its value proposition and loyalty model.
• In September 2024, Costco raised its membership fees for the first time in seven years – and more recently tightened enforcement of member-only access to its food courts. Despite these changes, visitation has remained strong, highlighting the company’s pricing power and deep customer loyalty.
• At the same time, Costco’s shopper base is broadening, with median household income trending slightly downward while remaining relatively affluent.
• Offering strong value to a relatively affluent consumer base can be a winning formula in 2026. Retailers that combine quality, trust, and perceived savings – rather than competing solely on low prices – are well positioned to drive both loyalty and sustained traffic growth.
• For CRE operators, Costco’s sustained traffic growth and broadening shopper base reinforce its value as a standalone, high-demand traffic magnet that can anchor entire trade areas and drive surrounding retail development.
• For CPG companies, the combination of high traffic and declining median HHI signals that Costco is evolving into a scaled channel reaching beyond affluent shoppers, requiring more diversified assortment and pricing strategies.
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It’s been decades since the U.S. last hosted the World Cup, and anticipation continues to build. While the matches themselves will deliver thrilling moments for fans inside the stadium, a far broader audience is expected to engage from beyond the gates – gathering at bars, watch parties, and living rooms across the country.
Drawing on insights from recent sporting and cultural events, this analysis examines how the World Cup may impact consumer behavior and audiences across stadiums, host cities, and nationwide.
In 2025, MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ hosted a wide range of concerts and sporting events. And an examination of three – Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s tour stop, the FIFA Club World Cup Final, and a Week 17 New York Jets matchup against division rivals and the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots – reveals clear differences in audience composition across event types.
Trade area analysis showed that the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Final drew the largest share of single visitors and the highest median household income (HHI) of the three events – a pattern that could reflect the premium tickets and travel typically associated with a quadrennial championship match.
With the 2026 World Cup elevating the level of global competition, stadiums set to host matches this summer – including MetLife – may see even more dramatic shifts in their audience relative to other events.
While spectators attending World Cup matches are likely to differ from those drawn to other events throughout the year, audience shifts are likely to occur also within the tournament itself. As the competition progresses and the stakes rise, the visitor profile at host stadiums may trend progressively higher-income, as suggested by an analysis of Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA during the recent NFL season and Super Bowl.
During the Super Bowl, the stadium’s captured market median HHI surpassed that of every 49ers home game during the 2025-26 season – a pattern consistent with the event’s premium ticket pricing, national draw, and high levels of out-of-market travel.
And since the World Cup only takes place every four years, and necessitates international travel for die-hard fans, attendees are likely to be even more affluent than Super Bowl go-ers. Moreover, as the tournament reaches its later stages, each match becomes more significant and carries the potential to drive an even more affluent in-person audience.
Diving deeper into last year’s FIFA Club World Cup Final and Semifinal matches at MetLife Stadium provides further insight into the significance of the in-person audience that doesn’t make it into the stands. While FIFA generally places restrictions on tailgating, the behavior was still observed at MetLife and several other tournament venues in 2025. To put the phenomenon into perspective, location intelligence indicates that on the day of the Club World Cup final, combined visits to MetLife and its parking lots were 24.8% higher than visits to the stadium alone.
AI-powered trade area analysis further contextualizes the economic significance of this audience. During the semifinal matches, MetLife Stadium’s captured market median HHI remained nearly identical – just over $100K – with and without parking lot visitors. A similar pattern held for the Final, where median HHI for both the stadium-only and combined stadium-plus-parking visitors both rose above $115K, with the stadium-only figure only marginally higher.
This suggests that tailgaters represent a significant cohort with discretionary income to spend on the broader match-day experience, even if they opt out of spending big money on tickets.
With tailgating during the 2026 World Cup likely to remain limited due to FIFA regulations, the spending power of fans just outside the stadiums could create opportunities for alternative forms of engagement. Fan zones and other nearby hospitality events may offer effective ways to capture demand.
Nearby dining and entertainment venues are among the most accessible experiences for fans in the stadium area, and these stand to benefit significantly from elevated game-day foot traffic.
Analysis of recent FIFA Club World Cup matches reveals the impact of match-day activity on local businesses. Visitor journey data from the June 25th, 2025 matchup between Inter Milan and River Plate at Seattle’s Lumen Field, and the June 28th, 2025 meeting between Palmeiras and Botafogo at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia reveals that a significant share of stadium visitors also stopped at nearby dining and recreation venues on the day. Location intelligence also shows that, on the day of the match, each stadium-adjacent venue received a significant visit boost compared to its 2025 daily average.
This pattern underscores the potential impact of the World Cup on the surrounding commercial ecosystem. The stadium may anchor the experience, but fan engagement will likely spill into adjacent areas – creating opportunities for both organizers and local businesses. To take full advantage, restaurants and bars can position themselves as fan-friendly destinations through watch parties, extended hours, and even mobile or outdoor offerings in stadium corridors.
Previous major sporting events – including the Super Bowl – demonstrate that the impact of large-scale sporting moments often extends beyond the immediate stadium vicinity into the broader regional economy.
In the weeks leading up to the latest Super Bowl in Santa Clara, CA on February 8th, 2026, both the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkley and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CBSAs saw a notable uptick in year-over-year dining traffic – outperforming the nationwide average. The timing suggests that early-arriving travellers combined with locals enjoying pre-event concerts and events helped fuel demand. In contrast, nationwide dining traffic saw a more pronounced lift the following week – likely tied to Valentine’s Day on February 14.
This pattern indicates that regions hosting – or located near – World Cup 2026 matches could experience similar pre-event dining tailwinds. As out-of-town visitors arrive and local engagement builds in the days and weeks leading up to key matches, restaurants and hospitality may benefit from elevated demand – particularly when supported by ancillary events and fan experiences.
Other recent examples suggest that cities hosting major events like the World Cup stand to benefit from an influx of out-of-town visitors – particularly those with higher spending power.
Since the beginning of 2025, New Orleans has hosted a series of popular events that drove significant non-local traffic. AI-powered trade area data indicates that during these periods, out-of-market visitors consistently exhibited a higher median HHI than both local residents and typical commuters into the city.
As expected, the 2025 Super Bowl generated the most pronounced spike in out-of-market visitor median HHI among the events analyzed, but the pattern extends beyond one-time spectacles. Recurring events like Mardi Gras and major music festivals also attracted high-income visitors to the city – likely benefitting the local hospitality, dining, and retail industries.
Looking ahead to the 2026 World Cup, host cities are likely to experience a similar dynamic. The tournament’s global draw will likely bring affluent travelers with discretionary dollars to the host regions – visitors that will spend not only on match tickets, but also on accommodation, dining, and shopping. By sponsoring tournament-related festivals, concerts, and experiences in or near retail corridors, cities can amplify the economic impact of the World Cup beyond the stadium.
The impact of the 2026 World Cup is unlikely to be confined to the select cities hosting matches. Major sporting events drive large-scale at-home viewership, generating ripple effects nationwide.
The Super Bowl offers a useful benchmark. In the days leading up to February 8th, 2026, visits to grocery stores and pizza chains rose above day-of-week averages for 2025, ultimately peaking on the day of the big game day as households appeared to pick up last-minute fixings and takeout for their watch parties.
This pattern indicates that the World Cup – with its extended schedule and multiple high-stakes matchups – could drive repeated waves of elevated grocery and take-out demand as fans gather together throughout the tournament.
Of course, at-home viewing is just one piece of the match-day equation. Many fans opt for a more communal experience – gathering at sports bars across the country to watch the game alongside fellow supporters.
Recent highly-anticipated soccer matches offer a clear signal of this behavior. During the recent Allstate Continental Clásico, MLS Cup Final, and SheBelieves Cup Final, top sports bars in key markets like Los Angeles and Miami recorded visit spikes above day-of-week averages.
Not every World Cup fan will be able to attend in-person or travel to a host city, but previous match-day lifts in sports bar traffic demonstrate that fans nationwide will participate in the tournament experience.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to engage a wide spectrum of fans – from casual viewers at home to dedicated supporters traveling to stadiums – shaping how and where demand emerges.
As a result, the tournament’s impact will be felt across multiple layers of retail, dining, and tourism. Stadium-centered spending, activity in surrounding corridors, host-city consumer demand, and gatherings of spectators nationwide all point to a broad and interconnected World Cup effect that is likely to shape both audience composition and behavior at scale.
