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Malls ended summer with a bang. In May and June 2024, indoor malls, open-air shopping centers and outlet malls all experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, with indoor malls – which offer an escape from the sweltering heat – leading the way.
In July 2024, all three mall types experienced slight YoY visit gaps. But these were likely due to a calendar shift rather than to any flagging back-to-school momentum: July 2024 contained one less Saturday and Sunday than the equivalent period of 2023, when malls draw some of their biggest crowds. (In January-August 2024, weekends accounted for 39.0% of visits to indoor malls, 35.6% for open-air shopping centers, and 43.0% for outlet malls.) This shift, which likely had the most pronounced impact on outlet malls, may have obscured stronger YoY performance in July 2024.
And this year’s intense weather didn’t stop consumers from visiting malls in droves to take advantage of back-to-school shopping – which was in full swing by August 2024. That month saw the most substantial YoY foot traffic growth of the analyzed period, with YoY visit increases of 7.3% for indoor malls, 5.8% for open-air shopping centers, and 6.1% for outlet malls.
Who shopped at malls in August 2024? With back-to-school shopping being a significant motivator for consumers, it may come as no surprise that college students and families with children were overrepresented among end-of-summer mall hoppers – though not for all mall types.
Analysis of all three mall segments’ captured markets reveals that in August 2024, the share of college students in the trade areas of indoor malls and open-air shopping centers exceeded the nationwide average by 67% and 170%, respectively. These malls may be popular with college students due to their greater accessibility for students without cars, and for their recreational atmosphere – making them a good place to catch up with friends while shopping.
Meanwhile, the captured markets of outlet malls included slightly higher-than-average shares of households with children, perhaps as families on tight back-to-school budgets prioritized steep discounts. Indoor malls were also slightly more likely than average to draw this demographic.
With Summer 2024 in the books, it’s fair to say that mall foot traffic thrived during this critical retail season. How will mall visits shape up come spring?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
In 2024, auto parts retailers are continuing to see visit growth compared to last year. We dove into the data for three of the industry’s leaders – AutoZone, O’Reilly Auto Parts, and NAPA Auto Parts – to explore the consumer behavior and profiles behind the space’s ongoing success.
Auto parts retail visits have been bolstered in recent months by still-high vehicle prices – which have incentivized many cash-strapped consumers to fix up the car they have rather than buy a new one. To be sure, the industry hasn’t been entirely spared the effects of inflation, which has caused many consumers to tighten their (seat)belts and defer non-essential car repairs. Still, one of the key factors benefiting the space has been the greater prevalence of older vehicles on the road, which are more likely to need significant – and essential – maintenance.
Since the start of 2024, AutoZone and O’Reilly have sustained consistent year-over-year (YoY) monthly visit growth. And though NAPA saw mild visit gaps in March, June, and August – coinciding with traffic fall-off to some of the repair shops it supplies – it too experienced YoY increases throughout most of the analyzed period.
As auto parts inflation continues to wane in 2024, more consumers may begin taking on repairs they postponed last year, providing these retailers with continued foot traffic boosts.
Less affluent consumers are more likely to be deterred from buying a new ride by high prices and interest rates. And analyzing the demographic characteristics of visitors to AutoZone, O’Reilly, and NAPA reveals that in H1 2024, the median household incomes (HHIs) of the chains’ captured markets were indeed significantly lower than those of new car dealerships ($75.6K).
The data reveals a divide between consumers in the market for new cars – who generally have higher income levels – and those that frequent auto parts retailers to invest in their current set of wheels. And consumers seeking to repair rather than replace may be even more inclined to do so while vehicle prices and financing costs remain elevated.
Analysis of consumer spending habits provides a further indication that AutoZone, O’Reilly and NAPA’s audiences are more likely to invest in upgrades and repairs than in the purchase of a new vehicle.
In H1 2024, residents of AutoZone and O’Reilly’s captured markets spent 17% less annually on buying used cars than the nationwide average, while residents of NAPA’s captured market spent 14% less.
And residents of all three auto parts retailers’ trade areas spent even less on new car buying. In H1 2024, AutoZone’s captured market spent 23% less on new cars than the nationwide average, and O’Reilly’s and NAPA’s captured markets spent 22% and 18% less, respectively.
AutoZone and O’Reilly’s relatively large share of DIY consumers – those who repair or upgrade their cars on their own to save money – likely contributed to their trade areas’ smaller car buying expenditures. Meanwhile, the slightly larger spend on both new and used cars in NAPA’s trade area – though still significantly lower than the nationwide average – may be due to the retailer’s predominantly commercial business.
Auto parts chains have been riding strong tailwinds on the road to success – and they appear geared up for more foot traffic success in the homestretch of 2024. As more older vehicles stay on the road and car-buying costs remain high, robust demand for parts is likely to continue.
Will the auto parts industry accelerate even further in the months to come? Visit Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
It’s that time of year again. On August 22nd, Starbucks launched its much-vaunted autumn menu, including the iconic Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL). We dove into the data to see what happened on the big day – and how Starbucks visitation patterns were impacted by the much-anticipated release.
Last year, Starbucks broke with tradition to move its PSL launch from Tuesday to Thursday. And perhaps due to Thursday’s proximity to the weekend (especially in the age of the TGIF work week), the step has proven advantageous – generating a sustained visit spike lasting through the weekend.
On Thursday, August 22nd, 2024, foot traffic to Starbucks surged 24.1% higher than the coffee giant’s daily average for the previous eight Thursdays. And the PSL effect worked its magic throughout the weekend, with visits to Starbucks on the following Friday, Saturday, and Sunday significantly elevated compared to recent daily averages for those days of the week.
Since its debut in 2003, Starbucks’ PSL has become part of the cultural landscape. Each year, the beverage’s release generates a social media frenzy. And between 2021 and 2023, the number of people visiting Starbucks on Pumpkin Spice Latte launch day increased steadily.
Last year, the PSL visit spike reached new heights, with foot traffic 27.1% higher than on August 27th, 2019 – the last pre-pandemic PSL launch. And despite Starbucks’ recent challenges, visits on PSL day held steady this year, maintaining last year’s impressive gains.
Comparing visits on August 22nd, 2024 to recent Thursday visit averages across the continental U.S. highlights the broad appeal enjoyed by Starbucks’ fall menu. Every analyzed state enjoyed a visit bump – though the extent of the boost varied considerably between regions.
Many southern states – including Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi, saw only slight foot traffic bumps, perhaps due in part to the region’s warmer weather, which may render the early autumn launch less compelling. (Mississippi in particular, it seems, really couldn’t care less about Pumpkin Spice.) But in other areas, led by North Dakota (45.5%), Kansas (42.6%), Utah (42.2%), Iowa (41.3%), and Pennsylvania (39.5%), visits skyrocketed.
Starbucks’ successful PSL launch shows that even as consumers count their pennies, people are finding room in their budgets for sweet, cozy indulgences that don’t break the bank. What does the winning release portend for the upcoming winter season?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven dining and retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Back-to-school shopping is a major driver of retail visits and sales – and this year, spending on the upcoming school year was set to be the second-highest on record. So with the frenzy winding down, we took a look at how several key retail categories and chains performed during this important season.
Overall, retail rallied throughout July and August, with weekly visits to major back-to-school categories – including superstores, department stores, and other apparel retailers – mainly outperforming last year’s visit levels. Though department stores and apparel chains saw very slight YoY declines in late July, all the analyzed categories enjoyed YoY boosts beginning the week of August 5th. And since the back-to-school season is traditionally a high-traffic period, the ability of these categories to sustain YoY growth is particularly impressive.
Digging deeper into individual brands reveals substantial visit boosts at superstores Target and Walmart and warehouse membership club Costco.
Target, already enjoying positive momentum from summer sales events, drove visits even higher with steep discounts on essential back-to-school items. In addition to attracting parents on the hunt for kids’ school supplies, Target has emerged as a favorite destination for college students seeking to load up on dorm decor and other collegian necessities. And between the weeks of July 9th, 2024 and August 19th, 2024, the retailer saw weekly visits jump a remarkable 9.7% to 20.8% compared to a year-to-date (YTD) weekly average. Walmart and Costco, too, saw significant visit boosts in July August, as they drew crowds with discount and bulk offerings.
The strong performance of these retailers during the back-to-school season bodes well as they head into the critical holiday shopping period. With momentum on their side, Target, Walmart, and Costco are poised to capitalize on their competitive pricing and value offerings, potentially driving another period of robust growth.
Back-to-school often means outfitting kids and teens with new clothing, and off-price retailers – including Burlington, Marshalls, Ross, and T.J. Maxx – are reaping the benefits. With a reputation for low prices and everything from apparel to backpacks, these chains are popular choices for the back-to-school crowd. And this year, weekly visits to these retailers got a significant boost, with August 19th foot traffic up 11.0% at Burlington, 13.9% at Marshalls, 6.0% at Ross, and 15.8% at T.J. Maxx, compared to a YTD weekly average.
Superstores, department stores, and apparel retailers aren’t the only ones to benefit from the back-to-school craze – office supply stores, predictably, also experience major boosts. While weekly visits to Office Depot, OfficeMax (both owned by The ODP Corporation), and Staples had lagged behind the chains’ year-to-date (YTD) weekly visit averages during April and May, they began to recover in early July. By August, visits were surging, with the week of August 19th showing increases of 24.4% for Office Depot, 32.7% for OfficeMax, and 39.2% for Staples.
Getting a pair of new shoes for school is another time-honored tradition – and DICK’s Sporting Goods has heeded the call with massive markdowns. The chain drew back-to-school shoe and apparel shoppers with a major 50%-off sale, and visits jumped significantly – peaking during the week of August 12th at 40.5% above a January 1st, 2024 baseline.
Hibbett, meanwhile, supercharged its back-to-school campaign with discounts and free children’s haircuts, offered between July 28th and August 25th at different locations. And the events boosted foot traffic dramatically, with the week of July 29th seeing a whopping 76.1% visit increase compared to a January 1st, 2024 baseline. Though visits to both sporting goods chains began to taper off as August wore on, they remained elevated – serving as a reminder of the power of back-to-school shopping and sales.
Back-to-school season remains one of the most important shopping periods of the year, with significant consumer demand drawing visit growth across major retail categories.
Can these retailers continue drawing on this momentum into the holiday season?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail news.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
In July & August 2024, Placer.ai released multiple white papers: Los Angeles Office Trends in 2024, Q2 2024 – Retail & Restaurant Review, Domestic Tourism Trends in NYC and LA, 2024 Hotel Visit Trends, Emerging Trends for CRE in 2024, and Retail Giants in 2024: Walmart, Costco, and Target's Competitive Edge.
Below is a taste of our findings from two white papers: 2024 Hotel Visit Trends and Retail Giants in 2024: Walmart, Costco, and Target's Competitive Edge. The two white papers take a look at the visitation data to explore how leading hotel chains are driving visits in 2024, as well as exploring how Walmart, Costco, and Target are maintaining their success.
The pandemic and economic headwinds that marked the past few years presented the multi-billion dollar hotel industry with significant challenges. But five years later, the industry is rallying – and some hotel segments are showing significant growth.
Overall, visits to hotels were 4.3% lower in Q2 2024 than in Q2 2019 (pre-pandemic). But this metric only tells part of the story. A deeper dive into the data shows that each hotel tier has been on a more nuanced recovery trajectory.
Economy chains – those offering the most basic accommodations at the lowest prices – saw visits down 24.6% in Q2 2024 compared to pre-pandemic – likely due in part to hotel closures that have plagued the tier in recent years. Though these chains were initially less impacted by the pandemic, they were dealt a significant blow by inflation – and have seen visits decline over the past three years. As hotels that cater to the most price-sensitive guests, these chains are particularly vulnerable to rising costs, and the first to suffer when consumer confidence takes a hit.
Luxury Hotels, on the other hand, have seen accelerated visit growth over the past year – and have succeeded in closing their pre-pandemic visit gap. Upscale chains, too, saw Q2 2024 visits on par with Q2 2019 levels. As tiers that serve wealthier guests with more disposable income, Luxury and Upscale Hotels are continuing to thrive in the face of headwinds.
But it is the Upper Midscale level – a tier that includes brands like Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Fairfield by Marriott, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Hampton by Hilton – that has experienced the most robust visit growth compared to pre-pandemic. In Q2 2024, Upper Midscale Hotels drew 3.5% more visits than in Q2 2019. And during last year’s peak season (Q3 2023), Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest visit boost of any analyzed tier.
Analyzing the captured markets* of Upper Midscale chains Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Fairfield by Marriott, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Hampton by Hilton with demographics from STI: Popstats (2023) shows variance in the relative affluence of their visitor bases.
Fairfield by Marriott drew visitors from areas with a median household income (HHI) of $84.0K in H1 2024, well above the nationwide average of $76.1K. Hampton by Hilton and Trademark Collection by Wyndham, for their parts, drew guests from areas with respective HHIs of $79.6K and $78.5K – just above the nationwide average. Meanwhile, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts drew visitors from areas below the nationwide average.
But all four brands saw increases in the median HHIs of their captured markets over the past five years. This provides a further indication that it is wealthier consumers – those who have had to cut back less in the face of inflation – who are driving hotel recovery in 2024.
(*A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice.)
Walmart, Target, and Costco are three of the country’s most popular retailers, drawing millions of shoppers each day. Each has distinct strengths that cater to their unique customer bases, helping them thrive in a competitive market.
Costco’s wholesale club model led the way in H1 2024, with consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth ranging from 6.1% in January 2024 to 13.3% in June. Walmart followed closely, with YoY foot traffic growth during all but two months. Target had a slower start, with visits below 2023 levels from January to April, and a 3.7% decline in YoY comparable sales. However, visits rebounded in May (2.5%), June (8.9%), and July (4.7%). This renewed growth bodes well for Target, especially as the back-to-school season ramps up.
For all three chains, Q2 2024’s visit success was likely bolstered by summer deals and intensifying price wars aimed at attracting inflation-weary consumers back to the store.
While inflation is cooling, prices remain high, and discount and dollar stores are increasingly challenging Walmart, Target, and Costco. Many customers, especially those of more modest means, are drawn to the rock-bottom prices at dollar stores.
Analysis of cross-shopping patterns shows that a growing share of Walmart, Target, and Costco visitors also frequent Dollar Tree regularly. In Q2 2019, between 9.8% and 13.7% of visitors to these retailers visited Dollar Tree at least three times, but by Q2 2024, that share rose to 16.7%-21.6%.
Dollar Tree is capitalizing on this interest. Over the past year, it added 350 Dollar Tree locations while closing nearly 400 Family Dollar stores. The chain also acquired leases for 170 99 Cents Only Stores, gaining access to customers who buy everything from groceries to household goods. As Dollar Tree expands its footprint and food offerings, it poses a growing challenge to Walmart, Target, and Costco.
Read the full reports to discover more hotel and superstore insights. For more data-driven consumer research, visit our resource library.
Big Lots – the big-box discount store offering everything from snacks to higher-ticket items like furniture and mattresses – recently announced a major rightsizing initiative. Against the backdrop of declining sales, the company disclosed its intention to shutter up to 315 stores in coming months.
We dove into the data to explore some of the factors that may be impacting Big Lots’ store closure decisions – and to see which chains stand to benefit the most from Big Lots’ big move.
Store closures mean major markdowns – and the some 280 Big Lots locations already slated to close are drawing crowds with big sales. Analyzing monthly visit fluctuations at Big Lots shows that the shuttering locations experienced an impressive 19.2% month-over-month (MoM) visit spike in July 2024, even as the chain as a whole saw just a 1.9% uptick. Customers, it seems, are flocking to the stores on the chopping block to snag high-ticket items at even steeper discounts.
Rightsizing is all about fleet optimization – trimming underperforming locations and retaining those stores best equipped to meet the needs of a chain’s evolving customer base. And identifying common denominators among stores slated for closure can shed light on the considerations informing a retailer’s rightsizing strategy.
Analyzing the median household incomes (HHIs) of Big Lots’ closing locations' captured markets shows that the retailer is shuttering stores that serve more affluent consumers than the chain as a whole. Nationwide, for example, Big Lots drew visitors from areas with a median HHI of $65.5K in H1 2024. But the Big Lots slated for closure drew shoppers from areas with a median HHI of $73.5K. This pattern repeated itself across major markets where Big Lots is reducing its footprint – including Ohio, Florida, Washington, California, and Arizona.
Big Lots has noted a revitalization strategy focused on value and even more extreme bargain offerings. And the decision to shutter stores in more affluent areas may reflect a move by the retailer to lean into its core audience of price-conscious shoppers – though higher HHI customers can still benefit from the chain’s value offerings.
As Big Lots reduces its fleet, shoppers will naturally seek out alternatives. But which chains are best poised to reap the benefits? Cross-shopping data shows, unsurprisingly, that the vast majority of Big Lots visitors also frequent superstores – especially Walmart. In Q2 2024, a whopping 92.3% of Big Lots visitors nationwide stopped by a Walmart – compared to 52.7% for Target and just 20.8% for Costco.
But shopping behaviors vary significantly between regions. And zooming in on California, where Big Lots plans to close a majority of its 109 locations, paints a different picture. Golden State Big Lots shoppers, to be sure, also visit Walmart in high numbers (74.6% in Q2 2024). But they are much more likely than nationwide visitors to the chain to frequent Target and Costco. Given Big Lots’ significant fleet reduction in California, these two chains appear well-positioned to acquire some of this new regional business.
And drilling down even deeper into the habits of California shoppers at Big Lots, Walmart, Target, and Costco shows that of the three retail giants, Costco may be especially well-positioned to benefit from Big Lots’ Golden State closures.
Like Big Lots, Costco draws a high share of visits during the mornings and afternoons – with just over 50.0% of 10:00 AM - 8:00 PM visits taking place between 10:00 AM and 3:00 PM. As Big Lots’ California footprint contracts, some of these mid-day shoppers may hop over to Costco, which is also bustling during these hours.
Rightsizing creates opportunities – both for chains taking proactive steps to optimize their fleets, and for competitors seeking to pick up extra business. How will Big Lots’ big rightsizing move continue to play out in the months ahead?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
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Coffee’s success in 2025 offers several key lessons for dining operators across categories:
1. Strategic expansion into under-penetrated regions can supercharge growth. YoY visits to coffee chains are growing fastest in areas of the Southeast and Sunbelt where the category still accounts for a relatively low share of dining visits.
2. Pairing craveable products with genuinely human, personalized service can build durable loyalty. Aroma Joe’s proves that when standout offerings are combined with warm, consistent personal touches, brands can create habit loops that drive repeat visits even in crowded markets.
3. Prioritizing hyper-efficient convenience models can unlock meaningful growth. Scooter’s Coffee demonstrates that fast, reliable, frictionless experiences can materially increase traffic while supporting rapid expansion.
4. Building recurring limited-time rituals can create predictable demand spikes and deepen engagement. From the annual Pumpkin Spice Latte launch to Jackpot Day, coffee chains show that ritualized promotions can “own the calendar,” generating predictable traffic spikes and deepening emotional engagement.
5. Using scarce, hype-driven offerings can generate high-impact moments that shift behavior. Starbucks’ Bearista drop illustrates how limited, buzzworthy merchandise or products can not only spike visits but also shift customer behavior, driving traffic outside typical dayparts.
6. Leveraging cultural collaborations can create excitement without relying on discounts. Dunkin’s Wicked partnership shows that tapping into moments in pop culture can deliver multi-day visit lifts comparable to major promotions – often without relying on giveaways.
Coffee has become one of the most resilient and inventive corners of the U.S. food and beverage industry. Even as consumers wrestle with higher prices and trim discretionary spending, they continue to show up for cold foam, caffeinated boosts, and treat-worthy daily indulgences.
Throughout 2025, coffee chains saw consistent year-over-year (YoY) quarterly visit growth, as brands from Starbucks to 7 Brew expanded their footprints. Crucially, per-location category-wide traffic also remained close to 2024 levels throughout most of the year before trending upward heading into the holiday season – showing that this expansion has not diluted demand at existing coffee shop locations.
What’s fueling coffee’s ongoing momentum? Which strategies are helping leading chains accelerate despite this year’s headwinds? And what can operators across dining categories learn from coffee’s success?
This white paper dives into the data to reveal the strategies behind coffee’s standout performance – and how they can help dining concepts across segments succeed in 2026.
Analyzing market-level (DMA) dining traffic data reveals that coffee chains are prioritizing growth in markets with lighter competition – and this formula is paying off.
In the graphic below, the top map shows the share of dining visits commanded by coffee in each DMA, while the bottom map highlights the year-over-year (YoY) change in visits to the coffee category. Perhaps unsurprisingly, markets where coffee already commands a high share of dining visits (specifically on the West Coast and in the Northeast) are seeing the softest year-over-year performance, while DMAs with lower coffee penetration are delivering the strongest visit growth.
In other words, traditional coffee markets such as Northwestern metros– where competition is high and incremental gains are harder to capture – are no longer the primary engines of category momentum. Instead, coffee visits are growing fastest across the Southeast, Sun Belt, and Texas – regions where branded coffee still represents a relatively small share of dining visits. Operators across dining segments can learn from coffee's approach and identify markets with low category penetration to lean into those whitespace opportunities.
But geography is only part of the story. And the coffee segment shows that a strong concept that delivers on fundamentals – great products and exceptional service – can thrive even in tougher coffee markets such as the northeast.
The experience of expanding Northeastern chain Aroma Joe’s shows how pairing craveable beverages with an unusually personal service model can drive visit growth even in relatively hard-to-break-into regions.
Aroma Joe’s, a rapidly-expanding coffee chain headquartered in Maine, with over 125 locations, has become something of a local obsession: Customers rave about the chain’s addictive signature beverages – as well as the feel-good atmosphere cultivated by its warm, friendly staff. And this combination of human touch and product quality creates a powerful habit loop: In October 2025, nearly one quarter of visitors to Aroma Joe’s stopped at the chain at least four times during the month – a much higher loyalty rate than that seen by other leading coffee brands.
The takeaway: Craveable products paired with exceptional service can create a scalable loyalty engine.
Another key differentiator for the coffee sector is convenience. Drive-thrus have become ubiquitous across the category, with many of the fastest-growing upstarts embracing drive-thru only models and legacy leaders also leaning more heavily into the format.
Scooter’s Coffee – named for its core promise to help customers “scoot” in and out quickly – exemplifies this advantage. In Q3 2025, the chain posted a 3.1% YoY increase in average visits per location, even as it continued to scale its footprint. And its customers averaged a dwell time of just 7.3 minutes – significantly lower than other leading coffee chains, including other drive-thru-forward peers.
By delivering consistently quick experiences without compromising quality, Scooter’s has emerged as a traffic leader in the coffee space – demonstrating the power of efficiency to drive demand.
No category has mastered the “event-ization” of the menu quite like coffee – and few brands own the category’s calendar as effectively as Starbucks. The annual return of the Pumpkin Spice Latte has become a cultural milestone that marks the unofficial start of fall for millions, driving double-digit visit spikes and shaping seasonal traffic patterns.
And the importance of the event only continues to grow. On August 26th, 2025, PSL day drove a 19.5% spike in traffic compared to the prior ten-week average – a higher relative spike than that seen in 2024 or 2023.
But this playbook isn’t reserved for mega-brands. 7 Brew’s monthly Jackpot Day, held on the 7th of each month, shows how recurring promotions can also build anticipation and deliver repeatable traffic lifts for up-and-coming concepts.
Beginning in August 2025, Jackpot Day shifted from a limited “Jackpot Hour” to an all-day activation. That month’s offer – two medium drinks for $8 plus a Kindness wristband – generated a 47.1% lift versus an average Thursday. And in subsequent months, giveaways ranging from tote bags to footballs kept the excitement going, sustaining elevated visits each time the 7th rolled around.
These rituals create emotional consistency: Customers know when to expect something special and plan around it. Dining chains beyond the coffee space can also create dependable spikes in traffic by implementing recurring, ritualized LTOs that create an emotional calendar and keep customers engaged.
Offering recurring LTOs is one way to keep customers consistently engaged. But one-time, limited-edition merch drops can create even bigger visit surges. Starbucks’ much-hyped “Bearista” launch this November is a prime example: Customers lined up nationwide for the chance to buy – not receive – an adorable, limited-edition, bear-shaped reusable cup. And despite its hefty $30 price tag, the merch drop drove a massive nationwide visit spike, making it the chain’s biggest sales day ever and fueling additional momentum leading into Red Cup Day.
And location data shows that this kind of hype-driven, scarce merchandise can shift not just visitor volume but daypart behavior. Visits surged as early as 4:00 AM as FOMO-driven customers showed up at the crack of dawn to secure a bear. And the shift toward early morning visits (though not quite as early) continued the following day as stores quickly ran out of stock.
Starbucks' Bearista frenzy suggests that scarcity isn’t just a retail tactic – it’s a powerful behavioral trigger that restaurants can harness as well. Limited-run items, exclusive merch drops, or time-bound specials can generate excitement, pull visits forward, and reshape daypart patterns in ways traditional promotions rarely do.
Cultural tie-ins add another accelerant. In November, Dunkin’ launched its Wicked collaboration alongside its holiday menu, generating a significant multi-day traffic spike – achieved, like Bearista, without giveaways. The event leaned on playful thematic branding, seasonal flavors, and limited-run items that tapped into Wicked fandom.
Dunkin's Wicked surge shows that when executed well, cultural relevance can also significantly move the needle. Other dining segments may also lean into thoughtful collabs to create outsized excitement and traffic lift – even without deep discounts or free offers.
The coffee sector’s 2025 performance offers a blueprint for dining success: Chains are expanding smartly into underpenetrated regions, successfully implementing both hyper-efficient and hyper-personal service models, using recurring LTOs to build seasonal and monthly rituals, and leveraging merch and pop culture partnerships to reshape demand.
Together, these strategies provide a practical playbook for dining brands to increase visit frequency, deepen customer commitment, and capture new growth opportunities in 2026 and beyond.
Five metros from across the United States stand out for consumer momentum going into 2026: Salt Lake City (UT), Reno (NV), Indianapolis (IN), Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (FL), and Raleigh-Durham (NC). All five metro areas saw their populations increase by more than the average U.S. metro between 2023 and 2024, and year-over-year (YoY) retail and dining traffic trends outpaced the nationwide average.
Utah is one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S. The state’s population has grown steadily for more than two decades with unemployment remaining consistently below the nationwide average, with one of the youngest workforces in the country. According to some analysts, the median household income in Utah, when adjusted for cost of living, is the highest in the nation.
All of this positions Salt Lake City – the state’s capital – as a particularly attractive market heading into 2026. Location analytics show year-over-year increases in foot traffic across many neighborhoods, from established retail hubs like Sugar House and Downtown SLC to the more mixed-use Central City and primarily residential areas such as The Avenues and East Bench. The city also serves as a gateway to a diverse mix of audiences, attracting younger residents and commuters as well as affluent families who come into the city to shop, dine, and enjoy local attractions.
Salt Lake City’s diversity in age and household composition as well as Utah's strong homeownership culture – even among younger cohorts – creates opportunities for retail and dining chains across categories. Home-forward concepts are particularly poised to outperform, as shown by recent location analytics. Traffic to furniture & home furnishing chains increased 7.4% YoY in the Salt Lake City DMA compared to a 2.5% increase nationwide, and grocery stores and home improvement retailers outperformed in the market as well. These trends point to a solid market for retailers tied to home life – from furniture and décor to everyday grocery needs –driven not only by steady population growth and household spending, but also by a local culture that places strong emphasis on family and the home.
While Salt Lake City continues to build on its strong foundation, another Western city is quietly gaining momentum. Reno, Nevada, which is often viewed as a regional gaming-town, is increasingly emerging as a dynamic travel destination in its own right.
In 2024 Washoe County (including the city of Reno) welcomed approximately 3.8 million visitors whose spending of about $3.4 billion generated a total economic impact of $5.2 billion. This growth signals a robust visitor-economy that supports roughly 43,800 jobs and generates over $420 million in state and local tax revenue.
What makes this particularly compelling is that while Las Vegas, Nevada is facing mounting pressures from increasing costs, the Reno-Tahoe region is showing stronger resilience thanks in part to a drive-market model and diversified appeal. Analyzing the traffic data shows that visits from non-residents, and non-employees to downtown Reno have increased YoY for the past three years. And though Reno may be thought of as a vacation spot for older Gen X and Baby Boomer vacationers, the data also indicates that Singles & Starters –"young singles starting out and some starter families living a city lifestyle" – make up an increasingly large share of Reno's visitor base.
This generational diversification carries important implications for both retail and real estate investment. As younger visitors drive up spending in food, entertainment, and shopping centers, the market is poised for renewed urban energy – fueling redevelopment across downtown corridors and mixed-use projects. With strategic public–private investments and an expanding visitor economy, Reno stands out as a market to watch in 2026, combining strong fundamentals with emerging demographic momentum.
The Midwest also contains several metro areas on the rise. Large-scale manufacturing projects like Intel’s $20 billion chip plants and Honda and LG Energy Solution’s EV battery facility are spurring housing and retail expansion around Columbus, Ohio. Kansas City, Missouri, is benefiting from logistics growth and projected tourism growth linked to its role as a FIFA World Cup 2026 host city. And Madison, Wisconsin, is seeing steady consumer growth is supported by its diverse tech and biotech economy.
But Indianapolis, Indiana tops the charts in terms of YoY overall retail visit growth between May and October 2025 (+4.3%, see first chart). And much of the consumer traffic in the Indianapolis DMA consists of suburban and rural households – precisely the segments that many retailers are now trying to woo.
Family-friendly retailers and dining chains are particularly well positioned to thrive in Indiana heading into 2026. Indianapolis has some of the best job prospects and most affordable home prices in the country – and its favorable salary to cost of living ratio likely allows many families to have leftover income left over for discretionary spending.
Recent data shows that a range of family-oriented brands – from Chili’s and Marshall’s to Kroger – have outperformed in Indianapolis over the past six months. The city’s growing middle-income population and its suburban, family-focused consumer base appear to be fueling stronger in-person spending, particularly at convenient, affordable, and community-oriented retail and dining destinations.
Moving east to North Carolina brings several additional growing metros into focus, including Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, and Charlotte. But Raleigh rises above the pack with its powerful combination of job growth, steady in-migration, and a well-balanced, diversified economy.
All this is leading to YoY increases in total traffic within the Raleigh-Durham, NC DMA, driven in part by major firms – including entrants in finance and life-sciences – continuing to expand operations in the area. The city of Raleigh also has relatively low median age and relatively high median household income. This combination of robust job creation, wage gains, and a growing pool of young, high-spending residents positions Raleigh as one of the most dynamic consumer markets in the Southeast heading into 2026.
Raleigh's consumer growth potential is particularly stark when looking at performance of major mixed-use developments across the region. Foot traffic at leading projects such as Smoky Hollow, the Main District at North Hills Street, and Fenton in Cary has climbed sharply.
The data also shows that these destinations attract a disproportionately high share of wealthy singles and one-person households – a demographic with strong discretionary spending power. Together, these trends point to a deepening base of urban, high-income consumers fueling growth in dining, retail, and entertainment – making Raleigh one of the country's most dynamic and opportunity-rich metro areas heading into 2026.
In the Southeast, Tampa is one of the nation’s standout metro areas heading into 2026. Strong fundamentals – such as no state income tax and expanding employment in sectors like technology, healthcare, and logistics – have attracted a significant influx of Gen Z and millennial residents. And although in-migration is beginning to slow somewhat, the city's expanding economy and youthful talent base continue to fuel growth across housing, retail, and dining.
And as more companies require employees to spend additional days in the office, YoY commuter traffic has increased across Tampa’s major cities. Leisure visits from non-residents are also on the rise, suggesting that retailers and dining chains seeking to capture this expanding market could benefit from growing their presence throughout the Tampa metro area.
Rising traffic across Tampa’s major urban areas appears to be translating into stronger dining activity as well. Over the past six months, average YoY visits to Tampa area full-service restaurants, coffee shops, and fast-casual chains have all exceeded the national average, which may reflect a broader acceleration in both local workforce and leisure-visitor demand.
1. Retail is deeply divided. Visits to value and luxury apparel segments grew YoY in 2025 while traffic to mid-tier retailers flagged.
2. Upscale dining momentum reflects similar bifurcation. More resilient, affluent consumers are bolstering fine-dining traffic.
3. Authenticity is key. Brands successfully executing on a clear sense of purpose – from community-driven grocers to bookstores – are driving consistent visit growth.
4. Online and offline retail are converging into a seamless ecosystem. As consumers seek online value and in-person convenience, AI fulfillment, dark stores, and local pickup are accelerating.
5. Digitally native brands expanding into physical retail are redefining omnichannel. These chains provide a blueprint for merging digital efficiency with personalized in-store experiences.
6. Traditionally urban brands are shifting to suburbia to capture new audiences. With consumers rooted in hybrid lifestyles and growing suburban demand, chains that adapt their footprints drive fresh traffic.
7. Expansion into college markets and celebrity pop-ups are helping retailers and malls connect with younger consumers. Brands that grew their footprints in college towns or on campuses increased their Gen Z traffic, as did malls that hosted celebrity or influencer activations.
Retail and dining faced another complex year in 2025. Persistent economic headwinds and uncertainty surrounding tariffs intensified consumers’ focus on value, even as affluent shoppers continued to indulge in luxury brands and upscale dining experiences.
Yet the year also revealed behavioral shifts that extended beyond price sensitivity. Shoppers increasingly prioritized brands that convey authenticity and a clear sense of purpose – those that deliver value not only through price, but through omnichannel convenience, product quality, and brand ethos.
For their part, retailers and malls continued to evolve, adopting strategies to capture both the expanding suburban market and a rising generation of younger consumers emerging as a defining force in retail.
How have these trends evolved, and how will they shape the retail landscape in 2026? We dove into the data to find out.
The first three quarters of 2025 underscored a widening divide in the apparel sector, with strength at both ends of the price and income spectrums.
Off-price retailers and thrift stores, which draw shoppers from lower- and middle-income trade areas, gained significant ground – reflecting consumers’ ongoing search for value and treasure-hunt experiences that feel both economical and rewarding. At the same time, luxury maintained modest growth, showing that high-income shoppers remain resilient and willing to spend on premium experiences. Meanwhile, traditional apparel and mid-tier department stores continued to see visit declines, signaling further pressure on the retail middle. Retailers such as Target and Kohl’s, traditional staples of this middle segment, are contending with the challenge of defining their identity to consumers in a market increasingly split between value and luxury.
Looking ahead to 2026, mid-tier retailers will need to navigate a complex and polarized landscape. Without the clear positioning enjoyed by value and luxury players, success will require sharper differentiation and disciplined execution. But though the middle remains a tough place to compete, it still holds potential: Brands that can redefine relevance – something many of these same chains achieved just a few years ago – stand to capture consumers with spending power.
A similar bifurcation dynamic is also unfolding in the dining sector.
Upscale full-service restaurants (FSRs) are outperforming their casual dining counterparts, as higher-income consumers – and those dining out for special occasions – seek elevated experiences at fine-dining chains.
At the same time, more cost-conscious diners are trading down from casual dining FSRs to fast-casual chains, which continue to outperform the casual dining segment. Fast-casual brands are also benefiting from trading up within the limited-service segment, as consumers who choose to eat out – rather than eat at home or grab a lower-cost prepared meal at a c-store or grocery – opt for more experiences that feel more premium yet remain accessible.
Across both retail and dining, bifurcation doesn’t tell the whole story. Even as spending concentrates at the high and low ends of the market, a growing number of brands are succeeding by delivering an experience that feels intentional, distinctive, and true to their identity. These concepts share a clear raison d’être – a sense of purpose that resonates with consumers – as well as successful execution. The data shows that brands providing this kind of “on-point” experience are driving consistent visit growth in 2025, signaling that authenticity may be important retail currency in 2026.
Trader Joe’s sustained momentum reflects its ability to make shopping feel like discovery. The chain’s locally-inspired assortments, roughly 80% private-label mix, and steady rotation of seasonal products keep visits fresh and engagement high.
Sprouts, for its part, continues to benefit from a sharpened identity centered on freshness, sustainability, and health. Its smaller-format stores, curated product mix, and messaging around healthy living have helped it build a loyal base of wellness‐oriented shoppers.
Meanwhile, Barnes & Noble’s transformation offers a compelling case study in the power of experience. Its strategy of empowering local managers to curate store selections and host community events has turned stores into cultural touchpoints – driving increased visits and dwell times.
All three brands derive their strength from their clarity of purpose – illustrating how authenticity and intentionality are becoming meaningful factors shaping consumer engagement.
Authenticity isn’t limited to national names. Regional players such as H-E-B and In-N-Out Burger demonstrate how deeply ingrained local identity can translate into sustained growth.
H-E-B’s community-driven ethos, local sourcing, and operational excellence have built trust across Texas markets, helping it remain one of the country’s most beloved grocery chains, with high rates of shoppers visiting multiple times a month. And in the quick-service category, California-native In-N-Out Burger stands out for its quality, nostalgia, and mystique, as the chain continues to attract visitation trends that exceed national QSR benchmarks.
These brands demonstrate that authenticity can have a local element. Their success reflects not just product strength or efficiency, but a deeper connection to the communities they serve.
While regional and experience-driven brands continue to build deep consumer connections, the broader retail landscape is also being reshaped by operational innovation. As technology and infrastructure improve, retailers are finding new ways to merge digital efficiency with convenient physical touchpoints.
E-commerce growth and in-store activity are increasingly interconnected. Visits to ecommerce distribution centers* climbed steadily between October 2021 and September 2025, while the share of short, under-10-minute trips to big-box chains Target, Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club also increased. Together, these patterns suggest that while online shopping continues to expand, consumers remain highly engaged with physical locations through buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) and same-day fulfillment channels – combining the value of online deals with the convenience of quick, local pickup.
This trend also reflects ongoing advancements in AI-driven fulfillment and Walmart’s testing of dark stores – retail spaces converted into local fulfillment hubs that accelerate delivery and enable quick customer pickup. These innovations are shortening fulfillment windows while optimizing store networks for hybrid demand.
As retailers continue to blur the boundaries between digital and physical commerce in 2026, expect them to become increasingly complementary parts of a single, omnichannel ecosystem.
*The Placer.ai E-commerce Distribution Center Index measures foot traffic across more than 400 distribution centers nationwide, including facilities operated by leading retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target. Designed as a barometer for U.S. e-commerce activity, the index captures two key audiences: employees, estimated through dwell-time patterns, and visitors, who often represent logistics partners delivering raw materials, moving in-process goods, or collecting finished products.
The resurgence of digitally native brands embracing physical retail underscores how online and offline strategies are converging into an integrated model, combining digital efficiency with the benefits of a physical presence.
Framebridge, a DTC custom framing brand, offers a clear example of this trend. As the brand has expanded its footprint, the average number of monthly visits to each of its locations rose sharply throughout 2025.
Framebridge’s success lies in its well-executed omnichannel model. Customers can place orders online or in store, with the option to ship directly to their homes or pick up in person.
But for Framebridge, physical locations aren’t just about convenience. Art and memories are often one of a kind, so having knowledgeable staff in store and the opportunity to engage with materials firsthand transforms a transaction into a personalized, consultative experience.
Framebridge exemplifies how digitally native brands are merging the ease of online shopping with physical spaces that provide a personal touch. And more digitally native brands, like Gymshark, are looking to bring their business offline with the hope of adding value for consumers.
As retailers advance their omnichannel strategies, another enduring shift is reshaping the retail map post-pandemic – the continued rise of suburban traffic. Brands that entered the pandemic with strong suburban footprints were among the first to benefit as in-person activity rebounded, while urban-focused chains that expanded outward have met migrating consumers and captured new audiences anchored in hybrid lifestyles and local shopping routines.
Large-format and drive-thru focused brands like Costco, Cava, and Dutch Bros. entered the pandemic era from a position of strength as they are traditionally situated in suburban and exurban areas. As consumers spent more time close to home and away from urban centers, these chains captured heightened local demand and saw visits rebound rapidly once in-person shopping resumed.
And as the pandemic reshaped consumer traffic patterns, brands like Shake Shack and Chipotle quickly recognized emerging opportunities in suburban markets and adjusted their strategies to capture this shifting demand. For Shake Shack – a brand once defined by its urban storefronts – the shift toward suburban drive-thrus and stand-alone locations represented a significant pivot. Chipotle followed a similar path, accelerating its suburban expansion through the rollout of “Chipotlane” drive-thru lanes.
Arriving somewhat later to the suburban landscape, sweetgreen, once synonymous with its urban footprint, opened its first drive-thru in 2022, and by 2024 had made suburban markets a core pillar of its growth strategy.
These real estate moves positioned all three brands to capture demand from remote and hybrid workers, helping sustain visit growth well above pre-pandemic baselines.
As suburban demand continues to grow, the suburbs will likely remain a critical growth frontier for many brands in the year ahead.
Investment in suburban markets underscores how changing market conditions and strategy adaptation can allow brands to meet consumers where they are. And a parallel trend is unfolding in college towns and youth-dense trade areas, where brands are channeling investment to capture rising Gen Z spending power.
Expansion in college-anchored markets, paired with celebrity and influencer-driven pop-ups, is helping retailers build cultural relevance and increase engagement with this emerging consumer base.
The graph below underscores how targeted expansion into college-anchored markets can meaningfully shift audience composition. Over the last several years, many brands have expanded their near-campus footprints – and in turn, attracted a higher share of the Spatial.ai:PersonaLive “Young Urban Singles” segment, one highly aligned with Gen Z consumers.
CAVA’s rapid unit growth, including openings near major universities and in college towns, helped the brand increase its share of “Young Urban Singles” within its captured trade areas between October 2018-September 2019 and October 2024-September 2025. Meanwhile, Panda Express and Raising Cane's, which already had relatively large shares of the segment six years ago, have also invested in college-adjacent locations, lifting their “Young Urban Singles” audience share.
Even legacy mass retailer Target benefited from small-format and large store expansions near universities – growing its captured market share of “Young Urban Singles”.
These shifts suggest that college towns will continue to be strategic growth markets, including for luxury brands like Hermès. By making inroads in college towns and with Gen Z shoppers, brands can strengthen loyalty early and build durable market share that remains as these young adults move on from campus life.
As Gen Z’s influence expands beyond campus borders, retail engagement is increasingly driven by cultural moments that resonate with this cohort. And malls are finding that temporary pop-ups including influencer collaborations and celebrity-led activations can attract these young consumers.
At The Grove, the Pandora pop-up with brand ambassador girl-group Katseye in October 2024 led to a modest but significant increase in the Gen Z-dominant “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” segments within the mall’s captured trade area during the first week of the activation – compared to the average for the last twelve months.
Similarly, at Westfield Century City, the Taylor Swift x TikTok activation from October 3rd-9th, 2025 – which allowed fans to immerse themselves in the sets from the viral “The Fate of Ophelia” music video boosted the shares of “Young Urban Singles” and Young Professionals”, underscoring the star power of everything Taylor Swift.
And at American Dream, the pattern extended beyond younger audiences. On September 5th and 6th, 2025, Ninja Kidz attended the grand opening of their Action Park while Salish Matters made an appearance at the mall on September 6th for her skincare pop-up – which drew such large crowds that it had to be shut down. During these two event days, the mall’s shares of both “Young Professionals” and “Ultra-Wealthy Families” increased substantially, highlighting that pop-up events can draw young and affluent family audiences.
Together, these examples reinforce that, in 2026, the integration of short-term pop-ups will continue to be a strategy for malls and individual brands to gain relevance for key demographic segments.
2025 reinforced that retail remains as dynamic as ever. Value continues to anchor decisions, but consumers are redefining what value means – blending price sensitivity with expectations for authenticity. And in the current retail landscape, online and physical retail are growing more interconnected as consumers demand convenience and experience.
In 2026, adaptability will be retailers’ greatest competitive edge. The next era of retail will belong to brands that can continue to refine their operating strategy – while staying true to a clear brand identity.
