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First Watch, Denny's, IHOP, and Applebee's improved their visitation metrics in Q2 2025 relative to Q1 2025.
First Watch increased its total visits by 13.7% year-over-year, fueled both by its ongoing expansion and by a notable 4.1% increase in average visits per location, signaling significant room for continued growth.
In contrast to First Watch's expansion, Denny's has been closing stores. Its smaller footprint led to a 4.9% dip in overall visits, but its remaining restaurants became significantly busier, with average visits per location up 5.1% year-over-year – suggesting that loyal customers are consolidating at its remaining stores
Meanwhile, Dine brands IHOP and Applebee's also improved their visitation trends. IHOP narrowed its overall visits and average visits per location declines while Applebee's turned its traffic dips into gains in Q2, with overall visits up 2.7% YoY and average visits per venue up 5.5% – perhaps thanks to Dine's marketing efforts around the brand.
Overall, the strong Q2 performance of these four chains highlights the resilience of the value-driven casual dining sector – and may indicate that consumers may be 'trading down' from more expensive restaurants while still seeking a sit-down experience.
While First Watch caters to a wealthier clientele (with median HHI of $88.7K compared to the nationwide baseline of $79.6K), it's the chains’ serving of lower-income areas – Applebee's, Denny's, and IHOP – that attract a higher share of frequent monthly visitors. This suggests that loyalty is not dictated by disposable income; instead, brands that offer reliability and affordability can become a go-to option for their customers, driving high visit frequency even in times of macroeconomic uncertainty.
The strong Q2 performance of these chains highlights the casual dining sector's resilience and reveals two distinct paths to success in today's economy. While First Watch thrives on aggressive expansion into higher-income areas, brands like Denny's and Applebee's prove that cultivating deep loyalty among a value-conscious base through affordability and optimization is an equally powerful and sustainable strategy.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
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CAVA started the year off strong with double-digit traffic increases between January and April 2025, but growth slowed down slightly towards the end of H1. Still, the chain capped off the quarter with a 8.7% YoY overall boost in visits in Q2 2025 while visits per location held essentially steady at -1.0% – suggesting that CAVA's expansion is not cannibalizing traffic from its existing venues.
Sweetgreen experienced similar traffic patterns, with overall visits up 8.6% YoY in Q2 2025 and a visit gap of 3.1% – a somewhat larger dip than CAVA's visits per location decline, though still a manageable figure for a brand in a heavy expansion phase.
While CAVA and sweetgreen share a lot of similarities, analyzing the YoY change in Q2 2025 visits by DMA highlights their different expansion philosophies. CAVA's strategy seems focused on market depth, where entry into new markets is part of a broader strategy of establishing and strengthening regional clusters. In contrast, sweetgreen's approach seems to prioritize nationwide breadth – a strategy underscored by its plans to enter three distinct geographically separate markets in 2025.
The map reflects the impact of these distinct strategies: In Q2 2025, CAVA's YoY visit growth is mostly concentrated in distinct geographic clusters, while sweetgreen's gains are more geographically dispersed across the country's major metropolitan areas.
The Q2 2025 visit growth of CAVA and sweetgreen demonstrates that multiple viable paths exist for scaling a premium fast-casual brand. While both approaches are currently driving significant overall growth, the crucial test ahead will be which strategy can better maintain store-level profitability and brand loyalty as they continue to scale.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Quick-service restaurants (QSRs) have had to work hard to stay competitive in 2025, contending with inflationary pressures, cautious consumer spending, and a wave of value-focused dining alternatives.
So with the year now more than halfway through, we analyzed location analytics for leading QSR players Yum! Brands, RBI, and Wendy’s to see which chains defied expectations in Q2 2025 – and how they managed to remain ahead of the curve.
Rising costs and growing competition have eroded fast food’s once-formidable value advantage. Convenience and grocery stores now offer more substantial dining options, giving budget-conscious consumers more reasons to look beyond traditional QSRs. Meanwhile, fast-casual brands and even some full-service restaurants (like Chili’s) have introduced more elevated dining experiences at price points close to fast-food levels.
Despite these challenges, Yum! Brands and RBI have remained resilient. Yum! Brands posted modest year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth in Q2 2025 – while RBI, whose domestic footprint contracted somewhat, saw a narrowing YoY visit gap. But both chains maintained average visits per location near last year’s levels, underscoring their ability to navigate a persistently tough environment.
What’s behind RBI’s narrowing visit gap?
Popeyes emerged as a bright spot in Q2 2025, with overall foot traffic rising by 0.6% despite a reduced domestic store count – and average visits per location climbing 2.2%. This marks a notable improvement from Q1, when traffic was down 3.2%. The chicken chain’s blend of innovation and value – from new chicken wing flavors in late 2024 and early 2025 to limited-time offers (LTOs) like the $6 Big Box – appears to be winning over diners.
Burger King, RBI’s most-visited chain, also contributed to the company’s improved traffic. The brand narrowed its YoY visit gap from 3.4% in Q1 to 2.1% in Q2, thanks in part to expanded value deals and timely tie-ins such as a How to Train Your Dragon-themed meal. Meanwhile, average visits per location at Burger King nearly matched 2024 levels, with the gap shrinking from 2.0% in Q1 to 0.2% in Q2.
Yum! Brands’ primary growth engine has been Taco Bell – by far the company’s largest U.S. banner. By frequently introducing new menu items while keeping an eye on affordability – through offerings like the expanded Luxe Cravings Box – Taco Bell has sustained its reputation as a top-value treat. And building on a strong Q1, the Mexican QSR giant saw overall foot traffic climb by 2.6% YoY in Q2, with average visits per location growing by 1.5% YoY.
Elsewhere in Yum!’s portfolio, KFC and Pizza Hut posted YoY visit gaps in Q2. Still, the two brands’ average-visit-per-location gaps remained modest, indicating that consumer demand remains healthy at existing stores despite some closures.
Wendy’s is another QSR relying on value deals and menu expansions to weather the sector’s choppy waters. After two years of steady YoY same-store sales growth in the U.S., Wendy’s recorded a 2.8% comp sales decline in Q1 2025, mirrored by a 3.4% dip in average visits per location.
But Wendy’s isn’t sitting still. In March, it updated its Frostys menu, followed in April by a crowd-pleasing Cajun Crunch Spicy Chicken Sandwich. Alongside its existing value menu, Wendy’s is also leveraging special promotions this summer – from free Frostys on July 20th (National Ice Cream Day) and free fries every “Fryday” to an upcoming “Meal of Misfortune” tied to the latest season of Netflix’s Wednesday. And though visits in Q2 2025 still trailed 2024 levels, Wendy’s consistently narrowing visit gap points to a potentially brighter outlook as the year progresses.
To succeed in 2025, QSRs must excel at both menu innovation and value – no easy feat – giving today’s savvy and budget-conscious consumers a compelling reason to spend. And though 2025 promises more headwinds, chains that effectively strike this balance may be well-positioned to thrive.
Follow Placer.ai/anchor for more data-driven dining insights.
Kohl’s emergence as a hot new meme stock wasn’t on anyone’s bingo card for 2025. The retailer has grappled with declining sales and ongoing leadership challenges, driving a steep drop in its share price over the past several years. But beyond the internet buzz, is there any real reason for optimism about Kohl’s outlook?
Despite recent setbacks, Kohl’s surprised investors in Q1 2025 with a smaller-than-expected 3.9% year-over-year (YoY) drop in comparable sales – fueling speculation that a turnaround might be in the works. The company’s foot traffic gap also narrowed to just 2.7% YoY in Q1, a notable improvement from the 6.0% gap in Q4 2024. In Q2 2025, too, Kohl’s visit-per-location gap remained relatively modest at 3.1%. But monthly YoY data showed substantial volatility, with June experiencing a sharp decline while March through May visits per location held close to last year’s levels.
All in all, Kohl’s clearly has a long way to go to reclaim its former glory – and it’s too soon to tell whether a comeback is indeed in the cards. But with the right strategy, the data does point to some underlying strength that may help the company regain its footing – meme stock or not.
For more data-driven retail analyses, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Pharmacies have weathered a challenging landscape in recent years, marked by shrinking drug margins, rising costs, and heightened competition from online retailers. Major industry leaders have had to rethink their strategies in response.
So with CVS Health set to report earnings later this month, we dove into the data to see how visits to the company’s eponymous pharmacy chain fared in Q2 2025. How have CVS’s rightsizing and optimization efforts impacted visitation? And what can location analytics reveal about some of the strategies that may drive further growth for the chain?
We dove into the data to find out.
CVS Pharmacy began 2025 on a high note. Despite hundreds of recent store closures, the chain posted steady year-over-year (YoY) visit growth throughout the first half of 2025, with only February seeing a slight dip due to the leap-year comparison.
In the first quarter of the year, CVS Health’s Pharmacy and Consumer Wellness segment reported an 11.1% jump in revenue – driven in part by a 6.7% rise in same-store prescription volume. This growth was reflected in the chain’s solid Q1 visit numbers – a momentum sustained into Q2 2025, when overall foot traffic rose 2.2% YoY and average visits per location saw an even more impressive 5.0% increase.
CVS's strong visit numbers appear to underscore the success of its rightsizing efforts, which have largely focused on optimizing the pharmacy and healthcare side of the business. In addition to closing hundreds of stores, CVS plans to open several smaller-format, pharmacy-first locations – as well as featuring limited over-the-counter offerings. The drugstore leader is also set to absorb prescription files from 625 closing Rite Aid locations, in addition to acquiring 64 of its physical stores.
CVS's pharmacy-focused strategy comes amid softening demand for its front store business – including items like cosmetics, candy, greeting cards, and other over-the-counter products – which saw a 2.4% revenue decline in Q1 2025. Yet location analytics show that these non-medical offerings remain an important traffic driver for CVS – especially during key retail milestones.
In the first half of 2025, for example, Valentine’s Day (February 14th) was CVS's busiest day of the year to date, registering a 39.2% surge in visits compared to the chain’s year-to-date (YTD) daily average and a 26.3% boost compared to an average Friday. Other holidays, including Mother’s Day and Father’s Day, sparked smaller but still significant upticks, as shoppers stopped by for gifts and cards.
CVS’s 2025 visit numbers suggest the chain is adeptly navigating pharmacy’s choppy waters – staying nimble and capitalizing on opportunities as they arise. Will the pharmacy leader continue to thrive in the months ahead?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
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In my last column for The Anchor, I debuted a new quarterly series, entitled “All The Things I Think I Think About Retail Over The Last Quarter.”
Well, another quarter has come and gone, so that means it is time to dust off the shelves and scorecard past predictions as well as to signal what is most top of mind at present.
So, first, the scorecard. Loyal readers of my first column will remember these predictions:
It has only been three months since I put a stake in the ground on all of them, but on the “Nailed It/Too Early To Tell/Dead Wrong” scale, I am feeling pretty darn good about most of the above.
It is way too early to tell on Macy’s, Bloomie’s, and Wayfair. Same goes for Sam’s Club and Sprouts. And, as much as I would like to take a victory lap on these last two especially, the proof will be in the pudding much more down the road. Though I still am feeling like all six will break my way soon.
Finally, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Kohl’s. Kohl’s is such a dumpster fire (meme stock, anyone?) that the very same above prediction is also likely in play for whomever gets chosen as Ashley Buchanan’s ultimate successor.
All of which leads me to…
Over the last quarter, Costco and Target have been a tale of two retailers. One stood strong on DEI, while the other kowtowed to public pressure. Both companies stated their contrasting positions publicly this past January, and the traffic results speak for themselves..
Costco has emerged unscathed, as predicted, while Target now faces concerns that it could become the next Kmart or Sears (and for a whole host of reasons beyond DEI).
The biggest takeaway for me, however?
No matter your personal opinions on DEI, the most important thing retail executives have to ask themselves is, “What matters most to our brand?”
Target and Brian Cornell forgot this one important question. They didn’t do their homework, and thereby took their fingers off the pulse of the Target customer, and clearly the customer has been voting with his or her feet.
It will likely take a regime change with a clear stated purpose to get them back.
I missed on Starbucks, and, frankly, I am kind of pissed about it. I was thrilled when Starbucks’ new CEO Brian Niccol announced his intentions to enliven the in-store Starbucks experience. His promise of “4 Minutes or Less” wait times and his introduction of ceramic mugs had me at Frappuccino.
But then something interesting happened on the way to the coffee roaster.
First, few, if any, baristas have ever offered me a ceramic mug at checkout. Plus, the experience of drinking my coffee in said ceramic mug actually adds more friction to the overall Starbucks’ experience because you still have to go back and wait in line to take your coffee to go.
Second, the wait time promise has also fallen flat. When Niccol first made the announcement, I would go into Starbucks, order at the counter, track the wait time on my phone, and, without fail, get served my coffee in under four minutes. I even proudly shared my improved wait time experiences on social media.
I bought into Brian Niccol’s java-flavored Kool-Aid hook, line, and sinker, but, as much it pains me to admit it, I also forgot one important axiom of retailing – never judge anything out-of-the-gate (which, side note, is also why, in contrast, I have not jumped on the Richard Dickson at Gap Inc. bandwagon yet, too).
Any initial promise for Starbucks in Q1 was quickly overshadowed by Starbucks’ Q2 results. Starbucks same-store sales fell for the fifth straight quarter, with U.S. same-store sales down 2%.
Shame on me. I should have known better.
When running stores, it is easy to get store teams behind anything for a short period of time. I simply made the call too early and now worry the pendulum may be swinging back entirely. Part and parcel, people appear to be spending less time, not more time, in Starbucks since the regime change, which doesn’t bode well.
Any Kool-Aid drinking, whether it be for Niccol, for Dickson, or, as Target CEO Brian Cornell has received during his tenure, should always be reserved until one is sure that results are sustainable.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
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Indoor malls and open-air centers have posted consistent YoY visit growth, outlet declines have been modest, and early 2026 data shows renewed momentum across all three formats.
Growth in short visits and extended stays – alongside declines in mid-length trips – shows that consumers are gravitating toward trips with a clear purpose, favoring either efficiency or immersion.
Rising dwell times and strong engagement from younger, contemporary households position indoor malls as leading destinations for longer, experience-driven trips.
A higher share of short, weekday visits – along with strong appeal among affluent families – underscores their role as convenient, essential retail hubs.
As off-price and online alternatives erode their treasure-hunt advantage and long-distance visitation softens, outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal.
The malls that thrive will be those that intentionally optimize for convenience, experience, or a disciplined integration of both.
Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the “dead mall” narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving.
What can location analytics tell us about the state of the mall in 2026? Which trends and audiences are driving their performance – and how can operators and retailers best capitalize on the opportunities within the category?
Over the past two years, both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth. And while outlet malls experienced slight declines, the pullback was modest – signaling a period of stability rather than erosion.
Early 2026 data also points to continued momentum, with all three mall formats recording mid-single-digit YoY traffic gains in the first two months of the year. Although it’s still early days – and YoY comparisons in 2026 were boosted by an additional Saturday – the positive start suggests that the industry is entering the year on a solid footing.
With e-commerce always within reach, hybrid work anchoring more consumers at home, and ongoing economic uncertainty influencing spending decisions, trips to physical stores are becoming more intentional. Shopping center visit data reflects this shift as well, with growth in both quick convenience visits and extended experiential outings – alongside a decline in mid-length trips.
In 2025, quick trips (under 30 minutes) increased across all formats, underscoring malls’ growing role as convenient, high-utility destinations for picking up an online order, grabbing a quick bite, or making a targeted purchase. At the same time, extended visits of more than 75 minutes increased at indoor malls and open-air centers, reflecting sustained appetite for immersive, experiential outings.
Meanwhile, mid-length visits (between 30 and 75 minutes) lagged across formats – falling indoor malls and outlet malls and remaining flat at open-air centers – suggesting shoppers are losing patience with undifferentiated trips that lack a clear purpose.
Still, although short visits increased year over year across all mall types, and long visits increased for both indoor malls and open-air centers, the distribution of dwell time varies by format. Short visits make up a larger share of traffic at open-air shopping centers, for example, while longer visits account for a greater share at indoor malls. This divergence underscores the need for format-specific strategies, with operators clearly defining the core shoppers and missions they are best suited to serve and aligning tenant mix, amenities, and marketing accordingly.
Indoor malls, for instance, have increasingly positioned themselves as experiential hubs – particularly for younger consumers. Recent survey data shows that 57% of shoppers aged 18 to 34 report visiting a mall frequently or often, and they are more likely than older cohorts to arrive without a specific purchase in mind.
Foot traffic patterns reinforce this experiential appeal. In 2025, 37.6% of indoor mall visits lasted more than 75 minutes, compared to 33.4% for open-air centers and 34.6% for outlets. Indoor malls also captured the largest share of visits from the young-skewing “contemporary households” segment – singles, non-family households, and young couples without children – indicating strong resonance with younger audiences.
As indoor malls expand their experiential offerings, visit durations are rising even further – even as they hold steady or even slightly decline at other formats. For operators, this shift highlights a significant opportunity for indoor malls to deepen their role as climate-controlled third places. And for brands, it means high-impact access to Gen Z consumers in discovery mode – top-of-funnel engagement that is increasingly difficult and expensive to replicate through digital channels alone.
If indoor malls excel at capturing extended, social visits, open-air centers are finding success through convenience. In 2025, open-air centers had the highest shares of both weekday visits (64.0%) and short, sub-30 minutes (36.8%) among the three formats. Grocery anchors, superstores, and essential-service tenants like gyms – more common at open-air centers than at other formats – help drive steady, non-discretionary traffic.
Demographically, open-air centers drew the highest share of affluent families, a key demographic for daily errands. This alignment with higher-income households, combined with weekday consistency, positions open-air centers as reliable errand hubs embedded in community life.
Outlet malls, for their part, have historically differentiated themselves by offering something shoppers couldn’t find elsewhere: an experiential treasure hunt featuring brand-name merchandise at compelling prices. But the decline in long visits shown above suggests that this positioning may be coming under pressure – likely from the rise of off-price and discount chains as well as other low-cost, convenient treasure-hunt alternatives like thrift stores. When shoppers can score attractive deals online or browse for bargains at a nearby T.J. Maxx or Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, the incentive to dedicate time and travel to an outlet trip may no longer feel as compelling – especially for outlet malls’ core audience, which includes meaningful contingents of middle and lower-income consumers with families.
And data points to a subtle but steady erosion in the share of visitors willing to go the extra mile to visit outlet malls. Since 2023, the share of outlet visits from consumers traveling more than 30 miles has slipped from 33.1% to 31.8%, even as long-distance visits to other mall formats have remained relatively stable. This softening of destination demand may be contributing to outlets’ recent traffic lags.
Still, despite these lags in foot traffic, major outlet companies continue to see YoY increases in same-center tenant sales per square foot. The format’s strong visit start to 2026 also suggests that outlets still have significant draw – and that with the right strategy, they could reinvigorate their traffic trends.
One option is for outlet malls to lean further into their immediate trade areas: Nearly 20% of visits to outlets already originate within five miles – a share that edged up from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.9% in 2025. These closer shoppers may be largely responsible for the segment’s rise in short visits, pointing to an opportunity to further augment BOPIS offerings and select essential-use tenants.
Another option is to strengthen outlets’ destination appeal with distinctive retail, dining, and experiential offerings that resonate with value-oriented, larger-household shoppers. But whether they focus on convenience or on justifying the journey – or attempt to balance both – success will depend on identifying who their shoppers are and which missions they are best positioned to own.
As in other areas of retail, shopping center success increasingly depends on strategic clarity. The malls that thrive will be those that clearly define their role in their customers’ lives and execute against it with intention – whether by decisively optimizing for efficiency, fully investing in experience, or thoughtfully integrating both.
Commercial real estate in 2026 is characterized by differentiated performance across markets and asset types. Office recovery trajectories vary meaningfully by metro, retail performance reflects format-specific resilience, and domestic migration patterns continue to influence long-term demand fundamentals.
Many higher-income metros continue to trail 2019 benchmarks but drive the strongest Year-over-year gains, signaling a potential inflection in office utilization trends.
• Sunbelt markets along with New York, NY are closest to pre-pandemic office visit levels, while many coastal gateway and tech-heavy markets trail 2019 benchmarks.
• Many of the metros still furthest below pre-pandemic levels are now posting the strongest year-over-year gains.
• Leasing velocity may accelerate in coastal markets – particularly in high-quality assets – even if full recovery remains distant. The expansion of AI-driven firms and innovation-focused employers could support incremental demand in these ecosystems, reinforcing a bifurcation between top-tier buildings and the broader office inventory.
• Higher-income metros such as San Francisco show deeper structural gaps vs 2019, perhaps due to their higher concentration of hybrid-eligible workers – yet those same metros are driving the strongest YoY recovery in 2025.
• Accelerating growth in 2025 suggests that shifting employer policies, workplace enhancements, or broader labor dynamics may be beginning to drive increased in-office activity.
• Office performance in higher-income markets will increasingly depend on workplace quality and policy alignment. Assets that support premium amenities, modern design, and tenants implementing clear in-office expectations are likely to influence sustained office visits and leasing velocity in these metros.
Retail traffic is broadly improving across states, though performance varies by region and format.
• Retail traffic growth is broad-based, with the majority of states showing year-over-year gains in shopping center traffic in 2025.
• Still, even as many states are posting gains, pockets of softer performance remain – specifically in parts of the Southeast and Midwest.
• Broad-based traffic gains indicate consumer demand is more durable than anticipated. In growth states, operators can shift from defensive stabilization to capturing upside – pushing rents, upgrading tenant quality, and accelerating leasing while momentum holds. In softer markets, the focus should remain on protecting traffic through strong anchors and necessity-driven tenancy.
• Convenience-oriented formats are leading traffic growth, with strip/convenience centers materially outperforming all other shopping center types, and neighborhood and community centers also posting gains. This reinforces the strength of proximity-driven, daily-needs retail.
• Destination retail formats, including regional malls and factory outlets, continue to lag, while super-regional malls were essentially flat. Larger-format, discretionary-driven centers are not capturing the same momentum as convenience-based formats.
• The data suggests that consumer behavior continues to favor convenience, frequency, and necessity over destination-based shopping. Operators should lean into service-oriented and daily-needs tenancy in strip and neighborhood formats, while mall operators may need to further reposition assets toward experiential, mixed-use, or non-retail uses to stabilize traffic.
Domestic migration continues to reshape state-level demand, with gains clustering in select growth corridors.
• Domestic migration drove population gains in parts of the Southeast and Northern Plains, while several Western and Northeastern states show flat or negative migration.
• Some previously strong in-migration states in the South and West, including Texas and Utah, are showing softer movement, while other established migration leaders such as Florida and the Carolinas continue to attract net inbound residents.
• Migration flows are shifting relative to prior years. Operators should temper growth assumptions in states where inflows are slowing and prioritize markets where inbound demand remains strong.
• Florida dominates metro-level migration growth, with eight of the top ten U.S. metros for net domestic migration are in Florida.
• The markets with the strongest domestic migration-driven population gains are not major gateway cities but smaller, often retirement- or lifestyle-oriented metros, suggesting that migration-driven demand is increasingly flowing to secondary markets.
• CRE operators should prioritize expansion, leasing, and site selection in high-growth secondary metros where population inflows can directly translate into retail spending, housing absorption, and service demand.
1. Expanded grocery supply is increasing overall category engagement. New locations and deeper food assortments across formats are bringing shoppers into the category more often, rather than fragmenting demand.
2. Grocery visit growth is being driven by low- and middle-income households. Elevated food costs are leading to more frequent, budget-conscious trips, reinforcing grocery’s role as a non-discretionary category.
3. Short, frequent trips are a major driver of brick-and-mortar traffic growth. Fill-in shopping, deal-seeking, and omnichannel behaviors are pushing visit frequency higher, even as trip duration declines.
4. Scale is accelerating consolidation among large grocery chains. Larger retailers are using their size to invest in value, assortment, private label, and execution, allowing them to capture longer and more engaged shopping trips.
5. Both large and small grocers have viable paths to growth. Large chains are winning by competing for the full grocery list, while smaller banners can grow by specializing, owning specific missions, or offering compelling value that earns them a place in shoppers’ routines.
While much of the retail conversation going into 2026 focused on discretionary spending pressure, digital substitution, and higher-income consumers as the primary drivers of growth, grocery foot traffic tells a different story.
Rather than being diluted by new formats or eroded by e-commerce, brick-and-mortar grocery engagement is expanding. Visits are rising even as grocery supply spreads across wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. At the same time, growth is being powered not by affluent trade areas, but by low- and middle-income households navigating higher food costs through more frequent, targeted trips. Shoppers are showing up more often and increasingly splitting their trips across retailers based on value, availability, and mission – pushing grocers to compete for portions of the grocery list instead of the full weekly basket.
The data also suggests that the largest grocery chains are capturing a disproportionate share of rising grocery demand – but the multi-trip nature of grocery shopping in 2026 means that smaller banners can still drive traffic growth. By strengthening their value proposition, specializing in specific products, or owning specific shopping missions, these smaller chains can complement, rather than compete with, larger one-stop destinations.
Ultimately, AI-based location analytics point to a clear set of grocery growth drivers in 2026: expanded supply that increases overall engagement, more frequent and mission-driven trips, and continued traffic concentration among large chains alongside new opportunities for smaller banners.
One driver of grocery growth in recent years is simply the expansion of grocery supply across multiple retail formats. Wholesale clubs are constantly opening new locations and discount and dollar stores are investing more heavily in their food selection, giving consumers a wider choice of where to shop for groceries. And rather than fragmenting demand, this broader availability appears to have increased overall grocery engagement – benefiting both dedicated grocery stores and grocery-adjacent channels.
Grocery stores continue to capture nearly half of all visits across grocery stores, wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. That share has remained remarkably stable thanks to consistent year-over-year traffic growth – so even as grocery supply increases across categories, dedicated grocery stores remain the primary destination for food shopping.
Meanwhile, mass merchants have seen a decline in relative visit share as expanding grocery assortments at discount and dollar stores and the growing store fleets of wholesale clubs give consumers more alternatives for one-stop shopping.
While much of the broader retail conversation heading into 2026 centers on higher-income consumers carrying growth, the trend looks different in the grocery space. Recent visit trends show that grocery growth has increasingly shifted toward lower- and middle-income trade areas, underscoring the distinct dynamics of non-discretionary retail.
For lower- and middle-income shoppers, elevated food costs appear to be translating into more frequent grocery trips as consumers manage budgets through smaller baskets, deal-seeking, and shopping across retailers. In contrast, higher-income households – often cited as a key growth engine for discretionary retail – are contributing less to grocery visit growth, likely reflecting more stable shopping patterns or a greater ability to consolidate trips or shift spend online.
This means that, in 2026, grocery growth is not being propped up by high-income consumers. Instead, it is being fueled by necessity-driven shopping behavior in lower- and middle-income communities – reinforcing grocery’s role as an essential category and suggesting that similar dynamics may be at play across other non-discretionary retail segments.
Another factor driving grocery growth is the rise in short grocery visits in recent years. Between 2022 and 2025, the biggest year-over-year visit gains in the grocery space went to visits under 30 minutes, with sub-15 minute visits seeing particularly big boosts. As of 2025, visits under 15 minutes made up over 40% of grocery visits nationwide – up from 37.9% of visits in 2022.
This shift toward shorter visits – especially those under 15 minutes – is driven in part by the continued expansion of omnichannel grocery shopping, as many consumers complete larger stock-up orders online and rely on in-store trips for order collection or quick, fill-in needs. At the same time, the rise in short visits paired with consistent YoY growth in grocery traffic points to additional, behavior-driven forces at play – consumers' growing willingness to shop around at different grocery stores in search of the best deal or just-right product.
Value-conscious shoppers – particularly consumers from low- and middle-income households, which have driven much of recent grocery growth – seem to be increasingly shopping across multiple retailers to secure the best prices. This behavior often involves making targeted trips to different stores in search of the strongest deals, a pattern that is contributing to the rise in shorter, more frequent grocery visits. At the same time, other grocery shoppers are making quick trips to pick up a single ingredient or specialty item – perhaps reflecting the increasingly sophisticated home cooks and social media-driven ingredient crazes. In both these cases, speed is secondary to getting the best value or the right product.
So while some shorter visits reflect a growing emphasis on efficiency – as shoppers use in-store trips to complement primarily online grocery shopping – others appear driven by a preference for value or product selection over speed. Despite their differences, all of these behaviors have one thing in common – they're all contributing to continued growth in brick-and-mortar grocery visits. Grocers who invest in providing efficient in-store experiences are particularly well-positioned to benefit from these trends.
As early as 2022, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains already accounted for roughly half of all grocery visits nationwide. And by outpacing the industry average in terms of visit growth, these chains have continued to capture a growing share of grocery foot traffic.
This widening gap suggests that scale is increasingly enabling grocers to reinvest in the factors that attract and retain shoppers. Larger chains are better positioned to invest in broader and more differentiated product selection, stronger private-label programs that deliver quality at accessible price points, competitive pricing, and operational excellence across stores and omnichannel touchpoints. These capabilities allow top chains to serve a wide range of shopping missions – from quick, convenience-driven trips to more intentional visits in search of the right product or ingredient.
Consolidation at the top of the grocery category is reinforcing a virtuous cycle: scale enables better value, selection, and experience, which in turn draws more shoppers into stores and supports continued grocery traffic growth.
In 2025, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains accounted for a disproportionate share of visits lasting 15 minutes or more, while smaller grocers captured a larger share of the shortest trips. As shown above, larger grocery chains, which tend to attract longer visits, grew faster than the industry overall – but short visits, which skew more heavily toward smaller chains, accounted for a greater share of total traffic growth. Together, these patterns show that both long, destination trips and short, targeted visits are driving grocery traffic growth and creating viable paths forward for retailers of all sizes.
Larger chains are more likely to serve as destinations for fuller shopping missions, competing for the entire grocery list – or a significant share of it. But smaller banners can grow too by competing for more short visits. By specializing in a specific product category, owning a clearly defined shopping mission, or delivering a compelling value proposition, smaller grocers can earn a place in shoppers’ routines and become a deliberate stop within a broader grocery journey.
As grocery moves deeper into 2026, growth is being driven by the cumulative effect of how consumers are navigating food shopping today. Expanded supply has increased overall engagement, higher food costs are driving more frequent and targeted trips, and shoppers are increasingly willing to split their grocery list across retailers based on value, availability, and mission.
Looking ahead, this suggests that grocery growth will remain resilient, but unevenly distributed. Retailers that clearly understand which trips they are best positioned to win – and invest accordingly – will be best placed to capture that growth. Large chains are likely to continue benefiting from scale, consolidation, and their ability to serve full shopping missions, while smaller banners can grow by earning a defined role within shoppers’ broader grocery journeys. In 2026, success in grocery will be less about winning every trip and more about consistently winning the right ones.
