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Department stores have faced significant challenges in recent years, with inflationary pressures and the rise of off-price competitors weighing on performance. Yet Dillard’s has managed to buck the trend. We dove into the data to explore some of the factors helping Dillard’s stay ahead of its peers.
Better-than-expected recent earnings beats notwithstanding, department stores have faced considerable headwinds in recent years, with store closures and an overall category contraction leading to visit slowdowns. But Dillard’s has remained ahead of the curve – a resilience reflected not only in steady shopper traffic but also in a stock price that has surged as the chain continues to outperform peers.
While overall department store visits fell year-over-year (YoY) through much of 2025, Dillard’s posted positive traffic growth in several key months – most notably May, July, and August – and consistently outpaced a wider segment that saw continued declines.
Location analytics reveal three factors behind Dillard’s recent success: a consistent emphasis on fundamentals that have turned its stores into weekend retail destinations, a Sunbelt-focused footprint, and a thriving clearance network.
First, the fundamentals: Dillard’s has consistently excelled at the basics – maintaining clean, well-staffed stores, prioritizing essentials over fads, and offering an in-store experience defined by helpful sales associates. The fruits from this investment can be seen from its position as a bona fide destination. Between January and August 2025, 42.9% of Dillard’s visits took place over the weekend (Saturdays and Sundays), compared to 40.0% for other department stores. And almost half of Dillard’s weekend visitors traveled more than ten miles to shop (see chart below), versus just 36.5% for other department stores.
The pronounced weekend shift indicates that Dillard’s has become a destination retailer that shoppers go out of their way to visit – a powerful marker of brand strength in a challenging environment.
Dillard's concentration in growing Sunbelt markets like Texas and Florida may also mean that Dillard's is operating in markets relatively favorable to its offerings. The chain has no footprint in the Northeast, where the department store segment has seen the largest YoY declines. Instead, most of its stores are in the South and West where wider department store traffic trends have been generally more favorable.
Last but not least, Dillard’s successful clearance centers have also bolstered the retailer. Out of its 272 stores, 28 operate as clearance centers, and these locations are thriving.
While overall year-to-date visits to Dillard’s remained essentially flat YoY between January and August 2025 – aligning with recent earnings reports – visits to clearance stores rose 7.5% YoY. These outlets are driving meaningful incremental traffic at a time when value-conscious shopping is reshaping consumer behavior.
By combining regional strength, thriving clearance centers, and destination appeal, Dillard’s has carved out a rare advantage in a challenged sector. And with its recent acquisition of Longview Mall in Texas, the chain is showing that it’s not just surviving today’s headwinds – it’s betting on the future of department store retail.
For more data-driven department store insights explore Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
At a time when much of the retail industry looks and feels the same, many retailers are working to cement their brand identity and individuality with consumers, which can help set them apart from their competitors. Finding a competitive advantage can be hard to come by in 2025, as consumers hunt for value wherever they can find it and loyalty to any individual chain is low. This challenge is especially true in the apparel category, where assortments across retail banners have become more similar over time and retailers rely on the same trend forecasting, leading to a lack of newness in the market for shoppers.
One option to freshen up merchandising and offer something unique to potential visitors is through category expansion. Creating more opportunities for consumers to engage with different types of products in a single location could improve visit frequency and overall customer satisfaction, and allow the brand's ethos to expand beyond its traditional borders. Gap Inc. recently announced a new initiative in line with this theory; Both Gap & Old Navy will launch beauty lines in 2026 and 2025 respectively. Old Navy is also slated to launch a true collection of handbags.
Accessories and beauty are natural product expansion categories for retailers that specialize in fashion; for other apparel brands such as J.Crew, Madewell and French label Sézane, accessories have helped to bolster their business and deepen their relationships with shoppers. Luxury apparel and accessory brands have long intertwined their labels with beauty as well, which has helped to spark the prestige beauty industry. In examining the potential opportunity for both retailers and the expanded categories through the lens of retail visits, it’s clear that the mainstream apparel brands can benefit from creating more opportunities for consumers to engage with different products.
Gap Inc.’s planned launch of beauty lines at both Old Navy and Gap tap into the excitement generated by the beauty industry since the pandemic. Recently, the beauty space has faced more headwinds, with increased market saturation and changing consumer behavior softening demand for the category.
But beauty still has a lot of potential momentum ahead, with consumers' continued focus on health, wellness and appearance as well as the rising demand for more affordable indulgences and luxuries in the face of a challenging consumer environment. And while traffic to beauty and self care retail has remained relatively flat in 2025 so far compared to 2024, the industry is still lapping exceptionally strong gains from the past few years.
Gap Inc. has a strong opportunity to bring a fresh perspective to the beauty category. A significant share of Gap and Old Navy shoppers also frequent Ulta, with Old Navy showing the higher overlap (42.2% of Old Navy visitors also visited Ulta between January and August 2025, compared to 38.1% of Gap visitors) – likely one reason the beauty line will debut there first. The audience crossover between Gap Inc.'s leading banners and Ulta highlights clear demand for beauty among Gap Inc.'s customer base and opens the door for the company's apparel brands to capture a portion of that spend over time.
Importantly, both Ulta and Sephora have leaned into expanding their private-label offerings, reflecting consumers’ growing comfort with trying beauty products outside of traditional beauty brands. That shift suggests shoppers may also be willing to embrace beauty lines from retailers like Gap and Old Navy, giving Gap Inc. a more favorable entry point into the category.
Gap Inc.’s most recent release about the project mentioned adding beauty consultants to the Old Navy stores during this fall’s rollout of the category. Dedicated product knowledge and expertise is incredibly important in the beauty space, and visitors tend to stay longer to browse and learn. If Old Navy could capture even a few extra minutes of shoppers’ attention, conversion and dwell times could rise during the remainder of 2025.
Similar to the brands’ expansion into beauty, a new push into the accessories category might just be what Gap Inc. needs to further cement itself as a steward of American fashion. Accessories, including handbags, have had a challenging few years in the post-pandemic period. The category has become more fragmented, and consumers have shown an inclination for fewer logos and branded products. And, the Gap brand has already tested the strategy earlier this year with its collaboration with travel brand Beis.
Old Navy is the first brand to release a robust handbag offering, under the creative direction of Zac Posen – and there is evidence to suggest that handbags might be a great new expansion for the brand. Looking at Old Navy and Gap's visitor habits shows that there are high levels of cross-visitation with off-price retailers, including T.J.Maxx, Marshall’s and Ross Dress For Less.
The off-price channel has had the benefit of being able to curate an assortment of designer and branded handbags at value-driven price points, which has made it more difficult for other retailers to compete. Old Navy focusing on creating products that are value-driven but also fashion forward might prove them to be a worthy adversary in the value apparel space.
But the data also highlights that Gap may hold an even stronger opportunity in accessories.. The chain hasn’t launched its renewed accessories program, but the company recently announced hires hailing from leading accessories giants that certainly can help the brand shape its handbag identity. For consumers who are focused on trend-right styles at a more accessible price point, Gap may be able to find its footing, especially against the backdrop of economic headwinds for many American consumers.
Shoppers may also be looking for alternatives to luxury accessory brands over the next few years – especially those consumers who are considered more aspirational, or only purchase luxury goods occasionally due to their levels of discretionary spending. Foot traffic to luxury apparel and accessories brands shows a slowdown in luxury apparel's offline growth throughout 2025, and insights show that the visits are becoming more consolidated around wealthier shoppers.
Gap Inc.’s expansion into beauty and accessories can help the company drive differentiation in a retail environment where sameness dominates. By entering categories that naturally complement fashion, Gap Inc. has an opportunity to extend its brand identity beyond apparel, deepen customer engagement, and capture wallet share from both loyal shoppers and those trading down from luxury.
Success will hinge on execution: delivering value-driven yet fashion-forward products, ensuring knowledgeable in-store experiences, and crafting compelling brand storytelling. If Gap Inc. can leverage these new categories effectively, its beauty and accessories strategy could not only boost near-term traffic and sales but also lay the foundation for sustainable long-term growth in a highly competitive market.
Shifts away from designer handbags, both in the luxury and mid-tier segments, may create the perfect opportunity for Gap to stake its claim. The industry is still lacking affordable, fashion driven accessories that can appeal to a wide array of consumers. If the merchandising and brand storytelling can create a compelling reason to buy for shoppers, the brand might be able to extend the reinvention that has been working for the retailer throughout 2025.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
At the height of the pandemic, many wondered whether beauty (retailers like Ulta and Bath & Body Works) and fitness (i.e. gyms and health clubs) foot traffic would ever recover from the many months of home workouts and social distancing. Several years on, however, visits to these retail spaces have not only rebounded, but well-surpassed pre-pandemic levels. We dove into the data for the Beauty and Fitness spaces to find out how consumer behavior has changed and what might be contributing to these categories’ sustained foot traffic growth.
The graph below shows that visits to the Beauty & Self Care and Fitness spaces followed a consistently upward trajectory between 2021 and 2024, but their paths are now beginning to diverge.
Beauty – which expanded its offline footprint more rapidly compared to fitness between 2021 and 2024 – now appears to be plateauing. Ulta, one of the major beneficiaries of the post-pandemic beauty boom, recently raised its full-year guidance, while still expressing caution around global trade uncertainty and noting deceleration in higher priced fragrance and cosmetics. Some executives also report value-conscious shoppers as becoming more selective in their spending instead of chasing every new beauty trend. As a result, even though the sector remains well above pre-pandemic levels, rising consumer caution is putting the brakes on further gains – at least for now.
Meanwhile, fitness traffic continues to grow consistently year over year, perhaps aided by increasingly health-conscious Gen Z and millennial consumers. Although fitness' gains over the pre-pandemic baseline are not as large as those seen in beauty, the category’s steady momentum reflects an increasing consumer focus on wellness and signals substantial potential for future growth.
One factor behind the rise in fitness visits is likely that gymgoers are working out more frequently.
The share of visitors going to the gym around once a week (four times a month or more) increased between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025. Even more impressive is the increased visit frequency at the start of the year, a traditionally strong period for fitness traffic.
Fitness chains typically see a surge in visits at the start of the year as gym visitors – both new sign-ups and existing members – renew their commitment to healthy lifestyles as part of their New Year’s resolutions.
And the data suggests that gym-goers hit the gym more frequently during this period, as well. Close examination of the shaded area in the graph below shows that the share of gym-goers that went at least four times a month (about once a week) during the months Q1 2025 has increased compared to Q1 2024. And the most recent data reveals that frequency has remained higher this year compared to 2024 throughout the summer as well, indicating that visitor frequency is continuing to grow more robust.
In a period of economic uncertainty, gym-goers are getting more value out of their memberships than in the past, and seem to be more likely to join, and remain members, throughout the year.
Even as visits to the beauty space surged since 2019, the length of the average visit has decreased, highlighting the evolving but still critical role of physical stores.
Analysis of average visit duration for three leading chains – Ulta, Bath & Body Works, and Sally Beauty Supply – shows that the average visit length dropped across all three chains between H1 2019 and H1 2024. This trend may reflect the growing influence of social commerce in product discovery and digital sales, reducing the need for extended in-store browsing.
Yet, physical stores remain a powerful driver of engagement: many consumers still seek immersive experiences and want to try and buy products in-person. Retailers are enhancing the appeal of in-store shopping through cutting-edge beauty tech that connect digital discovery with physical retail spaces. Notably, between H1 2024 and H1 2025, the analyzed brands experienced a modest rebound in visit length – further evidence that physical stores continue to serve as vital tools for consumer engagement.
Foot traffic to both the beauty and fitness spaces has surpassed pre-pandemic levels. However, value-consciousness is currently putting pressure on beauty retail while health-consciousness is aiding fitness gains. Still, the future looks bright for both categories, in which physical spaces are taking on a new role in engaging consumers.
Want more data-driven retail insights? Visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
As consumer spending continues to bifurcate, mid-tier chains face headwinds while off-price and luxury apparel gain ground. Which of the two apparel segments has the greatest growth potential? We dove into the data to find out.
Off-price has led apparel growth in recent years, and continuing economic uncertainty is helping the segment build on that momentum and continue its upward trajectory in 2025. But the luxury apparel segment – which underperformed the wider apparel category for much of 2024 – has also been on the rise lately, as shown in the chart below.
So far in 2025, foot traffic to luxury chains and department stores has increased year-over-year, consistently outpacing the broader apparel category. This trend reflects the increasingly bifurcated retail space: value-oriented chains, including off-price leaders, are winning over budget-conscious shoppers, while premium brands continue to attract affluent customers who remain less sensitive to economic headwinds.
Still, the data also shows that off-price chains continue to show significantly stronger traffic growth, while luxury visits have recently stabilized – traffic between June and August 2025 was roughly flat YoY. This contrast underscores the greater growth potential of value-oriented retailers in the current environment, with middle-income shoppers far more likely to trade down into off-price than to stretch into luxury. So although affluent spending appears to be holding steady, luxury’s room for further expansion may be limited.
Luxury may be more visible than ever, with social media fueling brand awareness. Pandemic-era stimulus checks may also have briefly given middle-income shoppers an opportunity to splurge on coveted labels. But beneath the surface, the data suggests that the audience is actually narrowing, with luxury chains drawing more heavily from affluent areas – even as brands try to broaden their lines and bring prestige to the masses.
Between 2022 and 2025, the median HHI for luxury shoppers climbed from $115K to nearly $118K, while the medians for traditional and off-price apparel shoppers held steady.
This suggests that, as prices rise, luxury increasingly depends on the nation’s wealthiest households, while off-price, with its median HHI of $75K (closely aligned with the national average of $79.6K according to PopStats 2024 data), continues to draw a broad shopper base. Off-price’s income profile may even be buoyed by wealthier shoppers trading down, while mid-range apparel chains feel the pressure of more cost-conscious behavior.
As 2025 progresses, apparel’s bifurcation is likely to deepen, with off-price chains positioned to capture continued traffic gains from value-driven shoppers and even affluent consumers trading down. Luxury is likely to remain resilient among high-income households, but its reliance on a narrowing customer base may limit growth, leaving value-oriented retailers better positioned to capitalize on shifting consumer dynamics in the months ahead.
To see up-to-date retail traffic trends, visit our free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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The arts and crafts sector is undergoing a major shakeup. Party City shuttered all corporate-owned stores early in the year after filing for bankruptcy, and by May, JOANN had closed its doors as well. But what could have been a moment of contraction for the largely discretionary category has instead accelerated growth for its strongest players. The industry is consolidating around two leaders – Hobby Lobby and Michaels.
What explains the continued strength of these two banners? And how are they positioning themselves to capture share in a reshaped retail landscape? We dove into the data to find out.
Despite its discretionary nature, crafting is flourishing in 2025. Screen-fatigued consumers are embracing hands-on, mindful projects like knitting, embroidery, and DIY décor as creative outlets and stress relievers. At the same time, crafting serves a practical role, producing inexpensive gifts and home decorations that help households stretch budgets while delivering creative satisfaction.
And Hobby Lobby and Michaels are making the most of this opportunity. Since April 2025, both chains have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, expanding their footprints while also driving more visits to existing locations. And with JOANN and Party City out of the picture, both retailers appear poised to capture displaced demand and further cement their leadership.
Each retailer is following a different path to success.
Michaels has leaned aggressively into the category's realignment. The company acquired JOANN's intellectual property and private-label brands to broaden its assortment and has moved quickly into Party City's vacated territory with an expanded lineup of balloons and party goods. Michaels is also doubling down on in-store experiences like birthday parties and leaning even more heavily into seasonal products – including for Halloween, Party City’s traditional stronghold.
This latter move could prove especially powerful during the upcoming spooky season. Halloween was historically Party City’s busiest period of the year, with October 2024 visits surging nearly 95% above the chain’s monthly average. With Party City gone – and Michaels already rolling out its “Summerween” offerings – the retailer looks well-positioned to capture some of that seasonal momentum and emerge as one of Halloween’s new retail destinations.
Hobby Lobby, by contrast, has stuck to its proven strategy of steadily expanding a nationwide fleet of large-format stores with broad, affordable selections. And this approach continues to pay dividends.
Though Hobby Lobby doesn’t really do Halloween, it carries plenty of seasonal decorations – which have traditionally driven substantial holiday visit boosts from November (see graph above). Hobby Lobby’s immersive environment also encourages extended browsing sessions, leading to longer visits. Between May and July of this year, shoppers averaged 31.4 minutes per trip to Hobby Lobby compared to 25.5 minutes at Michaels. The chain also leads in loyalty: Over the same period, 21.5% to 23.3% of visitors shopped at Hobby Lobby at least twice per month, a significant increase from last year.
Far from being sidelined as a discretionary indulgence, crafting has become an outlet for creativity, mindfulness, and affordability – and the shakeout of weaker players has only sharpened the advantage of category leaders. With Michaels pushing boundaries through innovation and seasonal dominance, and Hobby Lobby deepening loyalty through scale and consistency, both banners are positioned to ride the craft retail wave well into the future.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Black Rock Coffee Bar ended its NASDAQ debut in September 2025 at a market valuation of $1.32 billion – a remarkable showing for the relatively young coffee chain.
We took a closer look at the data to see what sets Black Rock apart from its competitors – and what might be fueling its remarkable valuation and early surge in share price.
Black Rock Coffee Bar, which was founded in Oregon and is currently based in Arizona, has been on an impressive growth trajectory– between 2020 and 2025, the chain doubled its unit count, and the company is now targeting 1,000 locations by 2035.
Fueled by its aggressive expansion, Black Rock’s traffic has surged since 2019, with Q2 2025 visits up 226.5% compared to Q3 2019. These trends echo the trajectory of Dutch Bros – another rapidly growing coffee chain founded in Oregon – whose growth path since 2019 closely mirrors Black Rock’s, as shown in the graph below.
Despite their shared origins and similar growth trajectories, the two chains draw distinct audiences. Dutch Bros tends to attract visitors from less affluent neighborhoods, both nationally and within Oregon – due in large part to its typically younger audience – whereas Black Rock Coffee’s customer base skews more affluent than the median in both contexts.
This contrast suggests that the coffee space has ample room for two Oregon-founded chains to scale quickly, as each taps into a distinct segment of the market with complementary growth potential. Dutch Bros can lean into accessibility and mass-market appeal, while Black Rock is positioned to build loyalty with higher-income consumers, potentially supporting premium offerings, differentiated experiences, and stronger long-term margins.
Focusing on recent months shows that – although Black Rock Coffee is maintaining overall positive visit growth – average visits per location have slipped slightly, as seen in the chart below. What does this mean for Black Rock Coffee's future?
Overall traffic is still climbing and new stores are expanding the brand's customer base, so the slowdown appears to be a short-term adjustment rather than a hard ceiling. But the dip in visits per venue may indicate that the chain is beginning to saturate its traditional western and southern markets – signaling that further growth may depend on expansion into new states and DMAs.
Black Rock Coffee's growth is reminiscent of that of Dutch Bros, and demographic differences between their audiences create room for both chains to continue expanding – though Black Rock's softer per-location trends bear watching as it expands. Still, the chain’s affluent customer base provides resilience and supports long-term growth, helping explain Black Rock Coffee's premium valuation and early market enthusiasm.
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Placer.ai observes a panel of mobile devices in order to extrapolate and generate visitation insights for a variety of locations across the U.S. This panel covers only visitors from within the United States and does not represent or take into account international visitors.
Professional sports are big business – the industry is valued at nearly $1 billion in the United States alone. And beyond the economic impact of actual ticket sales and stadium and sponsorship gains, major sporting events can have significant impacts on local industries such as tourism, dining, and hospitality. Cities hosting sports events tend to see influxes of visitors who boost tourism, spend money at restaurants and hotels, and create ripple effects that benefit entire local economies.
The 2024 Copa América, typically held in South America but hosted in the United States this year, provides a prime example of the effect sports tourism can have on local economies. The games kicked off in Atlanta, Georgia on June 20th, 2024, before moving on to other host cities and boosting hospitality traffic along the way.
This white paper dives into the data to see how the games impacted hotel visits in cities across America – and especially in Atlanta. The report uncovers the hotel tiers and brands that saw the largest visit boosts and explores visitor demographics to better understand the audiences drawn to the event.
The Copa América took place in June and July 2024, with fourteen cities – mainly across the Sunbelt – hosting games. Thousands of fans attended each event, driving up demand in local hotel markets.
Arlington, TX, saw the largest hotel visit bump during the week it hosted the games, with hospitality traffic up 23.0% compared to the metro area's weekly January to September 2024 visit average. Orlando, FL, too, enjoyed a significant visit spike (22.1%), followed by Kansas City, KS-MO (17.4%).
The Atlanta metropolitan area, for its part, also saw a significant 11.0% increase in hotel visits during its hosting week compared to the city’s weekly visit average.
The Copa América games attracted fans from across the country – from as far away as Washington State and New Hampshire, as well as from neighboring states like Florida. On the day the tournament began, 26.1% of the domestic visitors to Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium came from over 250 miles away, up from an average of 19.7% during the rest of the year (January to September 2024). These out-of-towners likely had a significant impact on Atlanta’s local economy – through spending on accommodations, dining, and entertainment.
During the week of the Copa América game, all of the analyzed hotel types in Atlanta received a visit bump. And while some of these visits were likely unrelated to the game, the massive scale of the event means that a significant share of the visit growth was likely driven by out-of-town soccer fans. Analyzing these patterns Atlanta can provide valuable insights for hospitality stakeholders looking to attract attendees of major sporting events.
Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest boost during the week of the event, with visits 20.8% higher than the weekly visit average between January and September 2024. Midscale and Upscale hotels also experienced significant visit increases of 15.8% and 14.0%, respectively. During the same period, visits to Luxury hotels grew by 9.0% and Economy Hotel visits rose by 7.0% compared to the January to September 2024 weekly average. Meanwhile Upper Upscale Hotels received the smallest boost, with visits up by 2.9%.
Judging by these travel patterns, it appears that most Copa América spectators prefer to stay at Midscale, Upper Midscale, or Upscale hotels during the trip.
While Upper Midscale Hotels in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta metro area generally experienced the biggest visit boost during the Copa América, visit performance varied somewhat from chain to chain. TownePlace Suites and Fairfield Inn, both Upper Midscale Marriott properties, saw increases of 27.5% and 25.3%, respectively, compared to their January to September 2024 weekly averages. Other chains in the tier also enjoyed visit boosts – visits to Home2 Suites by Hilton and Hampton Inn – both Hilton chains – jumped by 17.3% and 17.4%, respectively, during the same period.
The popularity of these Upper Midscale hotels may be driven by a multitude of factors. Some, like TownePlace Suites and Home2 Suites offer kitchenettes, something that may appeal to visitors looking to save by preparing their own meals. Others, such as Fairfield Inn and Hampton Inn which offer more locations closer to the stadium may attract visitors that prioritize convenience.
Layering the STI: PopStats dataset onto Placer.ai’s captured market can provide insights into Copa América attendees by revealing the demographic attributes of census block groups (CBGs) contributing visitors to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. (The CBGs feeding visitors to a chain or venue, weighted to reflect the share of visitors from each one, are collectively referred to as the business’ captured market.)
During the Copa América opener,Mercedes-Benz Stadium drew visitors from CBGs with a median household income (HHI) of $90.0K – well above the national median of $76.1K and similar to the median HHI during the Taylor Swift concert ($90.6K). The stadium’s trade area median HHI was even higher during the Super Bowl ($117.9K).
This visitor profile suggests that Copa América attendees – along with guests of other major cultural and sporting events – often have the means to splurge on comfortable, mid-range hotels for their stays. As Atlanta gears up to host the College Football National Championship in January 2025, the 62nd Super Bowl in February 2028, and the MLB All Star Game in July 2025, along with a host of smaller-scale events – the city can draw on historical data from past events, including the Copa América, to better understand the needs and preferences of stadium visitors and plan accordingly.
And although Upper Upscale hotels generally experienced relatively subdued growth during the Atlanta Copa América opener, some Upper Upscale properties – including Marriott’s Autograph Collection Twelve Downtown, saw visits jump. Visits to the hotel were up 19.7% during the week of the Copa América compared to the January to September 2024 weekly average.
The Twelve Downtown has become a popular lodging choice for major events in the city, likely due to its proximity to Mercedes-Benz Stadium. (The hotel is located just over a mile away from the stadium). During the Super Bowl LIII five years ago, the Twelve Downtown drew 27.9% more visits than its weekly average for January to September 2019. And during the 2023 Taylor Swift concert, the hotel saw a 25.5% visit bump.
A closer look at the median HHI of the hotel’s captured market during the three periods reveals that, despite each event attracting visitors from varying income brackets, the median HHI of visitors to the Twelve Downtown remained stable. Visitors to the hotel between January and September 2024 came from trade areas where the median HHI was $76.2K, not far off from the median HHI during the 2019 Super Bowl ($75.4K), Taylor Swift’s 2023 concert ($80.6K) and the Copa América ($76.7K).
This stability suggests that, regardless of the event, hotels attract a specific visitor base. And understanding the similarities within the demographic profiles of likely hotel visitors during different events will be key for hotels at all levels seeking to capitalize on the economic opportunities created by major local events.
The Mountain region offers employment opportunities, affordable housing, outdoors recreation, and a relatively low cost of living – which could explain why these states are emerging as major domestic migration hubs. Idaho, Nevada and Wyoming in particular have consistently attracted inbound domestic migration in recent years, as Americans continue leaving higher density regions in search of greener – and calmer – pastures.
This report uses various datasets from the Placer.ai Migration Trends Report to analyze domestic migration to Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming. Where are people coming from? And how is recent migration impacting local population centers in these states? Keep reading to find out.
Idaho emerged as a domestic migration hotspot over the pandemic, as many Americans freed from the obligation of in-person work relocated to the Gem State. Between June 2020 and June 2024, Idaho saw positive net migration of 4.7%, more than any other state in the U.S. (This metric measures the number of people moving to a state minus the number of people leaving – expressed as a percentage of the state’s total population.) And between 2023 and 2024, Idaho remained the nation’s top domestic migration performer (see map above).
Diving into the data reveals that though people moved to Idaho from across the U.S., most of Idaho’s influx over the past four years came from neighboring West Coast and Mountain States – especially California. Former residents of the Golden State accounted for a whopping 58.1% of inbound migrants to Idaho over the analyzed period.
California’s position as the top feeder of relocators to Idaho during the analyzed period may come as no surprise, given the state’s recent population outflow and the many former California residents who have settled in the Mountain region. But Washington, Oregon, and Nevada – where inbound and outbound migration remained relatively even in recent years – have also been seeing shifts to Idaho.
Idaho has a lower tax burden, robust employment opportunities, and greater overall affordability than its top four feeder states. So some of the recent relocators likely moved to the Gem State to enjoy better economic opportunities while staying relatively close to their states of origin. And these recent Idahoans may be reshaping Idaho’s demographic and economic landscape in the process.
Most inbound migration to Idaho is concentrated in the state’s metro areas, with Boise – the capital of Idaho and the major city closest to California – consistently absorbing the highest share of net inbound migration.
But recently, other CBSAs have emerged as key destinations for new Idahoans. The location of two emerging domestic relocation hubs in particular suggests that many new Idaho residents may be looking to stay close to their areas of origin: Coeur d’Alene, located near the border with Washington, attracts its largest contingent of new residents from the Spokane, WA metro area, while Twin Falls’ top feeder area is the Elko CBSA in northern Nevada.
Twin Falls in southern Idaho has a strong job market – and has received a substantial share of inbound domestic migration over the past three years. Coeur d’Alene is also flush with economic opportunities, and after declining steadily for several years, the share of relocators heading to the metro area increased to 20.7% between June 2023 and 2024.
The chart above also reveals that the share of inbound migration heading to Boise declined slightly between June 2023 and June 2024 – following a period of consistent growth between June 2020 and June 2023 – even as the share of migration to Coeur d’Alene ballooned. This may mean that, although the state’s largest metro area may have reached its saturation point, other areas in the state are still primed to receive inbound migration.
While Nevada is losing some of its population to nearby Idaho, the Silver State is also gaining new residents of its own: Between September 2020 and September 2024, the Silver State experienced positive net migration of 3.3%. And the data indicates that many new Nevadans are choosing to settle in the state's rapidly growing suburban centers.
Zooming into the Las Vegas-Henderson CBSA reveals that much of the growth is concentrated outside the main city of Las Vegas. Instead, the more suburban cities of Enterprise, Henderson, and North Las Vegas received the largest migration bump – with Henderson and North Las Vegas’ population now surpassing that of Reno. And while year-over-year migration trends suggest that the growth is beginning to stabilize, Enterprise and Henderson are still growing significantly faster than the CBSA as a whole – indicating that the suburbs continue to draw Nevada newcomers.
Analyzing the inbound domestic migration to Enterprise – one of the fastest growing areas in the country – may shed light on the aspects of suburban Las Vegas that are driving population growth.
Many new Enterprise residents moved to the city from elsewhere in Nevada, while most out-of-state newcomers came from California or Hawaii – mirroring the migration patterns for Nevada as a whole. And according to the Niche Neighborhood Grades dataset, Enterprise is a good fit for retirees and young professionals alike, with the city ranking higher than its feeder areas with regard to a range of factors – from jobs and commute to weather.
Like with migration to the rest of the Mountain region, domestic migration to Nevada – particularly to suburban areas like Enterprise and Henderson – is likely driven by newcomers looking for more economic opportunities along with higher quality of life.
Wyoming – currently the least populous state in the country – is another Mountain region state where inbound migration is driving up the population numbers. But in the Cowboy State, urban areas – as opposed to suburban ones – seem to be the main magnets for population growth.
The Cheyenne, Wyoming CBSA – home to Wyoming’s capital – is the largest metro area in the state. And analyzing the CBSA’s population trends over the past six years reveals a recent shift in Wyoming’s inbound migration patterns.
Cheyenne’s population is mostly suburban, and the CBSA’s suburban areas remain popular with newcomers – suburban Cheyenne has also seen steady population growth since January 2018. But when the CBSA became a popular relocation destination over the pandemic, many newcomers to the Cheyenne region chose to move to metro area’s more rural areas: By April 2022, Cheyenne’s rural population had jumped by 10.8% compared to a January 2018 baseline, compared to a 5.9% and 3.9% increase in the CBSA’s suburban and urban populations, respectively.
As the country opened back up, however, the number of rural Cheyenne residents dropped back down – and by September 2024, Cheyenne’s rural population was only 0.1% bigger than it had been in January 2018. The population growth in suburban Cheyenne also slowed down, with the September 2024 suburban population numbers more or less on par with the April 2022 figures.
Now, Cheyenne’s urban areas have overtaken both rural and suburban areas in terms of population growth: In September 2024, Cheyenne’s urban population was 9.4% bigger than in January 2018, compared to 5.2% and 0.1% growth for the suburban and urban areas, respectively.
Despite the growth in Cheyenne’s urban population, the suburbs still remain the most populous – as of September 2024, 71.2% of the CBSA’s population resided in suburban areas. But the continued growth of Cheyenne’s urban population may reflect a rising demand among Wyomingites for amenities and economic opportunities unavailable elsewhere in the state, mirroring the trend in Idaho’s urban CBSAs such as Boise and Coeur d'Alene.
Cheyenne’s urban growth could be partially due to shifts in migration patterns. At the height of the pandemic, most newcomers to Cheyenne were coming from out of state, perhaps drawn by the quiet and spaciousness of rural Wyoming. But since 2022, the share of migration to Cheyenne from within Wyoming has grown – coinciding with the population increase in its urban areas and suggesting that Cheyenne's amenities are attracting more residents statewide.
This growing intra-state migration to Cheyenne’s urban areas underscores the city’s evolving role as a hub within Wyoming, appealing not just to newcomers from outside the state but increasingly to Wyoming residents seeking the benefits of a more urban lifestyle relative to the rest of the state.
The Mountain States are solidifying their status as key migration hubs in the U.S., driven by economic opportunities, affordable living, and lifestyle appeal. Between September 2023 and September 2024, Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming all experienced significant population growth due to inbound domestic migration. In Idaho, newcomers from neighboring states are boosting the population of the Gem State’s major metro areas. Meanwhile the Cheyenne, Wyoming, CBSA is emerging as a focal point for intra-state migration, with urban Cheyenne seeing particularly pronounced growth. And in Nevada, suburban hubs like Henderson and Enterprise are welcoming new arrivals seeking a balance of suburban comfort and economic potential. With the cost of living continuing to increase – and the Mountain region offering something for everyone through its various states – Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming are likely to remain top migration destinations in 2025 and beyond.
2024 has been another challenging year for retailers. Still-high prices and an uncertain economic climate led many shoppers to trade down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences. Value took center stage, as cautious consumers sought to stretch their dollars as far as possible.
But price wasn’t the only factor driving consumer behavior in 2024. This past year saw the rise of a variety of retail and dining trends, some seemingly at odds with one another. Shoppers curbed discretionary spending, but made room in their budgets for “essential non-essentials” like gym memberships and other wellness offerings. Consumers placed a high premium on speed and convenience, while at the same time demonstrating a willingness to go out of their way for quality or value finds. And even amidst concern about the economy, shoppers were ready to pony up for specialty items, legacy brands, and fun experiences – as long as they didn’t break the bank.
How did these currents – likely to continue shaping the retail landscape into 2025 – impact leading brands and categories? We dove into the data to find out.
Bifurcation has emerged as a foundational principle in retail over the past few years: Consumers are increasingly gravitating toward either luxury or value offerings and away from the ‘middle.’ Add extended economic uncertainty along with rapid expansions and product diversification from top value-oriented retailers, and you have an explosion of visits in the value lane.
But we are seeing a ceiling to that growth – especially in the discount & dollar store space. Throughout 2023 and the first part of 2024, visits to discount & dollar stores increased steadily. But no category can sustain uninterrupted visit growth forever. Since April 2024, year–over-year (YoY) foot traffic to the segment has begun to slow, with September 2024 showing just a modest 0.8% YoY visit increase.
Discount & dollar stores, which attract lower-income shoppers compared to both grocery stores and superstores, have also begun lagging behind these segments in visit-per-location growth. In Q3, the average number of visits to each discount and dollar store location remained essentially flat compared to 2023 (+0.2%), while visits per location to superstores and grocery stores grew by 2.8% and 1.0%, respectively. As 2024 draws to a close, it is the latter segments, which appeal to shoppers with incomes closer to the nationwide median of $76.1K, which are seeing better YoY performance.
The deceleration doesn’t mean that discount retailers are facing existential risk – discount & dollar stores are still extremely strong and well-positioned with focused offerings that resonate with consumers. The visitation data does suggest, however, that future growth may need to focus on initiatives other large-scale fleet expansions. Some of these efforts will involve moving upmarket (see pOpShelf), some will focus on fleet optimization, and others may include new offerings and channels.
Return of the middle anyone?
Still, in an environment where consumers have been facing the compounded effects of rising prices, value remains paramount for many shoppers. And brands that have found ways to let customers have their cake and eat it too – enjoy specialty offerings and elevated experiences without breaking the bank – have emerged as major visit winners this year.
Trader Joe’s, in particular, has stood out as one of the leading retail brands for innovative value in 2024, a trend that is expected to continue into 2025.
Trader Joe’s dedicated fan base is positively addicted to the chain’s broad range of high-quality specialty items. But by maintaining a much higher private label mix than most grocers – approximately 80%, compared to an industry average of 25% to 30% – the retailer is also able to keep its pricing competitive. Trader Joe’s cultivates consumer excitement by constantly innovating its product line – there are even websites dedicated to showcasing the chain’s new offerings each season. In turn, Trader Joe’s enjoys much higher visits per square foot than the rest of the grocery category: Over the past twelve months, Trader Joe’s drew a median 56 visits per square foot – compared to 23 for H-E-B, the second-strongest performer.
Casual dining chain Chili’s has also been a standout on the disruptive value front this past year – offering consumers a full-service dining experience at a quick-service price point.
Chili’s launched its Big Smasher Burger on April 29th, 2024, adding the item to its popular ‘3 for Me’ offering, which includes an appetizer, entrée, and drink for just $10.99 – lower than than the average ticket at many quick-service restaurant chains. The innovative promotion, which has been further expanded since, continues to drive impressive visitation trends. With food-away-from-home inflation continuing to decelerate, this strategy of offering deep discounts is likely to continue to be a key story in 2025.
Convenience is king, right?
Well, probably not. If convenience truly were king, visitors would orient themselves to making fewer, longer visits to retailers – to minimize the inconvenience of frequent grocery trips and spend less time on the road. But analyzing the data suggests that, while consumers may want to save time, it is not always their chief concern.
Looking at the superstore and grocery segments (among others) reveals that the proportion of visitors spending under 30 minutes at the grocery store is actually increasing – from 73.3% in Q3 2019 to 76.6% in Q3 2024. This indicates that shoppers are increasingly willing to make shorter trips to the store to pick up just a few items.
At the same time, more consumers than ever are willing to travel farther to visit specialty grocery chains in the search of specific products that make the visit worthwhile.
Cross visitation between chains is also increasing – suggesting that shoppers are willing to make multiple trips to find the products they want – at the right price point. Between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024, the share of traditional grocery store visitors who also visited a Costco at least three times during the quarter grew across chains.
Does this mean convenience doesn’t matter? Of course not. Does it indicate that value, quality and a love of specific products are becoming just as, if not more, important to shoppers? Yes.
The implications here are very significant. If consumers are willing to go out of their way for the right products at the right price points – even at the expense of convenience – then the retailers able to leverage these ‘visit drivers’ will be best positioned to grow their reach considerably. The willingness of consumers to forego convenience considerations when the incentives are right also reinforces the ever-growing importance of the in-store experience.
So while convenience may still be within the royal family, the role of king is up for grabs.
Convenience may not be everything, but the drive for quicker service has emerged as more important than ever in the restaurant space. Diners want their fast food… well, as fast as possible. And to meet this demand, quick-service restaurants (QSRs) and fast-casual chains have been integrating more technology into their operations. Chipotle has been a leader in this regard, unveiling the “Autocado” robot at a Huntington Beach, California location last month. The robot can peel, pit, and chop avocados in record time, a major benefit for the Tex-Mex chain.
And the Autocado seems to be paying off. The Huntington Beach location drew 10.0% more visits compared to the average Chipotle location in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro area in Q3 2024. Visitors are visiting more frequently and getting their food more quickly – 43.9% of visits at this location lasted 10 minutes or less, compared to 37.5% at other stores in the CBSA.
Are diners flocking to this Chipotle location to watch the future of avocado chopping in action, or are they enticed by shorter wait times? Time will tell. But with workers able to focus on other aspects of food preparation and customer service, the innovation appears to be resonating with diners.
McDonald’s, too, has leaned into new technologies to streamline its service. The chain debuted its first (almost) fully automated, takeaway-only restaurant in White Settlement, TX in 2022 – where orders are placed at kiosks or on app, and then delivered to customers by robots. (The food is still prepared by humans.) Unsurprisingly, the restaurant drives faster visits than other local McDonald’s locations – in Q3 2023, 79.7% of visits to the chain lasted less than 10 minutes, compared to 68.5% for other McDonald’s in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX CBSA. But crucially, the automated location is also busier than other area McDonald’s, garnering 16.8% more visits in Q3 than the chain’s CBSA-wide average. And the location draws a higher share of late-night visits than other area McDonald’s – customers on the hunt for a late-night snack might be drawn to a restaurant that offers quick, interaction-free service.
Changing store formats is another key trend shaping retail in 2024. Whether by reducing box sizes to cut costs, make stores more accessible, or serve smaller growth markets – or by going big with one-stop shops, retailers are reimagining store design. And the moves are resonating with consumers, driving visits while at the same improving efficiency.
Macy’s, Inc. is one retailer that is leading the small-format charge this year. In February 2024, Macy’s announced its “Bold New Chapter” – a turnaround plan including the downsizing of its traditional eponymous department store fleet and a pivot towards smaller-format Macy’s locations. Macy’s has also continued to expand its highly-curated, small-format Bloomie’s concept, which features a mix of established and trendy pop-up brands tailored to local preferences.
And the data shows that this shift towards small format may be helping Macy’s drive visits with more accessible and targeted offerings that consumers can enjoy as they go about their daily routines: In Q3 2024, Macy’s small-format stores drew a higher share of weekday visitors and of local customers (i.e. those coming from less than seven miles away) than Macy’s traditional stores.
Small-format stores are also making inroads in the home improvement category. The past few years have seen consumers across the U.S. migrating to smaller suburban and rural markets – and retailers like Harbor Freight Tools and Ace Hardware are harnessing their small-format advantage to accommodate these customers while keeping costs low.
Harbor Freight tools and Ace Hardware’s trade areas have a high degree of overlap with some of the highest growth markets in the U.S., many of which have populations under 200K. And while it can be difficult to justify opening a Home Depot or Lowe’s in these hubs – both chains average more than 100,000 square feet per store – Harbor Freight Tools and Ace Hardware’s smaller boxes, generally under 20,000 square feet, are a perfect fit.
This has allowed both chains to tap into the smaller markets which are attracting growing shares of the population. And so while Home Depot and Lowe’s have seen moderate visits declines on a YoY basis, Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware have seen consistent YoY visit boosts since Q1 2024 – outperforming the wider category since early 2023.
Are smaller stores a better bet across the board? At the end of the day, the success of smaller-format stores depends largely on the category. For retail segments that have seen visit trends slow since the pandemic – home furnishings and consumer electronics, for example – smaller-format stores offer brands a more economical way to serve their customers. Retailers have also used smaller-format stores to better curate their merchandise assortments for their most loyal customers, helping to drive improved visit frequency.
That said, a handful of retailers, such as Hy-Vee, have recently bucked the trend of smaller-format stores. These large-format stores are often designed as destination locations – Hy-Vee’s larger-format locations usually offer a full suite of amenities beyond groceries, such as a food hall, eyewear kiosk, beauty department, and candy shop. Rather than focusing on smaller markets, these stores aim to attract visitors from surrounding areas.
Visit data for Hy-Vee’s large-format store in Gretna, Nebraska indicates that this location sees a higher percentage of weekend visits than other area locations – 37.7% compared to 33.1% for the chain’s Omaha CBSA average – as well as more visits lasting over 30 minutes (32.9% compared to 21.9% for the metro area as a whole). For these shoppers, large-format, one-stop shops offer a convenient – and perhaps more exciting – alternative to traditionally sized grocery stores. The success of the large-format stores is another sign that though convenience isn’t everything in 2024, it certainly resonates – especially when paired with added-value offerings.
Many retail brands have entrenched themselves in American culture and become an extension of consumers' identities. And while some of these previously ubiquitous brands have disappeared over the years as the retail industry evolved, others have transformed to keep pace with changing consumer needs – and some have even come back from the brink of extinction. And the quest for value notwithstanding, 2024 has also seen the resurgence of many of these (decidedly non-off-price) legacy brands.
In apparel specifically, Gap and Abercrombie & Fitch – two brands that dominated the cultural zeitgeist of the 1990s and early 2000s before seeing their popularity decline somewhat in the late aughts and 2010s – may be staging a comeback. Bed Bath & Beyond, a leader in the home goods category, is also making a play at returning to physical retail through partnerships.
Anthropologie, another legacy player in women’s fashion and home goods, is also on the rise. Anthropologie’s distinctive aesthetic resonates deeply with consumers – especially women millennials aged 30 to 45. And by capturing the hearts of its customers, the retailer stands as a beacon for retailers that can hedge against promotional activity and still drive foot traffic growth.
And visits to the chain have been rising steadily. In Q4 2023, the chain experienced a bigger holiday season foot traffic spike than pre-pandemic, drawing more overall visits than in Q4 2019. And in Q3 2024, visits were higher than in Q3 2023.
And speaking of the 35 to 40 set – the generation that all retailers are courting? Millennials. Does that sound familiar? Yes, because this is the same generational cohort that retailers tried to target a decade ago. As millennials have aged into the family-formation stage of life, their retail needs have evolved, and the industry is now primed to meet them.
From the revival of nostalgic brands like the Limited Too launch at Kohl’s to warehouse clubs expanding memberships to younger consumers as they move to suburban and rural communities, there are myriad examples of retailers reaching out to this cohort. And Sam’s Club offers a prime example of this trend.
Over the past few years, millennials and Gen-Zers have emerged as major drivers of membership growth at Sam’s Club, drawn to the retailer’s value offerings and digital upgrades – like the club’s Scan & Go technology. Over the same period, Sam’s Club has grown the share of “Singles and Starters” households in its captured market from 6% above the national benchmark in Q3 2019 to 15% in Q3 2024. And with plans to involve customers in co-creating products for its private-label brand, Sam’s Club may continue to grow its market share among this value-conscious – but also discerning and optimistic – demographic.
Millennials are also now old enough to wax nostalgic about their youth – and brands are paying attention. This summer, Taco Bell leaned into nostalgia with a promotion bringing back iconic menu items from the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s – all priced under $3. The promotion, which soft-launched at three Southern California locations in August, was so successful that the company is now offering the specials nationwide. The three locations that trialed the “Decades Menu” saw significant boosts in visits during the promotional period compared to their daily averages for August. And people came from far and wide to sample the offerings – with a higher proportion of visitors traveling over seven miles to reach the stores while the items were available.
Hot on the heels of a tumultuous 2023, 2024’s retail environment has certainly kept retailers on their toes. While embracing innovative value has helped some chains thrive, other previously ascendant value segments, including discount & dollar stores, may have reached their growth ceilings. Consumers clearly care about convenience – but are willing to make multiple grocery stops to find what they need. At the same time, legacy brands are plotting their comeback, while others are harnessing the power of nostalgia to drive millennials – and other consumers – through their doors.
