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Despite its recent release, Sinners has already generated significant buzz with overwhelmingly positive early reviews and a box office performance likely to break records as the best performing R-rated April release ever. The movie has also helped movie theaters maintain their strong momentum created by the success of A Minecraft Movie.
When Captain America: Brave New World was released on February 14th 2025, the movie drove a 37.0% increase in movie theater visits relative to the YTD (January 6th to April 20th 2025) weekly average. But visits quickly fell following the release week, and movie theater traffic was down 31.1% compared to the YTD average two weeks later.
Meanwhile, A Minecraft Movie led to a 88.6% spike in visits relative to the YTD average on the week of its release, likely thanks to the significant advertising and promotional activities in anticipation of the opening. But traffic was already beginning to fall when Sinners opened on April 18th – and the supernatural thriller helped slow the visit drop: Visits were 13.1% lower over the week of April 7th – April 13th compared to the week of March 31st to April 6th, but only dropped 7.2% week-over-week during the week of the Sinners release, when movie theater traffic stayed 52.1% above YTD weekly visit levels.
Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) brands operate in a fast-paced industry of shifting consumer preferences, and palate-pleasing promotions are one of the ways QSRs drive traffic in the face of evolving demand for value and innovation. Using the latest location intelligence, we analyzed RBI, Yum! Brands, and other top QSRs, to explore their Q1 2025 performance and several promotions that had a significant foot traffic impact.
QSRs faced challenges in the early months of 2025, leading to a Q1 YoY foot traffic decline of 1.6% for the category as a whole. Analyzing the companies' domestic portfolios reveals that traffic to Yum! Restaurants increased 2.9% YoY, bolstered by Taco Bell’s strong performance, while RBI’s traffic fell 3.4% YoY. Wingstop experienced the greatest foot traffic growth of the QSRs analyzed (+4.3%) while Wendy’s saw the sharpest traffic declines (-4.6%).
Zooming in on weekly visits (since March 2025) highlights the foot traffic impact of several QSR promotions – which often cause fanfare during their initial launch.
KFC’s new bucket meal seems to have provided a YoY visit lift for the Yum! chain during the week of March 17th, while visits to Popeyes, an RBI chain, have remained elevated since the week of March 31st, likely due to the launch of the restaurant’s April Fools no-joke pickle menu. But it was Wingstop that stole the visit-spike show with a 22.9% YoY boost during the week of March 24th, 2025 – as eager customers flocked to the chain to redeem T-Mobile’s one-day-only $0.01 chicken tender reward.
And zooming in on daily visit fluctuations to Wingstop during Q1 2025 shows that the T-Mobile tender deal didn’t provide the only one-day visit boost. On Super Bowl Sunday (February 9th, 2025), Wingstop’s traffic was 56.8% above the daily average for Q1 2025, as wings were once again a party favorite.
Taco Bell’s Q1 2025 YoY foot traffic growth stood out among the analyzed QSRs, and diving into visitor frequency data shows that the chain has been attracting an increasing number of repeat visitors.
Between October 2024 and March 2025, the number of frequent visitors to Taco Bell – those who visited at least twice during the month – rose consistently YoY, even as the number of casual visitors decreased or rose only slightly. But in January 2025, Taco Bell saw a significant 11.7% YoY surge in frequent visitors – many of whom may have been attracted to the chain’s revamp of the Luxe Cravings Box to kick off the year.
Despite overall challenges in the QSR segment, strategic promotions contributed to significant foot traffic gains for several brands. Wingstop and Taco Bell were two of the biggest visit winners in Q1, highlighting the impact of both one-day deals and extended offers.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit Placer.ai.
Health and wellness remain significant drivers for grocery shoppers, and today we’re looking at two health-centric grocers – Sprouts Farmers Market and Natural Grocers. The two chains, which recently topped the “Best Natural Food Stores” list, are thriving, and both are planning further expansions in 2025.
We dug into the visit and demographic data to get a sense for how the chains are performing and what might be driving their success.
Sprouts Farmers Market has been a grocery store to watch in recent years. The Arizona-based chain added some 33 new locations over the past year, leading to a major surge in overall visits to the chain. In Q1 2025, visits to the grocer were 11.9% higher than they were in Q1 2024, with the average number of visits to each Sprouts location also increasing 4.2% YoY. In contrast, visits to the wider grocery space rose just 0.8% YoY.
Colorado-based Natural Grocers has also been thriving, with Q1 2025 visits up 5.9% YoY. And though Natural Grocers’ expansion has been slower than Sprouts', it too is gradually growing its store count – and its consistent over-performance shows that its offerings are meeting robust demand.
Diving into audience segmentation data offers insight into some of the factors contributing to the two chains’ success.
Both Sprouts and Natural Grocers attract relatively affluent visitor bases: In Q1 2025, visitors to Sprouts came from areas with a median household income (HHI) of $96.8K, considerably above the category average of $81.8K. Natural Grocers, meanwhile, drew visitors with a median HHI of $84.0K – lower than that of Sprouts, but still higher than the wider segment.
And each of the chains drew higher-than-average shares of both young professionals and a variety of affluent family segments – though Sprouts was more popular among wealthy families, while Natural Grocers attracted more upper-middle-class suburban families.
In a grocery market defined by trading down and intensified competition from low-cost outlets such as dollar stores and superstores, specialty chains like Sprouts and Natural Grocers may benefit from their ability to attract health-focused, higher-income shoppers and busy professionals.
Beyond demographics, each chain occupies a distinct geographic niche. In Q1 2025, 49.3% of visitors to Sprouts came from the “Suburban Periphery” – defined by the Esri: Tapestry Segmentation dataset as commuter-oriented suburbs with access to major cities and their amenities. Natural Grocers, meanwhile, drew just 39.9% from these areas, just slightly above the sector-wide average.
Meanwhile, Natural Grocers drew a much larger share of shoppers from “Metro Cities” – defined as smaller metropolitan or satellite city areas – than either Sprouts or the wider grocery space.
This variance suggests that the two health-centric grocers play complementary roles within the food shopping space, allowing both to maximize relevance among their respective customer bases.
Both Sprouts and Natural Grocers are experiencing visit growth and success – in part by catering to busy professionals and different groups of affluent consumers. As the two chains continue to expand, will they be able to sustain their appeal to distinct customer segments?
Visit Placer.ai for the latest data-driven grocery and retail insights.
Following a second bankruptcy filing, JOANN recently announced a complete shutdown of its fleet. Using location analytics, we uncovered the foot traffic trends behind JOANN’s unraveling and pinpointed retailers that stand to gain from its exit from the arts and crafts space.
JOANN found success during the pandemic, as many consumers stuck at home took on new crafting hobbies. During the second half of 2020, visits to JOANN were consistently above the January 2019 baseline.
But in recent years, the retailer has struggled to sustain its momentum. Since February 2021, visits have remained below pre-pandemic levels – with even the chain’s annual holiday season visit boosts remaining below those seen in Q4 2019. Overall in 2024, visits to JOANN were down 4.4% compared to 2019.
And since announcing that it would be conducting liquidation sales in late February 2025, visits to JOANN have soared as consumers take advantage of final deals on crafting supplies.
Several factors have contributed to JOANN’s decline, including competition from e-commerce and superstores. Analysis of cross-visitation trends for visitors to JOANN reveals that between 2019 and 2024, the share of the retailer’s visitors that also visited Walmart increased from 90.2% to 92.4%, while the share of visitors to Target rose from 80.8% to 83.2%. This indicates that JOANN has faced growing pressure from big-box chains encroaching on JOANN’s market share in the crafting space.
The largest players in the arts and crafts space – Hobby Lobby and Michaels – also appear to have grown their market share at the expense of JOANN, and stand to gain even more from the retailer’s departure.
Both Hobby Lobby and Michaels have emerged as increasingly popular destinations for JOANN shoppers over the past several years: In 2024 49.9% of JOANN visitors frequented a Michaels, while 49.1% visited a Hobby Lobby – up from less than 45% for both chains in 2019.
And analysis of the median household incomes (HHIs) of the three specialty retailers’ 2024 captured trade areas reveals that JOANN attracted more affluent visitors than Hobby Lobby but lower-HHI visitors than Michaels. This suggests that in the absence of JOANN, the chain’s wealthier shoppers may gravitate towards Michaels while its lower-income shoppers may more naturally turn to Hobby Lobby.
Location analytics illuminate the challenges JOANN faced in a competitive market. The increasing overlap in visitation with major retailers like Walmart and Target underscores the intense pressure from superstores. Simultaneously, the growing shared customer base with specialty competitors Michaels and Hobby Lobby suggests a migration of JOANN's audiences.
For more insights anchored in location analytics, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Visitation data at manufacturing facilities can shed light on consumer demand and industrial output trends. We dove into the traffic data at a composite of manufacturing facilities across the United States to find out how the potential tariffs are impacting manufacturing output.
We recently explored how potential tariffs are shaping consumer behavior and retail visitation trends, but location analytics data also offers valuable insights into industrial manufacturing demand by analyzing employee visitation patterns at production facilities. By tracking foot traffic, analysts can assess workforce activity levels, which often correlate closely with production volumes. For instance, increased visits by employees may signal ramped-up output to meet rising demand, while declining visitation can indicate reduced shifts or slowed operations. This data-driven approach enables businesses and investors to make more informed decisions by monitoring real-time industrial activity and anticipating future demand.
Below, we present visitation data for a composite of manufacturing facilities across more than 80 companies, covering a diverse set of sectors including aerospace and defense, automakers, auto parts, building materials, containers and packaging, machinery, and specialty chemicals. Our dataset includes metrics for both employees (estimated using dwell time) and visitors, who often represent logistics partners delivering raw materials, transporting work-in-progress goods, or picking up finished products. Historically, our composites have shown a strong correlation with U.S. Census Bureau data on new orders for manufactured goods (measured in billions of dollars), with the relationship even stronger when adjusted for calendar shifts and seasonal slowdowns during the November/December holiday period.
Although the U.S. Census Bureau’s data is not yet out for March 2025, Placer’s aggregated visitation data for manufacturing facilities indicated a pull forward in demand, indicating that companies have accelerated production in anticipation of potential reciprocal tariff implementation. Facing the prospect of rising costs on imported materials and components, many manufacturers ramped up operations to build inventory and secure supply chains ahead of the policy shift. This proactive approach was especially evident in sectors heavily reliant on global sourcing, with visitation data reflecting heightened on-site activity. While this front-loaded demand may offer short-term stability, it also raises concerns about how manufacturers will manage longer-term cost pressures and supply chain challenges if tariffs are enacted.
Year-to-date manufacturing data shows increased activity at facilities in sectors likely to be affected by reciprocal tariffs – such as aerospace and defense, industrial machinery, and packaging and containers – suggesting manufacturers are accelerating production and shipping to get ahead of potential disruptions. Automobile manufacturing, in particular, warrants attention given recent tariff developments. Both Ford and General Motors ramped up production in late March 2025, evidenced by the jumps in visitation to manufacturing facilities in late March and early April. By acting now, these automakers aim to reduce near-term risks while evaluating longer-term adjustments to their sourcing and production strategies.
From a regional perspective, both Idaho and West Virginia saw some of the largest year-over-year increases in manufacturing visitation during March 2025, driven by rising demand in each state’s key industrial sectors. West Virginia experienced heightened activity in the steel sector – including at companies like Nucor – as producers accelerated output and bolstered inventory ahead of potential supply disruptions. Meanwhile, Idaho saw increased visits to basic materials and packaging/container manufacturers, with companies like CRH and Packaging Corporation of America ramping up operations in anticipation of reciprocal tariffs. Idaho also benefited from continued population growth, as noted in our 2024 Migration Trends Whitepaper. Together, these trends highlight how manufacturers in both states are proactively responding to potential pricing volatility and supply chain challenges tied to ongoing trade policy uncertainty.
As tariff-related uncertainty continues to shape business strategies, location analytics offers a powerful lens into how manufacturers are responding in real time. The surge in visitation activity across key sectors and regions in March 2025 underscores a broader trend of companies accelerating production and reinforcing supply chains ahead of potential policy shifts. From automotive to steel and packaging, manufacturers are not only pulling forward demand but also adapting operations to navigate rising input costs and global sourcing challenges. As trade dynamics evolve, continued monitoring of on-site activity through visitation data will be essential for understanding industrial demand, anticipating disruptions, and guiding more strategic decision-making across the supply chain.
When I first started Omni Talk back in 2017, I used to borrow liberally from the great Peter King and his Monday Morning Quarterback Series. In fact, one of the first articles I ever wrote – 10 Things I Think I Think I Love and Don’t Love about Walmart Right Now – was an outright homage to the man.
The double use of “I Think” is unparalleled. It is pure genius. How the man came up with it, I will never know. It is the perfect mix of WTF and stop you in your tracks syntax because this article looks like it is going to be interesting.
All of which is why I am going back to my roots and imitating “The King” once again for my new column called, All The Things I Think I Think About Retail Over The Last Quarter.
I am sure Mr. King never envisioned that his wise words about the gridiron every Monday morning would still inspire a now pushing-50 retail pundit to wax poetically about the state of retail but here I am, 8 years later, doing just that.
So away we go!
Ashley Buchanan, the former Michaels CEO, is the right man for the job at Kohl’s. Buchanan did a wonderful job instilling an omnichannel foundation at Michaels and has a background rooted in innovation and digital from previous stints at Walmart and Sam’s Club. In fact, I said on a recent podcast that Target would have been wise to look at him to succeed Brian Cornell.
But I do not envy Buchanan.
Not. One. Bit.
Turning Kohl’s around is going to be tough. Buchanan inherits 12 consecutive quarters of comparable sales declines, alongside store traffic trends that read like the opening of a John Carpenter movie.
In its most recent quarter, comparable sales at Kohl’s were a negative 6.7%, and Kohl’s also said that it expects 2025 revenue to fall in the range of 5% to 7%. Frightening indeed. Let’s just hope Buchanan doesn’t already feel like Jamie Lee Curtis trapped in a closet trying to fight her way out with coat hangers.
It is no wonder that Buchanan has already instituted page one of every new CEO’s playbook – i.e. laying off 10% of your corporate workforce – because, lord knows, he is going to need the wiggle room (and as many coat hangers as he can get his hands on).
Costco shareholders overwhelmingly (approximately 98% of them) voted down a measure in late January that urged Costco to assess the risk associated with its DEI practices. Costco’s leadership came out strongly against the measure, arguing that its “commitment to an enterprise rooted in respect and inclusion is appropriate and necessary."
Or said another way, Costco held to a position that many others, including Walmart, Target, and Tractor Supply Company, have not.
In my retail experience, the general impact of taking a strong position on something like this publicly is felt near the beginning of such an announcement and then the impact gradually settles over time.
If that were the case, Costco would have felt the impact in February, but Costco’s recently announced results indicate otherwise.
In its most recent quarter, which ended on January 31, 2025, Costco’s U.S. comparable sales increased 8.7% excluding impacts from gas deflation, while in February, its comparable sales held strong at 8.6%, also excluding any impacts from gas.
I’m no mathematician but that is hardly a dip.
Costco is still experiencing year-over-year traffic patterns, particularly into February (more on that later), of which other retailers can only dream; its U.S. membership renewal rate sits right around 93%; and its Kirkland signature brand appears to be a great hedge against inflation in that it, according to Costco CFO Gary Millerchip, “continues to grow at a faster pace than our business as a whole.”
The Costco executive team also did not mention word one of any DEI impact on its financial results within its last earnings call, something of which Costco no doubt would be conscious of given the current legal and political climate.
No, for all intents and purposes, at least initially, Costco appears to be holding strong to its principles and doing just fine.
Under CEO Jack Sinclair, Sprouts has done a masterful job rightsizing its store prototype, bringing differentiation back to its assortment, and playing on the post-pandemic trend of consumers having a willingness to make that extra trip, as long as it is convenient for them (see below).
Sprouts also has a load of dry powder in its keg. For example, Sprouts still does not have a loyalty program (something it plans to launch in Q3 of this year) and only operates in 24 states.
Or, put mildly, that right sized prototype that has been doing so well? The one driving an 11.5% comp in Sprouts’ most recent quarter?
It still has a lot more room to grow.
Macy’s new CEO Tony Spring loves to talk about the results Macy’s is seeing out of its “First 50” locations, i.e. the 50 locations Macy’s has designated to trial new innovations to improve its overall business. Examples of these innovations include things like: enhanced staffing in certain areas of the stores, modernized visual presentations, enhanced merchandising, or aka all the garden variety things anyone who has been around retail longer than three minutes would expect to see within a test of this kind.
In January, Macy’s reported that its First 50 stores delivered a +1.9% sales comp in Q3 2024, outpacing other Macy's stores by 4.1%, and that it planned to expand its First 50 initiative to another 75 stores over the course of 2025.
All sounds great, right?
Not to me it doesn’t.
First off, in its most recent quarter (Q4 2024), the spread between the First 50 stores and the rest of the Macy’s chain appears to have slipped. Executives reported a 1.2% comp in the First 50 stores against a 0.9% comp decline in its Macy’s nameplate stores. In isolation, this performance might look good on paper, but looking at it against the trend line, one could argue that the First 50 stores performed relatively worse in Q4 than the rest of the chain. The chain’s performance picked up, while the First 50’s fell off.
Second, and perhaps more importantly, I have been around retail long enough to know that one should take the results of tests like these with a fine grain of salt. Many factors can impact the performance of 50 stores, particularly when a new CEO has just taken the helm. The least of which is that everyone in the entire Macy’s organization knows the importance of these stores and, therefore, is likely extra committed to making sure they succeed. As the focus wears off, tests like these usually revert back to the mean.
And, the mean, which looks somewhere in the range of just shy of a -0.9% (at best) to a -6.0% comp (at worst) across the last two quarters, won’t keep the Macy’s Day parade balloons afloat come Thanksgiving time.
Fortunately, Bloomingdale’s is not Macy’s and vice versa. I say that because Bloomingdale’s, unlike Macy’s, could be onto something with its small format strategy.
According to Macy’s website, Bloomingdale’s has 33 full-sized U.S. store locations compared to Macy’s 479.
That is quite the delta.
So much so, that one has to wonder if, similar to Sprouts above, small format Bloomie’s stores throughout the country (of which there are three currently in the U.S.) could become a significant growth vehicle for Bloomingdale’s.
I am on record as saying that when there are already 479 larger-sized Macy’s stores, the last thing anyone needs is a smaller Macy’s. That same logic, however, cannot be applied to Bloomingdale’s because only 33 Bloomingdale’s stores actually exist. The majority of the country has no idea what a Bloomingdale’s experience is like, let alone how to compare shopping at a bigger one versus a smaller one. Consumers generally prefer shopping at a store with a greater selection unless, of course, their next best option is no selection at all.
The data from the three smaller format Bloomie’s stores appears to prove this logic out (see below):
Year-over-year visit growth to Boomie’s stores across six of the last nine quarters has outpaced the general department store industry by a wide margin.
Granted, it is still only three stores, but the logic of the strategy is sound, provided Macy’s can operate these smaller Bloomie’s stores profitably (which is still a big unknown – and an issue that also plays into the Macy’s First 50 stores outlined above).
Target, my alma mater, so to speak, has been stuck in neutral since even before the pandemic began.
I don’t know when or why it happened but, at some point, Target became myopic in its strategy, failing to look beyond its vaunted “owned brands” for growth. While others, like Walmart, were evolving with the times, Target stood flat footed and failed to adapt its Expect More, Pay Less brand promise to the needs of its 21st century, digital-first consumer.
Make no mistake: Target’s former beachheads are now all under siege.
Its higher income demographic shoppers are moving to Walmart because of Walmart’s much stronger competitive positioning of Walmart+; fast fashion players like Shein and Temu are stealing share in apparel; the club channel is more formidable than ever; and Wayfair (more on that in a minute) is now the go-to online source for home furnishings. Taken together, it all means less trips into a Target store over the long-term.
A lot less trips.
But that is just the digital impact. Merchandising execution and in-stocks continue to plague the retailer as well, with many people both in and outside of the organization asking if it isn’t time for Target to return to office, similar to Walmart, Amazon and many others before them.
Something is causing the temperature of Target’s porridge to feel just not quite right (see traffic patterns below). Could it be that the goldilocks shine of CEO Brian Cornell’s strategy to wait by the wayside as other retailers started going out of business is starting to wear off?
Cornell, himself, in Target’s most recent earnings call, lauded the $30 billion of additional revenue Target has gained since 2019, but how much of that was pure inflation and inertia given the bankruptcies of Toys R Us, Bed Bath & Beyond, Party City, and many, many more?
A new alarming feature is what appears to be a precipitous decline in February, corroborated by what Target CFO Brian Lee called “soft” topline performance for the month in the aforementioned earnings call.
Target did not mention its recent DEI rollback as a possible rationale for its slow February, citing instead things like “extreme cold” and “flood and fires,” but the prospect of a 40-day boycott in response to the rollback sure as heck won’t make things any easier.
Target has its work cut out for it, to say the least. Its new $15 billion growth plan is potentially a step in the right direction. However, I worry that, when one looks under the covers of that plan, all he or she will find is the same owned brand gobbledygook that Target has espoused ever since Cornell took over.
And that owned brand well, in relation to the competitive issues outlined above, is done and dried up.
Wayfair announced in January 2025 that it was planning to exit Germany. According to Retail Dive, Wayfair said that it “plans to reinvest cost savings from backing out of Germany into expanding its physical retail footprint.”
After many (what some might call, or at least I would) failed attempts at smaller physical store concepts, Wayfair opened a 150,000 square foot mega store just outside of Chicago. From the looks of the data below, this larger store concept, one of which I have also been a big fan of for sometime now, appears to be showing encouraging signs.
Moreover, the home furnishings industry also appears to be on a bit of a rebound. Traffic to home furnishings players appears to be picking up (see below) and Home Depot just posted its first positive comp quarter after eight consecutive quarterly declines.
Wayfair’s CEO Niraj Shah is as shrewd as they come, and he may just be betting on stores right as a big tailwind is ready to hit his back.
Is it a coincidence then that Wayfair just announced the launch of its second large format store in Atlanta?
I think I think not.
New CEO Brian Niccol took the helm in September of last year and wasted no time in establishing his priorities. Put simply, Niccol wanted to reignite the “third place” atmosphere of Starbucks and ensure that all in-store customers get served their orders in under four minutes or less.
Early results look promising.
While Starbucks’ same-store sales did decline by 4% during the last quarter, this figure still beat Wall Street estimates, which, according to CNBC, had predicted a 5.5% drop.
Traffic data also supports Niccol’s moves (see below).
Lord knows, it’s early here, too, and the February traffic decline is definitely something to watch. But, given that Niccol has only been in his role since September, these results at least have the aroma of an early turnaround.
Unless of course, you are a regular Frappaccino drinker – because then you are probably pissed.
For the past six years, Sam’s Club has sat atop my list as the most innovative retailer in America not named Amazon. It is an award well-deserved for a number of reasons.
First, Sam’s Club has been on a winning streak. In its most recent quarter, Sam’s Club delivered a 6.8% sales comp, excluding fuel.
Second, Sam’s Club has seen explosive growth in digital both online and in-store. E-commerce sales were up over 24% in the last quarter, and the use of its scan and go shopping app hit an all-time high during the same period. This last statistic might not sound like much, but the Sam’s Club executives I have interviewed on multiple occasions have all told me that 1 in 3 shoppers regularly use their scan and go app.
1 in 3!
I am going to go out on a limb here but my guess is that Costco’s mobile app usage is nowhere near that high, particularly in-store.
Third, Sam’s Club is also winning with young people. Sam's Club has reported record highs in membership numbers and renewal rates, with particularly strong growth among Gen Z (63% over two years) and millennials (14% over two years).
The combination of a digital-first shopping experience and a growing percentage of younger people shopping in its stores means that Sam’s Club is positioned to create the most one-to-one personalized shopping experience out there.
Retail media anyone?
I say that in jest but the profit-enhancing effects of retail media are real (see Walmart), and Sam’s Club has created a visual menu board to serve up advertisements to one-third of its shoppers right as they are standing at the shelf. Can Costco or anyone else for that matter do that?
Not nearly to the same degree.
Concluding Thoughts
There you have it. All the things I think I think about retail over the last quarter, and in no particular order of importance.
So, I ask you in closing – what do you think of what I think?
The holiday shopping season traditionally stretches from Black Friday to New Years Eve: Shoppers looking to snag deals, purchase gifts, or enhance their celebrations drive visit spikes at retailers across the country. And although many consumers expressed concern over high prices impacting their holiday budget, spending in 2024 actually increased compared to 2023, with brick-and-mortar stores playing a key role in last year’s holiday season.
So where were the largest holiday spikes? How did last year’s calendar configuration impact retail traffic? Which segment came out ahead – and how did dining fit into the mix? Most importantly – what can we learn from the 2024 holiday season to prepare for 2025?
The holiday shopping season is the busiest time of the year for many retail categories. Between Black Friday and December 31st 2024, daily visits to brick-and-mortar stores increased 12.7%, on average, compared to the rest of the year.
Department stores led the pack, with visits to the segment 102.1% higher than the pre-holiday season average – likely aided by strong Black Friday performances. Other favorite gifting categories, including beauty & self care (72.7%), hobbies, gifts & crafts (60.9%), recreational & sporting goods (55.5%), clothing (41.8%), and electronics stores (32.7%) also received significant traffic boosts. Shopping centers benefited as well with a 24.8% increase in daily visits over the holiday season. Retailers in these segments can capitalize on their holiday popularity and stand out amidst the crowd by promoting their brand early and ensuring their staffing and inventory can accommodate the season’s traffic increases.
The holidays are also a time for entertainment – and purchasing gifts for hosts – which likely helped drive the 48.4% and 41.7% traffic increases at liquor stores and at furniture & home furnishings retailers, respectively. Superstores and discount & dollar stores – with their selection of affordable giftable products and entertainment essentials – also saw holiday-driven visit bumps of 21.2% and 20.2%, respectively. Retailers may choose to highlight seasonal items and hosting-friendly products to increase these traffic bumps in 2025.
Pet stores & services received a smaller (10.0%) bump than the wider retail average – indicating that, although some shoppers buy gifts for their fur babies, pets may not be at the top of most Americans’ gift lists. And visits to the home improvement segment were essentially on par with the pre-holiday period – indicating that the holidays are not the time for extensive home renovation projects. But home improvement chains looking to get in on the holiday action might consider promoting decorations and smaller giftable items in December.
And despite the grocery frenzy of Turkey Wednesday and Christmas Eve Eve, the Grocery segment received a relatively minor holiday boost of 5.0% – perhaps due to holiday travelers skipping their weekly grocery haul. Grocers who lean into prepared foods or pre-packaged meal kits might get an additional bump.
Although the holidays drive retail visit surges across the country, some regions see a bigger traffic bump than others.
In December 2024, almost all 50 states (with the exception of Wyoming ) received a holiday-driven retail traffic boost ranging from a 3.3% (Montana) to a 16.8% (New Hampshire). On a regional basis, the South received the largest increase: The West South Central, East South Central, and South Atlantic divisions received a collective 12.2% increase in daily visits between Black Friday and New Years Eve compared to the pre-Black Friday daily average. (Washington, D.C. saw a slight visit decline of 0.4%, likely due to the many residents leaving the capital for the holiday break.) Retailers in this region may choose to increase staffing and inventory ahead of the 2025 holiday season to handle the increased demand.
Meanwhile, the Midwest region had the smallest holiday-driven traffic spike (9.2%) – despite starting the season ahead of the pack, with the highest Black Friday weekend visit boost. This suggests that Midwestern retailers may have more success with early promotions than with last-minute discounts.
While the holiday season drove an overall retail visit boost nationwide, diving deeper into the data reveals that different retail segments peak at different points of the holiday season.
Most categories – especially the ones that tend to offer steep post-Thanksgiving discounts, such as recreational & sporting goods, department stores, electronics stores, and beauty retailers – received the biggest visit spikes on Black Friday. Retailers in these categories may benefit from promotional campaigns ahead of Thanksgiving to cater to early shoppers and maximize their performance on their busiest day.
Other segments that carry more affordable gifts, stocking stuffers, and food items gained momentum as Christmas approached – with superstores visits spiking on December 23rd and discount & dollar stores peaking on December 24th. These retailers may get even larger end-of-year visit bumps by offering discounts and bundles to last-minute shoppers.
The grocery segment received its largest boost ahead of Thanksgiving, with visits also surging on the days before Christmas as home cooks picked up supplies for the holiday dinner. Grocers who can save their shoppers time during this busy period by offering curbside pickup, pre-prepped ingredients or meal kits, and other conveniences may see particularly strong performances in 2025.
Calendar shifts also play an important role in shaping holiday shopping patterns. Last year, Super Saturday and “Christmas Eve Eve” – each a significant milestone in its own right – coincided on December 23rd, 2023 to create a supercharged shopping event that generated massive visit spikes at retailers across categories.
But in 2024, when the milestones occurred separately, important differences emerged between retailers. Gift-shopping destinations like Macy’s, Nordstrom, and Best Buy saw bigger visit spikes on Super Saturday, while retailers like Target, Walmart, and Costco – carrying both gifts and food items – saw visits surge higher on December 23rd. Dollar Tree, a prime destination for affordable stocking stuffers, also experienced a more pronounced visit spike on Super Saturday.
Predictably, this year’s pre-Christmas milestones generally drove smaller individual visit spikes, as shoppers spread their errands across a longer period. But the stand-alone Super Saturday on December 21st 2024 also allowed consumers to prioritize gift-shopping on Saturday and shop for groceries and last minute stocking stuffers on December 23rd – benefiting certain retailers.
Nordstrom, for instance, saw visits soar to 215.9% above the chain’s 2024 daily average on December 21, 2024 – surpassing the 196.2% increase recorded on December 23, 2023. Macy’s also experienced a slightly higher Super Saturday visit boost this year. Next year, retailers can expect another spread-out pre-Christmas shopping period, with Super Saturday falling on December 20th, 2025 – five days before the holiday. Gift-focused retailers can leverage this timing by ramping up promotions in the run-up to Super Saturday – or by enhancing offerings on December 23rd to capture more late-season shoppers.
Big box retailers like Target, Walmart, and Costco, conversely, can double down on December 23rd or amplify earlier deals to capture a larger share of Super Saturday traffic. And retailers across categories can benefit from the more extended last-minute shopping period by implementing multi-day sales and promotions that encourage repeat visits and drive traffic throughout the week.
Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – is traditionally the grocery sector’s time to shine. And this year didn’t disappoint: On November 27th, 2024, visits to traditional grocery mainstays like Kroger, Safeway, and H-E-B shot up by a remarkable 66.9% to 79.2% compared to the 2024 daily average. And on December 23rd, foot traffic to the chains rose once again, though somewhat more moderately, as shoppers geared up for Christmas celebrations.
But the holiday season stock-up, it turns out, is about more than just food. Whether to help smooth out the rough edges of family interactions or to take celebrations to the next level, consumers also make pre-holiday runs to liquor stores. On Turkey Wednesday, leading spirit purveyors outperformed traditional grocery stores with epic 140.1% to 236.5% visit spikes. And the day before Christmas Eve was an even bigger milestone for the segment, with foot traffic skyrocketing by a staggering 153.6% to 283.8% above daily averages.
Ethnic supermarkets – chains like El Super and Vallarta Supermarket – also thrived on these traditional pre-holiday grocery store milestones. But like liquor stores, they saw bigger visit spikes on December 23rd, as customers likely sought out ingredients for their festive holiday dinners.
Grocery stores seeking to maximize the power of these pre-holiday milestones in 2025 could enhance their liquor selections and launch targeted promotions in the lead-up to both Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Dining venues are also impacted by the rhythms of the holiday season – but each segment within the dining industry follows its own unique seasonal trajectory.
Visits to the fast-casual, coffee, and fine-dining segments increased the week before Thanksgiving, with fast-casual and coffee visits peaking on Wednesday and fine-dining peaking on Thanksgiving day. Both coffee and fine-dining chains also received a small traffic bump on Black Friday, with coffee traffic likely aided by consumers looking to refuel during their shopping.
But beginning in mid-December, the fine-dining category pulled ahead of the other dining segments, picking up steam as the month wore on before peaking on December 23rd and 24th. And while traffic predictably declined on Christmas Day, the drop was less pronounced than for the other analyzed segments. Fine dining then resumed its strong showing on December 26th, maintaining elevated visits through the following days, potentially reflecting its appeal as a festive holiday dining destination for families.
Coffee chains and fast-casual restaurants also enjoyed moderately elevated December traffic, with smaller visit spikes on December 23rd. Traffic to both segments then slowed during the holiday – though coffee chains continued to see higher-than-average foot traffic on Christmas Eve – before tapering off as the month drew to a close.
Looking ahead to 2025, each dining segment can take steps to maximize its holiday impact. Fine dining chains can attract more special-occasion celebrants with unique holiday-themed menu items – paired with targeted promotions that make its premium offerings more accessible to families. Meanwhile, fast-casual and coffee chains can capitalize on high-traffic days like December 23rd by catering to the needs of busy holiday shoppers – extending operating hours and offering streamlined ordering and pickup options.
The 2024 holiday season proved strong for most retail categories, with each retail category displaying a different holiday visit pattern. This year’s calendar layout also presented a unique advantage, with a longer stretch between Super Saturday and Christmas compared to last year.
By analyzing 2024 holiday regional visit trends, understanding the role that each year’s specific calendar configuration plays in shaping consumer behavior, and identifying the unique retail milestones for each chain and category, retail and dining stakeholders can refine their strategies and make the most of the 2025 holiday season.
Placer.ai observes a panel of mobile devices in order to extrapolate and generate visitation insights for a variety of locations across the U.S. This panel covers only visitors from within the United States and does not represent or take into account international visitors.
Professional sports are big business – the industry is valued at nearly $1 billion in the United States alone. And beyond the economic impact of actual ticket sales and stadium and sponsorship gains, major sporting events can have significant impacts on local industries such as tourism, dining, and hospitality. Cities hosting sports events tend to see influxes of visitors who boost tourism, spend money at restaurants and hotels, and create ripple effects that benefit entire local economies.
The 2024 Copa América, typically held in South America but hosted in the United States this year, provides a prime example of the effect sports tourism can have on local economies. The games kicked off in Atlanta, Georgia on June 20th, 2024, before moving on to other host cities and boosting hospitality traffic along the way.
This white paper dives into the data to see how the games impacted hotel visits in cities across America – and especially in Atlanta. The report uncovers the hotel tiers and brands that saw the largest visit boosts and explores visitor demographics to better understand the audiences drawn to the event.
The Copa América took place in June and July 2024, with fourteen cities – mainly across the Sunbelt – hosting games. Thousands of fans attended each event, driving up demand in local hotel markets.
Arlington, TX, saw the largest hotel visit bump during the week it hosted the games, with hospitality traffic up 23.0% compared to the metro area's weekly January to September 2024 visit average. Orlando, FL, too, enjoyed a significant visit spike (22.1%), followed by Kansas City, KS-MO (17.4%).
The Atlanta metropolitan area, for its part, also saw a significant 11.0% increase in hotel visits during its hosting week compared to the city’s weekly visit average.
The Copa América games attracted fans from across the country – from as far away as Washington State and New Hampshire, as well as from neighboring states like Florida. On the day the tournament began, 26.1% of the domestic visitors to Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium came from over 250 miles away, up from an average of 19.7% during the rest of the year (January to September 2024). These out-of-towners likely had a significant impact on Atlanta’s local economy – through spending on accommodations, dining, and entertainment.
During the week of the Copa América game, all of the analyzed hotel types in Atlanta received a visit bump. And while some of these visits were likely unrelated to the game, the massive scale of the event means that a significant share of the visit growth was likely driven by out-of-town soccer fans. Analyzing these patterns Atlanta can provide valuable insights for hospitality stakeholders looking to attract attendees of major sporting events.
Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest boost during the week of the event, with visits 20.8% higher than the weekly visit average between January and September 2024. Midscale and Upscale hotels also experienced significant visit increases of 15.8% and 14.0%, respectively. During the same period, visits to Luxury hotels grew by 9.0% and Economy Hotel visits rose by 7.0% compared to the January to September 2024 weekly average. Meanwhile Upper Upscale Hotels received the smallest boost, with visits up by 2.9%.
Judging by these travel patterns, it appears that most Copa América spectators prefer to stay at Midscale, Upper Midscale, or Upscale hotels during the trip.
While Upper Midscale Hotels in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta metro area generally experienced the biggest visit boost during the Copa América, visit performance varied somewhat from chain to chain. TownePlace Suites and Fairfield Inn, both Upper Midscale Marriott properties, saw increases of 27.5% and 25.3%, respectively, compared to their January to September 2024 weekly averages. Other chains in the tier also enjoyed visit boosts – visits to Home2 Suites by Hilton and Hampton Inn – both Hilton chains – jumped by 17.3% and 17.4%, respectively, during the same period.
The popularity of these Upper Midscale hotels may be driven by a multitude of factors. Some, like TownePlace Suites and Home2 Suites offer kitchenettes, something that may appeal to visitors looking to save by preparing their own meals. Others, such as Fairfield Inn and Hampton Inn which offer more locations closer to the stadium may attract visitors that prioritize convenience.
Layering the STI: PopStats dataset onto Placer.ai’s captured market can provide insights into Copa América attendees by revealing the demographic attributes of census block groups (CBGs) contributing visitors to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. (The CBGs feeding visitors to a chain or venue, weighted to reflect the share of visitors from each one, are collectively referred to as the business’ captured market.)
During the Copa América opener,Mercedes-Benz Stadium drew visitors from CBGs with a median household income (HHI) of $90.0K – well above the national median of $76.1K and similar to the median HHI during the Taylor Swift concert ($90.6K). The stadium’s trade area median HHI was even higher during the Super Bowl ($117.9K).
This visitor profile suggests that Copa América attendees – along with guests of other major cultural and sporting events – often have the means to splurge on comfortable, mid-range hotels for their stays. As Atlanta gears up to host the College Football National Championship in January 2025, the 62nd Super Bowl in February 2028, and the MLB All Star Game in July 2025, along with a host of smaller-scale events – the city can draw on historical data from past events, including the Copa América, to better understand the needs and preferences of stadium visitors and plan accordingly.
And although Upper Upscale hotels generally experienced relatively subdued growth during the Atlanta Copa América opener, some Upper Upscale properties – including Marriott’s Autograph Collection Twelve Downtown, saw visits jump. Visits to the hotel were up 19.7% during the week of the Copa América compared to the January to September 2024 weekly average.
The Twelve Downtown has become a popular lodging choice for major events in the city, likely due to its proximity to Mercedes-Benz Stadium. (The hotel is located just over a mile away from the stadium). During the Super Bowl LIII five years ago, the Twelve Downtown drew 27.9% more visits than its weekly average for January to September 2019. And during the 2023 Taylor Swift concert, the hotel saw a 25.5% visit bump.
A closer look at the median HHI of the hotel’s captured market during the three periods reveals that, despite each event attracting visitors from varying income brackets, the median HHI of visitors to the Twelve Downtown remained stable. Visitors to the hotel between January and September 2024 came from trade areas where the median HHI was $76.2K, not far off from the median HHI during the 2019 Super Bowl ($75.4K), Taylor Swift’s 2023 concert ($80.6K) and the Copa América ($76.7K).
This stability suggests that, regardless of the event, hotels attract a specific visitor base. And understanding the similarities within the demographic profiles of likely hotel visitors during different events will be key for hotels at all levels seeking to capitalize on the economic opportunities created by major local events.
The Mountain region offers employment opportunities, affordable housing, outdoors recreation, and a relatively low cost of living – which could explain why these states are emerging as major domestic migration hubs. Idaho, Nevada and Wyoming in particular have consistently attracted inbound domestic migration in recent years, as Americans continue leaving higher density regions in search of greener – and calmer – pastures.
This report uses various datasets from the Placer.ai Migration Trends Report to analyze domestic migration to Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming. Where are people coming from? And how is recent migration impacting local population centers in these states? Keep reading to find out.
Idaho emerged as a domestic migration hotspot over the pandemic, as many Americans freed from the obligation of in-person work relocated to the Gem State. Between June 2020 and June 2024, Idaho saw positive net migration of 4.7%, more than any other state in the U.S. (This metric measures the number of people moving to a state minus the number of people leaving – expressed as a percentage of the state’s total population.) And between 2023 and 2024, Idaho remained the nation’s top domestic migration performer (see map above).
Diving into the data reveals that though people moved to Idaho from across the U.S., most of Idaho’s influx over the past four years came from neighboring West Coast and Mountain States – especially California. Former residents of the Golden State accounted for a whopping 58.1% of inbound migrants to Idaho over the analyzed period.
California’s position as the top feeder of relocators to Idaho during the analyzed period may come as no surprise, given the state’s recent population outflow and the many former California residents who have settled in the Mountain region. But Washington, Oregon, and Nevada – where inbound and outbound migration remained relatively even in recent years – have also been seeing shifts to Idaho.
Idaho has a lower tax burden, robust employment opportunities, and greater overall affordability than its top four feeder states. So some of the recent relocators likely moved to the Gem State to enjoy better economic opportunities while staying relatively close to their states of origin. And these recent Idahoans may be reshaping Idaho’s demographic and economic landscape in the process.
Most inbound migration to Idaho is concentrated in the state’s metro areas, with Boise – the capital of Idaho and the major city closest to California – consistently absorbing the highest share of net inbound migration.
But recently, other CBSAs have emerged as key destinations for new Idahoans. The location of two emerging domestic relocation hubs in particular suggests that many new Idaho residents may be looking to stay close to their areas of origin: Coeur d’Alene, located near the border with Washington, attracts its largest contingent of new residents from the Spokane, WA metro area, while Twin Falls’ top feeder area is the Elko CBSA in northern Nevada.
Twin Falls in southern Idaho has a strong job market – and has received a substantial share of inbound domestic migration over the past three years. Coeur d’Alene is also flush with economic opportunities, and after declining steadily for several years, the share of relocators heading to the metro area increased to 20.7% between June 2023 and 2024.
The chart above also reveals that the share of inbound migration heading to Boise declined slightly between June 2023 and June 2024 – following a period of consistent growth between June 2020 and June 2023 – even as the share of migration to Coeur d’Alene ballooned. This may mean that, although the state’s largest metro area may have reached its saturation point, other areas in the state are still primed to receive inbound migration.
While Nevada is losing some of its population to nearby Idaho, the Silver State is also gaining new residents of its own: Between September 2020 and September 2024, the Silver State experienced positive net migration of 3.3%. And the data indicates that many new Nevadans are choosing to settle in the state's rapidly growing suburban centers.
Zooming into the Las Vegas-Henderson CBSA reveals that much of the growth is concentrated outside the main city of Las Vegas. Instead, the more suburban cities of Enterprise, Henderson, and North Las Vegas received the largest migration bump – with Henderson and North Las Vegas’ population now surpassing that of Reno. And while year-over-year migration trends suggest that the growth is beginning to stabilize, Enterprise and Henderson are still growing significantly faster than the CBSA as a whole – indicating that the suburbs continue to draw Nevada newcomers.
Analyzing the inbound domestic migration to Enterprise – one of the fastest growing areas in the country – may shed light on the aspects of suburban Las Vegas that are driving population growth.
Many new Enterprise residents moved to the city from elsewhere in Nevada, while most out-of-state newcomers came from California or Hawaii – mirroring the migration patterns for Nevada as a whole. And according to the Niche Neighborhood Grades dataset, Enterprise is a good fit for retirees and young professionals alike, with the city ranking higher than its feeder areas with regard to a range of factors – from jobs and commute to weather.
Like with migration to the rest of the Mountain region, domestic migration to Nevada – particularly to suburban areas like Enterprise and Henderson – is likely driven by newcomers looking for more economic opportunities along with higher quality of life.
Wyoming – currently the least populous state in the country – is another Mountain region state where inbound migration is driving up the population numbers. But in the Cowboy State, urban areas – as opposed to suburban ones – seem to be the main magnets for population growth.
The Cheyenne, Wyoming CBSA – home to Wyoming’s capital – is the largest metro area in the state. And analyzing the CBSA’s population trends over the past six years reveals a recent shift in Wyoming’s inbound migration patterns.
Cheyenne’s population is mostly suburban, and the CBSA’s suburban areas remain popular with newcomers – suburban Cheyenne has also seen steady population growth since January 2018. But when the CBSA became a popular relocation destination over the pandemic, many newcomers to the Cheyenne region chose to move to metro area’s more rural areas: By April 2022, Cheyenne’s rural population had jumped by 10.8% compared to a January 2018 baseline, compared to a 5.9% and 3.9% increase in the CBSA’s suburban and urban populations, respectively.
As the country opened back up, however, the number of rural Cheyenne residents dropped back down – and by September 2024, Cheyenne’s rural population was only 0.1% bigger than it had been in January 2018. The population growth in suburban Cheyenne also slowed down, with the September 2024 suburban population numbers more or less on par with the April 2022 figures.
Now, Cheyenne’s urban areas have overtaken both rural and suburban areas in terms of population growth: In September 2024, Cheyenne’s urban population was 9.4% bigger than in January 2018, compared to 5.2% and 0.1% growth for the suburban and urban areas, respectively.
Despite the growth in Cheyenne’s urban population, the suburbs still remain the most populous – as of September 2024, 71.2% of the CBSA’s population resided in suburban areas. But the continued growth of Cheyenne’s urban population may reflect a rising demand among Wyomingites for amenities and economic opportunities unavailable elsewhere in the state, mirroring the trend in Idaho’s urban CBSAs such as Boise and Coeur d'Alene.
Cheyenne’s urban growth could be partially due to shifts in migration patterns. At the height of the pandemic, most newcomers to Cheyenne were coming from out of state, perhaps drawn by the quiet and spaciousness of rural Wyoming. But since 2022, the share of migration to Cheyenne from within Wyoming has grown – coinciding with the population increase in its urban areas and suggesting that Cheyenne's amenities are attracting more residents statewide.
This growing intra-state migration to Cheyenne’s urban areas underscores the city’s evolving role as a hub within Wyoming, appealing not just to newcomers from outside the state but increasingly to Wyoming residents seeking the benefits of a more urban lifestyle relative to the rest of the state.
The Mountain States are solidifying their status as key migration hubs in the U.S., driven by economic opportunities, affordable living, and lifestyle appeal. Between September 2023 and September 2024, Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming all experienced significant population growth due to inbound domestic migration. In Idaho, newcomers from neighboring states are boosting the population of the Gem State’s major metro areas. Meanwhile the Cheyenne, Wyoming, CBSA is emerging as a focal point for intra-state migration, with urban Cheyenne seeing particularly pronounced growth. And in Nevada, suburban hubs like Henderson and Enterprise are welcoming new arrivals seeking a balance of suburban comfort and economic potential. With the cost of living continuing to increase – and the Mountain region offering something for everyone through its various states – Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming are likely to remain top migration destinations in 2025 and beyond.
