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How did the home improvement and decor segments fare in the first months of 2024? We checked in with some of the categories’ biggest names – including Home Depot, Lowe’s, Tractor Supply Co., Harbor Freight Tools, Homesense, HomeGoods, and At Home – to see what Q1 portends for their performance the rest of the year.
Last year was a challenging one for the home improvement space – as consumers cut back on discretionary spending and put pricey renovations on hold. But Q1 2024 visit data suggests that the category may be ready for a comeback. Throughout Q1 2024, Lowe’s saw its monthly visit gap narrow steadily – and in April 2024 saw the first YoY visit uptick the chain has experienced since 2021. And YoY visits to Home Depot were down just 0.3% in February 2024 and up 1.0% in March. Though Home Depot saw a minor visit gap emerge once again in April, the home improvement powerhouse appears to be on solid footing heading into the spring season.
While Home Depot and Lowe’s are rebounding, other home improvement chains are thriving. Discount chain Harbor Freight Tools continued to grow its footprint – and its visits – by expanding into new markets and cementing its role as a go-to destination for inexpensive home maintenance supplies. And farming essentials retailer Tractor Supply Co. also increased its store count together with its traffic. By occupying somewhat less discretionary niches, these two retailers have managed to avoid some of the headwinds plaguing the category.
The home decor segment, including brands like Homesense, HomeGoods (both owned by parent company TJX Companies), and At Home, offers consumers a way to enhance their living spaces while avoiding the high costs associated with renovations or moving. And in Q1 2024, shoppers leaned into the category’s offerings.
Despite lapping a strong 2023, Homesense – which recently decided to close its ecommerce channel and focus on offline expansion – saw YoY visit growth throughout Q1. And though inclement weather weighed on HomeGoods’ and At Home’s January performance, YoY visits to the two brands increased or remained stable in February and March. In April 2024, all three chains held steady with slight YoY visit gaps – no small feat given the category’s largely discretionary nature.
Indeed, diving into the demographics of visitors to Homesense, HomeGoods, and At Home reveals that it is more affluent consumers that are driving visits to the three chains. Each chain's potential market* boasts a median household income (HHI) close to or above the nationwide median of $76.1K/year. But the median HHI of each chain’s captured market is notably higher – suggesting it is the wealthiest consumer segments in each chain’s trade area that are visiting the brands.
*A chain’s potential market refers to the population residing in a given trade area, where the Census Block Groups (CBGs) making up the trade area are weighted to reflect the number of households in each CBG. A chain’s captured market weighs each CBG according to the actual number of visits originating to the chain from that CBG.
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Home improvement and decor chains have seen their shares of ups and downs over the past few years, from pandemic highs to inflationary lows. And while some players thrived in Q1 2024, others weathered headwinds while maintaining their equilibrium. How will the space continue to fare as 2024 progresses?
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The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
Recent survey data shows that while most people don’t want to go back to the office five days a week, they also don’t want to be fully remote. Many employees – and companies – prefer a middle-of-the-road approach that balances flexibility with opportunities for in-person engagement, learning, and collaboration.
But what’s happening on the ground? We checked in with our Nationwide and regional Office Indexes to find out.
Last month saw a continuation of the positive office recovery momentum observed in February and March 2024. April 2024 office visits were just 32.2% below what they were in the equivalent period of 2019 (pre-pandemic), and nearly the highest they’ve been since COVID. Comparing monthly visits to an April 2019 baseline also shows that April 2024 was outperformed only by August 2023 – a rare month featuring 23 business days. (April 2024 had 22 business days – as did April 2019).
Drilling down into the data for major regional hubs shows Miami and New York solidifying their office recovery leads with respective pre-COVID visit gaps of just 14.0% and 16.9%. But these weren’t the only cities to shine: Washington, D.C., Dallas, and Atlanta also outperformed the nationwide baseline – and like Miami, experienced their single busiest in-office months since COVID.
All the analyzed regional hubs saw significant YoY office visit growth – with the prize once again going to San Francisco, where visits were up 26.0%. Though San Francisco still lags significantly behind other regional hubs compared to pre-COVID, the city’s persistent YoY office visit growth may signal a light at the end of the Golden Gate City’s commercial real estate tunnel.
To be fair, April 2023 had two less business days than April 2024 – a fact that may have served to amplify YoY growth trends across the board. But even accounting for this discrepancy, last month’s strong office recovery was a particularly strong one – showing that RTO remains very much a work in progress.
The benefits and drawbacks of remote work are still being debated. But no matter how you slice it, spending some time in the office each week seems to have its benefits. As companies and employees continue to negotiate the new hybrid status quo, office visit patterns will continue to shift nationwide.
Follow Placer.ai for more data-driven office insights.
We dove into the latest foot traffic analytics for leading movie theater chains – AMC Theatres, Regal Cinemas, and Cinemark – to uncover how recent consumer behavior and visitor demographics are setting the stage for the cinema category’s next chapter.
Cinemas have yet to reclaim their pre-COVID glory – and during the first few months of 2024, visits to AMC and Regal, and to a lesser extent Cinemark, remained substantially below 2019 levels. While some of these visit gaps can be attributed to exhibitors downsizing their real estate portfolios, the rise in at-home entertainment continues to impact pre-pandemic foot traffic comparisons.
In addition, since the pandemic, blockbuster releases have taken on even greater importance as drivers of movie theater visit spikes. And in early 2024, a relative absence of new blockbusters took its toll on theater operators’ performance. Between January and April 2024, cinema leaders saw YoY visit dips – likely attributable in part to delayed releases. And smash-hit titles that drove box-office success in early 2023 – including Avatar: The Way of Water, Ant Man, and The Super Mario Bros. Movie – helped set the stage for challenging YoY comparisons.
Despite these visit gaps, analysis of changing visitor demographics suggests that there remain a variety of ways for theater operators to succeed.
Analyzing cinema leaders’ captured markets with demographics from STI: PopStats shows that today’s movie-goers are more affluent than they were before COVID. After dipping in Q1 2023, the median household incomes (HHIs) of AMC, Regal Cinema, and Cinemark’s captured markets spiked in Q1 2024, surpassing the chains’ own pre-pandemic benchmarks. This shift may be due in part to discretionary spending cutbacks by less affluent consumers – who may be particularly inclined to hold off on going to the movies when there are no big releases on offer.
For exhibitors, the increase in visitors’ spending power presents an important opportunity: Affluent movie-goers are likely to spend more on revenue-boosting concessions and premium formats, a boon for theater chains at a time when visit gaps linger.
Five years after COVID sent movie theaters into a tailspin, the category is holding its own. Though routine visits remain lower than they were before the pandemic, a shifting customer base continues to provide operators with new avenues for success.
For more data-driven entertainment insights, visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The fitness industry has experienced steady growth in recent years, propelled by consumers’ prioritization of health and wellness – and gyms across the country are benefiting.
So with 2024 underway, we dove into the data to examine the segment’s performance during the first months of the year. Did Fitness’ strong January showing persist beyond the season of new year’s resolutions? And how did major gym chains – including Planet Fitness, Life Time, Crunch Fitness, and EōS – perform in Q1 2024 relative to last year?
Fitness has been a consistent success story over the past few years, and the category is showing no signs of slowing down. Year-over-year (YoY) visits to the industry were up nearly every week between January and April 2024, with the sole exception of the week of January 15th, when an Arctic blast saw many people hunkering down indoors. And visits remained slightly elevated even during the week of March 25th, when Easter celebrations likely distracted many people from their gym goals – an impressive feat given the comparison to a non-holiday week in 2023.
Drilling down into visit trends for eight major fitness chains shows that in today’s robust fitness environment, there’s enough demand to sustain a variety of chains: Both premium and mid-range options like Life Time and LA Fitness as well as more affordable choices like Planet Fitness and Crunch Fitness saw visits increase or remain steady for most of Q1 – and all saw YoY visit bumps in April.
Some gym-goers hit the gym several times a week and spend hours working out, while others have a more relaxed get-in-shape schedule. And analyzing leading chains’ visitation patterns shows that gyms are finding success by catering to fitness buffs’ varying preferences.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the data reveals a strong correlation between a chain’s share of frequent visitors (i.e. those visiting the gym eight or more times in a month), and a chain’s share of visitors staying longer than 90 minutes. While some clubs, including Life Time and EōS appear to attract highly dedicated gym-goers, others, including Planet Fitness and Anytime Fitness, seem to draw more casual visitors.
The fact that both fitness chains attracting frequent visitors for longer workouts and gyms that cater to more casual exercisers who spend less time in the gym during each session are seeing positive visitation trends indicates that there are plenty of models for fitness success in 2024.
One thing seems clear – interest in gyms is not going away anytime soon. Visits continue to show YoY growth, and the industry is full of options for every kind of fitness enthusiast. Whether opting for occasional visits or adhering to a structured workout regimen – there’s something for everyone.
To stay ahead of the latest retail and fitness developments, visit placer.ai/blog.
Following a busy week of Q1 2024 updates several restaurant chains, the key question facing operators is whether menu price increases the past several years have forced consumers into alternative food retail channels. Several restaurant chains--most notably McDonald’s–highlighted a more “discriminating” consumer during their quarterly updates. According McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski on the company’s Q1 2024 update this week: “U.S. consumers continued to be even more discriminating with every dollar that they spend as they faced elevated prices in their day-to-day spending which is putting pressure on the QSR industry.” In turn, this has resulted in flat-to-declining industry traffic in the U.S. during the quarter. Looking at year-to-date visitation trends across the different restaurant categories, we see a weak start to the year due to inclement weather, followed by a rebound to low-single-digit growth for the limited-service categories (QSR and fast casual) and low-single-digit declines for the full-service restaurant chains.
As we discuss throughout this week’s Anchor report, consumers will likely remain discriminating over the next several quarters. As such, we expect a continuation of the channel shifts we’ve been witnessing across the broader food retail sector. According to our data, the QSR category saw a +5% increase in visits from 2019-2023, while the full-service restaurant category saw a -8% decrease in visits (partly explained by the permanent closure of many smaller, regional full-service dining chains). Conversely, the grocery, superstore, convenience store, and dollar/discount stores have all seen meaningfully higher visit growth over the same period (as our friends at Restaurant Business have also called out), indicating these channels are taking share from the restaurant industry.
Looking at McDonald’s cross-visitation trends during the quarter, we see further evidence of this shift. We’ve compared the favorite grocery chains of McDonald’s visitors in Q1 2024 to Q1 2023 below. We see a material increase in the percentage of McDonald’s visitors that visited an Aldi location year-over-year–24% versus 17% in the year ago period. We also see a decrease in percentage of visits to most conventional grocery chains.
Not surprisingly, McDonald’s plans to accentuate its value offerings in the coming quarters. On its update call, management noted that 90% of its U.S. locations offer meal bundles for $4 or less and that it has been running several promotions through its digital app. The company also noted the need to align around a strong national value proposition so that the company can use its tremendous media scale to drive high consumer awareness. It will likely take time for McDonald’s to organize around its value platform, but once it does start to promote its value offerings on a nationwide basis, we would expect much of the rest of the QSR category to follow suit.
This weekend, Formula 1 is once again ready to take the track in the United States, this time at the Miami Grand Prix on Sunday. The Miami Grand Prix is the first U.S. race in the 2024 calendar, followed by the U.S. Grand Prix in Austin, Texas and the Las Vegas Grand Prix in the fall.
America has grown into the new epicenter of the sport and is the only country besides Italy to host multiple races in a singular season. Not only does the U.S. host races, but countless American retail, tech, CPG and hospitality brands serve as team sponsors, including Marriott, Rokt, Tommy Hilfiger, Google, eBay, Coca Cola and more. For brands looking at the consumption habits of younger, more affluent consumers, the rise of Formula 1 in the U.S. can help unlock insights on this group. Credit for Formula 1’s exponential growth in popularity is largely due to the Netflix docuseries, Drive to Survive, which just released its sixth season in the first quarter of 2024. According to Netflix, over 90 million hours of the program were watched throughout the first half of last year. The immense popularity of the show and its behind the scenes access to the luxurious world of F1 generated a large demand for the sport by Americans, and the appetite for home grown F1 races where U.S. based fans can participate is palpable.
2024 is the third running of the Miami Grand Prix, held around Hard Rock Stadium, with the event debuting in 2022. According to Placer.ai data, traffic at the event, which usually runs Thursday-Sunday, in 2023 increased 3% compared to 2022. Usually during grand prix weekends, visitors have the option to purchase single or multi-day passes, and our data (as shown below) indicates that there were fewer repeat visits in 2023 compared to 2022; consumers may have chosen single day passes more often or made the event a part of a larger weekend in Miami. The highest number of visits occurred on Sunday each year, which aligns with the fact that the actual race takes place that day, with practice sessions and qualifying taking place on Friday and Saturday respectively.
Despite slightly fewer loyal visits during the weekend, the time spent at the event increased, with an average of 179 minutes, up 4% year-over-year. With consumers spending around three hours at the venue, there is a huge opportunity for American CPG and retail companies to engage with this captive audience.
The U.S. Grand Prix, held annually in Austin, has seen similar success from the influx of American F1 fans. Traffic at the 2023 event weekend grew by 38% compared to 2019. 2022 saw peak event attendance, most likely due to a competitive and exhilarating end to the 2021 season that bled into the next year. 2023 also saw the highest percentage of three-day visits during the weekend, highlighting that most U.S. Grand Prix attendees visit the track multiple days for the various race weekend events.
While the growth of the event itself is impressive, the change in visitor demographics provides an even more striking opportunity for American retailers and brands. 2023 brought the highest percentage of visits from young professionals and young urban singles compared to all other segments in 2023. Young professionals also grew to 36% of visits in 2023 from less than 30% in 2019, showcasing the rise in younger and more affluent visitors. Both the popularity of Netflix coupled with the increase in influencer marketing brand trips to races may both have contributed to this shift over time.
It’s clear that Formula 1’s growing popularity has no doubt fueled race expansion stateside and that has been able to capture the attention of the elusive younger consumer, especially those with disposable income. Brands, licensees and retailers have all jumped on the opportunity to collaborate with drivers, teams and race weekends to tap into this growth market. Sporting events are a highly competitive landscape, excuse the pun, but the intersection of sports and content have paved the way for Formula 1’s success in the U.S.
Placer.ai observes a panel of mobile devices in order to extrapolate and generate visitation insights for a variety of locations across the U.S. This panel covers only visitors from within the United States and does not represent or take into account international visitors.
Downtown districts in the nation’s major cities attract domestic travelers all year long with their iconic sights, lively entertainment, and diverse dining offerings. But each hub follows its own rhythm, shaped by distinct seasonal peaks and dips in visitor flow.
This white paper examines downtown hotel visitation patterns in four of the nation’s most popular destinations for domestic tourists: Miami, Chicago, New York, and Los Angeles. Focusing on 20 downtown hotels in each city, the analysis explores seasonal variations in domestic travel, city-specific dynamics, and differentiating factors.
Domestic tourism has rebounded strongly in recent years, and hotels in Miami and Chicago have been the biggest beneficiaries. In 2024, visits to analyzed hotels in each of these cities’ downtown areas grew by 8.9% and 7.4%, respectively, compared to 2023. Meanwhile, hotels in downtown and midtown Manhattan saw a more modest 2.0% increase, while Los Angeles experienced a slight year-over-year (YoY) decline in downtown hotel visits.
One factor that may be driving Miami and Chicago’s stronger performance is their higher proportion of long-distance visitors, defined as those visiting from over 250 miles away. Miami remains a top destination for snowbirds and spring breakers, while Chicago serves as a cultural and entertainment hub for the sprawling Midwest. These long-distance leisure travelers may be more likely to splurge on downtown hotel stays during their trips, helping drive hotel visit growth in the two cities.
By contrast, hotels in the Los Angeles and Manhattan city centers drew lower shares of domestic travelers coming from less than 250 miles away. These shorter-haul domestic tourists may be less likely to splurge on downtown hotels than those taking longer vacations. Both cities are also surrounded by numerous regional getaway options that can draw long-haul leisure travelers away from their downtown cores.
Each of the four analyzed cities has its own unique ebbs and flows – and city center hotel visits reflect these patterns. Miami, with its warm, sunny climate, experiences influxes of tourists during the winter and spring, with March seeing the biggest jump in downtown hotel visits last year (13.0% above the monthly visit average). Chicago, which thrives in the summer with its many festivals and events, saw its biggest downtown hotel visit bump in August. Meanwhile, Manhattan experienced a major uptick in December, likely fueled by holiday tourism and New Year celebrations, and Los Angeles visits were highest in the summertime.
What drives these seasonal visit peaks? Miami has long been a top tourism destination, especially in early spring, when snowbirds and spring breakers flock to the city for sun and relaxation. In recent years, the city has seen a rise in short-term domestic tourism, suggesting that the city is becoming increasingly popular for weekend getaways. According to the Placer.ai Tourism Dashboard, the share of domestic tourists staying just one or two nights grew from 71.7% in March 2022 to 78.3% in March 2024.
This shift aligns with an impressive increase in the magnitude of downtown Miami’s springtime hotel visit peak: In March 2022, visits to downtown hotels were 5.0% above the monthly average for the year, a share that more than doubled by 2024 to 12.9%.
These numbers may mean that more people are choosing to head to Miami for a quick break from the cold – and staying in downtown hotels to make the most of their short getaway.
Chicago’s major August visit spike was likely driven by the Windy City’s impressive lineup of major summer festivals, from Lollapalooza to the Chicago Air and Water Show, which draw thousands of attendees from across the country.
Lollapalooza fueled the largest visit spike to the city – between Thursday, August 1st and Sunday, August 4th, visits to downtown Chicago hotels surged between 51.1% and 63.8% above 2024 daily averages for those days of the week. The Air and Water Show and the Chicago Jazz Festival also generated significant hotel visit increases – highlighting the boost these events bring to the city’s tourism and hospitality sector.
The Big Apple draws a diverse mix of visitors throughout the year. But in December – the city’s peak tourist season – visitors pour in from all over the country to skate in Rockefeller Center, browse Fifth Avenue’s festive window displays and experience the city’s unique holiday magic.
And analyzing data from hotels in midtown and downtown Manhattan reveals a striking shift in the types of visitors who stay in the heart of NYC during the holiday season. While visitors from other urban centers dominated downtown hotel stays throughout most of the year – accounting for 47.9% of visits from January to November 2024 – their share dropped to 42.0% in December 2024. Meanwhile, the share of guests from suburban areas and small towns rose from 37.3% to 41.0%, and the share of guests from rural and semi-rural areas nearly doubled, from 3.5% to 6.1%.
These patterns suggest that, though Manhattan typically attracts a wide range of visitors, the holiday season is uniquely appealing to tourists from smaller towns and suburban areas. Understanding these trends can provide crucial context for hotels and civic stakeholders alike as they work to maximize the opportunities presented by the city’s December visit surge.
Los Angeles hotels also experience significant demographic shifts during peak season. In July, visits to downtown LA hotels surged by 15.3% relative to the 2024 monthly visit average. And a closer look at audience segmentation data suggests a corresponding surge in the share of "Flourishing Families" – an Experian: Mosaic segment consisting of affluent, middle-aged households with children. Throughout the year, "Flourishing Families" comprised between 7.7% and 8.7% of the census block groups (CBGs) driving visits to downtown LA hotels. But in July, this share jumped to 9.9%.
These families may be taking advantage of summer vacations to enjoy Los Angeles’ cultural attractions and entertainment. Hotels and city stakeholders who understand the appeal the city holds for this demographic can better cater to them through family-friendly promotions and strategic marketing efforts to target these households.
Downtowns are making a comeback – and hotels in the heart of the nation’s major tourist hubs are reaping the benefits. By understanding who frequents these downtown hotels and when, local businesses and civic leaders can optimize their resource management and strategic planning to make the most of these opportunities.
The New York office scene is buzzing once again, as companies from JPMorgan to Meta double down on return-to-office (RTO) mandates. But just how did New York office foot traffic fare in 2024? How did Big Apple office foot traffic compare to that of other major business hubs nationwide? And how is New York’s office recovery impacting post-COVID trends like the TGIF work week? Are office visits still concentrated mid-week, or are people coming in more on Fridays and Mondays? And how has Manhattan’s RTO affected local commuting patterns?
We dove into the data to find out.
In 2024, New York City cemented its position as the nationwide leader in office recovery. Thanks in part to remote work crackdowns by banking behemoths like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, visits to NYC office buildings in 2024 were just 13.1% below pre-pandemic (2019) levels.
For comparison, Miami’s office foot traffic remained 16.2% below pre-pandemic levels, while Atlanta, Washington D.C., and Boston saw significantly larger gaps at 28.6%, 37.8%, and 43.9%, respectively.
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the Big Apple’s robust year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) recovery, the pace of year-over-year (YoY) visit growth to NYC office buildings was somewhat slower in 2024 than in other major East Coast business centers. Still, New York’s YoY office recovery rate of 12.4% outpaced the nationwide baseline, and came in just slightly below Washington, D.C.’s 15.2% and Atlanta’s 14.6%.
Interestingly, New York’s return to office has not led to a significant retreat from the TGIF work week that emerged during COVID. In 2024, just 11.9% of weekday (Monday to Friday) visits to NYC offices took place on Fridays – only slightly more than the 11.5% recorded in 2023 and significantly below the pre-pandemic baseline of 17.2%.
Meanwhile, Monday has quietly regained its footing as the dreaded start of the New York work week. After dropping significantly in 2022 and 2023, the share of weekday office visits taking place on Mondays rebounded to 18.2% in 2024 – just slightly below 2019’s 19.5%. Still, Tuesday remained the Big Apple’s busiest in-office day of the week last year, accounting for nearly a quarter (24.6%) of weekday NYC office foot traffic.
And diving into Yo5Y data for each day of the work week shows just how much New York’s overall recovery is driven by mid-week visits – and especially Tuesday ones. In 2024, Friday visits to NYC office buildings were down 40.2% compared to 2019. But on Tuesdays, visits were essentially on par with pre-pandemic levels (-0.3%), even as nationwide office visits remained 24.6% below 2019.
Another post-COVID trend that has shown staying power in New York is the growing share of office visits coming from employees who live nearby. As hybrid schedules become the norm, it seems that those commuting more frequently are often just a short subway ride -or even a stroll- away.
The share of NYC office workers coming from less than five miles away, for example, has risen steadily since COVID, reaching 46.0% in 2024. Over the same period, the share of workers coming from 5-10 miles, 10-15 miles, or 25+ miles away has declined.
Looking at commuting trends across the East Coast helps put New York City’s shift into perspective. In 2019, NYC’s share of nearby commuters was on par with Washington, D.C. and slightly below Boston. But while both cities experienced moderate increases in local commuters between 2019 and 2024, New York pulled ahead, outpacing all other analyzed cities in its share of nearby office workers last year.
Miami and Atlanta – two other standout cities in office recovery – also saw significant growth in the percentage of short-distance commuters over the past five years. This trend underscores a broader shift: As hybrid work reshapes commuting habits, employees across multiple markets are more likely to go into the office if they live nearby, reducing reliance on long-haul commutes.
As the nation’s office recovery leader, New York offers a glimpse into what other cities can expect as office visitation rates continue to improve. Even at just 13.1% below pre-pandemic levels, NYC office visit levels continue to rise. And as recovery nears completion, trends that took hold during COVID remain firmly entrenched.
The full-service dining segment has experienced its fair share of challenges over the past few years, with pandemic-era closures, rising food and labor costs, and cutbacks in discretionary spending contributing to visit lags. In 2024, visits were down 0.2% year over year (YoY) and remained 8.4% below 2019 levels – a reflection of the significant number of venues that permanently closed over COVID and a testament to the industry's ongoing struggle to regain its pre-pandemic footing.
Yet, even in a difficult environment, some full-service restaurant (FSR) chains are thriving. These brands aren’t waiting for the industry to rebound – they're becoming trendsetters in their own right, proving that stand-out strategy is everything in a challenging market.
This white paper explores brands that are harnessing three key differentiators – fixed-price value offerings, elevated social experiences, and a laser focus on product – to drive full-service dining success in 2025.
One of the most defining trends over the past few years has been the unrelenting march of price increases. And as consumers continue to seek out ways to save, some chains are staying ahead of the pack with fixed-price value offerings that help diners squeeze out the very best bang for their buck.
Golden Corral, the all-you-can-eat buffet chain that lets kids under three eat for free, is one FSR that is benefiting from consumers’ current value orientation. Despite closing several locations in 2024, overall visits to the chain still tracked closely with 2023 levels, declining by just 0.5% – while the average number visits to each Golden Corral restaurant grew 3.8% YoY.
Golden Corral’s value proposition is resonating strongly with budget-conscious Americans eager to enjoy a wide variety of comfort foods at an affordable price. The chain’s visitors tend to come from trade areas with lower median household incomes (HHIs) than traditional full-service restaurant (FSR) diners. And these patrons are willing to travel to enjoy the chain’s value buffet offerings, many of which are situated in rural areas and may require a longer drive. In 2024, 25.2% of Golden Corral’s diners came from over 30 miles away – compared to just 19.2% for the wider FSR segment.
Golden Corral’s continued flourishing proves that in an era of rising costs, diners are willing to go the extra mile (literally) for a restaurant that delivers both quality and affordability.
Children’s party space and eatertainment destination Chuck E. Cheese has had a transformative few years. Following the retirement of its iconic animatronic band, the chain shifted its focus to a new membership model, announcing a revamped Summer of Fun pass in May 2024 – including unlimited visits over a two-month period, steep discounts on food, and up to 250 games per day. The pass proved incredibly popular, with YoY visits surging by 15.6% in May 2024, when the offer launched – a sharp turnaround from the YoY visit declines of the previous months. Recognizing the strong demand, Chuck E. Cheese extended the program year-round – and the strategy has paid off as YoY visits remained positive through the end of 2024.
A closer look at the data suggests that parents are making full use of their unlimited passes: The share of weekday visits was higher in H2 2024 than in H2 2023, likely due to families using their passes for weekday entertainment rather than reserving visits for weekends and special occasions.
At the same time, the share of repeat visitors – those frequenting the chain at least twice a month – also grew. Although these repeat visitors may not purchase additional gameplay beyond the flat fee, their more frequent on-site presence likely translates into increased sales of pizza and other menu items.
While value has been a major motivator for restaurant-goers in recent years, low prices aren’t the only drivers of FSR success. Brands offering unique experiences aimed at maximizing social interaction are also seeing outsized gains.
Though many of these more innovative venues tend to be on the more expensive side, they draw enthusiastic crowds willing to pony up for concepts that combine good food with fun social occasions. And some of the more successful ones bolster perceived value through offerings like fixed-price menus or club memberships.
Korean cuisine has been on the rise in recent years, with restaurants like Bonchon Chicken and GEN Korean BBQ House making significant waves in the dining space. Another chain drawing attention is KPOT Korean BBQ and Hot Pot, which began modestly in 2018 and has since expanded to over 150 locations nationwide.
Diners at KPOT can customize their meals by selecting from a variety of proteins, broths, sauces, and side dishes, known as banchan, while barbecuing or cooking in a hotpot at their table and sipping on the drinks from the menu’s extensive selection. And though pricier than Golden Corral, KPOT also offers an all-you-can-eat experience that lets customers squeeze the most value out of their indulgence.
Location intelligence shows that KPOT’s experiential dining model is resonating with customers: Since Q4 2019, the average number of visits to each KPOT location has risen steadily – even as the chain has grown its footprint – while the average dwell time has also increased. Indeed, rather than a quick dining stop, KPOT has become a destination for guests to linger, enjoying both food and drinks – and an interactive and social experience.
By positioning themselves as gathering places for fine wine aficionados, wine-club-focused concepts such as Postino WineCafe and Cooper’s Hawk Winery are also benefiting from today’s consumers’ emphasis on social experiences. The two upscale dining destinations offer club memberships that combine periodic wine releases with a variety of perks.
And the data suggests that the model is strongly resonating with diners. Both Postino and Cooper’s Hawk have grown their footprints over the past year, driving substantial YoY chain-wide visit increases while average visits per location grew as well – showing that the expansions and experiential offerings are meeting robust demand.
And analyzing the two chains’ captured markets shows that the wine club model enjoys broad appeal across a variety of audience segments.
Unsurprisingly, both wine clubs’ visitor bases include higher-than-average shares of affluent consumers with money to spend, including Experian: Mosaic’s “Power Elite”, “Booming with Confidence”, and “Flourishing Families” segments (the nation’s wealthiest families, as well as affluent suburban and middle-aged households). But the two chains also attract younger, more budget-conscious consumers – Postino, which has many downtown locations, is popular among “Singles and Starters”, while Cooper’s Hawk is popular among “Promising Families” - i.e. young couples with children.
The success of the two brands across various segments underscores the impact of a distinctive experience – especially when paired with a loyalty-boosting membership – in attracting today’s consumers.
Value offerings and unique experiences have the power to drive restaurant visits – but ultimately, a good meal in an inviting atmosphere is a draw in and of itself, as is shown by the success of First Watch and Firebirds Wood Fired Grill.
Breakfast-only restaurant First Watch excels at ambiance and menu innovation, changing up its offerings five times a year and striving to maintain a neighborhood feel at each of its locations.
First Watch has made a point of leaning into its strengths, eschewing discounts in favor of a consistently elevated dining experience and doubling down its strongest day part (weekend brunch), rather than trying to artificially drive up interest at other times.
And the strategy appears to be working: In 2024, visits to First Watch increased 6.6% YoY – with Saturdays and Sundays between 11:00 A.M. and 1:00 P.M. remaining its busiest dayparts by far. Visitors to First Watch also tend to linger over their meals more than at other breakfast chains – in 2024, the restaurant experienced an average dwell time of 54.9 minutes, significantly longer than the 48.7-minute average at other breakfast-focused restaurants.
By focusing on what matters most to its diners – innovative and exciting food and a welcoming atmosphere that allows patrons to enjoy their meals at a leisurely pace – First Watch is continuing to flourish.
Another chain that is growing its footprint and its audience on the strength of a menu and ambiance-focused approach is Firebirds Wood Fired Grill. The chain, known for its “polished casual” vibe and bold, unique flavors, added several new restaurants last year, leading to a 6.5% increase in overall visits. Over the same period, the average number of visits to each Firebirds location held steady – showing that the new restaurants aren’t cannibalizing existing business.
The chain’s success may rest, in part, on its locating its venues in areas rife with enthusiastic foodies. Data from Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph shows that in 2024, Firebird’s trade areas had significantly higher shares of “BBQ Lovers”, “Gourmet Burger Lovers,” and “Foodies” than the nationwide average. This suggests that Firebirds is attracting diners who prioritize the experience of eating – key for a chain that prides itself on putting good food first. The chain is also known for its welcoming decor and design – another aspect that may lead to its strong visit success.
Necessity often serves as the mother of invention, and challenging economic periods continue to spark new trends and innovations in the dining scene. From a heightened focus on value – drawing families and lower-HHI consumers willing to travel for a good deal – to the growing appeal of social dining and the timeless draw of good food – new trends are emerging to meet changing consumer expectations.
