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Chipotle and McDonald’s are two major players in the fast-casual and quick-service dining scene. With the year's first half behind us, we take a look at how foot traffic to these dining giants performed – and what might lie ahead in the second half of the year.
The wider retail and dining world continues to work through the challenges of inflation and new tariff concerns. But McDonald is focusing on its future, with major expansion plans and menu changes in the works. The chain is bringing back fan favorites, introducing new products, and debuting a new beverage line inspired by its now-defunct CosMc chain.
And the data suggests that these changes are helping drive visits, with the chain outperforming the wider QSR segment in Q2 2025. With the chain continuing its menu innovations in H2 2025 and a major expansion on the horizon, the positive Q2 2025 trends may signal a strong H2 ahead.
McDonald's expansion strategy is ambitious, with plans to open 900 locations around the country by 2027. Where should the chain open these new restaurants to ensure they meet a ready demand?
Diving into YoY same-store visits by state in H1 2025 reveals that much of McDonald's same-store visit increases were concentrated in the western United States, with the Southwest standing out as a particularly strong locus of growth. Nevada, Utah, and Arizona in particular saw YoY same-store visit growths of 4.9%, 4.2%, and 3.4%, respectively – suggesting that diners in these states may be particularly receptive to new McDonald's restaurants.
Chipotle has been a dining powerhouse over the past few years, consistently expanding its presence while maintaining visit growth. Indeed, visits to the chain increased 0.7% YoY in Q2 2025, slightly outpacing the 0.5% increase in visits for the wider fast casual segment.
Meanwhile, visits per location trends tell a slightly different story – the average number of visits per venue fell in Q2 '25 even as visits per venue remained flat in the wider fast casual segment. Some of the dip is likely due to lapping the successful Chicken al Pastor launch and to the Easter calendar shift, which made for a difficult comparison. But the dip had narrowed to just -1.5% by June 2025, suggesting that the chain may be seeing the impacts of its latest menu additions.
But even as Chipotle's visits per location trends trail slightly behind the wider fast casual segment, the chain's overall visit growth has helped capture a growing share of fast-casual visits in recent years despite the rising competition in the segment. In Q2 2025, more than a quarter (26.0%) of fast casual visits went to the fast casual giant – a significant increase from its 20.3% relative visit share in Q1 2019.
And the chain has no plans of slowing, with a goal of opening between 315 and 345 new restaurants in 2025 – setting Chipotle up for continued growth within the dining sector.
Chipotle and McDonald’s continue to drive visit growth even as the wider dining space experiences challenges.
Will visits grow further in H2, or will economic headwinds slow down these upward trends?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven dining insights.
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Following years of volatility and multiple bankruptcies filings, JOANN – the 82-year-old fabric and craft retailer – shuttered its final stores in May 2025, with many stores already closing in April 2025. But diving into traffic trends for some of JOANN's competitors suggest that JOANN's bankruptcy and ultimate closure was not necessarily the result of lowered demand for crafting supplies.
Year-over-year (YoY) visit trends to JOANN stores were mostly stable prior to the closure announcements, and traffic skyrocketed as consumers descended on the bargain-priced fabrics and sewing supplies during the chain's liquidation sales. And since the closures, visits to other crafting retailers has skyrocketed, with traffic to Michael's – JOANN's main competitor that even bought chain's intellectual property – up 9.2% YoY in June 2025.
JOANN is not the only hobby and crafts chain to go bankrupt over the past twelve months – Party City, which had filed for bankruptcy in 2023, also shut its last remaining stores in February 2025. And though Party City's main focus may have been party supplies, the retailer also carried an assortment of arts and crafts supplies. This means that in H1 2025 two craft-forward legacy retailers permanently shut down.
So what brought JOANN and Party City down? While several factors contributed, one significant challenge faced by both companies was their size. Although JOANN had a loyal following in some circles, the retailer's brick-and-mortar footprint was relatively moderate – in 2024, JOANN received less than half as many visits as Michaels, due in part to its significantly smaller store fleet. Party City was even smaller, receiving less than half the visits going to Hobby Lobby last year.
This means that Party City and JOANN likely lacked the economies of scale and marketing dominance of the Hobby Lobby and Michaels – making it harder to stay afloat in an increasingly competitive market. And Party City and JOANN's mid-size brick-and-mortar footprint likely also made it more difficult to compete with mass merchants such as Walmart and Target.
But if the market consolidation forces of recent years drove JOANN and Party City out of business – what to make of the endurance of tiny Blick and its 0.3% visit share? The answer to that may lie in another trend. The bifurcation of consumer spending since COVID has sustained demand for premium, quality brands and products alongside significant growth for value-oriented retail chains. And looking at the trade area median household income for the five analyzed chains highlights Blick's affluent visitor base – and suggests that the chain has successfully positioned itself as a premium purveyor of quality arts supply.
This in turn allows Blick to operate in a wholly different field where it is not competing directly with the Hobby Lobbies (or Walmarts) of the world. Instead, it has carved out a defensible niche where the defining competitive metric isn't price, but the quality and curation of its products.
The divergent paths of JOANN and its competitors highlight the new realities of the craft retail market, where operating without the scale of a Michaels or the premium, defensible niche of a Blick can create a significant liability.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Retail media networks – advertising platforms enabling third parties to promote products and services on a retailer’s websites, digital apps, brick-and-mortar stores, or across partners’ digital properties – have firmly entered the mainstream. Major chains across industries now allow sellers direct access to consumers at the critical point of purchase. And since most shopping still takes place offline, retailers are increasingly expanding their in-store retail media offerings – through digital signage, in-store audio, sampling stations, and in-app features that appear when a customer is physically in the store.
But what do location analytics tell us about the relationship between online and offline retail in 2025 – and the potential role of brick-and-mortar retail media in driving consumer engagement? We dove into the data to find out.
A closer look at several chains that are heavily investing in brick-and-mortar retail media reveals how the in-store / online mix varies by both retailer and season. Unsurprisingly, Kroger’s unique physical visitors outpaced unique website visitors (desktop and mobile) during every quarter. In contrast, The Home Depot’s in-store visitors were closer to its online traffic – occasionally dropping below it in Q1 2025. Target, Lowe’s, and Walmart fell somewhere in between these two extremes.
Interestingly, all chains analyzed attracted more physical visitors in the spring and summer (Q2 and Q3) than in the fall and winter. For both retail media networks and their advertising partners, understanding the interplay between online and offline traffic is crucial for optimizing advertising strategies.
Walmart has emerged as a leader in brick-and-mortar retail media. Through Walmart Connect, the company provides partners with a variety of in-store advertising solutions, including digital screens, in-store radio, on-site demos, and sponsored events at Walmart locations. And non-endemic brands – ranging from restaurants to financial services – can also tap into both Walmart’s online and offline retail media networks.
And foot traffic data shows that the ratio of online to offline Walmart visitors differs greatly throughout the country. In the South Central region, including Texas, Walmart’s physical stores saw 85.0% more unique visitors in May 2025 than its website. But in the Northeast, the gap narrowed to just 8.4%. So advertisers may find cost-effective opportunities by tailoring campaigns to regional traffic tendencies.
The relative size of Walmart’s state-wide markets also varies by channel. In May 2025, Texas accounted for 10.2% of Walmart’s unique in-store visitors, making it the top regional brick-and-mortar market. Yet online, California took the lead at 12.1% of total website visitors. So advertisers aiming for the biggest in-store crowd might choose Texas, while those focused on digital reach could invest more in California. Florida, meanwhile, remained the third-largest market for both online and offline traffic, grabbing about 7.0% of each.
Though offline shopping continues to dominate, the numbers show that neither channel exists in a vacuum. And given how shopper preferences differ by region and season, brands that harness both online and offline data can craft more relevant, impactful campaigns.
For more data-driven retail and advertising analysis follow Placer.ai/anchor.
The grocery segment has never been more competitive, and Aldi, Trader Joe’s, and Lidl have consistently emerged as top players. The three chains share similarities: all offer a limited assortment of groceries and tend to operate at lower price points – however, each one is carving out its own distinct path to growth.
We take a closer look at their performance in H1 2025 to uncover what might be contributing to their continued success.
Aldi, Trader Joe’s, and Lidl have established themselves as formidable players in the grocery segment, consistently thriving despite a challenging market. And diving into H1 2025 underscores their impressive success.
The three grocery chains enjoyed consistently elevated visits in H1 2025, significantly outpacing the wider grocery segment. While overall grocery visits increased by 1.8% YoY, Aldi’s visits grew by 7.1%, Trader Joe’s by 11.9%, and Lidl posted growth of 4.9% during the analyzed period. The three chains also outpaced the wider industry in terms of average visit per location growth.
This strong H1 performance is extra impressive given how well the three chains have performed in recent years. And diving into individual metrics for each chain can further show how they are thriving – and what might lie behind their success.
Trader Joe’s, known for its whimsical and community-centric approach to grocery shopping, got its start in Pasadena, California. Since then, the chain has expanded to nearly 600 locations across the country – but California remains its most significant market. The company operates over 200 locations in the Golden State alone and recently announced plans to expand its footprint within its largest market.
Examining the visitor share among California’s top grocery chains, including major players like Safeway, Ralphs, and VONS, highlights just how well Trader Joe’s is performing in the state. While these chains maintained relatively stable visit shares over the past few years, Trader Joe’s saw its relative visit share grow from 13.2% in H1 2019 to 15.7% in H1 2025. This success underscores the value of investing in product and community – two areas where Trader Joe’s excels.
Aldi, the German grocery giant, derives much of its success from its impressive operational prowess. The chain is laser-focused on maximizing efficiency and streamlining operations in a bid to keep overhead low and customers coming through its doors. And its efforts seem to be paying off – the chain is one of the fastest-growing grocery chains in the nation. Over the past few years, Aldi has opened new stores at a rapid pace, acquiring smaller chains in pursuit of its goal of opening an additional 800 stores by 2028.
And crucially, even as Aldi expands its footprint, the chain continues to draw more average visits per location. Average visits per location were 1.6% higher than they were in 2024, 17.4% higher than in 2023, and 26.7% higher than in 2022. This signals that its new stores are being met by sustained and growing shopper interest instead of cannibalizing foot traffic from existing locations.
This model allows Aldi to grow its footprint and customer base simultaneously and demonstrates an impressive capacity to meet – and create – continued demand for its offerings.
Like Aldi, Lidl emigrated to the United States from Germany – and the chain offers a similar promise of limited-assortment products and lower prices. Diving into visitor demographics at the chain highlights where Lidl shines – and where it has room to grow. Between 2019 and 2025, the chain grew its share of suburban, wealthy, and older segments – but the share of visitors falling into the “Singles and Starters” demographic segment shrunk.
Lidl has been adding new stores in recent months, and while it has certainly leaned into its thriving suburban segment, new locations are also appearing in major cities. This push beyond its established wealthy, suburban roots suggests Lidl may be looking to broaden its appeal to a more diverse urban consumer base.
Trader Joe’s, Aldi, and Lidl continue to thrive despite a challenging retail environment – and while all chains are known for their great deals, the different price points, audiences, and focuses underscore that their success is rooted in strategies beyond their value propositions.
Will these chains continue to drive increased foot traffic in H2 2025? Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven grocery insights.
Summer often brings out the latest fashion trends as consumers head for coastal cities, the beach, summer vacations, and the pool. Sometimes we see new trends catch fire altogether, but summer also tends to signal to shoppers that it’s time to revitalize classic products or items already in their closets in new ways.
L.L.Bean, the outdoor lifestyle retailer and brand, has always been at the center of repeat trends. Its New England heritage lends itself to fashion moments centered around preppy or Americana dressing, and its staple products like the L.L.Bean Boot and Boat and Tote have become longstanding favorites.
Over the past few years, the Boat and Tote product specifically has had its own renaissance as consumers once again flocked to this classic style. Another trend that we can thank TikTok for, the bag became a viral sensation in 2022 as creators would embroider ironic sayings onto their bags instead of the traditional monogram offered. This year appears to be a reinvigoration of this trend, and with new inspirations coming into the fold, such as the “Boatkin”, there is plenty of runway left for the Boat & Tote to keep L.L.Bean top of mind for shoppers. The Boat & Tote also reflects the change in consumer behavior over the last few years relating to branded products and logos – consumers are opting for more subtle designs without logos that can be used for everyday activities.
L.L.Bean retail locations have certainly benefited from the virality of the Boat & Tote. Looking at 2025 traffic performance year-to-date, visits are up almost 15% compared to 2024. Against the backdrop of challenging traffic for many retail chains, this number is even more impressive.
L.L.Bean stores also fit the mold of the current formula that is working in retail – large format stores that offer a wide variety of experiences, assortments, and services that keep customers engaged for longer, with the average dwell time at 32 minutes. Related to the renaissance of the Boat and Tote in 2025, L.L.Bean stores recently added a bag charm bar to locations for consumers to adorn their bags in unique ways, leaning into current trends being seen across the accessories category. Concepts like the charm bar could make the difference in consumers choosing to shop in store instead of simply ordering online.
L.L.Bean’s focus on its iconic products despite the change in trends over time has served the brand in attracting new shoppers with each passing generation. The chain attracts visitors across suburban and rural families, Young Professionals as well as Sunset Boomers. Different generations of consumers have all found their way to L.L.Bean retail locations for different reasons, but the core products that remain have outlasted other trends.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Office supplies behemoth Staples has faced a challenging few years, contending with stiff competition from online rivals and evolving office visit trends that have reduced demand for some of its core products. Consumer cutbacks in discretionary spending driven by recent inflationary pressures have also taken their toll on the retailer, which has closed dozens of stores over the past several years.
But by remaining agile and pivoting towards services and B2B offerings, Staples has defied expectations – showing how retailers can succeed by staying in tune with shifting consumer needs and habits. We dove into the data to explore Staples’ recent visit growth and some of the factors behind its current success.
Last month, Staples brought back its iconic “That Was Easy!” button, highlighting the chain’s mission to simplify customers’ lives through products and solutions. But though Staples’ impressive traffic resurgence might appear to have been effortless, its current growth is the result of a carefully orchestrated pivot towards meeting the practical demands of shoppers in 2025.
In addition to its staple (pun intended) office and school supplies, Staples is ramping up its business-focused services. The chain recently began a pilot with Verizon to expand its tech offerings – with the explicit purpose of offering the telecom giant access to more small business visitors. The company has also expanded its onsite services, offering everything from print-while-you-wait to travel-related options like passport photos.
And a look at Staples’ foot traffic over the past several months shows these efforts are paying off. Since January 2025, visits and average visits per location to Staples have been consistently elevated year over year (YoY), with the sole exception of February, when retailers across categories were impacted by stormy weather and the comparison to a leap year. And as the year has worn on, Staples’ visitation trends have only gotten stronger, with June seeing a 10.3% increase in overall foot traffic and a 13.2% increase in average visits per location compared to 2024.
Despite the challenges of the past several years – and the closure of dozens of stores since 2019 – Staples’ foot traffic is also now higher than it was pre-COVID. In Q2 2025, overall visits to the chain exceeded Q2 2019 levels by 5.6%. And each open store is seeing far more foot traffic than it did before the pandemic, with average visits per location rising by 23.9% over the same period.
Location analytics reinforce the notion that it is Staples’ pivot to services and B2B solutions that is largely fueling this comeback.
August, for example, has traditionally been Staples’ busiest month of the year, as students and families descend on the chain to stock up on back-to-school supplies. But in recent years, the month has become less of an outlier, with traffic spread more evenly across the calendar.
Moreover, the number of frequent visitors to Staples – i.e. those who return to the chain multiple times per month – has grown steadily since 2019. Between H1 2019 and H1 2025, the share of customers visiting Staples at least twice a month on average edged up from 12.0% to 12.8%, and the proportion of those making three or more monthly visits climbed from 3.5% to 4.9%. This shift points to a consumer base increasingly reliant on Staples for ongoing needs rather than episodic purchases.
Staples’ recent visit success sheds light on the power of pivoting to meet shifting consumer demands. By emphasizing services and leaning into B2B offerings, Staples has transformed itself into a go-to destination for new audiences – reinforcing the importance of adaptability and innovation in retail.
For more data-driven retail analyses, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
The full-service dining segment has experienced its fair share of challenges over the past few years, with pandemic-era closures, rising food and labor costs, and cutbacks in discretionary spending contributing to visit lags. In 2024, visits were down 0.2% year over year (YoY) and remained 8.4% below 2019 levels – a reflection of the significant number of venues that permanently closed over COVID and a testament to the industry's ongoing struggle to regain its pre-pandemic footing.
Yet, even in a difficult environment, some full-service restaurant (FSR) chains are thriving. These brands aren’t waiting for the industry to rebound – they're becoming trendsetters in their own right, proving that stand-out strategy is everything in a challenging market.
This white paper explores brands that are harnessing three key differentiators – fixed-price value offerings, elevated social experiences, and a laser focus on product – to drive full-service dining success in 2025.
One of the most defining trends over the past few years has been the unrelenting march of price increases. And as consumers continue to seek out ways to save, some chains are staying ahead of the pack with fixed-price value offerings that help diners squeeze out the very best bang for their buck.
Golden Corral, the all-you-can-eat buffet chain that lets kids under three eat for free, is one FSR that is benefiting from consumers’ current value orientation. Despite closing several locations in 2024, overall visits to the chain still tracked closely with 2023 levels, declining by just 0.5% – while the average number visits to each Golden Corral restaurant grew 3.8% YoY.
Golden Corral’s value proposition is resonating strongly with budget-conscious Americans eager to enjoy a wide variety of comfort foods at an affordable price. The chain’s visitors tend to come from trade areas with lower median household incomes (HHIs) than traditional full-service restaurant (FSR) diners. And these patrons are willing to travel to enjoy the chain’s value buffet offerings, many of which are situated in rural areas and may require a longer drive. In 2024, 25.2% of Golden Corral’s diners came from over 30 miles away – compared to just 19.2% for the wider FSR segment.
Golden Corral’s continued flourishing proves that in an era of rising costs, diners are willing to go the extra mile (literally) for a restaurant that delivers both quality and affordability.
Children’s party space and eatertainment destination Chuck E. Cheese has had a transformative few years. Following the retirement of its iconic animatronic band, the chain shifted its focus to a new membership model, announcing a revamped Summer of Fun pass in May 2024 – including unlimited visits over a two-month period, steep discounts on food, and up to 250 games per day. The pass proved incredibly popular, with YoY visits surging by 15.6% in May 2024, when the offer launched – a sharp turnaround from the YoY visit declines of the previous months. Recognizing the strong demand, Chuck E. Cheese extended the program year-round – and the strategy has paid off as YoY visits remained positive through the end of 2024.
A closer look at the data suggests that parents are making full use of their unlimited passes: The share of weekday visits was higher in H2 2024 than in H2 2023, likely due to families using their passes for weekday entertainment rather than reserving visits for weekends and special occasions.
At the same time, the share of repeat visitors – those frequenting the chain at least twice a month – also grew. Although these repeat visitors may not purchase additional gameplay beyond the flat fee, their more frequent on-site presence likely translates into increased sales of pizza and other menu items.
While value has been a major motivator for restaurant-goers in recent years, low prices aren’t the only drivers of FSR success. Brands offering unique experiences aimed at maximizing social interaction are also seeing outsized gains.
Though many of these more innovative venues tend to be on the more expensive side, they draw enthusiastic crowds willing to pony up for concepts that combine good food with fun social occasions. And some of the more successful ones bolster perceived value through offerings like fixed-price menus or club memberships.
Korean cuisine has been on the rise in recent years, with restaurants like Bonchon Chicken and GEN Korean BBQ House making significant waves in the dining space. Another chain drawing attention is KPOT Korean BBQ and Hot Pot, which began modestly in 2018 and has since expanded to over 150 locations nationwide.
Diners at KPOT can customize their meals by selecting from a variety of proteins, broths, sauces, and side dishes, known as banchan, while barbecuing or cooking in a hotpot at their table and sipping on the drinks from the menu’s extensive selection. And though pricier than Golden Corral, KPOT also offers an all-you-can-eat experience that lets customers squeeze the most value out of their indulgence.
Location intelligence shows that KPOT’s experiential dining model is resonating with customers: Since Q4 2019, the average number of visits to each KPOT location has risen steadily – even as the chain has grown its footprint – while the average dwell time has also increased. Indeed, rather than a quick dining stop, KPOT has become a destination for guests to linger, enjoying both food and drinks – and an interactive and social experience.
By positioning themselves as gathering places for fine wine aficionados, wine-club-focused concepts such as Postino WineCafe and Cooper’s Hawk Winery are also benefiting from today’s consumers’ emphasis on social experiences. The two upscale dining destinations offer club memberships that combine periodic wine releases with a variety of perks.
And the data suggests that the model is strongly resonating with diners. Both Postino and Cooper’s Hawk have grown their footprints over the past year, driving substantial YoY chain-wide visit increases while average visits per location grew as well – showing that the expansions and experiential offerings are meeting robust demand.
And analyzing the two chains’ captured markets shows that the wine club model enjoys broad appeal across a variety of audience segments.
Unsurprisingly, both wine clubs’ visitor bases include higher-than-average shares of affluent consumers with money to spend, including Experian: Mosaic’s “Power Elite”, “Booming with Confidence”, and “Flourishing Families” segments (the nation’s wealthiest families, as well as affluent suburban and middle-aged households). But the two chains also attract younger, more budget-conscious consumers – Postino, which has many downtown locations, is popular among “Singles and Starters”, while Cooper’s Hawk is popular among “Promising Families” - i.e. young couples with children.
The success of the two brands across various segments underscores the impact of a distinctive experience – especially when paired with a loyalty-boosting membership – in attracting today’s consumers.
Value offerings and unique experiences have the power to drive restaurant visits – but ultimately, a good meal in an inviting atmosphere is a draw in and of itself, as is shown by the success of First Watch and Firebirds Wood Fired Grill.
Breakfast-only restaurant First Watch excels at ambiance and menu innovation, changing up its offerings five times a year and striving to maintain a neighborhood feel at each of its locations.
First Watch has made a point of leaning into its strengths, eschewing discounts in favor of a consistently elevated dining experience and doubling down its strongest day part (weekend brunch), rather than trying to artificially drive up interest at other times.
And the strategy appears to be working: In 2024, visits to First Watch increased 6.6% YoY – with Saturdays and Sundays between 11:00 A.M. and 1:00 P.M. remaining its busiest dayparts by far. Visitors to First Watch also tend to linger over their meals more than at other breakfast chains – in 2024, the restaurant experienced an average dwell time of 54.9 minutes, significantly longer than the 48.7-minute average at other breakfast-focused restaurants.
By focusing on what matters most to its diners – innovative and exciting food and a welcoming atmosphere that allows patrons to enjoy their meals at a leisurely pace – First Watch is continuing to flourish.
Another chain that is growing its footprint and its audience on the strength of a menu and ambiance-focused approach is Firebirds Wood Fired Grill. The chain, known for its “polished casual” vibe and bold, unique flavors, added several new restaurants last year, leading to a 6.5% increase in overall visits. Over the same period, the average number of visits to each Firebirds location held steady – showing that the new restaurants aren’t cannibalizing existing business.
The chain’s success may rest, in part, on its locating its venues in areas rife with enthusiastic foodies. Data from Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph shows that in 2024, Firebird’s trade areas had significantly higher shares of “BBQ Lovers”, “Gourmet Burger Lovers,” and “Foodies” than the nationwide average. This suggests that Firebirds is attracting diners who prioritize the experience of eating – key for a chain that prides itself on putting good food first. The chain is also known for its welcoming decor and design – another aspect that may lead to its strong visit success.
Necessity often serves as the mother of invention, and challenging economic periods continue to spark new trends and innovations in the dining scene. From a heightened focus on value – drawing families and lower-HHI consumers willing to travel for a good deal – to the growing appeal of social dining and the timeless draw of good food – new trends are emerging to meet changing consumer expectations.
Stadiums and arenas – and the communities they call home – have a stake in cultivating engaged team fanbases eager to participate in live events. And venues and teams can employ a variety of strategies to strengthen their connection with fans and draw crowds to the stands.
In this report, we leverage location analytics and audience segmentation to uncover some of the ways that sports franchises and venues are driving engagement – attracting visitors from farther away and appealing to fans more likely to splurge on stadium fare. How does the signing of a star athlete impact arena visitor profiles? What happens to stadium visitation trends when a team’s performance improves dramatically? And how can teams and venues tailor their offerings to more effectively cater to visitor preferences?
We dove into the data to find out.
In sports, the signing of a star athlete can have a ripple effect across the organization, hometown, and league. In addition to driving up overall attendance at games, star power can impact everything from visit frequency to audience profile – and the buying power of stadium attendees.
Lionel Messi’s move to Inter Miami CF after decades of European play brought a foot traffic boost to Chase Stadium (formerly DRV PNK Stadium). But it also shifted the demographics of stadium visitors and increased the distance they traveled to attend a game.
At Inter Miami’s 2022 and 2023 home openers without Messi (he joined the team mid-season in 2023), only 6.4% and 5.3% of visitors to Chase Stadium came from over 250 miles away. But for the 2024 home opener with Messi on the squad, 31.3% of stadium visitors traveled more than 250 miles to attend.
The demographics of visitors at the home opener also changed with Messi on the team. Trade area data combined with the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset reveals that the 2024 home opener received a smaller share of households in the “Near-Urban Diverse Families” (11.2%) and “Young Urban Singles” (7.2%) segments than the two previous years. Meanwhile, shares of “Sunset Boomers” (13.0%) and “Ultra Wealthy Families” (20.1%) increased, indicating that Messi brought an older and more affluent demographic of visitors to the stadium compared to previous years. Messi’s arrival has generated increased revenue for Inter Miami CF, Major League Soccer, and Apple TV+, which has exclusive streaming rights for MLS games. And an influx of affluent out-of-town visitors also has the potential to drive positive outcomes for tourism and employment in the Miami area.
Caitlin Clark’s WNBA debut was another star-powered game changer – this time for women’s basketball. After dazzling the sports world during her college basketball career, Caitlin Clark was drafted first overall to the Indiana Fever before the 2024 WNBA season. The superstar’s arrival has had a staggering economic impact on the city of Indianapolis and the Fever franchise, highlighting the benefit of a top athlete within the local community. However, Clark’s stardom also had a far-reaching impact on the league as a whole, adding tremendous value to the WNBA. Trade area analysis reveals that several WNBA arenas saw an uptick in visitor affluence when hosting the Fever with Clark in the lineup – likely driven in part by the elevated ticket prices associated with her appearances.
When the Minnesota Lynx hosted the Fever on July 14th, 2024, for example, the median HHI of Target Center’s captured market shot up to just over $93K/year, well above the median HHIs for the games immediately before and after that event. (A venue’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the venue’s visitor base.) Similarly, the Fever’s away game against the Connecticut Sun on May 14th, 2024 at Mohegan Sun Arena drove a higher audience median HHI ($103.6K/year) than either of the Sun’s next two home games.
Having a superstar on the roster can drive positive outcomes locally and league-wide – but overall team success is the ultimate goal for any franchise. So it may come as no surprise that stadiums and arenas can drive engagement when their home teams perform well on the field or court. And teams that reverse their fortunes often spark even greater excitement, boosting visitor loyalty, visit duration, and other key metrics.
The Baltimore Orioles had one of the worst records in baseball just a few years ago. But since 2022, the team has flipped the script – stringing together winning seasons and postseason berths. And location intelligence shows that as the team finds success, fans are becoming more engaged with their hometown stadium.
During the 2019 regular season, one of the worst for the club in recent history, stadium attendance suffered, with only 8.3% of visitors to Oriole Park at Camden Yards visiting the stadium at least three times. But during the 2024 regular season, Oriole Park’s share of repeat visitors (those who visited at least three times) was almost double 2019 levels (16.3%) – consistent with a sharp increase in sales of multi-game ticket packages.
In addition to attending games more often, visitors to Oriole Park also appear to be spending more time at the ballpark. During the 2019 regular season, visitors spent an average of 150 minutes at the stadium, but in 2024, the average time at the park increased to 178 minutes – potentially boosting ancillary spending and in-stadium advertising exposure. The increased dwell time of visitors is particularly noteworthy when considering that MLB’s rule changes have significantly shortened average game time.
The more engaged fandom engendered by team success not only impacts stadium visitor behavior, but also has the potential to drive revenue. The Orioles added 20 new corporate sponsors before the 2024 season, likely due to the attention garnered by the well-performing club.
The NFL’s Detroit Lions provide another example of team success that has driven visitor engagement. As the franchise has improved its record in recent years, the trade area size of its stadium – Ford Field – has also increased, indicating elevated attendance from fans living further away.
The Lions finished the regular season with losing records from 2019 to 2021, but finished over .500 in 2022 (9-8), 2023 (12-5), and 2024 (15-2). And with the team’s increasing wins each consecutive season, the size of its stadium's trade area has also increased steadily – reaching 81.3% above 2019 levels in 2024.
This underscores just how much team success matters to fans, who may be more inclined to travel longer distances if they believe their team is likely to win. Ultimately, broader fan engagement across a wider trade area also increases a team’s growth potential beyond in-stadium attendance – driving merchandise sales, increasing viewership, and benefitting both the team and the league as a whole.
While stadium attendance and visitor behavior is often correlated to the performance of the sports teams that play in the arena, sporting venues can also drive fan engagement in ways that aren’t solely tied to team success or big-name athletes. By adapting their concessions and venue operations to visitor preferences, stadiums and arenas can better serve their audiences and strengthen their community presence.
Consumers have been feeling the pinch of rising food costs for quite some time, but at least one NBA team has responded to make concessions at the game more affordable for fans. In December 2024, the Phoenix Suns announced a $2 value menu for all home games at Footprint Center – delivering steep discounts on hot dogs, water, soda, and snacks.
Location analytics suggest that since the value menu launch, more fans who would have otherwise waited until after leaving the venue to grab a bite are now enjoying food and drinks inside the arena. Analysis of five Suns home games just before the value menu launch – between November 26th and December 15th, 2024 – reveals that between 7.0% and 9.3% of stadium visitors visited a dining establishment after leaving the arena. But following the value menu launch before the December 19th, 2024 home game, post-game dining decreased to under 6.0% through the end of the year.
Suns owner Mat Ishbia’s announcement of the new menu called out the need for affordable food options for families at Suns games. As the season progresses, the new menu may drive a larger share of family households to Suns games, which could provide opportunities for advertisers and other stadium partners.
Consumers in Washington – and especially Seattle – are known for their affinity for plant-based diets and environmentally-friendly lifestyles. And that goes for local football fans as well: Audience segmentation provided by the AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset combined with trade area data reveals that during September to December 2024, households within Lumen Field’s potential visitor base were 36% more likely to be “Environmentally Conscious Buyers” and “Environmental Contributors” and 39% more likely to be “Vegans” compared to the nationwide average. By contrast, across all NFL stadiums, potential visiting households were 2%, 1%, and 3% less likely, respectively, to belong to these segments.
And Lumen Field has been actively catering to these consumer preferences. The stadium, which has been experimenting with plant-based culinary options for quite some time, was recently recognized as one of the most vegan-friendly stadiums in the NFL. And in December 2024, Lumen became the second stadium in the league to achieve TRUE precertification for its efforts to become a zero-waste venue.
By remaining aligned with its visitor base – including both football fans and people that visit the stadium for other events – Lumen Field encourages visitors to feel at home at their local stadium. And fans may be more connected to their team knowing the club shares their values and respects their lifestyle.
Stadiums and arenas can leverage a variety of strategies to engage visitors in attendance as well as wider audiences. Signing a star athlete, putting together a winning club, or adapting to local preferences are just some of the ways that sports franchises and athletic venues can find success.
Starbucks. Amazon. Barclays. AT&T. UPS. These are just some of the major corporations that have made waves in recent months with return-to-office (RTO) mandates requiring employees to show up in person more often – some of them five days a week.
But how are crackdowns like these taking shape on the ground? Is the office recovery still underway, or has it run its course? And how are evolving in-office work patterns impacting commuting hubs and dining trends? This white paper dives into the data to assess the state of office recovery in 2024 – and to explore what lies ahead for the sector in 2025.
In 2024, office foot traffic continued its slow upward climb, with visits to the Placer.ai Office Index down just 34.3% compared to 2019. (In other words, visits to the Placer.ai Office Index were 65.7% of their pre-COVID levels). And zooming in on year-over-year (YoY) trends reveals that office visits grew by 10.0% in 2024 compared to 2023 – showing that employee (and manager) pushback notwithstanding, the RTO is still very much taking place.
Indeed, diving into quarterly office visit fluctuations since Q4 2019 shows that office visits have been on a slow, steady upward trajectory since Q2 2020, following – at least since 2022 – a fairly consistent seasonal pattern. In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of each year, office visit levels increased steadily before dipping in holiday-heavy Q4 – only to recover to an even higher start-of-year baseline in the following Q1.
Between Q1 and Q3 2022, for example, the post pandemic office visit gap (compared to a Q4 2019 baseline) narrowed from 63.1% to 47.5%. It then widened temporarily in Q4 before reaching a new low – 41.4% – in Q1 2023. The same pattern repeated itself in both 2023 and 2024. So even though Q4 2024 saw a predictable visit decline, the first quarter of Q1 2025 may well set a new RTO record – especially given the slew of strict RTO mandates set to take effect in Q1 at companies like AT&T and Amazon.
Despite the ongoing recovery, the TGIF work week – which sees remote-capable employees concentrating office visits midweek and working remotely on Fridays – remains more firmly entrenched than ever.
In 2024, just 12.3% of office visits took place on Fridays – less than in 2022 (13.3%) and on par with 2023 (12.4%). Though Fridays were always popular vacation days – after all, why not take a long weekend if you can – this shift represents a significant departure from the pre-COVID norm, which saw Fridays accounting for 17.3% of weekday office visits.
Unsurprisingly, Tuesdays and Wednesdays remained the busiest in-office days of the week, followed by Thursdays. And Mondays saw a slight resurgence in visit share – up to 17.9% from 16.9% in 2023 – suggesting that as the RTO progresses, Manic Mondays are once again on the agenda.
Indeed, a closer look at year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) visit trends throughout the work week shows that on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, 2024 office foot traffic was down just 24.3% and 26.9%, respectively, compared to 2019 levels. The Thursday visit gap registered at 30.3%, while the Monday gap came in at 40.5%.
But on Fridays, offices were less than half as busy as they were in 2019 – with foot traffic down a substantial 53.2% compared to 2019.
Before COVID, long commutes on crowded subways, trains, and buses were a mainstay of the nine-to-five grind. But the rise of remote and hybrid work put a dent in rush hour traffic – leading to a substantial slowdown in the utilization of public transportation. As the office recovery continues to pick up steam, examining foot traffic patterns at major ground transportation commuting hubs, such as Penn Station in New York or Union Station in Washington, D.C., offers additional insight into the state of RTO.
Rush hour, for one thing – especially in the mornings – isn’t quite what it used to be. In 2024, overall visits to ground transportation hubs were down 25.0% compared to 2019. But during morning rush hour – weekdays between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM – visits were down between 44.6% and 53.0%, with Fridays (53.0%) and Mondays (49.7%) seeing the steepest drops. Even as people return to the office, it seems, many may be coming in later – leaning into their biological clocks and getting more sleep. And with today’s office-goers less likely to be suburban commuters than in the past (see below), hubs like Penn Station aren’t as bustling first thing in the morning as they were pre-pandemic.
Evening rush hour, meanwhile, has been quicker to bounce back, with 2024 visit gaps ranging from 36.4% on Fridays to 30.0% on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Office-goers likely form a smaller part of the late afternoon and evening rush hour crowd, which may include more travelers heading to a variety of places. And commuters going to work later in the day – including “coffee badgers” – may still be apt to head home between four and seven.
The drop in early-morning public transportation traffic may also be due to a shift in the geographical distribution of would-be commuters. Data from Placer.ai’s RTO dashboard shows that visits originating from areas closer to office locations have recovered faster than visits from farther away – indicating that people living closer to work are more likely to be back at their desks.
And analyzing the captured markets of major ground transportation hubs shows that the share of households from “Principal Urban Centers” (the most densely populated neighborhoods of the largest cities) rose substantially over the past five years. At the same time, the share of households from the “Suburban Periphery” dropped from 39.1% in 2019 to 32.7% in 2024. (A location’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the location’s visitor base.)
This shift in the profile of public transportation consumers may explain the relatively slow recovery of morning transportation visits: City dwellers , who seem to be coming into the office more frequently than suburbanites, may not need to get as early a start to make it in on time.
While the RTO debate is often framed around employer and worker interests, what happens in the office doesn’t stay in the office. Office attendance levels leave their mark on everything from local real estate markets to nationwide relocation patterns. And industries from apparel to dining have undergone significant shifts in the face of evolving work routines.
Within the dining space, for example, fast-casual chains have always been workplace favorites. Offering quick, healthy, and inexpensive lunch options, these restaurants appeal to busy office workers seeking to fuel up during a long day at their desks.
Traditionally, the category has drawn a significant share of its traffic from workplaces. And after dropping during COVID, the share of visits to leading fast-casual brands coming from workplaces is once again on the rise.
In 2019, for example, 17.3% of visits to Chipotle came directly from workplaces, a share that fell to just 11.6% in 2022. But each year since, the share has increased – reaching 16.0% in 2024. Similar patterns have emerged at other segment leaders, including Jersey Mike’s Subs, Panda Express, and Five Guys. So as people increasingly go back to the office, they are also returning to their favorite lunch spots.
For many Americans, coffee is an integral part of the working day. So it may come as no surprise that shifting work routines are also reflected in visit patterns at leading coffee chains.
In 2019, 27.5% of visits to Dunkin’ and 20.1% of visits to Starbucks were immediately followed by a workplace visit, as many employees grabbed a cup of Joe on the way to work or popped out of the office for a midday coffee break. In the wake of COVID, this share dropped for both coffee leaders. But since 2022, it has been steadily rebounding – another sign of how the RTO is shaping consumer behavior beyond the office.
Five years after the pandemic upended work routines and supercharged the soft pants revolution, the office recovery story is still being written. Workplace attendance is still on the rise, and restaurants and coffee chains are in the process of reclaiming their roles as office mainstays. Still, office visit data and foot traffic patterns at commuting hubs show that the TGIF work week is holding firm – and that people aren’t coming in as early or from as far away as they used to. As new office mandates take effect in 2025, the office recovery and its ripple effects will remain a story to watch.
