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Summer 2024 has seen fierce competition among fast food and dining chains, with many embracing limited-time offers (LTOs) to attract customers and drive visits. As restaurant price wars continue unabated, these promotions are proving crucial in keeping consumer interest alive.
We dove into the visit performance of four brands – McDonald’s, Burger King, Taco Bell, and Smoothie King – to see how their LTOs are driving visits.
On June 25th, 2024, McDonald’s launched a limited-time offer, allowing customers to purchase a McDouble or McChicken, a 4-piece Chicken McNuggets, small fries, and a small soft drink for just $5. Originally intended to run for about a month, the promotion was so successful that it was extended through August. Foot traffic began to trend upwards following the promotion’s launch, with visits during the week of June 24th up 2.5% compared to the chain’s weekly average between April 1st and August 5th. And foot traffic to McDonald’s has remained consistently elevated in the weeks since.
Like McDonald’s, Burger King has also been leaning into value-driven promotions, launching the "$5 Your Way" value meal on June 10th, 2024. And the promotion seems to be driving visits in a significant way. While weekly YoY visits to the chain have fluctuated throughout 2024, they jumped 3.8% YoY during the week of June 10th, and have remained consistently elevated since. Burger King, recognizing the power of the value meal, has chosen to keep the special running until October.
And following its recent rightsizing efforts, Burger King isn’t resting on its laurels. Building on the success of its $5 value meal, the chain also launched a limited-time, extra-spicy menu update on July 18th. This new offering appears to have helped keep visits elevated: After waning slightly during the week of July 8th, foot traffic to Burger King picked up once again during the week of the launch.
Tex-Mex favorite Taco Bell kicked off the 20th anniversary of its popular lime-flavored drink, Baja Blast, with a special "Bajaversary" promotion on July 29th, 2024, offering free drinks and freezes both in-store and on the app. The deal seems to have resonated strongly with customers, with visits growing by 12.3% year-over-year (YoY) for the week of July 29th. Daily visits also experienced a major increase – on the day of the special, visits surged by 17.1% compared to the YTD Monday visit average and were 5.9% higher than the overall YTD visit average.
The Summer Olympics were a major event, with millions of viewers tuning in to watch athletes at their best. And many fast food chains jumped on the Olympics bandwagon, offering discounts, deals, and limited-time menu items inspired by the event.
Smoothie King, known for its health-focused beverages, was one such brand with an Olympics special. The chain offered 32-oz smoothies for just $5 on Friday, July 26th, 2024, to coincide with the Olympic kickoff. The deal ran for one day only and fueled a significant foot traffic boost. Visits to Smoothie King on July 26th were 22.9% higher than the YTD Friday visit average – highlighting the effectiveness of well-timed, event-based offers.
For now at least, it seems that LTOs – particularly those focused on offering diners more bang for their buck – are reigning supreme in the fast-food space.
Will these promotions continue to drive foot traffic and maintain customer engagement?
Visit Placer.ai for the latest data-driven dining news.
With Q3 2024 underway, we checked in with beauty chains Ulta Beauty and Sally Beauty Supply, owned by Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. How did they fare in the first half of the year? And what are some of the factors driving their success?
We dove into the data to find out.
Ulta Beauty thrived in 2022 and 2023, propelled by the lipstick effect – which sees consumers splurging on low-cost indulgences when times are tight – and by the post-pandemic consumer obsession with wellness. And though the beauty giant’s visit growth has moderated somewhat in recent months, it continues to see year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth.
Between January and July 2024, Ulta consistently outperformed the wider beauty segment, with monthly YoY visit increases ranging between 2.8% and 11.2%. On a quarterly basis, visits to the chain jumped 6.6% YoY in Q2 2024. Though some of Ulta’s visit growth can be attributed to the chain’s growing store count, the average number of visits to each Ulta location also increased 4.6% YoY in Q2 2024.
Sally Beauty Supply – the hair care-oriented beauty chain with more than 3,100 stores nationwide – is another beauty brand to watch this year. In 2022, Sally Beauty announced a store optimization plan that included the shuttering of more than 300 stores. And foot traffic data shows that the chain’s rightsizing efforts are paying off.
Comparing quarterly visits to Sally Beauty to a Q2 2022 baseline shows that after declining throughout 2023, overall visits to the chain have begun to pick up once again – with Q2 2024 foot traffic up 3.6%.
One factor that appears to be driving success for both Ulta and Sally Beauty is their unusually broad appeal. Analyzing the two chains’ captured markets with data from Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive and STI: PopStats shows that though there are differences between Ulta and Sally Beauty’s captured markets, both brands draw large shares of customers from across demographic groups.
Overall, the median household income of Ulta’s captured market is higher than that of Sally Beauty – $78.6K, compared to $67.1K. Ulta’s distinct mix of prestige and budget products is especially likely to draw Wealthy Suburban Families, while Sally Beauty’s offerings hold special appeal for Small Towns.
But both brands’ captured markets include higher-than-average shares of the Blue Collar Suburbs and Near-Urban Diverse Families segment groups – showing that despite their differences, Ulta and Sally Beauty both boast diverse customer bases.
Still, visitors interact with the two beauty chains differently. During the 12-month period ending in July 2024, some 32.1% of visits to Sally Beauty lasted less than 10 minutes – compared to just 15.3% of visits to Ulta.
Sally Beauty’s far greater share of visits under ten minutes may be partly a result of its hair-focused product mix. In Q2 2024, some 64.8% of Sally Beauty’s net sales were in the hair color and care segments, while just 8.1% were in skincare and cosmetics. Ulta’s offerings, by contrast, are very much centered on cosmetics. And while shoppers buying hair care products may be more likely to take advantage of options like BOPIS (buy online, pick up in-store), those on the hunt for makeup may be more intent on trying out products and browsing in-store. Beauty professionals, who make up a larger share of Sally Beauty’s customer base than that of Ulta’s, may also be more inclined to use this service.
On the flip side, Ulta drew a much higher share of extended visits (30+ minutes) during the analyzed period – 31.8%, compared to 20.7% for Sally Beauty. In addition to browsing the aisles and trying new products, many Ulta customers likely remain longer in-store to avail themselves of the chain’s varied in-store salon services.
Ulta and Sally Beauty have different offerings – and serve different customer bases. But the success and broad appeal of both brands shows that in the beauty space of 2024, there’s plenty of room at the top.
For more data-driven insights, visit Placer.ai.
Discount & dollar stores had a strong Q2 2024, as consumers continued to prioritize value amid persistent high prices. We dove into the data for category leaders Dollar General and Dollar Tree to take a closer look at the drivers of these chains’ most recent success.
Dollar General – the nation’s largest dollar store player – opened nearly 200 stores last quarter, surpassing 20,000 U.S. locations. And Dollar Tree, the second-biggest dollar store chain by real estate footprint, stands at over 8,300 locations, including more than 100 new additions in the first months of 2024.
These chains’ significant fleet expansions continue to fuel foot traffic growth. Both Dollar General and Dollar Tree saw consistently positive YoY visit growth during the first seven months of 2024. Only in April 2024 did Dollar Tree’s YoY foot traffic appear to falter, likely as a result of decreased YoY demand for its traditional holiday merch due to an Easter calendar shift.
On a quarterly basis, YoY visits to Dollar General and Dollar Tree in Q2 2024 rose 13.1% and 8.4%, respectively. Over the same period, the two chains also experienced YoY increases in the average number of visits to each of their locations (10.3% for Dollar General and 3.7% for Dollar Tree), indicating that visits to individual stores remained robust as the brands grew.
And both brands plan on continuing to expand in the near future. Dollar General expects to open a total of 730 new stores in 2024, while Dollar Tree announced the takeover of 170 99 Cents Only Stores to complement the banner’s other openings. These strategic initiatives should continue to drive foot traffic gains for both brands in the coming months.
What’s behind Dollar General and Dollar Tree’s visit success? A look at changes in visitor interaction with the two chains suggests that for both dollar leaders, rising customer loyalty has played an important role.
Since July 2022, the share of visitors frequenting the two brands on a regular basis has been on an upward trajectory. In July 2024, 35.5% of Dollar General visitors frequented the chain at least three times during the month – up from 34.1% in July 2022. This increase in visitor frequency may be due in part to Dollar General’s inroads into the grocery space – giving consumers even more of a reason to visit the chain for daily essentials on a regular basis.
And though Dollar Tree’s somewhat more modest fleet drives a slightly smaller share of repeat visitors, it too has seen an increase in frequent visitors while investing in diversified offerings at various price-points – including consumables. In July 2024, 16.6% of Dollar Tree’s visitors also visited the chain at least three times, up from 13.9% in July 2022.
For both chains, visitor frequency is driven in part by seasonality, with loyalty upticks in December and May, likely driven by holiday season and Mother’s Day shoppers. Still, Dollar Tree, which remains a more traditional dollar store than Dollar General, experiences more dramatic seasonal visit peaks than its prime competitor – and its loyalty also follows a more pronounced seasonal pattern.
With the biggest players in the discount & dollar category seemingly going strong, will the second half of 2024 bring even more success to this retail space?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Midway through 2024, foot traffic to Lowe’s and Home Depot – the leaders in the home improvement space – is climbing. What’s driving these retailers’ recent visit growth? We dove into the data to find out.
After a meteoric rise in foot traffic during the pandemic, the home improvement segment has experienced a turbulent few years – one of the primary reasons being a cool housing market that has curbed demand for projects. But after a significant period of consistent YoY visit gaps, visits to Lowe’s and Home Depot in 2024 appear to be matching and even slightly surpassing 2023 levels.
Between Q3 2023 and Q2 2024, Lowe’s and Home Depot both saw their YoY visit gaps gradually narrow and then close – finishing out Q2 with modest YoY gains. This turnaround may have been partly due to modest lifts in new home sales at the start of 2024 compared to 2023 – spurring an uptick in home improvement projects in the following months.
And though YoY visits to both retailers experienced a decline in July 2024 – perhaps due to May and June’s YoY declines in new and existing home sales – recent indications that the housing market may be heating up may bode well for the home improvement category in the second half of 2024 and beyond.
In addition to an increase in YoY visits, the resurgence of cross-shopping behavior between Home Depot and Lowe’s further suggests that a turnaround may be unfolding in the home improvement space. Location analytics shows that during recent home improvement booms, cross shopping between the two retailers was common, perhaps as judicious consumers taking on large projects looked to explore their options.
In Q2 of 2020 and 2021 – periods of strong foot traffic for both retailers – a large share of Lowe’s visitors also visited Home Depot. And although Lowe’s maintains a smaller retail footprint than Home Depot, many of Home Depot’s visitors visited a Lowe’s store as well.
But in the years that followed, economic headwinds led many consumers to defer their projects, and cross-shopping behavior began to moderate. In Q2 2023, only 48.8% of visitors to Lowe’s also visited Home Depot, and just 44.8% of Home Depot’s visitors visited Lowe’s.
However, in Q2 2024, consumers’ home improvement cross-shopping showed signs of a potential change of course. During the period, cross shopping between the brands climbed to 51.5% for Lowe’s and 45.7% for Home Depot. A return to in-store comparison shopping could mean that consumers are again taking on higher-stakes home improvement projects, which justify a visit to both retailers.
After an extended period of YoY visit gaps, foot traffic to the home improvement leaders is on the rise. Will Lowe’s and Home Depot continue to build on these positive visitation trends?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
With H2 2024 underway, we took a look at the foot traffic performance of superstores Walmart and Target, and membership warehouse clubs BJ’s Wholesale Club, Sam’s Club, and Costco. How did foot traffic compare to 2023’s visitation patterns? And what special events helped propel visits?
Superstores have been thriving – with YoY visits to retail giants Walmart and Target elevated consistently since May 2024. And though Target had a slower start to the year, YoY foot traffic to the chain picked up in Q2, and the retailer has been flourishing since. (Target and Walmart's April 2024 YoY foot traffic drops are likely attributable in part to calendar shifts: April 2023 had one more weekend than April 2024 – and one of them was Easter.)
Membership warehouse clubs have been faring even better, with Costco leading the pack in Q2. BJ’s and Sam’s Club also experienced strong visit growth, with July visits elevated by 5.6% YoY for both brands.
A closer look at the baseline change in quarterly visits since Q2 2019 further highlights the strong positioning of superstores and wholesale clubs in 2024. All five retailers drew more visits in Q2 2024 than they did pre-pandemic (Q2 2019).
But these visit increases have not been equally distributed across the retailers: While all of them experienced growth relative to a Q2 2019 baseline, membership warehouse visits have been outpacing those of superstores on a consistent basis since Q1 2023. As prime destinations for inexpensive, bulk buying, the segment has likely been buoyed by families and younger consumers seeking ways to save money on groceries and other basics amid high prices.
But superstores have also been having a moment. And one factor which may have contributed to Target’s Q2 2024 turnaround is its doubling down on loyalty: In April 2024, the chain revamped its Target Circle Rewards, adding, among other things, a new paid tier called Target Circle 360.
A key benefit of Target’s loyalty program, which is free to join for the regular tiers, is access to deep discounts during Target Circle Week. This year, the big sales event took place between July 7th and 13th – and examining foot traffic trends to the chain reveals that the promotion fueled a major visit boost: During the week of July 8th, weekly visits to Target were the highest they’ve been since the start of the year, and 6.8% higher than 2024’s weekly visit average. This year’s Circle Week visits also outperformed last year’s by 8.7%.
This demonstrates how the revamped loyalty program and exclusive sales events are successfully driving more customers to Target stores. And other retailers are taking note, with Walmart debuting its own major summer sales events and Costco and Sam’s Club battling it out for the most affordable prices – a major win for shoppers nationwide.
Superstores enjoyed elevated visitation patterns in Q2 2024. Will the superstore and wholesale club price wars continue? And with back-to-school shopping well underway, and the holiday shopping season quickly approaching, how will these retailers continue to perform?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail news.
Summer is underway, and malls are still bustling. In July 2024, visits to indoor malls and open-air shopping centers were up 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively, compared to the equivalent period of 2023. Though these year-over-year (YoY) increases were more moderate than the significant jumps observed in May and June, they underscore the segment’s continued solid positioning. Outlet malls, for their parts, saw a slight 0.4% decline in mall visits compared to July 2023.
At first glance, July’s softer numbers – particularly for outlet malls – may appear to herald the start of a retail and mall visit summer slow-down. But zooming into weekly visit data offers further context that can shed light on what may lie ahead in the coming months.
Analyzing week-over-week (WoW) visit trends shows that during the last two weeks of June and the first two weeks of July, all three mall indexes saw visits either decline or hold steady from week to week. The one notable exception was outlet malls – which experienced an impressive and sudden 13.7% WoW surge in visits to outlet malls during the first week of July, driven by the segment's exceptional Independence Day draw. Outlet malls’ subsequent WoW visit drop also reflects this exceptional Fourth of July peak.
The final two weeks of July showed a change in visit trajectory, with all three mall segments experiencing growing WoW visit gains as traffic picked up towards the end of the month. This upward trend can likely be attributed to the back-to-school season getting into full swing, with sales typically running from mid to late July through August and into mid-September.
Here too, the late July WoW visit gains were strongest for outlet malls – perhaps showcasing consumers' prioritization of budget shopping ahead of the new school year.
The Placer.ai Mall Index has frequently highlighted the power of special calendar milestones to drive significant shopping center visit spikes. And Independence Day is no exception.
On July 4th, shoppers nationwide flock to stores for holiday deals, often after enjoying hotdogs, hamburgers, and other festive treats. But though all three mall types have shops that are open on the holiday, it is outlet malls that really draw the crowds. On July 4th, 2024, visits to outlet malls shot up 50.7% compared to an average YTD Thursday. Foot traffic to indoor malls and open-air shopping centers, on the other hand, remained below levels usually seen on Thursdays.
Between Fourth of July sales and a long, summer holiday weekend, many consumers chose to spend their time off this year driving out to outlet malls and browsing their offerings to find the best deals.
Between the Fourth of July and back-to-school shopping, July was yet another busy month across shopping malls nationwide. But how will malls continue to fare in August as school goes back into session and summer vacationers go back to work?
Follow our blog at Placer.ai to find out.
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1. Overall dining traffic is mostly flat, but growth is concentrated in specific areas.
While nationwide dining visits were nearly unchanged in early 2025, western states like Utah, Idaho, and Nevada showed moderate growth, while states in the Midwest and South, along with Washington D.C., saw declines.
2. Fine dining and coffee chains are growing through expansion, not just busier locations.
These two segments were the only ones to see an increase in total visits, but their visits-per-location actually decreased, indicating that opening new stores is the primary driver of their growth.
3. Higher-income diners are driving the growth in resilient categories.
The segments that saw visit growth—fine dining and coffee—also attracted customers with the highest median household incomes, suggesting that affluent consumers are still spending on dining despite economic headwinds.
4. Remote work continues to reshape dining habits.
The share of suburban customers at fine dining establishments has increased since 2019, while it has decreased for coffee chains. This reflects a shift towards "destination" dining closer to home and away from commute-based coffee runs.
5. Limited-service restaurants own the weekdays; full-service restaurants win the weekend.
QSR, fast casual, and coffee chains see the majority of their traffic from Monday to Friday, whereas casual and fine dining see a significant spike in visits on weekends.
6. Each dining segment dominates a specific time of day.
Consumer visits are highly predictable by the hour: coffee leads in the early morning, fast casual peaks at lunch, casual dining takes the afternoon, fine dining owns the dinner slot, and QSR captures the late-night crowd.
Overall dining visits held relatively steady in the first five months of 2025, with year-over-year (YoY) visits to the category down 0.5% for January to May 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Most of the country saw slight declines (less than 2.0%), though some states and districts experienced larger drops: Washington, D.C, saw the largest visit gap (-3.6% YoY), followed by Kansas and North Dakota (-2.9%), Arkansas (-2.8%), Missouri and Kentucky (-2.6%), Oklahoma (-2.1%), and Louisiana (-2.0%).
Still, there were several pockets of moderate dining strength, specifically in the west of the United States. January to May 2025 dining visits in Utah, Idaho, and Nevada increased 1.8% to 2.4% YoY, while the coastal states saw traffic rise 0.6% (California) to 1.2% (Washington). Vermont also saw a slight increase in dining visits (+1.9%).
Diving into visit trends by dining segment shows that fine dining and coffee saw the strongest overall visit trends, with visits to the segments up 1.3% and 2.6% YoY, respectively, between January and May 2025. But visits per location trends were negative for both segments – a decline of 0.8% YoY for fine dining and 1.8% for coffee during the period – suggesting that much of the visit strength is due to expansions rather than more crowded restaurants and coffee shops.
In contrast, full-service casual dining saw overall visits decrease by 1.5%, while visits per location remained stable (+0.2%) YoY between January and May 2025. Several casual dining chains have rightsized in the past twelve months – including Red Lobster, TGI Fridays, and Outback Steakhouse – which impacted overall visit numbers. But the data seems to show that their rightsizing was effective, as the remaining locations successfully absorbed the traffic and maintained performance levels from the previous year. And the monthly data also provides much reason for optimism, with May traffic up both overall and on a visit per location basis – suggesting that the casual dining segment is well positioned for growth in the second half of 2025.
Meanwhile, QSR and fast casual chains saw similar minor visits per venue dips (-1.5% and -1.2%, respectively). At the same time, QSR also saw an overall visit dip (-0.8%) while traffic to fast casual chains increased slightly (+0.3%) – suggesting that the fast casual segment is expanding more aggressively than QSR. But the two segments decoupled somewhat in May, with overall traffic and visits per venue to fast casual chains up YoY while traffic remained flat and visits per venue fell slightly for QSR – perhaps due to the relatively greater affluence of fast casual's consumer base.
Analyzing the income levels of visitors to the various dining segments over time shows that each segment followed a slightly different trend – and the differences in visitor income may help explain some of the current traffic patterns.
The only three segments with YoY visit growth – casual dining, fine dining, and coffee – also had the highest captured market median household income (HHI). Although the median HHI in the captured market of upscale and fine dining chains fell after COVID, it has risen back steadily over time and now stands at $98.0K – slightly higher than the $97.1K median HHI between January to May 2019. This may explain the segment's resilience in the face of wider consumer headwinds. Meanwhile, the median HHI at fast casual and coffee chains has fallen slightly, perhaps due to aggressive expansions in the space – including Dave's Hot Chicken and Dutch Bros – which likely broadened the reach of the segments, driving visits up and trade area median HHI down.
Like fine dining, casual dining also saw its trade area median HHI increase slightly over time – but the segment has still been facing visit dips. This could mean that, even though consumers trading down to casual dining may have boosted the trade area median HHI for the segment, it still might not have been enough to make up for the customers lost to tighter budgets.
The QSR segment saw its trade area median HHI remain remarkably steady – and visits to the segment have also been quite consistent – staying between $70.6K and $70.9K between 2019 and 2025 – which may explain why the segment's visits remained relatively stable YoY.
Diving into the psychographic segmentation shows that, although the fine dining segment attracted visitors from the highest-income areas between January and May 2025, fast casual chains drew the highest share of visitors from suburban areas, followed by casual dining and coffee. QSR attracted the smallest share of suburban visitors, with just 30.5% of the category's captured market between January and May 2025 belonging to Spatial.ai: PersonaLive suburban segments.
But looking at the data since 2019 reveals small but significant changes in the shares of suburban audiences in some categories' captured markets. And although the percentage changes are slight, these represent hundreds of thousands of diners every year.
The data shows that shares of suburban segments in the captured markets of fine dining chains have increased, while their share in the captured market of coffee chains has decreased. The shares of suburban visitors to QSR, fast casual, and casual chains have remained relatively steady.
This may suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent rise of remote and hybrid work models are still impacting consumer dining habits, benefiting destination-worthy experiences in suburban locales such as fine dining chains while reducing the necessity of daily coffee runs that were often tied to commuting and office work. Meanwhile, the stability in QSR, fast casual, and casual dining segments could indicate that these categories continue to meet consistent suburban demand for convenience and everyday dining, largely unaffected by the redistribution seen in the fine dining and coffee sectors.
Although QSR, fast casual, casual dining, fine dining, and coffee all fall under the wider dining umbrella, the data shows distinct consumer behavior patterns regarding visits to these five categories.
Limited service segments, including QSR, fast casual, and coffee tend to see higher shares of visits on weekdays, while full service segments – casual dining and fine dining – receive higher shares of weekend visits. Diving deeper shows that QSR has the largest share of weekday visits, with 72.3% of traffic coming in between Monday and Friday, followed by fast casual (69.8% of visits on weekdays) and coffee (69.4% of visits on weekdays.) Looking at trends within the work week shows that QSR receives a slightly larger visit share between Monday and Thursday compared to the other limited service segments. Meanwhile, coffee seems to receive the smallest share of Friday visits – 16.3% compared to 17.0% for fast casual and 17.2% for QSR.
On the full-service side, casual dining and fine dining chains have relatively similar shares of weekend visits (39.0% and 38.8%, respectively), but fine dining also sees an uptick of visits on Fridays (with 19.1% of weekly visits) as consumers choose to start the weekend on a festive note.
Hourly visit patterns also show variability between the segments. Coffee is the unsurprising leader of early visits, with 14.6% of visits taking place before 8 AM and, almost two-thirds (64.9%) of visits taking place before 2 PM. Fast casual leads the lunch rush (29.4% of visits between 11 AM and 2 PM), casual dining chains receive the largest share of afternoon (2 PM to 5 PM) visits, and fine dining chains receive the largest share of dinner visits, with almost 70% of visits taking place between 5 PM and 11 PM. QSR leads the late night visit share – 4.1% of visits take place between 11 PM and 5 AM – followed by casual dining chains (3.2% late night and overnight visit share), likely due to the popularity of 24-hour diners.
This suggests that each dining segment effectively "owns" a different part of the day, from the morning coffee ritual and the quick lunch break to the leisurely evening meal and late-night cravings.
An analysis of average visit duration also reveals a small but lasting shift in post-pandemic dining behavior. Between January and May 2025, the average dwell time for nearly every dining segment was shorter than during the same period in 2019. This efficiency trend is evident across limited-service categories like QSR, fast casual, and coffee shops, suggesting a continued emphasis on speed and convenience.
The one notable exception to this trend is upscale and fine dining, where the average visit duration has actually increased compared to pre-COVID levels. This may suggest that, while visits to most segments have become more transactional, consumers are treating fine dining more as an extended, deliberate experience, reinforcing its position as a destination-worthy occasion.
1. The Midwest is the only region where Black Friday retail visits outpace Super Saturday.
But several major Midwestern markets, including Chicago and Detroit, actually see higher shopper turnout on Super Saturday.
2. Holiday season demographic shifts also vary across regions.
Nationwide, electronics stores see a slight uptick in median household income (HHI) in December – yet in certain markets, electronics retailers such as Best Buy see a drop in captured market median HHI during this period.
3. Back-to-school shopping starts earliest for clothing and office supplies retailers in the South Central region, likely tied to earlier school schedules.
But back-to-school visits surge higher for these retailers in the Northeast later in the season.
4. The share of college students among back-to-school shoppers varies by region.
In August 2024, “Collegians” made up the largest share of Target’s back-to-school shopping crowd in New England, and the smallest in the West.
5. Mother’s Day drives the biggest restaurant visit spikes in the Middle Atlantic Region, while Father’s Day sees its biggest boosts in the South Atlantic states.
Mother’s Day diners also tend to travel farther to celebrate, suggesting an extra effort to treat mom.
6. Western states proved particularly responsive to McDonald’s recent Minecraft promotion.
During the week of A Minecraft Movie’s release, the promotion drove significantly higher visit spikes in the West than in the Eastern U.S.
Retailers rely on promotional events to fuel sales – from classics like Black Friday and back-to-school sales to unique limited-time offers (LTOs) and pop-culture collaborations. Yet consumer preferences and behavior can vary significantly by region, making it critical to tailor campaigns to local markets.
This report dives into the data to reveal how consumers in 2025 are responding to major retail promotions, exploring both broad regional trends and more localized market-level nuances. Where is Black Friday most popular, and which areas see a bigger turnout on Super Saturday? Where are restaurants most packed on Mother’s Day, and where on Father’s Day? Which region kicks off back-to-school shopping – and where are August shoppers most likely to be college students? And also – which part of the country went all out on McDonald’s recent Minecraft LTO?
Read on to find out.
Promotions aimed at boosting foot traffic on key holiday season milestones like Black Friday and Super Saturday are central to retailers’ strategies across industries. The day after Thanksgiving and the Saturday before Christmas typically rank among in-store retail’s busiest days, last year generating foot traffic surges of 50.1% and 56.3%, respectively, compared to a 12-month daily average. And
But a closer look at regional data shows that these promotions land differently across the country. In the Midwest, Black Friday outperformed Super Saturday last year, fueling the nation’s biggest post-Thanksgiving retail visit spike – a testament to the milestone’s strong local appeal. Meanwhile, in the Western U.S. Black Friday trailed well behind Super Saturday, though both milestones drove smaller upticks than in other regions. And in New England and the South Central states, Super Saturday achieved its biggest impact, suggesting that last-minute holiday specials may resonate especially well in that area.
Digging deeper into major Midwestern hubs shows that even within a single region, holiday promotions can produce widely different responses.
In St. Louis, Indianapolis, and Minneapolis, for example, consumers followed the broader Midwestern pattern, flocking to stores on Black Friday exhibiting less enthusiasm for Super Saturday deals. By contrast, Chicago and Detroit saw Super Saturday edge ahead, with Chicago’s Black Friday peak falling below the nationwide average of 50.1%. examples highlight the power of local preferences to shape holiday campaign results.
Holiday promotions don’t just drive visit spikes; they also spark subtle but significant changes in the demographic profiles of brick-and-mortar shoppers, expanding many retailers’ audiences during peak periods. And these shifts, too, can vary widely across regions.
Outlet malls, department stores, and beauty & self-care chains, for instance, which typically attract higher-income consumers, tend to see slight declines in the median household incomes (HHI) of their visitor bases in December. This dip may be due to promotions drawing in more mid- and lower-income shoppers during the peak holiday season. Electronics stores and superstores, on the other hand, which generally serve a less affluent base, see modest upticks in median HHI in the lead-up to Christmas.
But once again, drilling further down into regional chain-level data reveals more nuanced regional patterns. Take Best Buy, a leading holiday season electronics destination. In some of the chain’s biggest, more affluent markets – including New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago – the big-box retailer sees small dips in median HHI during December. But in Atlanta and Houston – also relatively affluent, but slightly less so – December saw a minor HHI uptick, hinting at a stronger holiday rush from higher-income shoppers in those cities.
Back-to-school promotions also play a pivotal role in the retail calendar, with superstores, apparel chains, office supply stores and others all vying for shopper attention. And though summer markdowns drive increased foot traffic nationwide, both the timing of these shifts and the composition of the back-to-school shopping crowd differ among regions.
Analyzing weekly fluctuations in regional foot traffic to clothing and office supplies stores shows, for example, that back-to-school shopping picks up earliest in the South Central region, likely due to earlier school start dates.
But the biggest visit peaks occur in the Northeast – with clothing retailer foot traffic surging in New England in late August, and office supplies stores seeing an even bigger surge in the Middle Atlantic region in early September. Retailers and advertisers can plan their back-to-school deals around these differences, targeting promotions to local trends.
Though K-12 families drive much of the back-to-school rush, college student shoppers also play a substantial role. And here, too, their participation varies by region.
For instance, the “Collegians” segment accounted for 2.2% of Target’s shopper base nationwide over the past year – rising to 3.0% in August 2024. But regionally, the share of “Collegians” soared as high as 4.0% in New England versus just 2.2% in the West. So while retailers in New England may choose to lean into the college vibe, those in Western states may place greater emphasis on families with children.
When it comes to dining, Mother’s Day and Father’s Day are the busiest days of the year for the full-service restaurant (FSR) category, as families treat their parents to a hassle-free meal out. And eateries nationwide capitalize on this trend by offering a variety of deals and promotions that add a little extra charm (and value) to the experience.
Nationwide, Mother’s Day drives more FSR foot traffic than Father’s Day – except in parts of the Pacific Northwest, where Father’s Day traditions run especially deep. Still, the size of these holiday boosts varies substantially by region.
This year, for instance, Mother’s Day (May 11, 2025) drove the largest FSR surge in the Middle Atlantic, with the South Atlantic and Midwest not far behind. Father’s Day, by contrast, saw its biggest lift in the South Atlantic. Mother’s Day proved least resonant in the West, whereas Father’s Day had its smallest impact in New England.
Dining behavior also differs between the two occasions. Mother’s Day celebrants display a slight preference for morning FSR visits and a bigger one for afternoon visits, while Father’s Day crowds favor evenings – perhaps reflecting a preference for sports bars and later dinners with dad. Another interesting nuance: On Mother’s Day, a larger share of FSR visits originate from between 3 and 50 miles away compared to Father’s Day, suggesting that families go the extra mile – sometimes literally – to celebrate mom.
While established dates like Black Friday or Mother’s Day naturally spur promotions, brands can also craft their own moments with limited-time offers (LTOs). And much like holiday campaigns, these retailer-led events can produce varied outcomes across different regions.
Fast food restaurants, for example, have leaned heavily on limited-time offers (LTOs) and pop-culture tie-ins to fuel buzz in what remains a challenging overall market. And McDonald’s recent Minecraft promotion, launched on April 1, 2025 to coincide with the April 3 release of A Minecraft Move, shows just how impactful the practice can be.
Nationally, the Minecraft promotion (featuring offerings for both kids and adults) drove a 6.9% lift in visits during the movie’s opening week. But the impact of the promotion was far from uniform across the U.S. Many of McDonald’s Western markets – including Utah, Idaho, Nevada, California, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon – recorded visit lifts above 10.0%. Meanwhile, Kentucky saw a 2.1% dip, and several other Eastern states registered modest gains below 3.0%. The McDonald’s example illustrates the power of regional tastes to shape the success of even the most creative pop-culture collabs.
Whether it’s properly timing holiday and back-to-school discounts, recognizing where Mother’s Day or Father’s Day will resonate more, or pinpointing markets that respond best to pop-culture tie-ins, the data reveals that effective promotions depend heavily on local nuances. And by analyzing regional and DMA-level trends, retailers and advertisers can craft compelling, relevant campaigns that heighten engagement where it matters most.
1. Experiential and niche retailers can deliver anchor-level traffic. At Towne East Square Mall, the addition of a Scheels in 2023 significantly increased foot traffic and long-distance travelers, while Barnes & Noble at Coronado Center in Albuquerque has become a key driver of both foot traffic and higher-spend demographics.
2. Size isn’t everything – especially for dining venues. At Glendale Galleria and Northridge Fashion Center, smaller restaurants attracted more foot traffic than some traditional anchors.
3. Refocusing on tenants’ actual traffic contributions enables a flexible anchor approach. Balancing weekend draws like Scheels with weekday favorites such as Costco or Chick-fil-A can help maintain steady visitor flow throughout the week. Similarly, onsite fitness clubs can shift traffic to earlier in the day – an opportunity to adjust store hours and capture additional morning shoppers.
4. Temporary pop-ups can form an integral part of a visit-focused anchor strategy. The Barbie Dreamhouse Living Truck Tour generates mall visit spikes well above typical Saturday levels. Operators can integrate these events into their overall anchor strategies, offering preferential terms to high-performing pop-ups.
5. New tenants can boost traffic for existing stores in similar categories. After Aldi joined Green Acres Commons in February 2020, visits to an existing BJ’s Wholesale Club trended upwards. This synergy highlights how overlapping audiences can become a strength, creating a larger overall customer base.
Malls, it seems, are cool once again. After languishing in the wake of the pandemic, shopping centers across the country are thriving – reinventing themselves as prime “third places” where people can hang out, shop, and grab a bite to eat.
One key driver behind this resurgence is a shift in how malls view their anchor tenants. While traditional mainstays like Macy’s and JCPenney still play an important role, specialized offerings – from popular eateries to fitness centers and immersive retailtainment destinations – are increasingly taking center stage. These attractions maximize the experiential value that brick-and-mortar venues can deliver, driving visits and sales for the center as a whole.
Against this backdrop, this report leverages the latest location intelligence data to explore the types of tenants that can function as mall anchors in 2025. Should mall operators still focus on general merchandisers to draw crowds, or can dining chains and more niche retailers also do the job? How important is square footage in identifying the anchor-like tenants in a shopping center? And how can a visit-focused approach help mall operators select effective anchor or anchor-like tenants – whether to fill big-box spaces or to leverage the leasing perks traditionally reserved for major large-format chains?
One of the most important functions of a mall anchor is to ensure steady visitation – providing its smaller tenants with a constant flow of potential customers. And as the role of the mall continues to evolve, analyzing the actual foot traffic impacts of different types of businesses can help identify the kinds of non-traditional anchors best suited to fulfill that purpose.
Experiential venues, for example, are particularly well-poised to serve as powerful anchors in today’s retail environment – as illustrated by the visit surge experienced by Towne East Square Mall in Wichita, KS following the addition of a Scheels in July 2023.
By blending traditional retail with immersive experiences, Scheels has emerged as a true experiential destination. And this pull has also helped the mall draw more long-distance visitors willing to travel to enjoy Scheels’ offerings. In 2024, 41.9% of the mall’s customers traveled more than 50 miles to visit, compared to 35.8% back in 2018 when Sears occupied the same lot.
Traditionally, anchors aimed to please the widest possible audiences – with department stores, big-box chains, and grocery stores leading the way. But visitation data shows that niche concepts can also deliver anchor-level traffic if they’re compelling enough to attract dedicated fans.
The experience of the Barnes & Noble at Coronado Center in Albuquerque, NM is a case in point. After being written off as all but obsolete, Barnes & Noble has staged an impressive comeback in recent years, finding success through a more curated, localized approach to book selling. And despite not being a formal anchor, the Coronado Center Barnes & Noble accounted for 7.9% of visits to the mall in 2024 – outperforming both Macy’s and JCPenney.
Year-over-year data also shows foot traffic surging at the Coronado Center Barnes & Noble, lifting overall visitation to the mall. And demographic data reveals that the bookstore draws a more affluent audience than either the center as a whole or the two department stores – attracting a crowd with more spending power.
This example also illustrates how smaller tenants can sometimes draw larger crowds. Even though Barnes & Noble occupies a smaller onsite space than either Macy’s or JCPenney, it is proving a powerful visit driver out of proportion to its physical size.
Dining chains are also adept at punching above their square footage – often attracting crowds disproportionate to their size.
Despite its relatively small footprint, for example, the In-N-Out Burger at Glendale Galleria drew an impressive 8.6% of visits to the mall complex in 2024, outpacing some of the mall’s official anchors like DICK’s Sporting Goods, Macy’s, and JCPenney. Still, the onsite Target drew even larger crowds at 14.4% of visits.
A similar pattern emerged at Northridge Fashion Center, where Porto’s Bakery and Cafe captured a notable 15.6% of visits to the complex in 2024 – more than some of the center’s traditional department stores.
These examples underscore the potential for dining chains, which typically require less space, to serve as micro-anchors by consistently attracting outsized crowds – a key consideration for mall operators looking to sustain visitor traffic.
Refocusing on tenants’ actual foot traffic contributions also opens the door to a more flexible and dynamic approach to anchor selection and management – one that considers each venue’s unique visitation patterns.
Seasonal factors, for example, can make certain anchors more powerful at specific times of the year, while different venues shine on particular days of the week.
At Jordan Creek Town Center in West Des Moines, Iowa, for instance, Scheels and Costco each delivered just under 20.0% of the complex’s overall visits in 2024. But the two retailers’ daily patterns differed significantly: Scheels saw bigger crowds on weekends, while Costco was the primary weekday destination.
Understanding differences like these can help operators optimize their tenant mix to maintain a balanced flow of shoppers throughout the week.
Another example of the impact of differing weekday traffic patterns is offered by the impact of mall-based Chick-fil-A locations on the distribution of mall visits throughout the week.
Despite its relatively small size, Chick-fil-A draws substantial traffic to malls. And after adding Chick-fil-A locations, both Northridge and Miller Hill Malls saw meaningful drops in the share of visits to the centers taking place on Sundays – even as the wider indoor mall segment saw slight upticks.
Recognizing this trend could prompt mall operators to compensate by adding more weekend-friendly traffic drivers – or to lean into this distinction by taking additional steps to bolster the mall’s role as a go-to weekday destination.
The power of different mall traffic magnets also varies throughout the day. Increasingly, shopping centers are turning to fitness centers as experiential anchors. And since many people work out early in the morning, these gyms are having a significant impact on the distribution of mall visits across dayparts.
The addition of gyms to Northshore Mall in Peabody, MA and Jackson Crossing in Jackson, MI, for instance, led to a significant rise in visits between 7:00 AM and noon. And though the rest of the stores in these malls typically open at 10:00 or 11:00 AM, this shift presents the centers with a significant opportunity.
By adjusting opening hours to accommodate these early-morning patrons, malls can capitalize on this added traffic, driving up visits and sales for relevant tenants – especially health-focused retailers such as juice bars and sporting goods stores.
Adopting a broader, visit-focused view of anchoring also allows mall operators to apply some of the strategies typically reserved for anchors to non-conventional traffic-generating businesses, to ensure a consistent flow of traffic year-round.
Pop-up stores and events, for example, generally don’t follow the same seasonal trends as other retailers – instead, they generate short-term visit boosts during their runs, whenever in the year that may be. And a visit-focused anchor strategy can leverage some of the perks traditionally reserved for anchor tenants – such as preferential leasing terms – to complement traditional full-time anchors during slower retail periods.
The Barbie Dreamhouse Living Truck Tour is a prime example of a traffic-driving pop-up. By bringing exclusive merchandise to malls across the U.S., the truck generates plenty of buzz, drawing crowds eager to snatch up limited-edition items and immerse themselves in all things Barbie. As a result, malls hosting the tour often see significant visit spikes, with foot traffic surging well above typical Saturday levels. Well-timed pop-ups like these can help balance out traffic throughout the year, offsetting traditional slow periods.
A visit-focused approach to anchor management can also help mall operators assess the potential impact of new tenants on existing stores operating in similar categories. For example, mall owners often worry that new tenants operating in similar categories might cannibalize existing businesses. But a visit-focused anchor approach reveals that a well-chosen addition can sometimes benefit current tenants – especially if they cater to similar audiences.
In February 2020, for instance, value supermarket Aldi opened at Green Acres Commons in Valley Stream, NY – a center that already hosted budget-friendly BJ’s Wholesale Club. While BJ’s visits were relatively flat in 2018 and 2019, they began to rise after Aldi’s opening (and following a pandemic-induced dip). Cross-shopping data also shows that Aldi customers were more likely to visit BJ’s than the average Green Acres patron last year.
This synergy may be due in part to the two retailers’ similar visitor bases: In 2024, the Aldi and BJ’s stores in Green Acres Common drew shoppers with comparable economic profiles. This suggests that overlapping audiences can become a strength if aligned brands attract new shoppers, who then explore multiple stores in the same center.
Looking ahead, effective mall anchors will be defined less by physical footprint and more by their capacity to maintain consistent, valuable foot traffic. While traditional department stores remain pivotal, smaller or niche brands can often rival – or surpass – large-format retailers. And by thinking out of the anchor box and choosing tenants that cultivate a balanced visitor flow and align with local preferences, operators can position their centers as true go-to destinations.
