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Affecting everything from merchandise sales to local bars to entire neighborhoods, the economic effect of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ road to the World Series cannot be disputed.
After a comeback from 5-0 to win 7-6 against the New York Yankees, the Dodgers kept everyone on the edge of their seats. With history made by Freddie Freeman’s walk-off grand slam to win Game 1, fans will have moments seared in their memories for decades to come. Dodgers fans are willing to shell out big to celebrate their champions. Fanatics reported that after winning Wednesday night, “the Dodgers set a Fanatics sales record for first-hour sales of a team's merchandise, across any sport, after claiming a championship.” The top five players for merchandise sales were Ohtani, Freeman, Betts, Yamamoto, and Kershaw.
Local bars in various parts of L.A. that featured Dodgers games saw an uptick in year-over-year traffic most weeks, particularly in recent weeks leading up to the National League Championship and the World Series. Spontaneous parades erupted in locations such as Whittier Blvd in East L.A., in Downtown L.A., and near Dodger Stadium in Elysian Park.
We’ve previously written about the Shohei Effect on hotels like the Miyako that features the mural “LA Rising” by Robert Vargas, but now after a World Series championship, the Boys in Blue are set to go even higher into the stratosphere of fandom. We looked at the foot traffic to Dodger Stadium and to Little Tokyo, and no surprise there’s definitely an uptick to the latter on game days, especially on Saturdays. Vargas is currently working on a mural of the late Fernando Valenzuela in Boyle Heights, and Angelenos will likely be flocking in droves to come see “Fernandomania Forever” when it is unveiled.
One interesting finding is that visitation was actually higher during some of the regular season games than for the World Series Games 1 and 2 that took place in LA. One reason may be the sky high prices. Per reseller Ticket IQ, “the average price for a World Series ticket on the secondary market was $3,887, the second most expensive average since it started tracking data in 2010.” For some fans, it was a dream of a lifetime, one that some were willing to “sell a kidney” to attend.
As we enter November, the holiday season is already in full swing across the country. We’re likely to see the consumer’s embrace of seasonal decorations soon, just as we saw in the fall season. The retail industry has already lived through one major promotional event in October, and it’s time to take the temperature on physical retail foot traffic as we head into the busiest part of the season.
One thing that jumped out upon initial review was the foot traffic from department stores, excluding off-price retail. Looking at the four full weeks of October 2024, traffic to full line department stores was flat to last year, compared to the same period last year when traffic was down 8% to 2022 in October (store counts are about even to last year). Visits to luxury department stores show a similar story; traffic in 2023 was down 9% in October and trended down 2% this year. Coming from a sector of retail that has been challenged for years, this slight improvement is worthy of celebration.
Just how important is October’s contribution to holiday shopping visits? For full line department stores, October accounted for 22% of total holiday season visits in both 2022 and 2023; October traffic for luxury department stores was 24% of total holiday traffic in 2022 and 23% in 2023. That means that there’s still almost ¾ of total visitation still left for retailers to capture over the next two months. However, with traffic trending better in 2024 than in 2023 for department stores overall, this year might actually be a proof point for pull forward holiday demand.
Looking at visitation by retailers within the two sectors, Dillard’s, unsurprisingly led the charge for full line department stores in visitation growth. JCPenney also saw a lot of trend improvement compared to last year, as did Macy’s in the back half of the month. The only major retailer that has underperformed 2023 in October was Kohl’s. Through the lens of luxury department stores, Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom grew traffic in the low to mid-single digits in October, with Neiman Marcus only down slightly to 2023 levels.
Another interesting insight Placer’s data uncovered; department stores are more of a destination for consumers this year. Looking at Macy’s cross-visitation specifically in October, the percent of visitors to Macy’s that traveled home after visiting was almost 50 basis points higher than in 2023. Our data also showed a lower percentage of cross visitation between Macy’s and other department stores this year compared to last October. Department stores may be doing a better job of capturing consumers' attention and better aligning themselves with the needs of their shoppers. This is in contrast of what we're seeing in essential retail categories such as grocery stores and superstores, where consumers are willing to cross shop multiple retailers; this underscores just how different consumer behavior is by category.
What does this signal about the remainder of the “true” holiday season? It’s hard to tell as we stand today, but the trend improvement across department stores this year gives us some optimism about consumers flocking to physical stores this year. But, it’s important to give consumers a reason to visit as many times as possible, especially as retail fatigue sets in from shopping earlier in the season. Value is still going to be the top driver of visitation this year, but unique products, services and experiences are still important to capturing the joy of the season.
If you’ve ever wished you could root for your alma mater from afar, attend a World Series, or blast into space, Cosm may have the solution. This immersive technology company combines state-of-the art stadium experiences with dining and bar service. Think a smaller version of the Sphere, a larger version of an IMAX theater, with the simulation of being at an actual stadium all while enjoying the comforts of a booth with food brought to you.
For fans of large screen immersive experiences, this venue allows you to be enveloped by the aquatic performers of Cirque du Soleil's “O”, feel like you’re on the 50-yard line for the Ohio State versus Penn State football game, or be a pioneering astronaut seeing the earth from space in “Orbital.”
Since it opened at the end of June this year, popular showings have included “Seek,” which takes you on a journey through the cosmos, as well as sports favorites like the New York Jets versus Pittsburgh Steelers game. Game 2 of the World Series had a sell-out crowd as those who chose not to buy tickets for thousands of dollars still had the joy of celebrating in an arena venue with hundreds of other fans, with the feeling of being behind the dugout.
The Los Angeles Times describes Cosm as “part planetarium, part mini-Sphere,” so instead of needing to travel to Griffith Observatory or Las Vegas, one can just jet down the 405 to Inglewood to have a similar experience. So, who’s visiting Cosm? Roughly 3 in 10 (29%) have a hold income (HHI) of $50K-$99.9K. Nearly 1 in 5 (19%) have a HHI of $25K-$49.9K. These two household income segments over index compared to the CA household incomes (shown in gray).
In terms of demographics, per Spatial.ai PersonaLive, Near-Urban Diverse Families, Educated Urbanites, and Melting Pot Families make up the top 3 segments.
Starbucks, the largest coffee chain in the world, and Dutch Bros, one of the fastest growing in the country, are major players in the hot and cold beverage space. With Q3 2024 in the rearview mirror, we took a closer look at the visitation patterns to both chains to see how they are faring – and what might lie ahead for both brands.
Starbucks is one of the most dominant names in coffee across the world, with thousands of stores in the United States alone. Between July 2023 and July 2024, the chain added more than 500 stores to its domestic fleet, bringing its U.S. store count to 16,730. And though Starbucks has faced its share of challenges, these store additions helped keep overall traffic to the coffee leader on par with 2023 levels throughout the summer – though visits dipped somewhat in September as consumers went back to their routines.
But digging deeper into the visit data shows that even as Starbucks saw overall foot traffic growth stall in Q3, the number of short visits to the chain – i.e. those lasting less than 10 minutes – increased. In August and September 2024, the chain drew 8.5% and 4.7% more short visits, respectively, than in the same periods of 2023 – revealing how important these quick stops are for the chain.
In-app ordering, which together with drive-thru orders made up about 70% of sales at the chain as of January 2024, may be contributing to the short visit trend. Still, new CEO Brian Niccol is looking for ways to return the chain to its roots as the third place, and the chain may yet implement shifts to encourage longer visits in the coming months.
Dutch Bros has been one of the most impressive coffee chains to watch over the past few years. The Oregon-based chain has been on an expansion tear – opening more than 150 stores between Q2 2023 and Q2 2024 – and has seen the elevated monthly visits to match. Between June and September 2024, visits to Dutch Bros increased between 13.7% and 16.9%, highlighting the chain’s success at growing its audience.
But like at Starbucks, short visits outperformed longer ones at Dutch Bros – and by a lot. In September 2024, for example, overall visits to the chain grew by 13.7% – but visits lasting less than 10 minutes shot up by 26.6%.
The strength of these short visits, for both Starbucks and Dutch Bros, suggests a shift towards convenience, with both chains utilizing drive-thru services and in-app ordering to accommodate busy consumers.
Digging down deeper into the data shows that for both Starbucks and Dutch Bros, these all-important short visits follow a distinct weekly pattern.
While longer visits (≥10 minutes) to both chains peaked in Q3 2024 on Saturdays, shorter visits were more evenly distributed throughout the week, peaking on Fridays. Overall, 34.1% of long visits to Starbucks, and 37.8% of long visits to Dutch Bros, took place on the weekends in Q3 2024 – compared to 28.1% and and 28.7%, respectively, for shorter visits.
Unsurprisingly, customers may be more likely to grab a quick coffee to go during the work week. And with the return to office still underway, quick visits may be enjoying a boost fueled by commuters in need of a quick cubicle pick-me-up.
As Starbucks works to adapt to shifting consumer preferences, understanding when customers spend more time in-store can help the brand reconnect with its roots as a community hub. And Dutch Bros can continue to enhance the quick-service experience that has fueled its growth. How will the two chains continue to perform in what remains a competitive coffee environment?
Follow Placer.ai for the latest data-driven dining insights.
In recent years, Americans have gotten serious about fitness. Even as consumers tightened their purse strings, they found room in their budgets for the ultimate affordable indulgence: A (relatively) low-cost gym membership that, once paid, offers customers unlimited access to club facilities.
How did Planet Fitness, the nation’s largest value gym perform in Q3 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Planet Fitness has been on a roll. In Q2 2024, the chain reported a 4.2% system-wide increase in same store sales and the addition of 18 new gyms to its fleet. (Though Planet Fitness operates clubs outside the U.S., the vast majority of its some 2600 locations are domestic).
Foot traffic data shows that the chain continued to thrive through Q3, with year-over-year (YoY) monthly visit upticks ranging from 4.1% to 11.6% – outperforming the wider industry. And while the value gym giant finally raised the price of its basic membership this summer for the first time in more than thirty years, the move does not seem to have dented Planet Fitness’ growth trajectory – though it’s still early days.
Planet Fitness takes pains to emphasize its commitment to being a “Judgement Free Zone” – and casual gym-goers make up a significant portion of its visitor base. In Q3 2024, 44.3% of visitors hit the club, on average, less than twice a month.
But Planet Fitness also has a significant – and growing – share of die-hard gym buffs who visit the club at least eight or ten times a month - i.e. at least twice a week. In Q3 2024, a full 16.8% of visitors to Planet Fitness came to the gym at least eight times a month on average – up from just 12.9% in 2019 and 15.3% in 2022. And 11.9% visited the chain ten or more times a month – up from 8.6% in 2019 and 10.6% in 2022.
Though casual visitors are also important for any fitness club’s bottom line, a strong and thriving community of highly committed members is an important foundation for future growth.
Gym visit frequency, however, varies throughout the United States. Analyzing the share of highly committed visitors to Planet Fitness reveals significant differences between states.
New Mexico led the pack in Q3 with 13.9% of visitors frequenting the gym, on average, at least ten times a month – followed by Rhode Island (13.1%) and California (12.7%). On the other end of the spectrum lay Montana, where just 6.0% of club goers were highly committed visitors in Q3, followed by Iowa (7.7%) and Vermont (8.0%).
This data highlights how gym engagement can be influenced by regional factors such as lifestyle, climate, and access to alternative fitness options – suggesting that Planet Fitness and similar chains may benefit from tailoring their marketing and membership strategies to local trends and preferences.
The holiday season isn’t a particularly busy one for gyms – which usually see traffic begin to slow down in September before picking up again in the new year. But if Planet Fitness’ solid September 2024 performance is any indication, the chain may be in for a busier fourth quarter this year than last. Will Planet Fitness continue to deliver as the year draws to a close?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
In a market ruled by value and convenience, traditional full-service restaurants (FSRs) have faced an uphill slog. But even in 2024, some FSRs are flourishing. We dove into the data to explore factors driving success at three very different full-service chains: First Watch, Chili’s Grill & Bar, and Outback Steakhouse.
First Watch first burst onto the scene in 1983 with a single restaurant in California – and now boasts some 544 locations across 29 states. With offerings ranging from Superfood Kale Salads to more traditional pancakes and bacon and eggs, First Watch has emerged as a prime destination for diners seeking to enjoy a leisurely breakfast with family and friends.
And foot traffic data shows that First Watch, still firmly in expansion mode, is continuing to grow its audience. Between June and September 2024, First Watch saw consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, outperforming both the full-service restaurant category and other diners & breakfast spots.
One factor that may be helping to propel First Watch’s success is the relative affluence of its customer base. Analyzing the income breakdown of First Watch’s trade area shows that in Q3 2024, nearly ten percent (9.7%) of households in the chain’s captured market earned $200K+ per year, compared with 6.5% for diners & breakfast chains and 6.9% for the wider FSR space. On the flip side, only 43.9% of households in First Watch’s captured market had annual incomes below $75K, compared to just over 50.0% for both analyzed segments.
Amidst concerns surrounding food inflation, rising labor costs, and discretionary spending cutbacks, First Watch’s wealthier customer base may be helping to shield it from some of the value pressures that have weighed on other restaurants – contributing to its resilience.
Another FSR that has been experiencing outsized visit growth this year – at least since April – is Chili’s Grill & Bar. Following a tepid start to the year, Chili’s launched its much-vaunted Big Smasher Burger on April 29th, 2024, and hasn’t looked back since.
The new offering, added to Chili’s 3 For Me value menu, presented a full-service value challenge to QSR favorites like the Big Mac. And in Q2 2023, the item helped drive a 14.8% increase in same-store sales.
Since the big launch, weekly YoY visits to Chili’s have been consistently elevated – kept aloft with the help of viral hype around Chili’s long standing Triple Dipper offering, as well as the new secret Nashville Hot Mozz offering that became so popular it spawned a halloween costume.
Unlike First Watch, Chili’s has found success by embracing its role as a value chain. The median household income (HHI) of Chili’s captured market in Q3 2024 was $73.1K – below the nationwide median of $76.1K, and on par with that of the wider FSR space ($73.7K – By way of comparison, the median HHI of First Watch’s captured market was $85.6K in Q3).
And a closer look at the demographic make-up of Chili’s captured market shows just how broad the appeal of the chain is. In Q3 2024, Chili’s visitor base was over-represented for a wide range of segments across age and income groups – from “Wealthy Suburban Families” to “Young Urban Singles”, “Suburban Boomers’, and residents of “Blue Collar Suburbs”. By delivering high-quality meals at affordable prices, Chili’s has solidified its place as an everyman’s chain, offering value comparable to that of quick-service restaurants.
Aussie-themed Outback Steakhouse – Bloomin’ Brands’ biggest chain – is another full-service restaurant that is successfully weathering the storm. Like other FSRs, Outback has faced its fair share of challenges over the past few years, with rising costs and spending cutbacks taking a toll on the chain’s performance. But in Q3 2024, the average number of visits to each Outback Steakhouse location increased 0.5% YoY, even as overall traffic to the chain fell 1.7% in the wake of strategic rightsizing moves that included the shuttering of a number of underperforming locations. By contrast, the average number of visits per location in the wider FSR space dropped 1.2%, while overall foot traffic to the segment fell 2.1%. Outback Steakhouse’s ability to sustain a YoY visit-per-location uptick in Q3, even if a minor one, shows that its rightsizing efforts are paying off.
And drilling down deeper into regional data for the chain shows that in some areas of the country, Outback Steakhouse is positively thriving. In California, Outback’s third-largest market in terms of store count, the chain saw a YoY visit increase of 5.3% – significantly higher than the statewide FSR average of 1.1%. In Washington and Oregon, Outback Steakhouse experienced even more substantial visit increases – 9.0% and 9.6%, respectively – even as full-service restaurants generally languished. And in all three states, the number of Outback Steakhouse locations has remained basically unchanged over the past year, meaning that these increases reflect the growing draw of the chain’s existing venues.
First Watch, Chili’s Grill & Bar, and Outback Steakhouse are very different full-service chains – but each of them is thriving in its own way. How will the three brands fare as the holiday season picks up steam?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven dining analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
