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If you’ve been to your local recreation center or even shopping center lately, pickleball is definitely still going on strong. Invented in 1965 on Bainbridge Island, for many decades it was considered more of a seniors’ recreational activity. But with the recent explosion of interest and proliferation of courts, we may be about to see the same snowboarding vs skiing battle that occurred in the 1980s and 1990s, except instead of the young punks carving down the slopes, it’s people of all ages carving out Pickleball courts with tape to the dismay of their tennis-loving brethren and sound-sensitive neighbors.
According to the Sports and Fitness Industry Association (SFIA), “pickleball continues to be the fastest growing sport in America, having grown 51.8% from 2022 to 2023 and an incredible 223.5% in 4 years since 2020.” The sport has some similarities to tennis, table tennis, and badminton, but one reason it has become so popular is the social nature of it - often played as doubles - and the fact that since the court is smaller, there’s less running to engage in, but there is still the excitement of rapid volleying. The ability to serve underhand also makes it more accessible to new players.
Pickleball America bills itself as “one of the largest indoor pickleball venues in America” and with 80,000 sq ft at the Stamford Town Center, it clearly can live up to that claim. With clever events like “Dinko de Mayo” or resident events to bring a nearby living community together, pickleball could just be the glue that starts to bring people together for socialization and cure the loneliness epidemic. Indoor pickleball venues can also be a source of family fun, with lounges and fresh popcorn available, as well as foosball, table tennis, and essential board games.
Another sport that may be giving tennis and pickleball a run for its money is padel. This sport has the unique benefit of one being able to hit shots off the fence or wall, often made of glass or mesh, that is at the perimeter. So now we’re talking 3D thinking as one figures out what angles to hit.
One can fit about 2 padel courts on a tennis court, and up to 4 pickleball courts on a tennis court. So from an economics perspective, you can definitely charge for more people when playing padel or pickleball. Padel is described more as a mix of tennis, squash, and badminton and is the fastest-growing sport globally with over 25 million players in 90+ countries, per PadAthletes. At P1 Padel in Las Vegas, NV, the most popular times to frequent are in the evening from 6-8 PM. There is also a morning contingent between 9-11 AM.
Padel players at this location are quite loyal, with a majority coming 30+ times in the past 12 months.
With pickleball and padel nipping at its heels, the USTA (US Tennis Association) is fighting back with its own version of more accessible tennis, namely “red ball.” With a smaller court, a smaller racket, and balls that are up to 75% slower, this version helps newbies obtain control over the ball more quickly and has less ground to cover for those lateral runs and quick pivots. Schroeder Tennis Center in Tipp City, OH is one such location that is participating in this USTA pilot program. The bulk of visits are between 4-8 pm, which are prime post-school or post-work hours. According to the Tennis Industry Association, 23.8 million Americans ages 6 and older played tennis at least once in 2023 and 25.1 million Americans who didn’t play tennis in 2023 are “very interested” in doing so now.
Tennis has a long and storied history and iconic locations like Wimbledon and Roland Garros. What young tennis player doesn’t dream of their moment on Center Court? Tennis also has associations with country clubs and networking. It will likely remain the king of racquet sports. But these two new princes of pickleball and padel prove that tennis cannot just rest on its laurels but will need to evolve in order to stay competitive.
We’re in the midst of not only the beginning of the holiday season in retail, but also at the peak of wedding season. September and October are now the most popular months to get married, and fall weddings have become extremely popular with younger generations. Wedding planning encompasses so many different occasions, events and appointments, but none more important than wedding dress shopping.
The bridal retail space across the U.S. is incredibly fragmented, with much of the business being done by local boutiques and small chains with a handful of stores. However, there are still major retailers in the market and more entering each year. Brands in apparel have especially taken note with Abercrombie & Fitch, Reformation and e-commerce brands like Lulus all making a play at capturing a bride’s attention.
Two larger, more established forces in bridal retail include David’s Bridal and Anthropologie Weddings (formerly known as BHLDN). Both concepts have distinct value propositions for their consumers, but both aim at providing an elevated assortment and experience that is also value oriented. As value continues to be a motivating factor across all consumer decision making, both of these retailers have seen positive momentum in 2024.
Looking at year-over-year change in visitation, Anthropologie Weddings locations have consistently seen traffic growth in 2024 and have outperformed the total chain from a visitation perspective. The wedding shop is not located in all Anthropologie stores, but the stores that do have the concept cater to a higher income and trendy consumer; the location selection of towns such as Newport Beach, Westport, CT, and Newton, MA has certainly benefited the stores.
The median household income of visits to Anthropologie weddings is $117K compared to $94K chainwide. Despite the higher income profile of visitors to the wedding focused stores, Anthropologie Weddings still does appeal to value-conscious brides, despite socioeconomic status; most bridal gowns are under $2,500, which is still relatively affordable based on the industry standard.
Looking at the audience segmentation of visitors to Anthropologie Weddings compared to the total chain using PersonaLive, the wedding shops saw almost double the share of visits from Educated Urbanites, a key segment for a bridal business to not only capture, but convert. All of this highlights the success of the brand’s wedding strategy, from its location selection, to assortment and experience, which are distinctly Anthropologie, but also fitting of a special trip. Other retailers looking to make a splash in the bridal market should certainly look to Anthropologie as a case study in brand extension.
David’s Bridal had a challenging start to 2024, mirroring a few years of challenging foot traffic to its stores. However, around the midpoint of the year, there’s been an acceleration in visitation across the chain. Looking at visitation trends for 2023 and 2024, the brand started to close the gap in August. As a true value centered bridal retailer, the brand may have found its moment in the current economic climate.
Looking at the change in visitation throughout 2024, from January to July, on average, visits were down 32% YoY; from August through the most recent week, visits were down only 2% year-over-year. That’s a great improvement in trend against the backdrop of a challenging year, and even more interesting when thinking about the lead time brides have for ordering wedding gowns; most dresses for fall weddings would have been ordered in the winter or spring months, where David’s Bridal sees higher levels of visitation.
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The audience segmentation of the brand has also shifted over that time. Compared to 2023 as a benchmark, the period of August 2024 through present has seen a higher share of visits from Suburban Boomers and Melting Pot Families, and a slight increase in Young Professionals. The brand also stocks special occasion and homecoming dresses, which both could appeal to these groups.
Using Placer’s Frequent Co-Tenants report, David’s Bridal locations tend to be co-located with other specialty retailers, including Five Below, Ulta Beauty, and Ross Dress for Less, who are also value oriented and the latter two retailers have been doing well in securing more traffic. The stores may have benefits from their co-location with retailers that meet current consumer desires.
Weddings continue to be a big business across the U.S., and retailers that support the wedding industry have a lot of opportunities for growth, if they can find and appeal to the right consumer cohorts. Brides of all levels are looking for an elevated experience and selection, no matter her budget.
We’ve spent a lot of time this past year analyzing how consumer behavior has evolved across the broader food and essentials category, noting that consumers continue to shop a wide number of stores across multiple channels for food purchases. With the release of Placer Data Version 2.1, we thought we’d revisit the topic.
Below, we’ve presented total category visits for grocery stores (including both conventional and value grocery chains), superstores (including mass merchants and warehouse clubs), gas stations and convenience stores, dollar and discount stories (including liquidators), drugstores, quick-service restaurants (QSR), and full-service restaurants from 2019 to the trailing-twelve-month period (TTM0. A few takeaways: (1) Dollar stores saw the largest increase in total visits versus the other categories as they vastly expanded their food and consumables offering since 2019 to drive frequency and traffic. However, the pace of growth has decelerated materially over the past twelve months amid increased competitive pressure from superstore and value-oriented retailers like Aldi and 99 Cents Only Stores exiting the market; (2) drugstore visits have remained flat versus 2019 despite most of the major chains in the category undergoing store closure programs. We believe healthcare service and weight-loss drug prescriptions visits have helped to offset some of the store closures, although we continue to see some transfer of visits to other retail categories in this channel; and (3) the decline in full-service restaurants is partly due to permanent closures compared to 2019.
It gets interesting when we compare category-level retail sales data from the U.S. Census Bureau to our visitation data. Below, we’ve taken retail sales (on an unadjusted basis) for the same timeframe that we looked at above to analyze retail spend per visit. A few things stand out here: (1) Three categories saw the average retail sales per visit increase period of the analysis: QSR, full-service restaurants, and drugstores. The increase in drugstores is likely partly to due with the shift in sales mix to more healthcare related services, while the increase in QSR and full-service restaurant retail sales per visit likely explain this summer’s promotional activity to win back customers who traded to other channels; (2) The impact of increased promotional activity and fewer units purchased per transaction can be seen across the other categories, where we saw an inflection in retail sales per visit in 2023 and continuing into 2024 for most.
We also thought we’d assess dwell times across the different food and essentials retail categories (for purposes of this analysis, we’ve removed full-service restaurants, which have gone from an average dwell time of 52 minutes in 2019 to 49 minutes over the past twelve months, although we continue to see fine-dining chain dwell times exceed pre-pandemic levels as consumers look to maximize their experience when dining out). Here, we also see two callouts: (1) As consumers make food purchases across a wider number of channels, dwell time has decreased for most, matching the decrease in units per transaction that we've called out in the past. We did see dwell times increase for a few categories during the back half of 2023 which we believe was due to consumers engaging in price comparisons, but this has reversed in 2024 as consumers have now solidified new shopping routines (i.e., knowing what stores to get what deals); and (2) QSR dwell time remains below pre-pandemic levels, which isn’t surprising given that a higher percentage of transactions are now taking place via drive-thru and takeout orders. However, the increase in dwell time the past few years also suggests the potential for improved drive-thru optimization, a topic we recently analyzed.
Carter’s Inc., owner of the OshKosh B’gosh and Carter’s baby and children’s clothing brands, is a major player in the nation’s $28 billion children's clothing industry. As of the end of 2023, the company boasted nearly 800 physical stores throughout the U.S. And after closing hundreds of stores in 2020, the brand is back to betting big on brick-and-mortar – with plans to open some 250 new U.S. locations by 2027.
How is Carter's faring in 2024? We took a closer look to find out.
Discretionary spending cutbacks and the rise of online shopping have weighed on apparel retailers in recent years. But some clothing chains – including Carter’s – are bucking the trend. Between January and September 2024, monthly visits to Carter’s stores generally outpaced the wider apparel industry, with some months posting double-digit growth.
March and August 2024 saw respective YoY visit increases of 16.0% and 14.4%, likely driven by pre-Easter and back-to-school shopping. (March and August 2024 each also had one more Saturday than March or August 2023 – a busy day for clothing stores.) And Carter’s finished out Q3 2024 with a 4.3% YoY visit increase, even as the broader apparel category saw just a minor 0.8% uptick.
Indeed, examining weekly foot traffic to Carter's highlights the seasonality of the company’s visitation patterns. Visits are typically lower during the colder winter months but pick up in anticipation of Easter and spring break – likely encouraged by spring sales held by the brand.
Carter’s real spike, however, comes during the back-to-school season, when parents head to the store to pick up new clothing for the school year – and when Carter's holds major back-to-school sales. During the week of August 5th, foot traffic surged to 29.5% above the year-to-date (YTD) weekly visit average. And with the holiday season fast approaching – including major retail milestones like Black Friday and Super Saturday – the children's retailer appears poised to enjoy continued success.
Unsurprisingly, Carter's attracts family segments to its stores, and over-indexes for wealthy and suburban family markets.
Using the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset to analyze Carter's trade areas reveals that, on a nationwide level, the company’s captured market has higher shares of wealthy and suburban consumer segments than its potential one. (A chain’s potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to population size, thus reflecting the overall makeup of the chain’s trade area. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base).
Between January and September 2024, the shares of “Wealthy Suburban Families” and “Ultra Wealthy Families” in Carter's captured market stood at 12.5% and 8.9%, respectively – outpacing the company’s potential market shares. This highlights Carter's’ success in attracting these high-income family segments. Meanwhile, households hailing from “Blue Collar Suburbs” were underrepresented in Carter's captured market compared to its potential one. This suggests that, as Carter’s continues to open stores, targeting blue collar suburban areas may pay off for the brand.
Carter's is managing not just to survive, but to thrive. After closing stores during the pandemic, the company is back with full force, driving visits and maximizing high-traffic periods.
Will Carter's continue to outpace the wider apparel category during the upcoming holiday season?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail insights.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Recovering consumer sentiment has provided a boost to restaurants in recent months – but not all dining segments are performing equally well.
We dove into the data to check in with two casual dining steakhouse chains that were recently named America’s favorite full-service restaurants – Texas Roadhouse and Darden’s LongHorn Steakhouse. How did they perform in Q3? And what are some of the factors contributing to their success?
Since April 2024, Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse have both experienced consistently positive YoY foot traffic – outpacing the wider full-service restaurant space. The steakhouses’ strongest months were in May and June, when both chains traditionally draw big Mother’s Day and Father’s Day crowds. In August, too – prime vacation season – Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse experienced 12.5% and 9.3% YoY visit increases, respectively.
On a quarterly basis, YoY visits to Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse increased 5.9% and 4.0%, respectively, in Q3 2024 – while the wider FSR space saw a 2.0% decline. And though some of this growth can be attributed to the chains’ expanding footprints, the average number of visits to each chain’s individual locations also rose YoY (3.0% for Texas Roadhouse and 2.6% for LongHorn Steakhouse).
What is the secret to these steakhouses’ success? One factor that appears to be driving growth for both restaurants is their relative affordability – especially on weekday afternoons. The cost of beef has continued to climb in recent months – and though the two chains have been forced to raise prices, they have remained committed to providing high-quality meals that don’t break the bank.
One way they’ve done so is through weekday specials that allow hungry customers to indulge as they go about their routines. Texas Roadhouse’s Early Dine Menu offers diners a variety of entrees for $8.99 to $11.99 – as long as they snag them before the dinner time rush. LongHorn Steakhouse, for its part, offers a lunchtime special on Mondays through Saturdays from 11:00 AM to 3:00 PM, including an $8.99 sandwich combo.
And foot traffic data suggests that these offerings may be helping to drive traffic to the two chains. In Q3 2024 (July to September), both Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse saw significantly higher weekday YoY visit growth during the afternoons – 9.7% and 8.0% respectively, compared to 6.8% and 4.3% after 6:00 PM. The accelerating return-to-office push may also be contributing to the two chains’ YoY visit growth, as commuters seek out affordable places to have lunch with colleagues.
Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse are both major national chains – with locations spread across the continental U.S. But a look at the geographic distribution of visits to the two steakhouse giants shows that each of them has a somewhat different regional focus. Though Georgia – where LongHorn Steakhouse was founded – is the brand’s second-largest market in terms of restaurant count, the Peach State garnered the highest share of visits to the chain in Q3 2024 (13.3%). Next in line was Florida, with 12.6% of visits. For Louisiana-based Texas Roadhouse, on the other hand, Texas was at the center of it all – with Florida coming in a not-so-close second.
Both chains, however, share some major markets – including Ohio (about six percent of visits to each chain) and Pennsylvania (about five percent of visits to each chain) – showing that many regional markets have plenty of room for high-quality, affordable steakhouses.
And a look at the demographic profiles of Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse’s trade areas shows that like other successful chains, both brands appeal to a wide range of audience segments. The eateries’ captured markets boast higher-than-average shares of very different suburban segments – from wealthy and upper-middle-class suburban families to suburban boomers and residents of blue collar suburbs.
Full-service restaurants still face significant hurdles in 2024 – from rising costs to discretionary spending cutbacks. The 2024 consumer prioritizes value and convenience, making it difficult for traditional sit-down eateries to compete. But the continued success of Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse proves that even in today’s difficult environment, FSR chains that succeed in providing affordable, high quality offerings can thrive.
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This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
About the Mall Index: The Index analyzes data from 100 top-tier indoor malls, 100 open-air shopping centers (not including outlet malls) and 100 outlet malls across the country, in both urban and suburban areas. Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the country.
It was an amazing summer for malls, with August proving an especially strong month across all three mall categories – indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls. Between huge blockbuster summer releases, rising consumer confidence, and favorable weather, malls drew bigger crowds than they did last year. The week of August 12th saw YoY visit boosts of 5.6% for indoor malls, 5.8% for open-air centers, and 2.8% for outlet malls. (Outlet malls saw a more impressive YoY boost of 5.4% during the week of August 5th).
As the summer wound down and families settled into back-to-school routines, mall traffic leveled off – with weekly YoY visits ranging from -2.9% to 2.2% in September. But September’s relative quiet won’t last long. Mall traffic is expected to ramp up again in October as early holiday promotions begin to draw crowds, as both retailers and consumers gear up for this year’s shorter holiday shopping season — just 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
September’s relative quiet notwithstanding, the first Monday of the month – Labor Day – is always a busy one for retailers, and this year was no different. Eager crowds converged on malls during the holiday to take advantage of special sales and enjoy a day of retail therapy.
Compared to the average year-to-date Monday, indoor malls saw a 61.5% increase in foot traffic on Labor Day, while open-air shopping centers saw a 34.1% rise. But it was outlet malls that really hit it out of the park with a remarkable 110.7% boost. Outlet malls often lead during holiday weekends, as shoppers take advantage of their time off for an extended excursion.
What do malls’ 2024 performance thus far tell us about what they can expect this holiday season?
If the rest of the year is any indication, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers are poised for a robust holiday season, having experienced YoY visit growth during every quarter of the year so far. And while outlet mall visits have largely remained aligned with 2023 levels, they are traditionally strong performers during the holidays – so a solid season is still expected for them as well.
Indeed, in past years, outlet malls have proven to be major holiday shopping destinations. Comparing weekly visits to malls in 2022 and 2023 to each year’s weekly visit average shows significant surges in November and December, with outlet malls seeing the most pronounced spikes.
During the week before Christmas in 2023, for example, outlet malls saw visits soar 79.3%, compared to 72.8% for indoor malls and 47.8% for open-air shopping centers. And on Black Friday outlet malls were the clear winners – with a 59.3% visit spike compared to 36.9% for indoor malls and just 18.2% for open-air centers.
This year is expected to follow suit, with all three mall categories likely to see heavy traffic during the peak holiday weeks—and outlet malls expected to shine especially bright as shoppers go the extra mile to seek out the best deals.
The holiday season not only boosts mall traffic but also shifts consumer behavior. Data from the past two years shows that malls’ average dwell times tend to increase during the all-important final quarter. In both 2022 and 2023, indoor and outlet malls saw average Q4 visit durations rise by about a minute compared to the rest of the year. Though a one-minute increase might appear minor, even a small shift in the overall average is significant given the millions of visits that take place during this period.
This trend highlights a shift in consumer behavior during the holidays, as visitors spend more time strolling through malls to snag special deals and seek out ideal gifts for loved ones. Interestingly, open-air shopping centers, which also saw smaller holiday visit peaks, did not show the same shift in dwell time – suggesting that visitor interaction with these centers during the holidays is more in line with that observed throughout the rest of the year.
As October unfolds, and malls begin to fill with holiday scents, music, decor, and promotions, the sector appears well-positioned for a strong holiday season. And this optimism is even further bolstered by predictions of increased consumer spending in the months ahead.
Will malls meet these high expectations during the upcoming season? Follow our blog at Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
1. Appetite for offline retail & dining is stronger than ever. Both retail and dining visits were higher in H1 2025 than they were pre-pandemic.
2. Consumers are willing to go the extra mile for the perfect product or brand. The era of one-stop-shops may be waning, as many consumers now prefer to visit multiple chains or stores to score the perfect product match for every item on their shopping list.
3. Value – and value perception – gives chains a clear advantage. Value-oriented retail and dining segments have seen their visits skyrocket since the pandemic.
4. Consumer behavior has bifurcated toward budget and premium options. This trend is driving strength at the ends of the spectrum while putting pressure on many middle-market players.
5. The out-of-home entertainment landscape has been fundamentally altered. Eatertainment and museums have stabilized at a different set point than pre-COVID, while movie theater traffic trends are now characterized by box-office-driven volatility.
6. Hybrid work permanently reshaped office utilization. Visits to office buildings nationwide are still 33.3% below 2019 levels, despite RTO efforts.
The first half of 2025 marked five years since the onset of the pandemic – an event that continues to impact retail, dining, entertainment, and office visitation trends today.
This report analyzes visitation patterns in the first half of 2025 compared to H1 2019 and H1 2024 to identify some of the lasting shifts in consumer behavior over the past five years. What is driving consumers to stores and dining venues? Which categories are stabilizing at a higher visit point? Where have the traffic declines stalled? And which segments are still in flux? Read the report to find out.
In the first half of 2025, visits to both the retail and dining segments were consistently higher than they were in 2019. In both the dining and the retail space, the increases compared to pre-COVID were probably driven by significant expansions from major players, including Costco, Chick-fil-A, Raising Cane's, and Dutch Bros, which offset the numerous retail and dining closures of recent years.
The overall increase in visits indicates that, despite the ubiquity of online marketplaces and delivery services, consumer appetite for offline retail and dining remains strong – whether to browse in store, eat on-premises, collect a BOPIS order, or pick up takeaway.
A closer look at the chart above also reveals that, while both retail and dining visits have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, retail visit growth has slightly outpaced the dining traffic increase.
The larger volume of retail visits could be due to a shift in consumer behavior – from favoring convenience to prioritizing the perfect product match and exhibiting a willingness to visit multiple chains to benefit from each store's signature offering. Indeed, zooming into the superstore and grocery sector shows an increase in cross-shopping since COVID, with a larger share of visitors to major grocery chains regularly visiting superstores and wholesale clubs. It seems, then, that many consumers are no longer looking for a one-stop-shop where they can buy everything at once. Instead, shoppers may be heading to the grocery stores for some things, the dollar store for other items, and the wholesale club for a third set of products.
This trend also explains the success of limited assortment grocers in recent years – shoppers are willing to visit these stores to pick up their favorite snack or a particularly cheap store-branded basic, knowing that this will be just one of several stops on their grocery run.
Diving into the traffic data by retail category reveals that much of the growth in retail visits since COVID can be attributed to the surge in visits to value-oriented categories, such as discount & dollar stores, value grocery stores, and off-price apparel. This period has been defined by an endless array of economic obstacles like inflation, recession concerns, gas price spikes, and tariffs that all trigger an orientation to value. The shift also speaks to an ability of these categories to capitalize on swings – consumers who visited value-oriented retailers to cut costs in the short term likely continued visiting those chains even after their economic situation stabilized.
Some of the visit increases are due to the aggressive expansion strategies of leaders in those categories – including Dollar General and Dollar Tree, Aldi, and all the off-price leaders. But the dramatic increase in traffic – around 30% for all three categories since H1 2019 – also highlights the strong appetite for value-oriented offerings among today's consumers. And zooming into YoY trends shows that the visit growth is still ongoing, indicating that the demand for value has not yet reached a ceiling.
While affordable pricing has clearly driven success for value retailers, offering low prices isn't a guaranteed path to growth. Although traffic to beauty and wellness chains remains significantly higher than in 2019, this growth has now plateaued – even top performers like Ulta saw slight YoY declines following their post-pandemic surge – despite the relatively affordable price points found at these chains.
Some of the beauty visit declines likely stems from consumers cutting discretionary spending – but off-price apparel's ongoing success in the same non-essential category suggests budget constraints aren't the full story. Instead, the plateauing of beauty and drugstore visits while off-price apparel visits boom may be due to the difference in value perception: Off-price retailers are inherently associated with savings, while drugstores and beauty retailers, despite carrying affordable items, lack that same value-driven brand positioning. This may suggest that in today's market, perceived value matters as much as actual affordability.
Another indicator of the importance of value perception is the decline in visits to chains selling bigger-ticket items – both home furnishing chains and electronic stores saw double-digit drops in traffic since H1 2019.
And looking at YoY trends shows that visits here have stabilized – like in the beauty and drugstore categories – suggesting that these sectors have reached a new baseline that reflects permanently shifted consumer priorities around discretionary spending.
A major post-pandemic consumer trend has been the bifurcation of consumer spending – with high-end chains and discount retailers thriving while the middle falls behind. This trend is particularly evident in the apparel space – although off-price visits have taken off since 2019 (as illustrated in the earlier graph) overall apparel traffic declined dramatically – while luxury apparel traffic is 7.6% higher than in 2019.
Dining traffic trends also illustrate this shift: Categories that typically offer lower price points such as QSR, fast casual, and coffee have expanded significantly since 2019, as has the upscale & fine dining segment. But casual dining – which includes classic full-service chains such as Red Lobster, Applebee's, and TGI Fridays – has seen its footprint shrink in recent years as consumers trade down to lower-priced options or visit higher-end venues for special occasions.
Chili's has been a major exception to the casual dining downturn, largely driven by the chain's success in cementing its value-perception among consumers – suggesting that casual dining chains can still shine in the current climate by positioning themselves as leaders in value.
Consumers' current value orientation seems to be having an impact beyond the retail and dining space: When budgets are tight, spending money in one place means having less money to spend in another – and recent data suggests that the consumer resilience in retail and dining may be coming at the expense of travel – or perhaps experiences more generally.
While airport visits from domestic travelers were up compared to pre-COVID, diving into the data reveals that the growth is mostly driven by frequent travelers visiting airports two or more times in a month. Meanwhile, the number of more casual travelers – those visiting airports no more than once a month – is lower than it was in 2019.
This may suggest that – despite consumers' self-reported preferences for "memorable, shareable moments" – at least some Americans are actually de-prioritizing experiences in the first half of 2025, and choosing instead to spend their budgets in retail and dining venues.
The out of home entertainment landscape has also undergone a significant change since COVID – and the sector seems to have settled into a new equilibrium, though for part of the sector, the equilibrium is marked by consistent volatility.
Eatertainment chains – led by significant expansions from venues like Top Golf – saw a 5.5% visit increase compared to pre-pandemic levels, though YoY growth remained modest at 1.1%. On the other hand, H1 2025 museum traffic fell 10.9% below 2019 levels with flat YoY performance (+0.2%). The minimal year-over-year changes in both categories suggest that these entertainment segments have found their new post-COVID equilibrium.
The rise of eatertainment alongside the drop in museum visits may also reflect the intense focus on value for today's consumers. Museums in 2025 offer essentially the same value proposition that they offered in 2019 – and for some, that value proposition may no longer justify the entrance fee. But eatertainment has gained popularity in recent years as a format that offers consumers more bang for their buck relative to stand-alone dining or entertainment venues – which makes it the perfect candidate for success in today's value-driven consumer landscape.
But movie theaters traffic trends are still evolving – even accounting for venue closures, visits in H1 2025 were well below H1 2019 levels. But compared to 2024, movie traffic was also up – buoyed by the release of several blockbusters that drove audiences back to cinemas in the first half of 2025. So while the segment is still far from its pre-COVID baseline, movie theaters retain the potential for significant traffic spikes when compelling content drives consumer demand.
The blockbuster-driven YoY increase can perhaps also be linked to consumers' spending caution. With budgets tight, movie-goers may want to make sure that they're spending time and money on films they are sure to enjoy – taking fewer risks than they did in 2019, when movie tickets and concession prices were lower and consumers were less budget-conscious.
H1 2025 also brought some moderate good news on the return to office (RTO) front, with YoY visits nationwide up 2.1% and most offices seeing YoY office visit increases – perhaps due to the plethora of RTO mandates from major companies. But comparing office visitation levels to pre pandemic levels highlights the way left to go – nationwide visits were 33.3% below H1 2019 levels in H1 2025, with even RTO leaders New York and Miami still seeing 11.9% and 16.1% visit gaps, respectively.
So while the data suggests that the office recovery story is still being written – with visits inching up slowly – the substantial gap from pre-pandemic levels suggests that remote and hybrid work models have fundamentally reshaped office utilization patterns.
Five years post-pandemic, consumer behavior across the retail, dining, entertainment, and office spaces has crystallized into distinct new patterns.
Traffic to retail and dining venues now surpasses pre-pandemic levels, driven primarily by value-focused segments. But retail and dining segments that cater to higher income consumers –such as luxury apparel and fine dining – have also stabilized at a higher level, highlighting the bifurcation of consumer behavior that has emerged in recent years. Entertainment formats show more variability – while eatertainment traffic has settled above and museums below 2019 levels, and movie theaters still seeking stability. Office spaces remain the laggard, with visits well below pre-pandemic levels despite corporate return-to-office initiatives showing modest impact.
It seems, then, that the new consumer landscape rewards businesses that can clearly articulate their value proposition to attract consumers' increasingly selective spending and time allocation – or offer a premium product or experience catering to higher-income audiences.
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1. Overall dining traffic is mostly flat, but growth is concentrated in specific areas.
While nationwide dining visits were nearly unchanged in early 2025, western states like Utah, Idaho, and Nevada showed moderate growth, while states in the Midwest and South, along with Washington D.C., saw declines.
2. Fine dining and coffee chains are growing through expansion, not just busier locations.
These two segments were the only ones to see an increase in total visits, but their visits-per-location actually decreased, indicating that opening new stores is the primary driver of their growth.
3. Higher-income diners are driving the growth in resilient categories.
The segments that saw visit growth—fine dining and coffee—also attracted customers with the highest median household incomes, suggesting that affluent consumers are still spending on dining despite economic headwinds.
4. Remote work continues to reshape dining habits.
The share of suburban customers at fine dining establishments has increased since 2019, while it has decreased for coffee chains. This reflects a shift towards "destination" dining closer to home and away from commute-based coffee runs.
5. Limited-service restaurants own the weekdays; full-service restaurants win the weekend.
QSR, fast casual, and coffee chains see the majority of their traffic from Monday to Friday, whereas casual and fine dining see a significant spike in visits on weekends.
6. Each dining segment dominates a specific time of day.
Consumer visits are highly predictable by the hour: coffee leads in the early morning, fast casual peaks at lunch, casual dining takes the afternoon, fine dining owns the dinner slot, and QSR captures the late-night crowd.
Overall dining visits held relatively steady in the first five months of 2025, with year-over-year (YoY) visits to the category down 0.5% for January to May 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Most of the country saw slight declines (less than 2.0%), though some states and districts experienced larger drops: Washington, D.C, saw the largest visit gap (-3.6% YoY), followed by Kansas and North Dakota (-2.9%), Arkansas (-2.8%), Missouri and Kentucky (-2.6%), Oklahoma (-2.1%), and Louisiana (-2.0%).
Still, there were several pockets of moderate dining strength, specifically in the west of the United States. January to May 2025 dining visits in Utah, Idaho, and Nevada increased 1.8% to 2.4% YoY, while the coastal states saw traffic rise 0.6% (California) to 1.2% (Washington). Vermont also saw a slight increase in dining visits (+1.9%).
Diving into visit trends by dining segment shows that fine dining and coffee saw the strongest overall visit trends, with visits to the segments up 1.3% and 2.6% YoY, respectively, between January and May 2025. But visits per location trends were negative for both segments – a decline of 0.8% YoY for fine dining and 1.8% for coffee during the period – suggesting that much of the visit strength is due to expansions rather than more crowded restaurants and coffee shops.
In contrast, full-service casual dining saw overall visits decrease by 1.5%, while visits per location remained stable (+0.2%) YoY between January and May 2025. Several casual dining chains have rightsized in the past twelve months – including Red Lobster, TGI Fridays, and Outback Steakhouse – which impacted overall visit numbers. But the data seems to show that their rightsizing was effective, as the remaining locations successfully absorbed the traffic and maintained performance levels from the previous year. And the monthly data also provides much reason for optimism, with May traffic up both overall and on a visit per location basis – suggesting that the casual dining segment is well positioned for growth in the second half of 2025.
Meanwhile, QSR and fast casual chains saw similar minor visits per venue dips (-1.5% and -1.2%, respectively). At the same time, QSR also saw an overall visit dip (-0.8%) while traffic to fast casual chains increased slightly (+0.3%) – suggesting that the fast casual segment is expanding more aggressively than QSR. But the two segments decoupled somewhat in May, with overall traffic and visits per venue to fast casual chains up YoY while traffic remained flat and visits per venue fell slightly for QSR – perhaps due to the relatively greater affluence of fast casual's consumer base.
Analyzing the income levels of visitors to the various dining segments over time shows that each segment followed a slightly different trend – and the differences in visitor income may help explain some of the current traffic patterns.
The only three segments with YoY visit growth – casual dining, fine dining, and coffee – also had the highest captured market median household income (HHI). Although the median HHI in the captured market of upscale and fine dining chains fell after COVID, it has risen back steadily over time and now stands at $98.0K – slightly higher than the $97.1K median HHI between January to May 2019. This may explain the segment's resilience in the face of wider consumer headwinds. Meanwhile, the median HHI at fast casual and coffee chains has fallen slightly, perhaps due to aggressive expansions in the space – including Dave's Hot Chicken and Dutch Bros – which likely broadened the reach of the segments, driving visits up and trade area median HHI down.
Like fine dining, casual dining also saw its trade area median HHI increase slightly over time – but the segment has still been facing visit dips. This could mean that, even though consumers trading down to casual dining may have boosted the trade area median HHI for the segment, it still might not have been enough to make up for the customers lost to tighter budgets.
The QSR segment saw its trade area median HHI remain remarkably steady – and visits to the segment have also been quite consistent – staying between $70.6K and $70.9K between 2019 and 2025 – which may explain why the segment's visits remained relatively stable YoY.
Diving into the psychographic segmentation shows that, although the fine dining segment attracted visitors from the highest-income areas between January and May 2025, fast casual chains drew the highest share of visitors from suburban areas, followed by casual dining and coffee. QSR attracted the smallest share of suburban visitors, with just 30.5% of the category's captured market between January and May 2025 belonging to Spatial.ai: PersonaLive suburban segments.
But looking at the data since 2019 reveals small but significant changes in the shares of suburban audiences in some categories' captured markets. And although the percentage changes are slight, these represent hundreds of thousands of diners every year.
The data shows that shares of suburban segments in the captured markets of fine dining chains have increased, while their share in the captured market of coffee chains has decreased. The shares of suburban visitors to QSR, fast casual, and casual chains have remained relatively steady.
This may suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent rise of remote and hybrid work models are still impacting consumer dining habits, benefiting destination-worthy experiences in suburban locales such as fine dining chains while reducing the necessity of daily coffee runs that were often tied to commuting and office work. Meanwhile, the stability in QSR, fast casual, and casual dining segments could indicate that these categories continue to meet consistent suburban demand for convenience and everyday dining, largely unaffected by the redistribution seen in the fine dining and coffee sectors.
Although QSR, fast casual, casual dining, fine dining, and coffee all fall under the wider dining umbrella, the data shows distinct consumer behavior patterns regarding visits to these five categories.
Limited service segments, including QSR, fast casual, and coffee tend to see higher shares of visits on weekdays, while full service segments – casual dining and fine dining – receive higher shares of weekend visits. Diving deeper shows that QSR has the largest share of weekday visits, with 72.3% of traffic coming in between Monday and Friday, followed by fast casual (69.8% of visits on weekdays) and coffee (69.4% of visits on weekdays.) Looking at trends within the work week shows that QSR receives a slightly larger visit share between Monday and Thursday compared to the other limited service segments. Meanwhile, coffee seems to receive the smallest share of Friday visits – 16.3% compared to 17.0% for fast casual and 17.2% for QSR.
On the full-service side, casual dining and fine dining chains have relatively similar shares of weekend visits (39.0% and 38.8%, respectively), but fine dining also sees an uptick of visits on Fridays (with 19.1% of weekly visits) as consumers choose to start the weekend on a festive note.
Hourly visit patterns also show variability between the segments. Coffee is the unsurprising leader of early visits, with 14.6% of visits taking place before 8 AM and, almost two-thirds (64.9%) of visits taking place before 2 PM. Fast casual leads the lunch rush (29.4% of visits between 11 AM and 2 PM), casual dining chains receive the largest share of afternoon (2 PM to 5 PM) visits, and fine dining chains receive the largest share of dinner visits, with almost 70% of visits taking place between 5 PM and 11 PM. QSR leads the late night visit share – 4.1% of visits take place between 11 PM and 5 AM – followed by casual dining chains (3.2% late night and overnight visit share), likely due to the popularity of 24-hour diners.
This suggests that each dining segment effectively "owns" a different part of the day, from the morning coffee ritual and the quick lunch break to the leisurely evening meal and late-night cravings.
An analysis of average visit duration also reveals a small but lasting shift in post-pandemic dining behavior. Between January and May 2025, the average dwell time for nearly every dining segment was shorter than during the same period in 2019. This efficiency trend is evident across limited-service categories like QSR, fast casual, and coffee shops, suggesting a continued emphasis on speed and convenience.
The one notable exception to this trend is upscale and fine dining, where the average visit duration has actually increased compared to pre-COVID levels. This may suggest that, while visits to most segments have become more transactional, consumers are treating fine dining more as an extended, deliberate experience, reinforcing its position as a destination-worthy occasion.
1. The Midwest is the only region where Black Friday retail visits outpace Super Saturday.
But several major Midwestern markets, including Chicago and Detroit, actually see higher shopper turnout on Super Saturday.
2. Holiday season demographic shifts also vary across regions.
Nationwide, electronics stores see a slight uptick in median household income (HHI) in December – yet in certain markets, electronics retailers such as Best Buy see a drop in captured market median HHI during this period.
3. Back-to-school shopping starts earliest for clothing and office supplies retailers in the South Central region, likely tied to earlier school schedules.
But back-to-school visits surge higher for these retailers in the Northeast later in the season.
4. The share of college students among back-to-school shoppers varies by region.
In August 2024, “Collegians” made up the largest share of Target’s back-to-school shopping crowd in New England, and the smallest in the West.
5. Mother’s Day drives the biggest restaurant visit spikes in the Middle Atlantic Region, while Father’s Day sees its biggest boosts in the South Atlantic states.
Mother’s Day diners also tend to travel farther to celebrate, suggesting an extra effort to treat mom.
6. Western states proved particularly responsive to McDonald’s recent Minecraft promotion.
During the week of A Minecraft Movie’s release, the promotion drove significantly higher visit spikes in the West than in the Eastern U.S.
Retailers rely on promotional events to fuel sales – from classics like Black Friday and back-to-school sales to unique limited-time offers (LTOs) and pop-culture collaborations. Yet consumer preferences and behavior can vary significantly by region, making it critical to tailor campaigns to local markets.
This report dives into the data to reveal how consumers in 2025 are responding to major retail promotions, exploring both broad regional trends and more localized market-level nuances. Where is Black Friday most popular, and which areas see a bigger turnout on Super Saturday? Where are restaurants most packed on Mother’s Day, and where on Father’s Day? Which region kicks off back-to-school shopping – and where are August shoppers most likely to be college students? And also – which part of the country went all out on McDonald’s recent Minecraft LTO?
Read on to find out.
Promotions aimed at boosting foot traffic on key holiday season milestones like Black Friday and Super Saturday are central to retailers’ strategies across industries. The day after Thanksgiving and the Saturday before Christmas typically rank among in-store retail’s busiest days, last year generating foot traffic surges of 50.1% and 56.3%, respectively, compared to a 12-month daily average. And
But a closer look at regional data shows that these promotions land differently across the country. In the Midwest, Black Friday outperformed Super Saturday last year, fueling the nation’s biggest post-Thanksgiving retail visit spike – a testament to the milestone’s strong local appeal. Meanwhile, in the Western U.S. Black Friday trailed well behind Super Saturday, though both milestones drove smaller upticks than in other regions. And in New England and the South Central states, Super Saturday achieved its biggest impact, suggesting that last-minute holiday specials may resonate especially well in that area.
Digging deeper into major Midwestern hubs shows that even within a single region, holiday promotions can produce widely different responses.
In St. Louis, Indianapolis, and Minneapolis, for example, consumers followed the broader Midwestern pattern, flocking to stores on Black Friday exhibiting less enthusiasm for Super Saturday deals. By contrast, Chicago and Detroit saw Super Saturday edge ahead, with Chicago’s Black Friday peak falling below the nationwide average of 50.1%. examples highlight the power of local preferences to shape holiday campaign results.
Holiday promotions don’t just drive visit spikes; they also spark subtle but significant changes in the demographic profiles of brick-and-mortar shoppers, expanding many retailers’ audiences during peak periods. And these shifts, too, can vary widely across regions.
Outlet malls, department stores, and beauty & self-care chains, for instance, which typically attract higher-income consumers, tend to see slight declines in the median household incomes (HHI) of their visitor bases in December. This dip may be due to promotions drawing in more mid- and lower-income shoppers during the peak holiday season. Electronics stores and superstores, on the other hand, which generally serve a less affluent base, see modest upticks in median HHI in the lead-up to Christmas.
But once again, drilling further down into regional chain-level data reveals more nuanced regional patterns. Take Best Buy, a leading holiday season electronics destination. In some of the chain’s biggest, more affluent markets – including New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago – the big-box retailer sees small dips in median HHI during December. But in Atlanta and Houston – also relatively affluent, but slightly less so – December saw a minor HHI uptick, hinting at a stronger holiday rush from higher-income shoppers in those cities.
Back-to-school promotions also play a pivotal role in the retail calendar, with superstores, apparel chains, office supply stores and others all vying for shopper attention. And though summer markdowns drive increased foot traffic nationwide, both the timing of these shifts and the composition of the back-to-school shopping crowd differ among regions.
Analyzing weekly fluctuations in regional foot traffic to clothing and office supplies stores shows, for example, that back-to-school shopping picks up earliest in the South Central region, likely due to earlier school start dates.
But the biggest visit peaks occur in the Northeast – with clothing retailer foot traffic surging in New England in late August, and office supplies stores seeing an even bigger surge in the Middle Atlantic region in early September. Retailers and advertisers can plan their back-to-school deals around these differences, targeting promotions to local trends.
Though K-12 families drive much of the back-to-school rush, college student shoppers also play a substantial role. And here, too, their participation varies by region.
For instance, the “Collegians” segment accounted for 2.2% of Target’s shopper base nationwide over the past year – rising to 3.0% in August 2024. But regionally, the share of “Collegians” soared as high as 4.0% in New England versus just 2.2% in the West. So while retailers in New England may choose to lean into the college vibe, those in Western states may place greater emphasis on families with children.
When it comes to dining, Mother’s Day and Father’s Day are the busiest days of the year for the full-service restaurant (FSR) category, as families treat their parents to a hassle-free meal out. And eateries nationwide capitalize on this trend by offering a variety of deals and promotions that add a little extra charm (and value) to the experience.
Nationwide, Mother’s Day drives more FSR foot traffic than Father’s Day – except in parts of the Pacific Northwest, where Father’s Day traditions run especially deep. Still, the size of these holiday boosts varies substantially by region.
This year, for instance, Mother’s Day (May 11, 2025) drove the largest FSR surge in the Middle Atlantic, with the South Atlantic and Midwest not far behind. Father’s Day, by contrast, saw its biggest lift in the South Atlantic. Mother’s Day proved least resonant in the West, whereas Father’s Day had its smallest impact in New England.
Dining behavior also differs between the two occasions. Mother’s Day celebrants display a slight preference for morning FSR visits and a bigger one for afternoon visits, while Father’s Day crowds favor evenings – perhaps reflecting a preference for sports bars and later dinners with dad. Another interesting nuance: On Mother’s Day, a larger share of FSR visits originate from between 3 and 50 miles away compared to Father’s Day, suggesting that families go the extra mile – sometimes literally – to celebrate mom.
While established dates like Black Friday or Mother’s Day naturally spur promotions, brands can also craft their own moments with limited-time offers (LTOs). And much like holiday campaigns, these retailer-led events can produce varied outcomes across different regions.
Fast food restaurants, for example, have leaned heavily on limited-time offers (LTOs) and pop-culture tie-ins to fuel buzz in what remains a challenging overall market. And McDonald’s recent Minecraft promotion, launched on April 1, 2025 to coincide with the April 3 release of A Minecraft Move, shows just how impactful the practice can be.
Nationally, the Minecraft promotion (featuring offerings for both kids and adults) drove a 6.9% lift in visits during the movie’s opening week. But the impact of the promotion was far from uniform across the U.S. Many of McDonald’s Western markets – including Utah, Idaho, Nevada, California, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon – recorded visit lifts above 10.0%. Meanwhile, Kentucky saw a 2.1% dip, and several other Eastern states registered modest gains below 3.0%. The McDonald’s example illustrates the power of regional tastes to shape the success of even the most creative pop-culture collabs.
Whether it’s properly timing holiday and back-to-school discounts, recognizing where Mother’s Day or Father’s Day will resonate more, or pinpointing markets that respond best to pop-culture tie-ins, the data reveals that effective promotions depend heavily on local nuances. And by analyzing regional and DMA-level trends, retailers and advertisers can craft compelling, relevant campaigns that heighten engagement where it matters most.
