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Just as the dining space was beginning to recover from the COVID pandemic, the ongoing inflation brought a fresh set of challenges to the sector in 2022 and 2023. How did the headwinds impact Burger King, Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, Taco Bell, KFC, and other leading brands from the RBI and Yum! Portfolio? We dove into the data to find out.
Restaurant Brands International (RBI) and Yum! Brands each own three QSR banners along with one fast-casual chain. RBI owns the Burger King, Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, and Tim Hortons brands as well as fast-casual sub chain Firehouse Subs. Yum! Brands operates the KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell fast-food banners and the fast-casual The Habit Burger Grill.
Both companies’ banners saw year-over-year (YoY) growth in Q1 2023, likely aided by favorable comparisons to an Omicron-plagued Q1 2022. And although traffic dropped off as the year went on – perhaps due to consumers cutting back on dining out – the dip was subdued, with visits staying relatively close to 2022 levels.
RBI’s banners ended the year with just a 2.5% YoY dip in Q4 2023, although Firehouse Subs, Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, and Tim Hortons all saw positive visit growth for three out of four quarters of 2023.
Following three quarters of YoY visit growth for the Pizza Hut banner and for the company as a whole, Yum! Brands also began feeling the impact of the consumer spending contraction, with the company’s Q4 2023 foot traffic performance 3.7% lower, on average, than in 2022.
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The wider QSR space tends to serve trade areas composed of Census Block Groups with an overall median household income (HHI) that is lower than the median HHI nationwide ($63.2K for QSR compared with $69.5K nationwide). And the median HHI in the trade areas of Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, KFC, Burger King, Tim Hortons, and Popeyes is even lower than the median HHI in the wider QSR space.
The relatively low median HHI in the trade areas of RBI and Yum! Brands’ QSR banners means that visitors to these chains may be feeling particularly frugal, which could explain the slight dips in foot traffic towards the end of 2023.
But some of these brands are already implementing changes to woo back their budget-conscious customers. Taco Bell recently unveiled a new value menu that includes some items priced at $1.99, and several other chains in the Yum! and RBI portfolio have launched national campaigns advertising wallet-friendly promotions – which may well bring foot traffic back up in 2024.
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QSR chains seem particularly attractive to singles, with the trade area of the average QSR brand containing a larger share of one-person and non-family (roommate) households compared to the nationwide average (33.8% to 33.2%). And analyzing the household composition of the QSR banners of RBI and Yum! reveals that the trade areas of these brands tend to include an even larger share of one-person and non-family households than the wider QSR industry. (Pizza Hut is the sole exception, with one-person and non-family households making up 33.6% of households in its trade area – slightly less than the QSR industry average of 33.8%, but still more than the nationwide average of 33.2%.)
The trade areas of QSR brands also tend to include a greater share of large households (households of four or more people) compared to the percentage of 4+ person households nationwide. But Yum! And RBI banners (with the exception of Popeyes) seem to serve fewer 4+ person households compared to the QSR average (although Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, KFC, Burger King, and Tim Hortons still have more 4+ person households in the trade areas compared to the nationwide average.)
This trade area demographic data could help Yum! and RBI plan their 2024 promotions – discounts on larger orders could be particularly appealing to Popeyes diners, but may not necessarily drive demand among the visitor base of the other QSR banners. At the same time, all brands analyzed may benefit from offering value-priced individual items that can help singles living alone or with roommates budget smartly.
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With food-away-from-home prices expected to increase in 2024, chains that offer low-cost options are likely to see a resurgence – and RBI and Yum! may well benefit from consumers’ continued thriftiness.
Who wouldn’t want weekends to last seven days? That’s the thinking behind Marine Layer’s eco-friendly and “absurdly soft” tees. This San Francisco-based company, founded in 2009, has its beginnings in a shirt thrown away by a girlfriend. One man’s trash is another man’s treasure, and from that action sprouted the seeds for founder Mike Natenshon as he set on his quest to create the ultimate soft-on-day-1 shirt. Forty-five stores later, Marine Layer has spread across the nation, timed perfectly with our desire for coziness after extended time at home made comfy clothing a must.
One of the higher-trafficked outdoor Marine Layer locations is at Ponce City Market in Atlanta. This shopping center boasts other in-demand brands like Lululemon, Reformation, and Buck Mason. Another popular location resides at 12South, a Nashville neighborhood spanning a half mile that includes walkable local businesses, bars, and bakeries. White Bison Coffee and Five Daughters Bakery are places to stop in for a bite while shopping. And in Boulder, Pearl St is another pedestrian-friendly venue for shoppers.
It’s clear that certain segments are attracted to Marine Layer’s offer - most notably Young Professionals in Atlanta and Boulder, who make up a quarter of the customers, as well as Ultra Wealthy Families across the board, particularly in Nashville where they comprise a fifth. There are a few clientele differences, such as the fact that Marine Layer draws Urban Low Income in Atlanta and more Sunset Boomers in Boulder.
Looking at the potential market for these three areas, we see some interesting patterns arise via Spatial.ai Followgraph. For instance, all three markets overindex in following the musical Hamilton, fitness brand Peloton, outdoor sporting goods store REI, and the confection Moon Pie. Regarding fashion brands, Tory Burch, J. Crew, Lululemon, Vineyard Vines, and Patagonia are popular too.
Faherty is a brand that has been around for 10 years but that we’ve seen accelerating its physical store footprint in the last few years. Evoking chill surf trips, family bonfires, and hikes in the great outdoors, this American brand invites you to cozy up in its sweaters, spend a Saturday riding the waves, or just all-out enjoy family time and making memories. Its locations span from east coast to west coast, with popular locations in Panama City Beach, New York City, Austin, Manhattan Beach, among others.
The appeal of this brand is such that it finds itself on the beach, in urban high streets, and suburban locations, indicating that it’s really more about the vibe. Not only that, the segments are quite varied in terms of who is shopping at Faherty (using PersonaLive segments). In Panama City Beach, we see largely Ultra Wealthy Families, Sunset Boomers, and Young Professionals. Meanwhile, in SoHo, Educated Urbanites and Young Urban Singles make up the lion’s share of the trade area. The Austin shopper profile is more similar to the Panama City Beach one, with the addition of Educated Urbanites as well. This intergenerational appeal is possibly rooted in the ethos of the brand with its focus on family, friends, and enjoying life’s moments.
One thing that these shoppers do have in common? High household incomes. Most of these shoppers come from households earning $150K+, with particularly high earners hailing from Greenwich, CT.
While the customers from Florida, New York, and Texas are geographically dispersed, they do share some commonalities: an above average propensity to be bubbly drinkers and wine drinkers, clearly in line with the brand’s positioning of celebratory moments. Customers in these three markets also consider themselves “Pilates People”, “Joggers,” and “Fitness Fans.” You will find Faherty devotees from all three of these markets at the spa, at the museum, or enjoying book clubs. And largely in keeping with Faherty’s sustainability promise, many of their customers consider themselves Environmental Activists.
In December 2023, Placer.ai released the white paper: The Retail Opportunity of Stadiums. Below is a taste of our findings. To read more data-driven consumer research, visit our resource library.
While every stadium provides a similar core of traditional game day eats, each venue also offers a unique set of dining options, both on- and off-premise. The visitor bases of the various venues also exhibit unique dining tastes – a reminder that no customer or fan base is alike. Aligning on- or off-site dining options with offerings that align with a given customer base’s preferences can improve overall visitor satisfaction and boost revenues.
The chart below shows the share of visitors coming to a stadium from a dining venue (on the x-axis) or going to a dining venue after visiting the stadium (on the y-axis). The data reveals a correlation between pre-stadium dining and post-stadium dining – stadiums where many guests visit dining venues before the stadium also tend to have a large share of guests going to dining venues after the event. For example, the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, saw large shares of visitors grabbing a bite to eat on their journey to or from the stadium, while the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland saw low rates of pre- and post stadium dining engagement.
These trends present opportunities for both local businesses and stadium stakeholders. For example, venues with high dining engagement can explore partnerships with local restaurants, while those with lower rates can build out their in-house dining options for hungry sports fans.
Stadiums looking to enhance their food offerings – or local entrepreneurs thinking of opening a restaurant near a stadium – can also get inspired by stadium visitors’ dining preferences. For example, psychographic data taken from the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals that visitors to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey have a much stronger preference for Asian cuisine compared to New Jersey residents overall. With that knowledge, the stadium can enhance the visitor experience by expanding its Asian food offerings.
On the other hand, MetLife Stadium goers seem much less partial to Brewery fare than average New Jerseyans, so the stadium operators and restaurateurs may want to avoid offering too many Brewery-themed dining options. Stadium stakeholders can reserve the craft beers for Caesars Stadium, M&T Bank Stadium, and Soldier Field Stadiums, where visitors seem to enjoy artisanal brews more than the average resident in Louisiana, Maryland, and Illinois, respectively.
Sports leagues like the NBA, NFL, and MLB boast billion-dollar revenues – and the venues where these games unfold hold significant commercial potential in their own rights. Stadium operators, restaurateurs, and other stakeholders can leverage location intelligence and analyze visitor behavior outside the stadiums to understand visit patterns and consumer preferences during games and in the off-season.
Read the full report here to discover more stadium insights. For more data-driven consumer research, visit our resource library.
Urban Outfitters, Inc., operates several apparel banners, including Anthropologie and the eponymous Urban Outfitters. Both brands sell bohemian-style women’s apparel and home goods, although Urban Outfitters’ selection is slightly more eclectic and also includes menswear. Location intelligence indicates that both brands have stores in areas that have the potential to attract similar types of shoppers – but in practice, the two chains’ audiences look rather different.
To better understand the contrast between the two chains, we dove into the demographic and psychographic data of Urban Outfitters’ and Anthropologie’s trade areas.
Location analytics can be used to analyze a chain’s area through two different methods. The potential market trade area focuses on the demographic and psychographic makeup of the Census Block Groups (CBGs) making up the trade area, with each CBG weighted according to the population size of that CBG. The captured market trade area, on the other hand, weighs the CBGs within the trade area according to the number of visits received by the chain from each CBG. So while a potential market analysis can show the types of visitors that a chain can reach on the basis of the geographic location of the chain’s venues, the captured market reveals the audience segments within the potential trade area that actually visit the chain in practice.
For example, the median HHI for both Anthropologie and Urban Outfitters is higher in the captured market than in the potential market. This means that both brands attract visits from the higher-income households within their potential trade area.
The data also indicates that both chains have a relatively similar potential market median HHI, so both chains can reach customers with relatively similar income levels, given their store fleet configuration: Anthropologie’s potential market median HHI is only 5.5% higher than Urban Outfitters’ ($84.7K vs. $80.3K). But in practice, Anthropologie visitors tend to come from much more affluent households than Urban Outfitters visitors, with Anthropologie’s captured market median HHI 17.3% higher than Urban Outfitters’ ($103.6K vs. $88.3K).
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Looking at the household types in Anthropologie and Urban Outfitters’ potential markets reinforces how the two chains have the potential to draw a relatively similar visitor base. Anthropologie’s and Urban Outfitters’ potential trade areas have 38.5% and 38.8% of one-person and non-family (i.e. roommate) households, respectively, and 26.6% and 26.5% of households with children.
In practice, however, Anthropologie tends to attract more households than Urban Outfitters from family-friendly neighborhoods – the share of households with children in its captured market stands at 26.3%, compared with 23.6% for Urban Outfitters’ captured market. Meanwhile, Urban Outfitters seems to be more popular among visitors from one-person and non-family households, with 43.5% of its captured market belonging to this segment, compared to 38.5% of Anthropologie’s captured market.
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Analyzing the captured and potential markets of Anthropologie and Urban Outfitters from a psychographic perspective also reveals differences between the two brands that align with the demographic profiles in the chains’ trade areas. Anthropologie tends to attract more suburban visitors – including shoppers belonging to Spatial.ai PersonaLive’s “Booming with Confidence” segment. Meanwhile, Urban Outfitters draws more Singles & Starters than Anthropologie in both its captured and potential trade area.
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The differences between the makeup of Athropologie’s and Urban Outfitters’ potential and captured market indicate that a chain’s site selection strategy is not the only factor impacting who visits the chain’s stores in practice.
Both Anthropologie and Urban Outfitters have relatively similar psychographics and demographics in their potential trade areas, meaning that – based solely on the location of their stores – both brands’ stores have the potential to reach the same types of shoppers. But the demographics and psychographics in the captured markets are distinct, indicating that even stores carrying similar sorts of products and located in similar areas can use contrasting branding, price-points, and other factors to draw in the desired target audience.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
Hot on the heels of the burrito’s emergence as America’s favorite dish in 2022 – edging out even the iconic cheeseburger – spicy potato tacos rocked Grubhub’s list of 2023’s top five spicy food orders.
So with the new year upon us, we dove into the data to check in with three steadily-expanding taco chains that are likely to continue making waves this year: Bartaco, Condado Tacos, and El Vaquero. Each of the three chains fills a somewhat different niche, and each of them is growing – showing that despite the challenges facing the restaurant industry, there’s a hot market for taco chains that hit the sweet spot with the right food and ambiance.
Bartaco, the upscale eatery known for its beach-like vibe, specialty cocktails, and eclectic street food menu, is a taco restaurant with a twist. The diverse menu includes everything from falafel tacos to glazed pork belly rice bowls. And while guac and chips are on offer, hungry diners can also indulge in kale caesar salad or Korean-style kimchi. Over the past several years, Bartaco has expanded its fleet – and the restaurant now boasts some 29 locations across 12 states (and Washington, D.C).
Condado Tacos is another popular restaurant that has grown its footprint in recent years. The “come as you are” casual-dining chain known for its funky art decor now features some 49 locations across 10 states – 20 of them in Ohio. And with plans to open 90-100 restaurants by 2026, the chain is on a roll. Customers can build their own tacos with fillings like Thai Chili Tofu or Tequila-Lime Steak, or choose one of the menu’s tempting suggestions. And like Bartaco, Condado Tacos offers a variety of cocktails – including seasonal choices like the Harvest Pear Marg.
And location intelligence shows that the expansion of both chains is meeting growing demand. Visits to Bartaco and Condado Tacos have risen steadily over the past two years, reaching a respective 52.2% and 52.9% growth in Q4 2023 relative to Q1 2022.
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Ohio is also home to El Vaquero – a Mexican chain with 18 locations in the Buckeye State and two more in Michigan. El Vaquero, which has also expanded over the past several years, saw foot traffic rise 4.8% in Q4 2023 compared to the equivalent period of 2022. And with a menu that includes everything from nachos to huevos con chorizo, it’s no wonder the chain has emerged as a local favorite.
Like Bartaco and Condado Tacos, El Vaquero has a rich cocktail menu, as well as a varied selection of wines and beers. And while the chain’s offerings certainly draw crowds throughout the year, El Vaquero really goes crazy on Cinco de Mayo, the May 5th commemoration of Mexico's victory over Napoleon in 1862. El Vaquero marks the occasion with a five-day special menu and an all-day happy hour on Cinco de Mayo itself. And on May 5th, 2023, El Vaquero experienced its busiest day of the year by far, drawing a remarkable 200.2% more visitors than it did, on average, during April and May 2023.
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Drilling down into the data for Bartaco, Condado Tacos, and El Vaquero shows that despite their differences, the three chains experience similar hourly visitation patterns. All three are busiest in the evenings – but while El Vaquero and Condado Tacos peak between 6:00 PM and 8:00 PM, Bartaco peaks somewhat later, between 7:00 PM and 9:00 PM. Bartaco also stays busier into the 9:00 PM – 10:00 PM time slot.
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Bartaco’s, Condado Tacos’, and El Vaquero’s evening draw may be due, in part, to the special appeal they hold for singles: The captured markets of all three chains feature significant shares of one-person households – and in the case of Bartaco and Condado Tacos, smaller concentrations of families with children. (For El Vaquero, the proportion of households with children is on par with that of single-person households). Of the three, the more upscale Bartaco boasts the highest share of single-person households – and the lowest share of parental ones – perhaps explaining its later visit peak and greater late-night engagement.
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Mexican food has arisen as a preferred cuisine for many consumers. And even in today’s challenging economic environment, brands that can offer a winning combination of good food, nice cocktails, and a welcoming atmosphere are poised to thrive. How will Bartaco, Condado Tacos, and El Vaquero continue to fare in the new year? And what lies in store for the wider taco restaurant space in the months to come?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven dining analyses to find out.
Five metros from across the United States stand out for consumer momentum going into 2026: Salt Lake City (UT), Reno (NV), Indianapolis (IN), Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (FL), and Raleigh-Durham (NC). All five metro areas saw their populations increase by more than the average U.S. metro between 2023 and 2024, and year-over-year (YoY) retail and dining traffic trends outpaced the nationwide average.
Utah is one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S. The state’s population has grown steadily for more than two decades with unemployment remaining consistently below the nationwide average, with one of the youngest workforces in the country. According to some analysts, the median household income in Utah, when adjusted for cost of living, is the highest in the nation.
All of this positions Salt Lake City – the state’s capital – as a particularly attractive market heading into 2026. Location analytics show year-over-year increases in foot traffic across many neighborhoods, from established retail hubs like Sugar House and Downtown SLC to the more mixed-use Central City and primarily residential areas such as The Avenues and East Bench. The city also serves as a gateway to a diverse mix of audiences, attracting younger residents and commuters as well as affluent families who come into the city to shop, dine, and enjoy local attractions.
Salt Lake City’s diversity in age and household composition as well as Utah's strong homeownership culture – even among younger cohorts – creates opportunities for retail and dining chains across categories. Home-forward concepts are particularly poised to outperform, as shown by recent location analytics. Traffic to furniture & home furnishing chains increased 7.4% YoY in the Salt Lake City DMA compared to a 2.5% increase nationwide, and grocery stores and home improvement retailers outperformed in the market as well. These trends point to a solid market for retailers tied to home life – from furniture and décor to everyday grocery needs –driven not only by steady population growth and household spending, but also by a local culture that places strong emphasis on family and the home.
While Salt Lake City continues to build on its strong foundation, another Western city is quietly gaining momentum. Reno, Nevada, which is often viewed as a regional gaming-town, is increasingly emerging as a dynamic travel destination in its own right.
In 2024 Washoe County (including the city of Reno) welcomed approximately 3.8 million visitors whose spending of about $3.4 billion generated a total economic impact of $5.2 billion. This growth signals a robust visitor-economy that supports roughly 43,800 jobs and generates over $420 million in state and local tax revenue.
What makes this particularly compelling is that while Las Vegas, Nevada is facing mounting pressures from increasing costs, the Reno-Tahoe region is showing stronger resilience thanks in part to a drive-market model and diversified appeal. Analyzing the traffic data shows that visits from non-residents, and non-employees to downtown Reno have increased YoY for the past three years. And though Reno may be thought of as a vacation spot for older Gen X and Baby Boomer vacationers, the data also indicates that Singles & Starters –"young singles starting out and some starter families living a city lifestyle" – make up an increasingly large share of Reno's visitor base.
This generational diversification carries important implications for both retail and real estate investment. As younger visitors drive up spending in food, entertainment, and shopping centers, the market is poised for renewed urban energy – fueling redevelopment across downtown corridors and mixed-use projects. With strategic public–private investments and an expanding visitor economy, Reno stands out as a market to watch in 2026, combining strong fundamentals with emerging demographic momentum.
The Midwest also contains several metro areas on the rise. Large-scale manufacturing projects like Intel’s $20 billion chip plants and Honda and LG Energy Solution’s EV battery facility are spurring housing and retail expansion around Columbus, Ohio. Kansas City, Missouri, is benefiting from logistics growth and projected tourism growth linked to its role as a FIFA World Cup 2026 host city. And Madison, Wisconsin, is seeing steady consumer growth is supported by its diverse tech and biotech economy.
But Indianapolis, Indiana tops the charts in terms of YoY overall retail visit growth between May and October 2025 (+4.3%, see first chart). And much of the consumer traffic in the Indianapolis DMA consists of suburban and rural households – precisely the segments that many retailers are now trying to woo.
Family-friendly retailers and dining chains are particularly well positioned to thrive in Indiana heading into 2026. Indianapolis has some of the best job prospects and most affordable home prices in the country – and its favorable salary to cost of living ratio likely allows many families to have leftover income left over for discretionary spending.
Recent data shows that a range of family-oriented brands – from Chili’s and Marshall’s to Kroger – have outperformed in Indianapolis over the past six months. The city’s growing middle-income population and its suburban, family-focused consumer base appear to be fueling stronger in-person spending, particularly at convenient, affordable, and community-oriented retail and dining destinations.
Moving east to North Carolina brings several additional growing metros into focus, including Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, and Charlotte. But Raleigh rises above the pack with its powerful combination of job growth, steady in-migration, and a well-balanced, diversified economy.
All this is leading to YoY increases in total traffic within the Raleigh-Durham, NC DMA, driven in part by major firms – including entrants in finance and life-sciences – continuing to expand operations in the area. The city of Raleigh also has relatively low median age and relatively high median household income. This combination of robust job creation, wage gains, and a growing pool of young, high-spending residents positions Raleigh as one of the most dynamic consumer markets in the Southeast heading into 2026.
Raleigh's consumer growth potential is particularly stark when looking at performance of major mixed-use developments across the region. Foot traffic at leading projects such as Smoky Hollow, the Main District at North Hills Street, and Fenton in Cary has climbed sharply.
The data also shows that these destinations attract a disproportionately high share of wealthy singles and one-person households – a demographic with strong discretionary spending power. Together, these trends point to a deepening base of urban, high-income consumers fueling growth in dining, retail, and entertainment – making Raleigh one of the country's most dynamic and opportunity-rich metro areas heading into 2026.
In the Southeast, Tampa is one of the nation’s standout metro areas heading into 2026. Strong fundamentals – such as no state income tax and expanding employment in sectors like technology, healthcare, and logistics – have attracted a significant influx of Gen Z and millennial residents. And although in-migration is beginning to slow somewhat, the city's expanding economy and youthful talent base continue to fuel growth across housing, retail, and dining.
And as more companies require employees to spend additional days in the office, YoY commuter traffic has increased across Tampa’s major cities. Leisure visits from non-residents are also on the rise, suggesting that retailers and dining chains seeking to capture this expanding market could benefit from growing their presence throughout the Tampa metro area.
Rising traffic across Tampa’s major urban areas appears to be translating into stronger dining activity as well. Over the past six months, average YoY visits to Tampa area full-service restaurants, coffee shops, and fast-casual chains have all exceeded the national average, which may reflect a broader acceleration in both local workforce and leisure-visitor demand.
1. Retail is deeply divided. Visits to value and luxury apparel segments grew YoY in 2025 while traffic to mid-tier retailers flagged.
2. Upscale dining momentum reflects similar bifurcation. More resilient, affluent consumers are bolstering fine-dining traffic.
3. Authenticity is key. Brands successfully executing on a clear sense of purpose – from community-driven grocers to bookstores – are driving consistent visit growth.
4. Online and offline retail are converging into a seamless ecosystem. As consumers seek online value and in-person convenience, AI fulfillment, dark stores, and local pickup are accelerating.
5. Digitally native brands expanding into physical retail are redefining omnichannel. These chains provide a blueprint for merging digital efficiency with personalized in-store experiences.
6. Traditionally urban brands are shifting to suburbia to capture new audiences. With consumers rooted in hybrid lifestyles and growing suburban demand, chains that adapt their footprints drive fresh traffic.
7. Expansion into college markets and celebrity pop-ups are helping retailers and malls connect with younger consumers. Brands that grew their footprints in college towns or on campuses increased their Gen Z traffic, as did malls that hosted celebrity or influencer activations.
Retail and dining faced another complex year in 2025. Persistent economic headwinds and uncertainty surrounding tariffs intensified consumers’ focus on value, even as affluent shoppers continued to indulge in luxury brands and upscale dining experiences.
Yet the year also revealed behavioral shifts that extended beyond price sensitivity. Shoppers increasingly prioritized brands that convey authenticity and a clear sense of purpose – those that deliver value not only through price, but through omnichannel convenience, product quality, and brand ethos.
For their part, retailers and malls continued to evolve, adopting strategies to capture both the expanding suburban market and a rising generation of younger consumers emerging as a defining force in retail.
How have these trends evolved, and how will they shape the retail landscape in 2026? We dove into the data to find out.
The first three quarters of 2025 underscored a widening divide in the apparel sector, with strength at both ends of the price and income spectrums.
Off-price retailers and thrift stores, which draw shoppers from lower- and middle-income trade areas, gained significant ground – reflecting consumers’ ongoing search for value and treasure-hunt experiences that feel both economical and rewarding. At the same time, luxury maintained modest growth, showing that high-income shoppers remain resilient and willing to spend on premium experiences. Meanwhile, traditional apparel and mid-tier department stores continued to see visit declines, signaling further pressure on the retail middle. Retailers such as Target and Kohl’s, traditional staples of this middle segment, are contending with the challenge of defining their identity to consumers in a market increasingly split between value and luxury.
Looking ahead to 2026, mid-tier retailers will need to navigate a complex and polarized landscape. Without the clear positioning enjoyed by value and luxury players, success will require sharper differentiation and disciplined execution. But though the middle remains a tough place to compete, it still holds potential: Brands that can redefine relevance – something many of these same chains achieved just a few years ago – stand to capture consumers with spending power.
A similar bifurcation dynamic is also unfolding in the dining sector.
Upscale full-service restaurants (FSRs) are outperforming their casual dining counterparts, as higher-income consumers – and those dining out for special occasions – seek elevated experiences at fine-dining chains.
At the same time, more cost-conscious diners are trading down from casual dining FSRs to fast-casual chains, which continue to outperform the casual dining segment. Fast-casual brands are also benefiting from trading up within the limited-service segment, as consumers who choose to eat out – rather than eat at home or grab a lower-cost prepared meal at a c-store or grocery – opt for more experiences that feel more premium yet remain accessible.
Across both retail and dining, bifurcation doesn’t tell the whole story. Even as spending concentrates at the high and low ends of the market, a growing number of brands are succeeding by delivering an experience that feels intentional, distinctive, and true to their identity. These concepts share a clear raison d’être – a sense of purpose that resonates with consumers – as well as successful execution. The data shows that brands providing this kind of “on-point” experience are driving consistent visit growth in 2025, signaling that authenticity may be important retail currency in 2026.
Trader Joe’s sustained momentum reflects its ability to make shopping feel like discovery. The chain’s locally-inspired assortments, roughly 80% private-label mix, and steady rotation of seasonal products keep visits fresh and engagement high.
Sprouts, for its part, continues to benefit from a sharpened identity centered on freshness, sustainability, and health. Its smaller-format stores, curated product mix, and messaging around healthy living have helped it build a loyal base of wellness‐oriented shoppers.
Meanwhile, Barnes & Noble’s transformation offers a compelling case study in the power of experience. Its strategy of empowering local managers to curate store selections and host community events has turned stores into cultural touchpoints – driving increased visits and dwell times.
All three brands derive their strength from their clarity of purpose – illustrating how authenticity and intentionality are becoming meaningful factors shaping consumer engagement.
Authenticity isn’t limited to national names. Regional players such as H-E-B and In-N-Out Burger demonstrate how deeply ingrained local identity can translate into sustained growth.
H-E-B’s community-driven ethos, local sourcing, and operational excellence have built trust across Texas markets, helping it remain one of the country’s most beloved grocery chains, with high rates of shoppers visiting multiple times a month. And in the quick-service category, California-native In-N-Out Burger stands out for its quality, nostalgia, and mystique, as the chain continues to attract visitation trends that exceed national QSR benchmarks.
These brands demonstrate that authenticity can have a local element. Their success reflects not just product strength or efficiency, but a deeper connection to the communities they serve.
While regional and experience-driven brands continue to build deep consumer connections, the broader retail landscape is also being reshaped by operational innovation. As technology and infrastructure improve, retailers are finding new ways to merge digital efficiency with convenient physical touchpoints.
E-commerce growth and in-store activity are increasingly interconnected. Visits to ecommerce distribution centers* climbed steadily between October 2021 and September 2025, while the share of short, under-10-minute trips to big-box chains Target, Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club also increased. Together, these patterns suggest that while online shopping continues to expand, consumers remain highly engaged with physical locations through buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) and same-day fulfillment channels – combining the value of online deals with the convenience of quick, local pickup.
This trend also reflects ongoing advancements in AI-driven fulfillment and Walmart’s testing of dark stores – retail spaces converted into local fulfillment hubs that accelerate delivery and enable quick customer pickup. These innovations are shortening fulfillment windows while optimizing store networks for hybrid demand.
As retailers continue to blur the boundaries between digital and physical commerce in 2026, expect them to become increasingly complementary parts of a single, omnichannel ecosystem.
*The Placer.ai E-commerce Distribution Center Index measures foot traffic across more than 400 distribution centers nationwide, including facilities operated by leading retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target. Designed as a barometer for U.S. e-commerce activity, the index captures two key audiences: employees, estimated through dwell-time patterns, and visitors, who often represent logistics partners delivering raw materials, moving in-process goods, or collecting finished products.
The resurgence of digitally native brands embracing physical retail underscores how online and offline strategies are converging into an integrated model, combining digital efficiency with the benefits of a physical presence.
Framebridge, a DTC custom framing brand, offers a clear example of this trend. As the brand has expanded its footprint, the average number of monthly visits to each of its locations rose sharply throughout 2025.
Framebridge’s success lies in its well-executed omnichannel model. Customers can place orders online or in store, with the option to ship directly to their homes or pick up in person.
But for Framebridge, physical locations aren’t just about convenience. Art and memories are often one of a kind, so having knowledgeable staff in store and the opportunity to engage with materials firsthand transforms a transaction into a personalized, consultative experience.
Framebridge exemplifies how digitally native brands are merging the ease of online shopping with physical spaces that provide a personal touch. And more digitally native brands, like Gymshark, are looking to bring their business offline with the hope of adding value for consumers.
As retailers advance their omnichannel strategies, another enduring shift is reshaping the retail map post-pandemic – the continued rise of suburban traffic. Brands that entered the pandemic with strong suburban footprints were among the first to benefit as in-person activity rebounded, while urban-focused chains that expanded outward have met migrating consumers and captured new audiences anchored in hybrid lifestyles and local shopping routines.
Large-format and drive-thru focused brands like Costco, Cava, and Dutch Bros. entered the pandemic era from a position of strength as they are traditionally situated in suburban and exurban areas. As consumers spent more time close to home and away from urban centers, these chains captured heightened local demand and saw visits rebound rapidly once in-person shopping resumed.
And as the pandemic reshaped consumer traffic patterns, brands like Shake Shack and Chipotle quickly recognized emerging opportunities in suburban markets and adjusted their strategies to capture this shifting demand. For Shake Shack – a brand once defined by its urban storefronts – the shift toward suburban drive-thrus and stand-alone locations represented a significant pivot. Chipotle followed a similar path, accelerating its suburban expansion through the rollout of “Chipotlane” drive-thru lanes.
Arriving somewhat later to the suburban landscape, sweetgreen, once synonymous with its urban footprint, opened its first drive-thru in 2022, and by 2024 had made suburban markets a core pillar of its growth strategy.
These real estate moves positioned all three brands to capture demand from remote and hybrid workers, helping sustain visit growth well above pre-pandemic baselines.
As suburban demand continues to grow, the suburbs will likely remain a critical growth frontier for many brands in the year ahead.
Investment in suburban markets underscores how changing market conditions and strategy adaptation can allow brands to meet consumers where they are. And a parallel trend is unfolding in college towns and youth-dense trade areas, where brands are channeling investment to capture rising Gen Z spending power.
Expansion in college-anchored markets, paired with celebrity and influencer-driven pop-ups, is helping retailers build cultural relevance and increase engagement with this emerging consumer base.
The graph below underscores how targeted expansion into college-anchored markets can meaningfully shift audience composition. Over the last several years, many brands have expanded their near-campus footprints – and in turn, attracted a higher share of the Spatial.ai:PersonaLive “Young Urban Singles” segment, one highly aligned with Gen Z consumers.
CAVA’s rapid unit growth, including openings near major universities and in college towns, helped the brand increase its share of “Young Urban Singles” within its captured trade areas between October 2018-September 2019 and October 2024-September 2025. Meanwhile, Panda Express and Raising Cane's, which already had relatively large shares of the segment six years ago, have also invested in college-adjacent locations, lifting their “Young Urban Singles” audience share.
Even legacy mass retailer Target benefited from small-format and large store expansions near universities – growing its captured market share of “Young Urban Singles”.
These shifts suggest that college towns will continue to be strategic growth markets, including for luxury brands like Hermès. By making inroads in college towns and with Gen Z shoppers, brands can strengthen loyalty early and build durable market share that remains as these young adults move on from campus life.
As Gen Z’s influence expands beyond campus borders, retail engagement is increasingly driven by cultural moments that resonate with this cohort. And malls are finding that temporary pop-ups including influencer collaborations and celebrity-led activations can attract these young consumers.
At The Grove, the Pandora pop-up with brand ambassador girl-group Katseye in October 2024 led to a modest but significant increase in the Gen Z-dominant “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” segments within the mall’s captured trade area during the first week of the activation – compared to the average for the last twelve months.
Similarly, at Westfield Century City, the Taylor Swift x TikTok activation from October 3rd-9th, 2025 – which allowed fans to immerse themselves in the sets from the viral “The Fate of Ophelia” music video boosted the shares of “Young Urban Singles” and Young Professionals”, underscoring the star power of everything Taylor Swift.
And at American Dream, the pattern extended beyond younger audiences. On September 5th and 6th, 2025, Ninja Kidz attended the grand opening of their Action Park while Salish Matters made an appearance at the mall on September 6th for her skincare pop-up – which drew such large crowds that it had to be shut down. During these two event days, the mall’s shares of both “Young Professionals” and “Ultra-Wealthy Families” increased substantially, highlighting that pop-up events can draw young and affluent family audiences.
Together, these examples reinforce that, in 2026, the integration of short-term pop-ups will continue to be a strategy for malls and individual brands to gain relevance for key demographic segments.
2025 reinforced that retail remains as dynamic as ever. Value continues to anchor decisions, but consumers are redefining what value means – blending price sensitivity with expectations for authenticity. And in the current retail landscape, online and physical retail are growing more interconnected as consumers demand convenience and experience.
In 2026, adaptability will be retailers’ greatest competitive edge. The next era of retail will belong to brands that can continue to refine their operating strategy – while staying true to a clear brand identity.
1) Retail foot traffic faces lingering pressure – making promotions more critical than ever. Financial uncertainty, tariffs, and inflation continue to weigh on discretionary spending, making well-timed, targeted holiday promotions essential to reignite demand and drive in-store traffic.
2) The retail divide appears set to widen this holiday season – Luxury and off-price apparel are both outpacing overall retail, reflecting a deepening bifurcation of consumer behavior. And this December, the affluence gap between the two categories is expected to expand further, underscoring opportunities to engage both premium and value-focused shoppers across segments.
3) Despite slower overall performance, beauty and electronics have performed well during recent retail milestones. To make the most of this momentum, advertisers should align campaigns with shifting holiday audiences – electronics toward married homeowners and beauty toward affluent suburban families.
4) Early Promotions Could Lift In-Store Traffic – Last year, early holiday campaigns helped offset a shorter shopping season and sustain strong results. With another condensed window and continued shipping disruptions, retailers who start early and emphasize in-store availability will be best positioned to capture additional visits and outperform 2024’s results.
The holiday season is fast approaching, but this year’s backdrop looks especially complex. Consumers are navigating heightened financial uncertainty, with tariffs driving up prices and disrupting supply, while inflation continues to weigh on discretionary spending.
For retailers and advertisers, the stakes are high. The holiday period remains a critical window for promotional engagement, and success will depend on understanding consumer behavior and crafting promotions that are timed, targeted, and designed to meet shoppers where they are.
We turned to foot traffic data to uncover the key trends shaping this season’s retail environment, and to identify promotional strategies likely to succeed.
Consumer activity appeared strong in most of early 2025 – except in February, when extreme weather and leap-year comparisons drove sharp year-over-year (YoY) declines. But foot traffic slowed this summer, highlighting the toll of lingering financial uncertainty and strain.
For advertisers, this underscores how pivotal seasonal promotions will be in reigniting demand. With many consumers cutting back on discretionary spending, well-timed and well-targeted campaigns will be essential to encourage shoppers to spend more freely during the holidays. These promotions don’t have to rely solely on price cuts — pop-culture collaborations and other creative product launches have also proven highly effective in driving traffic this year.
> Financial uncertainty and tighter household budgets are weighing on retail foot traffic this year – making effective holiday promotions more critical than ever.
Still, not all retail categories have been equally affected by broader economic headwinds. Some segments have experienced softer demand, signaling where advertisers may need to take a more measured, efficiency-focused approach. Others, however, have shown notable resilience – offering opportunities to double down on creative promotions that deepen engagement during the holidays.
One such segment is home furnishings, which has seen YoY traffic gains over the past 12 months, driven by the strong performance of discount chains as shoppers favor accessible décor updates over large-scale renovations. Strategic campaigns highlighting affordable refreshes and quick “holiday-ready” makeovers could give the category an additional lift in Q4, as households look to update their spaces in preparation for hosting family and friends.
But the biggest gains have been in the apparel category, where a bifurcation trend has emerged, boosting visits at both luxury and off-price retailers. The success of both segments underscores promotional strategies that can amplify momentum – steep-value discounts on one end of the spectrum, and exclusivity and quality on the other. Advertisers across retail segments can adapt this dual approach to engage both budget-driven and premium audiences effectively.
And demographic data reveals just how deeply entrenched this bifurcation has become – especially during the holiday season.
The chart below examines monthly changes in the median household incomes (HHIs) of luxury and off-price retailers’ captured markets since January 2023. Even small shifts in HHI across major retail categories can signal meaningful changes in audience composition – and these patterns tell a clear story.
In luxury apparel, where the median HHI is well above the national average of $79.6K, visitor income follows a distinct seasonal rhythm. During the early holiday shopping period, HHI remains lower in October and dips slightly in November as middle-income shoppers take advantage of early promotions to snag products that may be out of reach the rest of the year. It then rises in December as affluent consumers return to purchase gifts. Notably, luxury HHI has trended upward since 2023 – with each holiday peak higher than the last – suggesting that this December’s visitor base will be even more affluent than last year.
For advertisers, this means late-season campaigns should prioritize prestige audiences while still engaging aspirational shoppers during early holiday promotions like Black Friday.
In the off-price apparel segment, on the other hand, median HHI typically declines during the holidays – especially in December – indicating an influx of more price-sensitive shoppers. And over time, this visitor base has become even more value-driven, reinforcing the importance of promotional messaging that emphasizes unbeatable deals and savings.
Together, these patterns once again highlight the growing need for tailored strategies: premium experiences for high earners and sharp value propositions for cost-conscious consumers – a lesson that may extend well beyond these categories.
>The retail divide is expected to deepen further in December 2025, with off-price retailers drawing more value-driven shoppers and luxury brands attracting increasingly affluent consumers.
In a challenging economic environment, one might expect promotions around key retail milestones to prompt consumers to deviate from their usual habits, experimenting with new brands or categories. Yet the data shows that, for the most part, shoppers instead deepened their engagement with the retailers they already patronize – utilizing holiday promotions to buy the same products at better prices.
The graph below shows that during recent shopping milestones, the off-price and luxury categories both stood out in YoY performance – reflecting the strong momentum sustained by both segments over the past twelve months.
Still, the graph above also highlights two additional segments potentially poised for holiday success: beauty & self care and electronics.
Despite slower traffic over the past year, beauty retailers saw notable spikes around key recent promotional moments – including Black Friday, Mother’s Day, and Memorial Day. And although electronics retailers continued to face headwinds as consumers delayed big-ticket purchases – including during last year’s Black Friday – more recent milestones have seen traffic stabilize or even increase YoY.
This indicates that the right promotional environment can still effectively drive engagement in these discretionary categories, and that deal-driven behavior is likely to remain a defining theme this holiday season. In addition, as the replacement cycle begins for major electronics first purchased during the pandemic, shoppers may be especially willing to upgrade to a new TV or laptop if the right offer comes along.
But to make the most of the opportunity presented by Q4, advertisers and retailers in the beauty and electronics spaces should pay close attention to the shifting demographics of their in-store audiences during the holiday season.
For electronics retailers, married couples and homeowners become increasingly important during the peak holiday shopping period. Their share in the category’s captured market rises consistently each December, indicating that campaigns emphasizing household upgrades, family entertainment, and quality-of-life improvements may resonate most effectively in late Q4.
In contrast, beauty retailers – typically buoyed by young professionals – see their audience composition shift towards suburbia during the holidays. In December, the share of wealthy suburban families in beauty retailers’ captured markets grows meaningfully, while the share of young professionals declines. Advertisers can capitalize by highlighting premium bundles, limited-edition sets, and gifting options that speak directly to these households’ desire for premium, family-oriented products.
> Off-price and luxury retailers maintained strong performance during major retail milestones, but beauty and electronics stand out as rising opportunities for the 2025 holiday season.
> As holiday demographics shift during the holiday season – with electronics drawing more married homeowners and beauty attracting wealthier suburban families – campaigns that reflect these audiences’ lifestyles and priorities will resonate most.
Timing is also a decisive factor in retailer and advertiser success during the holiday season.
Traditionally, the “core” holiday retail period begins with Black Friday and continues until Christmas Eve. But in 2024, there was one fewer week between these two milestones compared to the previous year. And to compensate, many retailers launched an “early” holiday season, rolling out promotions in October and early November to maximize consumer engagement.
As the graph below shows, the shorter “core” season of 2024 unsurprisingly drew less in-store traffic across retail categories than the longer period the year before. Yet by embracing early promotions, retailers offset much of this shortfall, leading to overall holiday season results that, in many cases, matched or even exceeded 2023’s performance.
Looking ahead, 2025 once again brings a compressed “core” shopping window. And with shipping disruptions still influenced by shifting tariff regulations, more consumers may turn to brick-and-mortar stores earlier in the season to ensure timely purchases – further supporting offline traffic.
If retailers and advertisers double down on early-season engagement while continuing to drive momentum through the “core” weeks, YoY traffic for the 2025 holiday season could deliver even bigger overall gains than those seen in 2024.
> Last year, early holiday promotions helped offset a shorter core holiday season.
> In 2025, retail and advertising professionals are again faced with a relatively short core shopping season. And aware of the condensed timeline and shipping disruptions, more shoppers may opt for early in-store purchases to avoid the risk of delayed deliveries.
This holiday season will reward advertisers and retailers who recognize the growing retail divide and tailor their messaging to the shoppers most likely to visit during the holidays – whether married homeowners on the hunt for electronics or affluent suburban families seeking beauty products. As in 2024, acting early to offset a shorter core shopping period will be essential to capturing demand. And those who combine sharp timing with audience insight will be best positioned to turn a complex season into a strong finish.
