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Black Friday 2024 provided valuable insights into consumer behavior as we look ahead to 2025. Placer’s blog highlighted a +2.7% increase in Black Friday weekend visits compared to last year, with shoppers focusing on value while also seeking unique and differentiated products, evidenced by strong year-over-year trends at off-price retailers like HomeGoods, Marshalls, and T.J. Maxx. Pandemic-era categories like home furnishings and sporting goods may also be seeing signs of a resurgence.
The standout takeaway, however, was the evolving role of malls. Mixed-use developments and placemaking, a key trend for malls heading into 2024, proved pivotal this Black Friday weekend. Open-air and indoor malls saw larger year-over-year visit increases (6.7% and 5.0%, respectively) than retailers across all property types (up 2.7%). This was a trend echoed by operators like Simon, further underscoring the mall’s continued relevance in modern retail.
Retailers remain integral to malls, but seasonal attractions, entertainment options, and a more diverse tenant mix have transformed malls into community hubs and prime destinations for both residents and tourists. These attractions have a symbiotic effect, driving greater foot traffic to mall tenants compared to standalone stores of the same brands.
Need evidence that this strategy works? Consumers are staying longer. Our data shows that open-air malls experienced a 7.2% increase in dwell time over Black Friday weekend, while indoor malls saw a 5.1% rise. As we've highlighted before, the longer consumers spend at a mall, the more likely they are to make a purchase.
A strong box office undeniably played a role in Black Friday visit trends and dwell time. Our data shows a nearly 250% increase in visits to movie theaters this Black Friday compared to last year (below). However, the data also reveals that many malls with unique holiday attractions and effective marketing strategies experienced increased visits, indicating that mall traffic was driven by more than just blockbuster movies.
Taken together, our data reinforces that malls have become more vital than ever to modern retail, evolving from traditional shopping hubs into multifaceted destinations that blend commerce, entertainment, and community experiences. Changes in tenant mix have introduced a diverse array of retailers, including digitally native brands, experiential stores, and unique local offerings, catering to broader consumer tastes. Increased visitor attractions, such as dine-in theaters, fitness studios, and immersive art installations, create compelling reasons that drive repeat visits for more than just shopping. Mall-focused events, from seasonal pop-ups to live performances, further enhance the draw by fostering engagement and creating a sense of occasion. This strategic evolution has positioned malls as essential anchors in the retail ecosystem, blending convenience and experience to meet the demands of today’s shoppers.
The holiday shopping season is in full swing, and with Black Friday weekend behind us, it's time to assess how this season is shaping up for retailers. As we noted before Thanksgiving, the shortened window between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year places added pressure on retailers to drive store traffic during key holiday events and weekends.
In 2023, Black Friday accounted for approximately 7% of holiday season retail visits, making it crucial for retailers this year to attract consumers early to mitigate potential slowdowns later in the season. Without burying the lede, Black Friday weekend (Friday through Sunday) delivered on this goal, with six of the seven analyzed retail sectors experiencing visitation growth. While the fervor around Black Friday may not match the excitement of the 1990s and 2000s, this year reaffirmed its enduring importance as a cornerstone of holiday shopping.
From a category perspective, luxury department stores had a strong performance this year, with traffic up 4% compared to Black Friday weekend last year. Nordstrom, in particular, stood out with a successful event. Throughout 2024, luxury department stores have worked hard to align more closely with consumer expectations in terms of assortment, in-store experience, and value, which clearly paid off during this key retail event. According to PersonaLive segmentation, Ultra Wealthy Families made up a quarter of visitors to luxury department stores during Black Friday weekend, bolstering traffic as these consumers tend to be less price-sensitive.
Full-line department stores, mass merchants, beauty, and home furnishing retailers also saw a 2-3% increase in traffic year-over-year. Overall, while discretionary retail still faces challenges, the weekend showed more positive momentum than we've seen in recent years.
Placer’s traffic estimates revealed that while most categories experienced an increase in weekend traffic, there was a noticeable shift in the distribution of visits across the days compared to last year. This year, Friday accounted for a smaller share of event visits than in 2023, while Sunday saw a higher percentage of traffic. Despite this shift, Friday still represented nearly 50% of event visits on average across retail sectors. It’s possible that consumers delayed their shopping trips until later in the weekend, potentially after conducting online research on Friday and Saturday.
What about the iconic lines outside retailers—did they make a comeback? Our data indicates that a few specific items drove consumers to camp out and arrive early for store openings on Black Friday. Notably, Target's exclusive release of the Taylor Swift Eras Tour book and a vinyl edition of her latest album, The Tortured Poets Department, attracted early crowds. Hourly visit data shows a higher share of visits between 4 AM and 6 AM compared to 2023. While last year saw a greater share of visits during regular store hours, this year shoppers arrived earlier, likely drawn by these exclusive products.
What does Black Friday weekend reveal about the rest of the holiday season? The industry successfully overcame its first hurdle—boosting overall holiday visitation despite fewer shopping days—thanks to the growth seen last weekend. However, challenges remain with more lull weeks ahead and an earlier Super Saturday this year. As we noted previously, a shorter season also means tighter shipping windows, which could drive increased in-store visits in the final days before Christmas. On the positive side, discretionary retail saw strong visitation, with key items and promotions effectively capturing the holiday spirit and engaging consumers during this critical period.
Black Friday is the biggest retail milestone of the year – drawing millions of shoppers to stores nationwide. And even as e-commerce claims a growing piece of the holiday shopping pie, consumers flock to brick-and-mortar retailers to browse the aisles, check out new products, and enjoy the festive holiday atmosphere.
But how did brick-and-mortar retailers fare during this year’s Black Friday? Did the high-stakes shopping period deliver?
Black Friday has evolved into a multi-day shopping bonanza. Early holiday sales draw crowds well before Thanksgiving, and major markdowns continue into the weekend and through Cyber Monday. Still, foot traffic data shows that the traditional milestone hasn’t lost its touch. On November 29th, 2024 visits to retailers nationwide surged by 40.4% compared to an average Friday this year – up slightly from 39.8% in 2023.
Year over year (YoY), retail foot traffic increased 0.9% on Black Friday this year – a modest uptick, but one which highlights the resilience of physical retail in an increasingly digital world. Most of the days during the week leading up to Black Friday also saw modest YoY visit increases, as shoppers got a head start on their bargain hunting. And the Saturday and Sunday following the milestone saw more significant YoY visit increases of 2.0% and 6.2%, respectively – perhaps driven in part by customers picking up orders placed online during Black Friday.
Digging deeper into the data for different areas of the country shows that the resonance of the milestone varies significantly by region. In Delaware and New Hampshire, visits to retailers on November 29th were up a whopping 75.9% and 72.8%, respectively, compared to an average Friday this year. And in much of the Midwest – including North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Kansas – retail foot traffic surged by more than 50.0%. By contrast, Western states such as California (26.0%), Wyoming (24.1%), New Mexico (24.5%), Montana (31.3%), Colorado (32.6%), Nevada (33.1%), and Utah (33.6%) experienced much more modest visit boosts.
The differences in statewide Black Friday performance may reflect more general regional Black Friday patterns. Though the Mountain states saw smaller Black Friday visit spikes than other areas of the country, retail visits in the region on November 29th, 2024 were up 4.1% YoY – perhaps a sign that the milestone is growing in local importance. The Eastern and Western South Central regions saw YoY visit increases of 3.7% and 2.8%, respectively – while the South Atlantic region saw a 1.5% increase. Meanwhile, some of the areas where Black Friday is most resonant – including the Midwest – saw visits remain flat or fall slightly below 2023 levels.
Holiday shopping is about more than just making transactions – consumers eagerly leave the comfort of their homes to embrace the thrill of the treasure hunt, explore new products firsthand, and enjoy the experience of shopping with friends. And foot traffic data shows that Black Friday retains plenty of in-person appeal.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai.
Many Americans choose to take the entire week of Thanksgiving off, heading home early and maximizing family time during the holiday. How does the extra vacation time impact travel and leisure foot traffic? We dove into the data to find out.
The Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving are among the busiest travel days of the year as Americans head back home or travel to friends to celebrate the holiday with loved ones. But with many employees taking the entire week of Thanksgiving off – or choosing to work remotely – the Saturday before Thanksgiving is also a popular travel day.
On Saturday November 23rd, 2024, major U.S. airports and ground transportation hubs saw a 16.8% and 12.5% increase in visits, respectively, compared to the recent Saturday average. The Saturday spike suggests that many travelers started their holiday journey early to avoid the pre-Thanksgiving rush while enjoying a little more time with family and friends.
Visits to both airports and ground transportation hubs then fell on Sunday – although the airport drop was more pronounced than the bus and train station dip – before diverging for the rest of the week: Bus and train stations rose on Monday and peaked on Tuesday before leveling off, while airport visits stayed low on Monday, spiked on Tuesday, and peaked on Wednesday.
The dip in Monday visits along with the relatively larger drop in Sunday visits for airports is likely due to athe decrease in business travel during the week of Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, ground transportation may pick up on Monday because those trips tend to be longer – so travelers could be choosing to head out earlier.
But even as travel traffic increased, hospitality visits dipped. Most hotel categories – with the exception of luxury hotels – received significantly fewer visits on the days before Thanksgiving relative to their recent daily visit averages, with visits only rising slightly for some categories just before the holiday.
This substantial drop in hotel visits pre-Thanksgiving is likely due to a decrease in business travel ahead of the holiday. But all that Saturday travel (see above) still means more people away from home – so where are these travelers staying? The dip in hotel visits before Thanksgiving suggests that many people traveling earlier in the week may be choosing to forego the hotel and instead stay with friends or family.
How do these early Thanksgiving travelers spend their time ahead of the holiday?
Many of those traveling early may be taking extra PTO ahead of the holiday to maximize quality time with their geographically distant family – so, unsurprisingly, foot traffic data indicates that visits to family-friendly destinations spike ahead of the holiday.
This year, visits to museums, aquariums, and zoos peaked on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving relative to the recent Tuesday average, and remained significantly elevated on Wednesday. Museums – which may appeal to a wider age range than the other two types of attractions – also received a substantial visit boost on Monday.
This trend highlights the opportunity for family-friendly venues to strategically plan events, promotions, and extended hours during the early Thanksgiving week to attract traveling families seeking meaningful experiences together.
Indeed, zooming in on family-friendly museums across the country reveals that these venues tend to welcome a much larger share of out-of-town guests on the Monday to Wednesday before Thanksgiving compared to the same period the week before. This suggests that many of those who traveled early for Thanksgiving use the days ahead of the holiday to spend quality time with their relatives and engage in family-friendly activities in their hosts’ cities. Museums and similar venues can capitalize on this trend by tailoring their offerings or promotions to appeal to these out-of-town visitors during this peak period.
Analyzing pre-Thanksgiving foot traffic to travel hubs and leisure venues reveals that many Americans likely leverage the extra time off to extend their stay with their loved ones and explore local attractions together. By understanding these trends, businesses and cultural institutions can better cater to holiday travelers, creating meaningful experiences during this uniquely busy and family-focused season.
For more data-driven insights, visit Placer.ai.
Many of Thanksgiving’s consumer behavior impacts are broadly recognized, from the pre-Thanksgiving Turkey Wednesday peak at grocery stores to the post-Thanksgiving Black Friday shopping bonanza. But diving into consumer foot traffic trends for the week before the holiday reveals some lesser-known ripple effects from many Americans’ favorite national event. So how did Thanksgiving impact retail, dining, and airport visits this year? We analyzed the data to find out.
Many Americans host friends and family for Thanksgiving dinner, leading to the well-recognized spike in pre-Thanksgiving grocery traffic that culminates on Turkey Wednesday. But hosting a proper Thanksgiving dinner requires more than just good food – the space needs to be prepped as well.
Foot traffic data indicates that many consumers do in fact spend the week before Thanksgiving shopping for decor and other entertainment supplies, driving visit increases at home furnishing stores such as Homesense and at party supply stores such as Party City. And the prospect of guests also seems to motivate consumers to tackle whatever home repair projects they’ve been putting off – visits to home improvement stores, including Home Depot and Lowe’s, also received a significant boost the week before Turkey Day.
All the time spent in the kitchen cooking for Thanksgiving may also be contributing to a rise in dining visits on the days leading up to the holiday. Although visits to restaurants, breakfast joints, and fast food places dipped slightly during the weekend before Thanksgiving, foot traffic to major dining segments began climbing on Monday, November 25th before peaking on Turkey Wednesday.
This increase in dining visits could be due in part to home cooks – and their families – looking to fuel up outside the home as the kitchen gets taken over by Thanksgiving prep. And some Americans who started the Thanksgiving vacation early may choose to spend some quality time going out to eat with their friends and families prior to the big day. Others who are already traveling may also be driving up dining visits by looking for more meals on the go.
But even as some Americans begin their Thanksgiving travels earlier in the week, most Americans traveling by car seem to wait until Wednesday to head out – and the traffic boost to car-related categories seems to occur much closer to the day itself. Car shops & services and gas stations & convenience stores received a minor bump on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving as some Americans hit the road early or got their car serviced ahead of the long drive back home. But most of the traffic boost to car shops, car washes, and gas stations occurred on Wednesday November 27th – just before Thanksgiving travel.
Thanksgiving’s economic impact is not limited to grocery stores and post-Thanksgiving Black Friday shopping. Analyzing consumer foot traffic data for the week before the holiday reveals the widespread impact that Thanksgiving has on a range of consumer sectors, from car washes to dining segments to home improvement.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai.
Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – is the grocery industry’s Black Friday. As shoppers flock to stores for turkeys, cranberry sauce, and other holiday essentials, the day delivers impressive visit spikes for grocery, superstore, and dollar stores alike. But how did this year’s Turkey Wednesday measure up – and which brands capitalized most successfully on this critical shopping event?
We dove into the data to find out.
People love to shop – but they also love to procrastinate, descending on stores just before major holidays to grab last-minute supplies. So far in 2024, March 30th (Easter Eve), May 11th (the day before Mother's Day), and November 27th (Turkey Wednesday) have been the busiest days of the year for grocery stores, superstores, and discount & dollar stores. But while the first two milestones drew bigger crowds to superstores and discount & dollar stores – both natural destinations for gift buyers and food shoppers alike – Turkey Wednesday was the grocery sector’s time to shine.
On November 27th, 2024, grocery stores saw visits surge by 81.0% compared to a year-to-date (YTD) daily average, capturing over half (51.2%) of visits across grocery, superstore, and discount chains. (During the rest of the year, grocery stores account for just 46.6% of the three industries’ overall visit pie.) Still, superstores and discount & dollar stores also attracted plenty of pre-Thanksgiving shoppers with enticing holiday promotions of their own. And despite reports of consumer cut-backs ahead of the holiday, this year’s Turkey Wednesday performance was on par with last year’s, with grocery visits on November 27th 2024 up 0.7% relative to November 22nd 2023 (last year’s Turkey Wednesday).
Diving into statewide grocery store data shows that like Black Friday, Turkey Wednesday’s appeal isn’t evenly distributed across the United States. Though grocery visits spiked nationwide on November 27th, 2024, some regions saw bigger foot traffic peaks than others.
In the Pacific Northwest, parts of New England, and some Mountain states, for example, grocery visits increased by less than 70.0% compared to a YTD daily average. But in parts of the Midwest and South, visits spiked by over 90.0%. Mississippi and Minnesota in particular stood out as major Turkey Wednesday winners, with visits up 96.8% and 96.5%, respectively. These regional differences highlight Turkey Wednesday’s special resonance in areas where holiday shopping traditions like Black Friday also dominate.
Which grocery chains benefit the most from Turkey Wednesday? A look at individual brands shows that traditional grocery stores – think Kroger, Albertsons, and Safeway – generally see bigger pre-Thanksgiving visit boosts than limited-assortment value chains like Aldi and Trader Joe’s. And in keeping with the regional trends noted above, some of the best-performing chains are midwestern favorites like Schnucks and Albertsons’ Jewel-Osco, which saw Turkey Wednesday foot traffic surges this year of 103.9% and 92.6%, respectively.
But numerous other chains also saw major Turkey-fueled visit increases on November 27th – including Food 4 Less, the Kroger-owned regional value chain with locations in both the Midwest and California, and East Coast brands ShopRite and Wegmans. When it comes to last-minute holiday shopping, it seems, there is plenty of room for multiple brands to thrive.
Though value-oriented grocery chains typically see smaller visit spikes on Turkey Wednesday, many budget brands are steadily growing their pre-holiday audiences.
Grocery Outlet Bargain Market and Aldi saw foot traffic rise by 13.5% and 11.2%, respectively, on November 27th, 2024 compared to last year’s Turkey Wednesday. (Both chains also saw substantial increases in the average number of visits to each of their individual locations – 9.7% and 8.4%, respectively – proving that the increase isn’t solely a result of fleet expansion.) Meanwhile, traditional grocery leaders like H-E-B, Kroger’s Ralphs, Ahold Delhaize’s Hannaford, and Albertsons’ Jewel Osco, also recorded year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic gains, highlighting robust performance across much of the sector.
Groceries are a crucial part of the Thanksgiving holiday – but liquor, it seems, may be even more indispensable. On November 27th, 2024, visits to liquor stores surged even higher than visits to grocery stores – generating a remarkable 186.4% visit spike, as consumers stocked up on spirits to ease the mood at stressful family gatherings or to show gratitude to hard-working hosts. Like for grocery stores, Turkey Wednesday was liquor stores’ busiest day of the year so far – though if last year is any indication, the run-up to Christmas will likely generate even more impressive traffic bumps.
Turkey Wednesday 2024 reaffirmed the key role played by traditional grocery stores in the run-up to Thanksgiving. And though supermarkets and liquor stores stole the spotlight, superstores and discount & dollar stores also experienced significant visit upticks – and value chains are steadily growing their pre-holiday audiences. How will these categories continue to fare throughout the rest of the holiday season?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analysis to find out.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
1. Market Divergence: While San Francisco's return-to-office trends have stabilized, Los Angeles is increasingly lagging behind national averages with office visits down 46.6% compared to pre-pandemic levels as of June 2025.
2. Commuter Pattern Shifts: Los Angeles faces a persistent decline in out-of-market commuters while San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters has recovered slightly, indicating deeper structural challenges in LA's office market recovery.
3. Visit vs. Visitor Gap: Unlike other markets where increased visits per worker offset declining visitor numbers, Los Angeles saw both metrics decline year-over-year, suggesting fundamental workforce retention issues.
4. Century City Exception: Century City emerges as LA's strongest office submarket with visits only 28.1% below pre-pandemic levels, driven by its premium amenities and strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center.
5. Demographic Advantage: Century City's success may stem from its success in attracting affluent, educated young professionals who value lifestyle integration and are more likely to maintain consistent office attendance in hybrid work arrangements.
While return-to-office trends have stabilized in many markets nationwide, Los Angeles and San Francisco face unique challenges that set them apart from national patterns. This report examines the divergent trajectories of these two major West Coast markets, with particular focus on Los Angeles' ongoing struggles and the emergence of one specific submarket that bucks broader trends.
Through analysis of commuter patterns, demographic shifts, and localized performance data, we explore how factors ranging from out-of-market workforce changes to amenity-driven location advantages are reshaping the competitive landscape for office real estate in Southern California.
Both Los Angeles and San Francisco continue to significantly underperform the national office occupancy average. In June 2025, average nationwide visits to office buildings were 30.5% below January 2019 levels, compared to a 46.6% and 46.4% decline in visits to Los Angeles and San Francisco offices, respectively.
While both cities now show similar RTO rates, they arrived there through different trajectories. San Francisco has consistently lagged behind national return-to-office levels since pandemic restrictions first lifted.
Los Angeles, however, initially mirrored nationwide trends before its office market began diverging and falling behind around mid-2022.
The decline in office visits in Los Angeles and San Francisco can be partly attributed to fewer out-of-market commuters. Both cities saw significant drops in the percentage of employees who live outside the city but commute to work between H1 2019 and H1 2023.
However, here too, the two cities diverged in recent years: San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters relative to local employees rebounded between 2023 and 2024, while Los Angeles' continued to decline – another indication that LA's RTO is decelerating as San Francisco stabilizes.
Like in other markets, Los Angeles saw a larger drop in office visits than in office visitors when comparing current trends to pre-pandemic levels. This is consistent with the shift to hybrid work arrangements, where many of the workers who returned to the office are coming in less frequently than before the pandemic, leading to a larger drop in visits compared to the drop in visitors.
But looking at the trajectory of RTO more recently shows that in most markets – including San Francisco – office visits are up year-over-year (YoY) while visitor numbers are down. This suggests that the workers slated to return to the office have already done so, and increasing the numbers of visits per visitor is now the path towards increased office occupancy.
In Los Angeles, visits also outperformed visitors – but both figures were down YoY (the gap in visits was smaller than the gap in visitors). So while the visitors who did head to the office in LA in Q2 2025 clocked in more visits per person compared to Q2 2024, the increase in visits per visitor was not enough to offset the decline in office visitors.
While Los Angeles may be lagging in terms of its overall office recovery, the city does have pockets of strength – most notably Century City. In Q2 2025, the number of inbound commuters visiting the neighborhood was just 24.7% lower than it was in Q2 2019 and higher (+1.0%) than last year's levels.
According to Colliers' Q2 2025 report, Century City accounts for 27% of year-to-date leasing activity in West Los Angeles – more than double any other submarket – and commands the highest asking rental rates. The area benefits from Trophy and Class A office towers that may create a flight-to-quality dynamic where tenants migrate from urban core locations to this Westside submarket.
The submarket's success is likely bolstered by its strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center – visit data reveals that 45% of weekday commuters to Century City also visited Westfield Century City during Q2 2025. The convenience of accessing the mall's extensive retail, dining, and entertainment options during lunch breaks or after work may encourage employees to come into the office more frequently.
Perhaps thanks to its strategic locations and amenities-rich office buildings, Century City succeeds in attracting relatively affluent office workers.
Century City's office submarket has a higher median trade area household income (HHI) than either mid-Wilshire or Downtown LA. The neighborhood also attracts significant shares of the "Educated Urbanite" Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment – defined as "well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs".
This demographic typically has fewer family obligations and greater flexibility in their work arrangements, making them more likely to embrace hybrid schedules that include regular office attendance. Affluent singles also tend to value the lifestyle amenities and networking opportunities that come with working in a premium office environment like Century City: This demographic is often in career-building phases where in-person collaboration and visibility matter more, driving consistent office utilization that helps sustain the submarket's performance even as other LA office areas struggle with lower occupancy rates.
The higher disposable income of this audience also aligns well with the submarket's upscale retail and dining options at nearby Westfield Century City, creating a mutually reinforcing ecosystem where the office environment and surrounding amenities cater to their preferences.
As the broader Los Angeles market grapples with a shrinking commuter base and declining office utilization, the performance gap between premium, amenity-rich locations and traditional office districts is likely to widen. For investors and tenants alike, these trends underscore the growing importance of location quality, demographic targeting, and lifestyle integration in determining long-term office market viability across Southern California.
Century City's success – anchored by its affluent, career-focused workforce and integrated lifestyle amenities – can offer a blueprint for office market resilience in the hybrid work era.
