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The U.S. restaurant industry navigated a challenging first quarter in 2026, marked by macroeconomic headwinds, unfavorable weather, and cautious consumer spending. Yet, within the breakfast-first sector, a clear narrative is emerging: The era of the traditional legacy diner is fading, making way for premium, experience-driven concepts. And at the forefront of this shift is First Watch. Armed with a differentiated culinary menu, rapid but disciplined expansion, and a highly resilient consumer base, the brand is not only defying broader casual dining trends but is fundamentally rewriting the playbook for daytime dining.
Over the past few years, the breakfast-first restaurant category has bifurcated into two distinct camps: premium and experience-driven concepts capturing visit share, and legacy diner-style chains, many of which are struggling to keep up. While Q1 2026 proved to be a tighter traffic environment overall amid macroeconomic uncertainty and unfavorable weather conditions across the U.S., several experience-focused brands and resilient fan-favorites continued growing their footprints – and their audiences.
First Watch led the pack in overall visit growth as it continued expanding its store count, while average visits per location held steady – demonstrating its ability to scale without diluting demand at existing locations – while Snooze saw a 1.1% increase in visits per location.
Conversely, the steepest laggards in the segment were legacy diner chains IHOP, Denny’s, and Huddle House, all of which saw overall visits decline as they continued rightsizing their footprints, with visits per location also modestly down. These brands are increasingly tracking closer to casual dining peers like Applebee’s and Outback Steakhouse, which have faced significant headwinds in recent months.
Still, among legacy diners, Waffle House stood out as a clear outperformer in Q1 2026, likely due in part to its status as a regional institution across much of the South. And the chain’s operational resilience may have also played a role: While Winter Storm Fern pushed the so-called “Waffle House Index” into the red across much of the region in late January, the brand’s unique disaster-readiness appears to have enabled some locations to reopen quickly or avoid closure entirely.
Ultimately, despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, brands that leverage a differentiated culinary menu, high-touch customer service, or fierce brand loyalty are successfully navigating the highly fragmented daypart much better than their traditional diner counterparts.
While several premium concepts have successfully carved out a lucrative niche in breakfast-first dining, First Watch has redefined the category. By blending the elevated, chef-driven culinary experience of a localized brunch spot with the operational efficiency of a national powerhouse, First Watch has created a model that sees success across multiple regions of the U.S. This unique positioning provides the brand with a massive structural advantage, fueling a physical growth trajectory that far outpaces its competitors.
Importantly, visitation data also reinforces that First Watch’s restaurant classes from 2024 and 2025 have consistently kept pace with the maturity curve of recent openings. An analysis of visit-per-location trends for First Watch locations opened in 2024 and 2025 versus the chain’s nationwide fleet reveals that the class of 2024 outpaced nationwide trends, while the 2025 cohort – even when factoring in the high volume of openings that took place in Q3 2025 – has also kept pace. These are incredibly positive indicators for a brand rapidly scaling its national footprint.
First Watch has set a long-term goal of reaching more than 2,200 restaurants across the United States – an ambitious target that would more than triple its current size. Reaching this milestone is achievable, but it will require the brand to meaningfully deepen its penetration in large coastal and Sun Belt metros, where it remains under-penetrated relative to its proven suburban strongholds. Placer.ai foot traffic data across more than 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) reveals that First Watch's unit economics are remarkably consistent, confirming the model works across multiple geographies. While newer markets like New York, Chicago, Boston, and Las Vegas currently generate lower visits per capita than the chain's core Sun Belt and Midwest suburban markets, there are significant opportunities for expansion. First Watch's breakfast-first model, strong unit-level economics, and growing brand recognition give it a credible platform to aggressively capture market share in these new territories.
Despite slowing early-spring trends, First Watch remains well-positioned to hit its 2026 same-store sales growth target of 1% to 3%. This confidence is rooted in a few key factors. First, the brand benefits from a resilient core consumer who is materially less sensitive to macroeconomic pressures than the traditional diner customer, providing a much higher floor for baseline traffic. Second, First Watch leverages reliable pricing power, as its premium positioning and highly anticipated seasonal menu rotations consistently drive check growth. Finally, the company's commitment to operational excellence through its company-owned model ensures that execution remains strong and the guest experience is uncompromised, even during slower traffic periods. By driving outsized performance from its newest units and maintaining a highly loyal customer base, the brand is not merely surviving the breakfast category's headwinds; it is actively redefining what leadership in daytime dining looks like.
For more data-driven dining insights, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The fast-casual sector has long been defined by its sweet spot within the restaurant industry, combining the convenience of fast food and the quality of casual dining. For years, CAVA and sweetgreen have stood as the standard-bearers of the health-forward movement, expanding their store footprint while building fiercely loyal followings among affluent consumers. However, Q1 2026 foot traffic data suggests that these two brands are now on diverging trajectories. While overall visits to both chains grew – thanks in part to ongoing expansions – CAVA saw its average visits per venue grow as well, while sweetgreen's per-location traffic remained flat YoY.
The contrast between same-store visit trends is even more striking. Over the past six months, same-store visits to CAVA have been uniformly positive – and 2026 traffic was particularly strong. Meanwhile, sweetgreen has seen consistently negative same-store visit declines, with March 2026 same-store visits down 7.6% compared to CAVA's 6.8% increase. This represents a meaningful spread between two brands competing for the same premium consumer.
This divergence is the result of structural differences in menu mix and value perception. Over the past six months, CAVA has rolled out strategic menu enhancements designed to reengage with middle-income consumers who may have turned away from fast-casual options in recent months and elevate its overall value perception.
Leaning heavily into its warm, protein-forward architecture, the brand has introduced additions like premium glazed salmon as a protein option alongside new variations of its highly successful spicy chicken and steak offering. Alongside these protein upgrades, CAVA has refreshed its seasonal roasted vegetable lineups and also introduced smaller items like harissa pita chips, sides, and dips. This ensures that the menu remains dynamic enough to drive incremental visits and avoid customer fatigue while maintaining the highly customizable, assembly-line efficiency that protects its strong unit economics. The diversity of CAVA’s menu – both in terms of innovation and pricing – have helped to drive down the chain’s captured trade area median household income the past four quarters, according to data from STI: Popstats combined with Placer data.
To close this widening gap, Sweetgreen has also planned several menu changes in 2026 focused on operational simplicity, value perception, and a major new category expansion. The brand kicked off the year by highlighting its health-forward roots through a limited-time menu collaboration with Dr. Mark Hyman that utilized existing ingredients, followed by the launch of the seasonal Winter Harvest Bowl and the highly requested return of shredded cheese to the core menu. However, the most significant news is Sweetgreen's planned mid-2026 rollout of wraps.
Currently undergoing rigorous stage-gate testing in Los Angeles, the Midwest, and Manhattan, the wrap platform – featuring accessible price points starting at $10.95 and capping below $15 for in-store pickup – is designed to aggressively target consumer value sensitivity. Management noted that wraps are intended to build upon their 2025 efforts (which included increased protein portions and $12 Daily Greens) to prove to budget-conscious, quality-driven diners that Sweetgreen can deliver a compelling, high-value meal without compromising its premium brand identity.
Ultimately, the Q1 2026 data serves as a critical inflection point. CAVA is actively gaining share in a contracting category by mastering geographic diversification, daypart breadth, and perceived value. Sweetgreen has the brand identity, the affluent customer base, and the regional runway to recover, but the strategic decisions made over the next 12 to 18 months will dictate whether this current slump is a temporary setback or a permanent competitive reality.
For more data-driven dining insight, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Events are foundational to New Orleans’ identity and economic model. From the Sugar Bowl to Jazz Fest and Mardi Gras, to conferences, conventions, exhibitions and meetings of all sizes, the city operates on a year-round cycle of large-scale gatherings that drive consistent visitor inflows. Over the past 12 months, 64.6% of weekend visitors to New Orleans’ downtown, including the French Quarter, Central Business District (CBD), and Arts District, were domestic tourists coming from more than 250 miles away. And as travel behavior continues to evolve post-COVID – making it more difficult to predict attendance patterns from prior-year trends – the complexity of hosting at scale requires increasingly sophisticated, data-driven operational coordination.
Perhaps no event demonstrates this model – and this need – more clearly than Mardi Gras. Running from January 6th through Mardi Gras Day, the carnival season culminates in a surge of parades and celebrations that bring major crowds downtown (French Quarter, CBD, Arts District) and all along the uptown parade route.
Crucially, many of those visitors come from within Louisiana, making the festival a powerful vehicle for strengthening ties between the city and surrounding communities: During the final 12 days of Mardi Gras 2026, 54.2% of them came from within Louisiana, compared to 23.5% during the rest of the year.
And despite an uncertain macroeconomic environment, Mardi Gras’ audience continues to expand. From the Krewe of Cleopatra on February 6 through Mardi Gras Day on February 17, out-of-market visits to downtown New Orleans (French Quarter, CBD, Arts District) increased 10% year over year, reaching their highest level since 2020.
Data also shows that Mardi Gras draws a surprisingly diverse audience. To be sure, young revelers are a big part of the story – on Mardi Gras Day, the French Quarter sees an influx of “Contemporary Households”, a young-skewing segment that includes singles, couples without children, and non-family households. The median household income of the Quarter’s trade area also declines on the big day, as students and early-career professionals crowd into the neighborhood to party.
But some of the season's more family-friendly parades – like the Krewe of Bacchus which took place this year on Sunday, February 15th – have a decidedly different vibe.
On the day of the parade, families gather early along St. Charles Avenue, setting up tents and picnic tables and sharing traditional local food ahead of the evening procession. And surrounding neighborhoods such as the Garden District experience a measurable rise in affluent family segments and median household income, highlighting Mardi Gras’ broad and diverse appeal.
Of course, managing an event of this magnitude requires coordination across agencies, stakeholders, and neighborhoods. And in a post-pandemic environment where past attendance patterns cannot always serve as reliable benchmarks, data has become a critical tool for decision-making.
Audience insights now play a central role in operational planning – identifying where visitors congregate, estimating crowd volumes, and informing preparation by law enforcement, city officials, and other city stakeholders. When large gatherings are anticipated in specific corridors or blocks, recent visitation trends provide actionable context that helps partners allocate resources efficiently and prepare accordingly.
Few cities are as synonymous with celebration as New Orleans. And by combining tradition, diversity, and data-driven operational precision, the city has built the capacity to host complex, high-volume gatherings with consistency and coordination year after year.
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With roughly one in eight Americans now using GLP-1 medications for weight loss, their rapid adoption is shaping up to be one of the most consequential behavioral shifts in recent memory – with wide-ranging implications for businesses tied to how people spend their time and money.
We analyzed the data to understand how GLP-1 usage may be influencing real-world retail and dining foot traffic. How is grocery store visitation changing? What’s happening in limited-service dining? And which other categories are gaining from a heightened focus on health and wellness – further accelerating trends that began to take hold after the pandemic?
Research from Cornell University shows that GLP-1 users reduce household grocery spending by an average of 5.3% within six months of starting a medication, with the most significant pullbacks concentrated in calorie-dense, processed categories. At the same time, a handful of health-oriented foods – including yogurt, fresh fruit, nutrition bars, and meat snacks – are seeing increased spend.
And foot traffic data points to a parallel shift in where consumers are shopping, with a growing share of grocery visits flowing toward fresh-format stores like Trader Joe’s and Sprouts Farmers Market that emphasize high-quality perishables, curated health-oriented assortments, and an elevated in-store experience. While this pivot has been underway for several years, reflecting a broader post-pandemic focus on health and wellness, its recent acceleration coincides with the rise in GLP-1 use.
From Q1 2022 to Q1 2026, these chains steadily expanded their share of overall grocery foot traffic, with momentum accelerating beginning in Q1 2024, even as some experienced per-store softness amid a challenging consumer environment. Over the same period, the median household income within fresh-format chains’ captured markets, which had remained largely stable through early 2024, began to decline. This trend suggests a broadening customer base, as households across income brackets increasingly prioritize higher-quality food and allocate a larger share of their grocery trips to fresh formats.
The reallocation of spending also extends beyond the grocery aisle. Foot traffic data points to a meaningful reordering of food-away-from-home visits over the past three years, with healthier dining segments outperforming more indulgent ones – underscoring a broader shift toward more nutritious options that GLP-1 adoption may be helping to reinforce.
Frozen yogurt chains outpaced ice cream shops in year-over-year visit growth in both 2024 and 2025, as consumers gravitated toward lighter frozen treats. Smoothie and juice chains also captured growing demand, buoyed by expanding footprints from brands like Tropical Smoothie Cafe, Smoothie King, and Playa Bowls, while fast-casual similarly pulled ahead of QSR.
Fitness participation has been on the rise since the pandemic, and the data suggests gym habits are becoming more consistent over time – a trend that GLP-1 users, who often incorporate structured exercise into their routines, may be helping to reinforce.
Between Q1 2023 and Q1 2026, the share of visitors to leading gyms stopping by at least three times in an average month rose from 44.8% to 46.8%, while the share visiting at least four times rose from 37.3% to 39.1%. For a growing segment of the population, going to the gym has become a regular part of the weekly routine – with implications for fitness brands and the broader ecosystem of health-oriented businesses competing for this newly routine-driven consumer.
As consumers deepen their focus on health and fitness, the body transformations associated with GLP-1 use are also reshaping apparel demand. Alongside a growing need for wardrobe replenishment, GLP-1 users are investing more in their appearance and rediscovering the experience of shopping for clothes.
And this trend aligns with recent foot traffic data. Even as discretionary spending continues to face headwinds in a challenging macroeconomic environment, clothing retailers are seeing consistent year-over-year visit growth, driven in large part by the off-price sector – with each year outpacing the broader discretionary retail category by a widening margin. Apparel is pulling away from the pack, likely driven in part by a consumer whose relationship with their body – and with shopping – has fundamentally changed.
The GLP-1 era is still in its early stages – but as programs like Amazon’s new GLP-1 management program expand access, these drugs are likely to continue reshaping shopping behavior in the months and years ahead. The data points to a consumer who is eating differently, moving more, and spending in ways that reflect a new set of priorities, further amplifying the focus on health and wellness that has emerged over the past several years.
For more data-driven retail and dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Sprouts Farmers Market entered 2026 expecting a challenging quarter – and Q1 foot traffic trends bore that out. Against a Q1 2025 comparison where comps surged 11.7% year over year (YoY), the company guided Q1 2026 comparable sales to decline between -3.0% and -1.0%, citing both the tough lap and continued pressure on grocery shoppers from elevated food prices. And same-store visits also dropped, falling between -3.0% and -6.0% YoY in Q1.
Still, overall foot traffic rose 1.8%, supported by the 37 stores opened in fiscal 2025 and additional locations added in early 2026, which helped offset softness at existing stores.
Against this backdrop, Sprouts is making several forward-looking investments that could support a traffic recovery later this year. Continued expansion, a new loyalty program launched in 2025, and ongoing merchandising innovation – alongside its transition to self-distribution for fresh meat – all position the company to compete on both quality and value as macro conditions evolve.
Will Sprouts return to same-store visit growth in Q2?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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In February 2026, Chipotle unveiled its "Recipe for Growth" plan to reverse declining sales by improving operations, boosting marketing, and refreshing its menu. And though the plan has only been in place for a couple of months, traffic data suggests that it may already be having a positive impact on foot traffic to the chain.
After three consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in average visits per location, Chipotle's foot traffic trends are showing signs of recovery. In Q1 2026, average visits per location were nearly flat (-0.2% YoY), while overall visits grew 5.8% – the strongest growth seen over the past year.
Several branding and menu innovations likely contributed to Chipotle's traffic recovery, including the high protein menu launched in late December 2025 and partnerships with athletes and sporting events. The biggest single driver, however, appears to have been the return of Chicken al Pastor on February 10, 2026 – a fan-favorite protein that had generated more social media requests for its comeback than any other LTO in the chain's history. In the month of its launch, overall visits rose 10.1% YoY and same-store visits grew 5.1%.
Still, the following month, overall visits were up just 3.6% and same-store visits were flat – suggesting that popular menu items can generate meaningful visit spikes, but those spikes may not automatically translate into lasting traffic bumps.
Chipotle appears to be leaning into this dynamic rather than fighting it. Starting April 28, the chain is rotating out Chicken al Pastor in favor of Honey Chicken – its best-performing LTO ever – effectively betting that a steady drumbeat of novelty and scarcity can sustain traffic where any single item cannot.
Another pillar of the company's "Back to Growth" plan entailed creating "new occasions that drive demand into our restaurants" – and Chipotle seems to have accomplished just that with its successful "Tatted Like a Chipotle Bag" BOGO promotion.
On March 13, 2026, from 3 to 4 PM local time, Chipotle offered an in-store BOGO entrée to any customer sporting a tattoo – real, temporary, or hand-drawn – a nod to the iconic tattoo-style graphics on a Chipotle bag. The one-hour activation drove a 55.3% spike in visits above the year-to-date average, with the highest daily visit count recorded since Placer.ai began tracking Chipotle's traffic in 2018. Chipotle also reported March 13th 2026 as the highest daily sales day in the chain's history.
That a single one-hour, in-store promotion could shatter the chain's all-time sales record speaks to the power of Chipotle's brand equity and the effectiveness of leaning into what makes it culturally distinct.
The early results suggest that Chipotle's 'Recipe for Growth' is already working – Q1's traffic recovery was built on a potent mix of menu innovation, viral activations, and renewed cultural relevance. But while the chain's strategy of cycling LTOs and engineering shareable moments has clearly rekindled consumer excitement – whether this delivers consistent same-store visit growth will be the real measure of "Recipe for Growth" success.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
This report leverages location intelligence data to analyze the auto dealership market in the United States. By looking at visit trends to branded showrooms, used car lots, and mixed inventory dealerships – and analyzing the types of visitors that visit each category – this white paper sheds light on the state of car dealership space in 2023.
Prior to the pandemic and throughout most of 2020, visits to both car brand and used-only dealerships followed relatively similar trends. But the two categories began to diverge in early 2021.
Visits to car brand dealerships briefly returned to pre-pandemic levels in mid-2021, but traffic fell consistently in the second half of the year as supply-chain issues drove consistent price increases. So despite the brief mid-year bump, 2021 ended with overall new car sales – as well as overall foot traffic to car brand dealerships – below 2019 levels. Visits continued falling in 2022 as low inventory and high prices hampered growth.
Meanwhile, although the price for used cars rose even more (the average price for a new and used car was up 12.1% and 27.1% YoY, respectively, in September 2021), used cars still remained, on average, more affordable than new ones. So with rising demand for alternatives to public transportation – and with new cars now beyond the reach of many consumers – the used car market took off and visits to used car dealerships skyrocketed for much of 2021 and into 2022. But in the second half of last year, as gas prices remained elevated – tacking an additional cost onto operating a vehicle – visits to used car dealerships began falling dramatically.
Now, the price of both used and new cars has finally begun falling slightly. Foot traffic data indicates that the price drops appear to be impacting the two markets differently. So far this year, sales and visits to dealerships of pre-owned vehicles have slowed, while new car sales grew – perhaps due to the more significant pent-up demand in the new car market. The ongoing inflation, which has had a stronger impact on lower-income households, may also be somewhat inhibiting used-car dealership visit growth. At the same time, foot traffic to used car dealerships did remain close to or slightly above 2019 levels for most of 2023, while visits to branded dealerships were significantly lower year-over-four-years.
The situation remains dynamic – with some reports of prices creeping back up – so the auto dealership landscape may well continue to shift going into 2024.
With car prices soaring, the demand for pre-owned vehicles has grown substantially. Analyzing the trade area composition of leading dealerships that sell used cars reveals the wide spectrum of consumers in this market.
Dealerships carrying a mixed inventory of both new and used vehicles seem to attract relatively high-income consumers. Using the STI: Popstats 2022 data set to analyze the trade areas of Penske Automotive, AutoNation, and Lithia Auto Stores – which all sell used and new cars – reveals that the HHI in the three dealerships’ trade areas is higher than the nationwide median. Differences did emerge within the trade areas of the mixed inventory car dealerships, but the range was relatively narrow – between $77.5K to $84.5K trade area median HHI.
Meanwhile, the dealerships selling exclusively used cars – DriveTime, Carvana, and CarMax – exhibited a much wider range of trade area median HHIs. CarMax, the largest used-only car dealership in the United States, had a yearly median HHI of $75.9K in its trade area – just slightly below the median HHI for mixed inventory dealerships Lithia Auto Stores and AutoNation and above the nationwide median of $69.5K. Carvana, a used car dealership that operates according to a Buy Online, Pick Up in Store (BOPIS) model, served an audience with a median HHI of $69.1K – more or less in-line with the nationwide median. And DriveTime’s trade areas have a median HHI of $57.6K – significantly below the nationwide median.
The variance in HHI among the audiences of the different used-only car dealerships may reflect the wide variety of offerings within the used-car market – from virtually new luxury vehicles to basic sedans with 150k+ miles on the odometer.
Visits to car brands nationwide between January and September 2023 dipped 0.9% YoY, although several outliers reveal the potential for success in the space even during times of economic headwinds.
Visits to Tesla’s dealerships have skyrocketed recently, perhaps thanks to the company’s frequent price cuts over the past year – between September 2022 and 2023, the average price for a new Tesla fell by 24.7%. And with the company’s network of Superchargers gearing up to serve non-Tesla Electric Vehicles (EVs), Tesla is finding room for growth beyond its already successful core EV manufacturing business and positioning itself for a strong 2024.
Japan-based Mazda used the pandemic as an opportunity to strengthen its standing among U.S. consumers, and the company is now reaping the fruits of its labor as visits rise YoY. Porsche, the winner of U.S New & World Report Best Luxury Car Brand for 2023, also outperformed the wider car dealership sector. Kia – owned in part by Hyundai – and Hyundai both saw their foot traffic increase YoY as well, thanks in part to the popularity of their SUV models.
Analyzing dealerships on a national level can help car manufacturers make macro-level decisions on marketing, product design, and brick-and-mortar fleet configurations. But diving deeper into the unique characteristics of each dealership’s trade area on a state level reveals differences that can serve brands looking to optimize their offerings for their local audience.
For example, analyzing the share of households with children in the trade areas of four car brand dealership chains in four different states reveals significant variation across the regional markets.
Nationwide, Tesla served a larger share of households with children than Kia, Ford, or Land Rover. But focusing on California shows that in the Golden State, Kia’s trade area population included the largest share of this segment than the other three brands, while Land Rover led this segment in Illinois. Meanwhile, Ford served the smallest share of households with children on a nationwide basis – but although the trend held in Illinois and Pennsylvania, California Ford dealerships served more households with children than either Tesla or Land Rover.
Leveraging location intelligence to analyze car dealerships adds a layer of consumer insights to industry provided sales numbers. Visit patterns and audience demographics reveal how foot traffic to used-car lots, mixed inventory dealerships, and manufacturers’ showrooms change over time and who visits these businesses on a national or regional level. These insights allow auto industry stakeholders to assess current demand, predict future trends, and keep a finger on the pulse of car-purchasing habits in the United States.
