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A decade after declaring bankruptcy, Detroit is coming back to life. The city is experiencing a resurgence that is bringing new energy to its streets – and an increase in the population of the wider CBSA.
We took a look at some of the data points highlighting the return of the Motor City to better understand what is driving the city’s growth.
Detroit is making a comeback – undergoing a transformation from a depressed city to a viable and exciting place to live and work. Between July 2022 and July 2023, the city’s population grew for the first time in 66 years, likely thanks to economic revitalization efforts, a thriving tech scene, and a newfound “cool factor” driving inbound migration. And looking at more recent numbers for the wider CBSA indicates that the trend is continuing – net migration to the Detroit-Warren-Dearborne CBSA was either neutral or positive every month between January and August 2024.
This sustained net migration suggests that this growth is not a one-off – Detroit is increasingly becoming a place recognized for the opportunities it offers, economic and otherwise.
Diving into the CBSAs feeding Detroit’s domestic migration boom reveals that many of the Motor City’s newest residents are coming from other areas in Michigan. Between May 2023 and May 2024, the top five feeder CBSAs for migration to Detroit were located in the Wolverine State, accounting for over a third (35.4%) of new Detroit residents. The influx of Michiganders into Detroit may mean that Detroit’s new residents come with an already strong regional identity and are invested in continuing to revitalize Detroit.
The data also reveals that many of Detroit’s new residents came from areas with higher median household incomes (HHI) than the city’s: Around 33.8% of incoming residents came from areas where the median HHI was $100K and up, compared to just 31.6% of Detroit residents in that HHI bracket. The influx of higher-income residents to the area highlights just how well Detroit has reinvented itself, becoming an increasingly desirable destination for wealthier individuals – a positive feedback loop that could continue driving its economic growth.
Detroit has been known by many names over the years – Motown, Detroit Rock City, The Paris of the West – and today, it’s earning a new title: the Comeback City. With a positive economic outlook, steady population growth, and a thriving cultural scene, the future looks bright for Detroit.
Stay up to date with the latest data-driven civic insights at Placer.ai.
Chicken restaurants have seen a huge surge in popularity over the past few years, from the epic Chicken Wars of 2021 to the impressive stateside success of international chains. And analyzing recent data indicates that fried chicken concepts are likely to continue as a top growth segment in 2025 as well.
We dove into the visit numbers to see how the segment is faring and highlighted some of the chains making the biggest splash.
In a dining segment that’s faced its fair share of challenges of late, chicken restaurant chains are standing out. Visits to QSR and fast-casual chicken chains consistently outperformed the wider fast-casual and QSR segments in terms of YoY visits, with the chicken category seeing a 4.3% YoY traffic boost in Q3 2024.
As diners continue to prioritize convenient and affordable meals in the face of continued economic uncertainty, chicken-centric restaurants – which offer both value and speed – seem well-positioned to continue thriving.
Diving into the visitation data for some of the category’s chicken leaders reveals that many of the bigger names in the game are not only growing their storefleet – they’re also continuing to drive more visits to each location.
Dave’s Hot Chicken, Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers, and Church’s Texas Chicken each attract millions of visits to their brick-and-mortar location every month – and traffic is steadily growing thanks to the three chains' expanding footprint. And location analytics reveal that these brands are also seeing strong growth in monthly visits per location – highlighting the impressive demand for fried chicken and showcasing these companies’ ability to grow their consumer base through fleet expansions.
Another indication of the fried chicken market’s continued growth potential comes from the success of smaller brands flourishing alongside the category leaders. Chains like Pollo Campero, Urban Bird Hot Chicken, Layne’s Chicken Fingers, and Super Chix may not be competing with industry leaders yet – but their impressive YoY visit growth highlights consumers’ current appetite for fried chicken franchises.
The four analyzed chains enjoyed strong monthly visits in 2024 relative to 2023, with November 2024 visits elevated between 13.1% and 29.1% YoY.
Whether these smaller chains are fueling their growth by offering an innovative twist on the traditional fried bird or benefiting from homegrown loyalty, the bottom line remains clear. Despite operating in a market that's getting more crowded by the day, there's ample opportunity for new players to throw their feathered caps in the ring.
The fried chicken segment remains a high-demand category, evidenced by the segment’s strong visit performance over the past year. With fried chicken chains continuing to expand across the country, will they maintain their visit dominance? Or will the cluck stop somewhere?
Visit Placer.ai to stay up-to-date with the latest data-driven dining insights.
Darden Restaurants Inc. is the largest full-service restaurant group in the country, operating ten dining chains that range from fine dining to casual bars.
How has the company fared in recent months? We examined the location analytics to evaluate Darden’s recent performance and took a closer look at what the holiday season might bring for its wide array of brands.
The full-service restaurant category has faced significant challenges in recent years as rising food prices, labor shortages, and inflation pushed costs up and some customers away. But since the beginning of 2024, Darden has managed to stay ahead and outpace the wider full-service restaurant segment in terms of year-over-year (YoY) quarterly visits. Q3 2024 visits were 0.9% higher than in Q3 2023. In contrast, the broader full-service segment experienced a 1.9% decline in the same period.
As restaurant inflation finally begins to cool and the dining segment tiptoes cautiously toward recovery, Darden’s ability to stay ahead of the competition suggests that its brands are resonating with customers even during periods of economic uncertainty.
Darden’s portfolio runs the gamut from household names like Olive Garden (with over 900 locations) and LongHorn Steakhouse (over 500 locations) to smaller chains like Yard House and Bahama Breeze. And zooming in on the recent November data reveals that most chains are still enjoying year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. Yard House led the pack with 11.0% more visits than in November 2023, followed by LongHorn Steakhouse (9.0% YoY growth), and Bahama Breeze (8.8% YoY growth).
This steady November momentum bodes well for Darden as the typically busy holiday season approaches.
Indeed, diving into previous years’ visitation patterns reveals that Darden’s brands generally receive sizable visit bumps over the holiday season.
Analyzing December visits in 2019, 2022, and 2023 relative to each year’s January to November monthly visit average highlighted significant visit boosts across almost all Darden brands. The Capital Grille led the charge in December 2023, with visits 42.3% higher than the January to November average, followed closely by Ruth’s Chris Steak House (34.4%) and Season’s 52 (31.1%).
These consistent December traffic spikes coupled with November’s strong showing suggests that the company is well-positioned to sustain its current momentum into the holiday season and beyond.
Darden Restaurants continues to be a leader in the full-service segment, enjoying visit growth and capturing holiday foot traffic.
Will this year’s holiday season bring increased foot traffic to the company’s brands?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven dining insights.
About the Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining: The Placer 100 Index for Retail and Dining is a curated, dynamic list of leading chains that often serve as prime tenants for shopping centers and malls. The index includes chains from various industries, such as superstores, grocery, dollar stores, dining, apparel, and more. Among the notable chains featured are Walmart, Target, Costco, Kroger, Ulta Beauty, The Home Depot, McDonald’s, Chipotle, Crunch Fitness, and Trader Joe's. The goal of the list is to provide insight into the wider trends impacting the retail, dining and shopping center segments.
October’s positive visitation trends continued in November, with overall visits to the Placer 100 Retail & Dining Index up 0.9% year-over-year (YoY) – a strong start to the holiday season.
Some of the November uptick was likely driven by Black Friday – visits to the Placer 100 Index were up 2.2% YoY overall for Black Friday Weekend 2024, with Sunday seeing a particularly pronounced visit spike of 5.3%.
And zooming out to the week before Black Friday reveals that the visit boost started even earlier – YoY visits increased as early as the Saturday before Thanksgiving, with traffic remaining positive throughout the week leading up to the retail milestone. The early growth in visits highlights the success of early promotions in driving visits this year.
Once again, Chili’s Grill & Bar topped the Placer 100 Index, likely thanks to the ongoing popularity of the chain’s Big Smash Burger, 3 For Me value meal, and Triple Dipper offering. The chain’s even more remarkable visit growth in November was likely also due to Chili’s free Veteran’s Day meals to veterans and active duty personnel, which generated a 135.4% increase in visits on Monday, November 11th relative to the previous three Mondays’ average.
November’s Placer 100 Index winners also included several value-driven chains – such as Aldi’s, HomeGoods, and Crunch Fitness – as well luxury brands such as Nordstrom and Jared Jewelers – perhaps a testament to the still bifurcated consumer market.
Barnes & Noble also made the November 2024 top 10 list, with 13.0% overall visit growth and 9.8% more visits per location, on average, than in November 2023. The legacy book retailer, on an upward trajectory since 2021, has gained significant momentum this year – and the strong November numbers indicate that the company is headed into a promising holiday season.
The chain is seeing more than just impressive visit growth – since November 2023, the share of visitors coming to Barnes & Noble from their home location or headed straight home after a trip to the book retailer has also grown. This visitation pattern suggests that Barnes & Noble is becoming a primary destination for consumers rather than an incidental stop on the way to or from another errand – underscoring the chain’s restored relevance in the wider retail landscape.
Who will dominate the holiday season and top the Placer.ai 100 Retail & Dining Index in December 2024?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
After reaching new heights in October 2024, how did the office recovery fare in November? We dove into the data to find out.
In November 2024, visits to office buildings nationwide were 62.4% of what they were in November 2019, down from 66.7% in November 2023. This marks the most substantial drop in office foot traffic since January 2024 – and a sharp decline from October 2024.
But though significant, November’s downturn is likely a reflection of this year’s record-breaking Thanksgiving travel rather than of any real office recovery slowdown. Millions of Americans took to the skies and roads to spend the holiday with loved ones. And with remote work making it easier than ever before for professionals to plug in from virtually anywhere, many likely extended their trips without taking extra days off – leading to fewer office visits in the days leading up to the holiday.
Taking a look at regional trends, Miami continued to outshine other cities in November 2024, with visits at 84.0% of pre-pandemic levels – perhaps due in part to strict return-to-office (RTO) policies implemented by major players within the city’s growing tech and finance sector. New York came in second with recovery at 81.9%, while San Francisco continued to lag behind other major cities. But with major projects like the September 2024 grand opening of the revamped Transamerica Pyramid set to revitalize the city’s Financial District, more accelerated recovery may be ahead for this West Coast hub.
Indeed, San Francisco was among November 2024’s regional leaders for year over year (YoY) office visit growth. Nationwide, office building foot traffic was down 6.5% YoY. But in San Francisco, visits increased 1.6% – likely bolstered by recent RTO mandates from major local employers like Salesforce. The city’s temperate climate may also have played a role in encouraging residents to stay local for the holidays. Miami, too – a popular holiday destination in its own right – saw visits increase 1.7% YoY.
Denver, meanwhile, experienced its fourth snowiest November on record, which may have contributed to a larger portion of its workforce embracing remote work during the month – and an 11.3% YoY visit decline. And in New York, extended “workcations” by remote-capable finance employees, as well as potential disruptions in public transit and increased congestion during the holiday season, may have fueled a larger-than-average drop. Given the Big Apple’s strong overall recovery trajectory, we will likely see a rebound to more robust YoY growth by January, when the holiday season winds down.
While Thanksgiving travel created a temporary headwind for office recovery, cities like Miami and San Francisco demonstrate that the story is far from uniform. And looking ahead to the coming months, the office recovery still appears poised to continue apace.
For more data-driven office recovery analyses, follow Placer.ai.
Following weaker foot traffic performances in September and October, mall visits swung positive in November: Indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls received year-over-year (YoY) visit boosts of 6.4%, 4.8%, and 3.8%, respectively. The strong YoY growth across all mall types underscores the continued attraction of brick-and-mortar retail – particularly during the holiday season.
While much of the November boost is likely due to the malls’ strong Black Friday performance, foot traffic data indicates that early deals also drove visits before the big day: Comparing daily visits during the week before Black Friday (from Friday November 22nd to Wednesday November 27th) to visits during the equivalent days in 2023 (November 17th to 22nd 2023) reveals that malls received more pre-Black Friday mall visits this year than in 2023.
This willingness to shop ahead of Black Friday instead of waiting for the best deals on the day itself may highlight the effectiveness of retailers’ early promotions– or it could signal the readiness of some consumers to spend more freely this holiday season.
Still, despite the positive pre-Black Friday showing, the majority of the November visit boost can likely be attributed to malls’ impressive Black Friday Performance. All three formats saw YoY visit growth over Black Friday weekend, with open-air shopping centers seeing the largest visit increases – foot traffic for this sub-category was up 6.0% compared to Black Friday weekend 2023. In fact, this year’s Black Friday numbers were so strong that visits to indoor malls and open-air shopping centers even exceeded pre-pandemic Black Friday weekend.
These numbers reveal that, despite the rise in early Black Friday deals and online shopping, many consumers still want to experience the excitement of Black Friday bargain hunting in person. And this powerful kickoff to the 2024 holiday season indicates that the unique experiential offering of malls – combining shopping, dining, and entertainment all under one roof – continue to play a central role in the wider retail landscape.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Grabbing a coffee or snack at a convenience store is a time-honored road trip tradition – but increasingly, Convenience Stores (C-Stores) have also emerged as places people go out of their way to visit.
Convenience stores have thrived in recent years, making inroads into the discretionary dining space and growing both their audiences and their sales. Between April 2023 and March 2024, C-Stores experienced consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, generally outperforming Overall Retail. Unsurprisingly, C-Stores fell behind Overall Retail in November and December 2023, when holiday shoppers flocked to malls and superstores to buy gifts for loved ones. But in January 2024, the segment regained its lead, growing YoY visits even as Overall Retail languished in the face of an Arctic blast that had many consumers hunkering down at home.
C-Stores’ current strength is partially due to the significant innovation by leading players in the space: Chains like Casey’s, Maverik, Buc-ee’s, and Rutter’s are investing in both in their product offerings and in their physical venues to transform the humble C-Store from a stop along the way into a bona fide destination. Dive into the data to explore some of the key strategies helping C-Stores drive consumer engagement and stay ahead of the pack.
While chain expansion may explain some of the C-Store segment growth, a look at visit-per-location trends shows that demand is growing at the store level as well. Over the past year (April 2023 to March 2024), average visits per location on an industry-wide basis grew by 1.8%, compared to the year prior (April 2022 to 2023).
And within this growing segment, some brands are distinguishing themselves and outperforming category averages. Casey’s, for example, saw the average number of visits to each of its locations increase by 2.3% over the same time frame – while Maverik, Buc-ee’s and Rutter’s saw visits per location increase by 3.2%, 3.4% and 3.9%, respectively.
Each in its own way, Casey’s, Maverik, Buc-ee’s, and Rutter’s, are helping to transform C-Stores from pit stops where people can stretch their legs and grab a cup of coffee to destinations in and of themselves.
Midwestern gas and c-store chain Casey’s – famous for its breakfast pizza and other grab-and-go breakfast items – has emerged as a prime spot for fast food pizza lovers to grab a slice first thing in the morning. And Salt Lake City, Utah-based Maverik – which recently acquired Kum & Go and its 400-plus stores – is also establishing itself as a breakfast destination thanks to its specialty burritos and other chef-inspired creations.
Casey’s and Maverik’s popular breakfast options are likely helping the chains receive its larger-than-average share of morning visits: In Q1 2024, 16.3% of visits to Maverik and 17.5% of visits to Casey’s took place during the 7:00 AM - 10:00 AM daypart, compared to just 14.9% of visits to the wider C-Store category.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – also suggests that Casey’s and Maverik’s have opened stores in locations that allow them to reach their target audience. Compared to the average consumer, residents of Casey’s potential market are 7% more likely to be “Fast Food Pizza Lovers” than both the average consumer and the average C-Store trade area resident. Residents of Maverik’s potential market are 16% more likely than the average consumer to be “Mexican Food Enthusiasts,” compared to residents of the average C-Store’s trade area who are only 1% more likely to fall into that category.
With both chains expanding, Casey’s and Maverik can hope to introduce new audiences to their unique breakfast options and solidify their hold over the morning daypart within the C-Store space over the next few years.
Everything is said to be bigger in the Lone Star State, and Texas-based convenience store chain Buc-ee’s – holder of the record for the worlds’ largest C-Store – is no exception. With a unique array of specialty food items and award-winning bathrooms, Buc-ee’s has emerged as a well-known tourist attraction. And the popular chain’s status as a visitor hotspot is reflected in two key metrics.
First, Buc-ee’s attracts a much greater share of weekend visits than other convenience store chains. In Q1 2024, 39.6% of visits to Buc-ee’s took place on the weekends, compared to just 28.3% for the wider C-Store industry. And second, Buc-ee’s captured markets feature higher-than-average shares of family-centric households – including those belonging to Experian: Mosaic’s Suburban Style, Flourishing Families, and Promising Families segments.
Rather than merely a place to stop on the way to work, Buc-ee’s has emerged as a favored destination for families and for people looking for something fun to do on their days off.
Buc-ee’s isn’t the only C-Store chain that believes bigger is better. Pennsylvania-based Rutter’s is increasing visits and customer dwell time by expanding its footprint – both in terms of store count and venue size. New stores will be 10,000 to 12,000 square feet – significantly larger than the industry average of around 3,100 square feet. And in more urban areas, where space is at a premium, the company is building upwards.
Rutter’s added a second floor to one of its existing locations in York, PA in December 2023. The remodel, which was met with enthusiasm by customers, provided additional seating for up to 30 diners, a beer cave, and an expanded wine selection. And in Q1 2024, the location experienced 15.6% YoY visit growth – compared to a chainwide average of 7.6%. Visitors to the newly remodeled Rutter’s also stayed significantly longer than they did pre-renovation. The share of extended visits to the store (longer than ten minutes) grew from 20.8% in Q1 2023 to 27.0% in Q1 2024 – likely from people browsing the chain’s selection of beers or grabbing a bite to eat.
Convenience stores are flourishing, transforming into some of the most exciting dining and tourist destinations in the country. Today, C-Store customers can expect to find brisket sandwiches, gourmet coffees, or craft beers, rather than the stale cups of coffee of old. And the data shows that customers are receptive to these innovations, helping drive the segment’s success.
The first quarter of 2024 was generally a good one for retailers. Though unusually cold and stormy weather left its mark on the sector’s January performance, February and March saw steady year-over-year (YoY) weekly visit growth that grew more robust as the quarter wore on.
March ended on a high note, with the week of March 25th – including Easter Sunday – seeing a 6.1% YoY visit boost, driven in part by increased retail activity in the run-up to the holiday. (Last year, Easter fell on April 9th, 2023, so the week of March 25th is being compared to a regular week.)
Though prices remain high and consumer confidence has yet to fully regain its footing, retail’s healthy Q1 showing may be a sign of good things to come in 2024.
Drilling down into the data for leading retail segments demonstrates the continued success of value-priced, essential, and wellness-related categories.
Discount & Dollar Stores led the pack with 11.2% YoY quarterly visit growth, followed by Grocery Stores, Fitness, and Superstores – all of which outperformed Overall Retail. Dining also enjoyed a YoY quarterly visit bump, despite the segment’s largely discretionary nature. And despite the high interest rates continuing to weigh on the housing and home renovation markets, Home Improvement & Furnishings maintained just a minor YoY visit gap.
Discount & Dollar Stores experienced strong YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – and as go-to destinations for groceries and other other essential goods, they held their own even during mid-January’s Arctic blast. In the last week of March, shoppers flocked to leading discount chains for everything from chocolate Easter bunnies to basket-making supplies – driving a remarkable 21.5% YoY visit spike.
Dollar General continued to dominate the Discount & Dollar Store space in Q1, with visits to its locations accounting for nearly half of the segment’s quarterly foot traffic (44.7%). Next in line was Dollar Tree, followed by Family Dollar and Five Below. Together, the four chains – all of which experienced positive YoY quarterly visit growth – drew a whopping 91.6% of quarterly visits to the category.
Rain or shine, people have to eat. And like Discount & Dollar Stores, traditional Grocery Stores were relatively busy through January as shoppers braved the storms to stock up on needed items. Momentum continued to build throughout the quarter, culminating in a 10.5% foot traffic increase in the week ending with Easter Sunday.
Like in other categories, it was budget-friendly Grocery banners that took the lead. No-frills Aldi drove a chain-wide 24.4% foot traffic increase in Q1, by expanding its fleet – while also growing the average number of visits per location. Other value-oriented chains, including Trader Joe’s and Food Lion, experienced significant foot traffic increases of their own. And though conventional grocery leaders like H-E-B, Kroger, and Albertsons saw smaller visit bumps, they too outperformed Q1 2023 by meaningful margins.
January is New Year’s resolution season – when people famously pick themselves up off the couch, dust off their trainers, and vow to go to the gym more often. And with wellness still top of mind for many consumers, the Fitness category enjoyed robust YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – despite lapping a strong Q1 2023.
Predictably, Fitness’s visit growth slowed during the last week of March, when many Americans likely indulged in Easter treats rather than work out. But given the category’s strength over the past several years, there is every reason to believe it will continue to flourish.
For Fitness chains, too, cost was key to success in Q1 – with value gyms experiencing the biggest visit jumps. EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, both of which offer low-cost membership options, saw their Q1 visits skyrocket 28.9% and 22.0% YoY, respectively – helped in part by aggressive expansions. At the same time, premium and mid-range gyms like Life Time and LA Fitness are also finding success – showing that when it comes to Fitness, there’s plenty of room for a variety of models to thrive.
Superstores – including wholesale clubs – are prime destinations for big, planned shopping expeditions – during which customers can load up on a month’s supply of food items or stock up on home goods. And perhaps for this reason, the category felt the impact of January’s inclement weather more than either dollar chains or supermarkets – which are more likely to see shoppers pop in as needed for daily essentials.
But like Grocery Stores and Discount & Dollar Stores, Superstores ended the quarter with an impressive YoY visit spike, likely fueled by Easter holiday shoppers.
As in Q4 2023, membership warehouse chains – Costco Wholesale, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club – drove much of the Superstore category’s positive visit growth, as shoppers likely engaged in mission-driven shopping in an effort to stretch their budgets. Still, segment mainstays Walmart and Target also enjoyed positive foot traffic growth, with YoY visits up 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively.
Moving into more discretionary territory, Dining experienced a marked January slump, as hunkered-down consumers likely opted for delivery. But the segment rallied in February and March, even though foot traffic dipped slightly during the last week of March, when many families gathered to enjoy home-cooked holiday meals.
Coffee Chains and Fast-Casual Restaurants saw the largest YoY visit increases, followed by QSR – highlighting the enduring power of lower-cost, quick-serve dining options. But Full-Service Restaurants (FSR) also saw a slight segment-wide YoY visit uptick in Q1 – good news for a sector that has yet to bounce back from the one-two punch of COVID and inflation. Within each Dining category, however, some chains experienced outsize visit growth – including favorites like Dutch Bros. Coffee, Slim Chickens, In-N-Out Burger, and Texas Roadhouse.
Since the shelter-in-place days of COVID – when everybody had their sourdough starter and DIY was all the rage – Home Improvement & Furnishings chains have faced a tough environment. Many deferred or abandoned home improvement projects in the wake of inflation, and elevated interest rates coupled with a sluggish housing market put a further damper on the category.
Against this backdrop, Home Improvement & Furnishings’ relatively lackluster Q1 visit performance should come as no surprise. But the narrowing of the visit gap in March – which also saw one week of positive visit growth – may serve as a promising sign for the segment. (The abrupt foot traffic drop during the week of March 25th, 2024 is likely a just reflection of Easter holiday shopping pattern.)
Within the Home Improvement & Furnishings space, some bright spots stood out in Q1 – including Harbor Freight Tools, which saw visits increase by 10.0%, partly due to the brand’s growing store count. Tractor Supply Co., Menards, and Ace Hardware also registered visit increases.
January 2024’s stormy weather left its mark on the Q1 retail environment, especially for discretionary categories. But as the quarter progressed, retailers rallied, with healthy YoY foot traffic growth that peaked during the last week of March – the week of Easter Sunday. All in all, retail’s positive Q1 performance leaves plenty of room for optimism about what’s in store for the rest of 2024.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Over the past year, Fast-Casual & Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) chains have thrived, consistently outperforming the Full-Service Dining segment with positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth every quarter since 2023. In this white paper, we dive into the data for leading dining chains to take a closer look at what’s driving visitors to the QSR segment and what other dining categories can learn from fast-food’s success.
One of the key factors separating QSR chains – aptly known as “fast food” – from the rest of the dining industry is the speed at which diners can get a ready-to-eat meal in their hands. And within the QSR space, speed of service is one of the ways chains differentiate themselves from their competition.
Leading fast-food chains are investing heavily in technologies and systems designed to help them serve customers ever more quickly:
Taco Bell’s “Touch Display Kitchen System” is designed to optimize cooking operations and improve wait times, while the chain’s Go Mobile restaurant format seeks to alleviate bottlenecks in the drive-thru lane. Chick-fil-A also has dedicated channels for quick mobile order pick-up and is planning four-lane drive-thrus with second-floor kitchens to get meals out even faster. And to save time at the drive-thru, Wendy’s is experimenting with generative AI and developing an underground, robotic system to deliver digital orders to designated parking spots within seconds.
And location intelligence shows that all three chains are succeeding in reducing customer wait times. Over the past four years, Taco Bell, Chick-fil-A, and Wendy’s have seen steady increases in the share of visits to their venues lasting less than 10 minutes.
The data also suggests that investment in speed of service can increase overall visitation to QSR venues.
In late 2022, McDonald’s opened a to-go-only location outside of Dallas, TX with a lane dedicated to mobile order fulfillment via a conveyor belt. And in Q1 2024, this venue not only had a larger share of short visits compared to the other McDonald’s locations in the region, but also more visits compared to the McDonald’s average visits per venue in the Dallas-Fort Worth CBSA.
This provides further support for the power of fast order fulfillment to drive QSR visits, with customers motivated by the prospect of getting in and out quickly.
The success of the fast-food segment is even driving other restaurants to borrow typical QSR formats – especially during time slots when people are most likely to grab a bite to eat on the go.
In September 2023, full-service leader Applebee’s opened a new format: a fast casual location focusing on To Go orders in Deer Park, NY, featuring pick-up lockers for digital orders and limited dine-in options without table service.
And the new format is already attracting outsized weekday and lunchtime crowds. In Q1 2024, 20.5% of visits to the chain’s To Go venue took place during the 12:00 PM - 2:00 PM time slot, while the average Applebee’s in the New York-Newark-Jersey City CBSA received less than 10% of its daily visits during that daypart. The new restaurant also drew a significantly higher share of weekday visits than other nearby venues.
This suggests that takeaway-focused venues could help full-service chains grow their visit share during weekdays and the coveted lunch rush, when consumers may be less inclined to have a sit-down meal.
An additional factor contributing to QSR and Fast Casual success in 2024 may be the rise of chicken-based chains. Chicken is a versatile ingredient that has remained relatively affordable, which could be contributing to its growing popularity and the rapid expansion of several chicken chains.
Comparing the relative visit share (not including delivery) of various sub-segments within the wider Fast Casual & QSR space showed that the share of visits to chains with chicken-based menus has increased steadily between 2019 and 2023: In Q1 2024, 15.3% of Fast Casual & QSR visits were to a chicken restaurant concept, compared to just 13.4% in Q1 2019.
The strength of chicken-based concepts is also evident when comparing average visits per venue at leading chicken chains with the wider Fast Casual & QSR average.
Both Chick-fil-A, the nation’s predominant chicken chain, and Raising Cane’s, a rapidly expanding player in the fast-food chicken space, are receiving significantly more visits per venue than their Fast Casual & QSR peers: In Q1 2024, Raising Cane’s and Chick-fil-A restaurants saw an average of 153.0% and 237.7% more visits per venue, respectively, compared to the combined Fast Casual & QSR industries average.
The elevated traffic at chicken chains likely plays a part in their profitability per restaurant relative to other Fast Casual & QSR concepts with more sizable fleets.
QSR and Fast-Casual chains are also particularly adept at generating seasonal visit spikes through unique Limited Time Offers and holiday promotions adapted to the calendar.
Arby’s recently launched a 2 for $6 sandwich promotion on February 1st, with two of the three sandwich options on promotion being fish-based in an apparent attempt to entice diners eschewing meat in observance of Lent. The company also brought back a specialty fish sandwich, likely with the goal of further appealing to the Lent-observing demographic.
The offers seem to have driven significant traffic spikes, with foot traffic during the promotion period significantly higher than the January daily visit average. And traffic was particularly elevated during Lent – which this year fell on Wednesday, February 14th through Thursday, March 28th, with visits spiking on Fridays when those observing are most likely to seek out fish-based meals.
Some of the elevated visits in the second half of Q1 may be attributed to the comparison to a weaker January across the dining segment. But the success of the fish-forward promotion specifically during Lent suggests that the company’s calendar-appropriate LTO played a major role in driving visits to the chain.
Shorter-term promotions – even those lasting just a single day – can also drive major visit spikes.
Since 1991, White Castle has transformed its fast-food restaurants into a reservation-only, “fine-dining” experience for dinner on Valentine's Day. In 2024, Valentine’s Day fell on a Wednesday, and White Castle’s sit-down event drove a 11.8% visit increase relative to the average Wednesday in Q1 2024 and a 3.9% visit increase compared to the overall Q1 2024 daily average.
The elevated visit numbers over Valentine’s Day are even more impressive when considering that a full-service dining room can accommodate fewer visitors than the drive-thrus and counter service of White Castle’s typical QSR configuration. The spike in February 14th visits may also be attributed to an increased number of diners showing up throughout the day to take in the Valentine’s Day buzz.
QSR and Fast-Casual dining are having a moment. And the data shows that a combination of factors – including fast and efficient service, the rising popularity of chicken-based dining concepts, and effective LTOs – are all playing a part in the categories’ recent success.
