.svg)
Affecting everything from merchandise sales to local bars to entire neighborhoods, the economic effect of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ road to the World Series cannot be disputed.
After a comeback from 5-0 to win 7-6 against the New York Yankees, the Dodgers kept everyone on the edge of their seats. With history made by Freddie Freeman’s walk-off grand slam to win Game 1, fans will have moments seared in their memories for decades to come. Dodgers fans are willing to shell out big to celebrate their champions. Fanatics reported that after winning Wednesday night, “the Dodgers set a Fanatics sales record for first-hour sales of a team's merchandise, across any sport, after claiming a championship.” The top five players for merchandise sales were Ohtani, Freeman, Betts, Yamamoto, and Kershaw.
Local bars in various parts of L.A. that featured Dodgers games saw an uptick in year-over-year traffic most weeks, particularly in recent weeks leading up to the National League Championship and the World Series. Spontaneous parades erupted in locations such as Whittier Blvd in East L.A., in Downtown L.A., and near Dodger Stadium in Elysian Park.
We’ve previously written about the Shohei Effect on hotels like the Miyako that features the mural “LA Rising” by Robert Vargas, but now after a World Series championship, the Boys in Blue are set to go even higher into the stratosphere of fandom. We looked at the foot traffic to Dodger Stadium and to Little Tokyo, and no surprise there’s definitely an uptick to the latter on game days, especially on Saturdays. Vargas is currently working on a mural of the late Fernando Valenzuela in Boyle Heights, and Angelenos will likely be flocking in droves to come see “Fernandomania Forever” when it is unveiled.
One interesting finding is that visitation was actually higher during some of the regular season games than for the World Series Games 1 and 2 that took place in LA. One reason may be the sky high prices. Per reseller Ticket IQ, “the average price for a World Series ticket on the secondary market was $3,887, the second most expensive average since it started tracking data in 2010.” For some fans, it was a dream of a lifetime, one that some were willing to “sell a kidney” to attend.
As we enter November, the holiday season is already in full swing across the country. We’re likely to see the consumer’s embrace of seasonal decorations soon, just as we saw in the fall season. The retail industry has already lived through one major promotional event in October, and it’s time to take the temperature on physical retail foot traffic as we head into the busiest part of the season.
One thing that jumped out upon initial review was the foot traffic from department stores, excluding off-price retail. Looking at the four full weeks of October 2024, traffic to full line department stores was flat to last year, compared to the same period last year when traffic was down 8% to 2022 in October (store counts are about even to last year). Visits to luxury department stores show a similar story; traffic in 2023 was down 9% in October and trended down 2% this year. Coming from a sector of retail that has been challenged for years, this slight improvement is worthy of celebration.
Just how important is October’s contribution to holiday shopping visits? For full line department stores, October accounted for 22% of total holiday season visits in both 2022 and 2023; October traffic for luxury department stores was 24% of total holiday traffic in 2022 and 23% in 2023. That means that there’s still almost ¾ of total visitation still left for retailers to capture over the next two months. However, with traffic trending better in 2024 than in 2023 for department stores overall, this year might actually be a proof point for pull forward holiday demand.
Looking at visitation by retailers within the two sectors, Dillard’s, unsurprisingly led the charge for full line department stores in visitation growth. JCPenney also saw a lot of trend improvement compared to last year, as did Macy’s in the back half of the month. The only major retailer that has underperformed 2023 in October was Kohl’s. Through the lens of luxury department stores, Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom grew traffic in the low to mid-single digits in October, with Neiman Marcus only down slightly to 2023 levels.
Another interesting insight Placer’s data uncovered; department stores are more of a destination for consumers this year. Looking at Macy’s cross-visitation specifically in October, the percent of visitors to Macy’s that traveled home after visiting was almost 50 basis points higher than in 2023. Our data also showed a lower percentage of cross visitation between Macy’s and other department stores this year compared to last October. Department stores may be doing a better job of capturing consumers' attention and better aligning themselves with the needs of their shoppers. This is in contrast of what we're seeing in essential retail categories such as grocery stores and superstores, where consumers are willing to cross shop multiple retailers; this underscores just how different consumer behavior is by category.
What does this signal about the remainder of the “true” holiday season? It’s hard to tell as we stand today, but the trend improvement across department stores this year gives us some optimism about consumers flocking to physical stores this year. But, it’s important to give consumers a reason to visit as many times as possible, especially as retail fatigue sets in from shopping earlier in the season. Value is still going to be the top driver of visitation this year, but unique products, services and experiences are still important to capturing the joy of the season.
If you’ve ever wished you could root for your alma mater from afar, attend a World Series, or blast into space, Cosm may have the solution. This immersive technology company combines state-of-the art stadium experiences with dining and bar service. Think a smaller version of the Sphere, a larger version of an IMAX theater, with the simulation of being at an actual stadium all while enjoying the comforts of a booth with food brought to you.
For fans of large screen immersive experiences, this venue allows you to be enveloped by the aquatic performers of Cirque du Soleil's “O”, feel like you’re on the 50-yard line for the Ohio State versus Penn State football game, or be a pioneering astronaut seeing the earth from space in “Orbital.”
Since it opened at the end of June this year, popular showings have included “Seek,” which takes you on a journey through the cosmos, as well as sports favorites like the New York Jets versus Pittsburgh Steelers game. Game 2 of the World Series had a sell-out crowd as those who chose not to buy tickets for thousands of dollars still had the joy of celebrating in an arena venue with hundreds of other fans, with the feeling of being behind the dugout.
The Los Angeles Times describes Cosm as “part planetarium, part mini-Sphere,” so instead of needing to travel to Griffith Observatory or Las Vegas, one can just jet down the 405 to Inglewood to have a similar experience. So, who’s visiting Cosm? Roughly 3 in 10 (29%) have a hold income (HHI) of $50K-$99.9K. Nearly 1 in 5 (19%) have a HHI of $25K-$49.9K. These two household income segments over index compared to the CA household incomes (shown in gray).
In terms of demographics, per Spatial.ai PersonaLive, Near-Urban Diverse Families, Educated Urbanites, and Melting Pot Families make up the top 3 segments.
Starbucks, the largest coffee chain in the world, and Dutch Bros, one of the fastest growing in the country, are major players in the hot and cold beverage space. With Q3 2024 in the rearview mirror, we took a closer look at the visitation patterns to both chains to see how they are faring – and what might lie ahead for both brands.
Starbucks is one of the most dominant names in coffee across the world, with thousands of stores in the United States alone. Between July 2023 and July 2024, the chain added more than 500 stores to its domestic fleet, bringing its U.S. store count to 16,730. And though Starbucks has faced its share of challenges, these store additions helped keep overall traffic to the coffee leader on par with 2023 levels throughout the summer – though visits dipped somewhat in September as consumers went back to their routines.
But digging deeper into the visit data shows that even as Starbucks saw overall foot traffic growth stall in Q3, the number of short visits to the chain – i.e. those lasting less than 10 minutes – increased. In August and September 2024, the chain drew 8.5% and 4.7% more short visits, respectively, than in the same periods of 2023 – revealing how important these quick stops are for the chain.
In-app ordering, which together with drive-thru orders made up about 70% of sales at the chain as of January 2024, may be contributing to the short visit trend. Still, new CEO Brian Niccol is looking for ways to return the chain to its roots as the third place, and the chain may yet implement shifts to encourage longer visits in the coming months.
Dutch Bros has been one of the most impressive coffee chains to watch over the past few years. The Oregon-based chain has been on an expansion tear – opening more than 150 stores between Q2 2023 and Q2 2024 – and has seen the elevated monthly visits to match. Between June and September 2024, visits to Dutch Bros increased between 13.7% and 16.9%, highlighting the chain’s success at growing its audience.
But like at Starbucks, short visits outperformed longer ones at Dutch Bros – and by a lot. In September 2024, for example, overall visits to the chain grew by 13.7% – but visits lasting less than 10 minutes shot up by 26.6%.
The strength of these short visits, for both Starbucks and Dutch Bros, suggests a shift towards convenience, with both chains utilizing drive-thru services and in-app ordering to accommodate busy consumers.
Digging down deeper into the data shows that for both Starbucks and Dutch Bros, these all-important short visits follow a distinct weekly pattern.
While longer visits (≥10 minutes) to both chains peaked in Q3 2024 on Saturdays, shorter visits were more evenly distributed throughout the week, peaking on Fridays. Overall, 34.1% of long visits to Starbucks, and 37.8% of long visits to Dutch Bros, took place on the weekends in Q3 2024 – compared to 28.1% and and 28.7%, respectively, for shorter visits.
Unsurprisingly, customers may be more likely to grab a quick coffee to go during the work week. And with the return to office still underway, quick visits may be enjoying a boost fueled by commuters in need of a quick cubicle pick-me-up.
As Starbucks works to adapt to shifting consumer preferences, understanding when customers spend more time in-store can help the brand reconnect with its roots as a community hub. And Dutch Bros can continue to enhance the quick-service experience that has fueled its growth. How will the two chains continue to perform in what remains a competitive coffee environment?
Follow Placer.ai for the latest data-driven dining insights.
In recent years, Americans have gotten serious about fitness. Even as consumers tightened their purse strings, they found room in their budgets for the ultimate affordable indulgence: A (relatively) low-cost gym membership that, once paid, offers customers unlimited access to club facilities.
How did Planet Fitness, the nation’s largest value gym perform in Q3 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Planet Fitness has been on a roll. In Q2 2024, the chain reported a 4.2% system-wide increase in same store sales and the addition of 18 new gyms to its fleet. (Though Planet Fitness operates clubs outside the U.S., the vast majority of its some 2600 locations are domestic).
Foot traffic data shows that the chain continued to thrive through Q3, with year-over-year (YoY) monthly visit upticks ranging from 4.1% to 11.6% – outperforming the wider industry. And while the value gym giant finally raised the price of its basic membership this summer for the first time in more than thirty years, the move does not seem to have dented Planet Fitness’ growth trajectory – though it’s still early days.
Planet Fitness takes pains to emphasize its commitment to being a “Judgement Free Zone” – and casual gym-goers make up a significant portion of its visitor base. In Q3 2024, 44.3% of visitors hit the club, on average, less than twice a month.
But Planet Fitness also has a significant – and growing – share of die-hard gym buffs who visit the club at least eight or ten times a month - i.e. at least twice a week. In Q3 2024, a full 16.8% of visitors to Planet Fitness came to the gym at least eight times a month on average – up from just 12.9% in 2019 and 15.3% in 2022. And 11.9% visited the chain ten or more times a month – up from 8.6% in 2019 and 10.6% in 2022.
Though casual visitors are also important for any fitness club’s bottom line, a strong and thriving community of highly committed members is an important foundation for future growth.
Gym visit frequency, however, varies throughout the United States. Analyzing the share of highly committed visitors to Planet Fitness reveals significant differences between states.
New Mexico led the pack in Q3 with 13.9% of visitors frequenting the gym, on average, at least ten times a month – followed by Rhode Island (13.1%) and California (12.7%). On the other end of the spectrum lay Montana, where just 6.0% of club goers were highly committed visitors in Q3, followed by Iowa (7.7%) and Vermont (8.0%).
This data highlights how gym engagement can be influenced by regional factors such as lifestyle, climate, and access to alternative fitness options – suggesting that Planet Fitness and similar chains may benefit from tailoring their marketing and membership strategies to local trends and preferences.
The holiday season isn’t a particularly busy one for gyms – which usually see traffic begin to slow down in September before picking up again in the new year. But if Planet Fitness’ solid September 2024 performance is any indication, the chain may be in for a busier fourth quarter this year than last. Will Planet Fitness continue to deliver as the year draws to a close?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
In a market ruled by value and convenience, traditional full-service restaurants (FSRs) have faced an uphill slog. But even in 2024, some FSRs are flourishing. We dove into the data to explore factors driving success at three very different full-service chains: First Watch, Chili’s Grill & Bar, and Outback Steakhouse.
First Watch first burst onto the scene in 1983 with a single restaurant in California – and now boasts some 544 locations across 29 states. With offerings ranging from Superfood Kale Salads to more traditional pancakes and bacon and eggs, First Watch has emerged as a prime destination for diners seeking to enjoy a leisurely breakfast with family and friends.
And foot traffic data shows that First Watch, still firmly in expansion mode, is continuing to grow its audience. Between June and September 2024, First Watch saw consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, outperforming both the full-service restaurant category and other diners & breakfast spots.
One factor that may be helping to propel First Watch’s success is the relative affluence of its customer base. Analyzing the income breakdown of First Watch’s trade area shows that in Q3 2024, nearly ten percent (9.7%) of households in the chain’s captured market earned $200K+ per year, compared with 6.5% for diners & breakfast chains and 6.9% for the wider FSR space. On the flip side, only 43.9% of households in First Watch’s captured market had annual incomes below $75K, compared to just over 50.0% for both analyzed segments.
Amidst concerns surrounding food inflation, rising labor costs, and discretionary spending cutbacks, First Watch’s wealthier customer base may be helping to shield it from some of the value pressures that have weighed on other restaurants – contributing to its resilience.
Another FSR that has been experiencing outsized visit growth this year – at least since April – is Chili’s Grill & Bar. Following a tepid start to the year, Chili’s launched its much-vaunted Big Smasher Burger on April 29th, 2024, and hasn’t looked back since.
The new offering, added to Chili’s 3 For Me value menu, presented a full-service value challenge to QSR favorites like the Big Mac. And in Q2 2023, the item helped drive a 14.8% increase in same-store sales.
Since the big launch, weekly YoY visits to Chili’s have been consistently elevated – kept aloft with the help of viral hype around Chili’s long standing Triple Dipper offering, as well as the new secret Nashville Hot Mozz offering that became so popular it spawned a halloween costume.
Unlike First Watch, Chili’s has found success by embracing its role as a value chain. The median household income (HHI) of Chili’s captured market in Q3 2024 was $73.1K – below the nationwide median of $76.1K, and on par with that of the wider FSR space ($73.7K – By way of comparison, the median HHI of First Watch’s captured market was $85.6K in Q3).
And a closer look at the demographic make-up of Chili’s captured market shows just how broad the appeal of the chain is. In Q3 2024, Chili’s visitor base was over-represented for a wide range of segments across age and income groups – from “Wealthy Suburban Families” to “Young Urban Singles”, “Suburban Boomers’, and residents of “Blue Collar Suburbs”. By delivering high-quality meals at affordable prices, Chili’s has solidified its place as an everyman’s chain, offering value comparable to that of quick-service restaurants.
Aussie-themed Outback Steakhouse – Bloomin’ Brands’ biggest chain – is another full-service restaurant that is successfully weathering the storm. Like other FSRs, Outback has faced its fair share of challenges over the past few years, with rising costs and spending cutbacks taking a toll on the chain’s performance. But in Q3 2024, the average number of visits to each Outback Steakhouse location increased 0.5% YoY, even as overall traffic to the chain fell 1.7% in the wake of strategic rightsizing moves that included the shuttering of a number of underperforming locations. By contrast, the average number of visits per location in the wider FSR space dropped 1.2%, while overall foot traffic to the segment fell 2.1%. Outback Steakhouse’s ability to sustain a YoY visit-per-location uptick in Q3, even if a minor one, shows that its rightsizing efforts are paying off.
And drilling down deeper into regional data for the chain shows that in some areas of the country, Outback Steakhouse is positively thriving. In California, Outback’s third-largest market in terms of store count, the chain saw a YoY visit increase of 5.3% – significantly higher than the statewide FSR average of 1.1%. In Washington and Oregon, Outback Steakhouse experienced even more substantial visit increases – 9.0% and 9.6%, respectively – even as full-service restaurants generally languished. And in all three states, the number of Outback Steakhouse locations has remained basically unchanged over the past year, meaning that these increases reflect the growing draw of the chain’s existing venues.
First Watch, Chili’s Grill & Bar, and Outback Steakhouse are very different full-service chains – but each of them is thriving in its own way. How will the three brands fare as the holiday season picks up steam?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven dining analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Note: This report is based on an analysis of visitation patterns for regional and nationwide grocery chains and does not include single-location stores.
Grocery stores, superstores, and dollar stores all carry food products – and American consumers buy groceries at all three. But even in today’s crowded food retail environment, traditional grocery chains have a special role to play. With their primary focus on stocking a wide variety of fresh foods, these chains serve a critical function in offering consumers access to healthy options.
But visualizing the footprints of major grocery chains across the continental U.S. – alongside those of discount & dollar stores – shows that the geographical distribution of grocery chains remains uneven.
In some areas, including parts of the Northeast, Midwest, South Atlantic, and Pacific regions, grocery chains are plentiful. But in others – some with population centers large enough to feature a robust dollar store presence – they remain in short supply.
And though many superstore locations also provide a full array of grocery offerings, they, too, are often sparsely represented in areas with low concentrations of grocery chains.
For grocery chain operators seeking to expand, these underserved grocery markets can present a significant opportunity. And for civic stakeholders looking to broaden access to healthy food across communities, these areas highlight a policy challenge. For both groups, identifying underserved markets with significant untapped demand can be a critical first step in deciding where to focus grocery development initiatives.
This white paper dives into the location analytics to examine grocery store availability across the United States – and harnesses these insights to explore potential demand in some underserved markets. The report focuses on locations belonging to regional or nationwide grocery chains, rather than single-location stores.
Last year, grocery chains accounted for 43.4% of nationwide visits to food retailers – including grocery chains, superstores, and discount & dollar stores. But drilling down into the data for different areas of the country reveals striking regional variation – offering a glimpse into the variability of grocery store access throughout the U.S. In some states, grocery stores attract the majority of visit share to food retailers, while in others, dollar stores or superstores dominate the scene.
The ten states where residents were most likely to visit grocery chains in early 2024 – Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Massachusetts, California, Maryland, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island – were all on the East or West Coasts. In these states, as well as in Nevada and New York, grocery chain visits accounted for 50.0% or more of food retail visits between January and April 2024.
Meanwhile, residents of many West North Central and South Central states were much less likely to do their food shopping at grocery chains. In North Dakota, for example, grocery chain visits accounted for just 11.7% of visits to food retailers over the analyzed period. And in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, too, grocery stores drew less than 20.0% of the overall food retail foot traffic.
But low grocery store visit share does not necessarily indicate a lack of consumer interest or ability to support such stores. And in some of these underserved regions, existing grocery chains are seeing outsize visit growth – indicating growing demand for their offerings.
North Dakota, the state with the smallest share of visits going to grocery chains in early 2024, experienced a 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in grocery visits during the same period – nearly double the nationwide baseline of 5.7%. Other states with low grocery visit share, including Nebraska, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico, also experienced higher-than-average YoY grocery chain visit growth. This suggests significant untapped potential for grocery stores and a market that is hungry for more.
Alabama is one state where grocery chains accounted for a relatively small share of overall food retail foot traffic in early 2024 (just 28.9%) – but where YoY visit growth outperformed the nationwide average. And digging down even further into local grocery store visitation trends provides further evidence that at least in some places, low grocery visit share may be due to inadequate supply, rather than insufficient demand.
In Central Alabama, for example, many residents drive at least 10 miles to reach a local grocery chain. And several parts of the state, both rural and urban, feature clusters of grocery stores that draw customers from relatively far away.
But zooming in on YoY visitation data for local grocery chain locations shows that at least some of these areas likely harbor untapped demand. Take for example the Camden, Butler, Thomasville, and Gilbertown areas (circled in the map above). The Piggly Wiggly location in Butler, AL, drew 40.1% of visits from 10 or more miles away. The same store experienced a 23.3% YoY increase in visits in early 2024 – far above the statewide baseline of 6.6%. Meanwhile, the Super Foods location in Thomasville, AL, which drew 52.8% of visits from at least 10 miles away – experienced YoY visit growth of 12.3%. The Piggly Wiggly locations in Camden, AL and Gilbertown, AL saw similar trends.
At the same time, trade area analysis of the four locations reveals that the grocery stores had little to no trade area overlap during the analyzed period. Each store served specific areas, with minimal cannibalization among customer bases.
These metrics appear to highlight robust demand for grocery stores in the region – grocery visits are growing at a stronger rate than those in the overall state, people are willing to make the drive to these stores, and each one has little to no competition from the others.
While significant opportunity exists across the country, many communities still face considerable challenges in supporting large grocery stores. Though South Carolina has a significant number of grocery chain locations, for example, certain areas within the state have low access to food shopping opportunities. And one local government – Greenville County – is considering offering tax breaks to grocery stores that set up shop in the area, to improve local fresh food accessibility.
Placer.ai migration and visitation data shows that Greenville County is ripe for such initiatives: the county’s population grew by 4.8% over the past four years – with much of that increase a result of positive net migration. And YoY visits to Greenville County Grocery Stores have consistently outperformed state averages: In April 2024, grocery visits in the county grew by 6.1% YoY, while overall visits to grocery stores in South Carolina grew by 4.2%. This growth – both in terms of grocery visits and population – points to rising demand for grocery stores in Greenville County.
Analyzing the Greenville County grocery store trade areas with Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – offers further insight into local grocery shoppers’ particular demand and preferences.
Consumers in Greenville-area grocery store trade areas, for example, are more likely to be interested in “Mid-Range Grocery Stores” (including brands like Aldi, Kroger, and Lidl) than residents of grocery store trade areas in the state as a whole. This metric provides further evidence of local demand for grocery chains – and offers a glimpse into the kinds of specific grocery offerings likely to succeed in the area.
Grocery stores remain essential services for many consumers, providing a place to pick up fresh produce, meat, and other healthy food options. And many areas in the country are ripe for expansion, with eager customer bases and growing demand. Identifying such areas with location analytics can help both grocery store operators and municipal stakeholders provide their communities and customer bases with an enhanced grocery shopping experience that caters to local preferences.
Following COVID-era highs, domestic migration levels have begun to taper off – with the number of Americans moving within the U.S. hitting an all-time low, according to some sources, in 2023.
To be sure, some popular COVID-era destinations – including Idaho, the Carolinas, and Utah – saw their net domestic migration continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. But other states which had been relocation hotspots between February 2020 and February 2023, such as Wyoming and Texas, experienced negative net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Analyzing CBSA-level migration data reveals differences and similarities between last year’s migration patterns and COVID-era trends.
Between February 2020 and February 2023, seven out of the ten CBSAs posting the largest population increases due to inbound domestic migration were located in Florida. But between February 2023 and February 2024, the top 10 CBSAs with the largest net migrated percent of the population were significantly more diverse. Only four out of the ten CBSAs were located in Florida, and several new metro areas – including Provo-Orem, UT, Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA, and Boulder, CO – joined the list.
This white paper leverages a variety of location intelligence tools – including Placer.ai’s Migration Report, Niche Neighborhood Grades, and ACS Census Data location intelligence – to analyze two migration hotspots. Specifically, the report focuses on Daytona Beach, FL, which already appeared on the February 2020 to February 2023 list and has continued to see steady growth, and Boulder, CO, which has emerged as a new top destination. The data highlights the potential of CBSAs with unique value propositions to continue to attract newcomers despite ongoing housing headwinds.
The Boulder, CO CBSA has emerged as a domestic migration hotspot: The net influx of population between February 2023 and February 2024 (i.e. the total number of people that moved to Boulder from elsewhere in the U.S., minus those that left) constituted 3.1% of the CBSA’s February 2024 population.
The strong migration is partially due to the University of Colorado, Boulder’s growing popularity. But the metro area has also emerged as a flourishing tech hub, with Google, Apple, and Amazon all setting up shop in town, along with a wealth of smaller start ups.
Most domestic relocators tend to remain within state lines – so unsurprisingly, many of the recent newcomers to Boulder moved from other CBSAs in Colorado. But perhaps due to Boulder’s robust tech ecosystem, many of the new residents also came from Los Angeles, CA (6.6%) and San Francisco, CA (3.4%) – other CBSAs known for their thriving tech scenes.
At the same time, looking at the other CBSAs feeding migration to the area indicates that tech is likely not the only draw attracting people to Boulder: A significant share of relocators came from the CBSAs of Chicago, IL (6.1%), Dallas , TX (4.9%), and New York, NY (3.9%). The move from these relatively urbanized CBSAs to scenic Boulder indicates that some of the domestic migration to the area is likely driven by people looking for better access to nature or a general lifestyle change.
According to the U.S. News & World Report, Boulder ranked in second place in terms of U.S. cities with the best quality of life. Using Niche Neighborhood Grades to compare quality of life attributes in the Boulder CBSA and in the areas of origin dataset highlights some of the draw factors attracting newcomers to Boulder beyond the thriving tech scene.
The Boulder CBSA ranked higher than the metro areas of origin for “Public Schools,” “Health & Fitness,” “Fit for Families,” and “Access to Outdoor Activities.” These migration draw factors are likely helping Boulder attract more senior executives alongside younger tech workers – and can also explain why relocators from more urban metro areas may be choosing to make Boulder their home.
Boulder’s strong inbound migration numbers over the past year – likely driven by its flourishing tech scene and beautiful natural surroundings – reveal the growth potential of certain CBSAs regardless of wider housing market headwinds.
Florida experienced a population boom during the pandemic, and several CBSAs in the state – including the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL CBSA – have continued to welcome domestic relocators in high numbers. The CBSA’s anchor city, Daytona Beach – known for its Bike Week and NASCAR’s Daytona 500 – has also seen positive net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Americans planning for retirement or retirees operating on a fixed income are likely particularly interested in optimizing their living expenses. And given Daytona’s relative affordability, it’s no surprise that the median age in the areas of origin feeding migration to Daytona Beach tends to be on the older side.
According to the 2021 Census ACS 5-Year Projection data, the median age in Daytona Beach was 39.0. Meanwhile, the weighted median age in the areas of migration origin was 42.6, indicating that those moving to Daytona Beach may be older than the current residents of the city.
Zooming into the migration data on a zip code level also highlights Daytona Beach’s appeal to older Americans: The zip code welcoming the highest rates of domestic migration was 32124, home to both Jimmy Buffet’s Latitude Margaritaville’s 55+ community and the LPGA International Golf Club, host of the LPGA Tour. The median age in this zip code is also older than in Daytona Beach as a whole, and the weighted age in the zip codes of origin was even higher – suggesting that older Americans and retirees may be driving much of the migration to the area.
Looking at the migration draw factors for Daytona Beach also suggests that the city is particularly appealing to retirees, with the city scoring an A grade for its “Fit for Retirees.” But the city of Daytona Beach is also an attractive destination for anyone looking to elevate their leisure time, with the city scoring higher than Daytona Beach’s cities of migration origin for “Weather,” “Access to Restaurants,” or “Access to Nightlife.”
Like Boulder, Daytona’s scenery – including its famous beaches – is likely attracting newcomers looking to spend more time outdoors and improve their work-life balance. And like Boulder and its tech scene, Daytona Beach also has an extra pull factor – its affordability and fit for older Americans – that is likely helping the area continue to attract new residents, even as domestic migration slows down nationwide.
Although the overall pace of domestic migration has slowed, analyzing location intelligence data reveals several migration hotspots amidst the overall cooldown. Boulder and Daytona Beach each have a set of unique draw factors that seem to attract different populations – and the success of these regions highlights the many paths to migration growth in 2024.
The Fitness industry was a major post-pandemic winner. Visits to gyms across the country surged as stay-at-home orders ended and people returned to their in-person workout routines. And even as consumers reduced discretionary spending in the face of inflation, they kept going to the gym – finding room in their budgets for the chance to embrace wellness and get in shape while interacting with other people.
But no category can sustain such unabated growth forever – and as the segment inevitably stabilizes, gyms will need to stay nimble on their feet to maintain their competitive edge.
This white paper takes a closer look at the state of Fitness as the category transitions into a more stable growth phase following two years of outsize post-pandemic demand. The report digs into the location analytics to reveal how the Fitness space has changed – and what strategies gyms can adopt to stay ahead of the pack.
*This report excludes locations within Washington state due to local legislation.
Monthly visits to the Fitness category have grown consistently year over year (YoY) since early 2022, when COVID subsided and gyms returned to full capacity. And the segment is still doing remarkably well. Even in January and March 2024 – when visits were curtailed by an Arctic blast and by the Easter holiday weekend – YoY Fitness visits remained positive, despite the comparison to an already strong 2023.
Still, recent months have seen smaller YoY increases than last year, indicating that the Fitness category is entering a more normalized growth phase.
By keeping a close watch on evolving consumer preferences, fitness chains can uncover new opportunities for growth and adaptation within a stabilizing market – including leaning into increasingly popular dayparts.
Examining the evolving distribution of gym visits by daypart over the past six years shows that major shifts were brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2021, as remote work took hold, gyms saw their share of 2:00 PM - 5:00 PM visits increase from 15.8% to 18.6%. Though this trend partially reversed as the pandemic receded, afternoon visits remained elevated in Q1 2024 compared to pre-COVID – likely a reflection of hybrid work patterns that leave people free to take an exercise break during their workdays.
At the same time, the share of morning visits to fitness chains (between 8:00 AM and 11:00 AM) dropped from 20.5% in Q1 2019 to 17.2% in Q1 2024, while evening visits (between 8:00 PM and 11:00 PM) increased from 11.3% to 13.2%.
Gyms that recognize this changing behavior can adapt to new workout preferences – whether by incentivizing morning visits, scheduling popular classes mid-afternoon, or offering extended evening hours.
In fact, the data indicates that gyms that are leaning into the evening workout trend are already finding success: Of the top 12 most-visited gym chains in the country, those that saw bigger increases in their shares of evening visits also tended to see greater YoY visit growth.
EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, for example, have seen their shares of evening visits grow by 5.5% and 3.4%, respectively, since COVID – and in Q1 2024, their YoY visits grew by 29.0% and 21.8%, respectively. Other chains, including 24 Hour Fitness and Chuze Fitness, experienced similar shifts in visit patterns. At the same time, LA Fitness saw just a minor increase in its share of evening visits between Q1 2019 and Q1 2024, and a correspondingly small increase in YoY visits.
As the evening workout slot gains popularity, gym operators that can adapt to these new trends and encourage evening visits may see significant benefits in the years to come.
Diving into demographic data for the analyzed gym chains sheds light on some factors that may be driving this heightened preference for evening workouts at top-performing gyms.
The four fitness chains that experienced the greatest YoY visit boosts in Q1 – Crunch Fitness, EōS Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, and Chuze Fitness – all featured trade areas with significantly higher-than-average shares of Young Professionals and Non-Family Households. (STI: PopStat’s Non-Family Household segment includes households with more than one person not defined as family members. Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s Young Professional consumer segment includes young professionals starting their careers in white collar or technical jobs.)
In plainer terms, these consumer segments – typically young, well-educated, and without children – and therefore more likely to be flexible in their workout times – are driving visits to some of the best-performing gyms across the country. And these audiences seem to be displaying a preference for nighttime sweat sessions – a factor that gyms can take into account when planning programming and marketing efforts.
Leaning into emerging gym visitation patterns is one way for fitness chains to thrive in 2024 – but it isn’t the only marker of success for the segment. Even after years of visit growth, the market remains open to new opportunities and innovations that meet health-conscious consumers where they are.
STRIDE Fitness, a gym that offers treadmill-based interval training, has sparked a trend among running enthusiasts. This niche player is finding success, particularly among a specific demographic: runners and endurance training enthusiasts.
Between January and April 2024, monthly YoY visits to STRIDE Fitness consistently outperformed the wider Fitness space. A standout month was January, when STRIDE Fitness’s visits soared by an impressive 33.6% YoY, surpassing the industry average of 5.7% for the same period.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – suggests that STRIDE Fitness’ trade areas are well-positioned to attract those visitors most open to its offerings. Residents of STRIDE Fitness’s potential market are 24% more likely to be, or to be interested in, Endurance Athletes than the nationwide average – compared to just 3% for the Fitness industry as a whole. Similar patterns emerge for Marathon Runners and Triathlon Participants. This indicates that the chain is well-situated near consumers with a passion for endurance sports and long distance running, helping it maintain a competitive edge in the crowded gym market.
Pickleball, a game that blends elements of tennis, ping pong, and badminton, is the fastest-growing sport in the country. And recognizing its broad appeal, some fitness chains have begun incorporating pickleball courts into their facilities.
Arizona-based EōS Fitness added a pickleball court at a Phoenix, AZ location – and early 2024 data highlights the impact of this addition. Between January and April 2024, the location drew between 9.1% and 33.3% more monthly visits than the chain’s Arizona visit-per-location average.
And analyzing the demographic profile of the chain’s location with a pickleball court reinforces the game’s increasingly wide appeal. Young consumer segments have been embracing the game in large numbers – and the Phoenix EōS Fitness location’s potential market includes a significantly higher share of 18 to 34-year-olds than the chain’s overall Arizona potential market. Residents of the pickleball location’s trade area are also less affluent than the chain’s Arizona average.
Pickleball has typically been associated with more affluent consumer segments, and it seems like this may be shifting. With more people than ever embracing the game, gyms that choose to add courts to their facilities may reap the foot traffic benefits.
The Fitness industry has undergone a significant transformation since COVID-19. The category’s outsize post-pandemic visit growth has begun to stabilize, and gyms are staying ahead by adapting to changing consumer preferences. Evenings are emerging as crucial dayparts for gym operators, likely driven by younger consumer segments. And niche fitness chains are seeing visit success, proving that there are plenty of ways for the Fitness segment to succeed.
