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Starbucks, the largest coffee chain in the world, and Dutch Bros, one of the fastest growing in the country, are major players in the hot and cold beverage space. With Q3 2024 in the rearview mirror, we took a closer look at the visitation patterns to both chains to see how they are faring – and what might lie ahead for both brands.
Starbucks is one of the most dominant names in coffee across the world, with thousands of stores in the United States alone. Between July 2023 and July 2024, the chain added more than 500 stores to its domestic fleet, bringing its U.S. store count to 16,730. And though Starbucks has faced its share of challenges, these store additions helped keep overall traffic to the coffee leader on par with 2023 levels throughout the summer – though visits dipped somewhat in September as consumers went back to their routines.
But digging deeper into the visit data shows that even as Starbucks saw overall foot traffic growth stall in Q3, the number of short visits to the chain – i.e. those lasting less than 10 minutes – increased. In August and September 2024, the chain drew 8.5% and 4.7% more short visits, respectively, than in the same periods of 2023 – revealing how important these quick stops are for the chain.
In-app ordering, which together with drive-thru orders made up about 70% of sales at the chain as of January 2024, may be contributing to the short visit trend. Still, new CEO Brian Niccol is looking for ways to return the chain to its roots as the third place, and the chain may yet implement shifts to encourage longer visits in the coming months.
Dutch Bros has been one of the most impressive coffee chains to watch over the past few years. The Oregon-based chain has been on an expansion tear – opening more than 150 stores between Q2 2023 and Q2 2024 – and has seen the elevated monthly visits to match. Between June and September 2024, visits to Dutch Bros increased between 13.7% and 16.9%, highlighting the chain’s success at growing its audience.
But like at Starbucks, short visits outperformed longer ones at Dutch Bros – and by a lot. In September 2024, for example, overall visits to the chain grew by 13.7% – but visits lasting less than 10 minutes shot up by 26.6%.
The strength of these short visits, for both Starbucks and Dutch Bros, suggests a shift towards convenience, with both chains utilizing drive-thru services and in-app ordering to accommodate busy consumers.
Digging down deeper into the data shows that for both Starbucks and Dutch Bros, these all-important short visits follow a distinct weekly pattern.
While longer visits (≥10 minutes) to both chains peaked in Q3 2024 on Saturdays, shorter visits were more evenly distributed throughout the week, peaking on Fridays. Overall, 34.1% of long visits to Starbucks, and 37.8% of long visits to Dutch Bros, took place on the weekends in Q3 2024 – compared to 28.1% and and 28.7%, respectively, for shorter visits.
Unsurprisingly, customers may be more likely to grab a quick coffee to go during the work week. And with the return to office still underway, quick visits may be enjoying a boost fueled by commuters in need of a quick cubicle pick-me-up.
As Starbucks works to adapt to shifting consumer preferences, understanding when customers spend more time in-store can help the brand reconnect with its roots as a community hub. And Dutch Bros can continue to enhance the quick-service experience that has fueled its growth. How will the two chains continue to perform in what remains a competitive coffee environment?
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In recent years, Americans have gotten serious about fitness. Even as consumers tightened their purse strings, they found room in their budgets for the ultimate affordable indulgence: A (relatively) low-cost gym membership that, once paid, offers customers unlimited access to club facilities.
How did Planet Fitness, the nation’s largest value gym perform in Q3 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Planet Fitness has been on a roll. In Q2 2024, the chain reported a 4.2% system-wide increase in same store sales and the addition of 18 new gyms to its fleet. (Though Planet Fitness operates clubs outside the U.S., the vast majority of its some 2600 locations are domestic).
Foot traffic data shows that the chain continued to thrive through Q3, with year-over-year (YoY) monthly visit upticks ranging from 4.1% to 11.6% – outperforming the wider industry. And while the value gym giant finally raised the price of its basic membership this summer for the first time in more than thirty years, the move does not seem to have dented Planet Fitness’ growth trajectory – though it’s still early days.
Planet Fitness takes pains to emphasize its commitment to being a “Judgement Free Zone” – and casual gym-goers make up a significant portion of its visitor base. In Q3 2024, 44.3% of visitors hit the club, on average, less than twice a month.
But Planet Fitness also has a significant – and growing – share of die-hard gym buffs who visit the club at least eight or ten times a month - i.e. at least twice a week. In Q3 2024, a full 16.8% of visitors to Planet Fitness came to the gym at least eight times a month on average – up from just 12.9% in 2019 and 15.3% in 2022. And 11.9% visited the chain ten or more times a month – up from 8.6% in 2019 and 10.6% in 2022.
Though casual visitors are also important for any fitness club’s bottom line, a strong and thriving community of highly committed members is an important foundation for future growth.
Gym visit frequency, however, varies throughout the United States. Analyzing the share of highly committed visitors to Planet Fitness reveals significant differences between states.
New Mexico led the pack in Q3 with 13.9% of visitors frequenting the gym, on average, at least ten times a month – followed by Rhode Island (13.1%) and California (12.7%). On the other end of the spectrum lay Montana, where just 6.0% of club goers were highly committed visitors in Q3, followed by Iowa (7.7%) and Vermont (8.0%).
This data highlights how gym engagement can be influenced by regional factors such as lifestyle, climate, and access to alternative fitness options – suggesting that Planet Fitness and similar chains may benefit from tailoring their marketing and membership strategies to local trends and preferences.
The holiday season isn’t a particularly busy one for gyms – which usually see traffic begin to slow down in September before picking up again in the new year. But if Planet Fitness’ solid September 2024 performance is any indication, the chain may be in for a busier fourth quarter this year than last. Will Planet Fitness continue to deliver as the year draws to a close?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
In a market ruled by value and convenience, traditional full-service restaurants (FSRs) have faced an uphill slog. But even in 2024, some FSRs are flourishing. We dove into the data to explore factors driving success at three very different full-service chains: First Watch, Chili’s Grill & Bar, and Outback Steakhouse.
First Watch first burst onto the scene in 1983 with a single restaurant in California – and now boasts some 544 locations across 29 states. With offerings ranging from Superfood Kale Salads to more traditional pancakes and bacon and eggs, First Watch has emerged as a prime destination for diners seeking to enjoy a leisurely breakfast with family and friends.
And foot traffic data shows that First Watch, still firmly in expansion mode, is continuing to grow its audience. Between June and September 2024, First Watch saw consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, outperforming both the full-service restaurant category and other diners & breakfast spots.
One factor that may be helping to propel First Watch’s success is the relative affluence of its customer base. Analyzing the income breakdown of First Watch’s trade area shows that in Q3 2024, nearly ten percent (9.7%) of households in the chain’s captured market earned $200K+ per year, compared with 6.5% for diners & breakfast chains and 6.9% for the wider FSR space. On the flip side, only 43.9% of households in First Watch’s captured market had annual incomes below $75K, compared to just over 50.0% for both analyzed segments.
Amidst concerns surrounding food inflation, rising labor costs, and discretionary spending cutbacks, First Watch’s wealthier customer base may be helping to shield it from some of the value pressures that have weighed on other restaurants – contributing to its resilience.
Another FSR that has been experiencing outsized visit growth this year – at least since April – is Chili’s Grill & Bar. Following a tepid start to the year, Chili’s launched its much-vaunted Big Smasher Burger on April 29th, 2024, and hasn’t looked back since.
The new offering, added to Chili’s 3 For Me value menu, presented a full-service value challenge to QSR favorites like the Big Mac. And in Q2 2023, the item helped drive a 14.8% increase in same-store sales.
Since the big launch, weekly YoY visits to Chili’s have been consistently elevated – kept aloft with the help of viral hype around Chili’s long standing Triple Dipper offering, as well as the new secret Nashville Hot Mozz offering that became so popular it spawned a halloween costume.
Unlike First Watch, Chili’s has found success by embracing its role as a value chain. The median household income (HHI) of Chili’s captured market in Q3 2024 was $73.1K – below the nationwide median of $76.1K, and on par with that of the wider FSR space ($73.7K – By way of comparison, the median HHI of First Watch’s captured market was $85.6K in Q3).
And a closer look at the demographic make-up of Chili’s captured market shows just how broad the appeal of the chain is. In Q3 2024, Chili’s visitor base was over-represented for a wide range of segments across age and income groups – from “Wealthy Suburban Families” to “Young Urban Singles”, “Suburban Boomers’, and residents of “Blue Collar Suburbs”. By delivering high-quality meals at affordable prices, Chili’s has solidified its place as an everyman’s chain, offering value comparable to that of quick-service restaurants.
Aussie-themed Outback Steakhouse – Bloomin’ Brands’ biggest chain – is another full-service restaurant that is successfully weathering the storm. Like other FSRs, Outback has faced its fair share of challenges over the past few years, with rising costs and spending cutbacks taking a toll on the chain’s performance. But in Q3 2024, the average number of visits to each Outback Steakhouse location increased 0.5% YoY, even as overall traffic to the chain fell 1.7% in the wake of strategic rightsizing moves that included the shuttering of a number of underperforming locations. By contrast, the average number of visits per location in the wider FSR space dropped 1.2%, while overall foot traffic to the segment fell 2.1%. Outback Steakhouse’s ability to sustain a YoY visit-per-location uptick in Q3, even if a minor one, shows that its rightsizing efforts are paying off.
And drilling down deeper into regional data for the chain shows that in some areas of the country, Outback Steakhouse is positively thriving. In California, Outback’s third-largest market in terms of store count, the chain saw a YoY visit increase of 5.3% – significantly higher than the statewide FSR average of 1.1%. In Washington and Oregon, Outback Steakhouse experienced even more substantial visit increases – 9.0% and 9.6%, respectively – even as full-service restaurants generally languished. And in all three states, the number of Outback Steakhouse locations has remained basically unchanged over the past year, meaning that these increases reflect the growing draw of the chain’s existing venues.
First Watch, Chili’s Grill & Bar, and Outback Steakhouse are very different full-service chains – but each of them is thriving in its own way. How will the three brands fare as the holiday season picks up steam?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven dining analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Quick-service restaurants (QSRs) have faced headwinds in 2024, from higher costs to increased competition. But some brands are weathering the storm particularly well. We dove into the data to check in with two of the nation’s most prominent restaurant companies – Restaurant Brands International (RBI) and Yum! Brands – to see how their biggest chains, Burger King (RBI) and Taco Bell (Yum!), performed in Q3 2024.
Burger King, RBI’s largest restaurant chain, has been the focus of a major modernization effort, dubbed the “Royal Reset”, that includes a series of restaurant remodels and equipment and technology upgrades. Burger King has also been rightsizing – closing underperforming restaurants to shore up the chain’s overall strategic positioning.
And foot traffic data shows that these initiatives are paying off. In Q3 2024, overall visits to Burger King dipped 1.7% YoY – but the average number of visits to each Burger King location increased slightly (0.4%). This per-location uptick may have been fueled, in part, by the chain’s summer “$5 Your Way” value meal special, which kept YoY visits elevated through July. And some major markets – including Texas, Illinois, Washington, and Connecticut – performed even better, with average visit-per-location growth ranging from 1.5% - 5.1% YoY.
Taco Bell is Yum! Brands’ largest chain – accounting for over 70.0% of visits to the company’s U.S. restaurants in Q3 2024. And the Tex-Mex leader is another QSR that is standing strong in 2024. Throughout the summer, Taco Bell experienced YoY visit growth ranging from 1.2% to 2.2% – and though the chain saw a minor 1.9% YoY dip in September, this may be due to the month having one fewer Friday than the equivalent period of 2023. (Friday is Taco Bell’s busiest day of the week). Even accounting for this dip, visits to Taco Bell were up 0.6% YoY overall in Q3 2024.
One factor that has likely helped Taco Bell weather recent QSR storms has been its strength in executing special promotions. In July, the Tex-Mex leader attracted big crowds with a limited-time offer commemorating the 20th anniversary of the chain’s popular Baja Blast beverage. And in October 2024, the restaurant marked National Taco Day (Tuesday, October 1st) with ten hours of $1 tacos – fueling a substantial traffic spike: On the big day, visits rose 14.7% above the chain’s daily year-to-date (YTD) average, and 18.4% above the chain’s Tuesday YTD average.
Burger King and Taco Bell found success in Q3 2024 through limited-time promotions – and in the case of the former, a strategic focus on rightsizing while updating existing stores. How will RBI and Yum!’s biggest brands perform in Q4?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven restaurant analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Starbucks’ preliminary fiscal Q4 2024 (July-September 2024) results--including a 10% decline in comparable transactions in its North America segment--reinforce that the company has "drifted from its core", as new Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol discussed following the release. The results also come at a time when other coffee and beverage chains are seeing year-over-year visit increases, reinforcing that new product innovations aren't connecting with consumers–management explained that “accelerated investments in an expanded range of product offerings coupled with more frequent in-app promotions and integrated marketing to entice frequency across the customer base did not improve customer behaviors.” (The difference between our visit per location figure and Starbucks’ reported number is likely due to lower coverage of urban stores in our platform).
As we wrote when Niccol assumed the CEO role in August, Starbucks’ transformation won’t happen overnight, but the data behind Niccol’s early strategies at Chipotle still hints at a successful turnaround. Niccol's plan to improve the Starbucks customer experience, remove bottlenecks and operational complexities (including a more streamlined menu), and refine Mobile Order and Pay is a sound strategy, but it will take time to implement. Positively, we believe that Starbucks has a strong foundation to work from. Below, we show the monthly visitor per location trend line since the beginning of 2022. While declines in visit frequency is something the company will work to address with its current initiatives, the number of visitors coming into each location generally remains strong (down only 2%-3% per month on average thus far in 2024). Assuming the company can execute Niccol’s plan to reduce bottlenecks and operation complexities, Starbucks’ wide visitor reach should drive improved engagement and visit frequency.
As we also pointed out a few months ago, we believe that Starbucks’ success in smaller underpenetrated markets have been somewhat overlooked. We analyzed Starbucks’ unit expansion opportunities in detail in September 2022, and we’ve seen progress on this initiative since then. Starbucks’ recent store development effects have been focused on “Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities where we see population growth and forecast both underserved demand and high incrementality.” We’ve revisited our visit per location data for Starbucks’ Top 25 designated market areas (DMAs) versus non-Top 25 DMAs over the last 12 full months below, and similar to our last update, Starbucks is seeing higher visits per location in its non-Top 25 markets. Many of these non-Top 25 DMA stores have been opened in the past 12-18 months, which suggests improved metrics as operational complexities are reduced and these locations enter the same-store sales base.
Photo Image Credit: Orange County Register
We know there’s appetite for Six Flags Fright Fest, Universal Studios Halloween Horror Nights, Knotts’ Scary Farm, and Halloween Screams at Walt Disney World, but one innovative car wash takes you to another level, inviting you to go on a “nightmarish journey that turns an ordinary car wash into a realm of terror.” Big Wave Car Wash in Anaheim is one of the locations, and it’s immediately clear that this spooky spectacular is a hit. Compared to another local car wash competitor, we see that the addition of the scary performers nearly triples Big Wave’s traffic, especially Thursday-Sunday with the October kickoff.
We compared the Spatial.ai PersonaLive segments for Big Wave and Drive Thru Express Car Wash from January-September 2024 vs from October 1-19, 2024. In the month of October alone, we saw over 4x more visits from Near-Urban Diverse families and from Melting Pot Families to the haunted carwash compared to the entire rest of the year. Among Young Urban Singles, there was a 2.5x multiplier for just the three weeks in October compared to January-September. And while Ultra Wealthy Families normally only make up 1% of the visits, during this spooky spectacular, they accounted for 5%. Now you know where to go when junior is bored–head for the haunted car wash!
No surprise, the trade area drawn during the month of October is significantly larger as people come from a total trade area of 53 sq miles during this event (October 1-19, 2024 in red), compared to 12 sq miles the rest of the year (January-September 2024 in blue).
The grocery industry has navigated unprecedented challenges in recent years – from pandemic-driven shifts in consumer behavior and supply chain disruptions to rising costs, labor shortages, and increased operational demands. In the face of these hurdles, the category has been pushed to innovate, adapting everything from product selections to shopping formats to meet changing consumer expectations.
But within the grocery industry, some segments resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. This white paper dives into the data to explore two segments that have been leading category-wide visit growth for some time: specialty and fresh format stores, which focus on produce, organic foods, and culturally specific items (think Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and H Mart, to name a few), and value grocery chains like Aldi, WinCo Foods, and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market. Location analytics show shoppers are increasingly drawn to these two grocery store types, a shift that has the potential to reshape the grocery landscape.
How did value and specialty grocery chains perform in Q3 2024 in comparison to traditional supermarkets like Kroger, Albertsons, and H-E-B? How does visitor behavior vary between the three grocery segments, and what differences can be observed in the demographic and psychographic make-ups of their trade areas? The report explores these questions and more below.
The grocery industry has performed well over the past few months, with steady weekly year-over-year (YoY) visit increases throughout Q3 2024. During the week of July 1st, the segment saw a 4.6% YoY foot traffic boost, likely driven by shoppers loading up on ingredients for Independence Day barbecues and picnics. And after tapering somewhat in early August, visits picked up again in September, with YoY increases ranging from 2.0% to 2.9% throughout the month. This positive growth is a good sign for the segment – which has experienced more than its fair share of challenges over the past few years.
Though the grocery category as a whole is thriving, a closer look at different segments within the industry reveals that some are seeing more significant growth than others.
Indeed, digging deeper into grocery visits throughout Q3 2024 reveals that much of the industry’s growth is being driven by specialty and fresh format stores and value grocery chains. The two segments offer markedly different shopping experiences: Specialty chains tend to emphasize harder-to-find ingredients and fresh produce – sometimes even at higher price points than traditional grocery stores – while value grocery stores focus on affordability. But both categories are experiencing outsize visit growth in 2024, highlighting consumers’ dual interest in both quality and value.
In July and August 2024, traditional supermarkets, specialty grocers, and value chains all experienced positive YoY visit growth. But while traditional grocery stores saw a 3.1% increase in July and just a 0.9% uptick in August, value and specialty chains saw YoY growth ranging from 4.7% to 7.7% during the two months. In September 2024, YoY visits to traditional grocery stores fell by 0.5%, while value and specialty chains saw 5.0% and 5.2% increases, respectively. For today’s consumer, it seems, savings are key – but specialty offerings also resonate strongly.
Today’s grocery shoppers are increasingly embracing specialty grocery options – and analyzing consumer driving habits to grocery stores shows that they are willing to go the extra mile to reach them.
Breaking down grocery visits by distance traveled reveals that just 18.5% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery chains came from less than one mile away in Q3 2024 – compared to 23.9% for traditional grocery stores and 23.2% for value chains. Similarly, 31.3% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery stores originated from one to three miles away, compared to 34.7% and 34.5% for the other analyzed segments.
On the flip side, some 26.4% of visits to specialty and fresh format stores were made by people traveling at least seven miles to do their shopping – compared to 22.7% and 21.4% for traditional and value chains, respectively. Specialty grocery operators can account for this difference, locating stores in areas accessible to geographically dispersed audiences eager to shop their unique offerings.
And a look at changes in visitor behavior at three key specialty chains – Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and Great Wall Supermarket – shows that even as these brands expand their footprints, customers are increasingly willing to travel the distance to visit them. Between 2019 and 2024, all three chains saw a marked increase in the share of visitors traveling over seven miles to shop their offerings. .
Asian grocery chain Great Wall Supermarket, a relatively small regional chain with some 22 locations across eight states, saw the most significant increase in visits from afar over the analyzed period. In Q3 2024, 32.3% of visits to the chain originated from seven or more miles away, up from 28.3% in Q3 2019. Ranked America’s Best Supermarket by Newsweek in 2024, the chain’s wide selection of everything from seafood to fresh produce has made it a hit among Asian food aficionados – and as the supermarket’s reputation grows, so does its draw among customers living further away from its venues.
Consumer favorite Trader Joe’s and organic grocery chain Sprouts Farmers Market also grew their shares of long-distance visits between 2019 and 2024 – no small feat for the two chains, given their expansion over the past several years.
This travel distance snapshot serves as a reminder of the unique role played by specialty grocery stores that offer their customers unique shopping experiences, premium or organic products, and culturally specific items. Shoppers will go out of their way to travel to these stores – and even as they expand and become more readily accessible, their growing popularity makes them ever-more attractive destinations for customers coming from further away.
While visitors to specialty grocery chains often travel long distances for unique offerings, cost-conscious consumers at value stores exhibit other behaviors that differentiate them from traditional and specialty grocery shoppers.
The rising cost of living has pushed the discount retail segment into overdrive – and value grocery chains are also benefiting. The category has flourished in recent years, with many bargain-oriented grocery chains adding new stores at a rapid clip to meet burgeoning consumer demand.
Like visitors to specialty grocery chains, value grocery shoppers demonstrate segment-specific behaviors that reflect their preferences and habits. And perhaps most strikingly, foot traffic data reveals that these shoppers tend to stay longer in-store than visitors to traditional and specialty grocery chains.
In Q3 2024, 26.5% of visits to value grocery chains lasted longer than 30 minutes, compared to 23.4% for traditional grocery chains and 23.7% for specialty and fresh format chains. This suggests that these stores attract shoppers who take their time and carefully consider price points, looking for the best value for their dollar – a need that the chains they frequent seem to be meeting.
Given the tremendous success of the value grocery space in recent years, it may come as no surprise that some traditional supermarkets are getting in on the action by opening or expanding discount banners of their own. How do such off-shoot banners impact these grocers’ reach?
Cult-favorite Texas grocery chain H-E-B opened the first branch of its value banner, Joe V’s Smart Shop, in 2010. The discount arm currently includes 11 stores – mainly in the Houston area – with several new stores opening, or in planning stages, in Dallas.
And foot traffic data shows that Joe V's attracts mission-driven shoppers who make less frequent but significantly longer trips than visitors to traditional grocery stores. In Q3 2024, the average visit duration at Joe V’s was 37.8 minutes, compared to just 26.8 minutes at H-E-B – a full 11 minute difference. At the same time, while 38.5% of Q3 visits to H-E-B were made by customers frequenting the chain, on average, at least four times a month, just 11.8% of visits to Joe V’s were made by visitors reaching that threshold.
Joe V’s is also more likely than H-E-B to attract parental households, with 36.8% of its captured market made up of households with children – significantly higher than H-E-B’s 32.0%.
Together, these data points paint a picture of the average Joe V’s shopper: cost-conscious, likely to have children, and inclined to carefully plan shopping trips to maximize savings and cut down on grocery runs. This suggests that they are mission-driven and focused on stocking up rather than running out to grab ingredients as the need arises.
Major grocery store operators often operate a variety of store types at different price points to appeal to as many shoppers as possible, and Hy-Vee is no exception. The regional grocery favorite launched a discount chain, Dollar Fresh, in 2018 and currently operates 25 stores under that banner, aiming to attract middle-class, cost-conscious shoppers.
Using Experian’s Mosaic dataset to analyze Dollar Fresh’s trade area reveals that the chain’s captured market features significantly higher shares of lower-middle-class family consumers than its potential one – highlighting its special draw for these shoppers. (A chain’s potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to population size, thus reflecting the overall makeup of the chain’s trade area. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base. Comparing a chain’s captured market to its potential one can serve as a helpful gauge of the brand’s success at attracting key audience segments.)
In Q3 2024, the “Pastoral Pride” family segment represented 11.4% of Dollar Fresh’s captured market, compared to just 5.3% of its potential market. This over-representation of lower-middle-class consumers from small towns in Dollar Fresh’s captured market indicates that the chain is especially effective at drawing customers that belong to this segment. Though Hy-Vee’s captured market also boasted a higher share of this demographic than its potential one in Q3, the difference was much smaller – and the chain’s overall reach among these consumers was more limited.
In contrast, Hy-Vee excels at attracting “Flourishing Families” – affluent, middle-aged families and couples – who made up 10.3% of the supermarket’s captured market in Q3 2024. Dollar Fresh’s captured market, on the other hand, featured a smaller share of this segment than its potential one – showing that the discount chain is of less interest to these consumers. So while Hy-Vee tends to appeal to higher-income families with more spending flexibility, value-conscious shoppers have been making their way to Dollar Fresh.
This audience segmentation analysis shows how value offerings help grocery chains attract wider audiences – and highlights the advantage of operating multiple store types to appeal to a broader range of shoppers.
People will always need access to a variety of fresh foods – ensuring that grocery stores and supermarkets continue to play a vital role in in the retail landscape. And while the category as a whole has continued to thrive even in today’s challenging environment, specialty and value grocery chains resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. As grocery retailers diversify their formats, those aligning with consumer preferences for affordability, uniqueness, and quality are well-positioned for continued growth.
Malls have come a long way since their introduction to the world in the 1950s. These gleaming retail hubs promised shoppers a taste of the American dream, offering a third place for teens, families, and everyone in between to shop, socialize, and hang out.
And though malls have faced challenges in recent years, as e-commerce and pandemic-induced store closures led to shifts in consumer habits, the outlook is brightening. Malls have embraced innovation, incorporating enhanced entertainment, dining, and experiential offerings that attract a diverse range of visitors and redefine their purpose.
This white paper takes a look at the recent location intelligence metrics to gain an understanding of the changes taking place at malls across the country – including both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers. The report explores questions like: Why do malls experience foot traffic bumps during the summer months? How much of an impact do movie theaters have on mall visits, and what can mall operators learn from the Mall of America and American Dream malls’ focus on experiential entertainment?
Mall visitation is highly seasonal, with strikingly consistent monthly visitation patterns. Each year, visits decline somewhat in February, pick up in March, and begin to trend upward again in May – before peaking again in August. Then, after a slower September and October, foot traffic skyrockets during the holiday season, spiking dramatically in December.
And while these trends follow similar patterns every year, comparing monthly visits throughout 2019, 2023, and 2024 (YTD) to each year’s own January baseline shows that this seasonality is growing more pronounced - especially for indoor malls.
Following a lackluster 2023, visits to both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers peaked higher in March 2024 than in 2019. And this summer, indoor malls in particular saw a much larger visit boost than in previous years. In August 2024, for example, visits to indoor malls were 27.3% higher than in January 2024 – a substantially higher baseline jump than that seen either in August 2019 (17.0%) or in August 2023 (12.0%). And though open-air shopping centers experienced a smaller summer visit boost, they too saw a bigger bump this year than in 2019 or in 2023.
But malls aren’t just seeing larger visit spikes this year relative to their January baselines – they are also drawing bigger crowds than they did in 2023.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers both experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. Indoor malls saw the largest YoY foot traffic boost (3.7%) – perhaps owing in part to 2024’s record-breaking heat, which led many patrons to seek refuge in air conditioned spaces. Still, open-air shopping centers, which feature plenty of air conditioned stores and restaurants, also enjoyed a YoY visit boost of 2.8% during the analyzed period.
Malls’ strong summer baseline and YoY foot traffic growth built upon the strong performance seen during most of 2024 so far, leading to the question: What is driving malls’ positive momentum? We delve into some of the factors propelling these changes below.
One offering that continues to play a significant role in driving foot traffic to malls is on-site movie theaters. Summer blockbuster releases, in particular, help attract crowds to theaters, in turn boosting overall visits to malls.
Much like malls, movie theaters have also proven their resilience over the past few years. While pundits fretted about the theater’s impending death, production houses were busy releasing blockbuster after blockbuster and shattering box-office records at an impressive clip. And while 2023 was certainly a banner year for blockbuster summer releases, 2024 has had its fair share of stunning box-office successes, leading to major visit boosts at theaters across the country.
Analyzing visits to malls with and without movie theaters highlights the impact of these summer Hollywood hits. Between June and August 2024, malls with theaters saw bigger visit boosts compared to a monthly year-to-date (YTD) average than malls without – an effect observed both for indoor malls and for open-air shopping centers.
For both mall types, the gap between centers with and without movie theaters was most pronounced in July 2024, likely owing to the release of Inside Out 2 in mid-June as well as the July releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twister. But in June and August 2024, too, centers with movie theaters sustained particularly impressive visit boosts – a solid sign that movie theaters and malls remain a winning combination.
Malls with movie theaters also drew higher shares of evening visits (7:00 PM - 10:00 PM) this summer than those without. Between June and August 2024, for example, evening outings accounted for 22.9% of visits to open-air shopping centers with movie theaters – compared to 18.2% of visits to centers without theaters. Indoor malls with theaters also saw a larger share of evening visits than those without – 18.1% compared to 15.0%.
This increase in evening traffic is likely driven by major summer movie releases and the flexibility of summer schedules, with many visitors – including families – taking advantage of late-night outings without the concern of early wakeup calls. These summer visitation trends benefit both theaters and malls, opening up opportunities for increased sales through concessions, promotions, and evening deals that attract a more relaxed and engaged crowd.
Analyzing the demographics of malls’ captured markets also reveals that centers with movie theaters are more likely to attract certain family-oriented segments than those without. (A mall’s captured market consists of the mall’s trade areas – the census block groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to the mall – weighted according to each CBG’s actual share of visits to the mall.)
Between June and August 2024, for example, 14.2% of the captured markets of open-air shopping centers with movie theaters were made up of “Wealthy Suburban Families” – compared to 9.7% for open-air shopping centers without theaters.
Indoor malls saw a similar pattern with regard to “Near-Urban Diverse Families”: Middle class families living in and around cities made up 9.0% of the captured markets of indoor malls with movie theaters, compared to 7.1% of the captured markets of those without.
This increase in foot traffic from middle-class and wealthy family segments can be a boon for malls and retail tenants – driving up food court profits and bolstering sales at stores with kid-friendly offerings.
Malls have long positioned themselves as destinations for summer entertainment as well as retail therapy, holding – in addition to back to school sales – events like Fourth of July celebrations and even indoor basketball and arena football games. And during the summer months, malls attract visitors from further away.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls drew 18.2% of visitors from 30+ miles away – compared to just 16.7% during the first five months of the year. Similarly, open-air shopping centers drew 19.6% of visits from 30+ miles away during the summer, compared to 17.1% between January and May.
Extended daylight hours, summer trips away from home, and more free time are likely among the contributors to the summer draw for long-distance mall visitors. But in addition to their classic offerings – from movie theaters to stores and food courts – malls have also invested in other kinds of unique experiences to attract visitors. This next section takes a look at two mega-malls winning at the visitation game, to see what sets them apart.
The Minneapolis-based Mall of America opened in 1992, redefining the limits of what a mall could offer. The mall boasts hundreds of stores, games, rides, and more – and is constantly expanding its attractions, cementing its status as a top destination for retail and entertainment.
Between June and August 2024, Mall of America experienced a 13.8% YoY visit increase, far outperforming the 3.7% visit boost seen by the wider indoor mall space. And as a major tourist attraction – the mall hosted a series of Olympic-themed events throughout the summer – it also drew 41.6% of visits from 30+ miles away. This share of distant visitors was significantly higher than that seen at the mall during the first five months of 2024, and more than double the segment-wide summer average of 18.2%.
The Mall of America also seems to be attracting more upper-middle-class families during the summer than other indoor malls: Between June and August 2024, some 18.0% of Mall of America’s captured market consisted of “Upper Suburban Diverse Family Households” – a segment including upper-middle-class suburbanites – compared to just 11.1% for the wider indoor mall segment. The increased presence of these families at the Mall of America may be driven by the variety of events offered during the summer.
In 2019, the American Dream Mall in New Jersey opened and became the second-largest mall in the country. Since the mall opened its doors, it has also focused on blending retail and entertainment to draw in as wide a range of visitors as possible – and summer 2024 was no exception.
The mall hosted the Arena Football League Championship, ArenaBowl XXXIII, on Friday, July 19th. The event successfully attracted a higher share of visitors traveling from 30+ miles away compared to the average summer Friday – 35.4% compared to 25.7%.
Visits to the mall on the day of the championship were also 13.6% higher than the Friday visit average for the period between June and August 2024, showcasing the mall’s ability to draw in crowds by hosting major events.
Malls – both indoor and open-air – continue to evolve while playing a central role in the American retail landscape. Increasingly, malls are emerging as destinations for more than just shopping – especially during the summer – driving up foot traffic and attracting visitors from near and far. And while much is often said about the impact of holiday seasons on mall foot traffic, summer months offer another opportunity to boost mall visits. Malls that can curate experiences that resonate with their clientele can hope to see foot traffic growth – in the summer months and beyond.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
