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Chipotle and McDonald’s are two major players in the fast-casual and quick-service dining scene. With the year's first half behind us, we take a look at how foot traffic to these dining giants performed – and what might lie ahead in the second half of the year.
The wider retail and dining world continues to work through the challenges of inflation and new tariff concerns. But McDonald is focusing on its future, with major expansion plans and menu changes in the works. The chain is bringing back fan favorites, introducing new products, and debuting a new beverage line inspired by its now-defunct CosMc chain.
And the data suggests that these changes are helping drive visits, with the chain outperforming the wider QSR segment in Q2 2025. With the chain continuing its menu innovations in H2 2025 and a major expansion on the horizon, the positive Q2 2025 trends may signal a strong H2 ahead.
McDonald's expansion strategy is ambitious, with plans to open 900 locations around the country by 2027. Where should the chain open these new restaurants to ensure they meet a ready demand?
Diving into YoY same-store visits by state in H1 2025 reveals that much of McDonald's same-store visit increases were concentrated in the western United States, with the Southwest standing out as a particularly strong locus of growth. Nevada, Utah, and Arizona in particular saw YoY same-store visit growths of 4.9%, 4.2%, and 3.4%, respectively – suggesting that diners in these states may be particularly receptive to new McDonald's restaurants.
Chipotle has been a dining powerhouse over the past few years, consistently expanding its presence while maintaining visit growth. Indeed, visits to the chain increased 0.7% YoY in Q2 2025, slightly outpacing the 0.5% increase in visits for the wider fast casual segment.
Meanwhile, visits per location trends tell a slightly different story – the average number of visits per venue fell in Q2 '25 even as visits per venue remained flat in the wider fast casual segment. Some of the dip is likely due to lapping the successful Chicken al Pastor launch and to the Easter calendar shift, which made for a difficult comparison. But the dip had narrowed to just -1.5% by June 2025, suggesting that the chain may be seeing the impacts of its latest menu additions.
But even as Chipotle's visits per location trends trail slightly behind the wider fast casual segment, the chain's overall visit growth has helped capture a growing share of fast-casual visits in recent years despite the rising competition in the segment. In Q2 2025, more than a quarter (26.0%) of fast casual visits went to the fast casual giant – a significant increase from its 20.3% relative visit share in Q1 2019.
And the chain has no plans of slowing, with a goal of opening between 315 and 345 new restaurants in 2025 – setting Chipotle up for continued growth within the dining sector.
Chipotle and McDonald’s continue to drive visit growth even as the wider dining space experiences challenges.
Will visits grow further in H2, or will economic headwinds slow down these upward trends?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven dining insights.
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Following years of volatility and multiple bankruptcies filings, JOANN – the 82-year-old fabric and craft retailer – shuttered its final stores in May 2025, with many stores already closing in April 2025. But diving into traffic trends for some of JOANN's competitors suggest that JOANN's bankruptcy and ultimate closure was not necessarily the result of lowered demand for crafting supplies.
Year-over-year (YoY) visit trends to JOANN stores were mostly stable prior to the closure announcements, and traffic skyrocketed as consumers descended on the bargain-priced fabrics and sewing supplies during the chain's liquidation sales. And since the closures, visits to other crafting retailers has skyrocketed, with traffic to Michael's – JOANN's main competitor that even bought chain's intellectual property – up 9.2% YoY in June 2025.
JOANN is not the only hobby and crafts chain to go bankrupt over the past twelve months – Party City, which had filed for bankruptcy in 2023, also shut its last remaining stores in February 2025. And though Party City's main focus may have been party supplies, the retailer also carried an assortment of arts and crafts supplies. This means that in H1 2025 two craft-forward legacy retailers permanently shut down.
So what brought JOANN and Party City down? While several factors contributed, one significant challenge faced by both companies was their size. Although JOANN had a loyal following in some circles, the retailer's brick-and-mortar footprint was relatively moderate – in 2024, JOANN received less than half as many visits as Michaels, due in part to its significantly smaller store fleet. Party City was even smaller, receiving less than half the visits going to Hobby Lobby last year.
This means that Party City and JOANN likely lacked the economies of scale and marketing dominance of the Hobby Lobby and Michaels – making it harder to stay afloat in an increasingly competitive market. And Party City and JOANN's mid-size brick-and-mortar footprint likely also made it more difficult to compete with mass merchants such as Walmart and Target.
But if the market consolidation forces of recent years drove JOANN and Party City out of business – what to make of the endurance of tiny Blick and its 0.3% visit share? The answer to that may lie in another trend. The bifurcation of consumer spending since COVID has sustained demand for premium, quality brands and products alongside significant growth for value-oriented retail chains. And looking at the trade area median household income for the five analyzed chains highlights Blick's affluent visitor base – and suggests that the chain has successfully positioned itself as a premium purveyor of quality arts supply.
This in turn allows Blick to operate in a wholly different field where it is not competing directly with the Hobby Lobbies (or Walmarts) of the world. Instead, it has carved out a defensible niche where the defining competitive metric isn't price, but the quality and curation of its products.
The divergent paths of JOANN and its competitors highlight the new realities of the craft retail market, where operating without the scale of a Michaels or the premium, defensible niche of a Blick can create a significant liability.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Retail media networks – advertising platforms enabling third parties to promote products and services on a retailer’s websites, digital apps, brick-and-mortar stores, or across partners’ digital properties – have firmly entered the mainstream. Major chains across industries now allow sellers direct access to consumers at the critical point of purchase. And since most shopping still takes place offline, retailers are increasingly expanding their in-store retail media offerings – through digital signage, in-store audio, sampling stations, and in-app features that appear when a customer is physically in the store.
But what do location analytics tell us about the relationship between online and offline retail in 2025 – and the potential role of brick-and-mortar retail media in driving consumer engagement? We dove into the data to find out.
A closer look at several chains that are heavily investing in brick-and-mortar retail media reveals how the in-store / online mix varies by both retailer and season. Unsurprisingly, Kroger’s unique physical visitors outpaced unique website visitors (desktop and mobile) during every quarter. In contrast, The Home Depot’s in-store visitors were closer to its online traffic – occasionally dropping below it in Q1 2025. Target, Lowe’s, and Walmart fell somewhere in between these two extremes.
Interestingly, all chains analyzed attracted more physical visitors in the spring and summer (Q2 and Q3) than in the fall and winter. For both retail media networks and their advertising partners, understanding the interplay between online and offline traffic is crucial for optimizing advertising strategies.
Walmart has emerged as a leader in brick-and-mortar retail media. Through Walmart Connect, the company provides partners with a variety of in-store advertising solutions, including digital screens, in-store radio, on-site demos, and sponsored events at Walmart locations. And non-endemic brands – ranging from restaurants to financial services – can also tap into both Walmart’s online and offline retail media networks.
And foot traffic data shows that the ratio of online to offline Walmart visitors differs greatly throughout the country. In the South Central region, including Texas, Walmart’s physical stores saw 85.0% more unique visitors in May 2025 than its website. But in the Northeast, the gap narrowed to just 8.4%. So advertisers may find cost-effective opportunities by tailoring campaigns to regional traffic tendencies.
The relative size of Walmart’s state-wide markets also varies by channel. In May 2025, Texas accounted for 10.2% of Walmart’s unique in-store visitors, making it the top regional brick-and-mortar market. Yet online, California took the lead at 12.1% of total website visitors. So advertisers aiming for the biggest in-store crowd might choose Texas, while those focused on digital reach could invest more in California. Florida, meanwhile, remained the third-largest market for both online and offline traffic, grabbing about 7.0% of each.
Though offline shopping continues to dominate, the numbers show that neither channel exists in a vacuum. And given how shopper preferences differ by region and season, brands that harness both online and offline data can craft more relevant, impactful campaigns.
For more data-driven retail and advertising analysis follow Placer.ai/anchor.
The grocery segment has never been more competitive, and Aldi, Trader Joe’s, and Lidl have consistently emerged as top players. The three chains share similarities: all offer a limited assortment of groceries and tend to operate at lower price points – however, each one is carving out its own distinct path to growth.
We take a closer look at their performance in H1 2025 to uncover what might be contributing to their continued success.
Aldi, Trader Joe’s, and Lidl have established themselves as formidable players in the grocery segment, consistently thriving despite a challenging market. And diving into H1 2025 underscores their impressive success.
The three grocery chains enjoyed consistently elevated visits in H1 2025, significantly outpacing the wider grocery segment. While overall grocery visits increased by 1.8% YoY, Aldi’s visits grew by 7.1%, Trader Joe’s by 11.9%, and Lidl posted growth of 4.9% during the analyzed period. The three chains also outpaced the wider industry in terms of average visit per location growth.
This strong H1 performance is extra impressive given how well the three chains have performed in recent years. And diving into individual metrics for each chain can further show how they are thriving – and what might lie behind their success.
Trader Joe’s, known for its whimsical and community-centric approach to grocery shopping, got its start in Pasadena, California. Since then, the chain has expanded to nearly 600 locations across the country – but California remains its most significant market. The company operates over 200 locations in the Golden State alone and recently announced plans to expand its footprint within its largest market.
Examining the visitor share among California’s top grocery chains, including major players like Safeway, Ralphs, and VONS, highlights just how well Trader Joe’s is performing in the state. While these chains maintained relatively stable visit shares over the past few years, Trader Joe’s saw its relative visit share grow from 13.2% in H1 2019 to 15.7% in H1 2025. This success underscores the value of investing in product and community – two areas where Trader Joe’s excels.
Aldi, the German grocery giant, derives much of its success from its impressive operational prowess. The chain is laser-focused on maximizing efficiency and streamlining operations in a bid to keep overhead low and customers coming through its doors. And its efforts seem to be paying off – the chain is one of the fastest-growing grocery chains in the nation. Over the past few years, Aldi has opened new stores at a rapid pace, acquiring smaller chains in pursuit of its goal of opening an additional 800 stores by 2028.
And crucially, even as Aldi expands its footprint, the chain continues to draw more average visits per location. Average visits per location were 1.6% higher than they were in 2024, 17.4% higher than in 2023, and 26.7% higher than in 2022. This signals that its new stores are being met by sustained and growing shopper interest instead of cannibalizing foot traffic from existing locations.
This model allows Aldi to grow its footprint and customer base simultaneously and demonstrates an impressive capacity to meet – and create – continued demand for its offerings.
Like Aldi, Lidl emigrated to the United States from Germany – and the chain offers a similar promise of limited-assortment products and lower prices. Diving into visitor demographics at the chain highlights where Lidl shines – and where it has room to grow. Between 2019 and 2025, the chain grew its share of suburban, wealthy, and older segments – but the share of visitors falling into the “Singles and Starters” demographic segment shrunk.
Lidl has been adding new stores in recent months, and while it has certainly leaned into its thriving suburban segment, new locations are also appearing in major cities. This push beyond its established wealthy, suburban roots suggests Lidl may be looking to broaden its appeal to a more diverse urban consumer base.
Trader Joe’s, Aldi, and Lidl continue to thrive despite a challenging retail environment – and while all chains are known for their great deals, the different price points, audiences, and focuses underscore that their success is rooted in strategies beyond their value propositions.
Will these chains continue to drive increased foot traffic in H2 2025? Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven grocery insights.
Summer often brings out the latest fashion trends as consumers head for coastal cities, the beach, summer vacations, and the pool. Sometimes we see new trends catch fire altogether, but summer also tends to signal to shoppers that it’s time to revitalize classic products or items already in their closets in new ways.
L.L.Bean, the outdoor lifestyle retailer and brand, has always been at the center of repeat trends. Its New England heritage lends itself to fashion moments centered around preppy or Americana dressing, and its staple products like the L.L.Bean Boot and Boat and Tote have become longstanding favorites.
Over the past few years, the Boat and Tote product specifically has had its own renaissance as consumers once again flocked to this classic style. Another trend that we can thank TikTok for, the bag became a viral sensation in 2022 as creators would embroider ironic sayings onto their bags instead of the traditional monogram offered. This year appears to be a reinvigoration of this trend, and with new inspirations coming into the fold, such as the “Boatkin”, there is plenty of runway left for the Boat & Tote to keep L.L.Bean top of mind for shoppers. The Boat & Tote also reflects the change in consumer behavior over the last few years relating to branded products and logos – consumers are opting for more subtle designs without logos that can be used for everyday activities.
L.L.Bean retail locations have certainly benefited from the virality of the Boat & Tote. Looking at 2025 traffic performance year-to-date, visits are up almost 15% compared to 2024. Against the backdrop of challenging traffic for many retail chains, this number is even more impressive.
L.L.Bean stores also fit the mold of the current formula that is working in retail – large format stores that offer a wide variety of experiences, assortments, and services that keep customers engaged for longer, with the average dwell time at 32 minutes. Related to the renaissance of the Boat and Tote in 2025, L.L.Bean stores recently added a bag charm bar to locations for consumers to adorn their bags in unique ways, leaning into current trends being seen across the accessories category. Concepts like the charm bar could make the difference in consumers choosing to shop in store instead of simply ordering online.
L.L.Bean’s focus on its iconic products despite the change in trends over time has served the brand in attracting new shoppers with each passing generation. The chain attracts visitors across suburban and rural families, Young Professionals as well as Sunset Boomers. Different generations of consumers have all found their way to L.L.Bean retail locations for different reasons, but the core products that remain have outlasted other trends.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Office supplies behemoth Staples has faced a challenging few years, contending with stiff competition from online rivals and evolving office visit trends that have reduced demand for some of its core products. Consumer cutbacks in discretionary spending driven by recent inflationary pressures have also taken their toll on the retailer, which has closed dozens of stores over the past several years.
But by remaining agile and pivoting towards services and B2B offerings, Staples has defied expectations – showing how retailers can succeed by staying in tune with shifting consumer needs and habits. We dove into the data to explore Staples’ recent visit growth and some of the factors behind its current success.
Last month, Staples brought back its iconic “That Was Easy!” button, highlighting the chain’s mission to simplify customers’ lives through products and solutions. But though Staples’ impressive traffic resurgence might appear to have been effortless, its current growth is the result of a carefully orchestrated pivot towards meeting the practical demands of shoppers in 2025.
In addition to its staple (pun intended) office and school supplies, Staples is ramping up its business-focused services. The chain recently began a pilot with Verizon to expand its tech offerings – with the explicit purpose of offering the telecom giant access to more small business visitors. The company has also expanded its onsite services, offering everything from print-while-you-wait to travel-related options like passport photos.
And a look at Staples’ foot traffic over the past several months shows these efforts are paying off. Since January 2025, visits and average visits per location to Staples have been consistently elevated year over year (YoY), with the sole exception of February, when retailers across categories were impacted by stormy weather and the comparison to a leap year. And as the year has worn on, Staples’ visitation trends have only gotten stronger, with June seeing a 10.3% increase in overall foot traffic and a 13.2% increase in average visits per location compared to 2024.
Despite the challenges of the past several years – and the closure of dozens of stores since 2019 – Staples’ foot traffic is also now higher than it was pre-COVID. In Q2 2025, overall visits to the chain exceeded Q2 2019 levels by 5.6%. And each open store is seeing far more foot traffic than it did before the pandemic, with average visits per location rising by 23.9% over the same period.
Location analytics reinforce the notion that it is Staples’ pivot to services and B2B solutions that is largely fueling this comeback.
August, for example, has traditionally been Staples’ busiest month of the year, as students and families descend on the chain to stock up on back-to-school supplies. But in recent years, the month has become less of an outlier, with traffic spread more evenly across the calendar.
Moreover, the number of frequent visitors to Staples – i.e. those who return to the chain multiple times per month – has grown steadily since 2019. Between H1 2019 and H1 2025, the share of customers visiting Staples at least twice a month on average edged up from 12.0% to 12.8%, and the proportion of those making three or more monthly visits climbed from 3.5% to 4.9%. This shift points to a consumer base increasingly reliant on Staples for ongoing needs rather than episodic purchases.
Staples’ recent visit success sheds light on the power of pivoting to meet shifting consumer demands. By emphasizing services and leaning into B2B offerings, Staples has transformed itself into a go-to destination for new audiences – reinforcing the importance of adaptability and innovation in retail.
For more data-driven retail analyses, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
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Coffee’s success in 2025 offers several key lessons for dining operators across categories:
1. Strategic expansion into under-penetrated regions can supercharge growth. YoY visits to coffee chains are growing fastest in areas of the Southeast and Sunbelt where the category still accounts for a relatively low share of dining visits.
2. Pairing craveable products with genuinely human, personalized service can build durable loyalty. Aroma Joe’s proves that when standout offerings are combined with warm, consistent personal touches, brands can create habit loops that drive repeat visits even in crowded markets.
3. Prioritizing hyper-efficient convenience models can unlock meaningful growth. Scooter’s Coffee demonstrates that fast, reliable, frictionless experiences can materially increase traffic while supporting rapid expansion.
4. Building recurring limited-time rituals can create predictable demand spikes and deepen engagement. From the annual Pumpkin Spice Latte launch to Jackpot Day, coffee chains show that ritualized promotions can “own the calendar,” generating predictable traffic spikes and deepening emotional engagement.
5. Using scarce, hype-driven offerings can generate high-impact moments that shift behavior. Starbucks’ Bearista drop illustrates how limited, buzzworthy merchandise or products can not only spike visits but also shift customer behavior, driving traffic outside typical dayparts.
6. Leveraging cultural collaborations can create excitement without relying on discounts. Dunkin’s Wicked partnership shows that tapping into moments in pop culture can deliver multi-day visit lifts comparable to major promotions – often without relying on giveaways.
Coffee has become one of the most resilient and inventive corners of the U.S. food and beverage industry. Even as consumers wrestle with higher prices and trim discretionary spending, they continue to show up for cold foam, caffeinated boosts, and treat-worthy daily indulgences.
Throughout 2025, coffee chains saw consistent year-over-year (YoY) quarterly visit growth, as brands from Starbucks to 7 Brew expanded their footprints. Crucially, per-location category-wide traffic also remained close to 2024 levels throughout most of the year before trending upward heading into the holiday season – showing that this expansion has not diluted demand at existing coffee shop locations.
What’s fueling coffee’s ongoing momentum? Which strategies are helping leading chains accelerate despite this year’s headwinds? And what can operators across dining categories learn from coffee’s success?
This white paper dives into the data to reveal the strategies behind coffee’s standout performance – and how they can help dining concepts across segments succeed in 2026.
Analyzing market-level (DMA) dining traffic data reveals that coffee chains are prioritizing growth in markets with lighter competition – and this formula is paying off.
In the graphic below, the top map shows the share of dining visits commanded by coffee in each DMA, while the bottom map highlights the year-over-year (YoY) change in visits to the coffee category. Perhaps unsurprisingly, markets where coffee already commands a high share of dining visits (specifically on the West Coast and in the Northeast) are seeing the softest year-over-year performance, while DMAs with lower coffee penetration are delivering the strongest visit growth.
In other words, traditional coffee markets such as Northwestern metros– where competition is high and incremental gains are harder to capture – are no longer the primary engines of category momentum. Instead, coffee visits are growing fastest across the Southeast, Sun Belt, and Texas – regions where branded coffee still represents a relatively small share of dining visits. Operators across dining segments can learn from coffee's approach and identify markets with low category penetration to lean into those whitespace opportunities.
But geography is only part of the story. And the coffee segment shows that a strong concept that delivers on fundamentals – great products and exceptional service – can thrive even in tougher coffee markets such as the northeast.
The experience of expanding Northeastern chain Aroma Joe’s shows how pairing craveable beverages with an unusually personal service model can drive visit growth even in relatively hard-to-break-into regions.
Aroma Joe’s, a rapidly-expanding coffee chain headquartered in Maine, with over 125 locations, has become something of a local obsession: Customers rave about the chain’s addictive signature beverages – as well as the feel-good atmosphere cultivated by its warm, friendly staff. And this combination of human touch and product quality creates a powerful habit loop: In October 2025, nearly one quarter of visitors to Aroma Joe’s stopped at the chain at least four times during the month – a much higher loyalty rate than that seen by other leading coffee brands.
The takeaway: Craveable products paired with exceptional service can create a scalable loyalty engine.
Another key differentiator for the coffee sector is convenience. Drive-thrus have become ubiquitous across the category, with many of the fastest-growing upstarts embracing drive-thru only models and legacy leaders also leaning more heavily into the format.
Scooter’s Coffee – named for its core promise to help customers “scoot” in and out quickly – exemplifies this advantage. In Q3 2025, the chain posted a 3.1% YoY increase in average visits per location, even as it continued to scale its footprint. And its customers averaged a dwell time of just 7.3 minutes – significantly lower than other leading coffee chains, including other drive-thru-forward peers.
By delivering consistently quick experiences without compromising quality, Scooter’s has emerged as a traffic leader in the coffee space – demonstrating the power of efficiency to drive demand.
No category has mastered the “event-ization” of the menu quite like coffee – and few brands own the category’s calendar as effectively as Starbucks. The annual return of the Pumpkin Spice Latte has become a cultural milestone that marks the unofficial start of fall for millions, driving double-digit visit spikes and shaping seasonal traffic patterns.
And the importance of the event only continues to grow. On August 26th, 2025, PSL day drove a 19.5% spike in traffic compared to the prior ten-week average – a higher relative spike than that seen in 2024 or 2023.
But this playbook isn’t reserved for mega-brands. 7 Brew’s monthly Jackpot Day, held on the 7th of each month, shows how recurring promotions can also build anticipation and deliver repeatable traffic lifts for up-and-coming concepts.
Beginning in August 2025, Jackpot Day shifted from a limited “Jackpot Hour” to an all-day activation. That month’s offer – two medium drinks for $8 plus a Kindness wristband – generated a 47.1% lift versus an average Thursday. And in subsequent months, giveaways ranging from tote bags to footballs kept the excitement going, sustaining elevated visits each time the 7th rolled around.
These rituals create emotional consistency: Customers know when to expect something special and plan around it. Dining chains beyond the coffee space can also create dependable spikes in traffic by implementing recurring, ritualized LTOs that create an emotional calendar and keep customers engaged.
Offering recurring LTOs is one way to keep customers consistently engaged. But one-time, limited-edition merch drops can create even bigger visit surges. Starbucks’ much-hyped “Bearista” launch this November is a prime example: Customers lined up nationwide for the chance to buy – not receive – an adorable, limited-edition, bear-shaped reusable cup. And despite its hefty $30 price tag, the merch drop drove a massive nationwide visit spike, making it the chain’s biggest sales day ever and fueling additional momentum leading into Red Cup Day.
And location data shows that this kind of hype-driven, scarce merchandise can shift not just visitor volume but daypart behavior. Visits surged as early as 4:00 AM as FOMO-driven customers showed up at the crack of dawn to secure a bear. And the shift toward early morning visits (though not quite as early) continued the following day as stores quickly ran out of stock.
Starbucks' Bearista frenzy suggests that scarcity isn’t just a retail tactic – it’s a powerful behavioral trigger that restaurants can harness as well. Limited-run items, exclusive merch drops, or time-bound specials can generate excitement, pull visits forward, and reshape daypart patterns in ways traditional promotions rarely do.
Cultural tie-ins add another accelerant. In November, Dunkin’ launched its Wicked collaboration alongside its holiday menu, generating a significant multi-day traffic spike – achieved, like Bearista, without giveaways. The event leaned on playful thematic branding, seasonal flavors, and limited-run items that tapped into Wicked fandom.
Dunkin's Wicked surge shows that when executed well, cultural relevance can also significantly move the needle. Other dining segments may also lean into thoughtful collabs to create outsized excitement and traffic lift – even without deep discounts or free offers.
The coffee sector’s 2025 performance offers a blueprint for dining success: Chains are expanding smartly into underpenetrated regions, successfully implementing both hyper-efficient and hyper-personal service models, using recurring LTOs to build seasonal and monthly rituals, and leveraging merch and pop culture partnerships to reshape demand.
Together, these strategies provide a practical playbook for dining brands to increase visit frequency, deepen customer commitment, and capture new growth opportunities in 2026 and beyond.
Five metros from across the United States stand out for consumer momentum going into 2026: Salt Lake City (UT), Reno (NV), Indianapolis (IN), Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (FL), and Raleigh-Durham (NC). All five metro areas saw their populations increase by more than the average U.S. metro between 2023 and 2024, and year-over-year (YoY) retail and dining traffic trends outpaced the nationwide average.
Utah is one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S. The state’s population has grown steadily for more than two decades with unemployment remaining consistently below the nationwide average, with one of the youngest workforces in the country. According to some analysts, the median household income in Utah, when adjusted for cost of living, is the highest in the nation.
All of this positions Salt Lake City – the state’s capital – as a particularly attractive market heading into 2026. Location analytics show year-over-year increases in foot traffic across many neighborhoods, from established retail hubs like Sugar House and Downtown SLC to the more mixed-use Central City and primarily residential areas such as The Avenues and East Bench. The city also serves as a gateway to a diverse mix of audiences, attracting younger residents and commuters as well as affluent families who come into the city to shop, dine, and enjoy local attractions.
Salt Lake City’s diversity in age and household composition as well as Utah's strong homeownership culture – even among younger cohorts – creates opportunities for retail and dining chains across categories. Home-forward concepts are particularly poised to outperform, as shown by recent location analytics. Traffic to furniture & home furnishing chains increased 7.4% YoY in the Salt Lake City DMA compared to a 2.5% increase nationwide, and grocery stores and home improvement retailers outperformed in the market as well. These trends point to a solid market for retailers tied to home life – from furniture and décor to everyday grocery needs –driven not only by steady population growth and household spending, but also by a local culture that places strong emphasis on family and the home.
While Salt Lake City continues to build on its strong foundation, another Western city is quietly gaining momentum. Reno, Nevada, which is often viewed as a regional gaming-town, is increasingly emerging as a dynamic travel destination in its own right.
In 2024 Washoe County (including the city of Reno) welcomed approximately 3.8 million visitors whose spending of about $3.4 billion generated a total economic impact of $5.2 billion. This growth signals a robust visitor-economy that supports roughly 43,800 jobs and generates over $420 million in state and local tax revenue.
What makes this particularly compelling is that while Las Vegas, Nevada is facing mounting pressures from increasing costs, the Reno-Tahoe region is showing stronger resilience thanks in part to a drive-market model and diversified appeal. Analyzing the traffic data shows that visits from non-residents, and non-employees to downtown Reno have increased YoY for the past three years. And though Reno may be thought of as a vacation spot for older Gen X and Baby Boomer vacationers, the data also indicates that Singles & Starters –"young singles starting out and some starter families living a city lifestyle" – make up an increasingly large share of Reno's visitor base.
This generational diversification carries important implications for both retail and real estate investment. As younger visitors drive up spending in food, entertainment, and shopping centers, the market is poised for renewed urban energy – fueling redevelopment across downtown corridors and mixed-use projects. With strategic public–private investments and an expanding visitor economy, Reno stands out as a market to watch in 2026, combining strong fundamentals with emerging demographic momentum.
The Midwest also contains several metro areas on the rise. Large-scale manufacturing projects like Intel’s $20 billion chip plants and Honda and LG Energy Solution’s EV battery facility are spurring housing and retail expansion around Columbus, Ohio. Kansas City, Missouri, is benefiting from logistics growth and projected tourism growth linked to its role as a FIFA World Cup 2026 host city. And Madison, Wisconsin, is seeing steady consumer growth is supported by its diverse tech and biotech economy.
But Indianapolis, Indiana tops the charts in terms of YoY overall retail visit growth between May and October 2025 (+4.3%, see first chart). And much of the consumer traffic in the Indianapolis DMA consists of suburban and rural households – precisely the segments that many retailers are now trying to woo.
Family-friendly retailers and dining chains are particularly well positioned to thrive in Indiana heading into 2026. Indianapolis has some of the best job prospects and most affordable home prices in the country – and its favorable salary to cost of living ratio likely allows many families to have leftover income left over for discretionary spending.
Recent data shows that a range of family-oriented brands – from Chili’s and Marshall’s to Kroger – have outperformed in Indianapolis over the past six months. The city’s growing middle-income population and its suburban, family-focused consumer base appear to be fueling stronger in-person spending, particularly at convenient, affordable, and community-oriented retail and dining destinations.
Moving east to North Carolina brings several additional growing metros into focus, including Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, and Charlotte. But Raleigh rises above the pack with its powerful combination of job growth, steady in-migration, and a well-balanced, diversified economy.
All this is leading to YoY increases in total traffic within the Raleigh-Durham, NC DMA, driven in part by major firms – including entrants in finance and life-sciences – continuing to expand operations in the area. The city of Raleigh also has relatively low median age and relatively high median household income. This combination of robust job creation, wage gains, and a growing pool of young, high-spending residents positions Raleigh as one of the most dynamic consumer markets in the Southeast heading into 2026.
Raleigh's consumer growth potential is particularly stark when looking at performance of major mixed-use developments across the region. Foot traffic at leading projects such as Smoky Hollow, the Main District at North Hills Street, and Fenton in Cary has climbed sharply.
The data also shows that these destinations attract a disproportionately high share of wealthy singles and one-person households – a demographic with strong discretionary spending power. Together, these trends point to a deepening base of urban, high-income consumers fueling growth in dining, retail, and entertainment – making Raleigh one of the country's most dynamic and opportunity-rich metro areas heading into 2026.
In the Southeast, Tampa is one of the nation’s standout metro areas heading into 2026. Strong fundamentals – such as no state income tax and expanding employment in sectors like technology, healthcare, and logistics – have attracted a significant influx of Gen Z and millennial residents. And although in-migration is beginning to slow somewhat, the city's expanding economy and youthful talent base continue to fuel growth across housing, retail, and dining.
And as more companies require employees to spend additional days in the office, YoY commuter traffic has increased across Tampa’s major cities. Leisure visits from non-residents are also on the rise, suggesting that retailers and dining chains seeking to capture this expanding market could benefit from growing their presence throughout the Tampa metro area.
Rising traffic across Tampa’s major urban areas appears to be translating into stronger dining activity as well. Over the past six months, average YoY visits to Tampa area full-service restaurants, coffee shops, and fast-casual chains have all exceeded the national average, which may reflect a broader acceleration in both local workforce and leisure-visitor demand.
1. Retail is deeply divided. Visits to value and luxury apparel segments grew YoY in 2025 while traffic to mid-tier retailers flagged.
2. Upscale dining momentum reflects similar bifurcation. More resilient, affluent consumers are bolstering fine-dining traffic.
3. Authenticity is key. Brands successfully executing on a clear sense of purpose – from community-driven grocers to bookstores – are driving consistent visit growth.
4. Online and offline retail are converging into a seamless ecosystem. As consumers seek online value and in-person convenience, AI fulfillment, dark stores, and local pickup are accelerating.
5. Digitally native brands expanding into physical retail are redefining omnichannel. These chains provide a blueprint for merging digital efficiency with personalized in-store experiences.
6. Traditionally urban brands are shifting to suburbia to capture new audiences. With consumers rooted in hybrid lifestyles and growing suburban demand, chains that adapt their footprints drive fresh traffic.
7. Expansion into college markets and celebrity pop-ups are helping retailers and malls connect with younger consumers. Brands that grew their footprints in college towns or on campuses increased their Gen Z traffic, as did malls that hosted celebrity or influencer activations.
Retail and dining faced another complex year in 2025. Persistent economic headwinds and uncertainty surrounding tariffs intensified consumers’ focus on value, even as affluent shoppers continued to indulge in luxury brands and upscale dining experiences.
Yet the year also revealed behavioral shifts that extended beyond price sensitivity. Shoppers increasingly prioritized brands that convey authenticity and a clear sense of purpose – those that deliver value not only through price, but through omnichannel convenience, product quality, and brand ethos.
For their part, retailers and malls continued to evolve, adopting strategies to capture both the expanding suburban market and a rising generation of younger consumers emerging as a defining force in retail.
How have these trends evolved, and how will they shape the retail landscape in 2026? We dove into the data to find out.
The first three quarters of 2025 underscored a widening divide in the apparel sector, with strength at both ends of the price and income spectrums.
Off-price retailers and thrift stores, which draw shoppers from lower- and middle-income trade areas, gained significant ground – reflecting consumers’ ongoing search for value and treasure-hunt experiences that feel both economical and rewarding. At the same time, luxury maintained modest growth, showing that high-income shoppers remain resilient and willing to spend on premium experiences. Meanwhile, traditional apparel and mid-tier department stores continued to see visit declines, signaling further pressure on the retail middle. Retailers such as Target and Kohl’s, traditional staples of this middle segment, are contending with the challenge of defining their identity to consumers in a market increasingly split between value and luxury.
Looking ahead to 2026, mid-tier retailers will need to navigate a complex and polarized landscape. Without the clear positioning enjoyed by value and luxury players, success will require sharper differentiation and disciplined execution. But though the middle remains a tough place to compete, it still holds potential: Brands that can redefine relevance – something many of these same chains achieved just a few years ago – stand to capture consumers with spending power.
A similar bifurcation dynamic is also unfolding in the dining sector.
Upscale full-service restaurants (FSRs) are outperforming their casual dining counterparts, as higher-income consumers – and those dining out for special occasions – seek elevated experiences at fine-dining chains.
At the same time, more cost-conscious diners are trading down from casual dining FSRs to fast-casual chains, which continue to outperform the casual dining segment. Fast-casual brands are also benefiting from trading up within the limited-service segment, as consumers who choose to eat out – rather than eat at home or grab a lower-cost prepared meal at a c-store or grocery – opt for more experiences that feel more premium yet remain accessible.
Across both retail and dining, bifurcation doesn’t tell the whole story. Even as spending concentrates at the high and low ends of the market, a growing number of brands are succeeding by delivering an experience that feels intentional, distinctive, and true to their identity. These concepts share a clear raison d’être – a sense of purpose that resonates with consumers – as well as successful execution. The data shows that brands providing this kind of “on-point” experience are driving consistent visit growth in 2025, signaling that authenticity may be important retail currency in 2026.
Trader Joe’s sustained momentum reflects its ability to make shopping feel like discovery. The chain’s locally-inspired assortments, roughly 80% private-label mix, and steady rotation of seasonal products keep visits fresh and engagement high.
Sprouts, for its part, continues to benefit from a sharpened identity centered on freshness, sustainability, and health. Its smaller-format stores, curated product mix, and messaging around healthy living have helped it build a loyal base of wellness‐oriented shoppers.
Meanwhile, Barnes & Noble’s transformation offers a compelling case study in the power of experience. Its strategy of empowering local managers to curate store selections and host community events has turned stores into cultural touchpoints – driving increased visits and dwell times.
All three brands derive their strength from their clarity of purpose – illustrating how authenticity and intentionality are becoming meaningful factors shaping consumer engagement.
Authenticity isn’t limited to national names. Regional players such as H-E-B and In-N-Out Burger demonstrate how deeply ingrained local identity can translate into sustained growth.
H-E-B’s community-driven ethos, local sourcing, and operational excellence have built trust across Texas markets, helping it remain one of the country’s most beloved grocery chains, with high rates of shoppers visiting multiple times a month. And in the quick-service category, California-native In-N-Out Burger stands out for its quality, nostalgia, and mystique, as the chain continues to attract visitation trends that exceed national QSR benchmarks.
These brands demonstrate that authenticity can have a local element. Their success reflects not just product strength or efficiency, but a deeper connection to the communities they serve.
While regional and experience-driven brands continue to build deep consumer connections, the broader retail landscape is also being reshaped by operational innovation. As technology and infrastructure improve, retailers are finding new ways to merge digital efficiency with convenient physical touchpoints.
E-commerce growth and in-store activity are increasingly interconnected. Visits to ecommerce distribution centers* climbed steadily between October 2021 and September 2025, while the share of short, under-10-minute trips to big-box chains Target, Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club also increased. Together, these patterns suggest that while online shopping continues to expand, consumers remain highly engaged with physical locations through buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) and same-day fulfillment channels – combining the value of online deals with the convenience of quick, local pickup.
This trend also reflects ongoing advancements in AI-driven fulfillment and Walmart’s testing of dark stores – retail spaces converted into local fulfillment hubs that accelerate delivery and enable quick customer pickup. These innovations are shortening fulfillment windows while optimizing store networks for hybrid demand.
As retailers continue to blur the boundaries between digital and physical commerce in 2026, expect them to become increasingly complementary parts of a single, omnichannel ecosystem.
*The Placer.ai E-commerce Distribution Center Index measures foot traffic across more than 400 distribution centers nationwide, including facilities operated by leading retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target. Designed as a barometer for U.S. e-commerce activity, the index captures two key audiences: employees, estimated through dwell-time patterns, and visitors, who often represent logistics partners delivering raw materials, moving in-process goods, or collecting finished products.
The resurgence of digitally native brands embracing physical retail underscores how online and offline strategies are converging into an integrated model, combining digital efficiency with the benefits of a physical presence.
Framebridge, a DTC custom framing brand, offers a clear example of this trend. As the brand has expanded its footprint, the average number of monthly visits to each of its locations rose sharply throughout 2025.
Framebridge’s success lies in its well-executed omnichannel model. Customers can place orders online or in store, with the option to ship directly to their homes or pick up in person.
But for Framebridge, physical locations aren’t just about convenience. Art and memories are often one of a kind, so having knowledgeable staff in store and the opportunity to engage with materials firsthand transforms a transaction into a personalized, consultative experience.
Framebridge exemplifies how digitally native brands are merging the ease of online shopping with physical spaces that provide a personal touch. And more digitally native brands, like Gymshark, are looking to bring their business offline with the hope of adding value for consumers.
As retailers advance their omnichannel strategies, another enduring shift is reshaping the retail map post-pandemic – the continued rise of suburban traffic. Brands that entered the pandemic with strong suburban footprints were among the first to benefit as in-person activity rebounded, while urban-focused chains that expanded outward have met migrating consumers and captured new audiences anchored in hybrid lifestyles and local shopping routines.
Large-format and drive-thru focused brands like Costco, Cava, and Dutch Bros. entered the pandemic era from a position of strength as they are traditionally situated in suburban and exurban areas. As consumers spent more time close to home and away from urban centers, these chains captured heightened local demand and saw visits rebound rapidly once in-person shopping resumed.
And as the pandemic reshaped consumer traffic patterns, brands like Shake Shack and Chipotle quickly recognized emerging opportunities in suburban markets and adjusted their strategies to capture this shifting demand. For Shake Shack – a brand once defined by its urban storefronts – the shift toward suburban drive-thrus and stand-alone locations represented a significant pivot. Chipotle followed a similar path, accelerating its suburban expansion through the rollout of “Chipotlane” drive-thru lanes.
Arriving somewhat later to the suburban landscape, sweetgreen, once synonymous with its urban footprint, opened its first drive-thru in 2022, and by 2024 had made suburban markets a core pillar of its growth strategy.
These real estate moves positioned all three brands to capture demand from remote and hybrid workers, helping sustain visit growth well above pre-pandemic baselines.
As suburban demand continues to grow, the suburbs will likely remain a critical growth frontier for many brands in the year ahead.
Investment in suburban markets underscores how changing market conditions and strategy adaptation can allow brands to meet consumers where they are. And a parallel trend is unfolding in college towns and youth-dense trade areas, where brands are channeling investment to capture rising Gen Z spending power.
Expansion in college-anchored markets, paired with celebrity and influencer-driven pop-ups, is helping retailers build cultural relevance and increase engagement with this emerging consumer base.
The graph below underscores how targeted expansion into college-anchored markets can meaningfully shift audience composition. Over the last several years, many brands have expanded their near-campus footprints – and in turn, attracted a higher share of the Spatial.ai:PersonaLive “Young Urban Singles” segment, one highly aligned with Gen Z consumers.
CAVA’s rapid unit growth, including openings near major universities and in college towns, helped the brand increase its share of “Young Urban Singles” within its captured trade areas between October 2018-September 2019 and October 2024-September 2025. Meanwhile, Panda Express and Raising Cane's, which already had relatively large shares of the segment six years ago, have also invested in college-adjacent locations, lifting their “Young Urban Singles” audience share.
Even legacy mass retailer Target benefited from small-format and large store expansions near universities – growing its captured market share of “Young Urban Singles”.
These shifts suggest that college towns will continue to be strategic growth markets, including for luxury brands like Hermès. By making inroads in college towns and with Gen Z shoppers, brands can strengthen loyalty early and build durable market share that remains as these young adults move on from campus life.
As Gen Z’s influence expands beyond campus borders, retail engagement is increasingly driven by cultural moments that resonate with this cohort. And malls are finding that temporary pop-ups including influencer collaborations and celebrity-led activations can attract these young consumers.
At The Grove, the Pandora pop-up with brand ambassador girl-group Katseye in October 2024 led to a modest but significant increase in the Gen Z-dominant “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” segments within the mall’s captured trade area during the first week of the activation – compared to the average for the last twelve months.
Similarly, at Westfield Century City, the Taylor Swift x TikTok activation from October 3rd-9th, 2025 – which allowed fans to immerse themselves in the sets from the viral “The Fate of Ophelia” music video boosted the shares of “Young Urban Singles” and Young Professionals”, underscoring the star power of everything Taylor Swift.
And at American Dream, the pattern extended beyond younger audiences. On September 5th and 6th, 2025, Ninja Kidz attended the grand opening of their Action Park while Salish Matters made an appearance at the mall on September 6th for her skincare pop-up – which drew such large crowds that it had to be shut down. During these two event days, the mall’s shares of both “Young Professionals” and “Ultra-Wealthy Families” increased substantially, highlighting that pop-up events can draw young and affluent family audiences.
Together, these examples reinforce that, in 2026, the integration of short-term pop-ups will continue to be a strategy for malls and individual brands to gain relevance for key demographic segments.
2025 reinforced that retail remains as dynamic as ever. Value continues to anchor decisions, but consumers are redefining what value means – blending price sensitivity with expectations for authenticity. And in the current retail landscape, online and physical retail are growing more interconnected as consumers demand convenience and experience.
In 2026, adaptability will be retailers’ greatest competitive edge. The next era of retail will belong to brands that can continue to refine their operating strategy – while staying true to a clear brand identity.
