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2021: Q1 Quarterly Index
It does appear like the Home Improvement and Home Goods surge is simply a never-ending phenomenon within the world of retail. After seeing consistent year-over-year growth throughout 2020, the sector kicked off 2021 with an even bigger year-over-year jump largely on the back of its success during non-peak periods. The results could be significant should the strength continue into the spring high season.
Analyzing dozens of brands including:
Visits Still Surging
The wider home improvement space saw an impressive jump in Q2 2020 and its ability to sustain that strength into late 2020 is even more notable. But the continuation of this trend even in the quarter just before the normal seasonal peak is truly exceptional. The impact for the brands in the sector could be tremendous should the trend sustain.
Return from the Peak
In some cases, a negative statistic can actually emphasize success. The home improvement sector saw a 7% decline QoQ in visits, continuing a trend of decline since Q2. This further establishes how strong the sector has been during its off-peak period, setting up leading brands for a very valuable Q2.
Regressing Kings? (Not Quite)
While visits continued to drop QoQ for many top players, the declines were more than compensated for by tremendous year-over-year growth. Incredibly, the decrease may actually indicate that the normal Q2 surge is still destined to take place, even with the strong growth already seen. This is especially likely should home furnishing brands continue to see success.
Brands to Watch
Although home improvement leaders like Home Depot and Lowe’s received much of the praise in the early stages of the pandemic, other brands have achieved similar levels of growth. Tractor Supply saw massive year-over-year growth, as did At Home and Harbor Freight. But perhaps most impressively, it appears that visit growth to HomeGoods is actually picking up pace as quarter-over-quarter declines were limited even when compared to the peak holiday season.
The wider home improvement and home goods sector has been among the clear retail winners throughout the pandemic. Yet, big questions remain ahead of the sector’s annual spring peak as last year’s impressive performances will serve as a benchmark for understanding their current strength. And while it will be very difficult to match those levels, several players in the space look poised to achieve even greater heights.
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